John Kerry beat George Bush by 5,700 votes and a little better than 63%-36% in McKinley County, New Mexico. That's a mirror image of the 5,988 votes by which Bush won statewide. McKinley represented 2.7% of the overall New Mexico vote. Parts of the Navajo nation and Zuni reservation spill into McKinley.
In our personal Gallup poll, it seems clear Barack Obama will exceed the Kerry margin in McKinley, simply because Democrats are working with an unprecedented presence here. Having an office open 2-3 months before a general election versus sweeping in for the final 10 days makes all the difference, especially in a state where early voting by mail needs to be organized well ahead of time. The Obama Gallup office is a block north of I-40, here.
During our midday stop, one man stopped into register to vote, and other voters dropped in for information about Thursday's Obama rally in Española, NM. One of the two native Navajo field organizers deftly and successfully turned it into a volunteer recruitment opportunity. Other volunteers were out canvassing. Because these rural New Mexico counties are so far-flung and gas is so expensive, it's hard to doorknock and subsequently return to the office the same day. Volunteers (85 at the office opening a month ago) have autonomously adapted to this challenge, often picking up walk packets on a weekly basis and reporting voter file information back via phone each night.
That underscores the basic theme of the Obama ground effort: "Respect. Empower. Include." It's similar to the corporate model of giving employees an ownership stake in the company. Allowing grassroots volunteers to feel ownership in the campaign as opposed to being dictated instructions by organizers is a principle the Obama campaign has worked hard to actualize. In Gallup it seems to be working.
In Grants, New Mexico, we stopped into both the newly-opened Obama office – one of 36 with four more impending – and found the Republican Party office. McCain has 10 offices open statewide with more set to be announced on Friday, but the state Republican Party has smaller volunteer offices open in every county, and this was one of those. Grants went for Kerry also, but by a much closer margin (436 votes) and for only 1% of the statewide vote total.
This, too, is a county with heavy minority population. 44% are native, 33% Latino, and the rest Anglo. Much of the county is canvassable by drive-honk only rather than the compressed housing that allows for walking. Most of the latter is in Grants itself.
Betty Hill, a volunteer for McCain's campaign and not a paid organizer, staffs the Republican branch office approximately 40 hours a week. She has a full phone list for the entire county of Republican-registered voters that she calls through looking for volunteers and reminding to vote by mail. When we crossed her path, another woman had stopped in the office for a McCain-Palin yard sign that she wanted to place on her rock-ribbed Republican mother's grave site.
Which reminds me of something Betty did not express but that McCain organizers have done - give me "the look" whenever the subject of yard signs has come up. We can assure you that the McCain organizers and the Obama organizers have at least one thing in common – hatred of yard signs. There is not a red America, or a blue America, there is the united organizer-hating-of-yard-signs America.
Tonight we also stopped in for an appearance on Jim Villanucci's KKOB 770 AM drive time radio show to talk electoral politics. Thanks to fbihop for setting it up. Tomorrow, we cross paths with Barack Obama's rally in Española as well as the opening of a new John McCain field office ironically across the park from the rally. We'll get you photos (look for a bunch more tomorrow) and the official comments from both campaigns about their statewide efforts.


168 comments
I live in Las Cruces, NM, but it's good to see someone actually writing about the state beyond, "It's a swing state again." The fact that it's my favorite website is great too!
Sean and Nate et al:
Is there any data regarding the effectiveness of door-to-door ground-level operations?
I have always felt that better outcomes could be achieved by training field workers to be local surrogates for the campaign and having them run town-hall style meetings.
The events would be run as "informational" type Q & A sessions in much the same wauy that the candidates conduct these sessions. However, since the candidates can only go so far and have only so much time, this would be a way of "spreading the message."
I was reminded of this again when you stated, "Because these rural New Mexico counties are so far-flung and gas is so expensive, it's hard to doorknock and subsequently return to the office the same day."
Overall, these are my questions:
1. Do the respective campaigns (in general, or specific to this election cycle) have a "likely" target number for the number of new registrants that are likely to vote?
2. Is there any firm data on the efficacy of door-to-door canvassing?
3. . . . phone calling?
et cetera.
As a prospective volunteer, I'd like to have the most impact, and while "every vote counts," I'd rather not waste my time knocking on the doors of those who don't want to speak to me (heaven knows that's how I feel when someone comes to my door).
HI SEAN
nice post. hope you have a good time at the Obama rally.
I just got an email from Team Obama to join them at a 'rally' in JAX this Saturday.
-----------------------------------
This Saturday, September 20th, please join Barack Obama in Jacksonville, where he will talk about his vision for creating the kind of change we need.
Change We Need Rally
with Barack Obama
Metropolitan Park
1410 Gator Bowl Blvd.
Jacksonville, FL 32202
Saturday, September 20th
Doors Open: 12:30 p.m.
Program Begins: 2:30 p.m.
-----------------------------------
DAMM, I would go up to JAX for it - but I will be out in LA this weekend. Too late to catch the big ticket Hollywood 'rally' with Streisand at Greystone though, so I guess that saves me about 30K...
----------------------------------
SEAN, speaking of FL, did you see the video announcement tonight from Team Obama about their intentions for FL ?
Just read this on the wire @ http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/sep/18/florida-budget-set-by-obama/
'Florida budget set by Obama
Donors asked for $39 million' by Christina Bellantoni
Thursday, September 18, 2008
"Sen. Barack Obama's campaign manager told donors Wednesday the candidate will need $39 million to compete in Florida and said battleground-state voter-registration numbers are a good sign for the Democratic nominee.
David Plouffe said in a Web video he would "open up the hood a little bit" to reveal a number that campaigns usually keep secret so he could underscore the "sheer magnitude" of the race between Mr. Obama and Republican Sen. John McCain.
He said the spending on Florida television and radio ads, turnout operations, staff, mailers and fliers and office space "is going to cost a little over $39 million, which is a big number."
......
"We have enough base voters in Florida to win the election, if we can just turn them out," he said.
He lauded "remarkable" voter-registration figures in Pennsylvania, where there has been a "net gain" of 375,000 Democrats. There have been smaller but noticeable gains in swing-state Nevada as well.
"That makes John McCain's margin for error even smaller and gives us a better electorate," Mr. Plouffe said.
In an e-mail accompanying the video, Mr. Plouffe tells supporters the details "haven't been shared publicly before."
"Our fight in the battleground states is going to be tougher than a lot of you may think," he wrote, adding that to meet the $39 million Florida goal, the campaign is aiming for 50,000 new donors by midnight Friday.
Obama supporter Rep. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz of Florida said the figure appeared to be in line with the general amounts needed to compete in the state, given its 11 different media markets."
-----------------------------------
The Times/CNN FL poll today was a nice treat with Obama +4 in the 4-way vote.
maybe FL can be counted in the blue column in November !
see you here in the sunshine state along the I-4 Corridor next month when the ground game will be in full swing for maximizing turnout.
DCM
Only 36 campaign offices? Obama needs alot more if he will take this (Bush!)state. I think he is doomed in NM.
Why do organizers hate yard signs so much?
I suspect they hate the logistics of getting them out.
@Maxwell: Why do you say that? Bush won by, like, eight votes (exaggeration). And New Mexico seems to be trending Democrat these days.
NM was only a Bush state in 2004, when he was running as an incumbent. It went for Gore in 2000. NM also went for Clinton over Bush the elder in 1992. It's been a true purple state for a generation.
I'd be curious what the voting patterns are for the sizable Native population in NM: what the participation rate is there, and how it tends to break down by parties.
Yo Sean and Nate!
Come on down and take a look at Dona Ana County. It's THE swing county of one of THE swing states in this presidential election. Dona Ana is on the border of Texas and Mexico. About half (if not more) of its inhabitants are Hispanic and many of these are 1st language Spanish speaking. Dona Ana county may be the 2nd most populous metro area in the state because Las Cruces is the 2nd most populous city in NM (but don't tell that to Santa Fe). It's demographics reflect those of the state fairly well. Bush won this county by a very small margin (less than 400). Although the county is primarily Hispanic, the military and U.S. government protection play a very big role here.
Dona Ana County is THE COUNTY to watch during this election campaign (but don't tell that to Bernalillio County which is where you will find Albuquerque). The national polls and media often pass over this area of the US and yet, in this election, this is where the vote struggle is. It's not in Albuquerque nor is it in Santa Fe.
Whether y'alls pay attention to the real struggle or the manufactured one is up to you. If Obama wants to carry the Hispanic vote, he ought to show up and also some send some heavy Hispanic hitters down to long, forgotten Dona Ana County.
Not sure where else to point this out, but Selzer has Obama ahead in Indiana 47-44.
I'm loving this "on the road" series. It's cool to get a look at where the election is playing out since I'm locked down in a hardcore red state (Alabama). The photos are awesome, too.
I'm the main writer of New Mexico FBIHOP, and I have to say, What's the Word did more to get on 770 KKOB than I ever did.
Also, New Mexico is a very purple state; we're addicted to close races from Presidential (~350 votes for Gore in 2000 and ~6000 votes for Bush in 2004). We have a Democratic governor and legislature, but a Republican delegation (1 GOP Sen. and 2 GOP Reps vs 1 Dem Sen. and one Dem Rep.)
This year could change things -- New Mexico is the ultimate purple state.
Yard signs are somewhat of a waste in extremely rural areas, nobody ever sees them.
But If they "hated" them there must have been another reason.
Yeah...Why do organizers hate lawn signs? It's good publicity; lets people know that their neighbors support a candidate.
I'd think they'd hate bumper stickers. You never know who your driving is going to tick off, and then reflect badly on your candidate. When the sticker is on the back bumper, the people you cut off see it, not the people you let in. :-P
Re: yard signs. they are a waste of money for many campaigns. Let's put it this way: would you rather have your campaign of choice pay for 10,000 signs or one organizer to convince people to vote for your candidate?
If you care enough, make your own sign -- as my father intends. My dad who hasn't been excited about a candidate in many years.
Sorry to hi-jack the NM thread but I wanted to discuss a parameter that's lacking from Nate's website and nobody is paying attnton to the previous threads.
The characterization of a pollster as good or bad should also include their performance from 2004 particularly in battleground states.
ARG's results in 04 battleground states of MI, WI, OH, PA, VA, NM, FL and CO were better than those of SUSA's (which trended dem)
But the best pollster of these states was Mason-Dixon even if it slightly trended republican in states W barely won.
I'm surprised Nate is not using any info from 2004 and that he does not have a map showing the areas Obama is over/under-performing Kerry and McCain the same for Bush.
I'm not sure why organizers hate yard signs. I have two theories, though.
1) Perhaps because there is an attitude that it's literally the least you can do. They would rather have people helping do the leg work.
2) I know that here in Alabama that campaigns are responsible for cleaning up signs on the side of the road after the election or they get fined. But this usually pertains to interstates, highways, and general public right-of-way areas, not people's yards.
That's all I got. Hopefully Sean will follow up with an explanation because I think he mentioned this in another post. Maybe I can find something using the google...
By the way Selzer has Obama 48-45 ahead in IN.
http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080917/NEWS0502/80917076/-1/ARCHIVE
She had also shown Kerry +3 in IA in 04.
Regardless it can only be a good thing that IN is this competitive:)
In our last house our garage door faced a busy, uphill street. We would put up a dozen or more signs, two or three of the same kind. On election day people would drive by, stop their cars, and mark their sample ballots after seeing what we had displayed. People would tell us later how glad they were that we had done that so that they didn't have to think about what or whom to vote for. I think signs have a lot of influence those last few minutes, if anyone is not already firmly decided how to vote.
I dare say this is going to be a battle, but I'm reconing Obama can chalk NM as a win.
What interests me is that he is still going all out for Florida.
I was one of those who felt Biden & Palin would both push Florida blue. What a shock the resultant polls were for me!!!
Maybe I tore my hair out too soon. Anybody know how to stick it back on?
Then again it is posible that the team know Florida won't be a tipping point state in the normal run of thing. It might just be a way of limiting McCain's options or gambling on him making a gaff. As example: suppose McCain was minded to cut taxes by reducing support for the elderly?
I know I have said this before but I don't buy the idea that Palin just pushed the red states redder. She pushed the deap Blue states redder as well.
What didn't move much was the swing states. Masive campaigning had already locked most voters. They won't shift blue very fast now ether for the same reason. I can live that. A 3% shift by November will do the job nicely.
david:
That would not be a very good model.
Knocking on doors tells people that you care about their feelings and opinion.
Getting them organized by staffers risks having the same people show up and missing many others.
Door-to-door gives the campaign a supreme advantage in monitoring strengths and weaknesses and adjusting field operations and messaging accordingly.
This microtargeting will be critical on election day. We'll know which people seem to be turning out for us and microadjust our campaign. Almost real time monitoring. That's how Rove won Ohio in 2004.
We know it because we stole his playbook :)
Have you thought about posting multiple big-picture shots, one based on most recent polling (last 7 days) and the one you already post. I totally like the stats you give here, just thought it would be interesting to see a more haphazardly week-to-week snapshot from polls.
I like the location of the dateline:
Gallup.
That was intentional, wasn't it? ;-)
Hi there
Long time viewer and lurker, first time poster. Love the site, keep up the great work.
One question that anyone can answer. On the various ballot papers/punch cards/voting machines around the USA do all (I repeat ALL) of them display 'Democrat' and 'Republican' etc next to each of the candidates?
I've been observing as much of the election as I can from where I am and it seems to me that the Republicans have totally and unequivocally abandoned their party name! Last year in our election the incumbents played a similar ploy yet it did not fool the electorate that they were somehow different from themselves. Change was the central theme employed by the party not in government at the time and it worked.
McCain always says “this party” instead of ‘Republican’.
I’ve noticed that in straight out ‘would you vote for a generic Democrat or generic Republican’ poll delivers a big margin for ‘Democrat’ because the Republican brand is tainted and ‘Democrat’ is a positive word this electoral cycle. Is Obama saying the word Democrat and does he use the word Republican every time he refers to McCain in his daily speeches and media conferences?
In regard to this I can’t be sure but has anyone noticed that polls which ask the Presidential horse race question with the party of each candidate show better results for Obama and those that only mention the candidates are better for McCain??
If pollsters don’t mention party ID and all ballots across the US do mention party ID then I’m hypothesising that these posters may have a slight bias (in McCain’s favour).
Hopefully this hasn't already been discussed but I thought I'd share.
Scott Adams of Dilbert commissioned a survey of 500 economists from the AEA to see who they thought would be better for the long term economy of the country. Overall, 59% of the economists favored Obama.
Adams notes that the sample is 48% Democratic versus 17% Republican. What's interesting is that while economists themselves would be more likely to identify themselves as Democrats, conventional wisdom identifies the Republican party as better for business.
About 15 years ago I ran a Congressional campaign. I hate yard signs.
1. They cost a lot of money to print.
2. They cost more resources to assemble (volunteer time and cost of wood).
3. They are a royal pain in the ass to assemble -- staple guns and splinters, that's all I'm saying.
4. They are a logistical nightmare to distribute - again, volunteer time that could be put to more productive use.
5. Some asshole from the other campaign is likely to knock down, steal or deface a large number of your yardsigns (repeat complaints 1-4 to replace).
6. After the election the campaign is usually responsible for taking down signs. Since volunteers become pretty scarce after election day, the campaign staff get stuck with this task. It sucks even more if you just lost the election.
God, I hate yard signs.
The economic crisis has the McCain campaign in freefall. The national trackers are now turning against him. Obama is now up 2 in the Gallup tracker, a 3 point jump in a single day which means it's only going to get worse for the GOP. CBS/NYT now show Obama up 5 (49-44) and it's only Rasmussen with his party ID sleight of hand that continues to show McCain ahead.
The internals for the CBS poll are terrible news for McCain. The bounce he got with white women from the Palin selection has reversed itself. McCain is also tied to Bush by 60% of voters and a majority consider Palin not only unfit to lead but a purely political choice.
The state polls which tend to lag national polls (for reasons I do not understand) are now also starting to turn. The CNN/Time polls show Obama competitive in states where he should be struggling(down 1 in NC, down 6 in IN, tied in FL and up 2 in OH) and SurveyUSA shows Obama up 8 in NM. A few more days of polling like this and the GOP will start to panic.
Does anyone even remember Palin anymore? The Dems have finally understood that she should be ignored for the irrelevance that she is. The economy is in the shitter and she pledges to "shake things up in War-shing-ton". At least she's not as dumb as McCain whose every pronouncement has to be reversed within 24 hours.
Now that I think about it, there are a few more reasons organizers hate yard signs.
7. They rarely persuade anyone to vote for your candidate (Soozzie's post notwithstanding).
8. Yardsigns and bumperstickers are vanity items to burnish the candidate's ego. When the candidate thinks their opponent has more yardsigns and/or bumperstickers out,they get cranky. Cranky candidates are REALLY irritating to campaign staff.
The campaign consultant I used to work with gave her candidates the choice of one or the other.
I can say one good thing about yardsigns. On a couple of the campaigns I worked on, if the firefighters' union endorsed your candidate, they would assemble 500 yard signs for the campaign. Firefighters are hot.
But yardsigns still suck.
business and economy are two different things. Businessmen oppose regulation, economists generally are for it. Regulation is up to government. Government of the economy is also about setting rules to business. This crisis is very serious because in the view of many economists the deregulation chicken are coming home to roost. It's the whole deregulatory mindset which is at stake. Then comes the swan's cry: the funamentals are strong. True. We the people (the fundamentals) will take the costs of nazionalizing corporate America.
(NATIONALIZATION OF LOSSES)
Can we still afford to talk about tax breaks for oil companies ?
(PRIVATIZATION OF PROFITS)
Will be still be able to afford the world's largest armed forces ?
Remember that the final bill for buying Fannie, Freddie, AIG + other minor companies is already at 900 billion !
You can color NM blue. IA too. All Obama needs to do is hold the Kerry states and add CO or NV or VA or OH or FL or IN or NC or some other surprise state and he wins. Not ALL those states. Just one. McCain has to defend them all. I don't see it happening. Especially not with the economy in the tank.
Sean posted:
"Grants went for Kerry also, but by a much closer margin (436 votes) and for only 1% of the statewide vote total."
Do you mean it went for Bush also?
I love this series, and the great photos!
I really want to see more WV polling. I know logic says it's a long-shot and the only two pollsters to poll the state aren't top-tier. But two polls, a little more than a week apart, showing Obama down by only 4-5 would seem to merit that state being watched. An economic crisis has a way of tearing down the usual red-blue divides, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see WV trending back towards it's Democratic ways.
It's not too late to put a little bit of a ground strategy into the state with a few offices. If Obama or Biden would swing through while hoping between VA, PA, and OH then that could do some good rather than just treating them like fly-over country. I also think that it could be one of the top states where Obama's union support could pay the biggest dividends.
Playing for WV would change the national impression of the Obama campaign, and there's alot of ways they could put WV in play if this polling bears out a trend. 5 EVs are enough to add another path to the Kerry+IA+NM+?? parlay.
The reason why we organizers "hate" yard signs, is 'cause that's the first thing ANY potential visitor of a campaign office wants. The thing that I observed is that they usually Only want a yard sign, exclusively, and You will NEVER see them again! If You don't have one(which is often the case in Obama's offices here in Cleveland), The person is apt to turn for the door, and walk out. Don't get me wrong~they want You to have one, they're just in such high demand, we get them inn one week, and by the following week, their out...In Kerry's campaign, Tubbs-Jones made You pay, which nobody minded...In Obama's campaign, they reason w/ You...if Your volunteer works one volunteer shift(phone-banking, voter reg.,canvassing), You will receive a yard sign. Bribery works real good around here!!! Also, You get the chance to empower a person whom otherwise would've taken the sign and never returned.
Yard signs fire up the oppo. Stealth GOTV effort is better IMHO.
Just a quick note re: WV. The folks in Southern OH are sooo racially biased, I'm sure this carries on (or emanates) from WV. The inhabitants have been reported to be soo nasty, as to set out their dogs on the white Obama canvassers, and spew filthy, racially-charged reteric(sp?) at them as well. It sucks all the way around, especially if Your just doing it to "help out" I think the only way ANYTHING is going to happen in this Hell-Hole is individually, in the voting booths and phone calling to potential supporters. Also, I have a friend in Hawaii whom specifically wants to call this area during election season. Yes folks, just keep those poor, lost souls in Your prayers at night.
According to the current model, Obama has less chance of winning Florida than McCain has of winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. Furthermore, Obama's chances in Florida are listed as very near to McCain's chances in Washington, Oregon, New Jersey. If thats really the case only 6 weeks out, why is Obama spending $40 million in Florida (along with multiple Obama/Biden visits, multiple Clinton visits, etc)? Why not take that coin and pump it into CO/NV/VA? Why not keep both Clintons in the Rust Belt for defense and spend more time out West? That is, if thats really the 'Path To Victory' we keep hearing about.
On the ground here, it does appear MUCH closer than an 80%-20% state. It 'feels' very close, talking to the voters (and here in Central Florida, its massively one-sided for the Dems). Mr. Plouffe recently even laid out a video strategy for us to keep pushing hard on the ground in FL (while we are witnessing HEAVY Obama advertising that is tearing through the expensive airwaves).
Either this becomes a MAJOR financial blunder by the Obama campaign (possibly wasting tens of millions that could be game-winners in CO/NV/VA)...or Plouffe & Co. knows something the models just don't show.
EmonOkari:
I don't think the current numbers are as bad as they appear because they still reflect the post-convention bubble. If things swing back to pre-convention numbers, as they are trending right now, then his win percentage there will markedly improve. As for why they are spending a whopping $40m there? It's either a head-fake (they really aren't spending that much) or their internal numbers/voter registration efforts are showing they stand a good chance of winning.
I find it hard to imagine the Democrats will be allowed to win Florida. Not only are all sorts of vote-suppression tactics used there, but electronic fraud seems almost guaranteed to me, given the history. I have to wonder how Plouffe, et al., plan to get the vote out and counted accurately in Florida. Anyone have any insight into the Obama campaign's attempts to effectively counter vote-suppression and electronic fraud in Florida?
New Q-Pac national numbers: Obama up 49% to 45% among likely voters.
Does McCain have a college educated white voter problem? Obama wins college educated whites 54% to 44% in this poll.
Poll, taken September 11-16, confirms national trend to Obama.
Rasmussen is currently the only holdout - lets see where his numbers come out at 9 AM today...
Thanks for a nice post, Sean.
I'm looking forward to more pics of NM, of which I've been a fan for many many years. Various relatives have lived in ABQ, Santa Fe, and Los Alamos.
The "Four Corners" area (near Gallup) has always been an interesting "point" to pass through.
Jd35 - I spent three years of my life in Cruces while studying graduate level math. I'm so sorry.
...with that said:
My volunteer partner had an interesting take yesterday. She spoke about winning Florida as an 'icing on the cake' game-winner. But not actually the 'main goal'. This 'distracting goal', she explained, was to force McCain to heavily defend Florida. The 11 major media markets do make it VERY expensive. She surmised that if McCain has to respond in the state and invest heavily, that it gives the Obama campaign a spending advantage in the smaller market states. She also spoke about a possible 'head-fake' where Plouffe 'opens up' and shows everyone the Florida budget to try and scare the McCain Camp into big investments of their own.
Now, she's the one with the degree, not me. So you can choose for yourself if thats a sound analysis or not. I personally believe that, when down to the final stretch, any candidate time spent in a state you are not likely to win, is a missed opportunity in a state you have a real shot at. Every day spent in Jacksonville and Orlando, is one less day spent in Denver and Vegas. I understand its much more complex than that, but if the Obama campaign loses NV/CO by 100k, while still losing FL by 5 points, we'll be collectively slapping our foreheads for 48 months.
My experiences are pretty limited to the Central Florida area. However, the 'feel' on the ground here is that Obama CAN win. And the local campaign office keeps telling us that, if we just keep pushing hard, the votes will be there in the end (I'm guessing they say this everywhere, though). Heck, maybe the campaign is 'head-faking' us volunteers as well. One thing is for sure, they are keeping us busy. =^)
Serious question.
There has been a lot of talk about how Rasmussen uses party ID to adjust his national polls. I happen to agree with the basic principle of that methodology. What I am unclear on is how (if at all) Rasmussen weights party ID for state polls.
Given that party ID from state to state differs wildly from the national average, he would either have to individually weight each state or not weight at all. His state results however do not reveal any weighting. Anyone know the answer?
Geoff? Any ideas.
With regard to national weighting, I am also unclear as to how Rasmussen is going to adjust his weighting weekly. Is he just going to take his weighting from the past week's polls or is he still going to us the past three months data? The problem is that the GOP convention bounce will distort those figures (the second convention tending to have the longer albeit shallower bounce) all the way up to the election. Views anyone?
New Indiana numbers from the Indianapolis Star:
Obama - 47
McCain - 44
!
It's a Selzer poll, which Nate indicates has a blue bias. However, take away a few points from Obama and it still indicates the race is a tossup
With CNN polling Indiana 51-46 McCain, Indiana looks to be at least 15 points closer in 2008 than it was in 2004. It's worth continued serious investment for Obama.
Several comments:
Yet another reason for campaigns hating yard signs: in some areas (Wichita, KS among them), they can be legally posted only in certain areas, and/but campaigns are held responsible for their placement whether or not volunteers/staff have placed them. That, and the gathering them up afterward after the election that Smartypants mentioned above.
Someone asked above why Obama is investing so heavily in Florida. Re an e-mail sent to Andrew Sullivan by a reader last week, they have a truly massive voter-registration drive going there and a model for turnout that even figures in no-shows on election day. The e-mailer said the campaign's focus is not on daily news cycles but on November.
(I admittedly drank the Obama kool-aid a long time ago, but I have to say that the more I learn and understand about their campaign, extending back to before the primaries even began, the more impressed I am.)
Re voter-suppression/fraud: Several organizations, including the Obama campaign, have hired lawyers and are training folks to watch polling places for signs of voter intimidation.
"I'd be curious what the voting patterns are for the sizable Native population in NM: what the participation rate is there, and how it tends to break down by parties."
I'm curious about this too. McCain has a lot going for him; from Arizona, chairman of the Senate Committee on Indian Affairs, he's got Nighthorse Campbell's support and Palin's got the Yup'ik "first dude". But McCain's time on the SCIA has gotten mixed reviews and Palin seems pretty divisive as well.
OTOH the Dems had 143 Native American delegates at the DNC. I would expect McCain to do very well for a Republican, especially in the southwest, but I have no idea what the baseline is.
Something to consider when questioning 'why is Obama/Axelrod/etc continuing to pump resources into state 'x', when polls show him behind?
Keep in mind that a pollster calls maybe a thousand people, tops, in a state with a population of millions once every couple of weeks.
On the other hand, the Obama campaign has a massive phonebanking operation going, where they are calling tens of thousands of people statewide on a daily basis. They know, down to to pretty well any demographic you want to slice it, what the actual support basis is on a daily basis in a state. They know individual supporters by name.
So yes, Axelrod is dealing with infinitely better data than what Nate has to work with here.
Sean - you are having much too fine a time of it! Brilliant site. Bring it home Obama !!!
CBS/NYTIMES: Obama up by 5 (48-43)
Quinipiac: Obama up by 4 (49-45)
Dailykos Tracking poll: Obama up by 6 (49-43)
NEW MEXICO SurveyUSA: Obama up by 8 (52-44)
INDIANA IndyStar: Obama up by 3 (47-44)
Interesting internals in todays Research 2000/Kos poll. The 3 day tracker shows Obama now up by 6 (49-43). Yesterday's single day polling showed Obama up 8 (50-42)
Palin now has net unfavorability and McCain's is now even. It truly is the economy, stupid.
http://www.dailykos.com/dailypoll/2008/09/18
RCP average now shows Obama in the lead by 1 point and that is going to grow to 3 points once the week old polls drop out. Exactly where Obama needs to be.
Interestingly, next week's debate looks like being a must win for McCain whereas a few days ago it looked like it was critical for Obama.
NM has suspect voter registration cards (1:19 p.m.)
By The Associated Press
Article Launched: 09/17/2008 01:21:04 PM MDT
ALBUQUERQUE — The Bernalillo County clerk has notified prosecutors that some 1,100 possibly fraudulent voter registration cards have been turned in to her office.
Some cards in New Mexico's most populous county have the same name as a voter who's already registered, but carry a different birth date or Social Security number; some list someone else's Social Security number; some have addresses that don't exist, Clerk Maggie Toulouse Oliver said Wednesday.
In one case, a series of about nine cards appears to have been taken directly from the phone book, she said.
The tide has turned on McCain, his bounce is gone and unless he has great debates(doubtful) I think Obama will pull away.
A lot of the financial problems we are having are caused by his deregulation frenzy and his going around saying he wants to regulate wall street just sounds like BS, people are not that stupid.
By next week I expect Obama to be up 3-5 points and getting back a lot of the states he lost.
If anything, I worry Obama's turning it around too fast. It gives too much of an impression that the race is easy to move, and will spark an inevitable McCain backlash (probably after the foreign policy debate) that will give the shallow observer another excuse to yell "momentum."
The new polls out today are very bad news for McNasty. He embarrassed himself yesterday pretending to be a working class hero and got shouted down by the auto workers.
I stand by Obama 300plus EV victory.
Today's Big Ten Poll - as unknown as it is - could salvage John McCain's week... or put it firmly in Obama's column.
The Quinnipiac poll reveals how sexist and age-ist Black people are.
22% of Blacks are uncomfortable with any woman VP!
71% of Blacks are uncomfortable with an old president!
http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1284.xml?ReleaseID=1215&What=&strArea=;&strTime=0
The chickens are coming home to roost...
I'll freely admit that I almost never watch broadcast TV these days (sports are the exception) and even then I tend to record shows on the DVR first and watch it later skipping commercials. That said, I'm also in Las Cruces and haven't really noticed any ad campaigns at all that aren't obviously part of a nationwide rollout. Compare that to Albuquerque, where you can't watch TV without getting hit over the head without at least one commercial from each campaign every break. I think it's because they'd have to actually buy airtime from El Paso (it's supposedly possible to hit some of the translators and rebroadcasters from Albuquerque but I've never been able to do it with my equipment) and with no chance of flipping Texas it's not worth the money to try and reach the southern part of the state when you can get the majority of the population with ad buys in Albuquerque.
This leads me to ask one other question: Would an ad buy on the Juarez stations be legal? It's possible to get those stations with a large or high-powered directional antenna.
communsense,
commonsense says you are the racist. Get out of here
Welcome to the Land of Enchantment Sean! I feel bad that you didn't come just 2 weeks later during the Balloon Fiesta that we have... it's just spectacular.
Hope you enjoy your stay, and don't forget to swing by Albuquerque!
McCain is working really hard to lose the hispanic vote:
http://www.citizenorange.com/orange/2008/09/does-mccain-know-who-the-presi.html
I don´t think he has any chance to win New Mexico. The only way to pull even is to declare his position on immigration (and pandering to speakers of the Spanish language like Obama did), but if McCain does that he loses too much of his base... it´s once again an indication of McCain´s balancing act between base and swing voters. The debates will be brutal to him because he will have to refine his positions. He can only hope for an Obama gaffe.
The Selzer poll of Indiana looks too good to be true. But since there is no presence of the McCain campaign in Indiana things might turn around faster than one might expect. I remember the "Road to 270"-article on Indiana. It´s screaming to be a swing state.
Today will be an excellent day for Obama in this model. He will pull even in the popular vote and ahead in win %. Let´s see if Rasmussen becomes the solitary outlier.
Tony Hillerman country - my favourite American Detective writer.
Mark: Using phonebank data to get polling results is a really interesting idea, but I doubt that the Obama camp does it. For one thing, organizationally polls and volunteers are kept pretty separate. But for another, polls do stuff like random-digit dialing, whereas Obama only calls the voterfile and volunteer lists, so they've got a biased population. Also, I bet getting called by the campaign biases the answers, but I'm not sure how much one should care about that.
The polls are moving too fast. It will be another week before we have enough steadiness to sort out the states.
Sorry Nate but fot now the trackers are king.
Meanwhile keep moving. Your reports on the road are brilliant. You have told me one thing already. The GOP GOTV is in place, if only because they can do it in their sleap without troubling McCain (He probable hasn't a clue it's even happening).
I am looking forward to the RNC adds on McCains behalf. I wonder if the know they are now the party for regulation?
Upps, Obama by 3 in Indiana.
Rasmussen, all tied up at 48.
This poll is hard to move either way, but now only one poll taken in the past week (ARG) shows any McCain lead at all.
State numbers out of CT and GA will be released at 3; not particularly interesting, but we'll see how Obama's pullout of GA changed the numbers there
Gallup, New Mexico?
Does that mean you'll also be visiting Rasmussen, Vermont?
Zogby, Hawaii?
ARG, Montana?
Democracy Corps, Alabama?
The RCP popular vote is Obama up by 0.6%.
Mason-Dixie, Maine?
Antmatic, how do you see the results of the Rasmussen poll early? Do you have a subscription or what?
The Lehman Brothers effect?
John, I subscribed to the Rasmussen premium service back when it was $19.95. I figured 40 bucks for two months was worth it.
Tracking poll numbers are released at 9 AM in a video to premium members, state polls are leaked at 3:00 PM in a video. Also, it lets you look at the crosstabs. Given the volume of polling Rasmussen does, it's a pretty good deal and the only one of these things I'd consider paying for
Antmatic, okay thanks.
So you have a subscription and not 'what' -what could that 'what' have been, I wonder?
joe,
i've checked there's no zogby in hawaii.
Interesting data from Rasmussen:
The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator shows McCain leading in states with 200 Electoral College votes while Obama has the edge in states with 193 votes. When “leaners” are included, shows Obama leading 259-247 (see Quick Campaign Overview). A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House (see 50-State Summary).
Rasmussen Markets data gives McCain a 48.0% chance of victory while expectations for Obama are at 51.2%. These figures are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants.
v. f'in intersting, Dario.
Rsmussen reports has just thrown Mccain under the bus.
McCain and the Meltdown
A Commentary By Froma Harrop
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_froma_harrop/mccain_and_the_meltdown
I bet their gonna threw the party adjusted model within 72 hrs
The Quinnipiac poll said that Obama is leaning by 14 points among women.
Thanks ass.
I'll tell you, nothing gets by assmole.
;-)
The Quinnipiac poll has already been released by the Quinnipiac Bobcats.
ARG has it tied in FL (46-46) and it has McCain up 3 in NH (48-45).
It's ARG of course so I wouldn't change my view that in reality McCain is up slightly in FL and Obama is slightly in NH
cora: Re: Patry ID weight, the odds are good that Ras will abandon them in 72 hours - they re-adjust every week, don't they?
Sparse posting today. Must be an effect of not having many new polls and the media domination on the financial meltdown.
And so far the Financial Meltdown is too complex to lend itself to easy safe sound bytes.
I agree with InkStain. McCain's bubble burst so quickly that Obama might yet crash back down from his new-found heights instead of plateauing into a solid lead.
But frankly, I think he's proved over the course of his campaign that he knows better than anyone what he's doing.
Sigh - I think it's going to be another painful day of polls for us McCainiacs. Even if some good news comes in from state polls, it'll be behind the curve. I had expected the two would be going into the debates about tied, but clearly, McCain is going to be behind. It's still anyone's game, but I'd rather be Obama at this point. Anyone can see he's got the 'mo'.
In response to Axmxz,
Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large (see methodology). Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. During the final two months of Election 2008, party weighting targets are updated each Sunday (see additional information). For polling data released during the week of September 14-20, 2008, the targets are 38.7% Democratic, 33.6% Republican, and 27.7% unaffiliated. For the previous week, the targets were 39.7% Democrat, 32.1% Republican, and 28.2% unaffiliated.
Time: Did McCain diss Spain?
I think Obama can strike a homerun if he says that insurance companies should restrain themselves to insure people and not expand into to the lending business. I don´t even know if that was the reason for the AIG breakdown, but I know that Obama will soon have to specify what exactly he is going to do. And I think the popular sentiment will prefer more goverment regulation, especially in the insurance sector that should be the safe harbor if other sectors fail.
"And so far the Financial Meltdown is too complex to lend itself to easy safe sound bytes."
Aside, of course, from "The Fundamentals of the Economy are Strong!"
LOL.
In other news, Does John McCain hate Spain, or does he just not know where it is?
FloridaGOP
the meltdown is so complex it will need a 3 years Mccain commission before any decision is taken. As for the polls: Mccain is tanking
floridagop: ...Yes, that sort of was the start of the conversation - given that Ras updates his Party ID goals weekly, how likely is it that he'll be shifting they in Democrats' favor after this week?
joe, you're right but it takes it toll on the brain. Might wind down in ARG, Montana once the election's over.
By the way.... on the one hand I think it´s unfortunate that the first debate will be about foreign policy - on the other hand it will keep the race going. At the current state of the race, the economic debate would kill McCain - kill his campaign for good.
* shifting "they"?
shifting "them".
more coffee!!!
What is Mark Halperin on? According to him, McCain won the week. He must be the only one who things so. He's hardly in the tank for McCain given how he's been talking about him on the TV lately - he must just have a different take on things than anyone else.
http://thepage.time.com/the-page-scorecard-sept-10-17/
AxmxZ
he didn't diss Spain he just thinks it's in Latin America
alex s. - Given that McCain just demonstrated he doesn't know anything about Spain right to the Spanis press, I'm not too worried about him shining in the foreign policy debates.
Rasmussen almost always reports their favorable ratings in their write up, but not today.
Here's why:
Obama has taken his first lead in the total favorable rating since 9/04, 56% to 55%.
More interesting than that though, is the large "Very Unfavorable" ratings gap that has existed since Rasmussen started polling has almost completely eroded. On 8/26, Obama's Very Unfavorable rating was 30% and McCain's was 19%. This gap has averaged about 10% for months. Today, it's 24% "Very Unfavorable" for McCain and 26% for Obama.
Obama still leads the "Very Favorable" ratings, 37% to 27%.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/favorable_ratings_for_presidential_candidates
Hmm, another steaming pile of ARG polls today? Some of them will be a week old...
"But frankly, I think he's proved over the course of his campaign that he knows better than anyone what he's doing."
If he wins, especially if he wins without any sort of recount/late-night-swing-state-watching silliness, his campaign becomes the gold standard everyone copies for a few years.
@Cora,
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_froma_harro
I can not get the link to work, and I am unclear on the connection.
Froma Harrop has always supported democratic viewpoints, recently a big supporter of Hillary.
Is there something on RasmussenReports implying a change of their PartyID, please cut and post it here.
"alex s. - Given that McCain just demonstrated he doesn't know anything about Spain right to the Spanis press, I'm not too worried about him shining in the foreign policy debates."
It doesn't matter whether he shines or not. The partisans on both sides will use the insipid baseball analogies that make me want to bash my head into a wall only because their head is unavailable.
The point will be that it gets people thinking about foreign policy, which isn't what Obama wants.
Alex S. said...
By the way.... on the one hand I think it´s unfortunate that the first debate will be about foreign policy - on the other hand it will keep the race going. At the current state of the race, the economic debate would kill McCain - kill his campaign for good.
Don't fear, recessions don't last just a week.
He dissed Spain in the sense he didn't recognise the Spanish PM's name. Obama might not have done much better -probably call him the 'president of spain' or something. At least that would be promotion for the guy, though.
By the way.... on the one hand I think it´s unfortunate that the first debate will be about foreign policy
A little man just popped out of a time machine and told me that the subject of Chinese-owned debt wasn't wholly overlooked.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/political_commentary/commentary_by_froma_harrop/mccain_and_the_meltdown
it's for FloridaGOP
McCain had no clue what was going on. Sort of like his running mate on the Bush Doctrine.
Just what we need, a president going senile who likes bombing things.
inkstain: I think that might be the way he finally "changes the tone" in Washington - simply by example. Of course, the big question is, does one in fact need to be Barack Obama to run a campaign like Barack Obama?
State numbers out of CT and GA will be released at 3; not particularly interesting, but we'll see how Obama's pullout of GA changed the numbers there I am actually interested to see the Georgia number, if only to see if this week's "bounce" trickles into Deep South states. Obama's camp seems to think they can play there if everything goes there way.
Clearly, it's still only an "Obama Landslide" state and nothing more.
Go on Charles, tell us what the Bush doctrine is, please.
When Rasmussen Reports throws McCain under the bus on the economy, McCain is losing the economy issue. Fair or not.
"What is Mark Halperin on? According to him, McCain won the week."
Despite the dates given, that's clearly a write up about last week's news. It looks like a page from the magazine so it's probably the information that appears in this week's issue, so it's about last week.
"Go on Charles, tell us what the Bush doctrine is, please."
'Uh.. his world view?'
LOL.
Psst. I'm not running for vice-president.
@AxmxZ said
>>>>Yes, that sort of was the start of the conversation - given that Ras updates his Party ID goals weekly, how likely is it that he'll be shifting they in Democrats' favor after this week?
This has been discussed here a number of time. Basically Rasmussen has a methodology (polling 45K asking how they self identify) that does not seem intrinsically biased. Nate/Sean have evaluated it as nothing obviously wrong.
Having said that , there are lots of posters here (Fred was one) who just feel in their gut that Rasmussen is connected with Fox and biases his data.
I do not think that ScottR is biased one week and unbiased the next. He is just going to spit out the results of the PartyID poll.
Those might be a higher weight for Dems just looking at the poll results this week.
I think people, especially those who have changed recently, adjust their partyID based on today's news. They are just that much on the fence.
You are running for something, though, charles.
As demonstrated in 2004, N.A. indians as well as latinos do not vote by party affiliation, but rather by whom they like/identify with. They I.D.'d with Mrs. Bush 'cause she was latino, but this time, Obama is "one of the tribe"
I'll repeat a question I posed earlier. Does anyone know whether (and how) Rasmussen weights party ID for STATE polls as opposed to national polls. His state polls never refer to party ID weighting.
I'm particularly interested as his state polls seem to follow his national polls in that they seem to understate Obama support by 3-4 points (eg Obama up in Oregon by only 4 and up in Wisconsin by only 2). Anyone know the answer?
Lop off the polls that are now a week old from RC, add in R2000 and take an unweighted average. Result?
Obama +3.5
I'm not saying Ras is any more "biased" than anyone else. I do think his polling will shift some of that 2.5% back to the Dems. In fact, I think Republicans might start becoming an endangered species once more - at least until the debates.
DailyKos poll, for what it's worth, has O49 - M43 today.
FloridaGOP said...
".......
I think people, especially those who have changed recently, adjust their partyID based on today's news. They are just that much on the fence."
I always thought party ID had to do more with registraion than media driven opinion shifts. If you're right what is the use of asking party id in a separate poll when it simply means "who are you voting for" ?
@Cora,
Thanks for the repost, RR collects Political Commentary from both sides of the aisle. Froma Harrop is a democratic leaning journalist from Rhode Island.
Posting such things on his website might be Scott Rasmussen's attempt to show some neutrality, but having seen the depth of passion from some on this blog that Scott has right wing bias, I doubt if this is an indicator that Rasmussen is abandoning his current positions on McCain.
Oops. Math error. Obama +3.14
Obama is Pi!
I am not running for Vice President, but I was an elected Library Trustee and read the news. I also will be staying in a Holiday Inn Express tonight.
The simplest definition to what the Bush Doctrine is is that it is a policy supporting pre-emptive attack against hostile, un-democratic regimes with possible WMD programs. I did NOT have to look that up, either. But I suppose that just makes me an "elitist".
I like the idea of surrogates holding town hall type meetings. I remember changing my views about the Vietnam war when I was just walking back from my lunch on a campus and I saw a sign "Teach-In". I was curious and listened for the next hour. Maybe we need "Teach-Ins" now
Nate,
Show us what the model would have looked like if you'd kept the Covention Bounce adjustment, please?!!!
"The simplest definition to what the Bush Doctrine is is that it is a policy supporting pre-emptive attack against hostile, un-democratic regimes with possible WMD programs. I did NOT have to look that up, either. But I suppose that just makes me an "elitist"."
Essentially, he added that a threat does not have to be "imminent" for the U.S. to respond to it.
Has anyone pointed out how late NM returns come in? Sometimes the results have been too late to include NM in the morning edition of major newspapers. This seems to be an ongoing problem as far back as 96, and given the likelihood of a Kerry+IA+NM+CO scenario, we're in for another long and contentious night.
McCain has a less than positive reputation with Native nations. In AZ,he has typically ignored Native nations and not consulted nor worked with them at all. The Navajo Nation in particular has complained for many years about McCain's persistent snubbing of them (the Navajo Nation extends over four states including AZ and NM).
Native nations typically skew Democratic. There are some exceptions to that, however. For example, NM tribes tend to be more conservative and pro-business than you find elsewhere. So while I would expect the Dems to win the Native vote in NM, it likely wouldn't be by the same blow-out margins you would tend to see elsewhere.
I should also say Palin has a very poor reputation amongst Native Alaskans. This is known by tribes in the lower 48.
BTW, I'm a longtime Native activist volunteering for te Obama campaign.
Obama will win New Mexico in a close election. To me the question is what's the crossover tipping point state? Iowa and New Mexico want to be blue. The Kerry states want to stay blue. All of the other states want to stay red and will have to be pried away. Which one is the magic. If the election were held today Obama wins in landslide fashion rolling up most of the swing states. But, if we're back to a virtual tie nationally come elction day what flips toget him 269 or 270? As of now it seems his potential flips in order are something like this (Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, Ohio, Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, Montana, "Omaha". In a tied landscape Obama might have trouble holding onto the naturally blue states. The most likely flips are either in the midwest or northwest. Potential flips (tipping points) for McCain in a tied popular landscape (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Oregon, Washington, New Hampshire). I think it's safe to say Obama's most likel;y fip is not the 27 electoral votes in Florida and McCain's is probably not the 21 in Pennsylvania. If either flipped though it would almost assure victory. Plouffe has a lot of reasons to commit to the possibility of spending about $40 million in Florida that have nothing to do with the likelihood of flipping it.
FloridaGOP,
i agree that Nate is not biased. That's the reason we are here. He is conducting this in a fair and objective manner.
@Cora
Rasmussen Reports determines its partisan weighting targets through a dynamic weighting system that takes into account the state’s voting history, national trends, and recent polling in a particular state or geographic area.---
Basically, the only thing that really changes is what the people said was their PartyID when they were polled
Obama's been lying too much lately. I'm going to have to go with McCain. He's got integrity at least.
Lesser of two evils, by far.
#1 Palin is a joke
#2 McCain knows nothing about the economy
These two things are a gigantic mountain to overcome for McCain.
What's the margin of error in the weighting polls? It seems weird to change all of your weighting for a week when it could just be a statistical blip.
bad poet: HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH HAH
Sorry, it just slipped out.
Bad Poet said...
Obama's been lying too much lately. I'm going to have to go with McCain. He's got integrity at least.
Lesser of two evils, by far.
talking about integrity here my suggestion to start some homework:
http://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/1989-11-29/news/mccain-the-most-reprehensible-of-the-keating-five/1
it's a good introduction to the
KEATING FIVE story.
"He's got integrity at least."
He does? It's about time he got some.
Did he get a good deal on Amazon or something?
" The Kerry states want to stay blue. All of the other states want to stay red and will have to be pried away. "
I don't think that's quite clear, and I wish people would quit trying to oversimplify things in this manner.
Although I believe Michigan and Pennsylvania will be fine, I can see why people might think they are potential tipping points for McCain.
Colorado certainly isn't "wanting to stay red," it's a tossup in the truest sense.
Honestly, in my opinion, people are focusing too much on states. I think the national polling will move the state polling enough to be decisive.
Three Deap Thots:
1. Nobody knows what Rasmussen is doing for weighting for state polls. It shouldn't be related to the national numbers.
2. West Virginia voted for Dukakkis. I can't believe that Obama couldn't win it if they'd put serious effort into it.
3. No reason to think that Diebold and ES&S support McCain. Bush and Hagel, yes. But there are ties to some Democrats as well.
"2. West Virginia voted for Dukakkis. I can't believe that Obama couldn't win it if they'd put serious effort into it."
If by 'serious effort' you mean skin lightening, then I agree. Otherwise, the comparison is invalid.
He might still win it but I doubt it's worth any serious effort.
I can't decide if this election is more complicated or more simple than it's being perceived.
It's either a cruising Obama win or a flip-tastic orgy where NH and Michigan are red and Virginia and Indiana are blue and the clear "paths to victory" are all jumbled up.
Meanwhile, RCP dropped the last of its McCain +3 and +4 national polls, and Obama is at +1.7. He's been gaining about 46 basis points every day for ten days. He can't possibly keep doing this for much longer.
"Meanwhile, RCP dropped the last of its McCain +3 and +4 national polls, and Obama is at +1.7. He's been gaining about 46 basis points every day for ten days. He can't possibly keep doing this for much longer."
If the next set of Rasmussen weights are in his favor, there might be a little more room in there.
Now here's some number-cooking:
"http://www.chicagobreakingnews.com/2008/09/kraft-replaces-aig-in-dow.html"
InkStain said...
" The Kerry states want to stay blue. All of the other states want to stay red and will have to be pried away. "
I don't think that's quite clear, and I wish people would quit trying to oversimplify things in this manner.
All I'm saying is it feels like if the popular vote is dead-even, it would be a big assumption to push any of the 2004 states into the other column with the exception of New Mexico and Iowa. Pennsylvania, Michigan, Colorado and Virginia (and possibly Nevada and New Hampshire) are possibilities, but in my opinion they would all have to be pried away from the other side. I think Obama would win in a landslide if the election were held today.
InkStain said...
I can't decide if this election is more complicated or more simple than it's being perceived.
It's either a cruising Obama win or a flip-tastic orgy where NH and Michigan are red and Virginia and Indiana are blue and the clear "paths to victory" are all jumbled up.
Definitely possible with the "Palin Effect" added in, Obama could flip Florida, Virginia, Indiana, and Colorado but lose Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and New Hampshire. It probably more chaotic and less simple than it seemed before.
Pennsylvania and Michigan are much closer than Iowa.
I don't think either flips, but they'll flip before Iowa does.
Am I the only person who thinks that John McCain and his campaign are making it sound like he believes that Spain means to do us harm?
Couldn't they have easily come out today and said that McCain certainly supports our NATO alliance with Spain and that he looks forward to working with the nation on eliminating terror and evil from the world?
Not trying to reach here, just trying to frame what next Friday's foreign policy debate my look like.
Adam asked why yard signs are a difficult issue for local campaign offices. For that matter, this answer applies to bumper stickers, too.
The yard sign and bumper sticker are no longer "budgetable" for campaigns or practical. In an age where television ads, internet ads, and cyber-organizing rule, you have to depend on in-kind contributions for luxuries like yard signs and bumper stickers. 20 years ago, yard signs mattered. Today, they are something that is sold online or, if the local office is lucky, a local printer donates.
Their effectiveness is minor compared to the newer media a local office should be using. GOTV and information rule today.
Someone earlier asked why campaign offices do not like yard signs. It isn't because they don't like getting them to you and setting them up. Far from it. Yard signs are a dinosaur in an age where television and internet ads rule. Smart campaigns wait for a local donor to donate the money or print signs in-kind before they start a yard drop program. If you want yard signs, donate them. Same thing with bumper stickers. You don't spend your campaign money on it.
EmonOkari said...
...with that said:
My volunteer partner had an interesting take yesterday. She spoke about winning Florida as an 'icing on the cake' game-winner. But not actually the 'main goal'. This 'distracting goal', she explained, was to force McCain to heavily defend Florida. The 11 major media markets do make it VERY expensive. She surmised that if McCain has to respond in the state and invest heavily, that it gives the Obama campaign a spending advantage in the smaller market states. She also spoke about a possible 'head-fake' where Plouffe 'opens up' and shows everyone the Florida budget to try and scare the McCain Camp into big investments of their own.
Emonkari, it's not that simple in my opinion. For Ploiffe to say we have plans to spend $39.8MM over the last 7 weeks in Florida to try to flip it he accomplishes 3 things at least. #1 is like you said a potential head fake to force the McCain camp to defend with finite resources, but the other 2 are probably more important. #2 If you tell your donors we need huge dollars and effort o your part to do everything
we can to win the battleground, you're more likely to give. Florida being the largest battleground, most expensive, biggest prize and one prescient to Dems from 2000 makes the flock say yeah we're going for it! And it won't be cheap. This is actually probably the most important thing it accomplishes, and it's subtle. #3 The last piece of the equation is yes 27 electoral votes flipped virtually guarantees victory. It's the only potnetial Obama flip that would guarantee him victory. It's also the only prize that individually staves off some blue defections (ie Pennsylvania for example). If they can win Florida, they know it's over. That's the only state they cna say that about. It is possible given the new landscape we're look at that Florida is a tipping point. It's worth the investment if you have the money and time. All that being said, I hope they pour resources into the Midwest. I trust Plouffe.
New SUSA out of Georgia has McCain up 16 points, but if there's anything Obama can take from it:
- The polling was done as the economic crisis was unfolding, not after we saw all of the fallout
- He strongly underperformed among young voters
Still, a nice result for Mac.
I agree with all the negatives about yard signs, most importantly, they are a cop out for supporters.
On the other hand, yard signs and bumper stickers can push up name recognition, which might be a problem for state and local candidates.
Some state and local candidates can increase name recognition by vigorous door knocking. However, if you have to run at large in a big jurisdiction then yard signs and bumper stickers can be helpful.
Gallup Daily
O: 48
M: 44
Frist?
Celebrate good times, come on!
Glad to see the road show hit New Mexico. Having lived in NM for 27 years before moving to OH, I do miss the diversity of cultures and New Mexican food. I have lived all over NM including Albuquerque (3 times), Hobbs, Los Alamos (near Espanola)and Grants (one son born in Gallup). with family in Silver City, T or C, Las Cruces, Grants and Albuquerque. I would like to see you hit some of the Red parts of NM as well as talk to what the Native Americans think of Mr. Palin's native roots. It is such a diverse state in people, culture, environment and economy. From the Oil fields of the Permian basin, gas fields of Farmington, coal mines of McKinnley, former Uranium mines of Cibola, copper mines of Silver city, chili fields of Hatch, 3 major Air Force Bases, White Sands missile range, ranch lands of the rural areas and UFO invasion of Roswell. It's Hispanic population is also very unique as most are not 1st generation Mexican unlike TX, NV, CA, AZ, CO. These are Spanish and Mexican/Indian descendents who have roots in NM for hundreds of years. A much different voter than the majority of Hispanics.
This is why NM is such s fluid state when it comes to voting.
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Very belated, but I very much enjoyed this coverage. Grew up (3-18) in Gallup where we're used to not mattering to the media. And the photos are gorgeous.
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