9.21.2008

BREAKING: Obama Campaign Organizers Trying To Win Election Instead of Get You Yard Signs

In a controversial move sure to upset millions of people, Barack Obama’s campaign has decided to forgo the traditional time-wasting distribution of chum (yard signs, bumper stickers, etc.) to try and win the election.

Settling on what they call a “get voters to register by approaching them on the phone and at the door with an army of volunteers” strategy, Obama’s senior staff has directed state, regional, and local field organizers to use their finite time to make tangible progress toward winning.

It’s an approach that has ruffled some Democratic feathers.

That got me concerned, and I headed out to the Leesburg, Virginia, Obama office to see about getting myself one, thinking that some visibility for the Democratic ticket on my street was more critical than ever. My neighbors sometimes need "permission" to display their Democratic preferences, even though our Republican friends don't seem to wait for anyone's invitation.
Despite Obama’s 100% name recognition, opponents of the “maybe worry about visibility after registration deadlines close” strategy pronounced the situation “dire” on the front page of Daily Kos yesterday.
So dire was the situation that volunteers in the office were taking up collections to have their own signs printed.
Asked about this dire situation in Virginia, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe responded*, “You have got to be $@!#ing kidding me. Is this a joke? I’m busy, I have to go.”

The Obama campaign goal has been to register and track over 300,000 new voters in Virginia, including the direly-situated Leesburg. Though they are on pace to achieve this goal, some Democrats are concerned that people will see more McCain signs and feel dispirited.

Top Obama strategist David Axelrod, when reached for comment Sunday, noted*, “these yard sign questions are making my brain bleed. Please stop.”

Still, concerned Democrats are up in arms.
I need to know what's up with this. I know a lot of people don't think yard signs mean anything at all, but where I live, they're a critical part of the ground game -- like I said, giving less political or less outspoken neighbors the permission they need to open up about their support. (emphasis added)
Obama campaign strategists believe that, with their massive months-long, grinding-it-out-every-day registration plan, that 80 percent of those new registrations would vote for Obama, and that 75% of the newly registered voters will turn out. If 75% of an 80-20 split on 300,000 new registrants turns out, that’s Barack Obama adding 135,000 bonus votes to his total in Virginia alone. Organizers in Obama’s Virginia campaign offices have been sternly instructed to focus on those numbers by spending long, exhausting days recruiting volunteers instead of spending their limited time worrying about whether there are enough yard signs to go around.

Still, some concerned Democrats need to know what the heck these guys are thinking, because “feeling good” is really important.

Concernedly, they stress that seeing a yard sign is one way for neighbors to have conversations with one another about politics. Since most people tend to vote or not vote based on visibility peer pressure**, Dems may be in danger of losing the tender flower swing vote to McCain.

In South Carolina’s crushing Obama primary win, there were a measly 1,000 Obama yard signs in the entire state. But asked whether an “up mood” via yard sign is a “critical part of the ground game in Virginia,” National Field Director Temo Figeroa began laughing until the end of time*.

*Note: Made-up quotes. But not inaccurate, wanna wager?
**Note: Absolutely false

*-*

Listen.

Organizers – the people out there killing themselves to win this election – hate yard signs with the white-hot intensity of a thousand suns.

Barack Obama’s organizers hate them. John McCain’s organizers hate them. It’s because yard signs don’t vote – but they do generate a ridiculous amount of complaining that must be patiently listened to. Until yard signs sprout little legs and go to the polls on Election Day, in a presidential election with universal name recognition they are just a nice little decoration.

They’re little feel good things, making you feel like you’re on the team. There is nothing wrong with that – that’s not the objection. The objection is that there is limited time for organizers to accomplish a wide array of prioritized tasks, and in this election they’ve chosen to prioritize identifying, registering, persuading and getting their voters to the polls. Yard signs cut into the organizer’s sleep time – literally.

A lot of people aren’t going to like hearing this truth, but organizers recognize that the majority of people who walk into offices for yard signs are, for volunteering purposes – and this is a technical term – useless. In the majority, these people are not going to knock, they’re not going to make phone calls. Instead, they are going to throw the organizer’s incredibly precious, sleep-deprived time down a bottomless abyss of irretrievability.

People who plant yard signs are maybe going to make their neighbors aware that they support a particular candidate, and in theory, if they live near voters who cede their opinions to peer pressure, they could theoretically be shading the influence of a vote here or there.

Here’s a little secret: there will always be exceptions, but people who spend a lot of time volunteering in campaign offices tend to get yard signs. Organizers know and love these people dearly, and they take care of them.

Every single person pouring real effort into this campaign knows what I’m writing is true. In every office we stop into, we ask both sides about yard signs. It’s unanimous. In good old purple Colorado, in Montezuma County, the Republican women volunteering at the local office pointed out how their signs read, “Paid for by the Montezuma County Republican Party.” They, too, had to generate their own local signs, and have to deal with unhappy people who stop in to get their prize but go away empty handed.

Yes, of course it would be nice to have more yard signs. If organizers had an infinite amount of time, they would be happy to pester their bosses up the ladder to see when they’re coming in. Then they’d love to chat with you about how someone stole or defaced them, and run a bunch of replacements right out.

But in the very purple, exurban Northern Virginia neighborhoods there is a problem. There’s a walk list sitting in a campaign office not being walked and knocked, and a newly-registered voter who projects as .45 of a vote for Obama is not being registered.

That one was for you, Every Organizer in America. Love ya, you magnificent bastards.

608 comments

Andy said...

The only concern I have is that if Obama gets a huge number of people to register to vote, polling centers on election night might not be able to cope with all the queues of voters and people will be left standing in line when voting ends.

Vote said...

Obama actually supports unions, by [gasp] using unions to make his street signs.

Sept 21 Polling Update

Obama 289, McCain 249

Does Bush Support McCain?

Their Possible Pasts

Cindy McCain's Fallacious Rebuttal

The Red November: An analysis on campaign marketing

jd35 said...

The first half of this post sounded like something from The Onion!

SwingStatePA said...

No offense, but who cares? I come here to read poling info, not repeats of stuff that was on Kos 12X in the past 24 hours.

Now - where is the poling update?

Gerbie said...

WTF! Get real.

Gildareed on Dailykos.

"...My fellow American patriots...

There is NO justification for a country as great as ours to have no universal health care, where millions upon millions are underinsured if insured at all, and elderly must choose between meals and medicine.

There is NO justification for a country as great as ours to have a shackled education system and an idiotic No Child Left Behind sham.

There is NO justification for a country as great as ours to have a constitution on paper, in name only and not in practice, where government lawbreakers are protected from prosecution.

There is NO justification for a country as great as ours to use terror as a whip to control us, as sheep, and keep us subservient and unquestioning.

There is NO justification for a country as great as ours to have world trade agreements that give our unions the shaft, shrink our middle class, export jobs overseas, and import inferior products here.

There is NO justification for a country as great as ours to have gasoline and groceries so outrageously priced, home foreclosures skyrocketing as never before, and unequal pay for women.

There is NO justification for a country as great as ours to have our sons and daughters sacrificed in a fabricated war, under-equipped in battle with benefits cut when they return.

There is NO justification for a country as great as ours to have pre-emptive war and torture IN and the Geneva Convention OUT, to have our honorable reputation trashed among leaders of the free world.

There is NO justification for a country as great as ours to neglect and deceive and kick in the teeth a whole devastated area of Katrina and Rita-land and then have the audacity to blame it all on us.

There is NO justification for a country as great as ours to be dependent on foreign oil, to drag our heels on alternative energy and to rape our environment.

There is no justification, my friends, for any of these atrocities-—all of which occurred under Republican rule.
..."

So make sure we win the election, don't bother with yard signs, and , if people want to have yard signs, i'm sure the constitution alows them to maken one.

Get the votes out and stop vote caging that's all that matters

Dave C said...

I have no worries about people waiting in line, because there are plenty of countries where people wait in lines wondering if the booth will be blown up while they are in it.

What is a few hours in line on Nov.4th v what two thirds of the world has?

Simon said...

jd35 -
I thought the exact same thing!

And to swingstatepa -
I do. This sort of stuff adds substance - it gives perspective. You don't like it don't read it.

Bryan said...

Bravo.

Christie Keith said...

Consider my socks officially rocked by you.

such sweet thunder said...

In the Manchester Obama office yesterday, I had to sit through some poor campaign staffer getting yelled at by a volunteer for not having enough chochkies.

This was in an office where the organization was impeccable: taped walking directions on the floor; in-and-out instruction and assignments in the span of ten minutes; coffee; and the coup de grace, taped sign on the door indicating North and South for those leaving to canvass.

Here's to you, Manchester NH staffer.

BeanoCook said...

LOL! "Breaking" this site is dreaming.

AnotherMike said...

Sean, any opinion about the efficacy of yard signs in low profile races? In particular, I'm thinking about my state representative race in a Republican leaning district. The Democratic candidate made a big effort to get lost of yard signs out to volunteers and planted. Wasted effort or helpful in lower profile races?

M said...

WORD!

Alex S. said...

I don´t know... putting up yard signs is like "marking your territory". Or a good excuse not to volunteer. Maybe the Obama campaign should swamp southern Ohio with yard signs and give the impression that there are more Obama-voters than McCain-voters...
But in general, yard signs are the effect, not the cause, of a good campaign.

FloaterMan said...

They make it nice and easy for others to make there own.

http://www.barackobama.com/download
s/

robtomorrow said...

I was going to go to my local feild office today and see if I could get couple of bumper stickers and a yard sign.

After reading this I guess I skip it and let them focus on the important things. :)

pygmy_owl said...

Most people own a color printer nowadays. The Obama campaign offers posters for folks to print-out: put them in your windows. We have a CHANGE sign that we got at INVESCO. I mean, yard signs are nice, but there are other ways to show support.

Redshift said...

There's another element that is hinted at in your post, but was expressed very well by my local staffer. When the polls are close in a state, or the race is perceived as competitive, supporters who haven't been sufficiently motivated berfore want to do something. If you give them a yard sign to put up, a lot of them will feel they have done something, and be less likely to do something that actually helps win the election.

I like having a yard sign, myself. All my neighbors know me as the guy with the signs in my yard every election, no matter how minor. And I'm willing to work my butt off every election, so I'm okay with the Obama policy.

Redshift said...

BeanoCook - there's this concept called "sarcasm," perhaps you've heard of it?

David said...

I think you're getting A bit too punchy a bit too early in the election... hang in there! Wait until November 5 to go crazy!

Audient said...

I live on a busier residential street, so I do make an effort to put up yard signs -- but I do agree with the overall point here.

Happily, I still have my Obama sign from the primary.

camorse said...

I must wholeheartedly agree with Sean. Last week, in the Massachusetts primary, my state representative (Carl Sciortino) was not on the ballot for re-election due to a SNAFU with signatures, and he was going up against my alderman (Bob Trane) as the only name actually appearing on the ballot.

So, I was originally quite saddened, because my young, liberal-progressive representative was going to be replaced by an old guard, socially conservative democrat. The district runs through Medford and west Somerville, and about 25% of all yards had Bob Trane signs; he had signs in the windows of 50% of all local businesses and cars everywhere had Bob Trane bumper stickers. In the week before the primary (which is really the only thing that matters in deeply democratic Somerville), I only managed to find 2 Carl yard signs, and a handful of bumperstickers.

In the end, Carl won a write-in primary with a "sticker" campaign, 55% to 45% by over 450 votes. This was all due to his organization and ground campaign. There were many volunteers (in brightly colored matching T-shirts) at each voter location handing out stickers to place in the write-in section. Volunteers went door-to-door both before the election, and on election day making sure people voted.

In the end, this taught me two valuable lessons. Write-in campaigns for incumbents are winnable but something to avoid. And, lawn signs really don't do anything, and are indicative of nothing. (This also matches when I go up to New Hampshire to visit my parents, and I see no Shaheen lawn signs, and lots of Sununu signs, and we all know how that race is polling.)

Redshift said...

AnotherMike - if a candidate has lower name recognition than his/her opponent, then yard signs can definitely help. That's the one thing they're useful for.

Segal4House said...
This post has been removed by the author.
FloaterMan said...

Morsel - Is that you? It's me Hareesh.

camipco said...

You can buy them from the website. They ship to your door. You don't even need to leave the house.

http://store.barackobama.com/product_p/ys29682.htm

As a volunteer with a good 70 hours logged in the office, I've seen exactly the same thing you describe. People who volunteer get chum no problem. People who just come in for chum are more trouble than they are worth. Our Field Organizers, working 80 hours weeks for 20 hour wages, are buying chum with their own money.

Also, anyone with hands and access to blue paint/markers can make their own yard sign. It's not hard.

Volunteers get free cookies too.

Eric said...

I've concluded the only potential tipping point state for Obama that might be blue enough to win in an even popular vote elction with Kerry +NM+IA is Colorado. Any experts out there regarding Colorado?

janeylaird said...

Hey Sean,
Thanks for this post and the posts from Nevada and New Mexico. I think they are excellent. Keep going!

PS - the pictures are terrific too.
Janey

G said...

Andy , if people are in line at the time polls close they have to be allowed to vote

craigw5 said...

Sean, I've neglected saying this up until now, but I really can't feel good about myself if I let it go unsaid any longer.

You're a fabulous writer.

There, I feel better already.

joshjgt said...

Make your own sign.

Kagro X said...

This is disingenuous as all fuck.

The "dire" situation wasn't the state of the campaign. It was that volunteers had to sit in the office and get shit on ten times a day because the Chicago Boys decided to force the frontliners to be the apologists for their theories about yard signs.

They're hating it, and walk-ins are hating the answers they get, and the reasons they're being given. Then they're walking out without filling in the campaign's precious voter contact forms.

That's what's "dire."

But maybe you can soothe a bunch of insulted hayseeds by quoting them some f-ing statistics about how stupid they are. Have we tried that yet?

Glen said...

Put it on rails

In Fairfax County here in VA, we have the yard sign thing on rails. The local committees take care of it, from lists of people who have told our canvassers, often during low stress off-year elections, that they like signs in their yard every election. So they get their signs delivered every election by long-term volunteers who have a long-term history of never wanting to canvass, and so do this for us every year. It costs the committee a little money, but not much, and it just gets itself done year after year without needing the time or energy of folks with higher prioritie.

Virginia Conservative said...

This is kind of insulting to people who come in asking for yard signs. Might be turning off a few voters there.

JL said...

I was mad that i donated so much money to Obama and didnt get a sign. Now I feel stupid. :)

Mark Grebner said...

This problem is actually easy to solve, if we recognize what's driving it and we abandon useless past practice and ritual. For a top-of-ticket campaign, signs don't create or switch any votes, so it doesn't make sense to devote campaign resources to them.

Lawnsigns, buttons, bumper stickers - they make the person displaying them FEEL better. Like a good movie, or scotch, or petting a kitten. Those are genuine benefits, but they accrue to the SUPPORTER, not the campaign.

The answer is simple, or would have been 30 days ago, when there was still a little planning flexibility. Obtain large stocks of desired items, and SELL them at the sort of mark-up we see in retail situations: $5 for a lawnsign, $1 for a button or bumper sticker. (Buying by the million, the cost per item is maybe 20% of the price.)

But who will handle the items? That's easy, too: the very would-be volunteers who can't be pushed into doing anything useful, but can't stop talking about their new Obama-Biden coffee mug.

And where do the profits go? Either to the campaign, or - my preference - to a small kitty to provide stuff that the local campaign office lacks: folding chairs, coffee, marker pens, whatever.

Really, it's possible to make people happy without screwing up the main mission.

FloridaGOP said...

Scott Rasmussen on Fox just now, said
Only 1/4 of voters believe that either McCain or Obama can do anything to improve the economy.

Truthfully, I did not think that there were that many optimists left.

This may be a reason that the Economy is less of an issue than it could have been.

cher said...

Such passion. I bought my Obama yard sign during the primary. I have lived in my neighborhood for 4 years and did not meet anyone here as everyone including me is busy working. After I put up the sign my neighbor came over and we have organized some things together, because she saw my sign. I volunteered for the DNC here in Denver and gave her a sign which she put up and she has met others because of it. Not all bad... So we are not going door to door but have had Obama parties, met people, and have helped a number of people that we would not otherwise have known about because of the yard sign. Twenty bucks well spent

Virginia Conservative said...

Anything on that supposedly leaked PA poll, floridagop?

Matt said...

Thank you for this. Really

Andrew Lazarus said...

I think yard signs are useful and important. They legitimize the candidate. They may demoralize Team Fascist.

We bought a button-making machine and do our own buttons. The yard sign is from the primary. I agree, people can print their own—so let's encourage that!

sporcupine said...

I just ordered 10 more yard signs from the Obama website as a way to resolve my conflict about this post.

On the one hand, the campaign's strategy is right.

On the other hand, those who back a campaign enjoy showing that off, and the fun is bigger when someone likes yours and you can offer to put one in their hands immediately or in their yard by sundown.

The way to square up the campaign priorities and the personal enjoyment is to order online, share generously, and mentally bill that to your self-indulgences-like-banana-split-and-hour-long-reflexology account.

Then remember that you have to get out there and do OTHER things that can count as deposits in your I-did-something-for-my-candidate-party-country-and-planet account.

Again, the Obama store has yard signs in stock, so you can truly have it all.

gareth said...

Haha, the Leesburg office is my local campaign HQ and I've been there a few times...We've got enough to do without worrying about yard sings.

Do what I did and buy some yourself off the internet, Democraticstuff.com usually has good prices.

Gerbie said...

Enough said about yard signs and printers.

Agree with

SwingStatePA said...

Now - where is the poling update?

CW said...

You can buy a yard sign for $8 apiece at:

http://store.barackobama.com/product_p/ys29682.htm

I bought two today.

The poor field organizers are working 14 hours a day and sleeping on people's floors -- at least that's what they're doing here in the swing state of Nevada. They need to prioritize their time and devote it to registering Democrats and getting them to early voting (starts Oct. 18) or to the polls on Nov. 4.

FloridaGOP said...

@VC,
Anything on that supposedly leaked PA poll, floridagop?

Nothing -- RATS! that is what I was looking for -- to hear any hints but Scott did not comply

Rob in Denver said...

@Andy (first): It's a valid concern. I know that here in Colorado, everyone who's in line when the polls close gets to vote. The moment the polls close, the polling place supervisor passes out tickets to everyone in line --- starting with the last person in line and moving forward.

No ticket. No ballot. But as long as you've got one, you get to vote. Even if it's 3 a.m.

Virginia Conservative said...

I think someone was BSing with the PA poll. Who "heard" it? MVRed?

Sam S said...

This isn't really a comment about yard signs or updated polling results but it is a question about the changing demographics of the electorate.

First, after finding this site a couple of weeks ago I think it is a fair assessment that the majority of the posters here are younger liberals. It is also a fair assessment that younger voters tend to be heavily democratic leaning. I believe this trend has been true for a long time. Heck, even Winston Churchill opined, "Any man who is under 30, and is not a liberal, has not heart; and any man who is over 30, and is not a conservative, has no brains."

My question is this, what is it that makes young liberals turn into older conservatives? In other words, a good portion of you posters, the younger liberals, are probably going to grow up into older conservatives.

I know it may seem impossible to some of you but I would think the statistics would back me up on this. So, what is it? There would seem to be a lot of possibilities but I wonder what you think are the reasons that many of you will turn into conservatives as you get older.

politicalcynic said...

Great job. LOVED IT.

FloridaGOP said...

@cher Such passion. I bought my Obama yard sign during the primary. I have lived in my neighborhood for 4 years and did not meet anyone here as everyone including me is busy working. After I put up the sign my neighbor came over and we have organized some things together, because she saw my sign. I volunteered for the DNC here in Denver and gave her a sign which she put up and she has met others because of it. Not all bad... So we are not going door to door but have had Obama parties, met people, and have helped a number of people that we would not otherwise have known about because of the yard sign. Twenty bucks well spent<<<<<

I agree Cher, I do EXACTLY the same thing , only for McCain. The Yard Sign encouraged others of like mind to come and talk to me, We talk about issues, and how to get other McCain Supporters engaged.

The campaign people just want us on the phone calls. It seems that everything else is unimportant to them, I enjoy talking to other voters on how we can communicate and interact with people who want to think of new ways to help our candidate.

Virginia Conservative said...

"My question is this, what is it that makes young liberals turn into older conservatives? "

Having to actually pay taxes.

Tyler said...

1 yard sign: $8 + 7.80 shipping.
500 yard signs: $1500 +495. shipping

Anyone who wants a yard sign can buy one. It's not difficult. I can see why ground campaigns hate this kind of stuff. It involves interacting with the same kind of people who want detailed information about Obama's health plan but refuse to visit the website and then complain that the campaign is vague about details.

I interact with many relative on exactly this kind of issue, and I get frustrated with their willful ignorance and they get frustrated because I keep saying "barackobama.com/issues".

Eric said...

COLORADO FOLKS TALK TO ME,

I think Colorado will decide this election. Which way is it likely to go assuming a deadeven popular vote. My understanding is something like this:

Denver and surrounding 1,000,000

55-45 Obama net 100,000

Aurora 500,000 60-40 Obama net 100,000

Boulder 100,000 65-35 Obama net 30,000

Colorado Springs 500,000 60-40 McCain McCain net 100,000

Rest of Colorado 2.5 MM 55-45 McCain

McCain up about 100,000? Sound about right? i don't know the state that well. Am an Obama supporter looking to Coloradans for answers.

Heidi8 said...

If you want a yard sign you can find thousands on CafePress for 14 - 19 dollars, or get one for five bucks from DemocraticStuff.com - http://www.democraticstuff.com/Obama-08-Yard-Sign-p/ys23239.htm - and if you get together with four friends and each get one, the shipping is free.
'S what I did.

jack black said...

Sean Oxedine at THENEXTRIGHT.COM slams Nate SILVER over his commentary on an article Sean wrote on the Bradley Effect.

Basically he called NATE a left wing Troll and accused him of not reading his article.

Everybody knows Nate is a left wing WANKER-Nate you should apologize to Sean for your article-

Pay attention to the last couple of sentences of Sean's article. I'll take being behind in Michigan and Penn. by 2 points than being behind in VA by 2 points. THE BRADLEY EFFECT. It exists NATE!!!!

Mule Rider said...

I know it may seem impossible to some of you but I would think the statistics would back me up on this. So, what is it? There would seem to be a lot of possibilities but I wonder what you think are the reasons that many of you will turn into conservatives as you get older.

Plain and simple. It comes down to one major thing. Most people under 30 are yet to see the fruits of their labor and how years of hard work can and do pay off. They're still under the thumb of "the man" at th is stage in life for the most part.

Then, the ones who have heart and ambition, bust their ass and make something of themselves and have plenty to show for it.

By then, the liberal calling card of looking out for the little guy, the weak and downtrodden, etc. has worn very thin.

They see that the examples of people truly being destitute due to a bad run of luck and misfortunate situations is few and far between. They see that it is primarily people who do nothing for themselves, their fellow citizens, or this country who are falling behind.

Yet the liberal band keeps playing on how to reach out to these groups who refuse to pick themselves out of the mud, and more and more people realize that the vast majority of those people in the mud are there because they simply won't do anything to make it better for themselves and are primarily looking for someone to come along and give them something unearned.

So as middle and old age approaches, people shudder to think that a larger portion of what they've worked hard for over the years will simply be put in the recycle bin and pushed out the other side in the form of a handout to a bunch of do-nothings who don't deserve it.

That is why people become more conservative, as a general rule, as they age.

MrInsight22 said...

The three major obstacles Obama faces in CO are:

There ia a referendum on the ballot to ban affirmative action. Such referenda have passed by big margins in every state so far including CA.

The NRA is going to spend a great deal of money in CO to defeat Obama and Biden who are both rated F.

The pick of Palin the hunter has galvanized religious conservatives who dominate the state outside of Denver and Boulder.

The state may come down to Latino turnout and what percentage of Latinos Barack gets.

PA John said...

In regards to the FOX/Rass PA Poll leak - The Rass/FOX polls have been polling on Sundays the last 2 weeks (9/7 and 9/14)... so I can't understand how a poll that is likely being taken as we speak can have results leaked?

DarienCrow said...

This sign thing seems like the "sign" of an anemic campaign.

Obama, in my opinion, made a horrible mistake opting out of public financing. He can't just campaign... he has to raise money every day.

McCain has his money and the RNC to help him. The RNC is wealthy.

Obama has himself. The DNC is broke.

Obama was counting on $500 million dollars from his supporters to finance his 50 state strategy and it just didn't pan out. He cut financing in a huge amount of states.

He was extremely late putting out his over inflated $66 million dollar number... buying time to include $9 million Barbara Streisand lovefest I'm sure, so it's not a complete embarrasment.

You see... If Obama cannot make his opting out of public financing look like it was a successful strategy... it will look as if he has REALLY BAD JUDGMENT!

jack black said...

What does this PA poll show? a lead for McCain? wAS THIS GOING TO BE A Rasmussen Poll?

JokeBlower said...

I live in northern Virginia (inside the beltway) and I've had Obama campaigners come to my door twice in the last week. They didn't offer me any buttons or signs, but they did make very sure to confirm that I was a) going to the polls and b) voting for Barack.

The McCain campaign hasn't been out this way yet. Maybe they're focusing on other portions of the map.

I don't have any trouble finding yard signs or bumper stickers for either candidate on my street.

FWIW...

JokeBlower said...

I live in northern Virginia (inside the beltway) and I've had Obama campaigners come to my door twice in the last week. They didn't offer me any buttons or signs, but they did make very sure to confirm that I was a) going to the polls and b) voting for Barack.

The McCain campaign hasn't been out this way yet. Maybe they're focusing on other portions of the map.

I don't have any trouble finding yard signs or bumper stickers for either candidate on my street.

FWIW...

Virginia Conservative said...

There is no "leaked" PA poll. Someone pulled it out of their ass.

jack black said...

jokeblower we read you the first time.

janeylaird said...

Sean,
When you get to Grand Junction, look for the Salt Lake region volunteers there. It seems to me, from Utah Obama Campaign office (yes - there is one!), that volunteers from this region are going to Grand Junction on weekends.

This seems like a great allocation of resources.
Janey

jyeasting said...

Yes, yard signs are evil, and they generate far more hassles than they're worth -- but there is a use, even in a pres. campaign: Yard signs, and their slightly-less-evil twin bumper stickers, are useful in geog. areas where you have thin support -- e.g. 20-30 percent -- In these areas where a social norm has emerged that one must vote for the other guy, low information supporters are deterred from expressing their support or from turning out. An occasional yard sign in these areas can let a supporter know that he's not alone.

Mike said...

I wanted an Obama/Biden car magnet, so I donated to the campaign for it.

I want a rally sign to put in my window (live in an apartment, hence no yard), so I'll buy it from the store at barackobama.com.

I wanted a button and a tshirt, so I donated to moveon.org.

The idea of getting free swag just seems odd to me.

Sedi said...

Eric,
Glenn_in_CO did a couple of really excellent posts describing CO in detail. It was probably a week or two ago, though, and there is no good way to search through old posts. That's one of the few things that I don't like about this site.

Sean,
I wasn't quite certain from your post, but it seemed like you were trying to say that the central goal of every campaign should be to maximize the number of yard signs and then just cross their fingers for victory, right? I was going to go volunteer to knock on doors, but now I see that doing so would be pointless. I'll just trust that my yard sign will influence passing drivers. Ah, now I feel good about myself.

such sweet thunder said...

Kagro X:

I'll respond to your comment in the hopes that this doesn't go in the wrong direction.

First off, as an aside, and I'm sure you didn't mean it this way, but I'm less than pleased with your use of the term "Chicago Boys." Why don't you make it Chicago Boys with San Francisco values? We're all in this together, and we have to be vigilant against any insinuation of those Real 'Mericans Republican talking points.

Secondly, you have an amplifier at Kos to inform thousands of political activists. If the "stats" don't support your theory that signs help -- and all indications from the Obama and McCain campaigns hint that they don't -- then maybe it would have better to explain why, and in turn, why you might disagree.

I can't imagine anyone being angry enough to not fill out a voter reg form because they didn't get a chochkie, and if they actually were, then that was probably not a voter who could be counted on.

We supporters need to know the truth: What actions will help our candidate and which actions will absolutely not. I've read your post three times now and the only conclusion I can reach is that you're advocating without any support a proposition that both campaigns are implicitly rejecting. Perhaps the tone of this post was harsh, but it's time for people to understand why the campaigns have rejected your approach, instead of just arguing for it without any empirical basis.

Marcus said...

Camrose,

I also live in Ward 7 Somerville and I actually got a yard sign from the Sciortino campaign because I didn't like seeing all the Trane signs on my block going unanswered. My sign was stolen the first night it was up, so I went down to the campaign office and picked up another one (and wrote them a check for $30). In this case, I feel that the signs helped at least a little, because Sciortino's name not on the ballot and seeing the sign let people know he was running, though there were plenty of mailings and volunteers going around which undoubtedly were more effective in this purpose. Mostly the sign was to make me feel good, which I guess is exactly Nate's point.

Sam S said...

Thanks for your responses VA Conservative and Mule Rider. I would like to hear from the younger liberals though. Do you agree with the assessments of these two? If not, what are your opinions as to other reasons that cause the shift to conservatism with age?

jack black said...

Considering the past week I have been pleasantly surprised at the good state polls coming out in Ohio, Florida and Michigan for McCain.

one or two points down in Michigan is a win for McCain. The Bradley Effect. The same for Pennsylvania. It looks like CO. is now coming around as well. ODUMBO'S anti-gun views will be plastered all over the airwaves in Co. and the Mt. boys will be pouring out to the polls.

zzyzx said...

Here's the original posts. Anyone know this "Barry?"

Blogger Barry said...

Some Rasmussen Reports guy just leaked a couple of hints for tomorrow's Rasmussen battleground polling update:

"McCain takes a lead in a state for the first time since the general election" - Since McCain has shown leads in CO, FL, VA, and OH, that means he must be ahead tomorrow in Pennsylvania.

"Obama's spending in Florida does not seem to be working in his favor" - McCain extends lead in Florida?

"McCain still has to be happy about Ohio despite the events of last week" - McCain still up at least 3 in Ohio?

September 21, 2008 12:14 PM
Blogger Barry said...

Oh, and he leaked it on FOX News.

Should be fun tomorrow

September 21, 2008 12:15 PM

Virginia Conservative said...

And he gives no links? Troll.

jack black said...

Just BS-these polls are being done tonight.

pygmy_owl said...

Sam:

Since I'm well into my thirties, maybe I can answer that question. I think what generally happens is that short-term self-interest begins to usurp concern over neighbor, community, and country. As I've gotten into better and better paying jobs, it gets harder and harder for me to look beyond my own short-term self-interest. This is particularly true when I am assaulted continually from the right with the "tax and spend" rhetoric of the right wing.

My general attitude is that it's actually in my interest to support stable economic growth and to support my community. Indeed, I've chosen to live in a liberal community because I think it runs very, very well. (Evidence of this is in the cost of living here. Boulder is damned expensive; and it's that way partly because people want (and will pay) to live here.) This is true for many progressive communities, from Ann Arbor to Chapel Hill to Austin to Tucson to San Francisco. These are really fantastic places to live. One thing that makes them fantastic places to live is that they have strong and supportive networks, as well as some sense that reinvestment in the community makes the community and the life of each citizen better.

It is, nevertheless, hard to pay lots and lots of taxes on my income. it's hard, even though I know this. It's hard like not eating a second piece of cake is hard.

So, to put this as succinctly as I can, I think older people tend to be more invested in their wealth, more invested in ensuring that they can pay their bills. Being more invested in this respect means turning one's back on the broader question of what makes for a good community or country.

At any rate, that's pretty oversimplified, but it makes some sense, I'd say.

zzyzx said...

Like I said on the other thread, it reminds me of the "leaked" 49-42 NC poll of yesterday that didn't happen.

I refuse to believe Rasmussen gave that much detail.

DarienCrow said...

I've had Fox on all day... nothing at all from Rasmussen that I have seen.

Virginia Conservative said...

HAI GUYS I JUST HEARD FROM SOME GALLUP GUY ON C-SPAN THAT OBAMA IS IN THE LEAD IN KENTUCKY!!

Eric said...

Sedi,

Can Obama make up all that ground in Colorado? If Denver, Aurora, and Boulder are washed out for the most part by Colorado Springs it seems the rest of the state would have to be close to even for Obama to win the thing. I'm concerned because I have a feeling whomever wins Colorado will win this thing.

jack black said...

Wasn't there a 49 to 42 Ohio Poll just released? Maybe that was what they were talking about.

realistxxx said...

Good article on early voting claiming that nearly 1/3 of all votes may be mailed in this election.

In CA I have never gone to the polls and always just mail my ballot in.

They estimate that CO may have as many as 50% early voters.

This has to help the more organized and energized Obama campaign.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080921/ap_on_el_pr/early_voting;_ylt=AlzeOHTW1.Z6nZnigUgbPelsnwcF

zzyzx said...

It was 49-42 OBAMA

jack black said...

I heard the same thing VCON, but it was Alabama that ODUMBO took the lead in.

PeteKent said...

I'll get to the yard signs in a sec, but this caught my eye in the RCP today.

I am starting to compile these articles about the Bradley Effect as there has been a lot of discussion on the topic here and i am one of those who believes the BE is going to rear its head in this election.

The Effect is probably more strongly felt in Union houselholds, where conformity is often imposed by strong arm tactics and where secret ballots are anathema.

Thus there is a strong latent vote for McCain in the heartland. The polls are not picking it up, just as they did not see the big victories that HRC won in OH and PA. There has long been talk of the Bradley effect and while some discount it based on recent history, I believe that the way many reflexively cast opposition to Obama as racial prejudice, has caused much of his opposition to go underground. This effect is even more magnified in union families where shop stewards are also out there policing electoral behavior.


http://comments.realclearpolitics.com/read/1/200685.html#REPLY

Virginia Conservative said...
This post has been removed by the author.
Virginia Conservative said...

I still say (from bluest to least blue) its Pennsylvania >Michigan >Ohio. That's why I had a suspicion the "leaked" poll was crap.

Eric said...

jack black said...
Considering the past week I have been pleasantly surprised at the good state polls coming out in Ohio, Florida and Michigan for McCain.

one or two points down in Michigan is a win for McCain. The Bradley Effect. The same for Pennsylvania. It looks like CO. is now coming around as well. ODUMBO'S anti-gun views will be plastered all over the airwaves in Co. and the Mt. boys will be pouring out to the polls.



What gives you the impression Colorado is "coming around".

Pinku-Sensei said...

I canvassed yesterday for Obama. There were very few yard signs in the neighborhood where I walked, only one of which was for a presidential candidate. It was for Chuck Baldwin of the Constitution Party. That one saved me time. I stood in front of the house, checked off "supports other" on the report form, and continued on to the next address on the walklist. If McCain's supporters want to put yard signs up, it's fine with me. That way, I can concentrate on all the Obama supporters!

zzyzx said...

"The polls are not picking it up, just as they did not see the big victories that HRC won in OH and PA."

Quite a few polls saw HRC winning by 5-10 points. Without PPP throwing it off, they'd be pretty spot on.

Sedi said...

VA Con,
The original person who posted about that Rasmussen poll (I can't recall who it was, but it was one of the conservatives who generally have nothing to say), made reference to 3 polls coming out from Rasmussen. The description, supposed from a Rasmussen person on Fox, was positive for McCain in all three, including a reference to him leading in a state where he hadn't led before. There was no specific mention of PA, but within a few comments people sort of assumed that it was PA and some of the liberals got all jittery or tried to explain it away while some of the conservatives took this as a sign that McCain is reviving. Typical stuff.

I never put too much stock in reports of what upcoming polls will say. Yesterday folks were talking about a PPP poll that would show Obama up (perhaps by 7 points?) in NC, but when it actually came out it was tied. If McCain leads in a Rasmussen poll tomorrow, it means that McCain leads in a Rasmussen poll. Not much else. Single poll results just don't mean that much. Who else really thinks that Obama is within 6 points in SC? Thought so. Oh, I see that another laughable result that you just reported: Obama up in KY. Yeah, right. As I say, single polls don't mean much at all.

boulder-liberal said...

@Eric

Boulder county had 205,358 registered voters as of 9/2/08.

Not 100K.

Virginia Conservative said...

Sedi-

That "poll result" was a joke. Sorry that wasn't clear. I was satarizing the "leaked polls" crap.

Ian Burns said...

"I would like to hear from the younger liberals though."

I'm younger and Liberal, dad of a one-year-old. I pulled myself up by my bootstraps, by that I mean I was handed a golden opportunity, worked hard and it paid off. I'm not rich, but I can go on vacation when I want and don't have to check the bank account all the time, so I'm happy.

I used to be much more conservative. Even, gasp, religious. But then I grew up and I saw what Libertarianism, Conservatism and the Free Market meant in the real world. Most people that I met along that way that called themselves Conservatives or Libertarians were really saying that didn't give a shit about anything, at least through their actions.

What else? Biggest reason is the Iraq war. Conservatives/Libertarians were satisfied that "some" Arab country paid for 9/11. Liberals seemed to actually care that we used our military in the right place.

How's that?

The Real Mike Is Back said...

I cannot agree more with the idea that signs don't vote. One well placed sign for every 5,000 people is plenty.

Eric - you're right about Colorado. But we do need more information about gun support and these so-called mountain boys coming out to vote. Are there enough to offset liberal Denver? And Realistixxx, mail in ballots in largely rural areas help conservatives. They don't set up polling booths there. Not that I'm saying you made a bad point. It's just another thing to watch.

Ever hear this old joke? What's the difference between a wealthy conservative and a wealthy liberal? A good tax accountant.

InkStain said...

I don't think it's out of the question that a pollster might find a McCain lead in Pennsylvania. Obama is likely ahead a few points there, and if you do enough polls of a +3 state the odds say you'll eventually get a random -1 thrown in there.

Yesterday we had O+4 in Missouri and 0+7 in NC as leaked reports.

PeteKent said...

As far as Yard Signs go, I am surprised. I think in many middle and working class neighborhoods it will be important to establish a sense of community in favor of Obama. That it is okay to vote for this Black man of Muslim extraction with the funny-sounding name who does not look like all of those other Presidents on the dollar bills.

More so than for McCain, many of those who are tempted to vote for Obama no doubt wonder if it is an okay thing to do within their community (remember Obama loses the white vote by like 60 to 40). I bet it would comfort them to see some tangible expression of support from their neighbors.

I am finding that this is an electoral contest that may be very interesting to people, but it is a private affair and many are afraid to discuss their leanings.

The whole thing has become so racially charged.

jack black said...

Co. will come around due to anti-gun views of ODUMBO and his running mate. The NRA will plaster the state in October with ads. Anti-affirmative action ballot will pass, and if you vote for Odumbo you will not vote for this ballot.

All in all a 5 point McCain win.

realistxxx said...

Individual state polls are meaningless. Hence the need for this site and why we are here.

I have no doubt that a poll of AL could show Obama up or one of PA from Ras shows McCain ahead.

I don't understand how so many on both sides can come here and hyper-ventilate about individual results.

On another note:

Given everything going against McHoover these days, it is no wonder the Bradley Effect mythology is so prominent again.

Sean Robertson said...

As one of my favorite local candidates once said, "Yard signs don't vote." Get off your ass and do something to help ensure we win this.

Eric said...

Virginia, Colorado, Ohio, Florida, Nevada

Which one is most likely to flip?

Meg said...

I'll start with I AM a volunteer. I attend meetings, phone-banking, and when I'm able to, go canvassing. I have bought my yard signs from the Obama website.

Why multiple, you ask? Well, I've already had my yard sign stolen from my front yard three times. I placed an order for SEVERAL yard signs 3 weeks ago. I wanted to replenish mine and my neighbors who have also had theirs stolen. However, at last check, my order was still "being processed."

That said, I *DO* believe that active participation in volunteer efforts is probably more important than a yard sign, but for several people working 2 jobs and raising a family, volunteer time is scarce. In overly white neighborhoods, like mine, prominent displays of Obama signs lend a "normalcy" to a candidate who many still see as an "other" so they are important too.

Anyway, my point? I guess I don't really have one.

Virginia Conservative said...

"The whole thing has become so racially charged."

Well, good thing we have you to keep us color blind and fair, PeteKent.

InkStain said...

"Virginia, Colorado, Ohio, Florida, Nevada

Which one is most likely to flip?"

Assuming you mean "flip" in terms of flipping from the last election, not "flip" in terms of who is leading them now:

1) Colorado
2) Nevada
3) Virginia
4) Ohio
5) Florida

Though I could be persuaded to switch 3 and 4

PeteKent said...

"The polls are not picking it up, just as they did not see the big victories that HRC won in OH and PA."

Quite a few polls saw HRC winning by 5-10 points. Without PPP throwing it off, they'd be pretty spot on.



*****

Actually all the maistream polsters missed it and the average was beaten by 50%. HRC more than doubled the perfromace expeected of her in OH.

I expect McCain will have similar performace in the heartland states this year as well.

The "cling" vote will be there for him big. It's payback time.

realistxxx said...

I agree with ink except put FL 4
#4 and OH #5.

eve said...

petekent, you just keep on hoping that racism will win McCain the WH.

You have shown yourself to be delusional, so continue on believing that there is a large group of people out there who are afraid to say that forbidden word, McCain, to a pollster.

brooklynkevin said...

gosh, everyone seems so upset.

My take, for all it's worth, is that keeping the race close keeps our people fired up. If there are 10 yard signs on the street and 1 Obama sign, some McCain supporters may feel overconfident, but the Obama supporters will feel that their vote is really needed. It could be reverse psychology at it's most basic.

boulder-liberal said...

@Sam

I must be an outlier.

I'm 44, and I have voted for all your heroes in the past. Reagan in '84, Bush Senior in '88. I can't imagine ever voting for another Republican. The once proud GOP has been hijacked by the Neo-Cons. Lets face it, Reagan would be kicked out of the Republican Party today.

InkStain said...

Petekent, as usual, making stuff up.

http://www.pollster.com/polls/pa/08-pa-dem-pres-primary.php

The poll average was within 3 points, and many polls had it pretty much right.

Yen said...

To Sam S


Hello. For me, the problem is that as we enter into society, we face superiors who eventually wear out our passion to make a difference in this society. Even if we want to make a difference, the system itself simply beats us down and forces us to think of our own needs first. Then we gradually become cynical of the environment and care less about taking care of others who can use some help. For examples, medical students who enter into medical school with the vision of bettering this world have their hopes destroyed by not only conservative culture of medicine, but also by the problems such as high tuition/student loan. In the end, we're just more inclined to focus our energy to pay the mortgage and the loans. I hope that helps.

malanb5 said...

It does have a psychological effect the same as polling. Its the we're winning or we're losing mentality and also it makes you think about the candidate and the election. I want to see what the effect is on independents is though. If there is a peer pressure effect, I would like to see it in some kind of study. I agree though that it is probably not the best use of campaign funds.

Virginia Conservative said...

Hey PeteKent, what are McCain's chances in New York?

DarienCrow said...

Well from my point of view, the ones most likely to flip are:

Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and New Mexico.

All of them would mean we are becoming a smarter country.

Tito said...

More so than for McCain, many of those who are tempted to vote for Obama no doubt wonder if it is an okay thing to do within their community.

Pssh, what a joke (and wanky "analysis"). If there are actually people out there that have gut check moment at the poll where they think about what candidate is an "okay thing in their community" or cedes their vote to peer pressure, those people should tear up their ballots and walk out of the polling place.

PeteKent said...

Meg makes my point:

"In overly white neighborhoods, like mine, prominent displays of Obama signs lend a "normalcy" to a candidate who many still see as an "other" so they are important too."

This is the problem with the Obama campagin they are approaching this election like a cucus and think that they need only bring there marginal new vote to the polls.

In fact those efforts will be swamped by the latent tide of dislike and resentment that is out there, quite anxious to vote and go to the polls and see Obama lose.

Worse there is zero genuine enthusiasm for Obama as a candidate in the Black community. He has ignored the legitimate concerns of black people and while they will vote for him out of a sense of identity I do not think that will reflect personal enthusiasm for the man.

Unless Obama can make more white people comofortable with him as a general matter, he will lose.

Sedi said...

Eric,
I really don't remember the post, but Glenn_in_CO thought it was going to be close, if I remember correctly. Where are you getting your numbers from? They don't seem totally outlandish, but I do wonder why you think that Denver will only be 55-45 for Obama? I would expect him to have a much wider lead there, but I don't know the city well, so I could easily be wrong. All I really know is: 1. the poll have shown a close race, with a slight edge to Obama, for quite a while and 2. the last night of the convention was basically a huge voter registration and organization effort with tens of thousands of people. My guess -- which is only a guess -- is that Obama has better than 50-50 odds of winning CO.

Perhaps boulder-liberal or pygmy_owl can give us a better picture of the state?

tdc2000 said...

It looks to me like the Obama campaign is making an aggressive move for North Carolina and Florida, given where the candidate himself has been. If either of those states flip, the election is over.

I think a political pundit once said (it might be Charlie Cook or Larry Sabato) that a political observer can tell the state of a campaign often by where the candidates are spending their time.

Obama is not in Michigan or Pennsylvania or even Colorado this weekend. So, I guess his internal polls look good in those places.

Of course, I have no internal access, so I could be wrong.

eve said...

I like yard signs. I find it entertaining to notice which ones my dogs want to mark.

PeteKent said...

Eve nad you keep hoping that racism will not defeat Obama. We are two sides of the same coin.

tkk13above said...

Why is this such a big deal? If you want a yard sign, you can GO ONLINE TO OBAMA'S WEBSITE AND BUY ONE. If I didn't live a building shared by other people I would have ordered one online by now. Why are people so arrogant to think they can just have one for free from the office? If you want a yard sign, buy it. If you have time to volunteer and you live in VA, obviously that is much more valuable to the campaign than buying a freaking yard sign.

InkStain said...

petekent - you could at least have the honesty to acknowledge that you made up numbers before you move on to making up sociological effects.

Uncle Toby said...
This post has been removed by the author.
jack black said...

Why does everybody think it is racist for a white person to vote for McCain, but 95% of black people will vote for Odumbo.

Is this a racial double standard; affirmative action gone wild? Maybe the better nature of man will come out in this election and only 94% ob black people will vote for Odumbo.

Norske-Division said...

Yeah, there might be some silly people who feel "insulted" since they can't get an Obama sign for their yard but whatever. If signs are a bad way of spending money, these people should be told that. Anyone who walks into an Obama campaign office is going to vote for Obama anyway, we need swing voters, not spending money giving schwag to Obama voters. They might be a little mad for a few days, but they'll calm down. I'm confident that the people doing the main strategies know whats best.

Imagine what kind of disaster it would be if every local Obama supporter was making up whatever strategies they thought was best, it would be chaos. It's called a grass-roots organization because it's effective at the grass-root level, not because the grass-root level is controling the top level. I know it seems harsh but that's the truth.

InkStain said...

Nobody thinks it is racist for white people to vote for McCain. Quit making up strawman to beat down.

PeteKent said...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html

Not according to RCP, inkstain. I will only quoting zzrxx or whoever up there .

zzyzx said...

tdc - Obama not being in CO this weekend doesn't mean that much because he was just there. McCain does seem to be spending a lot more time in FL though.

Eric said...

InkStain said...
"Virginia, Colorado, Ohio, Florida, Nevada

Which one is most likely to flip?"

Assuming you mean "flip" in terms of flipping from the last election, not "flip" in terms of who is leading them now:

1) Colorado
2) Nevada
3) Virginia
4) Ohio
5) Florida

Here's my concern:
Obama today estimate:
National +3
1) Colorado +2
2) Nevada +1
3) Virginia Even
4) Ohio -1
5) Florida -1

Meaning a popular vote tie leans McCain and a necessary flip to tip the electoral college only comes with Obama winning the popular vote by a decent margin. I recognize there are factors that make individual states move differently than the whole. I also realize i'm just guessing, but still concerning.

PeteKent said...

Tito has never heard of peer pressure!

InkStain said...

RCP picks and chooses which polls they like and only uses them.

When you pick and choose polls, you forfeit the right to be a reference.

jack black said...

People are posting on this blog that Odumbo will be defeated because of racism. I don't see this at all. He is a left-wing, tax hiking big government, gun grabbing liberal troll. That is why I will vote against him.

But, many people on this blog say people are voting against him because of his race. Yet, they never mention that 12% of the population is voting for him because of his race.

The Real Mike Is Back said...

@ Inkstain - I'd actually flip 4 and 5. I'd put Ohio right at the very bottom of the list. Out of those five, Ohio has the least dynamic economy, the whitest state, and the second oldest (behind Florida.) Great combination of demographics for McCain.

PeteKent said...

Uncle Toby is confused!

he must be one of those crazy old unles we all have living up in the attic . . .

Gerbie said...

jack black said...
I'll take being behind in Michigan and Penn. by 2 points than being behind in VA by 2 points. THE BRADLEY EFFECT. It exists NATE!!!!


Right, this may be racist tendencies but it is not the bradley effect.

InkStain said...

"Obama today estimate:
National +3
1) Colorado +2
2) Nevada +1
3) Virginia Even
4) Ohio -1
5) Florida -1"

538.com has Colorado at +3.5. It's statistically, to this point, one point better for Obama than the national polls, which is why he's far more likely to lose the popular vote but win the EC than McCain is.

McCain has to get to +1 nationally before he's favored in the EC.

Virginia Conservative said...

Blacks voted 80-90% for Strickland and Rendell when they were running against black opponents.

DarienCrow said...

tkk13above said...

"Why is this such a big deal? If you want a yard sign, you can GO ONLINE TO OBAMA'S WEBSITE AND BUY ONE."

Because they are liberals and think that everything should be free.

jack black said...

Gerbie,

I rest my case-

InkStain said...

Regardless of demographics, Obama has polled better in Ohio than Florida.

I doubt he wins either in a close election.

DaWolf said...

@jack black

Why does everybody think it is racist for a white person to vote for McCain, but 95% of black people will vote for Odumbo.

Is this a racial double standard; affirmative action gone wild? Maybe the better nature of man will come out in this election and only 94% ob black people will vote for Odumbo.


90%+ of black people vote democrat anyway. There is no difference.

Virginia Conservative said...

Oh yeah, Cardin got 90% of the black vote when running against Michael Steele.

It's not race, it's party.

jack black said...

Darien,

You couldn't be more correct. The signs are not free and the liberals can't understand this.

Alex S. said...

Is there a Bradley effect when everyone talks about it?

SwingStatePA said...

Still waiting on polling update ...

Interesting news on Rasmussen polls tomorrow, we'll see. I'm in SW PA and anyone that says Obama will easily win PA doesn't know this area well at all - trending more red each presidential cycle, even in Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) which does go Dem,but by smaller and smaller margins every time. Obama will have to win big in Philly to overcome the rest of the state, cause SW PA is not going to help him.

My spouse and I are both registered Dems who voted Kerry last time and are both going McCain. Ditto for most in my family, buy we're all just bitter-clinger Appalachian dwellers...

Wouldn't be surprised if it were Minnesota though. Having spent ten years in a town on the NoDak/Minn border, I predicted that Palin would be a hit up there for a variety of reasons.

The Real Mike Is Back said...

@ Uncle Toby - Don't you mean McCain won't win PA?

@ Jack Black - Who do you think you're really trying to convince with your argument?

Phoeflame said...

There would seem to be a lot of possibilities but I wonder what you think are the reasons that many of you will turn into conservatives as you get older.

A very short memory.

InkStain said...

I have no doubt Palin plays well in northern Minnesota.

Having driven through it a few times lately, I have trouble believing there are 10 voters there.

InkStain said...

"There would seem to be a lot of possibilities but I wonder what you think are the reasons that many of you will turn into conservatives as you get older."

The definition of conservative will change. We'll be the same, but the next generation will have such shocking views that we'll be the cranky old men.

Thad Anderson said...

I actually wrote a similar post on Daily Kos yesterday at around the same time. I think the lack of signs and stickers is a legitimate problem.

Why?

"1) Bumper stickers and signs help convince voters that people like them support a candidate. The fact that Barack Obama is the first African-American presidential candidate makes this factor even more important than usual. For Obama to win in swing states, he needs a lot of visible support, and it can't just be from the two groups that form the core of his base: African-Americans and urban-dwelling college graduates of all races. I apologize if this sounds politically incorrect, but we need to get as many Obama-Biden stickers as possible, on as many middle-aged white people's cars and trucks as possible, as soon as possible. "Obama-Biden" stickers are preferable to the stickers that just say "Obama," because Biden helps Obama appeal to swing voters, older Democratic voters, and voters who are wary of supporting a black candidate.

2) Bumper stickers and signs also help convince voters in traditionally red states that an Obama-Biden victory is possible. One challenge in trying to put new states into play is overcoming the assumption that there's no way a Democratic ticket will win _(insert Virginia, Colorado, North Carolina, or another state which is starting to swing)_. And people tend to gauge how serious a campaign is about their state by the level of resources allocated to it, which is reflected by things like TV ads, signs and stickers."

Does the Obama campaign really want everyone thinking that they don't have a significant presence in swing states? Maybe that strategy will work . . . we'll see. As I discuss in the post, I spoke to campaign staffers in four offices this week, and they were all desparate for signage and stickers.

Tito said...

And PeteKent has never heard of reality.

Norske-Division said...
This post has been removed by the author.
InkStain said...

And thank you to norske-division for giving us such a great example of a concern troll.

jack black said...

I supported everything before I supported nothing!

Eric said...

Inkstain, i hope you're right about Colorado. The 538 numbers include that poll that has Obama up +10, the others are pretty much tied. I'd want confirmation on that poll. it didn't look to be a really solid poll at first glance, no internals.

DarienCrow said...
Well from my point of view, the ones most likely to flip are:

Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, and New Mexico.

All of them would mean we are becoming a smarter country.

First off New Mexico went Republican last time, so it's probably lost in your point. The other states should end up in the Obama column in a tight election. If any of them don't, it will be racism/hockey momism. I'll admit it would be interesting if Obama can flip some and McCain does the same. It could become really confusing.

SwingStatePA said...

I have no doubt Palin plays well in northern Minnesota.Having driven through it a few times lately, I have trouble believing there are 10 voters there.

HaHa - that's so funny. As a graduate of one of the universities up there, I hear that crap all the time, "was it a one room schoolhouse?" Man, it's going to be so fun to vote against the Harvard guy in Nov.

InkStain said...

Colorado was trending ahead of the national average for Obama before that +10 poll.

jack black said...

Here we go again, if Odumbo doesn't win it's racism. Not because he is a left wing, tax hiking, gun grabbing, baby killing democrat.

InkStain said...

"HaHa - that's so funny. As a graduate of one of the universities up there, I hear that crap all the time, "was it a one room schoolhouse?" Man, it's going to be so fun to vote against the Harvard guy in Nov."

Hey, I live in northwester North Dakota. I'm not ragging on unpopulated areas :)

InkStain said...

"Here we go again, if Odumbo doesn't win it's racism. Not because he is a left wing, tax hiking, gun grabbing, baby killing democrat."

Nobody said that. You trolls keep bringing it up, but nobody else is.

Virginia Conservative said...
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Virginia Conservative said...

What if McCain won PA and MI but Obama got VA and NC and swept NM, NV, and CO?

Not entirely impossible given the very different demographics of those regions.

Phoeflame said...

Man, it's going to be so fun to vote against the Harvard guy in Nov.

Good, glad you're making judgements based on personal resentments.

DarienCrow said...

Norske-Division, I can't for the life of me extract any way possible for me to ever vote in any election from your last post.

If I vote at all it's either racist or sexist.

So how about you just allow me to vote on the issues and not really care how you feel about it?

InkStain said...

"What if McCain won PA and MI but Obama got VA and NC and swept NM, NV, and CO?"

All the pundits would come up with a glib, one-line simplification for why their previous simplification of the election was wrong.

DarienCrow said...

And because you just deleted your comment I guess you decided it was a really stupid thing to say.

Virginia Conservative said...

Inkstain--

I'd love for that to happen just so see the reaction of the talking heads.

Virginia Conservative said...
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Virginia Conservative said...

BTW, that scenario produces a +2 EV McCain victory (assuming Obama gets Kerry States-MI and PA, but +IA and NM).

InkStain said...

"BTW, that scenario produces a +2 EV McCain victory."

And my guess is that it only happens in a McCain +2 environment, with Obama's GOTV being epic and well-targeted.

Thad Anderson said...

tkk13above said...
Why is this such a big deal? If you want a yard sign, you can GO ONLINE TO OBAMA'S WEBSITE AND BUY ONE. If I didn't live a building shared by other people I would have ordered one online by now. Why are people so arrogant to think they can just have one for free from the office? If you want a yard sign, buy it. If you have time to volunteer and you live in VA, obviously that is much more valuable to the campaign than buying a freaking yard sign.

Here's why it's such a big deal. No one I know has EVER had to pay a political campaign for a yard sign or bumper sticker before. So when people hear that Obama has raised the most money of any campaign ever, but then when they go into their local office, there are no signs or stickers, and the person behind the desk says that a throwaway bumper sticker costs $3.00 plus shipping and handling . . . that's a problem.

I don't think it is arrogant for people to expect a major party presidential candidate's campaign to have yard signs or bumper stickers . . . and by not having any, Obama's campaign is risking alienating people who think that it is being arrogant. I mean, I ordered the Obama-Biden "first edition" t-shirt the first day it was offered, despite the absurdity of a political campaign advertising its t-shirt as "first edition" - and it still hasn't arrived.

If the campaign is not going to provide materials to local offices, it at least should be able to accomodate online orders.

filistro said...

I'm doing research on a political phenomenon which I'm calling the "Codger Effect." This is when older people tell pollsters they're voting for McCain (their peer) but secretly mark their ballot for the younger, stronger, smarter guy when they're in the polling booth.

The Codger Effect is huge because older people KNOW how much an extra ten years can diminish one's capacity. They see it in themselves, their spouses and their friends, and they're frightened by it.

The Codger Effect will win Florida for McCain. If you don't believe me, you can e-mail my Aunt Glad and she'll tell you all about it ;-)

Norske-Division said...

*Satire*

"Why does everybody think it is racist for a white person to vote for McCain, but 95% of black people will vote for Odumbo."

Because black voters vote on issues. White voters who support McCain are racists. I know it doesn't make any sense, but that's the explanation I have accepted as a Democrat.

And black voters who vote for McCain are also racists, because they are racists against black people and want to betray their own skin color (they are uncle toms). So 92% of black voters vote on issues, except for the ones that vote for McCain, they are racists and they are voting for him because he is white. I know, it's very confusing.

Also, any time that Republicans support a black person, like Clarance Thomas, it is because they are racist. But when they don't support a black person, it is because they are racist. Also, picking Sarah Palin shows that Republicans are sexist.

These opinions might seem like hypocrisy, but they are not. By the time I expressed the one which seemingly contradicted the one previous, I had already forgotten the original one. This is called Doublethink.

*End Satire*

@Inkstain,

Sadly I've seen the opinion that white people who support McCain are racist MANY times. On this site I constantly hear the opinion that "Almost all of the racists are voting for McCain anyway" - and on think progress it's practically a refrain that racist white people are voting for McCain. Just look at the discussion here about the Bradley effect. Some Obama supporters are very ready to bring race into the debate when it suites them. There's no way you could not have noticed this. Thankfully not all Obama supporters spout this kind of stuff off, but too many do and it lowers the level of the debate.

The Real Mike Is Back said...

"What if McCain won PA and MI but Obama got VA and NC and swept NM, NV, and CO?"

It would also give McCain a 2 EV win, 270-268. That's the bottom line.

The Real Mike Is Back said...
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Eric said...

SwingStatePA said...

I'd love your explanation for why you and all of your family vote Dem normally, voted Kerry before and now are going to vote McCain. You said your Appalachia dwellers and you know what I believe you. I do believe there's a decent chance Obama loses this election because of people like you and your kind who cling to religion and guns and racism and th 1950s, wishing America was still the way it was in a time past. Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire. All swing states who want to vote for someone that they think is most like them, which could never be someone with a lot of pigment in their skin. I'm sure you've all convinced yourselves that he doesn't have enough experience and that's why. I bet your family cam here hundreds of years ago and used to have more money than you currently have.

Virginia Conservative said...

Inkstain-

Like I said, entirely within the realm of possibility. I'd love to see Nate or Sean do a post on it.

The rust belt is worlds away from the Atlantic South, so I doubt they would move as a unit.

PeteKent said...

"Obama will have to win big in Philly to overcome the rest of the state, cause SW PA is not going to help him."

Obama did terribly in Philly during the primary and that's why he lost. Black people are voting for him out of identity, but not out of any sense that he represents them.

Obama will predicitably have to do something to energize balck Amercians or McCain's overhwlming support in white America may swamp him.

That is why Yard Sings in middle America are so important. Obama will never win the white vote, but he can put a bigger dent into than he is doing or may lose big.

Sedi said...

Eric,
Yes, you are concerned. You are counting state leads in your numbers that are several days or a week out of date -- a week ago Obama didn't have a lead, or had a very, very small one. You have to be very careful about dates with these things. Plus, there is a fair amount of error in every poll, so making fine comparisons is problematic, at best.

VA Con,
Are you trying to insert facts into the rantings of your fellow conservatives by noting that blacks support Democrats, not black candidates?

dariencrow,
You are so clueless that you can't even troll accurately. Of the states you mention, the most likely McCain pickups, in order, are probably: NH, MI, PA, NM, WI, & MN. At least be a competent troll...

InkStain said...

norske-division: That's hideous logic. A Logic 101 instructor at a community college would flunk you on the spot for saying it.

People arguing that white racists are voting for McCain isn't the same as saying white voters for McCain are racist.

InkStain said...

"Obama did terribly in Philly during the primary and that's why he lost. Black people are voting for him out of identity, but not out of any sense that he represents them."

The choice between McCain and Obama is not remotely the same as the choice between Obama and Clinton.

You know this.

Virginia Conservative said...

"VA Con,
Are you trying to insert facts into the rantings of your fellow conservatives by noting that blacks support Democrats, not black candidates?"

I'm trying to help McCain win the election without racial B.S.

Eric said...

Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire

I wasn't referring to everybody in those states, just the 2-10% that won't vote for the Black guy, though they don't have aproblem voting for a Democrat if he's white. This is also not an issue for those 6 states, it's societal, those just happen to be swing states where it could be a concern.

Virginia Conservative said...

He did badly in Philly because he refused to pay "street money" and Hillary had Rendell and the Mayor of Philly (I forget his name) on his side.

McCain won't have that. PA is the bluest of the rustbelt states, just like OH is the reddest.

rdweber said...

Hey mike,

How far does your district lean R? Mine is about 73D-27R (Mn SD64B, Highland Park/Groveland, St Paul). The Repub challenger has oodles of signage. When this same challenger ran in 2006, he lost 68-32. so, the signs might improve the race by ~5%...or majority voters might just stay home in a safe district...

Chris Carlson said...

All you Obama latecoming bandwagon-hoppers shoulda been like me and ordered your yard sign 18 months ago, mwahahahahaaaaa!

fiIistro said...

Fuck all you conservative douchebags. You all can lick my clit and fuck a goat!

thisniss said...

"The only concern I have is that if Obama gets a huge number of people to register to vote, polling centers on election night might not be able to cope with all the queues of voters and people will be left standing in line when voting ends."

EARLY VOTING! If your state has it, DO it! Volunteer to help others do it! Early voting is a winner, an easy way to give a huge advantage to Obama. And in some states (like mine, NC) you can combine new registration with early voting, for twice the bang.

If anyone doubts the power of early voting, please review the results of the primaries. Obama won North Carolina before a single election day vote was cast, based solely on the strength of his Early Vote turn-out. Sure, anyone in line on election day proper has to be allowed to vote. But why mess with all that? Hie thee to an Early Vote stop ASAP! (I believe some states begin as early as next week? NC doesn't start until October 16)

PeteKent said...

Guns, patriotism and Palin. Jack Black is right. With the exception of NM, Mccain will hold the Rocky Mountian West and will threaten in WA and Or.

PA has become the new OH

WA will become the new PA

And OR the new NJ

On election day the map will glow red.

Many are just being polite and respectful to Obama right now, being impressed with his articulateness and good hygiene.

The Real Mike Is Back said...

Mike Nutter is the mayor of Philadelphia. And in the general election, Obama is definitely paying street money.

At least 80% of Hillary voters in PA in the primary will vote for Obama. But you keep discounting that, Pete. Just don't act so surprised on election day.

Clandestiny said...

I agree that lawn signs give passive supporters the feeling that they are somehow helping with the campaign. People who believe in true democracy know that getting involved is the only way to invoke change. I'm glad there are no lawn signs available. Maybe people will finally feel the pressure to get involved.

Deadpixel said...

I think they should ban people that leak false poll information without providing some kind of link or confirmation. It does neither side any good.

Virginia Conservative said...

"WA will become the new PA"

Yeah man, I know when I think of the Seattle-Tacoma metro area, I think "Guns, God, and Gays".

Seth said...

Amen. Yard signs are a complete waste of money, even in local campaigns.

PeteKent said...

Swingstate, Youa re so right.

The eltisit attitude of these university liberals is what is creating a huge animus against Obama and a real desire to get to those polls and punish him.

SwingStatePA said...

Good, glad you're making judgements based on personal resentments.

Well, I'm not voting based upon personal resentments,but I can have fun mocking the oh-so-superior tone of some of the other guy's supporters who just can't help from insulting the the people they supposedly want win over.

The last successful presidential Dem candidate was Bill Clinton who connected with blue-collar voters and rural voters, which is why he won.

Mule Rider said...

Another day, another 538 thread goes right down the shitter....

Adam said...

I'm sure it has been mentioned before, but it is easy to make your own yard sign with the PDF's available on Obama's website.

sporcupine said...

boulder-liberal wrote "Let's face it, Reagan would be kicked out of the Republican Party today."

No, he'd walk.

Reagan galvanized all those votes by saying Americans are strong and competent and should get on with big work, and a government that wanted to mill around and build on people's fears should be replaced.

Obama and Obama's coalition are now the place for folks who think that way.