9.25.2008

On the Road: Denver, Colorado

“My moments in Denver were coming to an end, I could feel it when I walked her home, on the way back I stretched out on the grass of an old church with a bunch of hobos, and their talk made me want to get back on that road.”

– Jack Kerouac, “On the Road”

Colorado - BrettMarty.com

During the primaries, Kathy Archuleta supported Hillary Clinton. The former Chief of Staff to Transportation Secretary Federico Peña, Archuleta is now a Latina Advisory team member for Barack Obama. Along with three other women, she has organized an impressive women-to-women outreach program aimed at adding 10,000 undecided and/or least-likely women voters to vote for Obama.

In just two and a half weeks, Archuleta’s effort has coordinated a 1,000-strong-and-growing group. The goal for each member is to get at least eight women to vote for Obama who probably would not have voted otherwise. Among the group’s ranks, Archuleta counted 100 women in Colorado Springs, 100 in Vail, 100 in Evergreen, 50 in Pueblo, and 250-400 in the Denver area who would be counted on for this targeted outreach.

“First, you’re a Democrat,” said Archuleta. We caught up with her at the Adams County Thornton office just north of Denver, she was busy explaining to twenty women the program’s goals and planning for a large local event tonight.

The key to the story is that the campaign gives these groups the tools to communicate with voters but the creative ground for generating voter-to-voter outreach is left to volunteers. Stay consistent with the campaign’s overall goals of voter contact and neighbor-to-neighbor outreach, and you get great freedom to build a grassroots action plan. That type of ownership not only generates greater commitment to the plan, but it has greater potential to stay in existence after the election.

We stopped in the nearby McCain office in Thornton, and an organizer and several volunteers made dials. While they were diligently going about the tasks of voter contact, the scale is dramatically different. Moments after we saw three dialers in the McCain office, we counted 40 volunteers in the Obama office down the street.

For those who wonder about our access to field offices, we had our first strange and uncomfortable situation of the trip that underscores how friendly and helpful everyone on both sides has generally been. Brad, a full-time volunteer at Obama’s Arvada office who identified himself as an staff organizer (who cannot be quoted or give us anything for the record), physically barred us from going into the office. “No, you’re not,” an openly hostile Brad said, when we suggested we’d just like to look around and check out the action. Apparently he was terrified of being quoted in the press, something we never do for staff, but are allowed to do with volunteers.

But this strange incident just illustrates what an anomaly it is to be given the cold shoulder and how grateful we are for being allowed to tell this story in real time by interviewing volunteers and take pictures in these offices. Many offices are bustling with activity, and even when an office is relatively empty and quiet, or when, for example, a McCain office isn’t sure who we are, they quickly realize we’re there to tell their story, even as we cannot talk to staff. Nobody who gets into field organizing does it for the money. And certainly not for the healthy lifestyle. Whether staff is working for Democratic candidates or Republican ones, they’re pushing themselves to physical limits because they believe in what they’re doing. Direct action demands respect.



Many people have been asking about issues around the purging of voters from the rolls in various states, Colorado being a prime example. We hope to bring you more in-depth discussion of voter protection issues as we travel, and we’ve had several off-the-record conversations with campaign staff about those potential problems. We can report that Obama’s Voter Protection program, which has been actively soliciting local attorneys with civil rights experience, is fully on the case, much earlier than previous campaigns. In many instances, there are still negotiations going on with election officials where agreements in writing are being hammered out. Those party and campaign-negotiated agreements are much preferred to the injunction route to making sure voters have enough access, enough ballots, enough voting machines so that lines are as short as possible.

For the most part, we’re covering the ground game that organizers can control, and the voter protection issues are mostly handled by state and national directors. Our eye is on it, but more in depth coverage will come closer to the election.

Our journeys along the Front Range taught us that John McCain’s ground game is plugging along and going about its normal, highly targeted plan of action. Nearly all its 11 open field offices are on the Front Range, and Sarah Palin has clearly energized the volunteer base.

Steph Lindsey, a volunteer in Obama’s Denver HQ, respects what she’s seen from Republicans and their ground efforts. “Their machine works really well.” Then she looked around a full seventh-floor army of volunteers and smiled radiantly.

“It’s just that now there’s a new machine.”

My Brother's Bar - BrettMarty.com

Godspeed, Colorado.

406 comments

DarcyPennell said...

This series is my favorite thing on the site, Sean and Brett. If you have time when you get to the east coast I hope you'll stop by the Durham NC Obama office. Your map might even show NC as a toss-up by then.

Jonathan said...

Great post, Sean.

Pete Kent, I saw your rediculous post on Politico saying the media didn't cover Reverend Wright.

Hello? Did you sleep through the month of April? They talked about nothing but Reverend Wright for a f**king MONTH!

Above my Paygrade said...

Are you guys tracking the online phone bank that McCain uses. There are thousands of volunteers that receive the phone list of their area to call from home and do not even show up to the volunteer posts. I know I spend 20-30 minutes a night making local calls, and many of my buds do the same. We email in get a phone list over make the calls, email back results. Pretty effective and untraced in your ground game from what I can tell.

Oh yeah, by the way, Biden had a speech on his strong point, foreign policy. In it he points out Obama's weakness, by admitting he was called to meetings on foreign policy recently that Obama was not, he also lies his ass off in stating Bush sent high ranking diplomats to Tehran to meet with Ahmidinejad, (apparently intending to say, low ranking diplomats to Switzerland to meet with low ranking diplomats in Ahmidinejad's government.)He also falsely claimed the Prime Minister of Georgia personally called him for advice when Russia invaded, but no call to Obama of course. Gotta love him.

L Lawson said...

Durn right there's a new machine!

Kennyb said...

And from yesterday's Denver Post:

GOP's mail-vote edge shrinks:

http://www.denverpost.com/politics/ci_10541228

The Fly said...

Ah yes, a picture of a bar! You've been in Colorado for a week and you haven't mentioned once how incredible the micro-brew culture is there

such sweet thunder said...

mmmmmmmmmmmm . . . beer.

quantman said...

Per Congressmen and Senators, the earliest a bailout bill could come to the floor is Sat.

Then they have Congressmen and Senators making speeches for at least the entire weekend.

THEN, the public will be MAD as hell that this bill is about to have a chance of passing!

The public will scream, bllody murder.

Many Congressmen will get cold feet. Many will ask the others to vote for the bill, so that THEY themselves can vote against it.

REMEMBER only the Congressmen who vote against the BILL will be able to face their constituents back home.

The ones that vote FOR the bill, will have a VERY tough time getting reelected, EVEN if the bill passes AND the economy recovers!

I cannot see a SINGLE congreeman who could gain by voting FOR this bill's passage, with 90% or more of their constituents against it.

POLITICAL SUICIDE my man, POLITICAL SUICIDE!

Becky Sharp said...
This post has been removed by the author.
Becky Sharp said...

What's with this new F&M poll giving McCain the edge on the economy? I bet they felt really silly when the computer spat those results out

Kennyb said...

Yes, above my paygrade, I'm sure that is impressive. FYI, when I call for phone volunteers to come into an Obama New Hampshire office, I often am told that they are already making calls at home using the local organizing list on the Obama volunteer web site.

The Republican GOTV machine is impressive. Now ours is too.

MrInsight22 said...

SUSA has Obama up 6 in PA and up 19 in NY as of yesterday.

New demo in SUSA polls asks voters if they consider themselves to be intellectual? 75% say yes in NY and 71% in PA. Wonder what WV would ssay?

Vote said...

Sept 25 Polling Update

Obama 282, McCain 254

A 700 Billion Dollar Question

Does McCain Know What He Did?

Vern said...

Nate - Time for a sanity check on the polls. They are going absolutely wacky. I mean, MI is tied and +10 BHO on the same day?

Yes there is a clear move to BHO, but the spikes are off the charts these days - particularly given the stability and slow movement type swings we've seen since June.

Is there sudden volatility, or just a lot of inexperienced pollsters getting into the mix?

Darío said...

Vern, the polls takes different people.

Mason said...

New demo in SUSA polls asks voters if they consider themselves to be intellectual? 75% say yes in NY and 71% in PA. Wonder what WV would ssay?

I'd bet 90% of them consider themselves to be above-average drivers as well.

Real Joe said...

bryan said...
SUSA-PA: Obama 50, McCain 44.


McCain Surge continues..

McCain Landslide !!!

AnotherMike said...

Vern, I think this seeming volatility is simply a function of so many more polls coming out. If there is one thing I've learned this electoral season, it's that polls have much, much greater margins of error than advertised.

Michael said...

Sean:

Thanks for addressing voter suppression/protection. I'll await the further discussion of the issue closer to the election. Meanwhile, I'll continue to enjoy this series. Have a safe trip to Omaha!

Michael said...

I think Real Joe pretense of boosting McCain is really a broad satire.

Vanessa said...

How is McCain's decision playing in your local news?

Strangeite said...

Michael: I don't think anyone intelligent enough to operate a computer could be so ignorant.

I think you are right and he antics are merely a form of satire on the online equivilant of "performance art".

Above my Paygrade said...

If you trace my opinion on GOTV, I think the Repubs have it right, and that tho Obamaniacs are going overkill, but am open to being wrong, the election will show. I know people here in Michigan are getting fed up with being called 10 times by Obama supporters.

Strangeite said...

Damn iPhone, makes it hard to see typos.

I blame McCain.

Darío said...

Above, who win in MI fot you?

quantman said...

Always beware of OCT in the markets!

This is THE month when stuff happens!!

Things seem to setting up again!!

McCain should NOT have politicized this negotiation!

Dave Barnes said...

As someone who lives in Denver, I have appreciated both the excellent writing and the focus on my (now) home state of Colorado.
Keep up the good work.

Eric said...

I thin it's safe to say the work the Dems on the ground are doing in Denver and all over Colorado, like what Nate has referenced above might be the most important in this whole campaign. Similar to Ohio 2004 for the Republicans, OBama's ground game in Colorado may tilt the whole election to Obama as I believe it's far and away the most likely tipping point.

Arnold S. said...

Vern
Nice to have you back. I had thought that the anti-religion bigots had chased you away. Good to see you return. We need more people from your end of the spectrum, even if we think you're wrong. How's your family?

MATT J. H. said...

McCain is trying to find a political game changer with this bailout vote. For a man who puts country first, theres a lot of politics going on here. Pelosi and the democrats smell whats going on and are playing the game as well.

If people would open their eyes, its clear one candidate actually putts country first and the other is willing to do virtually anything to win a campaign, even politicizing a $700,000,000 great depression avoiding wall street bail-out.

John McCain has no honor. I find his campaign behavior to be despicable.

AxmxZ said...

Gallup prediction: O 48-43

Alex S. said...

I am not surprised that you didn´t get into that office room, the most important office room of the most important office of the most important swing state.
Democrats only need to be on par with Republican turnout since Democrats outnumber them. But I also get the feeling that the Obama campaign thinks they have a slight edge.

shadowguidex said...

"How is McCain's decision playing in your local news?"

Badly. Letterman attacking the decision was a bigger story than the decision.

Vanessa said...

I doubt it axmxz

I still can't tell how this decision by McCain will play.

couchpotatoxxx12 said...

Now that Colorado and New Mexico are firmly in Obama's column, our only objective is defending NH, and even if McCain gets it, it's still a tie.

That's assuming we don't pick up VA. To be honest, I think McCain's chances of winning are even lower than 25% at the moment.

Eric said...

Above my Paygrade said...
If you trace my opinion on GOTV, I think the Repubs have it right, and that tho Obamaniacs are going overkill, but am open to being wrong, the election will show. I know people here in Michigan are getting fed up with being called 10 times by Obama supporters.

Republican viewpoint. We'll see if you're right. You'd think your assessment would show up in the polls. I'm sure you'd be sick of being called by Obama supporters. I'm annoyed to have a house with a MCcain/Palin sign across the street in a neighbor's yard, but I'm not voting for him anyway. I think you're probably wrong. The undecideds need to be reminded we don't neen 4 more years of crap. Like Colbert said if the alternative is the same SHITburger I've been eating for 8 years or something different, something different will do.

Arnold S. said...

I just read a piece today that the real margin of error on most polls is 55%. That's FIFTY-FIVE PERCENT! Is that true. If so it seems like all polls are good for is to try to push people one way or another like in elementary school when you wanted to vote for the "cool kids" for student government so you'd fit in. Do you guys agree?

Matt said...

That Arvada office must be where they are hoarding all of the "whitey" tapes. ;-))

Eric said...

Anyone see Letterman last night? Holy Crap! He was en fuego.

OTF said...

Another beat down in the polls for McCain today. The desperation is palpable. McCain's own internals showed the same thing so he pulled this ploy. Nobody is buying it and Obama played it perfectly with his actions and statements yesterday and today. A good showing a tthe debate by Obama or a blatant grand stand by McCain by not showing up and it's lights out for McCain. McCain is on the ropes, dazed and confused.

Above my Paygrade said...

On the GOTV, it is not my opinion that the Obamaniacs do not have a huge ground game, I just believe it is overkill and will show diminishing returns, people around me are being turned off. I changed my number to not get the calls. I raised funds for and actively supported Jennifer Granholm for reelection so I have been a prime target on Obama's hitlist. Granholm had my cell-phone number only not my home phone, so my cell phone rings non-stop with Obama calls, so I changed it. The mail still comes, but I use it for kindling in my fireplace.

I would have voted Dem for president for anyone but Obama, he just scares me. His resume goes from scary to inexperienced. Right now it is inexperienced, but only because he has taken off the Community Organizer and Chicago Annenberg Challenge references and people he dealt with. He was William Ayers Sockpuppet in CHicago for close to five years. Taking the already devastated public school system and turning it into the national joke, promoting political activism among students and parents, instead of teach reading, math and science. Its ridiculous. That and of course my previous rantings about infanticide and abortion on demand. His views are way too extreme for the Oval Office.

MATT J. H. said...

If any of you have not yet seen Wanda sykes on Leno, this is hillarous. Check it out

AxmxZ said...

arnold s.: If margins of error on these polls were really 55%, there would be no polling involved. There would be chimps flinging poo at random numbers scrolled on the wall.

Matt W said...

"“No, you’re not,” an openly hostile Brad said, when we suggested we’d just like to look around and check out the action. Apparently he was terrified of being quoted in the press, something we never do for staff"

Did you not just quote him? Is this not exactly what he was afraid of? Hmmmm

Above my Paygrade said...

You may since I am a little pissed about being on Obama's list and despite multiple tries cannot get off it.

Vanessa said...

gallup is late

Matt W said...

Gallup tied at 46

dominoid73 said...

Today's Gallup

Obama - 46
McCain - 46

Trolls in 3 . . . 2 . . . 1

Vanessa said...

he tied iT!

OTF said...

above my paygrade,

Who do you think your fooling? Your a RepubliCon playing concerned troll.."I'd like to vote dem" and then you spout RepubliCon smears and talking pts. Get serious, admit your a Republicon.

Craven said...

I'm still a little nervous. Colorado looks promising in many ways right now but every four years we hear this youth vote and minority turnout stuff and it never materializes. If McCain comes out of this looking like he put the country first and Obama looks like he only cares about his campaign this will only help the GOP. Only my liberal friends seem to think this is a cynical political move. The moderates think it actually shows McCain would rather lose the presidency than see our economy tank. And they say that Reid called him back to DC initially only to tell him not to come later. If that's so it looks like our party is the one playing partisan games.

esmith said...

I'm so confused:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vMQxDprCVbE

why would he say that unless the bailout bill is passed by friday he will not join the debate? Is he going to join the debate? If he is so busy why did he speak at the CGI today? I am ... puzzled, confused, perplexed, baffled... speechless.

Matt W said...

Polls are probably heavily influenced by exactly when they were in the field yesterday.

Charles M. Kozierok said...

"I would have voted Dem for president for anyone but Obama, he just scares me."

Right. I wonder what it could be that's so 'scary' about him.. what could it be.. what could it be...

"His resume goes from scary to inexperienced."

Compared to Sarah Palin he's John McCain. That doesn't scare you though.. wonder why... wonder why...

"He was William Ayers Sockpuppet in CHicago for close to five years."

Total bullshit, of course. But since you've decided to hate the guy, no surprise you'd choose to believe this.

"His views are way too extreme for the Oval Office."

Oh of course, what were we thinking?

Far better to have "moderate" views like "bomb bomb Iran" and "let's go hunt some witches" in the White House.

shadowguidex said...

"I just read a piece today that the real margin of error on most polls is 55%. That's FIFTY-FIVE PERCENT! Is that true. If so it seems like all polls are good for is to try to push people one way or another like in elementary school when you wanted to vote for the "cool kids" for student government so you'd fit in. Do you guys agree?"

Well I have a mathematics degree, and I understand the fundamentals of mathematical statistics even though it wasn't my emphasis, and to answer your question...as long as people are being honest in their responses and the pollsters methodology is correct, hell yes they matter. Individual people's opinions eventually give way to generality no matter what, given a large enough sampling, it's just the way it is.

Darío said...

Tied at 46
Gallup

Rasmussen, Obama +3

Diageo Obama +4

Battleground McCain +1

Deadpixel said...

That's it Gallup is retarded, no wait ALL tracking polls are RETARDED!!!

AxmxZ said...

Wow! So once again, Ras goes one way, and Gallup altogether the other.

So wait... now Ras, with his +5 Dem advantage, has Obama at +3, and Gallup, with their +9 Dem advantage, have them tied?

What?

Charles M. Kozierok said...

"Obama - 46
McCain - 46"

LOL. That is seriously whacked.

I guess Americans continue to show how stupid they are.

Matt W said...

esmith,
everyone knows that the CGI is more important than the debate, I mean obviously and especially for a presidential candidate 5 weeks away from election

couchpotatoxxx12 said...

What the hell? Gallup is tied, but RASMUSSEN shows an Obama gain?

Something smells fishy here.

Michael said...

Alex S., Democrats DO NOT outnumber Republicans in Colorado.

AxmxZ said...

Interesting:

"A night by night analysis of interviewing results, however, does not suggest that McCain had a dramatically better night against Obama on Wednesday. Instead, the data show that McCain has been doing slightly better for the last three days than he had in the previous week, and with some strong Obama days falling off of the rolling average, the race has moved to its current tied position."

So last night *wasn't* a big polling night for McCain. Or for Obama. This is kind of odd. Unless they polled generally before McCain's afternoon announcement?..

Becky Sharp said...

""I just read a piece today that the real margin of error on most polls is 55%. That's FIFTY-FIVE PERCENT!"

If it were 55% then in today's Gallup poll Obama could be at 25% or he could be at...75%!

Before you blindly parrot things you read, run it by the common sense test first

Eric said...

Gallup implies last nightwasn't particularyl McCain heavy, but the last 3 days have been pretty much tied and the previous 3 were big Obama days. Why exactly would that be? If Gallup is right about the country, they were initially shocked at McCain's handling of the news of the economic crisis, but are over it. Seems nonsensical to me, but I'm biased.

Geoff said...

So with Gallup tied, i see the lefties above are now speaking darkly of Gallup being a rightist organization lying for McCain, and Ras has been "rehabilitated" into being the truth teller because he shows three point lead?

You all do realize that NBC/WSJ had it at a two point race, and Gallup interviews are at night while Ras is during the day. Ergo, the McCain announcement hit Gallup harder and RAs less.

Charles M. Kozierok said...

"So last night *wasn't* a big polling night for McCain. Or for Obama. This is kind of odd. Unless they polled generally before McCain's afternoon announcement?.."

Even that makes no sense, unless Americans are truly stupid beyond all measure.

Any sane person would see right through this and not give McCain any undeserved credit.

Darío said...

Geoff, what do you think about McCain´s decition?.
You´re intelligent.

Vanessa said...

Geoff so you think the McCain announcement played favourably?

DCM in FL said...

GALLUP commentary seems almost appologetic for claiming theie national tracker is again tied @ 46 today... lol

it is quite the surprise - but not unexpected since it is Gallup

Vanessa said...

geoff,
Gallup said that lastnight wasnt especially strong.

Darío said...

Vanessa, the Gallup tracking is for 22-24 september.

AxmxZ said...

geoff: Your ass must be very roomy - look what you just pulled out of it! Gallup being a "rightist" organization, and Ras being "rehabilitated"... Say, would you mind showing me the "lefty" who said all these things? Or do we just assume you are inventing "facts" to suit your opinions as per usual?

Subterranean said...

Obama needs to do two things to win the election, in order of importance:

1. Get the VP debate aired on national TV.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
2. Keep breathing.

Palin. Is. Utterly. Incoherent.

Charles M. Kozierok said...

I don't blame Gallup. They can't help having to poll a nation full of morons.

Arnold said...

axmxz

55%? It sounds crazy. But how often have the polls been wrong? A lot! Much of the time when you compare them to the actual election results. Remember 2004? Kerry should be running for reelection right now. I'm just nervous that cell phones and other factors we don't have a clue about mean we don't know what's going on. And if McCain has tied it in this difficult climate, then we don't know which way this will go. Argh this is annoying. I'm like Vanessa.

couchpotatoxxx12 said...

This is odd...I'd expect it to range from M+1-O+1 tomorrow, and then by Saturday and Sunday to have an Obama lead again.

OTF said...

Folks for the 100th time and always ignored...National polls are overblown and mean little. We have EC vote system. You have no clue what states they polled and how many from each state. Even if they said we polled 25% from the midwest. The states very greatly in support for insatnce IL, IN, MO border eacxh other. One is an obama lock(Il), one a very hopeful(IN) and one a dream(MO). None of the antional polls give you an extensive crosstab to determine the demographic accuracy to be truly representative of the nation at large. Ignore national polls, that's what I do.

Darío said...

This Gallup tracking is before the McCain decition.

AxmxZ said...

arnold: I don't think you quite understand the concept of "margin of error" and how it relates to a poll being "wrong"...

McFloat said...

"So with Gallup tied, i see the lefties above are now speaking darkly of Gallup being a rightist organization lying for McCain, and Ras has been "rehabilitated" into being the truth teller because he shows three point lead?"

What the hell are you talking about?

Charles M. Kozierok said...

Dario:

"This update covers interviewing conducted Monday through Wednesday, and as such includes one night after McCain's announcement that he was suspending election campaigning and flying to Washington to help seek a bipartisan solution to the financial crisis."

Matt W said...

People we need a few more days before we see how this plays out. Sadly the debate will probably drown out the true impact of McCain's move. You are all drawing conclusions from the next day tracking numbers, which dropped Sunday, added Wed, and still include Mon and Tues. This cannot possibly tell anyone anything about what happened YESTERDAY!

dominoid73 said...

The GOP pisses me off. Yet another GOP clerk tells college students that if they are claimed on their parents taxes they can't vote in the state they are attending college. They tried this in VA and now in Colorado too. Asses. Some other interesting stuff in the article too about the GOP trying to tell people under foreclosure that they can't vote in Michigan! Time for another donation to camp Obama.

http://www.azcentral.com/news/election/president/articles/2008/09/24/20080924campaign0924voters.html

couchpotatoxxx12 said...

"So with Gallup tied, i see the lefties above are now speaking darkly of Gallup being a rightist organization lying for McCain, and Ras has been "rehabilitated" into being the truth teller because he shows three point lead?"

What the hell are you talking about? I still think Rasmussen is biased, that's why I'm so puzzled right now.

Charles M. Kozierok said...

"What the hell are you talking about?"

He'll tell you as soon as Limbaugh tells him.

Arnold said...

55% sounds like a huge margin of error. But even election-day exit polls are often wrong. I feel like we don't have a clue what the real polls are right now. Who would have believed McCain's move yesterday would have tied it up in Gallup. Clearly the pundits see McCain's move as bad, but the populace thinks it's presidential. What is going on in this crazy country?

AxmxZ said...

otf: Well, yes, the national polls are basically useless, but we do expect them to show, broadly, directions and trends. And once again, Gallup and Ras, the two pillars of the poling community, are diverging widely and quickly. And in completely bemusing ways: it used to be that Ras would lean McCain, with Dem advantage being only +5 for his sample, and be slow to show Obama gaining, while Gallup would both represent Dems more generously and be more sensitive towards Obama swings because of it.

So the trends they are *both* following now are completely out of character for them and seem mutually exclusive. And yet there they are.

Meanwhile, Diageo poll has Obama losing two points from yesterday, and R2000 has him gain two, so zero help there.

I guess today will be the first real post-McCain suspension polling day.

PorDem said...

That gallup number is a bit strange and is going against other trackers..but this isn't a national election. State by state. Obama is still in good position. With McCain admitting he didn't look at the full details of the bill, he won't be looked at as the savior of this bill.

Dems just need to relax. State polls are looking good so far for Obama, let's see how the days cycle plays out. If McCain shows up tomorrow he will have gotten punked into doing so. If not, then he has a serious image problem to deal with.

esmith said...

AxmxZ said...

So wait... now Ras, with his +5 Dem advantage, has Obama at +3, and Gallup, with their +9 Dem advantage, have them tied?

What?


I'm sure there is an explanation; I'd say the bench warmer demographic. I think they really related to McCain's decision to quit playing in the middle of the game for no reason what-so ever.

DCM in FL said...

GALLUP knows how to feed the beast.

this result countering the trend up for every other tracker [even Battleground which is a joke], guarantees that Gallup will lead the MSM news readers on cable & primetime tonight.

'close race' - the maverick move is paying off...

GIGO - Gallup 9/25

couchpotatoxxx12 said...

If I'd have to guess, McCain had average days on Mon-Wed (Tie or M+1), but Obama had a really good day on Sunday, which dropped off.

So it looks like Gallup's Wednesday poll...that McCain's decision really didn't affect voters all that much. Interesting, though this won't be completely clear until the weekend.

Geoff said...

An example of the turning on Gallup by lefties:

couchpotatoxxx12 said...
What the hell? Gallup is tied, but RASMUSSEN shows an Obama gain?

Something smells fishy here.

Fishy, because McCain has gained support and Obama has lost support? Any other reason?

Regarding the propriety of McCain's choice of action, it was a good tactical choice and a good choice for the US Economy. Please read this link, and you all tell me if the Dems were saying on Tuesday that McCain MUST strongly support the bailout to get it passed? Obviously they were. So McCain steps up, and now the same Reid who begged for MCCain's leadership now says he's unfairly injecting presidential politics?
http://www.cfo.com/article.cfm/12288264/c_12287342?f=home_todayinfinance

The bottom line is that this was a risk free move for McCain as it can only help him with cred on bipartisanship (the "McCain-Dodd" bailout) and taking action instead of saying "Call me if you need me".

Geoff said...

Couch, what about the endless talk about how McCain does better on weekends? Is that now "inoperative" ?

Charles M. Kozierok said...

Another possibility is that this is another polarizing move where Republicans "rah rah" McCain's false 'bipartisanship', Democrats poo-pooh it and the folks in the middle are confused, leading to polling abberations.

Becky Sharp said...

>>Who would have believed McCain's move yesterday would have tied it up in Gallup. Clearly the pundits see McCain's move as bad, but the populace thinks it's presidential.

Clearly? Hardly.

shadowguidex said...

I'll take tied, it's not like it says McCain is up by 4 points. All the state polls recently have been favorable, and the national says it's tied, hell, sounds like good news compared to the post-republican bounce period.

InkStain said...

The race is still +2-4 for Obama.

It's perfectly reasonable that a single tracking poll could come up with an even result in that environment.

No more explanation needed than that.

MATT J. H. said...

You guys freak out over polls too much. Your waiting on pins and needles for polling results. When they are good you get euphoric and when they are bad you get depressed.

Gallup usually tracks up and down between a 5 point range so we have to wait and see the range. A lot is happening with the electorate right now with the bailout and the debates, by the end of next week we'll have a much better idea where everything is.

Obama seems to have gained some electoral strength but the situation is fluid. Lets see how the debates go, and if there are no debates how the bailout politics go.

Eric said...

Something to acknowledge. For those of us junkies who are seemingly living and dying with the poll numbers giving us a sense of where the elctorate is, I at least have to admit the Gallup polling is all of the sudden confusing as hell to me. It's their biggest outlier I can remember in 3 months. That number makes zero sense to me. The didn't have a big Obama fall off yesterday as they claim. It would've had to be something like a +6 Obama day fall off and a +2 McCain night last night to have this big of a swing. Doesn't make sense to me. I've had a pretty good read of where this country is and where their headed and I wouldn't have guessed we're back to even with McCain having the momentum. I would argue that if all of the media except PBS and C-SPan are biased than Gallup leans right, but that doesn't explain anything here. The state polling does lag the daily trackers and if Gallup is right, everything we think we know, we don't. I, for one, have no idea how Obama's 5 point lead would've evaporated over the last 3 days. Makes no sense that I can see. I did predict the Palin bubble inflating, so I'm not being biased here, just surprised at either Gallup's poor polling or the country's movement. This has to be one or the other.

Charles M. Kozierok said...

"The bottom line is that this was a risk free move for McCain"

Only if Americans are absolute drooling morons. But of course, that's how he's run his entire campaign.

God help the rest of us if we collectively get the government we deserve thanks to McCain's "base".

Geoff said...

See above Couch. Charles, you're a mouthpiece of Olbermann and just as lacking in logic.

Jonathan said...

The VP choices usually don't matter so much, but given McCain's age I think Palin will get especially close scrutiny from voters.

McCain's choice of her is looking worse by the day.

Becky Sharp said...

OTF I agree. Except I'm slightly more inclined to take notice of Rasmussen shifts because (apparently) they poll pretty much the same voter pool each day

OTF: Folks for the 100th time and always ignored...National polls are overblown and mean little. We have EC vote system. You have no clue what states they polled and how many from each state. Even if they said we polled 25% from the midwest. The states very greatly in support for insatnce IL, IN, MO border eacxh other. One is an obama lock(Il), one a very hopeful(IN) and one a dream(MO). None of the antional polls give you an extensive crosstab to determine the demographic accuracy to be truly representative of the nation at large. Ignore national polls, that's what I do.

Carson P. said...

Arnold S.}

I read that article too. It just means that polls pretty much mean nothing. And as someone just stated the national polls are completely meaningless because it's all about the electoral votes. And Obama has the narrow lead! Horay!
If the Gallup tracker shows McCain tied that means it was before his rush back to DC. So either he was already tying it up in which case this move could drop him behind again or boost him ahead. I totally didn't see this coming. I thought Obama would surge ahead against like yesterday. Unless the corporate media wants to keep it close to sell political advertising. This can't be real for McCain.

InkStain said...

Short memories around here.

Last week, Diago had a sudden +4 O to +1 O movement. When the fluke polling day fell off, it was right back in line with everyone else.

PA John said...

Geoff,

You, sir, are being a troll and trying to stir shit. No one is saying that.

By the way, Obama is up to 58-59 on intrade.

Nicholas said...

People, people: look at the aggregate. We should know this more than anyone.

Our most recent polls show:

O+9 (ABC)
O+6 (R2000)
O+6 (Fox)
O+4 (Hotline0
O+4 (LA Times)
O+4 (CNN)
O+3 (Ras)
O+2 (NBC)
O+1 (Ipsos)
Tied (Gallup)
M+1 (Battleground

Mean: Obama +3.5
Medium: Obama +4
Mode: Obama +4

Charles M. Kozierok said...

"I'll take tied, it's not like it says McCain is up by 4 points. All the state polls recently have been favorable, and the national says it's tied, hell, sounds like good news compared to the post-republican bounce period."

This race shouldn't even be close at this point.

McCain and Palin are both total embarrassments completely unready for the office.

What a sad commentary on the state of our nation's intelligence and education that 46% of Americans think that dishonest, manipulative buffoon should be president.

realistxxx said...

RE: Gallup

We are clearly in an O +2 or +3 national environment. Therefore, polls showing anything within 3-5 points above or below that should not surprise anyone.

The key question is: Is Gallup signifying a trend back to McCain or is Rasmussen suggesting a push toward Obama?

Nobody knows. This could be just normal error around a steady state mean of Obama +2 or +3.

Clearly, however, the recent events in the economy and the campaign are shaking things up. We'll know next week whether things have stabilized or are moving one direction or another. Then we will have to wait until the next week to see if that continues... and so on and so on.

I know I am stating the obvious, but the response to individual polls here sometimes is over the top.

Nicholas said...

SurveyUSA has Obama +6 in Pennsylvania.

DCM in FL said...

GEOFF

sorry, but your argument fails.

McCain did not 'gain' any support in any of the tracker polls.

at best he held steady in the mid-40's. which one shows even a marginal gain in support ?

a couple showed a marginal regression [ie drop] for Obama's #'s - while several showed an increase in Obama's #'s.

On average, McCain held steady while across the board Obama may have dropped about .5% in the range of national trackers...

get it straight, troll

couchpotatoxxx12 said...

"Fishy, because McCain has gained support and Obama has lost support? Any other reason?"

No, it's fishy because the Republican biased poll is showing an opposite trend than the non-biased one. I never said Rasmussen was good, I still think they're biased. I still think Gallup isn't biased either. It's just ODD

Charles M. Kozierok said...

Geoff: John McCain is a traitor and so are you for supporting him.

Thanks for the comparison to Olbermann, one of the few real patriots willing to speak the truth about what you GOP fuckheads have done to this country for 8 years, and want to do for 4 more.

AxmxZ said...

geoff: No, geoff, "fishy" because they are moved 4 points total in different directions. That's what's "fishy" about the Ras/Gallup polls, not that Obama is OMGlosing. You aren't that stupid, so why do you pretend to be?

Vanessa said...

They just came to agreement on the bill.

John McCain is going to take credit for this.

justin32099 said...

"Fishy, because McCain has gained support and Obama has lost support? Any other reason?"

Because 3-point one-day swings are odd? Because Rasmussen is swinging just as strongly, in the opposite direction?

Saying the result is bizarre is very different from saying the pollster is fixing it.

Also, there is no way McCain gets credit for the bailout deal. He may try to TAKE credit for it. CNN is now reporting that the House and Senate have agreed on a deal and are taking it to Paulson. Is McCain even in Washington yet?

Geoff said...

PA, I was just pointing out the hypocrisy of the people on here who cheerlead Ras when Obama is up and cheerlead Gallup when Obama is up --- but if Obama is down or tied, than Gallup/Ras is the devil.

It's silly.

And yes, the Intrade market move clearly disproves the hysterical paranoia of McCain fixing those markets in yesterday's piece on here, which of course was happily embraced by the hard left commentators.

John M. said...

So to sum up the trackers today:

R2000: O+2
Ras: O+1
BG: O+1
Hotline: M+2
Gallup: M+3

That, my friends, looks like a wash to me. Albeit I have quit trying to crack the daily numbers.

As far as state polls, let's erase the outliers...

NC: Ras O+2
MI: NBC Tied

Not much else sticks out. Maybe Palin helping McCain in Maine a bit, which might explain his improving numbers in NH. I still wanna see another NH poll or two, along with some NV polls.

Eh. This is why I like Nate's regression. Race has been remarkably static since Obama took a ~2-point lead 5 days ago.

Bill P. said...

Bob Dole 1996 > John McCain 2008

That's reality.

shadowguidex said...

Calm down with the "Americans are idiots" stuff Charles M. Kozierok, it's just a tied poll not a bloody coup. The average of all polling is still above 0, and the state polling recently has been outstanding. Take a break from the internet for a while if you need a breather buddy, go for a walk out in the sunshine or something, your emotions are tied entirely too much to this Gallup poll. Tied isn't exactly down 6.

Mason said...

RE: Speculating about trackers.
Without knowing what's going on behind the curtain, we're just throwing darts in a dark room.

p smith said...

Relax. It's one poll. By tomorrow we will have had the first debate (yes, we will, because the bail out deal is now done before McLiar even got there) and everything we will change again.

The numbers are great for Obama right now and even a fool should only look to polling averages to form any firm conclusions

Chicago Cubs fan said...

Charles

Didn't you say yesterday you thought Palin did pretty well with Couric? Could this be a bump from her performance making her look less risky because of her conversation with CBS coupled with the over the top berating by Letterman which actually helps McCain with the Hollywood-haters?

Geoff said...

The deal was on the brink on Tues/early Weds before McCain made his move. Read the comments from Dems saying McCain must get involved and produce GOP votes.

Geez, immediate historical rewriting 101.

Antmatic said...

1. John McCain isnt' even in Washington yet, dude can't take credit for any announcement

2. Tracking polls are a lot of noise individually; taken together, Obama has a 2-3 point lead.

3. Maris has a LV national poll out with Obama up 49-44.

Vanessa said...

Don't forget Battleground O +1

MrInsight22 said...

Of the three main trackers, Rasmussen saw a 1-point Obama gain but Hotline had a 2-point McCain gain and Gallup had a 3-point McCain gain.

Keep polls in perspective. A week before the 2004 election, half of pollsters had Kerry ahead. And on election day 2004, the exit polls said Kerry would take OH and FL for a solid win.

I don't care what the polls in NC say, for example, because I am sure that Obama cannot carry that state in the end when Clinton could not do it with Perot's help and there will be a Bradley effect.

AnotherMike said...

But how often have the polls been wrong? A lot! Much of the time when you compare them to the actual election results. Remember 2004? Kerry should be running for reelection right now.

Every poll average and almost every poll had Bush ahead. The polls got it right in 2004.

Vanessa said...

antmatic,
It's not about what he actually does. It's perception.

Charles M. Kozierok said...

"They just came to agreement on the bill.

John McCain is going to take credit for this."

Well, the bastard took credit for the GI bill he fought tooth and nail against, so nothing would surprise me at this point.

McCain and truth have become oil and water.

And yes, Americans are stupid. Very stupid. This election should already be over and their stupidity is the only reason it is not.

Geoff said...

DCM, you are the troll. McCain is up two points and OBama is down 4 points in GAllup. That's the reality, deal with it.


doesnt really mean anything, just means that McCain's move is helping him dig out of the hole the crisis put him in.

Charles M. Kozierok said...

"The deal was on the brink on Tues/early Weds before McCain made his move."

Then why did he bother with his stunt, genius?

MATT J. H. said...

We are clearly in an O +2 or +3 national environment. Therefore, polls showing anything within 3-5 points above or below that should not surprise anyone.

Exactly. Guys its only Obama by 2-4 points nationally. Anything from even to O+6 is well within polling error. Obama is never going to get above +4 Nationally in this environment anyway. The nation is too divided. Nate has it at +2, and thats my guess. Gallup all tied is well within the margin of error.

PorDem said...

Everybody here, from Dems to Reps, love to scream OUTLIER! Well could it be that..oh idk Gallup had an outlier in there somewhere? Everywhere else has Obama +2 to +4, and Gallup hasn't been so great this time around showing trends.

Plus from the looks of it Michigan is moving away from McCain, but PA is odd. NC has moved towards Obama...WTF?

Bill P. said...

The big question will be:

Did John McCain save America's economy before or after he invented the Blackberry?

AxmxZ said...

geoff:

"...but if Obama is down or tied, than Gallup/Ras is the devil."

"Just the place for a Snark! I have said it twice:
That alone should encourage the crew.
Just the place for a Snark! I have said it thrice:
What i tell you three times is true."

Bill P. said...

Um, anyone who think's today's trackers are showing the full effect of yesterday's boneheaded blunder from McCain just doesn't understand polling or science. Just sayin'.

John M. said...

Geoff, re: intrade

I would argue the exact opposite. The race hasn't moved a lick from 3 days ago, when Intrade had Obama at +51. Really, all we got is a couple good numbers for Obama in CO. Now he's at +59, which is much closer to being in line with other betting houses. I noticed a lot of big money stacking up on the bid side last night. Wonder if people have gotten wise.

dominoid73 said...

National Journal Polls
(small sample sizes & large undecided)

Michigan
Obama - 47
McCain 39

New Hampshire
Obama - 44
McCain -43

Pennsylvania
Obama - 43
McCain - 41

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/nationaljournal_mi_nh_pa_91822.php

Chicago Cubs fan said...

shadowguidex

I agree about Charles. Attacking the US population as ignorant idiots plays into the Democrats are elitists who hate America. All we need is for Rush Limbaugh to quote him and have Faux News pick it up. That would hurt us with INDs.

Blame said...

I just can't get over how good the photography is.

Oh, and did sombody check out the ground game too? err.. great job.

Mason said...

Keep polls in perspective. A week before the 2004 election, half of pollsters had Kerry ahead. And on election day 2004, the exit polls said Kerry would take OH and FL for a solid win.

FL: Bullshit.
OH: By a hair. Maybe.

Geoff said...

Charles, read the link.

Dodd said yesterday before McCain's annoucement that the deal was not workable, as did Reid.

Wake up, quit rewriting history.

liberal_defender_of_freedom said...

Gallup is obviously a right wing political hack and Rasmussen is apparently a radical left influenced pollster.

Charles M. Kozierok said...

"All we need is for Rush Limbaugh to quote him and have Faux News pick it up. That would hurt us with INDs"

LOL! Like Rush Limbaugh or anyone else cares what I think!

Sorry that the truth is so politically incorrect, but anyone who fell for this stunt by McCain and thought he was showing his "leadership" or that he was really "suspending his campaign" is an absolute, unqualified IDIOT.

MrInsight22 said...

Marist is a very-low-rated poll on the 538 list. It is a garbage poll in this cycle, recently giving outlier numbers in Obama's favor in one state after another as you can see on Nate's state charts.

For example, NH-based ARG, NH-based UNH, and Rasmussen all give McCain the current lead in NH but bogus NY-based Marist has Obama ahead there by 6 points. Marist is just one step above Zogby Interactive and the Daily Kos tracker.

Greg said...

Charles you are a terd. And probably a homosexual.

Charles M. Kozierok said...

"Wake up, quit rewriting history."

You're the one doing that, asshole.

They ALL said that they were working on getting it done and didn't need or want McCain or Obama's involvement.

Go back to suckling Rush's teat.

IntradeSpeculator said...

I love Intrade. I guess I'm an addict. I've been hearing that the reason Obama is soaring is speculation that Biden is being dropped October 2 for Hillary. An Obama-Hillary ticket will cruise to an easy victory so that's why people are jumping back onto Obama's bandwagon. We could make a lot of money by picking his option up now.

ozzie said...

This is excellent news for John McCain!

MI 47 Obama
39 McCain

His campaign was dragging down is support below 40%. Now that he has suspended his campaign, his numbers will rebound! Or maybe he needs to stop buying foreign cars if he wants to win in Michigan.

http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/pi_20080927_1179.php

PorDem said...

Do people actually think that this bailout is going to help McCain? Or hell even Obama? It's a bipartisan bill...which means both sides worked on it. McCain didn't get there any earlier than Obama. It's a draw, considering that most Americans don't want this bailout for wall street. Wake up seriously with this oh McCain is a savior bullshit. Come on

Mason said...

Marist is just one step above Zogby Interactive and the Daily Kos tracker.

You do know that the Kos tracker is R2000 (PIE +1.73), right? Marist is +2.79. The latter is below average but it's no ZI (PIE=+5.73).

justin32099 said...

"Dodd said yesterday before McCain's annoucement that the deal was not workable, as did Reid."

And you're actually saying that the deal has now been completed because of McCain? He made his announcement and then stayed in NY for more interviews.

No one was saying "without McCain support, nothing will happen," it was just that it might not be done by tomorrow. I don't really see why some sort of immediate deadline is being created here...it's more important to do the right thing.

MrInsight22 said...

mason, you obviously did not get the Drudge-leaked early exit polls in 2004 that showed Kerry taking FL and OH with NC very close.

Tony Blair said he went to bed in England thinking that Kerry was going to win based on the exit poll info he had been given. He woke up surprised to hear Dubya was reelected.

shadowguidex said...

The 2004 Ohio polling was off only because they didn't take into account the massive Bush ground game that year. Hmmm.... ;)

OTF said...

Mrinsight,

NO insight again,

ARG is the same as Marist in pollster rankings but since Marist showed Obama ahead it's bogus. You're too easy to be shown a fool.

Charles M. Kozierok said...

"Do people actually think that this bailout is going to help McCain? Or hell even Obama? It's a bipartisan bill...which means both sides worked on it. McCain didn't get there any earlier than Obama. It's a draw, considering that most Americans don't want this bailout for wall street. Wake up seriously with this oh McCain is a savior bullshit. Come on"

The problem is that you're right, but it doesn't matter.

Look at this whole campaign. McCain's people openly saying issues don't matter, facts don't matter, lies don't matter.

Our nation has become so fucking stupid that reality is irrelevant, and an utterly corrupt, dishonest, craven man like John McCain is close to the presidency entirely on the basis of manufactured narrative.

This is what is so shameful.

Bill P. said...

Please, by all means tell Americans that Wall Street got bailed out because John McCain suspended his campaign. Please. Sure, it's not true, but if you say it then Americans will totally believe you!

Here's what the conservative kids don't get:

If John McCain is perceived as being responsible for a major Wall Street bailout, John McCain is fucked.

If John McCain is perceived as playing politics with the economic crisis, John McCain is fucked.

Either way, John McCain is fucked. It was an incredibly stupid move from an incredibly stupid campaign. Steve Schmidt will be lucky to get a school board race after this debacle.

AxmxZ said...

Something tells me that we're not ever going to find out how the "suspension" decision affected the numbers. Tomorrow will be the only day when we might see numbers reflecting that action, taken today, and by Saturday well be already in post-debate territory.

dpldust said...

The bizarre thing is that Ras went out of their way to say that JM had bad days M-W and to indicate that their about to tick up on BO's lead. Read them both, it is quite odd. Unless you feel that one or both are cooking the books to create confusion. Not saying either or both are doing this - just saying what it seems like.

liberal_defender_of_freedom said...
This post has been removed by the author.
ObamaDude said...

How can McCain take credit for this? Obama deserves more credit. He strongly supported it when McCain was saying the economy was very strong last week. Just like McCain.

Mule Rider said...

Fellas, fellas. Let's try and keep it civil. I know...hard to take a request like that seriously from the grand field marshall of incivility...but let's try, anyway.

Geoff said...

You guys really think that the Dems weren't calling for McCain to intervene and rally GOP votes to save the package? Are you seriously making that claim in the face of all of the Dem comments on Tues and Weds prior to the McCain announcement?
McCain holds the key to such a bipartisan vote, according to Reid, because Republicans are likely to defer to his position on a bill that holds political peril. McCain on Tuesday night joined Democratic presidential nominee Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.) in lending qualified support for the $700 billion package, but it remains unclear whether his backing is strong enough and timely enough to persuade the Congressional rank and file. According to a Democratic aide familiar with the discussions, Reid told Paulson this week that "if McCain didn't come out for this thing and come out for it quickly, it was going to begin bleeding Republican votes." Democrats "have a very real concern that opposition [from McCain] is going to drive away potential Republican votes," this aide said.

Mason said...

mason, you obviously did not get the Drudge-leaked early exit polls in 2004 that showed Kerry taking FL and OH with NC very close.

Drudge was wrong? What a frakkin surprise.

John M. said...

MrInsight, are you honestly defending ARG?

What we have in NH:

Rasmussen (a great pollster with a small R house effect), M+2
UNH (a respected pollster; that 7-pt shift in party ID towards R's is suspicious and the start of the poll predates Obama's bounce), M+2
ARG (the dog's bollocks) M+2

Marist (a ok but unspectacular pollster with a moderate D house effect) O+6

I am thinking of NH as a pure tossup until I get another poll in that state.

couchpotatoxxx12 said...

If we really want perspective about who is going to win the Electoral vote this year, then look at this:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Sep25.html

At this same day 4 years ago, Kerry was down 207-311. The ONLY states Kerry was doing better than Obama in are Massachusetts, Arizona, and maybe a couple of Safe GOP states that Palin energized this year.

Obama's advantage is extremely big when you take it in context. Wisconsin was considered STRONG GOP in 2004. Just sayin.

Charles M. Kozierok said...

"How can McCain take credit for this?"

How could he take credit for the GI Bill he opposed, while simultaneously denigrating the military vet who fought for it for 18 months?

He's a shameless liar whose campaign is aimed at the stupid and gullible, that's how.

Mule Rider said...

It's for different reasons, but I'd say it's difficult to swallow that Obama is so close to the presidency based on a manufactured narrative.

MrInsight22 said...

Marist is one of the lowest multi-state pollsters ranked by 538, with only afew pollsters between Marist and Zogby Interactive.

The 538 ranking for Research 2000 is based on their aiight state polls, not the never-before-done national Daily Kos Resaerch 2000 tracker which is so bogus it has Hispanics as 15% of likely voters even though the Pew Hispanic Center says thay make up only 8% of actual voters.

OTF said...

McCain seems like a bigger fool than usual. He makes a big deal of coming back to solve somethings. despite he has zero economic expertise and it's done before gets on the plane. McCain looks spooked, while Obama was calm and steady on the issue yesterday. McCain spastic and Obama cool. Which is more presidential? Obama hands down!

Charles M. Kozierok said...

"According to a Democratic aide familiar with the discussions, Reid told Paulson this week that "if McCain didn't come out for this thing and come out for it quickly, it was going to begin bleeding Republican votes."

They needed his VOTE not all the crap he pulled yesterday. Jesus Christ.

fred said...

Gallup is a bizarre pollster - they are less reliable than Ras, but also have a smaller hosue effect.

Don't worry about Gallup, there polls also had the weird outliers last month (their single coverage polls).

Mule Rider said...

OTF,

They don't need economic expertise. They need leadership. Heaven help us if Congress was made up of 535 economic "experts."

Geoff said...

Chuck, so McCain is supposedly to blindly agree without being in on the specifics when he's teh leader of his party?

Sorry, Dems cant whine about needing McCain for political cover and then whine more when he steps up.

Charles M. Kozierok said...

Bill --

Sometimes a post just really cuts through with a viewpoint I hadn't considered and yours did. Thanks.

"Please, by all means tell Americans that Wall Street got bailed out because John McCain suspended his campaign. Please. Sure, it's not true, but if you say it then Americans will totally believe you!

Here's what the conservative kids don't get:

If John McCain is perceived as being responsible for a major Wall Street bailout, John McCain is fucked.

If John McCain is perceived as playing politics with the economic crisis, John McCain is fucked.

Either way, John McCain is fucked. It was an incredibly stupid move from an incredibly stupid campaign. Steve Schmidt will be lucky to get a school board race after this debacle."

PorridgeGun said...

Gallup are off their fucking heads.


Just as well this week's state polling is looking sweet for Obama, because the daily trackers are making my teeth itch.

ObamaDude said...

Ignore Gallup. They're on the payroll of Bush-Cheney. Rasmussen is finally showing the truth. My instinct is that Obama is really about +10 nationally and leading in all the swing states but NC.

PorDem said...

I think that McCain's base are the low info voters. The INDY's that are left are neither right of left leaning indys. They would have jumped by now. They are true indys and with that McCain has to win by a nice 10% margin to offset Obama. Hasn't worked so far.

Gallup = Outlier.
Rasmussen seems to have steadied this race. Can't believe im saying that.

Gallup is everywhere for little reason.

Mason said...

Marist is one of the lowest multi-state pollsters ranked by 538, with only afew pollsters between Marist and Zogby Interactive.

Those numbers on the right side of those rankings have a meaning.

Charles M. Kozierok said...

"Chuck, so McCain is supposedly to blindly agree without being in on the specifics when he's teh leader of his party?

Sorry, Dems cant whine about needing McCain for political cover and then whine more when he steps up."

Fuck you REALLY ARE this stupid.

They didn't need his leadership or his input. What they needed was HIS VOTE. That was required to make sure that the Republicans wouldn't try to exploit this bailout for political purposes by painting McCain as opposed to the bailout during the campaign.

That's it. His vote. That's all they needed. Everything he did yesterday was purest 100% bullshit grandstanding for political purposes. And morons like you fall for it EVERY time.

Vanessa said...

Stop criticizing the tracking polls dude!

Bill P. said...

YW, Charles. Thanks for the props!

Mule Rider said...

Fuck you REALLY ARE this stupid

Charles M. Kozierok = Mule Rider circa July/August

shadowguidex said...

"Ignore Gallup. They're on the payroll of Bush-Cheney. Rasmussen is finally showing the truth. My instinct is that Obama is really about +10 nationally and leading in all the swing states but NC."

Obamadude....

Your post is ridiculous, and I'm suspecting that you're a conservative trying to fuel some weird fire here, since if you're a normal poster here you'd not make silly-ass statements like the above. Anyway, don't _ignore_ the Gallup poll but don't bet your house on it either...and no way Obama is up 10%, and no way Gallup is biased or on Bush's payroll, that's just a dumb thing to say.

Mason said...

Fuck you REALLY ARE this stupid

Charles M. Kozierok = Mule Rider circa July/August


Yep. Except he's right. :-P

OTF said...

RepubliCons get some facts. McCain stated he hadn'r even read the basics of the Paulson Plan as of yesterday. Seems the RepubliCons on the Hill were keeping MCcain out of the loop or he freaking incompetent in getting information. Obama was in contact with all the Dem leaders and Paulson the last few days. Again one was acting presidential and one wasn't. Again Obama wins hands down.

McCain acted spastic yesterday in action and words and Obama was cool and presidential. McCain was grand-standing and pullig stunts and Obama was presidential again.

The choice is clear: McCain=impulsive, spastic, hip shooter....Obama-prganatic, cool under pressure, intellectual decison maker.

Obama has a Presidential mentality and McCain has a fighter pilots mentality.

Ian Burns said...

So it looks likely that McCain won't be able to back out of the debate. You think he'll try to pull out "Surge Surge Surge, Defeat and Retreat"? Or will that cut against new new image as a bipartisan maverick?

I lost track of who he was campaigning as this week.

liberal_defender_of_freedom said...

Financial agreement reached here.

Now it is in Bush's hands.

AnotherMike said...

And yes, the Intrade market move clearly disproves the hysterical paranoia of McCain fixing those markets in yesterday's piece on here, which of course was happily embraced by the hard left commentators.

Did you even read Nate's piece? He demonstrated a pattern to the buying of McCain Pres and Clinton Pres contracts. He never suggested this was McCain's campaign doing it.

shadowguidex said...

Charles M. Kozierok = Mule Rider circa July/August


And by "July/August" he means a couple days ago when he was ranting and raving and claimed he'd never come here again or post here again, and every post contained nasty language attacking people (unlike my nasty language which is just added for humor). Revisionist history doesn't work 2 days out, buddy.

Charles M. Kozierok said...

"Obama has a Presidential mentality and McCain has a fighter pilots mentality."

Qualification: a BAD fighter pilot's mentality.

Which explains why he was a bad fighter pilot, among other things.

realistxxx said...

Intersting poll on Marist about the economic crisis.

Q: Who do you think is more to blame for the economic crisis Dems or Reps.

54% say R and 25% say D

By party it is even more interesting:

79% of Dems blame the R's
22% of Reps blame the R's (WOW!)
56% of Indies blame the R's (Double WOW!)

http://www.maristpoll.marist.edu/usapolls/EC080924.htm

HowardDeanRocks said...

Give it up Pubs. Obama is leading in all the important states. Just because the national trend is coming back McCain's way doesn't mean anything. This country is tired of Bush. We're ready for a change. I am delirious with joy to see a true Progressive winning the White House this year. And at a time when capitalism has failed. We might finally get comprehensive medical coverage, social equality in marriage, and seize the Supreme Court back.

jack black said...

On this date in history, Spetember 25, 2004, in the Rasmussen Presidential Tracking Poll, President George Bush ledt John Kerry 49.4 to 47.6.

For final results, please see Presidential Inauguration, January 2005.

Per recent polls and financial news.

I can't quit laughing at all the left wing retards on this post. ODUMBO got a poll bounce when it was announced that we were on the verege of a great depression. Dem's lead on the economy by double digits.

The state polls are finally coming around to Odumbo, ergo the surge in NC, CO and other states. Although, I don't quite understatnd what is going on in NH and now Michigan.

Now, the national tracking Polls are beginning to settle back down to their normal strange behavior.

After the bailout is signed, the depression talk will fade and McCain will surge back inthe polls.

ODUMBO is still not rusted by the American People. He's down by over 20 points on who can best be Commandeer in Chief.

This is a hard number to make up and the debate on Friday will make or break one of the candidates.

ODUMBO tends to stutter a lot when his brain outraces his mouth and he can't figure out what he wants to say.

McCAin has a monotone, fatherly quality, with short answers that the American people seem to trust. There will be no teleprompter at the debate. I still remember ODUMBO'S tortured response to driver's licenses for illegal aliens.

Until the debate, everybody should just chill with the polls, as they are what they are.

By the way, I thought Palin was fantastic. She was gorgeaous and charming and spoke clearly and with commnad of the English language. The only fault I would give her is it looks as if she is somewhat defensive during hte interview.

No wonder, as she feels the interviews are nothing more than Ambush opportunities by alleged impartial journalists, who we all know will not vote for her.

I say keep up the good work Sarah Palin.

DCM in FL said...

Pollster just posted a bunch of new polls - all good news for Obama FWIW

Mason said...

I say keep up the good work Sarah Palin.

Sarah Who?

PorDem said...

The decision by McCain has fallen down party lines. Republicans think it's great, Dems think it's dumb and independents are still independents.

40 days out is not a lot of time to pull trick plays. IT was cheap, will be seen as cheap and will be seen as the fundamental shift in this campaign.

PorridgeGun said...

New Project West-Poll

Nevada

Obama 47
McCain 45