9.20.2008

On the Road: Durango/Cortez, Colorado

“In the whole eastern dark wall of the Divide this night there was silence and the whisper of the wind, except in the ravine where we roared; and on the other side of the Divide was the great Western Slope, and the big plateau that went to Steamboat Springs, and dropped and led you to the Colorado desert and the Utah desert; all in darkness now as we fumed and screamed in our mountain nook, mad drunken Americans in the mighty land.”

– Jack Kerouac, “On the Road”

Work Horse - BrettMarty.com


Al Gore and John Kerry did not have field operations in Durango, Colorado. Barack Obama is here -- in force. It's a buoyant, bubbling crowd of enthusiastic volunteers. We ran into waves of Saturday canvassers, including family groups going out with their kids to knock on doors in the shadow of the stunning San Juan Mountains. We followed a few of these volunteers as they knocked on doors, registered voters, and signed them up to request a mail-in ballot.

Voter registration deadline in Colorado is October 6. Registered voters may request mail-in ballots up until October 28, and Democrats are definitely placing a large emphasis on mail-in voting because it continually reduces the universe of remaining voters who need to be turned out on Election Day. A reduced universe allows for more efficient and targeted use of resources. It also allows the campaigns to see which precincts (Democratic-leaning or Republican-leaning) are getting their ballots in early. That also permits an efficient, as-necessary shifting of ground game resources as Election Day closes in.

We spoke with Alex Max, a 15-year old Durango High student and Obama's Southwest Colorado Youth Outreach Coordinator. It turns out that Alex had logged onto Barack Obama's website more than any other person in La Plata County, and one day he got a call from the Obama field organizer here who asked whether he'd be willing to help coordinate high school seniors in youth turnout. There are approximately 300 students in the DHS senior class, and of those only some have birthdays before November 4. Alex has registered 30-50 students to vote, so you do the math on how effective Alex' work has been. They've been reaching out to other high school students to set up similar groups.

Alex Max - BrettMarty.com


We left the Obama HQ at 1021 Main St. and walked over to the Republican County field office in the Prudential building at 700 Main St. It was closed. We spoke with the woman who works at the front desk for Prudential and she described lots and lots of folks shuttling in and out for bumper stickers and yard signs -- the tyrannical yard signs of organizers' nightmares -- but not staying for phone banking, as she almost always notices them leaving quickly.

It may be that Republicans see La Plata County as a lost cause -- it has been getting bluer and bluer. We may find a massive Republican effort in Colorado Springs, and we'll check Obama's operation there too. In La Plata in 2004, John Kerry beat George Bush won by 1,695 votes, a slightly less than 7% margin. But in 2000, Bush beat Gore by 2,121 votes, or more than 10% (Nader got nearly 12% of the vote, and less than 1% in 2004). Dole beat Clinton by over 1,500 votes (Perot got 8.1%), after Clinton eked out a 391-vote win over the elder Bush in 1992 (helped by 26.2% of the vote going to Perot). But the county is growing -- 15,613 votes in 1992, 17,321 in 1996, 20,490 in 2000, and 25,513 in 2004.

Over in neighboring much redder Montezuma County (home of Mesa Verde National Park) we looked in on the ground game. Bush beat Kerry by over 3,100 (6,988 to 3,867) more than doubled up Gore, 6,158 to 2,556 (Nader took 5.7%). Dole cruised over Clinton by 1,597 out of 7,831 total cast, even with Perot taking 10.6% of the vote.

There was more success with the Republican field operation in Cortez. The Republican Party office was open until about 4pm today, and several volunteers operated the office. They expressed pride in their all-volunteer status, and insisted that Obama needed paid staff because nobody would have volunteered full time for him here. A rotating group of approximately 10 volunteers manage the office 1-3 at a time throughout the week. While we were there, one man came in to find McCain pins.



The Obama group in Cortez did not exactly strike us as lacking in the volunteer effort or in grassroots energy. In terms of numbers, there was more going on at the Obama office, which is open 9 to 9 every day of the week. In the twenty minutes we spent at the office, we saw a local woman come in to register and take a form for her daughter. Another 70-something woman returned with her completed phone sheet and took another one home. Two phone bankers made dials. Another man, who volunteers twice a week, had taken upon himself the task of blind-knocking his trailer park and was getting a high contact and success rate.

We tagged along with a canvasser on each side here in town. We got into town around 4, which was too late to spend much time with the McCain canvasser (they were closing shop but made a kind extra effort for us). While we were with the Obama canvasser, he knocked on a door where the voter wasn't home -- and was apparently a Republican -- but by chance the daughter and her husband were home, were both Obama supporters, registered to vote and requested mail-in ballots. She was a teacher, and she took a handful of forms to register her students. That teacher may not have taken the initiative to register to vote, or she might have. The point is that by fanning out into the field and putting in the work, campaigns find voters who wouldn't have otherwise voted.

But it takes real work. It takes showing up. And it takes a volunteer sacrifice of time and energy. It takes wanting it. That work is heroic.

Tonight we're headed up to Grand Junction in deep-red Mesa County, mad drunken Americans in the mighty land. (Well, Brett anyway.)

The Field - BrettMarty.com

450 comments

Real Joe said...

wow

Sammy said...

Great work, guys. It's fascinating being able to read about the ground games both campaigns have up. Also, Brett's photos are amazing--impressive quality!

Are all three of you (Nate, Sean and Brett) out, or is it only Sean and Brett?

Dave Barnes said...

Nate is a fucking genius.
This is THE BEST website for 2008 numbers.
Nate is awesome.
He has hired some really great people to collect data and analyze it.
I hope Nate is getting rich from this election.

adam said...

great work guys.

Wa7th said...

Sweeeet.

I smell a book in the works.

bjb1968 said...

Dems at it again:

"Sources tell CBS 2 HD that a decision to disinvite Palin from the high profile rally after Clinton pulled out in a huff came as the result of intense pressure from Democrats.
“This is insulting. This is embarrassing, especially to Gov. Palin, to me and I think it should be to every single New Yorker,” Assemblyman Dov Hikind, D-Brooklyn, told CBS 2 HD.
Sources say the axes were out for Palin as soon as Sen. Clinton pulled out because she did not want to attend the same event as the Republican vice presidential candidate…
The groups sponsoring the rally against Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad speaking at the UN were reportedly told, “it could jeopardize their tax exempt status” if they had Palin and not Clinton or Democratic VP candidate Joe Biden on hand…
“It’s an absolute shame that this has happened,” Hikind said. “To threaten organizations … to threaten the Conference of Presidents that if you don’t withdraw the invitation to Gov. Palin we’re going to look into your tax exempt status … that’s McCarthyism.”…
“I’m absolutely appalled at the behavior of the Democrats,” said Bob Kunst of Defenders.net. “I’m a Democrat and for the first time in my life I’m going to vote Republican. I can’t take it anymore.”"

Deadpixel said...

Nate can you either confirm or deny a polling firm "Home field advantage effect?"

You say Setzer has the best Iowa numbers because they are from Iowa, would the same hold true for ppp in North Carolina, or other polling firm based in other states?

I'm going to go out on a limb and guess Zogby isn't located in California...

Mule Rider said...

McCain winning Colorado is about as likely as Obama winning Florida.

eve said...

"And I can't wait to get on the road again.
On the road again

Goin' places that I've never been.
Seein' things that I may never see again"
Willie Nelson
:)

I haven't been to New Mexico or Colorado in a long time. Your post and the pics make me want to jump in the car and go.

Aren't people everywhere just so great?

cubuffalo said...

LaPlata County is definitely a "blue" county. Californians moved in by the SUV load during the 80s and 90s. They bought their piece of heaven in Colorado but failed to realize they bought their 10-40 acres ranchettes on top of the 4th largest natural gas field in the nation (drilling began in LaPlata County in the 1950s). They weren't smart enough to purchase the mineral interest and now their bent out of shape about all the drilling out there in La Plata County. Anyway Durango area will go for Obama, but McCain will take the state by 3-4 points. My opinion from one who has lived all my 47 years in either Denver or Durango.
Peace, out.

STepper said...

Nate

These ground zero reports are great. The one thing the polls don't report is the GOTV ground game, and you're bringing it home. While BO shouldn't assume anything, and keep on doing what's he's doing, I think the polls are unerreporting where he really is (or will be) because of the ground game, but there's no metric for that. I think this is going to be a landslide. I hope so. What an amazing result in a society which, only a few years ago, was permeated with racism.

@bjb1968 @9:15 pm - Another lipstick issue with no legs. Nobody cares. The story was DoA. It's not going to work. People are issue-oriented this time. They''ve started to pay attention since McCain told us how good the economy was three hours before he told us (as it was enfolding before our very eyes) how awful things were. People are paying attention to McCain opposing the AIG takeover, and then favoring it. And criticizing Obama for asking to know the details before he signed on one way or the other.

The fat lady is applying her lip stick and approaching the microphone.

Jen said...

Nader received impressive numbers in both counties, above his national totals. Colorado gave him his eighth highest percentage in 2000.

I find this surprising. For whatever reason, this makes me think CO is more likely for Obama than before, and I am not sure why. It is almost a hunch, not very scientific, I know.

Mule Rider said...

People are paying attention to McCain opposing the AIG takeover

I hope those same people were watching the Today Show when Joe Biden vehemently opposed it as well, only to later change positions.

Continue to Spread the Word!!! said...

Mule, the polls in CO are close. The polls in FL really aren't.

Here is one I may have missed in the comments:

University of Cincinnati Ohio General Election

* John McCain 48% (48%)
* Barack Obama 42% (44%)

Alex S. said...

OMG!! The Obama campaign is converting the youth into communists!!!!!!!!!111elevenonehundredelevenandone!!
[/troll]

Well, this was a great impression how the Obama campaign is hunting for every vote. And the McCain campaign is deluding itself if they look down on Obama´s forces of volunteers. Btw, I hope you will move to Omaha soon. Keep up the great work!

STepper said...

Equinus asinus x caballus Rider posted
"I hope those same people were watching the Today Show when Joe Biden vehemently opposed it as well, only to later change positions."

Fetch the link for me, will you, Muley? And while Biden may have said that, (1) he's not running for President and (2) more importantly, he didn't declare (as McCain had previously done dozens of times in his stump speech), on Monday September 15, how fundamentally strong the economy was.

Jen said...

I think what annoys me most about "conitnue to spread the word!!!!" is how many freakin' exclamaion points he put at the end of his screen name.

I think there is an inverse relationship between IQ and how many exclamation points you put at the end of a sentence.

STepper said...

@Continue to Spread the Word

You need to use Ohio polls that are post 9-16. Earlier individual polls that you select do not reflect what's going on today, even though they may still be considered in this site's functional analysis.

In any event, just keeping looking at pre 9-16 polls and act accordingly. I sure hope the Republicans are, but I doubt it. McCain's internal polling people know exactly what is going on and they are excreting adobe blocks right now.

I think they realize that McCain's wild card pick of Sarah Palin has backfired on them and that Mitt Romney should have been McCain's running mate, as unpalatable as he might have been personally to McCain. But running the country isn't a personal thing. It often requires sacrifice and, yes, patriotism. McCain lost his a month ago.

A McCain-Romney ticket would be up 5% around the country right now. I'm sure glad McCain picked the lip-sticked pit bull instead. (Was that something sexist I just wrote?)

Mule Rider said...

Biden Opposes Bailout then Recants

I was watching that morning. Be careful placing a shield over him because "he's not running" as that might discredit some of your criticism for Palin.

McCain saying the "fundamentals are strong/sound" was stupid to say in the campaign, but overall, he's pretty much telling the truth. Truth be damned when it's a soundbite that'll help lead your man to victory.

weesa523 said...

My understanding from everything I've read was that they ALL (Obama, McCain, Biden)* were against the AIG bailout, but all agreed it was a necessary to avoid complete fallout.

*Piggygate Palin is still sequestered from all media, especially when it pertains to giving any thoughts on anything.

eponymous said...

jen,


Hey I used to use that rule back in junior high! We had a school "newspaper" (term very loosely used) in which it was pretty easy to tell the quality of the article by the appropriateness of punctuation used.

On an unrelated topic, I hardly think Colorado is decided. It seems to be running basically neutral (as opposed to say Ohio which is running a few points towards McCain vs. national polls). So if McCain wrestles back the national lead I wouldn't be surprised at all if he won Colorado.

STepper said...

Muley - Thanks for the link. I'll look in a moment.

I'm not criticizing Palin, BTW. I think she was the perfect pick for McCain. I think every voter in the United States should be required (forced at gun point, if necessary), to watch her entire "interview" with Sean Hannity.

@Weesa523 - Obama voted present on the AIG bailout because he didn't have enough info. You can't sign on to any Bush administration proposals or reports of any kind these days without reading all the fine print and back up. And the real intelligence info.

Jen said...

stepper-

I agree that McCain/Romney would be a far more formidable ticket than McCain/Palin, but 5 points? 5 over Obama or his numbers would be 5 points better? I think maybe he would be 2.5 over where he is at now.

My reasoning is he loses a point with Palin and may gain 1.5 with Romney. I am just speculating though.

Good point on being careful what you vote for when it is being pushed by Bush.

Mule Rider said...

Sorry to make a cross statement. I shouldn't assume you have or will.

But I've seen others make double-standard type comments about Biden (or in some cases, Obama) yet hold Palin to a different level of expectations.

She is highly unprepared, though, for the job.

To my theory that the Rep party is tanking this year, I don't think a 72-year old windbag and an Alaskan hockey mom are the best the party has to offer.

Mike Huckabee, Bobby Jindal, and a few others are far more charismatic and better (and more honest) leaders than these two.

InkStain said...

The fundamentals of the economy are not strong, they are in deep trouble.

And I"m still against the bailout, though I understand why many Congressmen changed their minds after the realistic talk Paulsen gave them.

John David said...

Mule Rider

McCain Opposes Bailout then Recants

The "fundamentals" quote is not the only stupid thing that McCain has been saying this week.

STepper said...

Muley

I hate to split hairs (but I am, after all, a Harvard-trained lawyer), but the takeover of AIG wasn't a "bailout," We own 80% of the company. (Who woulda thunk with the Neocons in control. Of course, "it took a Nixon to open up relations with China." But that may be Neolithic to all you young whippersnappers here.)

So, we are now in the mortgage business, the insurance business and the real estate business (with all the REOs we're about to acquire). It's a great country, isn't it? From the United States to Sweden in only 7 years. (I would have put some exclamation points at the end, but then Jen and Eponymous would think less of me. I was a great admirer of Eats Shoots and Leaves, Eppy, by the way.)

Continue to Spread the Word!!! said...

Don't attack me. That polls is BRAND NEW!

Link: http://www.springfieldnewssun.com/hp/content/oh/story/news/local/2008/09/21/sns092108poll.html

They did a poll last week that had McCain up 48-44.

PUBLISHED FOR PAPER: Sunday, September 21, 2008

In the battle for Ohio's 20 electoral votes, Republican presidential nominee John McCain holds a 48 percent to 42 percent lead over Democratic opponent Barack Obama — but with lots of time left in a volatile race, according to the first Dayton Daily News/Ohio Newspaper Poll.

It hurts to realize Ohio is red ain't it! I've been saying that for months now!

Michael said...

Sean and Brett:

So glad to see another installment in this great series! And what gorgeous views! Colorado is so beautiful!

Sean, you have to check out how the Democratic folks on the ground are dealing with the de-registration and re-registration of thousands of voters (about 1/5 of the registered voters in the state!) who were thrown off the voter rolls by the Republican Secretary of State in Colorado. Ask them how they're dealing with the problem. Also, see if you can ask the Republicans how they plan on challenging voters at polling places.

VegnaBlitz said...

Sean or Nate,

Why do organizers hate yard signs? I asked in another thread two days ago, and didn't see an answer there...Sorry if it's been answered elsewhere.

Mule Rider said...

John David,

I didn't need to see that. I knew damn well Johnny Mac had flip-flopped. You're not telling me anything new about that old dirtbag. I was pointing out, though, in a very precise manner to those who were piling it on McCain about his flip-flop, that Biden had done the same thing.

InkStain,

To avoid starting a huge argument, the debate over whether or not the "fundamentals of the economy are sound/strong" is a highly subjective topic.

You can quote various stats on either side of the aisle to make the case.

And it depends on your definition of "fundamentals."

What if a tornado blew through your neighborhood, tearing shit up all around your house, knocking down stuff all around your porch, blowing your shingles off, knocking a few windows off and some of your siding, but the inside was still very liveable, you're able to get power going within 24 hours, and nobody in your household or the neighborhood lost their lives.

Silly analogy I realize, but on the one hand, yeah, shit is all crazy and blown around due to the tornado, but the "base" of your house is intact and able to be lived in.

The economy is far from being in one of its "boom" years, but it's also well ahead of its "gloom" years.

To me, that means the fundamentals are sound/strong.

InkStain said...

"Why do organizers hate yard signs? I asked in another thread two days ago, and didn't see an answer there...Sorry if it's been answered elsewhere."

They cost a ton of money and don't do much good.

Jon said...

Great work Sean and Brett, this is by far my favorite series in this site. I enjoy the Kerouac and love the photos!

Oh yeah, to all the partisans who visit this site, If you've learned anything over these past 3 months, this election is far from decided.

The polls could easily shift to McCain as fast as they have shifted to Obama due to anything from a big Obama gaffe, a big terror attack or a bad Obama debate performance.

McCain could also have another week like this past one and the polls could be back to where they are now.

In other words, something big could happen to shift the polls just like this past week.

I don't believe the partisan conservatives here realize the magnitude of this economic crisis, and I don't believe the partisan progressives here realize the social significance of what they are asking working-class white and latino Americans to do: vote for a black man named Barack Obama for president of the United States.

That's why this election will be tight all the way to the end.

InkStain said...

"The economy is far from being in one of its "boom" years, but it's also well ahead of its "gloom" years.

To me, that means the fundamentals are sound/strong."

I think of it more as a risk. Things aren't going to be just kinda dreary for a year or two.

They are either going to collapse spectacularly or add a long-term burden to our national deficit, providing a small but consistent drag for many, many years.

The bad economic situation is much more complex than just our immediate situation.

To use your analogy, the problem is that we may be seeing a fundamental shift in weather patterns that means you are in line for a ton more tornados, whether or not this one hurt your house.

brooklynkevin said...

Please keep posting these. I'm inspired on a daily basis by all that we are doing. But this post really hit my heart. Thanks, Nate, and thanks to you all.

Jen said...

CTSTW spread the "word" without double, triple or quadruple exclamation points. Still there were many sentences with exclamation points at the end. Some progress is better than no progress at all.

Eponymous,

I use that rule for forwarded emails too. Anything with the subject line "Too Cute!!!!!" or the like gets immediately deleted without opening it.

Ed M. said...

I think they realize that McCain's wild card pick of Sarah Palin has backfired on them and that Mitt Romney should have been McCain's running mate

As the entire scope of the mess sinks in, a clinical sort of overview comes in from orbit: We should all head to Wall Street and burn the whole thing to the ground. I don't think Mitt helps that. Palin has become a joke and a cypher but Mitt is the enemy right now. He's the guy who needs a punch in a junk.

They should have grabbed Huckabee. He'd have some folksy crap to peddle to the hoopleheads while they watched the Romney class eat us alive.

InkStain said...

Jon - I'll keep saying this: How many elections shift from one party leading to the other winning in the last month, once you are clear of the convention bounces?

Answer: almost none.

Michael said...

VegnaBlitz:

Smartypants made this excellent post on the Gallup, NM thread right here on Sept. 18:

About 15 years ago I ran a Congressional campaign. I hate yard signs.

1. They cost a lot of money to print.
2. They cost more resources to assemble (volunteer time and cost of wood).
3. They are a royal pain in the ass to assemble -- staple guns and splinters, that's all I'm saying.
4. They are a logistical nightmare to distribute - again, volunteer time that could be put to more productive use.
5. Some asshole from the other campaign is likely to knock down, steal or deface a large number of your yardsigns (repeat complaints 1-4 to replace).
6. After the election the campaign is usually responsible for taking down signs. Since volunteers become pretty scarce after election day, the campaign staff get stuck with this task. It sucks even more if you just lost the election.

God, I hate yard signs.

stunney said...

Great stuff! I've been to Durango and Cortez!

I've lived in California for 20 years. I'm a Scot by birth and upbringing, and am a resident alien, and still a UK, not a US, citizen.

Thanks to the 538 crew for all their excellent work.

Go Obama/Biden!

STepper said...

@Continue to Spread, etc.

I just looked at the poll. It's not "brand new," though newly reported. It's for the period Sept. 12-16, aka the Ice Ages.

Read the story and you'll see.

With all due respect, based on what's happened this week the poll is essentially worthless. But I hope McCain's people think it's current and respond accordingly. However, I think they know what's going on since, unlike the headliners in their campaign, they can actually think beyond the sound bites and stump speeches.

@Mule Rider - I hate to disagree with you on "fundamentals," but I went to the Harvard B School, too(combined program), and the "fundamentals" of a domestic economy include as one of its most important components the liquidity of the markets and the willingness of those with money to lend it out. This crisis threatened to dry up liquidity which is not a small thing. Most economists agree that it was the primary reason for the last world-wide depression. We thought it could never happen again and lookee lookee. This is what terrified Paulson, et al. into saving the world from another depression. This crisis was an economic Cuban Missle Crisis and we may have avoided disaster.

Mule Rider said...

InkStain,

I can agree on those points for the most part and respect your view.

But I'm still getting on the fact that it's hard to make too much out of such a nebulous statement.

From a campagining/election standpoint - yes, a very stupid thing to say when a lot more people are having a rough go of it than in previous "good" cycles.

But from a "truth" standpoint - like I said, each person can theoretically interpret his own truth about how fundamentally strong the economy is. Not to say that everyone is an informed economist. But the vast majority of people are employed. The vast majority are enjoying a very nice standard of living relative to the rest of the world and compared to the USA of 25, 50, or 100 years ago. There are numerous threats, yes, but numerous opportunities as well.

Michael said...

Jon, the evidence is very strong that a sizable majority of Hispanic voters are quite prepared to vote for Barack Obama for President. I see no signs for concern on the part of Democrats or hope on the part of Republicans for that to change, barring some cataclysmic change in the overall nature of the presidential race. It would appear that the only real question is just how BIG the Hispanic majority for Obama will be.

Subterranean said...

Dave Barnes exclaimed:

"I hope Nate is getting rich from this election."

I also want only good things for our benefactor, but you needn't worry about him getting rich...Nate is easily a millionaire from online poker alone.

Sean Quinn -

Nice post! Have you considered using any road scenes from Lolita? E.g.: "And as we pushed westward, patches of what the garage-man called 'sage brush' appeared, and then the mysterious outlines of table-like hills, and then red bluffs ink-blotted with junipers, and then a mountain range, dun grading into blue, and blue into dream, and the desert would meet us with a steady gale, dust, gray thorn bushes, and hideous bits of tissue paper mimicking pale flowers among the prickles of wind-tortured withered stalks all along the highway; in the middle of which there sometimes stood simple cows, immobilized in a position (tail left, white eyelashes right) cutting across all human rules of traffic."

<3 Nabokov soooo much.

Ed M. said...

It would appear that the only real question is just how BIG the Hispanic majority for Obama will be.

Massive.

I work in media research and Cuban papers in Florida have called time out on making Chavez the Devil to report on ICE raids that you will never hear about.

If you have lost the Cuban terrorists, you've lost just about everyone of Hispanic origin.

Michael said...

Mule Rider,

I would argue that even if McCain were merely an economist, "the fundamentals of the economy are strong" would be a stupid statement at this time, unless elaborated with specific explanations of what is not working and what is. But since he's actually running for president, his remarks demonstrate utter insensitivity to the millions of people who have already been seriously damaged by this economy, plus the much larger number who have been somewhat damaged and are fearful of a possible calamity. Considering that one of the reasons George HW Bush lost reelection was that he refused to use the word "recession" for such a long time and showed he was "out of touch" by expressing amazement at a supermarket scanner, it would stand to reason that McCain is in very big trouble with the voters for having made such a stupid statement.

Continue to Spread the Word!!! said...

OHIO IS RED.
Get over it... Wow, maybe not a 6 point edge, how bout a 3-4 point edge.

If Ohio isn't blue by now, why will it be come November. I told you folks, when he picked Biden, he lost Ohio. If he wanted to seal the deal, you pick HILLARY!

Ed M. said...

I hope Ohio stays red as hell, if I never have to hear about Scranton again I'll consider myself blessed.

Michael said...

Beautiful passage from Lolita, but using quotes from that title would project the wrong image.

Nate has gotten rich on online poker, or was that a joke?

eve said...

I think the republicans should have picked Huckabee over McCain. Evangelicals would have been very happy. Governors usually do better in presidential races than senators do. He is not too old and has far more personality than McCain.

I wonder why he didn't win.

Michael said...

Ed, I don't get it. You mean, you're voting Republican because you're annoyed at Biden talking about his home town? I assume you're fine with Palin talking about Wasilla?

Mule Rider said...

Michael,

I agree with just about everything you say, and I do believe the kicker lies in...

unless elaborated with specific explanations of what is not working and what is.

...which makes him seem aloof to every day people's real concerns.

I would argue that Obama has been guilty as well of getting by on rhetoric and making loaded statements without really defining what he's getting at or trying to accomplish, yet still exploiting the issue to his advantage for votes.

boulder-liberal said...

Sean-

Welcome to God's Country. I hope you make it up here to Boulder. Liberals as far a the eye can see. You could say paradise, really. If you come here, watch out for James Dobson's army of hypocrites when you pass through Colorado Springs. Pretty spooky place.

Ed M. said...

Not Scranton, whatever bumblefuck place in Ohio that Kerry and Bush fought over in 2004.

That whole region has problems if Obama loses there and wins I'll be happy.

VegnaBlitz said...

Thank you, Michael and InkStain.

Michael said...

Eve, I agree. Huckabee would have been a much more intelligent choice. He's more qualified, he is a socially conservative Evangelical with flexible (some Republicans say "left"!) views on economics and a strong populist streak, and he comes across well to a lot of people. He's superior to Palin by every measure I can think of, except that he isn't a beautiful woman. And while he's gaffe-prone, he doesn't have to lie through his teeth in order to campaign effectively.

jpindenver said...

I lived in Durango for 8 years ('94 to '00)- Nate's post brought back some memories. Great community. I'm not surprised that there's a strong grassroots effort there.

pizzuti said...

While you're in Colorado, make sure you check out the SEIU army in Denver as well as the other local independent groups working outside the campaign itself to elect Barack Obama.

STepper said...

@ Ed M.

Another interesting point -- about those ICE raids -- that is probably not reflected in the polls. It is known as the "Proposition 189 Effect."

California became permanently and irretrievably Democratic when Gov. Pete Wilson pushed through Prop. 189, a pretty draconian anti-illegal-immigrant piece of legislation which was obviously unconstitutional and ultimately determined to be so in court.

But the Hispanic community looked upon it as being anti-Hispanic, which was counter-intuitive since you'd think voting Hispanics would be in favor of such laws as they are, after all, US citizen whose jobs and fisc were being "protected" [exclamation point suppressed]. And the Hispanic vote rapidly became monolithically Democratic. And since that is the demographic of California's population that is growing the fastest, the Golden State will never be a red state again.

The Republicans learned from that lesson but sometimes you have to enforce the immigration laws, and if you're a Republican regime doing it, you're going to catch flack (and worse).

Ed M. said...

Ed, I don't get it. You mean, you're voting Republican because you're annoyed at Biden talking about his home town?

If you are talking to me, I volunteered for Obama's state senate campaign, his Senate campaign, and his presidential bid.

I'd like to see him lose in hillbilly land and win in the West. I'm sick of those rednecks having a hammerlock on policy. If they are red locks let 'em go....

Subterranean said...

michael queried:

"Nate has gotten rich on online poker, or was that a joke?"

No joke, Nate is an excellent Limit Hold'Em player, and cleaned up during the first few years of the online poker boom while the games were uber-soft.

Mule Rider said...

Michael,

I've heard Nate has done well at online poker, but I think the "millionaire" statement was an embellishment.

eve,

Huckabee would have been the best choice, but it's tough to say he'd really be polling better than McCain. You can bet your bottom dollar that he'd have run a much cleaner campaign than McCain, which may have helped his image among many people, but that may have turned it into a generic Republican type race, and he would have been outperformed simply on that end.

McCain, despite his out-of-touchness, has been far and away better at exploiting votes through rough campaigning and tactics.

I think too many people (in the Rep base) were afraid of Huckabee's populist, almost Democratic-esque, appeal on economic/tax issues.

But as a guy who's worked with overwhelming amounts of Democrats (even if they are conservative), he has a proven record of working across the aisle.

Michael said...

Mule Rider:

My perception is that Obama has been quite specific for a long time and that the claim that he has tried to get by on empty rhetoric is a Republican talking point. I assume you've looked through barackobama.com and read through all of his statements and proposals on issues?

Now, granted, there are certain degrees of specificity that a candidate shouldn't and can't give, like the exact composition of the Fiscal 2010 budget, because as we've seen, unforeseen expenses can explode the best-laid plans. But for a presidential candidate, I think Obama has been quite detailed and specific.

Jen said...

Only one exclamation point in the CTSTW post that time, even more progress.

I think that McCain saying the fundamentals were strong was not wise. However, the whole idea that one statement can change a campaign is silly in my opinion.

Unless that statement is something like, "Not guilty, Your Honor." That statement would likely be a game changer.

Michael said...

Ed, I'd like to see hillbillies vote for Obama, especially as I believe they would benefit economically from a Democratic administration. And I'd note that there was a recent poll showing Obama within 4 points in West Virginia. I wonder when Biden plans on campaigning there? I'd love for Obama to make a trip there, too, but of course, the campaign has to decide whether that's a good use of their time and resources.

Mule Rider said...

I think Obama has been quite detailed and specific

I think he's been mostly specific at simply laying the blame at the foot of Bush and the Republicans. Not that everything he says there is entirely inaccurate, but I'm getting at all of the class warfare rhetoric and other nonsense jargon he's used to build appeal.

Look, I'm not saying it's all him. I've been listening to politicians for years, and very few of them, in my opinion, have ever said anything worthwhile.

He has specifics that people are well aware of, but he has overplayed the "hope and change", "stakes are high", et al type bullshit. I get sick of hearing that kind of loaded talk.

STepper said...

Probably old news, but starting September McCain got his government $84M and turned over his $27M "balance" to the Republican Party. Obama "got" $77M (the money he had in the bank), and he gets to continue to raise it at the rate of maybe $60M @ month. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26809789/

While McCain is also raising some "compliance" money (to pay for 5% of his ad buys -- the disclaimer portions -- "I'm John McCain and I approved of this message"), it now becomes a race to raise money between the D and R parties (the Rs will win, of course), but also the Obama campaign.

So, as we already knew, advantage Obama. The negative slime machine is more difficult to execute "properly" when the other guy can call your "all in" bet and still have stacks of chips in front of him. (I decided to use a poker analogy since Nate apparently made his bones there.)

@Jen - One phrase has lost elections. Not recognizing who was behind the Iron Curtain was a gaffe that sank one incumbency. Do you remember which one?

Rhonda said...

Wow!! This website amazes me again.
Absolutely one of the best websites
I've seen. The story of Alex Max is amazing.It's heart warming.
The fact that you guys obviously are familour with Jack Kerouac, I'm just speechless. I followed part of the book myself.
I'm so greatful I heard about this website on the news a couple of months ago. I visit it more than nay other website several times a day. Nate, I hope you get lot's of money, for all of this. I'll help you with a donation, when I can. Some of your stories you've written about your travels make me almost cry. It's just a great feeling knowing these things about America.

Ed M. said...

Another interesting point -- about those ICE raids -- that is probably not reflected in the polls. It is known as the "Proposition 189 Effect."

It's weird, it's my job to read these things and when they come down on somewhere and mace people, someone dies in custody, etc.. it's a local story to the little paper that covers it. You will never hear this story on CNN or any other national outlet

It's a national story in the Spanish press, and it's front-page news. The Republicans have made themselves bigger hobgoblins than even Castro or the like to people who almost define themselves by an anti-Castro metric. It's incredible.

STepper said...

@Jen

Here's the link to Pres. Ford's gaffe, the one phrase that lost him the election. (Despite the Nixon pardon he was still ahead at this point. But not afterwards.)

http://afferentinput.blogspot.com/2008/03/mccain-ussr-not-in-poland.html

johnsonct5 said...

Michael,
I don't think the Neocons would have favored Huckabee. I think Sarah Palin is ideal for them - an empty vessel.

boulder-liberal said...

"I think that McCain saying the fundamentals were strong was not wise. However, the whole idea that one statement can change a campaign is silly in my opinion."

It will be a game-changer because it shows how out of touch and clueless this guy is. Combined with a ridiculous and reckless choice of a VP, we see what kind of decisions could be expected from McCain.

Michael said...

Jen, there have been campaigns that have been considered to have foundered on one gaffe. For example, the "macaca" remark by Allen in Virginia and a remark about then-Attorney General of New York Dennis Vacco that it was hard to demonstrate the effectiveness of the death penalty because researchers do not ''stand outside a bodega'' and ask ''the bandito'' if capital punishment deterred them from crime.

Others were clear contributing factors. I'm sure it hurt President Ford when he argued in a debate with Carter that Romania and Poland were not Soviet satellites and wouldn't be as long as he was President.

Bay Area Resident said...

Ed M, I agree with you on OH- let it go red and into the abyss as far as I'm concerned but make no mistake- that same hillbilly, "I'm making 50K and that means I'm rich and voting with the rich white republican party- Oh and btw I hate Californians" constituency is alive and well in the west in CO and NV and those people are JUST LIKE Scranton. Whats saving us, is the hispanic vote. VIVA OBAMAMOS!

As for CA never going republican again, just remember it is the republicans that left CA- not the other way around. CA is a fiscally conservative (low tax, pro biz) socially liberal state, still is, and will likely always be. That used to be republican! We have a republican governor, who the right wing base says is not a republican... oh, but he is, it is they that are not what they way be.

Ed M. said...

Ed, I'd like to see hillbillies vote for Obama, especially as I believe they would benefit economically from a Democratic administration. And I'd note that there was a recent poll showing Obama within 4 points in West Virginia.

Of course, I would to. I'm from Arkansas stock though. WV has a serious radical streak from the coal miners strike that I love. WV can come onboard.

Ohio? I don't know what's going on there but I'd love to win an election without trying to skim off the W vote there.

Jen said...

@Jen - One phrase has lost elections. Not recognizing who was behind the Iron Curtain was a gaffe that sank one incumbency. Do you remember which one?

_________________________

That is your theory on why Ford lost. My theory is anger at the Nixon pardon, tarnished Republican brand and a "different" type of politician. Except for the Nixon part, it could be 2008.

Michael said...

Mule Rider, you clearly haven't read Obama's statements and proposals on issues at barackobama.com. That means you are arguing from a position of ignorance. Wouldn't you rather argue from a position of knowledge?

Bay Area Resident said...

Don't know why any of you consider Huckabee to be the ideal VP for McCain- sure he's better than Caribou Barbie but neither of these delivers any swing states. ROMNEY would have delivered MI and if MI were red, Obama would be in a much different position today.

Michael said...

Jen, few people knew who Dennis Vacco was before the "bodega/bandito" comment. He had gotten in 4 years (?) earlier by appealing to anti-gay bigotry. After he made that comment, Hispanics voted against him in droves, electing Eliot Spitzer.

It's presumably true that it's a lot harder for a single gaffe to spell the political doom of a presidential candidate, because so many more people pay attention to presidential elections and have pet causes guiding their votes. But surely, single gaffes have been strong contributing factors at times.

Michael said...

Why are you sure Romney would have delivered Michigan?

Jen said...

It will be a game-changer because it shows how out of touch and clueless this guy is. Combined with a ridiculous and reckless choice of a VP, we see what kind of decisions could be expected from McCain.

_______________________________

On its own, no, I do not think it is a game changer, but with McCain not knowing how many houses he and his wife own and said wife wearing $300,000 outfits it contributes to a narrative that is already there.



Jen, there have been campaigns that have been considered to have foundered on one gaffe. For example, the "macaca" remark by Allen in Virginia and a remark about then-Attorney General of New York Dennis Vacco that it was hard to demonstrate the effectiveness of the death penalty because researchers do not ''stand outside a bodega'' and ask ''the bandito'' if capital punishment deterred them from crime

_______________________________

I am confused. You say "considered" to have foundered on one gaffe. Does that mean you agree that the gaffe was the culprit or not.

In the George Allen case, wasn't there some controversy with him and a love affair with the confederacy already? If that is the case, the macaca thing reinforced an idea that was there in the ether to begin with.

As to the other instance, I do not know the story whatsoever. I think the bandito thing could be an exception that would prove my rule. :)


Don't get me wrong; I would love for this to be a game changer and the beginning of the end for McCain, but I am not going to get my hopes up on this one.

Mule Rider said...

Wouldn't you rather argue from a position of knowledge?

Ah, but now we're getting to the heart of it. Some of the things he's been most "specific" on are issues I agree with him entirely on...it's a double-edged sword for me. I think he's exploited the use of loaded inspirational rhetoric in front of the masses, which irritates the hell out of me to see people swoon over politicians, and he's made detailed plans behind the scenes about a variety of issues that I simply don't think will work or are best for our country.

I won't bother you about it, though, because I've seen what he's about and to convince me otherwise would be an exercise in futility for you.

I'm a hybrid independent/conservative/libertarian who just doesn't find much in common with Mr. Obama.

Sorry, but it looks like he's got plenty of support without me. Thanks, but no thanks.

STepper said...

@Boulder Liberal

I always thought that the Obama campaign should play offense and suggested a "Confused" campaign. Showing McCain not being able to distinguish between Al Qaeda and Iranians (until Joe Lieberman whispered in his ear), or forgetting that Iran was between Iraq and a hard place. Such a campaign would have implicitly brought attention to Sarah Palin as his pick, because if McCain were shown to be slipping into senility, the viewers would understand that Gov. Unprepared could become the Leader of the Free World.

Obama could slam McCain's choice without even mentioning her name, and call attention to McCain's judgment. A twofer.

But the Obama campaign held firm. BO does want to take the high road and only punch back when necessary. So, as of now the "fundamentals are strong" comment appears to be decisive. When historians look back on this campaign, this will be the turning point, since the next day there was a credit crunch and an emergency.

Those who study the markets (and risk their money, the money of their customers and, in many cases, the money of their institutions or countries) knew that the fundamentals were quite weak and one of the most significant was in extremis.

Since most conservatives don't really understand economics, or simpy blow it off as Keynesian (though this was straight out of Milton Friedman's playbook), they were a little later coming to the realization. We were facing a monetary Chernobyl just as McCain was repeating his stump speech optimism (which would justiofy more tax cuts for his class).

So, it was an Abraham Lincoln moment when McCain could no longer fool all of the people (who supported him or thought they might). And Obama could take the high road, vote "present," and reap the benefits of McCain's confusion and indecisveness (caused, ironically, by his impetuous decisiveness, which turned out to be wrong, both as to Palin and the economy).

Mule Rider said...

I agree with Jen. I don't think the single "fundamental" comment is a game changer....I think that, with the houses, the smelly Rep brand on the economy, the Gramm comment on "whining", etc. are all part of a narrative that are working to bring him down.

You take all those other things out, i.e. the Reps are at least slightly more popular, he doesn't gaffe on his houses, Gramm doesn't make his gaffe, and the "fundamentals" comment floats away in the wind unnoticed.

Mule Rider said...

It's why the "cling to guns and religion" hasn't hurt Obama very much....he and his staff have been basically gaffe-free in this area except for that one slip-up.

If he or his surrogates had made plenty of other insensitive statements about rural Americans, you can bet there would be a narrative to work around.

One gaffe does not make a campaign...unless you own up to being the Antichrist or something...I'm guessing that would turn a few heads.

depraved said...

Setting up Palin so she isn't slammed in the Vice Presidential debates...

McCain advisers said they had been concerned that a loose format could leave Ms. Palin, a relatively inexperienced debater, at a disadvantage and largely on the defensive.

Ed M. said...

I'm a hybrid independent/conservative/libertarian who just doesn't find much in common with Mr. Obama.

Hopefully, if you found yourself here, you aren't an idiot and know how to play poker. Go bullshit someone else.

You have been conditioned to hate democrats over the years to the point where you are carrying water for John McCain like Gunga Din.

You probably hate the guy, but you troll a polling site in earnest because....you are Gunga Din. You have to work for an old, scummy, politician you probably despise because....

You hate the mule.

I'm glad I'm not you.

Michael said...

Jen, I'll take your point on the Virginia campaign, but I'm a New Yorker and remember the Vacco reelection campaign vividly, and there's no doubt that that single gaffe cost him the election. None whatsoever.

nicesocks said...

sweet ganesha, i love seeing pictures of colorado.
i live here, i've travelled around most of it. but i'm always impressed with it's beauty. though i admit, the new mexico shots were equally gorgeous, thanks for keeping that state beautiful as well, southern neighbors.

and yes, non coloradoans, it's that colorful out here. come and visit! we like your tourist money.

Mule Rider said...

Ed M.,

Not sure what to make of your response. I do play poker, though...although I actually live close enough to casinos to go play...not tonight, though.

I hardly have been "conditioned to hate democrats" over the years. I was raised in a socially conservative democratic family. My dad still hails as one.

I didn't vote in 2000, but I was rooting for Gore. I despise the liberal wingnuts who have hijacked the democratic party, much like I despise the right-wing neocons who have hijacked the republican party. That's why I don't affiliate myself with anybody.

But I'm not aligned with McCain and can say with 99.9% certainty I won't be voting for him on election day.

I may bark a lot on here, but I'm nobody's fool.

Michael said...

So Mule Rider, what you're basically saying, as I understand it, is that Obama HAS been specific, but mostly in written statements, such as on his website, and that his speeches are stronger on oratory. Big surprise, eh?! lol (And he HAS been specific in speeches, too, such as in his acceptance speech.) The real nub of your problem with Obama isn't that he's a good orator; it's that you don't think his proposals will work or are good for the country! So then, just say that!

Michael said...

Mule Rider, why didn't you vote in 2000? Also, just curious, have you voted for any black candidates before? (For the record, I have, several times.)

STepper said...

I disagree with both Jen and Mule Rider. A "gaffe" is often a truthful statement (or believed to be so to the speaker) which reveals something about him that he does not want his listeners to know (or that his handlers don't want the electorate to find out).

In George Allen's case it was that he was a racist who despised minorities (and had been since his high school days in Southern California). In President Ford's case it was that he was Chevy Chase clumsy when it came to understanding the world outside Michigan.

In McCain's case it is his misunderstanding of the economy (stupid!) and promoting the Republican brand of trickle down economics. It was really quite revealing because as far as McCain is concerned, for him and his coven of plutocrats and lobbyists, the fundamentals of the economy as it pertains to them were strong. (Especially for someone who has so many houses he's lost count.)

I think it was a gaffe of nuclear proportions. And I think we'll know pretty soon if my judgment is correct. If McCain begins a golden parachute ride down in the polls, then we will have some confidence in my evaluation. If not, we may have to wait for the post-election autopsy.

While McCain has been lucky in the past with parachutes that worked, the golden parachute will not being him to an easy or safe landing. This was the gaffe that killed his campaign. And I am sure his handlers know it and are in panic mode.

Michael said...

STepper, I don't think that if McCain loses, it will be mainly because of a single remark. His record on both the economy and foreign policy contains incredibly unpopular substance to it. Don't overlook the people who will vote against him because of his position on the war, as well as the economy. And there are also environmentalist voters who will have reasons to vote against him. And abortion rights advocates. Etc., etc.

pygmy_owl said...

That article on Ohio is pretty strange. I'm not questioning the results, but in the middle of the article, there's this citation:

"Nationally, Obama leads McCain 47 percent to 45 percent according to a Zogby International poll out Wednesday, Sept. 24, a seven-point reversal from an August Zogby poll that had McCain in the lead."

Sept. 24? Zogby? WTF. Is this a hack?

Ed M. said...

But I'm not aligned with McCain and can say with 99.9% certainty I won't be voting for him on election day.

Ok, who speaks for you?

I'm imagining the person you describe and I guess it's McCain circa 2000.

He's gone. I need to face facts myself and what you say to win an election you own. I'm staring that down with Obama. The man has Robert Rubin waiting in the wings, and that terrifies me. If what you are putting out as your beliefs is true, you need to start understanding that McCain is going to own his idiots.

Mule Rider said...

Michael,

Now you're on to something! Yep, I don't really mind that he's a great orator...my bigger beef on that front is with the people who "swoon" over him because he's one...but, yeah, I primarily just don't fall in line in agreeing that his "plans" are going to work well for the country. Plain and simple.

As to why I didn't vote in 2000, it was my first eligible (presidential) election, and I wasn't ready to make such a "commitment" if you can call it that. It's a big responsibility, and I just felt better on the sidelines.

I've never voted for a black candidate, but then again, I've only voted once in my life, and that was a local election for county judge, tax collector, etc.

Never voted in a state or national election. I'm about as anti-politics as they come.



STepper,

You still have to build in the "houses" and bad "Republican brand" into the economy. The one-time "fundamentals" comment didn't make him out of touch. It's the whole narrative.

Mule Rider said...

Ed M.,

No politician is close enough to be in the ballpark with me to claim them. No one.

pygmy_owl said...

And FWIW, I think Stepper is spot on here. It's not just his "fundamentals" gaffe. It's his bungling of the entire week. The article on the privatization of health care. His stupid comment about firing the head of the SEC. His insistance that we shouldn't bail out AIG, and then that we should. His insistance that we shouldn't pull Hank and Helicopter Ben's proposed bail-out, and then his agreement that we should and must.

He's a ridiculous, unqualified fartface, and he's just shown himself to be such.

Mule Rider said...

Been fun, but I'm out for tonight. Later...

Jeff said...

I tried to post a comment, but it didn't take. I thought this was so interesting. I had no idea that part of Colorado was blue. I've never been down there.

I'm assuming you arer going to make it up to the Denver area. The Denver Post had an interesting article about Colorado's swing counties - http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_10074142

I'm in Arapahoe County and volunteering doing data entry on one of the campaigns. You should stop by. I'll even buy you all a round of beer. :-)

The Real Mike Is Back said...

well, I spent a great Saturday babysitting my 6 and 4 year old niece and nephew. And the Phillies won a barnburner and three quarters tonight.

We all saw the Ron Fournier article. The media sure wants another tie contest, eh? I drew that conclusion because Ron's math is a little dodgy. 60 percent of Dems who will never vote for a black man will vote for McCain. 40 percent will either stay home or not vote in that contest, but in others down ballot.

I missed a spate of polls. The race is back to the July model pre-Berlin speech. What's the path to victory for McCain now? Is it attack ads? Hoping for an Obama flop? Is it counting on enough older, whiter voters to vote against that man? Or white women?

STepper said...

Perhaps I have been careless in my expression.

When McCain said the fundamentals of the economy were strong he lost any chance he might have had to win. It tumbled his credibility. Sure, other factors contributed, and gave context, and reinforced the gaffe, but that statement was the end of his campaign.

Might he have lost on other grounds? Sure. Can he win now? No. Unless, as I observed on another post, Obama admits to something he is not ("I am a Muslim") or it is learned that Michelle Obama is actually an extra-terrestrial from the Orion star system.

Juris said...

Ahhhh Durango. Haven't been there in years. Rio de las Animas Perdidas (River of Lost Souls).

Thanks again, Sean, for the fine article and pics.

Juris said...

Dave Barnes wrote:
This is THE BEST website for 2008 numbers. Nate is awesome. He has hired some really great people to collect data and analyze it. I hope Nate is getting rich from this election."

I'm pretty sure Nate has done 100% of the data collection and statistical analysis. Sean, of course, has added a great dimension with his own analyses and commentary.

Michael said...

Mule Rider, I'm surprised that you consider voting a big commitment. You show up at the polling place and wait maybe 20 minutes (unless you were in a largely Democratic precinct in Ohio in 2004 or St. Louis in 2000, for example). I remember the application being easy, too (including the application for an absentee ballot - I've used those on occasion). But then again, I'm in New York, and I realize that some states really make people jump through a lot of hoops, because they want to depress turnout.

More importantly, I consider voting a civic duty. It's a crying shame that such a high percentage of Americans don't vote. Part of that is due to outrageous vote-suppression and election stealing, but part of it is pure laziness and apathy. We must jealously guard our rights, lest the remaining ones are taken from us and this country turns into a de jure dictatorship.

EmonOkari said...

I agree with the Huckabee Plan. All of the Base Positives, very few of the Palin Negatives, and a 'golly-gee' type of American Duo with McCain-Huckabee that could be 'down-to-earth' and drive home the Obama=Celebrity-Elitist point, without even bringing it up. Furthermore, the Experience Argument would have remained firmly on the table.

I wonder though: with the negative direction the McCain campaign was planning to take (along with the change to Rove Strategy), would Huckabee have even accepted? One would think him against such questionable tactics. Down the road we may even find out he was OFFERED the job, but turned it down.

Jon said...

Mule Rider,

I'm not too crazy about Obama's economic policy either, especially his tax increases for those making over $250000 and tax cuts for those making under. I also don't like his capital gains tax increase to 28%, although I do agree with his dividend increase to that amount.

Call me crazy, but I would like to see a flat income tax of 25% and eliminate all deductions and credits, except the current deductions and credits for children and the Earned income tax credit for poor taxpayers. I also advocate increasing the FICA payroll tax to all taxpayers, so that effectively creates a flat federal tax rate of 33%. Including state income taxes, most taxpayers would pay a under 40% total income (including payroll) tax. The effective rate will be lower for middle class and working class taxpayers due to the credits.

Under the current distribution of federal taxes, the average taxpayer pays about 21% of their income to the federal government. My plan will increase that share, and therefore increase federal revenues.

The Earned income credit and child credit helps poor taxpayers and families, while the flat tax will provide incentives for taxpayers to increase their income, since they will not be penalized by higher tax rates for doing so (might sound ridiculous to those not versed in economic thought, but its guaranteed to work at least for the marginal taxpayer).

Eliminate the Capital gains tax and the corporation tax, and tax dividends at 25%.

Yes, this effectively increases taxes for the working class, while reducing taxes for the middle but it is the rich and middle classes that form the corporations and LLC's that provide the private sector jobs. Less taxes means they can invest more money that creates jobs.

I think its better to have a job and pay higher taxes than to have no job at all.

Jon said...

About my last post...

Of course, tax policy is much more complicated than any simple plan I could offer, and raising taxes for workers in a consumer based economy will have negative effects on the economy. However, I'm counting on the economic incentives to increase income due to the flat tax to offset that.

In a sense, I'm hoping to encourage workers to get educated, whether it be classical or vocational, which would increase their income.

Also, even if a flat tax doesn't raise the effective tax rate (the tax rate minus deductions and credits), there are plenty of discretionary spending areas that the government can cut, like excess military spending and spending on wasteful wars.

In the 21st century, we should share the "policing of the world" burden with our allies

Jorn said...

Wonderful series. Enjoy it a lot.

xian said...

charisma is part of politics. democrats lose when they run uncharismatic (dukakis, gore) or anticharismatic (kerry) candidates.

they win when they run charismatics (clinton, maybe obama).

carter may be an exception, depending on how you define charisma.

republicans are annoyed ("celebrity") because they have no charismatic candidate this year. they really need one to paper over the contradictions in their coalition.

Josh said...

continue - you may very well be right about Ohio - it appears to be lagging behind the national numbers which makes it unlikely to go Obama unless he doesn't need it anyway (in a blowout) --- but the good news for Obama and his supporters is that he doesn't need Ohio. Right now he looks to have a very good shot via Kerry + Colorado + New Mexico + Iowa.

Billy said...

I hear a lot about Kerry + Col+ NM+ Iowa. That's fine and good but we forget, NH is no gimme for Obama. I would also say Michigan and Wisconsin look tenuous at best.

Overrated said...

This post on CO screams "confirmation bias!"

Michael said...

What is confirmation bias? Does it mean that once you've decided something is true, you tend to hold to that belief in the face of countervailing evidence?

Alex S. said...

Research 2000 tracker:

Obama 49
McCain 42

Obama loses a point which had to be expected. I think there was a little bit of short-term bounce in yesterday´s numbers. Let´s see how much it recedes.

DarcyPennell said...

Michael:
Considering that one of the reasons George HW Bush lost reelection was that he refused to use the word "recession" for such a long time and showed he was "out of touch" by expressing amazement at a supermarket scanner....

That supermarket scanner story was as distorted as the "Al Gore invented the internet" story. I didn't vote for HW but he got a bum rap on that one.
http://www.snopes.com/history/american/bushscan.asp


Mule Rider
You take all those other things out, i.e. the Reps are at least slightly more popular, he doesn't gaffe on his houses, Gramm doesn't make his gaffe, and the "fundamentals" comment floats away in the wind unnoticed.

Just like McCain's strange Spain remarks last week seem to be disappearing under the avalanche of economy coverage. If the anti-McCain narrative were "senile" rather than "out of touch", it might have gotten more attention.

(I don't think McCain's gaffe about Spain indicates senility. I think he just didn't understand the question and tried to wing it instead of asking her to repeat the question. But a mistake like that, where he seems to be saying Spain is in Latin America, makes him sound senile.)

Michael said...

Why did the loss of a point "have to be expected"? And without confirmation from other tracking polls, how do we know there's any real statistical significance to it? I'm also wondering what the numbers of third-party voters and undecideds are in that tracking poll. A quick look at the Daily Kos site doesn't seem to make that clear. I know the easy answer is 100%-49%-42%, but that doesn't differentiate between third-party voters and undecideds.

Michael said...

Darcy, thanks for at long last disabusing me of that urban legend about George HW Bush.

I think that preferring to make stupid remarks, instead of asking for questions to be repeated, is actually a legitimate reason for people to be concerned about McCain's decision-making procedures. Does that strengthen the fear that he is likely to shoot first, before knowing for sure what he's shooting at and why? I think we are much better served by Obama's more deliberative style.

Michael said...

So here are two new polls for Nate to use today:

Miami Herald/St. Petersburg Times Florida General Election

* John McCain 47%
* Barack Obama 45%
Survey of 800 likely voters was conducted September 14-17. The margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.

and

University of Cincinnati Ohio General Election

* John McCain 48%
* Barack Obama 42%
Survey of 869 likely voters was conducted September 12-16. The margin of error is +/- 3.3 percentage points.

Cugel said...
This post has been removed by the author.
Cugel said...

BACK ON TOPIC! (God every thread descends hopelessly into OFF-topic posts: this is supposed to be about Colorado GOTV).

The western slope will provide some Democratic votes, but Obama's real task is to limit the damage. He has to off-set the natural Republican lean of most rural parts of the state with GOTV. The I-70 corridor to Glenwood Springs has some Democrats, as does Durango area.

But the Durango/Cortez area is offset by lots of places like Park & Elbert counties that are Republican.

Democrats will pick up more votes in each Denver suburb than in much of western slope.

Obama's job is to maximize the black and hispanic Denver turnout to offset the Colorado Springs evangelical lunatic-right. El Paso county is another source of Democratic votes, but I haven't been down there to see how well it's been organized.

Here in Denver/Boulder, things are going at a frenetic pace. But, the TV advertising is still tilted heavily Republican.

The lobbyist groups are mounting a HUGE campaign against Udall in the Senate campaign here, but he's still leading and is very likely to win. I'm finally seeing some ads attackin Shaffer (R) candidate.

You might think that some lobbyists would be afraid to totally piss-off the guy who's likely going to win and make him an even fiercer opponent in the Senate, but you'd be wrong.

The ballot initiatives here are also longer and more confusing than ever -- and that's saying a LOT! There are competing labor rights initiatives for instance, including one "right-to-work" anti-labor amendment which is likely to fail.

But, it also seems like the pro-union ballot initiative that would make it easier to organize unions, because it would eliminate management's ability to rig elections after workers sign a petition to unionize, may be also headed for defeat.

It's difficult to know how all this will shake itself out.

NJ_Moderate said...

Cugel, like FL in 2000 and OH in 2004, CO will most closely mirror the national popular vote. If either candidate wins the popular vote by 1% or more, they will carry CO. It's natural state in 2004 was Bush +5% as neither Kerry nor Bush made much of an effort in this state.

I am sure that Obama's ground game will make up some of the deficit but the state still leans R in registration so that will offset the difference.

Cugel said...

The U. of Cincinatti poll was conducted 9/12-16, at the height of McCain's bounce, just before Obama's surge began. So, Ohio is much closer right now.

But, if you subtract about 3 or 4 points from a 6% lead, that probably indicates that the poll would show a McCain +3 or +4 lead right now.

All in all, McCain is probably really ahead in Ohio at the moment in that poll.

We'll have to wait until the next Quinnipiac poll to see if Obama is really at +5 in their polling. The last one they did was in July showing Obama +2.

Michael said...

NJ_Moderate, I just can't let that seemingly innocuous comment go by. The 2000 and 2004 elections were _STOLEN_ by the Republicans, and Florida and Ohio, respectively, were the epicenters of the thefts.

Devbo23 said...

The poll and election analysis here is always so good, who knew the site could become even better with great on-the-ground reporting. And Kerouac quotes to boot? A truly great site.

Michael said...

Further to my remark about election theft:

That's why it's so important for the Democratic Party in Colorado to counteract the removal of about 1/5 of registered Coloradans from the voter rolls, and that's why I want to know how and how effectively they're going about that - and also how the Republicans plan on challenging voters at the polling places and preventing their votes from counting.

DarcyPennell said...

Michael:
I think that preferring to make stupid remarks, instead of asking for questions to be repeated, is actually a legitimate reason for people to be concerned about McCain's decision-making procedures.

I totally agree, though it seems like it might be more persuasive with people like you and I who are already strongly against McCain. To me it's one more piece in a mountain of evidence that he lacks the judgment to be president. To an undecided voter? Maybe it's more like "eh, the guy made a mistake, leave him alone."

NJ_Moderate said...

Michael, you have to get rid of your BDS. Whatever the result of FL was in 2000, Bush won OH by as big a margin as Kerry won PA in 2004. OH was definitely not stolen contrary to your unsupported assertions.

I think OH will be MORE Republican this election than in 2004. Whereas OH mirrored the popular vote exactly in 2004, it will probably lean 1-2 points to McCain vs. the popular vote.

NJ_Moderate said...

If I were worried about vote fraud, I would be looking at our party. The fraud was pretty egregious in our favor in Philly and WI in 2004 so we can't be throwing stones.

Michael said...

NJ, you're claiming to be a Democrat and claiming that _Democratic_ fraud in 2004 was worse than the massive disenfranchisement in Ohio, among other places? If you are merely unaware of the scope of the vote-caging, electronic vote-manipulation, etc., why haven't you read Greg Palast? Do it now!

I really have no idea what BDS is, but you can't tell me that it was purely coincidental that there were 12-hour lines to vote in heavily Democratic precincts in Ohio, or that some 300,000 voters were purged from the voter rolls there.

zzyzx said...

For those who care about polling, Rass posted their targets for the week: 39/33.5/27.5

Dem up .3, Rep down .1 ind down .2

Still it's Dem down .7 since the new rules and Rep up 1.4. So it's a slight correction but only a slight one.

Blame said...

I thinks I have worked out why Dems are having so much trouble getting to 60...

Not enough Udalls.

bryen193 said...

"I think OH will be MORE Republican this election than in 2004. Whereas OH mirrored the popular vote exactly in 2004, it will probably lean 1-2 points to McCain vs. the popular vote."

Interesting. Any explanation as to why this would be - considering that Ohio significantly shifted blue at the gubernatorial, senatorial and congressional level in 2006, and also that Ken Blackwell is no longer around running the elections there. What factors might be involved in your predicted shift towards McCain relative to the popular vote?

zzyzx said...

Anyone else notice btw that you can tell how favorable Rassmussen's polls will be for Obama by the time they're posted? Good news for McCain comes up around 6 AM (Pacific time) whereas bad news is lucky to make the 6:30 schedule.

Michael said...

I've posted this link before (probably a couple of weeks ago), but it's an interview with Greg Palast, and it's on-topic, because it discusses Colorado:

Greg Palast interview: investigating election theft in the USA

Anyone who hasn't read this owes it to themselves to do so.

zzyzx said...

Sure enough, a 6:24 update and no change in the result. Still O+1.

Congratulations to President-Elect McCain!!! said...

LOL check this out Obama word cloud

http://www.snappedshot.com/archives/2866-I,-uh,-KNEW-IT.html

Guess what the biggest word is?UH!

Gerbie said...

zzyzx said...
Anyone else notice btw that you can tell how favorable Rassmussen's polls will be for Obama by the time they're posted? Good news for McCain comes up around 6 AM (Pacific time) whereas bad news is lucky to make the 6:30 schedule.


zzyzx said...
Sure enough, a 6:24 update and no change in the result. Still O+1.


I'd say that's good news for M posted at 6:30 so what's your point?

Sedi said...

"Guess what the biggest word is?UH!"

Given the massive portion of the electoral that votes solely on verbal pauses, I expect this to bury Obama's candidacy. I beg everybody, let's end the "ers, ahs, uhs, and ums," infiltrating our candidates' speech. Forget the $700 billion bailout, this is obviously the most important issue facing our country right now!

Charles M. Kozierok said...

"The U. of Cincinatti poll was conducted 9/12-16, at the height of McCain's bounce, just before Obama's surge began. So, Ohio is much closer right now."

The biggest problem with that poll is not the date, it's the party ID split. Unless one actually thinks that 47% of Ohioans are Republicans, I suppose.

Chun said...

Does it also say how many times McCain uses Warshington? God it's going to feel like nails on chalkboard to hear that all the time if he becomes president.

Sean said...

Yea, thats not even close to being right seeing as How Democrats have add 700,000 more voters to the rolls post 2004.

dominoid73 said...

Slow comment night last night.

Rasmussen
Obama - 48
McCain -47

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Daily Kos/Research 2000
Obama - 49
McCain - 42

http://www.dailykos.com/dailypoll/2008/09/21

Two close Florida Polls:
Research 2000
McCain - 46
Obama - 45
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/southflorida/sfl-flaprezpoll0921sbsep21,0,7609474.story

Miami Herald
McCain - 47
Obama - 45
http://www.miamiherald.com/979/story/695102.html

Others:
Ohio News Paper Roll
McCain - 48
Obama - 42
http://blog.cleveland.com/openers/2008/09/ONOpoll.pdf

Iowa - Research 2000
Obama - 53
McCain - 39
http://www.qctimes.com/articles/2008/09/21/news/local/doc48d5d7d0b32a5478622581.txt?sPos=2

Good Morning

takestock said...

Regarding the Ohio/UC poll, be aware that it was taken while a big chunk of the state was without power. Myself included. I have no idea how that alters the makeup of people answering the phone, but I wouldn't put much faith in the results.

zzyzx said...

No that's neutral news. Good news for McCain would be, say, McCain up 2. When McCain had his big surge days, Ras posted them early.

Ian Burns said...

What I find interesting about CO is that unlike the rest of the Bush states with large evangelical populations, there was absolutely no Palin bounce. That says to me that evangelicals in the state were already solidly behind McCain and that the state is very likely to flip for Obama. Does anyone know of the data on Republican support for McCain in CO pre and post Palin?

Gerbie said...

This week we saw;

Palins approval diving,
McCains approval slowly eroding
GWB's 180 on regulation that forced a McCain flip flop
Olbermann's going bankrupt after promissing to give $100 to charity after every Palin Lie
A McCain U-turn on Health Care regulation.
McCain unsure if Spain's an allie or a foe
The economy going from fundamentaly strong to grinding
And lots of other bad news for McCain/Palin

So keeping support at the same level in polls must be very good news to them. I cannot believe McCain himselve feels it's neutral...

dominoid73 said...

On that Ohio poll.

"John" at pollster is claiming the poll has ID's of:
47.3R
44.8D
7.9I

I can't see where he is getting those numbers though. That would be way off for this state.

dominoid73 said...

I found "John's" source - http://dunes.cincinnati.com/data/govt/election2008/poll1.aspx

With that sample, this poll is a bit of crap!

Congratulations to President-Elect McCain!!! said...

Donna Brazille said the Bradley Effect is worth at least 2-3 points on CNN, so Obama has to be ahead at least 5-6 to be sure. You libs should be nervous ;)

Michael said...

Front page of the Youngstown Vindicator says:

POLL: MCCAIN LEADS IN OHIO

According to the poll, the only region of the state that gives Obama the edge is in the Northeast sector of the state. He leads in NE Ohio 49-40.

He stands absolutely no chance of winning Ohio is he is up 9 in NE Ohio. Kerry and Gore were up 15-18 in this part of the state in 2000 and 2004.

And a side note: I voted for all the Democrats for statewide office in 2006, like many Republicans. The idiots like Taft-Blackwell-Petro made our party look like shit with their corruption. It was time for those idiots to get out of office. I do not like Strickland, but I do not disapprove of his job. The only idiot of the Dems that I voted for was Marc Dann, from Youngstown.

Charles M. Kozierok said...

"He stands absolutely no chance of winning Ohio is he is up 9 in NE Ohio. Kerry and Gore were up 15-18 in this part of the state in 2000 and 2004."

Again, the poll is worthless unless you actually believe in a 45/47/8 D/R/I split in Ohio.

zzyzx said...

So if John McCain wants to call continuing to be down in the only poll that showed him in the lead good news, if being 4 points over a week is good news because he hasn't lost more ground, well then I'd be happy for McCain to have equally good news for the rest of the election cycle.

kevzhong said...

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/southflorida/sfl-florida-presidential-poll-results,0,7555491.htmlstory

New poll in Florida. Dead Heat. Another out too, also dead heat. Funny thing on this one is that they polled more hispanics, than blacks in Florida. Is that accurate?

joel said...

Rasmussen changes party ID on monday a 1/2% in democrats favor. Not sure about his polling this year, he shows much better favorable for McCain than other pollsters.
For instance today he has McCain with
a 58% favorable Obama 55% while the Daily kos poll has McCain with 45% approval.
All other polls show Palin being a negative now he still is spinning that she is a positive. seems that working with fox is tainting his polls with at least a 2% McCain bias.

bryen193 said...

""John" at pollster is claiming the poll has ID's of:
47.3R
44.8D
7.9I""

The only stat that really matters is Obama's % of dems, which in this poll is 81. He needs to be at 85 or above on election day.

dominoid73 said...

Plus this poll is OLD news - taken 9/12-9/16.

Anyone know why they wait so long to release these? It's like releasing a poll they are doing this weekend AFTER next Friday's debate. A week or more in this election cycle is like a month in previous cycles. Although I'm sure we say that every election.

Michael said...

Well Charles, that split is false, I would agree with you.

But other polls like PPP and Rasmussen give the Dems a 5-6 point party id edge, and the results are still McCain +3 to +5.

OHIO IS RED.

Congratulations to President-Elect McCain!!! said...

Remember libs Obama has to be up at least 5 or 6 to cancel out the Bradley Eeffect!

Deadpixel said...

Keep bragging about one outlier Ohio poll silly trolls. Face the facts this so called poll was taken BEFORE Obama began running away with the election.

I'm willing to bet the next Ohio poll will show a tie or an Obama lead.

Obama will win Ohio.

FloridaGOP said...

I agree that this Rasmussen Poll with Obama staying at +1 is positive for McCain. This has been a terrible week for McCain which is indicated By Gallup at O+6 and CBS/R2000 at O+5. If Rasmussen, Battleground and Hotline hold at O+1, I would take that as good news for McCain.

My expectation for the week would have been the 3 O+1 polls moving closer to the O+5 polls. It may still happen.

Alex S. said...

The Ohio state Republican Party may be in shambles but their propaganda network is still intact.

FloridaGOP said...

Are there TWO Ohio polls -- one from U of Cincinnati, the other a Newspapers Poll? I understand the U of Cincinnati poll is invalid due to PartyID.. Is the Ohio Newspapers Poll also invalid?

Michael said...

DeadPixel, if you honestly think Obama has run away with this election and will win Ohio, are you so damn sadly mistaken.

You liberals should've learned that being over-confident get's you nowhere!

The Republicans are genius at winning elections, and that will be the same here too.

Obama needs to be up 5-7 points in the national poll come November 4th for any of you to be confident.

Ohio-Florida-Virginia-Nevada are red.
New Mexico-Iowa-Minnesota are blue.

Toss Up: NH-CO-MI-PA-WI

Ian Burns said...

OHIO IS RED.

Let's stipulate for a second that OH is red this year. Let's also stipulate that Democrats are making gains in the west, where the demographics are younger and more favorable to them.

We're very close to electing a Black Academic Elite with little national experience to the Presidency of the United States. Win or lose, I think the Republican party is about to see its last competitive election in a long time.

dominoid73 said...

There is some conflicting information out there:

Dems at a one million registered voter advantage? Check out the graphic.
http://columbusdispatch.com/live/content/local_news/stories/2008/08/22/DEMVOTERS.ART_ART_08-22-08_A1_U8B3OT6.html


Yet exit poll sin 2004 showed ID at:
Republican - 40
Democrat - 35
Independent - 25

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004//pages/results/states/OH/P/00/epolls.0.html

According to the first article, democrats outnumbered republican in 2004 as well. I guess the GOTV effort (coupled with corruption) really was way better for the GOP in 2004. If the GOTV for Obama is half what we expect it to be, we should take that one million voter advantage and win Ohio comfortably.

kevzhong said...

Here is the other FL poll.....

http://www.miamiherald.com/979/story/695102.html

Congratulations to President-Elect McCain!!! said...

Obama will lose three points on the Bradley Effect according to Democrat Donna Brazille.

PA voter said...

GOP presidential dominance myth. Counting that Gore did win the popular vote in 2000, then:
since 1932 - dems have won 11 of 19
since 1960 - dems have won 6 of 12
since 1976 - dems have won 4 of 8
since 1992 - dems have won 3 of 4

facts

Michael said...

Ohio went to the GOP by the same margin Kerry won Pennsylvania.

You don't hear us saying Kerry stole PA!

And PAvoter, thank you great old FDR for hindering those stats!

bryen193 said...

"OHIO IS RED":

People keep saying this, but I'm still waiting for some indication as to what's happened in Ohio since 2006 that would have republicans so confident in re-taking the state. Democrats stormed to the statehouse by 22 points, replace a sitting Republican senator by 12 points and flipped one house seat as well. What are the conditions and factors in Ohio that would indicate that Obama shouldn't win there?

Bradley Effect said...

Ohio is RED.

Tyrone said...

When registering people to vote, people should keep the partisan bullshit out of it.

Every time there is a group of people at my campus getting people registered to vote, they tell them to register as democrats. Shouldn't they allow people to think for themselves instead of being told what to do?

This is the main reason why democrats are getting ahead in registered democrat numbers, because whenever they register they are being told to register as democrats rather than willingly doing so.

Bradley Effect said...

Obama has to be up at least 6 to really be in the lead.

zzyzx said...

"agree that this Rasmussen Poll with Obama staying at +1 is positive for McCain. This has been a terrible week for McCain which is indicated By Gallup at O+6 and CBS/R2000 at O+5. If Rasmussen, Battleground and Hotline hold at O+1, I would take that as good news for McCain.

My expectation for the week would have been the 3 O+1 polls moving closer to the O+5 polls. It may still happen."

Rasmussen wasn't an O+1 poll though. Here's the last week of Rasmussen:

M+3
M+2
M+1
M+1
Tie
Tie
O+1
O+1

It's a slow but steady movement. The question is now if by mid-week we'll be seeing O+3-4, or if we'll stay at O+1-2. I don't see any reason to expect us to move to M+anything, so in that sense, it's hard to see this as good news for McCain.

Vanessa said...

McCain had by 1 or 2 in Florida and he's actually started spending money advertising there...

Michael said...

As a sidenote:
They posted a full page of crosstabs for this poll:

McCain: 85-GOP, 33-IND, 12-DEM
Obama: 81-DEM, 38-IND, 8-GOP

WHITES: MCCAIN 55-34
BLACKS: OBAMA 98-0

NE: OBAMA 49-40
NW: MCCAIN 55-34
CEN: MCCAIN 55-32
SW: MCCAIN 53-41
SE: MCCAIN 50-46

Those crosstabs seem awful believable!

Bradley Effect said...

If Obama is tied on Ohio or PA, he is probably really down by three.

Deadpixel said...
This post has been removed by the author.
Vanessa said...

bradley,
I hope the McCain campaign thinks like you do.

Bradley Effect said...

Obama better watch out for me. ;)

Michael said...

BRYAN-Republicans like me were pissed with our party's corruption. We got those idiots like Taft-Blackwell-Petro out of office and now we're happy.

Strickland isn't all that liberal, his congressional district is very conservative, so he is what I refer to as a moderate Dem, which I don't mind.

Nationwide, no way - no how - No Obama - No Biden ---HRC!

Bradley Effect said...

Vanessa-

What do you say to people like liberal Democrat Donna Brazille who say Obama loses three points because of race?

Alex S. said...

At least, Rasmussen is consistent within his own system. Add a little bit of house effect/cell phone effect and you get the picture that Obama is about +4/+5 at the moment.

@ michael aka MVred aka congratulations to president-elect mccain aka continue to spread the word!!! aka greg aka bradley effect: What will you do when Obama wins Ohio?

Bradley Effect said...

"What will you do when Obama wins Ohio?"

He won't. ;)

Deadpixel said...

Let me be a bit more clear so these Republican trolls will understand.

The election is over.

John McCain lost.

Obama will win Ohio.

Obama will win North Carolina.

Obama will win Virginia.

O
B
A
M
A

L
A
N
D
S
L
I
D
E

The fundamentals of John McCain's campaign are strong.

September 21, 2008 10:15 AM

Michael said...

No. I am Michael..
Continue to spread the word is my blogger friend Dave, from MVRed.com

No clue who Pres-Elect is!

DeadPixel, I hope you show up election night with that confidence, you'll be shocked!

Ian Burns said...

The Bradley Effect is to the Republicans as Cell-phone only households are to the Democrats.

As Giuliani snarled at the RNC, "Hope is not a plan".

Michael said...

RASMUSSEN: Also coming Monday morning will be new polling on the Presidential race in Minnesota and North Carolina Later on Monday, the latest results for the Senate races in Minnesota, and North Carolina will be released. Finally, at 6:00 p.m. Eastern on Monday, Presidential poll results will be released for Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia.

Charles M. Kozierok said...

People who keep saying 'THIS IS RED' or 'THIS IS BLUE' -- what is the point of this childish cheerleading?

States change -- what matters is the here and now, that's what we're trying to figure out.

Iowa was red -- now it's blue. Colorado was red, now it is much more blue. Michigan was blue -- now it's more purplish.

States change, and denial is pointless.

Bradley Effect said...

DONNA BRAZILLE brought up the Bradley Effect and said it's worth three points. She's not a Republican. She's a black Democrat. ;)

Charles M. Kozierok said...

deadpixel, I hope that's satire.

Deadpixel said...

Don't worry Mickey, I will. See, unlike you, and the other idiot trolls, I don't take the voters of this country for granted. They are not as stupid as you hope they are.

Obama has already won.

"The fundamentals of my campaign are strong." - John McCain

capt said...

You guy are the best, great with numbers and the road trip stuff has been some good writing - you take us there with you.

The "reporting" on the ground games is real and honest.

Keep up the good work!

As always

Thanks

adam said...

I find it absolutely disgusting that some (hopefully not most) repubs are PROUD of the fact that they are relying on the bradley effect to win.

btw, did you know that donna brazille thinks the bradley effect is worth three points. bet no one else heard that.

FloridaGOP said...

@Vanessa,
"Bradley Effect" has the same blogger number as CTPEM. Please treat their comments the same. As I have said numerous times, I consider CTPEM (and Bradley Effect) to be a Democratic Troll sent here to rev up the Obama supporters -- or at least I wish that to be true..

Jersey said...

Ah-ha! I see the comments are troll-ridden and unreadable this morning. Excellent.

Deadpixel said...

I also forgot to add:

John McCain will lose Florida.

"The fundamentals of my campaign are strong" - John McCain

DH said...

Question guys: does anybody have an idea about the typical size and skew of the absentee vote?

Two reasons. 1. I'm registring voters (mostly students) for the Obama campaign and the field organizer was basically asking to register anybody in NY. I figure it would make more sense (if more complicated) to register everybody in their home states.
2. I assume the absentee vote doesn't get polled.