I caught Rick Warren on the re-broadcast of his Larry King Live interview right now. When pressed by King on the fact that John McCain had not in fact been in the so-called "cone of silence" during the first half-hour of Barack Obama's interview, Warren raised the point that McCain had been in the company of the Secret Service, and implied that the Secret Service would have informed him if McCain had done anything untoward.
Um, what?
Saying that John McCain was in the company of the Secret Service is no more informative than saying that John McCain was breathing air.
And when did the Secret Service become the Secret Police? The Secret Service personnel assigned to McCain have exactly one duty: to protect John McCain. It is not their duty to rat on John McCain; in fact, you can argue that it is explicitly their duty not to rat on John McCain.
...Looks like CNN just put the transcript up; here is the exact quote: KING: From Lake Forest, California, we welcome -- it's always great to see him, a frequent visitor to this show. Not frequent enough, by the way. Rick Warren, pastor of the Saddleback Church, best-selling author of "The Purpose Driven Life." and on Saturday, he conducted those interviews with Senators Obama and McCain at the Saddleback Civil Forum on the Presidency.
Warren finally gives the right response at the end: "I just have to accept his integrity on that". That's all any of us really can do, I suppose.
Let's take care of one thing right away. You introduced Obama and said that Senator McCain and said he was in a cone of silence.
WARREN: Yes.
KING: Now, obviously, Rick Warren would never tell a mistruth.
Did you not know that he was in an automobile?
WARREN: I didn't know they had put -- hadn't put him into the Green Room yet. No, I didn't. When we walked in, I knew he hadn't been in about 10 minutes earlier. And I figured within the 10 minutes we got there, they had put him in.
The whole thing is really kind of bogus, Larry. The Supreme -- I mean, the Secret Service were with him the whole time. Then our facility's staff -- our security staff were with him. And he was put in a building completely separate from everybody else. And there's no way he could hear. I've been talking about this all day. There was a rumor going around that he watched the program on a monitor in the Green Room that we had him in.
Well, there's only one problem with it. My staff, Chuck Taylor, disconnected that thing two days before it happened. So if he -- if they had happened to turn it on, it would have been all just static.
And both Barack and John agreed to the terms that said we will not listen to the other's, we will not get the questions in advance.
Actually, what happened is I did give Obama one in advance that I didn't get to Senator McCain because he wasn't there. Right before we started, I wanted to tell them there's going to be one question that I'm going to ask you for a commitment on. And I didn't think that was fair to ask for a commitment publicly without setting them up. And it had to do with orphans.
And so I did get to tell Senator Obama about that question. But because Senator McCain wasn't there, he hadn't -- he didn't have that question yet.
KING: All right.
Well, could he have heard it in the car, though, if he was still arriving at the event?
WARREN: You know what, if -- not a chance. The Secret Service would have reported it. When he showed up, there were -- and he says he didn't. You know, I...
KING: All right.
WARREN: ...I just have to accept his integrity on that.
But why, then, all this crap about the Secret Service? Why all the bluster from McCain? Why not a simple denial?
The assertion that McCain had the opportunity to cheat is undeniable; the suggestion that he actually did cheat is probably unprovable. But paradoxically, the McCain campaign have focused all their attention on addressing the former question, while not really bothering to refute the latter.
It is a dishonorable and shifty little thing to do.
But you know what? Politically speaking, it was probably wise. Two of the generally feistier Democratic surrogates that I saw on MSNBC today, Claire McCaskill and Steve McMahon, wouldn't touch the issue with a ten-foot pole, lest they be accused of being whiners. This attests to the strength of McCain's brand -- they weren't about to point out the dishonorable actions of an Honorable™ man.
Now, fundamentally, you can really only swim upstream if you know that you're going to have the wherewithal to complete the journey. It may already be too late in the election -- after months of disclaiming at every possible opportunity that they honor and respect Senator McCain's service -- for the Democrats to try and impeach certain elements of his brand. In which case, McCaskill and McMahon were right to punt on the question.
But it's worth remembering that McCain won the Republican primaries in large part because the other candidates were so deferential to him. Rudy Giuliani praised McCain incessantly during the debates of last summer, at which point McCain's campaign was in tatters and didn't seem like much of a threat. But guess where Rudy's supporters went once McCain won New Hampshire?
The Republicans, of course, have no such inhibitions when it comes to Democrats, which is why they went right at Al Gore's strengths, and right at John Kerry's strengths, and are going right at Barack Obama's strengths -- and, importantly, did so early in those respective campaigns. It's one of the big reasons that they win elections.
8.19.2008
Yet Another Conegate Thread
by Nate Silver @ 1:39 AM...see also controversy, mccain
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111 comments
grumble, grumble, grumble...
Nate, why do you keep coming back to this non-issue. This site is going way downhill. You need to stick to numbers, because once you express an opinion, it's so biased. Why don't you stick to baseball.
grumble, grumble, grumble...
Okay, now that I've pre-trolled this thread, let me say that Democratic operatives do show WAY too much restraint with McCain. Frankly, he has done some remarkable 180s on fairly major issues (torture, taxes, long-term occupation of Iraq, etc.) and he never seems to get called on it.
Personally, I'm uncertain that McCain actually heard any of the questions beforehand (other than the ones he was given), but this seems like an instance of him essentially lying by suggesting that he was in the cone of silence. To me, Warren comes across not as a conspirator, but as too trusting. Democrats shouldn't fight dirty, but they should be hitting McCain a LOT harder than they are now.
The whole thing seems like a tempest in a teacup. I don't think he would have benefited a whole lot from hearing the answers--despite the amount of time Obama spent dancing around the questions, he would have had very little time to prep.
Nonetheless, if you think he benefited from it, a simple question: did McCain seem to do considerably better during the first third or so of the debate than he did during the last third or so? It's considerably less likely that he would have been able to listen as it came time for him to go on stage, so if he didn't stumble there, it was probably just because he was performing well and comfortable in front of the crowd.
The Secret Service telling the good pastor? I love it. They'd be locked in jail if the revealed a candidate/protectees whereabouts and actions.
And why the Hell is Warren carrying water for John McCain. He should just come out and say what has to be the truth: (1) He did know that McCain wasn't in the room, but said otherwise anyway; and (2) no one, besides people who aren't going to tell, can actually vouch for McCain.
If McCain is battling anything on this accusation, it is the reputation of Republicans that have gone before him. It's a no-win for Barack, because he can never prove it, and even if he did, no one would be surprised, so let it go and hit McCain on veteran's benefits.
McCain was prepped, he answered the questions too quickly including interrupting Rick Warren mid-question (Yes, Yes, ...). I expected his responses to be belabored like the reponse to the viagra/birth control question.
I don't think Rick Warren was involved. My sense was that Rick Warren liked Obama and enjoyed McCains folk stories. I call the event a tie with an assist to Mr. Blackberry.
Can this be the last Conegate thread? Everyone is in their respective camps on this. Rick Warren deferring to the Secret Service is amazingly stupid, but, what are we supposed to do past that? He arrived late, the campaign isn't touching why he arrived late and barely even addressing that point. The McCain camp will play defense against cheating, and any more push against it is a losing proposition since implicit cheating can't be proved.
McCain was late, he was unsecured, and it's only fair to assume he got an unfair advantage. But I think it's just time to move on now.
I'll be glad when Obama announces his VP, the conventions start-up, and we get into the meat of the campaign. This shit is just becoming like some horrendous death rattle of the summer doldrums.
they flipped a coin, it could have just as easily been the other way around. who cares?
Obama needs to take a cue from the McCain campaign and find a line of attack and stick with it. In my mind the most effective attack would based on the two John McCain's. Contrast the old John McCain (agents of intolerance, against tax cuts for the rich, even some lines about using restraint in military force) against the new McPanderbear. Make him into a flip-flopper without actually using that label (that label has become hackneyed and tired anyway). You don't directly call him dishonorable but by showing how's he's completely reversed himself to pander to the far right you attack him on his greatest strengths, honor and integrity.
Pick a few issues that really paint him as a sellout and make a commercial about each one that asks at the end "What happened to the old John McCain?" and end with that picture of him hugging the president, implying he sold himself to the Bush wing to get the nomination. This strategy will work especially well if he chooses Mitt Romney because then it's just one more thing John McCain was willing to sell out on in order to win. We've got a whole treasure trove of disparaging looks and remarks McCain made toward Romney. Plus, as an added bonus you get to put "old" next to John McCain without directly referencing his age!
The Republicans have the right approach you have to attack your opponents strengths, not their weaknesses, and McCain's only real strength is the perception of him as a Maverick who is willing to buck party line. By suggesting he sold out his ideals to win the nomination you attack both his maverick image and his integrity.
God! There are so many wonderful possibilities with that line of attack. For instance, by hitting him hard on his sellout of immigration reform, you do all of the above plus you remind Hispanics that he specifically sold them down the river. Target moderates by showing his agents of intolerance line and then his embrace of Hagee and Falwell. Actually with all of these lines of attack you both remind conservatives of his past apostasies and moderates of his current flip-flop induced conservative/pander position. And if you hit hard and get it to stick if he tries to go back to his moderate positions at any time you just use the old line "there he goes again."
I'm so excited I want to make these commercials myself! Who wants to join in the fun and help!
I think the Democratic Party has adopted the loser mentality. They are afraid of their own shadows, and scared of punching the bully in the nose. Until the Democratic Party loses its fear, it will never really win. Even if it wins elections, the Democrats will be afraid to do what they really want to do.
Maybe Obama will win, and maybe Obama will lose. But either way, we're not really going to have a Democratic administration, because the Democratic Party is afraid of its own shadow.
The secret service quote was absurd.
Ummm its in the name.
They call it SECRET service for a reason.
Remember during the Monica Lewinsky scandal how there was a really big question whether they could be subpoenaed. They would never say anything without a subpoena.
I think this story has gone as far as it can go.
McCain, through design or simple carelessness, didn't live up to the rules made to prevent cheating. Did he cheat?
I don't think so, but we'll never know and he could have.
Basically if I was him I would have shown up on time so nobody could even raise the question.
Ultimately, we know as much as we're going to. Lets move on.
Has anyone pointed out that the truly ironic thing is that the "cone of silence" has never worked? If you think of it this way, there's really no controversy at all.
Pick a few issues that really paint him as a sellout and make a commercial about each one that asks at the end "What happened to the old John McCain?" and end with that picture of him hugging the president, implying he sold himself to the Bush wing to get the nomination.
I think they are doing this. They are running a lot of ads comparing him to the Bush administration. This is good and they should do this. I have no problem with negative campaigning as long as it deals with real issues and is grounded in fact.
I think if the Dems started running swift boat type ads, it would backfire enormously.
Lets take a step back and remember that civility is one of the main reasons Obama is popular and Bush isn't.
Warren is nothing but a right-wing shill. He claimed both candidates would be asked the same questions and right from the get go that was a lie.
Question #1)
QUESTION TO OBAMA: These first set of questions deal with your personal life as a leader and I’m not going to do this with any other segment, but as pastor I’ve got some verses that have to do with leadership. The first issue is the area of listening. There is a verse in Proverbs that says fools think they need no advice but the wise listen to other people. Who are the wisest three people you know in your life AND who are you going to rely on heavily in your administration?
QUESTION TO MCCAIN: This first question deals with leadership and the personal life of leadership. First question, who were the three wisest people that you know THAT you would rely on heavily in an administration?
Might explain the different way they questions were answered! Although, while Obama was having a back and forth with Warren, McCain was pandering and campaigning "MY FRIENDS"! Nothing like a little "Cross in the Dirt" lie to trick the most gullible group of voters in America, "My Friends"!
Nate,
Look, man....I have defended your right to keep with this "story" as it's your website and may of course do what you wish...but I really think you are reaching here as are many others. What I mean is that for a website that emphasizes facts and whose users pound the "bring facts not assumptions" angle so frequently, it really appears to be somewhat hypocritical.
Now yes I am a McCain supporter and I will freely admit that subjects me to my own biases, however I will point out that I reject a lot of the BS that is spread about Obama for the simple reason that there is little (and sometimes no) evidence to support the claim so I do try my best to be objective.
I simply feel that for a group that is so steadfast about having facts to back up their opinions...you, and some others, really seem willing to reach hard on this.
I came to this site because it offered a unique interpretation of the dynamics of the election and because of its analysis of the numbers.
Seeing this site get more and more politicized has saddened me, and as time has gone on I've seen less and less of the numbers and demographic analysis that made me first come here.
I do hope that you get back to your in-depth predictions and maps you had during the primaries. If I want to listen to progressive talking points, I can - and do - go straight to dailykos.
Nate,
Give it up, man. You're clearly quite intelligent so you must understand that you're coming off as too biased and too eager to circle the wagons for your guy's poor performance.
Can't you just accept that McCain did a good job? Your guy does not have exclusive ownership rights to the ability to sell himself in public. If he did then he wouldn't have bombed in the ABC debate with Hillary. Then too, many Obama supporters were quick to cry "lynching" when the entire world saw that Obama had the audacity to choke in front of a live audience.
It is what it is. And it's time to move on. Dot org.
so let it go and hit McCain on veteran's benefits.
That might not be an angle Obama wants to take. He's had some pretty questionable votes in that regard.
>> Lets take a step back and remember that civility is one of the main reasons Obama is popular and Bush isn't.
You're right. Obama has boxed himself in on being pure as the wind-driven snow. He was to "above this sort of old politics". That's all he has to sell, because he doesn't have experience.
No one ever said McCain wasn't tough. And while McCain did indeed say he would wage a "respectful" campaign, some light-hearted jabs comparing Obama to a celebrities didn't invite the Obama response of using the race card. It's almost as if Obama has no sense of proportionality. Either that or he thought that a friendly media would help him get away with it.
David Gergen is right. The tide is starting to turn.
You're clearly quite intelligent so you must understand that you're coming off as too biased and too eager to circle the wagons for your guy's poor performance.
I am actually quite surprised by this and I agree with you Adam. You know sometimes you win and sometimes you lose. What I am reading in regards to this situation is more of a temper tantrum by steadfast Obama supporters instead of simply saying "UGH....bad time to take a vacation. He'd better be sharper next time."
Either that or he thought that a friendly media would help him get away with it.
Well I realize that I am going to get ruthlessly attacked for saying this, but I think people are confusing Obama's eloquence with intelligence. That's not to say he's stupid, simply that he may not be quite as smart as people think he is. He certainly appears to be buying into his own hype in a lot of ways and he's made some comments that even some of the hardcore liberals I know have been left shaking their heads about.
Now, Obama's supporters here will argue that those people are idiots who misunderstood what their man as saying but they forget that a fool's vote counts the same as one by a genius.
clarkejeffrey said...
I think they are doing this. They are running a lot of ads comparing him to the Bush administration. This is good and they should do this. I have no problem with negative campaigning as long as it deals with real issues and is grounded in fact.
Yes! That is what's so damn infuriating about the "no negative" mantra. It's not so negative if it's based on fact, and the Democratic party needs to come down off the pedestal and start doing some of the heavy lifting. I know they ran some ads in Nevada about McCain and Yucca Mountain, so maybe there is hope. Localized ads are fertile ground - Colorado and water, Ohio and DHL, even the Montana bear paternity DNA thing that McCain slammed at Saddleback - McCain voted for it!
This is why Obama needs a Biden, or Webb, or even Clinton because this above the fray strategy isn't gonna cut it. Swiftboat, no. But you can't win if you don't take your opponent to task.
Scott919 -
Well, I support Obama, but you're pretty much spot on with Conegate. I wouldn't use words like reaching or hypocritical (as I didn't above) but this is coming to a point of beating a dead horse. This issue has run it's course. So, hey, there's something an Obama supporter and McCain supporter can find common ground on.
this above the fray strategy isn't gonna cut it.
I agree with you. There's a reason why candidates go negative....IT WORKS!!!! Personally I would be thrilled if all candidates stayed positive but the problem IMHO is that people pay more attention to the negative because for the most part American society just LOVES a good juicy scandal. Is it right? Hell no. Is it productive? Absolutely not. But I do think it's reality.
So, hey, there's something an Obama supporter and McCain supporter can find common ground on.
Oh I think we could find common ground on a lot of things, brother. In reality I am quite moderate. I agree with the Democrats on a lot of things and frankly I believe that total dominance of government by either party is a recipe for disaster. I simply happen to agree with the Republicans on issues that mean the most to me.
Why does this entire issue sound like that little 'black box on Bush's back during debates' incident?
Obama did poorly in the debate. McCain did well. Maybe its because McCain does town hall meetings all the time and Obama does not.
McCain had the possibility to cheat, but no one can prove that he did. So some will crucify him on suspicion alone.
But McCain did as well through the entire thing as he did during the part where he could have possibly listened in.
Tempest in a teapot and some fellas looking to justify their guy's poor showing.
Wow like who cares. Not like anyone with a brain would vote for Obama anyway... and McCain is not much different from him.
All this projection -- who cares! They have it fixed so you can't have someone who really cares about this country and is not working for Goldman Sachs... instead just these two idiot globalists who will both sell us out in an instant.
Scott919-
I wouldn't say go as far as scandal or grotesque mudslinging. But certain negatives can work. Or at the least, need to be used to compliment the positive. Going around telling everyone that you're the better choice and that you're better than the old politics is nice (and I don't doubt that Obama does have sincerity in that regard). But that message does no good if you can't and don't go out there and highlight the low points of your opponent.
Obama is doing it in this lengthy long-winded way: go through some points, contrast to John McCain, and then chuckle it off like it's no big deal. It is a big deal, those are the things that will get voters to make a choice. I don't mean to sound hard on Obama, and I've supported him since before he even announced his run. But this is the homestretch and it's time give it some elbow grease and get a little dirty.
By the way, I live in Alabama, so I'm more moderate than I might be tagged, too. There's a class of Southern Democrat that doesn't get too much attention these days, but we still exist. We're just overpowered by the religious right down here.
I wouldn't say go as far as scandal or grotesque mudslinging. But certain negatives can work.
I would agree with that. You made a great above when you said "if it's true, it's not really going negative" and I would fully agree. As a McCain supporter I will tell you straight up there are things about his views I don't agree with (abortion is a great example) but they are not getting any play and Obama is not hammering the point. The other day I said the Democrats were snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. You don't have to get nasty...but put up a fight at least.
Obama is doing it in this lengthy long-winded way: go through some points, contrast to John McCain, and then chuckle it off like it's no big deal. It is a big deal, those are the things that will get voters to make a choice.
Again I agree. He will talk WAY above the average Joe's head and if he continues it's going to kill him. My THEORY on Obama is that he talk so passionately that he inspires...but I am not sure people really understand what the hell he is talking about. People want quick, concise, and to the point...unfortunately for Obama that what McCain gives them.
There's a class of Southern Democrat that doesn't get too much attention these days, but we still exist. We're just overpowered by the religious right down here.
I am no fan of the religious right. They drive me crazy.
About 16 minutes into the event, McCain asked Warren if he would get to the issue of judges (they were talking about abortion and then gay marriage). If McCain knew that question was coming, why would he need to ask that question - interrupting the flow of his speech and taking away from his limited time.
I was disappointed in Rev. Warren's response. He behaved almost as a McCain surrogate. I think he realized as soon as it was out of his mouth how nonsensical his "the Secret Service would have reported it" comment was, but why did he feel the need to make excuses for McCain in the first place? (And he had floated the "Secret Service" idea with Rick Sanchez, too, saying McCain had been in a "cone of Secret Service.")
And the controversy is not "bogus." Warren said McCain was in a "cone of silence" and he wasn't, period. That is going to legitimately cast suspicion on exactly what he was doing while not in that "cone" and whether he had an unfair advantage. (To any conservatives who don't think so, if the situation were reversed and Obama had gone second, and it had turned out he was in his motorcade when he was supposed to be in a "cone of silence", can you really honestly say YOU'D shrug it off?)
I don't know whether McCain "cheated" or not. (I suspect he did, but I don't actually know.) But he should NEVER have had the opportunity to cheat.
I was really hoping to see Warren admit that he and his church had badly mishandled that portion of the forum and apologize. (Even if he really did believe McCain was in his "cone", he should NOT have started the forum before verifying that McCain had arrived and was where he was supposed to be.) Rev. Warren's behavior following this has made me more suspicious of him and his motives, not less.
Nate, good call again.
There's no way his handlers were going to allow McCain to go into the Warren interview totally unscripted. Whether he had some of the questions, as opposed to the topic areas (which he and Obama both had), it was easy to surmise what some of the questions would be.
That would include questions about the Supreme Court, since that's a critical decision point for those concerned about Roe v. Wade, religion & politics, stem cell research, and other issues that were likely to arise.
That said, the way McCain interrupted to ask about when the Court question was coming is a definite "tell." He knew specifically what question was coming, not just that there would be questions about the Court.
Warren's reference to the Secret Service is laughable. King should have called him on it.
To any conservatives who don't think so, if the situation were reversed and Obama had gone second, and it had turned out he was in his motorcade when he was supposed to be in a "cone of silence", can you really honestly say YOU'D shrug it off?
YES!!!! I have shrugged off far worse where Obama is concerned. Why is it that you guys simply can't accept that your boy got whupped? I mean are you THAT completely mesmerized by this man's eloquence that you have completely lost your objectivity? Instead of crying crocodile tears and screaming "not fair" when there's not a single shread of hard evidence of wrongdoing why can't simply accept that the "wrinkled old man" delivered and your man didn't?
Seriously I don't mean to be an asshole here...but stop your whining.
I certainly hope this is the last post on this particular subject. Isn't McCain's obvious response to do it again and go first if people really think he cheated?? I think that was Bill Kristol's advice, and it would seem to be a pretty good response. I think the real reason McCain did better is because he's pretty comfortable in that setting, Obama just came off vacation and was probably afraid of making a huge gaffe since he doesn't have a lot of experience answering the kinds of questions Warren would be asking.
BTW, I hope someone can help me with something regarding the electoral vote projections. The 2004 election was 284-254 in the electoral college. According to the model, Obama's leading in Iowa (9), New Mexico (5) and Colorado (9). That's a net of 23 changing from red to blue. So wouldn't that mean Obama's electoral total should be 254 + 23 = 277, rather than the 285 that we see?? Am I missing something?? Thanks for any help.
I must be getting tired. Iowa only has 7 EVs and the 2004 election was 286-252, so it would be 21 changing from red to blue, meaning Obama's total should be 252 + 21 = 273. Sorry for the error.
I think we have beat this issue to death, Nate. Obama was clearly off his game and McCain surprisingly had a good night and pretty much won going away. Other than the "above my pay grade" gaffe, neither this issue nor McCain's great performance will have any legs and it only hurts Obama to perpetuate it.
I thought the most telling point that Warren made in that interview was that Obama had an unfair advantage. Surely you caught that too, Nate? The part where he admitted he'd given three questions to Obama, but only two to McCain?
Anyway, when you start latching on to unproven conspiracy theories, you're in trouble. Blackberries? I thought McCain was the non-techie candidate?
I'd focus more on Obama's awful performance than McCain's good one, if I were you. If McCain really cheated, then he'll look bad at the debates. But Obama was just bad on his own. An ominous sign for the debates.
Give it a rest Nate.
Even the people on DailyKos have given up on this nonsense. One guy pointed out that, from the transcript, everything he said was right from the stump.
Yeah, probably not very many people saw this and it`s interesting that the next day Obama jumps 3 points in the gallup.
McCain was helped with his base but a lot of independents now know how right wing he is.
Obama should be pounding away at that, any hillary supporter who is pro choice and would vote for McCain is an idiot.
If Obama could get 85-88% of the democratic base he would win by a mile.
My apologies in advance for replying to these posts by scott919 that have nothing to do with Conegate - but dude - did you really use the phrase "your boy got whupped?" I bet you didn't even mean it to sound like what it sounds like. If McCain had performed poorly would that same phrase have sounded odd applied to your "boy?" Or would you have instead admitted that your man got creamed? Dude.
First you post that Obama shouldn't hit McCain on Veteran's benefits because he has some questionable votes - compare their records and the ratings of Veterans groups - McCain comes up short every time. Typical is the rating by The Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America. Obama gets a B+ while McCain gets a D.
Then you post that Obama really is "not so smart" as he appears to be, and then you post that he's a "boy" who "got whupped."
Unsubstantiated bloviating about Obama's intelligence is not "fact-based" mud-slinging any more than race-baiting characterizations of him as a "whupped boy" are. And the fact is that Obama beats McCain on every tally of votes that matter to Veterans.
You agree that campaigns should get dirty as long as it's "true," but apparently the mud you sling is subject to no such constraints.
Nate don't stop the cone gate comments. I love your blog. You are a great analyst and just as Paul Krugman's comments outside of economics are studded with wisdom, your comments outside of data analysis are also enjoyable.
McCain may tell more cross stories and lie his way to white house the way Nixon and Reagan did. This has to be resisted after each lie shows up. http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/8/17/02247/6361
shows circumstantial evidence and we know now that he had the motive and means to carry it out. If this was a criminal trial a jury would convict him for lying in a church :)
millco88 - the model does not assign all of a state's votes to one candidate - it splits them based on win probabilities. That's why there is a decimal place and the numbers are 284.8 and 253.2. McCain has a chance of winning IA (though small) and Obama has a chance of winning Ohio (quite a bit better). When you run simulations based on demographic correlations between states (i.e. If Michigan moves in one direction, OH probably moves in the same direction) you end up with Nate's Electoral Vote Distribution graph at the top of the page on the right (just under the map). The electoral vote projection, win percentages, and popular vote percentages are based on those simulations, which are designed to not only take into account current polling, but also regression toward the mean and demographic factors. Check out the FAQ's
McCain did a good job in front of an audience which votes 85% GOP. Obama did well by showing up in front of that audience.
Why is everyone slamming Nate? This is exactly what Republicans love to do. They're candidate does something downright dishonest and they act by bringing up a very valid issue we are "whiners" or "sore losers". You have no problem giving out lies and falsehoods and when someone calls you on it you have no ability to look and understand that yea, he was not in a "cone of silence", and yea McCain clearly seemed to know the questions in advance, at least to the extent where he was cutting off Mr. Warren.
In short. Nate has every right to deliver what sort of analysis he wants, and I hope you get enough McCain points to get your Golf Towel or McCain Cane or whatever garbage he is peddling.
Nate,
Obama could have cheated too. He could have found out the questions well in advance. His surrogates could have found out the questions before the event. Then told Obama what they were.
I don't believe this but it is just as plausible as McCain getting the questions beforehand.
Remember that there were some questions that were asked of McCain than were not asked of Obama (because Obama talked too long while answering questions) and McCain was just as concise with those answers as with his other answers.
The Reverend said that this issue is impugning (sp) the integrity of the Secret Service, the church's people that ushered McCain into the silent room, McCain's handlers and especially McCain.
Please stop this silliness. I love the statistical analysis but the shilling for Obama must stop.
Nate is rising in the "veepstakes", surely.
Rev. Rick, shilling for McCain. Who'd've thunk it?
Nice try, Ricky, but you and your Saddleback Sham have been outed as a fraud. You lied to the audience when you said beforehand that Poverty, HIV Aids and Climate Change would be among the subjects. Instead you asked the usual wingnut-framed questions on Abortion, Stem Cells and the Supreme Court. It was left to Obama to make reference to those other subjects. You know, the ones that don't play with the rapture right.
Fail.
If anyone here thinks that Rick Warren would do anything underhanded to help a candidate of his liking, has never read his book.
You know...
The tone of the Obama supporters has changed quite a bit since earlier this summer. That the O Pushers have gone from giddy to gleeful to cynical to paranoid is quite telling.
Probably a non-issue as it seems both candidates may have had an idea of the "themes" they would be asked.
And Adam of NY, the types of folks who comment on Internet sites tend to be the most emotionally involved with a candidate, so it's likely that their comments are the least reflective of the entire electorate. My sense is that most Obama supporters remain incredibly upbeat about his prospects.
Adam, no one doubts this is a good time for McCain and his supporters. Can he keep it up though? November's still a long way away.
I don't believe this but it is just as plausible as McCain getting the questions beforehand.
The stupid... it burns...
McCain was (I think we can safely assume) listening to Obama being questioned. Obama couldn't have, because he was on the stage getting asked the questions when they were publicly asked the first time.
In any sane game-theoretic analysis, you always make the assumption that someone has all the publicly available knowledge. By the time McCain arrived at Saddleback, some of the questions were publicly available knowledge. Q. E. D.
The Reverend said that this issue is impugning (sp) the integrity of the Secret Service, the church's people that ushered McCain into the silent room, McCain's handlers and especially McCain.
That's as must be. McCain and his people have shown over and over that he has no integrity to impugn anyway. (No comment on whether Obama does or not). And as pointed out above, this in no wqay impugns the intergrity of the Secret Service, who have one job and one job only, which is protect McCain. I've worked with the SS in the past and I don't think a nuclear attack on the U.S. itself could deviate them from that mission.
NJ_Wingnut said...
"I think we have beat this issue to death, Nate. Obama was clearly off his game and McCain surprisingly had a good night and pretty much won going away. Other than the "above my pay grade" gaffe, neither this issue nor McCain's great performance will have any legs and it only hurts Obama to perpetuate it."
Once again, an ignorant comment. If McCain won going away, how come Obama jumped 3 pts in the Gallup daily tracking poll yesterday? Surely McCain would have some kind of a bounce? Or maybe he came across as a panderiing right-wing screwball on live television and scared a lot of moderates. The media have been spinning this for McCain for the past 2 days. It hasn't worked - Obama took questions in front of a partisan right-wing audience and came away with small victory. He didn't hand the Republicans any red meat to vote against him, didn't alienate his base, and came across as a moderate. That's a fact.
From the Christian Broadcasting Network's David Brody:
"The fact that Barack Obama would show up at an Evangelical Church and take the tough questions is a credit to him. I mean he knew he was the visiting team so to speak yet he handled these questions like he has in the past: with relative ease [...]
Overall the night was a success for Obama. He didn’t get put on the spot too much with the abortion questions. He handled the "Jesus" question about his faith with ease and maybe most important he looked comfortable up there."
It's amusing how the wingnut trolls cite "above my pay grade" as a gaffe, yet forget to mention McCain's utterly insane "Your're rich if you make $5 Million" gaffe. Obama has already mocked McCain's definition of rich:
"Which I guess if you’re making $3 million a year, you're middle class,” said Obama, admitting that maybe McCain was joking. But that's reflected in his policies,” Obama continued, “where for people making more than $2.5 million, he's giving folks a $500,000 tax break. And so this is a fundamental difference in this election."
That comment is gonna come back to haunt McCain in the fall.
Nate, ignore the trolls and keep posting on Rev. Rick's Saddleback Sham, or anything else that pisses them off. Regardless of whether this story has legs or not, your analysis has easily been the bast of all the blogs. In fact, I linked to 538 on at least a half-dozen websites yesterday.
Quinnipiac's national poll has Obama up 47-42 today. I'll take that in November.
"The tone of the Obama supporters has changed quite a bit since earlier this summer. That the O Pushers have gone from giddy to gleeful to cynical to paranoid is quite telling."
And the tone of most of the McCain supporters here has been obnoxious all along.
It's weird that so many people here can't see that the issue is not whether McCain DID cheat, it's whether he broke the rules and COULD HAVE cheated. Those of you who are saying it doesn't matter are basically saying that rules don't matter. I guarantee you that if the roles were reversed, the trolls here would have been hammering on this point for days, since Rush and Hannity and others would be talking about it every day.
Finally, to Scott919 and others, I think you may be looking at the outcome of the Saddleback event with a limited perspective. The reviews that I have read suggest that Obama and McCain each did fine, but had different approaches. McCain made by far the biggest gaffe of the night with the $5 million remark, and a Politico article pointed out yesterday that it could hurt him. Given that this was during the Olympics, viewership was likely light, so few minds were swayed by the event, I'd guess. If some people did change their minds, it's likely that Obama gained their support, not McCain, though McCain almost certainly shored up some support that was weak. To suggest that Obama supporters all think that he got trounced is foolish. You have your perspective, which you are welcome to, but don't pretend to know what everybody else is thinking.
>> To suggest that Obama supporters all think that he got trounced is foolish. You have your perspective, which you are welcome to, but don't pretend to know what everybody else is thinking.
And to suggest that Obama's team doesn't think that he could have done better is at least as foolish. Otherwise they wouldn't try to peddle this "McCain cheated" narrative without proof. Because the only people ready to crucify him without said proof are already partisan Democrats that won't vote McCain - and everyone else sees it as whining by the Obama people and an obvious attempt at damage control. Even Andrea Mitchell, who obviously most be a big McCain supporter (eye roll) thinks so.
The point is this.
McCain is dishonest. He's dishonest in his campaign commercials regarding Obama's positions on issues and taxes, he's dishonest in his forums regarding Obama's energy plan.
If he were running and honorable and honest campaign nobody would be jumping to conclusions.
McDishonesty is at fault on this one.
Conegate is a non-issue chatter story which is a de facto admission that Obama badly lost the debate.
Be careful Obama people about tossing around the honesty word until you have seen or read Obama's response to the question about naming vote or position he took that was a break with his party. His answer - his support of McCain-Feinstein campaign finance reform. Problem he wasn't in the U.S. Senate until 2005, this legislatin was passed in 2002.
The Kewpie Doll
This would never be a story and worth all these posts by Nate unless you all didn't think you got your asses kicked.
You are now very worried that Obama is not going to win the debates hands down and that McCain has taken another game changer away from you.
Get over it! Your guy is a professorial wonk that cannot concisely communicate his ideas to the people b/c he does not know how to relate to folks outside his tight knit, radical, Ivory tower domain.
The people sense this elitism in Obama and reject it. You gnash your teeth over it ‘cause you wish he were something different but he ain't.
Wait till we get started on Black Liberation Theology. Pastor Warren did not have much good to say about that yesterday. That Obama belonged for 20 years to a church that held that philosophy as its central tenet and was brought to Jesus by Rev. Wright who championed it, will really give something for Bojangles Obama to verbally tap dance over. All the nuance in the world will not save him.
It is gonna look like a carnival shooting gallery soon and you all won’t know what hit you till McCain walks away with the kewpie doll!
Yeah, McCain heard the questions and yes, he stole the cross in the dirt story, too. As well, had the roles been reversed and Obama had gone 2nd but was 'on his way' for McCain first 1/2 hour the McNuts would be all over the web posting how Obama has no shame.
I saw bit and pieces of Warren on Larry King and Hannity and Colmes and it strikes me this whole thing was a set-up from the get-go. Warren likes Obama personally but he wants a Republican in office. I mean the questions were tailor made to make a pro-choice candidate squirm and make an anti-abortion candidate shine.
There's no way for McCain to lose here -- he looked very sharp during his interview and since he won the night any complaint from the other side sounds like sour grapes.
But it does go to his character and he's actually slipped somewhat in the polls taken since Saturday night -- the slip in Gallup or the non-movement in Rasmussen may have more to do with the fact that it's August and no-one cares (general public) or it just may mean that McCain's victory will show up in the polls later in the week.
Who knows -- but Saddleback was a blessing in disguise for Obama -- he knows he can't take McCain lightly in the debates and he knows he needs to sharpen his answers.
Nate, please keep posting about this. It drives the trolls nuts.
I do find the whole story very interesting. Not that I think it will change the election. But the contrast between what the pastor claimed and what actually happened is a good old-fashioned morality tale. His attempts to cover for McCain show his true colors. The Secret Service bit is hilarious.
Here's the real story on Saddleback ... your suit got outed.
You're about to nominate a suit that mumbles a lot, speaks in incomplete sentences, has a dislikeable sense of self-importance, and at worst hasn't resolved himself to an ideological core or at best to a core he's willing to own. It started with Trinity and now Obama's at the edge of a free fall. Saddleback was a disaster. You all can go into denial and call McCain and people like me names ... but that doesn't change the fact you nominated the wrong person.
At least W. knows what he's for and isn't affraid to defend it. Obama is way too far Left to win and his attempt at triangulation is a circus.
stop the stutter, You did make me laugh to post that what someone writes about religion in a book is proof of what they will or won't do.
Tricky Ricky just keeps digging that hole he is in deeper and deeper.
Excellent points - why is McCain so off limits? Not just on this issue but so many others - am I the only American who remembers the Keating 5?
The numbers on this election are clear ---- the country wants to elect a Democrat ... the trouble is you gave the Obama. Obama's the guy at the party that's the center of attention, he's got that confident aura, there's a crowd around him ... by midnite he's just finishing another long winded story about himself, using the word I every other sentence ... the crowd around him fades.
I remember, Liberal Christian. This is from I post I did earlier on another thread:
And for those who claim McCain did nothing wrong as a member of the Keating Five, you are misinformed.
Keating asked the five Senators to tell the feds to stop investigating him, and the five Senators, later known as the Keating Five, obliged, meeting with federal investigators twice and pressuring them to stop. In addition, McCain admitted to intentionally filing false income tax returns to defraud the IRS by not claiming thousands of dollars in gifts McCain and his family received from Charles Keating and Keating’s company.
Some republicans may find such unethical behavior just fine and dandy. Business as usual. Most people are not so happy to have Senators so caviler with ethics at the expense of the taxpayer.
Unsubstantiated bloviating about Obama's intelligence is not "fact-based" ...
And once again here we go. "Facts...give me facts". This whole Conegate crap has nothing factual about it, yet it's ok to bloviate on that huh? What you guys are accomplishing is simply demonstrating that when the facts support your candidate then facts are all your care about, but when there are no facts to support what you wish to be true then apparently wild conjecture is perfectly acceptable.
Oh please - of course he cheated - just like he lied! He was asked right off the bat about the "cone of secrecy" - did you hear him mention that he wasn't in the building for half of Obama's hour? no!
Every time you question McCain on his honesty or integrity you get the same line of bs about his prisoner of war days - this was decades ago people. He has been in DC for all of these intervening years and consorts with lobbyists & oil people - of course he lies and cheats!!
Nate in the end you are right here. We will never know. Fact - McCain did not see or hear anything personally.
His staff did and fed it to him.
The really good thing about this is that "conegate" not his performance was the story yesterday so the McCain camp once again turned victory into defeat bu cutting corners and trying to play dirty.
Had they played by the rules and he had been in the green room the whole time and done well which he would have w/ that crowd, yesterday would have been all about how terrific he was, not "conegate" and the VP wait...
The last 2 daily polls show no negative impact, just upticks back to the 60 day avg.....
In a real debate where he has to think he is going to get slammed. Just wait.
To suggest that Obama supporters all think that he got trounced is foolish. You have your perspective, which you are welcome to, but don't pretend to know what everybody else is thinking.
I don't at all. His supporters are demonstrating very clearly what they are thinking and if you read the blog on the initial reaction to Saddleback the majority opinion, even by Obama's supporters, was that he had a bad night.
After multiple conspiracy theory blogs the mood went from simple disappointment to kicking of feet, pounding of fists, and screeching the likes of which I haven't seen since my children were three years old.
On this date in history, August 19, 2004, in the Rasmussen Presidential Tracking Poll John Kerry led President George Bush 49% to 47 %.
For final results, please see Presidential Inauguration January 2005.
NAte, thanks for bringing up the Saddleback Forum. It continues to keep Odumbo in the news as a whiner, complanier and incompetent Presdiential candidate. Try not to be such a HOMER in the future.
PS
What are u going to do when ODUMBO gets his ass kicked during the first debate-oh I know-just what you whiners did during the DEm debates-blame it on the moderator!
Stick to your numbers Nate Silver, you're not helping your candidate by making up conspiracy theories.
I never liked Rick Warren, but that Secret Service answer is silly.
McCain had the opportunity to hear the questions. It could have been via radio or telephone. He had tht opportunity to cheat. The only people who know if he did or not are the candidate and the campaign. Furthermore, whether he did or not doesn't really matter. He would have given the same answers regardless of any foreknowlege of the questions. He gave a stump speech punctuated by RW's questioning - no more, no less.
Keating asked the five Senators to tell the feds to stop investigating him, and the five Senators, later known as the Keating Five, obliged, meeting with federal investigators twice and pressuring them to stop. In addition, McCain admitted to intentionally filing false income tax returns to defraud the IRS by not claiming thousands of dollars in gifts McCain and his family received from Charles Keating and Keating’s company.
Uh...not quite Eve. Keating asked the Senators to get the feds off his back and DeConcini (D-AZ), Riegle (D-MI), and Cranston (D-CA) obliged. Glenn (D-OH) simply set up a meeting between Keating and the House Majority leader, and McCain told Keating to go to hell.
McCain did accept gifts which at the time was not illegal and quite commonplace. Robert Bennett, who was the special investigator, recommended that McCain and Glenn be removed from scrutiny and no charges be levied against them as there was nothing on them. The Senate Ethics Committee (which were all Democrats) charged them anyhow.
Their conclusion was that Glenn and McCain's involvement was minimal and was cleared of all charges stating, "(McCain's) actions were not improper nor attended with gross negligence and did not reach the level of requiring institutional action against him....Senator McCain has violated no law of the United States or specific Rule of the United States Senate."
@Glenn-in-Colorado:
...at worst hasn't resolved himself to an ideological core or at best to a core he's willing to own...
Obama is way too far Left to win
Which is it Glenn? No ideological core, or pinko communist?
re: bojangles comment--
oh my god pete shut the hell up you bigot.
People ... this is a great site. Nate's work is the best. You all are a collection of very bright and thoughtful people on both sides ....
Can we try to knock off the lame name calling? We're McCain supporters/people and Obama supporters/people. I value the opinion of the Obama people here. You do a great job of exposing McCain flaws and weaknesses and Obama strengths ... can we try to leave it at that?
Cheers
Really, even you are stooping down to the "let's refer to something as XXX-gate" level of cable TV anchors? While the analysis is great, you're slowly starting to shift more and more in the "generic partisan political blog" direction.
Nice try Scott - the Wall Street Journal was not as easy on the Big Mc as you would like to be and neither was his home town newspaper - a link to their article along with some particularly good lines are copied below - the National Review link is worth reading too
http://www.azcentral.com/news/specials/mccain/articles/0301mccainbio-chapter7.html
McCain previously had refused DeConcini's request to meet with the Lincoln auditors themselves. In Worth the Fighting For, McCain wrote that he remained "a little troubled" at the prospect, "but since the chairman of the bank board didn't seem to have a problem with the idea, maybe a discussion with the regulators wouldn't be as problematic as I had earlier thought."
On Oct. 8, 1989, The Arizona Republic revealed that McCain's wife and her father had invested $359,100 in a Keating shopping center in April 1986, a year before McCain met with the regulators
The paper also reported that the McCains, sometimes accompanied by their daughter and baby-sitter, had made at least nine trips at Keating's expense, sometimes aboard the American Continental jet. Three of the trips were made during vacations to Keating's opulent Bahamas retreat at Cat Cay
In his 2002 book, McCain confesses to "ridiculously immature behavior" during that particular interview and adds that The Republic reporters' "persistence in questioning me about the matter provoked me to rage."
Among the Keating Five, McCain took the most direct contributions from Keating
http://www.nationalreview.com/contributors/levin040501.shtml
This site is sooo "unbiased". It's just like MSNBC. I'm getting "thrills up my leg" as I read this.
Booze said...
@Glenn-in-Colorado:
...at worst hasn't resolved himself to an ideological core or at best to a core he's willing to own...
Obama is way too far Left to win
Which is it Glenn? No ideological core, or pinko communist?
I never refered to Senator Obama as either a pinko or a communist. As to which is it - a far left core ideology believed but denied or a still forming ideology - I don't know. Do you? I welcome your take on Obama. I think he's a Leftist who doesn't feel he can own this ideology and win. But I'm still not certain.
Pinko is a prejorative term implying a socialist who is often disloyal to the USA and/or a fellow traveler to the communists. I do not believe Senator Obama is a pinko. He may be properly labled a democratic socialist, I don't know where exactly his core ideology is. Again I welcome your clarification.
This site is official pathetic. Nate your analysis is straight off of the DailyKos. The only thing this site is good for is the stats showing McCain surgining in the polls.
Watch this Nate, maybe you'll shut up then: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3xGpD6aOKeA
WHO
CARES
ABOUT
CONEGATE
ITS A NON ISSUE
STOP POSTING ABOUT IT
ITS MEANINGLESS
ITS WORTHLESS
IT WILL NOT AFFECT THE ELECTION
STOP TALKING ABOUT IT! IT ONLY SEEMS THAT BITTER OBAMA SUPPORTERS ARE THE ONES WHO CARE!
If I were Obama, this is where I'd attack McCain.
I'd make "Saint McCain" commercials, quoting Hannity and various pundits saying things like "It's not the same that he cheated on his wife, he was a war hero! Sure he illegally tried to pressure the Keating investigators, but he was a war hero! Sure he cheated on his taxes, but he was a war hero! Yes, he tried to get you into a debate on July 1st where the audience was rigged, but he was a war hero! Sure, he regularly violates the law he wrote on campaign finance reform, but he's a war hero! How dare he be attacked for cheating in Saddleback! He's a War Hero!"
Make it so that every time somebody hears McCain and War Hero in the same sentence, they think of all the scummy things he's done and how he tries to hide behind what happened to him 40 years ago to protect himself. Just nail him on his "strength", and don't let up.
Scott919 is a troll. Do not feed him. His primary intent is obfuscation.
Having said that, I agree this discussion is better suited for a more partisan website, like DailyKos.
As long as the gratuitous daily idiotic thread is posted about "cone"-gate, I'll post my same response until it goes away.
Let it go. It's stupid. It's whiny. It's all the above. Get a life if this riles you up.
I like Mason's response, even though he is anti-McCain. McCain may have had the opportunity to cheat, but he said the same things he would have said regardless. Stump speech talking points. No more, no less.
I'm sure if this was a forum hosted by Gavin Newsom on the town square of San Francisco, Obama would look like a natural charm while McCain would stutter and stammer and be way out of his element and uncomfortable. And it wouldn't be affected by any level of "cheating" beforehand.
Of course the Christians are going to call this a "non-issue." Whenever a Christian does the usual thing -- lying, cheating, stealing -- it's a "non-issue."
I was thinking about this yesterday, and asking myself, "What's the first thing that comes to mind when you hear the word, "Christian," and the answer was "liar."
pluckon,
And the first thing I think when I read someone make a generalized attack on all Christians by calling them all liars is "unrepentant liar."
I can't speak for all "Christians" but the vast majority (not all, but most) recognize their faults and repent of them and try to be better people. Better than wallowing in your own filth and being proud of it.
McCain's resopnse is right out of the Rove/Bush/Chney/Nixon playbook:
"How dare you imply that I might have cheated!"
"Honorable'TM'"? A little snarky for an objective website. Not that you have to be objective, just be open about it.
Pluckon - bigotry against Christians is still bigotry. Remember in this country we have freedom OF religion not freedom FROM religion.
"Whether he had some of the questions, as opposed to the topic areas (which he and Obama both had), it was easy to surmise what some of the questions would be."
Exactly. The only surprising questions were greatest moral failing and which Supreme Court Justices would you not have appointed. And McCain certainly didn't look prepared for either. On the Court, Ginsburg snowballed into each and every non-conservative Justice (and he struggled to remember Stevens's name), and on moral failings, though he certainly aced his own, he seemed to fish around a little for what he thought America's moral failings might be. Other than that, you know he's going to ask about abortion, faith, education, foreign policy, and all the rest. To the people who think he somehow cheated, I'd ask, which question did he (a) seem to know was coming that (b) he wouldn't have anticipated without listening in on Obama's interview?
I don't retract a single word of what I wrote. The first thing I think of when I hear the word "Christian" is "liar." There is nothing at all Christ-like in the American evangelical establishment. I think Obama was a fool to have ever appeared at the so-called "church" operated by Rick Warren. Any dummy could have told him he'd be set up.
More broadly, as I look at Obama's general election campaign I see the seeds of a disaster in the making. He ran on "Change" during the primaries, and now he's running around trying to assure the public that there won't be any change. I think this is a terrible strategy.
The public is way out ahead of the leaders right now. The economy is collapsing, but you'd never know it to listen to Obama. He shows every sign of being captured by the pussies of the DLC, the "Afraid-of-Our-Own-Shadow" Democrats.
If Obama doesn't come out swinging pretty soon, and swinging hard, he's going to lose. Which is exactly what the "Christians" want to see, and is exactly what a significant part of the Democratic Party seems to want, too.
MR-
As you can no doubt tell, I'm damning him with faint praise.
A more nimble mind, given a little warning, would have come up with something a bit better than the standard stump speech.
Mason,
Oh, I agree. I think the better line of "attack" should be nothing about possible "cheating" or improprieties but on the things he said.
Didn't Rick Warren say that he wasn't going to "allow" stump speeches. And McCain stayed right with the standard playbook. They should hammer him on that and not really providing too much insight in what was supposed to be a more revealing forum for both speakers.
But either way, the issue of him being in a "cone of silence" or not is moot.
Yeah, MR.
That was a pretty funny comment from Warren, too. What was he going to do if someone launched into a stump speech? Cut off their mike?
The left needs to stop being afraid of offending people. The right certainly isn't. They're willing to make an argument that makes people mad. And they've held onto power for about 30 years because of it. The reason they lost power in 2006, and faced with losing more in 2008 isn't because they offend people. It's because their policy, when implemented, is just awful.
The truth on this is the correct spin. Rick Warren lied about putting McCain in a cone of silence to help make a pro-McCain infomercial. People seem to be seeing through the charade here: so far, if there's been any benefit to McCain because of this swindle, it doesn't seem to have shown up in the polls.
How do we know it was a swindle? Because obviously, the whole integrity of this event depended on McCain not even *being able* to see Obama's portion of the interview. That's WHY Warren lied twice about McCain being in a cone of silence. Everyone would have seen through this event as just a pro-McCain infomercial if they knew in advance that McCain could see Obama's portion of the interview.
Scott919
You are incorrect. McCain met with the feds twice regarding Keating.
Liberal Christian,
I like your post, but I must disagree with one. Or maybe I don't understand it. We most certainly do have freedom from religion in this country. We were set up to have freedom from religion.
One reason to come back to it is that McCain has already admitted to cheating (on the wife who stood by him while he was a POW) and has broadcast an outright lie about Obama (concerning whether he wanted media with him when visiting wounded soldiers).
One way to look into it is to compare McCain's answers in the first half to those in the second half. Wasn't the question about what defines "rich" in the second half hour? McCain was totally unprepared for it and gave an answer (5 million dollars per year of income) that shows he is totally out of touch with middle America. I can't believe the Democratic party has not totally hammered McCain for arguing that a MULTI-MILLIONAIRE, a person earning 3 million dollars a year, is "middle class". Ask someone in the Ohio Valley if any of their middle class neighbors make a million a year!
BTW, one thing that has surprised me is that none of the negative Obama ads have used the SNEERING image of McCain, like when reminding us that he voted against the programs he says he supports, since it always reminds me of the elitist dickhead in high school that everyone had to pretend to like because his daddy was an Admiral. I'd definitely have him sneering when he promises a "middle class tax cut" to people making over a million a year.
I like this Conegate thread and hope you don't stop. As I watched the forum I immediately thought McCain had the questions beforehand. Sadly, McCain supporters are the type who think winning by cheating shows strength of character.
Eve, what we have in the Constitution is freedom of religion meaning that you and I and all other Americans can practice their own faith without persecution from the government. You are FREE to worship as you see fit and express your religous ideas. The prohibition against a state sponsored Church is designed to protect those freedoms - ex: if we had a govt sponsored Baptist faith it would infringe on the rights of non-Baptists to worship as they see fit. Unfortunately Americans (and liberals have been the driving in this I have to admit) have interpreted this to mean that we need to pretend religion doesn't exist and what we have today is almost a state sponsored Atheist church. This is one of the reasons that the Democrats lost to GWB twice - Obama's openess about his faith should help. While he does not fall in line with the evangelical voting block, his refusal to stuff faith into a dark closet will help many religous voters see him in a different light than Gore or Kerry.
THIS IS AN ISSUE BECAUSE MCCAIN PERFORMED SO WELL. IF HE HAD MUMBLED AND STUMBLED WITH HIS ANSWERS NO ONE WOULD BE TALKING ABOUT THE POSSIBILITY OF HIM HEARING THE ? IN ADVANCE>
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