Later today, Sarah Palin is visiting Carson City, Nevada’s capital. Carson is roughly 30 miles south of Reno, and Minden is another 15 minutes south of Carson, in Douglas County. Douglas County is one of the traditionally reddest counties in Nevada, a place where registered Republicans outnumber registered Dems by roughly 2-1. It’s an area where many retirees migrate (especially from Orange County, CA), given its proximity to Tahoe.
If you want to talk about Republican domination, try this. Not since 1946 has a Democrat been elected to a county office here. George Bush beat John Kerry countywide 15,192 to 8,275, and Kerry lost statewide by 21,500 votes (Bush and Kerry together got approximately 815,000 votes statewide). Another way to put it is that about a third of Bush's 2004 victory margin came from an area contributing less than 3% of the statewide vote. You can see why reducing that margin by even a thousand votes would be a worthwhile investment in Nevada's ground game. Already, local radio has several times played an effective "Vote for Change" ad which features mostly younger people vouching for why they registered to "vote for change" (health care, the war, higher wages, etc.) followed by an Obama-ending voiceover that no matter why you're voting, it's important to register and vote. That's the Obama focus here right now - targeted voter registration.
The northern NV Democratic grassroots effort, in part inspired by an apparently highly effective Dean/DNC 50-state staffer based in Reno, has begun to stir the local Democrats into action. They've been trained how to use the VAN (Voter Activation Network) which is how voter files are maintained and improved. The Republicans have an office, but so does Barack Obama (about a block south of a brand new Starbucks!). There is real competition for votes for the first time in Douglas County.
A reminder about Nevada voter registration. The deadline to mail in a voter registration form is October 4, but you may take it to your county registrar in person by October 14 and still register. Early voting starts October 18. (Obama's website says October 25 is the Nevada deadline; unfortunately that's wrong. UPDATE - They've changed it this afternoon.) Your local Obama offices and McCain offices know the true deadlines and can help you register to vote.
If you live in Douglas County, here are your early voting options and locations.
This is just a brief update, there's more to come from Northern Nevada, specifically the Sarah Palin rally and some information about Reno/Washoe County. And a little teaser, we're going to have a feature starting in a couple days in this series that we hope you'll really like.
I'll post this for a little while in the series, but to contact me on the road: pocket99s at gmail.
9.13.2008
On the Road: Minden, Nevada
by Sean Quinn @ 1:45 PM...see also nevada, on the road
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65 comments
I will be in Vegas all this week at VMWorld.
I can't wait to see how people are reacting to whats going on.
I remember when my wife and I were driving into Nevada from Death Valley back in late February. Lining the highway were signs that read "Ron Paul, no taxes on tips".
No other candidate had signs besides Paul at that time.
My mom lives in Dayton, a small town outside of Carson City. She's going to the Palin rally today and is very excited. Palin has excited the Republican base more than anything I could have imagined just a few weeks ago.
Be sure to check the odds on the race in a casino while you're there.
NV voter registration has gone from Repub +4400 in 2004 to Dems +76,000 in Aug 2008.
The Dems best strategy in NV is to promote RP-
If he were on the ballot the state undoubtedly goes to Obama
Sarah Palin is the new Ron Paul, at least for the right-leaning Paul supporters I know.
Not directly related to Nevada, but to turnout in general, Gallup posted an explanation of likely voters today. To illustrate, they revealed that their Sept 5-7 tracking poll publicly reported McCain leading 50-46 based on registered voters, but among likely voters McCain led 54-44. They are downplaying the LV result for now, but they also note that their Election Eve 2004 poll was +2 Kerry among registered voters but +2 Bush among likely voters.
The turn around for McCain concerns me. My company I work for is laying off 700 more people and there are those who still want to vote GOP? There is no hope!
I was actually laid off this week. The dumbass that laid me off from Minnesota didn't realize that I am essential to the completion of a project, so I am reviewing a contract that will hire me back at twice the hourly rate.
The best thing is, I'll have some free time to work my ass off for McCain and Sarah in Colorado. I've never worked for a campaign before, but it should be fun!
Nate, good job on listing links to both the Obama and McCain campaigns. A move away from the strong left commentary of a week ago.
If you get a chance, get the pork chop at the Carson Valley Inn. I'm sure it can't compare to Super Sarah's mooseburgers, but it's pretty damn good.
Speaking of Nevada, Mac is up 3 in the latest Rasmussen.
I'm glad for these posts, though I expect I will always find the tone jarring. The proliferation of Starbucks and Democrats is cause for mourning, not celebration!
This may be tough, but try and get an estimate of the head count at this Palin event. Granted, it may be smaller than usual because of the location. But I'm curious as to whether or not the McCain people are lying about these crowd sizes. It certainly fits the pattern of everything else coming out of their mouths.
OK, so in other words in a very tight race McCain is sending Palin into solid red territory? This confirms my suspicion that the GOP ticket is spending a lot more time in solid territory than in swing or even unfriendly districts. Does anyone have any more evidence to back up my suspicion? I noticed this because Obama keeps coming to swing and even red districts in Michigan while McCain seems to stump in friendly GOP turf.
Geoff, John Peterson, without wanting to put too fine a point on it: I just don't understand the ongoing expectation from McCain supporters, or anyone else on this blog, that Sean and Nate should somehow modify/moderate their opinions. It's Nate and Sean's blog, and they're Obama supporters - it says so in the FAQ. They can write what they like.
We MUST register more voters and get them to the polls. Our message is not working, so stop surfing the web and go work the neighborhoods. If we can add maybe 10-20 million new voters we can pull this thing off. RepubliCon voter suppression will not work.
New Poll in Nevada
Nevada (5 EVs)
Rasmussen Reports 9/11/08
Obama 46
McCain 49
Other 5
Nevada: Obama 45.96%, McCain 48.29%
Obama has a 26.26% of Victory
I am curious about back to back posts from @Tin Gunter and @Alan,
Tim, Did you ask the people who were laid off, why they did not blame the GOP?
@Alan, why do you not blame the GOP or Bush for your layoff?
I guess that if I got laid off, I would likely blame myself first, or a down turn in my industry, but unlikely the party in control. Before this last spike, my impression was that we have the lowest unemployment in the world and as low as any time in history. Is that wrong?
It's startling that something as basic as the voter reg deadline is wrong on Obama's website. I hope this prompts somebody to review the whole list.
Naveenmallik,
The McCain/Palin ticket are lying about everything lately. The crowd size is just the latest example. See the Bloomberg article below.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601070&sid=a1J0tfV3XJYs&refer=politics
Keep laughing about meta-themes, McCain supporters, this one about McCain running a dishonest and dishonerable campaign is really taking hold.
Ummm, mostly because it's true.
Best thing we can do in CA is drive for Obama votes in Reno and other parts of NV. Wonder how big that effort is and how many new voters enter the mix this cycle.
There is the nuclear storage issue. McCain seems more than hawkish on trying to build 100s of new nuclear power plants.
No world-wide uranium supply for that, but in any case, I imagine that issue doesnt poll well in NV. We'll see. Especially, since energy needs in NV made be met largely with Solar and Wind.
Pol Watcher said...
OK, so in other words in a very tight race McCain is sending Palin into solid red territory? This confirms my suspicion that the GOP ticket is spending a lot more time in solid territory than in swing or even unfriendly districts. Does anyone have any more evidence to back up my suspicion? I noticed this because Obama keeps coming to swing and even red districts in Michigan while McCain seems to stump in friendly GOP turf."
Great post pol watcher. My sentiments exactly. The fact that Obama made a beeline to PA after the conventions and stayed there for 3 days is why McCain is in trouble. And now that everyone knows that McCain can't work a computer because of POW torture, this thing is going to shift Blue bigtime.
oct said...
Best thing we can do in CA is drive for Obama votes in Reno and other parts of NV. Wonder how big that effort is and how many new voters enter the mix this cycle.
-------------
Taking a week off from work and driving up to Reno (about 3.5 hrs) to work on GOTV.
Everyone in a safe red or safe blue state should find the closest/easiest battleground and get there for at least a few days before Nov 4th.
FloridaGOP said:
Before this last spike, my impression was that we have the lowest unemployment in the world and as low as any time in history. Is that wrong?
Yes, I believe this is incorrect. The unemployment rate was lower in the late 1990s and 2000. See http://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat1.pdf
...also in the 1940s from the same reference.
Kiss the western states Good-Bye Obama!
Read the Ras' explanation of today's South Dakota poll result (plus 17 pt McCain):
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/south_dakota/election_2008_south_dakota_presidential_election2
Yes, that means Colorado and Nevada are gone too. Obama's only chance in the intermountain west is New Mexico.
The pollsters are not taking into account the new democratic voters if they are using voting patterns from the past.
My guess is the pollsters may be in for a big surprise come election day. Seems like McCAIN is afraid to let Palin go anywhere but deep red territory.
In the end Obama will win, her glow will fade after people realize how unprepared she is to be president.
Except that 3 polls post-convention give Obama the lead in CO. Thank you, come again
@Florida
My layoff was due to inept management as well ass the economy. I worked in a billable hours job, and only worked the hours I was specifically asked to. Why would anyone lay off a guy, then hire them back at twice the previous rate?
The company is highly dependent on municipal work, which is getting hammered now - so they had to "reduce headcount." Unfortunately, I am one of the few that work in a relatively hot area, oil/gas/mining.
I am completely puzzled by the business decision, but it's working out great for me. I don't blame the Federal Government, although I think the Dems in Congress (Schumer, and even Obama) had a way-to-cozy arrangement with Fannie and Freddie, which enabled the housing bubble, which is impacting municipal budgets, which indirectly led to my (and others at my company) layoffs.
If and when you come to New Mexico please post pictures either of downtown Albuquerque or of the parts of Las Cruces that could just as well be in neighboring El Paso.
We would rather the rest of the country not know we have vistas too.
In response to Pol Watcher, it makes perfect sense to me to devote resources to the very red (or very blue) districts of swing states. All things being equal, Palin has a 2 out of 3 chance of motivating a Bush (excuse me, I mean McCain) voter to register and/or vote and/or contribute time or money in a district that is 2/3 Rep. Wasn't that precisely Rove's tactic in southern Ohio in 2004? Isn't that the principle behind Democratic voter registration drives in inner cities? I still don't understand what long term reaction most Americans are going to have to Palin, but I am quite sure that she will remain very popular in Red districts. As a tactical move, it makes very good sense -- and this is from a committed Obama-Biden supporter.
FloridaGOP said:
"Before this last spike, my impression was that we have the lowest unemployment in the world and as low as any time in history. Is that wrong?"
Yes.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_unemployment_rate
Very much so.
Hey Stop the Stutter,
Ron Paul was the only Republican to make an orginized play here in Las Vegas. Mitt Romney had it sewn up here before it even started and it was a complete waste of time and money for any of them to try... But the Dem caucus was a smarmy cat fight.
The topic message from Sean up there has a few key words to think about here in Nevada.
The two that caught my eyes first were... "Kerry Lost". The missing ones are... "Obama give it up".
Rasmussen Reports 9/13/08
Nevada
McCain 49%
Obama 46%
Muahaha!!
Michael said...
Kiss the western states Good-Bye Obama!
Read the Ras' explanation of today's South Dakota poll result (plus 17 pt McCain):
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/south_dakota/election_2008_south_dakota_presidential_election2
Yes, that means Colorado and Nevada are gone too. Obama's only chance in the intermountain west is New Mexico.
-------------------
Hey everybody,
Michael has spoken. No need to check the polls or post here anymore.
The race is ovah!
What a relief, I have plans on November 4th, but now I don't even have to vote.
Naveenmallik,
Sept. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Senator John McCain has drawn some of the biggest crowds of his presidential campaign since adding Alaska Governor Sarah Palin to his ticket on Aug. 29. Now officials say they can't substantiate the figures McCain's aides are claiming. [...]
In recent days, journalists attending the rallies have been raising questions about the crowd estimates with the campaign. In a story on Sept. 11 about Palin's attraction for some Virginia women voters, Washington Post reporter Marc Fisher estimated the crowd to be 8,000, not the 23,000 cited by the campaign.
One thing we now know about the McCain campaign -- they lie about everything.
Oh no... Eve found out.
This has LEGS!
As soon as it gets all over the media that someone thinks McCains crowds are not as big as we think they are we are DOOOOMED!
@dariencrow
Perhaps you don't comprehend the issue.
McCain-Palin are LIARS.
No one cares about his meager campaign attendances. That is what we expect. Kind of like penis envy. Saying your is big--but it aint.
"In recent days, journalists attending the rallies have been raising questions about the crowd estimates with the campaign. In a story on Sept. 11 about Palin's attraction for some Virginia women voters, Washington Post reporter Marc Fisher estimated the crowd to be 8,000, not the 23,000 cited by the campaign."
Does the McCain campaign really think reporters are stupid enough to believe that there are three times more people at an event than there really are? Then again, considering that they've lied about easily researchable facts so much lately, maybe it's not that surprising.
I think the "liar" label is starting to stick, especially now that nonpartisan sources are throwing it at them (though euphemistically) now. And that's one of the hardest labels to shake, and can't play well with undecided voters.
Here is another McCain-Palin Lie to consider:
Palin lies about going to Iraq--Washington Post
Yes, McCain crowds in swing states are paltry.
Needs more cowbell
more Greek Columns
http://www.denverpost.com/ci_10398419?source=rss
Politicians lie?
OMG... I just don't know what to do now.
You mean "THEY LIE"?
As in... not always tell the truth?
You mean like... "I can no more dis-own Reverand Wright than I can dis-own my own Grandmother"
You mean a LIE LIKE THAT?
I'm so shocked!
oct said...
@dariencrow
Perhaps you don't comprehend the issue.
McCain-Palin are LIARS.
No one cares about his meager campaign attendances. That is what we expect. Kind of like penis envy. Saying your is big--but it aint.
Great post oct. Obama is the real deal. Not only does he draw REAL crowds he also possess REAL size! You know what they say....
In a story on Sept. 11 about Palin's attraction for some Virginia women voters, Washington Post reporter Marc Fisher estimated the crowd to be 8,000, not the 23,000 cited by the campaign.
Well, that proves it. Everyone knows journalists chose that profession for their math skills. Mr. Fisher's estimate must be superior to that of the event organizers.
I think it is appropriate to consider that when McCain lies to boost Palin's resume that in fact McCain is the liar.
First--fail to vet her.
Second--shield her from media.
Third--lie about her accomplishments.
Fourth--lie about her appeal to the crowd and women votes.
I see a pattern here. Negligence, Distortion, and a lot of Lies.
@Darien
Live is rosey little world and believe in the lies. But truly no one is showing up at those events and Palin is campaigning in a solidly red NV.
Looks like a step back for McCain and the GOP this week.
I see a pattern here.
I don't think oct is going to vote for McCain.
What state are you in oct?
"Mr. Fisher's estimate must be superior to that of the event organizers."
If this were a trial, or a job interview, after the blatant factual contradictions the McCain campaign has made in the last few weeks, if they were saying "we're telling the truth this time," the response from the judge or interviewer would be "why should I believe you?"
Undecided voters have to ask this question of themselves. If this pattern continues, I am confident the answer of the majority of them will be....I shouldn't.
NV & other : If this election holds to the current LV models then McCain has a fair chance. If under 30 excitement + Obama ground game work then he doesn't
@Alan
Blaming the Dem House for the housing bubble? See the Wikipedia article on it. There's an inherent lag between lending and defaulting, especially for ARMs. So, while the bubble burst in Spring '07, its cause lies in the easy mooney of '02-'05. Guess who was in charge then.
I'm not a big fan of any recent Congress, but on Housing it has acted fast and appropriately.
The McCain campaign said 10,000 people showed up at the Consol Energy Arena in Washington, Pennsylvania, home of the Washington Wild Things baseball team.
Problem is the stadium only hold 5,000. Did anyone know if they had people on the infield or something.
Another lie I bet. 10,000 is such a large round number--had to be phony.
@Darien
I voted for Bush Sr. in OH.
Clinton in GA.
Gore in IL.
Kerry in MA.
I will vote for the most honest campaign this year--likely Obama.
Alan, Its illegal for the casinos to post odds on the election.
I don't understand Michael's reference to the Rasmussen poll. There is no discussion there why McCain is seeing a bounce there, just a few more statistics whose importance all of us can argue over.
Maybe MacCain is seeing a surge based on Palin's appeal to her conservative base -- most of whom would have voted for him in any case. For those outside of that group, her attractiveness as a candidate is dulled with the softball interviews Charlie Gibson did. Which means starting next week we'll start seeing a drift away from MacCain, & hopefully towards Obama.
Geoff
The author of this particular post is Sean.
"Nate, good job on listing links to both the Obama and McCain campaigns. A move away from the strong left commentary of a week ago.
September 13, 2008 1:26 PM"
Sean, I know we talked about this at Big Tent; it can be hard to figure out who is writing (as you both are similar) unless one reads the fine print.
PS
Nate and Sean, if your road trip takes you through Salt Lake, let me know.
Janey
I lived half my life in the Sierra...McCain/Palin will do well there, barring something unforseen. Vegas is a gimme for Obama.
Janey, it's very easy to tell Nate and Sean's posts apart. One is a wanker and the other is not, after all!
McCain '08!
Since it's Sean's post why address 'Nate and Sean'? that's just as wrong. I doubt Nate ever reads Sean's posts, anyway.
Minden. nice name.
From Sunday San Jose Mercury: http://www.mercurynews.com/news/ci_10458827?nclick_check=1
Ex-Californians could damage GOP's dominance in nearby states
ANOTHER FACTOR: HISPANIC GROWTH
It looks at structural changes in voter registrations of Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico from exodus of Californians and rise of Hispanic vote.
Sarah Palin could alter that in the short term, but the long term was already clear beginning in 2000.
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