There seems to be an unusually strong reaction in the trading markets this morning, with John McCain's stock at Intrade having gained 5 points, moving up to 44.7 percent. There are a number of reasons that trading markets can move, but I don't think it is warranted in reaction to the Rasmussen tracking poll alone, which today showed Barack Obama's lead diminishing from 5 points to 2.
The reason is that, as many of my commentators have pointed out, the movement was in part the result of a very good Obama night of interviews cycling out of the three-day rolling average. A while ago, I developed an algorithm for trying to extract the daily results for tracking polls from the rolling averages. I'll describe this methodology at more length when we have a bit more time to work with -- this is a slightly more difficult problem than it seems at first glance, and by no means is the method foolproof. But here is its best estimate of the results from individual nights' interviews in the Rasmussen tracking poll going back to Saturday the 22nd, when Joe Biden was officially rolled out as Barack Obama's VP:
Note that Monday night -- when Gustav dominated the news and the disclosure of Bristol Palin's pregnancy had broken -- was a very good night of polling for Obama, something which could easily enough be inferred because he moved up by 3 points in the rolling average that day. The algorithm estimates that the polling that day was Obama +11. But that day cycled out of the three-day rolling average today, meaning that Obama was liable to lose ground unless he had another equally huge night.
Our best estimate of the result from last night -- the first night in which voters had a chance to react to Sarah Palin's speech -- was Obama +2 (actually, Obama +1.7). That's down from his results for most of the past week or so, but not really that bad after what was supposed to be a huge emotional crescendo for the GOP.
Remember, moreover, as I've said many times, that a bounce is usually just a bounce -- meaning that it is something ephemeral which will fade fairly quickly. While the effects of various sorts of news events are difficult to disentangle from one another, I would guess that if McCain can't close to at least a rough tie in the tracking polls over the weekend, we will most likely see Obama a couple of points ahead by a week from today, once the race has a chance to stabilize a little bit.
EDIT: The Gallup numbers (now at Obama +4 for the three-day average) tell a similar story ... we show the Thursday result as Obama +1 (more precisely, Obama +1.4):
EDIT #2: There's also a discussion in the comments about Rasmussen's party ID weightings, which are adjusted on a monthly basis. If I attempt to retrospectively adjust the July and August results to reflect Rasmussen's present party ID targets, I wind up with an estimate of Obama +3, rather than Obama +2, for yesterday's interviews. The issue of weighting in general adds uncertainty to this process, however, as I don't know exactly when and how Rasmussen implements their party ID targets each month.
9.05.2008
Crackin' a Trackin' Poll
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W., tell me something I don't know.
McCain's speech ain't gonna do it.
Absolutely upstaged by his VP. And apparently that's what his base wanted.
Bridget Palin?
Bridget Stalin. To nowhere.
Clearly (as I read it)
The GOP ticket is now:
mccain/PALIN 2008?
Thanks for all you do Nate and Sean!
i wonder if Obama has a brother called Gustav? He is very cosmopolitan, remember.
I love the analysis here.... Not. If I want to read the DailyKOS-MoveOn.org talking point's, I'll go there Nate...
Your left wing Obama bias has been showing greatly the past month, and you can spin the polls your way, you can spin Palin's speech your way, but it won't work.
MCCAIN PALIN 2008!
Does this mean that tomorrow's rasmussen will be more positive for Obama, because McCain's +2 day will cycle out and McCain's speech will start to cycle in? I can't imagine his speech really did him much good. (surely not as much good as the palin speech?)
Nate-
Very grateful for these daily numbers.
Surprising to see Obama wining 6 of the 7 daily results since the Palin announcement.
McCain has to know he's being upstaged by this pretty face from nowhere. This story on Talking Points Memo speculates that Palin was assigned the first-rate writers for her speech, leaving McCain with the second-stringers for his.
Geoff
I hope your analysis is correct, the Rasmussen poll scared the hell out of me today.
PALIN: Make This Viral.
Nate--
Any ideas as to why the Rasmussen and Gallup trackers have diverged so sharply all of a sudden? Is it just because Rasmussen had one huge Obama day that was uncharacteristic of their general tendency to have Obama a point or two lower than Gallup?
I don't know much about how Intrade works, but it does seem that very small amounts of trading can cause huge moves. All the action today seems to comprise no more than 10 or 12 thousand units for each candiaite.
I think that could be explained just by lots of convention delegates getting back home to their computers and, still jazzed by their "Palin high," each buying a few hundred units of McCain.
Watever the reason, the "bounce" is now flattening just as Palin's did, and should be back to the 60-40 range in a few more hours.
Can you give us an update w/ a ballpark for the margin of error for these daily figures? (Just to reflect the smaller sample sizes -- assuming your method of extracting the part-results is accurate.)
I always find it amusingly baffling why people dependably check in day after day to report how much they hate it here.
It's interesting that McCain is trading higher than "republican to win." Anyway, I agree, and thank you for the numbers nate.
CtStW-
This is a numbers post. If you don't like the numbers, go somewhere else.
Finally a break for anyone on this site still interested in polling.
The latest Democracy Corps poll for September 1-3 shows Obama up +5 with leaners: BO 49, JM 44, RN 1, BB 2.
The poll's internals also show respondents reaction to Palin nationwide and in the battle-ground states:
Q.80 As you may know, Senator John McCain selected Alaska Governor Sarah Palin to be his vice presidential running mate. Does this make you more or less likely to support John McCain for President?
Total Battle-Ground
Much more likely 29 29
Somewhat more likely 17 15
(No difference) 9 9
Somewhat less likely 11 10
Much less likely 30 32
(Don't know/refused) 4 4
Total more likely 45 44
Total less likely 42 43
More - Less + 4 2
Not much of a gain for the addition of Palin for the ticket particularly if you look at the much more likely versus much less likely numbers.
So, when I try to extrapolate the daily results of 3-day tracking polls, the results start oscillating wildly very, very quickly -- even when there is high confidence in the initial guesses (such as when you have a string of very consistent days). Within a week, you get wild swings that are probably just overcorrections of the rapidly accumulating error.
I'm not saying you are wrong -- if fact, there is likely a technique I don't know about. How are you doing this here?
Not only that. The unemployment numbers out today surely won't do the GOP any favors.
It's believed that a candidate's ceiling is usually measured by the post-convention bounce. Obama cracked 51%, and if McCain can't surpass the 47-48% mark in the next day or two he's in real trouble.
If he does crack the 50% mark we have one hell of a horse race on our hands.
I shouldn't really say this. But I had a dream about this many years ago. Before blogs and all of that even existed really. I didn't know what it meant then, but now I do... Sort of. ... Perhaps time really is concurrent?
"you can spin Palin's speech your way, but it won't work."
Continue to Spread the Word!!! -- I have a simple question.
No spin. Just a simple question.
Why is Sarah Palin afraid to hold a press conference, so she can answer questions from the people she wants to lead?
Nielsen's prelims show that more Americans watched McCain's speech than Obama's. Rasmussen says Palin is now more popular than Obama or McCain.
If Obama leads by 2 points in the national polls on the day before the election, he will lose due to the Bradley effect.
I could not disagree more. Since last Friday with the Palin announcement, McCain and Palin had been under withering attacks by the MSM with much speculation about REMOVING her from the ticket, as we all recall!
Her speech changed everything. All polling before the night of her speech is obviously worthless. Palin's impact with white working class (no college) women will be picked up over the next week and its bearing in the the election (and polls) WILL NOT FADE.
You guys are simply missing what has just happened - it is astounding how clueless the boys on this board are:
McCain-Palin will be UP 2 to 3 pts at this time next week.
Any so called "Bradley Effect" would be wiped out by Obama's superior GOTV effort and the "Cellphone Effect."
Michael: If your candidate is so wonderful, why is she running off to hide in a cave?
Why should the American people vote for someone who's afraid to answer their questions?
Insight-
The BE is because people lie when they don't have a reason to justify what they think.
People don't lie to computers. Computers don't judge.
People don't lie when they have a plausible reason. (Experience, Judgement, Abortion, Whatever)
Tarik,
The margin of error is on the order of +/- 1.2 points, if the method works as well as it's theoretically supposed to (which it probably doesn't).
What's this obsession with Intrade?
Early this morning it was Obama at +9 and now it's at +13. So McCain lost 4% in a couple of hours.
If that's the best an entire week of GOP attention can get you, I wouldn't call it a home run, no matter how high Obama was earlier.
Michael - I'm trying to understand this point. What about her speech changed things? What line or lines in it will create a lasting effect? I'm trying to understand the phenomenon. Maybe you can help.
I know everyone is information starved so parses the hell out of these daily trackers, but national daily trackers are generally rather lousy sets of data for a presidential election.
Do we know when some meaty state-level data is going to hit?
Michael - People are mostly ignorant of Sarah Palin's extremist right wing views and the fact that she tried to get books burned and that the pastor at her church is an anti-semite and that her husband belonged to a secessionist party for many years. Not to mention (OK I am mentioning it) the extramarital affair story that the National Enquirer is running with (they broke the John Edwards story, remember.)
Palin read a teleprompter. Big deal. She was a sportscaster for God's sake. Let's see what she does when she does an actual interview or 3.
If Obama leads by 2 points in the national polls on the day before the election, he will lose due to the Bradley effect.
The Bradley effect is aging along with the voters for whom its a factor.
There won't be a Bradley effect among voters under 35, except perhaps in states that are prohibitively red anyways.
Voters 18-34 are the kingmakers in this election. All they have to do is show up in numbers comparable to older voters (and they can vote early in nearly every battleground state) and Obama wins handily.
Nate, it is about the first time I actually disagree with you on a technical point. I repeat a point made on an earlier thread:
For decoding the Rasmussen series, it is imperative to make it as smooth as possible. This is because Party ID weighting is an enormous smoothing tool.
The bounciness of your reconstructed nights is reasonable for pre-weighted numbers, but we are talking weighted numbers here.
FWIW, my own reconstruction is:
4 -4
3 +6
2 +4
1 +4
31 +6
30 +7
29 -2
28 +6
27 +9
I think the Palin announcement day was actually a bad Obama polling day, not in raising Obama's numbers but by lowering everyone's: many many people went into "undecided" mode, "need to know more".
Michael: If your candidate is so wonderful, why is she running off to hide in a cave?
In training to become Dick Cheney; they're starting with "disclosed locations" before they work their way up to "undisclosed."
Nate: Does Rasmussen do anything with weighting of days (i.e. putting more emphasis on more recent days), or is it just a straight-up average?
charting specific events to effects on specific days seems a little simplistic. Facts often times take 3-5 days to cause changes in poles. Mainly because a good audience of say 38 million for a speech, was only watched by 20% of households (roughly 200 million households in US right now) so the chances of polls catching only peoples first hand reaction from seeing the speech the day before is pretty slim, maybe 25-40% given obviously likely voters ussually pay more attention. so the other 60 to 75% react in the days following, when they read and hear the news, or view snippets of the speech or see their friends and family's reaction to the speech. So the +6 and +11 nights are most likely convention bounce. And most likely we have not seen much of the McCain bounce yet, but it should happen over the weekend.
"Let's see what she does when she does an actual interview or 3."
These will all be staged and scripted.
Sarah Palin is the biggest fraud candidate ever foisted on the American public. She is a complete creation of the GOP political machine and the unwillingness of the media to do their jobs.
This is the ultimate insult to the intelligence of the American people, and its ultimate test as well.
Cellphones are included in Gallup's tracker and in some other polls too, so don't look for cellphone salvation on election day.
Obama had a big GOTV edge until the Palin pick. Now the GOP shock troops are revved up that carried OH for Dubya last time (along with Diebold help perhaps).
again I am trying to get someone to explain to me how you run for VP without doing national interviews or press conferences. Biden has had quite a few solo conferences. will be on the shows this sunday. Palin has only been campaigning with McCain and then will dissapear and bunker down. no press. no solo time.
This is not about smearing her--I just don't get the logic. No matter our political beliefs as humans we have an instinctive reaction that when someone hides from the press they have something they don't want to face. Just leaves a bad impression. People do not know her enough to be 100% committed to her (except hard core republicans) that soft commitment can not be hardened by her hiding. For good or bad Obama and McCain's impressions are rather stable. Hers not. So what gives? Thoughts?
Brian - Not soon enough. Most likely Wednesday of next week. Quinnipiac has been silent since the 26th. The SurveyUSA congressional races are decent in the interim, but I'd only give them a "538-style" weight of 0.50.
It would be interesting to analyze the Intrade trading. The total volume today on Obama and McCain's contract combined is about $33,000. Even in more liquid markets like the stock market, if a single seller or buyer comes into a market for than about 20-30% of the daily volume a 10% price movement is not common which is what we've seen on this day. So a McCain supporter (or the campaign itself) with $10,000 could have produced today's movements. Now why would they? Well, Intrade is pretty commonly quoted in news stories so if you wanted to make McCain's speech seem impactful, propping up the Intrade market through the Sunday talkshows would be a lot of free media... a hell of a lot more than $10,000/day could do in a TV ad buy. Besides, it really isn't $10,000/day since it is unlikely that McCain's numbers will ever go below 30% probability in the next month so you can back out of the trades over the next 30 days and only lose at most 1/3 of your buy. So now it costs the McCain campaign $3,000/day for free media touting his speech. True this is a conspiracy theory, but Palin speech was WAY better received than McCain's, so why didn't that produce a bump in the Intrade market for McCain?
Watching Intrade contracts is like trying to figure out the Street's reaction to the latest AAPL roll-out. For a while the pattern was that the price would run up during Steve Jobs's speech and the rest of the day. The press would rave over the product. The next day the stock would fall back to (or below) it's original value as people tried to take their profits. The press would worry about the product not being accepted by the market. Apple would then move a million units.
Rhys.. Good question. It is undeniable the media attacked her this past weekend and ripped her family apart. There is no doubt the media would bring the family back into this with a press conference.
The media is in the tank for Obama and will try to ask questions that will make Palin look bad.
Yes she'll need to hold a press conference in the coming days, but I do believe the way the media treated her is a big reason why they are not letting her have one.
She needs to get polished on her weaknesses, and that is something that she will be doing over the coming days.
Good Question.
The MSM attacked her, so why should she go answer there questions just yet?
Gallup
M44
O48
Nate: can you use the same methodology to dissect the Gallup tracking polls?
And can you make this a permanent part of your website - maybe underneath your other graphs?
Now the GOP shock troops are revved up that carried OH for Dubya last time (along with Diebold help perhaps).
This time with a Democratic SoS.
Mike- Thanks for the info.
Obama back below 50.
Look for more "McGains" over the weekend until this race is all down to the wire again!
Nate,
Never mention Intratrade in a post. It's a bunch of people that would gamble on the color of the sky tomorrow.
We can discuss the polls all we want, but I think we should wait til Monday before we say if McCain gets a bounce or not.
After one day.
CBS-TIE
RAS- O+2
GAL- 0+4
All down from 5-9 [or was it 8] this past week.
VC-
It was 49/42 yesterday.
CBS is been proven as garbage. Ofcourse once again which everybody ignores state polls matter. It's where your support is more than the absolute number.
CTSTW-
It was eight in CBS/NYT and in Gallup. Five (w/ leaners in Rass).
Take the weekend off, go play with the lids, clean the garage.
The polls don't mean crap until mid-week next week at the earliest.
Could you do something similar for the gallup tracking?
This conevntion bounce likely hasn't materialized fully yet - Obama's bounce took a few days to materialize too.
But the number to watch is McCain's number, currently 44% with Gallup and 46% with Rasmussen. The height of the convention bounce will represent the ceiling of support each candidate can represent. Obama was able to get over 50% in both, so if McCain can't crack 50% in the next few days, their campaign is in big trouble.
"I am trying to get someone to explain to me how you run for VP without doing national interviews or press conferences."
It's very simple. They have no good options, because she's simply the worst candidate to try to run for higher office in living memory.
She's unqualified, unprepared and has a cloud of scandals buzzing around her. If they put her out there and she messes up, the spell that the GOP has carefully cast on half the electorate will disappear.
Lincoln said: "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt." That's the GOP strategy for Sarah Palin.
The better question is: How can anyone seriously believe that McCain puts "country first" or that he's a "patriot" when he wants to put someone a hair away from the presidency so corrupt and so incapable that he doesn't trust her to hold a press conference?
It's astounding.
Speaking of the weekend...
Hey VC-
What's the Hanna forecast for the Richmond area?
I tend to agree with the commentor that Nate is shifting the data in all ways Obama. What strikes me is the latest "news" that McCain outdrew Obama for the TV audience, and yesterday's news that Palin drew nearly the same number of viewers as Obama did with just 60% of BO's coverage.
The love affair with BO over the past nine months has clouded all his supporters judgments and I think it is showing up here. I hope not because an honest look at numbers a la Baseball Prospectus is much needed in polling.
Unfortunately, I expect to find out polling is really just crap with its smooting techniques, voters/non-voter screens, party wieghtings, etc.
sorry guys but this is off topic although related to the competence issue. How is it that on the most important night of the Republican Convention the first minutes of the speech had him standing in front of a mansion that turned out to be a school in California which shares the Reed name with Walter Reed hospital. Now the cmapaign is pointing fingers at each other. This things matter only because as with the vetting it just gives you a sense of a candidate that is not a good manager and the group is just not up to speed. God.
Brian - You're welcome. SurveyUSA did a poll in the Missouri 9th CD, a lily-white district represented by Kenny Hulshof (now running for Governor.) The biggest takeaway I got from it was that voters with a moderate ideology have a more favorable opinion of Obama than McCain, but voters have a more favorable view of McCain than Obama. This fascinates me to no end because I then draw the conclusion that ideology and issues are secondary in importance to liking the candidate.
And thank you all so very much for getting back to me with an answer on the time of the Gallup release. Because why inform when you can have a screaming match from each other's 40 yard line? ;-)
Gallup was at about the same as Rasmussen last night, perhaps slightly better for Obama. That's fantastic news.
I predicted yesterday that today would be
Ras O48 M47
Gallup O48 M45
I thought Palin would deliver a bigger night for McCain in terms of the McCain numbers; apparently she didn't because the McCain numbers, even on a single night, have a ceiling of about 48. That's very significant, I wonder what VaCon for instance thinks of that. Obama had many many nights of about 52. Can it be that McCain caps at 48, Obama at 52, and that's the real two-party spread?
I think the Gallup numbers are HUGE.
McCain still can't crack above 44%.
I bet they're pissing their pants over at one of the dozen McMansions.
"Rasmussen says Palin is now more popular than Obama or McCain."
This is why this country is in serious trouble. If people are serious about voting for McCain because of the "Reality TV like" star factor that Palin has brought in over the past week then folks we are in serious trouble.
So based on ONE speech that was written for her she is now more popular than McCain & Obama. You know how stupid that is to people who can actually think and decide on issues they want to support.
If McCain wins because of this "it girl" frenzy...then the country is heading down a very dangerous path.
You're telling me that people who are paying $3.50/gallon and up for gas, loosing their jobs, and having their kids sent off to war are just going to forget all that because they are being wowed by a new face that plays up to the "Reality TV/American Idol/TMZ crowd? Is this really going to work for 2 more months? For our future as a country lets hope not.
Very interesting. Interesting that tomorrows polls will drop a slight McCain edge for well, we don't quite know yet. But if its anything other than a McCain edge, then watch for some poor headlines for McCain. Interesting we have two days of McCain lead and the rest is all Obama lead. I think the race is something like a 3-4 point lead on Rasmussen averages. Sounds like about right, esp comnsidering Ras's slightly more conservative lean.
Jason: You saved me the trouble. Thanks.
This election is truly a referendum on the intelligence of Americans. Let's hope we don't fail.
One of the things I like best about the Ras numbers is the question of whether Obama or Palin is more qualified to be president. Even split, half think the Vice Presidential nominee on the Repub ticket is more qualified than the Dem presidential nominee. Cannot be good for Obama. If he can only compare mediocre to Palin, how can he ever measure up to a McCain. He is just not ready to lead.
I will be very interested in your method of solving N equations in N+2 unknowns.
Yep, Gallup numbers are big, but they don't have McCain's speech in them.
Tomorrow's numbers are the crucial ones. Traditionally, that would be the height of the bounce- might be Sunday this time because they cut so much on Monday. If they can't get the lead with Gallup, they'd better start praying for a miracle.
Tough break for Obama - no longer is his speech the most watched convention speech ever, McCain's is.
Presidential candidate John McCain's acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention drew more television viewers than his rival Barack Obama attracted at the Democratic party's event last week, according to preliminary ratings from Nielsen Media Research.
Across all broadcast networks Thursday, Sen. McCain’s speech ended the night with a 4.8 rating/7 share, compared to Sen. Obama’s 4.3/7 average, according to overnight numbers from metered households in 55 U.S. markets measured by Nielsen. These ratings are preliminary, however, and are subject to change.
NBC’s coverage of Sen. McCain’s speech started directly at the tail end of the opening game of NFL season, with the speech pulling in a 6.3 rating/10 share, topping Sen. Obama’s speech last week by 26%. That lead-in may have boosted audiences who last night turned out in droves to watch Republican VP candidate Sarah Palin introduce herself to the country.
ABC’s showing of the McCain speech averaged a 4.5/7, down 2% from the same night of the Democratic convention last week, while CBS’ coverage took in a 3.4/5, an increase of 3%.
Jeremy-
To be fair, McCain had a string of 44-45-45-46-44 between the 22rd and 26th of August.
" "Rasmussen says Palin is now more popular than Obama or McCain.""
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAH!
I definitely agree. I can't believe that people thin Palin is so great.
What a mind fuck.
But you know what? This country has lost so much of its creativity and brilliance. Hardly any great music is put forth by record companies, hardly any great books or movies....
The dumbing down of America is completed with the thought, "Sarah Palin has made a great and historic speech."
IDIOTS!!
The Bradley effect? Pfft! maybe a little but certinaly not enough to swing an election in 2008.
How about the Moron Effect? That will do the trick I'm sure. That is why I am so worried.
WOW
First, Sarah Palin’s approval rating…
RATING Aug 9-12 Aug 30 – Sep 2
Positive 80.2% 81.6%
Negative 13.2% 13.1%
Neutral 6.4% 5.4%
Who? 0.1% 0.0%
http://www.anchoragepress.com/site/basicarticle.asp?ID=823
Nate, could you make your algorithm's estimation of the Gallup dailies available on this site? I would love to be able to follow the bumps and such myself, and I think it would be a great service to those of us who are trying to debunk the myth of the tracker's responsiveness to daily events. Plus it would surely piss the Gallup people off.
Nate, do you incorporate Gallup weekly numbers into your Gallup algorithm? (You can use for better effect both raw weekly numbers and weekly gender numbers).
FWIW, I think your Gallup numbers are very likely.
The race is very very close. And will be close.
But we must see the state poll, because they´re more important.
The RCP final average in 2004 was Bush 48.9%, Kerry 47,4%. The final result was Bush 50, 7%, Kerry 48,5%.
The two canidates with leaners bounced 1,5 % points.
If Obama is leaning by 2 or 3 points he probably win the popular vote, but the electoral college continues close.
If Obama leads by 3 or 4 he´ll win the election.
But i think the day before the election the ressult are a statistical tie.
Thank you for taking over this - now I can throw away my spreadsheet. Most of the commenters yesterday may have been seeing simliar things, but I've seen a bunch of different calculations on other websites. Starting from back in August where there are 3 consistent days of polling as a baseline, I actually show Ras Obama +4, Gallup Obama +1 overnight, which makes both Intrade movements this morning mystifying.
I think Nate's correct to think it'll be back to Obama with a slight lead -- within the margin of error -- by next week.
Given the economic situation, this is nearly bizarre. Unemployment is now 1% higher than it was in March. That has been a VERY reliable indicator ever since 1948. Obama ought to be ahead by 10-15% by now, but in fact the race is tied.
Part of it can certainly be tied to Obama being black. If he were a white candidate, he'd be crushing McCain in places like West Virginia, Missouri, and Virginia.
But I think it goes beyond race. This shows that the Obama campaign did a poor job of pivoting from the primaries into the general election. He spent June through August acting as if he'd already won the race.
McCain, on the other hand, went and hired a barracuda of a campaign manager, who brought the race back to a tie. I still think Obama's going to win it, but it's just CRAZY for the race to be this close.
With the new Gallup numbers, it sort of looks like there are simultaneous bounces going on. Sorta.
With Obama going up quickly, but dropping slowly. Now I bet McCain will go up and drop slowly at the same rate.
My prediction for tomorrow:
Obama 47
McCain 45
Then expect both to slowly drop down to the standard:
Obama: 44-48
McCain 41-44
I'm sure lots of people watched and said "NOW I KNOW WHO I'LL VOTE FOR!!!!"--and then the number of undecideds will tick up again. Until the debates, when people will see them together and can make some 1 on 1 comparisons.
Yes? No? Maybe? Crazy?
I do think it's telling that it doesn't seem that McCain actually led last night in either tracking poll, and that Obama seems to be staying in the 48% range. Yesterday was one of the best news days for McCain yet in this campaign, with both Palin's speech and the positive media reaction to it (even people who didn't watch the speech itself probably saw favorable news coverage of it).
By contrast, the coverage of his own speech has been much more muted. A lot of people may have watched it, but it's not clear to me that he did much to change anyone's mind. The next few days will be interesting to watch. If McCain does build up to a lead in the tracking polls, then the election will be pretty close, I suspect, but if he's still behind, then it's hard to know what he can do to win.
Gallup's poll is interesting. Seems a similar pattern, with slightly adjusted numbers, to Ras. feels like both polls had Obama up a fair bit on Monday, and some of the dip has the result coming out of the tracking.
I think in Gallup numbers, looking at the patterns, it might well settle down at roughly Obama 48 McCain 44. (actually pretty much were it was before Obama went on holiday if I remember correctly.) Roll on the debates!
Humanist,
I predicted about the same as you in the trackers and the apparent McCain ceiling is the real thing that consistently sticks out.
Despite the historic nature of the primaries and this election and all of the personal/sociological issues swirling around, the convention bounces were pretty standard so far. i.e. nothing historical.
I predict that in a week or two the state and national polling will settle into a steady state very similar to what we saw pre-convention. Obama up consistently by 2-4, but with both candidates polling higher as I's and undecideds move more firmly to their candidate of choice.
Of course, this is barring any major developments. On that front it is far more likely for a Palin scandal/gaffe to impact the numbers in favor of Obama. However, I wouldn't bet on this happening.
I still think that people are underestimating the Palin speech backlash. Democrats have a significant voter/party id advantage. A fire up the base/culture wars speech should just give more firm preferences. From the looks of it, the major movement is with white people who attend church monthly but not weekly. I'd argue that these people agree with McCain but Palin's views are too extreme.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/110053/Religion-Remains-Major-Dividing-Factor-Among-White-Voters.aspx
"How about the Moron Effect? That will do the trick I'm sure. That is why I am so worried."
Just look at the GOP people here. Look at their attitudes.
They don't give a shit about the country. They just care about power. In another thread our good friend geoff here all but admitted it.
What happened to "country first"?
What happened to patriotism?
How can a nation elect a VP to a half-dead guy who won't even hold a press conference?
It's outrageous, but Americans care more about mooseburgers.
Like all empires, our collapse will be well-earned.
LAT... I ADORE that school story. Apparently the backdrop was supposed to be Walter Reed Army Hospital, and instead they got Walter Reed Middle School. You just can't make this stuff up.
Then... telling us that we can learn all we need to know about Palin from ads and speeches.. "no questions please!"
And they want to run the country.
It reminds me of one of my favorite Seinfeld episodes where George (always dodging examination of his employment status) wants Jerry to answer calls by posing as his boss. "So what do you do for my company?" Jerry asks. "I'm your... your latex salesman," George says. Moments later when George is in the bathroom, the phone rings and he rushes out, pants around his ankles, and sprawls headlong. Jerry looks down at his friend writhing on the floor and says sadly... "And you want to be my latex salesman."
I paraphrase what I said on the previous thread,
After 2 days of nothing but personal attacks on Obama and the McCain Media fawning over Princess Superstar, he better hope nobody thought his acceptance speech sucked balls. He desperately needs a significant bounce out of this convention, or this thing is over.
Oh, but wait! Obama is down on Intrade. NOOOOOOOO!!!
Geoff-
Comparisions between the ratings of the speeches can be explained by the same phenomenon that explains who watches what news channel. Dems and Inds will watch anything, but GOPs prefer FNC by a wide margin. Translated into this context, Dems and inds (including many on this page who will not vote for McCain) watched both the speechs because they are both important political events, but would most GOPs watch Obama's speech? If they chose their political events in the same way they choose their news channels, the evidence would suggest no.
With the new Gallup numbers, it sort of looks like there are simultaneous bounces going on. Sorta.
What new Gallup numbers? I haven't seen any new Gallup numbers.
On the Palin more popular than Obama thing- I think that is a lot because she is the new kid on the block- Rookie popularity. (Think Obama after Iowa)! I think her popularity MAY well dip given a few weeks.
This what Gallup says about the tracking poll it released today:
"Results, based on interviewing conducted Sept. 2-4, include just one day of interviewing conducted after Wednesday night's widely viewed acceptance speech by McCain's vice presidential running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. Most interviewing Thursday night was conducted before McCain's acceptance speech, so Gallup Poll Daily tracking results will start to reflect its impact in Saturday's report. The full impact of the GOP convention on voter preferences will not be known until Monday's report, the first in which all interviews will have been conducted following the convention's conclusion."
Obviously, McCain-Palin will be UP over Obama come Monday - the question is, how much?
Rhys said...
"Let's see what she does when she does an actual interview or 3."
These will all be staged and scripted.
Sarah Palin is the biggest fraud candidate ever foisted on the American public. She is a complete creation of the GOP political machine and the unwillingness of the media to do their jobs.
This is the ultimate insult to the intelligence of the American people, and its ultimate test as well.
Agreed. It's funny how during the primary season Bill was perceived as talking about Obama as a "fairy tale". Obama has earned it through sweat equity and scrutiny for a while now. At this point, I'd said he's proven to all, but those that would never be on board or aren't paying attention, whereas Palin really is a fairytale. What's most unfortunate about all of this is MCCain had about 10 great choices to choose from that are highly qualified and Female, problem is they're all pro-choice. So, instead he picks someone entirely unqualified, but through smoke and mirrors can create false perceptions. You know what, Mayor of a town of 5000-8000 does not qualify someone to run a country. As for being Governor of Alaska, that 18 months on the job probably prepares you less than if you were Governor of any other state in the country. Why? Big Oil revenues and a total of 600,000 people make it function wholly differently than just about anywhere else in the world. I'd say being CEO of HP or EBay is probably better prep for running the country. It's really ridiculous. I wish Tim Rusert could sit down with her for one hour. Oh, and a hockey mom, she has one older son right. That's demographic BS if I've ever heard it, unless her 3 daughters play hockey. I think the Republican party thinks the government is not important and should be as small as possible, so being qualified is a relative term and their threshold is extremely low.
Nate,
Are you including Rasmussen's change in party id that took place on 9/01 into account when doing the daily calculations?
Don't get too excited, or despairing, until the end of next week. These conventions bounces and Palin hate/euphoria need to work their way through the polls.
I've agreed that Obama needed to ignore Palin and go after McCain and mostly still do.
But SOMEONE has to make an issue out of this refusal to meet with the media. She's a f*cking coward pretending to be a fighter and people need to be told.
Good point Diego. That account for about a two point Obama hit. Kinda interesting that a repub pollster did this right at the bounce, isn't it?
The numbers return to the normal situation.
The best number for Obama is 50-51% and the best for McCain is 47-48%.
McCain will be take 49% or 50% if he want a chance. His numbers are the same as Kerry in 2004.
This obsession with national polls is stupid. State polls matter. I showed the stupifity of national polls last week. It matters where your support is.
Look at 2000 50.1/49.9 election. If you look ate the margins in states if you change 50,000 votes nationally out of 100million it could have been close to 320 EC votes for either candidate.
They're gonna roll Palin out on Sean Hannity, Rush Limbaugh, and Brit Hume, and claim she's "met with the media" and be done with it.
Eric: Yes, thanks.
It's sad, isn't it, when we might have to rely for our ultimate salvation on Jon Stewart and the National Enquirer.
Someone needs to stick a pin in this phony harpy's balloon, that's for sure.
Please, the preseidential election is McCain-Obama no Obama-Palin.
McCain is the president candidate.
Hillary is coming!!!
Hillary is coming!!!
Hillary is coming!!!
Hillary is coming!!!
...to crush Palin like the proverbial grape that she is. It's her job to remain alpha female.
Kill Bill!
Kill Hill!
Noone is better with blood in the water, and Palin has cuts all over her.
"Palin More Popular Than McCain or Obama" - Rasrepublican
Why would anyone believe any of the subjective weasel words on Rasmussen? I mean come on people, he has the open ads pumping McCain and Newt Frikkin' Gingrich right there.
Of course more people have a "positive opinion" of Palin. That's just a reflection of her lightweight fluff status. I thought she seemed okay on a personal level myself, until that evil speech. And I have no patience for science denial.
Rasmussen's NUMBERS mean something. He's openly admitted that he stacks Republican as much as he dares this year, so if you're a Republican who can't win on Rasmussen, brother, you can't win anywhere.
mason, I think your explanation of the ratings is correct. Democrats are more likely to be political junkies than Republicans are, and watch everything. I mean, I stuck through that truly awful McCain speech last night, manfully resisting the nearly overpowering urge to flip to a Law & Order re-run ...
Good God, even for McCain that was a terrible speech. It started out okay, but when he went over the hills and through the woods to take us to the Hanoi Hilton, I almost felt sorry for the old coot. He gets a sort of whining and pleading tone in his voice that tells you it's all over.
I am surprised that he did the P.O.W. shtick again. He's becoming a self-parody, and that's a problem.
Brad -- I've detested Hillary for over a decade.
Her speech last week only moved me from utter detestation to mild destation with a hint of appreciation.
If she comes out and really and truly takes this phony coward of a governor down a few notches, she'll have my vote for president in 2016.
Add to that today's shitty job numbers.
I appreciate the job Nate does. This website is amazing to me.
The CBS polls are scaring me right now. Are they really tied, Obama/McCain?
"McCain, on the other hand, went and hired a barracuda of a campaign manager, who brought the race back to a tie. I still think Obama's going to win it, but it's just CRAZY for the race to be this close."
Yeah. Will Obama should totally be winning with 370 EVs instead of just 310. Obviously total incompetence on the Democrats' part.
I am with you Rhys, I could not vote for Bill or Hill, or even Chelsea right now. If Hill and Bill take on the easy job of killling Palin, they have my vote forever.
You should have put Hillary on the ticket, morons.
"Why is Sarah Palin afraid to hold a press conference, so she can answer questions from the people she wants to lead?"
Simple. Sarah Palin isn't running to lead the mainstream media (which is who press conferences are help for.)
She is speaking to, and will continue to speak to, the people, not the press.
"There won't be a Bradley effect among voters under 35, except perhaps in states that are prohibitively red anyways."
I have to disagree. In those RED states being ignorant (when you are) is a badge of honor. Those people don't lie about not voting for a black man because he's black. They'll tell you. The Bradley effect is more likely to be seen in more "progressive" states where if you are a racist you are ridiculed by your neighbors. See the NH primary for a keen example. (I'm from NH and that was a shitty night). When Nate was figuring out the wighting for each poll it showed that Obamam actually outperformed the polling numbers in most cases.
Does anyone know if the campaigns do internal polling with sample sizes as big or bigger than the polling organaizations and just keep the numbers to themselves. I assume they do, but I don't know much about the mechanics of that kind of stuff within a campaign.
It's sad, isn't it, when we might have to rely for our ultimate salvation on Jon Stewart and the National Enquirer.
Jon Stewart preaches to the choir. The National Enquirer is much more important.
Can we really be that stupid to vote in a ticket with a number two that appears set to hide till polling day?
Can we really be that stupid to allow a VP candidate to not face up to media scrutiny?
Can we really be that stupid to allow Patriotism to be defined in such a manner that any disagreement we may have with the last eight years puts you on the "lunatic Liberal fringe" and being labelled as unpatriotic or worse?
Can we really be that stupid to vote against our own economic interests yet again?
Can we really be that stupid to believe that the only party capable of fixing the travesty of the last eight years is the party that created it?
Yes..we...can
What a sad and sorry excuse for a country.
"You should have put Hillary on the ticket, morons."
Are you Sarah Palin's downy baby?
Do you honestly believe that would have been a good idea for the election and the country?
She is speaking to, and will continue to speak to, the people, not the press.
The press are people, too. People with questions.
transparency and ethic and reforming maverickness in all their glory. At least the Alaskan press (not cowed yet by McCain and the RNC) are doing their job.
I guess they are just sexist.
http://www.adn.com/opinion/story/516641.html
Sarah Palin will end up as the anti-Hillary once she becomes a known commodity. She will have a super devoted core of support, but her negatives will be astonishingly high - people will either love her or loathe even seeing her face.
If McCain can't even get a lead in the trackers from his convention, then he is in deep trouble.
I think the expectation is that McCain will lead this weekend. If he doesn't, I'm not sure he can get this one back.
"You should have put Hillary on the ticket, morons."
They never would have chosen Palin if he had. You should know that. But frankly, if they do their jobs right, Palin is of more use to Obama than Hillary would be on the ticket.
--
You know, VC, a couple of days ago when the scandals about Palin were breaking, you were distraught. You started panicking and getting upset.
And a bunch of people here said they gave you credit for honesty and for being fair and so forth.
You're blowing it with these sorts of comments.
Enjoy your bounce, because if and when it fades, I plan to rub your nose in it every day.
You are the perfect example of what candidates like Sarah Palin do to people.
Palin is now more popular than McCain, Obama or Biden. She has extremely high favourables and relatively low unfavourable according to Rasmussen.
This is AFTER the media had a field day attacking her on everything from her baby son Trig, the fact that she's a mom, that she was a small-town mayor, etc..
So... still feel that choosing Palin was a bad choice eh? Based on the numbers of course.
I do believe I said something earlier about a backlash against the media.. this may be it.
You should have put Hillary on the ticket, morons.
If Hillary hadn't so much as demanded the job at the end of the primaries, I'd agree. Given how she and her supporters handled it, Obama was prevented from picking her. He'd have looked henpecked and weak, and that would have killed him.
"Do you honestly believe that would have been a good idea for the election and the country?"
He doesn't care about the country. None of the Palin fans do.
They only care about their 'culture war' and holding on to power.
Rhys-
I understand what the strategy is with Palin now. Shes 1) a chwey toy for the nuts, 2) bait for Obama and Biden to distract them.
I think shes a nut, but she can play both those roles rather nicely. The scandals didn't blow up like I thought they would, and about 70% of them turned out to be rumors.
Oh, role #3 is Hatchet Bitch.
Best guess is we hold at around these numbers until September 26th, the first debate. Sounds like, we're probably around 47% Obama, 46% McCain. What will be real interesting is to see how the state polling has changed.
Sarah Palin will end up as the anti-Hillary once she becomes a known commodity.
Yikes! We'd better keep them out of the same room. If they shake hands, we might have an E=mcc situation.
VC-
I am no Hillary fan, but I wanted her on the ticket since before the primaries ended. After PA Obama should have offered it to her and saved the party, and himself, a whole lot of trouble.
I think the BS about her being a drag, etc. is grossly overthought. Palin proves most Americans pay little or no attention.
Regarding yesterday's tv ratings:
the key reason they were larger than Obama's was that republicans tuned in. Everything else was almost constant. Fox news went from being near the bottom of all the channels to the undisputed leader.
Palin apparently really woke republicans.
Virginia Conservative said...
You should have put Hillary on the ticket, morons.
Obama-Hillary would have been a really bad idea. The media discussion would be entirely on where they differ, and did she just contradict him when she said this? Not to mention having somebody so divisive on the ticket isn't good for a national unity message. Cf. Palin, Sarah.
They only care about their 'culture war' and holding on to power.
They think it's vital for the country. I very, very strongly disagree with them, but to say they don't care about the country is just ludicrous. Quit drinking the kool-aid.
soooo
where's the explaination for the intrade numbers..
I thought he was going to get into that a bit more with his post.
"Can we really be that stupid to vote in a ticket with a number two that appears set to hide till polling day?"
YES WE CAN!
"Can we really be that stupid to allow a VP candidate to not face up to media scrutiny?"
YES WE CAN!
"Can we really be that stupid to allow Patriotism to be defined in such a manner that any disagreement we may have with the last eight years puts you on the "lunatic Liberal fringe" and being labelled as unpatriotic or worse?"
YES WE CAN!
"Can we really be that stupid to vote against our own economic interests yet again?"
YES WE CAN!
"Can we really be that stupid to believe that the only party capable of fixing the travesty of the last eight years is the party that created it?"
YES WE CAN!
"What a sad and sorry excuse for a country."
Yes, we are. :(
Eric-
We will hold close to these, but McCain will not be above his 45% ceiling and BO has firmed up with PUMAs and independents.
Obama 47-8%
McCain 43-5%
until debate one.
I agree, Hillary will be best candidate but it´s over.
On the other hands, please i´m not a liberal i hate liberals but is obvious that a McCain administration is very same as the Bush administration.
McCain isn´t stupid, he will never said "My policies are the same as Bush" but if you think it will be the continuation of Bush policies in many issues.
It´s obvious that Obama is the change, but he´s more liberal for the majority of Americans.
The Gallup weekly crosstabs allow for some insight in the composition of Obama's convention bounce.
http://www.gallup.com/tag/Election%2bTrends%2bby%2bGroup.aspx
Overall, from Aug 18-24 to Auf 25-31 he gained 3 pts (45 zo 48), while McCain lost 3 pts (45 to 42) in the weekly Gallup aggregate. The August 25-31 period included 2 poor pre-convention days for Obama, and 2 days following the Palin announcement, so it should reflect more of a 'bounce average' than the bounce peak.
Essentially, Obama's convention bounce has come from the following demographics:
- Democrats (up from 78-14 to 85-9). there is hardly movement among independents (43-42 to 44-41) and Repubs (7-87 to 8-99), which may to some extent reflect initial effects of the Palin announcement.
More specifically, Obama has mostly gained amomg conservative Dems (from 63-26 to 77-15), and just slightly from moderate and liberal Dems, which already had been relatively firmly at his side.
- Voters over 50: There has been an 8 pt shift (from 40-47 to 44-43) among voters over 65 years old, and a 7 pr shift (from 44-44 to 49-42) in the 50-64 age group. In the 30-49 age group, the shift was only 4 pt (45-46 to 48-45), while there was no change for voters below 30.
- Non-graduates: While college and postgraduates hardly moved, there was a 12 pt shift for voters with 'some college' (42-47 to 49-42), and a 5 pt shift for 'high shool or less' (42-45 to 45-43).
- Non-Blacks: Obama gained net 5 pt from whites (37-52 to 40-50) and 13 pt from Hispanics (58-31 to 64-24). The latter gain, however, should not be over-interpreted, as the Hispanic vote is traditionally showing strong fluctuations in the Gallop weekly aggregates, from as low as 54% for Obama (Aug 4-10) up to 68% (July 21-28). Not surprisingly, Blacks did hardly move, as being already firmly on Obama's side.
Gender did not make a difference (for both sexes, Obama gained net 6 points), nor did church attendance.
In short, it appears that the bounce has mainly come from getting Clinton (& Reagan?) Democrats back into Obama's column, where many of them already had been during late June, early July.
What is interesting is a regional analysis: The bounce has been strongest in the Midwest (from 44-45 to 50-40) and in the South (from 39 -51 to 44 - 48), while hardly appearing in the East (52-37 to 54-37) and the West (48-43 to 49-42). Moreover, it has been strongest in "Red States" (from 39-51 to 43-47), while there was only minor movement in "Purple States" (from 46-44 to 48 -44) and "Blue States" (53-37 to 55-36). Looking at these regional patterns, OH and CO will probably continue to be nail-biters, while states like FL, NC, and in particular parts of the "red mid-west" (MT, ND, IN) should be extremely interesting to be watched the next weeks (provided some of the Dem convention bounce can be sustained).
Frank from Germany
Eric said...
Does anyone know if the campaigns do internal polling with sample sizes as big or bigger than the polling organaizations and just keep the numbers to themselves. I assume they do, but I don't know much about the mechanics of that kind of stuff within a campaign.
---------------
Eric, they do and they do alot. They also target key swing districts in states and key swing voters. They do focus groups using state of the art marketing tools to test messages and see where they and their opponent are strong or weak.
This is where the money advantages come in along with paid staff and ground game investments.
You can bet that Obama has been investing much more money in these areas than any Dem in history. His ad spending has pretty average so unless he is stashing his campaign contributions in the Caymans, he's spending on things like this.
Leaks from the McCain campaign clearly show that it was their internal polling and focus group studies that forced the Palin panic pick.
I can't wait to see the next CO poll. Any idea when the next one will occur? This state will decide the general election.
"They think it's vital for the country. I very, very strongly disagree with them, but to say they don't care about the country is just ludicrous. Quit drinking the kool-aid."
Bullshit.
Did you catch Rove admitting why Palin was chosen?
Did you see McCain's campaign manager say the election 'wasn't about issues?'
They don't even try to hide it any more. It is a raw, naked power grab.
Diogo-
Being after football was worth 5-8 million eyebals. That is what put McCain over.
"2) bait for Obama and Biden to distract them."
Except that Obama is dealing with her by having Clinton and Sebelius go on the stump. That frees up Obama and Biden to stick to McCain.
The thing about having Palin hide isn't that it upsets the press, it's that it makes it very hard for her to win over moderates. If all you're doing is reading speeches with no questions to very safe audiences, it's much harder to have any sort of impact.
Oh, and by the way, Hillary IS going to be on the ticket in a way. Remember when she kept promising to work her heart out for Obama? Well, just wait.
Obama's going to be sending her out as a surrogate, and I predict that by the time it's all over with, the media will be talking about Hillary Clinton having upstaged Joe Biden in the attack dog role.
Clinton is going to eat Sarah Palin for lunch and shit her out before dinner. Just wait until Clinton starts in on the choice issue. Sarah Palin gave Obama an excuse to bring Hillary back on board.
If that happens like I think it'll happen, Hillary will bring a much-needed testosterone injection. That, more than anything else, is going to turn it around.
Eric said...
Best guess is we hold at around these numbers until September 26th, the first debate. Sounds like, we're probably around 47% Obama, 46% McCain. What will be real interesting is to see how the state polling has changed.
That would assume that the bounce gets bigger and somehow becomes permanent. Right now, Obama holds a 4% lead in Gallup, and it should get larger late next week, as the Republican bounce fades.
I'm sure Rasmussen will at some point decide that we're 80% Republican 10% Democrat 10% Independent to keep the race close, but don't believe it. The real question is what McCain's upside is. The polls in the next couple of days will tell us. He doesn't need to hold the lead, he just needs to *get* the lead.
Good Post Frank.
Interesting breakdown, Nate.
I find the numbers fascinating, because even with the media gush job on the pitbull with lipstick (and nice legs at the risk of stating the obvious), McCain can't get above 46 in any poll (his high water mark reached several times the past 3 months) and Barack doesn't go below 48%. Break it down and Barack seems to have a floor of 47% and McCain a ceiling of 46%, and the average seems to be pretty much where Gallup has it, 48-44. This is NOT good news for McCain Co.
Will he get a bounce from his speech? Even his apologists were underwhelmed, so maybe it closes to 47-46, and the more republican leaning rasmussen ties it up...
Ultimately, I think the media gets back in the batter's box from the spitball brushback "sexism" pitches about Palin (How DARE you ask about troopergate, secessionist parties, creationism, making rape victims give birth, firing librarians, main "experience" being mayor of a town of 5000 people, main foreign policy, going to 4th tier schools in Hawaii and Idaho, you sexist pigs???). The GOP is hiding her out in Alaska for the next 7 days, to prep her for actually answering a question or two...we'll see if Clarence Thomas in heels can handle it.
I have predicted all along that, a week after the two conventions, the nationals will look about the same as they did going in,Obama up 3-4 points, which, since Rasmussen and Gallup both lean GOP in likely voter models, probably means about 5-6...
Of course, as we all know, and as this site is called, it is all about EVs, and in that regard, Obama looks great...
Nice post Frank from Germany!
Quick comment on the Bradley effect. I think it might still exist somewhere. I think its one of the things that makes the polls quite tough to take toooo seriously right now. BUT on the other hand, I think you might well get A LOT of youth vote in the election, compared to the past. I think Obama has mobilised the youth vote very well when he has needed to. I think the two factors might balance each other out in the end.
The self-centered speech will cost him votes. It was a brutish attempt to change the dialog from issues, which the GOP loses on every single one, to caricature. That is talk about what McPOW wants to be but isn't.
The youth vote liked Obama when they thought he was new and exciting and fresh.
Since he has spent the last four months turning himself into a conventional politician, they won't be enthused like they were in the primaries and revert to their lazy, unmotivated selves.
"Palin More Popular Than McCain or Obama"
This is the Vanna White complex. You can love that which you know nothing about, and can only see from a distant perspective.
It's like going to a bar, seeing a hot woman that you are very attracted to. At this point, you don't know if this person is your future soul-mate, or a psycho hose beast seeking blood.
As more and more information trickles out about Sarah Palin, her numbers will alter dramatically. So far, the low-info majority only know:
1) Hot Woman.
2) 5 Kids, one with Down Syndrome.
3) Son in Military.
4) From Alaska.
5) Some experience but not tons.
Those are mostly all positive things or neutral. That list will grow, and the chance of any one individual disagreeing with anything they know about her will only grow with the list. It's the Vanna White complex - if all she does is stand there and turn over letters, who could possibly think poorly of her?
We need more state polling before I get the wram fuzzies again. CO, FL, MI, IN, OH, NM please!!!!!
Hey Nate.
If you look at your chart, Obama has won every day, except 2.
That means Obama is carrying this thing, and McCain is just a bystander (including with Palin, until proven otherwise).
Don't be suprised if Obama is back up 6-10 points next week.
VC was right, that´s the problem with the democrats.
In the primaries will be more leftist and in the general election they turned to the centre and this lost credibility.
Potential Nielsen BS:
Couple of posters have come out crowing about McCain "beating" Obama in the Nielsens.
Looking at the BROADCAST networks, that's true -
Obama: 4.1/7 for NBC, 4.0/6 for ABC, and 3.2/5 for CBS (final)
vs.
McCain: 6.3/10 for NBC, 4.5/7 for ABC, 3.4/5 for CBS (preliminary)
Nielsen ratings don't give the actual numbers of viewers, instead they report a percentage of households that were watching and the percentage of households with a TV on that moment that were watching. As a comparison, the Olympic Opening Ceremonies (often used as a benchmark for Obama's speech, earned a 21.5/37.
Looking at the broadcast networks, Obama had a total share 11.4/18. That's barely half of the Olympic number (which we know Obama beat). That means that probably about half (or slightly more of the people who watched Obama's speech watched it on cable (numbers that I haven't seen reported for McCain's speech yet).
Is it possible that McCain's viewers watch the speech in different ways than Obama's viewers? I think it's likely given that (1) McCain's viewers are probably older and more inclined to watch Broadcast TV rather than cable TV and (2) NBC was showing NFL, and many football viewers interested in the speech probably just stayed on NBC instead of switching to their cable network of choice.
Still a very good number (surprisingly good) for McCain, and he could very well still beat or rival Obama's numbers. But lets hold off on the boasting for a bit.
Vanna White is right, the problem is they are going to try to make her into Vanna and just send her to fundraisers.
Astounding. The press needs to be very insulted. KILL MSM!!!!
I may be showing my age, but very few knew Sarah Palin existed six days ago. Claiming she's ducking press conferences is pure hackery and reflects poorly on those making the acusations.
A quick observation on Palin's popularity numbers:
There's no doubt of Palin's personal appeal, nor of the intense interest the public has in her. But her personal appeal is not always translating into support for the Republican ticket.
I know this because I read a number of blogs and e-mail lists that are predominately populated by mothers and professional women, and the Palin phenomenon has penetrated all of them. Women everywhere are talking about her, and there's always a full distribution of reactions along the political curve. But one thing I've noticed is that an increasing number of women who initially swoon over Palin ('I love her soooo much!!')then follow up with something like 'of course, I wouldn't vote for her, because of (insert evil Republican position on women's issue).'. Seeing more and more of this over the last 24-48 hours.
So there are probably plenty of women on whom Palin's charisma works (hence the Rasmussen popularity result) but that end up voting their heads, not their hearts.
Of course, there may also be some reverse-Bradley effect at work.
Will be interesting to watch.
RASMUSSEN:
of course palin is more popular than obama now. the last who gets aired prime time for 2 hours + 1 full day of comment is the best remembered. Primaries over it's up to ads. It's not about the message, it's about the coverage.
VC -
I dont know whether or not the rest of the youth vote will turn out but being among them I know several in NoVA who plan to :)
Scott Rasmussen is becoming evil. Increasing repubs in his party ID, and now this. Keep it up Scotty, soon you will lose all street cred :)
Drudge is turning tail for McCan't too. His posts since the start of the dem convention clearly show bias.
I see that the latest North Dakota poll put Obama ahead there. If that's true, it's hard to imagine him losing the election. But I tend to think it's an anomaly and that N.D. will win up red.
I think Obama's going to win Florida. The Palin selection is going to play very badly with the Jews in South Florida, who had been wavering. Even the people at Commentary magazine don't seem to like it too much, and that's a group of people who didn't object when Lieberman's friend the Christian minister said that Hitler was God's way of getting the Jews to move to Israel.
As much as I get pissed off at the Democratic Party's many faults, I remain fairly optimistic that Obama will be elected. I just think it ought to be a bigger victory, that's all.
Can you imagine how much scrambling the campaigns will do if the polling looks really different next week in say Florida, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. The campaigns have had obvious battlegrounds for a while now, but if Palin really changed the game that could be crazy. If the GOP has to defend Florida's 27 electoral votes, but has an opportunity to flip some of the Midwest, could be chaotic. Palin might just be worth -5 points in Florida and +5 in Pennsylvania, it'll probably show up in the polls next week, but I bet the campaigns already know some of what we're yet to find out.
I may be showing my age, but very few knew Sarah Palin existed six days ago.
And Lou Gehrig was a bench warmer until Huggins decided to shake up the line up.
Claiming she's ducking press conferences is pure hackery and reflects poorly on those making the acusations.
Ok. Then what do you call what she's doing?
The Alaskan Harpy's appeal will shrink to the hardcore reactionary prunes. She is an apt speaker, but this nonsense about experience is going to wear through...quickly. And until I see her unscripted in a non-controlled environment, she's just a cinderella waiting for midnight.
Correction to someone above.
Obama started with 42% points when McCain briefly took the lead.
Obama had a 15 point bounce, internally on the Gallup Daily Tracker. That's 57%.
That's actually Obama's ceiling write now and makes the most sense (not 52%).
Hillary-
And I know a lot of naval vets in Hampton Roads and Marines in Quantico who plan to do the same.
Kevin said...
I can't wait to see the next CO poll. Any idea when the next one will occur? This state will decide the general election.
I tend to agree. That's your likely tipping point in a close election.
Brad,
the thing is, NBC's ratings went up, but only so far. The key difference was that fox news got about 10 million viewers, much, much more than last week. they went from 4th or 5th in viewers to 1st by a 3 million viewer margin.
To our republican friends here:
can you cite one specific instance of Palin being attacked by the mainstream media. Just one? I don't mean us weekly or national enquirer, as those are not mainstream. And i don't mean blogs or an outside commentator on a news channel.
Please, just ONE example of mainstream media attacking her?
Nate, if you're so much smarter than all those running capitalist dogs over at InTrade, maybe you should put some money on the line!
The youth vote liked Obama when they thought he was new and exciting and fresh.
Since he has spent the last four months turning himself into a conventional politician, they won't be enthused like they were in the primaries and revert to their lazy, unmotivated selves.
In your dreams, VCon. There are two youth votes, collegiate and non-collegiate. The collegiate vote awoke in 2004 and it'll stay awake. Participation was 75% that year and it was heavily pro-Kerry. Not heavily enough, but still heavy. Obama is FAR more exciting to the kids than Kerry ever was, so that's going to work this year.
The issue is non-collegiate youth. Their participation is in the low- to mid-30s. It'll go up because just about every single black person in America is going to vote this year, but it will still be below average because white and Hispanic non-collegiate youth aren't going to change.
All in all, though, I don't worry about the youth vote. If the Democratic Party had any stones and would do something innovative on the minimum wage, the non-collegiate youth vote would come home in a major way, but as an institution the Democratic Party has been innovative for more than 40 years.
Interesting that the characters who posted the daily polling from 2004 have vanished.
We're now into the time of year when Bush head a slight but steady lead until the election.
The way the polls have gone Obama 2008 looks remarkably like Bush 2004.
"Participation was 75% that year and it was heavily pro-Kerry. "
Good thing we here at the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy switched their votes with our evil Diebold Machines!
*maniacal laughter*
Is it just me, or is there a maximum of 200 comments allowed per post on this site? I have noticed that there are numerous instances of people wanting to post something, but not having it show up because the quota has been reached. Just saying.
Citizen,
I don't do Intrade because I don't want to be accused of market manipulation, but feel free to e-mail me offline and we can place a bet at those 55/45 odds.
Drudge is turning tail for McCan't too. His posts since the start of the dem convention clearly show bias.
Golly gee, you've just noticed that Drudge is a Republican shill? Oh my.
"What a sad and sorry excuse for a country"
To all those who think it's come to this and this is all you have left to howl and moan about...
GET THE FUCK OUT! This is a democracy, and if you don't like who is elected by the people, I say again, GET THE FUCK OUT!
I'm sure you can find refuge in Canada, at the least. Or be bold and try somewhere in Europe. Hell, go to Russia if you have any balls! China, anyone? Japan? The Congo? Paraguay?
But if this is a sad excuse for a country in your opinion, and if you keep getting frustrated by a "low-info" and "ignorant" electorate putting in people you can't stand, GET THE FUCK OUT!
VC -
I have no doubt.
My point was more along the lines that Obama's more conventional actions in the past few weeks have yet to turn off most of my acquaintances. Just cause he is no longer shiny and new doesnt mean that the youth vote will necessarily abandon him (please note my hedging on this...this is my experience and is purely subjective.)
Good thing we here at the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy switched their votes with our evil Diebold Machines!
In Ohio, all kinds of tricks were played. Now that you don't have Kenneth Blackwell & Co. running that show, I think Democratic fears about Ohio are going to turn out to have been exaggerated.
The best part of every election is 1)The Democrats saying it was stolen by Diebold, and 2)all the leftists threatening to move to Canada.
"But if this is a sad excuse for a country in your opinion, and if you keep getting frustrated by a "low-info" and "ignorant" electorate putting in people you can't stand, GET THE FUCK OUT!"
Make me.
Your party's entire campaign is designed to appeal to people too stupid to inform themselves about the candidates.
The truth hurts. Choke on it.
Don't worry, pluckon, remember we are the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy, and if Obama doesn't win it means the election was STOLEN!
I'm amazed so many serial commentators here do not seem to read and digest the painstaking and groundbreaking work Nate has done. Today's case in point: Nate has worked and reworked the Bradley effect in careful research and thoughtful analysis recorded in the archives right here. Nevertheless few seem to be aware of it let alone acknowledge and give credit where it so obviously earned. I will leave it to those truly interested in serious analysis to read this site's archives re: the Bradley/Reverse Bradley/... effects on which Nate has devoted a good deal of work. Seriously why come here day after day if you don't appreciate or agree with the analysis and the numbers. Is trolling reallly that fun? This is about the future of the United States people. It IS fun to us junkies but has a far more important end result in the lives of everyone on this planet. [climbing off soap box now -- peace out]
And I know a lot of naval vets in Hampton Roads and Marines in Quantico who plan to do the same.
Yeah, now there's a real swing constituency. Ha ha ha ha!
To all those who think it's come to this and this is all you have left to howl and moan about...
GET THE FUCK OUT! This is a democracy, and if you don't like who is elected by the people, I say again, GET THE FUCK OUT!
Better idea: We'll stay and change it. We promise not to disrespect you so.
Very quick point on the youth vote. It isn't just that the youth is excited, its that they are being mobilised in a way that they haven't been before. they will turn out strongly in november.
Comparing Palin to Lou Gehrig?
1) She is not Lou Gehrig the baseball player, he was a true great.
2) She might have Lou Gehrig's disease in this campaign though, a slow wasting away.
VC-
Assuming present trends hold (and are not reversed by those mad republican hackers at Diebold), where will Republicans be threatening to move?
I agree with the tactic to get Sarah Palin out to numerous "small town meetings" for the next month. It will put her in friendly settings and hone talking points. It is a wise step to tutor her for a while.
I heard that Hillary, in her 2000 Senate race ducked the press, did not give interviews, small speeches at state fairs. (unsubstantiated)!! for the same reasons as Palin. Hillary had no knowledge on NY or other issues.
The MSM is picking their top reporters to trail Sarah and it does not matter when her campaign decides to go on Fox or PBS or Jay Leno. They will all jump at the chance. After that her campaign will decide whether she wants to go on CNN or MSNBC ---
I think that Nate has made a good statistical point that produced Obama's bounce to fade quickly.
However, I do question why the convention bounce adjustment was completely taken off? The purpose of this site is to predict what will happen for the election held in Nov (and not held "today").
But, by dropping the convention bounce, and saying the win percentages will go through a lot of changes - is admitting that the Statistical Models are flawed in some way. I don't want to believe that, but Nate you are kinda openly admitting that.
The best part of every election is 1)The Democrats saying it was stolen by Diebold, and 2)all the leftists threatening to move to Canada.
I don't think there's any question that the 'pubs stole the last two elections, but I do agree with you about the move-to-Canada stuff. It amuses me, too.
"Assuming present trends hold (and are not reversed by those mad republican hackers at Diebold), where will Republicans be threatening to move?"
We don't threaten to move anywhere, cause we're not a bunch of whining loons when we lose. We're also not going to accuse the Daley machine of stealing it, either.
I have read his Bradley effect work and it is very good. I still don't trust that there will be a significant Bradely effect in the oldsters. I think there is a deep seated psychology of race in this country.
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