Obama's Goals
1. Appear to be the adult in the room. Cool-headedness may play well tonight.
2. Explain the economic crisis in terms even a 10-year-old could understand.
3. Force McCain to commit to a particular position on the bailout.
4. Tie the foreign policy debate to the economy.
5. Deflect accusations that he is too aloof by showing some humor.
6. Acknowledge the success of the surge, but ask whether the war has made us better off than we were six years ago.
7. Combat the perception that he would be too slow to send us into a good war.
8. Recognize that, while a tie goes to him because he's ahead in the polls, he has sometimes done poorly when he's tried to play it too safe.
McCain's Goals
1. Avoid appearing too impulsive, and explain what in the hell he's been up to for the past 48 hours.
2. Explain the economic crisis in terms even a 10-year-old could understand.
3. Force Obama to commit to a specific position on the bailout.
4. Tie the foreign policy debate to gas prices and the energy crsis.
5. Deflect accusations that he is too hot-tempered by showing some humility.
6. Recognize that public opinion has improved significantly on Iraq; tout the success of the surge.
7. Combat the perception that he would be too quick to send us into a bad war.
8. Recognize that, while he needs to make up siginficant ground, he is probably too far behind to turn the election around in one night, and that gimmickry may not sell.
*** Also, Ross Smith, the head coach of Wake Forest University's outstanding debate team, has an outstanding preview up of what to watch for tonight.
...and for our New York area readers, I'll be on WNYC at the top of some point during the hour. EDIT: Actually, anybody should be able to listen here.
9.26.2008
Debate Goals
by Nate Silver @ 7:24 PM...see also debates
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94 comments
"3. Force Obama to commit to a specific position on the bailout."
I don't see how that's a trap. Obama's been on the record for days now. He'll just give his 4 principles and say that he'll support a bill with them.
Sept 26 Polling Update
Obama 301, McCain 237
A 700 Billion Dollar Question
ACORN, a Chicago Democrat liberal machine organization will benefit from the bail-out!
They steal elections for Democrats like Obama.
2. Explain the economic crisis in terms even a 10-year-old could understand.
I'm pretty sure this is impossible.
Hey Nate,
How's ole Ross doing these days? I was on the debate circuit for years and he was a good poker player and certainly could drink like a champ :)
#11 for Obama
Hang the GOP House proposal around McCain's neck and explain how this unilateral unappropriated last minute action was reckless and irresponsible and could have possibly caused a major U.S. economic disaster and by McCain not opposing it while he had the opportunity in the W.H., he failed at why he came to Washington, that being uniting this Nation by reaching across party lines and coming up with a solution rather than a divisive politics as usual reaction.
"They steal elections for Democrats like Obama."
lol @ saying Democrats steal elections. Have you even been listening to the news stories of republican corruption? Have you not lived through 2000 and 2004?
I think that Obama is such a primo debater and an intellectual, that McCain only needs to go out there and be able to stand for the 90 minutes and he wins big.
Do you mean WNYC Nate, the public radio station?
"I think that Obama is such a primo debater and an intellectual, that McCain only needs to go out there and be able to stand for the 90 minutes and he wins big."
Yeah, that's basically what he did yesterday in that meeting and look how well THAT turned out. LOL.
Not doing #2 has been the greatest failing so far of our leaders in this crisis. I hope Obama and McCain takes the opportunity to do this.
#8 (Obama). True, but not going to happen. He's very cautious by nature. His Presidency will be too.
Ohio 2004.
btw
anyone can listen to wnyc here:
http://www.wnyc.org/
Did he McCain accomplish setting the bar low when the bar should be high for him? This worked with Palin.
Will you be on the WNYC AM 820, or FM 93.9?
Who is with me for the drinking game? Sip when any pundit uses a baseball term to describe a potential or actual candidate performance, gulp when you hear "home run."
Granted, I'll be drinking juice and soda as a teetotaler, but I'll be pretty hopped up on sugar I'm guessing.
"Not doing #2 has been the greatest failing so far of our leaders in this crisis."
(Butthead)
Uh huhhuh, uh huhhuh, huhhuhhuhhuh,uh huhhuh, uhhh...oh yeah, number 2, uh huhhuh huhhuh...
(/Butthead)
The expectation game is overrated. If you set expectations low, people will say you won the debate but they still won't vote for you.
Obama just needs a draw here. His check list should be shorter than McCain's.
That's an interesting question, Eric.
Does the expectation game really come into play with the general public or the media?
Polls show people expect Obama to win the debate, but people in the know (pundits etc.) are convinced FP is where McCain should do better.
Leave the audience with a soundbite they will remember a la "A noun, a verb and 9/11". Biden has gained a lot of political capital with that statement.
How many times will McCain say "My friends"?
Over/Under 12
I'm with ya on the drinking game Inkstain. For McCain its a "my friends"... what about Obama? "Ummm"? No thats not specific enough.
Inkstain, you're hilarious re drinking game.
CNN is really going over the top with real time ticker on their "selected" audience and the six moronic talking heads.
Sad.
Irrelevant of anyone's leanings, I think it's silly to have the media so eager to program the public's reaction with such gimmicks.
I'll say "my friends" = 16
We got a taste of how Obama will battle McCain on Iraq during his 60 Minutes interview last Sunday.
Obama referred to the "Mythology" that the war didn't exist before the surge, and that McCain would rather you ignore the previous 5 years, during which he was consistently wrong about everything on Iraq.
Obama's should be:
"I've always been in favor of"....
That's what he says as he's explaining a flip flop. :)
McCain's should be non-verbal - when he fires off a mean line and does the fake grin - i expect at least 5 of those.
{Barack Obama said...
ACORN, a Chicago Democrat liberal machine organization will benefit from the bail-out!
They steal elections for Democrats like Obama.}
Ahh thats the new republican smeer thats hit youtube tonight. ACORN us the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now, a community organization of low- and moderate-income families that addresses housing, schools, neighborhood safety, health care, job conditions, and other social issues that affect its members.
In other words "Socialists".
Prepare for people saying that some of their members have been thrown in jail for votor fraud. True-ish. Quoting wikipedia for laziness
{In 2007, five Washington state ACORN workers were sentenced to jail time.[24] ACORN agreed to pay King County $25 000 for its investigative costs and acknowledged that the national organization could be subject to criminal prosecution if fraud occurs again. According to King County Prosecuting Attorney Dan Satterberg, the misconduct was done "as an easy way to get paid [by ACORN], not as an attempt to influence the outcome of elections.}
As you can see here Barracks statement about that it was Chicago based is not true even from that statement. Also as can be seen, the scam was an attempt to defraud ACORN itself, not Votes, and ACORN got hit again for another $25,000 because of it.
Obama, apparently, defended the organization while he was a lawyer, which is consistent with his record as a community activist.
McCain is better at playing to the audience. And he won't say my friends because he'll be addressing the moderator.
He'll win the debate but lost the election anyway
That over/under for "my friends" seems too low.
I'll go with 19.
Great commentary -- I will print this out and use it as my score card. I will also be voting robot no matter what anybody says tonight. http://www.VoteRobot.org
Geoff, are you honestly wnating to argue that Obama flip-flops more than McCain? Please tell me you're kidding. If you want to argue Obama's too liberal that's fine, but a flip-flopper compared to McCain give me a break!
It's true about the "my friends" thing. It's a crutch for the stump when he doesn't know what to say. Much less likely in a debate. Similar to Bidenisms like "litraly"
So to be clear: Nate Silver is soon going to be on WNYC 93.9 just after 8PM EST?
It's 8:03 and I'm listening on the website and it's boooooooooooooring...
The Iraq war issue is a winning one for McCain. Why? Because saying "the surge is working!" (a vast, vast oversimplification that I guarantee McCain will pull) sounds better than "The war was a mistake in the first place, but our troops have done a good job at least stabilizing the situation when we gave them enough support" (closer to the truth but too complicated for the average voter to latch on to, they will prefer "surge works!! yeah!!" as a talking point).
Nice Nate, I love it when you are on WNYC with Brian (best host anywhere)
I´m not at the debate.
The polls said that McCain decition is wrong.
I´ll go to Mississippi.
Flip flop too.
McCain decided a while ago he'd whore himself out to hhe Rep party to try to get elected. If you can't beat 'em, join 'em. It's why his campaign is such an unadulterated mess. The 2000 McCain can't get elected. That's who he really wants to be. He's stuck with the Roveians trying to get him elected and he wantsto be the Maverick man of integrity. I like that guy, but he doesn't exist anymore. His Presidency would be hijacked by them if he got elected too. If he goes back to the Senate he can probably find himslef again, but please don't try to call Obama a flip-flopper. It's very unbecoming.
eponymous said...
The Iraq war issue is a winning one for McCain. Why? Because saying "the surge is working!" (a vast, vast oversimplification that I guarantee McCain will pull) sounds better than "The war was a mistake in the first place, but our troops have done a good job at least stabilizing the situation when we gave them enough support" (closer to the truth but too complicated for the average voter to latch on to, they will prefer "surge works!! yeah!!" as a talking point).
-----------------
Obama should concede the surge point but he needs to talk about the decision to invade and occupy in the first place.
He'll never win the surge argument, but he can't lose the Iraq debate as a whole.
Point #8 for Obama, besides not being something he could tangibly accomplish in the debate, is wrong. It's precisely because Obama has stuck to the between-the-tackles game plan, that he's in the commanding position he finds himself in. Obama will take no risks tonight, and would be crazy if he did.
Ooh! How about a drinking game for McCain saying "the surge is working"?
Or how about one for every meaningless platitude? Nah, I don't want any of y'all to get liver disease.
It's easy: "Change" (for both candidates)
kth said...
Point #8 for Obama, besides not being something he could tangibly accomplish in the debate, is wrong. It's precisely because Obama has stuck to the between-the-tackles game plan, that he's in the commanding position he finds himself in. Obama will take no risks tonight, and would be crazy if he did.
----------------
Agreed. Run the ball and hang onto it. Churn out some yardage and a few first downs but chew up the clock.
There are two more debates and both are more favorable to Obama than this one on FP.
However, on the economy he needs some play action passes to keep the defense honest.
OK I've tortured that analogy enough.
"Gates of Hell" comes out of Lehrer, McCain, and/or Obama's mouth.
Odds: Even
Lehrer : 2:1
McCain : 2:1
Obama : 3:1
McCain has the ball at his own 2. There's 5 minutes to go and he's down 13 points. As Tiger would say "I like my chances".
If I'm Obama, I say:
"As long as our troops are there, the situation looks well. But we cannot keep them there forever."
State the obvious, make it sound like your opponent is against it. It's a more subtle way of making the "100 years" argument.
realistxxx,
That's my point though, McCain will not let him say two sentences about Iraq without mentioning the surge. And so it will be impossible for him to separate the two issues in the public's mind of the decision to invade and the surge, where he would win one, and the pundits decree that he loses the debate on Iraq.
Well maybe I'm wrong. I'll check back here in a little bit to see what happened, but I agree with an earlier poster. It's just too nerve-wracking to watch something which will have such a major impact on the fate of our country. Not to mention it's disgusting and just plain scary to see the people who want to lead our country be reduced to meaningless oversimplifications in the pursuit of fleeting popularity.
We've spent a trillion $+ there. For what?
"That's my point though, McCain will not let him say two sentences about Iraq without mentioning the surge. And so it will be impossible for him to separate the two issues in the public's mind of the decision to invade and the surge, where he would win one, and the pundits decree that he loses the debate on Iraq."
That remains to be scene. Both sides are master spinners for a reason.
I have to presume that Obama has some sort of spin planned for the surge, we'll see if it works.
Eric, way back, they're about the same re # of flip flops, leave it at that. :)
Eric said...
We've spent a trillion $+ there. For what?
--------------
BINGO! Tie the money we've spent in Iraq with the bailout. Imagine if we had an extra trillion lying around for just such a domestic crisis.
Too late. John McCain and George Bush decided to spend it on a war we should have never started.
Eric, 100:1 on Obama "gates of hell"
Sarah Palin and "The economy is fundametally sound" have lost a huge chunk of the "undecided" vote for McCain that he can't get back. He has to destroy Obama in every debate to win this thing. Obama is not the type to get whooped over and over, unless his competituion is vastly superior. McCain ain't that competition. This thing is pretty much over already. He can almost kneel 3 times and win.
Depending on the questions, McCain may have to explain how Palin, with her obvious complete lack of any idea what foreign policy even is, is ready to take over as President
Becky Sharp: Good one. I bet on a total of about 30 "Change" between them.
I sympathize with those who can't bear to watch such a tricked out, media-driven, meaningless but vital event. But I won't be able no to watch anyway.
Geoff said...
Eric, 100:1 on Obama "gates of hell"
I don't suppose Obama will say he'll follow anyone to the gates of hell ,but he did use that term in his convention speech.
eve said...
Depending on the questions, McCain may have to explain how Palin, with her obvious complete lack of any idea what foreign policy even is, is ready to take over as President
-----------
Hopefully, Lehrer will ask about the decision making process in both candidates' VP selections.
Hey, did ya'll see Palin's response to Couric about the bailout? That was disturbing. Nothing else Palin has done or said has been disturbing to me. Disappointing yes, but this was really scary. It was like an awkward answer in a job interview, where you know you're not going to get that job. If ya'll haven't see it, you probably think I'm exaggerating, someone back me up. Worst I've ever seen I think. Of course I remember Bush debating Ann Richards in 1994. Similarly pathetic answer. He got elected. So who knows.
McCain: My friends
Obama: Uh...
Biden: Literally, sincerely, ladies and gentleman.
Biden is fun to impersonate in every day speech.
Ladies and gentlemen, and I mean this sincerely, I literally--LITERALLY--drank beer all weekend! (Solemn tone) Ladies and gentlemen, I have a killer headache.
If you guys go to CNN.com, watch the "10 great debate moments." It's epic.
Angry Reagan is way better than funny Reagan.
Admiral Stockdale will be the gold standard of bad VP picks no matter how bad Palin is (nor how big a doofus Biden is).
Dukakis' running mate (Bentson? Fentley? Something like that) bent Dan Quayle over his knee and gave him an intellectual spanking, and Quayle looked like he was going to cry.
The incredulous commentator after Ford said his infamous line is just awesome.
"That's my point though, McCain will not let him say two sentences about Iraq without mentioning the surge. And so it will be impossible for him to separate the two issues in the public's mind of the decision to invade and the surge, where he would win one, and the pundits decree that he loses the debate on Iraq."
I don't know if you guys have picked up on this, but I don't own a TV, so I don't watch much of anything. If there's something I really want, I get it streaming over the net, so the pre-Debate shows tonight are the first political shows I've watched in forever.
I couldn't even take it for five minutes, and I turned it off and will just stream C-SPAN.
I do agree on the point that when McCai references the surge it's a winner for him. I think the war shouldn't have been authorized and the Dems should've stood up to the Regime in 2002, but I'll admit politically it works for McCain. I bet he references it at least 10 times and tries to talk about it for about 1/2 the time he's up there.
I won't be watching or listening.
It's formula and they'll both be playing it safe.
Well not unless you guys start telling me its getting interesting...
@Eric
Obama can counter that with "the military success of the surge was only half the goal" or "what about the 5 years prior to the surge?"
McCain will still score the point, but it blunts his argument somewhat.
70% think Obama wins the debate on foreign policy?!?! Someone created false low expectations. My lord! If McCain can't win a debate on foreign policy, then why exactly did he run for Prez in the first place!
I think who is perceived as "the winner" tonight will come down to how hard Lehrer presses, or how much the candidates are allowed to press each other.
McCain has not excelled in any Republican primary debates that I remember. (And when the competition included Guiliani, Romney, and Huckabee... that's saying alot).
My Prediction:
Obama will play it safe. Proabably too safe.
McCain will show ZERO class.
Whatever happens, McCain's surrogates will act delusional, but they'll manage to steer the media narrative. Why? Because...
The McCain Media will spin tonight as a postive for McCain, no matter what happens. Anything short of a gaffe will be a victory.
Bottom line: The MSM need a Horse Race.
@porridgegun:
I think Obama will be a bit more pointed than you expect. I figure he'll carry the same tone he's had this week.
Calm, above the fray, but authoritative. I don't think he'll defer like he did in some earlier primary debates.
Nate,
Good interview! You should try to cut back on saying "you know" as a verbal pause, but you come across on radio just like you do here: as smart, competent, and fair.
The totally weird thing was that you were on with a guy from my local newspaper: the abysmal Daily News Record. Strange stuff.
When I say McCain will show ZERO class. I mean that he'll throw in a few cheap shots.
Glad to see the Red tie.
Why the fuck is this being held in Mississippi?
Is the red tie deliberate?
Fuck off McCain.
He's pandering already.
What is all this nonsense about Palin being taken off the ticket or ducking the debate? Doesn't everyone realize it just lowers expectations to the point of making it very easy for her to excel? The campaign must cringe every time they read or hear anyone saying that. It might make you feel smart, but it's not smart if you're trying to help Obama.
Did McCain just gaffe?
Contrarily McCain's tie is making me have a seizure
Lying Cunt.
Obama isn't "uhhing" or "umming" so far
You said you would fire him, dickhead. You can't do that. Big Difference.
OHHH GOD!!!
They won't talk to each other
McCain's tie is dizzying!
what about the crabs in Alaska?
why won't they say if they approve the bailout?
HA! "I didn't win miss congenialty in the senate" -- McCain
No, your VP.
McCain needs to stop acting so self-righteous about the earmarks.
McCain's economic plan creates more debt that Obama's plan and more tax breaks to the rich.
I saw the analysis on CNN.
Obama is missing a major opportunity on the earmarks, becaue McCain is totally clowning. Much of the aid for Israel is financed through earmarks. The vast majority of earmarks aren't mere pork for the home folks, but are perfectly legitimate projects (if perhaps enacted in a less-than-perfect way).
John McCain. has no respect for Obama. He looks down while Obama is talking. He wont' even look in his direction.
Jim Leher just told him to respond directly to Obama and he's still talking to Jim and calling people my friends.
Now Obama is looking at McCain straight in his face as he talks.
McCain doesn't listen, does he?
He's a prick.
Obama's winning after that creepy giggle.
cheap shot 1#
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