So I've spent the past couple of days at meetings of various kinds in New York, and there was certainly a sense of impeding doom among many Democrats here. The cute analogy that I've come up with are that Democrats are like Cubs fans -- they assume that something will go wrong until proven otherwise.
With that said, people have become decidely more optimistic in the past 24-48 hours as the economy has returned to the center of the national debate. Obama's never going to be a Clintonesque natural out there on the stump in responding to the economy -- he might have to repeat a message three times where with Clinton it would have sunken in the first one.
But McCain seems to be struggling to come up with anything coherent to say about the issue, and his "fundamentals of our economy are strong" statement was a capital-G gaffe. When I saw McCain and Palin give successive speeches on MSNBC on Monday morning, and McCain repeated his "fundmentals" line and then Palin repeated her "thanks, but no thanks" line on the Bridge to Nowhere, I got the sense that maybe Steve Schmidt isn't quite the messaging genius that he's been made out to be.
-------
Couple of quick notes:
ARG is supposed to release a big series of 25+ state polls at some point within the next 24 hours.
And for those of you in Chicago, I may try to make it to Scott Kleeb's fundraiser at the Billygoat Tavern tonight, though it depends on when the Cubs game finishes up.
9.17.2008
Morning Musings
by Nate Silver @ 9:55 AM
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889 comments
Do the Democrats have a presence on the Ground in West Virginia?
More bad news for our financial markets today -- http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/18/business/18morgan.html?hp
bjb, you´re right i have no phone.
The scent of desperation in bjb1968's power/phone outage biasing the polls is skunking up the site.
Somebody open a window.
Obama stole my phone.
I'll admit I'm not very financially saavy... does this WaMu news have any impact on people who have credit cards with the company?
Horrible or not, at least they're polling the right states!
Nationally, I don't believe the flooding/outages are a major polling effect.
In Ohio? I find it credible. But doesn't sampling include geographic adjustments?
Realistxxx,
They just don't get it, when the campaign is about issues they lose ground. Actually the McCain gets it, as Davis admiited the other week that the campaign would not be about issues. McCain did everything in the world to distract from issues the last 2 weeks. The financial crash the last couple of days has blown his cover.
True assmole, ARG was the biggest polling letdown in a while.
bjb, you´re right i have no phone.
September 17, 2008 4:17 PM
"realistxxx said...
The scent of desperation in bjb1968's power/phone outage biasing the polls is skunking up the site.
Somebody open a window."
You stay with that...
With all due respect, topshelf, you said this: "What's going to look worse, Palin using a personal email for govt business or democrats hacking her account?"
You asked a two choice question. One of those choices was inherently false. You know this to be true, and yet, you propagated it.
But I'm even willing to look beyond that because you said "What's going to look worse." I assume you mean that in the eyes of the average American undecided voter. I'll put it to you this way: If someone commits a crime, the first thing you and me and average American undecided voters want to find out is who did it. And when they realize it's a bunch of anarchist kids, the likelihood of those voters linking those kids to the Democrats or Barack Obama is small.
No disrespect intended whatsoever. If you can clear something up, I'm happy to hear a response from you.
topsh, i think Mason-Dixon is better.
Bill P...
I said something very similar earlier. I'm with you on that.
Kudos to you. True American.
Now wonder WI is starting to trend Rep "Thirty-seven percent (37%) of Wisconsin voters say Governor Jim Doyle, a Democrat, is doing a good or excellent job, but 31% rate his performance as poor."
Now wonder WI is starting to trend Rep "Thirty-seven percent (37%) of Wisconsin voters say Governor Jim Doyle, a Democrat, is doing a good or excellent job, but 31% rate his performance as poor."
bjb1968 said...
bjb, you´re right i have no phone.
September 17, 2008 4:17 PM
"realistxxx said...
The scent of desperation in bjb1968's power/phone outage biasing the polls is skunking up the site.
Somebody open a window."
You stay with that...
-----------------
Dario' also posted right after that Obama stole his phone.
My phone is working fine and none of these pollsters called me. The polls are biased! BIASED, I tell you!
"The real mike"
Yes, I agree that the Obama camp had nothing to do with it. And I agree with your crime analogy, but you're still giving the American voter too much credit. You assume 1) That they're going to believe that those kids had nothing to do with the Obama campaign. 2) That they're going to believe that's who's actually behind it. 3) That they're going to hear about who's actually behind it. 4) That it's still not going to sound "fishy" to them.
If it came out tomorrow that Nixon had no clue, NO CLUE, about watergate do you think people would all of a sudden think he was wronged?
1. The 4 million Texans without power around Houston the last few days have probablly reduced McCain numbers by a point or two in the tracking polls.
2. RCP links to a CNU poll showing McCain up 9 in Virginia, bringing him back ahead in that state. That poll shows Warner ahead by the same margin as other pollsters so its sample seems normal.
Scott: My semi-educated best guess is that in the coming days, whoever gains control of WaMu's credit card line will address cardholders. It depends who has it - but say Bank of America takes it over - I would think your credit is still honored. You may get a new card and new conditions may apply, but I don't think *your* personal credit is affected.
@topshelf:
I understood you fine, I just don't agree. My point dealt with the perception of the incident - if McCain/miscellaneous Republicans try to paint it as a Dem job, the Democrats can easily point to the extensive online record showing who did it, and their track record as equal opportunity assholes. Anonymous has gotten quite a bit of press before this - I believe they were profiled on Dateline about a year ago, and they've been attacking Scientology sites and even protesting them in real life for quite awhile as well.
My point addressed the fact that the charges won't stick - stop pretending I must lack reading comprehension or be a fool to disagree with you.
If I give the American voter too much credit, maybe I should run for office!
Oh, God. No way.
That was an intelligent reply to my inquiry, topshelf. We just disagree. That certainly does not mean I'm going to call you a thousand names. I think the number will be small and you think it will be higher. That's fair.
um, i think who's president and how the economy takes on are a tad linked. You don't really 'trade' one for the other.
Why shouldn’t Obama win a close one in Ohio? Bush won by only 2% (120,000 votes) in 2004, and that’s when he was still popular. Since then, the Dems swept state elections in 2006 (won the governor’s mansion and a senate seat), the GOP’s popularity has taken a hit across the board, and the Dems have registered thousands of new voters. Ohio has lots of cities, university towns and a decent sized African American population that will be pumped up to vote Obama.
@marc
you're still assuming the 4 points I posted earlier.
But I'll apologize for the name calling. It was wrong of me, sometimes I get a little worked up but still no excuse.
Does anyone have any polling dates on that CNU poll from Virginia?
VIRGINIA IS RED AGAIN ON RCP!
MCCAIN +9!
This is funny Marie...
I hear the interested parties to buy WaMu are Wells Fargo and Citicorp
assmole - I wasn't implying that...I think the administration is part of the economic equation.
I meant more like - if it was a rational, feasible thing, I would trade that. :)
Palin used and told her staff not to use government emails addresses for governemnt business to avoid potential subpeonas. This was al ong held practice she had. It seems like an attempt to cover wrong doing ahead of time. The fact that they were trying to hold 1100 emails regarding goverement business in her admin is troubling. She even tried to claim executive priviledge, despite the fact that she forwarded some emails regarding governemnt business to her husband. Once she forwards them to a non-government employee all claims of privildge are lost whether it is private or governemnt email account. There is clear there is something in those 1100 emials they don't want released.
Thanks Darien and Marie.
I may argue with you in the future, Darien, but it will always be with underlying respect.
congratulations: ...Virginia Woolf?
I love how this Christopher Newport University Poll (CNU) for VA is being given so much wwight here and in RCP.
Christopher Newport University??? I mean c'mon.
Isn't this one of Palin's 5 universities she attended in 6 years to get her jounalism degree?
Seriously, who the f**k are CNU pollsters?
Anybody... Bueller?
Does anyone have any polling dates on that CNU poll from Virginia?
jbentley,
Also, OH has early voting this year for the first time. Obama GOTV is already organized for that.
CNU is one of the public universities in the state system.
Actually, CNU polling in virginia reminds me of Franklin and Marshall polling in Pennsylvania.
Also, OH has early voting this year for the first time. Obama GOTV is already organized for that.
Isn't it early voting WITH same-day registration for the first week or something like that?
dariencrow - Things are bad at Citi, but not as bad as some of the others...one of my co-workers called Lehman "not the prettiest girl at the party" a few weeks ago. But Citi isn't looking wonderful today - my God.
And get this: Morgan Stanley considers merger with Wachovia!!
Craziness.
And get this: Morgan Stanley considers merger with Wachovia!!
Maybe it's time to move some money into local banks?
@topshelf
No worries, it's the Internet...only time will tell which way this goes.
I am beginning to appreciate my crappy DC metro area bank more and more...
Yes OH has same day registration and voting. The Republican will be dong there best to suppress the vote just like their MI foreclosure crap and the lie told to UVA students that they would lose thier finamacial aid if they were out of state and switched. The Repub attempt to suppress voting is despicable.
Small/local banks: that doesn't mean anything - tons of small banks fail all the time. We just don't hear about it 'cause it rarely makes national news.
For the sake of full disclosure: I have Bank of America for checking; credit card with Citi; trading account at Scottrade.
Morgan Stanley and Wachovia. Proving the old adage that two wrongs don't make a right.
It's a sad day when holding your money in the most reputable banks of the land becomes less sensible than converting it all into gold bars and stuffing them under your mattress.
Does anyone have any polling dates on that CNU poll from Virginia?
the real mike is back: No, but they might make one too-big-to-fail wrong. :-/
Listen folks. I attend college. These Obama supporters are actively registering kids to vote. But I ask these kids who they are voting for, more than half of them say, despite being registered recently, they don't care and/or will not vote.
The ONLY way Obama wins Ohio is if it is 70 degrees, sunny, and college kids get extra credit for voting, otherwise Ohio is like Florida, a Red State by 4 points.
"The ONLY way Obama wins Ohio is if it is 70 degrees, sunny, and college kids get extra credit for voting, otherwise Ohio is like Florida, a Red State by 4 points."
ROFL Soooo true!
michael: I'm sure Obama will find some incentives to lure their lazy butts out to the polling stations in November.
The Real Mike Is Back said...
Actually, CNU polling in virginia reminds me of Franklin and Marshall polling in Pennsylvania.
------------------
That may be true, but does anyone have any facts about their polling bona fides?
I've heard of F&M and polling and it is a very good school to boot.
CNU, first time I ever heard of them.
Seriously, I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt, but nobody seems to know a damn thing about them.
RCP has the dates for the CNU poll at 09/10 to 09/14. Seems a really long time span to be polling just 500 RVs.
Does anyone have any polling dates on that CNU poll from Virginia?
The article just says "last week." Either way, it's pre-McCain flop.
"Now wonder WI is starting to trend Rep "Thirty-seven percent (37%) of Wisconsin voters say Governor Jim Doyle, a Democrat, is doing a good or excellent job, but 31% rate his performance as poor.""
Yeah, so it's net +6 for Doyle, whats your point? Is you point that Wisconsin will probably by net +6 Obama, if so you're going to be fairly correct. I know my state well, and I can assure you all that Wisconsin will be blue this election just by looking at the results of the previous elections, the registration numbers, and the changes in demographics. Having the largest University in the nation (UW-Madison 50,000 students) helps to get out those student volunteers also. Go Badgers!
I just found them. September 10-14.
Interesting.
Question On History:
Did Mondale ever hold a lead over Reagan during the 1984 campaign? And if so, when?
Christopher Newport University is an excellent public University. I don't know about their polling, but they are a legit school (about on the level of James Madison University). It's not a degree mill.
That's discouraging. I voted the first election I could!!
Give the kids some credit. Come on. We'll see how it plays out.
hmmm i don't think that's the real mule rider...
CNU poll was taken Sept. 10-14.
http://www.dailypress.com/news/dp-now-presidential-election-polls-virginia,0,5502132.story
ya, he's a fakie.
I loved reading the Liberals on here cry for joy when Obama took the lead in today's gallup poll. Whoopdy freaking do!!!!!!!
MCCAIN PALIN 2008
---Because the electoral map is the only thing that matters!
new post with all the polls up!
heading home from work now, though...
VC! We missed you, buddy!
Well Bill P.
Us Americans are always at our best in times of crisis.
If you ever make it to Las Vegas I would be honored to buy you dinner. :)
IF Nate or Sean do not start a new thread soon, this site may get it's first 1000+ Post.
Almost to 900 now...
a busy, busy day.
but a GREAT day to be on Team Obama !!!
McCain has clearly regressed to his national high mean & appears headed back to his median #'s in the lower 40's [42/44]
meanwhile Obama is trending UP & appears to be back at his median in the mid/upper 40's but maybe headed closer to 49/50% nationally.
Another good day indeed !!!
OK, leave the partisan analysis and the schoolyard taunting out of this. How, realistically, do you feel about your candidate of choice in regards to how the EV map stacks up for him and how he has formed his narrative? I'm curious to read the range of replies.
VirginiaConservative (The Real One) said...
Christopher Newport University is an excellent public University. I don't know about their polling, but they are a legit school (about on the level of James Madison University). It's not a degree mill.
-----------------
Thanks, VC and welcome back.
Weird number compared to everybody else and then from an unknown pollster makes you wonder.
Welcome back VC
Having the largest University in the nation (UW-Madison 50,000 students)...
The 66,000 Sun Devils of Arizona State say hi.
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/local/articles/2008/09/03/20080903b1talker0903.html
shadowguidex,
"Having the largest University in the nation (UW-Madison 50,000 students) helps to get out those student volunteers also."
Get your facts right:
Ranking University Location Enrollment
1 The Ohio State University (Columbus campus) Columbus, Ohio 52,586 [1]
2 University of Florida Gainesville, Florida 51,725 [2]
3 Arizona State University (Tempe campus) Tempe, Arizona 51,481 [1]
4 University of Minnesota (Twin Cities campus) Minneapolis/Saint Paul, Minnesota 50,883[3]
5 The University of Texas at Austin a[›] Austin, Texas 50,170[4]
6 University of Central Florida a[›] Orlando, Florida 48,699[5]
7 Texas A&M University a[›] College Station, Texas 46,542[6]
8 Michigan State University East Lansing, Michigan 46,045[7]
9 The Pennsylvania State University (University Park campus) University Park, Pennsylvania 43,252[8]
10 University of Wisconsin–Madison Madison, Wisconsin 42,041[9]
I have said this before and I will say it again, it is my firm belief that young people will turn out to vote. I think they are the elephant in the room in this election. could be an extra 3-4% to Obama in all these polls (at least in certain areas, I am assuming its going to be a localised trend rather than nationwide).
A lot of elections are won by planning for what hasn't happened before.
"OK, leave the partisan analysis and the schoolyard taunting out of this. How, realistically, do you feel about your candidate of choice in regards to how the EV map stacks up for him and how he has formed his narrative? I'm curious to read the range of replies."
Historically, most elections in the last century have been landslides electorally. The last two cycles, and the 1960 and 1916 elections are not the norm. So, since all election polling for the entire century tend to make all elections look close, I ask myself one question. Which candidate is more likely to have a landslide victory? Theres your eventual winner after all the smoke has cleared.
Thanks Darien! Same here should you find yourself in Seattle.
Dude my wife's from Bellingham. Lot's of family! :)
University of Minnesota is bigger. They have a Twin Cities campus, with 50,000, and an Agricultural campus, which is also in the Twin Cities. For some reason, they get counted separately.
"shadowguidex,
"Having the largest University in the nation (UW-Madison 50,000 students) helps to get out those student volunteers also."
Get your facts right:"
Madison shares classes and is intertwined with another local university in Madison, so I lump the numbers together since thats the de facto situation.
PEOPLE, remember the correct #'s to use on this site [when available] are the multi-party splits [not the 2 party summary].
In this cycle that just so happens to favor Obama more than McCain [thanks Barr & Nader]...
For instance, look at the handful of CNN/Time polls out today. FL goes from a tie to Obama +4 [just above the MOE]. I live in FL & that seems reasonable that Barr & Nader might cost McCain this state in a close election:
CNN / TIME / ORC
9/14-16/08
Mode: Live Telephone Interviews
(source)
Florida (907 RV, 3.5%)
McCain 48, Obama 48 [even]
Obama 48, McCain 44, Nader 4, Barr 1, McKinney 1 [Obama +4] <<<<<
Indiana (890 RV, 3.5%)
McCain 51, Obama 45 [M +6]
McCain 48, Obama 43, Nader 4, Barr 2, McKinney 1 [M +5]
North Carolina (910 RV, 3.5%)
McCain 48, Obama 47 [M +1]
MCain 46, Obama 45, Nader 2, Barr 2, McKinney 1 [M +1]
Ohio (913 RV, 3%)
Obama 49, McCain 47 [O +2]
(9/2: Obama 47, McCain 45)
Obama 46, McCain 44, Nader 4, Barr 2, McKinney 0 [O +2]
(9/2: Obama 45, McCain 44, Nader 5, Barr 2, McKinney 1)
Wisconsin (950 RV, 3%)
Obama 50, McCain 47 [O +3]
Obama 49, McCain 45, Nader 3, Barr 1, McKinney 0 [O +4]
also the spread in WI goes to Obama +4. Those are the #'s that Nate will use.
IF Rasmussen & Gallup & others would poll for all parties, the national trackers would also show a larger Obama lead...
hhmmm - wonder why Scottie R. suppresses the 3rd party results to come through in his 'model' ???
SuperstarJ2ThaR said...
OK, leave the partisan analysis and the schoolyard taunting out of this. How, realistically, do you feel about your candidate of choice in regards to how the EV map stacks up for him and how he has formed his narrative? I'm curious to read the range of replies.
-------------
Good question.
Relative to Gore and Kerry I am much more confident in Obama. He is slow to react sometimes, but when he does it is very effective. I think this fits with his more tactical style. He needs time to plan his next move, but that little bit of time pays off.
Kerry and Gore often reacted both slowly and poorly.
Given that both Kerry and Gore nearly won, I am pretty optimistic about Obama's chances.
GALLUP tracker seems likely to spread further toward a larger Obama lead.
Obama trend has been 45-45-45-46-47-__ ? [my estimate = 48 minimum tomorrow]
McCain 5 day trend is 47-47-47-47-45-__ ? [my estimate = 44 maximum tomorrow]
so that means Obama probably polled at least a 48 [maybe even a 49 today [for the single day] to pull his 3 day average up +1 again, and tomorrow another 45 day drops out.
bad news for the GOPers as Mccain appears to have polled a paltry 43-44 today & he will drop another 47 day from the 3 day average tomorrow. Odds are he will poll another 43-44 and drop to a 44 average on Thursday.
Gallup prediction: 9/18 = O48 - M44
geez that will look very much in line with R2000 & Hotline.
wonder if RR will continue to try to maintain their McCain bubble is still real by additional massaging of the data...
Scottie R. is nothing if not persistent in pushing his agenda driven narrative however
Ahem. Read my lipstsick!
Obama will win:
New Hampshire
Virginia
Michigan
Wisconsin
Iowa
Colorado
New Mexico
Montana
Game over.
I agree with someone who posted last night "wtf Ohio?" Screwed backward and forward by Republicans, they offer up their vote for more. Unbelievable. Those people are hurting big time from job losses. D'oh. How did Bush put it, fool me once? Sorry, you treat me the way you have for the past eight years, and you're out.
McCain can try to pretend he's not Bush and not a Republican, but it's not going to fly. Repubs need to own up to the utter failure of the past 8 years, and especially the first 6 of those years, and not just try to put a pretty wrapper on the same old crap. It stinks. McCain is worse than a flip flopper, he's two-faced. "I was for deregulation before I was against it" On Gramm: "pay no attention to the fact that he wrote my economic policy, you neurotic whiners. The fundamentals of our economy are still strong."
Yup yup.
More lipstick: Ohio's record for picking the win ends this year.
McCain was counting on Palin and other undignified distractions to carry him through til November, but we have the proverbial October surprise in September this year. Finally, it's about issues.
Outside of some really brilliant 527 swiftboating from the McCain camp, this election will continue to be about the economy. What we're seeing this week in the market is going to continue.
By the way, anyone seen Bush lately? Is he such a lame duck as to be irrelevant when it comes to the biggest market disaster most Americans have ever seen in their lives?
Darien -
Cool!! We're in Marysville, so dinner/beer on me next time you're up.
Don't even mention Bush anymore. The White House doesn't even find it worthwhile to make it seem like he's really the one in charge anymore. The pretending was obviously over during the Olympics and the Russia/Georgia conflict.
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