9.26.2008

On the Road: Omaha, Nebraska

“In no time at all we were back on the main highway and that night I saw the entire state of Nebraska unroll before my eyes. A hundred and ten miles an hour straight through, an arrow road, sleeping towns, no traffic, and the Union Pacific streamliner falling behind us in the moonlight. I wasn’t frightened at all that night; it was perfectly legitimate to go 110 and talk and have all the Nebraska towns – Ogallalla, Gothernburg, Kearney, Grand Island, Columbus, unreel with dreamlike rapidity as we roared ahead and talked.”

– Jack Kerouac, “On the Road”

Soy Beans - BrettMarty.com


This past weekend in Omaha, Republicans knocked on 11,000 doors. Two weeks ago when Barack Obama's permanent office opened, 1,100 volunteers showed up for the office opening. Eleven hundred people. "We essentially shut down midtown," said John Berge, Obama's Nebraska State Director. Omaha -- land of one precious electoral vote -- is not being conceded.

John Kerry lost Douglas County (where Omaha sits) by roughly 37,500 votes, and by 18%. Of course, Kerry did not work the area. Obama has 15 staff and 10 field organizers in the diverse district. In red Nebraska, which has not given an electoral vote to a Democrat in four decades, Obama has an uphill task. As has been standard in our office-to-office experience, there is much more activity going on in Obama offices than the McCain/Republican offices. As Election Day draws nearer, we expect this differential to narrow.

If Theresa Herring has her way, Omaha and Nebraska will stay in the Republican column. Herring, a volunteer for the Republican Party, is like many Republican volunteers we've met, a conscientious self-starter. Nobody called her to volunteer, she just felt it was her obligation to be active if she believed John McCain should be elected. A transplant from Louisiana, Herring simply looked up the local McCain/Republican office in the phone book and got involved. She knocked on some of those 11,000 doors (and 30,000 statewide). Omaha Republicans are a legitimate ground force.

The McCain/Johanns office is two doors down from Scott Kleeb's Senate campaign office in Omaha (see one of Brett's photos). But the campaigns here, as they seem to be all over, are courteous with each other. Kleeb has a steep task ahead of him to win the open US Senate seat. His name recognition in Omaha is still very low, given that his 2006 run came in the western 3/4 of the state, the 3d district. Moreover, Johanns is popular as a two-term ex-governor who left office for George Bush's cabinet in 2005. Nebraska, of course, is one of those states where a small investment can go a long way. Kleeb's staff knows they need a big win in Omaha to win the state, and the big problem is name recognition and DSCC funding. In that race, look over the next couple weeks to see if any polls show the race in single digits. If that happens, the cheap return-on-investment factor may kick in.



In the presidential race, one key factor to watch is, again, the Voter Protection efforts. Early voting opens in Nebraska on Monday, September 29th, and goes all the way through the day before Election Day. That's the good news for Barack Obama's early voting-focused ground game. The bad news is that the lone early voting location as of now is located in a remote area far from Obama's base.

Issues like the printing of enough ballots are still being negotiated -- will the 105% of ballots be based on registration as of the February 9 caucus date or as of a date in October? The answer to that question will affect Democratic fortunes here dramatically. We got the sense that while negotiations were difficult, the fact that they were happening far upstream from November 4 meant that Barack Obama's campaign has learned from past campaigns that it's better to be in front of a judge seeking a court order, if necessary, in mid-October rather than 4pm on Election Day.

Tall Grass - BrettMarty.com

*_*

An update on Colorado we'd be remiss without noting. Yesterday morning, the Denver Post reported on the shrinking gap in mail-in ballots between Democrats and Republicans. Key graf:
Republican strategist Sean Tonner said he was "disconcerted" by the latest ballot request tally because the GOP usually has a bigger edge going into Election Day. ... "The numbers clearly demonstrate that Democrats have made a significant push on getting their votes in early and capitalizing on the Obama enthusiasm," Tonner said. "We have our work ahead of us."
It's worth a full read.

With so much driving in our trip, we're physically a little ahead of our reporting. We should note that we've been in McCain offices in Omaha, Des Moines and Missouri since John McCain "suspended" his campaign, and they're all open and working.

We've got on deck an Iowa on-the-road focusing on the opening of early voting yesterday morning, but we're in the car to Mississippi for our on-scene liveblog of the first presidential debate from Oxford. Thanks to everyone for their patience.

334 comments

Jesse said...

Nate missed a ton of polls last night!


AR Rasmussen
Obama 42%
McCain 51%

CA SurveyUSA
Obama 53%
McCain 43%

MA Rasmussen
Obama 58%
McCain 38%

MI Selzer
Obama 51%
McCain 38%

MI Strategic Vision
Obama 48%
McCain 45%

MO SurveyUSA
Obama 46%
McCain 48%

NH Research 2000
Obama 48%
McCain 44%

NH Strategic Vision
Obama 46%
McCain 45%

OH Rasmussen
Obama 46%
McCain 47%

OR Research 2000
Obama 53%
McCain 39%

PA Rasmussen
Obama 49%
McCain 45%

WV Rasmussen
Obama 42%
McCain 50%



OR Research 2000
Merkley 45%
Smith 40%

Mazza said...

OT: apparently the debate is back on. McCain got punked in all this.

Marie said...

MI Selzer
Obama 51%
McCain 38%

I know it's been said that Selzer is most accurate even when its results don't jive with other polling agencies' predictions, but this one just seems to have such a monumental gap...I've having a hard time swallowing a 13-point spread in the state. Even if it can be argued that MI leans Obama (which I am still a bit skeptical of), that's an enormous margin. Almost as much as Massachusetts!

On another note: I am so envious of Nate + Sean's on-the-road reporting work. Probably one of the most exciting experiences you could have this electional cycle short of campaigning or running yourself!

Eric said...

Omaha's probably not flippable right? I mean the Reps will be more enthused than normal because they know their vote will count. I don't see it flipping.

dpldust said...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/images/26Sep_Friday_WSJ.JPG

McCain produced and has ads on-line already showing He Won the Debate - No- this was not a political move.

Even Huckabee thinks McCain has lost his mind.

Real Joe said...

Debate @ 8 P.M ET ? or 9 P.M ET ?

Real Joe said...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/images/26Sep_Friday_WSJ.JPG

WHO DID THIS ? grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr..........

Liberal hacks

Ben said...

Hahaha, I love how McCain is already running ads claiming that he won the debate... before he has even decided to join the debate?!?!

Way to go, Honest John.

Eric said...

McCain can't attempt to sell this new proposal from the House Republicans. Here's why. Congress has to get something in place befroe Monday. no, ifs, ands, or buts. The best the House RPeublicans can hope for is to compromise or just not sign on and say they stood up for their constituents. Their idea will not pass muster w/ Paulson, Prez, or Dems. The $700 BB bailout has the votes, the Dems just want the House Reps approval, so it appears bipartisan. If they don't get it a bill will pass anyway. The votes are there for it. The Demswould prefer the HOuse Reps sign on so the Republicans can't say that the Dems pushed through a bill with the Prez that they didn't like. Politically that could be a positive for the Republicans. In the end, this is too important to not do anything. Monday morning is D-Day for it, so something will be in place before then. That something will not be some totally new idea from the House Republicans. Even if it were a good idea, which it's not, it would take a while to gain the votes on, we don't have a while.

Litejedi said...

I don't normally look at mydd, but I got linked to an image they found on McCain's website.

Why should he participate in the debate? He already won it.
http://www.mydd.com/images/admin/mcain_debate.gif

Awesome.

such sweet thunder said...

Wait, Iowa and MS aren't close to each other. How did that happen?

Just John said...

Group question (since Sean raised it in subtle fashion):

What did McCain do differently after "suspending" his campaign?

I mean, besides skip Letterman.

p smith said...

McCain has been humiliated. He has just decided that he will attend the debate even though he had said he would not attend if there was no deal. He has also decided to resume campaign activities even though he never actually stopped.

His pathetic and disgraceful gambit has been an unmitigated failure.

Now all we need is for Obama to smack him out of the park tonight. McCain is going to come hard accusing Obama of playing politics with this but Obama has to be ready to be hard back. Tonight is not the time for pussy footing around. Tonight Obama must call McCain out for the opportunist stunt pulling disgrace that he is.

I am fully expecting to see an underprepared tired and angry McCain tonight. There is every chance he will blow. Obama needs to attack his integrity and honesty and accuse him of being prepared to destroy the economy to win an election.

dpldust said...

Ras has O+5 at 50%

What happened to Country First? There is no deal, there is no framework ...oh ...JM injected politics into the deal and blew up agreement between the Pres, the Rep and Dem Senate and the Dem House. Only 5 Rep House members did not want this deal done 0 they wanted - GET THIS - A CAPITAL GAINS TAX CUT.

McCain gets to DC 24 hours after suspending his campain and making 3 campaign stops, Couric, Clinton and Lady Rothschild to do some fundraising. Blows up the existing deal and then goes home without retuning to the house chambers, and has his campaign produce new ads saying HE WON THE DEBATE.

UN-FREAKIN BELIEVEABLE

McCain/Palin - Because we didn't have enough drama queens in high school

Marie said...

Just John - Follow-up questions?

1. What happened to McCain's fundraising during that time?

2. Is the campaign back on? Or what? Will McCain's participation in the debate signal that the campaign is back on or will he continue to wait for a formal resolution of the financial crisis in Washington?

Darío said...

From Rasmussen:

48% of voters disagree with McCain for refuse the debate.

PorridgeGun said...

Apart from the ditto-heads, I think I speak for everyone when I say... JOHN MCCAIN IS THE BIGGEST DICKHEAD TO EVER RUN FOR PRESIDENT.



Any objections?

Eric said...

So let me see ifI have this right,

Mike Huckabee thinks McCain is being foolish

George Will thinks McCain lacks a lot of things necessary to be a decent PRez.

Ben Stein thinks Obama's right about the economy, not McCain.

Warren Buffet, Bill Gates, David Letterman, and Oprah Winfrey are all in the tank for Obama.

CNN, NBC, ABC, CBS, NY Times like Obama.

Even the WSJ has lost their McCain bias and is starting to call him out.

McCain has Stephen Baldwin, FOX News, Elisabeth Hasselbeck and Jessica Simpson on his side.

Just John said...

And missed in this whole shitstorm of a week, that priceless Couric-Palin chat that exposes the Alaska governor as inadequate to hold nationwide office. Not a coincidence that such a low moment for the campaign got buried.

dpldust said...

*****BREAKING NEWS ON FOX NEWS******


http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/09/26/huckabee-calls-mccain-debate-ploy-a-huge-mistake/

Huckabee thinks McCain has lost his mind. Seems to be a prevailing Rep theme this week.

Real Joe said...

Huckabee don't speak like that

McCain is a Maverick

tero said...

So now Mac has to start defending North Carolina, Montana, Nebraska, etc. for real. And Obama can widen the battlefield instead of accepting it is narrowing.

Mac is gonna start throwing bombs now even more frantically... gonna be the ugliest October in living memory. He needs to dive all the way into the gutter. And he will. There won't be a shred of his old reputation left by December.

dpldust said...

Pooridge -No that would be Dick Cheney - he ran Bush regardless of what the ballot said. In the immortal words of Fat Mike. "...he loves Dick but hates homosexuals..."

Political Realm said...

I was excited to see the huge turnout for the office opening a few weeks ago, but it hardly "shutdown midtown."

Still, that office is often packed with callers and I'm optimistic. We've been canvassing for weeks and if the national campaign keeps resources here through November, it could be interesting.

FYI: I'm saying that as somebody who lives in Omaha and has volunteered a few times.

Joe Thomas said...

Well damn, I was hoping to catch sight of you all in Missouri, but sounds like you've already been through. I was all ready to get my 8x10 glossy poll results autographed, too.

Derek said...

If John McCain is the only reason anything ever gets done in congress and they are incapable of acting without his presence, then maybe he shouldn't be running for president and stay in the congress because apparently they are useless without him. What a joke! I'm so sick of his bullshit. To think I atually used to like McCain and would have voted for him if Hillary ahd gotten it. PSHT, not anymore, I don't car eif he was running against Bush I'd probbly vote for Bush

Cugel said...

I'm just stunned at the scope of the McCain meltdown, and clearly Scott Rasmussen is too, as Obama surges to +5 in the daily tracker, 1% lower than his highest ever:

"It’s stunning to note how rapidly the dynamics of the campaign have changed. Two weeks ago, just before the Wall Street financial crunch became visible, McCain was up by three points in the aftermath of his convention. One week ago today, the candidates were even. Now, Obama’s lead is approaching new highs entering the final few weeks of the campaign.

Obama now leads by five among unaffiliated voters. Last week, the unaffiliated voters were leaning in McCain’s direction.

For most of Election 2008, McCain has attracted more support from Democrats than Obama earned from Republicans. That is no longer the case. Each man now attracts 12% of voters from the other political party.

McCain’s lead among white women is down to two-percentage points. This is a segment of the population that George W. Bush carried by eleven points four years ago."


12% of Republicans supporting Obama? My God! That's HUGE! Remember that in the final weeks of the campaign, Rasmussen's Likely Voter screen gets tighter. In 2004 he did a pretty good job of predicting who the likely voters will be.

This year, any likely voter error can only favor Obama, since the possible "unlikely" voters are minorities and the under-30's, who are Obama's core supporters.

If he's leading anyway even in Rasmussen's polling, which has a 2% Republican house lean, then the real Obama margin is something like 7%, which is more like the DailyKOS/Research 2000 result.

Unless McCain can force the Congress to pass HIS version of the bailout, over the objections of President Bush, both parties in the Senate, and House Democrats, he's TOAST!

Utterly destroyed.

Those who said this race is shaping up like 1980, with the election breaking late for the change candidate will be vindicated, and Obama will win in a landslide if this continues!

McCain has to hit a home run in the debate tonight. A draw won't do it anymore.

Congress is saying that THREE QUARTERS Of the parties are in agreement with the President on a bailout bill, the only holdup is rebelling House Republicans. But, Bush and the Senate are now saying that there WILL be a bill and that the bill WILL be in line with what the Treasury Secretary is requesting, not the bill that McCain and House Republicans are pushing.

Check and Mate!

dominoid73 said...

Rasmussen Virginia
Obama - 50
McCain - 45

It WAS M+2 on Monday

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/virginia/election_2008_virginia_presidential_election

Real Joe said...

guys when is the debate ?

Debate @ 8 P.M ET ? or 9 P.M ET ?

Thomas said...

The perfect Obama ad would be just a simple timeline from when Obama called McCain to offer the bipartisan resolution until now with some quotes from McCain about not leaving until a deal is done, and some Republican quotes about his lack of involvement in the two or three hours he was actually doing anything remotely related to this.

So Wednesday
Obama offers deal
John McCain opts out of campaign and says he wont debate until deal is done
John McCain appears with Couric

Thursday
John McCain talks at Clinton think (show damaging clip of hip politicking)
John McCain fundraises with Rothschild
Quotes about deal being basically done
John McCain FINALLY shows up in DC to meet with Barack, congressional leadership and the president
(Quote from Repub about him doing nothing and deal falling apart)
John McCain leaves for Mississippi with no deal being reached

And the a tag line about who is really putting country first

Charles M. Kozierok said...

So everyone is wondering -- why is McCain acting like this?

The answer is simple: he has lost his marbles. The guy has seemed confused more and more as the campaign has continued and now the pressure has gotten the best of him.

We need to see his medical records. NOW.

dominoid73 said...

Debate is at 9PM Eastern.

Real Joe said...

VA fake liberal poll...LOL

Mccain will win VA by 30 points

McCain Surge continues...

McCain Landslide !!!

OTF said...
This post has been removed by the author.
James said...

@Eric

I bet the increased enthusiasm cuts both ways. Democrats in Omaha are going to be just as excited about their votes potentially making a difference in this presidential election as republicans. I'm not saying Omaha will flip, though I think it's quite possible if we end up with an Obama landslide, but I think the enthusiasm issue is a wash.

Real Joe said...

thanks dominoid73

i will be switching in

i have cable thank god

dominoid73 said...

From Rasmussen's Virginia text:

"McCain’s support from Republicans has slipped from 90% last week to 86% in the current survey. His 13-point advantage among unaffiliated voters in the earlier survey has vanished, with the two candidates essentially even among those voters now. Obama draws support from 92% of Democrats"

Charles M. Kozierok said...

"VA fake liberal poll...LOL

Mccain will win VA by 30 points

McCain Surge continues...

McCain Landslide !!!"

This spam stopped being amusing about 500 cut-and-pastes ago. Give it a rest already.

Andrew said...

Usually spoofs annoy me, but I gotta say...

Real Joe cracks me up.

Darío said...

Wow +5 in Virginia!!

OTF said...

So, Obama has field operations in Neb going after that 1 EC vote b/c he has zero chance of winning the state. Obama was thinking ahead for a close election where it might be 269-269 and it could be 270 in his favor if he pulls the 1 EC vote from Neb. Since Neb is relatively cheap to advertise it's a good move, but it seems very unlikely now that the scenario where that 1 EC vote would be the difference. The 1 EC vote in Neb would be a nice feather in his cap anyway, but he's not going to need it to win.

Cugel said...

BTW: I should add that Bush carried the white vote by 17%, yet only won by 2.45, and that was BEFORE the massive mobilization of non-white voters by Obama.

The non-white vote is expected to be 27% or more this year, as the white vote continues it's inevitable decline: from 83% in 1996, to 81% in 2000, to 77% in 2004, to perhaps 73% or even 72% this year.

If Scott Rasmussen is right in his latest polling and 12% of Republicans are supporting Obama, that's just the death knell of the McCain campaign.

Bush got 94% of Republicans. Around 1% of Republicans will vote for third-parties. This would mean, if continued to election day, that McCain could get no better than 87% of Republicans -- 6% fewer than Bush did.

When you consider that there are around 4-5% fewer Republicans in 2004 than in 2008 (33% as opposed to 37% in 2004) according to Scott Rasmussen's constant polling, that's utterly fatal.

Unless McCain turns this dynamic around very quickly, he's going to be destroyed, not just defeated. Because those numbers point to a 5-10% win for Obama, and 330+ electoral votes.

Chun said...

What are the odds that McCain loses his temper when he gets hammered about failing to "save" the "economy and still showing his sorry-ass face at the debates.

The Real Mike Is Back said...

Nope, it goes down to Nate's point about doubling down. Expectations are that tonight's debate determines the winner. McCain has concluded that Obama can't beat him tonight (as we now see from the pictures). McCain has concluded that Obama is more likely to make the gaffe or come up with a clutch performance. Team McCain has bet it on everything tonight. Because of the likelihood of the events above, there is a strong likelihood the momentum will shift back to McCain.

Throw in the facts that some people won't vote for a black man, the voter suppression, and the operating assumption that Obama can't or won't come back, and McCain has gained about a 2 point victory in 40 days.

Poker is the oldest and most American game in the books.

mark said...

holy shit, 5 points ahead in VA
and that's a FOX NEWS POLL

WOW

Phil James said...

Great stuff, Sean.

Be sure to quote Kerouac's assessment of Iowa Women:

Carlo Marx was already in Denver; Dean was there; Chad King and Tim Gray were there, it was their hometown; Marylou was there; and there was mention of a mighty gang including Ray Rawlins and his beautiful blond sister Babe Rawlins; two waitresses Dean knew, the Bettencourt sisters; and even Roland Major, my old college writing buddy, was there. I looked forward to all of them with joy and anticipation. So I rushed .past the pretty girls, and the prettiest girls in the world live in Des Moines.

Charles M. Kozierok said...

"Unless McCain turns this dynamic around very quickly, he's going to be destroyed, not just defeated. Because those numbers point to a 5-10% win for Obama, and 330+ electoral votes."

Playing devil's advocate, the one thing in his favor is that his sheer idiocy this week has really lowered expectations for him for the debate.

Sad that 40% of the country think that we should elect a president who can only succeed via low expectations, but whatever.

Danish said...

This is my first post, but i am just here to say:

OBAMA + 5 in Virginia

bye bye McCain

stayathomedad said...

Hey Brett,
Could you have gotten one shot of Omaha's downtown? I mean the city struggles with their identity as it is, and all your shots (beautiful as they are) of corn and wheat and radial irrigators are a bit counterproductive.

quantman said...

The Navy Pilot and POW GAMBLER caved and turned in his losing hand!!!

*** First McCain says he would fire the SEC head, who legally CANNOT be fired by any President!

*** Next McCain says he would suspend his campaign---Less than 36 later and NO BAILOUT deal, now McCain says he is resuming his campaign FULLY!!

*** Less than 36 hrs ago, McCain says he will not go to Ole Miss for the debate, and NOW he says he is GOING, with NO bailout deal even CLOSE!

Less than 36 hrs ago, McCain said he was doing this to help get a bailout happen and THUS put Country First!

Now, he chucked all that OUT the window, and McCain has NOW decided to put HIS CAMPAIGN FIRST. Go McCain!!!

Real Joe said...

Obama may loose his temper

nobody likes angry people

as i have said many times

this election is over

liberal hippies are dreaming about an Obama win...LOL

say it with me

President McCain !!

Charles M. Kozierok said...

"What are the odds that McCain loses his temper when he gets hammered about failing to "save" the "economy and still showing his sorry-ass face at the debates."

The odds of this happening in a way that doesn't make Obama look even worse are low, unless Obama is *far* more skillful than anyone gives him credit for.

Andrew said...

@Real Mike

"McCain has concluded that Obama can't beat him tonight (as we now see from the pictures)..."

Surely you meant:

"McCain has concluded that he can't beat Obama tonight (as we now see from the pictures)..."

Real Joe said...



danish said...
This is my first post, but i am just here to say:

OBAMA + 5 in Virginia

bye bye McCain



another liberal hippie..LOL

young man keep playing the play station or what ever you punks call it now

Andrew said...

"The odds of this happening in a way that doesn't make Obama look even worse are low"

Unless the hammering comes from Lehrer, instead of Obama.

Nicholas said...

I'm not sure if McCain is crashing and burning in front of our eyes, or the race is just returning to its natural state, after being distracted a bit by the GOP Convention and the Palin pick.

The Palin pick, however, is definitely crashing and burning.

I thought the "Sarah Quaylin" stuff was ridiculous, as I thought she was inexperienced, but sharp (hence all the buzz this year before she was selected as being the future of the GOP, along with Jindal). Instead, she seems like a kooky, extremist, incurious about the world, and not very bright.

Plus she's full of scandals, lies, and inexperience.

What a disaster.

OTF said...

Stayathomedad,

There are a couple of good golf courses too that I have played.

Deadpixel said...

Personally, I love Joe Cola. In fact I'm drinking it right now!

*burp*

MCCAIN LANDSLIDE!

Shit, the drink made me say that!

The Real Mike Is Back said...

Sorry, Andrew. I meant what I said. Senator McCain has already concluded that Senator Obama cannot beat him tonight. The pictures/Chris Cilizza/Washington Post say "MCCAIN WINS DEBATE!"

Team McCain has concluded that Senator Obama cannot say or do anything to win the expectations game. Given his performance of the last three days in Washington and how "real Americans hate the bailout", the point will be hammered home tonight by Senator McCain. That will be enough to spin expectations on who wins the debate.

It's all happening right now. I feel like I'm watching a car crash before it happens. As John Blutarsky once said "I advise you to start drinking heavily."

Jen said...

If McCain really is already putting ads up saying he "won" the debate, his campaign is even more ineffectual than anyone could have realized. This does not bode well for the country should he win. Luckily, the way McCain is running his campaign looks like this will not happen.

Is it just me or is McCain acting like a 3 year old with ADD? He seems to be acting/saying "Hey, look at me! I am going to save the bailout. Why are you looking at Obama? I am the 'maverick'. Hey look at me, please!"

Who calls themself a maverick? John McCain is more me-vrick than mavrick.

I read on a comment on an earlier thread that McCain was practicing debating with a black politician from Maryland? I would assume Michael Steele since he is a black Republican from there. Why does who he practice with have to be black? I find this very odd, almost as if he had to adjust to be around a black person. There just seems to be something a little off about it. Anyone have any thoughts about?

AnotherMike said...

Huckabee thinks McCain has lost his mind. Seems to be a prevailing Rep theme this week.

McCain pissed off the other VP contenders when he chose the unqualified and unvetted Palin on a whim. Huckabee and Romney are already looking to 2012 and won't carry McCain's water anymore. Huckabee in particular is probably threatened by Palin's emergence and needs McCain to fail to have a chance at the presidency himself.

Steve said...

This just in:

Henry Paulson and Congressional Republicans have decided to suspend their attempts to get a banking bill passed in order to work on a bailout of the John McCain campaign.

"The ramifications of the potential disaster of unprecedented proportions that the McCain campaign has become will be far-reaching, and most importantly, cost me my job", Paulson told the assembled media. "McCain is too big to fail," he added, and he and the Congressional Republicans have vowed to put the economic crisis on hold until McCain regains his lead in the polls.

Charles M. Kozierok said...

Real Mike, I'm not following you at all. What is it you think McCain is going to do that will win the debate? Just keep harping about his grand bailout plan savior schtick?

Andrew said...

"The pictures/Chris Cilizza/Washington Post say "MCCAIN WINS DEBATE!""

And you interpret this as a sign of confidence on the part of the McCain campaign???

Of course the expectations game is key but if anything, McCain has increased expectations on himself due to his shenanigans this week.

quantman said...

Next AD Should be

McCain was FOR the debate, before he was AGAINST it, and now is FOR it again!

McCain was for the Treasury Secy Paulson's Plan, before he was against it, and NOW NOBODY KNOWS if he is FOR OR AGAINST it!!

Do any of the Republicans on this Board know??

Pray tell us, ye Bush/Cheney/McCain Republicans

Eric said...

So let me see if I have this right. McCain's people are going to claim that he's the reason something gets done. Are you friggin' kidding me?! Every economic analyst has said since last Monday or so that we have to get something done ASAP, no later than the end of this week or the shit's going to hit the fan. McCain knows nothing about the economy. There were enough votes to get it passed before he came. SOmehow the American public is going to give him props for this. Why? WTF So stupid. If this country doesn't have the wool pulled over their eyes for once I will be impressed and have restored faith, otherwise I don't know what to think. You all realize McCain knows much less about economic matters than most of us do.

tero said...

The debate is no longer the focus here - the focus is Mac's personal drama. I have a hard time believing the debate performance can overshadow what happened before the debate.

Obama needs to just keep his head down and run out the clock. Mac needs to take chances and flail around - increasing the likelihood of flubs.

PMOC said...

Lots of cognitive dissonance from Scotty Ras...

"Friday, September 26, 2008 Email to a Friend
The race for Florida’s Electoral College votes is closer now than it was just a few days ago. Consistent with a pattern found in national polls and in several other state polls, John McCain has lost ground in the Sunshine State, but support for Barack Obama hasn’t increased.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds McCain on top 48% to 47% (see crosstabs). The previous poll, conducted Sunday night, showed McCain on top 51% to 46%.

Both candidates are now viewed favorably by 55% of Florida voters. That’s unchanged for McCain but a five-point improvement for Obama. "


I like how he claims Obama's support has not increased and then immediately states that he gained a point from yesterdays results while his favorability gained 5 points. Huh?

Continue to Spread the Word!!! said...

RASMUSSEN WAS DEAD ON IN 2004... STOP CALLING HIM BIASED!

quantman said...

Eric,

You seem to forget that McCain learned all his economics from the ONLY private sector job he held in his ENTIRE LIFE:

*** Head of Public Relations for the largest beer distributor franchise owned by his father in-law (and that ONLY after the marriage).

Wanna guess what McCain's ONLY private sector JOB entailed as head for PR for a beer distributor??

Think about that and you will get an idea for how much McCain knows about economics!

soozzie said...

Did anyone else happen to catch Dana Perino's answer this morning to the question as to whether the presidential candidates were asked to Washington to meet with the President at Senator McCain's request?

"Yes."

eve said...

The pictures of the volunteers warm my heart. For one thing, I like that they show that the enthusiasm for Obama is not limited to the young.

Eric said...

quantman said... PR for Beer/McCAin

Enlighten me. Are we talking Aaron Eckhart in Thank you for Smoking?

Above my Paygrade said...

I really thought McCain would help the House Repubs get closer to a deal. OK I agree now it was all just showmanship. The Dems are scared of passing the bailout even though they have the numbers right now to do so. What is the hold up? My understanding is that less than 1/3 of the house is holding back and will vote no right now. Dems scared of their own plan? Just pass the thing and lets move on. Tell Mr. Reid that if its the right thing to do set the vote up and make it happen. Cram it down the repubs throat. If its the wrong thing to do get to the drawing board. This is retarded. If you have the votes and you believe you are right pass the thing. Quit playing politics with our future, you are just as guilty as McCain in the political game.

They are saying, we won't vote for the right bill unless those who want to vote against it will vote for it, even though we currently have a clear majority. Its bullshit.

Eric said...

House Republicans pretend McCain helped them get on board. Think about how stupid that sounds. It's as absurd as Bill saying I did not have sexual relations with that woman. McCain knows nothing about economics, has no idea what's going on with the bill, and isn't even in the House.

Joey said...

"So let me see if I have this right. McCain's people are going to claim that he's the reason something gets done. Are you friggin' kidding me?!"

Especially since he showed up to that meeting yesterday and did NOTHING, said NOTHING, and people were begging him to go home!

Above my Paygrade said...

McCain needs to memorize the line, "Thats a nice speech Mr. Obama, let me tell you what the truth is." And use it everytime Mr. Obama has to be cut off for going over the time limits. Obama cannot get a thought or argument out in the time alloted. It should be fun.

Eric said...

McCain might have to flip the script tonight. Obama's way ahead. If McCain inches back slowly to Nov 4th and gets this thing virtually tied, he might lose Virginia in the early voting before Nov 4th. That could be the difference.

Just John said...

Seriously, we'll remember this election fondly when we're all 72.

In the last 48 hours:

$700B Bailout requested;
Bailout agreed to in principle;
Bailout on the ropes:
Bailout in limbo;
Wash. Mutual fails;
McCain "suspends" campaign;
Palin makes an ass of herself;
Polls shift heavily to Obama;
Debate on again, off again;
Sitting senator on trial;

And in other news, oh yeah, by the way, scientists figured out how to MAKE stem cells, German police arrested two terrorist suspects on ON A PLANE, Google began taking over MORE of the world via its new phone, and somewhere, a firefighter is rescuing a kitten stuck in a tree.

Wowsers.

Congratulations to President-Elect McCain!!! said...

Today's FLIPFLOP on the debates is FANTASTIC NEWS!!! For John McCain!!!

Subterranean said...

Juggle, Wall St. and Washington, JUGGLE! Keep those balls a'flying until October 4th. That is all the country needs of you---EIGHT DAYS OF NO ECONOMIC COLLAPSE.

Please.

Eric said...

Boxing match. McCain has to win tonight 10-8. It's possible. The Rick Warren debate he did it. But, it's a must I think. Tie goes to Obama, 10-9 Obama or worse, Game over. 10-9 McCain, Obama stays ahead.

Chun said...

"Today's FLIPFLOP on the debates is FANTASTIC NEWS!!! For John McCain!!!"

LOL Best one yet.

Matt W said...

Above my...,
You are an idiot! This is not the DEMS plan this is the BUSH administrations plan! The DEMS are trying to make it better and get it passed because they are concerned about the situation even though the public is opposed. The Republicans in the house are more concerned about their own damn reelections then they are about saving the economy. Why should the DEMS pass this w/o the repubs??? This is a politically toxic bill that is neccesary because of republican idiocy and DEMS are willing to make a sacrifice to help solve but it is arrogant to think they should do it alone while the repubs seek political cover.

joel said...

Anyone think McCain will blow tonight? His back is against the wall. I figure he will act passive like he is on valium or will blow like a volcano.
I don`t think he can have a civil debate on an intellectual level with Obama.
I really think he is suffering from some sort of health issue or at his age he can`t keep up with the rigors of a campaign.
All I know you will see a vibrant young man up on the podium against an old one who looks every day his age.I am going for the blowup!

Charles M. Kozierok said...

"I really thought McCain would help the House Repubs get closer to a deal. OK I agree now it was all just showmanship."

Well, nice of you to admit that.

"The Dems are scared of passing the bailout even though they have the numbers right now to do so. What is the hold up?"

The hold up is your candidate's showmanship. Duh.

"Dems scared of their own plan?"

No, fuckhead, they just don't want to play into McCain's and the GOP's selfish campaign tactics.

"This is retarded."

Says the guy who actually fell for the most obvious of McCain's many lies.

"Quit playing politics with our future, you are just as guilty as McCain in the political game."

No, you piece of shit, they are not.

McCain and the House GOP is responsible for this mess because they want to oppose this bailout to save their political hides.

Mazza said...

eric - Rick Warren's show wasn't a debate.

And McCain knew what he'd be asked in advance. Here, he can only guess.

Wanna wager how many times McCain says "My Friends" tonight?

InkStain said...

Again, Rasmussen isn't using the same model as they did in 2004 to nail the election.

And "bias" doesn't mean preference. It means the model they use produces results more Republican-leaning than the average results. No matter what sampling mechanism you use, you will insert some bias.

"And in other news, oh yeah, by the way, scientists figured out how to MAKE stem cells, German police arrested two terrorist suspects on ON A PLANE, Google began taking over MORE of the world via its new phone, and somewhere, a firefighter is rescuing a kitten stuck in a tree."

The largest bank failure in U.S. history and a firefight between U.S. and Pakistani troops not making the list? :)

Cugel said...

"Charles M. Kozierok said...

"Unless McCain turns this dynamic around very quickly, he's going to be destroyed, not just defeated. Because those numbers point to a 5-10% win for Obama, and 330+ electoral votes."

Playing devil's advocate, the one thing in his favor is that his sheer idiocy this week has really lowered expectations for him for the debate.

Sad that 40% of the country think that we should elect a president who can only succeed via low expectations, but whatever."


Charles, you ought to know better. Reality was always that McCain was sailing into a stiff headwind. The economy, Bush, the war, the historic nature of Obama's candidacy mobilizing non-whites who traditionally haven't voted in the same numbers as whites, etc.

The only question was whether McCain could bluff his way through an entire campaign composed of fluff and lying attack ads about what a horrible risk it was to elect a "BLAAAACK!"

Well, economic meltdown makes all that irrelevant. How important does being able to skin a moose look now? Does anybody really want a soccer-mom in the White House any more? How about we get the best economic experts and the smartest President we can find!

That's the only thing that's going to save us at this point. And who really thinks McCain is the economic genius candidate?

Does being a POW 35 years ago sound like what we need now? Who cares? What are you going to do now to fix the economic crisis.

McCain is gambling EVERYTHING, not on the debate tonight which he wanted desperately to postpone, but on being able to use right-wing House Republicans to strong-arm Congress into passing something he can call "the McCain plan."

If he's able to do that, then fine. He wins. But 3/4 of the Congress is opposed and Bush isn't happy about it.

Congressional Democrats will ultimate fold and vote for the bail-out package, even if Republicans don't because they have a conscience. They won't be the ones to stand in the door and block a deal.

But, McCain can't run against the bailout, no matter how unpopular it is, not if the Republican President and Treasury Secretary are saying "we need this to avoid another great depression."

McCain is going to lose this last gambit, because House Republicans don't have the votes to block the bill, and Senate Republicans are already on board with it.

(BTW: Virtually all the Senators HATE McCain! He's insulted nearly all of them. Privately several Republican Senators have told reporters that they won't vote for him, and don't know many Senate Republicans who will. This is pay-back time for every "F***-You!" McCain has hurled in their faces over the last 26 years. And for some of them, that's a LOT of Payback. -- Plus every Senator privatly thinks HE should be in McCain's place, and is secretly glad to see him crash and burn).

dwbh said...

Hey, where'd all the right-wing trolls go? Guys?

Jeremy said...

Eh, who gives a shit about Nebraska?!?

Virginia!!!

Obama +5% (50-45) according to Rasmussen.

Charles M. Kozierok said...

"All I know you will see a vibrant young man up on the podium against an old one who looks every day his age.I am going for the blowup!"

I doubt it.

But if he does, you can bet tomorrow that he'll find a way to blame Obama for it. :D

Subterranean said...

For the tenth time---McCain cannot win this debate by a big enough margin to weather what Palin is going to do to him on the 4th. As long as Obama doesn't close with, "God bless America---and Allahu Akbar!", he's golden.

The Real Mike Is Back said...

@ Charles - This goes beyond what you or I believe. It is the whole pseudo-event expectations game.

Senator McCain is coming back. That move right there will increase viewership of the debate right there. The expectations game is now set so that the hurdle is so low for John McCain.

Four things can happen tonight. Which do you think is likeliest that the media will say happened?

1. McCain will give a clutch performance.
2. Obama will give a clutch performance.
3. McCain will make a gaffe.
4. Obama will make a gaffe.

McCain is just a better debater than Obama. At least that's how it plays in the media. They set all of these expectations on who wins and loses the debate. McCain will give a clutch performance because those people in the heartland will think so. They look at the whole financial crisis as another bailout for fat cats. McCain stopped it. Bottom line. That's the genesis of his clutch performance. They respectfully disagree with Andrew's analysis that McCain had all these shenanigans going on this week.

Poker, ladies and gentlemen. Poker.

Real Joe said...

Obama will get crushed today in the debate

McCain Landslide !!!

Matthew said...

That Virginia poll was down right toxic for McCain.

McCain favorables < Obama favorables
by 4 points.

Obama wins investors.

Obama cracks 50%.

McCain lost big probably double digit support among self-identified independents.

EmonOkari said...

I've never understood the 'low expectations' game. How does proving you are stupid before a debate actually HELP? Give me a smart guy before a debate, during a debate, and after a debate...over a moron before, an 'idiot savant' during, and back to moron after.

Charles M. Kozierok said...

cugel: I hope you're right. I've just lost faith in the intelligence of at least a third of the American people. They've already swallowed too much swill from the Keystone Kops Kampaign.

I was considering an interesting possibility: what if the House Reps sold out McCain? I doubt it would happen but what if they see the writing on the wall after McCain's stupid behavior and decide they should throw HIM under the bus and side with Bush?

That would be amusing.

Just John said...

Oops, Inkstain, my bad, forgot the Pakistan mess. Also, South Africa is in complete political upheaval, in case anyone cares (doubtful). But I DID fit WaMu's failure in there. Even you missed it, there was too much information to digest. :0

Real Joe said...

VA poll is a fake done by liberal Rasmussen

Rasmussen is a freaky name

OTF said...

The Rasmussen VA poll is very interesting..McCain +2 to Obama +5 from Monday to Friday.

AnotherMike said...

Morning poll update on the state polls not yet reported by Nate (many from last night and some from today) for us poll junkies. First number is the poll's spread, second the poll's trend from Obama's perspective, and third the poll's spread vs. Nate's snapshot from Obama's perspective:

AR RAS M+9 +4 +1
CA SUS O+10 -2 -7
FL RAS M+1 +4 0
MA RAS O+20 +4 +2
MI SEL O+13 +6 +7
MI STV O+3 +2 -3
MO R2K M+1 +4 +2
MO SUS M+2 +3 0
NH R2K O+4 -- +3
NH STV O+1 -- 0
NH SUF O+1 -- 0
OH RAS M+1 +3 -2
OR R2K O+14 -- +3
PA RAS O+4 +1 -1
VA RAS O+5 +7 +3
WV RAS M+8 0 -5

Trend lines look great for Obama. MI and OR are quickly moving out of contention, and PA and NH are holding steady or slowly moving Obama's way. VA poll is fantastic. FL, MO, and OH all still look like toss ups. WV may be a bridge too far. CA and AR may be a little tighter than supposed, but neither is in danger of flipping.

InkStain said...

The bailout is psychological as much as anything.

The entire *point* is to keep people and foreign governments from pulling their money out of the markets.

What on earth would be the point of shoving through a bill that 40% of your government says "This will never work!"? That'd have no chance of inspiring confidence.

Real Joe said...

i need another drink...

Charles M. Kozierok said...

Mike: It's not necessarily the case that either one gives a "clutch performance" or "gaffes". The most likely outcome as I see it is a bunch of back-and-forth with each side declaring victory. (Of course McCain has already. LOL)

Just John said...

Charles M. - A plausible scenario. Will and Huckabee have begun to distance themselves from McCain, others are surely not far behind.

mark said...

I don't think the "real joe" is real at all

his answers are far too stupid to even be a republican troll

it seems like a satire

Ann said...

As a native Nebraskan, thanks for the wonderful pics and highlighting the activity in the state. I'm 30, have been active in politics since I was 16 and can't possibly explain how wonderful it is for Nebraskans to see ANY activity at all on a presidential race.

I don't know that Omaha will flip to Democrat this year, but at least it's requiring resources on behalf of the Republican party to defend for once. And don't forget that Omaha borders western IA - most of the people in Council Bluffs (the largest city in Western IA) read the Omaha daily paper so activity there is sort of a two-fer for Obama.

Again, love the series!

Deadpixel said...

Rasmussen cola gives you the runs. Joe cola is the way to go for that Smooth Palin experience.

Rasmussen is biased...

AGAINST MCCAIN!

Just John said...

mark-

ding ding ding ding ding ding ding

Vanna, tell him what's he's won!

The Real Mike Is Back said...

Conventional wisdom will declare one candidate the victor in tonight's debate, Charles. They always do for every debate. I'm looking at the evidence of the last few hours and saying that it will be Senator McCain.

Mylegacy said...

From farce to tragedy.

John McCain is not a flip flopper. A flip flopper is someone who changes his opinions. John is just totally incoherent. The Republican brand is now totally vapid.

Every day I become more impressed with Barack's intelligence, demeanor, strategy and personal qualities.

It would be easy for a Democrat to watch gleefully as the millionaires club fell off a cliff. Unfortunately, that club - being the only game in town - is the place where every American has his personal pension plan and where every American has his company pension plan. A stock market collapse will doom millions and millions of Americans to penury in their old age. Despite being forced to also help the zillionaires - and take the scorn for that - the Democrats are prepared to take that flack to help the millions of Americans who are the innocent victims of the "Republican Religion of Deregulation".

We vow - Never again! Never again must American voters let Republicans be in power long enough for them to destroy the financial security of our nation. Hopefully, Democrats will be in power long enough to also stop the destruction of the Supreme Court.

It will be an honor to vote for Barack Obama. I can't remember anyone I've voted for IN MY LIFE that I felt it would be an honor to vote for. I actually feel humbled to have this opportunity.

weav said...

Hmm, drinking game, every time McCain says "my friends" during the debate, i'll drink. Hope I don't die.

Charles M. Kozierok said...

"Conventional wisdom will declare one candidate the victor in tonight's debate, Charles. They always do for every debate. I'm looking at the evidence of the last few hours and saying that it will be Senator McCain."

I don't see how, given all that has transpired, anyone can predict what will happen tonight or how it will be interpreted.

We'll see.

Mike said...
This post has been removed by the author.
Jen said...

Cugel-

What is your source for Republican Senators not voting for McCain?

My opinion of the Senate may be raised considerably.

As far as the poster who said who cares about NE, I think the people who live there do. I think as Dems we should try to reach out more to the red states. They will always be red if we don't.

::space2k:: said...

I'd love to see Obama force McCain to defend Missouri.

Mike said...

Obama taking the lead in Virginia, even if losing Ohio and Florida, is a killer for McCain.

Assuming Obama takes Virginia:
McCain has to take Nevada, North Carolina, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Florida and either Michigan or Pennsylvania.

Assuming Obama takes Virginia and Ohio:
McCain has to take Nevada, North Carolina, Missouri, Indiana, Florida, Michigan and Pennsylvania

Assuming Obama takes Virginia and Florida:
McCain has to take North Carolina, Missouri, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and one of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, or Colorado.

Eric said...

Mazza said...

Wanna wager how many times McCain says "My Friends" tonight?

I'll put the Over/Uner at 10. I'll take the Over.

quantman said...

McCain is a risk-taking fighter pilot!!

He loves risk and he loves in gamble, even now in Vegas and elsewhere!

IF there is one thing that defines McCain it is risk taking --which is why his hanlders HAD to take him off the straight talk express!

I am BETTING that McCain will stay true to form tonight, particularly since he is behind and take some even bolder risks!

I believe McCain will:

1. Say NO to using tax payer money for bailouts! Because, then that puts Obama on the spot. What does Obama say? That he is for taxpayer bailouts?

2. As a result, the House Republicans will stick to their guns and there will no bailout of the kind Paulson/Bernanke have proposed/recommend.

3. As a result of 1 and 2, markets will crash in October, right as we heading into Nov 4th and panic will set in, with many many more retail banks going under, the FDIC will be tapped out and by Oct 15-20th, lines be forming at your local banks to take money out and put it at home - heck the interest rate on savings is only about 2% per year now, or 0.16% per month.

Best to take the money out for a month or two and then put it back after the this stuff is settled/resolved.

OR ELSE, one Monday we will wake up and the Govt and FDIC will come out with a new rule (max allowed cash withdrawals per day of only $1,000 per account!

Mark this post, folks. I have a little bit of knowledge in this area!

AnotherMike said...

They are saying, we won't vote for the right bill unless those who want to vote against it will vote for it, even though we currently have a clear majority. Its bullshit.

The Democrats in Congress don't want to pass an unpopular bill and have Republicans run against them as big spending Bush Democrats, even if that's the responsible thing to do. The Republicans in Congress would love to take a populist stance, distance themselves from Bush, hammer the Democrats, and not take any responsibility for whatever happens. I'm not one bit convinced House Republicans do not want a bill to pass. They just don't want to take responsibility for voting for it. It's all politics on both sides. The only way to take poitics out of this financial mess is to pass a bipartisan bill or no bill at all.

Charles M. Kozierok said...

"I'll put the Over/Uner at 10. I'll take the Over."

I'll BET you will! LOL

OTF said...

Mike,

Your post relates to the tipping points chart. Nate hasn't done a post on tipping point chart in a while but PA is #1 now.

Charles M. Kozierok said...

"Mark this post, folks. I have a little bit of knowledge in this area!"

Sorry, but from where I sit, you're just another anonymous Internet pundit predicting that the sky is going to fall. Everything I've seen shows that you have a propensity to engage in hysterics.

Real Joe said...

anybody taking a mid day nap ?

LOL

OTF said...

Today seem to be a light polling day. I guess everybody is saving it up for right after the debates.

Darío said...

Rasmussen is a dem pollster now.

Phoeflame said...

It will be an honor to vote for Barack Obama. I can't remember anyone I've voted for IN MY LIFE that I felt it would be an honor to vote for.

I agree. This is the fifth presidential election I'm voting in, and the first time I feel as if it's an honor to vote for my chosen candidate (Obama). He's grown more impressive by the day...perhaps partly because of how flailing, despicable and pitiful his opponent has behaved in comparison.

dominoid73 said...

Gallup Daily
Obama - 48
McCain - 45

WAS even yesterday!

tkk13above said...

I don't think that Obama has a chance in Nebraska (even the Omaha part) but I am happy to see that his people and volunteers are getting fired up. This is what I like about Obama -- he really meant it when he said, "we don't live in red states and in blue states, we live in the United States". I know for practicality's sake Obama has pulled out of states like North Dakota recently, but he really did keep up an amazing 50 state strategy there for a while. I like it, because it acknowledges that there are supporters and enthusiasts everywhere. His campaign brings communities together so that they can enact change in the future on more local levels. So in short, I just like to read this, even though I do not think Obama will get that one EV.

::space2k:: said...

@quantman: Your problem is that even if the havoc you describe will not help McCain a bit.

"Mark this post, folks. I have a little bit of knowledge in this area!"
I can see the Dallas Fed building out my office window - now I know as much about fiscal policy as "Sarah!" knows about foreign policy!

Eric said...

I do agree that the bar has been set unreasonably low for McCain tonight similar to Palin before her speech. McCain will get some traction tonight, the question is how much since he's currently in a tailspin.

markymark said...

I think this election is going to get past the point when electoral strategy matters. I think Obama might even pick up a few states that don't look terribly competetive right now (Missouri, Montana, North Dakota?) I think right now, McCain is headed for a very one sided defeat. He could turn it around tonight.

By the way I don't think that the Rick Warren forum was 10-8 to McCain, I might give you 10-9, but remember the mileage Obama got out of the $5 million dollar remark, and that McCain didn't get a similar hit out of Obama, (even the 'Above my paygrade' comment is a comment that really doesn't play out of the right wing nutcases.)

Matt W said...

Gallup
McCain 45
Obama 48

Matt W said...

Looks like the public is sniffing out McCain. Gallup and Ras moving strongly toward Obama

Jeremy said...

Gallup:

Obama 48% McCain 45%

Obama +2 and McCain -1 since yesterday

http://www.gallup.com/poll/107674/Gallup-Daily-Election-2008.aspx

Another week in the shitter for McFailin

liberal_defender_of_freedom said...

wth!!!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/images/26Sep_Friday_WSJ.JPG

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/26/ex-adviser-mccain-blinked_n_129611.html

quantman said...

Republicans now WANT to ONLY focus on getting PRIVATE CAPITAL to solve this problem!!!

--- And GET THIS the Republicans want to FOCUS ON TAX CUTS for dividends to INCENTIVISE capital to invest in these deadbeat banks' mortgage debt!!

NO BAILOUT BILL WILL PASS ANYTIME SOON!!

Markets will CRASH IN OCT!!!

InkStain said...

My previous two presidential votes were for people I would have been horrified to see actually win.

" Conventional wisdom will declare one candidate the victor in tonight's debate, Charles. They always do for every debate. I'm looking at the evidence of the last few hours and saying that it will be Senator McCain.
"

The conventional wisdom for the last few elections' debates were for Kerry, Bush/Gore tie (people thought Gore won at first, then SNL took that away and the last two were considered a draw), Clinton, Perot.

Not a real great track record for moving elections, these debates.

AxmxZ said...

Gallup up by 3 to Obama. +2 on Ras, +3 on Diageo, -1 on R2000. The verdict is in: McCain had a disastrous polling day Thursday.

Eric said...

Fprwhat it's worth in Gallup, Rasmussen, and Diageo/HOTLINE, Obama seems to have won yesterday's polling by about 10 points. That might be the single biggest polling day for either candidate. Dynamics will change this race in the next few hours a nd few days, but the moment, Obama is destroying McCain.

Deadpixel said...

Today's Gallup is great news ...FOR AMERICA!

PorridgeGun said...

Gallup: OBAMA 48% - Nutjob 45%


That's more like it.

Gallup just salvaged whatever credibility they had left. Well done, chaps!

InkStain said...

Oh my.

McCain better have an *epic* debate.

Real Joe said...

Mark Halperin has no balls

he's in the tank for Obama

fu** you Mark Halperin

Nicholas said...

Daily Trackers:

Diago/Hotline: Obama +7
Rasmussen: Obama +5
Research 2000: Obama +5
Gallup: +3

Average: Obama +5

Not good for McCain.

Charles M. Kozierok said...

"NO BAILOUT BILL WILL PASS ANYTIME SOON!!

Markets will CRASH IN OCT!!!"

You're starting to sound as nutty as McCain... lay off the coffee dude. :)

Quadrivium said...

As the city whose name most closely resembles Obama, Omaha should be in play...

Michael said...

McCain: Maverick or Cavaderick.

I say just Ick.

Darío said...

But McCain said that he doesn´t debate.
He changes opinion more fast than a NASCAR car in Talladega.

InkStain said...

Is that "McCain Wins Debate" ad for real?

Because if it is, is that *really* the *best* McCain picture the McCain campaign could come up with?

He looks like Voldemort.

Mike said...

Wow @ the new Gallup.

That's gotta mean Obama had a huge day yesterday enough to reverse a big McCain day yesterday.

Quick math shows yesterday's polling at roughly 50-44? Is that about right?

Darío said...

If McCain lost this dabate, it will be cost the election for him.

Matt W said...

OK, I usually don't parrot these, but I liked this one...

"No McDrama, Vote Obama!"

Eric said...

The best hope is this House Republican idea plays well for their constituencies in rural America where the vote would be 75-25 McCai anyway. They hold their seats in 40 days, but the consensus opinion of most Americans, public servants, and economists is something needs to get done now and the HOuse Republican plan gives money in the backdoor to the same industry that screwed this up. This money the House Republicans want to give by insuring crappy loans and tax-breaking buyers' of them is money the American tax-payer could never get back. It's a terrible idea.

Real Joe said...

inkstain said...
Is that "McCain Wins Debate" ad for real?


some liberal hack put it out

Becky Sharp said...

Sadly, I believe McCain is a better debater than Obama and he will win tonight. His remarks are short, pithy and to the point. Obama's answers tend to be long winded and are horribly over-punctuated with ums and errs.

Obama is very smart and has a great timbre. He is potentially a great debater - but I haven't seen it yet

TBender said...

Inkstain...try Montgomery Burns...

Real Joe said...

don't believe polls

McCain Landslide !!!

Eric said...

Mike said...
Wow @ the new Gallup.

That's gotta mean Obama had a huge day yesterday enough to reverse a big McCain day yesterday.

Quick math shows yesterday's polling at roughly 50-44? Is that about right?

More like 52-43 Obama

Becky Sharp said...

>>Quick math shows yesterday's polling at roughly 50-44? Is that about right?

It's impossible to figure out day by day numbers in tracking polls. Period.

The Real Mike Is Back said...

The "McCain Wins Debate" is real. It was just an "accident" that it came out early.

Matt W said...

It is impossible to figure the exact numbers, but it is clear that Obama did a lot better and McCain did a lot worse on Thursday, then they did on Wed! Public sniffed out the stunt.

jakam said...

That Obama is surging precisely the week that early voting begins in earnest is fabulous. It's only up from here.

InkStain said...

"It's impossible to figure out day by day numbers in tracking polls. Period."

Agreed.

For all we know, the average yesterday was 44.4 to 43.6, and today it is 45.5 to 43.5.

Does +.8 to +2 seem as big as even to +3?

AxmxZ said...

mike: There was no big polling day for McCain the day before yesterday - he was just doing slightly better this week than last week, and the last big Obama win number had rolled off the average.

realistxxx said...

RCP Now has Obama +4 nationally.

That VA +5 from Ras is encouraging... more state polls please.

McCain gimmicks pseudo-suspending campaign/postponing debate/resolving the bailout = FAIL/FAIL/FAIL

McCain/Palin = Unfit for the Whitehouse

InkStain said...

"The "McCain Wins Debate" is real. It was just an "accident" that it came out early."

They are incompetent then. He honestly looks like a corpse in that picture. The eyes aren't even facing the same way.

Matt W said...

OK, now I'm getting bad with it...


Message to House Republicans on their form of "bipartisanship"

"I'll hug your elephant...


If you kiss my Ass"

Darío said...

Huckabee hates McCain


http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/09/26/mccain-made-huge-mistake-huckabee-says/

The Real Mike Is Back said...

Yes, inkstain. Yes they are.

Marc said...

I'm drinking tonight for every time McCain says "my friends" or Obama says "Look" to start a reply or a portion of an answer.

Chugging if/when they get into it on McCain's suspension stunt.

Political Realm said...

As for enthusiasm in Omaha--many of the people I've talked to had no idea that the an electoral vote was in play. "You're in the wrong state," one guy who planned to vote for Obama told me when I was canvassing.

I'm not sure which side the lack of knowledge helps.

quantman said...

HOW DUMB IS THE HOUSE REPUBLICANS PLAN??

- Think about it. Current tax on capital gains is 15%

- Let's say, hypothetically, that the democrats to LOWER the cap gains tax to 5%

- Which IDIOT out there with millions of $ is going to invest his/her capital (that they are not doing right now in these banks, and the bad mortgage debt), JUST BECAUSE, now they can get an extra 10% return??

- It's the perceived risk, you stupid House Republicans. When the perceived risk is so HIGH, capital will NOT flow towards that extra JUST BECAUSE of an extra 10%. It would have to be 30%-50% more AND that is impossible with just reduction in cap gains tax which is already at an all time low of 15%!!!

How dumb do you have to be to get elected to Congress from a red state Republican district? How many of these understand markets or capital or risk-reward decision making by wealthy and/or institutiuonal and foreign investors.

Remember we are NOT looking for $10-$20 Billion in capital through cap gains tax reduction. WE NEED more than $500 BILLION in capital.

The capital will NOT flow just cause of even a reduction in cap gains tax to 5%.

Stupid, stupid people!

Markets will crash! No bailout bill will pass UNTIL the markets crash! Mark my words!

Matt W said...

Political realm,
I would think that doesn't help Obama. There should be some education going out to let the Obama voters know they could have a voice, otherwise they might not show up

Becky Sharp said...

Inkstain: Yep, I've stayed awake at night trying to figure out tracking polls. Conclusion: Can't be done.

In fact it is even possible Obama polled worse today than yesterday - all it would take is an M+3 to have dropped out of the tracker today.

So yeah I'm happy with the number but there are no grounds for arguing it relates to yesterday's events

InkStain said...

"So yeah I'm happy with the number but there are no grounds for arguing it relates to yesterday's events"

Ditto. We need three full days of tracking to have an idea, and even then we won't know because the debate will be confounding it.

Sort of like how we still argue if it was a convention bounce or a Palin bounce that gave so many Republicans false hope.

NJ TU Owls said...

For all you Kool-Aid drinkers, don't get too excited. This is not over by a longshot. Focus more on the debate tonite. That will be more telling as to which way the election is likely to go.

BTW, if the Dems had any backbone they would have passed the bill on their own. Cowards in both foreign and domestic policy.

sky and focus said...

God Bless Ye Merry Gentlemen
Let Nothing You Dismay...

Becky Sharp said...

This poll on the other hand, made me wet!

John M. said...

Well, McCain has got the attention on the one debate where he should be strongest, he has managed to lower expectations for tonight significantly (people now expect Obama to win), and he has kept the Palin-Couric and Rick Davis messes off the front page. To date it may have cost him ~2 points in the polls.

I'm bracing myself for the rebound when he shows up in MS and manages to talk in complete sentences.

Jen said...

Is "The McCain wins debate" ad like "Super Bowl Champion" t shirts that they make for both sides? I think a "McCain loses debate" with a photoshopped tear in it would be awesome.

For the poster who asked if that was the best picture they could find of McCain, the answer is unequivocally yes. McCain looks like he died three years ago, buried, recently dug up by a mad scientist and reanimated and is now roaming the earth looking for human brains to eat since he appears to need some as both he and his running mate lack them.

I actually thought it was not a bad picture and better than most I see.

J said...

There is a way to tell when you are watching McC if he has had a TIA. And it's not by the droopiness of his eye.

Take a look at the nasolabial fold area of his face. That is the vertical crease area running between the nostril and the corner of the mouth. Post TIA, the nasolabial fold area becomes blunted and smooth. There is also somewhat of a droopiness to the corner of the mouth on that side.

The other clue is fatigue. The debate is at 8 p.m. tonight in Mississippi. If McC starts getting fatigued towards the end of the debate, his speech will start to become slurred.

realistxxx said...

Becky Sharp said...
This poll on the other hand, made me wet!

-------------

Pics?

Toby said...

Two days ago I thought John McCain was crazy .... yesterday I thought he was crazy like a fox, he was going to emerge with a grand strategy of running against Bush, the Democrat Congress, Wall Street and Barack Obama.

Today I think he is just stupid.

Charles M. Kozierok said...

"This is not over by a longshot."

Oh of course not. The Madman/Moron ticket has plenty more nonsense where this came from, right?

"That will be more telling as to which way the election is likely to go."

No, asswipe, I don't think so.

What is going to happen from here is simple: either McCain is going to prove tho Americans that is not the insane douchebag he's shown himself to be this week, or he loses.

He wanted to be the center of attention? He's got it. Only the subject is his bizarre looney behavior.

"BTW, if the Dems had any backbone they would have passed the bill on their own. Cowards in both foreign and domestic policy."

Take your GOP talking points and shove them up your lying ass.

The truth is that this was a bipartisan effort that is being derailed by McCain and some House Republicans for political reasons. And they are doing that over cowardice at being forced to take responsibility for participaing in the bailout that their own party knows they need.

John McCain is a traitor who puts his Keystone Kops Kampaign ahead of the good of the country. And you're a traitor for spewing lies to support him.

kittykate said...

"Ditto. We need three full days of tracking to have an idea, and even then we won't know because the debate will be confounding it.

Sort of like how we still argue if it was a convention bounce or a Palin bounce that gave so many Republicans false hope."

Exactly.
Well Said.

The Real Mike Is Back said...

@ Quantman - People who elect those kind of Congressmen view people like you as fat cats or elitists and know virtually nothing about finance. They could care less. As far as they are concerned, people like you are trying to take their money.

I'm sorry. I wish I had a more palatable answer. But those are the facts.

InkStain said...

"Pics?"

Screenshot or it didn't happen.

InkStain said...

"Focus more on the debate tonite. That will be more telling as to which way the election is likely to go.
"

Last four debate series winners:

Kerry
Tie*
Clinton
Perot


(*Gore was the consensus winner of the first debate in the early returns, but the SNL parody hamstrung him and made the next two debates a consensus draw)

Nicholas said...

Hilarious:

McCain Aids Complain That Palin is "Clueless

Capitol Hill sources are telling me that senior McCain people are more than concerned about Palin. The campaign has held a mock debate and a mock press conference; both are being described as "disastrous." One senior McCain aide was quoted as saying, "What are we going to do?" The McCain people want to move this first debate to some later, undetermined date, possibly never. People on the inside are saying the Alaska Governor is "clueless."

Vanessa said...

Inkstain,
You do realize that Gallup had noted three days in a row of Strong polling for McCain that had Tied up the Tracker yesterday.
Now Obama moves to a three point lead. Last night must have been a pretty strong night for Obama.

realistxxx said...

R2000 has polls out for OR and MT

OR 53-39 Obama
MT 52-39 McCain

NJ TU Owls said...

Chuck,

"No, asswipe, I don't think so."

It's comments like this is why I think you have severe mental problems. Go play on the KosKids site; people at your level on the evolution scale.

It's why your comments to me are meaningless except as a source of amusement. It's akin to watching the clowns at the circus, funny but not to be taken seriously. Shouldn't you be worrying about getting a date for the fall Middle School semi-formal?

InkStain said...

"You do realize that Gallup had noted three days in a row of Strong polling for McCain that had Tied up the Tracker yesterday."

Isn't it a three-day tracker, though?

Matt W said...

The right is turning hard against Palin

Real Joe said...

nicholas said...
Hilarious:

McCain Aids Complain That Palin is "Clueless

Capitol Hill sources are telling me that senior McCain people are more than concerned about Palin. The campaign has held a mock debate and a mock press conference; both are being described as "disastrous." One senior McCain aide was quoted as saying, "What are we going to do?" The McCain people want to move this first debate to some later, undetermined date, possibly never. People on the inside are saying the Alaska Governor is "clueless."


link ?? daily kos ??

haha

Vanessa said...

Yes so there were two relatively strong days for McCain.

realistxxx said...

Matt W said...
The right is turning hard against Palin

------------

Matt,

your link is broken.

Becky Sharp said...
This post has been removed by the author.