Since her name was announced as John McCain's running mate, Sarah Palin has generated more US-based internet search traffic than Britney Spears, Paris Hilton, Michael Phelps and Barack Obama combined:
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9.03.2008
Guess Who's a Celebrity Now?
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Peggy Noonan says (when she's off-mike honest instead of on-mike lying Republican scumball) "It's over."
http://dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/3/161747/5288/853/584941
But... but... celebrity is a good thing when you're a wholesome, Christian girl like our little Sarah. Why, we told you America would fall in love with her. This just proves it!
Yes, but that's because the McCain campaign are desperately trying to find out what shit is going to hit the fan tomorrow.
I smell a rat with the Peggy Noonan/Mike Murphy off-mic truth-serum discussion.
Peggy Noonan is as Republican as you can get (Reagan speechwriter) - I can't see her not towing the GOP line and they know they are always on mic. Could be a planted conversation to start the ball rolling in motion for Palin's departure from the ticket.
All depends on how well received Mrs. Palin is tonight -- and not by the GOP faithful -- how well she plays with Reagan Democrats and Independents.
Are the CNN/Time polls going in tomorrow?
Its ok to be a celebrity if your a Republican. Didnt you see McCain on the Tonight Show the other day?
I smell a rat with the Peggy Noonan/Mike Murphy off-mic truth-serum discussion...they know they are always on mic.
I smell a dimwit who thinks that Republicans are wizards. People who should know better, like Jesse Jackson and Peggy Noonan, are human and sometimes slip up.
Palin is gonna hit the speech out of the park tonight. If she can't hit a home run in a right wing crowd, with 5 days to prepare then it makes me wonder how she became mayor in Alaska.
The media fawning will be redickulous this evening making up for the "Poor" treatment the last few days.
McCain's imdb listing is just a tad longer than Barack Obama's.
Is Mike Murphy currently the campaign chair?
I know he was in 2000.
And here's what I found:
http://sites.google.com/site/letterfromwasilla/
New polls show Obama up 12 in Minnesota and 15 in Iowa, but only up 2 in Ohio. This leads me to believe McCain will likely hold onto Ohio in a close election. I think Palin might cater to enough Demographics in Ohio, Virginia, and maybe even Colorado to hold onto those states. But... New Mexico, Nevada, Iowa and all of the Kerry states = Obama victory. I think he has those states wrapped up with that pick. I think it's over, unless something crazy happens. Nevada's makeup doesn't have a lot of folks that Palin caters to. Pennsylvania is too blue right now to flip. Romney was the only one who could flip Michigan. New Hampshire doesn't have enough of the Demographic to flip, polling there suggests it's not that close. I think this thing is over as long as there isn't a titanic shift.
After McCain's Tonight Show appearance and Palin being googled so much, I think it's time for Obama to put out a Celebrity advertisement against the McCain-Palin ticket.
I know it's your site, Nate, but posts like this devalue the otherwise crisp, penetrating analysis that makes this fivethirtyeight so unique.
Me thinks that old fisting bottom Rove really screwed this one up. bwahhahah
He even has Ol'Reagan undie sniffa Peggy Noonan cursing.....
LMAO
This has been such fun watching the unraveling of Rove and her overated hacks
Jirque: Numbers are numbers. You don't like the numbers, that's your personal problem.
Matthew Murphy no longer works for McBush he is an analyst
And only half of those searches were from the McCain vetting team!
If she can't hit a home run in a right wing crowd, with 5 days to prepare then it makes me wonder how she became mayor in Alaska.
Um, it's a town of less thn 9000 -- all their kids play little league together. Oh, unless you're asking how she became the "mayor" of Alaska. Well, she became governor by default because everyone wanted to get rid of Murkowski.
As for the idiotic notion that the Noonan/Murphy conversation was a "plant" -- they wouldn't have talked about McCain betraying his brand by being "cynical". And there's nothing more moronic than this notion that they're thinking of pulling Palin (even if Rachel Maddow, who should know better, talked about it) -- they only get one convention to introduce the VP, and it would just reinforce what tremendously bad judgment McCain has. He's going to get clobbered with Palin, but he would get clobbered far worse if he pulls her -- just consider Thomas Eagleton.
slothdog:
Its ok to be a celebrity if your a Republican. Didnt you see McCain on the Tonight Show the other day?
For, what, the 13th time, I think?
Jirque said...
I know it's your site, Nate, but posts like this devalue the otherwise crisp, penetrating analysis that makes this fivethirtyeight so unique.
You'll notice that when a thread gets much over 200 posts, Nate will often start another thread. That's because it's difficult for people to read the threads when they go over 200 posts.
So just think of this as an open thread.
Admittedly, unlike the previous thread, this one was opened with a little more than 100 posts in the last thread. But then, Nate and Sean will be taking off for the Convention shortly, so you'll have to excuse them for making this thread a little early.
As for the conversation being a plant...it reminds me of this article:
http://www.theonion.com/content/news/karl_rove_accused_of_throwing
And only half of those searches were from the McCain vetting team!
LOL
VC:
The votes in Florida are where the people are.
http://www.stateofflorida.com/Portal/DesktopDefault.aspx?tabid=95#counties
There are more people in the Tampa Bay area than in the entire state west of Tallahassee. It would be different if electoral votes were awarded proportionally, but both parties are against that.
Please, Please, we need a Florida poll.
There could be one hell of a bounce there. It may even have flipped to safe Obama.
Off topic - though this hardly counts as a topic! - does anyone see any of those McCain ads here any longer?
McCain has moved into public financing and his ad spending advantage is now gone.
Unfortunately, this drives down Nate's income... We should all contribute something to replace this lost revenue!
Once again, big deal!?!? So Noonan and Murphy said it was over. I guess that means half of McCains supporters will change their mind and now stay home because two people said it was over. You have got to be kidding me. Once Palin gives her speech tonight this "it's over" stuff wont be talked about. The media will love her speech because they've been setting her up so it's impossible for her to fail. Honestly I usually agree with 80% of the comments on this site in regards to political matters but if anybody thinks that it's "over" because two republican strategists said so I have some land to sell you.
I hope rational minded people locate this fairly balanced view of one of her neighbors in Wasilla,
http://sites.google.com/site/letterfromwasilla/
Even if he wanted to McCain doesn't have the power to dump Palin.
You have no idea how much excitment she has generated among Christian Conservatives, and especially among the delegates at the convention, and how much power she now has.
If McCain tried to dump her before she was nominated. I believe the delegates would revolt and nominate her anyway.
If he tried to do it after she was the offcial VP. I believe she would flat out refuse to resign, and McCain would not have the authority to drop her.
If he tryed to drop her after he was elected. The Democrats would get to select his VP so there is no chance of that happening either.
Nobody has the power to drop Palin except for Palin herself, and she;s not going to do that.
All this nonsense about how McCain is going to drop Palin is foolishness because simply put McCain doesn't have the power to drop her.
At first guess, that's when a whole lot low-moderate information voters went and Googled to find out who the heck this woman was.
Considering all the stuff that is coming out, the McCain camp should thank their lucky stars that people googled earlier rather than later, and that it was a spike rather than a steadily increasing profile.
Speaking of celebrities... remember in the spring (it only seems like years ago) when Britney Spears' teenage sister announced she was pregnant and the "family values" folks were having a cow all over the media about how shocking and awful it was, what a terrible example to our youth, her TV show must be dropped immediately lest other kids start thinking teenage pregnancy is acceptale, etc?
Well, tonight the VP candidate's preganat teenage daughter and boyfriend will be showcased at the convention.
I swear, even a hardened political observer like me is getting whiplash from the hypocrisy.
Obama up by 15% in Iowa - that's a pretty big bounce.
Honestly, Topshelf, your comment is moronic. No one said it's over just because Peggy Noonan says so - it's just an ilustration of the tremendous gap between what these people claim and what they actually believe. And if Peggy Noonan and Mike Murphy can see it clear as day, lots of other people can too, and that's what the polls are showing.
"Romney was the only one who could flip Michigan."
For McCain, virtually his entire election is based on the state of Michigan. It is very unlikely that he will win without flipping that state because he will then have to be perfect in defending all the states that Bush narrowly won in 2004 that significantly trended blue in 2006 (Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, etc). Just by even getting up in the polls in Michigan, he would give his campaign a legitimate shot in the arm by displaying some proof that he has the capability to take a Kerry state instead of just defending shaky turf. He should have selected Romney and sent him to Michigan with serious economic prescriptions, not now but a month ago. Instead he selected a lightweight glamour pick who plays best in Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, and the solid south because of the abortion issue, not with independent voters. Basically he chose to gamble upon exactly replicating the 04 Bush map.
"And if Peggy Noonan and Mike Murphy can see it clear as day, lots of other people can too, and that's what the polls are showing."
You give way too much credit to the average American voter. The polls are showing a bounce for Obama as of now. Give it a week-two weeks from now and see where this race is. Polling now is pointless, hence why many agencies have quit doing state polling during conventions.
She's already collared with "buffoon", which is too bad. As much as I hate her politics, I prefer her to a Stevens, Young or either Murkowski any day. She looks to be fried by the ineptitude of Krusty and the fringe right.
The first thought that came to my head reading this article: I wonder if there are more searches for "sarah palin nude" or "barack obama nude"
Guess that shows where my mind is ...
If McCain tried to dump her before she was nominated. I believe the delegates would revolt and nominate her anyway.
Regardless, he would lose the votes of all those evangelicals excited by the pick.
All this nonsense about how McCain is going to drop Palin is foolishness
There are lots of silly people who have trouble grasping reality, and they aren't all Republicans.
It's getting downright surreal now. With all the negative headlines of the last few days, and her unfavorables rising, despite people knowing bugger-all about her, the MSM are treating Palin like she's royalty, or something. The pundits are acting like she's this mysterious figure with huge secret to tell. Just bizarre.
I mean what are people expecting from her? She'll give some standard convention speech with some personal stories thrown in and some red meat for the conservative nutbase.
All I know is...I'm not watching.
I think you folks are right, Obama is probably more likely to flip Florida than Ohio or Virginia at this point. I'd still bet he flips Nevada, New Mexico, and Iowa and holds onto all Kerry states, won't need Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, or Florida.
You give way too much credit to the average American voter.
I give credit to facts; you give way too much credit to your own thought processes.
Give it a week-two weeks from now and see where this race is.
Give it a week-two weeks to open your yap. Things can of course change, but it takes a dishonest fool to try to win an argument by dismissing the current evidence in favor of some imagined future.
Good thing a kind soul who knew intimate details of her life went to her wikipedia page and spruced it up RIGHT before she was announced as VP nominee. Otherwise, think of the mess she'd be in.
I think the main point of the Noonan/Murphy open mike incident is that it's a reminder that we should assume that any Republican pundit who talks about Palin as an asset to the ticket is probably lying through his/her teeth.
Several journalists have already been saying that, while Republican operatives are publicly optimistic about Palin as an asset, in private they say they're shocked and disappointed by the pick. This just adds meat to that story.
Tonight's speech is obviously important, but unless she achieves a miracle in her speech, Palin seems likely to be a hit with evangelicals -- and a bomb with most other voters, especially women and Hillary Clinton supporters.
And that's a problem for McCain. Yeah, he needed to help shore up his base, but given the partisan split these days he needs to do much better with independents and Democrats if he wants to win in November. And I just don't see Palin helping him get there.
The fact that so many people have Googled means they have lost control of the message and narrative. We have no way of predicting what people will think of her for a few weeks.
My sister, a low information, upper middle class, said there was no way she could vote for McCain because of Palin. "She is not ready to be president, and he's old" she shared with me, then to say "Had he picked Romnet I would have voted for immediately - my son convinced me."
Does anyone here play craps and poker? Obama loves poker, McCain loves craps. I think it says a lot about the two men. I like both, but I'd definitely prefer a great poker player to make decisions on my behalf than someone who loves craps. To some that will sound silly, but if you know the games and you've watched these two in action, you probably get my point.
The fact that so many people have Googled means they have lost control of the message and narrative.
Quite. That "Was she vetted?" is all over the media and throughout the populace shows that this was a Hail Mary, not some brilliantly planned wizardly strategy.
I think the main point of the Noonan/Murphy open mike incident is that it's a reminder that we should assume that any Republican pundit who talks about Palin as an asset to the ticket is probably lying through his/her teeth.
Several journalists have already been saying that, while Republican operatives are publicly optimistic about Palin as an asset, in private they say they're shocked and disappointed by the pick. This just adds meat to that story.
Exactly.
Tonight's speech is obviously important, but unless she achieves a miracle in her speech, Palin seems likely to be a hit with evangelicals -- and a bomb with most other voters, especially women and Hillary Clinton supporters.
We'll know soon enough. It will be very difficult to appeal to both evangelicals and pro-choice women and independents at the same time. She can try to stick to "character" but the facts are against her and all that googling means people are finding out.
MATT J. H. said...
The media fawning will be redickulous this evening making up for the "Poor" treatment the last few days.
That's what I'm hearing right now. Even a guy as grounded as Jack Cafferty just said that no matter if McCain loses, Palin will be a huge star in the Republican Party for the next 20 years. Uhh, Hello! She'll be on a losing ticket in quite possibly a landslide election. Palin will be tarred and feathered as a loser.
Also, do these pundits have any idea how outside the mainstream Palin is? She wanted to ban books for crissakes. And besides, America in the next 20 years will be moving more and more away from christianity and religion.
Porridgegun-
And the GOP will have to separate itself somehow from the stranglehold of the evangelicals. The sooner it does, the sooner it can return to its sensible roots of tax-cutting and small-government. Until it does so, we Democrats will assume the majority more often than not.
http://img354.imageshack.us/img354/2651/celebritywd8.jpg
Picture of the entire search shows Obama is still a celebrity by subregions and cities.
This could turn Florida quite blue from politico.com:
"An illustration of that gap came just two weeks ago, when Palin’s church, the Wasilla Bible Church, gave its pulpit over to a figure viewed with deep hostility by many Jewish organizations: David Brickner, the executive director of Jews for Jesus."
Read the whole story at:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/13098.html
"Give it a week-two weeks to open your yap. Things can of course change, but it takes a dishonest fool to try to win an argument by dismissing the current evidence in favor of some imagined future."
"evidence" that Obama is ahead? Like polls taken the week after his convention? OMG he's ahead in those! He must be on his way to a landslide victory. Listen up, I've worked on and ran campaigns and the fact that Obama is up 8/9 or ahead slightly in swing states the week after his convention doesn't mean shit. Come talk to me in 2 weeks. If it's still the case then it's over but it wont be. Believe it or not there are people out there who know more about elections and running them then you do kid.
To be perfectly honest, few of those really compare to sex. Check out this posting I made about this on Kos:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/2/5438/43441/725/583035
The really funny part is the bump up in interest in sex on the weekends. Anyway, Palin still blows away sex.
i said on another thread on another blog that if obama had any snarky guts at all, he's run mcmuffin's "celebrity" ad as well as the "hillary" ad, only insert maggie o'connell, i mean, sarah palin's name for his own in the "celeb" ad, and mitt romney's name for hillary's in the other, and switch gender-specific pronouns.
then pay me money for thinking it up.
Of course there's a spike in net traffic- people are trying to find out who she actually IS.
"evidence" that Obama is ahead?
Evidence that "lots of other people can [see it] too". If you weren't fucking intellectually dishonest, you would have one back and established the context yourself, asshole.
He must be on his way to a landslide victory. Listen up, I've worked on and ran campaigns
Listen up, you fucking strawman-wielding asshole, I couldn't care less what you've done, except that it has apparently given you experience in being intellectually dishonest.
forget the Noonan/Murphy mic incident.
the real truth was Scarborough/Buchanan the day she was rumored to be the running mate.
of course, they're going to tell you that they were lying, but look it up on Youtube.
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