FiveThirtyEight is featured today on Political Lunch.
I'll be a guest tomorrow on KCRW's (NPR's Los Angeles affiliate) To the Point, at about 1:10 PM Central Time.
Sports, not politics, but my annual piece on the top 50 players in baseball is up at SportsIllustrated.com. Dustin Pedroia is #40.
And look for 538-related material soon at New York Magazine and on bloggingheads.tv. (EDIT: Here is that nymag.com piece, the thrust of which is 538: The Cliff's Notes Version.)
An actual, value-added thought follows below the jump.
It's probably just a matter of the punditry all being bored and thinking out loud at once, but when you start to see stuff like this...
...is there not a little bit of danger to the Obama campaign? If I were a high-information Hillary loyalist, I'd be getting my hopes up right about now.
With that being the case, would it not be in the interest of the Obama campaign be moving to quash the "it could still be Hillary!" rumors -- assuming she is not the pick? And since the rumors haven't been quashed, does this therefore indicate that she might be the pick?
8.21.2008
Unabashed Media Whoring (and Open Thread)
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Nate you're hilarious! It's become almost like the poison drinking scene in the Princess Bride.
I do think that if she was not on the list, the Obama camp would be putting out some kind of signal....but the tide is turning her way....if he doesn't announce today....then I think her chances go up with each day. But what the hell do any of us know??? :)
First?! With the Braves going the way of the Republican party, here's hoping Brian McCann makes the top 25 ...
This article from HuffPo suggests it always makes sense to have your Presidential nominee appear to be close to choosing lots of different people.
If, this late in the game, Hillary is still a possibility, it brings Hillary voters in more than if she had been completely ruled out weeks ago.
The Hillary chatter is a joke, at least on Halperin's part. Click through to the "what this speculatio is based on" and you're greeted with extra-large red font reading: "NOTHING!!!!!"
That said, there has been much ado about that "nothing."
I really don't like the idea of Hillary Clinton being within a few missed heartbeats of the presidency, but I have to admit the tea leaves are looking favorable for her.
In other news, great to see Obama finally growing a pair and going on the offense.
Steve: The Braves are doing horribly, but their top player is coming up from behind and might stage a surprise victory later this fall? Haven't heard about that... ;)
Open thread!
Okay, thought from the recesses of my mind. How much does McCain's lead in some national polls have to do with the fact that August is a ridiculously slow political news month (particularly when it's competing with the Olympics and a war in Georgia)? We've seen the phenomenon before where Obama's numbers start to fall right after his coverage does, but does anyone have hard numbers on this?
McCann is the best hitting catcher in BB (HRs and RBIs) following in the footsteps of the immortal Mike Piazza.
I am betting Utley makes the top 5.
David Wright gotta be in the top 10at least (with a bullet). Do you get points for class?
I don't think HRC as VP will happen.
If Obama does so he will look weak.
He has been pressured and he will not cower.
HRC and her silly minions have already made it impossible to make her VP by demanding it.
Whoop's
The idea has the same credibility as the PUMA's retiring HRC's debt.
There is no there there.
IMO
A thought on negative ads & why they work:
Chemotherapy is nasty stuff, nobody denies it, but it saves lives. It works by killing the cancer cells in your body faster than it kills the rest of the cells in your body. It seems to me that the reason negative ads work is that they work like chemotherapy: they drive up your opponent's negatives faster than they drive up your own. Now the challenge with this is that you can't go too negative, too soon. The longer you wage a negative campaign, the less impact the chemo will have on your opponent, and the more your own negatives will creep up.
So the question is, has McCain gone too negative too soon? Is Obama's negative response going to eventually back fire on him?
You guys are missing everything.
As far as Hillary goes, I think Nate is onto to something here.
You do not set up 18 million voters for disappointment. Unless Axelrod and Plouffe ain't that smart.
The timing on this looks terrible. Now it looks like desperation pick. He should have selected her in Unity on NH in late June and he might have been cruising by now.
Instead a late pick will make him look weak and then make her the story for weeks.
Obama is already perceived as something of a panty waist, the debonair, slightly effeminate man who could get blown over by a good gust of wind.
Letting Hillary dominate the news cycle just before and through the convention will serve to upstage him and cause many voters to wonder if he really does have the stones to be our President.
After all he had to go running to Mommy for help!
And then, as Nate suggests, if he doesn't pick her, there are going to be a lot of growling PUMAs out there.
Let the madness begin!!!!
"I don't think HRC as VP will happen.
If Obama does so he will look weak.
He has been pressured and he will not cower."
I don't agree. If he had named Clinton as his VP much earlier, when her surrogates were asking for it, he would have looked weak. But then the CW basically coalesced around the idea that he wasn't going to pick her and everybody started (and mostly continues) to look elsewhere. Ironically, this had actually freed him up to choose her, since it would be seen primarily as a big surprise, not as Obama simply caving in to pressure. Of course, much of the narrative would depend on HOW Obama explained it and what people from the two camps said. But although Obama detractors will say that he chose her because he was desperate, I don't think that the media will necessarily focus on that story. Non-political junkies (i.e., almost everybody except us) will just see it as Obama choosing the strongest running mate, and one who appealed to millions of voters in the primary. Of course, he won't name Clinton as VP if he doesn't really want her, since he is very clearly the one in charge of his campaign. But he is a pragmatist and there is zero evidence to suggest that he dislikes Clinton personally.
Great setup Pete.
He picks Hillary: He's weak and "running to mommy."
He doesn't pick Hillary: He's egotistical and ignoring 18 million voters.
You're a shitty analyst, but a great debater. I would even go so far as to call you a master debater. I really would.
I suppose its telling that of the baseball players you chose, all are white. Not coincidental, if you ask me.
Going to check out the list now. Wonder if Quentin breaks the top 50. He's got almost no history behind him to show whether this is a huge fluke of a season or something big brewing, so I imagine it's hard to nowcast him either in or out of the top50.
From the places I've encountered them, Hillary diehards pretty much hate all of the pundits, so I can't see them getting too excited about this.
Or maybe the Obama campaign is NOT moving to quash the "it could still be Hillary!" rumors because doing so would lead some to assume she is not the pick, and if the rumors are not being quashed, this therefore indicates that she might not not be the pick and Obama would not want her supporters to assume that she might not not be the pick and not quashing rumors would support that un-belief. I;m just sayin'. Got that?!
I just read an interesting column by a Hillary Clinton supporter describing the emotional difficulty of switching over to Obama.
Here's the link:
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/chi-oped0818unityaug18,0,4576225.story
She said it took her over a month, and she is a lawyer (not usually known for their emotional frailty). A number of people has speculated on why Obama's numbers seemed to fall so rapidly, and a bit part of explanation could be as simple as the fact that Hillary was back in the news and her supporters remembered how much they wanted her to win. It would explain why McCain's numbers didn't seem to be going up as much as Obama's numbers seemed to be going down. (I use the past tense because the movement away from Obama seems to have halted, at least in the polls being released today.)
Pander:
My favorite player of all time: Willie Mays. Talk about class.
I hate the Phils, but give grudging respect to Jimmy Rollins.
Unfortunately young black men are abandoning the game of baseball. It takes a lot of room to build a field and there is less and less of it in big cities where they tend to live. Not so with basketball courts. Go LeBron!
I thought Lastings Millege was a player with a lot of potential, till he got traded to the Nats.
Credit Omar Minaya with bringing in an excting group of Latin players and making the game even more international.
Brandon Phillips would be my pick player for 2B on any team, even over Utley. Something special about that young man.
Feel better now?
You forgot to complain that John McCain has a house in all fifty-seven states.
Personally, I made the case for Hillary days ago, pretty much as Nate has it: all her negatives are irrelevant now that McCain has rallied the base anyway.
But, then there's the 1000 lbs. gorilla in the room: Bill. Who knows what "stuff" he's been up to since 2000. Rumors abound. You can bet there's plenty of McCain oppo research about every little thing and some attack ads already planned just in case.
Here's what Obama is really thinking, in his own words:
So let's do some deconstruction, read some tea leaves, and try to figure out who Obama is--and isn't--talking about:
I try to surround myself with people who are about getting the job done, and who are not about ego, self—aggrandizement, getting their names in the press...
Okay, so the first qualification he mentions is someone who won't be all that interested in getting his or her name in the media. That would seem a high bar for the famously voluble Joe Biden to clear.
I think people will see that I'm not afraid to have folks around me who complement my strengths...
Obama is both gifted and precise in the way he uses language. Here, interestingly, the word he chooses is "complement," not "supplement" or "augment." This would suggest that this choice will be someone who has experience or expertise that Obama himself lacks, rather than a pick--such as Bill Clinton's of Al Gore in 1992--that reinforces his message. My guess here is that is not good news for either Governor Kathleen Sebelius or Tim Kaine. Though both have executive experience that he doesn't, their chief political assets are much the same as Obama's, in that they bring an ability to blur party lines.
I'm not a believer in a government of yes—men. I think one of the failures of the early Bush Administration was being surrounded by people who were unwilling to deliver bad news, or who were prone to simply feed the president information that confirmed his own preconceptions.
This may well be the most telling part of his answer. It sounds as though he is offering a rationale for picking someone who has disagreed with him in the past on something big, and the Iraq War immediately leaps to mind.
All that put together, if I were to guess who it would be based strictly on what Obama himself has said, I would say the pick is either Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana (low profile, both executive and foreign policy experience, but a supporter of the Iraq War), or a surprise whose name has not been circulating on the pundits' short lists.
And of course, we'll know the answer soon.
My take on Bayh? Shrug. No snap. No crackle and no Pop.
He's smart and articulate and stays on message well as a water carrier. Beyond that?
I don't usually pimp dKos diaries, but this one actually makes a persuasive case that the VP is Schweitzer or Sebelius. Food for thought.
There's a part of me rooting for Schweitzer - he's a hell of a character.
JSN:
I think the HuffPo article you cite makes more sense whe you ae talking about asuaging ideological elements. Like McCain trying to signal that he is somewhat broad minded on abortion. It has less applicability where the focus is a person.
Mrs. Clinton is not really fungible with Gov. Sibelius. Although perhaps you could swap her for Gerry Ferraro. (Another icon of the aprty who got vilified by the Obama machine -- and you wondr why these women are mad?)
"Although perhaps you could swap her for Gerry Ferraro. (Another icon of the aprty who got vilified by the Obama machine -- and you wondr why these women are mad?)"
Aren't you supposed to say Obama 'threw her under the bus'? You're starting to forget your own talking points!
Another McCain gaffe today...the blogs are all over it, including Obama. Colorado's water last week, $5 million makes you rich on Saturday, and now forgetting how many houses he has.
I was just saying earlier today how McPampers needs babysitting.
Pander,
On the substance of my post re HRC:
EAT MY SHORTS!
Nah, just kidding.
You may think I am just a masturbator, ahem, master debater, but the truth is Obama now has screwed himself on this Dream Ticket thing. He waited too long, and will look reactive to the polls. The media will have a field day with it, especially b/c they were caught flat footed and hate to be outsmarted by uppity candidates of any color.
And seriously, if the frenzy that he might at the last minute pick her really picks up and he doesn't pick her then there are going to be a lot of very disappointed folk out there.
It is especially critical, as Nate has suggested, that if it is not going to be HRC, that he let the air out of that balloon now.
Imagine if he goes with the last minute, we'll walk out on stage together show in Indianapolis (where do they come up with this crap?) and he shows up with Evan Bayh on his arm.
Lead balloon.
Variety: Obama Lays and Egg!
The more this whole VEEPMANIA08! goes on, the more things are looking favorable for Hillary. Why?
1. She plays a great attack dog. We learned that in the primaries.
2. She has some foreign policy credientials. Notwithstanding the whole Bosnia thing (which will be a non-issue in the same vein as Rev. Wright)...
3. She brings experience to the ticket.
4. She will bring health care into focus again, and make it a priority for the campaign. I don't think anyone can argue against her record concerning health care legislation, and it's a topic that is of significant advantage to voters (dems have around 20% favorability ratings concerning health care). And it'll make it an issue that Obama can delegate her to with success if/when he gets into the White House.
5. She is a good campaigner, and will be a great surrogate in Rust Belt States
6. The repubs are going to attack whomever Obama chooses, so he might as well pick someone with the name recognition that he needs for a swing of support (I really think that if he picks her, his numbers go into the high forties/low fifties)
Why I think it may happen:
1. The more time Obama waits, the less time he has to gin up name recognition. Ergo, every day he waits, the more familiar the name needs to be. Kerry named Edwards early in 2004 in part because they needed time to build his image and bio in the public. If you pick someone with high name ID, you don't need to spend time doing that.
2. The Obama campaign staff has been legendarily tight-lipped about everything thus far in the process. Do you really think they would let 3 names float in the media and then pick one of those 3? The watertight Obama campaign?
3. Maybe I'm reading way too far into this, but the VP chief of staff for the campaign is Patti Solis Doyle, someone who Clinton would be familiar with. But I don't think her departure from the campaign ended well, so maybe this is a reach.
4. As mentioned above, she's a great attack dog. Obama seems like the Hawaii trip was his pivot into attack mode, and he really does need someone who can attack and do it well, without getting his hands too dirty.
5. The Unity factor. There are a lot of undecided voters who are still looking at Obama with a level of suspicion. A lot of these undecided voters are Hillary supporters who aren't ready get behind Obama.
6. She reinforces the importance of pro-choice in the process. She has a lot of credibility here and the more Obama's team can remind voters of the Supreme Court's collective age, the better chance he has of turning out women to vote for him.
I could go on for awhile, but I'll stop because in a couple of hours I'm just going to look like an idiot anyways.
So, in Rasmussen, it's Obama by 3 or 2, while in Gallup it's one. But here, it's tied on popular vote. Still. I'd still love to hear Nate explain this one.
It makes me nervous that every time Hillary's in the news, Obama's numbers go down. Is that Hillary supporters backing away from Obama, or anti-Hillaryites who get nervous remembering that Obama is in the party of Hillary?
I still think that having two people who reply to "Mr. President" in the White House is a horrible idea. I don't mind Hillary as veep. It's Bill that bugs me. You know he'd be trying to control everything, and there can only be one boss.
McCain also said he'd bring back the draft. I mean, WTF, dude?!?!
Shap:
Pls permit some literary license. it can get dreay to use the same hackheyed phrases all the time. Besides, Gery was never actually on his bus to begin with!
****
Nobody else wanna talk Baseball? it is an open thread, you know!
oooooooohhhh, it looks like the ShiKago boys are back. And how sweet it is.
And that he'd have picked Cheney and Rumsfeld for his administration, declaring they're "Our Strongest Team."
But that was back in January, 2001, when he was younger and wiser.
Gee Nate, I guess I can say I knew you when you were a political pup at Kos. Shoulda' snapped up your rookie cards. LOL
Good to see a proud liberal dominant in his industry.
Hi Nate,
Just curious. Why did you mention that "Dustin Pedroia is #40." Seemed kinda random but I"m relatively new here. Maybe I missed something the way :)
Anybody here besides Krusty not know how many homes they own?
Open thread cool!
There was discussion of the Obama campaign's negative attacks on McCain not having a central theme.
Here's a good one:
John McCain: Out of touch at home and reckless abroad.
Hammer away on those two with every ad and have the surrogates repeat that message in every venue.
BTW - I am thinking it's HRC given the wait.
BTW2- If Youks isn't in Pecota's top 25, Nate is a wanker. ;-)
Nate stoped being a wanker when he predicted the boys from the North Side becoming the 2008 world champs.
What a wonderful fall it might turn out to be for Chicago. The city shall burn!!! :)
emperorwillis said...
Hi Nate,
Just curious. Why did you mention that "Dustin Pedroia is #40." Seemed kinda random but I"m relatively new here. Maybe I missed something the way :)
------------
Because Pedroia is the poster child for stats based analysis over traditional scouting. Pecota loved him ("but he just hits") and the scouts hated him ("he's too small"). He was ROY last year and will likely get some MVP votes this one.
realist, thanks for the explanation about Pedroia.
How come republicans are not glowing about polls today.
FL-ARG-Obama-1
NEV-RES 2000-Obama +1
Ahhh, but my favorite comes from those liberal wankers over at Fox showing McCain holding Obama to +3 :)
BTW2- If Youks isn't in Pecota's top 25, Nate is a wanker. ;-)
He's 29 years old, and players with his skill set (and first basemen in general) tend to age poorly. He isn't a bad player, just one that I wouldn't build a team around.
I'm personally interested in seeing which old players make the top 25.
Today's polls:
National FOX News Obama 42, McCain 39 Obama +3
Pennsylvania Rasmussen Obama 48, McCain 45 Obama +3
National Gallup Tracking Obama 45, McCain 44 Obama +1
National Rasmussen Tracking Obama 48, McCain 46 Obama +2
New Hampshire Rasmussen Obama 47, McCain 46 Obama +1
Nevada Reno Gazette-Journal McCain 43, Obama 44 Obama +1
Maryland Rasmussen Obama 53, McCain 43 Obama +10
National CBS News/NY Times Obama 45, McCain 42 Obama +3
National NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl Obama 45, McCain 42 Obama +3
Minnesota Minn. Pub. Radio Obama 48, McCain 38 Obama +10
Something for both sides to chew on. NV and MN promising for Obama, PA and NH promising for McCain (I doubt the PA poll isn't an outlier though).
National polls all 1-3 point Obama advantage.
Jaiti, thanks I didn't know about FL-ARG poll.
This with the NV and MN results should limit the crowing by our resident Mac boys.
Open Thread?
I think all of these end up as open threads sooner or later...
I laughed at this question from the Faux News poll:
"7. If John McCain were running for president with Hillary Clinton as his vice presidential running mate, would you vote for the McCain-Clinton ticket or the Democratic ticket?"
The answer? The Democratic ticket beats the McCain-Clinton ticket 39-35.
jaiti,
Apparently, you cannot read. McCain leads ODUMBO in Florida by one. ODUMBO leads McCain in NH by one.
Also, ARG is not this sites favorite polling firm.
Jack Black,
Apparently you don't know the difference between a plus and minus sign. I guess Obama-1 to you somehow reads Obama+1....someone yesterday was saying that Florida was moving away from Obama, yeahhhhhhhhhh.
I guess you must not be the one who eats Arugula and is a pointy professor material :)
realistxxx
your list missed the best of the national pollsters out today, the new weekly:
Economist/YouGov 8/18-20/08 1000 A Mc-38 Ob-39 OTHER-4 UND-16 NV-3
it shows the real trend is both down 2%, all movement to UND @ 16% [up 4%]
last week:
Economist/YouGov 8/11-13/08 1000 A Mc-40 Ob-41 OTHER-4 UND-12 NV-2
this is the best national poll to track for trends as shown over the entire summer since it is weekly & non-push on the OTHER & UNdecideds & Not Voting is tracked.
Easy to track the toplines directly from the Pollster National poll page against all the others. this is best with solid model & good internals & crosstabs which can be directly linked from that page.
News today is not great for either candidate. No 'movement' up for either - they BOTH tick down. Negative ads seem to have driven down both to the bare bases as expected in late summer before Labor Day. But it shows the success of the negative ads in driving down support across the board. No evidence that voters are switching though, but suppress/turn-off could work in a close race. It has managed to get McCain back into the equation evidently at least for the moment, but does not prove it is assisting him in getting more votes.
even the new FAUX poll supports this with high undecideds being the real trend as both are slipping... 19% UND but no OTHERS.
FOX 8/19-20/08 900 RV Mc-39 Ob-42 UN-19
still the polling shows that there is about 20+/-% of the electorate still potentially in play as of today.
Will see what this ECON/YouGov poll shows as the weekly trend over the next 3 weeks after the conventions.
The NYT/CBS poll was made-up of 1000 or so pollees, 800 or so who were registered voters. That can't be too reliable could it?
Runner up for MVP Matt Holiday ranked #27??? - Are you frikkin' kidding me?! Look at his stats this year and take into account he missed time with an injury. He's a young, monster of a player who can hit for average and power.
FOLLOW-UP ON OBAMA'S VIRGINIA FIELD OPERATION
This comes from a friend who has worked in Democratic Party field operations for many years, and is now working in Virginia for a down-ticket Democrat. Note the disturbing comments about Richmond. It sounds like Obama's people are arrogant, which is a killer in a political campaign.
"I don't know what (Obama's) plan was except to open A LOT of offices in Virginia. There are, I think, 30 at last count. He's really building a presence more than anything else, so no matter where you go, there is an Obama field office.
"A good field plan has 2-3 elements to it including direct voter contact (door-to-door, which I enjoy and try to use as much as possible and phone calls, which I hate and generally outsource as much as possible), house parties/meet and greets, and neighborhood organization.
"The most important part is knowing your community leaders and using them to help build an organization around your candidate. From what I gather, this is probably what ultimately hurt him in New Hampshire, since that is a place where people take their role as community leader/opinion maker very seriously.
"The problem (as I see it, and others I know) is that Obama's campaign isn't tapping into existing Democratic community leadership, and is actually actively working around them.
"At least that seems to be the case in Virginia. In a town that voted 70% for Obama (Richmond) I hear a lot of grumbling from community leaders about his campaign.
"Anyway, as for direct voter contact, I think they are setting their canvassers up with really ridiculous expectations -- they think they are going to change minds one at a time at the door, and when, in rural Virginia, they are actually met with people who may (shock!) disagree with them, they get either discouraged or take it upon themselves to try and spend all day convincing them."
The Fox News poll was less interesting for reporting Obama at +3 then for its questions about the Democrats VP choice.
Respondents generally reported that they would be less likely to vote for Obama if Biden, Bayh or Kaine were his running mate. The overall result was mixed for HRC too but 56% of Democrats say Clinton would be the best choice but only 41% of Independents and 28% of Republicans.
Damn! A one-point lead among likely voters for Obama in NEVADA??? That's, that's, that's [spews vitriol] Republican territory!!! It's a red state!
I think Scott Rasmoid had better comission a new Nevada poll immediately. I expect one by close of business tomorrow showing a soothing three-point lead for McSame.
Hey, why can't McHouses close the deal in Florida? That and the North Carolina poll from yesterday aren't looking too good! And my ears are still ringing from the houses business. Yikes. It's like one huge gaffe every four days or so? LOL.
IMHO said...
"The NYT/CBS poll was made-up of 1000 or so pollees, 800 or so who were registered voters. That can't be too reliable could it?"
1000 sample is fine if the polling model & methodology is well done. And if one takes it as only a snapshot for the moment [not as fact] within the MOE.
Note that most of the pollsters use that size sample +/-, inc. FAUV [900 RV].
But the hard #'s produced are not very reliable in August - they are really only worth considering for tracking trendlines and/or for averaging among a number of polls like Nate & Pollster & RCP do. IMO & experience
a small 500 sample size like Rasmussen uses intrastate is getting on the low side for polling IMO, but that is part of why RR state #'s often swing so wildly [as well as changes in weighting, etc.]
Pete Kent:
I agree on the timing point and on the impact on HRC's supporters. The longer he diddles and delays the more indecisive he looks (no matter how many times they say he decided on the beach in Hawaii).
The 24/7 newscycle of the Internet era makes delaying like this a lot worse than eight years ago or earlier. IMO, Obama lost an opportunity to dominate the political story this week, even with Georgia and Poland and the hurricane factored in.
"Statistically speaking, [Zambrano'] still a No. 2 starter masquerading as a No. 1"
WTF
I appreciate that is dropping K rate is worrisome, but his top comparable is Jake Peavy. He throws a heavy ball with tons of movement and is rarely if ever physically injured. Even with his mood swings, he is one of the most consitent pitchers in his age group. I would take the Mad Venezuelan over everybody accept Lincecum. But what do I know.
I'm happy to see that Obama jumped on McCain's seven houses, but I'm not confident that Obama will stay on the attack. I hope he does, because this is a good opportunity to define McCain as just one more rich Republican.
I think calling him "Seven Houses John" would be great. Obama's staff should research these places, and he could glowingly describe them in his speeches, concluding by asking his audiences: "If you had ONE house like that, wouldn't you just about think you had died and gone to heaven? Would you FORGET you owned it?"
But no, I'm sure Obama will be back to "honoring my opponent's service" soon enough.
dwbh,
Taking that schedule info at face value, it sure looks like Schweitzer could be the dark-horse pick. Taking Biden or Bayh on that particular tour seems silly, with their spit-and-polished Washington boots. The tour completely avoids places where HRC got a lot of her support in the primaries. It might be Sebelius, but that'd beg the question of why Obama doesn't just go through Kansas instead of going way the hell out of his way to make a campaign stop in Montana.
The money would be on Kaine, but Billings seems like a funny head fake considering that the MSM has totally ignored the grass-roots support for Schweitzer. Then again, it could be an indication that Obama really wants to swing Montana's three electoral votes into his column - but the timing seems off to me.
Definite tea leaves. I'm thinking it's going to be one of the three governors: Kaine, Schweitzer, or Sebelius.
Nice article in the New Yorker.
But Michigan is as much a battleground state as is Missouri.
Obama needs 1/3 Colorado, Virginia or Ohio.
And if you want to stretch this Obama needs one of two, Colorado or Ohio.
Carlos Quentin should be #1.
I didn't see any comment on this yet, but Obama apparently has made his decision but isn't announcing it yet. Here is the relevant quote from the USA Today story:
"Obama said he wanted somebody who is 'prepared to be president' and who will be "a partner with me in strengthening this economy for the middle class and working families."
He said he was looking for not just a partner but a sparring partner. 'I want somebody who's independent, somebody who can push against my preconceived notions and challenge me so we have got a robust debate in the White House.'"
That sounds to me like he is going for Clinton, and couching in a "Team of Rivals" sort of way, as I have suggested previously that he could. Who knows for sure, though, and it could be a surprise like Brian Schweitzer.
If Obama plays wise and teams up with the Colorado Democratic Party to destroy McCain on those Colorado River Compact comments he made last week, he's got that state in the bag*.
If the Obama ground game in Ohio takes advantage of that new special Ohio voting law to register tens of thousands of college kids to vote Democratic, he's got that state in the bag*.
If Warner gives a great keynote address with lots of references to Obama and the visionary leadership we need for the future of America, he's got that state in the bag*.
* Unless McCain goes nuclear or Obama is caught with something really toxic.
It's 3:15. Obama's still not announcing his veep.
Are they embarrassed by the pick or what? You want to leak it tonight, announce it unofficially tomorrow, and campaign with them on Saturday. Otherwise, the newspapers don't get to publish about it until it's old news.
Arrrgh.
DCM in FL,
I am quite impressed. Didn't know you perused the ECON Poll. The most accurate Poll out there. Probably the true state of the race, as it polls over three days every week!
I agree, By the end of September, this poll should tell us where the election is going.
Obama quoted as saying "above my pay grade" on google search, up from 26,000 this morning to 146,000 this afternoon. I will let you know when he gets to the 1 million mark.
Heh, what a dumbass. Now no matter what he does it will be anti-climactic and buried in the weekend.
All the logic is so clearly pointing to Biden that I just bet a good sum of money on him winning (at very short odds)
Ipso facto...its going to be anyone but Biden :-(
I don't understand the strategy here either, Matthew H. Best indications seem to be that Obama is just going to wait until Saturday for the rollout, and all the "early next week" rumors being floated last week were just a way to generate anticipation.
I'll amend what I said earlier...Clinton is surely still in the mix.
pluckon--the Obama team is sticking to this. They have 16 events on this in every state. All the local papers in battleground states are running with it. The response from the Reps is officially---Rezko, Erzko, Ayres, and cry POW plus 'the homes are owned by Cindy you are hitting below the belt'. This is not going to stop because it has traction and it is one of those blunders that just cannot be undone by McCain explaining. Oh and it is on audio too. His own words.
The increase in the number of undecideds is curious at this point in the contest but so is the support for "other" candidates. Pollster.com no longer shows a "Reverse Nader Effect" favoring Obama and surprising support for the lesser party candidates.
Negative campaigning may turn some voters into undecided but is there any reason why there should be 5-6% combined support for the 3rd, 4th and 5th party candidates so late in this contest?
The house gaffe plays on two levels:
Did he forget how many houses he has because he's an out of touch elitist or is it because he's senile? Or is it some combination of both?
There is no doubt in my mind that the Obama camp is going to stick to this theme.
They needed to wait for McCain to attack him first, get the media to clearly say the attacks were unfair and untrue and get the public to believe McCain is the one that is more negative.
Check, check and check.
Classic rope-a-dope. Obama took a few punches and even some cheap shots, that tightened the polls, but now has the cover to hit back.
Not sure what the hell is wrong with the "above my pay grade" comment. Religiosity aside (which was appropriate considering the setting), I think that was a graceful and respectful way to demur with regards to that question. I don't think it's the president's job, much less a senator's job, to determine when human life begins.
There is no way Obama is announcing his veep today. They are haing too much fun beating up McCain with his "houses" comment to step over their news cycle through the veep announcement.
sorry that should read 'every battleground state'
xyz,
Agreed. I woke up expecting that text message today, just as I did yesterday and the day before and the day before that, but with this wonderful gimme from McCain to play with, why not hold off until Saturday morning?
(A reveal tomorrow would be anticlimactic, as the newspapers wouldn't pick up the story until Saturday's sunrise edition, at which point Obama and the Mystery Veep would already be on the trail.)
Here are some stats for one of our newest trolls, "Above My Pay Grade":
Google search for:
McCain + Reinstate the Draft: 59,100 hits
McCain + Vicki Iseman: 108,000 hits
McCain + Keating Five = 165,000 hits
McCain + Iraq Pakistan Border = 190,000 hits
McCain + Czechoslovakia = 285,000 hits
McCain + c*nt = 462,00 hits
McCain + bomb Iran = 555,000 hits
McCain + 100 years = 1,430,000 hits
McCain + seven homes = 30,500,000 hits
This game is fun! And easy!!
It's could be McCain's barcode scanner.
(Even though that's sort of an urban legend.)
Mark, the question was a legal question every student must answer in Constitutional Law II that Barrack Obama taught at UC. The question was not, "When does life begin?" as Obama's clan is spinning it. The question was "When should a baby get legal rights in the United States?" If he cannot answer that question, he should not be president. Read the transcript if you missed it. McCain said at conception, Obama basically spit in the face of Rick Warren and said, and said I refuse to answer your question because it will hurt me politically.
It should be no surprise to anyone, because he supports the rights of doctors to kill aborted babies that accidentally live through the procedure. He is more extreme than even NARAL on this issue.
Tit for tat on the home boys-Odumbo shouldn't go there!
Warren: "At what point does a baby get human rights in your view?"
Obama: "Well I think that whether you're looking at it from a theological perspective or a scientific perspective, answering that question with specificity...uh....you know is...uh....above my pay grade."
Above My Paygrade,
Don't argue with the left wing trolls about Abortion. The mirder of innocent life is okay with them.
Just remember, lot next door purchased by convicted felon, half the lost sold back to Obama at reduced price increasing value of ODUMBO'S house. PRICELESS!!!!
Oh comeone Shap don't you understand that only us who are elitists think that 30mil is higher than 146k??? :)
Man, I must try some arugula, I just don't feel elitist enough anymore.
On a serious note, anybody that pimps out their POW experience needs some help. How in the god's name can you bring yourself to make a propaganda about such a horrendous personal experience is beyond me?
Above my Paygrade,
Watch that damning statement resonate with millions of undecided voters across America.
Let me know when that happens.
Virginia Conservative said...
Heh, what a dumbass. Now no matter what he does it will be anti-climactic and buried in the weekend.
------------
Unless it's Clinton, Gore or Warner... then the delay just adds to the anticipation of something really big and rolls right into the DNC.
If it is not a big name, I agree that it has the risk of getting too little coverage. However, with the convention starting the pick will get more than enough coverage.
Delaying the pick until right before the convention can be debated as a good versus bad strategy. Then again, McCain is doing the same thing and on his birthday (his age will be discussed) and on the anniversay of Katrina. There are alot of photos about what McCain was doing that day... He was having cake with Bush... doh!
I am clearly not a new troll. I just decided to change off of Higglytown to my new name.
I am just tracking the spreading of the pundits and bloggers and seeing how far his comment goes. All of those are well and good. Are you putting quotes around it, because I am quoting Obama. If you do above my pay grade without the Obama quotes it goes in the millions. I am just looking for him being quoted as saying it.
JACK BALCK
loved you in Fung Fu Panda. thanks for the props, I usually [well almost always] stridently disagree with what you post - but it is nice when we can chat civilly on polling analysis.
anyway, partisanships aside I am glad that someone else is tracking those ECON/YouGov weekly polls.
After following them closely for the past 6-8 weeks I have found them by far the most illuminating & the best model for this point in national trends.
They do not push or tweak the dat, but let it speak for itself. The internal info each week is a treasure trove.
Why push voters into a camp as a 'leaner' ? what does that mean in August ? noise only. why push them off of OTHER candidates in Aug ? sure they may abandon them later, but let the data show us that trend when it happens. Undecided is the real key demo, as are the 'Not Voting" choice which ids actually where the #'s have moved over the summer, until they all went bback to UND.
Both parties can read in this ECON/YouGov polling what is really going on & do with it what they want. Plus they do not overplay the results which I find refreshing, don't you ?
Pollster makes it so easy to track & analyze through their site [which does have a tie-in if I recall]. But this poll gets little play which is sad, probably only because it is not as packaged for promos making it much harder to sell as a sound bite...
I just wish they would do battleground states weekly polling too ! then we would all know what each in-play state status really is & watch for real trends as they develop in September/October.
Jack Black,
I realize I'm not a left-wing troll, but for posterity's sake, seeing as that I've challenged you on this before:
I am personally morally opposed to abortion. However, I'm not sure how it's "compassionate" to argue that a girl or woman who does not want to bear responsibility for a child should be forced to bring it into this world. I don't posit that defense for the sake of the "mother", but for the sake of the child.
No child deserves to be consigned to a life his mother did not want him to have.
Paygrade-
Do you think that the POTUS should be the ultimate authority on matters of theology and science? That's a little weird, don't you think?
DCM in FL,
Thanks. The only thing about the poll is it appears to be done on the internet. Other than that, everybody can go to the poll and see the strengths and weakness of each candidate. It really is amazing.
Obama should go in front of one of McCain's home to announce his Veep pick. It'd be a twofer. The media would go nuts.
Pluckon:
Your observation about Obama's arrogant independence from the lcoal establishment confirms exactly what I said was likely to be the case when we started talking about the field offices some weeks ago. McC strategy of relying on local offices is ultimately much more productive and conducive to a coordinated effort.
Obama and his people think they know it alls. They really are a bunch of Stalinists at heart.
MARK,
I guess the best way to answer that question would be to ask you, Would you have liked to have been aborted?
Better yet, maybe ther is a person out there now who survvived an abortion and e can ask them if they care if there mommy really didn't want them.
But again, this is getting above my paygrade!
Roll the video tape:
===========================
WARREN: That was a freebie. That was a gimme. That was a gimme, OK? Now, let's deal with abortion; 40 million abortions since Roe v. Wade. As a pastor, I have to deal with this all of the time, all of the pain and all of the conflicts. I know this is a very complex issue. Forty million abortions, at what point does a baby get human rights, in your view?
OBAMA: Well, you know, I think that whether you're looking at it from a theological perspective or a scientific perspective, answering that question with specificity, you know, is above my pay grade.
WARREN: Have you --
OBAMA: But let me just speak more generally about the issue of abortion, because this is something obviously the country wrestles with. One thing that I'm absolutely convinced of is that there is a moral and ethical element to this issue. And so I think anybody who tries to deny the moral difficulties and gravity of the abortion issue, I think, is not paying attention. So that would be point number one.
But point number two, I am pro-choice. I believe in Roe v. Wade, and I come to that conclusion not because I'm pro-abortion, but because, ultimately, I don't think women make these decisions casually. I think they -- they wrestle with these things in profound ways, in consultation with their pastors or their spouses or their doctors or their family members. And so, for me, the goal right now should be -- and this is where I think we can find common ground. And by the way, I've now inserted this into the Democratic party platform, is how do we reduce the number of abortions? The fact is that although we have had a president who is opposed to abortion over the last eight years, abortions have not gone down and that is something we have to address.
==================================
A fetus can't have human rights before it is viable outside of the womb.
That goes for stem cells too. They may be human material, but they are not human.
Shap, I am not going to go through all of your examples, but for instance McCain + seven homes without quotes pickes up many million hits, because it picks up every occurence of the words McCain and seven and homes separately. If you go McCain with "seven homes" in quotes you get 4190 hits currently. Likely to go up if it takes off, but not approaching the increase in Obama with "above my pay grade" right now.
Try honestly doing the searches and see what numbers you get.
Do you think that the POTUS should be the ultimate authority on matters of theology and science? That's a little weird, don't you think?
Hello? Bush admistration?
Black Political Anal.
Perhaps McCain can go in front of ODUMBO's house and ask if there is a felon in Chicago who will buy him a lot and then sell it back at half price.
I am clearly not a new troll. I just decided to change off of Higglytown to my new name.
Ah... A sock-puppet.
What did Nate ban you for?
At this point, maybe they should wait until the convention to announce the VP. It sure would drive the ratings up for the Monday and Tuesday snoozefests.
Has the campaign actually confirmed that Obama's Saturday appearance will be with the VP?
JACK,
yes the mode is internet with a 4+/- MOE. But the control is well-modeled & the regularity, etc. makes the data valuable for what it is.
I have a higher degree of confidence in this model as opposed to totally random robo-calls that lose control & let cell-only & unlisted & blocked callers escape from the sample.
Willing respondents under controlled circumstances are better for tracking trends even if one were to try to argue with the accuracy of the final projection.
At this point, trends are what counts - too soon to try to nail the final result to .01% IMO
certainly much better than Zogby or Ipsos...
Mason, do I think a potential president should have to answer the question on when legal rights attached to a living being, whether in or out of the womb? Yes I do. It tells everything about him. Respect for life. What kind of judge he may appoint. His likely policies on health care and abortion. Its not a question of science or religion, Roe v. Wade tells us that. Its a legal question that must continually be answered by elected officials and judges.
dwbh-
Not that I've heard/seen. It's mostly been media-driven spec.
OK, I'm a bit late to post on this thread, but this looks like a red herring, not to mention like a bit of over-analysis by the media.
This is anecdotal, but try accessing:
obamabayh.com
obamabiden.com
obamasebelius.com
They all go to parked and reserved domains. Now try:
obamaclinton.com
Nothing... If Obama were going to choose Clinton for the VP position, wouldn't they have reserved the domain name?
Or possibly, I'm guilty of the same over-analysis I accuse everyone else of...
Jack Black,
My parents wanted to bring me into this world. They raised me very well. I almost always felt loved and cared for in their household.
So, in answer to your question, would I like to have been aborted, no.
If I'd been raised by a single, drug-addicted mother on the streets, the object of bitterness and anger, beaten and abused, exposed to inhuman cruelty, living in danger, learning to steal and lie and bully and cheat in order to survive, trusting no one, loving nothing, tormented and lonely and frightened and cold...
Let's just say I would wonder why.
John Sydney McCain:
Out of touch at home and reckless abroad.
Lather, rinse, repeat.
Was not banned, just got tired of Higglytown, you pseudo-intellectual math types never even acknowledged the Higglytown name for its value to the younger crowd. Figured I would go with something that would be relevant to the current format.
Seven Houses ad is goofy. Next thing you know Obama will be calling for the guillotine for the rich.
Michelle as Mde. Defarge. Can she knit?
At least none of the McCain homes were paid for with the help of a convicted felon!
Sigh. Abortion as a political issue needs to be discussed in much different terms than abortion as a moral issue. I don't know why I jump into this again and again, but I can't seem to help myself. If abortion were deemed murder the results would be catastrophic and I don't even need to recite the usual lines about back alley abortions to illustrate that point. First, if abortion were made illegal, all miscarriages would be subject to criminal investigation, wreaking untold havoc on the emotional well being of the families involved. Second, because abortions are premeditated, all violators would be prosecuted as first degree murders, in some cases, and most ironically, being subject to a potential death penalty.
Obviously there are many more points to be made, but those two sum up nicely why it is impractical and dangerous to make abortion illegal, even if you find it morally repugnant.
Above my Paygrade,
He answered those questions. He's pro-choice. He supports Roe v. Wade. He would probably appoint judges who share that position.
Now, you can disagree with him, you can argue that's not right, that he's wrong, but I think it's disingenuous to argue that he dodged the question or that he's a big scary question mark on social issues.
He's pro-choice, socially liberal, supports Roe v. Wade - what, exactly, is unclear about that?
Mark said:
"No child deserves to be consigned to a life his mother did not want him to have."
Are there any examples of accomlished people who were abandoned or unwanted by their mothers? I am not clever enuf to come up with any off hand, but I am betting there are amny.
That is not a sufficient reason to still a child's life. It is a small price to pay to bear a child to term rather than tear it asunder in the womb because that life is seen as inconvienient.
jack black:
Would you prefer to live a life where you were hungry, beaten, miserable, unloved, struggling every day with anger at the world for never giving you a chance, lashing out at others, and always clinging to life (suicide is a sin, so no easy way out!) when there seems no reason to continue?
Unwanted children suffer this injustice, physical and emotional abuse from unready and unfit parents. Not all of them can find salvation, and PeteKent stated that childhood traumas can contribute to problems in adulthood.
Or would you rather never know suffering and be accepted directly into the realm of heaven? Or Limbo, if you go by the divine comedy.
See, I thought that Christianity was all about choosing virtue over sin when it comes to salvation. So it puzzles me when Christians try to deny the god-given ability to exercise free will to women.
It seems morally hypocritical to second-guess God and Jesus. Also, it's government meddling in personal affairs, based on a failure to uphold a separated church and state.
So sure! I support murder of tiny souls, but I'm an atheist who feels that there is no need to cause undue suffering in this world.
Nate: I look forward to hearing you on To the point.
PeteKent,
I guess it just comes down to me believing that it's not the place of government to make decisions for its citizens. Which is, you know, a classic conservative principle.
Well, it's just past 5PM in the east, so I'm assuming that Obama isn't going to announce today unless he wants to miss the evening Nets news cycle. Mysterious to me, unless there's something going on behind the scenes that we don't know about. He's coming across as playing games. The 24/7 internet news cycle makes it harder to delay this announcement when there have been leaked (or imagined) lists coming out every day.
FWIW -
I thought that Obama was taking Nunn when he floated his name as his advisor @ Saddlebags...
but hear that Nunn is out of the country until Monday so unless he has a jet on standby that is a "I'm not the guy"...
Biden - "I'm not the guy" and I will take him for his word because IF he was then he would be more coy or let it slip...
Others, really who cares much unless it is Gore or Powell comes out at last...
However, today Hillary is campaigning as a surogate in FL making at least 3 stops in Tampa & Palm Beach & Broward [even though the tropical storm is still [pounding our asses here in Central FL - raining cats & dogs & frogs still]
But does the use of Hill in FL on the eve of the big announcement mean Team Obama is giving her a last second shot to prove she will help him seal the deal & campaign her hienie off with sincere enthusiasm if she gets the gig ?
maybe they will be doing focus groups & polling later tonight to decide if Clinton can move the UNDs & PUMAs in FL today toward Obama/Clinton ??? bet she is getting those Q's left & right today - anyone seeen her respond lately on this subject ?
so I for the moment put Hill back in the mix [maybe]
Obama/Gore or Obama/Clinton
or more likely Obama/_______ [field]
you knows, but it sure is dominating the blogs & cable news
By the by, Obama "above my pay grade" only gives me 15,000 results, not 147k or whatever it was you were saying.
Saying I am pro Roe v. Wade is extremely unclear. It does not take into account its progeny. It does not tell us whether States should be less restricted as they have been in the Bush years, or more restricted by the Feds in their legislation and enforcement. It doesnt tell us when you feel legal rights attach because as Obama knows, and any constitutional law student knows Roe v. Wade did not answer most relevant questions. Some have been answered by the progeny of Roe v. Wade, but there is still a lot of gray area out there where super liberal justices can take a Roe v. Wade and cram abortions on demand even to the point of the due date, with killing live born children down our throats as a protection against a woman's privacy.
Saying I am pro Roe v. Wade, or I am pro-choice is a big cop-out. Tell us based on your interpretation of Roe v. Wade and its progeny when legal rights attach, and where you will draw that line. If you cannot do that and want us to guess on your view of the sanctity of human life based on some nuanced espousing of belief in Roe v. Wade dont expect to be president. President is above your pay grade.
I won't lie: as a former HRC supporter, all of this talk has gotten my hopes up, and now I really want her to be picked.
I know it is a very longshot, but there is no doubt these articles/headlines have gotten to me.
Mason, do I think a potential president should have to answer the question on when legal rights attached to a living being, whether in or out of the womb? Yes I do. It tells everything about him.
He told you he's pro-choice. Are you surprised?
Respect for life. What kind of judge he may appoint. His likely policies on health care and abortion.
He said he's pro-choice, and pro stemcell. Are you surprised? Did you read the transcript?
Its not a question of science or religion, Roe v. Wade tells us that.
This is False. Roe v. Wade generates pushback almost wholy becuase of religion. Same with stem cell research.
Its [sic] a legal question that must continually be answered by elected officials and judges.
What? You want judges to answer "What is human?/When does life begin?" without considering the scientific or religious facts or ramifacations of the questions? Two words: Amicus Curiae.
Other Mark who is not me,
It's going to get really confusing to have one Mark posting who hates HRC and another one posting who thinks she's the bee's knees.
Go Schweitzer.
That Economist poll shows the same age gap that Hoosier has been pointing out on these threads. McCain's age and the Democrats targeting it may be hurting Obama among older voters.
The Obama campaign should soon begin to target McCain's proposals for privatizing social security. The "Lock Box" theme was Al Gore's best issue and almost allowed him to recover in 2000 with an advantage among voters over 55. Or, maybe BO should wait for another "senior moment" from JM like "7 Houses" to roll out this theme.
MARK re: HRC
Clinton campaigns in S. Florida for Obama
ASSOCIATED PRESS August 21, 2008
BOCA RATON - Sen. Hillary Clinton will visit the Sunshine State again, this time campaigning for Sen. Barack Obama.
Clinton's first stop Thursday will be in Tampa where she'll meet with officials from the Sheet Metal Workers International Association. She'll later host a rally for Obama in Palm Beach County convincing female voters that Obama cares about issues important to them. She will also hold an event for seniors in Broward County.
Campaigning for Obama with: unions, females & seniors in FL on the eve of the selection announcement.
Coincidence or more ? Keep your hopes alive !
To say that when legal rights attach to a person is not a legal question is crazy Mason. Its the call the president constantly has to make regarding abortion, immigration, prisoners of war, other "detainees," death row inmates, released convicts. What and when a person gets legal rights is a cornerstone of our jurisprudence. Just not for obama, its above his paygrade.
But, Mark, the gvt makes decisions for its citizens all the time.
We should respect the natural law and God's creation. It is a matter of faith and philosophy. I hope for a world where no one any more would countenance the abortion of a child, a human being with independent genetics and DNA, than they would the drowning or electrocution of a puppy.
I love dogs, don’t get me wrong, but there was more outrage over the conduct of Michael Vick than the holocaust that takes place in the sacred vessel of life that is the womb, and that to me is disturbing.
That this abomination is not universally derided and that it can be defended so blithely and its opponents scorned so easily is proof to me that there is indeed evil in the world.
Per JRS: "That Economist poll shows the same age gap that Hoosier has been pointing out on these threads. McCain's age and the Democrats targeting it may be hurting Obama among older voters."
I have been saying for weeks that all this McCoot stuff is going to backfire. Now y'all better back off.
And get the hell offa my lawn, you kids!
come on people.
this is NOT a forum for debating abortion.
even though Nate used "whoring" in the title of this thread post...
still, back to basics please.
political [not moral] analysis
*Waives hand* Hello?
Yes, abortion is a legal issue, and it is a moral issue, but the two discussions are not necessarily interconnected. Again, no matter ho immoral you may think it is to abort a fetus, it would be foolish to make abortion illegal for the reasons I mentioned above.
That's great that you guys think it's evil and stuff, but that does not refute my point. I'm willing to concede that it might be feasible to restrict abortion rights more than they are currently might be feasible, but it will never be a good idea to categorically ban it.
Open thread here. We can discuss what we like. We don't need the Stalinist mind police telling us what we can and cannot say.
If the topic of abortion makes your squirm -- GOOD!
One explanation for the delay that might make sense is that he picked one person in Hawaii, came back from vacation, and either realized or was made to realize by Axelrod or someone else that the terrain had shifted and he would be better off making another selection. This would make sense if the Hawaii pick was someone who filled in the resume gap, but wouldn't put a swing state in play; i.e., someone like Biden or Clark. Now they might be looking more at the electoral math, in which case Kaine would look better.
Per JRS: "That Economist poll shows the same age gap that Hoosier has been pointing out on these threads. McCain's age and the Democrats targeting it may be hurting Obama among older voters."
the key word is "may".
at least JRS had the courtesy to post it as an IMO analysis. at least it is on topic...
but McCain's #'s are also falling so in fact it 'may' be working ?
the data can be argued either way at this point, but most likely a consistent meme can have the deired result in the end game even if it lokks like it is not working in the short run.
same goes with the experience meme - working or backfire beyond a point ? or the patriotism thing...
but that is what makes the ECON poll internals fascinating to dig through. let's all watch that trend though over the next 2 months.
Fellow Mark: I would be very happy with Schweitzter. He's awesome, and definitely the real deal. Though, I am not expecting it either.
You know, AMPG, I was going to point out how Sen BHO explained more or less exactly how he felt about abortion and that it was not a cop-out, but he's far more eloquent than I. Suffice to say, you're hanging on four words out of four-hunderd, and it's unbecoming of you.
==========================
WARREN: That was a freebie. That was a gimme. That was a gimme, OK? Now, let's deal with abortion; 40 million abortions since Roe v. Wade. As a pastor, I have to deal with this all of the time, all of the pain and all of the conflicts. I know this is a very complex issue. Forty million abortions, at what point does a baby get human rights, in your view?
OBAMA: Well, you know, I think that whether you're looking at it from a theological perspective or a scientific perspective, answering that question with specificity, you know, is above my pay grade.
WARREN: Have you --
OBAMA: But let me just speak more generally about the issue of abortion, because this is something obviously the country wrestles with. One thing that I'm absolutely convinced of is that there is a moral and ethical element to this issue. And so I think anybody who tries to deny the moral difficulties and gravity of the abortion issue, I think, is not paying attention. So that would be point number one.
But point number two, I am pro-choice. I believe in Roe v. Wade, and I come to that conclusion not because I'm pro-abortion, but because, ultimately, I don't think women make these decisions casually. I think they -- they wrestle with these things in profound ways, in consultation with their pastors or their spouses or their doctors or their family members. And so, for me, the goal right now should be -- and this is where I think we can find common ground. And by the way, I've now inserted this into the Democratic party platform, is how do we reduce the number of abortions? The fact is that although we have had a president who is opposed to abortion over the last eight years, abortions have not gone down and that is something we have to address.
WARREN: Have you ever voted to limit or reduce abortions?
OBAMA: I am in favor, for example, of limits on late-term abortions, if there is an exception for the mother's health. From the perspective of those who are pro-life, I think they would consider that inadequate, and I respect their views. One of the things that I've always said is that on this particular issue, if you believe that life begins at conception, then -- and you are consistent in that belief, then I can't argue with you on that, because that is a core issue of faith for you.
What I can do is say, are there ways that we can work together to reduce the number of unwanted pregnancies, so that we actually are reducing the sense that women are seeking out abortions. And as an example of that, one of the things that I've talked about is how do we provide the resources that allow women to make the choice to keep a child. You know, have we given them the health care that they need? Have we given them the support services that they need? Have we given them the options of adoption that are necessary? That can make a genuine difference.
PETE the PARROT,
no, it is your unsufferable moralizing as the SIN police that makes us all sick & sad.
is it true that Cindy Mac lied about Mother Teresa ? not that is just pathetic pandering, no ?
immoral...
AMPG-
Read more carefully. I didn't say it's not a legal question.
Remember everyone Roe v. Wade made abortion a legal decision that judges must decide. Prior to Roe v. Wade states could make their own rules and laws regarding abortion based on the needs and desires of each state's citizens. Some comepletely outlawed abortion, some allowed it on demand at any medical center with the state paying for it.
It is only since Roe v. Wade that it is all uniform. Areas that were comepletely free of regulation now regulate heavily. Areas where abortion was outlawed, now regulate as heavy as they possibly can, being constantly taken to court to test their laws.
Roe v. Wade and its progeny told doctors, beware the Federal Courts will now decide if your behavior is legal or illegal. We will use a vague viability standard, (by the way that is the current approach, no trimester approach right now in the Federal cases). So if the baby could be viable and survive outside the womb the States can legislate against it, if the baby is not viable and cannot survive the states cannot.
Of course with exceptions for health and safety of mother, which are constantly being litigated now. Doctors have done abortions late term for health and safety, because having a baby would be psychologically damaging because she did not want to raise the child. If this is allowed we are back to abortion on demand.
Q:
At the present stage of moral development in society I take your point as valid one.
Much more education and personal improvement will be needed before we can ban abortion, just as we banned dueling.
You will agree, however, that promoting passage of a law that does not restrict Roe v Wade that mandates that medical care be given to a child born alive from a botched abortion is not too much to ask from a civilized society.
To his discredit, Sen. Obama does not.
This, much more than seven houses will tell the tale of this election. Not so much b/c people care that much about abortion -- the culture of death is too far advanced in this country right now -- but it does show that he is a fringe extremist who is not in step with societal norms. Remember he is the pal of an unrepentant terrorist and went to a church that preached Black liberation theology for 20 years. He brought his impressionable children there to hear venom preached about the country that he now wants to lead.
I don’t think so.
The next question asked, "Have you ever voted to enforce limits on abortion?" Never answered again spit in the face of the host, and go on with the drivel about reducing abortions. He couldnt name anything he was doing to reduce abortions.
If 1-2 on the list isn't A-Rod and Albert Pujols (or vice versa), then your baseball analysis will start being called into question. And I might have to just start calling you a wanker, which I see other posters have borrowed my tagline. How funny!
Re: Cindy Mac
not her drug stealing & abuse this time, but the woman has a reality problem...
"The latest embellishments come from the McCain camp. Cindy McCain has repeatedly referred to herself as an "only child." This week came news that she actually has two half sisters, although apparently she had very little contact with them.
The McCain campaign had also put out the story that Mother Teresa "convinced" Cindy to bring home two orphans from Bangladesh in 1991."
no wonder John 'borrowed' the 'cross in the dirt' story from a real hero...
should read: "keep" calling you a wanker
oops, this part of the post dropped off re: Cindy & reality:
"Mrs. McCain, it turns out, never met Mother Teresa. (Once contacted by the Monitor, the campaign revised the story on its website.)"
DCM:
Cindy McCain brought a child home to this country, a black child, to love and care for as her own and her husband, our next president embraced that hapless infant as his daughter. I don't know what else there is to say about it.
I like dthat bit about the "maY' and McC's number's falling. Extrapolating a bit much aren't we? The only numbers that have fallen are Obama's and my estimation of your IQ!
Mule:
A Rod and Pujols? Not this year.
maybe Josh Hamilton . . .
no PETE,
wrong as usual.
Mac's #'s also fell again in the ECON poll - same amount as Obama's.
research before you type...
Why do so many of you MC people think that this election will turn on abortion? However strongly to feel about this issue, you must know that you are in a very tiny minority.
Time Poll conducted by Abt SRBI. July 31-Aug. 4, 2008. N=808 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.
"Which of these positions best represents your views about abortion? A woman should be able to get an abortion if she wants one in the first three months of pregnancy, no matter what the reason. Abortion should be legal ONLY in certain circumstances, such as when a woman's health is endangered or when the pregnancy results from rape or incest. Abortion should be illegal in all circumstances, even if the mother's life is in danger."
Always Legal in First 3 Months 46%
Legal in Certain Circumstances 40 Illegal in All Circumstances 10
No Answer/Unsure 4
"What if a presidential candidate took a position on abortion that was different from your own? Would you still consider voting for him because of his position on other issues, or would you not vote for him under any circumstances?"
Still Consider Not Vote For NA
7/31 - 8/4/08 73% 20 6
6/18-25/08 71% 23 5
PETE -
Cindy did a nice thing with that adoption [over John's objections at the time].
Why did she do it ? for the same reason that she did drugs - because he was emotionally abusive to her & basically abandoned his marriage. So instead of a dog, she got another kid w/o his mutual approval.
Sounds like something was/is off in that marriage, no ? McCain is a tool & not religious at all BTW [agents of intolerance is what he really believes you know - that includes YOU]
Did you see how McCain treated the dogs in the TV interview recently when Cindy tried to make him appear likeable ? He showed he HATES her dogs... a guy who hates dogs is not trustworthy IMO
It is only since Roe v. Wade that it is all uniform. Areas that were comepletely free of regulation now regulate heavily. Areas where abortion was outlawed, now regulate as heavy as they possibly can, being constantly taken to court to test their laws.
Uniform? Really?
Roe v. Wade and its progeny told doctors, beware the Federal Courts will now decide if your behavior is legal or illegal. We will use a vague viability standard, (by the way that is the current approach, no trimester approach right now in the Federal cases). So if the baby could be viable and survive outside the womb the States can legislate against it, if the baby is not viable and cannot survive the states cannot.
Uh... Viablity isn't vauge at all. Deliveries prior to 20 weeks aren't called births. Their called miscarriages or spontaneous abortions. Also, no one forces doctors to perform abortions. Most of them have a choice in their practice.
Of course with exceptions for health and safety of mother, which are constantly being litigated now. Doctors have done abortions late term for health and safety, because having a baby would be psychologically damaging because she did not want to raise the child. If this is allowed we are back to abortion on demand.
But I thought we had uniform standards now. That should lead to less litigation? Right. You're internally inconsistient, but you right in this case. You may as well give up, because only a ban w/o exception will ever make you happy, and that's never, ever, going to happen.
Looks like the "Seven" ad backfired.
McCain is now making ads with Rezko, Wright, and Michelle Obama.
He said everything is fair game now.
BIG mistake!
This has to be a record. We're in late August and the campaigns are at DEFCON 2.
Oh, you anti-choice zealots are truly, truly sad. Somehow, the debate on your side always gets twisted into accusations of "murder" - - which, of course, is because the idea of empowering women truly terrifies you. It's therefore helpful to reframe the debate in some other way that fires slings and arrows at pro-choice advocates. And you are in a very vocal, very scary, minority - - and your position cannot be reconciled with the traditional "anti-big-government" plank of the platform of the phony political philosophy that is modern day "conservatism".
Razzy reports that NM remains strong for Obama. Even Scott is having trouble cooking those numbers. Better put NM out of reach for Seven (Or More? I'll Have My Staff Get Back to You) Houses Johnny. FL and NV - - in play, baby!
The next question asked, "Have you ever voted to enforce limits on abortion?" Never answered again spit in the face of the host, and go on with the drivel about reducing abortions. He couldnt name anything he was doing to reduce abortions.
Read. More. Carefully. I even bolded it for you. If you're not going to grant that he said, "I am in favor, for example, of limits on late term abortions, if there is an exception for the mother's health," then I will not continue this discussion with you because you are incapable of basic comprehension.
Sorry to break up the abortion debate... it is truly riveting /snark
But...
Did anyone see today that Condi Rice and the Iraqi foreign misnister announced that a TIMETABLE will be set for withdrawal.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/iraq/2008-08-21-rice-meeting_N.htm?csp=34
Now, whose idea was that? hmmmmmm.
Is Bush trying to lose the war? I don't get it. Maybe one of the Mac trolls can help me out.
KEATING 5 & 100 years in IRAQ & restart the draft & "SS is a disgrace" & Bush, BUSH, BUSH + Cheney & lobbyist [did he have an affair with that one ?] - these will all help McCain though...
expect to see these in your face soon - probably during the GOPer convention !
VC-
See... The problem with Wright is that the GOP blew their wad on that one back in February and everyone knows about it already.
Ayres isn't scary looking.
And touching Michelle? Look out, Cindy. (And don't tell me that the house thing is going after Cindy. Rich people have multiple homes. We get that. Rich people forget how many homes they own? WTF?)
Virginia Conservative said...
Looks like the "Seven" ad backfired.
McCain is now making ads with Rezko, Wright, and Michelle Obama.
He said everything is fair game now.
BIG mistake!
This has to be a record. We're in late August and the campaigns are at DEFCON 2.
---------------
LOL... We're scared.
All of this stuff was brought up in the primaries and didn't stick (except for Wright, which is coming anyway).
The media takes a collective nap... been there, done that.
Rezko Mason, Rezko.
He helped Obama buy his mansion. How stupid was it to bring up houses when a convicted felon helped Obama buy his?
well they are trying to bury the TIMETABLE story while the Olympics are wrapping up.
Bush the PeaceMaker...
Realist-
Yeah. [voice="Paris Hilton"] That was hot. [/voice]
"Pander:
*overcompensating about how much he cares about black people*"
-Pete Kent
Pete: I was just trolling you. I felt that after all you do and the "just for fun" aspect of it, it was well-deserved. I honestly don't harbor that much against you. If you delve too much into using your values as the barometer for how the nation thinks, I just skip your post, just as I skip almost everything from jackblack or the other random republitrolls. You and VA Con are pretty good reads most of the time though (VA Con moreso than you).
So yeah. I was mostly just messing with you, playing the race card to boot. Go me.
My favorite player is probably Frank Thomas. Not the best player to be certain, but I think his power and mere presence at the plate was one of those intangible things non-statheads love to talk about. The Big Hurt. I model my own stance after his, standing tall in the box until I move down for the swing. He was just fun to watch hit growing up. Plus, I always thought he was misunderstood regarding his attitude. He was far too introverted for the taste of the media, and they would malign him as 'sullen' as a result. I always pulled for him.
I agree with Rollins. I hate to pull a Joe Morgan here and say "I can't say I've watched him play that much", but I'm an AL Central guy, I don't see the Phils too much. What I have seen (especially through stat sheets, as I've had him on my fantasy team several times over the past few years) is pretty impressive pop and speed from SS. I don't think he deserved the MVP, but he definitely was top 5 last year.
Blacks leaving baseball: Agreed. It's both cultural and economic. Bats, gloves, balls, fields...way too expensive for many urban environments compared to some steel, wood, and iron.
Milledge: I never got the hype. Maybe it's just cause I'm from the Sox, where we have some potential 5-tool minor league outfielder every year who eventually shows himself to be a 2 1/2 tool player AAAA when given bigs time. See: Jeremy Reed in Seattle. A space-filler with nice defense and a few sparks of offense every once in a while. But not a star.
Omar Minaya: Honestly? Yeah he brought in Latin players, but he's not special in that regard. Kenny Williams has worked with an incredible amount of Latinos, Magglio Ordonez, Freddy Garcia, Jose Contreras, Jose Valentin, Juan Uribe, Orlando Hernandez, Alexei Ramirez, Carlos Quentin, Pablo Ozuna, Timo Perez, the first Latino World Series winning coach...the list goes on.
To Omar's credit, he's been one of the most aggressive GMs in the market over the past few years. He's not been afraid to pull triggers to bring in brand name talent, but like this Yankees of recent years, this hasn't proven to solve the randomness that sometimes afflicts the playoffs. No WS rings for him yet, and with their current pitching I don't see one this year either. Good core with Wright/Reyes though, those are two absolutely insane talents to have locked up for a while.
I sort of agree with Phillips. However, lately I've damn near benched him in favor of Alexei Ramirez. I love it when being a homer actually pays off. I have Q, Dye, Swish, and Alexei all hitting on all cylinders right now on my fantasy team.
Regarding HRC:
I don't think right now is critical. I agree, the poll saying nearly 50% of her supporters don't support Obama is bad news for Obama, even though that is only 9 million people, huge in the primaries but less so in the general.
I'm not stupid, I'm not saying 9 million is ignorable, I'm just saying that is the hardcore, generally higher-info primary voter crowd who passionately care about Hill. The average voter? Much less concerned about how many times Obama puffs her pillow before singing a lullaby and preparing warm milk for her before she deigns to go to sleep. His pandering (crap, I hate using my name as a verb) isn't crucial on a day to day basis, and neither is his denunciation of her as his VP.
The time to do that is the convention, really, in HER OWN speech. If she gets up there and gives a "Listen people, there are some of you who wanted me to win, and I thank you for your support. But let's be realistic. The policies I would fight for in Washington are almost identical to the policies Senator Obama would fight for in Washington. The dedication I put forward would be met or exceeded by him. 18 million of you voted because you thought you were voting for what was best for this nation, and now I implore you to do the same thing again. Vote for who you think will best serve this nation."
Then go on to compare McCain to Bush, and then praise Obama. Continue on a while, and create an atmosphere of "Hey, I lost, but our nation hasn't, not yet. Vote for Obama, and I will not have lost in vain." If she can move those 9 million non-Obama votes (the ones who aren't die-hard racists or Rush-o-crats anyway) back to the democratic fold without reservations, the bump will be high and damn near sustained.
It could be a game-changer.
It all depends on her speech, really. More than Bill's, more than the VP's, more than Obama's own really. If there are 9 million people out there who say they like her so much more than Obama that they would instead vote for McCain, Nader, Barr, or not at all, then at this point it is only her who can move them. I'm not even saying she CAN, but if anyone can, she is the one.
If she doesn't? If her speech resembles the Texas/Ohio/PA/IN/NC stumps instead of the Unity and more recent efforts? It kinda gives me chills. It could be powerful.
Either way though? She's not going to be VP. I wouldn't even mind it all that much, but it's absolutely clear that she does not fit what Obama has said he's looking for.
My money's still on Sebellius or Schweitzer. Schweitzer more and more. I'd buy him up on Intrade immediately if I gambled.
Wow, the republicans certainly have taken over the comment sections on many of these news sites. I read many sites and I am seeing more and more republicans blasting BS on liberal websites. Go back to FOX and blast there.
My Two cents on: McCain vs. Obama
*Old vs. Young
*Racist/bigot generation vs. color-blind generation
*Popularity vs. Intelligence
*Good old boys club vs. A New World Leader
*Forgetful vs. Forgiving
*Jerk Politics vs. Politics that lives above the fray
*Power and money vs. Grassroots and kindness towards all man
*Hideous vs. handsome
*Interest in resume vs. Interest in Americans
*Wealthy vs. the meek and humble
*White vs. minorities
*Status Quo vs. No more earmarks
*Fake vs. real
*BS vs. Truth
*One liner guy vs. intelligent thought leader
Republicans of my Dad's generation: Freakin' die already. Haven't you screwed up your children’s future enough? Haven't you pushed your bills on our shoulders enough? Haven't you robbed our children of quality schools and education enough? Haven't you raped the future of this country enough? Haven’t you created enough loop holes for the whole good-ole-boys club to hang yet? Oh yeah, that’s right, Your generation just wants to make sure that Social Security is there for your dumb a$$es, right? I feel sorry for your generation when the tipping point occurs. If the tipping point is not this election year, then maybe the next presidential election year…
It’s funny to think that at one point in time, I actually thought McCain was a good guy. But then I saw the Bush-Rove machine corrupt him forever. McCain sold his soul to the devil. When McCain lost the 2000 election to Bush, he inked the deal with satin. If McCain does get elected, I am sure he will keel over of a heart attack or something within hours of being officially elected. The devil will claim his soul in exchange for that brief 5 minutes when he is officially the president.
The fact is, your generation is just as bad if not worse than the Rev Wright, or Haggie. Look in the mirror. You sit on your high horse, with cash in your pocket while you run over the little guy. You wear your religion on your sleeve as you schedule a date with your mistress. You call for one-man-one-woman marriage when you have been married 3 times over. If you were so worried about marriage, why wouldn't you fix the laws around getting married to your sister? Why wouldn't you put a penalty sin tax on divorcees’? Why wouldn't you prevent unwanted pregnancy instead of preventing the abortion?
Spin masters. That's all you republicans are. Circle jerk on your own republican web sites…
VC- You're distorting and you know it. Random House helped him buy his mansion.
Rezko sold a bit of land at market value so that BHO could have a bigger yard.
Obama has a Mansion ?
not quite, although due to Chicago RE prices it is worth alot.
McCain has a RANCH [sounds like BUSH] plus lux condos all over the country - especially the multi-million dollar one in Coronado, CA.
actually Cindy bought 2 by the beach in San Diego so the kids can have their own...
plus the tax thing & "how many homes do you own" - I'll have them get back to you on that, really ?
OK, but he is not rich & out-of-touch ? hhhmmm
Actually... it was above market value. Had to be because it made the undeveloped Rezko land less attractive for development.
It's all in tony Rezko's WP article. Every sentence is cited.
PeteKent,
I'll give you A-Rod's had a slightly down year, but he's still a best. And Pujols leads MLB in OPS. That's still the best barometer for (offensive) dominance. Josh Hamilton is a top 5 now for sure though.
Mark,
I told myself I wouldn't but I had to comment on this quote from above: "guess it just comes down to me believing that it's not the place of government to make decisions for its citizens. Which is, you know, a classic conservative principle."
Riiiiight. And which party's principle champions Social Security, which makes the decision for some citizens to use 6.2% of their income (to $103,000) to fund a program for the government to make retirement decisions for all citizens and wants to dig that hole even deeper?
Let people choose to do with their own body (and a budding life inside) but not with their own money? That about right?
VC,
You wouldn't know about the Rezko deal if it hit you in the ass brother. It has nothing to do with Rezko helping Obama buy his house, it has to do with the sale of the lot adjacent to Obama's. Which Obama bought at market value. Go look through the archives of Chicago Tribune for the investigation.
Although all this talk about Rezko gives me warm fuzzies about the good old days of Chicago politics.
Speaking of Paris,
I am amazed that Hilton has not put out a response video yet to the Saddleback 'interviews'.
Maybe comparing her views to Nicole Richie or someone else.
Seems like an easy target with the 'cone of silence' stuff & she could rebut both of their answers.
from her pool or anywhere except in a church... I would rather watch her than that staged, scripted, faux event. That would be 'hot'
"Rezko Mason, Rezko.
He helped Obama buy his mansion. How stupid was it to bring up houses when a convicted felon helped Obama buy his?"
-Virginia Conservative
The Rezko story was trotted out against Obama numerous times in the primary, and it just wouldn't stick for long. Initially it was problematic, but he went full mea culpa, open disclosure, and was shown to be completely innocent of wrong-doing.
It also doesn't fit in with McCain's recent "anti-patriotic" narrative. It'd be another message they try to attack Obama on, which tends to dilute things. They were strongest when focusing ONLY on energy and celebrity, oddly enough. Before that, when they were jumping around everywhere, it just failed.
Meanwhile, Obama's suddenly got a new attack narrative: McCain as an out-of-touch multi-millionare. And when I say new, it's because the public generally hasn't been fed it by the MSM. If the MSM truly latches on, the ads keep playing, and talk keeps going on, it'll be saturating just as the conventions are ongoing, and suddenly the Republicans are doing spin and damage DURING THEIR OWN CONVENTION, rather than celebrations and attacks.
If this McCain as rich old guy meme sticks? I don't see his polls EVER keeping above 45-46, excluding outliers. If Obama has been playing rope-a-dope, and now launches a contiuous jarring offense, it will be the grand finale of quite possibly the best presidential campaign ever.
With the caveat, of course, of "if it works."
regarding A-Rod, should read: "he's still one of the best."
RCP doesn´t put the ARG poll in Florida.
1. I think Obama's seven houses attack works on 2 levels -- JM's rich and out-of-touch; and senile memory loss.
2. Michelle is now fair game for attack ads because at Saddleback Barack said she'd be the top person he'd consult in the White House when seeking wise advice. An invitation to the 527s to go after the amazonian affirmative action ingrate.
Uh, JulieinSeattle, you think this site's here for cheerleading? This isn't a DailyKos subsidiary, you know.
Nate's making a dammed good attempt at legit statistical analysis here, and the issues at hand are inputs to the polling factors, regardless of his political leanings.
As for your own hateful rhetoric, please reconsider. Life's too short to go through being mad at adults.
People don't hate *wealth*. They hate elitists who don't share their values.
Dear Barack Obama:
The best time to announce your veep would be....
NOW, DAMMIT!!!! NOW NOW NOW NOW NOW!!!!
Please wait while I check CNN, and Yahoo.
.....
I will be sending you the bill for the dents in my desk shortly.
Yours,
Matthew H
Mr. Insight-
2. Michelle is now fair game for attack ads because at Saddleback Barack said she'd be the top person he'd consult in the White House when seeking wise advice. An invitation to the 527s to go after the amazonian affirmative action ingrate.
It may have been an invitation, but they were going to crash that party anyway. Look at Bill Clinton's first campaign. Besides, if he hadn't said, "My wife," he'd probably be getting lit up for that, too. What politician in that situation wouldn't point to the Spouse as someone who infuences them?
VC-
Nope... They hate elitists who can't remember their own wealth. Or else they feel sorry for them because they're losing their minds.
;)
Good luck with this line of attack. Personally I think all you've done is open up a whole new can of worms on Obama, but we'll see.
Does anyone really believe that McCain is now going to run a commercial that he would've refused to run before the '7 homes' ad? He hasn't pulled punches before, why would he have started?
This sounds a lot like the kid who refuses to offer his friend candy. His friend calls him a jerk, and then the first kid says, "I would've given you candy, but you called me a jerk, so now you won't get any!"
Which is to say: McCain is a preschooler.
People hate elitists who don't share their own values, eh? ROTFL. Actually, people probably really hate people so "frickin" (to borrow one of the McClone flacks' eloquent words used today) out of touch that they can't remember how many houses they have.
Ohmigosh, the McCone camp is in full meltdown panic mode, as are (no surprise) the McTrolls here. Fun to watch. I'd be worried too, mostly about that result in Florida, and yesterday's North Carolina poll, and the discrediting of the ridiculous Razzy outlier in Minnesota, and yesterday's North Carolina poll. It sure is helpful when people other than Gooper hacks do state polls, isn't it?
PANIC! PANIC! Hehe.
P.S., Julie, great post. We all wish more women would post here. Pete Kent and Jack Black get lonely.
Playing up the McCain houses angle really only resonates with the class-envy types, who are already on board with the Obama camp already.
McCain can do a litlte ju-jitsu on this, not only playing tit-for-tat with the Rezko stuff, but also acknowledging his wife's wealth, the fact that it isn't all his (and hence his uncertain answer).
Playing humble on that front will engender trust that he's not going to be out to make a ton of money at the government trough, as so many politicians of both parties have been prone to do.
Circles right back to the maverick image.
" Playing up the McCain houses angle really only resonates with the class-envy types, who are already on board with the Obama camp already."
Exactly. Americans don't like class warfare.
Whoops! Sorry - - one of those North Carolina shoutouts was supposed to be a recognition of today's Nevada poll showing Obama up one among LVs. My bad; when I post at House #9 (out of how many, I'll get back to you), I forget things. It's so comfy here.
Exactly. Americans don't like class warfare.
Lol. Thanks, Jonah Goldberg.
But really, you're wrong.
Yeah, they love class warfare.
Thats why they elect millionaires.
Yawn. Try again, Naomi Klein.
McCain can do a litlte ju-jitsu on this, not only playing tit-for-tat with the Rezko stuff, but also acknowledging his wife's wealth, the fact that it isn't all his (and hence his uncertain answer).
This would sure lock up the pro-sugar-mama vote.
Virginia Conservative said...
Good luck with this line of attack. Personally I think all you've done is open up a whole new can of worms on Obama, but we'll see.
---------------
Sounds like an OLD can of worms to me. To quote Obama about the celebrity digs: "Is that all you got?"
Timetable for Iraq... this will be a theme for tomorrow. The Bush administration finally succumbed to Obama's superior judgement.
realistxx-
They're going to bring up the fact Obama helped organize and attend the Million Man March. Wait for it.
Americans don't like class warfare. Hmm. Interesting.
So is that why the Republican brand, built almost exclusively on class warfare, is completely toxic these days? It does make good sense.
P.S., I guess Rick Warren is one of those class-warfaring-jerks, since he asked the "rich" question, which JohnnyMac promptly, uh, whiffed on (to come back to baseball) with his HILARIOUS $5 million joke.
You're right. Americans hate that stuff.
Yawn. Try again, Naomi Klein.
Aw. So cute. Only you've never read Klein, since her concern with class warfare is only ancillary. You really should've gone with Thomas Frank or Joe Bageant, who are very concerned with class warefare in the United States.
But here's an idea: Learn about the history of the USA before saying asinine things that make you look like a total ass. What are you anyway? Some wealthy lapdog? Hoping that if you kiss McCain's ass he'll give you one of his seven homes?
"
So is that why the Republican brand, built almost exclusively on class warfare, is completely toxic these days? It does make good sense."
No, dipshit. Try again. Republicans don't engage in class warfare. They engage in culture war. Do you know the difference?
Thats why they elect millionaires.
Yawn. Try again, Naomi Klein.
Heh. Go fish. I'm sure there's an indicator of their wealth somewhere out on the internets. My congressmen have always been farmers, mill-workers, or constiutional ignored.
http://www.gpoaccess.gov/cdirectory/browse-cd-07.html
Here's Jonah's post today, which you're basically just plagiarizing:
The remaining nominally conservative old guard has no real presence in the culture save perhaps as clichés in novels, TV shows and, of course, in the liberal press. So when liberal politicians attack “the rich” as culturally alien, it really doesn’t work the way they think it should. Which rich? The Kennedys? The Kerrys? George Soros? Warren Buffet? Hollywood producers and directors? Manhattanites?
Marxists may think that “the rich” are a single class who act cohesively and in concert to protect their interests, but Marxists are wrong and Americans don’t think like Marxists.
Indeed, what I reject and what I think McCain should reject, is the idea that more socialized medicine, more anti-growth policies and more protectionism make Obama better for the middle class. Maybe McCain is out of touch, but so is Obama who’s bitterly clinging to ideas he formed in leftwing academic environments. The question is who is right, and I think McCain can win that argument.
But yeah, I can't see how protectionism or healthcare could possibly help the middle class!! THAT'S CRAZY!
I really think Obama's having trouble making up his mind on VP, and has himself stuck in a decision loop. He's probably made up his mind two or three times, and keeps changing it.
The fact that he's let this whole week go by and still hasn't told the winner indicates he might not have decided for sure even yet.
Now, the hoi polloi are expecting something special, and if he comes in with one of the pedestrian choices after all this teeth-gnashing, the indecisiveness storyline is going to be unavoidable.
Rudy,
Waiting for the pick as a potential negative is a reach, especially if the pick turns out to be a surprise.
Compare this to:
Forgetting how many homes you own.
Agreeing with a voter on reinstating the draft.
Rice agreeing to set a TIMETABLE for Iraq withdrawal.
Tie these and other McCain issues with Obama's new attack posture, the DNC and the prevailing macro trends and the Mac camp must be nervous. Their desperation is palpable through their empty threats about now going really negative and everything is fair game. Like that wasn't their strategy already LOL!
"Dipshit" - - LOL. Oh, man, when McClone reminds everyone, particularly the trolls here, what a terrible candidate he is, the temperature really rises. Good riposte!
"Class warfare," as you well know, unless you're very uninformed, is a term originally coined by Democrats to describe divisive, economically segregationist GOP policies on tax and spending. As far as I know, the Goopers remain in power by ensuring that they perpetuate their own financial base, yea verily though it means the ruination of the country's economy, both domestically and abroad. But that's not "class warfare?" Heh. Spare me. You can do better than that, troll.
BLOG, BLOG, BLOG
Senator Obama and his campaign staff should be very concerned about the recent poll numbers....or lack there of! As I have mentioned in previous blogs, ANY democratic candidate for President should be running 10-15% points ahead of his rePUGnican opponent, regardless of whom that opponent is. If ever there was a year the democratic candidate should waltz into the oval office, THIS is it! There is no excuse for the democratic candidate to be in a statistical tie--or worse yet--behind his opponent in the polls. It appears that some of Senator Obama's appeal is wearing thin/off. He has been on the defensive for weeks, depending his patriotism, defending his religious beliefs, defending his outspoken wife. Candidates DON'T win elections by being on the defensive. And, a less than stellar performance at the recent Saddlebrook Christian Forum, certainly hasn't helped matters.
It is a moot point, but it would be interesting to see what would happen at next week's democratic convention, if it was an "open" convention, and all delegates were free to support whomever they wished to. I wonder how many of the Super Delegates are having second thoughts about jumping on the Obama bandwagon?
I hope Senator Obama thinks LONG and HARD about whom he chooses as his running mate. And, I think it is fairly obvious that only one person fits the bill! Otherwise, the democrats will have once again "snatched defeat out of the hands of victory".
The wingnuts here do highlight one wrothwhile point, which is that Obama should quit trying to position himself as halfway between the pro-choicers and the pro-lifers. There isn't any middle ground on the issue, and Obama is pro-choice.
He should say so at every opportunity. And he should waste no opportunity to remind women that McCain wants to make abortion illegal and send woman who get them, and their doctors, to prison for it. One-third of women think McCain is pro-choice, and they should be disabused of the notion.
LAT and others, I hope you're right about Obama sticking to the seven houses thing. I think this ought to be an enduring campaign theme. Obama should hang that one around McCain's neck. It is an entry point to all kinds of attacks. Out of touch, rich Reepublican, senile old man, SECOND wife's money, her inherited wealth, beer heiress who sold Budweiser to the Europeans, you name it.
Dunno-Try to be nice(er)?
taimuri-
We're all out of concern trolls here, thanks. But I hear if you hang a left at Albuquerque, there might be a town in need.
Oh, Mason, I'm very nice indeed. But sometimes, ya have to hit back - - as Senator Obama is now doing. And quite effectively.
"McCain can do a litlte ju-jitsu on this, not only playing tit-for-tat with the Rezko stuff, but also acknowledging his wife's wealth, the fact that it isn't all his (and hence his uncertain answer)."
I wouldn't suggest that line of defense for McCain. That kind of makes it sound like his marriage is a bit dubious, if he barely even knows about some major properties that she owns in the their names. I can't imagine if my spouse had major assets that I was only vaguely aware of. I think it would make it seem like their marriage wasn't all that tight. I think he's just got to take his medicine on this one: say he momentarily forgot and try to just move on. It certainly isn't going to ruin him, but it might do some damage. The bigger problem would be if another gaffe reinforced the idea that he is rich and out of touch.
beer heiress who sold Budweiser to the Europeans, you name it.
I thought she was just a beer distributor heiress.
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