Joe Biden doesn't need to do much in this debate. Everyone, Republicans included, knows the guy knows policy detail and foreign relations cold. He really doesn't need to do much to prove he has mastery.
Normally, "time of possession" is a key signifier in football of which team is likeliest to win the game, but in this case the opposite seems true. Think of it -- all anyone cares about in this debate is what Sarah Palin says.
The Republican base wants to hear her because they like her and identify with her -- we've heard this chorus countless times on the road in McCain volunteer offices. She warms Republican base hearts. On the other hand, Democrats believe they're about to witness an epic train wreck. So does the media. The expectations could not possibly be lower for this one.
For those who worry about expectations being so low that she can't help but beat them, that she did well in Alaska debates (by being spunky and bluffing through with gimmicks like patting a "stack of solutions" on health care), consider this:Capitol Hill sources are telling me that senior McCain people
Some might be concerned that this is all about purposefully lowering expectations... and then you watch that Couric interview. That was not some gambit, that was real. If this is an elaborate expectations-setting ruse, I'm sure the multiple days of ridicule leading up to the debate aren't worth it.
are more than concerned about Palin.
The campaign has held a mock debate and a mock press conference; both are being described as "disastrous." One senior McCain aide was quoted as saying, "What are we going to do?" The McCain people want to move this first debate to some later, undetermined date, possibly never. People on the inside are saying the Alaska Governor is "clueless."
The inevitability of this is like when Nebraska used to run that option in the mid-90s with Tommie Frazier at QB. You knew exactly what play was coming... and you couldn't stop it.
Only Joe Biden can mess it up... by running up his own time of possession.
9.29.2008
Memo to Joe Biden: Let Palin Talk
@ 11:46 AM
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527 comments
FIRST !!
nice post Sean
Nate is on NPR right now guys, started at 10 CT.
You can listen online here: http://www.wbur.org/listen/feed/shoutcast.asx
"You know, McCain scares me, he runs around like a broody hen"
"I'm NOT a Georgian!"
hahahaha. That caller rocks!!
From what I'm hearing, Palin is going to try a couple of new things - shorter answers and go more on the attack. I don't think more meanness will help, but she might be able to hold off disaster this way.
I'm all for Biden to save himself the possible case of foot-in-mouth disease, but he should answer a question posed to him succinctly and then look at Palin, "And your thoughts?"
one thing biden must avoid is a repeat of mc's rude behavior; he should look at palin. yeah, he needs to relax and be himself and let palin do her 'thing.' given the low expectations for p., it is not unlikely that the commentariat will say: she did better than expected. almost anything other than dead silence would be better than expected. well..maybe not.
Mark Halperin is a liberal hack
Yes, definitely. Play it safe, demonstrate competence, but he doesn't need to try to decapitate Palin. She'll do it all by herself.
Ask Halperin if Palin believing dinosaurs and people co-existing should be taken into consideration when she could be one heart beat away from the red button?
OMG !!
NATE ON RADIO !!LOL
Nate, you're on the spot with the facts, that's impressive.
"Most Americans don't care about foreign policy aside from Iraq" - Nate
"Ask Halperin if Palin believing dinosaurs and people co-existing should be taken into consideration when she could be one heart beat away from the red button?"
hahahaha.
Ask Halperin if he believes in Witchcraft.
I agree, Biden needs to keep his answers short and simple and let Palin hang herself with her own ignorance.
I really enjoy cashew butter. Anyone else?
Wow, it's not often I think Nate has missed it big time.
"Everyone knows Biden knows the facts" is exactly wrong. Undecideds probably don't know anything of the sort, and this debate is still about undecideds in my book. Biden needs to do what Obama did: Look presidential, respond at length with intelligent answers, and be warm to his opponent.
To put it more bluntly.. give her enough rope to hang herself with! http://www.funderpants.com
It doesn't help to know foreign policy "cold" if you are mostly wrong.
Hey libs!
How come Obama is still only a "Toss up" in PA, MI, and OH?
I guess he just can't close the deal.
Even the liberal MSM say he hasn't put those states in the way.
And everyone knows you can't win the Presidency without Ohio. That hasn't been done in a LONG time. Ohio chooses the winner.
OMG..black women on radio
C'mon guys, what does a VP matter? It's not like McCain would be the oldest elected President in the history of the United States or anything, is it?
IS IT?? Oh crap.
McCain Landslide !!!
I like it how some black people try to minimize their support of Barack Obama. That caller from Georgia, Valerie, sounded very black, and she seemed too timid to really shout out "Barak!". I think it's a sort of hidden reverse Bradley effect.
NPR is a liberal hack
Good job Nate. I'd give you a B. You'll get an A if you can avoid clearing your throat on radio next time.
obama is not black
he's half black
Nate
you rock on Radio
you should have your own radio show
shadow, African Americans in Georgia, up until a couple decades ago, couldn't openly speak their support for anyone, especially another African American. It will take a generation to get over hiding their support apart from the voting booth.
Biden would be best served with giving as much detail as he can and spinning populist whenever he can. Watch the hyperbole because that is where gaffes are measured with an experienced candidate.
All Palin has to do is not puke on herself and she gets no less than 40% approval. The expecations are so low coming out of GOP camps that a pukeless night for her makes her the next Harry Truman.
Remember, this is the era of lowest common denominator politics. Biden can fill our heads with information all night about the genuine concerns of the assertion of Russian hegemony on Georgia, the Bush screw up called the Middle East, or the debacle of a fix that is the Belarussian parliamentary elections. She will win because she has the 28% who will be on her side no matter what not admitting that she is not qualified, but cute and a Christian soldier.
No matter what, she has 28% support and low expectations. A win is a puke free night for Palin.
Respectfully, I disagree, oh master.
The expectations are high for Palin. In the same way that Obama had to demonstrate that he was competent in the field of international issues, Palin must prove that she is competent. She doesn't have to show she is the equal of Biden, but she must show that she deserves her nomination.
Alex North:
Biden can not speak directly to Palin to ask her her thoughts on the subject. The rules do not permit either an interchange between candidate or for a follow-up question by the moderator.
These rules were demanded by the Republicans in return for their agreeing to a VP debate.
Jesus, a Tommy Frazier option reference too?!
This site has gone from something I'd never heard of to my absolute favorite site on the internet in exactly 5 months.
Well done, sirs.
You can only do so much with lowered expectations. I could put my 2-year-old on that debate stage, and nobody would expect her to do very well -- but even if she did an incredible job, much better than expected, nobody would think she'd won. Of course, no matter what, it would be "newsworthy."
Ha, good luck getting Joe Biden to shut up; very funny.
Also, I agree with the commenter who said it doesn't matter how well Joe Biden "knows" foreign policy when he is wrong about practically everything.
blacks like McCain
they will turnout in huge numbers for McCain
McCain Landslide !!!
I think Biden should worry about his own game. I think it would be easy for him to base a gameplan on Palin, but actually I think all he needs to do is answer the questions, punch at McCain. I worry that Palin and the McCain camp are pulling a bit of a fast one, trying to hoodwink people into thinking Palin is hopeless and everybody will think she is awesome when she has done moderately ok.
But for Biden its feels a bit like an NFL team going in against a college football team. If that match up happened, I don't suppose the Colts would spend tooo long looking at tapes, and spend more time than usual grooving Manning's arm, getting the runners in shape, making sure the defensemen are in shape, etc etc. As long as Biden remembers not to showboat he should be fine.
any new polls ?
Excellent post!
I agree
Thanks
When Palin doesn't have an answer, she turns on the beauty queen charm. Biden, treat her as a politician, and don't get charmed. Imagine, when you look at her, that she has a long beard, and treat her the way you would anyone, man or woman.
Nate on the radio is GREAT NEWS!!! For John McCain!!!
Not exactly true, Right Wing Conspiricist. Ohio has only played a decisive role in two of the last 7 elections. Only GWB 'needed' Ohio to win. Given the electoral map this time, it would be more accurate to say that Ohio is a must win for McCain, but Obama has many other easier paths to victory with winning Ohio. It is certainly a swing state that usually goes to the consensus favourite, but don't confuse correlation with causation.
Fu** Mark Halperin
Fu**ing Liberal hack
Hey libs!
How come Obama is still only a "Toss up" in PA, MI, and OH?
I guess he just can't close the deal.
Even the liberal MSM say he hasn't put those states in the way.
And everyone knows you can't win the Presidency without Ohio. That hasn't been done in a LONG time. Ohio chooses the winner.
September 29, 2008 10:56 AM
Hey Right Wing Wack Job?
Why can't McCain hold onto traditional GOP strongholds like VA, NC and CO? I guess he can't close the deal...
Ugh, the Tommy Frazier reference gives me a stomach ache! I remember him running all over my Gators in '95. On the upside, Palin's an idiot.
Voice of the Midwest said...
"A win is a puke free night for Palin."
Even if she pukes it will be blamed on Biden for being a mean old sexist.
I think if Palin does poorly in herr debate, McCain's coffin is sealed. His campaign will undergo huge internal strife because of infighting between the staffers. His base will begin to realize their futile position and fail to show up for the polls. I think this entire election might be decided on Thursday night. The best McCain can come away with is Palin beating expectations and not flubbing major league. Even so, she is unlikely to move the polls in the positive direction since McCain himself has caused his own collapse. The only thing her debate can do is escalate his collapse.
TOP does not actually correlate with win percentage, iirc.
I just read this post again. It is one of the hackiest pieces of hacky hack that I have ever read. What a jack-piece.
Nate Silver, you were once a respected baseball analyst. Now you are a hack. Are you OK with that? There is still time to flee the commentariat.
Palin will destroy Joe
McCain Landslide !!!
OH = 20 EV
CO + NM + IA = 21 EV
I think the Obama camp will take that 3-for-1.
That said, I don't think they are giving up OH. The ground game looks to be geared to working right up until 12:01am, 11/5.
Oh Sean wrote it. Well I guess he is the hack.
What are the odds on Palin developing some short-lived illness or minor injury on the night? Dog eating her homework? Car breakdown?
Yeah, Biden has to be really careful not to browbeat her too much. If Republicans see VP Mom up there getting a thrashing, they're going to circle the wagons and go on the attack. Nate is right, Biden has to let her self-destruct.
Isn't it funny how Palin went from the next Ronald Reagan to the next Dan Quayle (or worse) in just 2 weeks in the spotlight. It is especially astounding considering that the media was allowed to ask her questions for only 1 hour during that entire two weeks.
McCain's decision-making ability is in serious question here. On the spur of the moment, he picked a VP that he had only ever met once, and laid a giant egg. On the spur of another moment, he "suspended his campaign" with much drama and then brought it back 45 seconds later after accomplishing nothing. Another giant egg.
What's the next obnoxious gimmick, John? More Paris Hilton ads aren't going to cut it this time.
My impression of Palin is a person who used newspaper to wrap fishguts. I doubt she followed national affairs for years at a time. It is hard to getup to speed with no foundation. She can't even speak in generalizations because she doesn't understand the questions.
Read the by-line, people!
Most important thing he needs to do is keep a straight face.
I'm not being facetious.
Nebraska should totally go back to the option offense.
Please - let her talk!
CBS is hinting that the Couric stuff they released was the GOOD STUFF!! They have worse stuff, they might use it tonight...
All Biden has to do is let Palin talk and talk.
He has nothing to prove.
If he can get to repeat her "The earth is only 6,000 years old and man and dinosaurs walk together because she has seen the footprints in rocks"
It will be SO over.
Today´s polls?
Yup, this is SEAN QUINN'S post, not Nate, nopers.
This is exactly what my wife and I were saying last night. Palin can only memorize so much - as soon as she runs out of memorized material on a subject she just repeats herself or starts fillibustering. Biden should give a short sweet answer then yield the balance of his time to the governor of the great state of Alaska.
"How come Obama is still only a "Toss up" in PA, MI, and OH?"
I would wait to make any estimate on these states and their trend lines until Wednesday morning. A full trend concludes Wednesday to Tuesday. The digestion of the debate and the bad two weeks McCain has unfortunately weathered cannot be measured on a Monday, but a Wednesday.
What is conclusive in each of these states in more stable polling since August is that McCain cannot get above 44.5% in these key states. Conversely, Obama cannot get below 46.5% in these key states. What does this mean?
McCain has a ceiling of support. Any time a known quantity hits the ceiling in consistent polling, it is not a good sign for the brand name ticket he or she carries. In this case, the brand name is Republican.
When you face a lesser known, or even unknown, candidate like Obama and he is polling at a consistent level over the known quantity, you can disregard margin of error to make up the difference. The ceiling has been met.
Remember, whenever your polling numbers are consistently under 50% and your negatives are at or near 40%, you are a sitting target for a candidate from a non-incumbent party in bad times.
McCain, like it or not, is the candidate of W. Bush's party. The baseline negs are too high for McCain as a result. If McCain loses, he will have been beaten by the Bush family three times.
Palin may do much better than many people expect. She certainly did not sound incoherent in a 2006 gubernatorial debate. Here's the link:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y1-B-OyQ-KI
The problem with Palin is that she isnt a career politician.
McCain, Obama, Biden, Hillary - all were planning their run for the presidency in their early 20s (maybe early 40s for McCain). They appear well prepared because its more or less been their goal for a long time.
Palin couldnt even be bothered to run for something bigger than Mayor of a small town until she was in her 40s - which puts her 20 years behind Obama and 40 years behind Biden. Its not that she didnt get good experience there, its that the experience wasnt useful for this stage. No more useful than it was for running Hewlett Packard.
Biden should essentially ignore her. Not in the McCain way - but he should basically just hammer McCain over and over again and praise Obama, but not defend him. Basically ignore her attacks.
"CBS is hinting that the Couric stuff they released was the GOOD STUFF!! They have worse stuff, they might use it tonight..."
Oh sweet lord, tell me it's true. News like this is candy to my eyes.
To back that up, I read something about an unnamed McCain staffer saying she was clueless. Clueless is a pretty brutal word to describe your own candidate. McCain fucked up so bad picking her. Next time, John, don't roll the dice buddy, mmmkay?
CBS is so in the tank for Obama. From the people who brought you Rathergate...
Quick thought on the Senate races, I wonder if there are states where the Senate candidates coattails could help Obama? Take Louisiana for instance. Mary Landrieu looks set for re-election, any chance her vote + large black turnout could help flip Louisiana. And then theres Montana or West Virginia.
By the way, in my view the Dems should shut up about 60 seats in the senate. There is no point giving the GOP a pyrrhic victory in November the 5th by letting them say 'well at least the Dems didn't get a 60-40 majority in the Senate. The Dems are gonna make some good gains in the Senate, take what we can, enjoy it if it tunrs into say 55-45 once Lieberman (having been kicked out of the D's caucus) and Bernie Sanders are taking into account.
my boss ate my lunch
:-(
"Palin will destroy Joe
McCain Landslide !!!"
Have you ever heard of going to the well too often?
Sarcasm and humor are great, but 20 posts in every thread saying the saemt thing -- that's just spam.
We get it. Give it a rest already.
Spot on!
Rising fast on reddit:
http://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/747d4/memo_to_joe_biden_let_palin_do_the_talking_at/
RWC -
That mean mean Katie Couric. How dare she ask questions during an interview!
It would be a mistake to assume that a quiet Joe means a self-destructing Sara. We joked about the Couric interview; lots of folks I've heard blame Kattie for being mean and harsh (yes, another world out there.) Joe needs to be clear, knowledgeable, and point out when she is totally spaced out so that the thousands of folks who don't follow this on an hourly basis can see what a danger she would be. But he has to be active and not assume she will self-destruct--what we see as self-destruction, a lot of viewers would otherwise see as "sweet, folksy, down-to-earth" etc. Joe has to push the debate beyond that and expose her inexperience.
T.J.
"How come Obama is still only a "Toss up" in PA, MI, and OH?"
Looking to the right-hand bar shows 85%, 82%, and 60% win percentages respectively for those states.
But your question isn't about the status of these states done by a complex data-driven polling aggregator. You're asking why news media, which live and die by ratings, would show battleground states to be a "toss-up" or "dead heat" or whatever they call them.
The same media that pretended Hillary was still in it for three months.
Do you *really* not know the answer to that?
Palin is a local politician totally out of her death. I would pity her, if it were not for her unweening arrogance (she actually wants to be president some day - at least Quayle realised that he could never be more than a bad VP).
Anyway... I think that there is a serious expectations gap. Palin has to be pretty dumb not to memorise a group of mildly coherent talking points. She may not fully understand, it may seem slightly artificial, and her arguments may not be very well developed - that doesn't matter. She just has to survive this debate, not win it. Palin will be praised by the Republicans and the media as a veritable Jefferson for about five minutes, and McCain will be riding his own VPs support up a couple of points in the polls for a similar amount of time.
"To back that up, I read something about an unnamed McCain staffer saying she was clueless. Clueless is a pretty brutal word to describe your own candidate. McCain fucked up so bad picking her. Next time, John, don't roll the dice buddy, mmmkay?"
Oh, they'll never admit that it was a mistake. Heck, they are now "counting on her to revive the race". Geez, why not put a bit more pressure on her? That will sure help.
From what I can tell, they want to "unleash her". So she's not going to be any better informed or better to make clear comments, but she's going to try to bluster her way through it instead of being nice as she was before.
I don't think that's going to work. And it only risks tanking her favorabilities even further as people who liked her start to wonder what she is really like.
Adam the liberal media would rate states as Obama locks if they could, but they can't, because its too far from reality.
This thing is down to the wire, baby!
A barely relevant aside: Nebraska's 90's dominance was owed to a vicious, nasty, dominant offensive line. I think all of Tommy Frazier's front 5 went to the NFL, as did fullback Cory Schlesinger.
The ground game: it works in football and it's what Obama is winning with in politics.
Does anyone get the irony of Sarah Palin. So far all she has shown she can do is give a nice pretty speech. Thats it. Isn't that what Obama was accused of for so long?
Nate, why are you calling yourself "Sean Quinn" for some of your writing? Do you have some kind of identity crisis going on or something? Weird.
Nevertheless, good observations Nate.
Typo... Palin is out of depth, not her death.
Does anyone get the impression that this campaign is running off the story arc of the final season of the West Wing?
A young minority candidate (obama), an old 'maverick' republican, Last minute family wedding, crisis (financial not nuclear) but possible war in middle asia, etc
Most important- a VP candidate who is going out of their way to lower expectations by saying how bad they are as leo McGary did.
The repubs are doing an excellent job of lowering expectations. look at her videos, she will be fine in a debate setting i reckon.
right wing conspiricist said...
CBS is so in the tank for Obama
what did you expect ?
MSM is 100% in the tank for liberal Obama
I'll just be happy if Biden only says three stupid things.
Palin has dumbed herself into a base-beloved fundraising power with no appeal to independents. Let her stay there, hope nobody notices Biden and move on.
ben said...
Nate, why are you calling yourself "Sean Quinn" for some of your writing? Do you have some kind of identity crisis going on or something? Weird.
Nevertheless, good observations Nate.
stupid bit**
thats not Nate
its Sean
they are two different people
Don't count Palin out. Remember the format. She will be asked a question with no follow up. Also, keep in mind she did great with the convention speech.
If her handlers can prepare her for the right questions, she could do very well.
foregone conclusion
When did Quayle realise he couldn't be President? I guess after his campaign tanked in '96. (Although there were still runours of him thinking of a run in 2000).
Though I agree that Palin really is just a local politician way way out of her depth right now. I think the real question for Palin as far as the debate is concerned is can she remember all the talking points she needs to.
right wing guy that doesn't know how to spell conspiracist said:
CBS is so in the tank for Obama. From the people who brought you Rathergate...
Sooooooo in the tank! How dare those bastards ask simple questions which Palin can't answer without stumbling around like a fool. She should obviously get training wheels for her interviews.
In the Care Bear debate format that McCain-Palin successfully fought for when they threatened to not let her debate at all, Palin will not have enough rope to hang herself.
People looking for a disaster won't get it, unless an honest journalist is allowed to ask her questions that take more than 45 seconds to answer again. And after the Couric interview, it's probably not ever going to happen again in this lifetime.
Biden needs to do what Obama did: Look presidential, respond at length with intelligent answers, and be warm to his opponent.
Bingo. Do not be mean. And, even worse, do not be condescending.
"And everyone knows you can't win the Presidency without Ohio. That hasn't been done in a LONG time. Ohio chooses the winner."
Actually... I believe the line is that historically no REPUBLICAN has won the election without winning Ohio. Thus, McCain HAS to win it. Obama does not.
If this holds true, I would LOVE to win Ohio, if only to cock block McCain from even the possibility of winning.
"Adam the liberal media would rate states as Obama locks if they could, but they can't, because its too far from reality."
They are of course not locks. That term would be silly. Generally the media uses "toss-up" for any state within 5 points that I've seen. PA/MI are right on that 5-point edge, and OH is certainly much closer, so they're well within their right to use that.
You seem to think, however, that there's a black-and-white distinction here: a state is either a "lock" or "down to the wire". The rest of us see it for what it is: a 5-point lead. Is it possible to lose all those states? Of course. He currently has a 10% chance of doing so according to this site. Does that mean there's a 50/50 chance of losing more than one of them? I think you'd be very hard-pressed to make that case.
And if you want to be taken seriously here, using liberal as an insult in every sentence is not the way to do it. The media is far more lazy and ratings-driven than biased. Believe what you want, but that's not going to find much traction here.
stupid bit**
L2sarcasm, Joe.
some music for the lunch break
Rightwingconspiracy,
Firstly, Miss Couric was scrupulously fair in her interview. Heck, she didn't really ask any truly hard questions. Simply screaming 'CBS is biased!' is not enough. Not only must you prove a trend of bias, but also show how that bias had an effect on the interview.
Secondly, you claim that the race is in fact down to the wire, and the liberal media are lying to us. Well, let's see - are Quinnipiac lying to us? Rasmussen? PPP, Mason-Dixon, Gallup, ARG (OK, probably aren't telling the truth, but that's just lack of ability)? Many, many states are turning beautiful blue (Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Virginia), shown consistenly by polling. This is far from locked up, but I doubt it will go down to the wire (I predict that Obama will gain just under 300 electoral votes).
ben said...
stupid bit**
L2sarcasm, Joe.
;-)
Don't even start up on CBS being in the tank for OBAMA. Bob Shieffer went after Wesley Clark for speaking the truth about McCain, and shamelessly mischarecterised what he Clark said. I also saw Shieffer grinning like an idiot when Palin was giving her nasty little speech at the RNCC. He was obviously unaware a camera was on him.
Not to mention that CBS and Katie Couric edited the embarrasing parts out of McCain's interview during Obama's trip to the Middle East. They even lied about it after being outed by C%L. I'll post the video and CBS statement if you like,
Apparently, NBC's David Gregory (Karl Rove's dance buddy) was on Morning Joe today peddling a bunch of silly bullshit about how Obama lost the debate, and how that gave McCain an advantage. But that Obama shouldn't lose heart because he has such a great ground game.
Just wow.
Tom Brokaw and David Gregory have recieved their talking points from GE and the RNC, and are now in full-on spin mode for McCain.
Remember, Brokaw told MSNBC to remove Olbermann from co-anchoring election coverage, and he's inexplicably gonna be moderating the 2nd presidential debate. Gregory is anchoring General Electric/NBC's election night coverage. Both are in the tank for McCain. It doesn't get any more blatant.
Also, MSNBC wouldn't run an attack ad against McCain after Bill O'Reilly objected.
What's striking to me is that people are still not sure if they should vote for Obama because "they know nothing about him" and he's new. Yet, Palin is an instant hit because they identify with her.
The contrast between them is that he is running for president and she's not. Oh o.k. (sarcasm)
Palin could give Americans the middle finger (sounds elementary I know but I try not to cuss :-)while being spunky and fluffly on debate night and they will still vote for her.
All that national enquirer talk is foolishness and people need to stick to the important facts.
The fact is dinosaurs or not, she simply is not ready to be V.P.
The Pennsylvania daily tracker has been updated. It's not Obama +7 (was +4). See: RCP.
i need new polls !!!
where the fu** are they ?
Joey,
Fun fact. Before Bush II, no Republican had won without California either. Without California (the land of Nixon and Reagan), the GOP is a subtly different party.
Does anyone get the impression that this campaign is running off the story arc of the final season of the West Wing?
It's because the westwing character is based on Obama. If you google it you will find articles discussing it.
"Most important- a VP candidate who is going out of their way to lower expectations by saying how bad they are as leo McGary did.
The repubs are doing an excellent job of lowering expectations. look at her videos, she will be fine in a debate setting i reckon."
You know this year does seem a little too dramatic, like some sick twisted universal overlord wrote a huge script and kept us all watching. The Michigan/Florida thing, Iowa surprise, Hillary Crying, NH Surprise, Super Tuesday dead heat, Obama's run of 15, Rev. Wright, Hillary Claws back, Obama wins, Obama to Europe, Celebrity ads, Dem convention, Sarah Palin!, Rep Convention, Sarah Palin is Reagan, Crisis, Suspending Campaign, Sarah Palin is Quayle, debates. Jesus Christ, what else can we pile on this shitburger of drama. I don't think I can handle another month.
"What's striking to me is that people are still not sure if they should vote for Obama because "they know nothing about him" and he's new. Yet, Palin is an instant hit because they identify with her."
This is why opinion polling (as opposed to polling that asks what action people intend to take) is worthless.
People make a decision then justify it, not the other way around.
Speaking of the Couric interview, did I hear correctly that they are going to air a Part 4? I think I read it could potentially contain even MORE embarrassing material than what we saw that was edited out.
Anyone know about this? I'd die to see it.
Morning Call PA Tracker:
49-42 Obama.
http://www.muhlenberg.edu/studorgs/polling/documents/Release_9_29.pdf
How did that season end?
Can't remember where I read it earlier today but there are rumors that during mock debates SP was atrocious. It makes sense as they've shifted their debate strategy to have her "just be Sarah". WTF? I thought that is what she's been over the last couple of weeks. I pray CBS has more footage.
TPM is reporting CBS has the even more embarrassing part 4 and will be showing it just before the debate.
Biden has to avoid comments like: "When the stock market crashed, Franklin D. Roosevelt got on the television and didn't just talk about the, you know, the princes of greed."
Both candidates need to make sure they do not step on their Presidential Candidate's toes, like BOTH have done so far.
I wonder if there are states where the Senate candidates coattails could help Obama?
I don't think coattails generally go up ballot. People who generally have an opinion on Senator are also going to have an opinion on President. But, people with an opinion on President will not necessarily have an opinion on President. The only way down ballot candidates should help up ballot candidates is by driving up turnout in a favorable demographic. I doubt Landrieu or Warner or either Udall will especially bring lots of Obama inclined voters to the polls who otherwise would not have voted.
If that were the case, Adam, that's quite unfair to Palin. They should have just released it all at once and SUNK HER! rather than allowing her to continue in misery.
Seriously, I think it's a breach of journalistic ethics to string it out like that.
I'd be interested in some commentary regarding the Florida numbers in light of the projection.
I don't see the trend being that favorable for Obama. I definitely see it as a close race, and I'd like to think that Obama can win it, but the numbers don't really demonstrate that to me.
RightWing - How did that season end?
If I recall correctly the Republican won, but not because he won the vote. It became clear at the end that the Republican party had used some ethical tactics to limit the traditional Democratic base from voting in some toss-up states...
Oh wait, I don't think that was West Wing.
"Seriously, I think it's a breach of journalistic ethics to string it out like that."
What tenant of journalistic ethics demands you release an entire taped interview at once?
I'm checking my SPJ guidelines and I can't find it anywhere.
"MSM is 100% in the tank for liberal Obama"
Yeah, sure...the liberal media thingie. The MSM is so well-organized and powerful that Democrats have had power in Washington DC for all but a cup of coffee here and there for the past thirty years.
Please, spare us the victimization thing.
The media is owned by conservatives and conservative campaigns are given carte blanche by the media moguls to intimidate the news room with threats whenever they have the gall to question the party of the King.
Get over it. The media is bending over backwards trying to keep McCain and Palin in the game. A blowout doesn't help ratings. You will get your way in a few weeks when they pull out a red herring to keep this thing close.
82% of Americans believe America is going in the wrong direction and John McCain will get no less than 45% of the vote. Yet, you think the media is liberal and that they only fashion the debate to benefit liberals, not maintain ratings.
Please. Two words: FOX News. Shake it off. I thought conservatives had disdain for the "victim class", anyway?
Diageo Tracker Unchanged:
47-42 Obama
http://diageohotlinepoll.com/
If anyone steals the election this time it will be Obama with his phony ACORN registration drives that register pets and dead people.
BTW, this shit has been going on for a long time, folks.
President Clinton to ABC's Peter Jennings: "Don't go there, Peter!"
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=3wJMO7cmhHo&feature=related
Liberal Media Bias... MY ARSE.
Westwood- i know the Santos character was modeled slightly on obama but isn't a bit freaky how much of the script is playing out in front of us!
Consider all the talk of a contested dem convention, a repub candidate who gives commitments on judges but doesn't mean it and then picks a right winger to solidify the base
plus of course what happens at the end of the series is prescient of the 'a heartbeat away from the presidency talk'
"If that were the case, Adam, that's quite unfair to Palin. They should have just released it all at once and SUNK HER! rather than allowing her to continue in misery.
Seriously, I think it's a breach of journalistic ethics to string it out like that."
I agree. They can only parse it out on consecutive weekdays only. They cannot skip a day. So if they had 4 parts, it could be Wed, Thu, Fri, Mon. They can't skip Mon, Tue and put the last part on Wed.
The general journalistic ethic that the reporter reports, and is not himself part of the action. I know that this is held more in the breach than the observance, but I think that this is a particularly bad case of it.
http://www.spj.org/ethicscode.asp
Here's the short version if anyone wants it.
Prediction,
today's Gallup poll will show Obama with a 9 points lead 51 to 42
Palin will not talk about economics or foreign policy. If she can help it, she will talk exclusively about Obama. Biden can't just let her do that.
There are no journalistic ethics. Most of the people on t.v. are not journalists. They are lazy bumsge trying to get ratings.
Chris Matthews made me sick last Friday. I'll listen to Pat Buchannan before I'll listen to him again.
Sen Biden should always show utmost respect for Gov Palin, even when (or especially when) she makes her kooky points about Russia. Any signs of condescension will count against him. In my view, his three word mantra should be "respect," "brief," "factual" (to avoid the FDR/TV type gaffe).
M.
Today McCain's speech without any future. Only against Obama. That's obviously the "new strategy".
Palin's speech better as normal. No more "bridge to nowhere" but against Biden and Obama.
I agree, foregone. Sandbagging embarrassing footage does not show neutrality. If it's a 4-part interview, announce that beforehand and show it on four consecutive days. Selective editing and odd distributions, if not inherently biased, certainly look that way.
"The general journalistic ethic that the reporter reports, and is not himself part of the action. I know that this is held more in the breach than the observance, but I think that this is a particularly bad case of it."
First, I don't understand how releasing the interview in parts breaks that.
Second, that's not really a tenant of journalistic ethics. Many journalists prefer not to be a part of the story for some good reasons, but it's not considered an ethical breach.
I think the quote in the article about Palin being absolutely "clueless" in debate prep is wishful thinking. I've only seen one source for it, talk-radio guy Ed Schultz, and as lefty guy, I doubt that he has "Capitol Hill sources" among the Republicans who would blurt that kind of language to him. Nonetheless, he's been quoted well beyond the credibility of the paragraph.
I haven't seen anything like that language about Palin used by anyone else on the inside of the campaign.
I'm not envisaging an absolute disaster, but I'm willing to be surprised.
So, fellow junkies, are you after a solid new fix like I am? Four (five if you count that weird Battleground) national tracking polls not enough for you?
The News is Very, Very Good: We now have at least one state tracking poll, the Morning Call/Muehlenberg Gollege Pennsylvania poll.
Today's pdf is here.
The first four days totals show steady gains for Obama:
9/26 O 47, M 43
9/27 O 47, M 42
9/28 O 48, M 42
9/29 O 49, M 42
Obama leads 48 to 36 on "who would better handle the economy," McCain, in his "strength," Iraq (I know but bear with me), leads on 43 to 39.
Based on when the link appeared up on RCP today, it looks like this poll comes out a little after noonish EDT.
"There are no journalistic ethics."
Utterly incorrect. Most journalists take professional ethics *very* seriously, and most accusations of ethics violations are just people who wanted a story posted with their preferred slant.
"Most of the people on t.v. are not journalists. They are lazy bumsge trying to get ratings. "
Can't disagree with that. I'm tired of journalists being lumped in with TV commentators.
If Biden takes the advice this could be the first debate that stars crickets...LOL
Inkstain,
I think if they have any dirt on Obama it will air this Wednesday.
Not only would it play in to "The October Surprose" but it would deflect attention from what I anticipate will be some pretty rough CBS footage.
Biden is a self-impressed blowhard who can't help but try to dominate the mic. It's his nature. That's how he rolls. He's also a buffoon. He's much less outright stupid or politically savvy in a national media sense than Governor Palin, but then again, his expectaions bar is at least above ground and pretty high at that.
The Veep Debate is by no means done and done. Stay focused. Stay on targe. And what have you.
Remember Biden can be short if need be...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XberX_t-WvI
"I think if they have any dirt on Obama it will air this Wednesday."
If they had any dirt on Obama, it would have aired in the primaries. And did.
The word is Palin is being trained to go out and attack Obama the whole debate so she won`t have to answer any questions directly and keep Biden on defense.
Seems like if she is in attack mode all night she will look shrill but I guess thats better than looking like a total moron.
Hopefully Gwen Ifill will be asking tough questions since the McCain people are already threatening her about asking to many questions about foreign policy.
Anyway the expectations for Palin are so low it would be hard not to exceed them.The VP debate is usually a pretty boring affair.
I just skimmed through some of that Youtube Alaska governorship debate.
She's actually not bad but those were questions that she could rely on ideology to answer.
Nate,
I want BIDEN to be BIDEN. Sure he has to be disiplined, but I want him to have some fun on Thursday night at the expense of McCain and Palin. Bollocks to caution.
Inkstain
I refer anyone to Robert Novaks column early this year: a team of GOP "operatives"(ex-cia,ex-FBI)swarmed for months and found nothing on Obama. Needless to say Novak was dismayed.
Here's a tougher question for RWC:
If the media is liberal enough that it unfairly gives Democrats elections by influencing voters, what would you want to do about it?
Should there be a media bias handicap that would require Obama to forfeit the election if he wins by less than a certain margin?
(Evan Thomas actually pegged this at 15%, then later moved it to 5%; of course, conservative blogs never noticed the second number. It's interesting that during the rollout of Palin the right was actually arguing the reverse, that media smears of her were actually helping the Republicans, in which case they have nothing to complain about.)
Biden will be informational, deferential, charming, and most of all, between the lines.
I have this feeling that she is being fed three or so zingers she will say over and over again no matter the topic. In time, that gets worn.
Things she should avoid: meanness, shaking her head when saying the previously mentioned zingers, and not calling the moderators by their first name repeatedly or not referring to her adversary as Senator Biden.
She needs to come off nice more than she needs to come off as competent. It sounds weird, but we are in an "American Idol" society and her meanness to this point has come out in limited interviews, helping to push up her negatives.
Attacking Obama is what she will do, though. They cannot help themselves.
The best line Biden can use if she constantly attacks is: "You guys sure as heck like talking about Senator Biden and myself because you are scared as heck to talk about the everyday problems of them (points to camera), the American people".
Noun, verb, 9-11.
For those commenting on journalistic ethics and CBS/Palin. Here is what Ben Smith (Politico) has on his blog:
"A source familiar with CBS News’ plans clarified that this is part of the "Vice Presidential Questions" series with Biden and Palin. The recorded segments are scheduled to air Wednesday and Thursday before the vice presidential debate. (The series is based on the Presidential Questions series, in which Couric asks the candidates the same set of questions on wide range of topics from policy to character to leadership.)"
These potentially more damaging Q/A segments were already planned to air right before the debate. They likely will have Biden's and Palin's responses back to back on Wed and Thur nights.
It's very simple.
The debate will feature Palin making relentless attacks. Her snide swipe at community organizers in her convention speech: expect to see far more along those lines. The less she has to give concrete answers and the more she can turn the debate into a mudslinging contest, the less attention will be paid to her lack of knowledge on the issues.
I assume her debate preparers are not dumb; this is the only rational approach for them to take to attempt to score points in the debate. Having her try to answer interview questions is clearly disasterous.
moondancer do you know where I can find that article?
Obama Gets Post-Debate Boost in Voter Trust on All Issues
Monday, September 29, 2008
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While the results for the first presidential debate Friday were mixed, voters in surveys this weekend gave a boost in trust to Barack Obama over John McCain on a cross-section of issues.
Obama is now trusted more on all 10 major issues in new Rasmussen Reports national telephone surveys Saturday and Sunday nights. He even has a statistically insignificant one-point lead over McCain in trust on the handling of the war in Iraq. Just two weeks ago, the Republican had an eight-point lead on this issue.
Predictably, 85% of Republicans trust McCain more on Iraq, while 80% of Democrats give the nod to their candidate. But unaffiliated voters trust McCain more by a much narrower 45% to 39% (see full demographic crosstabs).
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).
Friday night’s debate focused on national security issues, McCain’s strong suit and the area in which he has consistently led Obama in terms of voter trust throughout the year. In a separate survey taken the following night, 36% thought Obama won the debate, 33% gave the advantage to McCain, and 31% were undecided.
Nationally, after weeks of a neck-and-neck race, Obama has been pulling away from McCain for several days in the Rasmussen Reports national daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
Many of the trust issues are volatile, with the two candidates often quite close in surveys over the months and the leads changing with some frequency.
Women continue to trust Obama more across the board, in many instances by sizable majorities. The gap, however, has narrowed dramatically in some cases among men, who have been more favorable to McCain. Men, for example, are now evenly divided at 47% each over which candidate they trust more on the Iraq war.
With Congress and the administration haggling over a $700-billion taxpayer-backed bailout plan for the troubled U.S. economy, 47% of voters trust Obama more to balance the federal budget versus 43% who feel that way about McCain. Similarly, 48% trust the Democrat more on taxes while 45% trust the GOP candidate more.
McCain has generally led in terms of voter trust on the economy issue by a slight margin, particularly in the three weeks leading up to the debate. Last week he proposed delaying the first debate until the bailout plan was approved in Washington, but a plurality of voters (48%) thought that was a bad idea.
Men now trust Obama more on balancing the budget 45% to 44%.
In only one survey since April has Obama led on the taxes issue, primarily because Democrats are viewed as more likely to raise taxes than Republicans. In the new surveys, men remain suspicious of Obama on the taxes issues and still trust McCain more 50% to 44%. Women favor Obama more by similar numbers.
Voters currently trust Democrats overall more on handling the economy but Republicans more on the issue of taxes.
Forty-seven percent (47%) of voters now trust Obama more on negotiating trade agreements, compared to 43% who rate McCain higher. This is an almost exact reversal of the numbers from a survey two weeks ago.
The Democrat has an eight-point lead in terms of trust on Social Security, the widest margin in this area since May.
In two areas where Obama has consistently led McCain for months, health care and the environment, he is now trusted by over half of voters and has record leads on his opponent.
Obama is even trusted more – 43% to 40% - on immigration now, another area where McCain has generally maintained a solid lead for the last couple months. He also leads the Republican 47% to 42% in trust on abortion, an issue where the two men have been largely tied for the past two months.
See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs for Trust on Issues I and II available for Premium Members only.
Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.
Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
This telephone survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports September 27-28, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
Surveys of 1,000 Likely Voters
September 27-28, 2008
Issue
Obama
McCain
War on Iraq
46%
45%
Immigration
43%
40%
Environmental Issues
54%
37%
Balance Fed. Budget
47%
43%
Negotiate Trade Agreements
47%
43%
Taxes
48%
45%
Social Security
49%
41%
Healthcare
54%
38%
Education
53%
36%
Abortion
47%
42%
"If the media is liberal enough that it unfairly gives Democrats elections by influencing voters, what would you want to do about it?"
Allow the marketplace of ideas to filter out the media. But it's hypothetical, because it's not.
"Should there be a media bias handicap that would require Obama to forfeit the election if he wins by less than a certain margin?"
0%. There is no liberal media bias. It's a myth created by Nixon, and it worked so well to buy him time (even though he was guilty as sin) that conservatives have trotted it out constantly for three decades and made the myth collectively accepted.
The Pundits on Friday:
David Broder - "Palin won, she relates to common people and she's a alpha dog with lipstick"
David Brooks - "Palin won, although the liberal media will attack her. She is a one woman heterodyne and since they are out of touch with the common people they don't understand her language"
Bill Kristol - "Sarah Palin, the new star of the republican party continues to mow over the towers of the democratic party by being herself - in touch with the common people, unlike the elistist on the other side"
Everyone should be watching the House debate on C-Span. It's fascinating.
adam,
I think she's smart and possibly a good debater but from what I've seen she seems to know the economy and foreignt fairs a mile wide but a centimeter deep. This makes it very hard for her to rebut.
Has an October surprise ever really worked? Is there an election out there that people can point to where the person trailing made up ground only after the October surprise?
"Has an October surprise ever really worked? Is there an election out there that people can point to where the person trailing made up ground only after the October surprise?"
Bush's DUI in 2000 almost did it.
There was that VP who was discovered to have been treated for clinical depression. Im sure the inkstain can come up with a name.
Can't remember the guy.
I follow world events pretty closely (new junky) and I was thinking about Palin's comment about "Putin rearing his head" as he comes into US airspace via Alaska...
Now, let's think. How many times has Putin come to the US since he's been in power?? Maybe twice since Bush has been President?
Maybe once more when Clinton was in?
And if you were in Moscow would you fly EAST(?) across the whole of Russia and then over Alaska and then another 4000 miles to Washington DC... or would you fly WEST over Europe and the Atlantic and land in DC??
Somebody from the Obama campaign should research how many times Putin "reared his head" over Ms Palin.
She will self destruct on Thursday.
As the comic said, "You can't fix stupid."
Paul
vanessa,
That's exactly what I'm saying. She won't rebut because her knowledge doesn't allow her, so expect most of the responses to anything Biden says to be non sequitur attacks on Obama, liberals, raising taxes, whatever.
Will it work? Highly doubtful. Indepedents hated McCain's attacks. But it's better for her than the alternative, which is to actually debate the issues.
Lani said...
There are no journalistic ethics. Most of the people on t.v. are not journalists. They are lazy bumsge trying to get ratings.
Chris Matthews made me sick last Friday. I'll listen to Pat Buchannan before I'll listen to him again.
Tweety, Pat Buchanan and Andrea Mitchell on OBAMA: Wearing Sunglasses Makes You An Elitist
http://www.crooksandliars.com/2008/09/27/hardball-for-chris-matthews-sunglasses-means-elite/
NBC's Tom Brokaw shilling for McCain on Press the Meat
http://www.crooksandliars.com/2008/09/28/meet-the-press-brokaws-fairness-facts-pulled-out-of-thin-air-to-make-mccain-look-better/
Actually, I thought Katie Couric was just lobbing softballs at Palin. They were open-ended, simple policy questions. And she didn't interrupt.
Gwen Ifill's questions will be much more serious.
Anyone born in Scranton knows all about letting other people dig their own holes.
The format seems to favor letting Palin babble while Biden attacks McCain and counters factual errors. I expect Palin to be reasonably well prepared to spout the neocon line over and over and over and over and...
She's toast.
michael what does that mean?
"There was that VP who was discovered to have been treated for clinical depression. Im sure the inkstain can come up with a name."
Eagleton, but that came out during the summer. It came out that he had undergone shock therapy.
Diane said...
Palin may do much better than many people expect. She certainly did not sound incoherent in a 2006 gubernatorial debate. Here's the link:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y1-B-OyQ-KI
Here is what she is saying:
IN PALIN ENGLISH
"well, it's more than just health care benefits though, and you would have to, you would have to just do it Larry, in answer to your question. But no, this is also, a very, tsck, important, significant in terms of what the voters said back in 98, here in Alaska when they defined, via the constitutional amendment, what marriage is, and marriage was defined as traditional, one man, one woman, would constitute a marriage and inherent in that constitutional amendment, i believe, is reference also to benefits. So, yeah, you would have to follow the judiciaries rule there, till voters would be given the authority to go back to the ballot box and clarify that constitutional amendment, if need be."
IN PLAIN ENGLISH
" Right now constitutionally they have the right (I, if elected, will obey the law). I would have to give health benefits to same sex couples (but I would not be happy about it). But I believe that a marriage is between a man and a woman. So, as a governor, I reserve the right to put it back on the ballot to clarify that detail (because I'm really against it), if need be (if you think it is a bad idea, consider this, I might not)"
I think the key is, she does better when she brushes off specifics and generalizes. As I understand, her strength is saying thing like "is that what really people care about?" then generalizing the problem in a way that no one can disagree. So if they're talking about the economy, Biden goes into details of trickle down vs trickle up economics and she brushes that off saying " it does not matter, what matters is that people want security in their lives" 50% of the people will agree with Biden but everyone will agree with Palin. So she wins. I think that's how she won in Alaska. But if there are follow ups (like in the Couric interview) asking for further specifics, that is where she gets stuck.
I've been thinking about this for a while; she talks to the specific audience. If the audience is a small town-hall and there are no cameras, one can say anything and get away with it; if the community loves guns, one can talk about hunting and how she'll get rid of hunting restrictions than go to the next town hall and claim that we need more hunting restrictions. That is what she is used to. But if you're talking on National TV you have to pick your vices. You can't be on both sides of the issues. That is McCain's and the Republicans' problem at the moment.
Gallup
Obama 50-42 unchanged
Gallup:
Obama 50
McCain 42
No change.
So much for that "huge outlier dropping off" theory.
Gallup unchanged, 50-42
This is important because a big Obama Thursday rolled off the averages.
Looks like Obama is holding his leads for now.
Gallup same as yesterdays
Well, we all expected a dip on Gallup, and.... Oh my God there wasn't any! 50-42 still. Gallups numbers looking more and more like a reaction to McCain's Flight from the polls to Washington.
Vanessa:
It means that just that.
First rule of holes:
If it's you, stop digging.
Second rule of holes:
If it's them, never interrupt digging.
50-42 Gallup.
Same as yesterday.
Gallup 50-42 - unchanged...
The Diageo internals show yesterday's interviewees with even better views of Obama from the debate and less for McCain than the Sat. ones....more good news
There's a word for Joe Biden: avuncular.
Basically its means "like a benevolent uncle", and it fits Biden to a tee. Every family has a benevolent uncle - he's rich, a bit conservative and boring, but he never forgot a birthday and his nieces and nephews adore him.
Palin, if she is too strident and passionate, will come across as the mean girl from school bullying good old Uncle Joe. If she ignores him and attacks Obama, she'll come across as rude and disrespectful.
Worse, the format is much more constraining, originally to help Palin. Given that they now want Palin to "go on the attack", that helps Biden.
Nate has it exactly right - Joe Biden just has to focus on being Joe Biden, not the garrulous and boring Joe Biden, but the pleasant and likeable guy we all know he is. No harm in showing patience, empathy and even some old-fashioned gallantry to his young opponent. It may not go down with the young folks, but older people and women (i.e. swing voters) may love it.
Inky - It's "tenet" (a palindrome) not "tenant"!
I agree with Shadowguidex's reasoning and conclusion that a predictable (horrible) performance by Sarah Palin will only speed McCain's campaign's dissolution.
I am worried only about two things from the Gaffe-O-Matic (God love him). First, that he will reach back into history and talk about Henry Ford's contributions as the inventor of the airplane (or some other stoopid goof), thus lowering the bar for Sarah Palin even further. Second, that Sarah Palin repeats her Katie Couric performance by saying something as silly (and laughable) as her foreign policy chops because the state she is chief excecutive of is surrounded by Russia and Canada -- and half the audience and Biden crack up with laughter. I don't know how Amy Poehl on SNL was able to keep a semi-straight face when she heard Tina Fey chanelling Sarah Palin, but the Gaffe-O-Matic needs to do better.
On the other hand, if Sarah Palin says something really stupid, it would be a mistake not to laugh at it. But Biden can't be seen as laughing at her. That's probably going to be tough.
As I predicted yesterday after hearing Molly Hooper of Fox "News" spin on MDNBC, Palin is going to try to give answers as short as possible. And as Sean here suggests, the Gaffe-O-Master shouldn't try to fill up the dead space around those brief answers.
Let Sarah Palin be Sarah Palin. As a trial lawyer for a long time I can assure you that if you give her the time she will revert to her normal voluble vacuous self. While we know she's doing a terrible job, and the Republican base has suspended disbelief for a whole set of reasons, Sarah Palin thinks she is doing a great job. She's in her comfort zone. It worked for her in Alaska, and she will eventually go with her instincts.
Also, we are discounting Gwen Ifill's role. She is one smart, tough journalist. She'll ask probing questions. However, Palin seems to strike out more dramatically from the soft ball lobs.
Sit back and enjoy and Sarah will get back to all of us on that.
All this is good fun and I notice the preponderance of Obama fans like me commenting.
BUT NOW HEAR THIS FOLKS...
This is an historically hard election even though it is a Dem year. We are trying to break the color barrier in the White House and that is and will remain a hard task for the next 36 days.
SO A WORD TO ALL OF YOU...
Go to www.barackobama.com, create a user account, make phone calls to swing states- (easy to do, you just sit in front of your computer and call the numbers they give you on the screen), DONATE MONEY AND ASK YOUR FRIENDS TO DO THE SAME.
(I emailed 6 friends last week and, boom, $500 Obama bucks)
Get off this site from time to time and TAKE ACTION even if it's only 1/2 hour a day from now till Nov 4.
Elections are won one action at a time, one person at a time, one vote at a time. Many small raindrops feed the mighty river.
DON'T MOAN ABOUT MCCAIN AND DON'T DROOL OVER OBAMA.
Just do something today.
Paul
Does anyone get the feeling that a lot of the top choices on the McCain Short List for Veep kinda said "Thanks but no Thanks?" I've had this feeling for a while. The more you read about her, the more you think that the Red Party decided they had no chance of winning this election, so they'll do something interesting, pray really hard, and focus on the midterm in 2010.
C-Span bailout update:
Barney Frank is a 1930s cartoon caricature of a senator.
Is it just me, or have the state polls really slowed down lately?
inkstain: Maybe everyone realized McCain is screwed and stopped polling?
I think that the Eagleton comparrison is not right. Eagleton was dropped (or left the ticket, can't quite remember which) on the back of a specific issue. (His treatments for depression.) I think the calls against Palin are more to do with her innate abilities. She really doesn't SEEM to have the right level of intellect, she doesn't seem to meet a basic minimum level of intellect.
Paul,
I give as much as I can (maxed for the primary and almost there for the general) and I'll be going to Nevada the weekend before the election for the final push.
SUSA Florida Poll:
48-47 McCain.
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=bae88e59-f8e1-4ea1-9397-5c19f91abcc1
Adam,
Are you sure that independents hated McCain attacks?.
Morning Call/Muhlenberg College Poll
Pennsylvania
OBAMA 49%
McCain 42%
http://www.muhlenberg.edu/studorgs/polling/documents/Release_9_29.pdf
While I'm in full agreement that a message to Biden should be, "Let Palin Talk," I feel compelled to also warn that he not underestimate his opponent or under-prepare for this debate. In continuing with your football example, many times the bigger, better team comes out to the game with the wrong attitude or the wrong mindset. This attitude is oftentimes an underestimation of the weaker opponent which can sometimes lead to defeat (ie. Cal-MD, 2008). The underdog should never be underestimated. Therefore, I urge Biden to treat this debate like any other. I urge him not to assume guaranteed victory. As they say in sports, he needs to show up with this gameface on and leave everything on the field.
SurveyUSA poll on Florida (09/27 - 09/28, 599 LV):
McCain: 48 (51 last week)
Obama: 47 (45)
inkstain,
I really like Barney Frank, he is one of those disarmingly honest congressmen. Though he does seem a bit of a throwback, I think thats no bad thing.
"Are you sure that independents hated McCain attacks?."
The little trackers that some of the TV stations had on the debates seemed to think so.
realist: What were the previous SUSA FL numbers, do you know?
inkstain,
As it is costly, they probably would prefer to do so at other times when their average doesn't bifurcate a significant event like a debate.
Will see some state polling This afternoon and Tomorrow.
PPP had some interesting teasers on the Florida poll. With 68% through, he held noteworthy lead.
@Green
Paul -- Good advice, but some of us can multi-task!
I'm the first to admit, I was dead wrong about Gallup. Apparently last Thursday's voting wasn't an outlier, though Wednesday was. This is a clear sign that Obama has a huge lead. Last night's Gallu polling had to be within 2 points of last Thursday's if my math is right. Last Thursday Obama won by about 10 points. What's particularly interesting is the Battleground Poll that consistently shows McCain up 2. If we look back at the last election that poll wasn't far off. It did have Bush with a 3-5 point lead consistently for the last 2 months in 2004. Bush ended up winning by 2.5 points. I wonder what they're doing different from everyone else. HOTLINE Obama +5 Research 2000 Obama +9 Gallup Obama +8 Rasmussen Obama +5 Battleground McCain +2. That's an outlier if I ever saw one. I understand it's 1000 people polled over 5 days and 70% of those polled ar 45 and older.
This post getting a lot of press. Hope Biden reads it :)
NM, found them:
08/04/08 09/18/08 09/29/08
McCain (R) 50% 51% 48%
Obama (D) 44% 45% 47%
Other 3% 1% 3%
Undecided 3% 2% 2%
Wow.
Nicholas said...
SurveyUSA poll on Florida (09/27 - 09/28, 599 LV):
McCain: 48 (51 last week)
Obama: 47 (45)
Now that you put it like that...
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=bae88e59-f8e1-4ea1-9397-5c19f91abcc1
Some of these polls have severely flawed internals. For example the one above Florida SUSA McCain 48 Obama 47. It has Obama winning Men by a point and losing Women by a couple points. That's not reasonable.
Plus, that's a likely voter poll. GOTV is will be huge for Team Obama in Florida.
Obama will not win Men and lose Women in Florida. Odds of that are close to 0%.
Obama +7 in PA is great news. I personally think McCain has to flip PA to win and I don't think he's gonna do it.
The intrade markets for Florida in RCP is McCain 48% Obama 51%.
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