We'll have polling data rolling in all day, of course, but the very early returns suggest that the public may not have responded in the way John McCain might have liked to his announcement yesterday that he was "suspending" his campaign to attend to the financial crisis.
Two polls have been released so far that were conducting work in the field yesterday. The Research 2000 poll has Obama jumping from +4 to +6, on the strength of a +7 in the daily sample conducted yesterday. And Rasmussen Tracking has him moving from a +2 to a +3, his largest lead over McCain since 9/6.
Gallup, Hotline, et. al. may well turn turn out to show McCain gains, so we'll see how these numbers look in a few hours. It should be a fun day for poll-watchers.
UPDATE: Hotline has Obama at a +4, down from a +6 yesterday. Battleground, which as you may have noticed has a pretty strong (3-4 point) Republican lean, has him at -1, one point better than yesterday.
9.25.2008
AM Trackers Suggest Poor Reaction to McCain Announcement
@ 9:34 AM
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FIRST !
great stuff Nate
What happened to 'country first'??
Why is McCain running from this election when things aren't going well for him???
I think Gov Palin should speak to the press about....err, nevermind...
Yawn - I could just as easily ask why 538.com (The Nate Silver Oracle)keeps
bouncing suspiciously whenever his indicators get too close to predicting a
McCain victory. Manipulation? Plots? Intrigue? Is Nate shamelessly manipulating
his spreadsheet to fluff for Obama? we'll never know. Maybe he is handweighting
polls that he likes vs. ones he doesn't?
But let me offer more than the vagaries that Nate offers. Why, in his Ohio
model, is the Quinnipiac poll from two weeks ago STILL the highest weighted
poll when it is the ONLY poll to have Obama ahead in the last month! (except
for the 9/15 CNN poll which was only BO +2, and is also more highly weighted
then more recent polls) Why does "trend adjustment" favor Obama by 3% (!) when
the recent "trend" in OH is clearly towards McCain (by trend, I mean the
results of more recent polls vs. older polls)
But instead we are suggesting that manipulation costing 100's of k's a week istaking place in the In trade market. Which is more easily manipulated - a
market? or a spreadsheet? If you think the former, please feels free to buy up
"cheap" CDO's at .30 on the $ because your spreadsheet says they are worth .97
More polls SurveyUSA
Oregon: Obama 52 McCain 41
Maine: Obama 49 McCain 44
Rasmussen
NC: Obama 49 McCain 47
EPIC-MRA
MI: Obama 48 McCain 38
McCain doesn´t want debate.
McCain you´re crazy?
all polls are fake
McCain Landslide !!
Keep up the good work, Nate. Shouldn't you make NC a toss up state now? (And white, at best?)
Up is down, dammit.
Seriously though, I think the American people are smarter than McCain gives them credit for. They can tell when you're being political.
Great post Nate, love the site.
LOOK THIS STORY from ORLANDO SENTINEL for REGISTRATION IN FLORIDA. AMAZING!!!
Obama will win Florida.
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/local/state/orl-voter2508sep25,0,6238727.story
LOOK THIS STORY from ORLANDO SENTINEL for REGISTRATION IN FLORIDA. AMAZING!!!
Obama will win Florida.
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/local/state/orl-voter2508sep25,0,6238727.story
I think it is more the timing issue. While i think that Barack Obama came dangerously close, in time terms 'waited to long', to talking with the american people in any real way about the crisis.
McCain suspending his campaign this late into also just seems contrived. The McCain camp should have much more quikly called Obama on his fence straddling and done this move monday if tehy were going to do it at all.
Mac is no longer a serious candidate... he turned his campaign into a freak show deliberately, in order to confuse moderates.
Those same moderate voters are now feeling embarrassed for him. He is becoming an object of pity. Crazy Sara Witchcraft Excorcism videos are flooding YouTube. Wow. Tears of a clown.
In the last 10 days, we have received an unusually high volume of voter registration applications," state Division of Elections Director Donald Palmer wrote in an e-mail to Florida's 67 election supervisors Wednesday.
Despite hiring an extra 25 staffers, Palmer wrote, the agency can't handle the volume -- it received 25,000 new registrations in one day this week -- and "will need to forward many of these applications to the counties of registrants to ensure they are timely processed."
HIHIHIHI. Obama will win Florida.
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/local/state/orl-voter2508sep25,0,6238727.story
***The Public has seen through very clearly on McCain's STUNT!!
---McPain will now have to go back to Alaska and Arizona!!
---Republicans are tearing their hair out because the entire PARTY is going to get beaten out of many many Congressional and Senate seats!
COMPLETE makeover of Washington!!
**KICK THE MCBUSH BUMS OUT!!!
**THROW THE MCSAME BUMS OUT!!!!
!!! THAT"S WHAT THE PUBLIC IS SAYING!!!
MCBUSH, WALL STREET, FINANCIERS AND MCSAME FIRST!!!!
********COUNTRY LAST!!!!
*******MCBUSH SAYS COUNTRY LAST!!
*******MCSAME SAYS COUNTRY LAST!!
Obama needs to reconnect with the independents during the debates, or he's going to face long odds, regardless of what the polls indicate.
NBC Has Michigan tied...
Obama 46%
McCain 46%
Jamie, I think the reason the projection jumped back to Obama shortly after McCain took the lead was that the polls all bounced back to Obama. Sort of an Occam's Razor situation there.
The reason why McCain didn't do something politically brilliant *and* game-changing, instead of just wild and game-changing, is that he's essentially a wid and irresponsible jackass. Always been one, always will be one, and even his heroism seems to stem from a deep desire to stick it to whateve authority figure currently has him in his clutches.
People have always known this, and he's not letting them forget it long enough to vote for him.
And Rasmussen adds:
The overwhelming majority of the interviews for today’s report were completed before the President’s speech last night. However, it is worth noting that results for the past two individual nights of polling were quite a bit weaker for McCain.
"Quite a bit weaker"!
NBC/Mason Dixon Battleground poll for Michigan
Obama 46 McCain 46
Keep up the good work, Nate. Shouldn't you make NC a toss up state now? (And white, at best?)
I doubt that this one poll is going to move things much, given the massive amount of other polling in the state. Probably going to make NC a marginally whiter shade of pink, though.
From the Rasmussen tracking report today:
"The overwhelming majority of the interviews for today’s report were completed before the President’s speech last night. "
Are Republicans really hoping that Bush's vague, phone-it-in speech will boost McCain's numbers? That seems like quite a long shot. It also links McCain and Bush, which defies the "maverick" meme.
At this point, any Republican looking to Bush for help or even leadership is delusional.
The primary media effect of McCain's ploy seems to have been to provide a license for media figures to criticise him without appearing "in the tank" for Obama.
Oh, and his name is now not McLame or McSame. It's McNuggets. Because he's a big fat old chicken.
Wow Jamie,
Them grapes so sour I can smell them from here. Have you thought of vicodin?
"NBC Has Michigan tied...
Obama 46%
McCain 46%"
Do you have a link for that? MSNBC's not showing it as far as I can see.
What is McCain going to try to suspend next? The VP debate? NFL Football games? The Election?
There are a few ways to take McCain suspending his campaign.
1. He's like Ross Perot, erratic.
2. He's completely cynical.
3. He's desperate to keep Sarah Palin out of unscripted events.
marcus,
he did try to suspend the VP debate. And he mentioned that Palin may be suspending her campaign as well.
Correct me if I'm wrong.
Didn't Ross Perot suspend his campaign and then came back a couple of days later with 50 percent of his support missing?
AMMXZ:
A better one is McChickain, don't you think??
Well, at least McCain has some good news in Michigan.
The map is flipping around in weird places if he can really show some leads there.
I think most watchers have got this right ...
McCain is not running towards a crisis .... he's running away from one, in his own campaign!
"Didn't Ross Perot suspend his campaign and then came back a couple of days later with 50 percent of his support missing?"
My recollection is that it was more like a couple of months later, but basically, yes. He was actually leading in some polls in like June (with ~30-35% of the vote, mind you, this was a 3-way horserace). Of course, McCain has a major national party behind him, so he's not going to lose 50% of his support.
***Oh yeah! That's right!
**McChickain is acting like Ross Perot!!
BUT where is the giant sucking sound??
quantman: I stand by McNuggets.
BAWK BAWK BAWK-BAWK BAKAWK!!
This is transforming from a pure statistics site to a sounding board for Obama. Nate will never admit to it, but I am guessing he is taking sizable positions on Intrade and is using this site towards that end.
These "analysis" posts are becoming more and more transparent.
"A better one is McChickain, don't you think??"
They all suck. They suck for Democrats. They suck for Republicans. They suck in sports. They suck in music. They suck in everything.
They make the person saying/writing them seem like a 13-year-old of slightly below average intelligence.
Didn't Ross Perot suspend his campaign and then came back a couple of days later with 50 percent of his support missing?
As per Wikipedia, he dropped out on July 16 (when he was nearly leading) and got back in on October 1.
"These "analysis" posts are becoming more and more transparent."
As is the likely result of this race. Can't handle the bad news? Tune out. Don't kill the messenger.
"Didn't Ross Perot suspend his campaign and then came back a couple of days later with 50 percent of his support missing?"
Well, Perot suspending his campaign is very different from what McCain's doing. McCain's not actually dropping out of the race, of course.
And considering I saw an ad from him on TV this morning, he hasn't actually suspended his campaign, either.
McSame's attempt to claim credit for the bailout doesn't seem to be off to a great start:
Rasmussen: "Other than the bounces related to his convention and speech in Berlin, this is the first time Obama has had 49% support on back-to-back days since early July. It’s also McCain’s lowest level of support in nearly three weeks."
Marcus:
In case you had NOT heard:
-- McCain Campaign has already asked for the VP debate to be postponed.
--They are now saying have the 1st Pres debate same date/time as the VP debate and PUSH the VP debate back!!
McPALIN needs time!! Debate prep for her right now is a disaster!
****This in ONE more reason why McSAME and McCHICKAIN wants to postpone tomorrow's debate.
Obama takes a 2 point lead in North Carolina - according to Rassussen!!!!
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/north_carolina/election_2008_north_carolina_presidential_election
Wankstain-McChickain '08.
I meant Rassmussen, duh!
What will happen if McCain dropped Palin now. Early voting started in 4 states (Georgia, Kentucky Virginia and Iowa). Will he be forfeiting them? I have a feeling that he is overplaying this sense of urgency thing to drop Palin.
Expect October to be spent by McCain publicizing everything about Barack Obama's political upbringing that the Left accepts as OK. McCain will have a hard time fighting against the presses ideologically favorable disposition towards Obama.
It may not work, but on November 4, the voters will close the curtain behind them and decide, "Do I take a chance on Obama given what we know about the company he keeps or do I play it safe and take McCain along with the 1st women Vice president?"
http://embeds.blogs.foxnews.com/2008/09/24/palin-will-also-suspend-campaign/
Sarah Palin will also Suspend her Campaign.
esmith: If he drops Palin, he loses everyone's respect. The Independens will see that he can't make even *that* decision without backtracking, the base will mourn the loss of the Northern Huntress Mother, and the Democrats will just laugh and laugh...
imho - because the public doesn't know any of that stuff now? It all came out in the primaries. They know already and have already made their decision on how they feel about it.
And anyone with Palin on their ticket should be real careful with "company they keep" attacks.
"Sarah Palin will also Suspend her Campaign."
The political version of a tree falling in the forest with nobody hearing it. :)
He's not going to drop Palin. He'll look even more flailing than he already does.
"What will happen if McCain dropped Palin now. Early voting started in 4 states (Georgia, Kentucky Virginia and Iowa). Will he be forfeiting them? I have a feeling that he is overplaying this sense of urgency thing to drop Palin."
As to the technical question, I'm sure that any early votes for McCain would stick if Palin dropped off the ticket. In electoral/political terms, though, of what would happen if he dropped Palin, I'd put the over-under on Obama's electoral votes at LBJ's 1964 total. Dumping Palin would infuriate McCain's last wall of support - the conservative base.
And if his argument for dumping Palin basically amounts to, "Well, this is a serious crisis, so we need a serious VP candidate" what the hell does that say about John McCain's judgment and his choice of Palin in the first place? I can't believe that even John McCain is "maverick"-y enough to actually drop Palin from the ticket.
I hope for Nate's sake that he doesn't drop Palin. Because if he does, this is all over but for the crying.
"do I play it safe and take McCain along with the 1st women Vice president"
This is partly my biases showing, but given some of his campaign decisions, I'm not sure that people are going to see voting for McCain as the "safe" choice in this election.
I would dearly love to believe this post, but I doubt it's really fair. They do these polls throughout the day. How much of the day, let alone the 3 day average, was post-announcement? And how many of those polled had heard of, let alone absorbed, it?
"do I play it safe and take McCain"
The problem is that McCain has completely undermined that argument with his own behavior. Voters increasingly see that Obama is intelligent, calm and reasoned in his approach -- safe -- while McCain is erratic, inconsistent and reactionary -- unsafe.
9/25 Diageo/Hotline Tracking Poll
Obama/Biden 47%
McCain/Palin 43%
Undec 8%
koz: Yeah, I want this race to at least *look* like a race and not a lock. Otherwise, where's the excitement of winning?
AxmxZ has a good point about McCain being wild.
The media should go back and look at McCain's role in starting the most deadly shipboard fire in U.S. Navy history.
McCain's jet blast caused the rocket pod on the other aircraft to cook off.
****McChickain WILL show up the debate tomorrow with his tail between his legs!!
He will try to spin it on the debate and it will not work!
This is gonna hurt McCancel with men. Walking away from a fight ain't gonna play well.....anywhere!
It must be demoralizing as well to his supporters. I know I'd be demoralized if my candidate was actin' yellow.
quantman, it would be easier to take your posts seriously if you removed the keycaps that say "Shift", "*" and "!" before posting.
"koz: Yeah, I want this race to at least *look* like a race and not a lock. Otherwise, where's the excitement of winning?"
I don't want the excitement of winning. I want the person who I think is best suited to run the country to win.
So it's tomorrow's tracking polls that are going to be murderously bad for Mac. Rasmussen hinted at two bad days in a row... today with the media backlash against the debate duck is gonna be third.
So Friday's tracking polls set the political narrative for the debate night - Mac in freefall. This weekend is going to be brutal for his campaign.
If they actually announce the bailout deal this morning, he is going to look like a doddering fool.
I think this is the legitimate John McCain, he would rather lose this election than damage the country by campaigning throught the disaster and making it political. Even if he has to step down as the nominee he would rather be in congress doing his job. Forget the election. No stunt here, its who he is. I stark contrast to Obama, who has always and only been about winning elections no matter what the cost. Great that punditry says it was a thoughtful political move, or bad if they say the opposite, but that decision was not politics. This election is not more important than stopping the next great deppression from happening, I hope Obama gets that message, because these two guys running for president are the power brokers for their parties and the two will have to solve this before the nation can or should be concentrating on a November election. How small of Obama to insist on a debate. What an a**hole, putting partisan politics before the country.
"I would dearly love to believe this post, but I doubt it's really fair. They do these polls throughout the day. How much of the day, let alone the 3 day average, was post-announcement? And how many of those polled had heard of, let alone absorbed, it?"
The reasons for it are speculation, true, but the math is the math - McCain lost a point of support in both of the morning trackers (and Obama also gained one in R2000). To be fair, there's probably something like a 15-20% chance that this happened purely due to sampling error. I'm curious to see if Diageo and Gallup show similar numbers (if the movement was just random noise, you'd expect McCain to gain in 1 of those 2).
Inkstain:
The Democratic primaries only mattered for those hard-core politicos and democrats. Really, what was the policy difference between BHO and HRC? I'll give you more free stuff and pullout of Iraq faster than you?
Unfortunately, the MSM uses a primary battle as an excuse not to revisit the information for a general election battle where the whole country is listening.
The general electorate isn't tuned into the NYT and cale news talk until post-Labor Day. The MSM's decision not to re-cover Obama's rise in Chicago politics is intentional.
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/news/local/state/orl-voter2508sep25,0,6238727.story
This is really scary. I wouldn't define it as "voter suppression". That implies one side is using tacticts to prevent the other from voting. But, here's the problem. I caucused in Texas this year. I'm 31 yrs old and I've never seen anything that dysfunctional in my life. Nothing. It could not have been any more poorly organized. It was pure chaos. I think they guessed how many wanted to vote for whom. Many people left after 4-5 hours with no leadership in the room and noone pointing us in the right direction. My point being if it's made extremely difficult to vote for some, they may not do it. You won't have an naccurate representation of what the people want. I just have trouble trustingthat couldn't be a decdding factor given stories I've heard and my own personal experience.
"As is the likely result of this race. Can't handle the bad news? Tune out. Don't kill the messenger."
Case in point. Thanks. How do you even know that I'm not an Obama supporter? Not everyone has blinders on kid.
The issue is the analysis as they relate to the numbers. The two are becoming intertwined, and not for the good of the site. I am postulating this is because Nate is profiting via another means (Intrade) and using this site to help him.
"The Democratic primaries only mattered for those hard-core politicos and democrats."
Check the turnout. Check the ratings. You couldn't be more wrong.
"Case in point. Thanks. How do you even know that I'm not an Obama supporter? Not everyone has blinders on kid.
The issue is the analysis as they relate to the numbers. The two are becoming intertwined, and not for the good of the site. I am postulating this is because Nate is profiting via another means (Intrade) and using this site to help him."
The analysis *doesn't* relate to the numbers, though. It's just random attacks about imaginary Obama-favoring tweaks that never happened.
Silver's rep as a statistical analyst is absolutely top-notch.
CMK:
McCain as an "unsafe" pick is political branding by the Left. It could work as the MSM is ideologically-inclined to helping Democrats and BHO especially.
But just as the Left had an ideologically blidnspot when nominating a former serviceman who figuratively spit on his country post-service, it has the same blindspot for the anti-capitalist/Americans that BHO suckled on.
I believe this campaign is all about ENERGY.
McCain's energy. Or lack of it. His age and his impatience are showing. He can't work the long hours, the 7-day weeks needed to command this sustained campaign effort. He's wearing down.
And now it's clear that some of the games that are being played in his name -- including the Palin selection, Rick Davis' holding back information about his continuing financial tie to Fannie, the repeated playing of ads that the public itself knows are deceptive -- are hurting him badly.
So he didn't want to get off his chair and come out for the first round of the presidential debates. It was "No Mas" even before the contest started.
Above my paygrade,
"This election is not more important than stopping the next great deppression from happening..."
Are the two mutually exclusive? Frankly, if McCain was such a hero, he'd just go back to Washington and do his business as a Senator without such a song and dance.
"McCain as an "unsafe" pick is political branding by the Left. It could work as the MSM is ideologically-inclined to helping Democrats and BHO especially."
The public sure seems to be buying it.
Nate how long does it take for you to do a simulation run? are you ready, now that there are so many polls, to start to run a few times a day? hourly? real time as each poll comes out?
:-)
@justin32099 said...
"And considering I saw an ad from him on TV this morning, he hasn't actually suspended his campaign, either."
That would have been TV station error. We got an order killing ALL McCain spots as of 4pm (CT) last night.
-Adam
zzyzx: Frankly, I think McCain is completely spent. Anything he does now will be viewed as a transparently obvious attempt to change topic, stall discussion, etc. And the more he does this, the more he looks like either a coward, who's too afraid of Obama to engage with him directly, or an old dullard, who really can't prepare for a debate on foreign policy while there's a Great Depression-like crisis going on in the fundmentally strong economy...
See, one can't even make sense of McCain's positions logically. This is beyond flip-flopping - this is borderline senility. Someone mentioned this above: McCain is undermining his last biggest asset: safety. But how can anyone who is approaching the campaigns without prejudice view Obama as "risky" and McCain is "safe" after all these flip-flops and stunts that McCain has been pulling?
"How small of Obama to insist on a debate. What an a**hole, putting partisan politics before the country."
....Waiting for the punchline....
Damn, you're serious?
This was the ultimate partisan move from McCain. The economic crisis has been going on for a week and a half now, why does he suddenly want to make his announcement yesterday?
His true intentions can be debated, but my feeling is that his end goal was getting the debate pushed back...possibly with the goal of cancelling the VP debate altogether. It fits in with their overall strategy of protecting Palin from having to actually answer questions.
I respect the decision (on BOTH candidates) to go back to Washington and try to help this through. But if his time is so desperately needed there, why is McCain giving interviews with Katie Couric and speaking at the Clinton Global Initiative now, but he can't spare 12 hours to fly down to Mississippi and hold a presidential debate?
He's ducking it.
Jamie: The Quinnipiac OH poll still has the highest weighting because it has the largest sample size and a smaller-than-average amount of pollster-induced error.
The trend adjustment is an adjustment based on the shift in the NATIONAL polls.
If you don't like Nate's weighting, you're free to come up with your own.
I'll go one step further with regards to Florida. I believe MccAin will end up winning Florida. I also believe he would've lost it if all the people that went down to register to vote got their paperwork handled properly. This is a pathetic excuse for a government we have that can't figure out how to get elections processed properly. It works out in the RepubliCONS favor consistently because of the nature of the problem. The hope for me will be that Florida isn't the deciding factor. I'm telling you, we had the exact same problem in our Caucus in Texas. There were 100 times more people involved than they anticipated. The county wasn't just unprepared for i. They had no attempt at a solution. The people there to handle it were overwhelmed and basically did nothing. I bet the net amount of people who don't get properly registered on the Democratic side will be higher than the margin McCain wins by. It's not something you can prove, so hopefully it won't decide this election. I'm not however benig paranoid. I've seen anything like the incompetence of a government overwhelmed with no solution and not enough qualfied people to handle something. It's handled bizarrely poorly in that it doesn't reall get handled at all.
I see this as capitulation on the part of McCain/Palin. Only with a really amazing result from the bailout negotiations which is attributable to McCain's meddling with it can this campaign be re-started and have even a ghost of a chance
I don't think McCain ever intended to skip the debate...I think he's using this as a ploy. He threw it out to see how Obama would react - put them in the position of taking a position - and they've responded with "Hell no. We're staying with the schedule as planned."
Anyway, my estimate is that McCain's still going to go to the debate, but he's trying to build ammo. He's going to go in trying to carry some image of "rising above the campaign" in a state of crisis while portraying Obama as just "sticking with politics and the election despite the burgeoning crisis."
Despite his grandstanding, if he ultimately shows up, it's hard to think that will hurt him politically. Seriously, how much support can he really lose just by "saying" he would skip the debate to help solve the bailout deal but ultimately shows up anyway?
He forces the Obama Team to react and will try and use that reaction, whatever it is, to his advantage politically.
Shrewd and risky, and potentially a backfire, but he has at least forced Obama's position on this.
"That would have been TV station error. We got an order killing ALL McCain spots as of 4pm (CT) last night."
I see, thanks. Yeah, I'm in VA and there was definitely a McCain ad this morning.
Juris said "It was 'No Mas' even before the contest started."
Roberto "Hands of Stone" Duran!
Leonard/Duran was a fight for the ages.
Inkstain:
Democrats vote in Democratic primaries. Turnout can't be denied, but the Democratic primary isn't the general electorate.
An example. The MSM wants us to believe HRC's support was filled with Smith College feminists and Obama actually won secret ballot primaries.
But a non-Demoract can conclude HRC's 18 MM was composed slightly differently,a nd nothing in BHO's actual record can soothe that without a heavier-than-normal assist for the MSM.
So how is this decision playing in your local news which is most important.
If I were McCain I would keep his head and focus on appearing presidential. He needs to stick to his message and not panic with eyebrow raising moves like this everytime he falls a few points back in the polls.
Obama kept his head when McCain was experiencing his post-convention bounce in the face of pressure from senior democrats to change his strategy.
McCain should learn from this. Personally I hope he doesn't take my advice though as i'm an Obama fan and want to get rid of the type of divisive politics that Bush and the Republicans stand for.
"McCain as an "unsafe" pick is political branding by the Left."
Bullshit.
McCain is unsafe because of his own behavior. People are noticing on both sides of the aisle, it's just that on the right, too many people care more about him winning than about recognizing what he would do in office.
When George F. Will doubts the temperament and judgment of a Republican presidential nominee 6 weeks before the ballot box, you know something is seriously wrong.
One of the grand failures of this campaign is the attempt by McCain and his supporters to wage war on the media and blame the left for it. People aren't falling for this utter tripe any more, when they can see with their own eyes that McCain is losing it on a daily basis.
Battleground doesn't have a 3-4 point republican lean. Rather, they're the only firm with the sense to look at what's happened in past elections to help determine party ID. That they've settled on D+3 should tell you that the D+8-16 nonsense (or even the D+5.5 Ras uses) is bogus.
"Democrats vote in Democratic primaries. Turnout can't be denied, but the Democratic primary isn't the general electorate."
You honestly weren't paying attention at all in the last six months, were you? Independents and Republicans alike voted in record numbers in the Democratic nomination process. And *everyone* was watching.
"But a non-Demoract can conclude HRC's 18 MM was composed slightly differently,a nd nothing in BHO's actual record can soothe that without a heavier-than-normal assist for the MSM."
A non-Democrat can conclude whatever he or she wants. But enough of them are concluding in favor of Obama that apparently your view isn't quite the mainstream.
"So how is this decision playing in your local news which is most important."
Overshadowed by Bush's speech.
Who cares though. It's not like Seattle is going to vote for McCain (I almost typed Bush out of habit) regardless of what the Times or P-I says.
"Battleground doesn't have a 3-4 point republican lean. Rather, they're the only firm with the sense to look at what's happened in past elections to help determine party ID. That they've settled on D+3 should tell you that the D+8-16 nonsense (or even the D+5.5 Ras uses) is bogus."
So every other professional pollster has no idea what they are doing?
Don't hurt your hand grasping at straws so hard.
By the way, if there were a vice presidential drop it would be Biden, he has been terrible, and when Palin wipes the floor with him, and he commits 20 or more gaffes during the debate, Obama may just consider it. Obama basically is begging him not to campaign so much, he is a drag on the ticket. No Coal in America! When FDR was president and saw the Great Deppression collapse he got on Television! Obama is the first articulate African American Male! The Obama Campaign is against the AIG Bailout! The 1982 ad is wrong and reprehensible! I just can't wait to see what Biden says today. Makes for fun politics when the VP candidate says the opposited of the POTUS candidate at every turn.
"I think this is the legitimate John McCain, he would rather lose this election than damage the country by campaigning throught the disaster and making it political."
You're not really this easily fooled, are you?
It is *McCain* that made this political specifically *with* this stunt. He was never involved in the deal and wasn't needed except to give assurance that he would support it. The entire thing was a political stunt from the start.
And if it wasn't? That's equally bad news because it shows McCain is not up to the job of being president. What would he do in a *real* crisis? Phone in sick?
No stunt here, its who he is."
Then for the good of the country he should withdraw from the race, because he is unfit for command.
"The MSM wants us to believe ... Obama actually won secret ballot primaries."
Am I understanding you correctly? You're saying that you don't believe that Barack Obama actually won the 18 million votes that he was awarded?
As to Rev. Wright, the issue isn't voting in the Dem primary, it's that everybody already knows who Crazy Jeremiah Wright is, so the reaction to him, good or (mostly) bad, is already embedded in current polling.
Washington Post Poll releases their internal Party ID data in response to McCain camp criticism. Apparently they are showing a 7% Dem. advantage and have been all year. But, when "leaners" who express no party affiliation are pushed, they increase Dem. party ID to 16%.
That would show an affiliation among independents with the Democratic party. Interestingly McCain's own advisers are saying that Dem. party ID advantage "could be 6 to 8% on election day." That would be an Obama landslide!:
"Bill McInturff, pollster for the McCain campaign, held a conference call to suggest the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll in effect overcounted Democrats. The reality is that partisan affiliation in our poll is just about where it’s been all year – and just about where McInturff himself said it might end up on Election Day.
What matters is whether you’re looking at “unleaned” or “leaned” party identification, and whether that’s among registered or likely voters. The most relevant number for this discussion is unleaned party ID among likely voters – 37-30 percent Democratic to Republican in our poll. As it happens that’s precisely where McInturff said the election could turn out: the Republicans, he said, “could be down 6 to 8.”
McInturff’s focus was on a different number - leaned party ID, not unleaned, and among registered voters, not likely voters. We have a 16-point, 54-38 percent Democratic advantage there, which he said was “an unusual outlier.” In fact, rather than an outlier, that almost exactly matches our average for this number all year, 52-38 percent.
Background: Partisanship is measured by asking if people think of themselves as Democrats, Republicans or independents. That’s unleaned party ID. A next step is to ask independents which party they lean toward. That’s leaned party ID.
Unleaned party ID is more telling – it’s more rooted in actual partisan sentiment; it lets us look separately at independents, the quintessential swing voters; and it’s the number that’s comparable to what we learn from the exit polls on Election Day.
As noted, unleaned party ID among likely voters in our latest poll is 37-30 percent. Its average since we started following likely voters in June has been about the same, 36-31 percent. Among the broader population of registered voters it’s 38-28 percent, exactly matching its 2008 average in ABC/Post polls. Our leaned party ID among registered voters, also as noted, is 54-38 percent. Among likely voters it’s 52-41 percent.
I’m attaching to this note a pdf of our party ID breaks all year. You won’t see McInturff’s: “We've never talked about our internal numbers during the campaign,” he said. “Ever.”
The margin is 10% among registered voters (unleaned) 37%-30%, but 16% with leaners 54%-38%. Among likely voters, the unleaned margin is 7%, but the leaned margin is 52%-41% (11%).
During the McCain bounce on 9/7 the Dem. advantage was only 3% among likely voters, and 4% leaned.
Thus, in the last few weeks, McCain has lost about 7% among leaned likely voters, 4% among unleaned voters.
No wonder he's trying to shift the debate by posing as a "bi-partisan deal maker" to grab the credit for the bailout! He's being crushed!
We know what happened in Florida last time. Thousands of likely Democratic voters were erased from the voters lists for no reason at all.
You know the braindead GOP hacks are really scared when they start attacking Biden and saying Palin will "mop the floor with him".
Hey sport, now FOUR WEEKS with no press conference. Where's the Chicken with Lipstick hiding today?
Shrewd and risky, and potentially a backfire, but he has at least forced Obama's position on this.
Yes a bit too obvious - another faux fight over something that McCain knew was nothing if you are right and he always intended to debate.
Just looks way too much like political grandstanding on McCain's part. Heck this is the 21st century - he can go to the debate and be back in DC in time for breakfast. The University of Mississippi has spent $5.5 million getting ready for this debate, the American people want to hear the candidates debate. McCain can't and shouldn't let everyone down, not if he's serious about being president.
McCain has the potential of winning a squeaker here if he/Palin win the debates soundly and he gets back on his game. A tied popular still probably favors him. But, Obama at this point has the potential of winning a landlslide, winning by a substantial margin, not quite a landslide (about where he is now), or winning a squeaker. If the elction were held today, I beleive OBama would win: New Mexico, Iowa, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and perhaps barely miss on Montana and Omaha. However, I think he'd win the majority of them by less than his popular vote % and if he ends up giving it all back and we're tied come election day, McCain might be in the drivers' seat. I think Nate's numbers are about right, 75% for Obama. Intrade is a good bet rgiht now.
"Seriously, how much support can he really lose just by "saying" he would skip the debate to help solve the bailout deal but ultimately shows up anyway?"
He could lose support because the media (and talk shows) will expose Palin for the fraud that she is. For example, McCain lost big last night failing to appear on Letterman. Letterman asked and asked.... "Where is Sara?", "Why can't the number 2 speak for the campaign?"
This will eventually take. More people will start asking this question.
inkstain,
are you any more decided on how this will play out now? Or do you still think this will take some time.
"So every other professional pollster has no idea what they are doing?
Don't hurt your hand grasping at straws so hard."
Look, the reality is that if D+10 is real, then McCain has *no shot* at the popular vote. No past election has been over D+5, and there's no reason to expect this one will be any different (unless you have an agenda).
For National polls, Battleground is the gold standard (followed by RAS). Battleground is a BI-partisan poll, done by cooperation between democratic and republican polling firms. Unlike, say, the Research2000 tracker paid for by a biased party (though R2k is a good polling firm). You can't really believe the D+16 weighting in the new ABC poll that showed O+9 yesterday can you?
For State polls, Mason-Dixon and Ras are the gold standard. The Ras NC sample this morning has me a bit worried, as did MD's FL poll Monday, but overall those firms don't paint anywhere near as grim a picture as some of these nobodies coming out of the woodworks with polls.
How does this not turn out good for McCain? Bush is meeting with leaders on both sides. McCain will be reaching across the aisle through his Democrat cronies and bringing them on board. Obama will as usual be with Democrats, no republican on capital hill likes him, and he never goes cross aisle to get support for anything. In the end Bush says we have a deal, but we could not have gotten it without McCain bringing a coalition of Republicans and Democrats to the table to work this out. McCain does nothing for four days but build this bipartisan coalition. Its been his role in congress for close to 26 years, why wouldnt he do it a gian now. No one is more qualified to build bipartisan coalitions in congress to get work done.
Letterman was completely right.
How is she supposed to step in to his shoes in the whitehouse when she can't even step in to his shoes in the trail
Letterman was completely right.
How is she supposed to step in to his shoes in the white house when she can't even step in to his shoes in the trail
tomthress:
Caucuses and voting booths are not the same. One method is used in the general election. The other is not. How each candidate did in each format is important.
I have always held that the fundamental difference between America and sham elections in other countries is the ability to cast ballots in secret without repercussion. It is not just the "right to vote" but the ability to keep your result to yourself without political/mortal repercussions.
Another thing to wonder is what happens if this becomes a joke. This is the kind of thing that does destroy campaigns.
"The Dow is down 10 points! I better suspend my campaign!"
"They got my lunch order wrong! I'm going to suspend my campaign until they get it right!"
"How does this not turn out good for McCain?"
Uh...
He looks stupid?
He lied?
He's trying to take credit for something he had nothing to do with?
He appears weak?
He's trying to screw over a university that acted in good faith?
He's attempting to pressure Congress to make a snap decision on something critically important?
He looks desperate?
"McCain will be reaching across the
"we could not have gotten it without McCain bringing a coalition of Republicans and Democrats to the table to work this out."
This is a crock of shit that only braindead GOP hacks like you really believe. Sorry.
Perot did drop out but it was considerably more weird than this... everyone suspected he was a loose screw and his "pause to refresh" just confirmed it.
Speaking of the 90's...
Bill Clinton was on TV, apparently this morning? or last night on Larry King? and he lent credibility to guess who??
McCain.
Saying he thought Mac was sincere in his attempts to hammer out the bailout bill and (get this) repeating Macs mantra that he called for multiple debates during the Summer as a pretext for him wanting to postpone the Oxford debate.
Takes one scammer to know another I guess. It's so obvious that he and Hillary are doing the bare minimum (like asking your kid to clean his room and he picks up one pair of socks off the floor and says he's done!) to assist Obama.
Voted for Bill in 92. Voted for Nader in 96 after Bill, counseled by Dick Morris(!), pushed through a mean welfare bill which kicked the ass of a lot of single moms with kids, forcing them to travel hours in some cases to make mimimum wage. While leaving their kids alone. All so Clinton could point to them and say "see! welfare to work!
His Health and Human Services secty, Donna Shalayla resigned over the clear stunt for his re-election.
Had no use for his ass after that.
Have even less use after the primaries this year.
Paul
" A tied popular still probably favors him. "
You keep saying that, and it still couldn't be further from the truth. Nate's analysis and a simple look at the polls proves that Obama's got the map advantage due to his strength in Kerry - NH + NM + IA + CO.
"are you any more decided on how this will play out now? Or do you still think this will take some time."
More time. It'll be the weekend before we know how polling really shows it.
Three places in life you can't call time out: war, business, and politics.
This is cynical. What made John McCain different than the Bushies or even the Reagan crowd was his lack of cynicism and refusal to embrace jingoism back in the day. With the Palin pick and this effort to kick the can down the alley, he has let us know that he has become cynical in order to save his own hide.
You will not be allowed "time outs" when you are President. You will be forced to deal with more than issue ALL of the time as an engaged President. You can debate with or without a bill.
FDR said in the midst of another financial crisis that "The only thing to fear is fear itself". Bush and McCain yesterday said the same cynical line that defined the Bush Presidency: "Fear, fear, fear...pass this bad bill now...and we'll blame the other guy later".
This move is political, cynical, and lacks rational explanation.
Here's the link to the Washington Post Party ID spreadsheet. Take a look at those numbers. They're very revealing:
http://abcnews.go.com/images/PollingUnit/ABCWashPostPartyID.pdf
McCain is desperately trying to shift the debate, because Obama is breaking away from him due to Independents shifting to Obama over the last 3 weeks since the Republican convention.
The election is verging on a blow-out and his numbers were tanking everywhere as independent voters concluded that Obama would be better to fix the economy. He had to do something.
If he can bludgeon the Congress into finishing a deal on Friday, then he can try and claim the credit.
He's trying desperately to muscle in on the negotiations to position himself as a "Maverick" who gets things done. But, he just looks like a total grand-stander.
Of course, he's counting on the stupidity of the American public not to notice that nobody needed McCain to get things negotiated and that all he's doing is trying to hog the lime-light.
Well, stupid beat smart in 2000 and 2004 and McCain is hoping lightning will strike three times in a row.
"Obama will as usual be with Democrats, no republican on capital hill likes him, and he never goes cross aisle to get support for anything."
Chuck Hagel? What about Tom Coburn, who called him yesterday morning?
More bullshit.
Glad to see the Mule Rider is back.
As for IMHO, after reading his posts in which he desperately tries to avoid the cognitive dissonance this site is giving him I am reminded of Winston Churchill's line about Clement Atlee and, to paraphrase,
"IMHO has much to be humble about."
"If he can bludgeon the Congress into finishing a deal on Friday, then he can try and claim the credit. "
Sort of like he did with the GI Bill.
The "man of honor" has become a shameless liar. Not that we didn't know that already.
And if it's not done by Friday, he'll try to say it is "all the Democrats' fault".
McCain is loathesome offal.
Yeah, of course this isn't going to fly well for McCain. Even the people I know fervently support McCain think that this is a really bad move on his part because even if he is being genuine in his desire, it still looks like he's trying to dodge the debate with Obama, and that makes him look afraid of Obama.
I wonder how much effect McCain's actions have had right now? Its difficult to tell from trackers I suppose because at least 2/3 of the polling was done before the McCain gaffe. [Honestly, at least right now, thats what I think it was]. Its like convention bounces I guess, if it has had a transformational effect on many people's thoughts on the race, we will only get the full impact in a few days, by which time this thing may have played out anyway. I mean, I think McCain gaffed, but I am pretty biased, I am sure many GOP types honestly believe McCain has done a brave thing. But its difficult for any of us with a clear preference to really know how this has played out yet, as our own hopes and fears are so invested in it.
"How does this not turn out good for McCain?"
Possible ways this turns out bad for McCain:
1) If he gets credit for pushing through a final bailout bill that is unpopular with voters (the Bush/Paulson proposal is VERY unpopular with voters).
2) If a compromise is reached this morning before McCain gets a chance to participate.
3) If the whole thing falls apart, particularly if the reason it falls apart is seen to be McCain's meddling.
4) If McCain shows up to the debate before a compromise is reached.
I'm having more trouble seeing how this turns out good. I mean, I see the "best-case" scenario - a popular compromise bill passes that McCain gets credit for. I just don't see how we get there from here.
McCain has no particular expertise on economics or finance. He's said so himself. Personally, I don't see that as a big knock against his Presidential candidacy - that's why Presidents have advisors. But McCain's not an economics expert, he's not on a relevant committee, so what role could he possibly play here?
You say he can "reach across the aisle" but what's the proposal he's going to bring across the aisle with him and why would McCain be uniquely qualified to do so?
While I am convinced that the McCain campaign has now officially jumped the shark, we probably won´t see it in the polls before tomorrow. The Diageo Hotline tracker is a bit too volatile to show a short term development, but the Ras uptick is great. However, the McCain must have known that the trend was going for Obama and that´s why they had to do... something.
The +2 in North Carolina is awesome, but I also recall the Ras +6 McCain for South Carolina. Maybe they are in fact over-sampling African Americans in these 2 states. The numbers are just too good - especially for Rasmussen.
I'm surprised I haven't heard a bigger deal about the Rasmussen poll showing Obama up 2 points in North Carolina. With other close polls (two ties), isn't there a good chance that Obama might win NORTH CAROLINA?
I am someone who always wants to give someone the benefit of the doubt, and honestly yesterday at 3 when I heard John McCain's statement at first I thought he was actually doing something for the Country instead of for the campaign. Once it was reported in Obama's statement around 4:30 that they were supposed to put out a JOINT statement first, and how McCain jumped the gun to seize the attention it became more clear to me that this was a "stunt".
I do believe McCain really does care about the Economy crisis but how this occurred yesterday was a Hail Mary pass. For me the analogy for this is, McCain throws a hail mary, the pass is CAUGHT but there is a review on the play (this would be how the public handles this). Right now we're not sure how the "play" is going to turn out.
By the way, "jumping the shark" means that McCain will still get 45% of the vote I would guess. There are too many Republicans, veterans and Independents who just don´t like Obama (and racists).
but we could not have gotten it without McCain bringing a coalition of Republicans and Democrats to the table to work this out
What horsesh*t. McCain is completely unnecessary to this legislation and everyone who knows anything about Congress knows it. He doesn't even sit on any of the relevant committees. This is transparent grandstanding.
McCain has released an official talking points memo to his surrogates before his announcement. Unfortunately for him, this was leaked to the media.
His move was entirely transparent.
What an asshole.
What also irks me is how much credit people will give Bush for showing up ten days after the crisis began. He shows up and scares us to death.
Then McCain thinks it is "Presidential" to stoke fear on the crisis? Call time out? This is when the people need the two candidates to reassure them most for the future.
This is all about numbers, polling numbers. What an amazingly cynical deception: claim it is more American to interject yourself in a debate that is virtually done already, attempt to take credit for the result for short term gain, then call your opponent un-American for actually believing leadership isn't about hollow gestures.
Never thought I'd say this, but Barney Frank has way more credibility in my eyes today than John McCain in their respective approaches to this crisis.
I do kind of think this is McCain doing what he did with Gustav. Actually, as he has no seat on the banking committee he isn't in on the nitty gritty, Chairman of that committee Chris Dodd was out y/day saying that y/day was the first conversation he has had with McCain on this bill. Its not so much what he can do, its that he wants to be seen to be there. Its like an appearances thing, not an actually doing something thing.
And why did he have to suggest on Wednesday that the debate should be postponed? Why not monday? or Friday itself? I think McCain really has flubbed a good opportunity to look presidential.
If McCain doesn't show up for the debate, he will have given a giant F U to Ole Miss University.
Especially since they spent five million dollars getting ready. His campaign ought to reimburse them if the debate isn't held.
Of course, McCain has a solid lead in Mississippi, so what does he care?
Here's how McCain can help get this done:
He walks into the negotiations that Dodd and Frank have been tirelessly holding. And they are just a millimeter away from agreement.
When McCain says
"THE FUNDAMENTALS OF THE ECONOMY ARE STRONG"
Yep. That should do it. Push it over the top and get it done.
The Kool Aid drinkers can spin it all they want, but to the Indies and Undecideds this smacks of fear and grandstanding. And, as of 11 am 9-25 the details of the plan are now agreed upon by all major players (except, of course, McCain, who's not there yet).
In the event that he has to go back to the Senate next year he will be loathed by *everyone* thee.
"Look, the reality is that if D+10 is real, then McCain has *no shot* at the popular vote. No past election has been over D+5, and there's no reason to expect this one will be any different (unless you have an agenda)."
Or, I don't know, if you actually ask people how they feel about things?
There's never been an outgoing Republican incumbent this unpopular in our lifetimes, so why wouldn't D indentification be higher?
"For National polls, Battleground is the gold standard (followed by RAS)."
What a shock, you picked the two that have the strongest Republican house effects...
"Battleground is a BI-partisan poll, done by cooperation between democratic and republican polling firms. Unlike, say, the Research2000 tracker paid for by a biased party (though R2k is a good polling firm). You can't really believe the D+16 weighting in the new ABC poll that showed O+9 yesterday can you?"
What do you mean by "believe"? Do I believe that the actual leaning affiliation is D+16 for the whole country? No. Do I believe that a national sample could come up with that number in one poll? Yes.
That's why we don't pick and choose individual polls, we take them all as data points.
"For State polls, Mason-Dixon and Ras are the gold standard."
Says who?
"The Ras NC sample this morning has me a bit worried, as did MD's FL poll Monday, but overall those firms don't paint anywhere near as grim a picture as some of these nobodies coming out of the woodworks with polls."
Nobodies? You are just flailing wildly, making stuff up.
STepper:
Cognitve dissonance is right. I don't see the penumbra of light around BHO. And visting this site is defintely a source of dissonance for those of us who don't.
Nate has been given a place in polling prominence, and I am a fan of the work done at the non-political Baseball Prospectus, so I want to see what he does with the sausage-making that is election polling.
But politics isn't baseball. Politics is filled with propaganda from both sides, and I like watching Nate bend numbers, like a plant seeking sunlight, towards his leftist desires. Whether he can objectively analyze numbers is very interesting.
So far, I have seen no one here observe that the bouncing of independents shows a fickleness that defies statements of certainty. This election will bounce around the debates, the revelation of BHO's political past to the general electorate (or McCain's willingness to pound it) and unknown events.
Gallup has Party ID at D+9, last I checked.
Are you going to call Gallup a nobody, come-out-of-the-woodwork pollster?
"Never thought I'd say this, but Barney Frank has way more credibility in my eyes today than John McCain in their respective approaches to this crisis."
Funny you should say that...
Pop over to the companion site , log onto "newest polls" and post your prediction for this morning's Gallup.
Winner gets a mooseburger! Second-place gets a mooseburger with Sarah Palin!
Phillip said:
You can't really believe the D+16 weighting in the new ABC poll that showed O+9 yesterday can you?
You ought to read my post above. The actual Democratic Party ID in that poll is 7% and has been virtually all year. That 16% is the LEANED party ID.
First they ask people whether they consider themselves Democrats, Republicans or Independents. Then ask the Independents whether they are leaning towards the Democratic or Republican party. This number "Leaned Party ID" bounces around a bit.
Right now, Independents are breaking for Obama by +9% . That's why he's up by 9% in the poll overall.
Registered voters: Unleaned: 37% D - 30% R.
Registered Voters: Leaned: 54% D - 38% R.
Likely voters: Unleaned: 37% D. - 30% R.
Likely voters: Leaned: 52% D. 41% R.
Overall: Obama +9%. So, not only are Republicans more likely to be "likely voters" but McCain enjoys a 2% party loyalty advantage. That is, more Republicans are voting for McCain than Democrats are voting for Obama and this reduces Obama's overall advantage from 11% to 9%.
That's not very good. Bush beat Kerry in party loyalty by 94% to 89% or 5%.
If McCain's party loyalty advantage is only 2% on election day, he'll lose badly.
"Cognitve dissonance is right. I don't see the penumbra of light around BHO. And visting this site is defintely a source of dissonance for those of us who don't."
That's irrelevant. What's relevant is that virtually the entire election, outside of the convention bounces, you have been in the minority of likely voters.
I should point out that the Washington Post party ID of 7% is almost exactly where Rasmussen has been most of this year.
And it's slightly (2%) less than the Research 2000/DailyKOS Party ID of 9%.
Research 2000 measures their party ID the same way Rasmussen does, but they don't apparently vary it weekly the way Rasmussen has started to do.
Inkstain,
What do you think happens if Sarah Palin doesnt debate next week or if she suspends her campaign as well.
FOLKS you should all be aware that:
1. The Congressional Republicans may decide to go with the people and against BUSH on the bailout
2. I think they will try to run as true conservatives and independent of BUSH.
3. WHY? If the bailout passes and things turn out OK, they can still say that they did not want to set a socialism precedent. So, for them downside risk is very low.
4. On the other hand, if the bailout bill passes and it does not work or is just flat, then in 2 years they cannot be blamed for not supporting it.
5. So, it's easy for them! If the public opposes it, then they will oppose it too, because downside risk is low, and upside is low too. So, they will be conservative Republicans.
IF this happens and the bailout does not pass, WE WILL have a stock market crash IN October!!
And we WILL go into a deep recession, hopefully not a depression.
"5. So, it's easy for them! If the public opposes it, then they will oppose it too, because downside risk is low, and upside is low too."
Stupid representative democracy, being beholden to the will of the people and all.
"IF this happens and the bailout does not pass, WE WILL have a stock market crash IN October!!"
And if we get the bailout passed, can you promise me there won't be a crash later on?
"And we WILL go into a deep recession, hopefully not a depression."
Can you promise me this won't happen without the 700b?
John McCain taking credit for anything that the House and Senate produce on the crisis (or, apparently, have done) is like the rooster walking in the barn and taking credit for sun up.
The cynicism of this move is so unbelievable and I was one who used to hold McCain aside as a different type of Republican.
Now, I see him as just another Bush Republican. He worked for weeks to cut Bush off of his side. This kills all of that effort.
Debate and quit acting like a petulant hypocrite.
"What do you think happens if Sarah Palin doesnt debate next week or if she suspends her campaign as well."
That depends on how McCain is perceived in this first round. Still too early to tell.
"Suspending your campaign" won't mean much in the long run. The question is the debates. You don't mess with Americans who are expecting a spectacle.
Like I said yesterday, I'm reminded of what a historian once said about P.T. Barnum. His genius wasn't in discovering how to fool the public, it's in discovering how badly the public wanted to be fooled. They were flattered that people would go to such lengths to fool and entertain them.
We want to be debated in front of. We want the candidates to fight for our votes. Taking away the spectacle is a bad move, imho, but we'll see.
If the Republicans hold out like that and the bill doesn't pass, will McCain keep his campaign suspended?
Cugel, not sure where you got those numbers but that was very interesting. Thank you for explaining that.
Anyone think this sets up McCain to have really low, unjustified low expectations for the debate similar to Palin's speech where he wins just by showing up?
Inkstain:
I don't know how old you are?
BUT, I hope you know by now that there are NO promises in life, investments, business.......or anything to do with the future.
ONLY, event probabilities of various multiple scenarios, with all possible event probabilities adding up to 100%.
I am betting the bailout does not pass AND the stock market truly crashes (say 1000 points in 1 day), and we have lines at the banks of people withdrawing money in droves.
ALL IN OCTOBER 2008!
I give the above at this time a 25-35% probability. And, that as scenario probabilities go is very high.
quantman - your guess is noted. The problem is, I've read a hundred guesses from a hundred well-qualified economists in the last few days, and none of them seem to agree.
Combine that with the fact that these are the same people who created and perpetuated the system that created this mess, and I think you can understand my skepticism.
Lets put it this way. Investors are banking on a bailout. If the bailout doesn't pass then the stock market will tank simply becuase it was a possibility before. Basically the prophesies of the babbling class will become self-fulfilling.
I think Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid are going to be asshats and purposely stall any progress in the bill just to screw over John McCain.
The most incompetent Speaker and Senate Majority Leader of all time, folks.
eric,
the thing is, even if he shows up he looks weak.
"1. The Congressional Republicans may decide to go with the people and against BUSH on the bailout
2. I think they will try to run as true conservatives and independent of BUSH.
3. WHY? If the bailout passes and things turn out OK, they can still say that they did not want to set a socialism precedent. So, for them downside risk is very low.
4. On the other hand, if the bailout bill passes and it does not work or is just flat, then in 2 years they cannot be blamed for not supporting it.
5. So, it's easy for them! If the public opposes it, then they will oppose it too, because downside risk is low, and upside is low too. So, they will be conservative Republicans."
Republicans (including McCain) SHOULD do this. If they agree to the bailout then they've pretty much conceded the entire economic argument to the Democrats. The Bush Republicans have already thrown away the "small government" side of the debate. All they disagree with the Democrats on is what to spend it on and how to finance it. If they endorse this bailout then they've thrown away the "free market" side of the debate, too.
Recessions are natural and inevitable. They're the market's way of punishing stupidity and recklessness. If the Republicans can't handle that, then they need to stop talking about how great free markets are.
Sure, McCain would probably lose the election if the economy goes further south in October, but he's likely to lose anyway and at least then he and the Republican Party would still have their principles.
"Lets put it this way. Investors are banking on a bailout. If the bailout doesn't pass then the stock market will tank simply becuase it was a possibility before. Basically the prophesies of the babbling class will become self-fulfilling."
Agreed there. The promise of the bailout is the only thing holding up the markets right now.
"I think Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid are going to be asshats and purposely stall any progress in the bill just to screw over John McCain."
Which is exactly why McCain's actions are wrong.
@IMHO
Humble and humiliated come from the same root.
Quantman's observation is something I have had in the back of my mind.
The far right Republicans want the freedom to vote against this so they can go back to the district and say they opposed socialism. Problem is for McCain, the party in the House has changed since he went there in 1982. There are more Republicans and they are not the more moderate Republicans like Bob Michel and Guy Mulinaro of 1982.
The majority of House GOP members now are doctrinaire conservatives and red state heavy. You do not have leadership in the moderate ranks like 1982.
This House GOP is hard core and there may be very few of them to defect to what they see as socialist legislation in order to save McCain who has openly said the far right is full of nuts, religiously and economically.
Those guys/gals need re-election, too.
"I think Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid are going to be asshats and purposely stall any progress in the bill just to screw over John McCain."
'Asshats'? They SHOULD ensure that this doesn't happen by Friday. McCain's behavior is little more than hostage taking of the debate and should not be rewarded.
Looks like a good slate of state polls from Ras today,
PA, OH, WV
WV should be interesting, it seems to be the least polled of the close states. Let's see if Obama can preform better than in the primaries.
Tyrone:
Pelosi and Reid matter little at this time....IT is the 90% of the Republicans in the House who will NOT vote for it!!
If that happens, even if 90% of democrats backed the bill and Paulson, it still will NOT pass and they consequnces will FALL SQUARELY on the Republicans.
I believe this is a 25%-35% highest probability outcome, in the 5-6 different scenarios that I have.
Above my Paygrade said...
How does this not turn out good for McCain? Bush is meeting with leaders on both sides. McCain will be reaching across the aisle through his Democrat cronies and bringing them on board. Obama will as usual be with Democrats, no republican on capital hill likes him, and he never goes cross aisle to get support for anything. In the end Bush says we have a deal, but we could not have gotten it without McCain bringing a coalition of Republicans and Democrats to the table to work this out. McCain does nothing for four days but build this bipartisan coalition. Its been his role in congress for close to 26 years, why wouldnt he do it a gian now. No one is more qualified to build bipartisan coalitions in congress to get work done.
You're deluding yourself. He's a thorn in Republicans side. They don't look to him for anything, ever. Especially not on economic matters. Democrats either. Dems in the Senate repsect him when he stands up to the Neo-Cons on specific issues like torture on the environment, but they never, ever take his lead. That's not who he is. Now, there's an absolute vacuum of leadership for the Republicans. they certainly don't look to Bush or Cheney anymore, so by default they may look to their defacto leader as opposed to any other alternative. But, your assumption that he brings people together is ludicrous. He's only causing a problem with this. A joint statement and request by Bush to have thme come to Washington was the impetus to move forward, not McCain. He's especially not repsected right now when it's very, very vlear in everyone, but the most partisan, that McCai of all our leaders knows little to nothing about the economy and has nothing of any value to add to this conversation.
Debates are an institution in the US Republic.
This play for McCain was a joke and he will pay it.
Doug,
my point is that "all" the polls didn't include the polls in OH unless you handpick which polls you like. Occams razor would suggest taking OH poll trends to predict the results in OH, not something else.
"I think Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid are going to be asshats and purposely stall any progress in the bill just to screw over John McCain."
You realize the Republicans are the ones most strongly against the bailout, right?
---Look, the reality is that if D+10 is real, then McCain has *no shot* at the popular vote. No past election has been over D+5, and there's no reason to expect this one will be any different---
The reality is McCain has no shot. There are dozens of reasons to expect there to be substantially more Democrats this election.
The media narrative requires a close race to sell soap, end of story. When your argument revolves around "this happened last time, so this will happen again" you're pretty much wasting everyone's time.
Quantman,
Your guess has merit, excpet I think the number is lower than 25-35%. Here's why. Friday is D-Day basically. If nothing is done by Friday, the freak-out scenario where everyone runs from US financial institutions would start, but the Congress would have all of Saturday and Sunday to quell it before it gets bad when the stock market and banks reopen. They would certainly get something ironed out over the weekend, if for no other reason than to avoid your panic scenario.
Aaron,
pollster accuracy is certainly a legit response. sample size - not so much unless the others are less than about 1200 people. After that, larger sample sizes are irrellevant.
your comment: "If you don't like Nate's weighting, you're free to come up with your own."
should highlight exactly why I am skeptical of nate's weighting. Certainly I could weight them however I want and come up with any result I want - so thank you for making my point exquisitly clear.
they will delay this until Saturday. They have to.
The McCain campaign has jumped the shark!
How this is playing on the local news: As Politics as Usual:
"Debate Debate: Candidates Spar On Friday Showdown
Campaign '08 Complete Coverage
About The Candidates & Issues
WASHINGTON (CBS) ― John McCain and Barack Obama say presidential politics should have no role in the government's efforts to save the crippled financial system. Yet, each is playing his own politics toward the same goals - showing leadership during crisis, getting credit for any solutions, and, ultimately, winning the presidency.
The latest example: a debate over whether the candidates should debate Friday.
McCain called for his Democratic rival to agree to a postponement until Congress agrees on a $700 billion government plan to rescue banks from enormous debt, saying, "We are running out of time."
Obama rebuffed his GOP rival, saying the next president needs to "deal with more than one thing at once."
Congress shouldm't rush into this bailout. I'd rather you take a few extra days and get things right then rush things thru. We don't need a 700billion dollar mistake b/c there is no way people are goingto go for a redo if they come back asking for another 200billion later.
Eric,
I hope you are right!
However, I believe Republican congressmen have more to gain, and not much to lose by voting against it than for it, BECAUSE the public is one their side!
Plus, I think these guys are now listening more to Gingrich. Check out his advice in last 24 hrs by Googling it!
Inkstain, Politico just picked up that comment i sent to you lastnight about the "Israelites and how they work"
Sounds pretty deadly for south Florida The Inkstain.
Why exactly is Friday the deadline? That's what I don't understand. I've heard that said before but why would the system be saved if this is done on Friday but not if it happens a week from Tuesday?
I don't know if anyone noticed, but the Labor Dept. released unemployment claims numbers (highest in 7 years) and housing numbers (most stagnant starts and sales in 30 years). Those numbers were story number two today.
Within a week of September 30, most Americans will have received a 401K statement. October, traditionally, is the most sluggish month in the stock market because large movers move money in or out after 3Q reports.
McCain's people know the crisis is not working in their favor. They think the appearance of leadership is as good as actual leadership. When times are bad, that is a risk.
I prefer to think the American people are smart enough to see through this cynical move. I sure hope they are. Otherwise, we get the government a dumb electorate deserves.
@ Arnaud 8:51
"The move comes as both presidential campaigns stepped up their interest in Florida's registration efforts and Republicans accused a local voter-registration group of "quasi-criminal" actions because of mistakes on two forms submitted to Seminole County."
This is so typical of Republican ploys, to point the accusatory finger over trivia, while they interfere with voting rights, commit out and out fraud (Texas prison records used to challenge Florida voters), and plot treason in the White House. Some twerp in the Bush administration even threatened action against a Presbyterian church in Pasadena that was allowing the ACLU to speak on their premises, while evangelical churches all over the country were bringing in candidates of only one party to speak to their congregations, a clear violation of the tax code against religious organizations being involved as partisans.
I believe that the Republicans have become so used to spinning the facts that they have no idea of objective reality anymore.
Anybody got some change?
"Inkstain, Politico just picked up that comment i sent to you lastnight about the "Israelites and how they work"
Sounds pretty deadly for south Florida The Inkstain."
Funny how our upbringing affects perception. It still just sounds like something people say in church. The old, committed people nod in agreement and the Sundayists like me just kinda veg out and wait for football.
"The Bible says that the wealth of the wicked is stored up for the righteous....That's what we are waiting for. That's part and parcel of transformation. If you look at the -- you know -- if you look at the Israelites, that's how they work. And that's how they are, even today."
The wicked Israelites have wealth stored up for the righteous Christians.
The battleground poll is an outlier, every other national poll has Obama up anywhere from 2-9 points.That poll has always trended conservative and I don`t think they are showing the internals.
i am sure they are oversampling republicans..
It is obvious this is a 3-4 point Obama lead right now and with Mccain erratic behavoir it will ony grow.
I`m still thinking at the debate McCain will either have fooled Obama into looking bad or will come off as a confused old man on the verge of senility.
CHARLES: QUIT LINKING TO YOUR STUPID BLOG. NOBODY CARES. NOBODY GOES THERE. NOBODY IS GOING TO CLICK ON IT. ITS SPAMMING AND ITS ANNOYING.
Assuming the debate goes ahead on Friday, and supposing that Obama was to win it well. What would the impact on McCain be?
In other words, will McCain suffer more from a poor performance than he would have done otherwise?
Might a poor performance from McCain act to crystalize doubts that people have regarding his judgement in light of his unusual (aka maverick) decisions over the last six weeks.
The public might not give him as much of a chance to recover his reputation in future debates as they would have done otherwise.
This decision might have fatally impacted his credibility.
That kind of rhetoric is common in your church?
"Assuming the debate goes ahead on Friday, and supposing that Obama was to win it well. What would the impact on McCain be? '
See October 1996.
What are the dates/internals for the NBC MI poll?
"That kind of rhetoric is common in your church?"
Yes, though usually pro-Israel. The consensus is that the only reason America has such prosperity is because God blesses them for supporting Israel. The consensus is that if the evil leftists convince America to stop unconditionally supporting Israel, God will withdraw that blessing.
McCain is pulling his ads and Obama is just launching a new 1 minute ad that looks great and to the point in terms of where the public is on this bailout!!
Watch it at thepage.time.com
About Nate 'twisting the polls towards his leftist desires' - I will prove otherwise by finding an average of the polls outlined in yellow in the bar on the right hand side for several swing states, and then what Nate has.
CO: Obama +5.0 (+4.4)
FL: Obama -1.8 (-0.6)
IA: Obama +7.4 (+9.8)
IN: Obama -2.1 (-2.1)
MI: Obama +3.8 (+4.2)
MN: Obama +3.5 (+5.7)
NC: Obama -3.5 (-2.7)
NH: Obama -1.0 (+1.0)
NM: Obama +8.7 (+7.1)
NV: Obama +0.5 (-0.3)
OH: Obama -2.1 (-0.3)
PA: Obama +2.6 (+4.3)
WI: Obama +3.8 (+6.9)
VA: Obama +0.9 (+3.0)
So, the average difference between Nate's projection and recent polling in the battleground states (and yes, my definition of battleground state is pretty liberal) is (40.4 - 25.7)/14= +1.05 to Obama.
Now, you could take that as solid proof that Nate is fiddling with the numbers- although that one percentage point is pretty small. On the other hand, you could say that Nate isn't projecting towards what happens today, but what happens on election day - and, of course, he's using the national tracker results as well. Nate has one state that he has put in the blue column against current polling - New Hampshire - but has done the opposite with Nevada.
Frankly, if there's anything strange, it's just this election.
"they will delay this until Saturday. They have to." - Vanessa
The deal is effectively done right now, Vanessa. Obama and McCain offer nothing to the technical discussion any more.
To cancel the debate is akin to giving a child whatever they want after trumping up a tantrum because things are not going their war. In this case, McCain is stoking a crisis that is being adresssed by other, more capable people. All, ironically, while his numbers are plummeting.
This is cynical on McCain's part. Do not reward the whining child with a "time out" because things aren't going his way.
"I don't know if anyone noticed, but the Labor Dept. released unemployment claims numbers (highest in 7 years) and housing numbers (most stagnant starts and sales in 30 years). Those numbers were story number two today."
These are the sorts of things that don't need mainstream media attention, though. Very few people will vote based on official Labor Dept. unemployment numbers. But LOTS of people will vote based on whether they or their family or friends are unemployed or are worried about losing their jobs. Likewise, people don't know what the official number of "housing sales" is; they just know if they or their acquaintances are having trouble selling their homes.
The fact that the MSM isn't making these numbers front-page news doesn't mean that these aren't the numbers that are going to drive the election.
InkStain said...
" A tied popular still probably favors him. "
You keep saying that, and it still couldn't be further from the truth. Nate's analysis and a simple look at the polls proves that Obama's got the map advantage due to his strength in Kerry - NH + NM + IA + CO.
Perhaps you're right. It's still feels like the default in a tied electorate is Kerry +NM +IA. Perhaps Obama would win Colorado, lose Ne Hampshire and we'd have a tied electoral college, but it feels like the only two predictable flips in a tie are New Mexico and Iowa. The other possibilities are Colorado, Virginia, New Hampshire,Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada. I just sense Colorado might swing back in the scenario where McCain's momentum gets him back to even. Right now, I'd bet Obama would win the popular by 4-6 points and Colorado by about the same time, but I'm not sure he'd hold on there if there were some catalyst that gave mcCain momentum to close the gap. I'm not anticipating it, but we'll see.
Bigger news: The MIchigan poll or the NC poll?
Both are just single polls, but to me Michigan is a bit more important. NC is window dressing for Obama, Michigan would be a new lease on life for McCain.
Seen this poll yet? Alaskans pick Biden over Palin:
http://www.delawareonline.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080925/NEWS02/809250356/1007
I think majority of Americans want debate.
It´s an instutution of the US Republic.
Refuse the debates are bad.
McCain said that the fundamentals of our ecomomy are strong and now he wants to refuse the debates because our economy is in "trouble".
Senator McCain i respect you until today. You´re a liar, Senator.
New SUSA polls:
DE O +20
MA O +16
You may now act surprised.
zzyzx,
It'b b.c the marjet acts like petulant children. They are speculating on a bailout gettting done today so the market is up200pts. The financials released today were actually bad ..jobless claims at 7yr high, home sales plunge, housing valuses greatest monthly lost ever...etc..But they are expecting to get more money to make bad decisions without repercussions.
This is a great quote:
"Any change is as good as a vacation at this point. I don't know if you've paid much attention to the past eight years, but it has been a shit burger supreme. If somebody gives me an empty burger, it's better than eating shit."
Stephen Colbert
Colorado has been polling about one full point ahead of the national trend.
It's not *safe* for him in an even environment, but it's more likely than not.
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