“He balled right across the desert in this manner, demonstrating various ways of how not to drive, how his father used to drive jalopies, how great drivers made curves, how bad drivers hove over too far in the beginning and had to scramble at the curve’s end, and so on. It was a hot, sunny afternoon. Reno, Battle Mountain, Elko, all the towns along the Nevada road shot by one after another…”
– Jack Kerouac, “On the Road”
This town is hopping. Clark County was always going to be where Democrats hoped to run up their edge enough to win the state. How do both sides feel about their ground game here? Kirstin Searer, Barack Obama's Communications Director, said that Democrats "feel extremely good about our ground game." Indeed, Democrats have gained over 100,000 registrations in Clark County, which helped net roughly 70,000 statewide in the last year. 30,000 new Democrats registered on caucus day alone. Democrats have 5 field offices in Clark County, 14 offices open in the state as a whole, with 3-5 more planned, 90 paid staff and 75 field organizers. Obama is on his way to this critical battleground tomorrow, with visits in Elko and Las Vegas.
Nevada Republican Party Executive Director Zach Moyle also feels strongly confident. Nevada Republicans have been winning on the ground for decades, and they expect it to continue. Until Democrats prove that they can turn out young voters in a non-caucus, Republicans like their chances. Moyle predicted that if Republicans were within three points in the polls here, their superior ground game would make the difference. Republicans have 12 statewide offices open now, with another office set to open in North Las Vegas in the immediate future. McCain's Henderson HQ was busy during our afternoon visit, with young and old, male and female, English and Spanish-speaking volunteers.
We came away impressed by both efforts. We visited all three McCain field offices open in Clark County, and three of Obama's five offices. We also stopped in over in Nye County at each side's Pahrump office. Obama's Pahrump office is here, his current Vegas offices are in the west here, southeast here, central here, and North Las Vegas here and here. McCain/Republican offices are here in Pahrump, here and here in western Vegas, and the HQ in Henderson is here.
Seven weeks out, this is anyone's game. Moyle noted that Republicans had long invested in the technologies necessary to run a strong ground campaign. There's no doubt the VoIP phones are more sophisticated, with the voter file instantly updated with the voter's responses, and Republicans have 200 lines statewide at the moment. Ground game-wise, the champ is still the champ until you knock him out.
Obama's campaign thinks it has a hell of a left hook here in Nevada. More than 3,500 volunteers have gone through specific precinct captain training, and each of these captains has specific contact and voter registration targets. The volunteer and organizer energy at the Obama offices here in Clark was humming. Searer pointed out that it's unprecedented for a Democratic presidential campaign to open offices in places like Elko, Lyon County and Douglas County. Republicans know they've always held off Democratic Clark County by running up lopsided margins in the smaller rural areas around the state. John Kerry won Clark by 36,430 votes in 2004, and Clark was 66% of the statewide vote. But Bush won Nevada by 21,500 because of the rural county edge.
Barack Obama won the delegate count despite losing the popular vote in Nevada's caucuses precisely because he ran so much stronger than Hillary Clinton in the rural counties. He's making a trip to Elko tomorrow, the place John McCain officially announced for President in 2007. In addition, volunteers from California, where a lot of Democrats live, have set up a sister district program, whereby Nevada organizers and volunteers are set up to receive and house volunteers from their neighboring state. Silicon Valley maps to Carson City, for example (I met volunteers in the Carson office after the Palin rally from the Peninsula). Los Angeles/Southern California maps to Vegas. Barack Obama's campaign just put out an email to its California volunteers asking them, "Will you take a short trip to Nevada to make a big difference for Barack?"
Republicans take in out-of-staters too. Busloads of BYU students as well as volunteers from Oregon and Phoenix will come pouring into the state for the final early voting push. Both sides, and the Nevada Secretary of State, expect to see 50% of the eventual vote turn out during the early voting period. We got the sense from Moyle that Republicans are going to know several days before Election Day whether they're going to win, because they already know who their voters are and they know they'll do their usual strong job. They'll be able to see turnout and where it's happening, in which precincts, and they'll know, even if the general public won't. It seemed like the Republican effort is on a set of train tracks: it's strong, organized and focused, but it's really up to the Democrats to prove that their voter registration will translate to a sea change.
Finally, you've undoubtedly noticed our upgraded photography department. Let me introduce you to Brett Marty, a 25-year old documentarian and professional photographer who's co-piloting our On the Road coverage. Brett once drove his '95 Buick from California to Tierra del Fuego, Argentina, the end of the road. Apparently it's somewhere in Paraguay now. When we got in touch, he pointed out I might need another "wheel man." That – and the Argentina thing – pretty much did it. If you ever need to get your car through the Darién Gap, he knows a guy. Here's some of his other work, and you can email him at brett538@gmail.com.



96 comments
Obama 264, McCain 274
Sept 16 Polling Update
Cindy McCain's Fallacious Rebuttal
The Red November: An analysis on campaign marketing
"Indeed, Democrats have gained over 100,000 registrations in Clark County, and roughly 70,000 statewide in the last year."
Is this backwards? 100,000 registrations statewide and 70,000 of those were in Clark?
Nevada had one of the worst voter turnout percentages of the nation in 2004. If the people of Nevada come out and vote in higher percentages, then all previous voter models of the state will become totally meaningless. Obama needs to remind everyone that Nevada is a massively important state in 2008, and can very well decide this election (Kerry + Iowa + NM + Nevada is 269-269 aka Obama wins)
shadowbox.
Don't be ignorant. All of the current polling picks up anyone that is registerd to vote, including Gallup.
Many that are first time registrants, never vote.
"Many that are first time registrants, never vote."
Which is why organization is especially important. Did you even read Sean's post?
I would have said the Bay Area maps with Reno/Lake Tahoe/Carson City.
I got my draft today from the Obama CA campaign to go fight the Arizona Napoleon in Nevada.
Did you see fivethirtyeight's shoutout on xkcd recently? I was proud.
Yay Vegas! This whole thing is exciting. That picture of Lake Mead was a bit depressing though. Always depressing when it's low, and it's very low in that picture.
http://xkcd.com/477/
"The fundamentals of our economy are strong." John McCain 9/15/08
"It is a bad economy." John McCain 9/16/08
And today, after AIG, what is he going to say ?
Does he make his statements by simply flipping a coin ?
Can someone explain ?
Thanks so much for taking us on this trip with you ! Loved the pictures. I attended the Obama rally in Pueblo Colorado yesterday. Amazing demographic's and energy. I live about 3 hours north and the average income in my area is $58,000 per year. In Pueblo it less than $30,000. What a difference from Invesco. The rally drew about 50 percent white, 30 percent or perhaps a bit more Hispanic and the rest AA. I met up with some disabled Vet's as I am on crutch's myself and am also a VN vet so of course there was plenty to talk about. They told me they were undecided leaning Mc Cain as he is a vet but when Palin came along they decided to come to the rally. When we left some long hours later one of the guys wanted to go make an addition to his tatoo's and get an Obama one. Seemed like a dramatic step but hey... voter registration was great and Barack was speaking to the crowd yesterday and connected in a big way as he spoke simply and powerfully on the economy. We were in a country fair ground, with live stock smells and Barack spoke in the rodeo arena. I have gone to three rally's this year and this had to be the most interesting crowd. Not the Starbuck's crowd! but this crowd was definately open, receptive and ready to hear some good news. I thought it was a dramatic change from the stump speech, no history and just right into the economy and 'change'... very down to earth and easy to get solutions to our problems right now which was appreciated by my age group who is really hurting and certain the Mc Cain's aren't speaking to us or for us.
I'll do my best to defend McCain before I head off to bed. What his campaign claims he is saying is that although the economy is in terrible shape, the U.S. still has a skilled and productive workforce that can be competitive in the long term. Now, I've never heard a skilled workforce referred as "the fundamentals" before, but that's the campaign's explanation. He's actually made two statements like you quoted in the same section of the same speech, so it's not like he's changing his mind, I suppose. But his description is very odd, to say the least.
Sedi said...
I'll do my best to defend McCain before I head off to bed.
****************
it's a some sort of Berlusconi explanation but thanks,and good night.
Pretty Cool...
That Nevada Republican Party office with the big RED letters is 2 blocks from my house.
I did have a strange feeling that there were a couple of liberals in the area. I was RIGHT! (never left)
List of states with final results under 5% margin in 2004. Surprise surprise, these seem familiar aside from Wisconsin and Iowa which are now solidly Democratic.
1. Wisconsin, Kerry, 0.38%
2. Iowa, Bush, 0.67%
3. New Mexico, Bush, 0.79%
4. New Hampshire, Kerry, 1.37%
5. Ohio, Bush, 2.11%
6. Pennsylvania, Kerry, 2.50%
7. Nevada, Bush, 2.59%
8. Michigan, Kerry, 3.42%
9. Minnesota, Kerry, 3.48%
10. Oregon, Kerry, 4.16%
11. Colorado, Bush, 4.67%
It's a little strange that Nate's post didn't mention the increasingly perilous condition of the Las Vegas economy.
Get your More-Pain 2008 bumper stickers from the newsifact blogspot website. Together we can prove that there is nothing the Republicans can do to us that will stop us from voting for them.
shadowguidex said...
"List of states with final results under 5% margin in 2004. Surprise surprise, these seem familiar aside from Wisconsin and Iowa which are now solidly Democratic."
it looks like deja vu all over again & again....
excellent post
shadowguidex
You have to admit there is a joker in the pack - Virginia.
Yeah, Wisconsin might still be on the list, but I think it'll be more like 3-4% Obama margin. Iowa is solidly Obama and will be off the scale. You're right, Virginia will be on the scale there, no matter which candidate wins it, it'll be close.
Sean,
There's some pretty mean photography there.
(And the analysis isn't bad either).
back to why the Rasmussen model should be dropped:
Step 1. Ras polls party ID. By doing this they seem to forget that party ID does not reflect voting intentions: however small there will always be a portion of partisans who vote the opposite direction.
Step 2. RAs polls voting intentions. This is the sc raw data.
Step 3. Ras adjusts raw data to the polled party ID
Remark. by doing so the adjustmet assumes that 100 % of the X party polled for the party ID will vote for the X party.
To do it correctly they would need to perform an adjustement on the party ID poll itself. But using what data ? You might think the voter intention polls (the raw data). This would make the model circular and produce multiplicators of errors. And I have the gut feeling that this is exactly what's wrong with their polls. They are not just outliers they are statistical heresy.
If RAS is not dropped Nate's model will adjust only after the election.
I'm curious, what is the model for the Republican ground game? Is it in any way based on their Evangelical outreach programs in form and organization?
The Rasmussen adjustment does not assume that everyone in a party votes for that party.
What Rasmussen does is look at the polling data. If 85 per cent of the Democrats it polled say that they are going to vote for Obama and 12 per cent say that they are going to vote for McCain, this is how Rasmussen keeps the percentages.
What it uses party ID weightings for is to adjust its sample so that it matches the long-term average.
For example, if its weightings say that there should be a 40/30/30 D/R/I split, and the poll as a 20/60/20 D/R/I split, every Democrat voter is counted as two votes, every two Republican votes are counted as one vote and every Independent vote is counted as 2/3 of a vote.
I am no fan of weighing for Party I.D. because it is self reported.
It asumes that people don't define themselves by who they are going to vote for.
The hard core base is well enough fixed and thus unimportant. It is those who are not realy sure what they are who count. Some call themselves Ind, Dem or Rep on whim.
The stability of Rasmussen tracker is fake. In effect it is semi-locking the tracker to past results.
Blame said...
The stability of Rasmussen tracker is fake. In effect it is semi-locking the tracker to past results.
Yes, yes, yes. I've wasted time to try and explain this in my own way. But you nailed it.
davidgould,
they implicitly assume the party IDs polled in the first step vote 100 % for their party's candidate. Only during the voting intention poll do they do as you say.
THE ADJUSMENT BASIS, NOT THE VOTING INTENTION POLL, DOES ASSUME PARTY ID = PARTY CANDIDATE.
Today "daily kos" again 48-44 Obama.
The race is now clearly starting to turn. With the focus now on the economy rather than pigs, lipstick and McCain's lies, all the trackers are showing movement to Obama.
The single day results from Diageo and Research 2000 show Obama 4 points up yesterday. Rasmussen and Gallup have McCain's lead down to just 1 point. I expect them both to be tied or Obama leading today with clear Obama leads tomorrow. The Zogby poll showing Obama 2 points up, I can take or leave although if it is not an internet poll then it has some limited worth. We really need more national polls from the big boys (ABC, CBS, NBC).
The state polls should also start to move soon. PPP release results for VA today although the fieldwork will have preceded the economic collapse.
In the real world, McCain flails around like the clueless halfwit that he is. Having spent 26 years championing deregulation, he now claims that he is the one to bring proper regulation and oversight to Wall St. Give me a frickin break. His first concrete proposal is to set up a 9/11 commission on the economy. This guy is so retarded that he thinks that by using the 9/11 tag (in a wholly inappropriate and political way) that the American people will dumbly nod their heads and concur that it would be a great idea to appoint a corporate talking shop that will do nothing for two years. Great leadership.
This is the week that America realised that it was not such a good idea to reward the people who have fucked up the economy by re-electing them to government.
The best thing about the McCain (or should I say Palin) bounce is that it is going to be so much sweeter on November 4 when the Dems win. There is nothing better than staring defeat in the eye before coming back to a glorious victory.
Reuters/Zogby's latest national poll has Obama 47, McCain 45 - a gain of seven points for Obama since their last poll.
link.
The poll was conducted entirely before the Wall Street meltdown on Monday.
A thought that has been atr the back of my mind for a while now and scares me. Maybe 2008 is the wrong year to have this election from a Democratic point of view.
If it was in 2007, Iraq would have been an issue, Democrats probably win, as they did in the Congressionals in 2006. Maybe, just maybe, the true horror of this economic downturn doesn't hit until after Nov 2008. Maybe then the economy would have been a huge issue in 2009 if that had been election year, and even though it will be an issue this year, perhaps this year its avoidable to an extent. Maybe 2008 is sandwiched between these two disasters and might mean the GOP are given the benefit of the doubt, to an extent?
Honestly, i think the Nate´s electoral vote proyection is wrong.
The popular vote is now in RCP McCain up by 0.8% and the electoral map is Obama 273 McCain 265.
Obama is leaning in Colorado, by a small margin but is leaning.
I don't know Mark, the economic horror looks to have visited right now. Two investment banks in the can and the largets American insurer having to be propped up by the government. The entire financial system is at risk as a direct result of the Republican's love of deregulation and laissez faire economics. Americans are also hurting too in terms of gas prices, food prices, unemployment and their mortgages.
This environment will make it impossible for the GOP to continue to run their puerile argument that all our ills can be cured by drilling for oil, none of which will be on tap for the next 10 years.
If the Dems can't convert this into victory then I think we just all need to accept this country is wedded to the politics of fear and deceit and will get what it deserves.
LOL projection.
Great city at night!!
Rasmussem
McCain +1
Rasmoosen has really disappointed the people today.
Rassmussnen:
Wisconsin and Oregon poll coming out at 5PM
I'm sorry if this has already been addressed, but which states' polls are coming out today and roughly what time? Do we know?
Thanks.
Amy
The Rasmussen daily poll isn't on its website yet... where are you getting McCain +1 from today? Are you sure that's not his numbers from yesterday?
I enjoied the photogravures by Monsieur Brett. Tres bien.
Mike:
Yes they are todays numbers. It was 48-47 McCain
mike--Rasmussen national tracker is the same today as it was yesterday.
Whoever gagnes the Rasmussky daily tracker gets a giant golden turd from out of Rasmussus's behind as a prize. Each jour this happens. It's bien true.
I think Nate's EV estimate is more likely to be correct that the RCP, which is just an average of a handful of polls. His is much deeper.
And I think it properly shows why Obama is in trouble. The mantra of Kerry + IA + CO + NM depends first and foremost on holding all the Kerry states. Less than 50% according to Nate, and when you factor in the odds on winning both CO and NM we're way under 50%. It'a a good thing there are some other possibilities like VA out there, but there are just too many states getting closer to rely on carrying all the Kerry states. That statistic seems to get worse daily.
I have to take issue with your quote. Kerouac is fine of course, in normal times, but if you're in Vegas during an election year like this one, I think you kinda have to go with the good Doctor:
"We were somewhere around Barstow on the edge of the desert when the drugs began to take hold. I remember saying something like "I feel a bit lightheaded; maybe you should drive...." And suddenly there was a terrible roar all around us and the sky was full of what looked like huge bats, all swooping and screeching and diving around the car, which was going about a hundred miles an hour with the top down to Las Vegas. And a voice was screaming "Holy Jesus! What are these goddamn animals?"
But RCP was right in 2004. Except Winsconsin.
Geoff Rassmssen was unchanged today. How did Obama Poll yesterday?
Couple of new polls from the West Coast...
California - Field Poll
Obama 52
McCain 36
Washington - Elway
Obama 45
McCain 38
"It'a a good thing there are some other possibilities like VA out there, but there are just too many states getting closer to rely on carrying all the Kerry states. That statistic seems to get worse daily."
I think the risk of losing a Kerry state is high, but that is offset somewhat by legitimate shots at several Bush states other than IA/CO/NM--Virginia, as you mentioned, but also Indiana, Nevada, Ohio, even longer shot North Carolina (if we can figure out what's up with the polls there).
Similar to how McCain is not a great bet to pick up any individual state, but with several states threatened he's got an even-money shot at picking up SOMETHING from the Kerry haul, similarly Obama doesn't have a single great shot at a McCain-edge state (other than Virginia), but he's threatening in several states.
I think the Kerry+CO+IA+NM route is most commonly publicized, but there are a lot more states than those that are still far from decided. Both candidates have a lot of routes to the win at this point.
Aren't we supposed to get a huge batch of state polling today?
yes from SUSA which many of the posters here have discredited. Same folks that reported a 17 point lead for John McCain in North Carolina.
I thought there were some favorable Obama state polls coming from Arg today.
Washington is still safe.
I thought ARg had like 27 state polls coming out. Three were released yesterday. I know one was New Mexico, Obama +7.
that's right eric, not SUSA. ARG is coming out with 27 but I think people take ARG on the same level as Zogby.
cora said...
"back to why the Rasmussen model should be dropped..."
I think cora up there has lost her mind.
Rasmussen Reports nailed the 2004 election when everyone else got it wrong. Rasmussen Reports are the polls I trust MOST.
Yes most, as in, every other poll including this second rate gimic of a site that's here to promote a candidate.
I come here because I'm a poll junkie, I would like to see this guy actually "project right", and I love to argue with liberals. Nice place to get under some lefty skin.
But as far as polls go Rasmussen is king until proven different.
I think it's vital that Wisconsin and Minnesota don't look to be tipping points for McCain. It will be hard for Obama to hold off McCain if they get enamored with the Fargo Princess in Wisconsin or Minnesota enough to flip either. The electoral math would get really difficult as they're 10 and 11 electoral votes repsectively.
The intrade is changing. Now Obama lead with +1.
@eric,
I don't think Palin's lustre will last longer than another two weeks.
Those folks at Intrade are hardly poll driven andy.
Kind of haphazard hit or miss.
Election day the markets are pretty good determinants.
Vanessa said...
@eric,
I don't think Palin's lustre will last longer than another two weeks.
Agreed, her popularity is waning considerably. The question then becomes where does she have staying power? Minnesota and Wisconsin seem like very likely spots.
"ARG is coming out with 27 but I think people take ARG on the same level as Zogby."
According to Nate's ratings, ARG is on par with Zogby's regular polls (which are not regarded terribly, I believe), but way, way better than Zogby Interactive polls, which we saw this past weekend are just wacky.
"But as far as polls go Rasmussen is king until proven different."
Rasmussen got it right in 2004, but then Zogby was the one who nailed it in 2000.
I wouldn't put my trust in one pollster based on the outcome of a single election.
It would be interesting in these "road reports" to take on the comments made by Richard Baehr regarding staffers:
"However discussions with campaign professionals in Virginia and Ohio suggest that the Obama ground team, mostly passionate young out of state workers, are not connecting very well with local voters, even registered Democrats, many of whom are for more culturally conservative than the propagandists for Obama. There is the possibility of a backlash against the harassment, as occurred with Howard Dean's yellow jacketed throng in Iowa in 2004"
Is there anything to that?
It seems like ARG has released their poll results...
Key states:
NM: Obama +7 (saw yesterday)
CO: McCain +2
OH: McCain +6
WV: McCain +4
MT: McCain +2
NV: McCain +3
NC: McCain +11
A lot of key states not listed...no Michigan, no Virginia, no Pennsylvania, no Florida, no Gergia, no Indiana...I could go on. But they poll the District of Columbia?? (Which is Obama +69, by the way.)
It's a great idea for Obama to campaign in eastern Nevada. Does anyone know if he has ads in the Salt Lake media market that reaches Elko County?
Of course, it might be cheaper to run ads on cable and satellite.
Obama really needs to push in West Virgniia. Does he even have operations there?
Just wanted to say hi and say I love this site. I come here everyday. You all seem to be able to (excluding Congrats Pres McCain, even tho your replies to him make me LOL usually) discuss things with some sort of consideration no matter who you are voting for. It's very refreshing compared to most of the yahoos posting on all the news blogs who mostly post regurgitated talking points with no thought. Anyway, ya'll are great. Thanks and keep it up!
justin32099 said...
It seems like ARG has released their poll results...
Those results appear to be terrible for Obama and great for McCain. ARG had the race as of yesterday at McCain 48-45, which certainly is on the high side for McCain, but if Obama is back 2 in Colorado, 3 in Nevada, 6 in Ohio, and 11 in north Carolina that's not good for him. I don't think I trust those polls until I look into it more.
ERIC
Relax these polls were taken before the tide shifted back to Obama. Did you see this pollster only has Obama up 6 in Illonois!
ERIC
Relax these polls were taken before the tide shifted back to Obama. Did you see this pollster only has Obama up 6 in Illonois!
ERIC
Relax these polls were taken before the tide shifted back to Obama. Did you see this pollster only has Obama up 6 in Illonois!
Sorry for sttutering.
Great photography. I went to Ushuaia this year by airplane. Saw a penguin colony and the inside of the Dublin bar.
----
Sedi said...
I'll do my best to defend McCain before I head off to bed. What his campaign claims he is saying is that although the economy is in terrible shape, the U.S. still has a skilled and productive workforce that can be competitive in the long term. Now, I've never heard a skilled workforce referred as "the fundamentals" before, but that's the campaign's explanation. He's actually made two statements like you quoted in the same section of the same speech, so it's not like he's changing his mind, I suppose. But his description is very odd, to say the least.
----
This was yet another bald-faced lie by McCain. What political candidate would decide to praise American workers using ambiguous language they're likely to miss, be misunderstood and called out by his opponent, decide to not explain himself the first time, then repeat the ambiguous language again? That is the laughable claim McCain wants you to believe.
His backpedal is phony and is in keeping with the campaign that tried to convince people Palin heroically rejected the money for the bridge to nowhere.
How long until McCain claims Obama was his captor in Vietnam?
re carly's statement yesterday:
"CNN's J. King: "They have not run a major corporation but what is the United States government? It is the biggest business, if you will. It requires executive decisions like that. ... Yes, she said Obama and Biden aren't qualified either. But at a time they are trying to make this compelling economic argument to seize control of the biggest issue before the American people, to have ... a senior economic advisor -- although she volunteers for the campaign -- say that you're not qualified has them furious. And she was told to cancel some other interviews she had scheduled today, and I'm told you won't see much of Carly Fiorina on TV, at least for a while, because of their disappointment on this. ... This was another miscommunication from the McCain campaign at a pivotal time" ("AC 360," 9/16)."
Pulitzer stuff guys. Keep up the great coverage.
Oh happy days!
Gallup tracker: Obama +2
The GOP bounce is over.... or is it?
How much further has McCain to drop?
Did anyone else hear michael greenberg on fresh air, npr this am?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080917/ap_on_re_as/as_pakistan
I'm sorry but I have to speak out about this. This administration (perhaps the worst in our nation's history 43rd out of 43) has dropped to a new level. I believe that they are pursuing Bin-Laden for the first time in 7 years for political purposes. They want to make foreign policy front and center. I'm sure people will disagree with me, but I'm not a conspiracy theorist. I'm a realist. I could tell at the time at the end of 2002 Colin Powell believed Hans Blix was right and Dick Cheney wrong in 2002, but thought he was doing his job and this is true now. No wonder he world thinks we're idiots.
pakastan
urgh - I was afraid of this
Nevada Republicans have been winning on the ground for decades, and they expect it to continue.
There's a fairly serious fallacy in your post about the ground games of the two campaigns. In 2004, Kerry lost by ~21,000 votes (~0.5% of the vote). That happened with the vaunted Republican ground game -- the Republicans themselves said that their ground game has been good for decades. So what we need to compare is not the ground games as they are today, but the ground games as compared to what they were in 2004.
Have the Democrats improved their ground game by 21,000 votes? So far, in terms of voter registration, Democrats are +50,000 on Republicans.
Good research, all around. But the thing in this post that impresses me the most? The mention of Darién Gap. That's awesome. (My sister in law lives in NV. She's been a US Citizen for less than a week; she was born in Panama.)
Using Pollster.com's excellent interactive feature, I've just compared Google Insights graphs of the parties' popularity in NV with Pollster.com graphs of the candidates in the same "toss-up" state. Interesting similarities and contrasts... See my Word Face-Off blog.
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