According to fresh data from Rasmussen Reports, Sarah Palin's selection is a mixed bag. Voters have a favorable impression of her by a 53/26 margin; however, by a 29/44 margin, they do not believe that she is ready to be President. Needless to say, the PR battle over the next couple of weeks will involve the McCain campaign playing up her biography, and the Obama campaign playing down her readiness.
At this stage, it is not clear how impactful her selection will be: 35 percent of voters say they're more likely to vote for McCain with Palin on the ticket, and 33 percent say they're less likely. Indeed, among voters already committed to one or the other candidate, her choice would seem to do little bit entrench partisan feelings: just 6 percent of McCain voters say they're less likely to vote for McCain with Palin on the ticket, while just 9 percent of Obama voters say they're more so. (To see how Joe Biden's numbers compared -- see here. As might be expected, Biden scored better on readiness and worse on personal favorables, with the other numbers being about the same).
What's interesting, however, is that while there is a gender gap in these numbers, it's not the one many observers were anticipating. Rather, along a variety of metrics, men like the Palin choice better than women:
These numbers pretty much speak for themselves, but men have a favorable imperssion of Palin by a 35-point margin, whereas women have a favorable impression of her by an 18-point margin. Conversely, by a 23-point margin, women do not think Palin is ready to be President, whereas Palin lost this question among men by a considerably smaller 6-point magrin.
Why does this gap exist? Don't know, but it may simply be a matter of ideology. Men are generally a bit more conservative than women, and opinions of Palin are very strongly determined by ideology. Conservatives have a favorable impression of her by a 79-8 margin, but this falls to 43-35 among moderates and 26-46 among liberals. Likewise, by a 48-22 margin, conservatives think she's ready to be President, but she loses this question 23-54 among moderates and 9-67 among liberals.
8.30.2008
Women View Palin More Skeptically than Men
@ 11:52 AM
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387 comments
If women are less impressed with the choice of Palin than men, that surely means McCain's gamble hasn't paid off.
Could it be because they think Palin is attractive (serious question)?
When the party's over....
It's over, John. A desperate and irresponsible pick as VP. Republicans have been trying for forty years (and succeeding largely) to paint Democrats as being out of the mainstream.
How much farther out of the mainstream is a VP who thinks creationism should be taught in schools; who thinks that birth control shouldn't even be used within marriage; who is completely against gay rights; who is against abortion in all, even the most extreme, circumstances; and we haven't even talked about any of the issues that we need to tackle as a country to compete globally during the next century.
McCain had the opportunity to be courageous in two ways -- one, in redefining his party; two, in redefining his country. But now, he will go down as the dinosaur who tried to get the magic to work one more time. And it won't.
Republicans will point to H.W. Bush. But H.W. had one thing lurking that McCain doesn't -- Ronald Reagan.
There were many, more-qualified, more courageous picks, both men and women. But right now, Obama is showing the one characteristic that the United States needs right now -- courage in leadership.
Stupid, stupid, John. Stupid.
"Could it be because they think Palin is attractive (serious question)?"
Yes, and those men could put McCain over the top.
Finally, a blogger actually comments about what McCain was looking at during the Dayton rally. Fiddling with his wedding ring was a nice touch, too. I can't believe Jon Stewart didn't comment on this last night, as it was pretty obvious.
http://www.jedreport.com/2008/08/getting-to-know-you.html#disqus_thread
Virginia --
You might be right except:
(1) women have a higher propensity to vote than men; and,
(2) I don't believe that a sexy candidate is going to get men to vote.
Honestly, I've been thinking about it all night. It is the most perplexing decision I've ever seen. It redefines pandering.
My wife agrees. Women will resent the beauty queen more than men.
She is Huckabee with different equipment and a lighter resume.
Sad day.
As a woman, I also think there is the sense that he picked her solely because she is a woman and that is insulting. We want equality. We don't want tokenism. McCain shows that he doesn't really think much of women if he thinks we can so easily be duped. And so women react negatively. It isn't really that surprising. I agree if he had picked a woman who was justifiable in any other way (like mentioned here Snowe), this may not have been the reaction.
My local paper has already defined her as an energy expert. The defining has begun.
Rove just said she was mayor of the second largest city in Alaska.
By next week we'll learn she killed a Russian bear with her bare hands.
Like putting Obama at the top of the ticket wasn't shameless pandering?
As a man, it's not hard to see why men's instant reaction to her would be "favorable." But how much had these people who were polled actually heard about her at this point?
I think when her "experience" comes to light, then Joe Six-Pack is going to have a hard time picturing Miss Alaska as someone who is a heartbeat away from the presidency.
I think this evidences a certain amount of tone-deafness on the part of McCain's monolithically male consulting team.
Why are women more likely to feel proud than patronized at a beauty queen being thrust onto the national stage, vowing to finish the job that Hillary started? Only if they enjoy being told to think in the most simplistic manner imaginable. I can imagine this scene as it would play out in any number of high school sit coms...
I bet the vast approval among males has less to do with attractiveness (this aspect has totally passed me over - maybe there's too much 'mom' and 'fargo' there for my taste) than an squeamish obligation to voice approval for the "historic" pick
I'd love to know how many of those people with a favorable opinion of her could have picked her out of a lineup 48 hours ago.
Dustin -
Maybe it's that the Dems have pointed out that she was a runner-up in the 18984 Miss Alaska competition, but she does give off kind of a vibe that if she were to take off her glasses and shake out that up-swept hairstyle, men of a certain age would say "Why Ms Palin! You're... beautiful!"
well, Obama was "put" at the top of the ticket by voters, not by the decision of one person.
An important question, though, is how many of those 35% are much more likely to vote for McCain because of this pick, as opposed to those who just like Palin and are a little more likely to support McCain, and vice versa. Vice presidents don't usually change many voters, but surely there are some that will vote for McCain simply because he chose a woman and there are some that will feel patronized or fear her lack of experience and will not vote for the ticket as a result.
attractiveness - It's a good question. I'd like to think men aren't favorable solely because of her attractiveness! But I don't believe women think less because she's attractive. I think it's because of her inexperience in national affairs. Were John McCain 10 or 20 years younger it would be much less of an issue. Were McCain to die in the next year ... she may be plucky but ...
It is also that she is strongly anti-abortion - against the national trend, approves creationalism being taught in the schools, doesn't feel global warming is man-made etc. Women are the practical sex, and see the practical shortcomings.
So maybe we need some cross-crosstabs, like how she does among independent women.
Maybe Palin was more directed at bringing in hard right wingers and religious fundamentalists than centrist / liberal women, and at shoring up McCain's decaying "maverick" image with Palin's record of having defied an Alaska Republican establishment.
More than that, I think this is an indication of how, in fact, McCain would govern, and I completely do not accept that this is merely a "political" choice and that once in office suddenly the Fourthbranch powers Cheney wielded will evaporate.
These aren't a mixed bag, Nate - they're actually pretty good numbers for McCain. 53/26 favorability numbers are pretty impressive.
And so far, it looks like she'll bring slightly more voters in than she'll draw away. That ratio will only increase after she speaks at the convention next week.
The only thing that could bring these numbers down seriously would be Troopergate. But so far (based on only one poll), this looks lke a *slight* win for McCain.
"Like putting Obama at the top of the ticket wasn't shameless pandering?"
You're suggesting millions of primary and caucus voters got together in a big conspiracy in order to vote for Obama as a way to pander to African-Americans?
@ Yeggo
Thank you for making that point for me. It was so obvious that I would think even a Virginia Conservative knew it but hoped we wouldn't come back with it :)
I hope Biden sharpens his daggers and plunges at Palin with full force. Hey, honey, you are in line for the toughest job in the world. If you can't take the heat, stay out of the kitchen.
Like putting Obama at the top of the ticket wasn't shameless pandering?
Virginia Conservative,
Obama **earned** his position at the top of the ticket by beating by a whisker, a very strong candidate, Hillary Clinton, and the 18 million votes she received.
Palin, on the other hand, was chosen by one man, McCain, based on his calculation of what it would take to win.
If you can't see the difference, it doesn't matter; it merely means that the conservative movement is filled with irrelevant, dumb people. My purpose of posting is to see if that is true.
Best,
-Arun
Hey, so what if she represents the complete antithesis of everything I believe in? As Samantha Bee so succinctly put it; Palin is Hilary's gynecological twin. What's not to like?
And who could seriously suggest that McCain, the man who offered his wife up for the Miss Buffalo Chip contest, and who has voted against equal rights for women even while living off his wife's millions, would judge women superficially?
Doddering Old Fool/Bimbette '08
On the other hand, she's a perfect pick:
1. Appeals to the evangelical Christian base: Pro-life, creationist, anti-gay marriage.
2. Appeals to big oil (Of course, in Alaska even the progressive Dems are pro-drilling in ANWR. )
3. Lifetime member of NRA, and she cooks what she kills.
4. Despite the above, as a woman she contributes to McCain's recently-re-tooled "maverick" reputation.
VCU:
We already knew you were a jackass, but your comment was disgustingly racist. Obama wasn't "Put" at the top of the ticker; he went out and earned it, wrenching it from the candiate who started off with support from the party establishment. Palin had it handed to her on a platter.
Picking a candidate with less than two years of experience in state and national politics isn't a blatant case of tokenism?
I have a hard time imagining that these numbers aren't going to worsen for her as time goes on and people learn *who the heck she is*.
Also, I'd like to point out, if women speak out about their offense at Palin being picked mainly because she is female, it wouldn't be hard to get men upset that an unqualified 'pretty face' was chosen over people with experience and ability.
Why does this gap exist? Don't know, but it may simply be a matter of ideology.
Well, pro-life positions generally draw in more men than women. The vast majority of non-Republican women are not evangelical, hard-line pro-life, anti-birth control, or creationist. They are also not strong Bush supporters, as Palin is.
And a "favourable impression" of Palin does not necessarily mean that someone will vote for the Republican ticket.
McCain picked someone who appeals to his base almost exclusively. And that base is a lot smaller than it was in 2004. It will just get worse as Palin mis-speaks.
We will now have a ticket that rejects any criticism as either "picking on a war hero" or "picking on a woman". The whiner ticket. And if any of the crises the nation will face in the next four years involve attending children's hockey games, we are so ready.
Of course, by pointing out these facts, the conservatrolls will say that I am terrified of this pick.
I'm saddened that the GOP has been reduced to this state.
The GOP fumbled on this play. McCain only met her once 6 months ago.. she recently asked a reporter what the VP does day to day.. she believes global warming is a myth and that creationism should be taught in school.. she is currently under investigation for abusing her power to settle a family score.. the list goes on and on.. Might as well just vote robot! http://www.VoteRobot.org
I think people should pay attention to the Troopergate investigation in Alaska. This one has legs, and I think it'll hurt Palin and McCain.
Honestly, and this is going to sound dumb but it's true, but if you've ever spent any time hanging around a television discussion forum, it becomes clear that women hold other women to a much higher standard -- and judge them much more harshly -- than they do men; and they are much less forgiving of other women than men are. There are other places you'll notice this (high school, for one), but for a dork who hangs out on the Internet a lot, that's where I found this phenomenon.
I think this phenomenon was actually visible in Hillary Clinton's run, also. She had a lot of women on her side -- but the vitriol one heard (at least that I heard) from women who didn't like her frequently far out-distanced the casual dismission or contempt that men offered her.
Just putting a woman on the ticket wasn't going to do it. You've got to put the right woman on the ticket. It won't be clear if McCain did that for some time yet, but I'm beginning to think that he didn't.
I'm wondering if this isn't the whole beauty pageant thing.
Wow, what a lot of tripe up here today from the GOP posters.
Virginia, that was pathetic-- Obama as "shameless pandering"? Obama's race is a part of his package, sure. But this guy is the most talented political orator since Reagan, already a hit on the world stage (at a time when we badly need to fix the "America" brand thanks to your beloved current President), has a high-caliber academic intellect, ran a hell of a clever campaign that drove the invincible Clinton Machine into the ground (even Dan Quayle admitted to being impressed). If you guys want to criticize Obama's policies, or claim that his ideas are not that new, or even say you'd like to see a longer resume from him on the national stage, fine. But trying to claim that Obama is some sort of token affirmative action lightweight is too ridiculous even to be offensive. Have you ever *heard* an Obama speech?
As for your buddy dwbh... "dwbh said...
These aren't a mixed bag, Nate - they're actually pretty good numbers for McCain. 53/26 favorability numbers are pretty impressive."
dwbh... *ahem*... both sexes find her UNQUALIFIED TO BE PRESIDENT! "Favorable" means she's an interesting, appealing, likable person with a family that's fun to look at. Even I would vote "favorable" to that poll question, but I can assure you, I spent all last night shaking my head over this pick, and woke up this morning wondering if I was remembering yesterday correctly. McCain just committed political suicide. Palin will be the nicest person no one could imagine in the White House.
The good thing for Palin is that the "ready to be president" question is at its lowest ebb on day one, and will naturally improve over time if she performs well under the bright lights.
Heck, Obama has been able to parlay two years on the campaign trail into supposedly being ready, even with zero executive experience and no meaningful legislative record.
"Could it be because they think Palin is attractive (serious question)?"
Yes, and those men could put McCain over the top."
Thanks for admitting that this pick was pure sexism -- not that it wasn't obvious already.
"Like putting Obama at the top of the ticket wasn't shameless pandering?"
VOTERS put Obama at the top of the ticket, you fucking idiot! How is that "pandering"?
Man.
"The only thing that could bring these numbers down seriously would be Troopergate. But so far (based on only one poll), this looks lke a *slight* win for McCain."
dbwh,
I think you are way off the mark with your first sentence, here: any gaffe or display of ignorance could be detrimental for Palin. She has very little margin for error because she is so little known and only has a couple of months to demonstrate that she could step in (if needed) and be the leader of the free world.
Your second sentence here is probably an accurate statement of the current situation. The pick will almost certainly not fundamentally change the race, but it provides a slight advantage for McCain in the short-term. The polls will almost certainly change in some way once Palin becomes better known. There is a very serious risk of this becoming a long-range negative. This choice was sort of the anti-Romney, which wouldn't have gotten much press, but would have helped McCain on economic issues and would have reassured voters concerned about McCain's age.
The Palin choice effectively is an insult to women.
It says: look nice, wear dark colors, be friendly and know your position, then we will tolerate you to share some power.
Many women seem to get it.
If nominating Obama is pandering to the little minority of fully tenured professors and presidents of peer-reviewed science journals, than I'm all for pandering.
science+education for president 08/12
Rhys, I know Democrat hacks hate attractive women but try to contain your hatred.
"Rhys, I know Democrat hacks hate attractive women but try to contain your hatred."
Sorry, I didn't realize you were an attractive woman.
Maybe John McCain will pick you for his cabinet if he wins. You're probably about as qualified as Palin is. ;)
Sarah Palin is not ready to lead because she does not know what the Vice President does as late as a month ago. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J9pnzQ96kWA
VirginiaCon - I realize you are a troll but I still must respond to this ridiculous statement: "Like putting Obama at the top of the ticket wasn't shameless pandering?"
Obama wasn't "put" at the top of the ticket. He was ELECTED to the top of the ticket. Comparing Obama to Palin is ridiculous. Palin wouldn't have got any support if she were a Presidential candidate in the primaries, in fact she would have been laughed off the stage. Can you imagine what McCain would have said about her experience in a primary debate?
Since we're supposed to be analyzing numbers here, not just cheerleading: look at the number of undecideds here. 25% of men and 28% of women don't know whether or not Palin is ready to be President. McCain's campaign will have to work extremely hard to get those people to answer "yes," because by default many of them will conclude that she isn't.
"Can you imagine what McCain would have said about her experience in a primary debate?"
He doesn't have to. He's a Republican, able to hold an infinite number of conflicting positions simultaneously.
Palin is the worst VP pick in US history. Whoever tried to compare her to Barack Obama who earned his spot on the ticket really proves a lack of intellect.
Her favorables are good but ultimately meaningless. More people actually view Michelle Obama (who has be villified for 8 months) favorably.
People vote for the person at the top of the ticket and this pick shows something very troubling about Mccains character. You meet a woman once and declare she shares all of your ideals. Huh?? This really comes off as a bad joke.
At some point, the men who respond to Palin because she's attractive will start to realize that she would actually be a heartbeat away from being the Commander in Chief of the military and a severe case of buyer's remorse will set in.
This is not a person qualified to run the government. And please, before anyone acusses me of anything, keep in mind that one month ago Gov. Palin gave an interview wherein she declared that someone would have to explain to her what the job of vice president is before she could say that she would be interested in it.
Let that sink in: The governor of a state does not know what the vice president's job entails. Worse yet, that governor expects to have someone else explain it to her.
Saying that Palin is qualified because she was a small town mayor and is now the still new governor of one of the least populated states is like saying that someone who got their start as a Dairy Queen manager and went from their to managing the local super market is now ready to be the CEO of Wal Mart.
It is amazing how Republicans still think that experience is not essential as long as the packaging looks marketable.
"And so far, it looks like she'll bring slightly more voters in than she'll draw away."
Well, I'm sure that that's the best news McCain has heard all day. Talk about damning with faint praise.
You guys are taking that quote out of context. What she meant was she wanted to know what MCCAIN would ask her to do, not what the Constitutional requirements of the office were.
What the VP does is different in evey administration. Ex., Quayle had far less authority than Gore, who had far less authority than Cheney.
"Like putting Obama at the top of the ticket wasn't shameless pandering?"
Last I checked, he campaigned and won a presidential primary.
For the boneheads who want to compare experience:
Harvard law degree, Editor of Harvard Law Review, Professor of Constitutional Law, 20 years advocating on behalf of the voiceless, State lawmaker, Member of US Senate. Plus, the guy is flat out brilliant and an excellent motivator. He's qualified to lead by virtue of his superior intellect, perceptiveness, leadership qualities, not to mention he's humane. His campaign machine is second to none and is perhaps the best organized effort in history. That’s a testament to his management skills.
What qualifies Sarah Palin is 1st her gender. Second, her far right evangelical beliefs. Whatever follows that doesn't matter, including her degree from University of Idaho. Figurehead mayor with no power over 9,000 citizens. The only candidate running for governor not under suspicion of rabid corruption. Leaves her 4 day old Downs baby to the care of others, doesn't nurse the child which has been shown to significantly assist Downs kids with development. Typical Republican. They care about humans right up until they're born.
This is a joke. John McCain and the Republicans are desperate. They didn’t even bother to respond to Obama’s raging success in Denver. They pulled a stunt instead.
The numbers will fall as people get to know her positions. The more that has been revealed over the last 24 hrs just confrims she is a far right idealogue. That's not going to appeal to many independents or democrats.
The fact that her numbers are less favorbale among women is expected. Women are much more critical of other women in general. Women are not more likley to vote for a women just b/c of gender, if they don't share their views. If you look at when Ferraro was on the ticket in 1984, Dems won women by less than they have in other years. Ferraro didn't help with women. Some thought Ferraro wasn't qualified and she had a scandal with her husband's finances too.
Women are extremely critical of what they may seem as "token positions". They know if a women gets a position that they may not be ready for and does a bad job; the chances of getting another women in that high position is diminished in the near future. I see the nature of highly successful and very critical women of other women on a daily basis.
Do you guys really think freshman Irish Catholic Senator from Illinois Brian O'bama would have won the Democrat Primary?
To whomever stated that Palin is being branded as an energy expert, I sure hope that continues, because:
1. She's not.
2. A couple weeks ago she publicly stated her approval of Obama's energy plan. The statement has since been wiped from the AK Governor's site, but nothing disappears on the internet! It's cached on google. See for yourself
VC,
Keep spinning that one, she said it.
"Why does this gap exist?"
At least partially because Obama wins women and McCain wins men. You need a finer-grained crosstab to see whether whether men voting for McCain are swayed vs. men voting for Obama and ditto for women to sort this out.
The gap's too big to be solely explained by that, I think, but that's undoubtedly part of it. It's definitely not outside the margin of error at any rate, and McCain has some campaigning to do if he actually thinks he has a chance to leach Clinton supporters by choosing Palin.
Likewise, by a 48-22 margin, conservatives think she's ready to be President,
This just proves everything we've known about conservatives for years now. Nothing matters except the fact that she's part of the tribe.
And 29-44 as to whether or not she's ready to be president is pretty terrible. What's more, I think those numbers are her high-water mark. She's basking in the glow of favorable media attention right now, but once that wears off.... Once people start seeing that clip of her on July 31st asking someone to explain to her what the Vice-President does, it's only downhill from here.
"Well, pro-life positions generally draw in more men than women."
That is untrue. Women are slightly more likely to consider themselves pro-life than men (from the 2004 federal election survey).
"The Palin choice effectively is an insult to women.
It says: look nice, wear dark colors, be friendly and know your position, then we will tolerate you to share some power."
That is precisely the reaction McCain is hoping for from the Democrats - plus the experience charge. Why? Because it lowballs expectations and soon creeps into sexist territory. McCain has set a trap for the Dems to attack Palin's credentials. The obvious response:
"So it is okay to be a president as a man with no experience or legislative accomplishments, but not okay for a woman to be VP with the only executive experience in the race" [point to whatever she has done in the past two years]
VC..who knows? According to history, the fact is an inexperienced white catholic senator has more of a chance at being elected president than a half-black guy named Barack Obama.
Do you think a failed business man and weak governor from texas would have been elected president if his last name wasn't Bush?
I hope the Dems don't bother attacking her resume. The media and the blogs will take care of that. Even honest conservatives are coming around to admitting that she is a terrible pick. "Country first", huh, McCain?
VC,
JFK was a freshmen(1st term) Irish Catholic senator from Mass when he was elected in 1960. OOPS!
"Do you guys really think freshman Irish Catholic Senator from Illinois Brian O'bama would have won the Democrat Primary?"
Maybe not, but that still isn't the same as a "pander." Do you know what that word means?
I feel like a couple weeks ago you were kind of a smart guy, but either I was wrong or else this election is eating your brain. I can't wait to see your comments in late October.
Must be destroyed.... must be destroyed.... must be destroyed....
"You guys are taking that quote out of context. What she meant was she wanted to know what MCCAIN would ask her to do, not what the Constitutional requirements of the office were."
It was not taken out of context at all. She did not say she didn't know what McCain wanted, she said she didn't know what the job entailed.
The guy interviewing her even had to say "let me tell you, governor, it's a pretty big job".
To which she replied, "well, this is a pretty cool job here too".
She should have kept it.
At last, some data! I was getting sick of all the rampant speculation going on about how this will play.
That said, some (reasoned, in part) speculation: Unless she is an Obama-like political superstar who really wows them at the convention, I don't see how her numbers can go anywhere but down.
More importantly, what's McCain gonna say against Obama now that will be effective? Notwithstanding the hacks who have the amazing ability to claim with a straight face that Palin is more experienced than Obama, McCain has effectively taken the "experience" argument off the table. In the very least, he has severely weakened its impact.
What does that leave him with? The experience argument gave him some cover for making claims about Obama being exotic or out of touch that didn't seem overtly racist. He might still try to argue that Obama is out of the "mainstream", but heck, Palin is probably more so if she's as big an ideologue as she seems to be (plus, she's coming from the currently more discredited ideology).
If this election is about McCain and his judgment and temperament, rather than about Obama and his "celebrity" and relative inexperience, then McCain is in serious trouble. Maybe grabbing the spotlight from Obama so shockingly was not the best idea in the world...
"Must be destroyed.... must be destroyed.... must be destroyed...."
She is completely unqualified, doesn't even know what the job entails, and was chosen only for her sex.
She doesn't have to be destroyed. There's nothing there TO destroy.
VC said:
"What the VP does is different in evey administration. Ex., Quayle had far less authority than Gore, who had far less authority than Cheney."
I agree, Dick Cheney had very little authority in this administration. Actually, he wasn't even part of this administration, he belonged to the mysterious '4th' branch of government, which holds no accountability whatsoever for the actions of the ACTUAL administration.
As a matter of fact, I don't even know who you're talking about. Who is Cheney? Never heard of him...
"Do you guys really think freshman Irish Catholic Senator from Illinois Brian O'bama would have won the Democrat Primary?"
If he was as amazing a speaker as Obama and running on the same platform of change, without a doubt
I can understand the logic of Palin's "ready" numbers increasing as time passes, but I disagree. It's not going to happen. The thing about Palin is that there's not much that's happened in her career, and the stuff that has happened seems to be well-documented. Already, we have learned (@TNR) that she really FAVORED the Bridge to Nowhere and only gave up on it when it became clear Alaska couldn't soak the rest of the country for the money. And we will learn more about Troopergate and hear how divisive of a character she is in Alaskan politics. And we'll have the most unprepared candidate in history get to answer questions from the press and debate Biden.... chances are greater for her to fumble the ball than shoot a 3 pointer. ANd that would hurt McCain. But if she does well, I don't see how that HELPS McCain. If voters are reassured about her, then their attention goes to McCain, but the GOP is going to have to waste LOTS of time making Palin palatable and they CAN'T spend that time trying to do the same for Palin.
[Obama's] campaign machine is second to none and is perhaps the best organized effort in history. That’s a testament to his management skills.
I mean, you could say the same of Bush. In fact, many people did back in 2000 - our first President to graduate from business school, so good at delegating, ran a great campaign, etc etc.
"This just proves everything we've known about conservatives for years now. Nothing matters except the fact that she's part of the tribe."
And, a big percentage of them are just really, really stupid.
People are starting to have questions about thisgreat unknown....I have one.
What does Gov. Palin love about Pat Buchannan?
I'm surprised that no one has talked about the VP picks as examples of who these candidates will appoint to serve in their administrations... Biden shows that Obama will surround himself with qualified experts. Palin suggests that McCain will surround himself with... unqualified ideologues. Sound familiar? Picking Palin is kind of like picking Monica Goodling.
But seriously though, if McCain honestly thinks that Sarah Palin is the most qualified American to be one heartbeat away from the presidency, then what will his cabinet look like? Will a young graduate of Regent University be chosen for Secretary of Defense? Secretary of State? Attorney General?
Once the excitement fades, once Palin's ideology becomes widely known, once people learn that her experience cannot even be compared to Obama's... then more and more of us will start to wonder what the Palin pick says about the kind of people who will serve in a McCain administration... and more and more of us will begin to laugh at the absolute lunacy of his choice.
"Do you guys really think freshman Irish Catholic Senator from Illinois Brian O'bama would have won the Democrat Primary?"
If he was as amazing a speaker as Obama and running on the same platform of change, without a doubt
Well, what if his middle name was Hannity?
Wait until more women find out she is opposed to birth control pills and condoms even for married couples.
She is like McCain. Self-absorbed loser.
Brian O'bama would not have gotten the black vote from Hillary, and he would have come in second place were he a white Irish Catholic.
Perhaps Palin's support of Buchanan will help Obama win Florida.
Palin -- the gift that keeps on giving.
Brian Obama would have probably voted to invade Iraq.
Or like Sarah Palin admit that she doesn't even follow what is going on in the war in Iraq...
The difference between Barack and Sarah's experience is that Obama knew the difference between Sunni and Shiite when he was in Chicago (actually that is the difference between him and Mccain as well).
"I'm surprised that no one has talked about the VP picks as examples of who these candidates will appoint to serve in their administrations... Biden shows that Obama will surround himself with qualified experts. Palin suggests that McCain will surround himself with... unqualified ideologues."
QFT.
The pundits have this all wrong. It's not really about women at all and McCain is not reclaiming his maverick image.
Palin may look different, but she has the same views on domestic issues as the current administration. (We really have very little idea of where she stands on foreign policy issues.)
This is the latest and strongest example of McCain's adoption of Rovian tactics. He has selected a runningmate who represents the extreme views of the far right of his party. It shows McCain would govern just as Bush has, without regard to the mainstream in this country and in total subserviance to the hardline views of the right minority.
Tray -- yeah, good for the sophistry of the playground, but if you pay attention the comparison falls apart. Bush's folks ran an organized campaign, and had good discipline, leakproof, etc.... but there was no Hillary in the race that Bush toppled. That is the story of the Obama campaign. The organization and the depth of understanding of the process is unparalleled. Rove did a few nasty smears against McCain, but nothing comparable to the immense effort in dozens of states that Obama's folks had to do in order to get folks to vote for him over Hillary.
When the story of the 2008 election is done, historians will focus MUCH more time on the primaries than the general. And in that way, Bush and Obama and their campaigns don't compare at all.
Divisive isn't bad when it in the mission of doing the right thing. Divisive is downright necessary at times.
The chatter about her supporting the bridge to nowhere completely exaggerates her stance. The article cited is of her demurring when asked about it shortly after she was elected, acknowledging that there did need to be some solution for the island. Then, in her first budget she did not put any money in for it, effectively killing matching funds from the Feds.
It takes a special kind of twisted logic to call that support.
Because John McCain has insulted us women with his pick. He has done a typical male thing and chosen the young, attractive, least qualified candidate for his running mate thinking that we women vote on body parts alone. He passed over extremely qualified and accomplished women in his own party to pander to us and we are not amused nor going to support this sexist action.
obviously McCain selected Palin only after PARIS HILTON declined to run with the wrinkly, old white dude...
so John chose the second rate, oops I mean second runner up beauty queen from Wasilla, AK...
fiddling with his wedding ring, indeed...
"Brian O'bama would not have gotten the black vote from Hillary, and he would have come in second place were he a white Irish Catholic."
He also wouldn't have got people voting against him because of his race, either directly or indirectly.
the comparison with JFK would have been magnified far more. He would still have won Iowa. He would still have easily beaten Edwards as Edwards isn't a great speaker, and it would have come down to Clinton v O'Bama. I have no doubt that as a speaker as inspiring would still have got wads of cash, and the "anti-clinton" and "anti-war" votes would still have been out.
He also wouldn't have suffered due to his church.
Well 24 small hours later and John McCain's plan is nothing short of shear genious.
Choosing Sarah Palin changed the entire scope of this election. Now who spent a gajillion dollars to speak where? Can't remember and nobody cares. Sucked all the oxygen out of every news room we have. Rasmussen tracking shows Obama with no gain after his night of talking... still waiting for Gallup. The bounce is over.
No one knows Sarah Palin yet and she's already getting rave reviews. Wait until convention... she will set a wildfire of positive change that will spread from coast to coast. Not this message of doom and gloom that Obama shells out by the truck load.
America will fall in love with Sarah Palin more and more, because she connects... and she gets it.
Sarah was chosen also to take the heat off McCain. Notice anyone and everyone who is afraid of this ticket are all over her like rabid dogs... and McCain is sitting back laughing at you.
America's gonna love Sarah Palin :)
McCain/Palin '08
normal being: just FYI, the harvard law review is neither peer-reviewed nor, in the classical sense, scientific. It is, however, a Big Deal.
VC,
You're grasping at straws as each of your points is destroyed. An irish ctaolic white guy would have been battling for the working class whites as people like to say and would beat her in that area. Btw, how many states did Obama win that finding a black person is like wining the lottery...the first was Iowa among many. Obama beat her on the young and progressive vote in which she dismissed as not gong to vote and Obama organized. If all Obama had was Blacks and liberal, as you claim, he would have lost like Jesse jackson. Obama excited and expanded the electorate and the anti-war position was key. If Clinton would have not been a war hawk and voted for it many claim Obama he wouldn't have run. Actually, some reports claim that Obama was gearing for Ill governor race and then a run at the presidency.
One thing that I haven't seen discussed at all: remember how McCain was supposed to help him with economic policy? I have no idea what her economic policies are, but I can't imagine that her resume gives her any serious economic clout. So, we now have a republican ticket with somewhere between no (if she is what she seems like) and very little (if she has a secret obsession with economic policy) economic expertise. It seems the Obama camp has got to pick up on that and run with it.
Sarah Palin is for drilling here and drilling now. That makes her strong on economic policy.
supposed to *pick someone* who would help him with economics, I meant.
VC -- showing your ignorant racism again.
Hillary had the overwhelming majority of the black vote until Obama won Iowa -- an almost entirely white state. He had to earn the black vote as well as the white vote. But apparently you think black people will vote for anyone just because they share a skin color. You are a racist.
I know you love being a jackass. You do it so well, too.
Im looking at the polls today and I am reminded at what happened in 1984. Richard Worthling (Reagan's pollster) said there was only one night during the entire race where his internals showed Mondale leading...the evening he chose Geraldine Ferraro.
One question: How it's possible than Obama has "only" a 4 points leads(49-45) in the Rasmussen Tracking when he leads by 13 points amoung women and trails only by 6 amoung men?
I quote Rasmussen:..."Obama currently leads by thirteen points among women while McCain leads by six among men. Among white women, the candidates are essentially even while McCain holds a substantial lead among white men..."
He has a 7 points gender gap leads and he leads only by 4? i don't understand.
"Sarah Palin is for drilling here and drilling now. That makes her strong on economic policy."
that is not an economic policy, that is an energy policy that will make virtually no difference for 20 years.
"No one knows Sarah Palin yet and she's already getting rave reviews. "
Then I would recommend the McCain campaign do what it can to keep people from knowing her. And I think they're likely to do just that.
"Shear genius" you say?
True if you mean he just cut off any chance he had of winning.
VC is like that proverbial stopped clock that's right twice a day.
McCain's Economic Policy = Drill Here Drill Now.
Absolutely true.
Virginia Con,
Eight years of Repub pretzel logic and Orwellian propaganda has brought us to where we are today, and enough is enough.
"What she meant was she wanted to know what MCCAIN would ask her to do, not what the Constitutional requirements of the office were."
Changing the intent of Palin's statement to make it conform to your political needs will not make it true.
Palin very clearly said that she does not know what the job of veep is and that someone would have to explain it to her. She then went on to say that she doesn't like sitting around, implying that the job of vice president does not involve actual work.
And, yes, if Obama had been an Irish Catholic Senator with similar experience and skills he could have won the Democratic Primary. One already did, fool, his name was John F Kennedy.
Honestly, you Repubs act like such mental midgets sometimes; no knowledge of even recent American History, no grasp of Constitutional issues, no critical thinking skills.
This really isn't that big a cognitive leap: the Harvard educated, Constitutional Law professor, United States Senator,
is more experienced than the ex-beauty contestant, figure-head mayor of a tiny town, new governor of the most sparsely populated state in the country who doesn't believe in science.
You just can't change this sow's ear into a silk purse, the raw materials simply aren't there.
But thanks for stopping by.
Sarah Palin's energy plan:
Step 1: Drill ANWR for oil
Step 2: ?
Step 3: Profit
She had the black vote, really, until Bill opened his mouth and made racist comments. That did it more than Iowa.
That would not have happened were he white.
"shear genious"
Does this have to do with trimming very serious sheep?
Sarah Palin is for drilling here and drilling now. That makes her strong on economic policy.
Admit it, you're a spoof, aren't you?
Please explain to me how being on the city council and mayor of a town with between 6500-8500 people in it qualifies as someone being an impressive reformer. The argument is absurd. The population of the town she's been the mayor of is the size of an apartment complex or a suburban neighborhood. People need to wrap their mind around how small 6500-8000 people is. There are probably 1000+ women that are Republicans with more qualifications than she has. I know a few personally. To put it in a different perspective, everyone reading this can probably think of a town they've driven through, live-in or is around where they live that has about 8000 people. Try to imagine that town's mayor becoming Vice-President in 2 years.
"Choosing Sarah Palin changed the entire scope of this election. Now who spent a gajillion dollars to speak where?
38 million viewers. More than watched the opening ceremony of the Olympics.
Sarah Palin may have changed the news cycle but it won't change the game.
Momentary blip in the arc of Obama's road to victory.
"Choosing Sarah Palin changed the entire scope of this election. Now who spent a gajillion dollars to speak where?
38 million viewers. More than watched the opening ceremony of the Olympics.
Sarah Palin may have changed the news cycle but it won't change the game.
Momentary blip in the arc of Obama's road to victory.
Energy is THE economic issue of our time, and Palin is an expert on it.
Arnaud,
Yes, the numbers for Rasmussen don't add up but he wants you to pay to see the crosstabs of how he created these numbers.
We all know the elctorate is more women than men so +13 Obama among women and +6 for men for McCain doesn't add up to +4 Obama overall....
Obama got the nomination because the Democrats are the Affirmative Action party. I knew that as soon as Obama started to game that really stupid delegate system... he would be given the nomination on a platter and no one would dare challege it but Hillary.
Race is in the race.
And don't even try to compare Palin with Farraro. No contest... and Obama ain't no Ronald Reagan.
It amazes me that Republicans rail against Affirmative Action because it puts unqualified people into positions because of their race or sex, and yet they have consistently elevated token racial minorities and women to positions for which they are dramatically underqualified. Clarence Thomas, Antonio Gonzales, Condie Rice, and Sarah Palin would never have been chosen were it not for their ability to make Republicans look slightly less bigoted.
Palin clearly would be unable to run the country in February 2009 if McCain had a stroke. This makes McCain guilty of reckless hiring for PR.
New Gallup tracker:
Obama STILL can't crack 50%!
Its funny that Conservatives think that picking a far-right Buchannan Creatonist will energize their base (even though Mccain was pulling 90% of republicans already) but they don't stop to think how it will energize the Democrats who have been mostly complacent since the primaries were over.
Rudy -- nice try. But it doesn't work. Her quotes make it clear that she didn't have a problem with the bridge at all. Sure she gave no money to it in the budget. The cause was lost. This doesn't mean she killed it. If they HAD funding from the federal government and she killed the bridge, that would be different. In fact, that's what McCain and Palin allege, and it's a stupid lie.
http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/08/29/did-palin-really-fight-the-bridge-to-nowhere.aspx
hosertohoosier wrote:
"Well, pro-life positions generally draw in more men than women."
That is untrue. Women are slightly more likely to consider themselves pro-life than men (from the 2004 federal election survey).
Actually, in a May 2008 Gallup poll, the results were women breaking pro-choice 50/43.
Interestingly, independents broke 54/38 in favour of pro-choice positions. Republicans break 66/30 towards pro-life positions.
This is also not taking into account the hard-line views that Palin holds.
So, even discounting the anti-birth control, creationist, evangelical, and Bush 28%-er baggage Palin brings into the equation, her pro-life views seem uniquely qualified to attract Republicans rather than independents.
McCain does not need more Republicans to win. He needs a broader base, and this pick just denied him that.
Look, Obama was not "put" at the top of the ticket......
but, his advisors devised a cynical two-fold strategy: first, early in the campaign, pretend that you are not a left winger with the soaring, "I won't scare the white people talk." Secondly, his advisors planned to take advantage of the flawed early caucus states. Get your people out and win. Hillary kept winning the primaries. By the time the dems found out what they really had, (Ayers, racist pastor etc) it was too late. He then barely pulled himself over the finish line. He can't talk unless he has a teleprompter in front of him. He stutters and can't think and speak coherently at the same time.
As a concervative, we are happy to have him. Hillary, as more of a generic Dem, would have won easily.
Well it looks like the convention bounce has been stopped in its tracks, according to both Rasmussen and Gallup - surprising since today's tracker drops Monday, by far the weakest day of the convention, and includes Thursday night's big Obama speech.
Dems shouldn't worry too much about it though, since everyone knew the convention bounce would be temporary. Honestly we should really just ignore everything until both conventions are well over.
"Energy is THE economic issue of our time, and Palin is an expert on it."
Care to cite her credentials? Was that from her days on the PTA or did she attend night school while figurehead of a 9,000 person town?
As a Republican who is crossing over to support Obama, two potential McCain picks worried me; 1) Mitt Romney and 2) Condi Rice.
Romney, as much as I can't stand him, was a lights-out, ready-to-take over Commander in Chief who had superb economic experience, appealed to mormons in CO and NV, had great appeal in MI (a state run poorly by Democrats and in need of economic resurgence) and would have more than held his own against Biden in a debate. McCain's own ridiculous 'houses' blunder is what cost the GOP its best possible running-mate in Romney.
Condi Rice, for all of her Conservativeness, has immense foreign policy experience in a very frightening world, has been on a national stage for 8 years, and could definitely appeal to women as well as put a few more points on the board for McCain with African Americans (I doubt with Condi on the ticket that McCain would lose AA vote 95-1 which is where he is now).
So he goes with Palin, a good woman, good person and sharper politician than the Democrats give her credit. He steals Obama's spotlight and creates a media frenzy with his pick. But this pick seems like the luster will be short lived. How is she going to answer the tough questions about national security that Condi Rice could reel off in her sleep? How is she going to enter the debate on our national economy when she is only versed in Alaskan energy independence? I actually heard some moronic GOP talking point that since Alaska borders Russia that this geography some how lends great credibility to her foreign policy experience. Huh, maybe that holds true if Russia had actually ATTACKED Alaska! I've live in California for 2 years, does that make me an expert in earthquakes? It would if I actually lived through one or two.
Only time will tell but I think this pick reflects poorly on McCain.
VC,
You do realize she praised Obama's plan? So, you're saying your newly crowned expert agrees with Obama. You are undercutting your own candidate on the issue by your statement.
August 29, 2008 --3rd anniversary of Hurricane Katrina destroying a city.
August 29, 2008 -- day McCain destroyed his campaign.
The convention bounce has been stopped by 1)the Ayers ad, and 2)Palin.
"Obama STILL can't crack 50%!"
Let us know when McCain cracks Obama.
Jack be nimble said:
By the time the dems found out what they really had, (Ayers, racist pastor etc) it was too late.
When do you think the repubs will find out what McCain is really about?
VC,
Keep spinning that. McCain just rolled the dice and rolled craps. You and ever every right winger knows it. I love to watch the spin.
Obama 322EC Votes maybe more!
Another lie from the hateful left, that Palin is anti-science.
Palin is pro-science. Plus, her father was a science teacher.
She favors exposing kids to the debate between creationism and evolution, that more information is better for students than shutting off debate.
Most people who believe that God created man also believe in the science part of evolution.
What they don't believe are the non-scientific extrapolations of evolution theory that evolutionists cannot support, and those people are many.
That Shakespeare was somehow a mathmatical inevitability has no scientific support, to say nothing of the huge numbers of unanswered questions that cannot even begin to be addressed by today's science.
Such dogmatism and bigotry are reminiscent of Gore's settled science on global warming, which becomes less settled daily.
@VC
Sorry man. Not true. While the 3-day averages for Rasmussen and Gallup turned out to be the same from TWTh to WThF (49/41, 49/41; 49/45, 49/45), the underlying single-day samples were BETTER on Friday (after Obama speech and Palin announcement) than on Thursday (before Obama speech).
So, for Rasmussen
Th - 49/46 +3
F - 50/46 +4
and for Gallup
Th - 48/43 +5
F - 47/38 +9
Short and sweet, Obama won the day on Friday and increased his lead.
Let's cut through the bullshit.
As mentioned above, President McCain has a stroke in February and dies.
In March 2009, in response to the missiles installed in Poland, Russia invades Ukraine (just a random example) to "prevent" the cleansing of ethnic Russians.
After finding the Ukraine of the "big map", President Palin responds by ___________________.......
I don't give a damn if you are D,R, or I, lib, conservative, progressive, wingnut, warmonger, etc. THAT should scare the hell out of you.
wow.
STILL no 50% for Obama. I don't think it will ever happen now.
This is great news...especially with the Palin pick dominating the news now.
Obama cannot convince a majority of Americans that he should be president.
We all know the elctorate is more women than men so +13 Obama among women and +6 for men for McCain doesn't add up to +4 Obama overall....
Some quick math reveals that for Obama to be +4 overall with those gender breakdowns, men would have to be 53% of the sample. In 2004, women made up 54% of the electorate.
Looks like yet another example of Rasmussen's likely voter model screwing things up.
"She favors exposing kids to the debate between creationism and evolution, that more information is better for students than shutting off debate. "
http://controversy.wearscience.com/
Where is PeteKent when you need him? So we are left with Virginia Conservative's pointless rubbish about, well, nothing.
Ayers ad? Dude, do you have anything original to offer the discussion? For the umpteenth time, Ayers is built into the equation -- it will not cost Obama the election.
What I find most interesting from the McCain trolls is that they are defending Palin as though she were on the TOP of the ticket. They still can't come up with even a modicum defense of McCain beyond the fact that he was a POW. All I hear from them is, "McCain was a POW, did you know that McCain was a POW?" Yes, and the dingo ate your baby.
Women may be skeptical of Palin because she's the kind of person that women often don't like. Beauty-pageant girl, hockey mom, assertive, etc. Seems to have things handed to her, like the office of governor or VP contender. The girl that makes it all look easy when it's so hard for all the other women who aren't as pretty or flirty.
McCain clearly doesn't know women if he thinks they'll turn out to vote for anyone with a uterus.
Still no 50%. Still no 50%. He is in trouble, big trouble.
Women may be skeptical of Palin because she's the kind of person that women often don't like. Beauty-pageant girl, hockey mom, assertive, etc. Seems to have things handed to her, like the office of governor or VP contender. The girl that makes it all look easy when it's so hard for all the other women who aren't as pretty or flirty.
McCain clearly doesn't know women if he thinks they'll turn out to vote for anyone with a uterus.
Another lie from the hateful left, that Palin is anti-science.
Palin is pro-science. Plus, her father was a science teacher.
She favors exposing kids to the debate between creationism and evolution, that more information is better for students than shutting off debate.
Now, that pretzel logic has got to be one of the funniest things I've read on this site's comment section, ever!!! I would love to debate this one, but I don't want to hurt anyone...
She is a global warming skeptic. Even other conservatives these days have admitted that climate change is man made, but they don't think we can do anything about it.
Palin is first and foremost, a base shoring pick.
What her pick does do though is make Roe V Wade/ Supreme court a glaring issue along just below the economy and national security.
@Rudy -
Keep believin' man. Even the good folks of Kansas said last year, "Enough!" and voted for teaching science only in their classrooms.
Support for teaching creationism probably doesn't hurt a politician in red states, but it sure don't help in purple states.
Creationism is theology, which means religion. Can't teach theology in public schools, it's calle d tha toesky thing of seperation of church and state that your rightwingers don't believe in. If you wan to teach creationism go to private religious evangelical schools. Btw, you might want to look up the Dover, PA Crircuit course case, even a Bush apppointed judge blew you wingnuts out of the water on trying to get the "intelligent design" garbage taught in schools.
David wrote:
Well it looks like the convention bounce has been stopped in its tracks, according to both Rasmussen and Gallup
Now you are just making things up.
From Rasmussen:
"The numbers are little changed since yesterday and show Barack Obama attracting 47% of the vote nationwide while John McCain earns 43%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 49% and McCain 45%"
Gallup has still Obama up 49/41.
I guess the Ayers ad and the Palin pick are having a big effect, right?
Palin is intellegent, telegenic, quick on her feet, has a great biography and a MILF to boot.
Love it McCain.
Still no 50%. Still no 50%. He is in trouble, big trouble.
So Obama's in trouble at 49%, then what does that make McCain (41%)
McCain has it in the bag!!! Obama should just give up now, he can only win 49%!!!!
If this wasn't so serious, it would be funny. An obvious "gimick", by someone who will obvously do or say anything to get elected. How can anyone with a straight face really think that this woman is qualified to be a "heartbeat" away from the Presidency? I used to hold John McCain in high regard. I thought he was a man of principle and integrity. Unfortunately I was wrong. Now he scares me. So much for, "Putting America First"
I think Andrew Heine is onto something with respect to how women relate to Palin, the beauty queen.
Lest we forget that Hillary won over her supporters over a 16 year period (1992-2208)!! Hillary has immeasurable goodwill EARNED with her supporters. Throwing Palin out there and expecting her to wooo Hillary supporters over the next TWO MONTHS is an insult to Hillary Clinton who worked her tail off to win those followers.
It means that even after the convention, even after his big speech, even after four days of Democrat propaganda, voters still have serious questions about the Democrat ticket, still don't trust Obama.
Next week I expect it to be tied again. Then, McCain/Palin surge to victory.
Daniel... What I find most interesting from the Obama trolls is that they are attacking Palin as though she were on the TOP of the ticket.
wstella,
Wow. That was a totally ignorant and insulting post to Sarah Palin.
Why don't you take a few minutes to learn about her and then come back here and post that tripe. Don't even try to say you already did.
@VC
Do take a realistic look at the RCP national average, man:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html
McCain's been oscillating between 40 and 44 since December (and before that he was at 39).
Hard to see how that converts to a winning percentage.
Obama earned his spot on the ticket against a very tough opponent.
If Brian Obama is a well-spoken attractive white Catholic male he sweeps to victory against Hil then smacks McCain. the only reason this race is close is race.
Palin has already lied about the Bridge to Nowhere, is in a scandal about abuse of power and is uninterested about the world, unless she's a great speaker this will not be pretty.
Obama earned his spot on the ticket against a very tough opponent.
If Brian Obama is a well-spoken attractive white Catholic male he sweeps to victory against Hil then smacks McCain. the only reason this race is close is race.
Palin has already lied about the Bridge to Nowhere, is in a scandal about abuse of power and is uninterested about the world, unless she's a great speaker this will not be pretty.
The thing is both Rasmussen and Gallup numbers for today include the Palin nomination and both show Obama with his widest lead in well over a month. I think we'll see things tighten somewhat, but there's no way in hell that McCain is going to get the interest that Obama did. The convention is going to be missing some of the hugest names in the GOP. There's no drama beyond seeing how many top republicans stay away from the Twin Cities. It'll be interesting for us, we'll watch, but the voters McCain needs? I think his convention bounce will be smaller than Obama's and we'll head into the debates with Obama ahead by a barely significant amount. We'll see.
dariencrow,
Yes! As I was saying yesterday, they are falling into the trap bigtime.
We have successfully put our second best vs. their best. Our best therefore, rises above the arguement altogether. Just a small part of what makes her an absolutely brilliant pick
Oh, and it stopped the bounce totally...it seems.
Darein crow,
The hypocrisy of Republicons is so amazing they don't even see it.
McCain Mr. expereince and judgement shows someone with no expereince which he touted and showed bad judgement in doing so. He showed that he is owned by the far right. They say jump..he says how high!
Nate convieniently left out the most important bit of information from the polling data:
As for voters not affiliated with either major party, 37% are more likely to vote for McCain and 28% less likely to do so.
I am pretty sure Biden was in the negatives with independents, but Palin is +9 with independents.
Nate's pro-Obama bias shows again, hiding info that is bad news for Obama.
Lee, on the bridge, the point is inescapable: as a candidate she left the door open for it, being for infrastructure projects in principle, which is what her answer indicated.
But as governor, she immediately killed it once she had more in-depth information and had to take a firm stand on the issue. Not budgeting for it kills it. Period.
She did the right thing.
Obama can't break 50%, Obama can't break 50% -- the trolls are reveling in imminent McCain victory because Obama can't break 50%!!
News Flash -- there are 5 candidates for President that have the ability to take at least 0.5% of the vote. Barr, McKinney and Nader. Combined the three will likely take about 2.5% to 3% of the national vote. So it is unlikely, in a close election, that neither McCain nor Obama will break 50%. WE ARE LOOKING AT AN ELECTION WHERE THE WINNER WILL SCORE UNDER 50% OF THE POPULAR VOTE. So, Obama being under 50% is not a omen of failure.
And, Democratic presidential candidates tend to WIN their POTUS elections with less than a majority of the vote. So when McSame starts pulling more than 44% in national polls is when I'll start to worry.
JACK BE
you forgot to mention that she has a job now that she says is "pretty cool" in comparison to the VP job which she has no clue on...
yeah, a pretty dull tack
OTF,
I would expect you to see it something like that.
Why don't you take a look to see who she defeated to become governor. Why don't you look and see who she told not to let the door hit on their way out? Yes, the answer to both are right wing republicans. She's not beholden to anyone. Neither is McCain.
Tying McCain to a third Bush term is pure rubbish. Obama votes with his party 99% of the time while McCain does so only 90% of the time. Who represents more of a departure from party politics?
Looks like the Palin announcement has stopped Obama's "bounce."
I guess now she can change her mind and withdraw and McCain can make another announcement at the Convention.
"wow.
STILL no 50% for Obama. I don't think it will ever happen now."
Wow.
Still no intelligent comments or understanding of even the basics of polling from right-wingers. I don't think it will ever happen now.
"Why don't you take a look to see who she defeated to become governor."
Who gives a fuck?
She's totally unqualified to be on any ticket. Period.
"Tying McCain to a third Bush term is pure rubbish."
Are you a bad liar or just a complete idiot?
McCain has adopted nearly every position Bush ever had, contradicting his former positions completely.
Rhys,
it's a very valid point. Even for the best of times for Obama, not even half of America wants a part of what he offers. Sorry if it's not something you want to hear.
Because of her lack of a public image in 98% of the country, Palin is going to be what the McCain campaign makes of her. She's going to "star" in the ads that are scripted to create a "Palin VP" character.
This is perfect for the McCain campaign, since they won't be burdened with too much "history" to deal with. And they'll play the "woman" card two ways, including taking the slightest criticism of her as an anti-feminist attack -- much like they feign overreaction any time there's a hint of reference to McCain being an old guy.
Todd Dugdale:
That's what I meant. It's been "stopped" - i.e. it's right where it was yesterday.
During the convention, each day (in my opinion) was better than the last. Monday was uneventful. Tuesday had Hillary giving an enthusiastic speech - which people were expecting, but was still good. Wednesday had Bill giving a great speech, which people were much more sceptical. And Thursday of course was the big Obama speech. (I don't recall now when Biden's speech was.)
Since most of this stuff happened late at night it doesn't register until the following day, so I would expect that Obama's numbers would continue to get stronger at least until today (i.e. Friday's polling results) and generally through the weekend. Nate said something similar in yesterday's post regarding how much of a convention bounce each candidate should expect, and how much should be factored out of the numbers.
Like I said, it's really not a big deal, but it's worth noting.
"As for voters not affiliated with either major party, 37% are more likely to vote for McCain and 28% less likely to do so."
And what percentage of that 37% knows ANYTHING about her at ALL?
Those figures mean nothing.
McCain could have picked Jesus Christ himself as VP and it wouldn't make any difference.......he is still going to get steamrolled by the Obama machine, he has no idea what is in store for him.
rhys,
Obama follows his party like a lemming almost ALL the time. What's your point?
He's not an independent thinker at all. Just a whole bunch of class warfare, America sucks, I will "change" it crap. Please. It's old and wreaks of emptiness.
America doesn't see McCain as Bush...every poll has proven that.
"it's a very valid point."
It's not a valid point, it's an idiotic point, because it presumes that Obama needs to get 50% when he doesn't, he only needs to get more than McCain.
Of course, half the country IS idiotic, which is the only reason this election is remotely close in the first place.
"Obama follows his party like a lemming almost ALL the time. What's your point?"
How is Obama's adherence to his party a counter-argument to McCain's adherence to Bush's policies?
Go take Logic 101 and get back to us.
Would somebody please explain to me how being mayor of a town with 6500-8500 people in it prepares you to be McCain's VP. It makes no sense at all. This is not just my perspective. David Gergen is as unbiased as they come. He was an advisor to Nixon, Ford, Reagan, and Clinton and appeared flabbergasted by this pick. I don't understand it at all. In terms of politics and demographics I get the bet. That's what I'm talking about. I'm talking simply qualifications. We can all name 20-30 conservatives he could have chosen that make more sense.
Rhys, you do realize "VOTE FOR US YOU FUCKING STUPID HICKS!" isn't a winning strategy for your party, right?
"Rhys, you do realize "VOTE FOR US YOU FUCKING STUPID HICKS!" isn't a winning strategy for your party, right?"
I'm not trying to convince you to vote for anyone. You've proven countless times that you're too stupid to reason with.
Andrew H,
I think that you are confusing Governor Palin with Congressman Marsha Blackburn.
An interesting note in the Gallup survey for Friday nights numbers:
"[Obama polled] not as well as he was polling on the individual nights of the convention."
http://www.gallup.com/poll/109900/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Continues-Lead-49-41.aspx
I had earlier posted my thoughts on the tracking polls, and that their true value was the ability to identify trends, as opposed to who is going to win at any one time (little value there, as has been discussed multiple times by Nate).
One of the interesting trends has been the existence of a weekend bump for Obama. Yet last weekend, there was a bump for McCain. It will be interesting to see how this weekend plays out.
A majority of the country voted for Bush last time.
You're calling them "stupid". That will work to win over swing voters, how?
D you neo-cons not realize why most normal people are so appalled by this selection of Palin ?
It shows how lacking in judgment John McCainm really is since this is his first major appointment.
This makes Harriet Miers nomination by Bush look good in comparison - that was just a supreme court niomination where she would have 6 other people to balance her out. There is only 1 VP, a heartbeat from POTUS...
McCain has already shown the entire world that his presidency once again would be clueless & reckless with 'mavericl' disregard for rational action on every issue - including 'global warming' & security.
Yes, McCain has dissed not only the qualified candidates in his own party, he has thumbed his nose at our country's best interests & embarrassed our nation around the world with one fell swoop of this pandering move/
Putin & Ahmadinejad must be ROFLOL since this is the kind of appointments & decisions a POTUS McCain would make... so very tragic !
Let's look at what Palin brings to the table.
She's smart, articulate and attractive. That's all that matters for public office. That is what got Obama where he now is.
She has at least the same amount of experience as Obama and has no ties to terrorists or crazy Wright / Fleiger types. Same experience and less baggage.
She helps bring a little excitement to those that vote Republican yet are apathetical about McCain. All of those that traditionaly vote for the Right will love this woman. She'll cost the Republicans no votes. On the other hand there are women that will vote Republican this year just because this will move a woman closer to the Oval Office. How many will switch sides? We don't know. We'll find out after election day.
Then there are those that still love Hillary and want a woman in office. If McCain/Palin wins then it's likely Palin will run for President in 2012. This could be a Palin vs. Hillary contest. There are some women that would see this as a win win situation even if they favor Hillary. How many? We shall see
Virginia Conservative,
Sometimes you make a decent point, other times you make no point at all. But most of the time you spout Republican talking points. You're a fuckwit. Troll someplace else.
Both Rasmussen (47 - 43) and Gallup (49 - 41) show an expected solid bounce from the convention. Both polls said these results included McCain's Hail Mary attempt to stop the bleeding. It was a panic move, plain and simple, that got him some headlines. If he'd picked Rob Portman, Eric Cantor, Mitt Romney or Tim Pawlenty, he'd be 12 points behind right now, instead of 8. Congratulations.
According to Chuck Todd - if Obama is 3 percentage points ahead on Election Day, it'll be a landslide.
As for Palin, she's been an absolute flop so far. Even with the MSM treating her with kid gloves all day yesterday, disturbing questions still arose. Jack Cafferty pwned Stephen Hayes on her selection, it was beautiful to watch.
Tomorrow better show a bounce for McCain or this whole desperate attempt to appeal to women will go down as the VP pick in history.
Now it's time for Obama/Biden to destroy what credibility McFail/Failin' have left, beginning with the video of her not knowing what a VP does.
What's really interesting about the Rasmussen poll is that Palin is viewed positively by 26% of Democrats, but only 23% of Democratic women!
As with Republicans, men are MORE likely to view her favorably than women.
It might be that Democratic women are more liberal than Democratic men, but it also might be true that women are looking more at her credentials and wondering why McCain didn't pick a more qualified woman, such as Elizabeth Dole or Kay Hutchinson or Sue Collins (although they're pro-choice). There was also Condi Rice to consider. Nobody could argue she isn't experienced enough after being Secretary of State (although I think she's been a horrible one).
On the plus side for McCain, 60% of Independent women said it was the right move for McCain. Unfortunately, that doesn't tell us much. Republican women approve by 80%, so Republican-leaning Independent women are very likely overwhelmingly approving too.
But, it flat doesn't matter what Republicans think! They were voting for McCain anyway. It's what Democrats and Democratic leaning Independents think that matters.
If Obama gets 86%-89% of Democrats (Kerry got 89%) and splits Independents evenly (he's leading by more than the 1% Kerry won by), he wins, regardless of what McCain does, because of the 8-10% party ID advantage Democrats have!
That leaves the question of what THE KEY DEMOGRAPHIC-- Democratic leaning Independent women think. These would be Independents who would naturally favor Obama, but might be swayed by a female VP to vote McCain.
This would indicate that Obama's proper line of attack is NOT to attack her for being inexperienced (he's not doing this anyway BTW), but instead to focus on her extremist views:
She's anti-abortion, even in the case of rape or incest.
She's a global-warming denier.
She's a right-wing evangelical similar to Mike Huckabee.
All down the list her views are out of step with main-street America and Democrats need to attack those views, as Hillary Clinton did, rather than going after her lack of experience.
"You're calling them "stupid". That will work to win over swing voters, how?"
I don't give a shit how it will work. It's the truth, it is what it is.
I'm not surprised by this, as a woman. Hillary Clinton has paid her dues. Sarah Palin is a very interesting woman, but not one who has earned her place on a presidential ticket.
McCain already passed over an older, less attractive woman (the mother of his kids) to marry a much younger woman. He did the same thing here, politically. Seems like he was attracted to Palin for the wrong reasons.
The trolls are a lost cause, of course, but how can anyone else possibly take McCain's VP pick seriously? He didn't even choose her until Thursday night, and he only did so for two reasons: A) He wanted Lieberman, but knew that the wingnuts on the right would revolt if he picked him, and B) He decided that his second choice (Pawlenty) wasn't exciting enough.
McCain's pick was not about governing or meeting the global challenges he's been droning on about for months. He just did it because he couldn't have Lieberman and he wanted some attention.
McCain. Putting. Country. Last.
Rhys,
It's because of people like you, that your party NEVER gets 50%.
Why is it important that Obama can't get to 50% on the best of days? Because it is his apparent PEAK. These are the most Pro-Democrat conditions I have ever seen in my life. Most pollsters have a built in 10 point advantage for the Democrats in it...and Obama STILL can't get to half way.
On the Palin vs. Obama experience debate, Obama should bluntly call out the McCain campaign on their ludicrous idea that Palin is more ready to be commander in chief. Obama should list then list his credentials. As jps said further up:
"Harvard law degree, Editor of Harvard Law Review, Professor of Constitutional Law, 20 years advocating on behalf of the voiceless, State lawmaker, Member of US Senate. Plus, the guy is flat out brilliant and an excellent motivator. He's qualified to lead by virtue of his superior intellect, perceptiveness, leadership qualities, not to mention he's humane. His campaign machine is second to none and is perhaps the best organized effort in history. That’s a testament to his management skills."
In addition, Obama has aspired to work in public policy from the get go, grasping the first opportunity he had to learn about law by majoring in political science and international relations as an undergrad at Columbia.
Obama should then propose, on top of the three debates scheduled with McCain, a fourth debate with Palin on questions about national issues, foreign policy, energy and the economy. To make this fair, Biden and McCain can debate each other too. In one fell swoop, this would put to rest the preposterous claims made by the McCain camp, Republicans and several pundits that Obama is not ready to lead, that Palin is more politically knowledgeable and experienced, and that McCain's supposedly superior judgement is exemplified by his decision to pick Palin as VP.
However, I very much doubt that the McCain camp would ever let this take place for obvious reasons.
Michael-- Gov. Palin has ties to the vile racist anti-Semite Pat Buchannan...PPat called her one of his troopers.
Floridians are wondering what she finds so appealing about a man who praises Hitler?
Guys, listen up, you are about to have a rare opportunity handed to you.
I am a woman, and I'm sneaking across enemy lines to tell you honestly a bit about how women think.
Now, speaking honestly, yes, I AM less disposed to be favorable toward Palin because of her attractiveness. And every time you men talk ignornat crap like "MILF" and "naughty librarians" and "naked panders" you lose another percent or two of the female vote. But you are wrong if you think, in your woeful male arrogance and ignorance of women, that this is "jealousy."
This is a long-simmering very female rage boiling to the surface across the nation because it pushes all our buttons when a woman's capability is judged by her looks.
Don't you GET it?
It's like every cliched joke you're ever seen where the male administrator is interviewing the luscious bimbo, who confesses she can't type, can't run a computer and isn't sure wht the job entails. "You're perfect!" he says, eyeing her boobs. "Hired!"
Sure it sounds funny... but not to the millions of well-qualified women who've actually suffered from this shit, and been passed over for hiring or promotion by some woman the male personnel manager thought was "hot."
Especially not when the job she's applying for is possible leader of the free world. My God.
I've been marvelling for a couple of months at the complete tone-deafness to women displayed by the McCain campaign, but this one is just breathtaking.
There must be NO women in decision making roles in his campaign. In fact the Palin choice confirms something I've long suspected... Cindy McCain is not a woman at all. She's an inflatable doll with a programmed voice box.
Meg Whitman, Carly Fiorina, Kay Bailey Hutchison, Mitt Romney, Charlie Crist, Tom Ridge, Lindsey Graham. I can't imagine anyone could argue with any logic that she's as qualified as they are. McCain knows all of these folks better too. They're all conservatives. It's unfair to appoint someone as your runningmate to potentially run the country that has no qualification whatsoever simply for demographic purposes. He didn't have to pick the most qualified person, but he should have picked someone that's at least qualified. Can anybody refute this?
Did she vote for Buchanan over Bush in the general election?
Anyone with any honest knowledge about polling knows that undecideds either don't vote or break nearly 50-50, or at worst will show a 60/40 split. So the "under 50%" concept is rather stupid. A 49/41 split shows that Obama has 54% of those expressing a preference (and are therefore likely to vote) and if those who don't have a preference do vote, he would pick up 4% at the worst to get 53%.
Using the 49/45 he has 52% of those with a preference and would get that or 2.5% of undecideds to end up at 51.5%.
All of these results would be higher than the vote percentage that Bush received in either election.
Population polls are also rather irrelevant with the EC and its still early, but there you go.
Of course, we all know certain people aren't interested in honest analysis.
Some math related to those crosstabs:
Obama is +13 with women. Call it 52-39.
McCain is +6 with men. Call it 48-42.
Then, assuming a 46/54 split among men/women voters, then it's 47.4% Obama, 43.1% McCain which rounds to Obama +4.
And the point about the tracking polls is NOT that "Oh the tracking poll is the same as it was yesterday, so Obama's bounce continues" it's "The tracking poll is the same as it was yesterday, so the day that was added to the sample (Friday) was insignificantly different from the day that was dropped from the sample (Tuesday). This is true for Rasmussen and Gallup.
I, however, suspect that this is less the end of Obama's bounce and more it being canceled out by McCain's VP bounce, reverting the race to the near tie it was before the Democratic convention. Obviously, we should wait for tomorrow to draw more certain conclusions.
And throwing a bone to the Obama supporters, "independents" will be slightly to the right of the national center since there are so many more Democrats than Republicans. So it's not that surprising they prefer Palin to Biden.
And I suspect that the political gender gap explains most of the Palin gender gap. It's almost as if VP picks don't matter very much.
"As for voters not affiliated with either major party, 37% are more likely to vote for McCain and 28% less likely to do so. Those numbers are a bit more positive than initial reaction to Biden."
Funny how this Rasmussen stat is left out.
Obama brilliant?? HA HA HA!! That's why he is working so hard to tax the hell out of everyone who works their hardest to make this country strong.
Real brilliant.
He's so brilliant that he doesnt even realize that oil companies don't pay taxes, they pass the costs of taxes on to consumers. So what does he propose? More taxes on oil companies. What a doofus!
"It's because of people like you, that your party NEVER gets 50%."
I'm not a Democrat. And I don't give a fuck about 50% -- that's bullshit you neocon drones come up with to help yourselves with your hopeless self-delusion.
All that matters to me is getting the incompetent, freedom-hating, senile war-mongers the fuck out of office before they start World War 3, and ensuring that the Rove/Cheney/Bush/McCain machine doesn't get to decide what SCOTUS we have for the next 2 decades. I don't care about much other than that.
"Because it is his apparent PEAK."
Apparent peak because you assholes want it to be so, doesn't mean it actually is so.
"These are the most Pro-Democrat conditions I have ever seen in my life. Most pollsters have a built in 10 point advantage for the Democrats in it...and Obama STILL can't get to half way."
Try actually thinking for a change.
The reason Obama is not running away with this is because he's so different, because he has a funny name, because he doesn't have a long track record, and because a double digit percentage of Americans are fucking racists.
It is a testament to how pissed off Americans are with the Bush crime syndicate that he's even a nominee at all.
Or put another way -- how is it that a so-called "maverick" with 20+ years of experience, a self-styled "war hero" is losing to some young punk from Chicago with a name that makes stupid people think he's a Muslim?
Put that in your pipe and smoke it.
In regards to the polling of women, i think that you are missing the finer point. One of the last group of undecideds that have been identified in focus groups (see: Joe Klien):
Women
In the Upper Midwest
Between 35-50
White
Ideologically independent (meaning not party line voters as opposed to always Nader, etc.)
Chief Economic anxiety = the special interests always get the special favors.
unless the Rassmussen poll only touched these voters, then it doesn't have much value to me.
Let's be honest, the majority of the "pants suits" Hillary voters are not going to vote for someone opposed by NARAL or Emily's list.
But then again, they do not make up that undecided block I spoke of earlier.
"worst" VP pick in history.
BTW, can someone, preferably a wingnut, tell me why exactly a woman, who apparently has a bright future in the Republican Party, would join a losing ticket? Is the shit really hitting the fan in Alaska, and she wants out? This ticket could destroy the future of the party. Bobby Jindal has ZERO chance of ever becoming president. His extreme right-wing views, like sweetcakes, are nutty and he looks creepy. Bad combo.
I've seen McFail/Failin' together and it isn't attractive. In fact, they're clearly awkward together. And that People Magazine family photo is hilarious. McCain looks like a dry roasted peanut.
custos,
Great post. Thanks.
filistro
thanks for the insightful post.
hope Nate reads it. maybe you should email it to him.
Why isn't the Palin bounce higher? I don't understand this? She's a game changer, takes the wind out of his sails and she can only cut a small dent into his convention bounce. Man, I really thought that our little point guard would set the world on fire. It's like everything I knew to be true has been turned wobbly. I hope Hurricane Poetic Justice doesn't take away too much attention from our triumphant declaration of functional retardation!
By the way, I think the McCain campaign should have checked out Mean Girls before making this pick. I obviously don't have any research to back it up, but the popular pretty girls are always, always hated my the majority of other girls. Always.
On the other hand, she's a perfect pick:
1. Appeals to the evangelical Christian base: Pro-life, creationist, anti-gay marriage.
2. Appeals to big oil (Of course, in Alaska even the progressive Dems are pro-drilling in ANWR. )
3. Lifetime member of NRA, and she cooks what she kills.
4. Despite the above, as a woman she contributes to McCain's recently-re-tooled "maverick" reputation.
There's no doubt, McCain puts the "tool" back in "re-tooled"
The Palin announcement DID end Obama's bounce.
From Gallup:
"On this day -- with strong partisan forces pushing the public in both directions -- Obama still polled better than he had been prior to the convention, but not as well as he was polling on the individual nights of the convention."
Tomorrow, Obama's best polling day ever will be removed from the average and Obama's lead will drop significantly.
It seems Repub's are sticking to the idea that the actual person who is the POTUS and VP is fairly irrelevant, but rather, that the conservative or neo-conservative movement can pull the strings behind the scene. Scenario: Who would the Repub nominee be if McCain died in Sept/Oct of this year? Palen?... They would not hesitate because it's just a nameplate and not the person truly in charge(Cheney operatives need apply).
It absolutely blows my mind that the numbers could be so high. How could anybody, with any level of basic intelligence, think this person with no experience, no knowledge of anything outside a very small sphere, be ready for such an incredibly important position. Is the American public this stupid? I seriously would have though only smallest portion of the most right wing supporters would get excited about this pick. I mean come on. It has to be a time when Americans realize this is not funny anymore. America is too important to the rest of the world to have such blanent incompetence so close to the highest, most powerful position in the world. McCain, Obama and Biden all have the ability to hold this position. So did H. Clinton and other very dynamic women. Palin is a small town and small town only! She maybe a wonderful governor of small state (importance wise). I think that is very respectful and should be noted. But for god sakes. Let's pull our head out of our ass. Running Alaska and running the U.S. government are incomparable. This is shameless, dangerous and down right crazed. I think her selection has watered down one of the most dynamic and interesting elections of my life into one big tabloid article. Shame on McCain!
Brilliant piece detailing numerous reasons why Palin is the wost pick ever at Huffpost.
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