Beach season is over, the kids are back in school, and the two-month sprint to the finish has begun. A Pew survey released today shows that while the campaign accounted for 27% of the overall newshole during the summer low-attention season, it accounted for 69% of the newshole coverage spanning Denver’s Democratic National Convention through John McCain’s vice-presidential selection of Sarah Palin, crushing the previous high of 55% set during the week of Super Tuesday.
If nothing else, McCain’s willingness to roll the dice with Palin immediately changed the media focus in a way that would almost certainly not have been as intense had he picked someone expected like Tim Pawlenty, as most coverage centered on the risks and potential rewards of the pick. Pew’s study did not include the news of Palin’s daughter’s pregnancy, which broke the day after the survey period ended.
Campaign coverage accounted for 79% of network news airtime and 94% of cable coverage. Additionally, Pew finds that public opinion of both candidates has improved. Most significantly for Obama is the finding that he has impressed the Democratic base. The smooth Denver convention capped with a flawlessly executed final night led Democrats to report a greater satisfaction with Obama as the nominee, up from 39% to 54% reporting a "more favorable opinion" in the span of one week. Solidifying his more numerous base is really the ballgame for Obama.
By the same token, Republican views of John McCain became more favorable in that stretch by an even wider margin, improving 21 points to 53% "more favorable opinion," up from 32%. This is undoubtedly good news for McCain, and shows that the pick of Palin was well received among Republicans (those Republicans who had heard "a lot" about the Palin pick split 36-24 more/less favorable toward McCain).
The problem McCain faces is that if Obama's base solidifies, the numeric partisan ID advantage Democrats enjoy threatens to swamp his campaign. A tie in base favorability goes to Obama. That has always been Obama's game. Solidify and turn out the base, keep his constant edge among independents, and McCain is essentially powerless to change the outcome.
As we go forward in the campaign, look for McCain's camp to constantly push toward the middle. Attention is up, Obama's base is solidifying, so trying to stop Obama from carrying independents is now McCain's last, best hope. A National Journal survey of Republican convention insiders confirms an awareness that the swing voters are a much more important group for McCain to win. By a 55%-33% margin, GOP insiders urge McCain to go for the middle. Tomorrow night's speech will tell us whether McCain understands this need.
9.03.2008
The Fall Campaign – Oh, It’s On
@ 6:40 PM
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I'm really curious what people here think about this open letter from one of Palin's neighbors. Do you think the average voter would take the time to read balanced views like this. What are your opinions here on 538. I thought this was fascinating.
http://sites.google.com/site/letterfromwasilla/
GOP insiders urge him to go for the middle. Are these the same GOP insiders who supposedly nixed Lieberman for VP? As a Democrat, that was the line that worried me the most, because it just might have worked.
Its a two-fold strategy. Go Right with the VP choice. Check. Go Center for the last 60 days. McCain will do this with his "maverick" sprache.
Its a good strategy.
Unfortunately it probably won't matter. Best case scenario, they still have a chance on the evening of Nov. 3rd.
Worst case scenario, Palin's background unravels the wheels right of this elephant cart and they wind up in a ditch about 18 points behind in the race.
It'll be hard to go for the middle after the Palin pick. I was leaning strongly to Obama up to then, but have since donated the largest sum I've ever given to a candidate (still pretty paltry) to him and I'm seriously considering volunteering some time between now and November. Given the small, but plausible possibility of a confrontation with a still very nuclear power like Russia over the Balkans, I really don't want someone a 72-year old heartbeat from the button who thinks the "end times" is a favorable outcome.
The fat 'n colorful lady HAS SUNG!
ST. PAUL -- John McCain's top strategist today denounced a report in the National Enquirer, hours after it was published, as "disgraceful."
"The smearing of the Palin family must end," spokesman Steve Schmidt said in an e-mail distributed to journalists.
The Enquirer, which exposed John Edwards's extramarital affair, cited unnamed sources in alleging that the Alaska governor had an affair with a business associate of her "fisherman husband," Todd Palin -- the story doesn't say when -- and that he found out and severed relations with the man.
"The allegations contained on the cover of the National Enquirer insinuating that Governor Palin had an extramarital affair are categorically false," Schmidt said. "It is a vicious lie. Governor Palin is the most popular governor in the country. She is a proven leader, an accomplished executive, a champion for ethics reform, and a fighter against corruption. The efforts of the media and tabloids to destroy this fine and accomplished public servant are a disgrace. The American people will reject it."
The mainstream media might well have ignored the unsubstantiated allegation, as they did for eight months in the Edwards saga. But the McCain's team quick response in defending the Arizona senator's running mate had the effect, intentionally or otherwise, of giving the story more prominence.
Schmidt, who told The Washington Post Tuesday that the news media are "on a mission to destroy" Palin, lumped the media and tabloids together in his blast against the Enquirer.
The supermarket tabloid also deals with the pregnancy of Palin's 17-year-old daughter, Bristol, which the governor acknowledged Monday. The tabloid quotes an insider as saying that the governor wanted to announce that Bristol was expecting and had set a wedding date before McCain went public with his vice-presidential choice. But, the story says, the baby's father, high school student Levi Johnston, balked at the plan.
God almighty, I do believe the Enquirer has just set a new world record!
Selecting Palin is hardly "go[ing] for the middle". Unless we are talking about another Republican attempt to move the middle close to themselves.
Well the move to the middle is obvious, how Palin being a fringe reactionary separatist helps is not.
To even have a chance of her just being a WASH for the ticket, she will have to give the speech of her life (or be perceived to do so).
I'm hearing what Mike Murphy is saying on MSNBC now, and I don't believe a damn word of it anymore.
she really is the gift that just keeps on giving, isn't she....
Is anybody else going to watch Obama on O'Reilly?
and the thing is - normally the reaction would be "where's the evidence".
right now? After the week she's just had? I suspect the default reaction will be "she did it".
I hope they keep her, I really do...best case scenario for McCain right now is she withdfraws and he picks someone else. He's toast with Palin.
Palin is supposed to have a lot of charisma when properly prepared. I think she'll do well tonight. But the Republicans have a Herculean task ahead of them tonight.
Yeah, I'll be watching Obama on O'Reilly. O'Reilly's weak. No threat to create a gaffe to Obama. Glenn Beck would be the dangerous Conservative talking head. I think he might be able to do it, but not O'Reilly.
I honestly think Kerry never going on O'Reilly was one of his big mistakes.
About the Open Letter from Wasilla, the part that got to me most was:
"•has a developed philosophy of public policy: no"
Even aside from politics, there is an administrative aspect of public policy, and I don't know if she has that part down.
Like, for example, the Federal Reserve, If we asked Sarah Palin whether she think that the Federal Reserve's main job is to fight inflation, or to maintain unemployment, would she be able to explain what she thinks, consistently, on a philosophical and pragmatic basis?
I'll be tuning in, VAcon. I like seeing politicians under pressure. I envy the brits their news organizations because their interviewers will challenge and contradict candidates, our at best will simply try to smear them, at worst will fawn on them.
Baz744 said...
Palin is supposed to have a lot of charisma when properly prepared. I think she'll do well tonight. But the Republicans have a Herculean task ahead of them tonight.
I generally disagree. Palin was a broadcaster and pageant queen and is scripted tonight and well prepared. She's not getting asked questions. The Herculean task would be to give Tim Russert an hour of her time. Too bad that can't happen.
Ok, I'm on this site at work. A slightly senile lady just pointed at the TV on the GOP convention and asked whose funeral it was. That's a bad sign for them, right?
Folks, the National Enquirer has the mother of all legal departments. That story is true.
Palin affair story: a Republican plant to build up the "poor persecuted Palin family" image?
Oh good Lord we're fucked.
Ah, I bet my concerns that Sarah Palin does not totally understand the ins-and-outs of monetary policy is probably not going to be the big story in the Enquirer, is it?
Again, I really wish people would leave Gov. Palin's family alone.
The National Enquirer pushes back and smacksdown the Rove boys
======================
ENQUIRER RESPONDS TO MCCAIN/PALIN
Wed Sep 03 2008 18:19:21 ET
"The National Enquirer's coverage of a vicious war within Sarah Palin's extended family includes several newsworthy revelations, including the resulting incredible charge of an affair plus details of family strife when the Governor's daughter revealed her pregnancy. Following our John Edwards' exclusives, our political reporting has obviously proven to be more detail-oriented than the McCain campaign's vetting process. Despite the McCain camp's attempts to control press coverage they find unfavorable, The Enquirer will continue to pursue news on both sides of the political spectrum."
Well, a month ago Palin had no clue what the VP does. It seems her new duties consist of taking a mud pie in the face on the evening news each and every day. Not so much Swift Boating, as Swift Vetting. Way to go, Johnny Mac!
This is the world's first documented case of autoswiftboating.
If that National Enquirer story is too (I pray to God it isn't, and there is a chance it isn't) but IF IT IS the Republican Party is FUBAR.
VC,
Autoswiftboating -- that was one funny line -- I give you props!!
I'll make a bet. The news stations will generally pretend like she gave a great speech tonight in an attempt to get some of the first interviews of her whether the speech is good or not.
Folks, I know we're giving the Enquirer a lot of credibility because they broke the Edwards story, but this is still the same magazine that recently alleged that W. would soon be leaving Laura to go run off with Condi.
They have lawyers, yes, but there also far fewer details in this story than the Edwards story. There is also much less confident/more hedging language "Some allege..." with no other statements that could be proven to be untrue in court.
Virginia conservative:
Truth here matters so much less than evidence.
A love letter? A recorded phone call? An email? Photographs?
What else do lovers exchange?
Any items like these doom the McCain campaign.
Mike Murphy speaks his mind when he thinks no one is listening:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CrG8w4bb3kg
I think this election isn't going to be as close as most people think.
Interesting comment from another blog:
David Brooks was on NPR today and said that the McCain people saw some internal polling last week that was SO BAD that they decided that they had to do something to really "shake up" the campaign, and Voila! - Palin!
Those must have been some REALLY BAD numbers that they saw to jump the shark like that, and to have Brooks basically throw them under the bus today for the Palin choice.
What I would give to see those internal polling numbers... and to find out why the Zogby's, USA's etc numbers don't seem to be showing the same results - YET!
Yeah, they need proof or an admission. Until then it doesn't fly in the MSM, and stays on the same level as "Obama is a secret Muslim".
Mark-
For the average Joe the language that protects them legally does not mean crap to the reader, IMO. An average low info National Enquirer reader will eat up the headline, no matter the story content.
"They have lawyers, yes, but there also far fewer details in this story than the Edwards story."
Which suggests one of a few possibilities:
1) The Enquirer has the evidence, and was waiting for a clear denial from the campaign to present it.
2) It's a Republican plant to build up the "poor persecuted Palin family" image.
3) It's true, but there's no evidence.
4) It's false.
We'll know more in the next day or two, I suppose.
Waitaminute, having an affair screws over Palin, but letting her daughter screw while sick at home with mono, that's OK?
Eh, I suppose when you get hit by both barrels of buckshot, it doesn't matter which steel ball did you in.
So then Va Con, here's the next question: if Obama wins, do you...
A) Pray for the economy to do great so that our country does well, or
B) Pray for the economy to do terrible so that the Republicans win in 2012 (and probably take the Senate too)?
I'll take door #3.
The liberal bent of these comments is astounding. I don't see Palin is a big liability at all. She humanises McCain considerably, and her strong social conservatism keeps the right-wing end of the GOP from staying home (as they might have given just McCain to support).
Plus, I've maintained for the last year or so that to win this election the Democrats needed to select a more mainstream candidate, and they didn't do that.
Palin affair story: a Republican plant to build up the "poor persecuted Palin family" image?
No way. I know someone who went through extensive interviews at the Enquirer. He almost took the job and then decided at the last minute that he didn't want to go over to the dark side.
He told me that they are a very hard-driving and very exacting organization that runs everything past a squadron of lawyers. Apparently, the Carol Burnett story, where she won a verdict against the Enquirer for falsely reporting that she was drunk in a restaurant, put the fear of God into them.
I'm telling you, the story is true. The Enquirer isn't wrong about political sex scandals. Long before John Edwards, they were the ones who nailed William Kennedy Smith. Hate 'em all you want, but the Enquirer always gets their man. Or woman, as the case may be.
The public knows it, too. So, yes, VA Conservative, you're fucked.
Oh Franco-
The National Enquirer comback is priceless and I PROMISE the McCan't campaign did not expect it. Doesn't it suck for the Rovians to F'iNALLY have to deal with someone better at lowballing than them!!! I might just buy an Enquirer after this!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!111
VC,
I'll take a deep breath and watch Obama on The Factor. I've never watched it before or anything on Fox News, so I could be an interesting experience.
I've seen Mr. O'Reilly on The Daily Show and the Colbert Report and both times he didn't seem... particularly gracious. But I'll hope for better things when he's dealing with Obama (at least to his face).
I'm sure he'll have lots to say in the coming months regarding Obama/Biden but at least for the face to face interview I'm hoping he'll at least have a semblance of respect.
Natl. Inq. story might indeed be nothing but their response to the Mc Cain campaign certainly was nice.....
I called it a couple of days ago (although I don't think I said it on this site). Sarah Palin is not a pander to women - she's a pander to the Christian right. She exists to shore up the base and give McCain room to lean toward the middle.
Whereas Obama needs to solidify his base and work on the ground game - he still needs to fight for the independent vote - he needs to pull a sizeable portion, imho.
"As we go forward in the campaign, look for McCain's camp to constantly push toward the middle."
Um. Sean.
That ship has sailed: the U.S.S. Palin.
Family's off limits, I know, but I've got a question.
Why does her Mother-in-Law hate her? I know in-laws don't always jive with each other, but for her to come out and say basically she's completely unqualified; to me that says something. I'd guess she's got good reason, though I wouldn't assume the Enquirer has it right.
Toni-
Bill O isn't as hard right or as bad a guy as you think he is. Hes a blowhard, sure, but hes entertaining.
Hmmm. Not sure I'm buying it Pluckon.
Doesn't defamation law grant broad immunity when writing about public officials? Can't you pretty much accuse them of eating babies and be immune from liability? Anyone with knowledge of defamation law: would appreciate your input.
Eric-
Perfect. I thought it was the kid not getting an abortion and ruining her life, but it turns out to be screwing around on their son. PRICELESS!
The Enquirer doesn't mess up too much since the Carol Burnett lawsuit. And they just ended the career of John Edwards, so it's not going to be easy to claim they have a politically-minded vendetta against Palin.
Nice vetting job by McCain. The Enquirer is now up there in Alaska, and is willing to throw money around (unlike the MSM) to get people to talk about Palin's affair. And I suspect there's more to come.
I'm a Democrat, but have occasionally voted for Republicans, and always did respect McCain. That respect is in worse than rickety shape right now.
What the *HELL* are the McCain people going to do? It's going to be next to impossible to remove her from the ballot. Are they really going to blame media persecution for the next two months?
baz744-
The standard is very very high for public figures, you bascially have to publish it KNOWING it was untrue. A damn near impossible standard.
After Hillary v. Obama was winding down, things were looking to get a little dull.
Governor Mooseburger certainly changed all of that.
I'm not sure the McCain campaign can define the National Enquirer as beltway insiders.
There just in it for the money and the glory.
I have no doubt the Palin family has their skeletons and if there was significant strife regarding Bristol's pregnancy, upcoming marriage and/or parenting then I believe this is fair game to discuss. This is because they are trotting this what to me is a family crisis as no big deal. Everyone is happy and in love, Kumbaya etc.
If she had an affair... well...
speechless.
"Are they really going to blame media persecution for the next two months?"
Nixon managed to do it for his entire career and damn near pulled it off successfully. But Sarah Palin is no Dick Nixon.
Graham-
Noone will take the VP slot even if he dumps her. If this gets to the MSM, BO wins 340 EVs.
YEAH BABY!!! Pass the beer!
Virginia Conservative said...
Is anybody else going to watch Obama on O'Reilly?
I'll bet liberals, conservatives and independents are more interested inthe Obama interview than McCain's acceptance speech.
What are the details, exactly? Is it live, pre-recorded, for the full hour, before or during McCain's acceptance speech, what?
To be honest, Obama shouldn't be giving these propagandists the time of day. But, if it generates more interest, even among Republicans, than McCain's Big Night, then I'm all for it. Obama couldn't have picked a better time to grant an interview to that perverted right-wing lunatic.
VC,
Just wanted to say I admire how reasonable and honest you've been these past few days. If it were my guy, I'd have probably just avoided the board altogether. Good political discourse benefits everyone.
I might watch O'Reilly if it doesn't overlap the NFL opener...have to check the schedule. I honestly don't think it'll be all that hostile. Obama's team is too smart to let him do any kind of absurd editing (I imagine it's live), and Bill knows if he ever wants the huge ratings from having him back on the show he can't go over the line. It'll be interesting, for sure.
Barring any major unforeseen developments, it's over for the McCain-DRAMA ticket folks. I originally thought this election was going to be close. Now, i'll be surprised if Obama receives less than 300 EV's.
The choice of Palin will go down as the single worst VP pick in modern history.
Honestly, what were they thinking? This pick was wrong on so many levels. You don't win elections by preaching to the choir (the GOP base) anymore. It's all about the MODERATES (which Obama understands as evidenced by his progression toward the center and the VP pick of Biden)
If you want to win the middle (and therefor the election), you DON'T pick a batshit-crazy VP who opposes abortion on every imaginable level, and is so far right that she "pitch forked" for PB. Sorry, the religious nutjobs aren't enough to deliver this election (their ground game will be overshadowed by Obama's, basically the opposite of '04)
And you always, ALWAYS thoroughly VETT your VP. Palin is already accused in being involved in nearly a dozen questionable, and possibly damning scandals less than a week after being picked!
And possibly worst of all, you took the single biggest advantage and best chance your candidate had of winning away: being perceived as the "safer" pick.
Sure VP usually doesn't change the perception much, but with someone of McCain's age and health, well, the polling regarding concerns about his age speak for themselves. Undecideds who might have broken for McCain simply because he was seen as more "reassuring" are going to have second thoughts, and might even change their vote when they see BIDEN under Obama's name (who in comparison to Palin has been around longer than Ted Kennedy)
Should have played it safe with Pawlenty or Romney even, and continued your rovian negative smear campaign. Sadly it seems those were still working.
Maybe, just maybe the GOP can take the rebuilding period as a chance to kick the religious nutjobs (like Palin) and warmongers out of their party and return to the smaller government, strong DEFENSE kind of party. Otherwise, as the older voters fade out, more intelligent and younger voters (and more culturally diverse than ever) voters start voting in larger and larger blocs, the GOP as we know it now will die.
PS: For anyone who hasn't seen it yet, spread around the video showing what the RepubliClown talking heads REALLY think of their candidates:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CrG8w4bb3kg
CNN just had the first reference to the "Open Mic" and the "Political BS" line.
To me the Palin pick shows an extreme lack of confidence by McCain. He was close to tied right. If his part woudn't let him pick his choices because they were all pro-choice, why not take a qualified boring pick and then try to fight Obama to the end. It seems awfully desperate. This thing was about tied before the Dem Convention.
I know someone who knows someone who has drinks with someone who...
Anyhow. I know someone. And they say the Natl Enq dirt on Palin's extramarital activites is coming from within the family.
Aftr today, I would say I was busy and not do the O'Reilly interview. The righties will know this is their last shot to kill BO.
Run BO!!! RUN! Go to Hawaii! Hide!!!!
VC,
I'll definately keep that in mind. I have to admit to a certain unnatural hatred for all things Fox News, (I'm kidding). But honestly I do have a bias against them which I'll do my best to shelve.
:-)
The National Enquirer thing is unreal.
How many sharks can the McCain camp jump in one day?
Never mind Intrade on Palin quitting, I repeat my prior call that it's time for McCain to go.
Pawlenty was the pick. BWWWHAHAHAHAAAAA!!!!!
Speech excerpts are out - she is playing the victim card real hard:
"I'm not a member of the permanent political establishment. And I've learned quickly, these past few days, that if you're not a member in good standing of the Washington elite, then some in the media consider a candidate unqualified for that reason alone."
She is not going to focus on foreign policy or economy.
She is going for big tear jerker moments quivering with victimhood.
"The choice of Palin will go down as the single worst VP pick in modern history."
McGovern/Eagleton says 'hi'.
Sarah Palin is not a pander to women - she's a pander to the Christian right.
Nah...he tried to have both. If he only was concerned with the right, and not women, there are any number of men he might have picked who would have been less controversial, and more vetted.
So a town with like 5-7000 people in Alaska, how many votes did she get to win her elections there? Did she beat the Democrat like 72 votes for Palin and 65 for the Dem. I live in Texas and can think of about 100 towns here, but I have to think realy hard to come up with a town that small. Shoot, the 19-yr old Mayor in Oklahoma is the mayor of a town with 40,000 people in it. More than 5 times as big as her town. She's not qualified in anyway and he had at least 10 women I can think of in the Republican party, and I'm sure there are a lot more who are definitely qualified. Talk about the Audacity of Hope!
McCain is married to her, maybe Palin will be hundredth mistress. She sure ain't gonna be VP because he sure ain't gonna be pres!!!!
Noone will take the VP slot now, Romney is already position for 2012.
This could turn Florida quite blue from politico.com:
"An illustration of that gap came just two weeks ago, when Palin’s church, the Wasilla Bible Church, gave its pulpit over to a figure viewed with deep hostility by many Jewish organizations: David Brickner, the executive director of Jews for Jesus."
Read the whole story at:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0908/13098.html
There's one thing to realize about the "Palin worst ever" stuff:
He was running behind anyway. Clearly he felt he had to try a bold play that could backfire. Remember how we all said it was a hail mary play? Most of the time, those fall incomplete, gaining no yards.
So, obviously hindsight is 20/20, but I don't blame him for trying to turn around a losing game.
I have a feeling John McCain is about to have a sudden, uh, "health problem".
i am a youngster. How was Eagleton worse than this?
"He was running behind anyway."
No, he was FUCKING TIED, had a good line of attack, and was moving up.
And what did he do? He blew it!
Rhys-
He was the only VP nominee to actually be pulled from the ticket AFTER being nominated.
"i am a youngster. How was Eagleton worse than this?"
Undisclosed mental health issues.
Here comes the victim card:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qLHsfbgZzW0
Olbermann reads excerpt from Palin's speech.
Adam-
This was the worst hail mary ever, he handed it off in the backfield because he did not know what he was buying. But, hey, the old guy did get to ogle her.
Today Eagleton wouldn't be a big deal. He'd just be on Prozac, and no one would give a rip. That was back when mental health issues were still stigmatized.
VC,
My guess is his internal polling showed him behind in key states. At least, I give his team enough credit to not make a panic pick without having a good reason to panic.
And hey, the media narrative turns on a dime. Sarah's a communications major; she gives an amazing speech and suddenly every pundit is calling Obama a sexist pig tomorrow. There's no way to tell what developments may happen.
Baz744 - As I understand it, the law in the US is that in order to successfully win libel or slander you have to prove that what someone said is FALSE. Meaning that Palin would have to take the Enquirer to court and prove that there story was totally fabricated lies.
And, someone mentioned McGovern/Eagleton:
the difference is, McCain had a shot of winning. McGovern didn't.
Folks, y'all are much too hard on McCain. He did vet Palin. He checked her teeth, made her lift her hooves, stroked her warm wet nose and patted her rump. Then he went out and told the Press that she was ready for the race. My money's on Big Brown for this one!
That is if this affair story isn't true. I sure hope it isn't, and she needs to blow it out of the water, badly.
"I know someone who knows someone who has drinks with someone who...
Anyhow. I know someone. And they say the Natl Enq dirt on Palin's extramarital activites is coming from within the family."
Well if the story is true and if it is coming from someone within the family, I can't say as I would blame Levi or Bristol for getting even with Mom...
Eric,
The answer is 1,233 people voted. She got 909 votes. The guy she beat was Stein and in one article he was pissed by her tactics. She had ads with "elect the first christian mayor of wasilla". She thought he Jewish b/c his name was Stein, though he wasn't. She is a true conservative relisgious righter..try to divide ob cultural, religion, etc...
McCain deserves EVERY bit of what is happening to him.
If he had stuck to the principles he had in 2000 instead of selling out to Rove and the bible-humpers, he'd probably be WINNING right now.
Today Eagleton wouldn't be a big deal. He'd just be on Prozac, and no one would give a rip. That was back when mental health issues were still stigmatized
And now people are also much more tolerant of marital messiness. It's just that teen pregnancy and marital affairs are so awkward in the party of... you know... family values....
"And they say the Natl Enq dirt on Palin's extramarital activites is coming from within the family."
If this is true (a big if) my money's on the mother-in-law. She doesn't seem to care much for Sarah.
Is this the first time in political history that the Hail Mary pass has been executed by handing off the ball to the opposing team's quarterback?
Brad,
Eagleton was picked and then it was found out he had electroshock therapy during a bout with clinical depresion.
He was dumped 2 weeks later.
The rolling disclosure from the Palin pick is the worst kind in politics.
It just increases the feeding frenzy of the press.
There are so many reporters who now believe they can make a name for themselves by scanning the internet for Palin rumors and then some simple digging in backwater Alaska gets them the big prize.
In addition, even if most of the stories don't pan out, the perception is some of them have to be true and there may still be bigger things we don't know.
With 2 months left, there is no time to debunk all of these.
Most importantly, the McCain camp is defending and not attacking. Every day that passes is a critical day lost.
I can't believe most R's aren't demanding that Palin must go.
As a D, I pray she stays.
Marital affairs are a big deal in any party, ask Bill Clinton.
"Today Eagleton wouldn't be a big deal. He'd just be on Prozac, and no one would give a rip. That was back when mental health issues were still stigmatized."
*If* he had just been on Prozac, maybe. But I'm assuming you don't think someone could survive the revelation of electroshock treatment now, do you? I don't see anyone weathering that even now.
Brad said...
i am a youngster. How was Eagleton worse than this?
Eagleton had electroshock therapy for depression, back when people thought only total nut cases had EST. He had to be pulled off the ticket.
September 3, 2008 6:41 PM
Virginia Conservative said...
"He was running behind anyway."
No, he was FUCKING TIED, had a good line of attack, and was moving up.
And what did he do? He blew it!
Nah, the Obama camp said they were well ahead, and there's not really a point in lying about something like that: you get less money and fewer volunteers when you say you're well ahead. I suspect McCain's internals said the same thing.
I think it's entirely possible that after Hillary and Bill made their speeches, McCain's internals told them they were screwed.
I think he was losing independents badly: Obama could win just by attracting more Democrats to the ticket, but McCain was topped out- he needed to get independents, and after Hill and Bill, it was clear he wouldn't. So he went the money route. At least, that's one possibility.
Of course, if that's true, then Obama owes a *lot* to the Clintons. They're not the type to forget a debt either. Obama/Clinton in 2012?
John King on CNN just moved Obama from 226 EV to 243.
"That is if this affair story isn't true. I sure hope it isn't, and she needs to blow it out of the water, badly"
Which is why this story has the reek of "Republican plant" on it. The Republicans are definitely trying to cultivate a "poor, persecuted Palin family" image here. If false, or lacking evidence, this is over the top.
If true, and backed by credible evidence... shall I say it??
60 Democrat Senate.
otf-
Please publicize the Stein thing in FL.
Matthew H,
You're right, Obama owes the Clintons a ton. They could have given a milquetoast endorsement and kept the race really close, and instead they both knocked it out of the park. Do they mean it? I highly doubt it. But skilled politicians, if nothing else, can fake it and give a good speech.
And hey, due to the primary length all (hopefully) of Obama's skeletons are out of the closet now. Can you *imagine* if we were just now getting the Wright stuff?
The speech is dripping with victimhood. She is trying to land the VP slot by playing the martyr.
And then she is off to Alaska according to MSNBC. She is going to slam the media tonight and then fly directly to Anchorage to hide from the press.
Wow what a plan.
The "open mike" debacle with a helpful transcript running along with the dialouge.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_o8XBJfIS7c
This is too wonderful.
Matthew H, I agree that Obama was probably further ahead than the national polls showed.
However, I agree with the spirit of VaCon's post... This election was in principle winnable for McCain with the safer course of needling Obama on the "not ready" charge along with a few shadowy 527-group smears about Islam, Jeremiah Wright, etc. Certainly I as an Obama supporter thought McCain still had a chance to pull it off that way. But he succeeded in the almost incredible task of making Barack Obama the "safe" choice. This election could cripple the GOP for a generation. But the Christian Right will at least have a nice party as the Titanic goes down.
baz-
This is way to close to home for a repub plant. The pub is way too bad. A repub plant would come through the NY Post or some other Murdoch owned paper they could control. This si real.
Keep in mind, the Edwards team from the National Enquirer has only been in AK two days. Give them time.
Despite the fact that a lot of the scandals surrounding Palin are far from completely proven, I think NC Voter made the crucial point - McCain is quickly losing his edge as the "safer" choice. He needed to build up enough doubt about Obama to depress turnout and get a lot of middle of the road voters to choose him as almost the default candidate. This is a lot of negative press for McCain's judgment and puts way more scrutiny on him than he wants.
The feeling I got from my conversation was it's not the immediate family spilling the beans on Palin.
The trooper Wooten vendetta has polarized the extended family, and many of them now hate each other's guts... so of course there's motivation for somebody to be really vindictive.
That said, Natl Enq doesn't run with stuff unless they're very certain. Those high-profile lawsuits are expensive.
(National Enquirer is more serious about vetting than John McCain.)
"And then she is off to Alaska according to MSNBC. She is going to slam the media tonight and then fly directly to Anchorage to hide from the press."
Sounds to me like she might even decline the nomination then. Hmmm.
Here is a question about this line:
“I guess a small-town mayor is sort of like a ‘community organizer,’ except that you have actual responsibilities.”
How does she deliver it without sounding bitchy? Without making it sound like a nasty putdown of inner city communities?
This is a thin line she's gonna walk.
Adam quoted:
"You're right, Obama owes the Clintons a ton. They could have given a milquetoast endorsement and kept the race really close, and instead they both knocked it out of the park. Do they mean it? I highly doubt it. But skilled politicians, if nothing else, can fake it and give a good speech."
BO don't owe the Clintons crap. If the Clintons had spread hate for BO theywould be done with the party, andthey still REALY WANT power.
Clintons had no choice, they did well, they made sure folks like me will vote for them. But they better close the deal as the party is truly Obama's after today.
VCon
Just wanted to say I admire how reasonable and honest you've been these past few days. If it were my guy, I'd have probably just avoided the board altogether. Good political discourse benefits everyone.
I agree - it's been a pleasure hearing your side of things.
“I guess a small-town mayor is sort of like a ‘community organizer,’ except that you have actual responsibilities.”
Is that an actual line from the speech? Linkies if you have it, plz. = D
Hmmm. Not sure I'm buying it Pluckon.
Doesn't defamation law grant broad immunity when writing about public officials? Can't you pretty much accuse them of eating babies and be immune from liability? Anyone with knowledge of defamation law: would appreciate your input.
I was a reporter. It is hard for a public official to win libel damages, but not impossible. Just a couple years ago a judge in either Massachusetts or Rhode Island won a big verdict against the Boston Herald for an unfounded allegation about being easy on sex offenders, and I speculate that Fox, which had repeated the allegation, wrote him a nice, big check behind closed doors.
The standard for public officials is that the item has to be untrue, and that it had to have been published with "malice," which is defined as "reckless disregard for truth or falsity."
For the McCain-Palin campaign to win damages, they would first have to show that the item isn't true. Then they'd have to show that the Enquirer acted as if it didn't care whether or not it was true.
So, if hauled into court, the Enquirer will simply open its kimono with respect to its sources. Given the explosive nature of the allegation, I would be shocked if this wasn't well-sourced.
Brad,
The Stein quote was in NY times article..here's the link.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/03/us/politics/03wasilla.html
“Sarah comes in with all this ideological stuff, and I was like, ‘Whoa,’ ” said Mr. Stein, who lost the election. “But that got her elected: abortion, gun rights, term limits and the religious born-again thing. I’m not a churchgoing guy, and that was another issue: ‘We will have our first Christian mayor.’ ”
“I thought: ‘Holy cow, what’s happening here? Does that mean she thinks I’m Jewish or Islamic?’ ” recalled Mr. Stein, who was raised Lutheran.
People who are saying the Palin Affair story is a deliberate Republican plant... I disagree completely.
1. Way, way too risky. How are they going to disprove the negative in this case? Just putting it out there means many voters will believe it from here on out. I understand the lasting trauma over Rove & Co., but they're not *that* good.
2. The Enquirer is too shrewd to get juked that easily. Just look at their masterful comeback to the McCain campaign. ZING!
Even the Enquirer's response, let alone the inside tip in a post above, suggests that this information is emerging from a catty family war. Family members generally have lots of information and evidence in cases like this, and the Enquirer is probably sitting on more evidence than they have currently released. Once they start flashing the money around in Wasilla, everyone will burst out of the woodwork wanting a piece of it.
I'm really finding Sarah Palin a fairly abhorrent creature at this point. She knew she had all these skeletons in the closet, yet was willing to ruin her family's life and run for VP anyway. If she'd stayed in Juneau we probably never would have heard about these things, and if heard we wouldn't have cared much.
And then she is off to Alaska according to MSNBC. She is going to slam the media tonight and then fly directly to Anchorage to hide from the press.
She's flying back to Alaska?! They must be getting ready to dump her. It makes utterly no sense for her to leave that convention if she's going to remain on the ticket.
If that's really true, then I'd say the Eagleton is soon to land. She'll blame it on family responsibilities and take a parting shot at the evil liberal media, no doubt.
Also, does anybody else find Palin's voice to be incredibly annoying? Maybe it's just me, but it makes it hard to take anything she says seriously.
Of course, the content of her speeches doesn't exactly help.
Yes, bravo, Virginia Conservative. You're one of a very few partisan commenters I've read on the internet who actually seems intellectually honest to me.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26525268/
“Since our opponents in this presidential election seem to look down on that experience, let me explain to them what the job involves,” Palin was to say. “I guess a small town mayor is sort of like a ‘community organizer,’ except that you have actual responsibilities.”
Off the topic of Palin:
in Romney's speech he said that:
"It's time to stop the spread of government dependency to fight it like the poison it is! It's time for the party of big ideas, not the party of Big Brother!"
Has Romney come from an alternative world where he has been suffering from eight years of Braun/Boxer?
I know it's an older post now, but the National Enquirer owned the McCain camp in their response.
The reason public officials are so often libeled with impunity is that none of them want to drag the allegation up into the public spotlight. So, for example, when the Enquirer reported that Bush was planning to dump his wife for Condoleezza Rice, they knew that there's never in a million years be a lawsuit.
But this one? Oh, I'm with the Enquirer, but I can just about guarantee you that this thing was run by the lawyers. They didn't just slap this thing into the paper, because if they did, it's the sort of libel that could cause them to lose the whole business.
Can anyone confirm that Palin's flying to Alaska tomorrow?
Obama's on O'Reilly, Palin's addressing the convention, Venus and Serena face each other in the quarterfinals at Flushing Meadows...all at the same time... my head is exploding!
Romney 2012?
Dave-
Not that I have seen. but the flight to AK started with Chuck Todd over at MSNBC and he is pretty good.
Please don't resign tonight Sarah, I am having fun!
Filistro-
And the football starts over the top of McCan'ts last big political speech! Go Giants!
But we know Todd's reporting it? Did he have any comment on it? It just seems really weird--surely she'd be sticking around for McCain's speech tomorrow night.
The great news is that Obama is on the attack on two fronts.
One directly against McCain on the issues and linking him to Bush.
The second the self immolation of Palin's candidacy, where he just sits back and watches.
McCain is busy defending Palin, but not defending himself nor attacking Obama.
He is attacking Obama, there was just an ad on CNN in PA, just watched it. Rang hollow today! Obam - not ready to lead. Well, compared to who John?
Dole on CNN, praying for a change in direction.
VCon @ 6:13 PM said...
This is the world's first documented case of autoswiftboating.
That sums it up perfectly.
The problem here isn't the candidate (Palin's a solid pick), it's the method of rolling her out to the public. It’s taken over a year for the public to get comfortable with Obama, and 9 weeks probably isn’t enough time to “publically vet” Palin. I think this move demonstrates either (1) a lack of foresight by McCain in thinking the media act this way, or (2) they wanted this media firestorm to change the debate. Either way, it doesn’t look good, and perception is more important that reality.
Guys, on only my second post, I'm once again behind the curve. Where the hell is this enquirer stuff coming from? There's nothing about it in MSM, nothing on TNR or NRO, and--near as I can tell--nothing on enquirer's website.
Are y'all just trying to pull my newbie chain here? Where's the beef?
Washington Post has it. So does CBS. The NY Times won't stain the breakfast cloth until everyone else has.
Always helpful to newbies:
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/09/03/mccain_aide_rips_tabloid_repor.html
learn to search news.google.com
Thanks, pluckton. I'll check it out.
Surreal - ABC is saying McCain is starting stories just to refute them
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/09/is-the-mccain-c.html
"The problem here isn't the candidate (Palin's a solid pick), it's the method of rolling her out to the public"
And here we have our answer to how the Republicans are going to spin this.
1) Palin was a solid pick.
2) Mistakes were made in rolling her out to the public.
3) The evil librul media ganged up on her just because she's woman and a conservative and waah waah waah.
4) If the librul media weren't persecuting us so hard, we'd stick with Palin, who really is a solid pick.
5) But the librul media is persecuting us: so we have to go with someone the media already knows, like Romney, Pawlenty, or Lieberman.
The base will eat it up. I have my doubts about anyone else.
I am also behind the curve on the marital affair story, and assume it's bogus until some actual evidence comes out (or she gets dropped from the ticket). This move now looks riskier by the minute.
At this point the Republicans are not really having a convention, just a referendum on whether Sarah Palin is qualified to be VP. McCain will not have a big audience tomorrow and won't impress even if he does. Even Big McCain backers would acknowledge he's probably never given a good speech. So over the next 60 days when people's decisions are cemented, Obama will have had a great convention and McCain will not have really had one at all. Sure he shored up his base, but he needed "ticket-splitters" as Mike Murphy calls them. Not happening. Maybe a few women, but nowhere near the amount they need. Even if the GOP wins the battle with this whole Sarah Palin thing, they'll lose the war. McCain has to convince a lot of somebodies that he should be President that haven't been convinced yet. Just because a chunk of people will feel sorry for and maybe be impressed by Palin tonight, doesn't mean 60 days from McCain won over a large group of voters. The "ticket-splitters" count twice because they vote for yours instead of theirs, the evangelicals that didn't like McCain and would've stayed home instead only count once if you get my math.
"Even Big McCain backers would acknowledge he's probably never given a good speech."
This is blatantly false. Politico.com had a story just today documenting McCain's numerous stem winders. The man can give a knockout speech. He's sure to give one tomorrow.
Harold Meyerson of the WaPo posts:
I have combed the schedule of events here without finding a single forum, workshop or kaffeeklatsch devoted to what John McCain and the Republican Party propose to do a
Can this be true? What is the man thinking?
Brad --
Noone will take the VP slot even if he dumps her.
I dunno... I bet Lieberman would.
The conspiracist in me is churning.
;-)
There's less than meets the eye to the Enquirer story. They reported that some people in the extended Palin family are alleging that this affair occurred. It's all tied to Palin's vendetta against the trooper of "Troopergate."
So, the Enquirer isn't saying there was an affair, but rather saying that people are saying it. Wasilla, Alaska is quite the little gossip factory!
So I guess you're unfucked, VA Conservative. For now. All of it does beg the question of why the McCain campaign chose to spread the story by commenting on it.
DrMatt, I'm with you. I think there's a bit of feeding-frenzy mentality at work here. Until I see something more substantial than all this, I'm going to default to "bogus story" mode. I think VACentrist is being a little too glum and the Obamaphiles a little too giddy in this particular corner of the blogoverse.
Adam said...
There's one thing to realize about the "Palin worst ever" stuff:
He was running behind anyway. Clearly he felt he had to try a bold play that could backfire. Remember how we all said it was a hail mary play? Most of the time, those fall incomplete, gaining no yards.
Yeah but, Jesus... How often does the quarterback get sacked on a Hail Mary play? That's what this is turning into.
Meanwhile, since y'all have been crying out for state polls, a new CNN/Time poll puts Obama out front in IA and MN, and even-steven in Ohio.
Just one CNN poll, but for now I'll have to give that more credence than the sticky pages of the Enquirer.
Um, it's not the Enquirer's pages that are sticky. Anyway, I think they reported the story accurately: Her family is split over the way she handled "Troopergate" and how she handled the succession in Wasilla after she left the mayor's office there.
Some of them are sufficiently pissed off to tell the National Enquirer that she was being boned by her husband's fishing buddy until he found out about it and shoved him out to sea on an ice floe or whatever it is they do there.
America is about to find out that Alaska is nothing but West Virginia with better press.
Yeah, pluck, I get that, but it seems to just boil down to something somebody in her family said. There's no smoking phallus here. THere's no blue dress. There's no _there_ there.
Maybe this will blow up in the next few days. That would be....colorful. But I suspect this will either fizzle out entirely, or maybe even play to McCain's benefit. If it turns out to have no legs, it could actually help inoculate her from future eruptions. We'll see.
someone said surreal ... that's the word! this whole thing is getting wierder by the minute. Anyone watching palin? do I dare?
filistro - where's your cold cloth!
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