So I've spent the past couple of days at meetings of various kinds in New York, and there was certainly a sense of impeding doom among many Democrats here. The cute analogy that I've come up with are that Democrats are like Cubs fans -- they assume that something will go wrong until proven otherwise.
With that said, people have become decidely more optimistic in the past 24-48 hours as the economy has returned to the center of the national debate. Obama's never going to be a Clintonesque natural out there on the stump in responding to the economy -- he might have to repeat a message three times where with Clinton it would have sunken in the first one.
But McCain seems to be struggling to come up with anything coherent to say about the issue, and his "fundamentals of our economy are strong" statement was a capital-G gaffe. When I saw McCain and Palin give successive speeches on MSNBC on Monday morning, and McCain repeated his "fundmentals" line and then Palin repeated her "thanks, but no thanks" line on the Bridge to Nowhere, I got the sense that maybe Steve Schmidt isn't quite the messaging genius that he's been made out to be.
-------
Couple of quick notes:
ARG is supposed to release a big series of 25+ state polls at some point within the next 24 hours.
And for those of you in Chicago, I may try to make it to Scott Kleeb's fundraiser at the Billygoat Tavern tonight, though it depends on when the Cubs game finishes up.
9.17.2008
Morning Musings
@ 9:55 AM
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Nate,
Could you comment again sometime on how you view ARG as a pollster. They were horrible for much of the Democratic primary season and I still have recovered from my anti-ARG bias formed during the winter and early spring. Was it just the difficulties of polling during the primaries?
Speaking as a Cubs fan...I find this analogy accurate.
TYPO: "of impeding doom."
I love that one, but I think the word should be "impending," not "impeding".
Reuters/Zogby: Obama Takes Back Lead
A new Reuters/Zogby poll shows Sen. Barack Obama regaining his national lead over Sen. John McCain, 47% to 45%.
The same poll just before the political conventions gave McCain a five point lead.
Obama gained ground in the last month among independent and women voters and on the question of who could best manage the faltering U.S. economy.
This before yesterday's real gaffe about how ..."we won't let it happen again..." gets air, or Palin gets called out for another blatant lie about her teleprompter malfunctioning.
If even going into the debates, all BO has to do is show he understands the issues and is ready to lead - after 10 minutes the low info voters change the channel and don't wak up aain until 11/4.
Given that we've just had a slew of Ras polls released, it will soothe my brow for a slew of [insert any other pollster here] polls to supercede them. Looking forward to CO and VA in particular.
They just released the results.
It´s a bad set for Obama- Democrats down 16 in AK, 17 in AZ, 2 in CO, 6 in OH, 11 in NC, 3 in NV, up only 6 in IL.
The good news is that the Dems are still just down 2 in MT, up by 7 in NM and down just 4 in WV.
And the fun result- Obama up 82-13 in DC.
Obama has produced a 2-minute ad on the economy with an obvious appeal to the political center, and to end the extreme positions on the left and the right.
I don't think it's going to do much, not just because it doesn't offer much that's concrete and because ads don't do much anyway, but it's got Obama sitting in coat and tie in a well appointed living or hotel room (de facto: studio?).
Nate, I think you're right on in the comparison to Clinton. This ad won't convey any kind of "I share your pain" message to the "you" out there that Obama is trying to reach.
Well I'm not a sports fan so I will read the "Cubs" analogy as...
Democrats are losers... even if they are winning, and are given every advantage on a silver platter, THEY WILL FIND A WAY TO LOSE. They can't help themselves.
Better?
Hillary said...
Speaking as a Cubs fan...I find this analogy accurate.
ditto - though I will say *this* year does feel different. I am almost (almost!) expecting them to make the world series.
it can be tough being a Cub fan living in St Louis - those are some mean spirited fans, I stopped going to Cubs/Cards games because even if the Cubs won, it was no fun being there. I will say the Cards are optimistic - I got an email from the Cardinals for playoff ticket sales, uh... ya.
Maybe a better baseball analogy - Like Mets fans, watching the wheels come off just like last time.
The ARG polls - they were conducted Sept. 10-13.
Nate, do the dates of the polling figure into your model? That is to say, if a pollster releases a poll a week after it is in the field, do the results apply to the current trend, or do you retroactively factor them into those dates on the supertracker?
After all of the economic news coming out this week, it's obvious we've experienced another major change in the campaign. (The first since the Palin/RNC convention bounce.)
Therefore, I wouldn't put a lot of trust in any polls being released right now. They won't yet reflect how the current shift in narrative from "lipstick" to "economy" is helping or hurting each candidate.
ARG numbers are up - 9/11-9/13. Their party weighting and other internals are somewhat suspect. Dems a 3% edge in CO. Reps a %5 edge in OH? No VA polling. A 4% MOE and 6-8% undecided across the board?
Here's how the Democrats found a way to lose in 2008.
"Okay fellow Dems... we're winning this time, no doubt about it.
So who should we nominate?
I got an idea. Let's nominate Hillary Clinton. She's the most hated woman in America.
Hey I got an idea. Let's nominate a black guy and have them fight over it.
Yeah that sounds good."
"The ARG polls - they were conducted Sept. 10-13."
This backs up my comment even more.
These polls are out-dated upon release.
ARG polls are a joke. Obama is probably down 20 in WV and up 20 in IL. I think they throw a few results in there that look reasonanle but they usually are way off.
Still take what you want from them, I expect the state polls will start turning towards Obama next week.
Obama only +6 in IL? Doubtful. The rest of those ARG polls sound accurate, though I have the same questions about their internals.
Hey, my friend Lindsay works for Kleeb's campaign. I'm consistently dismayed to see your model shows him with a snowball's chance in hell.
I don't trust ARG 100%, as they are usually very off in their numbers (see primaries).
but, if these are accurate, look at LA! McCain up by only seven?? :o
I'm not a big fan of McCain, but you guys have to stop with the hypocritical and partisan railing on him.
You nail him for lying and deceiving in some of his campaign ads that distort his own or Barack Obama's positions. Fair enough.
But when he TELLS THE TRUTH about the fundamentals of the economy being sound, you lose all credibility by slamming him for making a gaffe.
Maybe it's a "gaffe" because it's not what some people want to here, whether they be people who actually are having a rough time of it at the moment, or whether it be bloviating exaggeratory hyperpartisan Democrats who want to use loaded rhetoric and embellish every negative in the economy so that their party can be looked upon more favorably (as an alternative), but the truth remains that by most of metrics we've ever used to describe the "fundamentals" of the economy, we are not in that bad of shape.
Most of the ARG numbers are useless
CO- M-46, O-44, in the range of what we have seen
OH- M-50, O-44
Similar to recent results
NC - M-52, O-41
Middle of recent results
NV - M-49, O-46
Close
NM - M-44, O-51
Good number for Obama
WV - M-49, O-45
Good number for Obama, but not crrdible
IL - M-45, O-51
Good number for McCain but not credible
Nothing really new, I wish they had polled more battleground states, nothing from the midwest?
Mule, agreed.
The fundamentals comment is true - 3.3$ GDP growth, small business adding jobs while big business trims strongly to help profits and a 15% increase in exports - the same exports that are at risk if the administration turns protectionist (see obama demagogery v. nafta, cafta, etc.)
Yet, the media demagoges him for it, the blogs follow suit and its conventional wisdom now that he's "out of touch"
Silly
Here's a promise, Mule. I won't laugh at McCain saying the economy is sound, so long as he promises to keep saying it. Nice and loud. Good luck with that, it's a message that will resonate alright - like a dustbin falling off a cliff.
polls were also conducted Sept 11 through 13
Sept 17 Polling Update with ARG Polls
Cindy McCain's Fallacious Rebuttal
The Red November: An analysis on campaign marketing
They just released the results.
It´s a bad set for Obama- Democrats down...6 in OH...and down just 4 in WV.
Any polling that suggests Obama does better in WV than in OH is suspect to me.
I don't see how the WV and IL results are not credible...most of us seem to think both should be blowouts, but there hasn't been enough polling to indicate. It's not like these fly in the face of the results of more trusted pollsters.
Still, why no MI, MN, PA, VA, WI, IN? I think this can be safely summed up as an anticlimax.
Agreed on ARG - seems like a mixed bag that is not internally consistent state to state.
Matt: Yes the dates figure in. If those polls largely substantiate what the previous polls from those dates indicated, the "new" ones won't change the trend line very much. On the other hand, since polls from a given pollster displace earlier polls from the same pollster, they could have some effect on the trends, in this case driving down Obama's numbers, especially if there also were few other polls in the same state on those dates.
But when he TELLS THE TRUTH about the fundamentals of the economy being sound, you lose all credibility by slamming him for making a gaffe.
That's because 1) his definition of 'fundamentals' is spun, and 2) it's sounds as though he's saying that there is no real crisis, which is absurd and completely the wrong message (sorta like calling people 'whiners').
Here's something I don't get. All the movement in the national polls has been toward Obama, including 4-point leads in the Kos/Research 2000 and Diageo/Hotline polls, and closing to within 1 in the Ras and Gallup polls. On top of that, we have Obama leading the new Reuters/Zogby poll.
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/us_daily_tracking_91315.php
Yet, here at FiveThirtyEight, the national indicators seem to reflect none of this.
On a separate matter, the inaugural "Big Ten" poll of midwestern states will be released at 3:00 Central today.
"The fundamentals comment is true"
That may be, I mean, I don't think the economy is actually going to go down the crapper completely, but did McCain actually explain what he meant by that? If he had given reasons like you did I think he wouldn't have been ridiculed nearly as much. All I heard was that later (after Obama blasted him) he said the American WORKER was what he meant by the fundamentals.
Kind of like Palin on foreign policy, the overwhelming impression I get from hearing him talk is that he doesn't know what the hell he's talking about. He's flatly contradicting his record on regulation and trying to tell the voters what they want to hear (only he isn't doing it very well).
The IL number is credible...Obama is fairly despised in downstate IL...in fact, anywhere outside of Cook County. If the sampling is heavier outside of Cook it would easily explain the number. And honestly, if/when Obama loses the presidential election I expect that he'll lose his Senate seat in the following election which will end a rather undistinguished political career.
Looking forward to the new state polls. I'm interested to see if Obama is able to bounce back.
Its definitely been a surprise to see how much the RNC brought him down.
Reader, McCain is showing some guts by not doing the politically safe "Chicken Little" argument. Isn't that what leadership is, tell the truth not the politically expedient narrative?
In short, McCain IS out of touch and is NOT telling the whole truth.
Being down 16 in Alaska is actually pretty good for Obama considering it was 33 last time.
Both the IL and WV numbers are credible based on 2004 polls around this time (Bush was within 4 of Kerry in IL at the height of the Swift Boat/RNC combo, and Kerry led in WV a few times.)
M+6 in Ohio is the only especially bad one for Obama, and NV M+3 is almost as bad because it closes off one of the paths to 269.
"Yet, here at FiveThirtyEight, the national indicators seem to reflect none of this."
This has been summed up before, but the model is resistant to change....it doesn't understand that the conventions happened, and that's why McCain shot up for a few days. Similar to how in the first few days after the RNC, when all the national trackers had swung in McCain's factor, the trackers here were still giving Obama a 70% chance of winning the election.
If the polling stays where it is now over the next week, the trackers will drift back to even.
Alan,what site is that?
I should add that ARG polls get only a middling weighting for their accuracy, which may be why some here have observed apparently anomalous state to state comparisons in the ARG release.
What`s with ARG? They mostly polled non competitive states, no MI, PA,VA,WI, MN, etc.
Why the hell would they poll DC? Yeah that one is a cliffhanger. These are pretty much a waste of their time and add nothing to the state of the race considering they are close to a week old anyway.
So if McCain was "telling the truth" when he said the fundamentals of the economy was strong (something he has said a documented 22 times), why did he come back a few hours later and say that he was speaking of the American worker (ludicrous that it could be taken that way) and then a few hours later say "The economy is in crisis". Obviously he is struggling to find a message.
I've gone to the ARG site and these polls are not there. Where are people getting this information from?
Alan, what is this Big 10 poll you speak of?
Juris, thanks!
Andy,
But the fundamentals of the economy are good. I guess the truth hurts when it means being called out on using hyperbolic partisan rhetoric.
Look, you and I'm sure most rational people on here don't like it when Republicans used amped up rhetoric about threats from terrorism. There were consistent cries that those stories were embellished as "scare tactics" so people would keep running scared to the Republicans for protection. While there is a real threat of terror, the magnitude of the language used to describe it was off the charts and much of it fell into the "scare-mongering" category.
No different than what's happening with Dems and the economy right now. True, there are some negative things happening, and this isn't one of our best cycles at the moment. Nobody's discounting that. But the overall economic health and standard of living of the nation is still very sound at the moment. To embellish all of the bad news by using "the sky is falling" rhetoric just to play up your own candidate's chances of winning is flat out lying and wrong.
The link for the Big Ten poll is:
http://www.bigtenpoll.org
Sorry for the omission.
They just released the results.
It´s a bad set for Obama- Democrats down...6 in OH...and down just 4 in WV.
Any polling that suggests Obama does better in WV than in OH is suspect to me.
That makes NO sense. WV has gone Democratic 6 of the last 10 elections, Ohio 3 of the last 10. If you're bored, you can go back and look for the last time Ohio went Democrat while WV went Republican.
There have been three polls of WV. One was at the end of the primaries, when McCain was +9. The last two have been McCain +4 and McCain +5. I see no reason to think these are wrong.
Obama did badly in WV in the primaries because he stopped in the state once. WV is a naturally Blue state which should go Blue again if Obama were to make a serious effort. This "West Virginians are racist" stuff is crap.
Also, I'll bet Biden has huge positives there, and Obama's in favor of subsidizing conversion to clean coal, which is as big for West Virginia as ethanol is in Iowa.
I don't think much of ARG - I said that yesterday when the three most favorable results to Obama were leaked and I still feel that way now that we've seen all the results and most favor McCain. I'm curious about it though - why were those handful that would give Obama hope leaked and not just a random assortment? Who would want to build up people's hopes that way - if they saw some, they probably saw them all. Given that ARG had McCain up 3 nationally at the time, I wondered how the state polls could be good for Obama. In any case, RCP doesn't even count their polls and to my mind, they don't say very much. I'd love to believe all those pro-McCain numbers, but at this stage it's all just smoke anyway. The debates are going to be the key, I think.
One reason why the fundamentals of the economy aren't sound, and its the number that really matters- The budget deficit. Sure it doesn't have a direct effect on peoples lives, but it is the key number in any countries economy. With a low budget deficit or even a surplus there is room to move in a downturn (and the economy always has downturns), without it well who knows! Thats why the Bush tax cut was such a disaster.
Now onto the polls, my sense is that they are slowly, slowly turning. And its difficult to know how McCain can turn the tide again, beyond stellar debate performances.
No, he is refusing to address the complexities of the situation because, IMO, he doesn't understand them. And he IS being politically expedient by glossing the issue. If he was going to be courageous, he would repudiate his own record on deregulation and get specific on recovery options. He should also be called on some of the assumptions surrounding his tax policies.
And, the credit situation is truly dire. That's no 'Chicken Little' statement.
McCain is not being intellectually honest. He's doing the only thing he ever does in this campaign: trying to change the subject.
Nobody thinks the sky is falling, but we have a big problem that is directly a result of the deregulation that he and his top economic advisor -- Phil "Nation of Whiners" Gramm -- have fought for year after year.
Now that the poisoned fruits of deregulation are evident, suddenly McCain is trying to change his spots -- again.
People are tired of McCain's lying and nonsense.
John McCain's Latest Chameleon Act: Suddenly He's a Champion of De... Oops... Regulation
My 27 year old daughter who's a registered REPUBLICAN, asked me once about going out with a black guy. You can imagine what my response was. Needless to say that never came up again.
And now the Democrats want me to vote for one for President? Get real.
ARG has a "middling" rating? According to 538's pollster rating, they do slightly worse than "unknown pollster". In other words, according to Nate's model, given a poll from a pollster you've never heard of, or a poll from ARG, take the one you've never heard of, it has a better chance of being right.
Alan,
This site is state driven, not national poll driven.
For the posts discussing McCain's "fundamentals" quote, I'm far from sure he is right. Saying he meant "the American worker" is a copout. It relies on the knee-jerk reaction that American workers are great (I am one, and so would love to think that is true). And it has the bonus that saying the economy is bad = saying American workers are bad. It's political flimflammery.
The American economy for sometime has been based on consumption, especially housing. Those areas are not fundamentally strong. Read Roubini's analysis (and he's been right so far), and tell me McCain is right. It may have been the right thing to say. You could say he showed leadership by trying to instill confidence. But I don't think it has the benefit of being true.
todays RAS tracker is unchanged, still 48-47 McCain.
Reader, those same exact critiques apply equally to Obama.
Sorry again, it's me one more time.
The Big Ten poll will be released Thursday, Sept. 18, not today.
http://www.bigtenpoll.org
Okay jerk, I don't know how you are posting under my name but my daughter is 26.
Anyone know how this asshole is posting under my name?
Remember that ARG was critical of the methods used by this site. You might be a partisan on one side or another, or a passionate moderate, but you NEVER mess with the Nate.
I saw this in the Wall Street Journal and my jaw landed in my cereal.
n bailing out AIG, the Federal Reserve appeared to be motivated in part by worries that Wall Street's financial crisis could begin to spill over into seemingly safe investments held by small investors, such as money-market funds that invest in AIG debt.
Indeed, on Tuesday the $62 billion Primary Fund from the Reserve, a New York money-market firm, said it "broke the buck" -- that is, its net asset value fell below the $1-a-share level that funds like this must maintain. Breaking the buck is an extremely rare occurrence. The fund was pinched by investments in bonds issued by now collapsing Lehman Brothers.
Money-market funds are supposed to be among the safest investments available. No fund in the $3.6 trillion money-market industry has lost money since 1994, when Orange County, Calif., went bankrupt. A number of money-market funds own securities issued by AIG. The firm is also a big insurer of some money-market instruments.
Makes the cries of McCain and Biden not bailing out AIG pretty naïve.
Good point Mike.
Alan: In terms of reflecting the national trend, keep in mind that 538's EV projections rely first and foremost on state polls, and mainly draw on national polls to compensate for gaps in state polling.
Also keep in mind that, as first Nate and then Pollster.com later pointed out, a large part of McCain's bump after the RNC-Palin event was revealed in the "red states becoming redder." Winning Alabama by, say 83-17 vs. 55-45 doesn't give McCain any more EV's.
But if that is part of a "national trend" it will show up to some extent in other states, and Nate's model will pick up some of that national trend, which drives some states over toward McCain. At least until the McCain-Palin euphoria dies off, as it appears to be doing in the latest polls including the net favorability ratings of the individual candidates.
Further, some here have correctly noted that Nate's modeling has a deliberate "latency" function, in not overreacting to the latest numbers. Nate has noted that as we move closer to election day (and as the density of polling also picks up, as it has already in the last week or so) he will be tweaking his trend model to be more sensitive to the latest information than it is now.
Here's the moment everyone's been waiting for: Field Poll of CA
Obama 52
Palin/McCain 36
Field poll CA:
Obama 52
Mac 36
DarienCrow said...
My 27 year old daughter who's a registered REPUBLICAN, asked me once about going out with a black guy. You can imagine what my response was. Needless to say that never came up again.
And now the Democrats want me to vote for one for President? Get real.
SOCKPUPPET.
Almost identical statements on AIG:
McCain, Obama on AIG
Posted by TOM BEVAN | E-Mail This | Permalink | Email Author
John McCain released the following statement this morning:
"Today, the government was forced to commit $85 billion to stop the collapse of AIG, another in a growing series of events that includes Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. These actions stem from failed regulation, reckless management, and a casino culture on Wall Street that has crippled one of the most important companies in America. The focus of any such action should be to protect the millions of Americans who hold insurance policies, retirement plans and other accounts with AIG. We must not bailout the management and speculators who created this mess. They had months of warnings following the Bear Stearns debacle, and they failed to act.
"We should never again allow the United States to be in this position. We need strong and effective regulation, a return to job-creating growth and a restoration of ethics and the social contract between businesses and America. Important questions remain to be answered by Wall Street. Did executives mislead investors and regulators about the severity of the problem? We must investigate whether or not there was misrepresentation on part of the company executives. If there was, there must be penalties. We need to change the way Washington and Wall Street does business, and as President I will."
Here is Barack Obama's statement:
"The fact that we have reached a point where the Federal Reserve felt it had to take this unprecedented step with the American Insurance Group is the final verdict on the failed economic philosophy of the last eight years. While we do not know all the details of this arrangement, the Fed must ensure that the plan protects the families that count on insurance. It should bolster our economy's ability to create good-paying jobs and help working Americans pay their bills and save their money. It must not bail out the shareholders or management of AIG.
This crisis serves as a stark reminder of the failures of crony capitalism and an economic philosophy that sees any regulation at all as unwise and unnecessary. It's a philosophy that lets Washington lobbyists shred consumer protections and distort our economy so it works for the special interests instead of working people; a philosophy that says we should give more and more to those with the most and hope that prosperity trickles down to the rest.
Instead, the pain has trickled up - from the struggles of Main Street all the way up to the crises on Wall Street.
Despite his eleventh hour conversion to the language of reform, Senator McCain has subscribed to this philosophy for twenty-six years in Washington and the events of this week have rendered it a colossal failure. It is time for a new economic strategy, guided by the principle that America prospers when all Americans prosper, where common-sense rules of the road ensure that competition is fair, open, and honest. That is the strategy I will pursue as President, and I will bring the change we need to restore confidence in our financial markets and strength to our economy."
Oh, my. Those Big Ten polls are making me salivate
The nasty comments from "DarienCrow" in this thread are fake. But the real one *did* make racist comments in another thread last night. And in so doing, he illustrated a very big problem for Obama that likely cannot be tackled effectively.
dariencrow, the site accepts two forms of identification/authentication: Google/Blogger, and OpenID. Dunno which one you use, but anyone can create an identical name in the other.
"Almost identical statements on AIG"
Yes, except that McCain is being a dishonest putz once again by trying to run against his own record, and hoping nobody will notice.
Pretty damning stuff Chuck. I hope you dont turn your guns on me haha
Well I guess I know who is doing it now filistro.
Typical Democrat... if you can't win on the issues... smear and lie.
My daughter can date whoever she wants. She has very good judgment.
"The IL number is credible...Obama is fairly despised in downstate IL...in fact, anywhere outside of Cook County. If the sampling is heavier outside of Cook it would easily explain the number. And honestly, if/when Obama loses the presidential election I expect that he'll lose his Senate seat in the following election which will end a rather undistinguished political career."
I can't decide if you've ever been to Illinois or not from this comment.
As someone who recently moved from there, your comment is utterly insane.
You either have no idea what is going on in Illinois, or you are a downstater who can't come to grips with the fact that downstate Illinois is politically irrelevant and only a fraction the state's population.
Darien:
How many black men has your daughter actually dated? Did you approve?
Wow Mr. Crow...at first you seemed like just a bit of a jerk, but a thinking one...way to let your racist flag fly full-force...
Chuck, partially true re deregulation focus - but Mccain has always called for streamlining federal bureaucracies to increase effectiveness and decrease overlap. That's the reform he can legitimately pitch, all hyperbole aside. This is dangerous ground for Obama considering the Dems ties to Fannie (not that there arent GOP ties, but Fannie really hates mccain since that 05 bill he proposed)
Darien,
Someone can just go into their google account and change their ID...and it appears someone has changed it to yours to mock you. It's not that hard to do, but by clicking on the person's handle, there is a unique blogger ID # that can differentiate between users.
Wise up America, your economy is bad, and getting worse.
After the rustbelt industries came electronics, software & telecommunications. I work for an American telecommunications giant overseas... we were taken over by the French, now our main competition is Scandinavian and Chinese. Most manufacturing industries have moved to China, software to India. These countries are pirating US technology and selling it cheaper.
Sure you may get a temporary revival ... but you need a new wave of innovation (biotechnology? new energy converters?) to start a fresh round of high-tech industries. Otherwise, you are going to be left with Wal-Mart type jobs and a declining middle class.
I give a hollow laugh to hear people like Sarch Palin talking about creationism as is evolution was the biggest problem that exists in American schools.
Obama seems to me to be the natural candidate with the vision to see what needs to be done. Overseas, you are stretched too thin and have not got the economic power to sustain your military apparatus. You need to pick your fights more wisely, improve your economy, and prepare for climate change.
McCain just wants to play with big boys toys and have a few nice little wars.
"Well I guess I know who is doing it now filistro."
It was no imposter last night making comments about "Snoop Dogg dancing in the Oval Office".
Huh, Obama's back on top on Intrade today.
Is the worm turning?
Intrade seems to me to be somewhat of a leading indicator. It lags us bloggers because we're on top of everything, but it normally seems to move within 24 hours. The shift today is due to the economic crisis being Issue #1 and Obama doing better in the last couple days polling. They have low volume and liquidity, but they're shifts make sense most of the time.
Ob:
Yep - slightly.
CNN is supposed to release a few polls today, including Florida.
Re: AIG, there were no good options there. Not surprised the statements are so similar.
Re: Obama in Illinois, I live in IL and agree with inkstain. Obama is hugely popular and respected throughout the state.
Charles,
Obama has done plenty "running against his own record" as well for political expediency. Both are guilty as charged.
CNN is supposed to release a few polls today, including Florida.
Since we like to make predictions here, put me down for McCain 48 - Obama 43 in Florida.
Re: Obama in Illinois, I live in IL and agree with inkstain. Obama is hugely popular and respected throughout the state.
Didn't he win election by something like 70-30?
What's up with that "DarienCrow" guy? What a racist jerk!! Too bad most Republicans fall into that category.
Screw you, "DarienCrow"!
"Obama has done plenty "running against his own record" as well for political expediency."
Not even close to as often as Mccain has. McCain has tried to completely 'reinvent' himself multiple times.
He's a total phony and people are noticing it.
Intrade is quite flighty and unreliable save election days.
Rass and Zogby both show a dead heat in who Voters trust to handle the economy. Diageo|Hotline has Obama with almost an 11 point advantage on the economy.
Plouffe just sent out a video btw about how they're going to crank it up in Florida. They've spent 8Mil but are dedicating almost 40. Seems kind of lopsided to me but Plouffe seems to know what he's talking about. If Obama won that state it would be a wrap.
What do the Jews in Florida think about Palin's "Convert a Jew" philosophy?
Maybe I'm gaming expectations, but to me even on the economy is a win for Obama. That's an issue that moves independents, and splitting independents is a win for Obama.
Plouffe just sent out a video btw about how they're going to crank it up in Florida. They've spent 8Mil but are dedicating almost 40. Seems kind of lopsided to me but Plouffe seems to know what he's talking about. If Obama won that state it would be a wrap.
Obama's Florida ground-game is phenomenal. Absolutely brilliant. It wasn't a coincidence that McCain was campaigning here yesterday even though everyone is already calling the state for him.
"Didn't he win election by something like 70-30?"
For the Senate? Yes, but it was against Alan Keyes, who didn't even live in Illinois. He called Mary Cheney a selfish hedonist. He wants to abolish the income tax entirely.
It seems Obama is popular in Illinois, but his margin of victory for the Senate was more a result of his opponent.
"Re: Obama in Illinois, I live in IL and agree with inkstain. Obama is hugely popular and respected throughout the state."
No. If I underestimate Obama's popularity in northern IL, you underestimate how negatively he is viewed downstate. South of 80, just being from Chicago is seen as a huge negative.
Downstate IL is irrelevant politically. But DuPage and the other counties surrounding Cook are not, and they are heavily Republican despite trending bluer last election. I mean, I am not ignoring Hastert's seat going blue. But McCain is the sort of "independent Republican" that can unify the Republican evangelical and white collar bases in counties like DuPage. I have no data, but my impression is that he's very popular there...actually I do have data: the ARG poll.
Obama will win IL. But after the savaging he'll take from here on out, I wouldn't be sure he'll be able to hold on to his Senate seat...although a few more years of poor government by Republicans may help him out there.
Darien... it's not me who's acting as your sockpuppet. In fact I was the first one to point out the impersonator in a thread below where your so-called "racist" statements had given rise to a frenzy.
I like you, Darien. I know you're not a racist, which is why I knew the posts were fake.
Somebody also started posting fake stuff under my name last night, so I'm leavign for a while. If anything appears under my name in the next couple of days, it's not from me.
I wish the software could be adjusted to allow only one handle per IP address. We've lareday lost Va Con over this crap. It'll be a shame to lose more of the regular posters.
PPP has Obama up in Virginia 48-46 with polling done over the weekend (ie before Black Monday)
This is good news. Let's see how the CNN state polls like tonight. They do their fieldwork Sunday through Tuesday so they should look good for Obama compared to some of the tough numbers he has got recently.
Inkstain,
Focus on the economy may be a great turn for Obama but a "Crisis" may not be. I mean consider what this day would be for Obama if there were no Meltdown and our embassy in Yemen was bombed....
I get the sense that Plouffe et. al have something up their sleeves. I mean it seems like they're behind 7 in Florida but who knows.
Aren't the southern Illini considered ignorant rednecks?
Obama had a good ground game in FL - but so does McCain. I'm in FL - I just don't see Obama winning it unless you see some sort of McCain collapse. There is just too much going for McCain in the state in terms of demographics. It's not 'safe' which is why McCain was here over the past couple of days, but he's got a real advantage. Obama's ground game will not be enough to flip it. I hope they do spend a lot of money here - money that won't be spent elsewhere. I'll make a prediction that one big story after the election - no matter how it turns out - is that Obama's money won't have made much of a difference.
Reader said...
dariencrow, the site accepts two forms of identification/authentication: Google/Blogger, and OpenID. Dunno which one you use, but anyone can create an identical name in the other.
I thought you had to register with Google/Blogger to post here. Thanks for explaining.
And to answer your question my daughter lives in California and I don't get involved in her relationships. If you guys want to live in denial about Obama and his racist associations and his radical friends go ahead... but they are an issue in this election and I'm telling the truth about how it will factor into what will happen in November.
I predict really bad things will follow after McCain is elected. Caused by racist factions from the hard left. I am entitled to my prediction and I will be honest about them. I do not advocate this whole "politically correct" society. It's living in complete denial of reality.
So, Charles, filistro, sedi, or anyone else. You all seem familiar with these blogs. Is there any way , using the blogger number on their fake handle, to identify the real handle of the trolls?
Scott,
What are you seeing in Florida on the Ground?
I live in Socal and his presence for obvious reasons is fairly light. THey do have a bunch of us driving out to Vegas though to register voters etc.
"Obama will win IL. But after the savaging he'll take from here on out, I wouldn't be sure he'll be able to hold on to his Senate seat...although a few more years of poor government by Republicans may help him out there."
Name your odds on that bet.
The reason Obama was facing Keyes last time was because of the utter and absolute failure of the Illinois Republican Party to come up with a credible candidate. Who is this mystery candidate that will take Obama's Senate seat next time?
"South of 80, just being from Chicago is seen as a huge negative. "
I spent 23 of the 26 years of my life living in Illinois south of 80. Fortunately for Obama, that portion of the state contains less than 1/4th of the state's population.
The most recent reference I could find to an Illinois poll on Obama was January 2008:
http://www.qctimes.com/articles/2008/01/27/news/local/doc479c150a18b15256611382.txt
"The poll found that Obama remains about as popular at home as a politician gets, with a 68 percent “favorable” rating. The former Illinois state legislator was catapulted into national prominence during his overwhelming victory in the state’s 2004 U.S. Senate race.
By comparison, the state’s second-most-popular politician, Democratic U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin, had a 54 percent “favorable” rating in the poll, while unpopular officials such as Democratic Gov. Rod Blagojevich and President Bush were held well below 50 percent."
Your read on Obama's Illinos popularity is completely wrong.
OK. We're there. I think Nate should never speculate and McCain must be polling very very very low because McCain people are saying "do not vote for the black guy" on the media; just not in so many words.
I've been saying this over and over; McCain camp acts like it's in panic mode and Obama's is very relaxed.
We'll see how open racism scores with American people. But PLEASE don't look at Ras numbers look at the camps' attitudes.
On an unrelated note: stock market is going down, I wonder what we'll buy today. I hope we buy Lions Gate. I always wanted to own a movie production company.
Obama's popular in IL, but he's never beat a tough opponent. Alice Palmer (DQ'd herself), Blair Hull (wife beater), Jack Ryan (sex scandal) were all losers.
The only time he faced a decent opponent (Bobby Rush), he lost.
Still, absolutely no way in all hell Obama loses IL. I will eat my shoe if that happens.
"On an unrelated note: stock market is going down, I wonder what we'll buy today. I hope we buy Lions Gate. I always wanted to own a movie production company."
Win.
zornoph I would agree with you mostly but those statistics on 600,000 blacks that didnt vote in 2000 were just staggering.
I can't imagine that the Registered Voter polls would really understand the scale of that.
Oh, for what it's worth, I looked at those ARG polls again. They are not all from the 11-13, some are earlier and some are later. At first glance, I thought that this might be good news for the Obama-ites as a couple of those more favorable to him were later ones, but then I saw that the IL one was from 13-16 as well. And I remembered that it's ARG, so no matter when the polls were taken, they are crap.
To identify who is writing, just click on the name at the top of the posting. You will be taken to a profile page which has a unique number identifier. For example, mine is "10019303035321620019".
If someone impersonates me the name will be the same but not the number.
DarienCrow's number is "07721469366823356614". He didn't write the stuff about his daughter dating black men, but *did* make a more mild racial slur last night.
"PPP has Obama up in Virginia 48-46 with polling done over the weekend (ie before Black Monday)"
Seriously, why should Obama be considered the underdog in Virginia? I keep hearing how it's a red state, but since 2005, they've elected a democratic governor, replaced a "rising star" republican senator with democrat, and are about to replace another republican senator with a democrat by 25 points. Are that many Warner voters expected to split ticket?
How was Obama's address an appeal for much of anything. This was his plan: "I'll cut taxes [less than John McCain] and I'll end the war in Iraq [probably around 2011, when the recession is long over]. Look at my website."
I'm not saying McCain has a dramatically better approach - though he may have a more politically savvy one, which is attacking Wall Street (which is also silly - when the government creates moral hazards corporations can't be blamed for doing what they were designed to).
So McCain, Obama and Biden are all quoted today, saying something with substance on the economy. (Never mind if it's right or wrong.) Palin appears to have said nothing, which is probably not surprising.
What's interesting is how completely the press has abandoned her. All of a sudden, the news means we have to be serious. Palin isn't part of a serious ticket, in anyone's mind.
I don't think I can even *imagine* what it would be like if Palin were president and this stuff were going on. Much worse. Much, much worse.
Virginia has consistently polled better for Obama than Ohio for the past few months. Obama's leads in the more favorable MI, PA, WI, and maybe MN are in jeopardy.
Plouffe, here's what you have to do: Move resources from OH to MI, PA, WI, and MN. Keeping doing what you do in VA and FL.
Scott,
What are you seeing in Florida on the Ground?
You name it, it's out here.
Voter Registration -- I was reading a report from the Downtown Orlando Obama HQ, for instance, that said they registered something like 40,000 new voters since early August (of course, UCF and Rollins going back in session probably helped with that). Now imagine that in every city and in every college town in the state -- Tampa/USF, Jacksonville, Gainesville, Miami, Tallahassee...
Canvass/GOTV Events -- A quick search of the events on Obama's website shows how many of these are really going on. We managed to get a few dozen people to come out last weekend in one of the reddest parts of one of Central Florida's reddest counties each of the past 2 weekends. This is a county that voted to send Tom Feeney back to Washington despite being named one of the 5 dirtiest politicians there simply because he had an (R) next to his name.
Phone Banking -- Both campaign organized and self-organized. It's everywhere.
Enthusiasm -- I just don't see the enthusiasm from McCain supporters that I do from Obama's people, and Sarah Palin doesn't seem to resonate here as she has in other places.
He's never beat a tough opponent????
How about the most dominant brand name in Democratic Politics?
Why on earth is Wisconsin in jeapordy now?
Every state that has one poll released within five points does not have to get tossup status :)
This is why McCain has a problem on this issue:
"On a broader range of economic issues, though, Mr. McCain readily departs from Reaganomics. His philosophy is best described as a work in progress. He is refreshingly blunt when he tell me: "I'm going to be honest: I know a lot less about economics than I do about military and foreign policy issues. I still need to be educated." OK, so who does he turn to for advice? His answer is reassuring. His foremost economic guru is former Texas Sen. Phil Gramm (who would almost certainly be Treasury secretary in a McCain administration). He's also friendly with the godfather of supply-side economics, Arthur Laffer."
http://www.opinionjournal.com/editorial/feature.html?id=110007600
Plouffe, here's what you have to do: Move resources from OH to MI, PA, WI, and MN. Keeping doing what you do in VA and FL.
I agree that a winning combination that DOESN'T include Ohio certainly seems more likely now, but I'd be wary of shifting resources now just as the economy is really starting to resonate in the MSM coverage.
Any feedback from the Jewish Community on Sarah Palin Scott?
Antmatic that PPP poll is pretty reassuring. How does nate value the results from PPP?
"How about the most dominant brand name in Democratic Politics?"
She beat herself :) What magazine had the article last month detailing all kinds of in-staff e-mails and how things went wrong? The phrase "circular firing squad" stuck out at me.
Zornorph said...
Obama had a good ground game in FL - but so does McCain. I'm in FL - I just don't see Obama winning it unless you see some sort of McCain collapse. There is just too much going for McCain in the state in terms of demographics. It's not 'safe' which is why McCain was here over the past couple of days, but he's got a real advantage. Obama's ground game will not be enough to flip it. I hope they do spend a lot of money here - money that won't be spent elsewhere. I'll make a prediction that one big story after the election - no matter how it turns out - is that Obama's money won't have made much of a difference.
Something important to note, Pennsylvania and Florida are high value targets even if they seem tough to flip. We have a situation where there are really only 10 or so "battlegrounds". Pennsylvania and Florida would be close to absolute in their decisveness if flipped at 21 and 27 electoral votes each. They could become money pits, but they could also be firewalls. Obama could win Colorado and Virginia, but lose Pennsylvania and lose the election. McCain could win Wisconsin and Michigan, but lose florida and lose the election. They are probably the only two states we can say that about.
"The poll found that Obama remains about as popular at home as a politician gets, with a 68 percent “favorable” rating.
Well, I just have to point out that Sarah Palin's favorable ratings at home are more than 10 points above that, so clearly that's not as popular as a politician gets at home.
Vanessa, I do expect a bigger black turnout this year and I also think Obama will do better than Gore among Cubans. Elian was the one who prevented him from reaching the White House - something I took great satisfaction in. But McCain is going to do much better with the elderly and Jewish populations as well as the 'cracker' vote. And I see him turning out the Vets in huge numbers.
I'd certainly be worried about my Senate seat were I Obama. ;)
I am tired of campaigning with Cubs fans, as you put it, particularly those who spend Monday talking about Sunday and who forget about the game Tuesday.
Has anyone read anything that suggests that the Obama's August/September slide was not for failing to destroy McCain, not for Sarah Palin, but because Republicans actually found out that John McCain was running for President? Does no one remember how inflated democratic participation was after the primaries and what a snoozer show the GOP put on?
filistro said...
Darien... it's not me who's acting as your sockpuppet. In fact I was the first one to point out the impersonator in a thread below where your so-called "racist" statements had given rise to a frenzy.
I like you, Darien. I know you're not a racist, which is why I knew the posts were fake.
Sorry filistro and thank you.
I was a little stunned and I had no idea what a "sockpuppet" was... but it sounded really bad. Sorry again I just thought that the first to say something derrogatory had to be the offender.
"Any feedback from the Jewish Community on Sarah Palin Scott?"
Sarah Palin is driving Jewish voters to Obama, whom they weren't thrilled with from the beginning.
Hey Chuckie how is Obama doing in Florida? Wasn't Palin supposed to destroy McCain's chances there? ;)
No offense, hitless, but when you say "I have proof: the ARG poll", your credibility takes a tumble. It could be worse, though. You could have cited a Zogby Interactive poll. You're just skating on thin ice, that's all. No need or desire for name calling.
Rasmussen tracker was unchanged.
InkStain said...
Why on earth is Wisconsin in jeapordy now?
Every state that has one poll released within five points does not have to get tossup status :)
Obama was exceptional in wisconsin v Clinton. It should be his to win, but let's not forget it was basically a tie in 2004. Wisconsin is the type of state where Palin may be a factor, even if most of the rest of the country gets over their crush. Add in a potential "Bradley".
Any feedback from the Jewish Community on Sarah Palin Scott?
Everything I've heard has been anecdotal, really, in that Sarah Palin scares the community at large, but that it was almost assuredly going heavily Obama anyways. I suspect the only effect Palin might have is getting a few more Jewish voters mobilized to help, but nothing in terms of pulling raw votes. I don't have anything scientific on that, though.
Palin is HOT!!! My friends and I love MILFS!!!
Inkstain did somebody release a poll for Wisconsin?
Just read on Politico, that crazy ad making fun of McCain's age, big cell phone, computer literacy etc. Never aired once on television. Not once. The idea was to get people talking about it but not actually show it to elderly folks in Florda, Ohio etc.
People talked about how McCain can't use a computer but never really saw the imagery of it. This is what I mean by Plouffe being quite crafty.
"What's interesting is how completely the press has abandoned her. All of a sudden, the news means we have to be serious. Palin isn't part of a serious ticket, in anyone's mind."
Palin is serving her function, which is to whip the right wing base into a frenzy at highly partisan events and through highly partisan media channels (Hannity & Fox News). The mainstream political press is done with her because the republicans are basically giving them the finger regarding access to her. If McCain doesn't win the election, she's a future trivia question.
Any feedback from the Jewish Community on Sarah Palin Scott?
Everything I've heard has been anecdotal, really, in that Sarah Palin scares the community at large, but that it was almost assuredly going heavily Obama anyways. I suspect the only effect Palin might have is getting a few more Jewish voters mobilized to help, but nothing in terms of pulling raw votes. I don't have anything scientific on that, though.
To clarify - I know there's been some worries that the Jewish vote was wary of voting for Obama, but most everything I've heard is that, in the end, they'd probably break his way anyways.
The push-polling revelation also seems to be hurting McCain, from what I've heard people saying, even if he had nothing to do with it.
"Inkstain did somebody release a poll for Wisconsin?"
Not as far as I know. But all of a sudden it's a tossup state or something.
BTW, where are all the market fluctuation dorks who kept posting about the market being up yesterday?
Wisconsin and Minnessotta are both toss-ups now. Iowa far behind?
Dow down now 275. I never thought I would say this, but I'm going to TiVo "Mad Money" at 6 EDT today. Not that Jim Cramer is going to rant and rave... much. But it's Liar's Poker all over again. You have to hear from the people who have front row seats to the big spectacle.
." If McCain doesn't win the election, she's a future trivia question."
and when he does she'll be the HOTTEST VP in US history!! VPILF!!
Where's Bill Nelson. Shouldn't we be seeing him more out there for Obama, if Obama's investing a fortune there and thinks he might win it. He's the top Dem in the state.
@scott,
Does the jewish community really know about that pushpolling event? I thought that was something that was covered mostly in the Blogs and not in Local News.
The obama campaign, I have come to find, is extremely local news driven.
You all will have to utter the phrase "Madame Vice President" and fairly soon given McCain's age, "Madame President"! ;)
"Obama was exceptional in wisconsin v Clinton. It should be his to win, but let's not forget it was basically a tie in 2004. Wisconsin is the type of state where Palin may be a factor, even if most of the rest of the country gets over their crush. Add in a potential "Bradley"."
11 polls of Wisconsin, 11 Obama wins. Average win of 6.5 points. That had better be one *huge* Bradley effect.
Wisconsin's polling profile to date resembles Texas, Oregon, New Jersey, Georgia. It's not a swing state.
I'm not even sold that Pennsylvania or Michigan are realistically likely to flip, so talk of Wisconsin just makes me laugh.
Palin's a 1 hit band. She a good singer who doesn't write her own music. Her 1 song was about a folk hero who rescued the people from the government. Although many believe it to be a true story, the subject of her song was a fantasy.
Eventually, everyone gets tired of hearing the same song over and over again. I suspect this is the extent of her repertoire. I don't think there'll another song for her to sing.
I'm pro-McCain and I find the ARG polls to be absurd. McCain within 5pts in Illinois? Ban this lousy polling organization from this blog!
"I'm not even sold that Pennsylvania or Michigan are realistically likely to flip, so talk of Wisconsin just makes me laugh."
Why does CNN and Chuck Todd count it as a toss-up then, lib? ;)
"But it's Liar's Poker all over again"
Oooh, there's one to add to the re-reading list.
@PPP
Not bad for Obama. The poll is "older" as 2004. In 2004 only 10% of the voter were older as 65 and the poll has 17% +65. And this is the only "age group" which favor McCain.
The poll has only 2% more democrats more as 2004. Not more AA as 2004.
Despite all these "facts" Obama lead with +2 (in the margin of error). I think Virgina is more possible as Ohio for Obama.
@ARG NC
I like this poll. Obama is better in the group +50 as under 50 years. This sounds realistic. ;)
You're kids better start boning up on Intelligent Design studies when Palin gets in!!!
World History courses will only cover 5000 years!!
Gold is currently up *over $50 an ounce*. Wow.
"Why does CNN and Chuck Todd count it as a toss-up then, lib? ;)"
A) Toss-up or swing state? There's a difference.
B) They are both wrong.
Where's Bill Nelson?
Great question. Maybe waiting a little bit to trot him out in order to maximize the effect? Obama hasn't been to Florida much yet, so maybe they are just waiting?
Chuck Todd said there's a lot of "anti-Chicago" sentiment in Wisconsin, and that they love Palin.
RCP just updated their snapshot prediction:
Obama/Biden 286 McCain/Palin 252
UP for Obama from 273 EV where it had sat for ages [relatively].
Since RCP is the very definition of a right-leaning site [fav of the FAUX crowd] - gotta assume that means things are looking grim for the GOPers...
today is a GOOD day for the USA !!!
Palin is on record as saying we're in the midst of a long term religious war. The Islamists MUST be defeated!!
andy1979,
Wow I didnt realize that the internals were so favorable to McCain.
Virginia was another one of those states that I believe Plouffe Identified as having a huge undervoting African American population.
"Chuck Todd said..."
When Chuck Todd produces a poll that shows McCain within a point in Wisconsin, it will be the first poll to do so.
"Obama/Biden 286 McCain/Palin 252"
They've flipped Virginia. I'm almost sold on Virginia being doable for Obama as a true tossup, but not 100%.
"A) Toss-up or swing state? There's a difference.
B) They are both wrong."
CNN actually has WI and PA as leaning Obama, MI as a tossup. Maybe not in the world where McCain is already our president-elect, but in the real one.
What was the PPP poll for Florida and when did it come out?
There's another similar analogy you could use instead of being a Cubs fan. What team fielded seemingly superior teams year after year after year, played well year after year after year, energized their sizable fan base year after year after year, came excrutiatingly close year after year after year, and ultimately lost year after year after year, usually to their archrivals, who were kindly referred to as "the Evil Empire."? The Red Sox, of course. Their fans shared the Cubs fans' aura of inevitable gloom -- that is, until 2004 and 2007 and... As a Red Sox fan and a Democrat, I like my analogy way better than Nate's.
When he was chosen, I said that it might be because it could help in Virginia. I might be right.
PPP:
One thing that may be helping Obama to hold onto his lead is that Virginia is the only
battleground state PPP has polled in where Joe Biden gets better overall reviews than
Sarah Palin. Biden has a net 11 point favorability rating with 38% of respondents saying
that his selection made them more likely to vote for Obama while just 27% say his choice
made them less likely to choose the Democrat. Palin has just a two point net favorability,
with 42% saying they are more likely to vote John McCain because of her and 40%
saying they are less likely to do so.
I want Obama to win. I want the Cubs to win the World Series.
Obama winning without needing the overhyped Ohio and Florida, defying conventional wisdom, would be like the Cubs sweeping the White Sox in the World Series.
"You're kids better start boning up on Intelligent Design studies when Palin gets in!!!
World History courses will only cover 5000 years!!"
And, of course, the Enlightenment, with its ideas of empiricism, a search for absolute truth, and rational scepticism will be completely ignored.
Although, as the last eight years have shown, we have a system that's pretty able to resist wackos like Palin.
Whoever is spoofing me, I agree! We're in a war against radical Islamofascism, and we can't blink.
I lent out my copy of "Liar's Poker" in 2002. Haven't seen it since. When you are in that in between time just before getting your MBA, that's a must on the reading list. "Barbarians At the Gate", too. Good movie. James Garner, man. Helluva actor. Attention Ladies: Because of him, I loved "The Notebook."
Anyway, can we start taking bets on the Gallup tracker? I say a tie game today at 47.
Will be curious to see those Rass Wisconsin and Oregon Polls.
Obama should rack up just huge margins in Southern Wisconsin, Madison area.
so i don't know a lot about the ins and outs of how polls handle a lot of the anomolies that they can encounter, but could someone explain to me how, if at all, they handle new voter registration? do they look at it and use this data? or do they just use history to say how many people are going to vote and use that in their prediction model?
unless i am wrong i am understanding that obama is having a lot of his efforts put into new voter registration. and if so, would that not skew many of these poles (obviously depending on how many new voters actually signup/vote).
please inform me
Since RCP is the very definition of a right-leaning site [fav of the FAUX crowd] - gotta assume that means things are looking grim for the GOPers...
Given how grim things looked for McCain for much of this year, this hardly upsets my breakfast any. This whole thing is so close, a puff of wind could tip in one way or the other. There is no doubt that Obama is having a better week than McCain - just as McCain won the last couple of weeks. I see them going into the debates tied - I think we'll know a lot more after those are done.
To 'congratulations to president-elect mccain!!!'
Thank God you're not old enough to vote.
"One thing that may be helping Obama to hold onto his lead is that Virginia is the only
battleground state PPP has polled in where Joe Biden gets better overall reviews than
Sarah Palin."
So did PA in the Quinnipiac poll. By a lot. One reason why right now I am not as concerned about PA as some.
What is it in the Virginian demographics/politics/character/groundgame that means that they rejected the Palin schtick from day one?
"Palin is on record as saying we're in the midst of a long term religious war. The Islamists MUST be defeated!!"
Yeah, but not by Team America-style, gung-ho, thoughtless blundering.
Here's the polls:
American Research Group
Alabama
McCain 58
Obama 36
Alaska
McCain 55
Obama 39
Arizona
McCain 56
Obama 39
Colorado
McCain 46
Obama 44
Delaware
Obama 51
McCain 40
Washington, DC
Obama 82
McCain 13
Hawaii
Obama 63
McCain 32
Idaho
McCain 68
Obama 25
Illinois
Obama 51
McCain 45
Kansas
McCain 63
Obama 31
Kentucky
McCain 57
Obama 37
Louisiana
McCain 50
Obama 43
Maine
Obama 51
McCain 41
Mississippi
McCain 55
Obama 39
Missouri
McCain 50
Obama 45
Montana
McCain 49
Obama 47
Nevada
McCain 49
Obama 46
New Mexico
Obama 51
McCain 44
New York
Obama 55
McCain 38
North Carolina
McCain 52
Obama 41
Ohio
McCain 50
Obama 44
Rhode Island
Obama 59
McCain 33
Texas
McCain 57
Obama 36
Utah
McCain 65
Obama 29
West Virginia
McCain 49
Obama 45
Wyoming
McCain 66
Obama 28
The numbers in West Virginia and Montana are interesting. The Illinois numbers seem to inflate McCain's support in the state. Obama is doing better in Missouri than Ohio. The Louisiana numbers aren't too bad, but I still doubt Obama would win there. North Carolina seems to be moving away from Obama a bit, but with all the crazy numbers from that state lately, who knows? Colorado is still close. Other than that, it seems like much of the polling isn't really shocking.
Uncle Toby why does Biden do so well in Virginia?
The real mike, where did you get your MBA?
You can't trust PPP. It's a Democrat poll, and unreliable.
"You're kids better start boning up on Intelligent Design studies when Palin gets in!!!"
I think you better work on you're grammar first.
foot guy, there are likely voter and registered voter polling models.
Hey Does anybody know if Obama has a presence on the Ground in West Virginia?
Michael Lewis is a god in my writing pantheon.
Should I ever give up my inkstaining and move into professordom, his opening paragaphs in "Blind Side" will be the basis for an entire semester on lede-writing for young sportswriters.
I think personally that we're more like New York Jets fans. The Cubs are at least loved by their fans.
Us Jets fans, once we give up on the team, (like after the missed field goal in the first quarter on Sunday, I knew it was over), we hate them when they're choking.
I can't believe anybody with half a brain would consider letting AIG fail. McCain should know better. Biden does not better. Are these misquotes or something? Maybe they meant the U.S. government shouldn't take it over or something.
Let me repeat- if AIG goes, it *all* goes. Too many pension funds heavily invested in AIG. Too many banks insured by AIG. Too many inusrance companies insured by AIG. Our entire financial house of cards collapses if AIG goes bankrupt. It's Depression time. Compared to that, what's a couple hundred billion dollars of loan guarantees, which will probably end up costing the U.S. government a couple years worth of Alaskan earmarks.
Originally, I thought AIG had screwed up by hitting the market too much. Now I'm not sure they did anything wrong. Who could predict that the banks they insure would claim a hundred billion dollars in writeoffs within a year of each other?
WV and MT are sucker bets.
IMHO, the closer you get to parity in a state you are behind in, the harder it is to move points. It's way easier to get from -10 to -5 than it is to get from -5 to even.
For that same reason, I have little doubt that McCain might get Pa and Mi to -2 or so, but I also have little doubt Obama will win them.
Er, Biden DOES KNOW better.
@ Vanessa - Around your neck of the woods, but I don't want to say to preserve my quasi-anonymity. Put it this way - they wouldn't let me into USC. ;-)
@ Gianna - I'm almost convinced that CTPEM is the same person as "Greg" from a few weeks ago. I don't think he is majority age, either. Greg predicted about a week ago that McCain would win 40 states, including Connecticut.
Nate, I wish you'd write something about the relationship between the state polls and the national polls. I think people need to be reminded that:
1. There is a lag
2. The national polls have been moving back toward Obama
Therefore, in a couple weeks, we can expect state polls to be shifting toward Obama as well.
Its definitely been a surprise to see how much the RNC brought him down.
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Really? Because I thought for the most part he's been pretty even (tempered), and his campaign/base are all over the place. It's actually the thing I really like and have always liked about him and something I look for in a candidate. Is Obama perfect? No. But neither are people. I never expect for any party to be 100% behind their candidate. You filter through all the crap (b/c it's def on both sides) and figure out who has the best OVERALL message/plan/etc.
General observation: In post piggygate times, republicans generally just do not seem to have the same enthusiasm that democrats have this year.
September 17, 2008
New York, NY - The Diageo/Hotline Daily Tracker Poll shows a tight race between Obama-Biden and McCain-Palin, with a slight close in the margin (from a 4-point to a 3-point Obama-Biden lead). In today's Poll, Obama-Biden is at 45% and McCain-Palin is at 42%, with 9% of voters undecided.
General Election Ballot: McCain-Palin vs. Obama-Biden*
In terms of perceived performance on key issues, McCain continues to dominate on national security, with a 20-point advantage, and he reverses his 3-day slide on "who handles economy better" by gaining 3 points on this issue. With the economy being the top issue on voters' minds (at 40%), the Poll shows that the gap on the economy is once again closing, with Obama dropping 3 points on his perceived performance on the economy.
The Poll shows Obama widening his lead on who would best handle the issue of healthcare, steadily climbing on his perceived performance on this issue, as McCain gradually slides. The margin on perceived performance on energy is also gradually closing, according to today's Poll, with McCain moving back up.
I wondered if Biden's reach from Delaware ran into the "Delmarva". I live in New Jersey, in both the Philly and New York markets (Princeton-Trenton) and Biden is extremely well known in Philly because there are no Delaware tv markets. So, I wondered that if Northern VA/Maryland are the same. That might not be entirely the case, but he's well known and well-liked in VA, apparently. Also, The NE Megalopolis runs from Richmond VA to Boston. Essentially, it's one massive, large city with essentially the same demographics.
There is a lag
I see this come up a lot, but I don't quite understand it. If the state polls are done at the same time as the national ones, where does the lag come from?
Prediction time for Gallup.
I say 47-47 tie.
What say you?
I'll bite on Gallup... 46-46... I think McCain may lose a point on the economy, but Obama might not have gained yet.
Mike,
Holds at M+1. Ras yesterday daily was M+1, after O+2 day before.
Predict Gallup moves back to McCain +2.
Stuart: The "middling" rating for ARG can be seen not so much by its rank relative to other pollsters as by the size of the PIE estimate. ARG polls won't be counted much differently from the vast majority of polls; it's not nearly as good as the best or nearly as bad as the worst. It's middling.
Darien's self-loathing is evident.
Ink, here's last three days of Gallup:
9/13/2008 45.6 47.5
9/14/2008 45.2 47.4
9/15/2008 47.2 46.1
Unless McCain gets a plus 4 or so for yesterday, he can't move up.
Ras today:
M49.1-O48
I don't see Gallup being 3 points ahead of Ras for McCain.
ARG poll up:
http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/
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