We'll have polling data rolling in all day, of course, but the very early returns suggest that the public may not have responded in the way John McCain might have liked to his announcement yesterday that he was "suspending" his campaign to attend to the financial crisis.
Two polls have been released so far that were conducting work in the field yesterday. The Research 2000 poll has Obama jumping from +4 to +6, on the strength of a +7 in the daily sample conducted yesterday. And Rasmussen Tracking has him moving from a +2 to a +3, his largest lead over McCain since 9/6.
Gallup, Hotline, et. al. may well turn turn out to show McCain gains, so we'll see how these numbers look in a few hours. It should be a fun day for poll-watchers.
UPDATE: Hotline has Obama at a +4, down from a +6 yesterday. Battleground, which as you may have noticed has a pretty strong (3-4 point) Republican lean, has him at -1, one point better than yesterday.
9.25.2008
AM Trackers Suggest Poor Reaction to McCain Announcement
@ 9:34 AM
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297 comments
"I don't give a crap about a 4 day loss on Wall Street that's made up later. I'm thinking long term here."
You probably don't want to do that. It'll depress you.
One thing that cracks me up about conservatives is their "if we say it confidently and repeatedly, it's true" tactic.
The problem is that they've convinced themselves of it. If Obama were down as much as McCain is now, and if Obama were making the rookie mistakes that make Mike Dukakis look like FDR instead of it being McCain screwing the pooch, Democrats would be talking about their hopes for McCain's governing style and basically acknowledging reality. Why can't conservatives do the same?
If you're a conservative and you really *believe* McGovernCain is winning, let that belief be enough for you. The election isn't going to change because Nate's model says it's going to. You can just smugly style at the impending victory while knowing we're all deluding ourselves with this whole 'statistics' and 'reality' thing. You'll have the last laugh.
Seriously, there's no need to accuse Nate of rigging the model to show Obama ahead. He'd have no reason to do that, because changing the model to say Obama's ahead wouldn't actually put Obama ahead.
Why can't conservatives understand the basic principle of reality?
I think Obama did well to play this "President must be able to handle more than one thing at a time." According to CNN, the University of Mississippi has made no move to postpone things as scheduled for tomorrow.
As Paris Hilton put it: "See you at the debates, bitches."
No they have to delay the vote on the Bill Until Saturday. That's all.
inkstain,
MI poll tie is an outlier. Look at the trend and averages over the last 2 weeks.
NC is going with the thr trend. The previous 4 NC polls avergaed to M+1 before Ras today. It's going with the trend.
Folks please listen carefully:
According to CNBC Paulson has been spending more time this morning on what's happening in the credit markets than the bailout!!!
Commercial paper market is a mess!!
Rumors abound about Chinese Govt apparently asking their banks not to do any short term lending with ANY US banks. This is being denied as false, but this is causing fear in the liquidity arena!!
That's why Paulson is spending more time on this than the bailout. They bailout will take time to implement and work BUT this problem right now could UNWIND the market by tomorrow.
There is a decent probability that Black Friday or Black Monday could be upon us!!
Michigan is 4.7 for Obama.
InkStain said...
Bigger news: The MIchigan poll or the NC poll?
Both are just single polls, but to me Michigan is a bit more important. NC is window dressing for Obama, Michigan would be a new lease on life for McCain.
How is it that in the past week or so the polls in Michigan are so nuts? Makes no sense. Best guess is to average thme the way Nate does, but who knows. O +9 O +10 M +3 Even. The North Carolina poll just shows if the elction were held today Obama would win every swing state, even the ones he has no business winning, but Michigan can at least give RepubliCONs hope. you see the quiet MCCain supporters trickel into the conversation with "did you see the Michigan tie". They are looking for something to latch onto. Certainly that's something. If the Midwest has a "Bradley Effect" or whatever you want to call it, that could tip the elction with so many electoral votes avaialable in swing states up there.
marie: Paris Hilton should show up and offer to act as place-holder for McCain in case he doesn't show and doesn't send the Northern Mother Huntress to stand in for him either.
"inkstain,
MI poll tie is an outlier. Look at the trend and averages over the last 2 weeks."
You are probably right, but that's two pro-McCain outliers in Michigan in a few days. That's the same way the VA and NC turnarounds began.
McCain surge continues...
McCain & Palin don't need to campaign, run ads
this elections is over
McCain landslide !!
@Finbarr,
"
McCain should learn from this. Personally I hope he doesn't take my advice though as i'm an Obama fan and want to get rid of the type of divisive politics that Bush and the Republicans stand for."
Wow. Can you look at the posts on this site and really believe that we are all going to come together Kumbaya, for an Obama Administration? "Devisive Politics" are now the norm.
Jamie,
You wrote about Ohio saying "when
the recent "trend" in OH is clearly towards McCain (by trend, I mean the
results of more recent polls vs. older polls)"
Just a note - the more recent poll by the Ohio newspapers is not a good representative sample. It was only a poll measuring newspaper readers in Ohio who 1) were aware of the poll, 2) knew what site to go to so they could vote and 3) who had online access to the poll.
So the methodology is somewhat flawed. It does NOT represent all Ohioans, like those who do not have PCS, or those who do not know how to go the site or those who don't read the big newspapers in the state.
McCain probably does have a lead in Ohio but that's not a very good poll by which to reach a conclusion.
axmxz: Now *that* debate would get some great ratings. :)
Real Joe: ...Feeling the "Joementum" much? Sorry, couldn't resist.
"Wow. Can you look at the posts on this site and really believe that we are all going to come together Kumbaya, for an Obama Administration? "Devisive Politics" are now the norm."
To be fair, Obama has been pretty good on the non-divisiveness scale. It's his supporters that keep it going.
"Both are just single polls, but to me Michigan is a bit more important. NC is window dressing for Obama, Michigan would be a new lease on life for McCain."
It depends on what it means about surrounding states. Technically, a MI-for-NC trade nets McCain 2 Electoral Votes (17-15). But I'd think if NC is REALLY Obama+2 (and I don't think it is), that would mean that Virginia was pretty much a done deal for Obama. And a VA/NC-for-MI trade is a +11 net for Obama. On the other hand, if a weak Michigan means that Obama's also in trouble in PA (and OH, but that's not a "loss" for Obama) a VA/NC-for-MI/PA trade is pretty bad for Obama (-10) and would require a win somewhere else - FL, IN, MO.
This is probably my biases talking, but I think it's by far most likely that both MI and NC stay put, but that NC has a better chance of flipping than MI.
Have Rasmussen done any recent shifts to the Dem column to account for the rise in Obama stock or what?
"Have Rasmussen done any recent shifts to the Dem column to account for the rise in Obama stock or what?"
O+3 nationally, O+2 in NC.
Wait until the full impact of this is measured. ;)
Personally I hope Obama wins without OH. He takes Kerry+IA+NM+CO and VA(bonus.
OH will be a dinosaur soon as their demographics and economy have not moved to keep up with the trends of the rest of America and the USA ofthe future. The USA of the next 50 years is going to be more like VA,NC,NM,NV,
Don't worry, I'm going to keep campaiging so I can fix the economy with higher capital gains taxes, higher income taxes, higher death taxes, higher dividends taxes, higher corporate taxes, higher payroll taxes... did I miss anything there?
And if that doesn't work, we'll spark a trade war by renegotiating NAFTA! That will fix things for sure.
And don't forget my $1 trillion in new spending! The government knows how to spend your money, even if you don't
I'm Barack Obama, and I approved this message.
We need hope and change and results! Just like at all the good this earmark of mine did!
Without my grant, my campaign volunteers would have had to work for a living instead of stealing taxpayer money, and the criminal investigators would have nothing to investigate. Can we raise taxes to pay for more of this positive government action? Yes We Can!
I'm Barack Obama, and I approved this message.
Is it possible that attempting to analyze Sen. McCain's thought processes in suspending his campaign is a case of overthinking the problem? Throughout his campaign, Sen. McCain has continually shot from the hip, making it up as he goes along. Why should this be different? Sure, he probably discusses it beforehand with his brain trust, but it's doubtful any would be there if they'd ever said "No" to Big John.
"No they have to delay the vote on the Bill Until Saturday. That's all." - Vanessa
Excellent point and I am a supporter. Sorry for my misread.
Your idea is logical. If suggested to the Republicans and McCain campaign, they would pull out another excuse not to do so. They do not want logic. They only want to win.
Power to these people has always been the god they worship. Principle? That is for suckers.
Cancelling this debate and possibly the VP debate is what they want. The risk of discussing the issues in the same room with Obama compounds the situation they will be forced to confront with no index cards.
They risk coming off as petulant children if they disregard logic like yours. This move is dripping with cynicism and the people are smarter than Republican operatives think.
Hey - tomthress - law of independent events - if the first two polls where just noise you'd expect McCain to be flat in the other two polls
Palin gets extension until AFTER debate to reveal personal finances
http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5h4mRsdq8NbF7h4a0da8W64D-suoQD93DQHCG0
Don't worry my massive tax hikes--taxes on your income, taxes on your capital gains, taxes on your investments, taxes on healthcare, taxes on your payroll--that will fix EVERYTHING!
I'm Barack Obama and I approve this message.
"Rasmussen NC: Obama 49 McCain 47"
Wow!!! I can see why McCain pulled another crazy Ivan. The electorate is clearly swinging toward Obama and McCain has to do something, anything to shift the momentum.
The danger: how many crazy Ivan's can you pull before the public decides that you ARE crazy Ivan.
Sam thornton,
PBS McNeil Lehrer has being doing a week long profile of Obama and McCain. On the one about decision making. All McCains friends describe him as impulsive,shoot fro the hip. While Obama is described as pragmatic,informatiom gatherer, hears pro and dissent opinions and then a firm decision maker. One is presidential, Obama and one is not McCain. Impulsive and shooting from the hip is the last thing you want in a president.
I'll steal taxpayer money to fund my stupid college volunteers so they don't have to actually work for a living!
I'm Barack Obama and I approve this message!
OH the Republicon trolls are getting angry as their slim hopes slide away so we make up childish profiles. Yes, this fits the demeanor of your candidate...petulent!
Let's all check where our good friend Kerry was at this point last year...
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Sep25.html
DAMN! ONLY 207 EVS?!?!?! And the ONLY state Kerry was doing better in exactly 4 years ago was Massachusetts?!
Obama has this in the bag, folks. None of McBush's ploys will work.
From Above my Paygrade
“... Even if he has to step down as the nominee he would rather be in congress doing his job....”
Sounds like you’ve been reading too much McCain campaign literature.
McCain would rather see Cindy in bed with Uncle Ho’s ghost than lose this election.
When will Obama and McCain be at the Capitol?
This is just a CIA conspiracy to give Obama AIDS!
War,
They thought the deadline was Oct 4th...How incompetent are these people or ar they lying again. Is there something that they don't want brought up in a debate question. Afterthe deeabate they can put Caribou Barbie back in her fortress of solitude.
inkstain, the McCain lead in Ohio is much smaller than Obama´s lead in Pennsylvania and Michigan.
See the polls.
Obama is up by 4.7 points in Michigan, by 3 in PA and McCain is only by 1.6 in Ohio.
Is there a way to get rid of these assholes?
@InkStain said...
To be fair, Obama has been pretty good on the non-divisiveness scale. It's his supporters that keep it going.
Good point Ink, but from what I have seen over the last 18 years --- there are not a lot of Americans that differentiate between the actions and views of a Candidate and the actions and views of the candidate's supporters. Perception is everything.
"Don't worry my massive tax hikes--taxes on your income, taxes on your capital gains, taxes on your investments, taxes on healthcare, taxes on your payroll--that will fix EVERYTHING!"
Hey jackoff, didn't you listen to President Bush last night? there was TOO MUCH money in the american system and it all had to be invested somewhere, and everyone chose to put it into the housing market. The excess money CAUSED the problem. Higher taxes is good, since the government can spend the money in diversified markets, like energy, infrastructure, etc, instead of having the entire private sector blow their wad in one sector. Can't you put two and two together? Taxes are too fucking low, and it isn't good for the economy.
McCain's offer to suspend the campaign and postpone the debate sounded about as serious and substantive as Terri Garr's advertising gimmick in Mr Mom where Schooner Tune declared it wouldn't raise prices during "this national crisis. It's a load of hooey.
If ever there were a pair of results that make you go hmmm they are Epic/MRA finding Obama up 10 in Michigan at the same time NBC/Mason Dixon finds the race tied in Michigan.
Epic/MRA is usually pretty believeable but the internals on its 9/22 poll don't sound accurate at all.
RCP has a link to a Franklin & Marshall Opinion Research Center Terry Madonna 9/22 poll showing McCain ahead by 2 nationally.
otf, exactly what i was thinking. There is something damning in those financial records, that Palin absolutely doesnt want to have to address during the debate.
Shadowguidex is right. The central Government is much more intelligent about how to spend your own money than the great unwashed masses in flyover country. Under my expert plan, I'll steal your money and then spend it for you on harebrained schemes to employ my college volunteers so they don't have to do real work for a living!
So when I steal half your income, just remember, I'm doing it for your own good.
I'm Barack Obama and I approve this message.
The latest stunt is FANTASTIC NEWS!!! For John McCain!!!
couchpotato, thats interesting to see what a lead Bush had this late in the race.
Insight, the two polls are valid.
But if you takes all the polls in Michigan after the convention, Obama leads by 4.7 points in the state.
EPIC-MRA are a Michigan pollster like MRG.
The last Fox News/Rasmussen was Obama up by 7 and the last Quinnipiac was Obama by 4 and it take more than 1200 LV.
The Republican trolls are bumming. McCain is losing. haha.
John McCain = EPIC FAIL
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080925/ap_on_el_pr/mccain
McCain's garbagosity won't work. He has to show up for the debate. It is completely unnecessary for Obama and McCain to be in Washington Friday night, whether it take until Monday or not. They can fly back over Saturday and Sunday, but their debate being postoned is silly. MCCain has no voice on the matter anyway, he probably knows less about the economy than 80+% of the Senate, so what exactly does he need to add? Leadership, okay you're there today, you can fly back on Saturday. The only problem for Obama is there is a chance if the RepubliCONs play this wrong that the House RepubliCONs will imply that they're not that close to a deal Friday afternoon and all of the media and finace folks start acting paranoid a few hours before the debate. Then McCain has faux-strong ground to claim he was right and either isn't going to the debate or doesn't want to be there because it's not putting the "country first". This is absolute BS, but the country tends to eat that shit up if it's played right by the RepubliCONs. We will see.
Where are the Nevada polls? There have only been 3 taken in September, and they all had a slim (+1, +1, +3) McCain lead. I want some more.
Worth noting on the hypocrisy front: Now that Fox News has Obama 6 points ahead and Rasmussen is issuing good Obama numbers, we are not hearing the usual whines from the left about how those polling operations are tools of the GOP, biased, etc.
Now, if in October Fox News and Rasmussen have favorable McCain numbers, look for the usual leftist complaints about bias, cooked polls, etc. to resurface. You can count on it.
One wonders if Obama will be lured into spending money in WV. I doubt he'd spend much there given the Bradley effect and demographics. If Obama won WV he wouldn't need it since he'd be sweeping the nation.
Re: Michigan...
I remember in 2000 when the polls between Gore and Bush were neck and neck, and in the end it broke for Gore by 5%. Michigan isn't the easiest state to poll. I don't think Michigan is in danger of falling into the McCain campaign barring something catastrophic.
"RCP has a link to a Franklin & Marshall Opinion Research Center Terry Madonna 9/22 poll showing McCain ahead by 2 nationally."
Republican Controlled Politics (RCP) is really scraping the bottom of the barrel to try to find polls that put McCain ahead.
I looked at the internals on that one. They only have a 41-35 ID advantage. And they show only 73% of Democrats supporting Obama?
Sorry, not buying it.
If McCain really wanted to suspend politics and his campaign he would close all the offices and keep his surrogates off the cable shows.
I'm betting the road trip report tells us the the offices are open and no staff or volunteers have been told to suspend their campaign activities.
Mr Insight, i´m not a leftist.
And i´m not an Obama supporter.
First Obama line of the debate tomorrow night:
"Senator McCain, good to see you. I'm glad you could make it."
Don't worry Charles, once I'm elected I'll re-instate the fairness doctrine with the help of my leftist allies in Congress and conduct a full investigation of RCP, Fox News, and the National Review for signs of partisanship and racism. Then we can move to shut them down, for the good of the country.
I'm Barack Obama and I approve this message.
Darío said...
Insight, the two polls are valid.
But if you takes all the polls in Michigan after the convention, Obama leads by 4.7 points in the state.
EPIC-MRA are a Michigan pollster like MRG.
The last Fox News/Rasmussen was Obama up by 7 and the last Quinnipiac was Obama by 4 and it take more than 1200 LV.
I think the reason some of the polling is all over the place is this is a particularly hard year to poll, unlike 2004. You have demographic groups that are voting in a somewhat more polarized fashion. You have 2004, 2006, and 2008 to try to guess Voter ID for this election. It's hard. Some are leaning to the last Presidential election for insight into the voter breakdown in this one. Others are favoring new registration and trend. The VOter ID guess and attempt to poll demographics and regions accurately gives the pollsters difficulty in getting it right. I wouldn't assume that the average of all of them is necessarily right, although it's the best guess
we can come up with. There's a chance oe poll is very accurate and another is totally off based on all of these factors. This would be cause for hope for the McCain campaign that maybe those polls favoring them are more accurate.
"They only have a 41-35 ID advantage."
Dems over Repubs? That's a bigger Party ID gap than Rasmussen's current weights (D +5.5). That's not completely implausible. Obama's 73% support from Dems is much more unlikely though.
"I'm Barack Obama and I approve this message."
The Republican trolls are very scared now. I guess they're losing confidence in their "maverick" -- just like the voters are. ;)
Mrinsight,
I always regarded Rasmussen as pretty good. Fox I take with a massive, massive pinch of salt because it is nothing less than a Republican spin machine, and of course it isn't a professional polling company. I still don't trust it (although it may be right - a stopped clock is still right two times a day).
Worth noting on the hypocrisy front: Now that Fox News has Obama 6 points ahead and Rasmussen is issuing good Obama numbers, we are not hearing the usual whines from the left about how those polling operations are tools of the GOP, biased, etc.
even a stopped clock tells the right time twice a day*
*I'm referring to the pollsters btw, not you. You're closer to a clock with no hands.
If the media were all a bunch of militant leftists, as conservatives keep whining, you'd think the right would welcome the fairness doctrine. It's very telling that they don't.
If one considers two polls of the same state at the same time 10 points apart both valid then what is the point of polling at all? Any close state will by definition be within 10 points. And one doesn't need polling to have a good inkling about atates where a candidate is in fact more than 10 points ahead.
Why are all the douchebaggy posts like "Barack Obama" above posting crap on here always from naive conservative hacks? I very occasionally see some moron liberal making douchebag posts, but yeah, generally it's the conservatives. Hey bro, take a look at Vcon's classiness and take a memo. You're acting like a toddler who wants a cookie.
Some twerp in the Bush administration even threatened action against a Presbyterian church in Pasadena that was allowing the ACLU to speak on their premises, while evangelical churches all over the country were bringing in candidates of only one party to speak to their congregations, a clear violation of the tax code against religious organizations being involved as partisans.
It was All Saints Episcopal Church. While quite liberal, it is also the largest Episcopal parish west of the Mississippi River. It's also a wealthy and well-connected parish, and the IRS was foolish to try and take it on.
If one considers two polls of the same state at the same time 10 points apart both valid then what is the point of polling at all? Any close state will by definition be within 10 points. And one doesn't need polling to have a good inkling about atates where a candidate is in fact more than 10 points ahead.
ditch the ones on the ousides either way, average the middle ones. Polling is all an educated guess anyway as turnout can vary by way more than the MOE.
SUSA-PA: Obama 50, McCain 44.
Noteworthy crosstab: Both candidates are only in the high-70s among their respective parties, which is probably an aberration.
shadowguidex said...
Why are all the douchebaggy posts like "Barack Obama" above posting crap on here always from naive conservative hacks? I very occasionally see some moron liberal making douchebag posts, but yeah, generally it's the conservatives. Hey bro, take a look at Vcon's classiness and take a memo. You're acting like a toddler who wants a cookie.
Because with rare exceptions (such as VC), conservatives are classless pieces of crap. They sneer at intelligence, laugh at education, and call those of us who are capable of seeing more than one side of an argument "flip-floppers" and "moral relativists". They can't grasp the complexity of life, so they constantly seek to simplify. That simplicity comes out in their posts.
That's the simple explanation.
new post
"Both candidates are only in the high-70s among their respective parties, which is probably an aberration."
Huh, I don't know that I've ever seen a poll anywhere that had McCain in the 70s among Republicans. If you're a Bradley Effect believer, this is worrisome for Obama ("undecided" Dems are likely to vote McCain), although it's noteworthy that he's at 50% even with that.
But what's up with McCain's low Republican support? Just one of those quirky things or some sign of real trouble for McCain?
bryan,
With 1.1 million more Dems tha nRepub if Obama pulls the same party % as MCcain it's lights out. Obama also had a small lead in Indie's
Obama is getting 84% AA that's lower than Kerry.
Here's your Palin evisceration of the day, courtesy of Glenn Greenwald at Salon.com.
And a sound-byte from hilzoy: "Sarah Palin has been described as a quick study. But she has been surrounded by briefers for nearly three weeks, and she's still completely unable to string together an intelligent thought on the mortgage crisis."
Has anyone here considered that Obama's ground gain actually may be finally moving the needle? The man has spent hundreds of millions on it, it should be having some impact now.
Until proven otherwise Battleground has been the best poll at predicting the National vote in every presidential election since 92. Right now they show McCain up 1 with 6% undecided. Unless the other polling companies figured out something new they're not as reliable.
The best pollster for National tracking is Rasmussen.
We've just got to make sure that the VP debate happens and the election is in the bag.
Seriously. The woman's unscripted speech is a caricature of syntax and a war crime against style. She's incoherent.
McCain MUST drop her from the ticket. He simply MUST.
Wisconsin
R2000 - Obama 49, McCain 43 Obama +6
WI is not gonna be a battleground state. MN will also stay BLUE - IMHO.
all looking fine for this point in time...
RR Obama +2 in NC & +3 national tracker with the reweightied party id #'s is a real pleasant way to start the day, no ?
NEMOV
keep trying to sell your specious claim that the Battleground tracker is the ONLY poll that has it right...
where is your proof ???
your facts are not substantiated, just an unsupported claim of infallibility...
This election cycle is like no other in many ways.
furthermore, past FINAL performance is no indication of future MID_CYCLE estimation performance either.
there is no objective way to prove or measure mid-cycle polling accuracy - it is a guesstimate.
all a reasonable person can do is scrutinize the internals [which BATTLEGROUND hides from site] and compare/average across the board.
BTW - you are confusing Battleground state polls with this Battleground tracker...
they are 2 different entities. plus the outlier that is Battleground Tracker is sketchy in how they choose to poll on some days - not every day - in a semi-random fashion + the sample is miniscule - AND NO INTERNALS !!!
just a topline chart - what are they hiding ? hhhmmmm
pwned
Bill Frist on John Kerry taking time from the campaign to offer a helpful vote in 2004 to pass an important bill:
"He deserves no credit or credence for such a move. He parachutes into Washington after NOT being here for a year and a half and he wants the American people to see it as leadership? Please."
I wonder if Frist said the same thing about McCain yesterday? Bet he didn't. Define "hypocrisy"?
This is all expectations management by McCain. He creates the perception of being afraid to debate; blogs, media, and Obama smell blood in the water; McCain comes and turns in a good performance, "wins" debate. This is designed to serve as a counter-narrative to the perception of Obama as great orator but poor debater. Mark my words!
Gallup
Tied at 46...
Gallup -
O 46
M 46
What the fuck, Gallup?
"Gallup
Tied at 46..."
Well, so much for Nate's theory that McCain's stunt hurt McCain in the polls last night. Two up (three if you count Battleground), two down. Looks like just so much noise.
If I were McCain, I would pull out of IA and send the resources to defend IN and make an effort in OH.
McCain should pull out of MN entirely: the locals there are seeing it as more of a prop up of Coleman's campaign than his own. Plus, he has been scaling back for a few weeks now.
WI is a week from a lost hope for McCain. Abandon the western front in the Midwest and retreat eastward to defend turf and possibly pull something off in PA. PA is fading fast because the UDs have been halved in the past week and trending Obama.
The OH, western PA, and IN triangle is becoming the bunker in the Midwest for McCain he needs to concentrate on. MN, WI, MI, and IA are solidly blue within a week and spending money there is useless.
Stunning that Gallup is tied, but of all the trackers Gallup is the wild child - jumping all over the place.
McCain also needs to defend NC, VA, and FL, he had real problems there.
"MN, WI, MI, and IA are solidly blue within a week and spending money there is useless."
I don't think I'd lump Michigan in with the other three. There have been 3 polls now that have shown McCain actually ahead in MI, which is 3 more than have shown him ahead in MN, WI, IA, and PA combined. If he's going to pick off a Kerry state, it's most likely going to be one of (in order of likelihood) NH, MI, or PA, with PA being FAR less likely than the other two.
"If one considers two polls of the same state at the same time 10 points apart both valid then what is the point of polling at all?"
It's more nuanced than that. If you understood statistics, you'd understand why your question doesn't make sense. Polls are data points. Then aren't gospel taken on their own.
First, there's the bias introduced by sampling assumptions. In order to get a "representative sample," you have to make assumptions about what the population looks like and acts like. If your assumption is off, your poll will be off for one side or the other. Everybody's assumption is at least a little off.
Second, you have the margin of error. If it's +/-3, then all you are saying with your polling results is that there is a 95% chance that the real number (if you were taking the entire population, not just a sample) is somewhere within a six point range, even if your sampling assumption is perfect.
So take two polls of Michigan. A +10 and a -3.
One using a sampling assumption that doesn't push undecideds very hard, which means independents (who trend McCain) don't have to answer. You've just cost McCain two points. So your +10 is really a +8, and the marign of error means it really is just saying "there's a 95% chance the real number is between +5 and +11."
Now you take a poll that pushes independents hard. Though independents will break for McCain, the reality is that if you haven't made up your mind yet, there's a good chance you won't actually vote (even if you think you will). By pushing independents harder, you are now overstating McCain's support by two points.
So now an even poll is actually O+2. Then your MOE means it could be anywhere from -1 to +5.
So one poll says -1 to +5, one says +5 to +11.
Where do they intersect? +5. Which just happens to be almost exactly the polling average for Michigan.
We can say with confidence that the polling is showing a solid but not insurmountable lead for Obama in Michigan.
North Carolina, baby!! I been sayin.
Obama/Biden rally in Greensboro, NC on Saturday, to celebrate a strong debate performance Friday night. That makes 2 trips for each to the Tar Heel state in the past 2 weeks. +2 in NC from Rasmussen = more like a +4-5% lead, given cell phone and "Obama voter" undersampling in NC in general.
We are SO going to win this state. McCain's field offices and paid staff just came in this week. Obama's have been here for most of 2008. Dems have about 1/2 mil new registrations. Reps have about 100,000. This is a basketball state, and Obama's got the full court press.
Adam said...
That would have been TV station error. We got an order killing ALL McCain spots as of 4pm (CT) last night.
Did you get that order from McCain talking on his cell phone in the CBS Studios' green room as the staffers were applying his makeup preparing him for his interview with Katie Couric?
Jamie,
As Aaron pointed out, the trend adjustment doesn't include Ohio polls because it measures the national numbers. This is because the trend measurement is the method for incorporating national polls, which are more frequent that polls for any individual state. Notice that the trend line looks similar to the charts from pollster.com and RCP, so it is difficult to see how Nate can be very biased in this respect.
You are correct that not "all" the polls are favoring Obama. Apologies for my imprecision, but I only meant to imply that there was a significant trend in Obama's favor that would explain his improvement in the projection. I was addressing your point that the projection "keeps bouncing suspiciously whenever his indicators get too close to predicting a McCain victory." It isn't suspicious when you consider that polls are showing significant movement toward Obama. It is true that Ohio polls still favor McCain, but the whole purpose of the projection is to take other factors into consideration, such as the national trend, which in theory (a theory you are free to disagree with) will predict the movement of the state polls once they catch up to the more frequent national polls. As for Quinnipiac, you'll notice that they are consistently given greater weight, partly because they consistently use large sample sizes. It would be gaming the system to give them less weight just because they disagree with other polls in the state.
Apologies to Nate if anything I've explained is off, but I think the general idea is accurate.
The only possible reason why McBush might be needed in Washington DC is to convince some of his fellow Nero-Conservatives (they like to fiddle around while the U.S. economy is burning - a fire they helped to start - under the guise of free-market, laissez-faire economic "principles") to work to solve this economic crisis and support the associated legislation.
McBush needs to get back to the campaign and debate to finally discuss the issues. Let the congress do its work. (He hasn't been involved for more than 166 days, anyway). Now is not the time to grand-stand and jump in at the last minute to claim all of the credit for none of the work.
GRAMPY McCain is on the outs. He dissed Letterman last night, that was really stupid.
Check this out:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xkcFZzNNcKI
Carl Nyberg said...
AxmxZ has a good point about McCain being wild.
The media should go back and look at McCain's role in starting the most deadly shipboard fire in U.S. Navy history.
McCain's jet blast caused the rocket pod on the other aircraft to cook off,
C'Mon man! I take it you've never worked on an aircrcaft carrier... they are industrial accidents waiting to happen.
This rumour is not based on any fact whatever.
You don't need to make shit up about McCain. There's enough real stuff out there to focus on.
Dru said...
CHARLES: QUIT LINKING TO YOUR STUPID BLOG. NOBODY CARES. NOBODY GOES THERE. NOBODY IS GOING TO CLICK ON IT. ITS SPAMMING AND ITS ANNOYING
___________________________________
Charles, I love your Blog, please keep the posts coming, I go there all the time
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