Both daily tracking polls now show Barack Obama moving slightly off his convention peaks. Gallup now has his lead at 6 points -- down from 8 points yesterday -- whereas Rasmussen has it at 3 points, down from 4 points yesterday.
Under typical conditions, we would expect the convention bounce to slightly increase, rather than decrease, as we headed into the weekend after the convention. As such, our model now regards Obama as having a slightly-below-average convention bounce. Obama now leads in the Gallup and Rasmussen trackers by an average of 4.5 points. In the week before the convention began, he had led in those polls by an average of 1.2 points. So, that represents a convention bounce of 3.3 points -- below the over-under number of 6.
On the other hand, there has never before been a circumstance in which the opposing party's VP has been named immediately after the convention, an event which often produces a bounce of its own. If a typical VP bounce is 5 points, and McCain has received that VP bounce by having named Sarah Palin to his ticket, Obama can be regarded as having had an above-average convention bounce (an 8.3-point convention bounce, counteracted by a 5-point McCain VP bounce).
All of this is academic, really, since all of these bounces will fade. I just wanted to emphasize the point that, because our model adjusts for the convention bounce but not the VP bounce, it is probably lowballing Obama's numers a bit at this point. By this time next week, when the GOP has had a convention of its own, we will be in a better position to evaluate the state of the race. I would recommend that you take our numbers with a grain of salt in the interim.
8.31.2008
Today's Polls, 8/31
@ 2:14 PM
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I would recommend that you take our numbers with a grain of salt in the interim.
What are the chances of that happening?
I learned my lesson being an obsessive poll-watcher in '04. Unless one of the candidates starts pulling out double-digit leads in consecutive polls, then the only thing the polls are telling us right now is that this race will be just as close as the last two.
I think it will come down to which campaign has a better GOTV effort, much like '04.
There have only been 2 days of polling since McCain's VP announcement and the tracking polls are 3 day rolling averages so the analysis in the penultimate paragraph (concluding that Obama got an 8.3 convention bounce based on McCain's 5 point VP bounce) is premature. But I'm sure you already knew this... pretty dishonest.
Let´s get a few state polls after the dust has settled.
Palin will lead a McCain surge to victory in November.
Nate isn't being "pretty dishonest", he's just pointing out that we can't really seperate the supposed bounces at this point using only a few national tracking polls. I agree with Alex, state polls are the key to any sort of analysis at this point, and they won't be any good until after all of these different bounce effects have dissipated.
Love your work, check it daily.
I have a serious question. You frequently allude to Obama's superior "ground game", superior organization, implying that he will be better able to register supporters, and get them to the voting both. Why do you think the polling won't account for that? Do you have any data from the past, where polls were in error, due to a candidate having superior organization?
Thanks Nate! I need something to read this morning after having watched the Sunday "talk" shows what the heck is going on.... ? The MSM is simply ignoring what are real quotes about Palin and her support for such things as the bridge to no where... and there is a VP bounce ? Waited for you to post and am going off line as I can't handle reading one thing and seeing/ hearing another on TV
Obama Biden 08
That's because the MSM loves her, cher.
*pats virginia conservative on the head*
I kind of find it funny that Democrats are complaining of MSM coverage. That is rich. The MSM loves Obama. This Democrat even knows that.
FNJ - I would assume it's because the whole notion of a ground game is that much of the work is yet to be done. Obviously, if you have X more volunteers talking up your candidate and registering X more voters / volunteers, the benefits would be cumulative over time.
I agree on the need to see state polls.
The state I most want to see after both Biden and Palin have set in is Florida.
Nate, I wonder if the slight fade in Obama's national numbers might be due to red states getting a little redder....it's the hard right that will most like this pick the most.
I don't think many democrats are complaining about MSM coverage...based on the 72% negative MSM coverage of Obama in the past...I would guess most democrats are just waiting for that same negative aspect to be turned on the new face...and we know they will.
"it's the hard right that will most like this pick the most."
And the "hard right" will win this election for McCain/Palin. He already had his biggest online fundraising haul EVER after Palin was picked. It has electrified the base, and electrified the campaign!
Quick ground-game note: At my Ohio college's convention watching party, an Obama rep told us that "every seven doors knocked is a new vote". Is this figure in line with what you've been working with? Seems pretty optimistic, which is to be expected, but if it's the campaign's standard they could really be looking at some different estimates than us.
FNJ: Various elements of methodology lead to polls under counting "turn out" effects. These include likely voting numbers, landline bias and using weightings from past elections. It is impossible to tell the true effect of organization at this point in the election. If you had the data, you could model some of it, but that is hardly straight forward.
Virginia Con,
The fan boy attitude reenforces many of our preconceptions about conservatives.
So McCain gets his short term Palin bounce and Obama's best polling day ever drops from the average and Obama's lead only goes down by 2 points.
Good news.
If McCain isn't winning by this time next week, it's over for him.
VC - well, if he really got an online haul, he better know how to spend money in 1 week...he loses access to all those funds the day after the convention.
Good God, Ursula Minor,
can you ever post without attacking Nate's motivations? Look around -this site has the lowest EV #s for Obama of any site. Nate is dishonest? Because he notes a 5 point bump is normal when a VP is announced? How is that dishonest? must every GOPPER engaged in personal attacks when they disagree?
Interestingly, the Rasmussen and Gallup polls both show Obama's #s as holding steady, while McCain's inch up. Obama is flirting just South of 50%, a number Bush and Kerry/Gore did not reach in sustained polling in either 2000 or 2004. It will be fascinating to watch, as this is all unprecedented -no map to compare...the polling shows a wash at best among women, with a lot of Hillary supporters offended by the female equivalent of Clarence Thomas being offered as a "well, you'll vote for anything with ovaries, won't you darling" thinking of McCain's impetuous pick. Couple that with the ongoing investigation into Palin in Alaska(if you read the Alaska papers and today's WAPO, this is pretty serious stuff) and the fact of Gustav stepping all over the convention, I expect McCain to get a 2-3 point bump max out of this...we'll probably end up 10 days from now with Obama up 3 nationally, pretty much where he has been the past 3 months if you bracket out the daily noise.
As McCain supporter Charles Krauthammer put it, the pick completely undercuts McCain's strongest argument, Obama's lack of inexperienced. The right-wing columnist described McCain's pick as "near suicide". We shall see.
I had a knee-jerk response originally that Palin was a great pick, but when you actually learn about this creationist, pro-life, pro-gun, pro Pat Buchanan, pro-drilling, global warming ins a myth, 1.5 year governor of a state the size of El Paso, Texas, whose previous gig was mayor of a backwater town of 8,470, it looks, AT BEST, like a wash.
She will get McCain some evangelicals, but lose him just as many pro-choice, pro-environment women. A wash is not what McCain needed...and if Obama is averaging 50-51 to 45 by mid-September, we will know the Palin pick was a disaster. If it is tied on 9/15 through 9/20, the pick will have worked to pick McCain up a couple of points. A big question will be, does Hillary man up and go after Palin, who disagrees with Hillary on every major position. I think she recognizes that if McCain wins, Palin becomes a formidable foe to her as far as being the ovaries candidate in 2012 or 2016 (if McCain makes it that far), so I would imagine she will do her job, but one never knows with the Clintons.
One last thought. Palin's pick will help McCain most in those states he needs help the least, social conservative evangelical heavy places, like the deep South, Utah, Texas, etc...whereas picks like Pawlenty and Romney would help him in states he was hoping to peel away from Obama, like Oho, Michigan , Minnesota, etc...
"All of this is academic, really, since all of these bounces will fade."
Most important sentence of the post.
Oh, and Viet Cong, you're insane. Just thought you should know.
I love you too, rhys.
So much so I'm not responding to your leftist rants anymore.
Excellent post, Michael. Thank you.
FNJ -- On the ground game.
"Why do you think that polling won't account for that?" Pollers use a likely voter model. They guess at who is likely to vote. If your ground game is focused on getting out voters then you are picking up people who are not likely to vote. So you change who is likely to vote from who has voted in the past.
"Do you have any data from the past, where polls were in error, due to candidate having superior organization?" Yes, Bush 04. He turned out evangelical voters by politicizing churchs. In the past evangelicals had voted in much fewer numbers.
The Obama campaign may have guesses at how many people they can turn out based on voter contacts listed in their database. The pollers must make educated guesses based on the information people give them. We get to watch what actually happens when the precincts are reporting.
We still don't have any reason to think that bounces add linearly -- as far as I can tell, your statistical model didn't even address the question. In fact, we have good reason to think they don't (e.g., the news coverage of Palin's announcement displaced coverage of Obama's speech, it wasn't simply added to it).
That said, any deviation of Obama's numbers from the number your model predicts shouldn't be regarded as under- or over-performing relative to the typical convention + VP announcement (+ Republican convention) bounce. There is no typical bounce. This is new territory. Instead, any deviation from your model is just that, a deviation from your model -- a model which doesn't even purport to model overlapping bounces.
My point is, everybody relax. When PeteKent shows up here and posts his typical tripe, ignore him. We'll see how this has all played out after a couple weeks.
This election is becoming a referendum on the intelligence of the American electorate.
I haven't heard a single well-reasoned argument for why Quaylin belongs on McCain's ticket. All the comments boil down to two points: either people thinking she's good because of emotional reactions to her, or people thinking she's good because *other* people will have an emotional reaction to her.
What remains when all the hype washes out is an imperfect candidate on the left who at least chose a VP responsibly to help him govern, and a reckless old man on the right, who lied for months about the importance of experience and then picked someone that no sane person would ever put on a VP ticket, solely to try to win the election.
Will Americans be smart enough to see through the Quaylin gimmick? We'll find out in 60 days.
VCon has been posting tongue-in-cheek ever since the Palin announcement. (My fave was his reminder that Palin hubby is a "champion snowmobile racer!")
This dry understated wit makes me like VCon even more... and I was always a fan :-)
And the "hard right" will win this election for McCain/Palin. He already had his biggest online fundraising haul EVER after Palin was picked. It has electrified the base, and electrified the campaign!
But they wee never going to vote for Obama, they only got more excited at voting for McCain, or at best moved people from undecided to McCain.
on the other hand, choosing Palin almost certainly moves just as many undecides to Obama, and probably moves some chunk of moderates from McCain to Obama. It will take a while for the polls to shake it out, but that's what I see happening when it all sinks in, and people learn about her.
There is no question that Barack Obama was on his way to a big convention bounce.
His Thursday night speech received near universal acclaim and in truth the setting worked well and did not intrude so much on the intimacy of the event as to showcase the man's popularity, contributing to the bandwagon effect (which is a good deal of what the most ephemeral part of the convention bounce is).
What appears to me to have happened was that Governor Palin garnered for the GOP ticket precisely the impressive bounce that Veep Candidates can get, as Nate suggested.
I was in terror of the Gallup number for Saturday and when it came out, Obama had not moved, now he down 2 points. The Obama Bounce is masking the Palin Bounce.
I had no idea she was quite such an arresting creature!
Does anybody think that the effect of this pending hurricane on their convention will increase republican electoral prospects? I'm from Western New York and carefully watched the effect of a devestating October ice storm and how it resulted in the re-election of Repub congressman Tom Reynolds, who was headed towards certain defeat. Headlines and pictures of Reynolds, standing up with local officals promising federal aid for the community completely turned the election. Now we have situation where if Republican elected official show any degree of competency and concern at all compared to the response to hurricane Katrina - it's a net positive to their electoral prospects in the national election.
I know Zogby is a horrible polling source... but since he's really tilted to Dems I find this to be quite telling.
McCain/Palin 47%
Obama/Biden 45%
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews1547.html
It seems that no one "wants" to poll anymore... even Mr. Nate seems to be losing interest in his own website. Any thoughts?
This election is becoming a referendum on the intelligence of the American electorate.
It may well become that.
I think that this election will ultimately come down to turnout among young voters. If they turn out, Obama a will win.
As far as that goes, Palin is a good pick for turning them out, as she is hard-core right wing, and yet she'll probably make it such that McCain will maintain a tie or even a lsight lead as election day nears, spooking the young voters into turning out.
As for your comment about the intelligence of the electorate...I'll merely (and cynically) say that, whoever is elected president, America will have gotten the president it deserves.
Filistro-
I'm being serious. A game-changing pick that's also a run for the base and low information women voters may be enough to push McCain to a victory.
If it had been Pawlenty after that speech Obama made we'd be looking at 1996.
Rhys, the reason she is good for the ticket is that she actually accomplished actual reform in Alaska as governor. The fact that you ignore that only serves to color you as a sexist.
Kudos to Nate for honestly reporting the facts on the latest polls, quite unlike lefties like Rhys.
Many moderate folks read 538 because of the comprehensive nature of the predictions and poll listings, and libeling centrists for having the temerity to discuss Palin without automatically condemning her serves to scare off said moderates like myself.
I know Zogby is a horrible polling source... but since he's really tilted to Dems I find this to be quite telling.
McCain/Palin 47%
Obama/Biden 45%
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews1547.html
It seems that no one "wants" to poll anymore... even Mr. Nate seems to be losing interest in his own website. Any thoughts?
It's hard to say. If, as seems the case by initial reaction, Palin has energized the conservative base, it's possible that that poll reflects a reddening of states that are already red.
We really need some state polls. It will be interesting to see Florida in particular. Palin supported Pat Buchanan for president both in 1996 and in 2000.
Rhys, how did you obtain your ability to pierce the heart of fallacious arguments with such precision?
virginia conservative -
Do candidate positions on critical national and international issues matter to conservatives? I really would like to know, because it seems that hard-right fundamentalist ideology trumps both knowledge of important issues and competence in your camp.
Don't you people care about sound governance of a country in economic trouble with international challenges? If so, one would think that you'd want to know more about Palin's understanding of the issues and her qualifications to serve as President before going heads over heels for her. Dontcha think?
Is this a site for people with some knowledge of or interest in polling? I mean, that's why I read it. So what is Virginia Conservative doing here? All political opinions aside, this is a complete dolt who has evidently infested as many sites as possible to add nothing but exclamation points.
@DarienCrow.
Zogby's useless. But just for the hell of it...
if you drill into it you get the following bit
Total Dems - GOPers - Indies
Obama 44% - 85% - 4% - 39%
McCain 43% - 8% - 87% - 33%
There are 40% dems, 30% Ind, 30% Reps at the moment. Using these numbers you actually get percentages of 46.9% Obama, 39.2% McCain. Adding in their estimate of GOP swinging to 92% McCain/Palin, his numbers go up to 40.7
Those numbers of his are far closer if you assume 33% each for Dem & Rep, but that simply isn't true.
I go back to my first part - Zogby's useless. If not, those are extremely encouraging numbers for Obama.
bryen193, if promising help and having his picture taken in the disaster area will win McCain more votes I think it will mostly help in those Gulf states. Which he will probably win anyway.
You know how you can tell someone is full of hot air? They don't respond when you point out things they are flatout wrong about.
That the selection of Ms. Palin has resulted in as little bounce as it has is - to me - indicative of the strategic mistake McCain has made in his VP choice.
When the dust clears, Palin is only going to appeal to hard social conservatives while turning off many moderates and the vast majority of HRC loyalists. It was a bad choice.
Palin does bring more excitement to the McCain ticket as well as evangelical support but on the other hand she also motivating the left fight harder to keep an evangelical out of office.
@rhys
Will Americans be smart enough to see through the Quaylin gimmick?
I think so. Remember Andrew Sullivan's summary of the first Palin polling ---
"among the critical undecideds, the Palin pick made only 6 percent more likely to vote for McCain; and it made 31 percent less likely to vote for him. ... More to the point: among undecideds, 59 percent said Palin was unready to be president. Only 6 percent said she was."
Most people are seeing right through this cheap gimmick, and even before the novelty has worn off!
While we were all looking Over There... "Look! Look at the shiny thing!"... something really interesting has been happening Over Here.
See what I mean? The Obama-Biden ticket has suddenly, magically acquired gravitas. It no longer looks new and risky. O'Biden now looks thoughtful, measured, serious and presidential. It looks ...safe, in perilous times.
Meanwhile over there in the other tent, ladies and germs, we have the Ultimate Dog and Pony Show! Step right this way, don't trip over the power cords ma'am, and mind that bit of mess in the dust where somebody threw up their corn dog... over there for your viewing pleasure we have, together for the first time in almost half a century, the original Daddy Warbucks and Little Orphan Annie!
I think McCain, unselfishly putting country first, has insured that our days of razor-thin majorities are over. President Obama, thankfully, is going to have a very strong mandate to help him get things done.
Actually, according to Pollster's analysis of Zogby, they tend to skew toward GOP. That being the case, we can expect larger than predicted wins for Obama in MO, AR, NC, SC, GA, OH and IN.
Also, I think that it will be interesting to see how much of Obama's bounce actually does fade. The majority of his uptick occurred immediately after Hillary and Bill's speeches, targeted at Clinton supporters. I think it's unlikely that Democrats who were relieved by those speeches and decided to support Obama as a result will erode at the rate that Independents will.
The Obama bounce was probably in the 4.5 - 5% range, slightly underperforming but not dramatically so. The Palin bounce will probably take effect on Monday and Tuesday after this weekend's morning news programs. So by Monday, the 8th, we are back at either a tie or an Obama + 1 lead in the national polls.
Obama did not get the 6 point bump since his speech was not as powerful as the one he gave in 2004 although it would be unfair to expect that lightning would strike twice.
The Zogby poll is pretty crappy since does that poll have Obama up 8 in NC? There is 0% chance that McCain can be leading in the national polls but losing by that margin in NC. Incidentally, the Biden pick looks bad in retrospect. Obama should have gone with his gut and picked Kaine, Sebilius or Bayh (or especially, Clinton) for VP.
The experience meme is strong but in the absence of a blunder, it is not quite enough (see Clinton, 2008).
What this does mean is that OH will not be the tipping point state this election but CO, VA, NH and MI will. Whoever wins 3 of 4, wins the election.
"Rhys, the reason she is good for the ticket is that she actually accomplished actual reform in Alaska as governor. The fact that you ignore that only serves to color you as a sexist."
McCain has time and again stated that he wanted someone who's ready to take over, that experience was absolutely mandatory.
Suddenly he throws that out the window and picks someone with 1.5 years experience.
The sheer hypocrisy of this is what makes it so clear that he's picked her purely for the election and not for governing afterwards.
That the selection of Ms. Palin has resulted in as little bounce as it has is - to me - indicative of the strategic mistake McCain has made in his VP choice.
Agreed, Lisa.
As blatant a gender pander as this pick was, the effects of it were likely to be strongest immediately. Looks like it was strong enough to halt Obama's convention bounce, but now we see where things go from here.
jakam said...
whoever is elected president, America will have gotten the president it deserves.
Bingo!
What sickens me the most was that the Palin choice was not for the good of country but for the campaign.
Geoff said...
Rhys, the reason she is good for the ticket is that she actually accomplished actual reform in Alaska as governor. The fact that you ignore that only serves to color you as a sexist.
By all means, regale us with some of this actual reform she made as Alaska governor.
The bridge to nowhere was actually supported by her: the legislature killed it. All of the anti-corruption stuff she did while running for governor: strangely, once she became governor, she started supporting Ted Stevens.
So far as I know, her actual accomplisments as governor are:
1. Raised taxes.
2. Prevented the oil companies from making their own oil pipeline, giving preference to a Canadian company instead.
3. Fired the "top cop" because he wouldn't fire her ex-brother in law.
Did I miss anything?
In terms of the Zogby poll, I expect that the people who call themselves Republicans will go up 2-3% because of the Palin pick. There were a lot of fence-sitters and nominal Republicans who were waiting to see if McCain would stick it to his party again. He didn't so I expect the % to narrow to 39% Dem, 34% Rep, 27% independent by the end of next month.
Colorado liberal, are you being serious? Substitute Obama for Palin and the same questions need to be asked of liberals. Obama is qualified to be president? On what grounds? Because he's been campaigning for 16 months now after only serving the U.S. Senate for 2 years? Because he was a street organizer? What exactly qualifies him to be presiedent, not VP, but president? Be specific, don't copy Obama's style.
Palin has 2 impending scandals. McCain did not vett her well. McCain rolled the dice and hit crapped out.
If it had been Pawlenty after that speech Obama made we'd be looking at 1996.
We still are, VC, because the Palin glow will fade for all but the hardest-core Republican base, and the swing moderates McCain needs are going to be increasingly alienated by her.
And, unlike 2004, the Obama GOTV effort will prevail over the evangelical GOTV effort, which is why his campaign remains so serenely confident.
But you just keep on keepin' on. Enjoy the moment...
So much for the erect penis formation on the super-tracker. Would be nice if we could really isolate the componnts.
Don't think much state polling info is going to be valid until we're post-conventions, so the echo chamber will have to operate with less info than normal, relying mostly on the trackers for insight.
Must just drive the libs (more) insane that Nate thinks the VP bounce was 5 points for the Repubs and <0 for the Dems. Yeah, yeah, stupid uninformed voters. Such a convenient excuse.
I agree with MN Moderate and Adam.
The Zogby polls are horrible and uncredible.
And Obama leads 39-32 with indies?.
Nate & Company -
Don't be surprised if tracking poll results for this weekend look worse for Obama than we would normally expect.
The reason? It's Labor Day weekend, and most people under age 35 are out of the house enjoying their final summer weekend, or travelling on vacation. These polls under-sample the cellphone crowd to begin with as they randomly dial landline phones. Geoff Garin explained this to me last week in Denver at a panel. So, older demos who are shut in at home will be easier to reach this weekend by the pollsters.
I think polls in general undersample the 1st-time voters and young demos, even without the noise of a holidy weekend. This weekened will just further under-report Obama's support. I know it's a legitimate concern in the polling community since I heard it from the horses' mouths last week in the convention city.
jakam,
As her political ideology becomes better known, Palin will likely turn away more voters than she'll draw to the ticket, don't you think? I really don't understand what McCain's advisers were thinking.
colorado liberal,
not caring about good governance would seem to fit well with the current state of the gop
The Bush/Cheney/Rove/McCain gop is not interested in operating government efficiently or well -- they are interested in shutting down government services and handing out contracts to do the work. Even then, doing it well is not the goal. The goal is enriching people at taxpayer expense and creating a hugely lucrative consulting position for themselves with these companies when they leave office.
"Palin will lead a McCain surge to victory in November."
-Virginia Conservative
C'mon man. You're better than this. Later on you give more elucidation, but is a mindless waste of a post.
On a different tack, it's still in "National Enquirer Rumor" stage, but as we've seen with the "Obama is a Muslim" rumor, rumors have power with idiots. So what effect do you think the "Palin's baby is actually her granddaughter" will have? Or how about the "She bankrupted her small town through mismanagement before becoming governor" story, which is definitively true?
Palin is two weeks of excitement, followed by two months of sober reflection that will end poorly for the GOP. They've scuttled McCain's only argument, and are once again trying to take Barack's own change theme away.
The polls are definitely going down, I'm betting Gallup will be aorund +3 tomorrow, and stay between O+1 and O+3 until something important happens, such as a debate or more vetting on Palin.
"Rhys, the reason she is good for the ticket is that she actually accomplished actual reform in Alaska as governor."
Not from what I've heard.
Even if she did -- it's not enough experience to be VP to a 72-year-old guy with a history of cancer.
Anyone who thinks a lightweight like Sarah Palin is going to 'reform' the GOP is laughably self-delusional.
"The fact that you ignore that only serves to color you as a sexist."
Unqualified is unqualified, whether she's male or female.
The fact that you ignore her lack of qualifications on the national/international scene and keep screaming 'sexist' because you apparently think women shouldn't be subject to the same scrutiny as men proves that YOU are sexist.
"Obama did not get the 6 point bump since his speech was not as powerful as the one he gave in 2004 although it would be unfair to expect that lightning would strike twice."
I think he got the 6 point bounce alright. If you look, his numbers have stayed steady. What's changed is that Palin has pushed some undecideds towards the GOP. So Obama bounced 6: Palin has bounced perhaps 2, 2.5. Will that last? I tend to think the Obama bounce will be longer lasting, and that the GOP convention will get both fewer watchers, and a lower bounce than the Dem convention.
Bush, Cheney, Schwarzenegger - none are speaking. Now as much as I dislike Bush & Cheney, lack of top line speeches is going to limit their bounce.
I expect that the Palin bounce will continue for a few more days.
I am not sure what impact Gustav is having. The Networks seemed almost obsessed with the story and do not seem to be covering the campaign much at all. The Sunday shows did, but the news feed from the Cable Stations is all Gustav all the time. Since I think weather stories, esp. at the stage this one is in, are innately boring.
I do not think that McCain-Palin will suffer badly from this. It almost gives the campaign some cover while they smooth out any rough edges and hone message discipline.
Both sides are positioning themselves with assistance offers. It all seems a little craven to me.
"Colorado liberal, are you being serious? Substitute Obama for Palin and the same questions need to be asked of liberals. Obama is qualified to be president? On what grounds? Because he's been campaigning for 16 months now after only serving the U.S. Senate for 2 years? Because he was a street organizer? What exactly qualifies him to be presiedent, not VP, but president? Be specific, don't copy Obama's style."
Irrelevant. He has a mandate from over 18 million voters who have decided he has enough experience for them.
Palin has a mandate from 1 nutter.
As her political ideology becomes better known, Palin will likely turn away more voters than she'll draw to the ticket, don't you think? I really don't understand what McCain's advisers were thinking.
I do. I live in the upper midwest, and even conservatives are uneasy about McCain's pic from a "ready to be president" POV. He essentially selected a "poster girl for the far right" (and I'm quoting a conservative I know), which plays well initially, but then what? Just since she was announced, there are about 5 different stories about her that have come out that could find their way into ads.
Over the next two weeks the focus of the election is going to turn to the response to Gustav and Hanna.
McCain has acted Presidential in his campaign appearences, Obama has come off as a man running for POTUS.
Huge difference.
Obama is just so damn out of touch with the current situation and those past.
Just another issue that is above his paygrade.
Of two States in play down South Obama can kiss FL and NC goodbye.
An Obama quote while he was in Orlando the day TS Fay hit, "They say FL is the Sunshine State... its okay that you dont have any sunshine for me."
The above isnt exact... the emr weather alerts were coming in every few minutes at the time.
Not the best reference but in 1992 much of Clintons loss in FL can be attributed to his lack of sensitivity regarding Hurricane Andrew.
Enough venting for now.
Future Forecast: Palin cleans Bidens clock at the VP debate.
Nate, your once great site has turned into partisan nonsense. maybe 1 comment in 10 is worth reading, the rest are charges and counter charges based on opinions and counter opinions. No better then Huffington Post or TownHall.com
redickulous
Palin is not cleaning anyone's clock. She will answering questions about her two family scandals.
VCon... I can't believe you're altogether serious, because I suspect you're not just a political junkie. I think you're also a patriot.
And while the selection of Palin may have some brief political upside, I honestly cannot believe you would be comfortable with her as POTUS.
And I believe (all joking aside) that patriotism should trump politics.
Every time.
well, she did sell the guebenatorial jet. another claim to reform
i'm more concerned that she thinks that global warming is not caused by humankind
guess we'd better stick to the polls, but nothing else to talk about on a sunday afternoon
Colorado liberal, are you being serious? Substitute Obama for Palin and the same questions need to be asked of liberals. Obama is qualified to be president? On what grounds? Because he's been campaigning for 16 months now after only serving the U.S. Senate for 2 years? Because he was a street organizer? What exactly qualifies him to be presiedent, not VP, but president? Be specific, don't copy Obama's style.
Andrew Sullivan put it best:
"This isn't just about the number of days Obama or Palin have been in office. Since breaking onto the national stage Obama has given countless print, radio, and television interviews. He has been bombarded with criticism and praise until a sketch of the man could be draw from the stack of clippings. I've only seen a handful of Palin interviews. And I've little to no idea about her judgment or what she thinks about the issues. And I don't know that McCain knows her much better than I do. If voters had found Obama, his experience, or his policies wanting, they had a chance to reject him. They approved. Only McCain has approved of Palin."
5 14 5 5 8!
Here is the danger in Gallup and Rassmussen not publishing daily data. If they published it the standard deviation will go up by the square root of 3 but as a part of meta analysis by 538 and others such data would be better. What the readers of Google have seen last few days are these numbers :1 6 8 8 6 and we feel that today Obama has received a bad news. As I have been posting for the last few days, an approximate Moor Penrose analysis would say something else. It shows that the internals of Gallup each of these days would be roughly like 5 14 5 5 8. So today we have an uptick of 3. Yes it is less reliable because of the smallness of sample but todays results were expected to be low (as I wrote yesterday ) because of the 14 (hillary speech?) we were going to lose today.
"Both sides are positioning themselves with assistance offers. It all seems a little craven to me."
What do we think that McCain now is considering giving his acceptance speech amid the wreckage on thursday?
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0808/13013.html
Filistro, nothing I've seen from her so far leads me to believe she would put the security or well-being of the country at risk.
I think you guys are underestimating her for some reason. You don't get sky high approval ratings and take on your own party's GOP by being an airhead.
Er, "own state GOP".
we should just have an auto filter that deletes all partisan claims and anti-claims - except, perhaps, on a sunday afternoon
Cavtrooper -
I know that GOPers will make the false comparison of Palin to Obama. The facts will show that Obama is far more qualified to be in the White House. Columbia grad and former president of the Harvard Law Review versus a woman with a BA in journalism from U. of Idaho. 8 years in state government for Illinois, a state of 13 million, versus a former mayor of a town of 6,000 and governor for 20 months of a state smaller in population than Fort Worth, Texas. A man who has inspired millions and is a natural leader versus a former beauty queen. A candidate who has been through the rigors of a winning campaign against the most powerful political family in his party, versus a woman who ran against a corrupt Republican establishment in Alaska.
In addition, Obama was not selected by a politician. He won the nomination by earning people's votes. To do that he had to travel to many states, meet with people, ask questions, answer questions, develop plans and policies and convince people to vote for him. He did that.
There is more to experience than years on a job. Obama has the depth, the knowledge, the gravitas to be president, and he has demonstrated that time and time again.
This pick by McCain is a joke and insult to all thinking Americans. The country is up a creek with no paddle if McCain/Palin wins in November.
Reader, Palin's glow will not fade as quickly as you may think. Biden was almost a yawn, ho-hum kind of pick and created virtually no buzz. Debate the reasons for Palin being selected all you want. She has created a buzz that won't fade anytime soon but will rather negate Obama/Biden buzz and turn the election back to where it belongs and that's on the two main candidates. This is when the focus will return to Obama, exactly where his campaign does not want it. When this happens his suit starts appearing emptier just as it did against Hillary towrds the end and McCain before the Dem convention.
Nate;
Interesting as always, grain of salt makes the most sense for now.
Thanks
To the person that said Obama can kiss Florida goodbye...how exactly do you figure Palin plays well in Florida?
pg - please explain "an approximate Moor Penrose analysis"
Palin with either succeed or fail on her own merits. If she gives a great speech on Wednesday and performs well against Biden in the VP Debate then, yes, she will help immeasurably in the upper Midwest and Mountain states. If she does not, well, then there is little harm done since a McCain-Romney or McCain-Pawlenty ticket would probably have lost anyway.
She is certainly no Dan Quayle since the speech she gave on Friday was 10x better than any speech that Dan Quayle gave. She has good communication skills and, if she is a quick learner, most of the doubts will fade since she is in the 2nd slot.
If the Republicans can narrow the gap between them and the Democrats to 4%, they will probably win. If the gap stays at 6% or higher, then the gap is too large to overcome except for a truly unforeseen event.
DaWulf - I think you are exactly right on the convention bounce question...he clearly got the 6 point bounce by Friday's polling...that was counteracted by Palin. I don't think any of it matters in the long run though.
"What sickens me the most was that the Palin choice was not for the good of country but for the campaign."
What sickens me even worse is that Republicans can happily ignore this as if it doesn't matter at all, after telling us "country first" for months.
Over the next two weeks the focus of the election is going to turn to the response to Gustav and Hanna.
McCain has acted Presidential in his campaign appearences, Obama has come off as a man running for POTUS.
Huge difference.
This spin is just laughable.
While McCain has done nothing but use the impending disaster for cheap political theater, Obama is mobilizing his volunteers and donors for disaster relief.
McCain is trying to score political points; Obama is trying to help American citizens who may suffer a catastrophe.
You're right; the difference is huge.
VC,
Her record is puff. The bridge to nowhere claim is blatantly false, she supported it as long as AK didn't have to pay for it.
She imposed a windfall profit tax on oil compnaoes in AK. So, if it's good for AK it should be Okat for the rest right? Can't wait to hear the spin on that one.
She proposed a increase in sale tax t ofund her pet project of a new hockey facility.
Her record is being put out there and she has alot to answer for including her ethics investigation and her other impending scandal.
FYI: I take your numbers with a grain of salt all the time, Nathan- VP-bounce or no VP-bounce. Schmehhh!
"McCain has acted Presidential in his campaign appearences"
How is it acting presidential to pick a nobody for VP because he thinks he'll get votes out of it?
Unless you mean acting in the sense of 'portraying yourself as something you are not'.
The scandal is a non-story. It is a creation of the good old boy network in Alaska that's out to get Palin because she wants to reform the corrupt state government.
nj_moderate,
I think the problem with that analysis is that both Democrat and Independent voter levels have increased over the past 4 years. If McCain moves to shore up the Republican base, he'll be pushing away Independent voters at a similar clip. I think it becomes a catch 22 for McCain since his success thus far has been in appealing to the middle while holding on to a majority of Republican supporters.
I realize this florida poll was on thursday, but mason dixon showed obama ahead in florida by 1% pt. how reliable is mason dixon? I'd not seen O ahead in florida before
McCain's pick of Gov. Sarah Palin is just one more example of his exerience and genius.
You guys keep talking about how she will hurt McCain. All the women who are pro choice, environmentalists, gun control zealots, non smokers, liberals, communists, lesbians, gays, code pinks, feminists, college bimbos, Paris wantabes, black women, latino women, asian women, jewish women, and how many other categories you want to push out there.
It means nothing.
McCain knows that married women vote different than single women... and he'll get the married ones and be happy with that.
It's that simple gang.
LOL@ 1 point bounce for McFail/Failin'
And the Republican convention has been neutralized. The religious nutballs and FReeptards had been for weeks praying for rain to ruin Obama's historic speech in front of 84,000 people and 38 million viewers. They should have kept their traps shut. FIRMLY SHUT.
Karma indeed.
DarienCrow,
Did you miss the polls after her selection showing that women disliked the pick and thought she wasn't qualified for the position?
VC,
Keep believing that trooper gate has no legs and the other one goes right to her character as well. Stay tuned!
I'm no statistician, but how can a one or two point shift from one day to the next mean ANYTHING? Wouldn't there always be some normal day to day random wiggle within the margin of errror?
With the questions of Obama's experience fully vetted over the past 19 months with the running of a sterling campaign; Obama having a successful and "presidential" overseas trip; and Obama having an excellent Dem convention - capped with a strong speech in front of 38M + U.S. viewers, Obama has already passed a threshold with only 60+ days to go. The polls already show that he has a credible shot of being POTUS BEFORE the Dem convention. VP picks are supposed to be unseen and unheard for the most part. Aside from the foreign policy benefit, Obama's pick was wise in that the media only spent 3 days or so on Biden because he is a known quantity. McCain's VP pick guarantees that Palin will receive unprecedented media scrutiny for the remaining 60+ days until Nov 4th. The focus will now be off Obama between debates, allowing him to close his case to voters in small forums in the targeted battleground states. Conversely, the continual focus will be on McCain's age and Palin's fitness to be a heartbeat away from the Presidency. McCain/Palin ticket now has to execute PERFECTLY going forward: no margin for error at all. With Palin so new on the national political scene, this is highly unlikely. This is why McCain's VP pick will backfire: it will be seen for the "Politics First" gimmick it really is.
"McCain's pick of Gov. Sarah Palin is just one more example of his exerience and genius."
Here's a simple question that will never get a straight answer from the McCain camp here.
It has been widely reported that McCain's first choice was Lieberman. He was too chickenshit to take him because he needs to pander to the fundies, so instead he picked Palin.
Are there ANY two candidates further apart in terms of position, background or appeal than Lieberman and Palin? Not many.
So here's the question. How can any reasonable, intelligent person claim that McCain made his pick with the best interests of the country at heart, and not out of cynical politics, when he was considering two individuals who are diametrically opposite, and whose only commonality is appealing to a potentially large voting block?
new yorker - absolutely true - but these folks have nothing else to do today
hope someone answers my q about
Moor Penrose analysis
Who won the indie vote?.
Mac or Bama?.
Colorado Liberal, ahh, err, ahhh, well, ummm, ahhh, errr - do you remember that from the Saddleback forum, Dem debates, various interviews? This is the experience you speak of? Would you be happy if your doctor, kids teacher or a grocery clerk answered a question this way? Oh, I know, it's him being thoughtful. Why isn't he up by 10-12 points like the generic Dems are throughout the nation? Is it an evil Bush conspiracy? Afterall, hearing his speech I thought that was who he was running against. I know, McCain/Bush, blah, blah, blah - it isn't flying.
Kevin - I agree totally...it will only take one mistake and the air is out of the balloon. I thought the same about Obama for over a year...when you don't have 20+ years of state and national experience there will always be questions. Obama has gone for 18 months without anything but minor errors...that is what makes him amazing in my book.
So the question, how long can Palin go without one? 60 days? Through a debate? How about an appearance on Sunday morning talk shows? Time will tell, but I wouldn't take the bet on her being as good as Obama.
matt jh:
Nate needs a moderator. That's what it's come to. This will only get worse. Trust me. I've been moderating a political board for two years now, and the discourse level is plummeting fast.
Rhys,
McCain caved to the rightwing as he has been doind changing his positions on many issues. McCain wanted Joe and the Limbaugh's of the party shot it down, there was even talk of a convention fight if he picked a pro choice candidate. Palin was picked to appease the base and a cynical thought that any woman might pull Hillary women.
Obama could have caved to the Clintonians and picked Hillary, but he didn't. He picked someone he could govern with which was his stated qualification. McCain disregarded his stated qualification of someone ready to step in to president.
The McCain people really didn't think this all the way through, did they?
For the next two months we're going to be talking nonstop about Palin's personal life. We're going to be discussing whether she fired the official who refused to fire her sister's abusive former hubby, and whether she gets pedicures and buys expensive shoes in order to use her sexuality for political advancement, and whether the new baby is really her daughter's and the girl was refused an abortion, and why she's actually been caught on tape laughing while shock jocks make crass jokes about a political opponent who is a grandmother with cancer...
Much of it will be untrue and/or unfair. It will be a huge diversion for the country.... a gigantic national gossip-fest. And at the end of it the nation will vote for the campaign that's free of all this gossipy, personality-centered sturm und drang... because (thanks mostly to the Clintons) we are sick, sick, SICK of it.
"Would you be happy if your doctor, kids teacher or a grocery clerk answered a question this way? Oh, I know, it's him being thoughtful."
And you prefer to have your doctor or kids' teacher NOT be thoughtful when asked a difficult question?!
Boggle.
"Why isn't he up by 10-12 points like the generic Dems are throughout the nation?"
Because at least 10% of Americans are ignorant bigots, for starters?
"I know, McCain/Bush, blah, blah, blah - it isn't flying."
Oh but it IS flying, because it's TRUE. And this is just the start, believe me.
Palin plays great in states like mine that are already very red. McCain gave up the chance to go with someone who could pull a couple of swing states.
No Adam... I didn't miss a thing. Wondering why there are no polls in the past few days? This VP choice has turned everything upside down. No one knows how to guage what's happening.
Obama doesn't know what to do. His "plan" blew up in his face. The republican convention will turn into an American telethon for disaster relief... because it's Country First.
The polls show Obama stpped cold and in decline. Palin has been well received and will increase in popularity the more well known she gets.
Mrs. Smith is going to Washington!!
Actually, if you look at the Ras crosstabs at which groups give Palin the most favorable ratings it's:
Men
40-49
$60-80K income
College grad
Sounds like the webporn demographic. Let's see what happens when the drool factor wears thin.
Palin is a joke, even her republican cohorts in Alaska are badmouthing her today. Watching her humiliating speech Friday reminded me of "Legally Blonde III"....what a joke.........
BTW, the "Palin supported Buchanan" story was debunked by Political Punch.
Obama is showing true Presidential timber by using his campaign as a too lto help New Orleans residents with needed financial assistance and volunteers. This impact could be enormous and once again shows the leadership Obama has and how results are what he values most over empty rhetoric.
McCain on the other hand plans to give a speech at the site, no doubt with many residents crumbled dreams near by. This shameless political move will turn off voters across the country and leave the impression of a man who's only interest is political as with the pick of the unqualified Palin.
Once voters have seen both Obama's ready for president VP pick, his historic convention speech with real solutions for the countries problems and his sincerity with helping New Orleans victims, he will solidify the election and win handily on election day.
Unfortunately, the once thought of Maverick will be thought of as more Bush and willing to do anything and say anything to win. Authenticity always wins and McCain has unfortunately given that up.
"Much of it will be untrue and/or unfair. It will be a huge diversion for the country.... a gigantic national gossip-fest."
And all of it brought to you by a selfish, lying asshole who's spent the last three months with the slogan 'Country First'.
I think what people will like most about Sarah Palin is her fresh appeal and the way in which she seems in so many ways to be the anti-Cheney. I think John Kerry suggested this comparison on the talk shows this morning, and as usual, it was as moronic as everything else the man says.
People will like Palin because of her clear stand on the issues and her native intelligence as demonstrated by her command of the energy issue. Do not be fooled, this is a Hockey Mom with a well-thought out set of policy positions. At the same time she is the true Washington outsider – a brand both campaigns have been trying to asset as their own.
Her integrity is vouched for by the very way she came into prominence as a reform and a defeater of entrenched interests. She has done what McCain has always done, but she did it from the vantage point of the executive branch.
Obama, I think, gave a speech about it in 2004.
Truth be told, Obama, the marvelous cadence of his voice aside, has nothing on Ms. Palin. Both are intelligent, ambitious people with an agenda. Both have different points of view on how to accomplish their goals. Obama lacks the record that Governor Palin has. He has not walked the walk or talked the talk.
And in just a few short days she suddenly seems so much more authentic than Barack Obama and has put the spotlight on his inexperience by showcasing her own.
Of great benefit to the GOP is the fact that she is as much a symbol of the advancement of the disadvantaged as Obama is. You want change, here it is! But in a much nicer and more reliable package. Obama’s whole history meme has also been shredded by this pick. It would have been nice for him to have owned the history category, but now he just owns Biden!
I think she will be a force to reckoned with in this campaign.
Her appeal, like Obama’s will transcend her policy prescriptions and she will be benfitted by her life story and circumstances.
Her appeal will be broad because I think it will defy characterization. Yes, socially conservative, but also not an ideologue on foreign policy, she is fiscally conservative, and truly understands energy, but at the same time she is no capitalist tool, having been willing to progressively tax oil companies (a windfall profits tax), while also serving as a reformer, rooting out corruption and riding to victory on her success. If only Obama had stood up the Daley machine just once this would be a fair fight.
There is no doubt now that the Republican Party offers the clearer path to a woman being President than the Dems. This hospitability to the female gender will not be lost on many women, especially younger ones who have just witnessed how the Democrats and their media allies set out to destroy and demonize Hillary Clinton and her supporters.
Sarah Palin will likely be President one day, if McCain is elected. All Hillary Clinton has is the Roll Call vote that the Stalinists within her party forced her to cut short at their ’08 Convention. Who has more to offer women?
A foot having been dipped into it, a river is never quite the same.
As predicted, Palin is already a laughing stock.
Bill Maher's Friday Monologue
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uKULb2JLDJs
Stewart & Colbert ridiculing Sarah Palin
http://www.crooksandliars.com/Media/Download/32320/1/TDS-Colbert-PalinPick.wmv
John McCreep eyeing up Palin's arse
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1RN5xbWtNSU
All this national polling is pretty much useless. All that really matters is what changes are taking place in the real swing states. Does anyone have any guesses how Palin/Convention/etc. will affect Colorado, Ohio, Virginia, Florida, New Hampshire, and Nevada?
I think we really need to wait until post-convention polls in these six states come out.
Obama only needs to win one of OH, CO, VA, FL or both NH and NV to deny McCain any chance.
You mean leftists like Bill Maher, Jon Stewart, and Stephen Colbert don't like McCain's VP pick?
WOW! Who saw THAT coming? I sure didn't! /sarcasm
"I think what people will like most about Sarah Palin is her fresh appeal .... blah blah".
What I like most about Sarah Palin is that the only people who seem to like her are koolaid-drinking Republican morons like you.
Obama will stream roll to victory in November. McCain has to change his slogan from "Country First" to "Politics First".... Palin will be exposed as the extreme right winger she really is and that will be set and match....Obama will win with at least 300 electoral votes and by five million votes....it will be nice to see the good guys win for a change..............
VC - maybe I am missing a reference, but Buchanan himself said she was a supporter in 1996 -
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9rZkJfKoEU
beowulf, your right, Obama is good. Who else could get an entire political movement convinced that associations no longer matter in life. Remember when your parents taught you to not hang out with certain people because of how it may appear to others? Remember the fact that you can be convicted of crimes for being an associate? How come none of these apply to president? Has ideology blinded you to common sense? I'm out! gotta go listen to a Rev Wright sermon, oh I mean I won't be listening just sitting there.
this out today - details on 'troopergate'
I don't know anything about the reliability of the author, but he's working from public records - so it'll come out.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/211769.php
What are Obama and Biden doing to help the effort, exactly? They can't allow McCain to shamelessly grandstand like he did during the Georgia conflict. His career opportunism is staggering. He's one sick fuck.
DarienCrow,
So your response to Palin polling poorly among women is to say that pollsers are so stunned by the selection that they are unable to do their job? I'm not convinced...
Did anyone else get the feeling that McCain was the funny uncle eying his next victim when he introduced Palin? it was creepy....
interesting how commentary here gets more vituperous as the day goes on ...
Palin says she supported Forbes, and only wore a campaign button when Buchanan came to town to make him feel welcome.
I can't believe with everything going right for you guys you are still going to lose. The Palin pick really threw the Democrat Party into chaos.
Oh, and one more thing... I think the most damning critics of Palin are the Alaskans such as this one:
http://mudflats.wordpress.com/2008/08/29/what-is-mccain-thinking-one-alaskans-perspective/
these folks KNOW Palin and aren't reacting to one speech and a brief bio.
"interesting how commentary here gets more vituperous as the day goes on ..."
That's what happens when a so-called war hero who cares about his country picks a joke of a VP and then folks here try to defend it.
the wikipedia entry for palin was edited (30 + favorable pts) right before the announcement of her vp-ship
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/sarah-granger/palins-wikipedia-entry-al_b_122695.html
Catrooper - Actually, my parents taught me not to judge people by those they interact with, but on what the people themselves do. I am quite comfortable with Obama's actions thoughtout his life. I see nothing but a man who has tried to help people. But as you say, I am someone who supports him so that definitely sways me. Just as your affiliations clearly sway you.
"Palin says she supported Forbes, and only wore a campaign button when Buchanan came to town to make him feel welcome."
Sorry Viet Cong... Buchanan himself has said she was one of his 'troopers'.
I think with Palin she will wear well. Contrary to what has been asserted I think she will actually grow to be more appealing and acceptable as the voters come to now who and what she is as opposed the caricatures that both sides are painting.
She has an authenticity about her that makes those who see her, like her and respect her.
More examples: Cokie Roberts and Maria Bartelromo of The Week. Only old man Sam Donaldson was really down on her. George Will finally found something about McCain he liked – his running mate! On George S’s panel alone we had an example of Sarah Palin attracting across demographic groups.
prairiecomm
Here is an explanation you asked for: Gallup applies a low pass filter on the data which as you know is called the 3 day moving average. So when we have data for N consecutive days we have N+2 unknowns. So no unambiguous answer is possible but in real life we can use "the maximum entropy method" or Moor Penrose Generalized inverse (by using SVD) to get the best estimate of the N+2 unknowns.
If this is too complicated for some of us just take my numbers and see whether they are consistent with Obama lead for the last few days or not. So, anyone can agree that this is how things could have happened and what looks like a drop of 2 could actually be a gain of 3!
VC - so after listening to Buchanan's own words you are saying he is lying? Interesting.
He is a little old. His mind is probably bad.
thanks pg
buchanan - how old is he?
On what basis is everyone assuming Obama's bounce will fade? It's dropped one statistically-insignificant point. We could just be seeing noise.
We apply past models to this election at our peril. This is an extraordinarily unique siutation.
I am not saying it will not fade, but nothing at the moment shows that it is or indicates that it will. Whatever "Palin bounce" there may be, that may very well be the extent of the Convention bounce for McCain, since this Convention is rapidly crumbling and there is nothing new for the GOP to sell to the public except Palin. You don't get a bounce simply for holding a Convention, especially one that is likely to be crowded out of media coverage by two hurricanes.
Just consider the reasons behind your belief that Obama will not stay around 48%, and if they are based on your gut, past models, or some empirical evidence.
VC - glad to see you have come around, many democrats have thought the same for awhile...*chuckles*
He's 69. Are you really going to tell me he is going to remember correctly what happened at small rally in Alaska twelve years ago? I doubt it.
PG:
I even have it as more of Obama single night Sat +5 over single night Fri.
Since single night Wed was knock out of the 3-day , and that would have been the first single night reaction to Tuesday's Hillary speech, it even makes sense that Saturday Night was actually a good polling night for Obama.
"He is a little old. His mind is probably bad."
Sorry, Viet Cong, we're talking about Buchanan here, not McCain.
Judging by VC, PeteKent, Cavtrooper and other GOPers here, only BLIND PARTISANSHIP will feign happiness with the Palin pick. In other words, those who already were deadset against Obama and put party ahead of country will sing Sarah's praises.
Clearly, the pick is a national security risk. Most thinking moderates and independents will conclude that at the end of this cycle. I think Palin strengthens the base, but at the expense of alienating a maliable portion of the voting public who MAY have gone for McCain in November, but will now opt for the "safe choice", i.e Obama/Biden. Palin will torpedo McCain's chances due to being a neophyte in foreign affairs, plain and simple.
Beowulf, I never thought Buchanan was the most sane guy in the world. In fact, he is a bit of a nut. Given Palin's position on trade and immigration I really doubt she was a supporter.
I love it!
Buchanan shouldn't be taken seriously because he's "old" at 69, but we should vote McCain into the fucking WHITE HOUSE at 72 -- after he picks a right-wing extremist nobody for a VP.
This is comical!
Rhys, you are on a roll. How many more names can you come up with to insult everyone on this board? Is that how it is to get what you want? Do you feel brave behind the keyboard? Since only bigots are voting against Obama, does that mean you are voting for him to relieve the guilt you have? Do you want affirmative action to reach the highest office now to make you feel better? Ahhh, such a loyal comrade you are. Good little party member. We'll make sure you get a shiny new party badge for all of your kind words.
Where has Obama been during this hurricane? I know, McCain is only down there for publicity even though none of his day is being made public. This is in stark contrast to the great one who is campaigning and promising to have his donors get moblized should this blow up in his face. Way to go, you fill me with confidence Obama.
Wow! I leave the board for a few days and all of a sudden we're getting 400 comments on one thread all about Palin. If nothing else, everyone will know her and have an opinion about her soon enough. It seems to me that the quality of comments has significantly deteriorated lately. All the liberals are out in full force bashing Palin, and the conservatives are being just as bad.
VC - I can understand that...but, saying the Buchanan connection has been "debunked" is just not accurate and that was my only point. You might be right, he might have false memories of the whole thing...but that isn't debunking something, that is just a new story from Palin. I can't find any other references to it with outsiders to support either side.
vc - if buchanan's mind is bad at 69, what does that say about mccain's?
Nice attempt at smear camapaign fillstro, you are sounding very worried.
You redeem within me all the bad things I have said and thought about Obama.
I just spoke to my 78yr old mother, who has NEVER voted for a democrat for president in her life. She says she will NOT vote for McCain. She thinks his stance on abortion and the environment are pretty bad, but was still in his camp because of his experience until he named Palin for VP. She was insulted, she said her jaw just dropped in shock.
McCain might have solidified his evangelicals but where were they going to go any way? He just blew the middle, big time, if he lost long term republicans as my mom!
"He is a little old. His mind is probably bad."
If you think he is a little old...
Todd,
I've been of the same opinion on the basis of the timing of his increase. If he had experienced the majority of his upswing after his own speech I might assume it was going to drop. The fact that his increase coincided with the Clinton speeches tells me that he picked up Democrat support more than Independent and Undecided support. They're unlikely to forgive him for the primary only to suddenly blame him again later.
Are there any women amongst the commenters here who are actually supporting Palin?
I don't believe this pick was meant to fire up the base, since they are not numerous enough to swing the election and are not worth the enormous risk. This was meant to appeal to women, and it not only isn't a success... it's looking to be counterproductive.
One simple reason... most women know what it means to have a 4-month old. And though not all of us have also dealt with a special-needs baby, we know instinctively what that would entail. We know what our own priorities would be.
And let me tell y'all... when it comes to other women, we girls have infallible radar. We can smell a phony a thousand miles away. Trust me on this :-)
Also, regardless of age, our minds tend to embellish things.
Ex., people on 9/11 thinking the plane looked like a missile. That doesn't prove the 9/11 truthers correct, it just means peoples memories are funny like that.
Buchanan probably would LOVE to have a supporter on the VP spot and his mind is embellishing it.
Again, she doesn't hold the Buchananite views on trade, immigration, and foreign policy. So it sounds like bunk, no?
james - yes, isn't it something! must be a veeeery boring sunday afternoon
@VCon and Pete Kent
Love that Sacha Baron Cohen thing you do. Super subtle spoof of mindless trollery, a dazzling display of tongue in cheek FUD, fallacy and sophistry! Keep up the good work guys ...
BTW what's happened to jack hack, jack-he-dim-bulb, jack-he-dick and the gang?
VC,
You are spinning hard. What are Palin's views on trade, immigration, foreign policy? Please cite them form any source and not what you think they are.
"Rhys, you are on a roll. How many more names can you come up with to insult everyone on this board?"
Everyone? Nah. Just the stupid people. Hey, it's not my fault they are stupid?
"Since only bigots are voting against Obama"
Well, see, I never said that. And see, that leaves only two options: you're a liar, or you're too stupid to read simple English. Which is it?
"Do you want affirmative action to reach the highest office now to make you feel better?"
Obama got where he is through hard work, and he was voted onto his ticket. If there's anyone to whom 'affirmative action' applies here, it's the woefully underqualified Republican VP who was chosen for the ticket largely because of her vagina.
"Ahhh, such a loyal comrade you are. Good little party member."
Nope, not a member of any parties. Is that all you got, shitforbrains?
"Again, she doesn't hold the Buchananite views on trade, immigration, and foreign policy. So it sounds like bunk, no?"
Does she even have views on those issues?
Without doubt Palin has shored up the west for McCain, and may even help top tip the pacific northwest and certainly has put MI and PA in play. Suburban Dems and Inds do not cotton to Obama, she will give them a reason to vote McCain and feel good about it.
Scary, huh?
Colorado Liberal,
I agree to a certain extent. Palin does not yet have enough experience to be President. Unless you're assuming McCain drops dead at his inauguration, then she'll be doing the job for a while that probably best prepares you to be President, which obviously is Vice-President. The difference between the Obama/Biden and McCain/Palin tickets is that with Obama/Biden, the experience is at the bottom of the ticket.
I think Nate is doing the best job he can under the extremely unusual circumstances - i.e. convention right after the previous, VP annoucement the day after one convention ended, and a major natural disaster. If McCain has a smaller than expected bounce, is that because of Gustav?
McCain is coming off looking very good and Presidential during this hurricane.
Virginia Conservative said...
"You mean leftists like Bill Maher, Jon Stewart, and Stephen Colbert don't like McCain's VP pick?"
Precisely. They're the finest satirists out there, and Palin is already proving to be a comedy goldmine. Well done, FReeptards. You could've had someone with dexterity and natural charisma like Mike Huckabee. Ah, well. Thank anyway!
I can't wait to see what Lettterman, Leno and Conan come up with for this week. Good times.
BTW, How's FOX News' "The Half Hour News Hour" coming along? I was just getting into it, but haven't seen any new episodes for a while.
stevie314159
I agree. What are your numbers for the rest of the days?
As a Republican, I am pleased with the choice of Sarah Palin. I note that almost everyone is pleased. Democrats and Republicans really like the pick for different reasons. I like it most because she ATTACKED her own party insiders for corruption and she won against the old boy slick politician network. She can ask the question how often, how aggressively, how successfully did Obama attack the old Chicago political network? I do not think Obama has a good answer. I expect the % of republicans for Obama to drop and the youth to ask whether Obama is really going to change the old politics in Washington.
I know what McCain's views are, and I doubt he would pick someone who is an isolationist, protectionist, and immigration restrictionist.
lindak - my 98 year old mom agrees w/ yours.
looks like mccain's going to get in the way of emergencies measures in NO
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/moira-whelan/mccains-disastrous-politi_b_122735.html
VC doesn't seem to worry about facts, beowulf. So the fact that Buchanan himself said she worked for his campaign will probably mean nothing to him.
One reason the repubs get away with lying to their loyal is the loyal are so willing to suspend disbelief.
I've read enough on the internet this weekend to realize that the Palin pick has turned off a number of middle-of-the-road voters. Just like Linda K. wrote, some rock-ribbed Republicans will even be turned off by this pick.
When the meme of national security risk is used against her, it will be game/set/match. Palin is a liability to McCain since it's more than plausible that she will have to assume presidential duties sometime during McCain's first term in office. With her unformed views on foreign affairs plainly transparent, that will be deemed unacceptable by swing voters and be determinative in this election.
Darien Crow wrote:
McCain knows that married women vote different than single women... and he'll get the married ones and be happy with that.
White, married Christian is the quintessential Republican base, as has been documented for a decade.
Palin appeals to the base. That much is clear. But you can't have your cake and eat it, too. You only have one base, and it only can give you 100% at best. You don't get 300% - 100% each for white, married, and Christian.
And there are corollary costs for appealing solely to the base.
Why in god's name would McCain not pick Romney or Ridge, or Hutchinson. Even though i don't like their politics, at least they could be legitimate presidents. Palin?
I don't appreciate putting the country at risk with an individual who even McCain does not know.
If a candidate for president picks an unknown candidate dreadfully unprepared for president, what does that say about his judgement?
I can't fathom seeing her standing next to Joe Biden in the VP debate. The image alone will be stark.
"I know what McCain's views are, and I doubt he would pick someone who is an isolationist, protectionist, and immigration restrictionist."
I'd cut him some slack.. I mean, he just met her.
This age thing is getting old.
Let me ask you Democrats a question.
Is Dianne Feinstein too old?
If you don't know who she is you really should not be talking politics.
If Congress has enough Democrats after the '08 elections to pass sweeping legislation she will STAY as a Senator of California.
If not, she will run for Governor of California and probably win in a walk.
She's currently 75 years old.
VC,
So in a nutshell. You have no clue what her views are, but you say they are not the same as Buchanan's. Hilarious as usual.
OTF-
Tell me the last time a Presidential candidate picked a #2 with views entirely opposite of their own.
I won't believe she was a Buchananite until I see some evidence she was for things like immigration restriction, trade protectionism, and isolationism (extreme steps like withdrawing from the UN, disbanding NATO, etc).
If evidence comes up she actually believes those things and McCain picked her anyway I'll be the first to come on here and pronounce that McCain has lost his marbles.
P.G.:
Right now I have
Thurs 47-42
Fri 46-42
Sat 51-42
to get the 3 day at 48-42
The Wed # dropped was 54-39 so Hillary did a great job.
I would really like to hear what Palin's views on those issues are too...I know her position on drilling and ethics...nothing else (and I really have looked).
Actually Pete, this all makes me feel kind of sad.
John McCain had had an outstanding political career on top of a compelling personal biography... but I fear he will leave this campaign reduced to a national joke and sniggering punch line.
The lust for the presidency is (and always has been) a dangerous affliction.
oh wesley - ta ta
Beowolf:
Aside from abortion and creationism, she has NO OTHER POSITIONS.
See www.ontheissues.org
On troppergate, Palin has little to fear: The story cuts in her favor.
First as Governor the firing was within her prerogative. Second, the guy who was fired was not doing his job.
Third the bother in law was a dangerous sack of s---. He tasered his step son, he rode around in his patrol car drinking beer, and he threatened to kill the Governor’s father. As was said on the cable news, if you want to build an argument against Palin based on this poster child, bring it on.
this is a nothing story
The really sad thing about this is that *MCCAIN* picked her without knowing her views on all these issues!
VC,
Keep spinning. You claimed she didn't hold the views of Buchanan with zero proof. You assumed without knowing.
McCain vetted her for two seconds which goes right to his judgement.
You have zero proof she DOES.
This is just a he-said, she-said case that will go nowhere.
"my parents taught me not to judge people by those they interact with, but on what the people themselves do"
Beowulf, so you don't remember ever hearing the phrase "guilt by association"? WOW! Do you even understand why this is taught? It's because a lot of times our associations, good or bad, tend to have an affect on us and have a tendancy to "rub off" on us. Is it not appropriate to question Obama on his associations? Hmmmm. I was always taught this lesson and thought it was a common teching since time began. I guess when we want a certain person to win an election anything can be tossed aside. It's sad, sad.
Speaking of vetting... nobody from the McCain campaign ever contacted the administrator at the center of the troopergate scandal.
VC,
What are her views on the issues so we can compare them to Buchanan's. Once again cite them and not your speculation.
Virginia Conservative said...
He (Buchanan) is a little old. His mind is probably bad.
August 31, 2008 2:54 PM
He's 2 years younger than McCain.
She said she was a Forbes supporter in 2000, which is about as far from Buchanan as you can get on all three of those issues.
I question VC's and PeteKent's patriotism. To blindly support a candidate, ANY candidate, without knowing anything about the candidate's views on critical issues is the essense of blind partisanship. It is NOT the essense of sound due-diligence to pick a candidate who would best serve the country.
Funny how GOPers who have accused liberals of lack of patriotism while hiding behing flag lapel pins, themselves through their words and deeds prove to be unpatriotic themselves.
Palin endorsed Buchanan when?
WHO CARES?
Obama endorsed Jerimiah Wright for 20 years! That's a fact!
Anyone??
Yeah, really. If we're going to talk about Buchanan I'd like to talk about Wright, Ayers, and Rezko, too.
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