Up until now, I have been urging caution in (over)interpreting the results of the Gallup and Rasmussen tracking polls, which had shown the presidential race tightening to a near-tie in recent days. Although the tracking numbers are important sources of information, this trend had not really been reflected in much of the state polling, nor in other, one-off national polls.
Today, however, we have a set of state polling out that does indicate some tightening in the race:
The most interesting results are in Florida and Massachusetts. In Florida, SurveyUSA shows John McCain ahead by 6 points. The only other time it had polled Florida, back in late February, McCain had been ahead by 2. This result is driven in part by SurveyUSA's party identification figures; SurveyUSA does not adjust its results for partisan ID, and they drew a sample that gives the Republicans a 43-38 edge in party affiliation. The conventional wisdom is that party affiliation in Florida should be about evenly divided or somewhat tilted to the Democrats; nevertheless, there may be some softening in the Democrats' party ID edge nationwide, perhaps because of the improved situation on the ground in Iraq.
The Massachusetts poll from Suffolk is interesting mostly for the trendline; Obama leads by 9 points now after having led by 23 points in June. He experienced a particular decline among men: perhaps McCain's 'Celebrity' advertising campaign, which among other things seeks to emasculate Obama, has had more resonance with men than with women.
Apart from the state polls, there are now a couple of national polls that show McCain with a slight lead. One is the Rasmussen national tracker, which has McCain ahead 47-46, and the other is a new telephone survey from Zogby, which has McCain up 42-41.
Throwing everything together, we still see Obama with a national lead of about 2 points, but polling over the past 72 hours has indicated an even tighter race. Obama faces an interesting decision about whether to try and get out in front of the news cycle and create some drama of his own -- perhaps with a VP selection or some aggressive lines of attack against John McCain -- or to let the cycle play out organically, hoping that McCain's negative advertising will begin to backfire on him.
8.04.2008
Today's Polls, 8/4
@ 6:53 PM
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156 comments
what does this mean
McCain is gaining in liberal Massachusetts
Everywhere McCain is gaining so how come the national polls reflecting that is absurd or needs to be viewed with caution
I think the drop in the Democrats' ID edge is the energy issue.
I really think McCain is going to win this election going away, by 6-8%.
Today's tracking polls mean little. They polled friday, sat, and sunday when only the old people are at home to answer their phones. Despite this, Gallup has Obama up 46-43. Let's see how the next few days play out
re: Florida poll by SurveyUSA. It's the details that matter in analyzing the results. And that poll shows *way* too much African American support for McCain than in reality. There is simply no way McCain gets double-digits as SurveyUSA says. Which creates serious questions about the final percentages.
Of course, what *really* matters much more than any particular poll (despite uninformed and pathetic Republican comments to the contrary) is the electoral count tally. Which shows Obama with a *very* healthy lead throughout. Woo hoo!
This tightening is just another reason why Obama should NOT make a conventional wisdom VP choice like Bayh or (God forbid) Hillary. Schweitzer comes to mind. That would certainly dominate the media.
And remember, these are the summer dog days .. people are not paying much attention yet. We still have the VPs and conventions coming up. If they guys need to flip on certain issues or try out contraversial strategies (Paris hilton? Race card?), now is the time to do it. If it backfires, they can abandon the strategy and no one will remember come the fall.
Obama had a bad week so the race tightens somehow.
And that surprises anyone ?
I still dont understand why a week of negative attack is treated as if it was the end of the world. Geez
June/July Rasmussen: "Party ID is like identity to a sports team - it rarely changes and then only at glacial speed."
August Rasmussen: "Whoops, looks like Democrats suddenly dropped 2%, guess I'll be adjusting all my polls based on that one result now. Good thing I'm not partnered with 538 or anything considering how much my polls affect his results."
Yeaaaaaahhhhh......
If I lived in a state where all the taxes were paid by tourists I could understand their politics better but from my vantage point I'm pretty sick of Florida and their self identification. They better hope global warming doesn't exist.
Obama had a mistake free trip to the Middle East where the leader of Iraq and the United States agreed to his viewpoint and yet the people and press are following the McCain campaign's discussion of some Hollywood starlets and Charleton Heston. This from the party that elected Ronald Reagan and discussed changing the Constitution so an action star could run for president. Remarkable.
dsalkovi I agree with you about the electoral count .. however OH, VA and other battlegrounds have not been polled recently. What we really need are tracking polls from these states, not just a national tracking poll. lots of work i know .. but this would truly give us the clearest picture of where the election is at.
I am voting Obama -- I'll go down with the ship if I have to -- but the Zogby numbers are disastrous. Disastrous not in the sense where they currently stand but by how much Obama has fallen with nearly every demographic he was dominating.
McCain is pounding Obama, pounding him and Obama's only response is that McCain is cynical. I don't think the Democrats know how to fight back effectively -- Obama has this election won on the issues but he is simply being annihilated in the court of public opinion because he won't fight back.
Amazing, another Dukakis/Kerry emerging right before our eyes.
Obama is doing badly: "Too early, it's still the summer, most people aren't paying attention yet, etc."
Obama is doing well: "Commanding lean, McCain won't be able to catch up, the election is over, etc."
They keep ping-ponging back and forth!
Looks like the beginning of the end of the Obamessiah to me. Mondale -- Dukakis -- Gore -- Kerry -- Obama
@Adam
2% Party ID shift over two months is what pollsters consider "glacial". If you look at 2004, Republican Party ID grew by 5-6% between January and November.
Even with the # of people Rasmussen is sampling per month, Party ID can still jump around by 1-2% each month by random error.
Another thought - if Obama doesn't want to fight back against attacks in the media, how are we supposed to believe he's willing to fight back against al-Qaida and Iran?
John McCain is the next president of the United States.
Internal demographic breakdown in the SUSA poll I can't quite figure out - in their summary paragraph, they note that Obama outperforms McCain by 68 points among blacks, which correctly translates into an 84-16 lead in the crosstabs. They also write that Obama leads McCain by 60 points among Hispanics; however, the crosstabs show just a 48-42 advantage. Misprint somewhere, or am I totally missing something?
"Even with the # of people Rasmussen is sampling per month, Party ID can still jump around by 1-2% each month by random error."
Right, that's my point. It would appear from everything I've heard that Rasmussen weights all his polls by party ID based on the current month's numbers. So, if he got a 2% random error (which, yes, is definitely possible even with his large sample sizes), that's going to introduce a roughly 2% bias to every poll from that month. Given Rasmussen seems like 40-50% of 538's polls, that's going to introduce a really large margin of error to Nate's results.
Of course, I could be incorrect and he could be doing a rolling average like he does with daily, but that's not what it seems like.
Also, /wave to all the trolls coming out of the woodwork at the first sign of good news for the geriatric one. Keep it rational please.
I'm looking forward to the debates.
Charles Franklin has a very interesting post over at Pollster.com, which compares the polling dynamics in national tracking polls in 2000, 2004, and 2008.
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/polling_trends_in_2008_vs_04_a.php
One thing he fails to notice is that this year could be argued to be mirror image of 2000. In that year, Bush led by 5-7 through Aug. 1, plummeted badly in August (Dem convention + Lieberman choice), and then recovered by mid-Oct to +2.5, but then lost a bunch at the end and came out -0.5 in the popular vote. The final polls were off too far to the Republican side by 3%.
So, far, except for the dog days of the primary campaign, Obama has led by 4ish through Aug 1. Will he also collapse by 10 points in August? He's already down 4-5 in some polls. Note, however, that Gore was unable to ever get more than a +3 advantage, and that only very briefly. Head winds against a third Clinton term were just too strong.
@omega:
If Obama doesnt want to launch personal attacks questioning the integrity and competence of a veteran US senator and former US pilot, how do we know he will fight terrorists?
Give me a break. I believe this tightening of polls is just what the doctor ordered so that the Democrats do not get too giddy, and continue their voter registration efforts at full speed.
I'm just wondering if you have any sense of how the lack of cell phone polling is affecting numbers in all of these national or state polls. It's suggested that young people have far fewer land line phones and that they are not being counted in any of the polls. It is also suggested that many of these voters will be for Obama.
Is there any way to calculate or estimate how much of an effect this has on polling numbers?
Am I crazy (quite possible) or did Obama's win percentage go up today? I thought it was like 61.1% yesterday.
This guy seriously doesn't seem to have any fight in him. At the end of the primaries he chose to cross his fingers instead of gutting it out in Appalachia. When the GOP called him on skipping the troop visit he should have been irate and lashed out at McCain for questioning his patriotism instead of laying low until it passed over. I know there's a long way to go, but if the GOP can smack him around like this it's going to a long 3 months.
August is McCain´s month.
I never thought I'd say this but I think Democrats and Independents are getting severe buyer's remorse with Obama -- as much as I couldn't stand Hillary, she'd be riding McCain so hard right now, his campaign wouldn't know what end was up. There's no way to tell, but I believe Hillary would be + 7 to 10 points on McCain today.
I keep reading these polls -- state polls and national trackers -- and in not one poll has Obama even maintained his numbers from two weeks ago. Plus 9 right after the overseas tour and now minus 1 and counting lower.
Who would have thought that Hillary was right all along -- Obama can't win this thing, he doesn't know how -- all that money, all that popularity, all that great ground organization and he's gonna lose to MCCAIN.
No chuzpah, none on Obama.
The geriatric one .. haha i like that!
McCain is on a hot streak right now. Just like Obama was on a hot streak before during the world tour. The difference is when BO goes on a hot streak, his lead goes up to 7-9. When McCain goes on a hot streak, the best he can do is pull even. Once Obama weathers this storm, I expect him to regain a comfortable 3-5pt lead ..
Rich said:
"Is there any way to calculate or estimate how much of an effect this has on polling numbers?"
The one study does on this recently (Pew) stated it wasn't a big effect, but adding cell phones in did produce a 3 point swing.
Nate went over it some time ago I think: good pollsters do compensate for the lack of youth with landlines by weighting what youth do answer to match their likely voter percentage. However, since such a sample is so low, it introduces a lot of volatility. Basically, probably a slight advantage to Obama, but noticably more volatility in polls compared to the likely outcome.
A truly random oddity (I assume) about the Charles Franklin data on pollster.com I referenced above.
Polling data on Sept. 1, 2004, and Sept. 1, 2000, got the final popular vote differential between the candidates exactly right.
In both cases, that was early during the Republican convention and the Dem convention had already happened. Same timing this year. Any takers that Sept. 1 polling nails the popular vote differential this year?
"I keep reading these polls -- state polls and national trackers -- and in not one poll has Obama even maintained his numbers from two weeks ago. Plus 9 right after the overseas tour and now minus 1 and counting lower."
Are you really that daft? The uh, Gallup poll has Obama at +3, exactly where he was two weeks ago. The +9 was a one-day temporary bump due to all the nonstop coverage of the Berlin speech, and quickly leveled off to where it was before. That's why Nate never gave him credit for that bump to begin with, and that's why his numbers aren't dropping to 50% because of one day of -1 in Rasmussen. That's the whole point of this site.
Tough to reconcile Rasmussen's national polling with their own state polling averages:
http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=7326
Obama needs to give a major energy policy speech or something, because McCain is killing him on that issue.
I'm beginning to wonder whether this shell game Obama is playing is going to yield an even bigger surprise than anyone is expecting. I keep seeing here and elsewhere that Obama could make huge waves and totally change the game by picking a huge underdog candidate as VP.
I'm wondering whether it's entirely out of the realm of reason that Obama could ask Al Gore to be his running mate.
"Obama needs to give a major energy policy speech or something, because McCain is killing him on that issue."
You mean besides the major energy policy speech he gave this morning? Where he outlined his energy policy in significant detail?
I guess if the media doesn't cover something, it doesn't happen. Hard to overcome that bias.
@Mark:
Obama gave a major Energy speech today.
McCain on the other hand suffers from an acute lack of detailed policy details apart form gimmicks like gas tax holiday.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0708/12215.html
For whatever it's worth, besides party affiliation, here's one more caveat on the SUSA FL poll that I just noticed:
The previous SUSA poll (McCain +2) used a sample of registered voters. This poll (McCain +6) is based on likely voters.
Obama's only energy "plan" is to have us check the pressure on our tires.
Nate,
How come you never included the latest Rasmussen poll from Montana?
McCain 47% (45%)
Obama 47% (44%)
Are some people on here that oblivious to shifts in polls at this stage of the race? National tracking polls don't MEAN anything at this point. How in the world can you say Clinton would have been ahead by 7-10 points when she couldn't break at all with Independents? Why do you think so many voters are undecided?
I agree with some of you that Obama needs way more effective attack ads, but speaking so soon about a Dukakis/Gore/Kerry defeat is not only idiotic...but a bit paranoid. The debates will change a lot, as well as VP picks and the messages from both conventions. Most people aren't even paying attention to most of the race, and with the responses of some of the blowhards on here, that's not shocking.
Obama never was going to run away with this race, and Clinton was the same way. People forget that McCain has always been a relatively strong candidate, and that has weathered despite Republican disadvantages.
Florida is a state in flux. The polls have been all over the place and I honestly have no clue who will win there. I'd give McCain the advantage, but it is winnable for Obama. However, salivating or becoming depressed over ONE SurveyUSA Poll with a 6 point advantage is just ridiculous. Obama has led in the last two polls, and McCain has been ahead in polls before that. This borderline-paranoia of dissecting one poll and declaring something as "over" is not something that an individual who understands elections should be doing.
Very strange cross-tabs on the SUSA poll.
One more nugget for everyone to consider. In this poll, McCain did better among women than men. The difference is within the MoE, but it sticks out like a sore thumb.
So, where are all the dicks who insist that Nate doesn't talk about polls that show bad results for Obama?
And let me agree with emperorwillis: a "good" week for McCain is polling within the margin of error.
I'm sure the Republicans would hate to see a "bad" week; I might buy some stock in Maalox just before the first debate.
Thanks, I just read about it and went "d'oh!" Funny that it didn't make non-political headlines and yet the Berlin speech did.
Both candidates are guilty of gimmicks. Offshore drilling is a gimmick, gas tax holiday is a gimmick, ANWR drilling is a gimmick, corn-based ethanol is a gimmick, the idea of powering the whole country with solar and wind is a gimmick.
My opinion? We need to legalize the growth of industrial hemp immediately for more efficient ethanol, pour billions into R&D on clean coal gasification and safe nuclear energy (offering major incentives to energy companies might be more effective than government-run command research), lift limits on and re-incentivize electric vehicles, lift the federal ban on offshore drilling (but allow states to choose whether or not to allow it without either federal penalty or incentive), strengthen energy ties with Canada and other friendly and stable oil-rich countries, and begin decommissioning energy interests in the Middle East and the Niger Delta.
For those on this blog bemoaning Obama's collapse in today's polls (including Nate), please wander over to the 50-state graph generated by Electoral-vote.com.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/Graphs/all.html
Basically, these polls have Obama and McCain essentially right where they've been all year. Even MA. Especially MA. In fact, from Feb through May, Obama led in MA by 2, 7, 0, 8, 2, 12, 5, 13. Today's result of 9 is hardly out of character. Moreover, Obama's 47 is exactly where he was throughout this period. And McCain's 38 is actually down about 6 from where he started.
McCain is a MA-style Republican, in the mold of the old Mitt Romney. Hardly surprising he'd do well there and elsewhere in Blue land.
Virginia Conservative said...
Obama's only energy "plan" is to have us check the pressure on our tires.
That's a really witty one-liner.
Or rather, it would be, if it were based on any kind of, you know, "facts."
http://www.barackobama.com/issues/energy/
Of course, why bother READING a candidate's position on the issues, when you can just make up shit instead? That's easier, and way more fun.
@dario: Just like Dec 2004-Sep 2007 were Hillary's "months." I don't understand why everyone is either freaking out or exuding optimism for no reason, but it's very simple: Obama is doing EXACTLY what he did to Hillary, which is what used to be known as the "Rope-a-Dope." He's letting McCain punch himself out in July and August, (remember it's called the "Silly Season" for a reason) without actually giving up the lead, so that he can CREAM him come September and October.
Once Obama gets in the debates with McCain, the country is going to wake up and realize which man is qualified to be President and which is qualified for Social Security. Added to the possibility of Rove, Miers, Bolton AND Ted Stevens all spending at least a night in jail before Election Day, and McCain is going to get absolutely dusted. The GOP never was able to beat the Clintons, and Obama did it in 6 months. And Democrats are scared of John McCain? I thought it was only Republicans that were huge cowards.
"Virginia Conservative said...
Obama's only energy "plan" is to have us check the pressure on our tires."
Looks like you've recited your talking points well today, VC. Nope, he definitely didn't give a detailed energy policy speech today. Inflating your tires was all he said! Really!
Do you honestly even believe the stuff you spout here?
Virginia Conservative:
You are completely wrong about the energy issue. Both Arnold Schwarzenegger and Charlie Crist have said people need to check the pressure on their tires. That's a simple thing that does make some difference in gas consumption. Is McCain going to mock two of his biggest supporters for making this comment? Of course not. That shows how McCain is completely disingenuous.
Obama has consistently talked about a multi-faceted energy policy of having 1 million plug-in cars on the roads by 2015, tapping into the Strategic Oil reserves, limited drilling that is environmentally sound and feasible, and exploring alternative energies including wind and solar power. McCain just talks about "drilling now", which just makes people forget about the underlying problem that has crippled our country for such a long time--depending on OIL for everything! McCain's $300M gimmick about producing a special engine is not an energy policy.
Obama has a better chance of winning NC and VA, than he does FL.
Daniel sez:
"Who would have thought that Hillary was right all along -- Obama can't win this thing, he doesn't know how -- all that money, all that popularity, all that great ground organization and he's gonna lose to MCCAIN."
Don't count your chickens. Obama beat Hillary, didn't he? And she was MUCH more "inevitable" than McLame.
I've only seen McCain leading nationally in the "likely voters" witchcraft mambo jumbo polling. It's not going to fly this election.
Please don't feed Virginia Conservative. She's hungry for the attention and brings nothing to the table.
A couple of outliers and the Grand OLD Party trolls come out of the woodwork. You're grasping at straws. If Obama during a bad week and McCain at a good week produces a tie, it's obvious who is winning this thing.
Regarding Obama's energy policy and Republican criticism of the tire gauge proposal, the following TIME article is very good: "The Tire-Gauge Solution: No Joke".
@ rnst_p: Yesterday, Obama's win percentage was 66.1, so there was indeed a drop today.
Great chart for polling stats enthusisats, comparing state of the race with 2000 and 2004:
http://politicalarithmetik.blogspot.com/2008/08/polling-trends-in-2008-vs-04-and-00.html
I think it is important to remember that Obama is really a rookie running for any political office. He lost badly his attempt at a House seat to Bobby (Black Panther)Rush in a primary but had the good fortune of winning his Senate seat against a guy who wasn't even a resident of Illinois. True, he beat Hillary, but isn't more true that Hillary and Bill beat themselves?
McCain's campaign (with the new Schmidt in command) is running circles around the Obama campaign that was suppose to be so perfect. Now, like a rookie quarterback in the NFL, Obama is being exposed and he sure doesn't look ready start.
Good football analogy Michael, expect that Obama is running a campaign on issues, while Karl Rove is running a McCain campaign on fear and lies.
Must make you real proud to be an American right?
Re: Tire Pressure: Even the Bush administration agrees!
http://fueleconomy.gov/feg/maintain.shtml
"McCain's campaign (with the new Schmidt in command) is running circles around the Obama campaign that was suppose to be so perfect. Now, like a rookie quarterback in the NFL, Obama is being exposed and he sure doesn't look ready start."
======
What are you on? McCain's campaign is showing nothing but a eager media that is all to happy to run with whatever McCain feeds them.
Who could have predicted that, come August, the old white guy would be perceived as the hapless yet lovable underdog?
No need to panic. Actually, I hope the tightening wakes up the Obama campaign and it's supporters.
Obama seems to have a tendency to play soft with a lead.
I just donated $500 to Obama and hit my primary limit of $2300. I was holding back a bit given the lead.
I suggest all Obama supporters give today as much as they can. It is his birthday after all.
I believe this is still just a blip until proven otherwise.
Umm, isn't there a simpler explanation of the dip in Democratic ID advantage? A lot of people register as Democrat in order to participate in the primaries/caucuses (Republicans don't get a similar bump as the race ends quickly and generally lower excitement). Primaries/caucuses end and people switch back to Independent registration. We'll call this the primary bump. The real news is that the Democrats remain 2% higher than they were pre-bump, not that they are down 2% from the peak of the bump.
Why is it a surprise that Obama is not fighting back against clever attack ads? Jesse Jackson said he wanted to castrate him and the wimpy metrosexual Obama didn't respond with any emotion at all. How could Obama stand up for America when he won't even stand up for himself?
Unless Barack wins a landslide nationally (which is unlikely), Barack will not carry Florida. Period.
"Who could have predicted that, come August, the old white guy would be perceived as the hapless yet lovable underdog?"
You are right; he is like the '69 Mets as he is a lovable loser :)
For those who bring up the "cellphone gap," let me point you to the Gallup Daily Tracker, which includes respondents who are cellphone-only.
Both Rasmussen and Gallup daily trackers are awesome state of the race markers at the national vote level. Gallup is an RV poll and Rass is a LV poll.
If you're loaded with some theories that Rass is cookin' the books, then ingore it and stick with the RV poll out of Gallup. Or if you're concerned with both of those, then better to stick with the Zogby Internet series of self-selecting respondent polls just to drive yourself insane. (smirk)
I will say this now and I will say it again in the future. This race will be tight pretty much the entire way, HOWEVER,it will break and it will break HARD in Obama's way. 1980 anyone?
Compare the way the electoral map looks today with the way it looked just six days ago.
NH & MI have moved out of the Obama column and into the 'tossup' column. MO, IN, FL & MT have moved from 'tossup' to McCain.
Is this good? Of course it's not good, it's terrible! Does this mean Obama will lose the election? No. It just means that a week is an eternity in politics.
I love this 'site because it lets me follow the changes day by day.
Let's hope Obama has a few good days on the horizon.
Ugh... same people who were moaning before the Europe trip. Polls will go up and down, chill.
Guys, relax. Rasmussen's numbers are not the same as they were weeks ago and I wonder what he is doing to make this more of a horse race. Barack did not lose 9 points. He moved back 3-4 giving up what he gained overseas. Big deal.
The Gallup +3 is the same as pre overseas trip and per their last 60 day average. The movements here of 3-5 Points based on good news like the trip or nonsense like the ads is the "tide" of the election right now.
The internals on some of these polls are bizarre. The SUSA shows black vote at 84% for Barack, come on...The female and youth votes as well don't jibe.
Barack is not a punching bag and after the last 2 days the energy issue is neutered on drilling and working for a compromise.
He will hit back in his way this week as he started today w/ the new ad.
Remember we are spending $5M on the Olympics and will be in front of the entire country for 2 weeks on TV and online.
51 state races, organization, commitment and ground game...and a real message and candidate...
This team knows what they are doing and will get the job done..
THIS IS THE BEST THING TO HAPPEN TO OBAMA SINCE CLINCHING THE NOMINATION.
Obama won today's media war. The new attack add and his speech, it was the first time he drove media coverage (excluding his trip abroad) since June.
If by seeing his pole numbers plummet, he realizes he needs a media message attacking McCain and going on offense, then this is spectacular news.
McCain has gotten his lead through media manipulation, attack adds, false charges, false outrage ect...
It looks petty but the media loves it and covers the crap out of it and thus McCain is driving coverage. Last week was a brilliant political week for McCain. They put out a new attack ad every day and ended the week with "The race card." As far as driving media coverage, Karl Rove could not have done it better himself. I'm sure he's very proud of his disciple, Steve Schmidt.
If Obama has finally realized he needs to be tearing a stripe out of McCain's ass every day, as well as blowing up at every last McCain misstatement and campaign mistake, then losing his lead will be worth it.
For weeks I have been dismayed with his lack of even a criticism of McCain while McCain campaign was destroying him. You need to make news every day to push media coverage, like Obama did today, or you will lose the narrative and your support. The rest of this week is the test. Barrack needs to start fighting the media spin war, or he will lose this election.
Hillary Clinton would be all over McCain and tearing him apart. Obama's high minded politics are making me sick. What about bringing a gun to a knife fight. Hell bring a F***ing tank, but you gotta at least get in the fight. Don't sit on your hands like a Harvard educated stooge. Come on.
Barack says McCain is using distractions. Yes Mr Harvard, he is. Open your eyes. You have lost all momentum and look weak. Right now you are John Kerry.
This is a WAR fought in the 24H news cycle. Right now the enemy is dropping nukes and you have a dinner knife. The media is saying, OK Obama, you don't want to make any news, we'll listen to your opponent, he's making lots of news, and its all bad for you. But hey, its not the media's fault you don't know how to play the game.We are seeing a presidential campaign woefully unprepared to fight a media war. I'm not sure they know they're in a war. Bombs are dropping all around them and they fire back today, when tremendous damage has already been inflicted. Good news, there is lots of time, but you have to start fighting.
First let me say I expect McCain to win Florida. If Obama wins Fla he likely wins in a landslide.
That having been said one thing in the SUSA crosstabs caught my eye, African Americans comprise 11% of the sample, in 2004 exit polls showed AA comprising 12% of the voters (They are nearly 16% of the population). Also McCain is recieving 16% of the AA vote (Bush recieved 13%). Does anyone really think African American turnout will go down in Florida and Obama will do worse with them than Kerry did?
This race reminds me of American Idol. David Archuleta was the wholesome, clean-cut, goody-two-shoes that everyone assumed was going to win. If you checked the polls, the overwhelming favorite was Archuleta. But then David Cook won and BIG by 12%. Why? Because the american public doesn't vote for Archuleta types - they prefer people with dirt under the fingernails.
The Idol result was a big "upset" only to those who think Americans fall for glitz. They actually despise glitz. McCain is going to win big.
GregM wrote
The following TIME article is very good
It is indeed, Greg! I particularly like the concluding remarks:
Of course, in recent years, the Republican Party has been affiliated with the oil industry. It was the oilman Dick Cheney who dismissed conservation as a mere sign of "personal virtue," not a basis for energy policy. It was the oilman George W. Bush who resisted efforts to regulate carbon emissions. And most congressional Republicans have been even more reliable water-carriers for the industry's interests.
John McCain has been a notable exception. He is not an oilman, he has pushed to regulate carbon emissions, and he opposed Bush's pork-stuffed energy bill, which Obama supported. He also opposed efforts to drill in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, and until recently opposed new offshore drilling. But now that gas prices have spiked, McCain is running for President on a drill-first platform, and polls suggest that most Americans agree with him. It's sad to see his campaign adopting the politics of the tire gauge, promoting the fallacy that Americans are powerless to address their own energy problems. Because the truth is: Yes, we can. We already are.
I'm an Obama supporter, but more than that I'm a supporter of intelligent energy policy and, sad to say, both candidates have been moving away from energy sanity and toward electoral pandering.
Here's the truth: In the long run, high gasoline prices are good for us. But will you hear the politicians articulating that truth?? You will not!
I want to support a measure to INCREASE the federal tax on gasoline. We need the money for highway repair (not to mention highway safety); and, besides, why should the oilmen take ALL the profits that high energy prices provide? Let's let the government get some of it.
Brian said...
"
The Idol result was a big "upset" only to those who think Americans fall for glitz. They actually despise glitz. McCain is going to win big."
Wow! What a stupid analysis. American Idol???!!! What are you 12?
Barack Obama just isn't as cool anymore, ever since your parents put his sticker on their station wagon and gush about his speeches at their library fundraisers...
Obama is the new Linkin Park. A lot cooler before he was mainstream.
As for the AA vote, yes, there are some states where McCain will get in the teens in % and those are states that have a significant military presence. The military is fairly color-blind so I could see McCain getting 10%-17% in VA, NC and FL. He won't get those % in OH, MI or PA though.
Obama has essentially crippled himself with the Strategic Oil Preserve and drilling comments since he very recently (July 7th) had the opposite. I can see very easily a "I voted for the $87 million before I voted against it" montage with all of Obama's doublespeak in the past month.
All McCain has to do is get Obama to be viewed as a typical politician. He is well on the way to accomplishing the goal and, if he does, he can expect a popular vote win of 2-4% come November.
It appears as if the millions invested in GA and FL were "sunk costs" and the will only drain Obama's warchest further. NC is rapidly slipping away too. He is going to have to bite the bullet and pick Hillary as VP or else he may well lose (don't be surprised to see OH shift to McCain in the next round of polling).
Some more oddness from the SUSA crosstabs.
In the SUSA poll 30% of the electorate are over 65 years old. In the 2004 exit polls 19% were over 65,
In the SUSA poll 17% of the sample was between 18-34. In the 2004 exits 17% were between 18-29 (maybe 30-34 year olds don't vote)
Obama is viewed as a typical politician. You guys are so full of shit. The same thing happened in the Primaries. Obama was rolling until Hillary went negative before Ohio and Texas, Obama doesen't play the media game, and he lost those two primaries and never recovered, but had a lead big enough to win.
I always thought he laid off Hillary because he believed he had it in the bag and damaging her would make it harder to bring the party together.
What I realize now is Obama's campaign either doesn't understand media spin or doesn't want to do it, but they'd better start. Obama deserved to lose his lead. Can anyone here list an attack Obama has made against McCain since July started? You can't because there were none. No attack, very few campaign events, only a couple of speeches and thats it.
This is very similar to the primaries. Obama has to get in the game, and he'll be fine. LOL, you wouldn't know but McCain was up by 10 points. Sure Obama should have a larger lead, but he really hasn't campaigned in a month. Last week was his worst week of the campaign thus far and he's lost poll support. Notice how all the bumps are on Obama's side? thats because theres a lot of soft support and undecideds going McCains way after last week. Obama will bounce back to +2,+3 before the conventions and come out of his with 5-10 point lead, then 3-4 points after the Rep. convention.
Remember demographics have changed since last election and Obama has a +2 - +5 demographic lead. If he figures out how to play the media spin game, he'll be fine.
"HRC would be up 5-7 points on McCain right now"
Big Red, in addition to being a fool you are a liar. You pull numbers out your butt and expect people to believe them. Just like Rush and Billo the Clown
"Hope and Change. American isn't ready for it"
You are right MV red. McCain as a surrogate candidate for Big Oil represents neither. I am glad we agree that McCain does NOT represent any hope for Americans.
Greg M at 9:12,
That is the most elitist, arrogant, out of touch bulls**t I have ever seen posted here. High gas prices are GOOD???? I work with 18-23 year olds who spend HALF THEIR PAYCHECK just to drive. How in the hell is that a good thing?
Tax gas even more?? Are you insane??? Yeah, just what we need...the government having EVEN MORE money. It's not their place to take everything people make. That is not protecting the people, it's FLEECING them.
What would anyone vote for McCain? I'm confused.
What are you Hillary supporters worried about. If Obama loses she'll get her shot next time, and probably win. She'd be in better shape than Obama right now because the Clinton's know how to play the media spin wars. I'd venture to say she would be up 5-8 points too.
This election is still in the bag if Obama decides to play offense which he did today for the first time in weeks. Like any sports team, its hard to play defense all the time, and score. McCain can only go negative like last week so often. Last week has paid off for now, but there are no lasting results or damage to Obama's credibility. The race dust up was the killer. The Britney ad didn't hurt at all. The celebrity tag is nonsense, Americans love celebrities. If Barack has learned that the only thing prevent defense prevents, is winning, then he's learned a valuable lesson.
Besides, its too early to worry about polls. We got the VP picks, Olympics, conventions and debates.
Stop the Stutter,
I couldn't agree more. Sometimes I think some of the left wing (environmentalists in particular) WANT gas prices to go up just so people will be unable to drive because of gas prices and, in the minds of environmental extremists, save the earth. It seems to me these people are putting the welfare of polar bears and trees above everyday people. Is it just me or is that wrong? Please enlighten me
How come no one ever discusses the windfall profits the government makes every time they increase taxes?
We keep hearing about these "record-breaking" profits for oil companies, but how come we never hear about the even larger record amounts of money being collected in gas taxes?
Oh, right. Because government will save us all. I forgot. Hope. Change. Soma.
MI a toss up? Obama has led every poll since the end of May.
Plus, to all you "hilary should have been nominated folks", the GOP may not have brains but it has solidarity. Until you naysayers start supporting blue in full, the GOP is going to stay in power.
Straight talk you don't want to here. I am unbiased here too. HRC would be destroying the GOP right now, but you picked Hope and Change. American isn't ready for it
MVRed, are you David Hartman, or are you Michael Metzinger? Gotta place a face with your comments!
MI a toss up?
Oh, it's a toss up alright! Keep throwing money at Michigan, McSame! It's doing a lotta good! And don't spend a single dime in Indiana or anything... no need to go there.
Ben,
Must you be so shrill? Geez you sound like Hillary herself. Please, have a civil discussion or go elsewhere. Yes Michigan is a tossup because Obama's leads have consistently been small.
It seems to me these people are putting the welfare of polar bears and trees above everyday people. Is it just me or is that wrong? Please enlighten me
That's what they say they want, but really, their environmental facade is really motivated by a desire to deconstruct the capitalist system that western societies are built on. Admittedly, some may have good intentions of equality, but they take it to dangerous extremes when they start forcing people to live, eat, dress, think a certain way that they approve of.
In the end, politics is all about power. It always will be. And even the Greens are susceptible to its siren song.
Obama has just debuted his new ad attacking McCain for being in the pocket of the big-oil companies.
This is exactly what Obama needs to do between now and the election.
He needs a new attack ad playing in battleground states about every 4 or 5 days, just like McCain is doing.
http://my.barackobama.com/
page/content/pocket_ad
Will Republicans like this ad? NO! All our own right-wing trolls will howl with derision! IT'S NOT AIMED AT YOU FOOLS!
It's aimed at DEMOCRATS! Obama is trying to shore up his base and this is exactly what he needs to do, attack McCain as the tool of big-oil and a Bush clone!
Here's the text:
"Announcer VO: Every time you fill your tank, the oil companies fill their pockets.
Now Big Oil’s filling John McCain’s campaign with 2 million dollars in contributions.
Because instead of taxing their windfall profits to help drivers, McCain wants to give them another 4 billion in tax breaks.
After one president in the pocket of big oil… We can’t afford another.
Barack Obama… A windfall profits tax on big oil to give families a thousand dollar rebate.
A president who’ll stand up for you.
Barack VO: I’m Barack Obama and I approve this message"
Exactly what I predicted would happen is starting to happen. McCain going nuclear with attack ads is giving Obama the chance to rally the Democratic base of the party -- just like Bush's Swift-boating in 2004 rallied 89% of Democrats to Kerry by November.
Only slight difference: Democrats have a 7-10% Party ID advantage this year, unlike 2004 when Republicans were tied at 37%, they are now at 31% and haven't moved upward all year.
So if negative attacks rally the base of both parties, Obama wins in a landslide.
This election is turning out to be a base election, just like 2000 and 2004, except the Republican base is a lot smaller now. Obama is starting to realize it and as the polls continue to tighten, he's going to have to go after McCain and tie him effectively to Bush.
It won't matter a bit that Republicans will hate these attacks and call him "negative" and a "hypocrite," any more than it matters what Democrats think of McCain's attack ads! We HATE them and think McCain is a total lying SCUM-BAG!
Well, those ads aren't aimed at us! They are aimed at rallying the base of the Republican party to McCain, just as Bush's Swift-boat ads were in 2004.
Same thing here! Republicans can go screw themselves. There are more of us than there are of them and every bit of polarization helps! The more Obama attack ads and McCain attack ads fill the airwaves after September 1 the better -- for Obama that is!
"Citizen Grim"
You need to write a personal check to Exxonmobile for $10,000. If you do not, you just raised ExxonMobile's taxes by $10,000.
Remember, instead of roads and schools and Healthcare taxpayers can send their money ExxonMobile!
Big Oil will save us all! Hallaullah! Can I get a amen from the choir?
I won't tell you I told you so.... yet! LOL you poor liberal fools
James said...
Stop the Stutter,
I couldn't agree more. Sometimes I think some of the left wing (environmentalists in particular) WANT gas prices to go up just so people will be unable to drive because of gas prices and, in the minds of environmental extremists, save the earth. It seems to me these people are putting the welfare of polar bears and trees above everyday people. Is it just me or is that wrong? Please enlighten me
It is just you. We're reaching Peak Oil, which means if we continue at our current rate of consumption, we will soon see gas prices shoot up exponentially.
Hate $4/gallon? Wait for $30/gallon. If we can cut consumption, we stave off Peak Oil, which means energy prices stay (relatively) stable during the 20-30 years it takes us to find an alternative fuel source. Raising federal taxes is one way to cut consumption (although, to be fair to your argument, I'm not convinced it's the best way).
It's not about saving polar bears, it's about keeping people from starving because the rising cost of transportation has quadrupled the price of food.
What are you Hillary supporters worried about. If Obama loses she'll get her shot next time, and probably win. She'd be in better shape than Obama right now because the Clinton's know how to play the media spin wars. I'd venture to say she would be up 5-8 points too.
=========
You forget that Clinton would very likely have a bigger anti vote than Obama. Despite all the talk, she was also polling far worse than Obama in the democratic national polls at the end of the primaries.
A bunch of typical, wimpy Democratic responses to Virginia Conservative and the others who repeated that falsehood today.
The simple answer is that Virginia Conservative is either a LIAR or IGNORANT since that statement was not true. Only Virginia Conservative knows which term applies.
From Zogby:
"McCain gained 20% and Obama lost 16% among voters ages 18-29. Obama still leads that group, 49%-38%.
Among women, McCain closed 10 points on Obama, who still leads by a 43%-38% margin.
Obama has lost what was an 11% lead among Independents. He and McCain are now tied.
Obama had some slippage among Democrats, dropping from 83% to 74%.
Obama’s support among single voters dropped by 19%, and he now leads McCain, 51%-37%.
Even with African-Americans and Hispanics, Obama shows smaller margins. "
Wow!
Cugel,
What happened to your once brilliant, factual answers? I once respected you more than any other blogger here, and I'm a conservative. Now all I read is mindless spluttering (McCain is a scumbag). Please, stick to fact-based responses
Zogby sucks as a pollster, but if those numbers are right Obama is in real trouble and they clearly underestimated drilling.
Obama has been way to passive.
Robby: there's just no point trying to point out stupid things like FACTS to our trolls!
They are willfully ignorant and never let mere facts get in the way of their pet crank-ideas.
"Global warming? Some liberal plot of Al Gore and EarthFirst! Ha! Ha! He's so FAT now! Dirty Hippie!"
"Peak Oil? Just drill for more oil!"
Never mind that it will take over 8 years before the first new domestic oil-fields come on line and meanwhile and for the next 30 years American oil production will be DECLINING -- not because of "environmental wackos" but because we pumped most of the oil out years ago.
America's oil-fields are in decline. There's no way round that. Even as new oil fields are desperately searched for and developed at ever increasing cost, production is inevitably declining in others. Ultimately there's NO WAY to stop this decline.
We just have to shift to alternative energy sources and conserve more energy.
Time Magazine:
"The Bush administration estimates that expanded offshore drilling could increase oil production by 200,000 barrels per day by 2030. We use about 20 million barrels per day, so that would meet about 1% of our demand two decades from now. Meanwhile, efficiency experts say that keeping tires inflated can improve gas mileage by 3%, and regular maintenance can add another 4%. Many drivers already follow their advice, but if everyone else did, we could reduce demand several percentage points immediately. In other words: Obama is right."
http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/
0,8599,1829354,00.html?cnn=yes
Don't expect Republicans to acknowledge this simple fact though. Their heads might explode.
New Zogby poll:
Obama leads in AZ 42-39
No one has ever won a Presidential Election when losing their home state.
Wow!
More ouch for the Lib board whores. The trolls are you morons not the people shoing common sense.
"Electoral votes decide the Presidency, and this ATV/Zogby poll gives signs that McCain is making gains in winning key states. By region, McCain’s greatest gains came in the Central U.S. and in the West, home to several key battleground states. What was a narrow Obama lead in the Central U.S. is now a 45%-36% McCain edge. In the West, Obama’s 15% lead is gone, and McCain is now ahead, 43%-40%. "
I don't hear any conservatives saying we can drill our way out. What I here is we need to drill here drill now to increase domestic production until we can master the technology. We need to start building 30 nuke plants today, add thousands of acres of wind farms today, increase hydro/thermal today, increase natural gas production today, add solar panels to the roof of every building in NYC and LA today, stop wasting oil to produce ethanol today. That is what the conservatives are saying. The dems are saying it's sky is falling the conservatives are saying put up an umbrela until you can build a bluer sky.
NC moderate,
Two Questions
1. Do you know Zogby's reputation?
He has Obama leading in South Carolina for heaven's sakes.
2. Did you see the other two Arizona polls today? McCain is up by 12 and 19 points respectively
Must you be so shrill? Geez you sound like Hillary herself. Please, have a civil discussion or go elsewhere. Yes Michigan is a tossup because Obama's leads have consistently been small.
Yes James, I must be shrill. Please learn to accept that you cannot control the Internets, or go elsewhere.
And I've been saying it for weeks: Michigan is a Big Blue Trap for John McCain. The polls are close enough that he thinks he can win, but that final 3% to go is virtually impossible this year.
In the West, Obama’s 15% lead is gone, and McCain is now ahead, 43%-40%.
What are you quoting here BJB? Numbers in the west have remained unchanged lately. Obama continues to lead CA, OR, WA big and has inched ahead of McCain in CO and NM while closing in on NV.
Actually Ben Colorado had appeared to be in Obama's column but the most recent poll has McCain up by 2there. NM will go Democrat as it did in 2000.
james,
Just quoting polls. Sorry if the news is not what you, the McCain campaign and right-wing trolls did not what to hear.
Nate:
I know you've been on TV and everything, but this http://www.vanityfair.com/online/wolcott/2008/08/with-the-facility-for-brilliant.html
is so much cooler.
"James said...
Cugel,
What happened to your once brilliant, factual answers? I once respected you more than any other blogger here, and I'm a conservative. Now all I read is mindless spluttering (McCain is a scumbag). Please, stick to fact-based responses."
Mindless sputtering? Did you not understand a thing I wrote?
I'll simplify it for you. As a Democrat I HATE, HATE, HATE, McCain's attack ads. Liberals think he's a scumbag for taking the low-road. They infuriate us and make us want to get out and vote TODAY for Obama and give money and time to his campaign.
So, are these ads ineffective? NO! They AREN'T AIMED AT ME OR PEOPLE LIKE ME AT ALL!
That's the point!
I feel angry and sad that this is the state of politics in America, but what is to be done? Whine about it? Or fight back?
McCain doesn't give a flying monkey butt what I think about his ads! They are VERY EFFECTIVE at doing exactly what they are designed to do!
They serve very important purposes to the McCain campaign:
1. They drive up Obama's negatives.
2. They rally the Republican base to McCain, which is lukewarm at best towards him (in polls 16% are "enthusiastic" supporters).
McCain has concluded that running as a "Maverick" and arguing issues isn't going to work, so he's taking the low-road. He can only win if he can paint Obama as unacceptable "not one of us."
Well, Obama needs to wake up and start attacking back. His Party ID advantage won't mean a thing if he can't rally Democrats to him.
If McCain attacks him, attack right back. Don't use "identity attacks" the way McCain does, use facts, like oil lobbyists giving millions to McCain's campaign within days after he flip-flopped on his opposition to drilling in the continental shelf.
I merely pointed out that Republicans will predictably HATE Obama's new attack ads and howl with anger that he's a "hypocrite" and "elitist."
And it won't matter any more than liberal anger at McCain's ads. Obama's ads are aimed at shoring up his base, not pleasing Republicans who will never vote for him anyway. If he can do that, his natural party ID advantage will guarantee victory.
Now, he couldn't very well do this if McCain had continued to take the (relatively) high-road as he was up till he got Rove protege Steve Schmidt in to help run his campaign.
But now that McCain has gone Nuclear? All bets are off.
Ironically, this is NOT the kind of campaign Obama wanted to run. He wanted to run an issues oriented campaign, and he thought that because America was in such dire trouble, the divisive shallow Republican identity-based attacks ("he's an elitist, he's a flip-flopper!") wouldn't work this time.
Well, a good portion of the electorate is a lot dumber than they figured and the same smears still work. And if your opponent is down in the ditch flinging mud with both hands, you'd better find a way to start attacking back real quick because you're going to look pretty stupid all covered in mud, while he stands there smiling in his stainless white suit! Just ask Presidents John Kerry and Mike Dukakis!
NC moderate said
New Zogby poll:
Obama leads in AZ 42-39
No one has ever won a Presidential Election when losing their home state.
NC,
Actually, there are a few Presidential candidates who lost their home states, and won the election. You can check the list
here.
Also, I would not place much credence on that the Zogby AZ poll, as it is most likely an outlier. I would be shocked if Obama won AZ, unless it was as part of a 420+ EV landslide.
Actually Ben Colorado had appeared to be in Obama's column but the most recent poll has McCain up by 2there.
True, one poll in the past year has McCain up there... but the current snapshot is Obama 46, McCain 44.
Certainly McCain can win CO, but Obama has/had snuck ahead of him for at least a few months.
Things are looking very positive for Obama out west. There was a time that I had written off Nevada, which looked to be favoring McCain by a landslide. Now it's the swingiest of swinger states.
I believe offshore drilling is a useful tool, not necessarily because it will have any substantial effect on gas prices (because as Cugel very eloquently pointed out, it won't), but because it will benefit the economies of states with oil in them, namely Alaska and Gulf states. The chance for environmental disaster is very small compared to many of the activities we perform that go on without controversy, like commercial fishing of endangered species.
With that said, probably one of the biggest ways we could reduce oil consumption is by not having people move just about the farthest they can from where they work just so they can keep up with the Joneses and live in the newest McMansion. Hour long commute times are why traffic jams are so prevalent (and even from there they add time to the commute, wasting further gas), another big reason we waste so much. It's fairly safe to say that much of our oil is wasted keeping our motor on while the car is going exactly 0 mph, nudging a few feet every few minutes.
Now it's the swingiest of swinger states.
Freudian slip. In this context, Nevada is a swing state.
It's fairly safe to say that much of our oil is wasted keeping our motor on while the car is going exactly 0 mph, nudging a few feet every few minutes.
Another reason to drive hybrids. They use no gas at 0 mph.
counsellorben,
How obtuse can you be. When people talk about their home state in political terms they mean where they were elected official or last held office.
I'll be shocked if Obama wins Arizona, because that would mean that he'd be carrying New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado each by probably 7-12 points. I mean...no way.
Zogby isn't exactly a paragon of accurate polling, either.
From the choices you offer as to what Obama should do, I don't think it is quite the right time, yet, to hit back at McCain, naming his VP choice is the better bet, but that card is in hand in any case, depending on who the choice is, it will make a difference on the best time to play it. On the off chance that it is Hillary, waiting until the Convention would be the best bet to maximize the dramatic impact.
Actually Ben Colorado had appeared to be in Obama's column but the most recent poll has McCain up by 2 there.
I forgot to mention, James: that Quinnipiac poll is not the most recent poll. The two most recent polls have Obama up in Colorado, by 3 (Rasmussen) and by 4 (Frederick). But they were taken at virtually the same time as the Q. poll with McCain up by 2.
One thing desperately needed in CO is more recent polling. And especially in IN and many other states for that matter.
@counsellorben,
thanks for the info.
Just went onto Obama's website blog and did the same with McCain. The McCain supporters are fired up and ready for war. The Obama supporters feel that Barack should take the high road, not act like the 'schoolyard' bully McCain.
I honestly don't think there is that much difference between Mondale, Dukakis, Gore, Kerry and Obama. As a matter of fact, I think Gore and Kerry would be doing a lot better at this stage of the game than Obama.
Obama's speeches are tailored to people who are ALREADY going to vote for him. When is he going to start showing America he can take on McCain (e.g., knife fight comment) and when is he going to tailor his message to the 90 - 100 IQ Club that only comprehends quick sound bites and guys who show some down and dirty muscle.
If Obama refuses to fight McCain in the weeds, Americans in OH, IN, VA, MT, ND, CO, NV will not respect him enough to vote for him.
I agree Ben. I think the pollsters ought to stop polling such states as Oklahoma and New York and concentrate on OH, MI, CO, and VA. Those four states will decide the election if it ends up being close. That's not to say they shouldn't poll the other states, but I think their attention ought to be on the important swing states. NC Moderate, I'm quite aware you were quoting polls, but the pollster you're quoting is just about the least reliable one there is.
These polls are so not concerning. Obama is perfect shape. Obama is still defending only really defending 1 state from 2004 MI. McCain is defending 11 and doesn't have the money or will to defend them all. He is not willing to do anything in IN, NC, MT, ND, SD, AK. IN is going to Obama out of McCain arrogance. One of the smaller states might also b/c you don't really need that many votes to shift or new voters to turn a state. The ground game advantage is being overlooked. Also, the turnout numbers are being understimated. People still believe Obama's groups aren't going to show up, despite the fact he proved them wrong about that in the primaries. Obama has probably 2-3 points in each of the 19 states he has really targeted.
Btw, GA is in play though McCain refuses to open offices. Bush won it by 500K votes. GA had 1.1 million blacks registered in 2004 ans only 54% showed up. The balck turnout doubled in GA in the primary. Estimates say he can get it up 25%-30% in the general. If you say 25% that's 240K votes. Obama has serious ground gain going on there( I know people in GA) they are trying to register 500,000 new voters which started in late spring. If he gets 500K new voters and say only 50% of them show up that's 250K votes. Suddenly GA is in play with Obama having 490K votes. Don;t forget Barr is going to pull about 6% mostly from the Republican side that Bush got and McCain is not popular in the south and didn't win the primary in GA.
Obama would be a tremendous President for the very reason he's getting his ass kicked this past month. He's only interested in issues and not in nonsense.
An issue oriented president more interested in good governance than political points would be great for the country. We could delve into issues the Bush white house would not.
This approach doesn't fly on the campaign trail however. You can't play defense for weeks at a time and expect your poll numbers to not suffer. One of the critical complaints of Obama during the Primary was he "coasted" often times. He "coasted the entire month of July, taking many attacks on the chin and his poll numbers have paid the price.
The talk on this site of his demise is over the top and not based in reality. Even the Kerry campaign lost by just 3 points and Kerry was a truly uninspiring candidate.
Given this years atmospherics and the pessimistic feeling of voters, its still Obama's to lose. Remember, last week was Obama's worst of the campaign and 1 Rasmussen poll has him behind by 1 point. There are VP's to pick, conventions to run and debates. Contrary to remarks on this site, Obama did great in 22/23 debates with the best debater in the country in Hillary. The one debate he had a bad time was the last where he was ambushed by the moderators.
If Barack can play some offense instead of constant defense he will be fine and win by 3-4 points. If he does not play offense, he will lose another election the democrats had no business losing.
If Obama refuses to fight McCain in the weeds, Americans in OH, IN, VA, MT, ND, CO, NV will not respect him enough to vote for him.
Sad but true. It's time for the gloves to come off, Mr. Obama. Senor McCain has quite a few holes in his record to start talking about. Don't wait until October to get into it.
Daniel,
You do realize that McCain and the Republicans realize that they can't win on the issues. Everyone of their pundits admots that they have to make it about Obama and they do it by slash and burn, lies, and distortions. McCains last ads especially the troops ad were blatant lies even proven wrong by the DOD.
You had the wingnut advisor to McCain on PBS today saying oil went down from $147 high 2 weeks ago b/c McCain and Bush mentioned offshore drilling and they said the dsame about the drop today. The Obama advisor stated the facts that oil went down b/c demand is down. The drop from $147 was o nthe same day of June report numbers showing decereased demand for 8 staight months in the US and globallly. McCain must distort all the facts as he kas no cohernet and logocal policies. Obama's attack today was good as he stated McCain switched on drilling and got a big increase in oil contributions to his campaign. McCain is "drill here drill now". He neglects that the amount hte high estimates of new production bring are less than simple conservation would bring now! The big question which McCain and the drill people can;t answer is if demand is down for 8 months in a row in the uS and globally why is oil up 40% over that time. It's speculation! They also neglect the commodity rule deregulations that allow buying at as little as 5% of capital(which is 20X margin) on a oil furues order. It should be like the regular stock market on 2X margin.
"Matt J.H. said:
The talk on this site of his demise is over the top and not based in reality. Even the Kerry campaign lost by just 3 points and Kerry was a truly uninspiring candidate.
It wasn't just that Kerry was an uninspiring technocrat, it was that he faced a steep uphill struggle.
1. The country was still in shock from 9-11. The war was not such an obvious failure and disaster as it later became.
Fundamentally, the nation wanted to "trust Bush." People were already unhappy with his leadership, but hoped that the narrow outcome of the election (very narrow for an incumbent -- compare 1984) would convince Bush to "reach out more."
Well, his head immediately "expanded 12 sizes that day" to paraphrase Dr. Suess. And acting as if he'd won a Reagan style landslide, he introduced his Social Security Privatization scheme. The rest is history.
2. Kerry had opted in to campaign financing, so during the summer lull between the time he clinched the nomination and the time he was officially nominated he had NO money for ads of any kind.
That's when Bush nailed him with the Swift-boat attacks. Kerry was a sitting duck because he lacked the money to respond. (He has commented recently on that himself).
Obama isn't a sitting target because he has plenty of money to fight back.
It looks like this new ad attacking McCain is going to be his fight-back wedge ad.
He needs to get these ads out in every battle-ground state over the next couple of weeks. And he needs to have as much media attention talking about his new ads as possible.
His speech on energy is also a major move to preempt the McCain line of attack that he's got no energy plan except telling people to inflate their ties.
Ben,
Obama will attack on issues. McCain is attacking on petty stuff, character assassination, and coded language to appeal to the lowest common denominator.
The difference is Obama can win on the issues and McCain can't. McCain's only chance to be close is to keep the issues out of it.
Daniel said...
Just went onto Obama's website blog and did the same with McCain. The McCain supporters are fired up and ready for war. The Obama supporters feel that Barack should take the high road, not act like the 'schoolyard' bully McCain.
Danny, I just visited the blog, They arent talking at all about politics. It's all about his birthday. I don't know if you are referring to a different blog or not.
Obama's speeches are tailored to people who are ALREADY going to vote for him. When is he going to start showing America he can take on McCain (e.g., knife fight comment) and when is he going to tailor his message to the 90 - 100 IQ Club that only comprehends quick sound bites and guys who show some down and dirty muscle.
This statement is spot on. His speeches and stump speech is totally for his committed base. He needs to go on the attack, relentless attack, and change his stump speech for swing voters. Less Harvard, more Kansas. His base is solid, the change message has been sold, no go on offense.
These polls are so not concerning. Obama is perfect shape. Obama is still defending only really defending 1 state from 2004 MI. McCain is defending 11 and doesn't have the money or will to defend them all. He is not willing to do anything in IN, NC, MT, ND, SD, AK. IN is going to Obama out of McCain arrogance
OTF, The national trackers now have the race near even. The state polling will reflect this move and Obama will be doing worse than last week. I would suggest MI,OH,CO are dead even if the election were held today. Obama is not doing well, he has been on Defense the entire month of July, and he needs to change tactics.
He cannot be stubborn, he has lost support. He must analyze why and adjust. He claims the McCain camp has used "Distractions." Yes they have, and they have worked as intended. Now you must start causing the McCain camp some distractions. This is no longer the friendly terrain of Illinois. People are unsure of his leadership and by not responding to vicious attacks, he is not inspiring confidence. He must go on offense.
You do realize that McCain and the Republicans realize that they can't win on the issues. Everyone of their pundits admots that they have to make it about Obama and they do it by slash and burn, lies, and distortions. McCains last ads especially the troops ad were blatant lies even proven wrong by the DOD.
Some of you Obama supporters are naive. It does not matter that the McCain camp is lying, guess what, nobody cares. Bush lied his ass off for 2 straight campaigns and won. Lying works really well.
Being honest and trustworthy, not taking the low road and all that stuff. It sounds great, but when the other side is willing to lie cheat and steal, you had better get your hands dirty. You can't help a soul with your integrity if you lose. As much as i wished Americans never fell for this crap, it works. So Obama is going to have to play the game whether he likes it or not.
"Change you can believe in" needs to become "Close your eyes, this is gonna be messy"
Early in the primaries Clinton got in some good hits on Obama and he just took them quietly. Later he started hitting back, quickly and effectively. The Wisconsin "isn't 18 debates enough" ad was an excellent and effective comeback.
Obama knows how to hit back. The silence tells me he's got some good stuff on McCain coming, just waiting for the right time.
Wimpy,
Obama coasted many times in the primaries and the Clinton's were treating him with kid gloves. Well, the gloves are off and Obama must adjust. Its time to find a message and drive it home. No more coasting.
Virginia Conservative said...
Obama's only energy "plan" is to have us check the pressure on our tires.
August 4, 2008 7:05 PM
astonishing. To make a comment like that
You are either
A) Colossally ignorant and misinformed
B) Wilfully dishonest and fundamentally sleazy
C) One of the McCain trolls spreading ignorance like manure in a pig farm
D) All Of The Above
After such idiocy and/or lies, NOTHING you say can be taken seriously. Slink away to drudge and politico and realclear...this site is for people who are sentient and at least a little bit honest.
To NC moderate, the AZ Zogby poll you cited was a worthless online interactive poll from mid-July.
Today's national Zogby poll was a regular nationwide telephone poll and it shows McCain ahead by one (a gain of 11 points in a month for McCain).
Three polls in the past week have shown McCain ahead nationwide.
"The One" ad on YouTube spoofing Obama's messiah complex is the best humorous political ad I've seen. Barack's in for a rough Fall.
"Announcer VO: Every time you fill your tank, the oil companies fill their pockets.
Now Big Oil’s filling John McCain’s campaign with 2 million dollars in contributions.
One thing that I never understand is getting into a tit-for-tat argument over corporate campaign contributions when both candidate's are in the pockets of some really hated industries. Obama makes the Big Oil charge, despite actually voting for the Bush/Cheney energy bill. McCain can respond with Obama being in the pockets of Big Ethanol (IA/IL being the largest two corn producers). But the wild card is Wall Street; the discrepancy in the donations is staggering.
My prediction: Right now the enemy is Big Oil, but because of demand destruction and a strengthening dollar, oil will be approximately $100/bbl by October. However, we're going to start seeing the next act of the credit crunch real soon (say, in about a month when 3-5% of college students don't enroll because the student loan market is frozen); Main Street will want blood.
Lo and Behold, who, by far, is in the pocket of Wall Street?
Wow...after two months of reading this blog daily I am proud to post my first post! This site is like crack for political election junkies.
Interesting article in todays NY times (hope i am not duplicating anybody). Wonder if these statistics have been entered into the polling models already.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/05/us/politics/05flip.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
Relax people. Just as you could argue that Obama lost a 9 point lead in the Gallup tracking, you could equally argue that since then he has gained 3 points in the Gallup tracking in the past two days.
My suspicion was that McCain would get a short term bump from his negative campaigning but that in the long term it would hurt him. It could be a blip but I wonder whether Obama's upward movement in the Gallup tracker is a sign of that. Let's wait to see how the trackers act this week. If Obama reestablishes a 4 point lead, the McCain camp are in big trouble.
As for the state polls today, they are all in safe states apart from Florida. Let's wait to see some state polls taken now that McCain's smear tactics have been exposed.
Obama is a lover, not a fighter.
Well Brian... I hope he loves a good dog too, makes his promise come true to his daughter and feeds that pup good nutritious biscuits.
Oh and uh ...
Dear Mule Rider:
How nice that you dropped in to offer your special services to help clean up 'round Nate's site.
You said @ August 4, 2008 6:28 PM :"Barack Obama looks seriously constipated in this ad to the left...someone please pull the turd out of his butt."
By that comment alone, it stands to reason, you seem to be the turd specialist hereabout. Why ask someone else to do your specialty work for you? Pull that "turd" out of Obama's ass by your lonesome. Oh and watch yer step, there's a brand new steamin' load I squeezed right behind ya' there... Woof! Woof!
Come on by and visit some time.
- Dog_Knows -
.
Geez Louise! We're just noticing that the race is tightening?
Over the past seven days, Obama's RCP daily average lead has been cut in half (5.0 to 2.3) and the margin between Obama and McCain in at least one prediction market has dropped from 32 points to a (still respectable) 22 points (64.1 over 31.7 vs. 59.6 over 36.9).
I still think that none of this means very much at this stage. Remember that the typical voter who will decide this election has yet to focus on the race and is getting most of her/his information about it from (maybe) a few minutes of "Evening News," a quick glance at the headlines in their daily paper (or worse, a tabloid), maybe a view or two of a News website during the day on their Homepage and from friends and co-workers ("Did you hear that Obama is a Muslim and is tight with Paris Hilton?").
My personal approach, which has been reasonably predictive over time, is to pay virtually no attention to state polls until the September (small sample sizes, lousy samples, divergent and/or questionable models), but to look at the national polls as providing an indication of the general contours of the race that will take firm up into actual shapes in the Battleground States in September and October. Shifts suggested by movement in the national numbers usually show up in state polls as August wanes and September begins.
What does this mean for me regarding this election (I'm not suggesting it should mean anything for you, it's just my view)? Not much yet, but if there's "good news," it's good news for McCain and not Obama. It means that the themes that McCain is hitting have begun to get the attention of voters and it means that Obama had better start hitting back and hard (OMG, he should ask himself, what would Hillary be doing to Johnny Mac right about now? Answer: she'd have a hot poker so far up his...but that's not printable here...)
My bottom line remains that Obama will win a very close popular and electoral vote contest (think of Ronald Reagan's 1980 50.7% of the vote without John Anderson to skew the electoral votes). In order to do this he has to forget about the 50 state or whatever "strategy," focus on holding onto Kerry's states, especially MI and PA, and then work like heck to pick up IA, CO and NM (= 273 EV's).
Obama’s decline in the polls (Zogby, Ras, State) cannot be attributed simply “negative” campaigning that will backfire on McCain. I hear that a lot from democrat pundits and posters who desperately want McCain to stop exposing Obama as the man of empty rhetoric and deep-seated liberal convictions who has chosen political expediency over principle in order to get elected that he is.
Obama is losing ground because he has abandoned his core principles and shown himself to be just another politician and not the Mecca or Messiah of Hope that he sought to portray himself as.
While i have only heard the reports on POTS apparently Obama in the Zogby poll suffered mass defections among the youth vote. This group apparently has been put off by Obama changing course on the issues that the care most about (the War and FISA), but I suspect also secondarily by his refusal to come up with a real solution to the gas crisis. Young people have les disposable income and feel the pinch at the pump more acutely than other age cohorts.
The other thing that has taken its toll is McCain’s brilliant use of the Paris Hilton ad to define Obama as a simply another celebrity. By doing so he has neutralized one of Obama’s biggest advantages: his mass appeal. Now those big rallies, and most particularly the Rally in Denver, will be viewed through another prism and with suspicion.
Obama is unlikely to benefit much from his convention. His message of hope is really a very negative message about how bad things are right now, so let’s hope I can make them better for you.
I agree with Nate that Obama had better pick his VEEP soon. He needs to do something to change the vector his campaign is on.
We have reached the inflection point I described last week.
As a McCain supporter my favorite choice for Obama’s VP would be Gore! People want gas, they don’t want to go Green. That is why the whole green convention thing in Denver will attract so much ridicule. I wonder of the Dems are already taking pains to tamp that down. The problem for them is that Environmentalism has become the secular religion of the Party. Obama must be feeling terribly boxed in on energy right now. He is going to really need to start tap dancing. Calling Mr. Bojangles!
****
Matt JH and Cugel: Obama cannot go too harshly negative it will ruin his brand, what’s left of it. Cugel, you need to go back on your meds! Calm down! Your strategy will destroy Obama. What can he attack on? Big oil? Same anti-capitalist, populist BS has been a loser for years. They may be nasty oil companies, but they are our nasty oil companies! It sounds good for a moment to attack them, but that is not a solution to the energy crisis. We want them to find more oil, not to punish them. Obama must be careful not to be anti-capitalist in his rhetoric, many of us fear he may be a crypto-socialist as it is.
***
I think the Olympics will be a bad period for Obama. Nationalism ought to rise among the people and Obama is a bit too much of a one-worlder to benefit from it. Besides don’t you think even at his age, McCain, had he not been tortured in Vietnam, could throw a shot put further than Obama?
I loved the stories last week that Obama was too thin to be President. As I said yesterday, Obama looks like he could be blown away in the wind; McCain could stand up to a gale on a carrier deck.
Obama would be better than McCain as an underwear model, but do we really need this in a president? In this case, "young vs. old" could also be read as "weak vs. strong," in which case it flips to McCain's advantage, as we are selecting a commander-in-chief, and not the star of a commercial.
***
Ben--McCain has a great shot at MI. It is the home of the internal combustion engine, it is a state with unpopular Democrat Governor. Obama’s reluctance to find us more oil here at home will hurt him more in MI than anywhere else. Why, Ben, do you think it will be hard for McCain to win there? It is THE tipping point state this year. FL and OH are already in McCain’s camp, along with VA, you just can’t see it yet. Calling Governor Bradley!
***
Nancy Pelosi said on the Sunday talk shows that she would not want anymore drilling here in the US because “we have a world to save”. Good stuff for the Republican attack machine!
***
Zogby’s Poll Should be all the more worrisome b/c he has traditionally shown a Democrat bias. Worse as BJB points out, McCain biggest gains have come in the West and the central US: The Battlegrounds. As these national polls start moving towards McCain, expect to see state polls follow over the next week. Including CO and NV and NM.
***
Obama is a very liberal politician. People see that and he will lose.
Obama has no real base other than the far left wing of his party. He runs the risk of alienating the many gullible people who were fooled by his initial message of hope and change by going negative. Again, here is a man who was too clever by a half. Like with drilling and the War.
He would have been better off waiting a few years before running. He could have better prepared himself for this race. What’s up with this “fierce urgency of now”? it sounds like he needs to take a pee or something!
Nobody's going to remember was said this week when we get into September.
Words are short term, images are long term.
Trust Obama's staff. Having said that, it's Tuesday, and I still think picking the veep later this week would be to Obama's advantage. Now is the time, Barack. But hopefully they've already figured it out.
Back when I was a Richardson supporter, I was in awe of Obama's campaign staff. While I could point to all sorts of stuff the Richardson campaign staff was doing wrong, Obama's staff did everything right. To get Obama any kind of chance at all took a heck of a lot of skill.
Let's see what they do in the next three weeks, but I'm not concerned.
Yet.
Hmmm, it looks like the trolls have learned how to register. It's nice to see there are no longer racial epithets, but the overly emotional rants are starting to pollute this forum again. Too bad.
thatmarvelousape...
To your comment "Hmmm, it looks like the trolls have learned how to register. It's nice to see there are no longer racial epithets, but the overly emotional rants are starting to pollute this forum again. Too bad."
Of all the boards I have visited with a bias towards one of the candidates (and this is a pro-Obama board), this is by far the most civil and, more importantly, has the most thoughtful posts pro and con. Learn to ignore the rants; it's better to ignore them than to censor them.
PeteKent:
To your lengthy post and several observations.
Don't be so quick to dis "Green" at the Convention. As long as the Party doesn't do anything silly (admittedly and unfortunately not out of the question), Green plays with IND's and other Swing Voters.
***
Obama has to go negative, but not on Big Oil. His campaign has to get negative on McCain and not repeat the mistakes of Augusts Past by letting personal attacks go unanswered.
***
I think the Olympics are a wash. Yeah, they're patriotic but they're also about youth. As for the "underwear model" stuff, let him who is without a paunch throw the first jockey...
***
You're right about trouble for us in MI, but you also shouldn't forget that there are 300,000 Arab Americans and Muslims registered in the state. You're also right that we should forget about FL and OH. VA, though, is not out of Obama's reach.
***
Re: Pelosi. I think it would be best for Obama if she limits her media exposure to San Francisco and Manhattan between now and election day.
***
I don't know the details of Zogby's polls since I refuse to pay for anything I'll eventually see for free, but I worry that you might be right about CO and NM as national trends from early August generally work there way into Swing Voter attitudes in Battleground States in Late August and Early September. NV isn't realistic for us anyway and we should fuhgeddaboutit.
***
Re the liberal politician. Obama's base is a lot broader than you let on, otherwise he'd be at 33% in the polls.
OTF said "counsellorben, How obtuse can you be. When people talk about their home state in political terms they mean where they were elected official or last held office."
OTF,
I might be obtuse, but I can read. If you had looked at and read this entire page, you would see the column on the right, titled "Resident State."
Please make sure you read all source material before throwing around insults. It boomerangs back on you when you cannot be bothered to review information before attacking others.
I will wait for an apology. I don't expect it, but I will wait for it.
Obama up 47-43 in the Gallup tracker. I wonder whether the Rasmussen tracker will follow suit tomorrow.
Very interesting piece in pollster.com arguing very convincingly against forcing undecideds to choose this early on.
Between "likely voter" models, Party ID models and forcing undecideds, we can account for such dramatic differences as gallup having a 12 point disparity between 2 polls, or Gallup having Obama up 47-43 and Rasmussen pushing a second day of McCain 47-46.
Here is the article: http://www.pollster.com/blogs/why_should_pollsters_cringe_at.php
JohnNYC,
I agree that in general, the comments are phrased more civilly and are less juvenile in nature. However, regular GOP posters have likened Obama to Hitler and just today Peter Kent pushed the big lie (speaking of Nazi techniques) that Obama has pushed himself as the messiah, a meme that was pushed and originated by the Clintons, so that is beyond the pale, civility-wise, however dressed up it may be in civil language. Peter Kent's game is pretty slick if transparent. Do the William Safire trick of attempting to seem reasonable, but the goal is to spin any and all news as gloom and doom for Obama, leavened with enough neutral observations to make the dagger slip in less obviously. Whether Obama is ahead by 15 or down by 1, it is all spelling the end for the street hustler messiah liberal from Chicago, as far as PK is concerned, and let's make sure to drop those slurs and slanders innocently into the posts. Such posts become utterly predictable and disposable.
Any honest poster on here will admit that the relentlessly negative attacks by the McCain campaign, Obama's equivocation on FISA and drilling, and the slavish repetition of McCain talking points by the corporate media (how many reports have you seen telling you that offshore drilling won't even be available for 10 years - that from Bush's department of energy, and will do ZERO to bring down the price now, and, again according to Bush's own energy department, never have more than a "negligible" effect on prices???) have driven Obama down from 50 to 47-46 in the nationals. Depending which poll you choose to believe, McCain is anywhere from 40-47. Both of these are well within margins of error, but I am honest enough to admit that Obama is no more than back to his pre-trip ratings. By the same token, any McCain supporter who is honest needs to be concerned that McCain continues to have a national ceiling of 45-46%. And of course, none of the battleground states have shifted much either way, so the status quo on the EVs still strongly favors Obama, with McCain needing an inside straight of Michigan and Ohio to get the nod.
I do think that if Obama does not hit back more forcefully and regain the narrative, something the MSM is loathe to let him do (see Ron Baum's astonishingly biased "report" on Obama's critique of McCain, leading the report by dissecting Obama) he will be in trouble. But after 3 months of mainly negative press (as confirmed by the study group loved by O"reilly and Hannity of fixed noise), he is still ahead comfortably EV-wise and ahead or tied in the nationals.
That said, if the race looks the way it does now after the conventions, Obama wins...
I still see this as feeling very much like 2 models: Reagan-Carter and Bush-Dukakis, with many more similarities to Reagan-Carter. The three debates will be key. If McCain can come across as affable and at least partially informed (and/or if the media decide to ignore his inevitable gaffes) and, at the same time, Obama turns in a weak and stutter-filled performance like he did when turned on by Gibson and Stephanopolos, then yikes.
If, on the other hand, Obama is the cool, charismatic and knowledgeable one, using humor to deflect, and is obviously not the monster so doggedly painted by the sour grapes express and McCain shows his increasingly evident mean streak and age-related gaps in memory and sentience, it will be game over, ala Reagan in 1980.
It will either be Obama by 6-7 nationally and a 300-400 EV victory or McCain by a point and a 280-258 squeaker.
John NYC--
I appreciate the thoguhtful, considerate reply.
NOW EAT MY SHORTS!
Just kidding!
I wonder about the Muslim vote. Obama's campaign has already dissed Muslim women and his conversion to Christianity makes him an Apostate for whom the penalty is death under Sharia law. I don't think many will be that enthused about him, but compared to the alternative . . . and given his de facto endorsement by Hamas and his clickishness with members of the PLO, he might have a shot.
If Obama can't win CO, NV and NM, he is in a good deal of trouble. Esp if you agree that OH and Fl are not realistic and MI is yet to be nailed down. Right now I would give the election to Obama with 278EVs, but that includes him winning the aforementioned.
VA may be the second biggest tipping point state right now, but I honestly think that is more hype than anything else. It is a conservative state with a lot of miliary folks and people who make their living off the defense industry. barack obama may be a bridge too far for them.
Black turnout is the great imponderable and is Obama's best shot at mixing things up down south. I have my doubts about how enthusiatic the AA pop is for the guy.
As far as Obama's base goes, the more he get defined as a left winger with a history of radical associations, the smaller that will become.
I think we hacve not heard the last of Rev Wright, "Minister" Farakhan, or Bill Ayers.
Michael,
The Messaih meme works b/c Obama has stumbled into it with his pretenstion and his lofty rhetoric that is all about him being the savior of the nation.
I prefer to go with the humble servant.
I suspect McCain will begin to show more consistent leads in the polls now that the country has begun to wake up to the emptiness of the Obama candidacy and how little it actaully offers other than as an antidote to Bush (who BTW is leaving offcie in January).
McCain has taken the high ground on Energy and his strategy won the War, never mind the debate about it.
The Economy remains the only jump ball as far as I am concerned and I think we have just enough time to be able to peek around the corner and spy prosperity by Election Day.
Why then take the chance on Obama?
Michael:
Thanks for the response.
I haven't been posting out here long enough to form opinions on individuals, but I'll keep my eyes open. I don't take much personally when it comes to politics...too many arrows in my back...and I tend to discount or ignore rhetoric like the Messiah stuff. I think it's fair enough to observe that I doubt very much that Obama has Messianic delusions while I also suspect he wishes he could "reword" a few things he's said.
I completely agree with you that Obama has to hit back harder and "regain the narrative" or, as I would put it, not be afraid to go negative on Johnny Mac's a$$.
As for the polls, I think that worrying about daily polling swings at this stage is kind of like being on diets and weighing ourselves twice a day. We'd have no idea what it's telling us and it would drive us crazy.
I think all we can look at at this time are trend lines over a week or so. That's why I remain a fan of RCP. It "averages" a bunch of polls and flawed methodologies without pretending to be all that scientific and it works...or at least it did in 2004 when it nailed the final spread within two tenths of a point. For now, it's an excellent leading indicator of the Prediction Markets and models that try to dissect polling [I'm agnostic on the value of what this web site is trying to do. The author clearly knows what he is doing statswise (I know enough statistics to know what I don't know but also enough not be be fooled), but the jury is out on the validity of the methodology in a national election. I've been tracking his predictions on a daily basis since early July (after he had a chance to work the bugs out of his model) vs. the RCP Daily Average, the Intrade Prediction Markets and an average of 17 Bookies so I'll have a view by the end of the cycle. His calculation of PIE is, however, extremely innovative and I imagine that it has hoisted more than one egocentric pollster on his/her own petard, as the saying goes.)
I also pay virtually no mind to state by state polls until after Labor Day (lousy samples, small sample sizes, flawed prediction models). My view, expressed out here a couple of times, is that the national polls by the end of August give us a sense of the contours of the race, which will fill in at the state level later this month and in early September. By the last two weeks of September, I start to take the polls seriously.
I completely agree with the Reagan analogy and I've been pushing it here and among colleagues and friends. People remember his EV landslide in 1980, but forget that he got it with only 50.7% of the vote and the help of John Anderson. I hope this doesn't follow the Dukakis model, as we're in deep doo doo if it does.
I disagree that Obama will win by 6--7 nationally (but see my comments immediately above, which suggest that neither I nor anyone knows what's going to happen at this time). I think he gets a Reaganesque less than 51% of the vote and wins with around 273 E Votes. If McCain implodes or explodes during one of the debates, then it could be different, but I doubt that will happen, as much as I would like it.
Look forward to more chats over the next three months.
PeteKent
Thanks for the response.
I'll leave Muslim theology to the Imams, but I think that, for the average Arab American with Muslim roots, Obama represents a better alternative than the policies of the last eight years.
Obama doesn't have to carry all three of CO, NM and NV if he takes IA (and, course, holds the Kerry states). I think NV will be a stretch for him.
If the Campaign isn't worried about MI, it should get a brain transplant. There's virtually no way that Obama can win without MI. Even VA, which I agree is definitely in play but is a stretch for Obama, has four less EV's--in fact, if you want to drive yourself nuts and get really paranoid, should Obama hold the Kerry states, but lose MI and win IA, CO, NM and VA, he reaches the magic number of 269 EV's, throwing the mess into the House.
A for the left wing stuff, the only thing that's stuck (and stuck big) so far is the Reverend Wright "stuff." Ayers/Dohrn hasn't stuck yet, but that's what 527's are for :). As for Farrakhan (two r's), they will have to find or credibly fabricate a strong connection.
I do agree with you on Black turnout. It's a big unknown. It was 11%, I believe, of the vote in 04. If it can be driven up to 12 or 13% and Obama gets 98%, it's a BFD. On the other hand, if anything happens to suppress it, he's got a problem.
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