As Nate and I wrote late last night, Sarah Palin's speech released a tremendous burst of energy on each side. Democrats were angry. How angry? $10 million for Barack Obama from Palin's speech until the time McCain takes the stage tonight. Undoubtedly, we will soon see numbers from the McCain camp announcing high fundraising figures. She energized both bases.
As much as Palin fired up and got everyone on both sides ready to go, there is a heart-mind conflict we mentioned yesterday. Emotionally, the Republican base says: Yes! Give us more of this so we can work our guts out for you. Analytically, the Republican insiders know: In 2008, swing voters are the key to winning. While last night must have felt wonderful, I'd be soberly waking up worried about some of these independent focus groups like this one in Michigan and this one of former Clinton supporters in Nevada are saying about Palin's speech.
Therefore, what we should carefully watch for tonight is the tenor of McCain's speech. He's got to reach for independents, and to do that he's got to sound like he's full of practical solutions. Hitting Obama a few times will be expected, but if it's not a broadly-articulated vision of where the country needs to go, the race will continue to be "Obama" vs. "Nobama." (The latter being a big bumper sticker hit here in St. Paul). Obama vs. Nobama is a race McCain will lose, much the way Bush vs. Not Bush turned out in 2004.
24 hours is a lifetime in politics (during a convention especially), and as much as the Palin speech story dominated the mood last night and today, this time tomorrow it will seem like a fast-fading memory. Consider: the Reverend Wright controversy that felt huge as it unfolded now feels as if it occurred eight lifetimes ago. By the time we reach the debates in a few weeks these conventions will be historical footnotes. That's the way it works, and it's one reason Obama's approach has been to let these temporary buzzes slide off - Jay-Z style - while staying focused on the larger strategy.
EDIT: More Palin links for your browsing pleasure [--Nate]
Nearly as many people watched Palin last night as watched Obama last Thursday.
But some of those people were Obama supporters -- and they're donating to their candidate in large amounts.
A Media Curves analysis found voters' perceptions of the McCain-Palin ticket improving significantly after watching her speech.
But focus groups in Nevada and Michigan were less impressed.
Rasmussen's voters think Obama is more qualified than Palin -- but not by an especially wide margin.
And SurveyUSA's voters like Palin -- but aren't as sure she reflects well on McCain's judgment.
9.04.2008
All Your Base Are Belong to Her
@ 5:50 PM
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236 comments
"The real tipping points will come in MI and PA. that would be my order of finish. Both parts of the Mc Cain-Palin ticket have appeal in these areas, especially the small rural places, the Land of 1000 Lakes places."
I think that's Minnesota. :P
Minnesota is not going Republican, and, if it does, it is a McCain landslide and doesn't matter anyway.
Palin is a great squeaky toy to toss to the nuttier parts of the base while McCain wins the elections by appealing to independents and fiscal conservatives.
The strategy in a nutshell. Nicely summarized. Might work, too, even if "fiscal conservatives" would have an instant abortion if they actually looked at McCain's tax plans (they won't, of course... tax is boring).
Obama and BillO.
Best thing BillO can do with Obama is to simply let Obama be Obama and make sure to reveal him as the liberal that he is. Don't impeach him there, but use his answers later to take him apart surgically. Obama was a fool to do this.
Stop searching for magic bullets, people. "Troopergate" isn't going to kill Sarah Palin. She has lawyered up, and any lawyer who can't delay something like this for two weeks doesn't deserve a license. I'm sure Sarah's lawyer is good enough for that purpose.
What the Democratic Party needs is someone, somewhere, to decide that, with the partisan balance having shifted, with Bush fatigue well entrenched, with 80% thinking we're on the wrong track, that maybe -- just maybe -- they can go on the offensive.
But frankly, if they need to learn this now, then it's already too late.
I'm wondering exactly when Powell will endorse Obama. I'm guessing it depends on exactly what kind of truly new-clear October Surprise Rove has planned.
rhys: You're right, of course: "1. En toto, Palin is a trap. "
This needs to be about Bush and McCain, and how A = B. Obama shouldn't even mention Palin's name after Saturday or so.
This gets back to that whole "disarm yourself for the sake of a news cycle" thing. Palin will be old news in a week (but the scandals will live forever!), and Obama can keep Hoping and Changing his way to the White House.
When will you morons get it through your skulls that Rove isn't in charge of the McCain campaign anymore than Carville-Begala is in charge of Obama's campaign? The guy is a media commentator now, not some kind of super uber sith-like first born of Satan controlling McCain through mind control.
What Obama is doing works. He's succeeding.
I question that, to put it mildly. Obama should have at least 15 points on McCain in this enviroment. Instead, it's pretty much a tie game.
I can say this much: The Obama campaign is living proof that Darwin's theory was misunderstood. It was never about the "survival of the fittest," it was always about "the survival of the adequate." If your species can adapt well enough to generate 2.1 copies per generation, you stick around, even if you're a flightless bird.
I'll be shocked if Obama loses, but this thing is waaaaaaaaaaaay too close for me to feel good about it.
I'm wondering exactly when Powell will endorse Obama.
Don't hold your breath. I don't think Colin Powell wants to be President anymore, and I think he has soured on holding office (not surprising given the first Bush term). He has no incentive to endorse anyone. If he has a book coming out, he just might do it to boost sales.
Obama should have at least 15 points on McCain in this enviroment.
No way. Generic Democrat beats generic Republican by about 10 points (that's the spread I generally see in Congress polls, for example) but John McCain is no generic Republican. McCain, for all his faults as a potential President, is a hell of a politician and very appealing to a wide range of voters.
I'm wondering exactly when Powell will endorse Obama.
Endorsements don't count, unless you make them count. And I'm not sure Obama's people know how to do that. I mean, if they knew, then they'd also know how to make the stunning LACK of Republican endorsements of McCain count.
That guy has been ditched by 90% of the Republicans in the Senate and the House. Do we hear anything about it? Nope.
The point of course is that Palin ads to the appeal of the McCain ticket in a way that few vice presidents in history ever have.
The Obama campaign is living proof that Darwin's theory was misunderstood.
I'd explain all the ways in which that statement is wrong, but it would take way too long.
Google "survival of the fittest" and learn what it's actually about and read up a little on population dynamics, so you can understand what the phrase means (i.e., not what you think it means)
"When will you morons get it through your skulls that Rove isn't in charge of the McCain campaign anymore than Carville-Begala is in charge of Obama's campaign?"
When McCain stops acting like Rove is running his campaign.
Generic Democrat beats generic Republican by about 10 points (that's the spread I generally see in Congress polls, for example) but John McCain is no generic Republican. McCain, for all his faults as a potential President, is a hell of a politician and very appealing to a wide range of voters.
You've got 80% of the public saying the country is on the wrong track. Bush's approval in the mid-20s to 30%. The economy looking like a shit sandwich, gas and heating fuel sky high, and McCain a 72-year-old dope going on 90.
Obama should be running above the Democratic party I.D., not below it. The idea that his campaign is some well-oiled machine is just preposterous.
Pluckon,
Obama has 2-3 pts not being reflected in state polls. The McCain campaign internal numbers showed something also that made them think they had no chance without a hail mary.
The point of course is that Palin ads to the appeal of the McCain ticket in a way that few vice presidents in history ever have.
Well, she adds to his appeal with the people that he absolutely, 100% must have in order not to get blown out. She does nothing to add anyone that McCain must add to his account in order to win. Originally I thought she'd bring in those people, but week one of Sarah Palin has already convinced me that she is going to be a national joke by the end of September. She can't even do a presser without the McCain people spiriting her away... it's not looking good for her.
She still speaks to the crazies, absolutely, but if McCain doesn't have them, he's dead in the water anyway.
"I question that, to put it mildly. Obama should have at least 15 points on McCain in this enviroment. Instead, it's pretty much a tie game."
You have unreasonable expectations. That's why you are disappointed.
If I told you two years ago that it would be McCain versus Obama and Obama would be up by 5 two months to go, would you have EVER stopped laughing?
Obama has considerable talents and is a real leader, but he's still a young liberal black guy from Chicago trying to become president in a country with a lot of conservative values, suspicions about race, outright rednecks and a culture that increasingly considers intelligence and education something to be scorned.
tybalt, I shouldn't have mentioned Darwin's theory here. I don't want to get off on a sidetrack, so let's drop it. I say that without yielding my point, but only to keep from hijacking the thread, okay?
Don't forget those crazy Diebold machines, rhys. Controlled by Karl Rove through telekinesis, of course.
OTF said...
Eric,
The press is going to question her record. We will see how long they hide her from a real interview. She refused to take any questions today after her convention appearance. They are afraid for anyone to ask her a question about her record and past commnets.
I don't think they're hiding her to not answer questions about her record. She should be abe to do that. I think it's because they don't want her asked about things that a VP should know about, economy, foreign relations, and her extreme social issues. They need to drill that stuff into her head so she has as much of it memorized as possible and then hope to avoid the media as much as they can for 60 days. I'm telling you guys, she's clueless. It's such an onboxious choice. I hope it blows up in their face, so they rethink how they try to win elections and nominate people that are more centrist and more qualfied instead of playing demographic games and us against them culture war crap.
"Obama should be running above the Democratic party I.D., not below it."
If he were white and from, say, Miami, he would be.
In fact, this election would already be over.
"I hope it blows up in their face, so they rethink how they try to win elections and nominate people that are more centrist and more qualfied instead of playing demographic games and us against them culture war crap."
This is exactly why they NEED to lose this election. The future of the country and of any hope of regaining a real conservative party depends on it.
Obama has considerable talents and is a real leader, but he's still a young liberal black guy from Chicago trying to become president in a country with a lot of conservative values, suspicions about race, outright rednecks and a culture that increasingly considers intelligence and education something to be scorned.
I'll grant your point on race. But this country isn't any stupider than it was in 1964 or 1936. The Democratic Party, as an institution, is dumber than it used to be.
Palin will do just FINE with the press. They will put her in situations where no one will commit the sin of journalism. Not hard to shop around for those venues. Just wait.
But Rove is running McCain's campaign. Rove is in constant contact with McCain and his top people, he is widely admitted to be an "unofficial adviser". Plus all of his people are in top positions with McCain.
Rove's protege and mouthpiece, Steve Schmidt, runs the McCain campaign's strategy. It's well-understood in Washington that Steve Schmidt doesn't choose to stand up or sit down at the toilet without consulting Karl Rove first.
Rick Davis, who used to run McCain's campaign, was a Bob Dole man and an old-style Republican. Davis is gone now, because McCain abandoned his advice for the Rove guys.
Geoff:
It constantly amazes me how Republican trolls like you come onto this site, which has a signficant number of people on it who actually know how to do quantitative data anlysis and post garbage based on their subjective read of data they clearly don't understand. Don't you realize we know how stupid your posts are (I'm talkling only about the data ones)?
I suggest you go over to pollster.com and look at the charts there for the individual states. There you will find trand lines produced by mathematical analysis of poll results. Look at PA and MI. PA is trending toward Obama, so where you get the idea that it's closing is beyond me.
Michigan appears to have had a constant Obama lead of about 4.5% for the last several months. I'll even give you a hint about how to do a quick check on the trends. Go to Nate's State results and compare the straight polling average to the trand-adjusted average. If Obama is up in the latter, it likely means the trend is in his direction (this is only a quick approximation, but is reasonably accurate.)
Michigan shows a slight trend to Obama and PA shows a substantially larger one to Obama.
Your eyeballing the numnbers does not constitute data analysis. It is the opposite of data analysis.
Of course, the polling numbers don't get serious until another week or two. But if he tracking polls don't show a noticeable improvement for McCain over the next two days - at least 3% average in the two. That would still leave Obama in the lead, but brings him within reach.), he's toast, barring some implosion by the Obama campaign.
And if the trend toward Obama continues in tomorrow's tracking polls (that would mean negative impact for Palin), you can still salvage something from this year by putting money on Obama on Intrade or one of the other betting sites.
I don't blame the Republicans for picking Rove's team. They're winners. Why wouldn't they pick 'em?
That said, I also think Rove is vastly overestimated. The issue isn't his brilliance; it's that the Democratic Party is stuck on stupid.
Does anyone realize that Obama hasn't been on the offensive since Jeremiah Wright? It has all been a game of defense for his campaign. Our side sits and waits to see what the Republicans will do, and then fiddles around and comes up with half-measures.
The Democratic campaigns are cautious, literalistic, hidebound, inflexible, and outdated. They barely know how to communicate, and they know NOTHING about coordinating.
If Lyndon Johnson were alive today, he'd be bouncing off the fuckin' walls. It speaks volumes that the only decent attack lines at the Demo Convention came from Clinton. Say what you will about the Clintons, but those people knew how to use a knife. Too bad that she underestimated Obama last fall, because I think she'd have run a much better general election campaign than I've seen out of Obama so far.
But it goes well beyond the personalities. The Democratic Party, as an institution, has lost its political instincts. Let's hope that, if they pull this out, no one starts into the self-congratulation mode.
p.s.: I think Carville was spot on when he compared Obama to Adlai Stevenson, the greatest president who never got elected.
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/talk/2008/09/20m-challenge-now-spread-the-w.php
SPREAD THE WORD. Let's ALL make a statement and raise 20 MILLION for Barack Obama before tommorow morning. Let's show that even on a so called "republican night" us democrats WILL BE HEARD.
BTW, I think Brad's post about the legal aspects of Palin's challenge to the legislative investigation of Troopergate are spot on. Not only that, I don't think a court has jurisdiction to rule on the prospective actions of the legislature, only on the laws passed by it and signed by the governor.
There's a story at RealClearPolitics that shows that at least some of those "independent" focus group members in Michigan were actually committed Obama supporters. I don't know if this focus group was seeded with Democrats like Luntz's focus groups are with Republicans, or whether voters are becoming smart/cynical enough (and focus group organizers lazy/dumb enough) to lie their way into selection, but I think the usual caveats against focus groups should be amplified.
Pluckon is quite the concern troll!
petekent: The point of course is that Palin ads to the appeal of the McCain ticket in a way that few vice presidents in history ever have.
Appeal to whom? Certainly to the base; maybe they'll contribute to the RNC. But to swing vote moderates?
One person at one of the Democratic party committees said to me today that if they want to play a play to the base campaign, they're happy to do it since they now outnumber the Republicans. If Palin doesn't help McCain with centrists, then I don't see how she helps win the election.
As for fundraising, another $5k from me to the DNC today. Boots on the ground is where it's at, and Obama's community organizing skills are where it's at--regardless of how much those speaking at the convention sneered at it.
Virginia Conservative said...
Minnesota is not going Republican, and, if it does, it is a McCain landslide and doesn't matter anyway.
Wow! VC is even more defeatist than CBS News when it comes to McLame(brain)'s chances in Minnesota. CBS has Minnesota listed as a battleground state.
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