9.02.2008

Ohio Early Voting Update

Last week, we discussed the early voting windows in various battleground states, but we fell victim to the artificial distinction between "early voting" and "in-person absentee voting" and misstated the window. It's important enough to correct the record. Ohio early voting (in-person absentee) runs from September 30 through November 3.

The bottom line is that as of early 2006, Ohio residents can cast ballots early, whatever the label applied to that action is. The significance of October 6, a call to the Secretary of State's office confirmed, is that is Ohio's deadline for voter registration. From Sept 30-Oct 6, early voting is a one-stop shop for unregistered voters. Beginning October 7, no-excuse-needed, in-person absentee voting is ongoing right through November 3, but only for registered voters. None of the ballots are counted until the polls close on Election Day.

Additionally, depending on the Ohio county, there may be alternate sites for voting. In smaller counties, the board of elections office might suffice, but in the larger counties such as Franklin and Cuyahoga, alternate sites to accommodate large numbers of voters will be available. For Ohio voters, the thing to do is check the Secretary of State's website and click on your individiual county to get the location.

While we're on the subject of updates, the convention buzz on the rainy and overcast St. Paul streets is all Sarah Palin, all the time. The media is buzzing hard around the seeming failure to vet Palin, including news of her association with an Alaska secession movement. But questioning Palin means you're a chauvinist, says the McCain campaign. We'll have more coverage of Day Two of the Sorta Convention later. In other early voting news, the Virginia board of elections office finally got around to returning a phone call. And Barack Obama has updated his stump speech, with tough luck for Nate: "God bless America, and f--- you, Nate." No love among Chicagoans, apparently.

131 comments

Matthew said...

But the ballots still aren't counted until election night, correct?

And also, are the names of people who have voted released?

Because if so, there would be a way to poll people who have already voted. And that would give us some possibly solid information on Ohio.

judas_priest said...

The names have to be recorded on the official log, so they presumably are public records and subject to inspection. Using them for a poll, however, is of dubious value since they clearly do not form a random sample, even assuming the early voters are willing to participate (one of the advantages of voting early in Oregon is that once your name is recorded as having votes, the volume of political phone calls ir greatly reduced.)

The survey could ask about how they voted in 2004, but I believe that if every 2004 voters in Ohio who would report today they (s)he voted for Kerry actually had done so, he would now be president.
People's self-reporting is skewed by 1)a desire to have voted for the winner and 2)treating the question as a post-hoc referendum on the winner. My guess is that 2) prevails.

Darío said...

Ohio polls?.

ogre said...

Chauvinist?

How very French an accusation.

But more to the point, Mc/P are the initials of the GOP ticket, and (particularly given McCain's seamy history regarding the treatment of women), I think they own them.

If Palin's a grown-up, then she doesn't get to hide behind John, nor can she shelter behind a frilly pink hunting ensemble and whine that the boys are picking on her because she's a girl.

Wasilla proves she's a drunken-debt-and-spend Republican, leaving the tiny town with a huge debt and an ill-conceived (no pun intended) sports facility (for a town of 5000 people, at the time?). She was head of Stevens' PAC. She sought to censor the town's library (and to get the librarian removed for standing in her way).

And didn't have a damned clue about what the V.P. of the USA does.

And so on.

Sorry, that's one's record, and hauling it out is fair, fair, fair. It's not picking on the poor, sweet little girl (the one with the reputation for being a very talented political backstabber in AK--watch the sweet thing...).

Matthew said...

Oh come on, where are the geeks that want to talk about what demographic groups are more likely to use early voting?

Or does everyone want to talk about what Sarah Palin's daughter's child's father's myspace page has on it?

AnotherMike said...

Can Ohio college students who are from out-of-state register and vote in Ohio?

x0lani said...

LOL, I saw that Onion article and thought the same thing!

Well according to the Onion, Obama and Mule Rider are of the same mind... ;)

Matthew said...

judas_priest:

And also, less political mailings...although, being the crazy person I am, I decided that all the brochures from people running from city council should be saved for posterity.
I agree that a poll of voters who have already voted would not be very accurate. It would just be more information to throw into the vortex of uncertainty that is Ohio.

Ogre: I totally agree, I wish people would focus more on her record...there is enough to question there without digging into her personal life.

Anothermike: As far as I know, it is very easy to declare yourself a resident of any United State you want, as long as you are not doing it for clearly fraudulent purposes.

x0lani said...

Matthew,
When Sean posts we don't have to be serious. He's like the good cop. Or comic relief. Or maybe Pinky.
No offense, Sean. :)

Mule Rider said...

x0lani,

I read that Onion article!

Brian said...

AnotherMike said...

Can Ohio college students who are from out-of-state register and vote in Ohio?


Yes. I was a college student in Ohio in 2004, and there was a voter registration drive on my campus for out-of-state students to re-register in Ohio.

Then all the students voting in a podunk district broke the polls and finished around 3am. Wheee.

Joe said...

i think the focus for ohio's early voting has to be on new voters, which is to say those who are currently unregistered. the sept. 30-oct. 6 week is a huge opportunity to get these people registered and to vote in one swoop - if obama's ground game can get young people and minorities to do this en masse that week, that could create an uneven playing field going into nov. 4.

however, the flip side is that the two-phase system - one-stop registration and voting for a week, then early voting but NO REGISTRATION ALLOWED after october 6, creates the potential for confusion, with people thinking they can register later and then ending up unable to vote at all.

a challenge for the obama campaign, but a big potential payoff if they can execute.

Matthew said...

x0lani

As long as we are not being serious, I want to start a rumor about Sarah Palin:

That she managed to balance the budget when she was on the PTA by holding a bake sale with her extra special secret recipe pumpkin pie!

Jonker said...

Who are the campaigns going to focus on for that voting window? The homeless might be a good option. I like the idea of registration and voting at the same time but I admit it is a big experiement, and might lead to some fraud. Good luck Ohio!

Nicholas said...

Shameless rumor creation:

Palin was picked as VP as a bribe after her affair with McCain and her threatening to go public.

Joe said...

jonker:

homeless people? wow - that's really pushing GOTV to its limits. how would they register? don't you need an address?

i was thinking college students and african-americans.

Jonker said...

Homeless can register here in Colorado. Address is the shelter or a church they attend. And anyone can have bad luck and become homeless.

markymark said...

Am I alone in thinking that it kind of undercuts the 'being Governor is a big job' thing when you mention being in charge of the Alaska National Guard?

And Alaska maybe the biggest state in the Union, but it has the 47th largest economy, and the 47th largest population.

x0lani said...

Matthew: Ummm... I think that's not a rumor. With a little bit of research, it will probably turn out to be true as well.

Mule Rider: You resemble that Onion article!

mikewpbfl said...

Game changer.

NEWSWEEK JUST OUT ISSUE.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/156472

NEWSWEEK cover with McCain/Palin.

Newsweek publish date Aug. 29th.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/156472

The article proves that Palin was vetted and throughly.

It runs three pages. The only non-mention is her daughters pregnancy.

I said in the prior that you overplayed your hand.

Heres the link again...

http://www.newsweek.com/id/156472

eve said...

"Can Ohio college students who are from out-of-state register and vote in Ohio?"

yes
qualify to register:
3. You will be a resident of Ohio for at least 30 days immediately before the election in which you want to vote;

May a college student register and vote from his or her school address in Ohio?

Yes, a student may vote using his or her Ohio school residence address.

http://www.sos.state.oh.us/SOS/elections/voterInformation/regToVote.aspx

Obama will benefit from the college vote and more so now that they have the early voting.

dominoid73 said...

I guess I miss the game-changing aspect of the Newsweek article.

mikewpbfl said...

read it.

mikewpbfl said...

http://www.newsweek.com/id/156472

Matthew said...

Nicholas:

The point of the Sarah Palin rumor game is to have fun, not to hurt.

For example, did you know that Sarah Palin tried to plant the northernmost palm tree in the world in the Wasili town square, but that it died?

RWD said...

"It runs three pages."

Wow, 3 whole pages. In Newsweek. That is a game changer.

dominoid73 said...

Okay. I read it again. So the game changer is McCain knew she was horrible for the position and appointed her anyway? There are at least 6 other vetting issues not in the article besides the pregnancy.

eve said...

mikewp:

You really think 3 pages by a reporter is vetting a candidate?

x0lani said...

mikewpbfl: I don't see it either, and I try to be neutral. It's Newsweek's standard fluff piece. In fact, on the same page it has a link to Why Sarah Palin Is Likely to Belly-Flop

Penderyn said...

Wow! Newsweek?
much ado about nothing!

IMO the Comment article is pretty damning for McCain and his judgment!

eve said...

I read it.

Still can understand why Obama's poll numbers are up and McCain's are down.

She is veep nominee. She is getting lots of media and will continue to at least for awhile.

Unlikely she will really change the game either way. McCain is the candidate. He is losing and will continue to lose. He has a poorly organized campaign.

He knows he is losing and plunked Palin out of the bag to try for a big buzz. He got the buzz. But for now she is hurting and not helping.

DarienCrow said...

I think we all need a good laugh.
For the simple fact that I am still laughing at this post I feel we all need to read it again.

Mule Rider said...

Just asking a question that's been in my head out loud here. Anybody feel free to chime in. Has Rhys ever made an intelligent post? All I've ever seen are comments along the lines of, "Damn stupid fucking Republithugs! Spin and lies. McSame is a tool and an old bigot! Republicans are all racist, gay-hating scum. Lying right wing trolls always come on and spread stupid bullshit! Fuck them. Suck me off. I hate the world! I hate conservatives. Karl Rove is a fucker!"

Nicholas said...

That Newsweek article is only a few days old, but it already seems very, very dated.

"she has gone to war on pork-barrel projects"

"The landscape is littered with the bodies of those who crossed Sarah." (this is supposed to a positive)

Joe said...

mikewpbfl,

how is that a "game-changer"? it does NOT prove that palin was "vetted thoroughly." it mentions troopergate, which has been pretty public knowledge for some time now. it (briefly) mentions her flip-flop on the bridge to nowhere.

it does NOT mention the recent reports that she tried to burn books from the public library, and threatened to have the librarian fired for resisting. nor the other public officials she apparently fired simply for supporting her rival in an election.

most importantly, it does NOT mention the alaskan independence party.

nice try; the newsweek article is a nice fluff piece, but it doesn't nearly show that she was properly vetted. and the fact that mccain's lawyers are in alaska vetting her NOW don't add strength to your case.

mikewpbfl said...

The games changer is that article proves that the McCain campaign knew through vetting the possible problems facing her.

Pub. Date Aug 29th. Means went to print before any of the bullshit stories hit on Monday.

Anything of real interest is in there.

It was out in the public domain or soon to be after the debut Dayton rally.

The far left bloggers went nuts over pregnancy rumours. Trigg not Palins.

Yet commmon knowlwdge...Wasilla was that this was circulating by her enemies.

The real "issue" Bristols pregnancy in the MSM yesterday and today. Has the open secret ascpect to it.

The left is about to have the "not vetted" agrument drop like a lead ballon.

Its back to experience, her acceptance speech and the VP debate.

The far left just got punked and handed Obama the fruits of their labor.

Link again

http://www.newsweek.com/id/156472


Conclusion all the silly shit the far laft is throwing as of right now is going to come right back to them like a damn boomerrang.

And the person that will be hit is Obama.

Thank you to everyone at the Daily Kos.

All this shit is done evening news cycle tomorrow.

Mule Rider said...

DarienCrow,

Maybe over the top, but I think there is some truth to that...

Of course, some will say about the same of me and that my posts are almost exclusively, "Liberals are garbage! Assclowns!" With little substance. Oh well. I'll still sleep tonight.

PorridgeGun said...

LOL @ mikewpbfl




Moron.

Joe said...

ugh. in my last post, that last "don't" = "doesn't." i judge me when i use poor grammar.

thezzyzx said...

It missed the AIP, the fact that she left her hometown tens of millions of dollars in debt, that she campaigned on building the bridge to nowhere, that she ran a 527 for Ted Stevens, the library book banning... Need I go on?

RWD said...

Yep, this 3 pager in Newsweek is absolute proof of everything Mike is saying. Well done. When this article gets out, the polls will shift completely and McCain will win an 80-20 landslide. Newsweek is that influential.

mikewpbfl said...

Just wait... watch spin in action.

dominoid73 said...

"i judge me when i use poor grammar."

But apparently not capitalization!

Just having fun. I hate typos/grammar issues in my posts too.

mikewpbfl said...

Latest AIP spin release.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080902/ap_on_el_pr/cvn_palin_politics

mikewpbfl said...

Thompson to "rip apart smear campaign."

http://www.weeklystandard.com/weblogs/TWSFP/2008/09/thompson_speech_hits_media_on.asp

Should be an interesting speech.

JC said...

The Obama operative running the Ohio Field Campaign is Jeremy Bird, the architect behind Obama's landslide in South Carolina -- after Obama's surprise win in Iowa, SC probably would have been a win regardless, but everyone I know in politics credits Obama's field team with the massive margin.

This does not bode well for McCain. Early One-Stop Voting is all about the ground game... I have a hunch Bird is planning a shock and awe offensive on the ground in Ohio, and McCain's field operation is looking more and more like a bunch of sectarian freedom fighters with 60s-era Soviet rifles and a few shoulder-fired missles. God be with them.

With such a huge early voting window, I'd say Obama's ground game gives him an unseen 2 or 3 point advantage. If this thing is close in Ohio, I'd put my money on Obama dominating on the ground.

GaMeS said...

[[ Sorry to bring in a comment from another thread, but I wanted it to be read by the person in question. :) ]]



Virginia Conservative said...

He can still win, it is just been made much more difficult unnecessarily.

His only hope is to use Palin as a bone thrown to the base while he himself moves to the center.



First, let me say that I have been very pleased your commentary of late; no one asks that we all agree, but things are so much nicer when both sides provide realistic analysis and reasoned argument. Kudos. :)

Second, I think you're correct: McCain would have to use Palin as an anchor to "guard the right flank," as it were, while rushing to the center. I can't really see another likely path at this point, and because of that I think it would take a significant exogenous factor to turn things back in their favor.


You also mentioned being angry with McCain about the choice -- believe it or not, many of us on the LEFT are angry about it, too:

(1) It lowers the bar of the dialog on the entire process. Policy and issues go right out the window when everyone starts talking about character and judgment (including experience, which is supposed to demonstrate good judgment). Granted, this was already a big topic, but this VP choice just accelerated the talk a LOT.

(2) Frankly, I wish he would have stood up to the extreme right wing that has hijacked the Republican Party from who I think of as the real conservatives (which, at one time, includes people like McCain). I really would prefer a national political dialog wherein both sides can talk openly and debate policy without deciding that the other side is an "enemy" rather than a fellow American.

(3) Finally, I think this will so severely damage his chances that it will diminish the luster on Obama's (likely) victory.

If I can make a shallow sports analogy, imagine watching the Super Bowl, and one team is trailing by a touchdown at the beginning of the fourth. It's 4th and 20 on their own 10 yard line ... and they go for it instead of punting.

The gamble doesn't pay off, and the other team easily takes a two-touchdown lead; now the trailing team is so far behind they're forced to pass on every down, making defense that much easier. The once close game becomes a total rout because of one boneheaded decision.

Now, for the fans of that losing team, how many will openly accept that the other team is the better team and earned the championship? Some, to be sure -- they'll recognize that they were outplayed and outcoached for the entire game, and the 4th-and-long attempt was just one more example of it.

But how many will instead focus on that one critical failure, arguing for the next year that they "should have won." One colossal failure completely overshadows all the little ones throughout the game, and they never see the other team as having "really" won. At most, they pick a scapegoat (whoever decided not to punt) rather that examine their team's actual shortcomings.

That's what McCain ultimately did. By doing something so amazingly boneheaded, he diminished the outcome of the whole election. It minimizes the chances that the Republican Party will see the ideological corner the extreme right has painted them into (see #2), making the odds of having a productive national dialog over the next four years that much lower.

And that doesn't help anyone, no matter which side you're on.

Joe said...

from the yahoo article:

" "Supporters of Barack Obama are engaged in an unfortunate and nasty smear campaign," McCain spokesman Brian Rogers said, specifically citing issues related to Palin's politics. "

i mean, i am absolutely GAGGING on the hypocrisy here.

isn't this the same campaign that ran negative ads about obama right after michael phelps set those world records? it's the same campaign, right?

mccain and the RNC have run ads about ayers, ads falsely attacking obama's tax plan, saying he isn't ready to lead, on and on and on. that they're now trying to play the victim is mind-boggling.

Virginia Conservative said...

She was NOT a member of the AIP.

Penderyn said...

Latest AIP spin release.

This just shows that there IS a connection between the Palins and the AIP (her husband was a registered member was she a fellow-traveler?). Take this together with the AIP talk of "infiltrating" and her other "links" with AIP/Republican figures and the whole matter becomes something that SHOULD give rise for concern.

Virginia Conservative said...

I thought families are "off limits"?

mikewpbfl said...

VA Con.

See what I mean by spin.

They over did it.

By Friday nothing short of a dead body in Palins yrad will stick.

Penderyn said...

I am NOT attacking her husband, we all have a right to support whichever party we think is best for the country - good luck to him. The AIP say they were both probably members. We now know that at least part of that is correct. All that remains is to clarify (if at all possible)is her role. At best, she kept dubious political company in the past.

Joe said...

virginia conservative,

1. on strictly family/personal issues like bristol's pregnancy, yes. but would william ayers be a bigger deal to you if he were obama's brother?

2. the current vice-chair (or whatever the title is) of the AIP said (in a video available on youtube) that sarah palin was an AIP member. the current chair, who was then the clerk, said sarah palin and her husband were both members and attended the AIP convention in 1994. sarah palin recorded a video greeting for the AIP in 2008 (also on youtube).

given the nature of the AIP, and how little we all know about sarah palin right now, i think it's 100% fair game - beyond fair game, it's absolutely important to our country - to figure out exactly what sarah palin's connection to the AIP is and has been. saying "a yahoo.com article says it's just her husband, and families are off limits" is inadequate when, for example, an ABC.com piece already had the head of the AIP saying sarah palin was a member.

Eric said...

Something important to note. Governor Palin is the most right wing social conservative that has probably ever been on a ticket. In many ways this helps the ticket. Social Conservatives who don't love McCain are excited. They'll get out the vote and give lots of money, but... this country is probably about 60% Pro-Choice and 40% Pro-Life. The reason the GOP uses it as a wedge issue is because so many of that 40% is so passionate about it, whereas a chunk of the 60% Pro-Choice rarely make it a huge issue, especially since Roe V Wade is on the side of choice right now. Anyone this ultra-conservative on this issue will really scare pro-choice folks. There's a reason politicians like Reagan present his pro-life stance without being hard-edged about it, whereas folks like PAt Buchanan and Pat Robertson could never have won a national election. She can't dance around it, because it's te main reason the GOP feels she's a strong addition. It will be a deal-breaker for McCain to ever try to get more total votes than Obama in a national general election. That's my two cents anyway.

TorrentPrime said...

Shorter* mikewpbfl:
The fact that Newsweek wrote an article a few days ago without knowing what we know now proves we know nothing, now.

*I'm aware of some internet traditions.

DarienCrow said...

I would like to know exactly what is wrong with the AIP?

Sounds to me to be a party of strict constitutionalists that have an alligiance to their state above all.

Alaska has a good reason to be pissed off. They agreed to be a state on condition that they would be able to drill their oil and other resourses to support the U.S.

They have never been able to do this. So you think they should just shut up and be good Americans?

Tomas said...

I just read that line carefully... Heaven FORBID Democratic attack dogs focus on Palin's past *political decisions*? Is McCain's staff seriously objecting to issues talk?

Wind Grieved Ghost said...

My insticts tell me that as more people become hip to the Zogby poll, the more accurate the numbers will become, currently it has Obama only up by 2.

RWD said...

"I would like to know exactly what is wrong with the AIP?"

Most Americans do not support the idea of Alaska, or any other state, seceeding from the Union.

thezzyzx said...

If the AIP says that Palin was a member and attended their convention and she says that she didn't, the fact that her husband turns out to be a registered member is circumstantial evidence at least in favor of the AIP's claim.

It also turns out that she was 20% owner of a car wash (and her husband owned another 20%) that was dissolved by the AK government because they couldn't be bothered to fill out paperwork and pay fees.

TorrentPrime said...

Agree, Eric. The general issue of life v. choice (dancing around the word choice, I am) is hard enough, but many people get a lot less wishy-washy when it comes to rape and incest. Even Christians and Catholics may get less pro-life if they get shown an ad that asks, "If your 13-year-old daughter was raped and impregnated, Gov. Palin wants to force her to bear the child," or some other suitably bombastic language.

Joe said...

dariencrow,

if you would like to state that there would be nothing wrong with sarah palin being a former member of an alaskan political party whose stated goal is and was to have alaska secede from the union, i say you go for it. hell, if you want to start fundraising for a national ad campaign on that, i might max out to you.

Joshua said...

@Jc: Just to give a little support to you're views on Ohio, I can attest to their validity as a resident. I am in Akron, Ohio (a university town) and Obamaphiles like myself are EVERYWHERE. For a couple weeks straight now we've had people all over town doing voter reg. Now I realize my view is a bit skewed since this is a like 10-1 Dem County, but I also hang out in a couple other counties, and trust me there are "splinter groups" simply everywhere with high visibility.
I have observed exactly 4 McCain signs this entire election cycle!
I have to agree, Obama's vastly superior ground game, I have long held, gives him a significant and meaningful hidden advantage.

moondancer said...

McPOWs goons are getting savage. Canceling a King interview with Krusty to punish CNN for good journalism? Thats not a McCain we can believe in. Banned KO too.

DarienCrow said...

LOL!

Oh my god you have to be kidding!

If this country takes your road to socialism I will be the first to take up arms against your communist ass.

You can all moved toCalifornia. You can have it but keep your Stalin/Mao/Castro plan away from my country.

Penderyn said...

Just step back a moment -

all this discussion is a direct result of McCain's disasterous choice of VP. HE opened this can of wurms, his impulsive, short-sighted decision has opened up the Republicans to an unprecedated series of attacks and can only lead to serious doubts about his fitness to be commander in chief with his finger on the button ...

Joe said...

moondancer,

king and james carville teamed up on michelle bachman pretty hard last night.

(that's what SHE said)

x0lani said...

The Palin rumors do seem a bit similar to the Obama rumors. They all seem a bit desperate and apocalyptic.

Palin's an Alaskan secessionist. Obama's a radical muslim. Palin's daughter is a baby factory. Obama's wife is a black panther.

A lot of this stuff wouldn't even matter if people just focused on their policies and voting records...

thezzyzx said...

"The Palin rumors do seem a bit similar to the Obama rumors. They all seem a bit desperate and apocalyptic.

Palin's an Alaskan secessionist. Obama's a radical muslim. Palin's daughter is a baby factory. Obama's wife is a black panther."

The difference though is that Palin's husband was a member of the party, members of the AIP claim that she was too, and she addressed the party convention for no obvious reason in 2008.

Mule Rider said...

thezzyzx,

Yeah, no obvious reason other than being "GOVERNOR OF THE STATE"...and being asked to address the convention after the party's chairperson had just died.

No, no reason at all.

Joe said...

x0lani,

the rumors about palin's daughter and trig: not true, obviously. they were also debunked within the first weekend of sarah palin being added to the candidacy.

stuff like that just gets floated because we don't know anything about the candidates at the beginning. i'm for obama, and in his first few weeks on the national stage, i was asking, "well, IS he a muslim?" it wouldn't have mattered to me, but i just didn't know.

as it turns out, of the four rumors you cite, three (palin's daughter = baby factory, obama = radical muslim, obama's wife = black panther) have been thoroughly debunked.

one, regarding sarah palin's former membership in the AIP and whether she does or did have any sympathy for a secessionist movement, may OR MAY NOT be true. the point is that we don't know, and we deserve to know.

Mule Rider said...

I misspoke. She addressed the convention in 2008 because of her duties. She attended in 1994 the year after the party's founder died.

The AIP is the 3rd largest party in Alaska, people. It's not unusual for the governor to have to deal with people so immersed in the state's politics. Get over yourselves.

PorridgeGun said...

New Obama Ad For The RNC

http://www.jedreport.com/2008/09/new-obama-ad-for-the-rnc.html



Todd Palin was (also) a member Of Pro-Secessionist AIP

http://www.jedreport.com/2008/09/todd-palin-was-member-of-pro-s.html

Joshua said...

x0lani said...

The Palin rumors do seem a bit similar to the Obama rumors. They all seem a bit desperate and apocalyptic.

I beg to differ. Whereas the Obama BS was completely unfounded, based in bigotry, and had no policy relevance, the Palin talk is the opossite. Pretty much everything being talked about is grounded in some amount of truth, and directly relate to her ability to lead.
1. TrooperGate: Shows she would employ the same Bush/Cheney abuses of power.
2. Baby stories: I have recieved much criticism for stating that these are valid stories. In my view she either a.) Stops taking care of her 5 month old special needs child and helping her daughter with her new child to take the VP job, which I see as being frankley a shitty thing to do. or b.) she will be in office but taking care of the children, thus an ineffective leader.

Tito said...

I thought the point of the RNC was gonna be like the DNC - charge up the base, fine tune the message, woo independents.

The way this week is shaping up so far for the RNC, this is like a funeral for their ticket. I was looking forward to a close race for the next two months. McCain's gonna need some political Viagra if he even wants to have hopes of keeping it close.

x0lani said...

thezzyzx:
There's always some grain of truth to these rumors. According the AP article, secession is not officially on the party platform, but is a view held by some of it's members.

Is Palin really a secessionist? It doesn't seem very likely. She definitely has a record of diverting funds to her constituency. She advocated the diversion of the oil money to local coffers. But that doesn't make her an actual secessionist.

thezzyzx said...

The governor has a duty to address all parties' conventions and tell them to, "Keep up the good work?" Did she address the Democratic convention too?

Virginia Conservative said...

Looks like Fred Thompson will defend her tonight and take the fight back to Barack Obama.

Joe said...

x0lani,

just for the record, this is the "Goal" from the AIP website:

"The Alaskan Independence Party's goal is the vote we were entitled to in 1958, one choice from among the following four alternatives:

Remain a Territory.
Become a separate and Independent Nation.
Accept Commonwealth status.
Become a State.

The call for this vote is in furtherance of the dream of the Alaskan Independence Party's founding father, Joe Vogler, that Alaskans achieve independence under a minimal government, fully responsive to the people, and promoting a peaceful and lawful means of resolving differences."

Darío said...

DarienCrow, please relax.
Polarization destroys countries.
In this country the respect to the Constitution is the first and we haven´t a Socialist Constitution.
Some governments are big governments others small governments but never socialists or communist governments.

PorridgeGun said...

What, is Hollyweird Fred Pro-Secessionist, too?

Penderyn said...

"Looks like Fred Thompson will defend her tonight and take the fight back to Barack Obama"

Any other choice of VP wouldn't NEED defending! Thanks John, shot yourself in both feet!

Eric said...

Will Fred speak from 10-11 Central on the major networks or before? He's got great BS, but this will be the only time he'll get a microphone where anyone will be paying attention. If he's on before 10 EST, his speech won't make much a difference. He won a couple of the debates in the primares. He just never really wanted to be President.

thezzyzx said...

Wasn't Fred Thompson the guy who the base loved but couldn't appeal to anyone outside of it? Talk about preaching to the converted...

Joe said...

eric,

i think i saw earlier that the prime-time speakers will be fred and lieberman. bush, via satellite, will be at 9:30, outside prime time.

thezzyzx said...

And Eric - he will be on on primetime as I understand it.

Despite my comment above, I am worried. Just because things are going well doesn't mean that they will continue to go well. However, if the main focus of the RNC is whether Palin was a good choice or not, that makes it much harder to get a bounce.

Penderyn said...

"Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, the Republican vice-presidential nominee who revealed Monday that her 17-year-old daughter is pregnant, earlier this year used her line-item veto to slash funding for a state program benefiting teen mothers in need of a place to live"

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/09/02/palin_slashed_funding_to_help.html

Defend that!!

x0lani said...

For the record, Hussein is an Islamic name. The rumor twists it into meaning that Obama is therefore Muslim. Sarah is a Hebrew name, but that doesn't mean she's Jewish.

Also for the record, it's ridiculous that Islam is perceived as inherently anti-American. I've been to several predominately Islamic countries and been treated very respectfully and met many kind people.

Eric said...

If he's on before 10 EST, that's all who will be paying attention. Mark Warner spoke before then and wasn't on the major networks. If I were the GOP, I'd put him on in the 10-11 hour, before or after GWB. He will likely give the best speech at that whole convention as far as converting people. Good actor, great BS. I'd bet his speech will be more useful than McCain or Palin or Giuliani or Lieberman. About the only charisma they'll come up with, but he might help them. We'll see.

PorridgeGun said...

Believe it or not, the FReeptards are stil bemoaning the fact that Fred Thompson and Duncan Hunter didn't get the nomination.

I am so glad these dipshits have a vote in this election.

Brad said...

Mule - lying in three threads. And since when does a sitting governor of one party open the convention of a competing party? PArticualry a poor stepchild. Where was Palewnty opening that rally for Ron Paul?

You are an idiot...I thought you were leaving the board.

KS. said...

I really can't believe that the only remaining Republicans not members of the Bush administration who are able to address the nation at this convention are, quite literally, complete losers. Thompson? Guiliani? What the hell?

VC, could you put some positive spin on these guys as headliners? It's like nobody is even bothering to spin this as anything other than pathetic.

Palin is seriously, seriously sucking up the oxygen in and around the Xcel Center...

Brad said...

Obama has lost every bounce all season long, both against Clinton and McCan't. I am still worried, very worried. People believe these republican lies!!!!!

Brad said...

Only one speech matters, PAlin's. That willl get McCain back to dwon 3, if it sucks McCain is down 8. McCain's speech is unlikely to matter much, I bet it gets terrible ratings.

Joe said...

http://blogs.abcnews.com/liveblogging/2008/09/how-palin-is-pl.html

ouch. et tu, us weekly?

Joe said...

i mean, OUCH.

David said...

Joshua,

I think the Palin selection is a joke, and a terrible reflection on John McCain's judgment and leadership. The media scrutiny on her is justified, and the stories that have surfaced are directly relevant to her qualifications.

But the notion that Palin can't be Vice President and take care of a Down Syndrome child is downright sexist. Families, particularly families of means, figure out how to balance work and family. Couldn't her husband Todd become the primary caretaker? Couldn't they hire a nanny/nurse to assist?

Let's judge her on her qualifications or lack thereof, not on our preconceived notions of gender roles.

Brad said...

US weekly and the National Enquirer will be very bad for McCAin/Palin. Lots of folks who do not watch the speeches, and are not interested in politics will see these at the grocery store. Really bad for McCan't.

KS. said...

Also, does anyone know why Arnold cancelled? "Officially," I mean?

Mule Rider said...

Brad,

You are the LIAR! That's what the source said. It was part of her "duties as Governor."

For you to deny this makes you the worst kind of liberal trash. I'm so fucking tired of typing it.

Get YOUR HEAD OUT OF YOUR ASS!!

Joe said...

agree with david re: palin's ability to take care of a special needs child, support her daughter, and be veep. and, credit where credit's due, a fair number of progressives have been - wrongly - raising this as an issue over the past few days. it's deeply disappointing to me.

there are an awful lot of reasons sarah palin should not be the next vice president. with more coming by the day. let's not make this about her work/life balance.

x0lani said...

Joe:
It does say that. But it doesn't say that their goal is to secede. If I'm reading it correctly, it's saying that their goal is to vote for one of those four options - and secession is one of them.

Otherwise, it looks similar to the Libertarian platform...

Virginia Conservative said...

They didn't move Alaska to the front of the convention hall. WTF?

humanist said...

There is one serious point in all of this, which is the VP choices did reflect the candidates' basic temperaments: eager for action to the point of being impulsive, in the case of McCain; cautious to the point of being boring, in the case of Obama. The interesting thing is that the image largely clashes with this reality: Obama, mostly because of his color, is considered to be an out-of-the-box type of politician, while McCain, through his age and largely for not being Obama, is considered to have more gravitas. The hope is that the reality of the VP selections would help to bring images closer to reality.

Brad said...

Arnold officially cancelled to deal with the budget in Sacramento.

Joe said...

x0lani,

1. you're correct - the goal is for the vote, and secession is only one of the options. another option is to become a territory - so, basically what alaska was before the vote for statehood. i presume most AIP members are not going to be of the belief that it's a good thing to remain a state, right? otherwise why fight so hard for the vote?

i honestly don't know what the practical, real-world differences are between a state and a commonwealth. anyone here (probably) know more than me?

2. the AIP further states that the purpose of getting this vote is to further the dream of its founder, joe vogler. vogler was a well-known secessionist. his dream wasn't a commonwealth.

Brad said...

Agree, it is her family she can treat it how she wants.

BUT the rest of this crap is fair game, including abstinence education

ncschoolteacher said...

Just want to say hi to the 538 crowd. Long time reader, first time poster. Palin is a typical Republican: Implements a failed policy (abstinence only sex education), covers it up (literally had the pregnant daughter holding the newborn in front of the baby bump), instead of assessing the situation they are staying the course (making the poor kids get married) “That is not change that is more of the same.”

Joshua said...

David and Joe: While I can understand it is easy for you to assume my comments were sexist, I assure you I would say the same where Palin a man. I simply feel that this is not a time in a persons life they should accept something this important. And while wealthy families do indeed find it easy to hire nannies and the like, that is by no means a good solution.
I am not in any way claiming that the children aspect is the best or most important issue with Palin, I simply wished to express that I feel it is a valid one.
Trust me I'm far more concerned with Pain being a Wing Nut Jesus Freak who tries to burn books and uses political power for her own personal agenda.

Eric said...

Tom Delay (on MSNBC right now) is the best example of why the GOP lost this country over the last 6 years. He was almost a pre-cursor to Cheney-Bush. What a joke. I hope they keep sending him out there.

Virginia Conservative said...

Fuck Tom Delay.

eponymous said...

I must echo VACon's sentiment.


In other news, who's ready for George W. Bush's big speech tonight?

Virginia Conservative said...

He should have come in person, in prime time and defend his record as President.

Virginia Conservative said...

Also it would have helped if he would talk about all the disagreements he has had with McCain and how many times they were on the opposite side of issues.

eponymous said...

Honestly, if I was John McCain I would say: "Look George, you're a good guy, but can't you make an excuse to run off somewhere? Like, disaster relief or something? The last thing I need is you and your 35% approval ratings at my convention"

But I suppose that would be seen as a conspicuous absence.


They didn't put him in a primetime spot anyways so it's doubtful the networks will cover it much.

Matthew said...

VCon:

I said the main legitimate reason to doubt Sarah Palin was the AIP stuff. If, as the case seems to be, she was just someone who associated with them, it shouldn't be brought up as that important. Ever her husband being a member is not that important.

So now the question is just her lack of experience. Which, of course, isn't always a deal breaker, but in this case it seems like it is.

xyz said...

Now MSNBC is posting about Palin's church video which has created some controversy http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/09/02/1327574.aspx#comments
This is not going to play well at all with moderate suburban voters in Detroit & Denver suburbs. It will be more damaging then any other controversies because here the words are coming out of Palin's own mouth not actions of a daughter, a crazy pastor or political affiliation of the husband. It will be interesting to see if the rest of MSM picks up this story.

On the positive side, it is lucky for McCain & Palin that all these issues are popping out at the same time so media is having a hard time following all of them closely.

xyz said...

Virginia Conservative said...

He should have come in person, in prime time and defend his record as President.

Are you serious? Do you even want McCain to win? I don't understand you republicans, you had a golden opportunity to avoid both bush and cheney but today morning I wake up to see that Bush is back on the convention agenda. WTF? This is so incredibly stupid. Bush coming to the convention in person is going to solve nothing except give dems some more footage for Bush-McCain ads.

Virginia Conservative said...

Do Obama supporters REALLY want to be bringing up church videos? Not a smart move, folks.

mikewpbfl said...

Tenn Pregnancy Gate spin:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2008/09/01/politics/p091657D38.DTL

Scroll down to where the fathers, mother says. "they were planning to wed, this is an added blessing."

If Bristol was 18 and not 17 this wouldnt be an issue at all.

Notice too that the father is at the convention tonight, yet Palin is reported not to be.

Pure speculation on my apart follows. Call it political theatre.

End of prime time coverage.

Palin walks on stage followed by Bristol and Levi. He gets down on one knee... proposes house goes wild.

Palins acceptance speech is tomorrow.

All these small issues brought up in blogs are addressed.

See you at the debates.

Election day comes dow to the same counties that determined 2000 and 2004.

FastMovingCloud said...

"Can Ohio college students who are from out-of-state register and vote in Ohio?"

I'm here in Ohio and, while I don't work for the board of elections, I'm fairly sure they can register if they can show proof they have been a resident for six months.

HBar said...

"i honestly don't know what the practical, real-world differences are between a state and a commonwealth. anyone here (probably) know more than me?"

There isn't one. My guess is that they only want to include it to split the statehood supporters.

GaMeS said...

BTW, this insistence that the Alaskan Independence Party does not have secessionist goals is just a little absurd. Anyone with even the most basic reading comprehension can see what they're saying (comments added; I use bold to highlight particular things, but I omit none of their text):

~~~~~~~~~
ALASKA FIRST!
~~~~~~~~~

It's rhetoric, but if you're putting Alaska first, then by necessity you aren't putting country first. Only one of these can be your first priority, and the President and Vice President both swear to preserve and defend the Constitution of the United States against enemies foreign and domestic.

And the Constitution doesn't allow for a state to choose secession. That is most assuredly NOT "Country First."

(More on this below.)

~~~~~~~~~
Until we as Alaskans receive our Ultimate Goal, the AIP will continue to strive to make Alaska a better place to live with less government interference in our everyday lives.
~~~~~~~~~

Isn't the use of capitalization there a little odd? Kind of like the difference between final solution and Final Solution.

... I'm sure it's just a question of style, but someone could reasonably interpret that as being a code phrase.

~~~~~~~~~
The Alaskan Independence Party's goal is the vote we were entitled to in 1958, one choice from among the following four alternatives:

1) Remain a Territory.
2) Become a separate and Independent Nation.
3) Accept Commonwealth status.
4) Become a State.

~~~~~~~~~

This is an interesting complaint, but it shows a fundamental misunderstanding about the voting process.

Let's say you and your family want to have dinner and you normally cook at home, but you want to consider the alternatives of going out to a restaurant, picking up fast food, or having a pizza delivered.

Now, one option would be to sit down the family and describe each of the four options and ask each member to vote for one of them (or to rank-order their preferences), and this is perfectly valid. It would also take a LOT more time than a simple yea-or-nay response to each option, offered sequentially.

But it is just as valid to have a series of up-down votes. "Do you want pizza?" "Do you want fast food?" "Do you want to go out?" If you get a majority yes on any one of them, you can in all fairness stop immediately. If you get a no on all of them, you keep the default (in this case, "Cook at home").

Can this be manipulated to cause particular results? Absolutely -- it's called the "power of agenda" and it's why committee chairs are so influential. But this doesn't make it any less fair -- you're all still voting, after all.

For example, imagine that no single choice has a majority BUT a majority do not want to cook at home. If you control the sequence of votes, you can lead the voting to your preferred outcome (eating out, in this case). You vote first for pizza; no majority. You next vote for fast food; still no majority. You finally vote for going out; now, since a majority do NOT want to eat at home, they vote in favor of eating out.

You get your desired outcome, and everyone else avoids an outcome they didn't want. Not bad, really. Could it be better? Sure ... but it's BIG stretch to act like this is inherently undemocratic. It's just the way voting works, and it breaks down complex issues into up-down votes.

The same logic applies to this demand for a four-way vote by the AIP -- it's not necessary to qualify as being fair and providing for self-determination. If the first vote is "statehood vs. stay territory," and statehood wins a majority, it is perfectly fair to accept that result as democratic and representative. (If the people had really wanted something other than statehood, they could have voted "no" and stayed a territory; later, they could have organized a different bid for commonwealth or independence or whatever.)

Ultimately, since there was a fair democratic vote for statehood, the various UN resolutions aren't violated and therefore there is no basis in the US Constitution for their desire to secede.

Conclusion: Their demands are unconstitutional and therefore incompatible with the oath of office for the President and Vice President.

~~~~~~~~~
The call for this vote is in furtherance of the dream of the Alaskan Independence Party's founding father, Joe Vogler, which was for Alaskans to achieve independence under a minimal government, fully responsive to the people, promoting a peaceful and lawful means of resolving differences.
~~~~~~~~~

Let's look at that again, this time omitting an unnecessary adverbial clause and a trailing prepositional phrase, doing so without changing the subject and predicate of the sentence:

"The call for this vote is in furtherance of the dream ... for Alaskans to achieve independence..."

Removing ellipses for clarity (again, the sentence's meaning does not change one bit):

"The call for this vote is in furtherance of the dream for Alaskans to achieve independence."

This is what that sentence says and means.

So ...

What part of that statement tells you it's not a secessionist platform?





The paper-thin defense that "some members are in favor of independence and others aren't" is meaningless -- it's like saying the Democratic Party platform isn't pro-choice because "some Democrats are pro-choice and some are pro-life."

In other words, it's a laughable red herring.

Mike in Maryland said...

Seems that many of the right-wing contributors to this site have a reading comprehension problem.

Alaskan Independence Party - it seems that many right-wingers are forgetting the word 'Independence' is part of the party's name.

Is it the name of a town in Alaska, ala the towns named 'Independence' in Missouri, Michigan, Wisconsin, Virginia, Oregon, Ohio, West Virginia, Kentucky, Kansas, Iowa, California or Minnesota, or a county, ala Independence County in Arkansas? Checking Mapquest, there is no town in Alaska named 'Independence' - 10 communities named 'Independence Creek', but not a single one named 'Independence'. And Alaska doesn't have counties, so no 'Independence County'. Throw out the thought that the 'Independence' part of the Alaskan Independence Party is some reference to a place in Alaska.

So we go to the dictionary to figure out what 'Independence' means:

1. the state or quality of being independent.
2. freedom from the control, influence, support, aid, or the like, of others.
Dictionary.com Unabridged

Independent from what? Isn't Alaska part of the United States of America?

Independence from the US government maybe? So a political party advocating 'Independence' would be highly likely to be advocating 'freedom from the control, influence, support, aid, or the like, of others', i.e., complete and total separation from that association with the rest of the US wouldn't it?

In other words, secession? Wasn't that one of the causes of the US Civil War?

Do any of the right-wingers who 'contribute' to this site have any other logical explanation on what the word 'Independence', as used by the Alaskan 'Independence' Party, might mean?

Remember, I said 'logical'. Let's see if any of the right-wingers understand that concept. They haven't shown great skill in exhibiting that for a while - maybe they've just been holding it in reserve. Possible, but doubtful.

Mike

x0lani said...

Does anybody come back to these comments after a few newer posts have been made? If not, then I guess I get to have the last laugh! ;)

GaMeS and Mike in Maryland:
I agree with you that the AIP is totally dodgy. However I disagree that they are, as a party, clearly secessionist. If you dig around their website, under Issues they say state:
The AIP believes full compliance with the constitutions of the United States of America and the State of Alaska is necessary.

They then go on with a bunch of 200-year-old arguments for State's Rights. Libertarians and Texans spout this kind of stuff all the time. Only the fringe really want secession.

My original point is that I'm calling Occam's Razor on this. Palin's not a secessionist. She's clearly ambitious; how would a secessionist agenda benefit her? So she could be Queen of Alaska and all the moose and salmon she surveyed? It's seems much simpler and liklier that she was just pandering for votes.

Actually, my original point was that these are all rumors that started with something fairly trivial and then built up their own momentum. The problem with the rumors is that they are often mistaken for fact. The best way to defend against the rumors is to stick to issues, stated positions, and voting records - which is how democracy is supposed to work in theory anyways.

Francis Deblauwe said...
This post has been removed by the author.
Francis Deblauwe said...

Using Pollster.com's excellent interactive feature, I've just compared Google Insights graphs of the parties' popularity in OH with Pollster.com graphs of the candidates in the same "toss-up" state. Interesting similarities and contrasts... See my Word Face-Off blog. I also looked into the 3rd parties and their candidates.

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