FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Obama Pulls Ahead in Electoral College Projection

9.18.2008

Obama Pulls Ahead in Electoral College Projection

by Nate Silver @ 5:48 PM

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Charts and graphs are updated. Full polling report coming within the hour.

250 comments

Christopher said...: Okay, I love the DrudgeSiren. Nice Work; September 18, 2008 5:52 PM
Matt W said...: WOW look at all that BLUE!!!; September 18, 2008 5:52 PM
Neal said...: Is there a "scarequote" equivalent to the drudgelight?; September 18, 2008 5:52 PM
Matthew said...: Ah, good.
Because I was about to say "Polls or GTFO" because I thought would be terrible clever.
Does this mean the map has been updated also? It looks like the only thing that has changed is that Colorado is pale blue.; September 18, 2008 5:53 PM
Robert said...: Well, the liars are losing. I'm not sure what issues are causing it, but the rampant dishonesty is hurting him among some evangelicals in Texas.; September 18, 2008 5:53 PM
Laertes said...: Take the fight to them!; September 18, 2008 5:54 PM
Jon said...: Oh, thank Science. The last 2 weeks have been hell.; September 18, 2008 5:54 PM
such sweet thunder said...: Why does the siren have to be red, blue & black . . . that's just so . . . so . . . South Korea.; September 18, 2008 5:55 PM
Scott said...: Well, the liars are losing. I'm not sure what issues are causing it, but the rampant dishonesty is hurting him among some evangelicals in Texas.

I haven't seen anything that says McCain is having trouble in Texas. What's that about?; September 18, 2008 5:55 PM
Robert said...: I have continued to be shocked by McCain and Palin's dishonesty. It has been absurd. Top this off with economic floundering (flipping and flopping like a fish out of his neocon foreign policy water), and you have a campaign in some trouble.; September 18, 2008 5:55 PM
Jeff said...: Oh that map looks so much better.

CO and NM are nice shades of blue.

OH and VA are decidedly white.

It's nice to see the data model catch up with the news cycle. It will only get better in the next day or two, IMO.; September 18, 2008 5:56 PM
DJ said...: Nate,

Was this Obama spike made more dramatic by an adjustment you made to allow the change to occur more quickly?

Perhaps we'll learn in the upcoming recap.; September 18, 2008 5:57 PM
EmonOkari said...: Obama now currently projects to have a better chance at flipping Florida than McCain has of flipping Pennsylvania. Since so MANY on one side have stated how 'easily McCain can win Pennsylvania', does that same group now claim Florida to be in-play?; September 18, 2008 5:57 PM
AnotherMike said...: Wow! What a big change in the win percentage for relatively small movements in the polls. Did the methodology change at all?; September 18, 2008 5:57 PM
Robert said...: Scott - sorry if that was totally unclear. My evangelical friends and family in Texas are getting grumpy about being repeatedly lied to about Palin. I don't think McCain needs to worry about the state, even in a landslide, but if they are realizing the rankness of the dishonesty, I'm sure many in closer states are as well.

The part of his "base" that I know is getting a lot less excited, and very quickly at that.; September 18, 2008 5:58 PM
zzyzx said...: I'm guessing that the McCain bounce is now being treated like a bounce.; September 18, 2008 5:58 PM
Andrew said...: Incredible how the SuperTracker went from lazy sand dunes to an EKG in the past month.

We're going to be in for a very compelling 45 days.; September 18, 2008 5:59 PM
Gerry said...: druge siren=stroke of genius.; September 18, 2008 5:59 PM
sugerfunk said...: Wow, I love the fanfare. But not as much as I love the look of the sparkling blue map.; September 18, 2008 6:00 PM
AnotherMike said...: To answer my own question, the supertracker sure seems to show a lot more sensitivity to the new numbers than it has in the past. I'm guessing Nate has adjusted this somewhat as he has indicated in the past that he would do as the election nears.; September 18, 2008 6:00 PM
AxmxZ said...: Welcome back, Real Map of 2008.; September 18, 2008 6:00 PM
Corbin said...: I wish I could see your old map side by side with the new one just for the dramatic shift.; September 18, 2008 6:00 PM
Matt said...: Anyone else think, "Blue light special on aisle 3" when they see the siren?; September 18, 2008 6:00 PM
Sedi said...: "What a big change in the win percentage for relatively small movements in the polls."

It is a consistent and sustained movement. It makes the model think (correctly, I'd say) that there has been a change in the race, even if it is a small one. I still think that the SuperTracker is too sensitive to these sort of changes, but the map looks pretty reasonable right now.; September 18, 2008 6:00 PM
Scott said...: Wow! What a big change in the win percentage for relatively small movements in the polls. Did the methodology change at all?

Relateively small movements? There's been a 7+ point swing in some polls, and Obama is now polling exceptionally well in the previously "solid R" states of Florida and Indiana. Where have you been the past 3 days?; September 18, 2008 6:01 PM
kingpatrick said...: www.barackobama.com
Please give something guys, $5 even. We've got to take this country back from the Thugs.; September 18, 2008 6:01 PM
Tom said...: Hey Nate - when you post the polls and full analysis, please give some context as to how Obama's win % jumps from 45 to 61. As an Obama fan I'm thrilled to see it but I find it hard to believe because I don't recall seeing that number swing like that in the past. Is that just a few tipping point states that have outsize impacts, or is it a small across-the-board percentage shift due to national polls?; September 18, 2008 6:01 PM
Joe said...: anothermike:

in a post yesterday (or perhaps two days ago? but i think yesterday), nate acknowledged that he'd increased the sensitivity of the model.; September 18, 2008 6:02 PM
prairiecomm said...: Has all this shifted or likely to shift any of the senate races?; September 18, 2008 6:02 PM
Sid said...: It's not just a few state polls moving in Obama's direction. Obama's jumped to a ~2-3point lead in many national polls in just the past couple days. A rising tide, as they say...

same reason that Obama's win % came crashing down over the course of just a few days following the RNC bounce.; September 18, 2008 6:02 PM
InkStain said...: "Hey Nate - when you post the polls and full analysis, please give some context as to how Obama's win % jumps from 45 to 61. As an Obama fan I'm thrilled to see it but I find it hard to believe because I don't recall seeing that number swing like that in the past. Is that just a few tipping point states that have outsize impacts, or is it a small across-the-board percentage shift due to national polls?"

My guess would be a couple things:

1) We have a lot more polls than we've had in a long time.
2) There's a strong inertial quality to the national tracking, which is slow to start moving and slow to stop moving. It started moving with the last set of polls and picked up speed with this one.; September 18, 2008 6:03 PM
Dan Warren said...: It is my careful and considered opinion that HOORAY WOOOOO!; September 18, 2008 6:03 PM
Roblvrty8 said...: I don't understand how you get 284 for Obama. I added up all the states you have in blue and I get 273, still a win, but not 284.; September 18, 2008 6:03 PM
MAXIMO said...: I had faith but this relieves some of the pressure on my soul...; September 18, 2008 6:03 PM
weav said...: I would guess that the dramatic shift is because of the new rather large leads in polls in iowa and new mexico along with that +10 in co along with the regression in kerry states makes that combo a really likely one.; September 18, 2008 6:03 PM
Trevor said...: Why do the state %'s and poll regressions load so slowly?

Roblvrty8--It's done by weighted averages; it takes into account the decent chance that he'll flip VA, OH, NV, etc. (and the chance he'll lose NH, CO, etc. are also factored in.); September 18, 2008 6:04 PM
InkStain said...: "I don't understand how you get 284 for Obama. I added up all the states you have in blue and I get 273, still a win, but not 284."

It's an average, not a "most likely result."; September 18, 2008 6:04 PM
JW Mason said...: Can we all agree now that dropping the convention adjustment was a mistake?; September 18, 2008 6:05 PM
Kevin said...: Read these comments from today's Pew Research poll:

"Race – White voters support McCain over Obama by a margin of 52%-38%, unchanged from
August. Obama’s large lead among black voters (89%-5%) is also unchanged from a month ago.
These leads are comparable to the results in 2004, according to the exit polls."

Found this to be interesting (the vs '04 part). When it's all said and done, the percentages/ratios will likely stay the same for 2008: Of course GOP will get most of the white vote and Dems most of the black vote. The difference will be turnout. The turnout/GOTV dynamic will be the story of the election night.; September 18, 2008 6:05 PM
jakam said...: This post has been removed by the author.; September 18, 2008 6:05 PM
TINAandRON said...: Good update, could you post a link or make a page on the times that the polls close on election day. Thats something that we should have handy.; September 18, 2008 6:06 PM
C.S.Strowbridge said...: I was expecting the win percentage to move back to nearly 50/50. So this was an amazing sight to see.; September 18, 2008 6:06 PM
malanb5 said...: Good news, good news. Too bad it had to take a financial crisis to show that McCain doesn't know anything about it.

Keep the momentum going!; September 18, 2008 6:06 PM
Colorado Liberal said...: These polls show that McCain/Palin can fool some of the people some of the time, but not all the time.

Their lying has caught up with them. And, Yes, it IS the economy, stupid!; September 18, 2008 6:07 PM
Sid said...: "Can we all agree now that dropping the convention adjustment was a mistake?"

Well, given that we didn't know, a priori, how the convention bounce would work, it would have been an imperfect model anyway. For example, Obama did get a convention bounce, it was just a few days later than expected, and would have been weighted weirdly by the bounce adjustment. Likewise, no one had any idea how long McCain's bounce would linger for. And who could have predicted a 'bounce' from a financial collapse.

It's better to keep things simple and as closely reflecting the underlying data as possible.; September 18, 2008 6:07 PM
jakam said...: I'm not surprised at the depth iof the one day change in Nate's model...it comes from a combination of strong polling in swing states, good showings in midwestern states (including one placing Obama up by 3 in Indiana) and even the effect of Rasmussen's three northeastern polls in NJ, VT, and CT, which seem to have bumped McCain's back down into the low single digits. Before today, McCain had been creeping towards 10% in state wins, even in IL.

I was expecting Obama to jump well past 270 when all of today's polls were thrown in the pot and boiled, so 285 is no surprise to me.; September 18, 2008 6:07 PM
llywrch said...: Nate -- When are planning on updating the Senate scorecard? From the most recent polls, at least three of the "Leans GOP" candidates have moved to a toss-up: NC, MN & OR.

In OR, this narrowing in the race is due to Smith having gone negative early & often. (It also didn't help that he's been claiming hard that he's *really* a Democrat, which only annoys the real Democrats & demoralizes his Republican base.)

Geoff; September 18, 2008 6:08 PM
AxmxZ said...: Kevin: The difference isn't just in the turnout; it's also in the new post-2006 ratio of Dems to Reps. It's several tangible precious percent higher now than in 2004.; September 18, 2008 6:08 PM
John Peterson said...: Stupid hippies and nonsense Spanish-language ads turning my state blue...; September 18, 2008 6:08 PM
Corbin said...: Rob, I think the 284 he gets is the median of all simulations.; September 18, 2008 6:08 PM
PeteKent said...: Nate noted the other day that he had "tweaked" the model to make it a bit more sensitive. Hence the roller coaster ride.

Obama is getting a short term bounce from some bad economic news as to which he has no clue how to fix and which runs contra to his higher tax mantra, especially where investment taxes are concerned.

He will be unmasked soon.

He is also losing on the values issues in the heartland as the latest Battleground Polls make clear.

Obama has a very fragile, temporary advantage that is likely to be swept away when the dust clears from the news of this week and certainly after the first debate, which McCain will win, if only because he speaks simply and clearly, and so little is expected of him.

Notice also that all Obama is being given credit for in the media is his attacks on McCain. He is still not the focus of this campaign and that is bad for him. He must close the sale personally and he will not do that by attacking McCain as Bush redux.

Obama is essentially unknown and widely viewed as inexperienced (he loses on that dimension 70 - 30). If he cannot speak positively about who he is and what he intends to do, he will lose, especially if things look bad on Election Day.

In short, bad news is not good for Obama.; September 18, 2008 6:09 PM
Jon said...: You're cooking the Numbers Nate! You just want to PRETEND that Obama is winning!

In REALITY, Americans, especially low information voters, are just suckers for abuse, and they are BEGGING for another four years of Republican rule.

OH YEAH, SPANK ME AGAIN MASTER MCCAIN AND MISTRESS SARAH! I NEED, I CRAVE MORE DEFICIT SPENDING AND ENDLESS WAR!!; September 18, 2008 6:09 PM
Vern said...: Clearly, this is all due to the Palin effect
wearing off.; September 18, 2008 6:09 PM
Colorado Liberal said...: And what happened to our favorite right-wing trolls who were declaring the race over last week?

Back in their caves where they belong!; September 18, 2008 6:09 PM
Cugel said...: Here's a summary that says it all. Obama takes a 2.8% lead averaging the 4 national tracking polls.

If this movement were reflected in voting on election day Obama would have about an 85% chance of winning the election.

"Obama Expanding His Lead In The Tracking Polls
By Eric Kleefeld - September 18, 2008, 1:56PM

Here's a wrap-up of the four major national tracking polls for today, with all four of them showing some small positive movement for Barack Obama as he expands his recently regained national lead:

Gallup: Obama 48%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error. Yesterday, Obama moved into a narrow lead of 47%-45%.

Rasmussen: McCain 48%, Obama 48%, with a ±2% margin of error. Yesterday, McCain had a bare edge of 48%-47%.

Hotline/Diageo: Obama 46%, McCain 42%, with a ±3.2% margin of error. Yesterday, Obama was up 45%-42%.

Research 2000: Obama 49%, McCain 43%, with a ±3% margin of error. Yesterday, Obama was up 48%-44%.

Adding these polls together and weighting them by sample sizes, Obama is now ahead by a margin of 47.9%-45.1%, compared to yesterday's lead of 46.9%-45.6%"

All in all, the movement towards Obama continues. The McCain convention bounce is dead, and Sarah Palin continues to drag down his ticket. Despite tremendous enthusiasm among conservatives for her, the rest of the country is much less enthused. She is now the least popular of the 4 candidates by a significant margin in the approval ratings. Research 2000 shows her at -4% and other pollsters have her approval rating dropping precipitously.

No good news for McCain right now.; September 18, 2008 6:09 PM
Zeh said...: ROFL, great work on having Drudge's siren.; September 18, 2008 6:12 PM
Mark said...: Things certainly look nicer than they did last week, but its a long road ahead folks.

Palin, in retrospect, worked for McCain. Not a good choice as a backup-president, but as a momentum changer she was a successful choice. I think she was McCain's answer to the 'celebrity' factor of Obama. It dominated the news cycle for a while, but it seems it was only a Palin-bubble.

But this latest swing is also just a bubble. The economy is the big media story of the week, which favours Obama heavily. What will the big news story be 3 days before the election? Another economic disaster that pushes Obama over the top, or maybe a terrorist/military issue that favours mccain? Its still too early to either be overly frightened or too secure in the results of fluid poll numbers.; September 18, 2008 6:12 PM
PeteKent said...: Small wonder that Palin's negatives have gone up. She has endured the most relentless attacksd over the past few weeks.

Don't worry: American's love a come back story!

This is a very short-run move for Obama.; September 18, 2008 6:14 PM
InkStain said...: "Palin, in retrospect, worked for McCain. Not a good choice as a backup-president, but as a momentum changer she was a successful choice. I think she was McCain's answer to the 'celebrity' factor of Obama. It dominated the news cycle for a while, but it seems it was only a Palin-bubble."

Only if you assume that he wouldn't have gotten the bounce from his convention anyways.

"But this latest swing is also just a bubble. The economy is the big media story of the week, which favours Obama heavily. What will the big news story be 3 days before the election? Another economic disaster that pushes Obama over the top, or maybe a terrorist/military issue that favours mccain? Its still too early to either be overly frightened or too secure in the results of fluid poll numbers."

You are overestimating how easy elections are to move outside of conventions.

Most of us see this as a return to where the "fundamentals" of the race naturally belong, given demographics and voter party IDs and other such stuff.; September 18, 2008 6:14 PM
InkStain said...: "Palin, in retrospect, worked for McCain. Not a good choice as a backup-president, but as a momentum changer she was a successful choice. I think she was McCain's answer to the 'celebrity' factor of Obama. It dominated the news cycle for a while, but it seems it was only a Palin-bubble."

Only if you assume that he wouldn't have gotten the bounce from his convention anyways.

"But this latest swing is also just a bubble. The economy is the big media story of the week, which favours Obama heavily. What will the big news story be 3 days before the election? Another economic disaster that pushes Obama over the top, or maybe a terrorist/military issue that favours mccain? Its still too early to either be overly frightened or too secure in the results of fluid poll numbers."

You are overestimating how easy elections are to move outside of conventions.

Most of us see this as a return to where the "fundamentals" of the race naturally belong, given demographics and voter party IDs and other such stuff.; September 18, 2008 6:14 PM
GaMeS said...: Roblvrty8 said...
I don't understand how you get 284 for Obama. I added up all the states you have in blue and I get 273, still a win, but not 284.

If you add up the states that are shaded blue, that will give you the electoral vote using the median results for each state. The 284.8 in the corner is the electoral vote if you take the mean results of each state (i.e. multiply its electoral votes by its likelihood of being in your column).; September 18, 2008 6:14 PM
NC_voter said...: But, but, what happened to all the republiClowns who kept telling me that McCain's post convention lead was a "fundamental shift"??

And yet, less than three weeks after the RNC (which is less than Nate projected it would take McCain to lose his bounce), the Palin honeymoon is officially over!

Two fold:

The media love affair with Sarah Barracuda ended a few days ago, with the media waking up and realizing that the woman on the other side of the bed is a naive liar. And even worse of J-mac, is that the liar narrative is starting to stick to them. Looks like there IS any upper threshold on how far you can use Rovian smear tactics and lies before it starts to backfire!

With the economy issue heating things up again, the lipstick is melting off and people are now seeing (now including the low-info-watercooler type) the pig underneath. And as we know, when both candidates are forced to talk about issues, the Dems win in a landslide. It's very telling when the regular 'Clown trolls on this site are desperate enough to start claiming that "rezko/ayers/wright" fallout is *really* going to start this time...

The debates if anything, will be a wash for a slight advantage for Obama. Sans the Foreign policy debate, which will give McCain his biggest bump before the election. Luckily, the last debate is on Domestic issues a.k.a the Economy. Obama getting in a clever jab about John "The fundamentals of the economy are strong" McCain will put the nail on the coffin.

In the end, the voters will recognize that Obama is the best bet to save a disastrous economy, and that J-Mac and pals have been associated with the policies that contributed toward this mess in the first place.

You guys really had a chance to take charge on this issue. Like, 3 months ago, instead of running "celebrity" ads straight from Rove's playbook. Maybe try something different for '12, or more likely '16. As the longterm demographic shifts in this country HEAVILY favor the dems, you really have no other choice.; September 18, 2008 6:14 PM
Robert said...: Well, that's good news IF we're actually allowed to vote

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/09/18/voting.problems/index.html; September 18, 2008 6:14 PM
InkStain said...: "Small wonder that Palin's negatives have gone up. She has endured the most relentless attacksd over the past few weeks."

That's also known as "people finding out about her."; September 18, 2008 6:14 PM
Sid said...: pete kent - I wouldn't be surprised if the polls go up and down a fair amount from here on out, but I don't think this is just a 'financial collapse bounce'.

If you look at the change in the gap between Obama and McCain from day to day among the four daily trackers, Obama has, on average, either maintained the gap, or gained, every day since Sept 8th.

Might the financial crises be inflating his numbers by a point or two? Maybe, and that would be a short term bounce. But, let's not ignore that he has been improving steadily, and we don't know where exactly the gap will stabilize to.; September 18, 2008 6:15 PM
AxmxZ said...: Now that Obama is back where he was pre-conventions, I think he'll stay there. Tomorrow will be one final day of improvement for him, as the last of McCain's pre-market crash days falls off thetracking charts, but after that, he'll probably deflate some and settle into a stable 2%-2.5% lead. Ceteris paribus, that lead should carry him comfortably into the first debate.; September 18, 2008 6:15 PM
Vanessa said...: Mark,
I think what is lost is that McCain chose Palin because things were starting to look scary. Now I don't think OBama is going to run away with this thing, I think if he can hold a small lead, Palin will gradually deteriorate and we'll be back to square one + evangelicals.

The problem is though, is that it might not just be square one. She might actually turn out to be a liability.

Can you think of the last favorable piece of media that she has had over the last four days?; September 18, 2008 6:15 PM
Vote said...: Sept 18 Polling Update

Their Possible Pasts

Cindy McCain's Fallacious Rebuttal

The Red November: An analysis on campaign marketing; September 18, 2008 6:15 PM
neekblas said...: If my understanding of the 538 model is correct, a swing as wild as this one (the win percentage swung more than 15 points since yesterday) would indicate that tomorrow's numbers will be even more in favor of Obama.

Is that a correct assumption?; September 18, 2008 6:15 PM
jakam said...: Things certainly look nicer than they did last week, but its a long road ahead folks.

True, but there's nothing left that's "in a bubble". McCain had his VP pick, which piqued excitement and drastically curtailed the effect of the DNC bounce. Then he immediately had his RNC bounce.

Now the biggest factors left are the debates, which aren't events for one party or the other. And just as with the elctoral college, if Obama merely manages to "tie" McCain in them, he'll win.; September 18, 2008 6:16 PM
InkStain said...: "Can you think of the last favorable piece of media that she has had over the last four days?"

The glasses story on cnn.com, without even thinking that hard.; September 18, 2008 6:16 PM
Mega said...: Insider Advantage poll out today shows Obama +10 in Colorado. That's the source of this big jump.; September 18, 2008 6:17 PM
Bob said...: With the debate coming up this race could be nearly decided by the weekend. Then we just have to survive the total mudslide that will come in the last ditch desparation moves.; September 18, 2008 6:17 PM
InkStain said...: "If my understanding of the 538 model is correct, a swing as wild as this one (the win percentage swung more than 15 points since yesterday) would indicate that tomorrow's numbers will be even more in favor of Obama."

I think most of this was coming from yesterday, when the polls were clearly favoring Obama but the model hadn't caught up.; September 18, 2008 6:17 PM
Scott said...: Insider Advantage poll out today shows Obama +10 in Colorado. That's the source of this big jump.

I believe Nate already said that I/A wasn't included in today's update.; September 18, 2008 6:18 PM
Jim said...: .gif animations are obnoxious, even on days with good news.; September 18, 2008 6:18 PM
jakam said...: Well, that's good news IF we're actually allowed to vote

Vote early. Almost every purple state has early voting.

Don't risk chaos on election day.; September 18, 2008 6:19 PM
InkStain said...: "I believe Nate already said that I/A wasn't included in today's update."

I see it on the chart on the right-hand side.; September 18, 2008 6:19 PM
Andy said...: The siren ruins the aesthetic of an otherwise soberingly well-done site.; September 18, 2008 6:19 PM
Will said...: and on this very same day, pollster.com moves PA, WI and MN all from lean-Obama to toss-up.

ack who should I believe!?; September 18, 2008 6:20 PM
Tito said...: PeteKent -

Your posts have no facts to back them up, you have no credibility and you're nothing but hot air. The best thing you'd be good for is heating my home in the winter. But political analysis ain't your bag, buddy.

I know the first stage of grief is denial, so I can see what you're going through today. As you move through the next stages (anger, bargaining, depression) try to not let the next 6+ weeks (and the following 4-8 years) get you down too much. Remember, the journey through grief ends with acceptance... you know, like Obama accepting the Oath of Office.; September 18, 2008 6:20 PM
Scott said...: Hm... in the last thread Nate said specifically "No, this update did not include the InsiderAdvantage polls (including the O+10 in Colorado). It did include the Big 10 and National Journal polls."

Okay then.; September 18, 2008 6:20 PM
Vanessa said...: "If my understanding of the 538 model is correct, a swing as wild as this one (the win percentage swung more than 15 points since yesterday) would indicate that tomorrow's numbers will be even more in favor of Obama."

No the model jumped quickly because it takes a while to respond to new data trends. It needs time to "confirm" that the trends arent just noise.; September 18, 2008 6:21 PM
Cugel said...: Here's the real key which is destroying McCain:

" Despite an intense effort to distance himself from the way his party has done business in Washington, Senator John McCain is seen by voters as far less likely to bring change to Washington than Senator Barack Obama. He is widely viewed as a “typical Republican” who would continue or expand President Bush’s policies, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll."

For all the trolls chortling that the "McCain = Bush" attacks aren't working: THEY ARE! A majority of Americans are looking to Obama to bring change and McCain's claim to be the "Maverick reformer" are falling on deaf ears. He's preaching to the base, but the rest of America is not buying it.

And the more Americans focus on the economy, the worse it will get for McCain.

The economy isn't an issue that is just going to go away so that voters can start worrying about whether Sarah has a nice family or McCain was a war hero 35 years ago or a Maverick 8 years ago.

The NYT poll shows why economic bad news hurts McCain: Voters don't think he really means to change anything.

So long as the campaign is about feel-good stories and fluff and personalities - McCain gains a lead. The minute it starts focusing about real pocket-book issues he tanks.

He's going to continue to tank if the Gallup polling is any indication. Rasmussen is holding up his numbers but that's because their weighted average is slow to show changes -- rather like Nate's model.

By Monday, expect to see Obama with a +4% lead in Rasmussen and perhaps back to 6-8% in Gallup, 10%+ in Research 2000,a nd perhaps 6% in Diego.; September 18, 2008 6:21 PM
InkStain said...: "ack who should I believe!?"

Look for yourself.

Take, for example, a list of the polls in the last month in each of those states. Count which candidate was ahead almost every time, and which wasn't.; September 18, 2008 6:22 PM
Alex S. said...: Well...before the conventions Obama was in a bit of trouble. After the pick of Joe Biden he had actually trailed McCain in Win percentage until his convention bounce kicked in. But the McCain campaign probably knew that Obama could easily jump from bounce to bounce to a safe win, because the Republicans couldnt really counter it (no convention bounce because Republicans are disliked; no debate bounce because the issues don´t favor McCain). So the campaign chose to do something really risky, and broke through Obama´s bounces with a bounce of their own. Sarah Palin actually gave a reason to watch the Republican Convention. But now it´s over.
Even if the economy recovers, it will be the main issue of the upcoming weeks, except for some international crisis, and I mean...war.; September 18, 2008 6:23 PM
InkStain said...: "By Monday, expect to see Obama with a +4% lead in Rasmussen and perhaps back to 6-8% in Gallup, 10%+ in Research 2000,a nd perhaps 6% in Diego."

Eek, that seems wildly optimistic.; September 18, 2008 6:23 PM
Drew said...: I said on Monday that this was the best I've seen Obama be in months. It seems like he's finally getting it. His responses to McCain are repeatedly sharp, witty, and simple. McCain in contrast has just seemed lost this week. It is on Obama to control the message the rest of the way and that means keeping it focused on the economy.; September 18, 2008 6:24 PM
Ichabod said...: You must be creaming your pants Nate!; September 18, 2008 6:25 PM
Scott said...: His responses to McCain are repeatedly sharp, witty, and simple.

The "McCain calls that a staff meeting" line was brilliant. He might be onto something with the "Good Old Boys Network" messaging.; September 18, 2008 6:25 PM
Sullydog said...: Guys, I just don't believe it.

Obama is the Harvard intellectual. McCain is the Annapolis maverick.

Obama is the "community organizer." McCain is the War Hero POW.

Obama is wind farms, for Chrissake. McCain is Drill Here Drill Now.

Obama's VP is an old senator from...Delaware? McCain's is a Moose-hunting hockey mom from the last American frontier.

Obama is tofu. McCain is steak and potatoes.

I think we're looking at the ultimate Bradley effect here.

I just think it's a stretch that America is going to pass on an American hero to put Barack Hussein Obama in the White House.; September 18, 2008 6:26 PM
Scott said...: and on this very same day, pollster.com moves PA, WI and MN all from lean-Obama to toss-up.

States that are +3.1 Obama, +4.2 Obama, and +4.9 Obama in Polling Averages are NOT tossups. They are lying to you. Period.; September 18, 2008 6:26 PM
don't panic said...: this could be a naive question, but from the map, Obama should have 273 electoral votes, if i am counting right. where do the extra 11.8 EV come from?

also, in a projection, why would you use the average that can give an impossible (fraction of a vote) result.
wouldn't the median or the modal values be more appropriate? (i assume that the value is derived from the distribution chart on the right)

on a side note it would be useful to newcomers like me to have easy to find links that explain the various charts and tables. some are quite abstruse.; September 18, 2008 6:27 PM
Drew said...: His speech today in response to McCain calling for the SEC head to be fired was also on point. He finally seemed to position himself as the "fight for you" candidate that Hillary was late in the primaries.; September 18, 2008 6:27 PM
westcoast conservative said...: Just a temporary blip on the radar screen.. lets see how Nobamas numbers do when Rezko stands in front of the judge to hear his prison sentence just before the election. That will start another major media cycle and we will watch his numbers plummet.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tony_Rezko; September 18, 2008 6:28 PM
mikelow1885 said...: A Rasmussen poll of New Hampshire is overdue. Let's see if it confirms ARG.; September 18, 2008 6:29 PM
Barrak said...: Colorado needs to be adjusted; Insider Advantage poll should be considered an outlier and discarded.; September 18, 2008 6:29 PM
justin32099 said...: "She has endured the most relentless attacks over the past few weeks."

Discovering the truth behind her claims in her convention speeches are not "attacks." Most of the bad publicity has been her own doing--lying about the Bridge to Nowhere, dodging the Troopergate scandal, taking all those earmarks and still claiming to be a small-government reformer. And then of course the fact that she's nowhere near qualified for this job.

I think the "dislike" pct. has reached a saturation point, personally, I think people are honestly sick of her (I know I am). Pulling her out of the spotlight a bit will help, but it won't overcome the fact that a majority of Americans realize that McCain has made a highly political choice that may have "enthused" the base but would not be a competent vice president.; September 18, 2008 6:30 PM
PeteKent said...: Well said, Sully Dog.

I will leave you all to enjoy your moment, brief though it may be.; September 18, 2008 6:31 PM
Cugel said...: It's clear that the Sarah Palin pick is tanking McCain, according to CBS poll:

"Obama now also leads McCain among women, a group that favored McCain by five points in polling taken just after the Republican convention, where Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin became the second woman ever to be nominated to a major party ticket.

Obama leads McCain 54 percent to 38 percent among all women. He holds a two point edge among white women, a 21 percentage point swing in Obama's direction from one week ago.

The Candidates For Vice President:

While Palin remains popular among McCain voters, the poll suggests that the McCain campaign may have cause for concern. More than half of registered voters do not think Palin is prepared for the job of Vice President, and even McCain supporters cite “inexperience” as what they like least about her.

Just 17 percent of registered voters say McCain chose Palin because she is well qualified for the job of Vice President. Seventy-five percent say McCain made the choice to help win the election. (Even voters backing the Republican ticket share this view: 53 percent say the Palin choice was to help McCain win in November.)

Contrast that with the perception of Obama's selection of Delaware Sen. Joe Biden as running mate: 57 percent of registered voters say Obama chose Biden because he is well qualified. Thirty-one percent say the choice was to help with the election."

McCain made a play for white women with the Palin pick, and it worked --- for a little while. As long as the race was focused on personalities, it was a positive.

The minute the race moved to bread and butter economic issues, 21% of white women switched to Obama in 1 week! That's HUGE!; September 18, 2008 6:31 PM
Vernon said...: Clearly the past few days have benefited Obama. What is so strange is how close it is in places like Wisconsin and Michigan, not to mention Pennsylvania. Why is it so close in some of those Kerry states if the trend is Obama improving in the popular vote? Still, I don't see anything to indicate Obama will win in IN, NC, VA or FL. On the other hand OH and CO seem like they are on the bubble both ways. So both candidates have a path to victory. And I think there is a reasonable chance that the winner of the popular vote will not win the electoral vote. Everything hinges on the debates and outside factors neither man can control. But I think Obama has the lead going into the debates. Hopefully he's practicing right now on his debate skills.; September 18, 2008 6:32 PM
Alan said...: Your methodology on projections confuses the shit out of me.

But still, nice to see Obama back up.; September 18, 2008 6:32 PM
tigermoman said...: Question Folks does anybody know anything of the bigten battleground polls. Who are they i have never heard of these polls?; September 18, 2008 6:32 PM
justin32099 said...: "Colorado needs to be adjusted; Insider Advantage poll should be considered an outlier and discarded."

Nate has explained that the model "hedges" against outlier numbers. In all likelihood the model is highly distrustful of it (see how it's only predicting that Obama wins by 1.9%?) But as a scientist I know that you can't just throw out a data point because it seems odd, unless there's actually something wrong with the poll or you redo it enough times to statistically exclude it (which is impossible in this case).; September 18, 2008 6:32 PM
mcc said...: Trying to figure out... did any state in fact flip between today's map and yesterday's map except Colorado?; September 18, 2008 6:33 PM
Tito said...: Wow, so many Republican trolls coming out all of a sudden. Feels like Halloween. Tell me trolls, any of you, what's Republican John McCain's plan for the economy? It's been almost two weeks since this started with the bail out of Fannie and Freddie, and I'm not hearing and concerted or coherent message from McCain about the economy.

So please, spread the message of your plan and enlighten me and others as to what John McCain and the Republican Party are proposing in order to fix our collapsing economy.; September 18, 2008 6:33 PM
PeteKent said...: Justin:

You wrote: "And then of course the fact that she's nowhere near qualified for this job."

By a margin of 70 to 30 McCain trumps Obama in the expereice score.

I think it worse to have this problem at the top of your ticket.; September 18, 2008 6:33 PM
Drew said...: Question, how long can Palin possibly continue to use the "thanks but no thanks to that bridge to no where" line? Every time it comes out of her mouth, it cuts deeper and deeper.; September 18, 2008 6:34 PM
Vernon said...: http://www.knoxnews.com/news/2008/sep/18/tennessean-state-reps-son-contacted-palin-e-mail-p/

Democratic Rep's son may be involved in the Palin email hack. Hmm...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a5SOK1vsQl50&refer=worldwide

Stocks soar most in six years. Hmm...

Could these affect the next cycle of polls? Stay tuned.; September 18, 2008 6:34 PM
Andy said...: Another few days of polls like this and McCain will have to do some serious thinking.; September 18, 2008 6:35 PM
Fizz Byers said...: I don't know why McCain abandoned the experience game plan and went for change when Obama is clearly the change candidate. Of course, there are a lot of things McCain does that I don't get. Vote Robot '08; September 18, 2008 6:36 PM
Becky Sharp said...: Andrew said: Incredible how the SuperTracker went from lazy sand dunes to an EKG in the past month.

Best comment ever!

Great news too. I'm hoping its a reaction to McCain/Palin ethics/shallowness than the temporary Wall Street "emergency"; September 18, 2008 6:36 PM
moondancer said...: O ye of little faith. The McCain Edsel is careening down Mulholland Blvd with a blown steering box. And Obama is lined up for pulling away on the home stretch.; September 18, 2008 6:36 PM
Vanessa said...: Vernon is the resident troll. SewDoubt Vernon; September 18, 2008 6:36 PM
Scott said...: What is so strange is how close it is in places like Wisconsin and Michigan, not to mention Pennsylvania.

Kerry won the above states: Less than 1%, 3%, 2%

Obama is leading in poll averages: 4.2, 3, and 3.1.

So I ask again: what reason does anyone have to believe that it's exceptionally close or that Obama is struggling in these states? PLEASE EXPLAIN.; September 18, 2008 6:37 PM
tigermoman said...: The main reason the stocks soared is because the fed made comments about doing similar things to the S&L crises in the 80'S so i bet it wont effect the polls much must people like me don't think we should keep bailing out companies because there stupid.; September 18, 2008 6:38 PM
Tito said...: I guess no one can tell me about McCain's economic plan. That's pretty sad and a complete messaging failure for his campaign.; September 18, 2008 6:38 PM
Drew said...: I think a lot of the state polls are lagging behind. The numbers in states like PA, MI, and WI will reflect the shift towards Obama next week.

btw, anyone thinking McCain will win any one of those 3 states is fooling themselves.; September 18, 2008 6:38 PM
Carl S said...: Long way to go before the election, folks. This thing could swing back and forth as much as the Dow is doing.; September 18, 2008 6:39 PM
SuperstarJ2ThaR said...: Scott:

Vernon's just regular old trolling, until he mentions that he's a former Obama supporter. Then it becomes concern trolling.

Pete:

You might want to go find a job as a top because you are doing nothing but spinning.; September 18, 2008 6:39 PM
Vanessa said...: Vernon,
Did you see Sarah Palin fielding questions from the audience yesterday? Do you think it may concern independents that she is shaky on most issues and manages to sound juvenile even on energy? Not saying that it will but do you think that's cause for concern?
hmm...; September 18, 2008 6:40 PM
moondancer said...: Barring compromising photos, Pa is locked for Obama. There are factors that aren't in polls folks. Krusty can't win Pa.; September 18, 2008 6:40 PM
Alan said...: @Vernon
Thanks Vernon, that's given me some great opinion on what I was looking for. Thanks for taking the time.

Just to pick up on a point you made about the medias treatment of Dem and Rep Presidents.

Also, the media here is very supportive of Democratic presidents, less so of Republicans (this is a contentious point but just look at the coverage yourself and consider the various non-partisan studies on the topic).

As an outsider who looks in at your elections, more often than not through your media, most of it appears balanced to me (though obviously mine is a very small sample from the daily throughput).

Then there is Fox News!! We don't have anything like them in Ireland, it's hard to get my head around them and how brazen they are. I guess it comes down to the diversity of people in the US compared to Ireland (6 million).

Anyway thanks for the analysis.; September 18, 2008 6:41 PM
westcoast conservative said...: I figured there would be a demorat behind palins hacked account..

This should get interesting if leads back to someone working for obama; September 18, 2008 6:41 PM
Sullydog said...: "So I ask again: what reason does anyone have to believe that it's exceptionally close or that Obama is struggling in these states? PLEASE EXPLAIN."

See my post above. On election day, it'll be War Hero vs. Community Organizer, Intellectual vs. Maverick, tofu vs. steak n' fries.; September 18, 2008 6:41 PM
InkStain said...: "So I ask again: what reason does anyone have to believe that it's exceptionally close or that Obama is struggling in these states? PLEASE EXPLAIN."

How many polls in those states has he trailed in, vs. how many ahead?

It's far, far easier to make a state close than it is to flip it.; September 18, 2008 6:41 PM
EmonOkari said...: This post has been removed by the author.; September 18, 2008 6:42 PM
InkStain said...: "See my post above. On election day, it'll be War Hero vs. Community Organizer, Intellectual vs. Maverick, tofu vs. steak n' fries."

How come that hasn't worked so far?; September 18, 2008 6:42 PM
tigermoman said...: Tito i can tell you Gramm Helped write it.; September 18, 2008 6:42 PM
Drew said...: On PA... is it just me or does Ed Rendell strike anyone else as just one of those old time political bosses who has his territory locked down with his organization for his party?; September 18, 2008 6:43 PM
Vanessa said...: See American's had steak and fries in 2000 and 04. They get kind of sick of the whole meal especially when it costs them more and more each cycle...; September 18, 2008 6:43 PM
EmonOkari said...: Tito,

You can read all about McCain's economic plan here: www.georgewbush.com; September 18, 2008 6:43 PM
SuperstarJ2ThaR said...: See my post above. On election day, it'll be War Hero vs. Community Organizer, Intellectual vs. Maverick, tofu vs. steak n' fries.

No, on election day, it'll be "McCain's a nice old guy, but my house is foreclosed and I can't get a job. I'm gonna vote Obama, even if I have to hold my nose to do it."; September 18, 2008 6:43 PM
The Real Mike Is Back said...: My five "political sites" that I have bookmarked are:

• Talking Points Memo
• Andrew Sullivan
• 538
• Drudge
• Corner @ National Review

The cross-pollination? Awesome!; September 18, 2008 6:44 PM
Mike said...: This post has been removed by the author.; September 18, 2008 6:44 PM
Blue_State_Blues said...: If you are as excited as I am about Obama being in the lead again, have a look at this video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wUAiGbNp8oI
and then please go to www.barackobama.com
and donate.; September 18, 2008 6:45 PM
Jack-be-nimble said...: All the libs are now truly desperate. They are freaking out that they are on a losing path. Obama is in freefall. He just recommended to get in peoples faces and argue with them. Maybe they should threaten them Chicago Machine pol style.

Palin is attracting huge crowds and McCain has the only real plan for reforming the financial system.

Obama has been called out on his racist radio ad on New Mexico air. Even Concervative turned flaming gay lib. Andrew Sullivan called out Obama for has racist musings.

All of the polls with no likely voter screen, show no improvement for Obama.

Who is a better leader? McCain +20
Who can protect the country? McCain 20+. These are always the issues that people vote for president. Why do you think republicans have won 7/10 elections?

Do you think if Obama was going to win, it would be so close in Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin & Pennsylvania? These are all precursors to comfortable electoral landslide for McCain.; September 18, 2008 6:45 PM
Matthew H said...: InkStain said...
"By Monday, expect to see Obama with a +4% lead in Rasmussen and perhaps back to 6-8% in Gallup, 10%+ in Research 2000,a nd perhaps 6% in Diego."

Eek, that seems wildly optimistic.

Gallup's numbers for Sunday were probably about even, so when that drops off the number's going to at least +6%. But the amazing part is that Nate's numbers are going to start predicting a 75% chance for Obama and him winning 320EVs or some such nonsense.

I predicted this a week ago. The Trend Adjuster wasn't taking into account the bounce. So it was assuming that the climb was real, and would continue to get larger and larger until McCain won in a landslide. But now the bounce is gone, and the Trend Adjuster is assuming this downward trend will go down and down and down until Obama wins in a landslide. In a week or so, it'll be back to normal.

But that was the sudden overnight shift- the trend adjuster going from McCain improving steadily to Obama improving steadily, when in fact I expect the race to look like this on November 3, barring anything exciting.; September 18, 2008 6:45 PM
Drew said...: It's amazing that terms like "Community Organizer" and "Intellectual" are be seen as derogatory.; September 18, 2008 6:46 PM
PeteKent said...: Obama insulted the people of PA and those in the hertland during the Primary and no one has forgotten. He has no place to go for more votes than he got during that drubbing from Sen. Clinton. Fir whatever reason on primary day he did did not bring out much extra turnout in Philly and got beat bad. PA is far from a lock for Obama.; September 18, 2008 6:46 PM
DH said...: Nate, can you again comment on the correction you put in a few months ago for elections tightening towards the end (that is, discounting anyone's leads). To all ye heart patients out there, as we near the election, this discount term becomes less important and the win percentage will amplify any changes in the poll more and more. In other words, we may be in for a wild ride. So don't cheer or despair until Nov 4.; September 18, 2008 6:46 PM
Jay said...: This post has been removed by the author.; September 18, 2008 6:47 PM
Eric said...: Vernon said...
Clearly the past few days have benefited Obama. What is so strange is how close it is in places like Wisconsin and Michigan, not to mention Pennsylvania. Why is it so close in some of those Kerry states if the trend is Obama improving in the popular vote? Still, I don't see anything to indicate Obama will win in IN, NC, VA or FL. On the other hand OH and CO seem like they are on the bubble both ways. So both candidates have a path to victory. And I think there is a reasonable chance that the winner of the popular vote will not win the electoral vote. Everything hinges on the debates and outside factors neither man can control. But I think Obama has the lead going into the debates. Hopefully he's practicing right now on his debate skills.

Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, are pure tossups. I think today all of them lean Obama. Michigan leans Obama. Nevada, anyone's guess. Indiana and North Carolina are probably unlikely to be tipping points, unless Obama's get out the AA vote has worked magic. I do agree that Penn, Wis, NH and Minn look very vulnerable for Obama. If you think McCain's camps intenrals are somehow the truth and they know something we don't,you'd probably be wrong. Obama is outspending McCain in Virginia 3:1, but McCain has spent about the same, actually a litte more in Florida and Colorado and 3:2 in Penn; September 18, 2008 6:47 PM
SuperstarJ2ThaR said...: It's amazing that terms like "Community Organizer" and "Intellectual" are be seen as derogatory.

That's what happens when American culture is anti-intellectual and much of the electorate takes a stubborn pride in being ignorant.; September 18, 2008 6:47 PM
Vernon said...: "Troll, troll, troll"

If you disagree with me you're a troll. Is that how it is? I've only discussed the unfolding issues and given opinion on it. Oh well, think what you like.

Alan-
I posted a response about Fox News on the other thread but it didn't appear. Anyway, since I don't want to type the whole thing again here's the gist of what I said. Fox is oriented right, but do you guys get MSNBC there? Talk about biased, just watch their coverage. They actually had two leftist commentators do the convention coverage until it became apparent that was a mistake and they were pulled off of the desk. CNN seems to be balanced at times, but other times is clearly part of the larger media machine that has a collective "thrill running up their legs".; September 18, 2008 6:47 PM
Mike said...: I <3 Tina Fey!; September 18, 2008 6:48 PM
moondancer said...: Drew

Its not Rendell, though he has a machine, its Obama's campaign. We are counting the votes. Not a sample, the likely votes. You have to visualize the scope of his ground game. Sixty headquarters, phone and door canvass eleven hours a day. We got this state pegged.; September 18, 2008 6:49 PM
Scott said...: Wow, 0.02% chance McCain loses OH/MI?

That's a 0.02% chance that McCain loses those states and still manages to win the election; September 18, 2008 6:49 PM
Sullydog said...: "It's amazing that terms like "Community Organizer" and "Intellectual" are be seen as derogatory."

Obama is a member of the elite intellectual class, and the GOP campaign skewered him for being a community organizer. These are issues that will play with average Americans on election day, to Obama's detriment.; September 18, 2008 6:49 PM
BlueFish said...: I was about to shoot myself....I think this is the happiest day of my life lol; September 18, 2008 6:50 PM
justin32099 said...: "By a margin of 70 to 30 McCain trumps Obama in the expereice score."

Qualified and experienced are different things. Obama has convinced a very large percentage of Democrats, and even a reasonable percentage of Republicans (http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/091008poll1.pdf) that he is qualified to be President. Republican politicans are going on the news and saying Palin isn't qualified.

Obama does have to overcome his experience gap with McCain (which I think he can do with the fact that he has better policies in the view of a majority of Americans). But Palin is the least qualified of the four major candidates and by a country mile. They are shielding her from the media to try to limit the damage.; September 18, 2008 6:50 PM
dogblogger said...: The only "real" thing that changed from yesterday to today in Nate's model is Obama winning Colorado. Yesterday, he was winning the state in 42% of the simulations, today he is winning the state in 64% of the simulations. That is the biggest reason that the overall win % jumped so much. Obama basically went from 264 EV to 273.; September 18, 2008 6:50 PM
Eric said...: Jack Be Nimble said...
Do you think if Obama was going to win, it would be so close in Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin & Pennsylvania? These are all precursors to comfortable electoral landslide for McCain.

Yes I do, that's pure demographics. Obama will win Michigan and would win Virginia and Colorado if the election were held today. He'd probably also win Ohio and possibly Florida, Nevada, Indiana, and or North Carolina, not to mention Iowa and New Mexico.

Those states midwest states are generally close and they like Palin because she reminds them of themselves.; September 18, 2008 6:51 PM
PorridgeGun said...: I've just finished watching the weekly debate program Question Time on the BBC. They spent 10 minutes talking about Palin and how she affects the presidential race. Almost everything the panel said was regurgited nonsense we heard in the American media 2 weeks ago. It was like watching American pundits and political figures talk about British politics. Bizarre.

In the programs defense, it was the first one since the summer break. But still, it was friggin' embarrasing how ignoarnt and utterly clueless the guests were.; September 18, 2008 6:51 PM
Vanessa said...: But the less the media talk about her the more absurd it seems that she's hiding.; September 18, 2008 6:52 PM
MrInsight22 said...: The dasrmatic shift in Obama's win perecntage and average electoral vote tally shows something ids wrong with the methodolgy on this site when you compare the projection here with realclearpolitics.com (Obama has 273 EV); pollster.com, which has dramatically reduced Obama's EVs by moving states into the toss-up column based on the terrible Big Ten poll numbers for Obama in MN, WI, and PA; and electoral-vote.com.

This site should have Obaam's projected EVs around 273 and his win percentage around 55% perhaps, especially given the 538 prrojected popular vote margin is onlly 1/2%.

The excessive movement on this site (which I like very much) may make Obamaphiles happy but doesn't change the objective reality reflected by an overall look at all the projection sites.

Obama is now ahead, but not prohibitively so. All it would take is two good polls in CO for McCain and the current projections would come crashing down.; September 18, 2008 6:52 PM
David said...: You all better realize that these number rely entirely on Colorado, which is being skewed by that +10% poll outlier. Obama still has the "lead", but it's much slimmer than today's polling update implies. Of course that could change...; September 18, 2008 6:52 PM
Albert said...: That seemed to happen rather quickly. Is this resulting from a change in the model? Personally I prefer the more conservative algorithm that takes a couple of days to catch up with the news cycle, this seems like an awfully big jump.; September 18, 2008 6:52 PM
igarvey said...: Obama has only pulled ahead because of one outlier poll that puts him at +10 in Colorado.; September 18, 2008 6:52 PM
The Real Mike Is Back said...: So we are back to the June/July map.

For those rightward in their politics, why the talk about Obama being unmasked soon?
Are you counting on Obama to fall on his face?
Do you think that there is any more mileage out of Rezko/Ayers/Wright?
Are you looking for a deeper link between Obama and the failures of Fannie and Freddie?
What evidence is there of the Bradley effect?; September 18, 2008 6:53 PM
Cugel said...: Have you noticed that so long as McCain was leading in the polls, the trolls were almost civil?

The MINUTE Obama moved back into the lead suddenly they turn vicious. The angst and bile must be getting to them.

As for the state polling, by next Monday it will begin to catch up with the national polls.

Most state polls are released once a week and reflect a longer collection period. Most state polls released this week were taken during the height of McCain's convention bounce and the idiotic "Palin's a celebrity" crap.

Well, unless Sarah releases a sex video, or snags a spot on America's Top Model, I'd say her days as a "superstar" are limited. There's a short shelf-life for media darlings these days.

Notice how an ability to "field dress a moose" doesn't seem terribly relevant right now? Having a "nice family" and a "charming personal biography" and being a "hockey mom" just doesn't cut it anymore.; September 18, 2008 6:53 PM
Bill P. said...: John McCain alone is to blame for trading his 'hero POW' reputation for one of lying lowlife ready to say or do anything to be elected.

President Barack Hussein Obama.

You will respect him if you love America.; September 18, 2008 6:53 PM
Eric said...: Tim Kaine, Mark Warner, and Jim Webb and next Obama. Virginia is going blue. The 2 polls that make it look Red are garbage from what I can tell. They did not poll the state properly from my assessment.; September 18, 2008 6:54 PM
Simon said...: "Obama has only pulled ahead because of one outlier poll that puts him at +10 in Colorado."

Anybody who reads this site consistently knows that one poll from one state is not going to change the whole dynamic of the projection. The reason the model spiked today is because it finally caught up with the recent Obama uptick after it confirmed that it was real and not just noise.; September 18, 2008 6:55 PM
Vernon said...: Eric-
Good analysis. (See, Vanessa, would a "troll" compliment someone with drastically different opinions?) I think that there are compelling aspects of what you say. It's just weird to me that places like Wisconsin and Michigan are close. I don't see McCain winning them, but to be within a point or two after the recent fallout is counterintuitive. I'm curious to see more polling.
Vern/Vanessa 2012
The Real Cross-Party Bi-Partisan Solution!; September 18, 2008 6:55 PM
Silent Cal said...: What? No way!!! I'm from [X state] and they totally polled my state wrong. Here in [unrepresentative town] nobody's voting for that guy. This site sux!!1!; September 18, 2008 6:56 PM
Albert said...: "JW Mason said...

Can we all agree now that dropping the convention adjustment was a mistake?"

Yes. I don't understand why so many people were pushing to drop it, it almost perfectly anticipated the convention effects. We could have prevented a few cases of high blood pressure. :|; September 18, 2008 6:56 PM
Eric said...: David said...
You all better realize that these number rely entirely on Colorado, which is being skewed by that +10% poll outlier. Obama still has the "lead", but it's much slimmer than today's polling update implies. Of course that could change...

This is true, but I believe Obama would win Virginia if the elction were held today. Two outlier polls screw up the math indicating it's Red. They both have internals that are a mess. They're worthless polls as far as I can tell.; September 18, 2008 6:56 PM
Sullydog said...: Hey, guys, I get the sense that you might be lumping me into the wrong demographic. lest there be any misunderstanding vis-a-vis my tofu-vs-steak outlook...

I _like_ tofu.

I support Obama. I've already sent him several hundred dollars and I plan to work for him on election day.

I'm just not kidding myself, and I'm not taking false assurance from the polls. A nation that can re-elect George W. Bush and then go ga-ga over a joke like Sarah Palin cannot be expected to vote in its own interest--and for a black man with the middle name "Hussein" at that.

Confronted by a choice between what's good for them and another plate of chili cheese fries, you can count on Middle America to double down on their own arteries.

We are an aggressively stupid nation.; September 18, 2008 7:01 PM
ainsley said...: Thank the Lord for people like PeteKent. You're gonna give Obama the election buddy. The kind of delusion it takes to support policies a majority of the country rejects is phenomenal.

That's just the beginning. Think Obama doesn't have endgame surprises up his sleeve?

You must have been too busy snoring through the Red Primary to pay attention to the unprecendented asswhoopin Obama gave the Clintons.

Your gift to us is your narrow-mindedness, delusion, and inability to acknowledge when it's time to take a different course.

How's that Hagel diss on your cheerleader feelin'?

You guys need to pay more attention to how Obama handled the primaries. 'Cause if you did, you'd realize that so far this is cakewalk, and there's bound to be more hurt comin'.

Oh, and why's your cheerleader cancelling all her events now?

pout.; September 18, 2008 7:01 PM
David said...: "Anybody who reads this site consistently knows that one poll from one state is not going to change the whole dynamic of the projection."

That's true for the national trackers. The model is much more sensitive to recent state polls.

Just look at the "tipping point". For CO, it's 63%. I've never seen another state go over 40%. It's no coincidence that the overall win percentage is almost identical to the CO win percentage, and the single major reason that CO went from being a slight favorable for McCain to a 2-to-1 blowout for Obama overnight is due to one highly favorable poll.; September 18, 2008 7:02 PM
senatorinuyasha said...: I never quite understood this hockey mom fascination. I thought this was NASCAR country?; September 18, 2008 7:03 PM
Alex S. said...: There are a lot of ignorant posts about Nate´s model here. It´s not only the +10 Colorado poll. See also how Ohio and Virginia are almost toss-ups. Look at the national polls that have an influence on the Super Tracker and that pushes Obama´s trendline higher. No more 10% chance that McCain might win California or something. Yes, it´s only Colorado that has flopped...but flopping here means not 0 or 1, it´s not a binary model. It just means that it´s above 50% for Obama, and over the course of today, every state has Obama doing better now than yesterday.... The model is still unchanged!; September 18, 2008 7:05 PM
NC_voter said...: LMAO @ the trolls who keep claiming that Rezko/Wright/Ayers are suddenly going to be "huge issues". Just like I predicted, you've gone back to your old and useless non-issue based talking points, ever since your "FUNDAMENTAL SHIFT!!11!" BS went down in flames.

Take comfort Obama supporters, the fact that they are insisting that Ayers/Wright/Rezko is juuuuuussst about to break (unlike the countless times they've been wrong since May) means they have nothing of substance, and are simply parroting talking points.

You can't win with an issue based narrative, there is simply no way (barring the start of a close-to-home international conflict, of course). People are going to look at their foreclosure notices and rising health care costs and are going to realize which party allowed this to happen. That's what you guys realized in July when j-mac and the rove boyz started pumping out the celebrity ads. What you didn't realize is that the diminishing return rate would finally catch up to you, especially once the Obama camp got some balls. That's why you brought in the Barracuda - and it worked as long as the honeymoon lasted. And guess what, it's officially over, and issues are front and center again. And will most likely continue that way through the debates.

The GOP is in serious trouble if they don't win in '08. The long term shift in demographics heavily favors the dems. Hopefully you will see this as an opportunity to get your act together, or otherwise, you're going to be out of power for a long time. My suggestion? Kick out the religious fundies and neocons that have ruined what once was a truly great party with great ideals.; September 18, 2008 7:06 PM
JJ said...: "Just a temporary blip on the radar screen.. lets see how Nobamas numbers do when Rezko stands in front of the judge to hear his prison sentence just before the election. That will start another major media cycle and we will watch his numbers plummet.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tony_Rezko"

Nice spin, but that link includes

"In October 2006, Rezko was indicted along with REPUBLICAN FUNDRAISER and businessman Stuart Levine on charges of wire fraud, bribery, money laundering, and attempted extortion as a result of a federal investigation known as "Operation Board Games"."

I would not hold my breath in hoping that case untarnishes the Republican "old boy club" brand, asrtiularly with the amount of lobiests in McCains camp. Try not to make your panic BLIND panic nest time.; September 18, 2008 7:06 PM
InkStain said...: The 2.5 point change in the national tracker has a much bigger effect on the model's projection of Colorado than a single state poll does.; September 18, 2008 7:07 PM
Vernon said...: McCain does have an economic plan, but it obviously hasn't gotten a lot of attention with all the lipstick-gate and foreign issues focus. His focus is on reforming government and fighting earmarks, while simplifying the tax code and working on the energy crisis we face in this country. I for one am not sold on his plan, but I haven't studied it that much. I'm also not sure about Obama's plan although I like some aspects of it. (See Vanessa, "trolls" don't compliment the person they're supposedly against). I do think that socialized health care would be a nightmare (think of the DMV controlling your doctor's visit) which is a strike against Obama for me, but something many Democrats are fighting hard for. As a small business owner I like McCain's plan more than Obama's but I'm also not a big free trade person so Obama gets the nod in that area. But more than anything character matters to me and a guy who fought for this country has a lot more draw than someone who has consistently spoken ill of our country in speeches around the world.
Vern/Vanessa 2012
Different Viewpoints For a Better World; September 18, 2008 7:08 PM
Albert said...: Quite frankly, I agree with Sullydog. I love me some 538, but I think that the entire exercise is fundamentally misunderstanding American politics. Following polls and reactions is all well and good for us political junkies, but what matters is the real, true undecideds. The 5% who don't even think about the election until they're in the voting booth. I think that group is STILL going to say, "Obama who?", and vote for McCain on Nov. 5th.; September 18, 2008 7:10 PM
Tyler said...: I think I can finally start un-bunching my panties now - that is until I start thinking about the economy...; September 18, 2008 7:10 PM
John said...: update already! my class gets out in 20 minutes. sheesh.; September 18, 2008 7:10 PM
ainsley said...: Also, the handwringing re MN and WI is unfounded and unnecessary, as anyone from the region would tell you.

States like WI and MN actually have people who pay close attention to the elections and the platforms and are open to discussion. Closeness of polls reflect snaphots of public discussion than actual voting preference.

We're talking Scandinavians here. Strong DFL turfs.

And Pawlenty's not exactly a plus for McCain either.

At worst all Obama would need to do would be to have a couple of rallies and he'd be fine.; September 18, 2008 7:11 PM
Eric said...: PeteKent said...
Small wonder that Palin's negatives have gone up. She has endured the most relentless attacksd over the past few weeks.

Palin is a joke. Please try not to pretend that's not true. I can accept an argument that it won't matter. After all Dan Quayle got elected. So did GW Bush, twice! But, if you've watched Palin much, it's close to impossible to refute. The media felt guilty and the bar was set so low that when she gave a good speech and people liked it they pandered. But, they're not dumb, they soon realized they were right all along. She has no qualifications whatsoever. There are probably at least 20, maybe more, Republican women that many people could name off the top of their head that are qualified. She's not even close. I'd guess there are actually over 1000 Republican women in the US that are more qualfied. Ben Stein and Chuck Hagel realize this. McCain has to overcome:

#1 Palin is a joke
#2 He knows nothing about the economy

Gigantic mountain to hurdle.

All that being said, expectations will be so low for her in the debate, that the country could be reenamored with her if she does well there and that could spur McCain to victory. It doesn't take away from the fact that she doesn't have one qualfication for the job. She's not a true reformer and doesn't know much about energy. Please tell me you saw the town hall meeting yesterday. My lord!; September 18, 2008 7:12 PM
Sullydog said...: What John just said. We're dyin' out here, Nate!; September 18, 2008 7:13 PM
Sid said...: Like others have said, its not because of an outlier poll in CO that his win % went up so dramatically (although that might be part of it). A couple days ago, Nate said he made the model more sensitive to the national polls so that it could pick up quicker movements in the polls as we get closer to election day.; September 18, 2008 7:14 PM
Danny said...: David, you are fundamentally incorrect (surprise, surprise!)

It wasn't just one poll- remember that the national polls have an effect too, and they have come in much strongly for Obama in the last few days, and Nate's model is deliberately slow to adopt changes.

Today was a confluence of those, and your opinion has no factual basis in terms of the actual methodology of the site or the numbers themselves.

As for the BS about framing McCain and Obama, remember this:
One man in this race is the only son/grandson of two four-star Admirals and also happened to finish fifth from the bottom of his Navy class. Yet he still got to progress despite his terrible academic record, disciplinary record, and flight record.

One man in this race left school in a mountain of debt and only got out of it recently.

One man is an admitted adulterer who left his wife (after cheating on her while they were married) and quickly married an heiress.

Hey Pete and the Trolls, you pick your frame, and I get to use facts. Sound fair?; September 18, 2008 7:14 PM
David said...: Regardless of the reason for CO being so strong for Obama today, you can't deny, giving that Nate's model has CO as a tipping point state 63% of the time, that his win/lose percentage relies almost entirely on CO. Given that the other CO poll out today has O+1, it might be a bit early to be celebrating.; September 18, 2008 7:15 PM
Jack-be-nimble said...: Poll: GOP brand making comeback

"The findings come as the Gallup Poll recently found that the Democratic generic lead among voters, when asked which party they prefer to control Congress, has withered to only 3 points, 48 to 45 percent. Democrats had a double-digit generic congressional advantage on the eve of the midterm elections."

Looks like GOP will take the house too.

Courtesy of Pew & Politico; September 18, 2008 7:15 PM
boulder-liberal said...: Years from now, when the historians review why John McCain lost the 2008 election, two things will stand out:

1. "The fundamentals of the economy are strong."

2. "I can see Russia from my house."; September 18, 2008 7:16 PM
ainsley said...: Albert, those undecideds are not quite as important this time around. At least not as important as in 2004. Not for Obama anyway.

His campaign has made the new voter registration unprecendented and because it's under the radar and not sexy enough for sound bites and backa nd forth rhetoric, it goes largely ignored.

The voter registration is his campaign's way of buffering against the hold-outs. He knows the percentages. He knows they'll break for Gramps.

But how many have been registered in VA this year? 400,000? 5? I forget. It doesn;t matter. Those numbers make the hold-outs irrelevant.; September 18, 2008 7:16 PM
Eric said...: Ainsley, good to hear. What is your perception then of why McCain seems to be doing well in Minnesota and Wisconsin. He shouldn't be on the merits. If Obama is ahead 4 points ationally, it seems he should be ahead 6-10 points in wisconsin and Minnesota. My guess is it's perosnality related. Perhaps, you're saying Obama isn't closing the deal with them yet. I definitely believe Obama's next stop should be those two states. He should probably spend 2-3 days out of the next 45 doing rallies in each.; September 18, 2008 7:16 PM
Vernon said...: Nate's model seems pretty solid in a lot of ways. I think that it tracks changes in momentum fairly accurately. Everyone decries the things that don't fit their pre-existing beliefs but averaged out it's a fairly accurate system.; September 18, 2008 7:17 PM
draNgNon said...: Whoa. Was that siren just to provoke a frothing unreasoned discussion in the commentary? Judging from the last couple days it's not necessary, that happens all by itself. >.<

Meanwhile, I will be interested to hear your take on this Nate. Glancing at the poll results, I'm thinking a lot of it is bad news for Obama and he will have to defend a lot more states than he was hoping he'd have to (looking at trends in WI, PA, OR, MN) and VA isn't nearly as close to flipping as people were talking.

IN is a fantastic result for Obama, but I suspect an outlier no matter what Selzer's reputation is.

Lastly, the polls for OH are sorted in wrong order, you should flip Ras and Bigten.; September 18, 2008 7:17 PM
sporcupine said...: Oh, to finish a really rough few hours (car brakes, very ill friend), and come home to 538 and that flashing light! I needed that.

Now, imagine a 14-year-old-boy, never interested in sports, suddenly mesmerized by the electoral college. Over my shoulder, that kid has been studying your map, thinking through which states have moved and how stable they will be in the remaining weeks.

This site rocks.; September 18, 2008 7:18 PM
pakaal said...: Sullydog said...

"Obama is the Harvard intellectual. McCain is the Annapolis maverick."

OK, intellectual capability vs "Hey, at least I didn't finish last." Check.

"Obama is the "community organizer." McCain is the War Hero POW."

OK, helping those around him, vs being shot down by Vietnamese and imprisoned. One is a choice, the other was unfortunate circumstance and triumph of human spirit. Your point?

"Obama is wind farms, for Chrissake. McCain is Drill Here Drill Now."

Umm, this one stands as is, for obvious reasons.

"Obama's VP is an old senator from...Delaware? McCain's is a Moose-hunting hockey mom from the last American frontier."

Obama picked a running mate. Apparently as of the news today, so has Gov. Palin. Lucky John, I'm sure he'll make a great VP!

"Obama is tofu. McCain is steak and potatoes."

Both are omnivores. Interesting, I had no idea food choices was a determining factor in voting for one candidate or the other.

"I just think it's a stretch that...."

Keep thinking, I encourage that much in you, at least. You might get it eventually.; September 18, 2008 7:18 PM
Jay said...: It's funny how so many people assume "Obama is strong on the economy, McCain is strong on foreign policy."

Obama's attempts to tie McCain to the economic crash really aren't sticking in my mind and I don't see him as the clear winner.

Obama is, however, miles ahead in foreign policy. McCain's black & white worldview is bellicose, naive, and dangerous. He continues to be wrong on Iraq. It's the reason I'm voting Obama.; September 18, 2008 7:19 PM
Sid said...: david - again, as many have pointed out in previous days, Obama's win% in CO was probably lower than it should be because of the national polls in McCain's favor. Even though poll after poll had Obama maintaining his lead during the RNC bounce, the model selected McCain more likely to win because of the national polls.

Is his current win% largely due to his win% in CO? Yes. But that is still because of the national polls, not a single outlier state poll.; September 18, 2008 7:19 PM
Pssst said...: @Sullydog ---

Pakaal (above) says it better, but I'll have a go too:

Guys, I just don't believe it.

Obama is the Harvard intellectual. McCain is the Annapolis maverick.

Obama worked himself up from a single-parent family on food stamps to the top of the Ivy League. That is pretty damn brilliant. McCain, on the other hand, was born into a family of admirals and yet was a terrible student. He may have been a maverick in the past, but not now that he votes with Bush almost all the time. As Bob Casey said, "that's not a maverick, that's a sidekick."

Obama is the "community organizer." McCain is the War Hero POW.

No one denies McCain's experiences as a POW. But Obama has shown great character too --- such as his decision to turn down a career as a wealthy corporate lawyer in order to serve the rest of us as a community organizer. It's outrageous that you mock his service to our country.

Obama is wind farms, for Chrissake. McCain is Drill Here Drill Now.

Wind power is part of a sensible plan for clean, sustainable, made-in-the-USA energy future. Drill Here Drill Now is a gimmick.

Obama's VP is an old senator from...Delaware? McCain's is a Moose-hunting hockey mom from the last American frontier.

If you have a problem with "old senators" you should check out the top of your ticket. And McCain's running mate is the flimsiest gimmick I've ever seen in politics.

Obama is tofu. McCain is steak and potatoes.

I think we're looking at the ultimate Bradley effect here.

I just think it's a stretch that America is going to pass on an American hero to put Barack Hussein Obama in the White House.

You know what? You've just illuminated the only reason why this race is even close. McCain can't win on issues. He can't win on policies. He should be waaay behind in this election. The only reason he's still hanging on is that his supporters consistently try to paint Obama as elitist and foreign.

That's why you describe Obama as "tofu"... That's why you emphasize Obama's middle name... Make the dumb voters think he's a foreigner. Make the ignorant voters think he's a Muslim. The way you try and trick people --- it just makes me sick.

You ought to be ashamed of yourself.; September 18, 2008 7:20 PM
Sid said...: should be "McCain more likely to win CO because of the national polls [during the RNC bounce] in my previous post.; September 18, 2008 7:20 PM
Observer said...: To both sides: I am in the thick of the fray on the issues afflicting the economy. The economic storm has been gathering since August '07. It may not be at the extreme height that we have seen this week. But it will continue well past Nov. 4. There Will be more bank failures (bet on it). There Will be more high-profile business bankruptcy filings. And the effort to get out from under the liquidity, capital, and credit crunches in the financial sector will continue, and continue to drag down consumer confidence. When those voters get in the booth on Nov 4, they aren't going to be thinking about 'war hero' vs 'community organizer.'
They're going to be thinking 'do we want this to continue.' I'm confident they will say no. I just hope I'm not broke by then.; September 18, 2008 7:21 PM
Kevin said...: Oh, jeez, it's about time. I have no fingernails left.; September 18, 2008 7:25 PM

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9.18.2008

Obama Pulls Ahead in Electoral College Projection

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