Due to McCain's bounce in the polls post-convention, our new list of battleground states has changed. According to our current projections, John McCain would win 274-264.
This is different from the pie chart you see in the top left of the site, which averages the electoral vote based on simulation runs. This mid-month update simply gives each state's EVs in full to our projected winner, and we add the totals. It's essentially the same split as the Bush-Kerry race, with Iowa flipped from the Republican column to the penumbra zone for Obama, and a narrow win for Obama in New Mexico.
With Colorado sitting at McCain by 0.3%, any tiny movement and a 9-EV flip would change the winner of the 2008 presidential race. As we leave Las Vegas today for Gallup, New Mexico, we're going from the frying pan into the fire of the ground game battle.
One of the notable aspects of our Penumbra tables below is that the national tracking polls are having a large undue influence on states that aren't getting polled as much. Notice that California, Illinois and Massachusetts have entered our Obama Penumbra chart, but also notice on the righthand column of our individual state polling that it's not because Obama's getting poor polling in these states. For example, our projection model shows Obama winning California by 6.9% but that no individual poll has ever been that low, and that nearly all CA polls show double digits.
For McCain's Penumbra states, you'll notice a lot of "former" battleground states in this column, some of which we believe could still be battlegrounds and will re-tighten after McCain's post-convention bounce fades and the debates begin.
Overall, the national tracking polls have had a more distorted effect on states that don't get polled as often. Colorado, by contrast, has barely moved because it does. In fact, Colorado and Ohio were the states which flipped since our last update in Mid-August. Each moved fewer than three points, but that changes our winner-take-all projection.
Thanks for being patient with us as Nate and I are each on the road (albeit in different places). We'll be checking in with our Las Vegas update later today and of course Today's Polls.
9.16.2008
538's Battlegrounds as of Mid-September
@ 5:07 PM
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469 comments
inkstain: ZING!
"PA and MI and even WI are much easier for McC to flip than for BO to win WV."
Agree, but "much easier" and "easy" are too different things.
Obama has led every Wisconsin poll. He has led 27 out of 30 of the PA and MI polls, with 1 tie and 2 McCain leads (one coming from the same pollster that put Obama ahead in Arizona.)
None of those states are flipping in a close election.
Have you noticed there has been talk all of sudden that one of the reasons for the subprime mess was the desire to extend more mortgages to African-Americans and that Obama supported the easing of credit standards to accomodate this.
"Undecideds and soft Obama suport that will melt away on ED will make WV big for McC."
Has there ever been a prediction you made that didn't involve things looking better for McCain on Election Da than they have at any point to date?
"Have you noticed there has been talk all of sudden that one of the reasons for the subprime mess was the desire to extend more mortgages to African-Americans and that Obama supported the easing of credit standards to accomodate this."
Accuse Obama of trying to help people realize the American dream.
Do it. I dare you.
Send Biden & Clinton to WV.
:)
God I love how weak the Republicans arguments against Obama have gotten. You guys are really, really slipping. You had a better chance with Ayers than this tenuous fluff you're throwing out. You guys have had your attacks nerfed. I would almost feel sorry for you, but we've got an election to win here and there's not time for a pity party. By the end of October McCain's only pitch is gonna be "come on America, come on guys give us another chance...please?!"
So, so sad. Caribou Barbie couldn't save you. That Hail Mary got batted away in the endzone.
Sedi:
I think Wi was masking a tredn. Everyone is now calling WI a toss up. There is something out there that we have not seen. Chuck Todd of the ultra-left MSNBC was asserting this today.
Even so me being right 2 out of 3 times has to be a record.
colorado assassin: God forbid. They are needed in Ohio and Florida.
"I think Wi was masking a tredn. Everyone is now calling WI a toss up. There is something out there that we have not seen. Chuck Todd of the ultra-left MSNBC was asserting this today."
So, for the record, Wisconsin is another state where McCain will finish far better than he's polled at any point to date?
Any state where you don't predict that?
petekent: Chucky is on the TeeVee. TeeVee can't prognosticate, or they'll be accused of being in the tank for the candidate in whse favor they are predicting the state will move. But we down here not on TeeVee aren't constricted by the same worries, so we can look over the numbers dispassionately and state boldly that the "trend" WI was "masking" was naked, unmasked post-convention bounce, as predicted by Nate's model and everyone with a lick of common sense.
Tito,
As I said in my first post this evening at the end of the prior page, I think Mccain is about to enter a "pause" period in the campaign and not work too hard to change the dynmaic. He is going to let the Rep Party condition the marketplace so as to aid the Congressional Ballot with its massive War Chest.
Between Rangel and the Energy Bill, they have found some great issues.
McCain is waiting for the first debate to make his next major move.
Obama will be appearing to swing at the air.
"Have you noticed there has been talk all of sudden that one of the reasons for the subprime mess was the desire to extend more mortgages to African-Americans and that Obama supported the easing of credit standards to accomodate this."
Or what about Phil Gramm telling Congress to loosen up on trying to regulate predatory lenders?
Trying to get people into home ownership (with responsible mortgages they can pay back) is an honorable goal. Selling people loans with a short, attractive introductory payment followed by an incredible leap to obscene interest rates, and misleading them about it? That's criminal. And because they had people like Phil Gramm getting the government off their back, they made money (on the origination fees) hand over fist. And now we are all suffering for it.
Pete Kent has only two modes.
When McCain is doing well, he cheerleads like a clueless moron, telling us all how McCain is going to win.
When McCain is doing poorly, he cheerleads like a clueless moron, telling us all how McCain is going to win.
Since I know pigs are the "in thing" for this election cycle, just remember the old saying about casting pearls before swine.
McCasket's brain:
http://www.flickr.com/photos/earthpro/2794220232/sizes/o/
koz: I was just about to suggest petekent relax, unclench and have a margarita. -}
"Obama will be appearing to swing at the air."
I doubt Obama plans to swing at Palin's head.
AxmxZ:
Agreed. Obama needs more heavy hitters here in the Rockies.
McCasket has more TV commercials as well, however, Obama appears to be picking up the intensity here.
Inkstain:
My expectation is that McCain will win the election handily and when the polls close in PA we will know the tale of the tape.
i expect that he will have at least 525 percent of the national poplular vote, 55% would be the most. Obama will get 42-45% and the thrid parties will get 2-3%.
On that basis, I anticipate McCain will masurably outpoll virtually everywhere on election day than he does today.
Isn't it natural to think that of the winner?
Fair enough. We'll just wait and see.
Charles M. Kozierok said...
"Obama will be appearing to swing at the air."
I doubt Obama plans to swing at Palin's head.
AHahaha Best line I've seen in a long time.
Actually Allan Greenspan caused this with too many years of loose money following 9-11.
"Actually Allan Greenspan caused this with too many years of loose money following 9-11."
It's not about who caused it. It's about who will get blamed :)
Agreed WI is at the end of the possible for McCain. It or OR.
Where do you think the last possible stop is for the Obama train?
Surely not as far as WV?
Wow. I actually find myself in agreement with petekent on something! Call the press!
Greenspan's pawprints are all over this bitch, just like Gramm's.
Blame: Pelosi and Reid!
Bush was busy with the war and those guys have done nothing with their Congress.
"Where do you think the last possible stop is for the Obama train?"
If things broke spectacularly his way, Montana and Florida.
Swing and a miss. By the time Congress belonged to Reid and Pelosi, the mortgage crisis has essentially already taken place. All that remained was its unraveling.
Pelosi and reid have done nothing despite a crisis unfolding under their noses. You are worng on this there's blame enuf to go around.
The energy bill passes in the House, 236-189. Republicans whine...."but it isn't enough drilling!" You're in the minority, you're not going to get all that you want, the Democrats offer a compromise and you spit in their faces? And Pres. Bush threatens a veto.
This is why nothing is getting done in Congress. I'm not blaming Republicans solely, but this really seems like a fair compromise to me between the "drill baby drill" nonsense and the alternative energy approach and the GOP is stomping their feet like spoiled babies. I guess after 6 years with complete control (during which they screwed everything up), they can't stand the idea that they actually have to negotiate with Democrats now.
I'll be interested to see how McCain reacts to this. If he's truly bipartisan he'll at least acknowledge the effort from the Democrats (even if he opposes the specifics of the bill). Fifty bucks says he blasts it.
Ink:
I dunno about MT, but FL for sure. I think under the right circumstances Obama could take OH and, drumroll please . . .
Indiana
Just what exactly do you think they should have done? The mortgages have by that point already been sold, resold, and resold again. The horse may have still been visible somewhere on the horizon, but make no mistake, by the time Dems took power, it had bolted. We can argue all day about whether the door had been adequately closed and propped shut post factum, but that won't get us - or more importantly, McCain - anywhere.
My WV point really dates back to the primaries though. He completely ignored them. How many people 2 years ago would've said Iowa would go for a black man by quite a large margin? Why is WV so plagued by racism that Obama can't compete there but he can rack up total blow outs in places like Idaho, Kansas, or Nebraska? He's only down 8.7 in model in WV. That doesn't sound like a state so full of racists that they can't stomach the thought of a black man as president.
petekent: Obama can only take Indiana in a landslide. A battleground it certainly isn't...
Justin:
The minority never even got to read the bill. It contains no incentives for states to allow drilling even tho it gives them the say so on whether to allow it. It is illusory legislation and will be exposed as rank poltical trickery.
drew: Demographics in West Virginia and Iowa just aren't the same. The culture is completely different. Levels of education, exposure to diversity...
Axmzzz:
you were not follwing the debate. the point was to predict the last state the candidate would take in a landslide. In my view for mccain it is OR and WI, for BO it's IN. Nothing redder or bluer will tip. Mccain will never get NJ this year.
WV isn't as much of a long shot as people are thinking. It's gone Republican 4 times in the last 10 elections (72, 84, 00, 04). So why the surprise? I think the racial divide that was hyped during the primaries was in part a media creation, but also, there could be some reverse Bradley going on too. No one really knows anything about WV because it hasn't been a focal of the election this far, just an assumed red state. I think it'll got red, but I won't be surprised by a 52-48 split either.
In 1988 West Virginia was one of Dukakis' 10 states. So, lo be unto you who make those comparisons... or something like that.
The last state for Barry?... Hm. Well, North Carolina is looking increasingly like more of a stretch than Indiana or West Virginia... It's kind of hard to say right now. It'l be clearer by the time of the first debate.
Georgia?
It really is amazing what a single (defanged*) branch of government can do in less than two years of bare majority^#!
^ "The strategy of being obstructionist can work or fail...and so far it's working for us. Democrats are taking the blame for not getting anything done."
(R)Trent Lott, Roll Call, April 18, 2007
# So far in this first year of the 110th Congress, there have been 72 motions to stop filibusters, most on the Iraq war but also on routine issues like reauthorizing Amtrak funding. There were 68 such motions in the full two years of the previous Congress, 53 in 1987-88 and 23 in 1977-78. In 1967-68, there were 5 such votes, one of them on a plan to amend cloture itself, which failed.
^ Of the 132 signing statements by President Bush, 110 of them have addressed specific constitutional issues, typically regarding attempts by Congress to infringe upon Constitutional powers specifically delegated to the Executive Branch.
Just to clarify, I do not for a second think Obama has any chance to win WV. My thinking just revolves around would it have been possible for him to win it if he had treated it like he's treated CO or FL.
Drew:
Pepple in WV are plain folks but know when people are mocking them. years of being the brunt of national k=jokes has made them sensitive to slights. Obama dissed them in the primaries and they will never forgive him.
He'll sooner get KY!
petekent: No way, he'll get WV before KY.
Georgia? You have a scenario where you win 42 states????? MS before GA.
NC is a good one.
I agree with the demographic differences argument for a democratic primary battle. I'm not sure I completely agree that it translates to this general.
Hey, xkcd.com gave you a shout-out!
http://xkcd.com/477/
I think Florida goes before Indiana. I know it's close, but it just seems like one of those states where 50.1% are entrenched against Obama.
I dunno. In theory, if Obama made a serious push for WV, I think he'd take it. I agree that he seriously dissed them in the primaries, and that's why WV isn't voting for him now. I can't figure out the logic here: Obama's spending heavily in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, which means he's getting the West Virginia markets anyways. He could probably get 5% more there just by spending a day there. Internal polling must show it to be a total waste, or something. I don't get it.
I doubt there is a state in the country where he'd get more votes/hour spent. But TV and volunteers won't cut it.
Petekent, I agree with your assessment that Obama dissed them in the primaries. That's where my thinking and questioning stems from. I think the "racist West Virginians" is a ridiculous argument that stinks of mainstream media simple-mindedness. There is little reason for me to believe that West Virginia is any more racist than any other place in the U.S. If anyone could provide me with a reason to believe that, please do so.
Obama's ground game and turnout of newly registered voters vs. Bradley Effect
Honestly, that's what it all comes down to.
Pete Kent said-
"As I said in my first post this evening at the end of the prior page, I think Mccain is about to enter a "pause" period in the campaign and not work too hard to change the dynmaic. He is going to let the Rep Party condition the marketplace so as to aid the Congressional Ballot with its massive War Chest."
Would that be meno-pause that McCain is entering?
I do not see WV flipping either. It may end up being fairly close though. Stranger things have happened.
Does campaigning by surrogates consist entirely of doing rallies? Is this likely to be very helpful?
I'm just wondering...say Obama put both Clintons in Ohio for the next 2 months. How many points do you think that would be worth in the polls?
Corruption? In government? Say it ain't so!
One thing that bjb and pete seem to be forgetting is that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac... DIDN'T DEAL WITH INDIVIDUAL LOANS.
They bought up bundled mortgages from banks and lenders on the assumption that the originating lenders had been working with people who could possibly pay off the loans.
This happened NATIONWIDE. As people began to default on their debts, the originating lenders had been payed, and left the next financial institution holding the bag. Fannie and Freddie were at the top, a hybrid privatized government institution that had to be held up or risk global economic damage.
So, what happened to make a system that had been running for 50+ years suddenly collapse?
Could it have been the loosening of Federal Regulations keeping financial institutions separate, written by the then-head of the Committee on Housing and Banking, One Phil Gramm?
The same Phil Gramm who received over $1 million in campaign contributions from financial institutions from 94-2000?
The same Phil Gramm who became a lobbyist for UBS, asking congress to relax laws against "Predatory Lending", and made 700k+ in one year for that service?
The same Phil Gramm who claimed that this was a mental recession, and that America is a nation of whiners?
Yes, that Phil Gramm, former senator for Texas, former economic adviser to John McCain.
Naturally he's seeing it all fine and dandy; he made out like a bandit. I just hope that $700k was worth it. It's worth $91 billion+ to the rest of the taxpayers.
And if you think Gramm's been separated from the McCain campaign, consider that just last week, he was trying to pressure Ron Paul to endorse McCain.
Gramm's the man who threw the economy in the can.
No matter what Jim Johnson did as CEO, you can't say he wrote the bills and directly pressured congress to create this environment. Phil Gramm did.
Most we dems can take the blame for (considering the republicans controlled the Congress in 1999), is letting Bill Clinton sign Gramm's bill into law (although, that bill had a very important addition to prevent the merging institutions from selling consumer information, which was an extremely good thing to have.
This campaign has followed a trendline of its own:
Obama: "Change"
McCain: "I'm About Change Too!"
Obama: "McCain Lies"
McCain: "Obama Lies More!"
Obama: "Economy In Crisis"
McCain: "Economy Is Sound...Wait, I Mean I Think Its In Crisis Too!"
Obama: "Enough!"
McCain: "Ya...Enough!" (I chuckled when I heard McCain's passionate quote on this just today)
One side just follows the talking points of the other. The McCain Camp is trying desperately to drown-out Obama...by actually REPEATING him. And heck, why not? Its a 'sound' strategy, that for his base at least, is working wonderfully. And could even confuse some swing-voters down the stretch.
John McCain
Election First
Drew said-
"I think the "racist West Virginians" is a ridiculous argument that stinks of mainstream media simple-mindedness. There is little reason for me to believe that West Virginia is any more racist than any other place in the U.S. If anyone could provide me with a reason to believe that, please do so."
I can do the opposite, sort of. It is not part of Virginia and is "West Virginia" instead because it opposed secession during the Civil War.
I can do the opposite, sort of. It is not part of Virginia and is "West Virginia" instead because it opposed secession during the Civil War.
Which always brings a fun question: Why is the Deep South, once solidly Democrat in the 1860s, now just as solidly Republican? Same question for the Once-Republican Northeast? Economic issues? Cultural issues? Race issues? Party Changes? There's plenty of fun discussion to be had debating why two heavily devisive portions of the country both flipped Party Affiliation...and are yet again quite divisive in their politics.
Why is the Deep South, once solidly Democrat in the 1860s, now just as solidly Republican? Same question for the Once-Republican Northeast? Economic issues? Cultural issues? Race issues? Party Changes? There's plenty of fun discussion to be had debating why two heavily devisive portions of the country both flipped Party Affiliation...and are yet again quite divisive in their politics.
On the issue of Civil Rights, the Democrats in the 50's and 60's split among Northern/Southern lines. The Northern coalition won, and the Southern coalition temporarily created the Dixiecrat party, which eventually more or less was absolved by the Republican party. Once LBJ signed the Civil Rights Act of 1964, this split was pretty much permanent. Legend has it that while signing that Act, LBJ said "We (Democrats) have lost the South for a generation."
Long story short, the South is generally racist compared to the rest of the country/world and the GOP (especially starting with Nixon) played to the Racism in order to win power.
nicholas;
Long story short, you have a jaded and one-sided view of history quite well framed in order to make you feel good about yourself.
You should have started your little lesson with "In order to support the belief of my moral superiority, this is what I believe happened with the political parties..."
Oz.
Congratulations to Congratulations to President-Elect McCain!!!
...for filling every comment section on this blog with random nonsensical prognostications!!! Nevermind the sophisticated statistical models, everyone pay attention to Congratulations to President-Elect McCain!!! now!!!
What great insights can we expect tomorrow?!!! I'll bet it has to do with Obama losing in a landslide in the future space where Congratulations to President-Elect McCain!!! resides!!!
Stupid liberals, or "libs" as someone once said -- and Congratulations to President-Elect McCain!!! quickly repeated it!!!
filistro said...
M Simon... after the posts reach 200, they no longer update on this page. To access posts beyond that point you need to go to the "Post Comments" screen, then click on "newer" posts in the upper right-hand corner.
OK. Thanks! I hope you read this. :-)
Morg said...
I'd love to hear from some of the stable Republicans on the board whether they'd be comfortable with Palin as President should McCain keel over (assuming they were elected). Would she be a beacon of moral certainty and lead us into a war with a rallying cry of "God's will"?
Most people don't get Palin. She is a Libertarian-Republican from the most libertarian state in the union.
Her personal views are just that. She Governs like Reagan - hard core socon beliefs - leave us alone governing style.
As to Palin becoming President if Johnny Mac dies in office? Don't tease me dude.
BTW if any one is going to put an end to the Drug War it will be Palin.
Ink,
Proportional representation is bad. It factionalizes government.
Our system drives the parties to the center. More stable.
In order to move the government you have to first move the people. A good idea.
Yeah. No doubt the Rs are racists.
Which is why when Clarence Thomas got nominated he was called an Uncle Tom. By the left.
No racism there.
His opinions on Kelo and Raich were outstanding. But the "real party of the little people™" doesn't like him.
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