9.26.2008

McCain's Mistake?

Forty-eight hours after the fact, I'm still not certain exactly what the McCain campaign was trying to accomplish with this whole drama surrounding the "suspension" of his campaign and toying with his idea of dropping the debate. Was it, as I argued yesterday, in fact an effort to increase the impact of the debate? Perhaps. Was it a razzle-dazzle play designed to distract us from Sarah Palin's poor interview with Katie Couric? I thought that was a ridiculous notion at first, but as more and more of the interview leaks out, I'm not as certain.

What I think McCain also might have done, however, is to confuse slightly different things: a tragedy and a crisis. In a tragedy -- say, a terrorist attack, or a Category 5 hurricane hitting a major American city -- people expect the political process to be put on hold. That's not to say there aren't political implications to such things -- decisions to be made, lessons to be learned. But those are the moments where we hope to come together as a country. Imagine if a politican were to run an attack ad during Hurricane Katrina -- this would seem completely inappropriate.

The financial tremors on Wall Street, however, were not a tragedy, but a crisis: an ongoing, slowly building, relatively forseeable event, but perhaps one lacking the acutely emotional impact. In that sense, it was more along the lines of global warming than 9/11. And in a crisis, people do not expect the political process to be put on hold. On the contrary, they expect it to go into overdrive to get them the hell out of the crisis.

Now, I'm making a semantic distinction here ... returning to Washington to work on the bailout would also be a perfectly approrpiate response to an economic crisis. But something about the timbre of the McCain response was off. They did not merely expect Ameriacns to view McCain's response as appropriate -- they also expected Americans to view it as honorable. But a crisis does not call for honor; it calls for cool-headedness, decisiveness, and hard work. One can argue about whether McCain has in fact demonstrated those things in response to the crisis, but I don't think that's what he was aiming for.

136 comments

Mike said...

All I know is I'm ready for this debate.

Diggsb said...

Nice distinction you make there - crisis vs. tragedy. I think you hit the nail on the head.

I'm still confounded though as to exactly what McCain is trying to do here.

Any thoughts on tonight's debate, Nate?

Ben said...

Wait, so McCain is back in again? After promising he wouldn't resume the campaign until a bill had been passed?

I knew this flip-flop was going to happen, I just didn't think it would be so obvious.

markymark said...

I am not sure that McCain wasn't doing anything save from trying to be dramatic. He wasn't going to be able to do very much, he must have known that, he has been around Washington for long enough. Maybe he thought the drama was going to help sort hte empasse out, just because it was dramatic? I am prepared to concede that maybe it wasn't just a brazen political move, I think maybe he was trying to help a conclusion. But whatever he was trying to achieve, I don't think he comes out of it looking good.

Real Joe said...

McCain will win this thing easy

Obama will be crushed !

even fake poll numbers here will slide

McCain Landslide !!!

Ben said...

And wait, why didn't he leave PALIN in charge while he was "gone"? Isn't she going to be the VP? The one who has to be ready to step up when the President is out?

Did he not feel Palin was ready to lead the campaign? Weird.

Karlo said...

I'm also curious as to what he was trying to accomplish. Partisan attacks aside, he is an older guy, you would think he would want to spend the days before the debate prepping and resting so that he looks vigorous on TV. What happened over the last 48 hours, with him running in and out of meetings and working late into the night, can't bode well for tonight. In light of that, I perhaps wonder if McCain truly did return to Washington out of some (IMHO misguided) sense of honor and belief that only he could bring consensus, rather than simply as a political ploy as some have suggested. If so, I still think it backfired.

*sigh* I really used to like Senator McCain. Candidate McCain is equal parts confusing and off-putting.

Robert said...

I think it the McCain campaign has finally discovered a way to time travel, having seen that they won tonight's debate before it took place they needed to find a way to increase publicity about it so more people will watch.

I'm going to go have open a bottle of wine and watch as Obama gets destroyed by McCain in the debate as the McCain camp is already advertising.

prairiecomm said...

I was at the local iowa dry cleaners this morning, and the woman behind the desk, republican, remarked to me, ~"You know, I'm really terribly confused. Nothing makes sense. This is the strangest election I've encountered. I'm very very confused about it all."

McCain's ego, which is surely large, must be taking a terrible beating just now. And if Palin drops out, what next?

I suspect the debate will be telling.

mark said...

this entire thing reeks for McCain, I'm surprised they let it happen, he's be much better off if he never made that announcement. I frankly, considering it the beginning of the end for him both in this campaign and politics.

Not to be "dramatic"
...

prairiecomm said...

real joe - please skip the platitudes - you waste all our time!

Michael said...

prairiecomm:

It's not that confusing. McCain has lost his marbles.

Jonny said...

I do believe that McCain pulled this all as a "game changer"; however, I also think that he did it out of a misguided sense of duty as was mentioned above.

There was a "McCain affiliate" on CNN this morning saying that he made this decision the same way he makes a lot of big ones - from the hip, open to some argument but fairly certain of the move.

I think this is unfortunately the "old McCain" that Republicans like so much - but it has potentially backfired on him very badly.

I can't afford to be too happy as an Obama supporter; I am not sure the play is done and there may yet be more to this than we see.

Tom and Lisa Wyliehart said...

I actually think that McCain does see the financial meltdown as a tragedy, not a crisis. Remember that he lives in a world where his kajillionaire friends think that middle class citizens make $5M a year. This is the group most personally affected by the implosion, and the ones sending him phone calls and emails and text messages about it.

DanOregon said...

McCain did nothing wrong except use the term "suspending" his campaign and putting the debate in doubt.
I think people appreciate mavericks, but it seems clear he's like one of those skittle tops, you never know which way he's going to go or what he's going to do. It seems pretty clear that he would have no problem allowing a lot of people, to spend a lot of time and money trying to solve a problem, before scrubbing their efforts out of personal whim.

Nicholas said...

I can't afford to be too happy as an Obama supporter; I am not sure the play is done and there may yet be more to this than we see.

Exactly. It seems so irrational and damaging, that I feel that I--and everyone else--is missing some crucial part of this strategy.

markymark said...

I just did a quick calculation, and if the only states that McCain wins are the ones that Nate has as red on his map, giving anything pink to Obama, then Obama would win the Electoral College 375-163. I don't think Obama is going to get to 400 but I think that COULD end up being something like the final score. If Nate's map is replicated as is (giving pink to McCain and pale blue to Obama, then Obama wins 316-222. The best I can see McCain doing is a 285-253 win, if he can get Oh, Pa, Va, Nv, and NH to switch to red. At the time of writing I think the Obama landslide is the likelier scenario.

moondancer said...

I already posted agreement with the idea that this was a diversion. I think they are very nervous about Davis and the Mortgage carcasses. And there is at least one reporter stating that according to unnamed senior McCainiacs, they saw her entire interview portfolio only slightly less devastating than her performance in mock debates. I think they were hoping for controlling the message enough to postpone this debate and take the VP date, then haggle until the election.

prairiecomm said...

It's not that confusing. McCain has lost his marbles.

No duh!

But I'm a flaming liberal. What I'm noticing is the dismay and confusion of at least one member of the republican base ...

Sullydog said...

Pretty penetrating, Nate. I think you're on to something here.

I also think Ben is on to something. IF McCain had REALLY gone to Washington to do some, you know, work, and IF he had left Palin in charge of the campaign, and IF she had done well, and IF he had stuck to his guns and said, "you know, this is going to kill me with the voters, but I'm going to stay and get this done while Obama talks to himself," and IF a deal had crystallized while the band played on at Ol Miss....well...I guess we start to get into some pretty big IFs there. But IF just some of those things had happened. Well.

That would have been....another universe, in a completely different spacetime dimension.

Sorry, I'm rambling. I've got the predebate jitters.

Also: realjoe? What prairiecomm said. If you want to spew childish slogans, go to a rally. And I would say the same to any incoherent Obama sloganeer here, too. I read this site for analysis and thoughtful commentary, not bluster.

This is an historic day. Days like this make you thrilled to be an American.

Ed said...

Where's Hillary?

How come she's not taking a leadership role?

Lev said...

I'm not so sure that the "suspension" is a part of a grander political strategy. McCain's been coasting on his POW story for as long as his political career has lasted, and he's never faced a close race for anything (not even 2000, since he was blown out by Bush). He basically won the nomination by default. I've never believed he's had very sharpened political instincts, and just about the only issue he gained any traction on--drilling--was kind of a fluke. He's used to winning without a fight. Kinda like Hillary Clinton was, and both campaigns seem to have met a similar fate...

tdc2000 said...

How would this gambit affect the race---

1. Sarah Palin, "for the good of the country and to help protect her family", resigns from the ticket.

2. McCain replaces her with Romney, to help him "fix the economy"

Considering McCain's risky moves already, is this move all that farfetched?

Alex said...

To add insult to injury, the Letterman effect is going to cost him Florida.
And what is it about that Mme. Couric that has unlimited access to the ticket, when they know she will cripple them with utter professional behaviour?

tibor75 said...

I think he overreacted. Some aid whispered in his ear how horrible Palin looked and that he needed to do something fast.

But I am too confused about what he was trying to do. Best case scenario - he comes to DC and saves the bailout. But...does he really want to do that? The public doesn't really understand the bailout. They realize it probably is necessary, but they are not happy about it. If McCain was "credited" with passing it, would that really help him. Hence you see this dance that Obama is doing around it. And it's the only thing you can do.

Drowzee said...

Well, it gave him less time to prepare...

And the narrative would be better if he'd waited until the last possible moment to arrive. He could then plausibly claim to have been working on the solution up to the deadline, in that case.

Just saying "Okay, gonna go debate" in the morning makes it feel like he realized that this wasn't playing as he'd hoped.

I do hope we get the McCain Wins ad used as a "Dewey Defeats Truman". That'd be great.

moondancer said...

ed
'
Maybe having a tantrum that she's not getting a crack at 2012.

Eric said...

Anyone see Rudy Giuliani as a viable replacement for Palin? 4 negatives as a replacement 1) McCain admits he made a mistake 2) Giuliani not an economy expert 3) Pro-Choice 4) Not a woman

Postives, 1) Giuliani would want the gig as he has no other office to aspire to (perhaps Gov?) 2) Game-changer, appealing to independents and undecideds as a centrist of sorts 3) Reinforces experience

Bottomline: If McCain feels he needs a game-changer, it's the only tool left in his box that I can see.

Ross said...

simple:

He tried and succeed at getting attention.

The problem was that it was never clear "for what?" Leaving the reason unstated let the media and every voter fill that blank in for themselves.

Tarr said...

Agreed with you on how it played out and how it will be viewed. But there seems to be a clear possible motivation for the move:

- If a compromise DOES get hammered out by Friday, then McCain can claim credit and look presidential.

- If the debate is cancelled, then the entire debate schedule is thrown into chaos, and the McCain/Palin campaign gets a chance to weasel their way out of the VP debate.

As it happened, Obama simply called McCain's bluff. There was no way McCain could give Obama the stage alone, so once Obama (and the debate comission) made it clear they were going forward, McCain basically had to give in.

So, it was a failed gambit on McCain's side, but perhaps it was a worthy gamble anyway. After all, they need game-changers.

MATT J. H. said...

The politics of this are not yet over, lets wait and see how next week goes for final judgment.

I believe the McCain camp expected Obama to follow McCain's lead back to Washington thus giving McCain the upper hand on leadership. Obama didn't co-operate though and thus made a very messy situation where McCain ended up looking rash and political.

Tonight's debate is critical. Obama need not win, just draw. McCain needs to change the momentum of the race which is good news because Obama is much more a counter puncher than a frontal assault kind of guy.

I would not doubt there to be fireworks on that stage tonight.

Eric said...

Romeny would be a more logical choice than Giuliani, but at what point has McCain done anything logical. Besides, if I were Romney I'd turn it down.

ali said...

I think you absolutely nailed it. I've got nothing to argue.

Ed, Hillary is hanging out with Bill, praying to the high heavens that Obama loses so that McCain takes office, dies, and puts Palin in charge. She is praying that Palin will fuck up the country beyond belief so that she can run in 2012 and rescue us from hell. Of course, only in the event that the USA has not been obliterated by then.

dlove said...

Not sure I go along with your distinction here. There are crises that require the suspension of politics as usual. Partisan sniping would have been harmful during the Cuban Missile Crisis for example.

Regardless, I think the real issue with what McCain did is that he shot from the hip, but went off half-cocked. He brought nothing substantive to the process and may even have made it worse by failing to anticipate the revolt of the house republicans and lead things to a successful result. It seems likely to rebound upon him negatively.

markymark said...

Just for comparrison, Clinton won the electoral college in 92 by 370-168. If you take Perot's votes out of the popular vote (and yes I am aware of the sloppy methodology that means) then the popular vote margin was roughly 53-47%.

t.a.m.s.y. said...

Nate: I'd be interested to know what you think of the report saying that the McCain campaign is in a mild state of panic over Palin's performance in their own mock debate (and mock press conference). Based on the Couric interview, it's no stretch to imagine that might be true.

So I don't discount the possibility that they were hoping to delay the VP debate to buy her more time. I can't come up with any other explanation (aside from that you already posited).

Kevin said...

I believe the McCain campaign was trying an early "October surprise" with the so-called campaign suspension and the request to "postpone" the debate. McCain certainly knows Obama has been looking forward to this debate; Obama has repeatedly stated that Americans should "wait for the debate" to see Obama truly in action vis-a-vis McCain.

It doesn't surprise me that McCain would try to get out of the debate with this "Hail Mary " tactic. The thing is, it didn't work. McCain was exposed again as misrepresenting himself when he didn't really suspend the campaign. Then it became obvious that he had nothing to add to the White House discussion on the bailout except to break up the tenuous bipartisan agreement.

In the end, I believe McCain's campaign blinked. He'll be in Mississippi, back to his old--and increasingly ineffective--tricks.

The debate is Obama's to lose. McCain has already revealed what a loser he is.

tibor75 said...

Matt,

I find it hard to believe that the McCain camp is that stupid. Why would they think Obama would go ahead? Even if Obama thought "hey, that is a GOOD idea", he can't go along with it because it just makes him look like a follower.

But maybe the McCain camp is that clueless. Maybe they figured the media or the Commission on Debates would force the postponment and then McCain would look presidential. Who the heck knows?

ogre said...

Obama's opening remark,

"Well first I'd like to thank you all for hosting this debate, and I'd especially like to thank Sen. McCain for showing up for it... as I think that the American people deserve to hear and see the people whom they might elect to the presidency."

John M. said...

Eric, I think Mittens makes a lot more sense, or even TPaw. I don't think that just because McCain is tanking the base will get over a pro-choice VP... especially not after they had a month of Palin.

Do you do it before or after the VP debate? I think I would try to do it soon so it goes relatively uncovered while the financial mess is getting sorted out and you have time to recover before November. Albeit the "pinch hitter" jokes would be brutal next week.

shadowguidex said...

"Just for comparrison, Clinton won the electoral college in 92 by 370-168."


Most elections are landslides. The last two elections have been rarities but the media makes it sound like all races are super close like those two. This will be an Obama landslide.

Ed said...

Moondancer,
If Hillary wants to position herself for 2012 I would think taking a leadership role in something clearly so important for the country would let her show off. Also, Wall St is a New York industry - I'm sure she gets money from the very people seeking this bailout.

prairiecomm said...

Wouldn't this all make an incredible novel/movie - truth is stranger than fiction!

Bee-ranom said...

Can someone please post the address to that 538.com-related forum?
Thx.

prairiecomm said...

Roles, anyone?

Dale Petrie said...

I think I know EXACTLY what McCain was trying to accomplish and it scares the bejeezus out of me.

Look at when he picked Sarah Palin. We all thought, "has he lost his mind?" After 6 months of talking about how Obama was too inexperienced, he picked someone who's never even been to Warshington (my friends)? It LOOKED like he thought he'd get Hillary supporters, but the automatic reaction many Dems had was that this would backfire. Surely from a logical standpoint, no one who supports what Hillary supports would vote for a ticket with Palin anywhere NEAR it.

But McCain basically faked us out...he knew that she was part of the religious right wing and she'd shore up his base, and he KNEW that if he focused on her personality and not her credentials, he'd win over low info voters. He also knew that Republicans weren't going to care about the experience message, because if you're a Republican, you're NOT going to vote for Obama (by and large), and you'll buy any argument that supports a vote for McCain, no matter how ridiculous.

But here's the deal. I think this whole pulling out of the debate is another one of these ploys that makes McCain look Looney Tunes, but which in the end is going to be a BRILLIANT move. Like Nate said, lowering the bar, but I think it goes beyond that.

I think McCain is setting the bar just about as low as it can go. I think he WANTS us to think he doesn't know what the hell he's doing. He WANTS us to think he's playing politics. He WANTS us to know that he went to Warshington and sat blank faced for 40 minutes without offering up the solution. And he WANTS us to think this whole thing was just a sad attempt to get out of the debate because he's scared...in fact, I think he ALSO wants us to think that this is the reason he tried to take over Palin's time slot NEXT Thursday.

And I even think that Palin's abysmal Katie Couric interview is part of the plan too. The need to set the bar impossibly low for her as well. They need people to go into both McCain's debate and Palin's debate, thinking they're both laughingstocks who have absolutely no idea, no plan, no chance.

And then, as we all know, debates are not won or lost based on who has the best grasp of the issues or who makes more sense from a logical standpoint...they are won or lost based on how you come off. If they can exude confidence, be able to demonstrate a rudimentary understanding of the issues and don't make any flubs, they've just WOWED America! Not only that, but if they can also pull their opponents into an embarrassing gotcha moment and throw out a couple of zingers, they know neither of these guys is going to be able to reach across that podium and slap them silly. NO ONE will be expecting this from either of them, and it will make it look like they cleaned the floor with the Democrats, even if the Dems actually win the debate by a million miles substantively speaking.

We get to a week from today, these two are going to be 10 points ahead if they pull this off.

PorridgeGun said...

Nate,

I think what motivated the McCain campaign to pull this stunt was... ALL OF THE ABOVE. That's why nobody has a definitive answer.

Sullydog said...

John M, Eric, et al: It ain't gonna happen. McCain is stuck with Palin, period. They can't drop her now. That specifically includes scenarios in which she drops out "herself," because (a) everybody with an IQ over 50 will know what really happened ("we need you to do the honorable thing, Sarah,") and (b) it has to call McCain's decision-making into question. If they lose Palin, it's over. It's McGovern-Eagleton all over again.

AnotherMike said...

I think all this super duper secret explanations for what McCain did are unnecessary and the simple answer is likely the correct answer (Occam's Razor and all that):

McCain thought he would appear nonpartisan and a leader. If Obama agreed, Obama would look weak. If Obama disagreed, he would look partisan and selfish. Unfortunately for McCain, the media and the public rightly saw this as a political ploy and Obama held his nerve. Instead of putting Obama in the box, he painted himself into a corner. It was simply a political miscalculation--nothing more, nothing less.

FISH said...

There was something else that McCain was doing. He was manipulating the media cycle to focus attention on himself.

The media reverted from reporting how Obama's numbers were increasingly higher, how Obama's response was presidential and informed while McCain was stumbling, etc.. all of that was gone. Instead all we were hearing was: will there be a debate, are McCain's actions needed or warranted, what is McCain thinking, will McCain attend the debate, McCain McCain McCain.... as if this man was the center of the f-ing universe.

As someone who used to admire senator McCain, I am deeply disappointed and saddened by this conduct, and hope that we do not have to suffer through a McCain presidency.

prairiecomm said...

Yes, but what a commentary on the oddities of human nature!

John M. said...

Tibor, I remember the McCain campaign strongly anticipated that Obama would bomb his foreign trip. They've misunderestimated him a couple of times now.

As far as this move, I think McCain wanted to show the American people that he got how urgent the crisis was after his last week of not handling it correctly. Obama taking the lead on the joint statement pushed him to try to one-up Obama as far as appearing bipartisan, serious, and engaged.

McCain should have flown to Washington earlier and gotten heavily involved in the actual negotiations, and then he could have suspended his campaign because he was so busy actually helping. As it is there was already a deal, the house Republicans walked, and he didn't have anything to contribute. I really don't think he had anything to do with the walkout, to be honest.

prairiecomm said...

So, are you all going to debate parties? I remember as a child, going to alternate friends' houses for the various kennedy-nixon debates.

MATT J. H. said...

I was at the local iowa dry cleaners this morning, and the woman behind the desk, republican, remarked to me, ~"You know, I'm really terribly confused. Nothing makes sense. This is the strangest election I've encountered. I'm very very confused about it all."

I bet its confusing. I watch this race every day and I have no clue what McCain is doing. The facts are McCain nor any in his campaign have any clue what they are doing.

We're watching a man who makes impulsive abrupt decisions. He lurches from day to day like a small fishing vessel caught in stormy waters. We're watching two men with polar opposite approaches to leadership. Its the steady hand vs. the river boat gambler. McCain needs a momentum changer, lets see how he goes about getting it.

AnotherMike said...

I perhaps wonder if McCain truly did return to Washington out of some (IMHO misguided) sense of honor and belief that only he could bring consensus, rather than simply as a political ploy as some have suggested.

If that were his intent, why issue a unilateral declaration calling on Obama to follow his lead? By doing that he made this political as he and his campaign certainly knew. They counted on America not being smart enough to see through it and they got it wrong.

eve said...

I think Nate gives McCain and his campaign too much credit. Sadly, I used to do so myself.

McCain knows his campaign is in big trouble. He is not trying to help with the bailout. He is looking to control the daily news cycle.

McCain's strategy has become nothing more than to cause a big hoopla to try to change the narrative. This week he chose the bailout and the debate as his method of trying to distract us from Palin's interview and to get his name as the lead story instead of Obama's or Palin's.

If he really considered the bailout such a tragedy or crisis than needed his attention, he would have gone to Washington last week.

He made a bunch of noise and he got the attention. Just as he did with the Palin pick. Both are proving to be terrible campaign moves.

Once again, hoisted by his own petard.

Capt Zach said...

First post here...my best guess...

McCain knew that he was falling in the polls, and decided this was as good an opening as ever to try to take the lead again. Both candidates were staying away from the issue, as they should, since they're not on the relevant committees, etc. But the average voter doesnt know that, they probably expects "leadership" to be some Captain America, guns blazin', "git er done" type of nonsense.

So McCain had to charge into DC and take over. But the media wouldnt care if he just went in for discussions. So he had to conduct a publicity stunt showing him swooping in, taking over and saving the day. This would all reinforce his maverickness. If Obama caved in on the debate change, it would be extra points.

But Obama called his bluff, and went along w/ the Bush invitation. Now talks have fallen apart, and McCain knows he cant skip the debate. I dont see how this can be anything else but spin and damage control at this point.

Will said...

"McCain Wins Debate" = "Dewey Defeats Truman."

The ad was an obvious attempt to control the meme early, but it now comes off as hedging. It'll have to be pulled (if the GOP is lucky) - it'll be a constant reminder of the worst of the DC spin game.

Or maybe - just maybe - the ad was a spot of Democrat subterfuge. Why else would there be a Rick Davis quote (according to the Washington Post) among the pre-emptive plaudits? Rick Davis? Really?

markymark said...

I think Obama can play it safe tonight. It was often said in the primaries that a debate tie goes to the front runner. I thought that was a bit false in the primaries, due to the high number of undecideds (all the ties that were supposed to go to Hillary, I actually think boosted Obama as it showed that she wasn't head and shoulders above the crowd.)

BUT I do think that now a tie would go to Obama. I know that some of the GOP types around here won't agree, but I think this was a week when a lot of impressions started hardening. McCain threw his lot in with the house GOPers, if not actually then I think emotionally in the Bailout impasse, looked impulsive in the middle of the week, Palin really went on a slide, and Obama looked cool and Presidential in comparrison to the panic stricken McCain. McCain needs to change those impressions tonight. If he doesn't, then he doesn't get another chance for a while.

Gerbie said...

Carried forward from the last post
shadowguidex said...
This shit isn't even about winning anymore, McCain needs to drop Palin because he's risking the safety and security of the American people by having her a 72-Year Old heartbeat away from the presidency.


Right reasoning, wrong conclusion. To have an honest election where the issue is about a 72 yr old passing away, the election should be Obama vs Palin. Therefore McCain should withdraw to allow the people an honest vote on whether or not they will allow Palin running their country.

InkStain said...

"Or maybe - just maybe - the ad was a spot of Democrat subterfuge."

I wonder that too. It was such an awful, awful picture of McCain.

"I think Obama can play it safe tonight. It was often said in the primaries that a debate tie goes to the front runner. "

I've said that all along. Obama played for the tie against Clinton many times toward the end, and he'll do that here.

PorridgeGun said...

Also, I think it's safe to say McCain has run the most reckless campaign in modern American political history, while Obama has run the most cautious. I maean, can anyone honestly see Obama throwing a political Hail Mary?

Eric said...

Dale Petrie,

Your concerns are marked. The idea of setting incredibly low expectations, makes it easy to blow the epxectations out of the water. For example, the one moment we should've epxected for McCain to shine is the Foreign Policy debate. This is something we've anticipated for months and months and yet now it seems if he shows up, he's gotten off the canvas. If he does what he's supposed to do and win this debate, as Obama should win the economic debate, then McCain look s incredible. Not in reality, but in this alternate universe they have where Palin's got low expectations at the convention and the media and public, have a crush for a few weeks. She shouldn't fail miserably at the debate as she's been a broadcaster, pageant contstant, in competitive sports, and successful in political debates in the past. All that being said, I don't see how the last couple weeks hasn't cemented a lot of peoples opinions to where they're not going to change their minds. Tina Fey's mocking was a sledgehammer to Palin. It was the Wizard of OZ revealing the curtain to millions, a duh moment for lots of folks. MCcain says the economy is fundamentally sound. Letterman's pissed. Her interviews are crap. Not salvageable. McCain will not be ahead by as much as he was after the convention ever again. His only hope is to win all of the debates and catch up to even and hope it's enough. You can't have that bad of a two weeks and expect to overcome it easily by stepping up to the plate. He's down 20 in the 4th quarter of a basketball game. A great run here just catches him up, he can't have a 30-point play in his trickbox.

AnotherMike said...

tdc, if Palin resigns and is replaced by Romney, evangelicals go ape shit. It would be an historic meltdown that I savor just contemplating. Even McCain is not this stupid; he'll just have to ride out this campaign with Palin, for better or worse.

Will said...

Anyone hear if this debate theme has been amended, or is it still Foreign Policy And National Security Night at the ol' ballpark?

nkpolitics1279 said...

If we give McCain a Hat and a Cane- He will look like Mr Peanuts.

InkStain said...

"Anyone hear if this debate theme has been amended, or is it still Foreign Policy And National Security Night at the ol' ballpark?"

It's still FP/NS, but in a global economy there's barely any line at all.

Becky Sharp said...

McCain is a panicker. He takes drastic action before it is warranted.

Three of his strangest actions (the Palin pick, aborting the first day of the convention and now this) all happened following a slump in the polls. Its not a coincidence

But he overreacts. These were not major crisis points for McCain yet each time he jumped in guns blazing.

Bad judgment. Bad temperament. bad leader.

samtresler said...

It was leaked from the higher ups in McCain's campaign today that Sarah Palin has been bombing mock debates and interviews. The campaign now has a liability. Specifically, they had the Katie Couric interview, and the upcoming VP debates.

McCain can cancel on Letterman and do a 'surprise' interview with Katie Couric to overshadow the atrocity that was the Palin interview. And it by and large worked, no one has been talking much about how bad her rhetoric was.

But what to do about the VP debates? Well, realistically we only have 3 television spots and the American people, if forced to choose 2 out of the three debates would probably want to see 2 Presidential debates and drop the VP debate. So, he needed to get one of the debates canceled. He just failed to do that.

The VP debates are what this 'crisis' was about for John McCain's campaign.

InkStain said...

Question: Does the Debate actually start at 8 p.m. ET, as I'm seeing on CNN.com, or is that when their coverage starts?

LikesJazz-from-DC said...

To 538 Bloggers,

These days, everything has high stakes, timeframes are very short, and I (and many others) am quite afraid of both of the republican nominees, and get more fearful every week.

I wish Senator Obama well tonight. But I won't be able to watch. Never in my life of over 60 years has so much been on the line.

MATT J. H. said...

Dale petrie,

That was the stupidest thing I have ever read. McCain can't remember what bills he voted on last year and you think he has this diabolical plan to win the debate?

McCain is not a mad genius. just an angry old man with a ruthless ambition to become president, and willing to do or say anything to accomplish his goal.

Mccain doesn't understand nobody buys the "Maverick" crap anymore. He thinks he can run a rovian scumbag campaign and retain his maverick purity. He cannot.

McCain will be left going ultra negative, and probably ultra racial in the final weeks to try and salvage his presidential hopes. In the end, he will be nothing more than a side note on the hull of a historic Obama victory.

rdweber said...

I'd been on the fence about this election throughout most of the summer. I really like John McCain. I don't particularly care for Obama. I was seriously considering voting for a Republican for non-local office for the first time in my life. Then I met Tucker Bounds. When that ass-hat told Campbell Brown that Sarah Palin had executive and foreign policy experience because she was in charge of buying arms and equipment for the AK national guard, I started volunteering for Obama the next day. How can the RNC's top political operative possibly not know that the Pentagon equips the United States Army, to which the National Guard belongs? The thing is, he didn't just slip up...he defended the position 3 times(!!!) in the interview...

To the extent that the President is a figurehead, a McCain whitehouse would mean that the USA is run by the most incompetent group of fools ever assembled under one roof.

Map out the McCain staff and cabinet. Map out the Obama staff and cabinet. Forget the candidates themselves. Which group of advisers would you be less embarrassed by? Is it even close?

InkStain said...

"McCain is a panicker. He takes drastic action before it is warranted. "

Not that I think it's any better, but I interpret it as a man who has complete and utter faith in his own instincts. Whatever his gut reaction is to anything, he'll stick to it no matter how unpolitical it may be.

Gerbie said...

Imagine if a politican were to run an attack ad during Hurricane Katrina -- this would seem completely inappropriate.


Not too sure if I can agree on that one. Depends on the definition of during. Does this include an aftermath? Maybe you can ask vitims of of Ike today what their thoughts on an attacks ad during Katrina are. My Guess? We're willing to pay for it!

Capt Zach said...

I agree with Matt, I think people give McCain too much credit for being a Machiavellian genius.

markymark said...

Actually Shadow, whats interesting is that elections where there is no sitting president running are usually reasonably close.

2000- Bush v Gore squeeker till the end.

1988- bit of a landslide, but Dukakis ran a fairly inept campaign

1968- Close till the end, Nixon's trump card over Vietnam putting him over the top

1960- JFK v Nixon- very close

That being said, I tyhink the current trend seems to be pointing toward Obama winning fairly comfortably, unless McCain can turn things around tonight.

William said...

It's not Democratic subterfuge. That's not even possible. It says "Funded by McCain-Palin 2008". If Dems did that they'd be breaking the law, and Obama would not do that for something as stupid as that.

InkStain said...

"It's not Democratic subterfuge. That's not even possible. It says "Funded by McCain-Palin 2008". If Dems did that they'd be breaking the law, and Obama would not do that for something as stupid as that."

Obama isn't responsible for every stupid thing someone does in his name.

Seriously, look at the picture. That can't be the best picture of McCain they have.

Eric said...

Agreed, Tucker Bounds is the most embarassing spokesperson for a candidate I've ever seen IMO. What's more amazing is they keep sending him out there. Crazy? Also, did we allsee the Q&A with Couric/Palin aboout the bailout that Cafferty ran on CNN. That was bafflingly terrible. I hoenstly have never thought of CNN as partisan. AT this point I think they decided they have to keep it real and tell the truth which is Obama is a much better choice than McCain right now. Even the Wall Street Journal has jumped ship. WSJ was Safe McCain, now they're neutral. CNN was lean Obama, now they're safe Obama.

Guy said...

If McCain had chosen Romney he would be in a much stronger position now vis-a-vis independent voters. But of course, he would not have had base supporting him. That's his dilemma, having to fight a war on two fronts. There are no good solutions.

yiannis said...

Good Point Nate: McCain gets confused easily.

It happens my friends.

filistro said...

Past is prologue. We must look back to see the way forward. The only thing that could possibly happen next in this upside-down election:

1.) Palin resigns due to little Trig's health crisis

2.) McCain selects HILLARY as his running mate

3.) The country is stunned. The McCain-Clinton ticket sweeps to victory

4.) As previosuly arranged, McCain retires due to ill health after one year

5.) Hillary becomes president, runs in '12 as Republican incumbent

Note: I'm almost not kidding. This explains a lot, including her silence and Bill's odd cosying up to McCain, his praise of Palin, etc.

Sullydog said...

InkStain said...

"McCain is a panicker. He takes drastic action before it is warranted. "

Not that I think it's any better, but I interpret it as a man who has complete and utter faith in his own instincts. Whatever his gut reaction is to anything, he'll stick to it no matter how unpolitical it may be.

Yeah. We have a word for that kind of president:

Bush.

prairiecomm said...

McC wins debate More likely an accident by a techie who added it to their adwords or yahoo ppc campaign and accidently didn't pause it until needed.

Pssst said...

The people who say McCain will never drop Palin remind me of myself last month when I said McCain would never be stupid enough to pick Palin.

If there's one thing we've learned about McCain since the Palin pick, it's that he loves dramatic, risky, reckless, Hail Mary type moves. If it looks like Palin is dragging him down and he doesn't have much chance of winning, don't be surprised if McCain replaces her with someone else to try to change the entire dynamic yet again.

She could simply say that the campaign was taking too much of her time away from her newborn infant. The campaign would never even have to admit that it was her incompetence that lost her the spot.

Joe Lieberman's Conscience said...

John McCain = CRISIS

Sarah Palin = TRAGEDY

Tarr said...

Ink - if it wasn't the Republicans putting that ad out, they would be LOUDLY complaining about the smear. That they are not complaining says that it is from them.

Let's be honest - both sides are going to claim victory no matter what. This ad is only a little embarrasing. It's not a major gaffe in any sense.

booond said...

He's more frightening than W. He truly shoots from the hip without regard for the conclusion; voting against him is patriotic, for him psychotic.

Sullydog said...

@ filistro

1.) Palin resigns due to little Trig's health crisis

2.) McCain selects HILLARY as his running mate

3.) The country is stunned.


Amusing fantasy. I really mean that in a nice way. I wrapped my head around it for a few minutes. But it'll never happen. First of all, as I stated above, McCain is stuck with Palin. Any scenario in which Palin leaves the ticket reflects very, very poorly on Johnny Mac. Secondly...Hillary? Are you kidding? The woman red America loves to hate? No way, no how. And even if Hillary were to sign on to this fantasy, she would be so widely (and correctly) perceived as a Quisling that the entire affair would crater immediately.

Becky Sharp said...

>>The people who say McCain will never drop Palin remind me of myself last month when I said McCain would never be stupid enough to pick Palin.

You'd heard of Palin a month ago?

AnotherMike said...

I think the ad has to be legit McCain campaign. If it were not them, they certainly would deny it and that's not happened to my knowledge. Also, if it weren't them who purchased the ad, don't you think the Wall Street Journal would say so? It's just another campaign screw up by Team McCain. I'm not sure it's true, but if you govern the way you campaign, then that's all the more reason to support Obama. Their competence and judgment has been outstanding this entire year.

prairiecomm said...

John McCain = CRISIS

Sarah Palin = TRAGEDY


Bingo.

Will said...

I wish Senator Obama well tonight. But I won't be able to watch. Never in my life of over 60 years has so much been on the line.

I thought the same thing before my Seattle Seahawks met the Carolina Panthers in the NFC Championship Game several years back. I missed the greatest game that my team ever played (but please, no references to the disastrous game that ensued!). So take heart: there's no way that Obama can perform as poorly as you've already imagined that he might. Really, neither candidate will.

A steady hand is what the American people will be looking toward right now. John McCain has, recently, unwittingly painted Barack Obama as the more sober of the two gentlemen, and any gaffes by Sen. McCain will be magnified tenfold. I'm sure that McCain will stick to his Saddleback Script of Bush-like absolutisms in order to instill confidence in his campaign. Barack Obama will probably stick to his usual thoughtful tenor and might falter in the minds of some on this regard. But the man has looked like the less reactive of the two in this week, and his nuance might be reassuring to people who don't want another Cowboy Bush mucking things up.

At the end of the day, the real winner of the debate won't be the one who "won" or "lost" in words but the one who wins in meme control and mobilization.

MATT J. H. said...

When McCain gets in political trouble he gets jittery and goes for the home run. This approach will work out from time to time however as every baseball fan knows, more often than not leads to a strike out.

When Obama gets in political trouble he remains cool, doesn't make any rash decisions, instead of going for the home run, he steadies himself, looks to drive the ball straight back through the middle and a safe base hit. Obama's approach won't lead to many walk off home runs, but he is the guy the skipper wants up there when his team needs a clutch hit.

The question for the country is, if were in the bottom of the ninth with the bases loaded and two outs and down a run, do you want Mark McGuire at the plate, or Tony Gwenn?

Every baseball fan in the country knows the answer to this one.

Pssst said...

@becky

LOL, actually I think there was a post here about the various VP possibilities for McCain and it actually mentioned Palin.

So I used "the Google" and quickly determined that she would be a disaster... I think my vetting was more thorough than McCain's...

Sullydog said...

Becky, there's a HUGE difference between making an off-the-wall VEEP pick and dropping your VEEP pick. Just ask George McGovern.

I'm telling you guys, it ain't gonna happen. McCain will win or lose with Palin on the ticket. Or he will lose with Palin off the ticket. Those are the only realistic possibilities.

I do find it extremely interesting, however, that this whole Dump-Sarah/Sarah-Please-Quit meme has become so virulent, however. Fascinating!

Becky Sharp said...

psssst

I'd have picked you ahead of her!

MATT J. H. said...

1.) Palin resigns due to little Trig's health crisis

2.) McCain selects HILLARY as his running mate

3.) The country is stunned.


Your forgetting something, the GOP base hates Hillary. Sure they liked her while she was stabbing Obama for them, but they hate her.

Becky Sharp said...

Oh I agree - Palin won't go. It's easy for dems to forget but there's still a big Palin lovefest amongst the whacko wing of the GOP

Pssst said...

@becky

Thanks, but that's not saying much. I'd have picked just about anyone ahead of her. LOL

Becky Sharp said...

When I first heard it was "Palin" I thought they meant Michael Palin out of Monty Python. *Sigh* If only....

Sullydog said...

This whole week reminds me a little of the movie "Waterloo," starring Rod Steiger as Napolean and Christopher Plummer as Wellington. (And I'm talking about the movie here, not necessarily the actual battle.) As the battle starts to turn, Napolean thinks to himself: "Damn. Wellington has nailed himself to that rocky hill, keeps the center, and won't budge. I can't distract him, I can't get him to change his strategy, I can't seize the initiative. He just sits there calmly, and expands or contracts from the center as the situation warrants." (Paraphrased and embellished from memory.)

I can't remember: how did Waterloo turn out...?

AnotherMike said...

She could simply say that the campaign was taking too much of her time away from her newborn infant. The campaign would never even have to admit that it was her incompetence that lost her the spot.

You don't think everyone would see right through that? There's already speculation of her dropping out with that as the excuse. It would be McGovern-Eagleton all over and he's also dead with the base if she's forced off the ticket. I'm with Sullydog on this one.

Eric said...

All I can say is thank God McCain wnet to Washington DC yesterday. It sounds like there's going to be a bailout plan that passes this weekend. Without McCain we'd all be doomed. I'm so glad he put "Country First". IS anybody thinking this? Anyone? There are about 310 million folks in the US. Anyone think this? I'm quite certain Sen. MCCain is not that delusional.

Eric said...

Who would make a better VP?:

A) Sarah Palin
B) Paris Hilton

I'd go with Paris. I wish I was kidding...I'm not.

euklid said...

I thought McCain was supposed to have such great political instincts. Shouldn't he have instinctively reacted to a crisis, not a tragedy?

Becky Sharp said...

Maybe Mittens could run as an independent, with Huckabee as VP for bait. Then McCain and Palin announce they're quitting and the GOP get a fresh start

Pssst said...

@becky---

The amazing thing is that Michael Palin is probably way more qualified than Sarah Palin. As one of the world's top travel writers, he has visited probably 100+ countries all over the globe. He is a prolific author, accomplished public speaker, and strong supporter of various nonprofit organizations. And even his comedy work shows keen insight into human nature and politics.

Too bad he's not American.

couchpotatoxxx12 said...

Uh...I highly doubt H. Clinton would accept the VP nomination from McCain even on a cold day in hell.

Although it would be funny to see the map flip around if this happened.

Eric said...

If Mittens ran as an Independent he wouldn't have to pretend he's pro-life. That would've been a lot better. If the two party system wasn't so dominant Mike Bloomberg, Rudy Giuliani, and Mitt Romney all would be very likely choices. I'm one of Obama's big-time supporters, but I'll admit his opposition to the War in 2002 put in a spot to cpaitalize and become the leader of the Dems. Those other 3 might be more palpable to the country if not for their flaws within their own parties.

Pssst said...

@anothermike---

You don't think everyone would see right through that? There's already speculation of her dropping out with that as the excuse.

McCain is counting on the stupidity of American people. If they tell us that she's dropping out to spend more time with Trig, they know that a large percentage of people are stupid enough to believe it.

Becky Sharp said...

psssst

I agree. For that matter Katie Couric demonstrated far more poise and mastery of policy naunce than S Palin

Nicholas said...

New thread.

Dale Petrie said...

Eric and Matt J.H. -

I hope you're right, I really do. I'd like to have as much faith in the American public as you do, but I've seen stupid voters fooled too many times before to discount it as easily as you do.

Time will tell.

Guy said...

Eric, Paris Hilton is far more intelligent than Sarah Palin. I bet you anything in the world that Paris Hilton could have done a far better job on the Couric interview. Admittedly that's not a particularly high bar...

taralee said...

@ Matt

I take exception to your baseball analogy - Mark McGwire was pretty good at baseball (...because of steroids, but...)

...still - I think Dave Kingman would be much more appropriate.

Guy said...

Eric, unfortunately Paris Hilton is too young. What a shame.

Will said...

If John McCain and the GOP are actually serious about winning this election, Sarah Palin will not be dropped. Period. End of discussion. This development would spell disaster to McCain at this late date (about five weeks to go).

Although, all things considered, some advisors might be tempted to drop her when they sees the recent YouTube Miss Alaska footage (fuschia one-piece, canned saxophone). Hard to say who's plugging this video - the Scurrilous Dems or the Lusty Right. Shameless, the both of them.

Gerbie said...

filistro said...
Past is prologue. We must look back to see the way forward. The only thing that could possibly happen next in this upside-down election:

1.) Palin resigns due to little Trig's health crisis

2.) McCain selects HILLARY as his running mate

3.) The country is stunned. The McCain-Clinton ticket sweeps to victory

4.) As previosuly arranged, McCain retires due to ill health after one year

5.) Hillary becomes president, runs in '12 as Republican incumbent

Note: I'm almost not kidding. This explains a lot, including her silence and Bill's odd cosying up to McCain, his praise of Palin, etc.


Funny! however, if this scenario materializes at 3) Obama will take all 538 EV's! I think by now everyone is sick of trickery.

Jon said...

I think many people are prematurely judging McCain's gambit. He is very strong in unscripted situations and if anything is likely to give a better performance without rehearsal than with. Whenever he's given something to read or recite he sounds wrong but he is likely to be much better in a debate.

Obama on the other hand has been good but not excellent in debates and that was against the much colder opponent of Hillary. In terms of intellectual arguments in debates Hillary is far above McCain but he can more easily convey emotional connection and could easily win the debate and change the race dynamics as a result.

Jo said...

Another possible scenario:

1) Palin plays the Mommy card, withdraws garcefully.

2) enter Newt Gingrich, beloved fiscal conservative, who has already pointed out that in 2012 he's be about the same age as Reagan when he was nominated... And he's already the ultra-right GOP darling for opposing the bailout.

Eric said...

Guy said...
Eric, Paris Hilton is far more intelligent than Sarah Palin. I bet you anything in the world that Paris Hilton could have done a far better job on the Couric interview. Admittedly that's not a particularly high bar...

I'm actually completely serious. I thought it hyperbole to say this before, but at this point I don't. I have no doubt I'd make a much better VP than Palin. I'm not the least bit qualified, but I'm certain I understand the economy and foreign plicy far better than she does. It's not because I have a high opinion of myself; I think Paris is a better option as well. Seriously. She's bafflingly unprepared. She makes Dan Quayle look like Albert Einstein and Abrahma Lincoln all rolled into one. I don't want to see Biden debate her, I want to see Hillary debate her. Or better yet, Paris. Who would win that debate. I bet it'd be close. I'm not trying to be obnoxious. For those of you that didn't see the Couric clips, suffice it to say she was masterful in the Charlie Gibson interview by comparison.

Eric said...

What's the density of Siberia by square mile? Probably about 1 or 2people.

GoldenAh said...

I hope Hollywood remembers to nominate him for an Oscar. Truly bizarre performance.

Imagine this guy waging a war just to get his poll numbers up? Scary.

breadandwine said...

I keep thinking back to a Time Magazine piece that compared the two candidates according to their preferred forms of gambling. Obama plays poker; McCain plays craps. His entire campaign has looked like a game of dice. Things get out of hand, he shakes the dice and rolls for a big one -- Palin was a crapshoot, looked good for a while, but isn't going to play well in the end; this latest incident "suspending" the campaign and rushing off to D.C. is another crapshoot and this time it didn't work; it has ended up looking panicky and stupid.

Another point -- McCain's need to be physically present in Washington stems from his discomfort and unfamiliarty with modern communications technology. He doesn't understand email, web conferencing, real-time blogging, or any of the myriad other ways he could be involved in the legislative process without the need of physical presence. Obama does understand these things and knew that he could be "there" while not being there. McCain represents the past; Obama the future.

And this episode has underscored that.

weesa523 said...

Capt Zach... classic --
But the average voter doesnt know that, they probably expects "leadership" to be some Captain America, guns blazin', "git er done" type of nonsense.

Sad and yet funny because true.

As for Hillary... how could she even take a VP nom with McCain when she's a D? Is that even allowed? It would never happen... I don't see her compromising her principles just for that.

homunq said...

Palin drops out now, the one who replaces her is Biden. Early voting has already started. So even if you put Romney or Huckabee or whatever on the ballot in some places, it is just too late to change in others. So you end up with N electoral votes for McCain but N-x electoral votes for Romnabee and x votes for Palin. The VP selection is thrown into congress, who pick the democrat: Biden.

That is, of course, assuming that McCain could still win in that scenario, which is a stretch.

breadandwine said...

At this point, homunq, if Palin drops out, the Republican Party (McCain, actually) would appoint a replacement candidate. It would be like the Tom Eagleson replacement on the Democratic ticket a couple of decades ago. It's most likely the Republicans would put Romney in her place; he would be most palatable to their "base".

Alex S. said...

Tragedy vs. crisis? Hmm, I think you might have nailed it. Certainly, McCain thought thta he needed to do "something", and it had to be done fast. I keep thinking that McCain might start a war as a president if the economy is tanking because there is a small chance that this might revive the economy - obsessive gambling. The crisis was just a vehicle to change the race, and McCain thought that it was a sufficient cover to "shake things up" but you´re absolutely right: a tragedy would provide that cover (9/11 & Iraq), a crisis does not.
There will be more stunts, and more tries to shake up the vice-presidential debate. Did the McCain campaign expect to run out the clock with smiling Palin? Her interviews surely turned out worse than the campaign expected. SHe might drop out, but I don´t think Romny would be foolish enough to replace her. McCain´s only allies are Lieberman and Giuliani it seems. I agree with the poster who said that Giuliani might jump in.

weesa523 said...

I live in NYC and we hate, no.. HATE Giuliani. Lord help us if that were to happen. I can't see him pulling back a considerable amount of independents that have been lost to Obama so far.

egapre said...

情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,潤滑液,自慰套,威而柔,威而柔,威而柔,威而柔,自慰套,跳蛋,按摩棒,充氣娃娃,自慰套,潤滑液,威而柔,FleshLight,跳蛋,按摩棒,充氣娃娃,跳蛋,按摩棒,FleshLight,充氣娃娃,情趣商品,情趣網站,情趣網站,潤滑液,性感內衣,充氣娃娃,按摩棒,情趣精品,跳蛋,情趣網站,情趣商品,跳蛋,FleshLight,充氣娃娃,情趣內衣,情趣精品,按摩棒,威而柔,自慰套,成人玩具,Nexus,lelo,聰明球,後庭,後庭g點,g點,美國fleshlight,STU訓練大師,Fleshgirls,Toys Heart,Tenga,日本 Vibratex,日本Toys Heart ,日本Tenga,美國aneros,rudeboy,英國rudeboy,英國Rocksoff,德國Fun Factory,Fun Factory,英國甜筒造型按摩座,甜筒造型按摩座,英國Rock Chic ,瑞典 Lelo ,英國Emotional Bliss,英國 E.B,荷蘭 Natural Contours,荷蘭 N C,美國 OhMiBod,美國 OMB,Naughti Nano ,音樂按摩棒,ipod按摩棒,美國 The Screaming O,美國TSO,美國TOPCO,美國Doc Johnson,美國CA Exotic,美國CEN,美國Nasstoy,美國Tonguejoy,英國Je Joue,美國Pipe Dream,美國California Exotic,美國NassToys,美國Vibropod,美國Penthouse,仿真按摩棒,矽膠按摩棒,猛男倒模,真人倒模,仿真倒模,PJUR,Zestra,適趣液,穿戴套具,日本NPG,雙頭龍,FANCARNAL,日本NIPPORI,日本GEL,日本Aqua Style,美國WET,費洛蒙,費洛蒙香水,仿真名器,av女優,打炮,做愛,性愛,口交,吹喇叭,肛交,魔女訓練大師,無線跳蛋,有線跳蛋,震動棒,震動保險套,震動套,TOY-情趣用品,情趣用品網,情趣購物網,成人用品網,情趣用品討論,成人購物網,鎖精套,鎖精環,持久環,持久套,拉珠,逼真按摩棒,名器,超名器,逼真老二,電動自慰,自慰,打手槍,仿真女郎,SM道具,SM,性感內褲,仿真按摩棒,pornograph,hunter系列,h動畫,成人動畫,成人卡通,情色動畫,情色卡通,色情動畫,色情卡通,無修正,禁斷,人妻,極悪調教,姦淫,近親相姦,顏射,盜攝,偷拍,本土自拍,素人自拍,公園露出,街道露出,野外露出,誘姦,迷姦,輪姦,凌辱,痴漢,痴女,素人娘,中出,巨乳,調教,潮吹,av,a片,成人影片,成人影音,線上影片,成人光碟,成人無碼,成人dvd,情色影音,情色影片,情色dvd,情色光碟,航空版,薄碼,色情dvd,色情影音,色情光碟,線上A片,免費A片,A片下載,成人電影,色情電影,TOKYO HOT,SKY ANGEL,一本道,SOD,S1,ALICE JAPAN,皇冠系列,老虎系列,東京熱,亞熱,武士系列,新潮館,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,整型,水噹噹,貸款,貸款,信用貸款,宜蘭民宿,花蓮民宿,未婚聯誼,網路購物,珠海,下川島,常平,珠海,澳門機票,香港機票,婚友,婚友社,未婚聯誼,交友,婚友,婚友社,單身聯誼,未婚聯誼,未婚聯誼,婚友社,婚友,婚友社,單身聯誼,婚友,未婚聯誼,婚友社,未婚聯誼,單身聯誼,單身聯誼,婚友,單身聯誼,未婚聯誼,婚友,交友,交友,婚友社,婚友社,婚友社,大陸新娘,大陸新娘,大陸新娘,越南新娘,越南新娘,外籍新娘,外籍新娘,台中坐月子中心,搬家公司,搬家,搬家,搬家公司,線上客服,網頁設計,線上客服,網頁設計,網頁設計,土地貸款,免費資源,電腦教學,wordpress,人工植牙,關鍵字,關鍵字,seo,seo,網路排名,自然排序,網路排名軟體,

平平 said...

^^ nice blog!! ^@^

徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 感情挽回, 婚姻挽回, 挽回婚姻, 挽回感情, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信, 捉姦, 徵信公司, 通姦, 通姦罪, 抓姦, 抓猴, 捉猴, 捉姦, 監聽, 調查跟蹤, 反跟蹤, 外遇問題, 徵信, 捉姦, 女人徵信, 女子徵信, 外遇問題, 女子徵信, 徵信社, 外遇, 徵信公司, 徵信網, 外遇蒐證, 抓姦, 抓猴, 捉猴, 調查跟蹤, 反跟蹤, 感情挽回, 挽回感情, 婚姻挽回, 挽回婚姻, 外遇沖開, 抓姦, 女子徵信, 外遇蒐證, 外遇, 通姦, 通姦罪, 贍養費, 徵信, 徵信社, 抓姦, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信公司, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信公司, 徵信社, 徵信公司, 女人徵信, 外遇

徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信網, 外遇, 徵信, 徵信社, 抓姦, 徵信, 女人徵信, 徵信社, 女人徵信社, 外遇, 抓姦, 徵信公司, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 女人徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 女子徵信社, 女子徵信社, 女子徵信社, 女子徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,

徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 外遇, 抓姦, 離婚, 外遇,離婚,

徵信, 外遇, 離婚, 徵信社, 徵信, 外遇, 抓姦, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 外遇, 徵信社, 徵信, 外遇, 抓姦, 徵信社, 征信, 征信, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 征信, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信, 外遇, 抓姦, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,

平平 said...

^^ very nice

徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,

徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,

酒店上班請找艾葳 said...

艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 酒店上班小姐,八大行業,酒店兼職,傳播妹,或者想要打工兼差打工,兼差,八大行業,酒店兼職,想去酒店上班, 日式酒店,便服店,制服酒店,ktv酒店,禮服店,整天穿得水水漂漂的,還是想去制服店日領上班小姐,水水們如果想要擁有打工工作、晚上兼差工作兼差打工假日兼職兼職工作酒店兼差兼差打工兼差日領工作晚上兼差工作酒店工作酒店上班酒店打工兼職兼差兼差工作酒店上班等,想了解酒店相關工作特種行業內容,想兼職工作日領假日兼職兼差打工、或晚班兼職想擁有鋼琴酒吧又有保障的工作嗎???又可以現領請找專業又有保障的艾葳酒店經紀公司!

艾葳酒店經紀是合法的公司工作環境高雅時尚,無業績壓力,無脫秀無喝酒壓力,高層次會員制客源,工作輕鬆,可日領現領
一般的酒店經紀只會在水水們第一次上班和領薪水時出現而已,對水水們的上班安全一點保障都沒有!艾葳酒店經紀公司的水水們上班時全程媽咪作陪,不需擔心!只提供最優質的酒店上班,酒店上班,酒店打工環境、上班條件給水水們。心動嗎!? 趕快來填寫你的酒店上班履歷表

水水們妳有缺現領、想要兼職、有缺錢的煩腦嗎?想到日本留學缺錢嗎?妳是傳播妹??想要擁有高時薪又輕鬆的賺錢,酒店和,假日打工,假日兼職賺錢的機會嗎??想實現夢想卻又缺錢沒錢嗎!??
艾葳酒店台北酒店經紀招兵買馬!!徵專業的酒店打工,想要去酒店的水水,想要短期日領,酒店日領,禮服酒店,制服店,酒店經紀,ktv酒店,便服店,酒店工作,禮服店,酒店小姐,酒店經紀人,
等相關服務 幫您快速的實現您的夢想~!!

freefun0616 said...

酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店經紀,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店工作,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,

,