The only two polls out today are the national trackers, and each of them show the race holding steady. Barack Obama maintains an 8-point lead in the Gallup Tracker, and a 4-point lead in Rasmussen's tracking poll.
Today's tracking polls removed interviews from Tuesday -- when voters had had the chance to listen to Michelle Obama's speech from the DNC but little else -- and replaced them with interviews from Friday, when voters could react to the entirety of the DNC, including Barack Obama's speech, but could also react to the selection of Sarah Palin as John McCain's running mate. Our model adjusts for the convention bounce; it does not attempt to correct for the VP bounce, even though there often is one (Joe Biden was an exception).
Since Obama's speech was well received by voters, one can probably assume that his numbers would be slightly higher had John McCain not announced his VP yesterday. On the other hand, the notion that something was gained by limiting Obama's bounce is silly. The convention bounce almost always fades by itself (it would more aptly be described as a convention 'bubble'). Stopping a bounce is a strategy designed to improve one's standing in the FiveThirtyEight.com polling averages for a day or two, rather than one's chances of actually winning the election.
8.30.2008
Today's Polls, 8/30
@ 3:28 PM
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In all honesty, though, if you step on your opponents buzz enough, you win the election.
That said, I think the Obama ground game will be like nothing we've ever seen.
I saw the speech at a watch party with 50 other people in rural New York, in a R+5 district, and most of them were signing up to volunteer.
I don't think there is a way to measure the effect of the grassroots in the polls.
So it appears that this will settle in as a single digit bounce. It gives the Republicans a chance to come out on top if they have a stellar convention. I don't see it happening, but the door is open. Great point on bounces going away on their own, but Kerry never recovered (at least until the debates) from his lack of bounce and a strong Bush bounce.
I take exception to your comment that 'convention bounces always fade' as a means to excuse Obama's flat numbers in the trackers today. Obama's speech should have had at least an ONE DAY bounce after that Thursday night speech, don't ya think?
The simple explanation is the Palin selection completely stole the spotlight from Obama and changed the equation. Palin's speech in Dayton is proof that she is no Quayle or Agnew - sharp, attractive, intelligent, articulate, and portraying a strong western woman brand - WOW. She stopped the Obama train in its tracks and todays polls show it.
Nate, I still don't get your current methodology. Do yo subtract the predicted convention bounce from the daily blue dot and then plot the Loess curve as usual, or did you suspend the normal Loess curve for the duration of the conventions? (The latter is mad, I think - excuse my saying so - but this is what your tracker looks like).
Stopped it in it's tracks may be strong, but it appears the Obama momentum has paused, at least momentarily.
Obama was headed up then...
BAM! Cut him right off with the Hockey Mom!
It looks as if the McCain campaign is definitely playing a guerilla war with the daily polls. This is not irrational, as they must maintain a sense of viability so as to avoid a geuine meltdown.
One question: How it's possible than Obama has "only" a 4 points leads(49-45) in the Rasmussen Tracking when he leads by 13 points amoung women and trails only by 6 amoung men?
I quote Rasmussen:..."Obama currently leads by thirteen points among women while McCain leads by six among men. Among white women, the candidates are essentially even while McCain holds a substantial lead among white men..."
He has a 7 points gender gap leads and he leads only by 4? i don't understand.
Did anyone else feel that Obama was about to run away and hide after this convention? By that I mean get a double digit lead and never look back?
It looks as if the McCain campaign is definitely playing a guerilla war with the daily polls. This is not irrational, as they must maintain a sense of viability so as to avoid a geuine meltdown.
Yes, but his bag of tricks is limited. This week he had the VP selection, next week he has the convention, but then there's nothing else...just the horserace as usual. Because of the immediate VP announcement and then the RNC, we won't get a clear read on whether Hillary's plea for unity really takes for about ten days.
"Kerry destroyed by not having a strong enough convention bounce"
This misses cause and effect. Kerry did not have a strong convention bounce because he was unlikely to win to begin with.
The convention bounce is above all a prognostic tool: it shows how much potential you have. An artificial intervention such as Palin's choice merely reduces the prognostic value but it does not, in and of itself, change the likely outcome of the elections.
(We should say that the "real Obama convention bounce" is underreported so that we should prognosticate a stronger Obama showing than based on the bare convention bounce numbers).
This will have an impact, of course, to the extent that Palin might change the underlying REAL dynamics.
" Did anyone else feel that Obama was about to run away and hide after this convention? By that I mean get a double digit lead and never look back?"
Yes. Thanks to Palin, that never materialized. I know it drives you libs up the walls!
Many McCain supporters, and at times the campaign, have been focused on the trend rather than the situation.
If Obama continues to bounce around between 2 points up and 10 points up for the remainder of the campaign, he wins.
Anyone who thought this would be a runaway election for Obama is completely insane. Even Brit-land called McCain initially.
Remember, people WANT to like McCain--and historically I'd say rightly so as he was once a rational and intelligent person (or so I'd been led to believe).
For a lot of people it's like watching a family member come down with Alzheimer's. It is going to take a lot to accept that the person they loved isn't really there anymore.
"Do You Feel Ready To Be A Heartbeat Away From The Presidency?"
Palin: "Absolutely. Yup, Yup..."
OMFG, McCain has chosen Marge Gunderson to potentially be "A 72 year old heartbeat away from the presidency."
Obama Speech Appealed to Swing Voters
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner conducted a focus group in the swing state of Nevada with undecided voters or weak supporters of either candidate who watched Sen. Barack Obama's speech last night.
Key findings:
After viewing the speech, more than 1-in-4 of these swing voters moved from undecided to supporting Barack Obama or from supporting John McCain to undecided.
Obama achieved gains on every personal attribute tested in this exercise, with the most dramatic movement coming on some of the most important measures in our polling - 'on your side,' 'has what it takes to be President,' and 'will keep America strong.'
In a head-to-head match-up with John McCain on which candidate would better handle a series of issues, Obama again gained ground on every measure, with the most significant movement coming on 'national security,' 'strengthening America's relationships with other countries,' and 'sharing my values.'
I'll say that I am slightly disappointed that McCain's silly play might have put the brakes on Obama's bounce. But 8% is good, and I'll take it. Still waiting to get back into the grove of state polling though once the GOP convention is over.
I'm sure there's gonna be concern trolls spouting the typical "Obama can't break 50%" but no one should really pay attention to that since theoretically (if this were a popularity contest) 49% would win the election when accounting for third parties. The concern trolls should put their concern in John McCain's 46% ceiling.
Slow polling day, slow political news day. College football is kicking off, and that's way more exciting.
Well - I think Sarah Palin's effect in keeping the numbers from running away was good for Obama. Run away numbers would raise expectations too high, and the one thing that is not helpful to Obama's ground game is overinflated expectations. His key demographics tend to stay home unless it seems necessary for them to show up - we saw depressed turn out amongst African Americans toward the end of the primaries, for instance.
Grassroots organizing, and tempered expectations just might win this thing for Obama.
So wait. I'm supposed to feel bad that Obama is only up 8 points? McCain made an incredibly risky move that has vast potential to backfire and all he did with it was stall Obama's movement? Works for me.
Last week this time, the open question was if Obama would come across as ready for the office. Not only did he answer that, but now McCain has the same question on his ticket.
As for her speech, I watched it. It was pleasant enough but it was all about how her husband was a snowmobile racer and how Hillary Clinton rules. Next week, she'll either have to talk about the issues and reveal the extent to which she's a prolifer or talk more about herself to hide her views and make her look more like a lightweight. I wonder which approach she'll take.
Since these polls included votes from Friday shouldn't the real story be the lack of a "Palin bounce" for McCain?
Either way, convention bounces and VP bounces are fairly meaningless in the long run. In an election this close, it won't be until the debates when the numbers start to become cemented.
@ Arnaud: You need to cut the difference in half (or so). Think about if they were tied with men but Obama was ahead by 10% with women--then he would have a 5% lead overall, not 10%.
What the hell does Palin have to do with your Senate choice? You're going to vote for a borderline Socialist and leftist ideologue now because of THAT?
You must really hate women.
One question: How it's possible than Obama has "only" a 4 points leads(49-45) in the Rasmussen Tracking when he leads by 13 points amoung women and trails only by 6 amoung men?
Well, if you average (+13) and (-6), you get +3.5. Then round the number in the direction of women since they slightly outnumber men as voters, and you get +4...exactly what it should be.
" Did anyone else feel that Obama was about to run away and hide after this convention? By that I mean get a double digit lead and never look back?"
"Yes. Thanks to Palin, that never materialized. I know it drives you libs up the walls!"
I'm certainly no liberal, I'm currently a McCainocrat, but I'm waiting for the debates to determine who gets my vote.
The poll shows that the bounce is already gone. Look at the poll three days ago. McCain was up by 1 in Rasmussen and down by one in Gallup.
When the tracker does not move, that means that the day added was the same as the day dropped.
Look at the movement 4 days ago and that us the same movement yesterday. 4 days ago the movement was neutral. That mean yesterday's polling was roughly even. Now that the dust settled, the MSM reaction is positve and. Obama made his "ZERO" gaffe.
Look for Obama to be trailing within a few days.
Obama will be trailing and McCain will be at 50% by mid next week at the earliest. AT worst, he will be tied.
I would've been sweet to see Obama break 50%, in fact, a skeptic like me would have declared the election effectively over. McCain couldn't afford for Obama to be ahead by double digits - it would have destroyed morale with his numbnut supporters and the FReeptards. He had no choice, he had to throw a Hail Mary to distract the MSM with this screwball pick.
McFail/Failin' '08
:: drooling ::
MMmmmmm... poll-l-l-ling updates.
McCain's decision is painfully obvious as pointed out by one of his strategists: "Unless we get a significant slice of Hillary voters we lose. It's really as simple as that."
For months there has been internal turmoil in the McCain camp between the Bush/Rove disciples and other McCain advisers.
The Roveists argued McCain should pursue a Bush 2004 strategy -- mobilize the base, turn them out and win.
McCain and some of his advisers felt that the Bush coalition was "dead" and that he needed to move more to the center and get more Independents to win.
McCain has gone with his instincts. After watching Hillary and Bill's speeches at the convention, it was obvious that Democrats were going to rally to Obama.
McCain needed to do something desperate to change the focus and appeal to women, WITHOUT alienating his base. That eliminated more qualified women such as Kay Hutchinson and apparently Elizabeth Dole (I don't know why).
Obama clearly understands that VP choices never change anything and it's highly unlikely they will in 2008 either. Geraldine Ferraro didn't change anything for Mondale, and Quayle didn't sink Bush I.
That ought to be enough proof for anybody. Democrats tried to make Quayle an issue, but voters didn't care. Despite thinking overwhelmingly that Quayle wasn't qualified, they still voted for Bush.
Same thing here. It doesn't matter whether Palin is qualified or not (she's not). Few minds are going to be changed by this.
The best thing it does is exactly what Nate's article suggests: gives him a leg up among Fundies for raising money and perhaps getting more volunteers.
The base is ALREADY rallied to McCain anyway, but he couldn't afford to alienate them. So, this is perhaps the only pick that could solve both equations: Pick a Fundie conservative, who appeals to the base, while picking a woman who appeals to Independent women.
It's unlikely to work of course. McCain is counting on his convention speech to re-brand himself in mid-race as the "Original Maverick" again.
That's why Obama is going after McCain so hard on the McCain = Bush ads. Republicans universally reject this argument so they flat don't get it.
It isn't aimed at them! It's aimed at Democrats and Democratic women who might be swayed by McCain.
It says "beneath all the glitter of his "Original Maverick" B.S. he's just Bush in drag."
Obama is going to hammer this point between now and the election and that's going to be the key. Not to waver and keep up the attacks, just the way Bush kept up the Swift-boat attacks in 2004 despite every criticism. They worked, because they convinced Republicans.
Obama's ads work because they convince Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents. That's what Obama's focus groups must be telling him. That's why these ads are running. And he's going to keep going with them.
Nothing would destroy morale among the Freeptards. Objective reality does not enter their equation; tough to pop morale with people like that.
VC,
You usually make sense, but today you are just backpedaling. You can't say that Democrats are really afraid of Sarah Palin.
Women aren't dumb enough to vote GOP only because Palin is a woman. She's more to the right than Bush.
Tweedle dee and tweedle dumber are here to spin McCain wishful thinking. McCain was desperate, made a desperate pick and evrybody in the media today is saying as such. The righwing by obligation spin hopelessly. Obama will be ahead in all of the most important swing state and all kerry 2004 statews when the new polling cycle starts post convention the week of Sept 8th.
IA,NM are locks already
NV,CO,OH,VA Obama will have leads
IN will be close
MO will have closed
"Obama will be trailing and McCain will be at 50% by mid next week at the earliest. AT worst, he will be tied."
Quite possible, if a large percentage of swing voters are just now tuning in as Labor Day is over, I'd expect a drop in Obama's numbers as they find out all about Rev. Wright etc. Only time will tell. The primary season was so huge, there may be no one left who hasn't heard all about Rev. Wright etc. already.
Harper said...
"Women aren't dumb enough to vote GOP only because Palin is a woman. She's more to the right than Bush."
What you really mean is...
"Women are dumb enough to vote for Obama even when he's more left than Castro."
What's wrong OTF and Cugel, you don't like the taste of mooseburgers? You are just upset that Palin could kick your a** and still offer you a latte with your arugula salad when you got off the canvas.
Any data on convention bounce impact on the sponsoring State's polls?
It is hard to see how Sarah Palin's reputation for pure conservatism can hold up to scrutiny for long. While Palin upholds the right social values for GOP extremists, she and other Alaskan Republicans are fiscal whores.
Alaska today is essentially a quasi-social democratic welfare state. Its "conservative" politicians have made a regular habit of transferring state operating costs to the federal government. AK pulls out nearly twice as much money as it gives to the Treasury. While Alaska now enjoys a budget surplus, it sits on a Permanent Fund from oil revenues of more than $39 billion from which it doles out $1,000+ to every man, woman and child. A local political scientist has called this syndrome "dependent individualism."
Although the state refuses to levy sales or income taxes on its citizens, residents receive $3,000 more in federal grants than the average American. In a state that fails to pull its own weight, the Bridge to Nowhere (that governor Palin didn't oppose until it was a lost cause!) is just an especially embarrassing example.
The former "Miss Congeniality's" elevation to VP along with McCain's drilling mania might salvage the Alaska's economy and national government subsidies for a time if the Fall election goes their way. However, it will be bad economic news for the rest of us in the lower 48.
For Palin being such a bad choice, there sure is a lot of discussion with her among Democrats and nervousness.
Tell me, who does Biden take her on in the debates without 1) looking like a mean sexist 2)lose the expectations game?
Thank you, thank you for Sarah Palin! And thank you, God, for Obama vs Mcain and Biden vs Palin debates.
VC, an independent need not vote Republican to not "hate women". In fact, social conservatives are abysmal on women's rights, including McCain (who said recently that women just need more education to get better pay, ignoring that educated women are still paid less than similarly qualified men).
You're showing the true colors of your party-- and yourself-- with your trolling.
Virginia Conservative,
You're either 90% fully retarded, or 10% somewhat retarded. I'm not willing to bet on the 10%.
McCain said his running mate would be announced on the exact day and location it was. He didn't step on Obam. But after it became clear Obama would be ahead by double digits, he panicked by choosing a crazy right-wing nutball. Why is it that Pawlenty was scheduled for MTP? And why is it that Romney and Pawlenty have been shitting on McCain since he made the announcment. For fuck's sake, even his own campaign peeps couldn't answer any questions about Palin or their prior relationship. He'd only met her once. It was reckless desperation move, plain and simple.
Amen, VC. Me thinks they protest too much.
Nate: isn't it right to say that since Obama had a 1 point deficit to McCain in the polls going into Monday night, that he actually had a *ten* point "convention" bounce (maybe he had a -2 VP bounce before that).
Coming out of the convention next Saturday, shouldn't McCain have to be up by 1 to have an equivalent bounce? If McCain gets a six point bounce and the polls return to a 2 - 3 point lead for Obama, it'll seem to me Obama won the convetions by four points.
There are several reasons to think that McCain won't see a particularly large Convention bounce.
Gustav will distract a lot of attention. The GOP is running their third-string, since so many of their stars are passing up the RNC. They will be left with religious nut-jobs and 28%-ers that will make the Party seem very out of touch with the mainstream. The media will put delegates on the air that are part of the "idiot choir", and they will say things that the campaign would rather be kept out of public view or said in dog-whistles.
We already know that McCain is a POW. Saying it for four days won't make it more or less true or meaningful. Everyone already knows McCain, so it's not like the DNC where the nation was introduced to Obama. The GOP has already said everything that they are going to say in the Convention, and so far it hasn't gained them much. The base is already in the bag for them, but they can still turn off the undecideds and independents.
All of their smears have already been employed and proven ineffective to the general public. Repeating them more loudly for days on end will just make Republicans look shrill and negative. Just because it is the McCain campaign itself saying these things now won't matter to anyone but the base. And Republican credibility just isn't that strong anymore.
I see the delusionist are out in force today again...
Women won't vote for McCain because of Palin? Sure. Just like they did not vote for Hillary.
Left wing abortion lovers will not vote for McCain, but we know that.
It is the women in the squishy middle, and for them, this stuff is a flip of the coin.
Having a woman makes it vastly more likely they go to McCain.
Let's put it this way, Obama was way ahead among women according to Rasmussen, by 13 points. He was losing by 7 among men.
What if 1 in 20 Obama supporting women change their mind?
That takes 3 points away from Obama and gives it to McCain, which is a 6 point swing.
Now you are suddenly losing.
It takes very little movement in the squishy middle for this pick to change everything.
You all forget that.
Tomorrow, Obama's best single night polling of the year will drop out of the Gallup and Rasmussen 3-day averages -- so 4 poits in Rasmussen and 8 points in Gallup are Obama's maximum post-convention bounce margins.
In 1988, Dukakis stormed out of his convention with a 17-point lead. He ended up losing to Papa Bush by 8 points -- a 25-point swing.
8 points (or 4 in Rasmussen) is not enough of a cushion for Obama in light of history.
Porridgegun - that's brilliant analysis. Best Post Ever!
Women will split up to -10% to +10 for whichever side, and that's generous. So given that it'll be at most 45%-55% for one side or another, let's stop with this "women are/aren't dumb" shit and making blanket insults about their intelligence. Women are probably more intelligent on average than most of the guys who post here.
McCain being a big ol' pander bear with is VP pick is one thing, but anyone who wants to boil women's voting patterns down to a VP pick is as insulting as McCain, so let's give it a rest.
Not likely McCain has a ceiling of about 45% so it`s likely after the gop convention the election will be back to about 45-45.
Sarah palin will hurt McCain in the end, she is way to far right for mainstream America.
She is not just against abortion, she is against birth control even for married couples.She Does not believe in global warming and is in the pocket of big business.
By picking her McCAIN basically said FU to America,all I care about is winning an election.
This woman is absolutely unprepared to be the leader of the free world. If McCain gets elected we should all pray for his good health.
Liberals don't look nervous to me, just slightly confused as to why McCain would be so reckless and stupid. We're thoughtful, careful people, and we are searching for something good about Palin that we've so far overlooked, forgetting that Republicans are not the same.
At the debates, Biden will play it like Obama and graciously, factually come out a mile ahead. It'll take a miracle for Palin to look even half as Presidential as Hillary behind a podium.
Tell me, who does Biden take her on in the debates without 1) looking like a mean sexist 2)lose the expectations game?
All he has to do is inquire "Who would a President Palin be dealing with...Mr. Putin or Mrs. Putin?
If she can't handle Joe Biden, how can she handle being on the world stage?
Vanessa -
You are completely wrong on wages...Obama is lying.
Factcheck even called him out on it.
Women get paid exactly the same wage for the same job.
Men and women just choose different jobs.
It is illegal to systematically pay women less for the same work, and employers do not do it.
This is another lie spread by the left to brainwash people.
I will go find the study and post it here for you.
To spread that lie is to spread ignorance.
Women actually make up 60% of college degrees now...the gender wars are nearly over.
Stop living in the past, this is supposed to be new politics right?
You are pull stuff right out of 1974...
With Nate's new trend line pointing due North, the GOP should concede now...what a joke.
Pawlenty was scheduled for MTP cause the convention is being held in his home state next week. Duh.
Sarah Palin was scheduled for Fox News Sunday, anyway. Same difference.
Keep spinning wingnuts. The fact that you have to spin your VP pick says everything. Even the rightwing pundits, with a day of insight, are thinking WTF was the old man thinking.
Biden can never look gracious. He always looks like a jerk.
If she were a man it would be a re-run of the Bentsen/Quayle debate, but if Biden tries that with Palin he will look like hes beating up on a poor woman.
Virginia Conservative said...
Tell me, who does Biden take her on in the debates without 1) looking like a mean sexist 2)lose the expectations game?
Because Biden will be attacking McCain and the GOP ticket's positions, not Palin. If you think that means he's attacking Palin, then you're as sexist as everyone you're making that accusation against. Palin will be attacking Obama and his positions, if she get's brushed up and prepped right for how to debate.
Seriously, you guys using this whole "Biden's gonna be seen as attacking Palin" shit are as bad as the people who cried foul that McCain was making racists attacks against Obama back in July.
Are you out of policy positions to debate? If so then Obama and Biden will cream you guys in the debates. Republicans playing the victim card... I never thought I'd see the day.
On one hand, if Biden ignores Palin and just attacks McCain the MSM will talk about how well Palin held up and how she is more experienced than she seems.
OTOH, if he attacks Palin he is a mean sexist beating up on a woman.
Biden must be feeling a little confused.
Check ou the comments to the Funeral in Denver post on the hillaryis44.org blog if you want to see how the Palin pick has galvanized pro-choice PUMAs seeking revenge on Obama. Especially instructive are the comments that were posted around the time Palin made her debut appearance.
BTW, Palin's hubby is 1/8th Indian (Inuit/Eskimo).
Sarah reminds me of a sexy version of Sheriff Marge in Fargo. The gun-toting, biker chick mother of five will play very well in MT, ND, MN, WI, MI, NV, CO, ME, NH, PA, VA, and OH
I forgot that Bush was up 19 after the GOP convention in 2000. There is a sense of timing and number of days in between material events that can be planned.
My theory this time around is that, if the GOP has a great convention, it's worth four points in the Gallup daily tracking. If he has a good convention, it's worth three, and if it's decent, two, and poor, one, etc. I expect a good convention. Those actually attending are fired up and unified to be there and that will play out. With the exception of 1992, I don't think the Republicans have bad conventions.
If the nomination speech is outstanding, it's worth five points, great, four, good, three, and so on. After perceived strength, character, debating, and fundraising, in that order, McCain's weakest suit is giving the big speech. Not that it will be bad, mind you, but it won't be a 7 run home run. Call it good, and worth three points.
That said, and all other things equal, I predict a 47-46 Obama lead, plus/minus 1, in the Gallup daily track by Sept. 8-10.
I'd love to hear your thoughts and opinions.
OTF - the best spin on this board is Obama is the next Abe Lincoln but Sara Palin is not qualified to be the next President. This is borderline laughable.
"What if 1 in 20 Obama supporting women change their mind?
That takes 3 points away from Obama and gives it to McCain, which is a 6 point swing."
Did you miss the post below this one where polls show that women, in general, dislike Palin and think she's not ready to lead? I imagine that those statistics don't point to a 5% loss among females for Obama.
Midpointman,
McCain doesn't think it's wrong to pay women less for the exact same job. He opposed the Ledbetter Fair Pay Act.
OTOH, if he attacks Palin he is a mean sexist beating up on a woman
Which surely will lead to the public concluding that she's ready to be president...
It will lead women to conclude Obama/Biden is a sexist ticket and vote for McCain/Palin.
The polls speak for themselves right now. In the Gallup tracker, it is said that Obama's numbers were down in Friday's polling from the previous two days. This means that the Palin pick did shift the numbers back in McCain's direction, and we are probably just seeing a premature end of Obama's bounce coming out of the convention. According to Gallup, almost all of Obama's bounce came from conservative democrats, a group that the Palin pick is most likely to sway. Also, we are probably seeing a bit of consolidation on the GOP side of things, as there is no doubt that the base was ecstatic over the Palin pick.
Going forward, what does this mean? There are so many wildcards coming up, it is difficult to see. First, we have the GOP convention, which most expected to return to polling numbers to the pre-DNC status quo of Obama with a slight lead. Perhaps even a slight McCain lead, but either way a 1-2 point difference. I would still say that is the most likely outcome at this point.
However, we also have the Gustav wildcard. It's almost certain that Gustav will distract from the convention, the only question is how much. One could argue that a distraction on Monday night is a positive thing, as it is the night that Bush is scheduled to speak. By Thursday, the storm will have long passed. Much depends, then, on the severity of the storm, and the government's response. If the storm hits a sparsely populated area, or if the LA and Federal governments do a stellar job, the storm could be a net plus for the GOP, especially given that LA's Governor, Bobby Jindal, is also an inexperienced young executive, must like Palin. Of course if the storm is another Katrina, McCain takes a hit.
After that, we are going to have an intense few weeks of campaigning up to the debates. Palin will face unquestionable media scrutiny. If she handles herself well, and avoids any Quayle-like gaffes, McCain's pick will look to be a strong one. The experience issue is still very well in play, and Obama's campaign should avoid making it an issue, as Obama's level of experience is arguably similar to Palin's, and Obama is asking to be President on Day 1. Palin only faces a very small possibility of becoming President during the next four years.
Deepening crisis in the Republican Party
The surprise pick of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as the vice presidential running mate of Senator John McCain is indicative of a sharp political crisis within the Republican Party.
With barely a year and a half in office as the governor of the country’s least populous state, Palin had been generally ruled out as a potential nominee. She herself told the Washington Post earlier this year that her selection was an “impossibility.” Much of the media responded with incredulity to the announcement made by McCain in Dayton, Ohio Friday.
Until two years ago, Palin was a part-time mayor of an Anchorage suburb of less than 8,000 people. Before that, the 44-year-old mother of five had served on the local PTA and had gained some recognition as a star high school basketball player and contender in an Alaskan state beauty pageant.
She won an upset victory in the gubernatorial race in 2006, but remains a virtual political unknown outside of her home state, even within the Republican Party.
Asked in a Fox News interview about how well McCain and Palin knew each other, McCain’s campaign spokeswoman Nancy Pfotenhauer replied: “You’re running flat into the wall of my ignorance here ... I truly have no indication whatsoever the extent of a relationship that exists with the governor of Alaska.”
Similarly, the Republican senator from Texas, Kay Bailey Hutchison, told MSNBC News that she did not “know much about her.”
Palin’s outsider status has been touted as a plus from the standpoint of McCain’s attempt to present himself as a “maverick” and “reformer”—an increasingly difficult task given his intimate ties with Washington lobbyists. Palin is herself a political ally of big oil, and has benefited from campaign contributions from an Alaskan oil firm implicated in the state’s roiling political scandals.
More importantly, deep divisions within the Republican Party itself have motivated her selection. Other better-known potential vice presidential candidates, including Mitt Romney and Tom Ridge, face stiff opposition from within the party, especially from its politically potent right-wing Christian evangelical wing, where McCain himself enjoys scant popularity.
Among that constituency, which has provided the Republicans with their only popular electoral base, Palin’s selection was celebrated as a major political victory.
While her name was barely mentioned in the extensive media speculation about McCain’s choice, she was a favorite of the Christian right. In an interview with CBS News on August 8, Southern Baptist political leader Richard Land issued a sharp warning that McCain’s vice presidential pick would be “the most important choice he’s going to make in this entire campaign.” There was “no room for error, no margin for doubt,” he added.
If the Republican nominee chose a running mate who supported abortion rights, Land warned, “it will confirm the unease and the mistrust that some evangelicals—and don’t forget this, social conservative Catholics—feel about McCain.”
Asked whom the Christian right would like to see chosen for the position, Land named Palin. He stressed that her “pro-life” credentials had been burnished by her giving birth in April to a child with Downs Syndrome and her public statements that she would never consider having an abortion. Land also pointed to her lifetime membership in the National Rifle Association as a political asset.
Palin has also won support within these circles by campaigning against same-sex marriage and calling for the teaching of creationism in public schools.
Within her home state of Alaska, the selection of Palin for the number-two spot on the Republican ticket was met with some amazement.
The longtime political columnist for the Fairbanks Daily News-Miner, Dermot Cole, told the Associated Press that McCain’s choice was “reckless” and questioned Palin’s qualifications for the job.
“Sarah Palin’s chief qualification for being elected governor was that she was not Frank Murkowski,” Cole said, referring to her Republican predecessor, who went down to a crushing defeat in his re-election bid thanks to budget cuts and a series of corruption and nepotism scandals. “She was not elected because she was a conservative. She was not elected because of her grasp of issues or because of her track record as the mayor of Wasilla,” Cole added.
Adding to the surprise at Palin’s selection is the fact that the Alaska governor is facing an ethics probe of her own. The state legislature voted last month to hire an independent investigator into the case, which stems from the controversial firing of the state’s public safety commissioner, which has been linked to the official’s refusal to fire a state trooper involved in a bitter divorce with the governor’s sister.
One obvious motive for picking Palin is that she is a woman and therefore her candidacy can be used to promote the McCain campaign’s attempt to win over disaffected Hillary Clinton voters. At the rally in Dayton announcing her selection, Palin made a pitch along these lines, signaling a bid by the Republican Party to compete with the Democrats on the basis of gender politics.
“I can’t begin this great effort without honoring the achievements of Geraldine Ferraro in 1984, and, of course, Senator Hillary Clinton, who showed such determination and grace in her presidential campaign,” Palin told the Republican crowd. “The women of America aren’t finished yet, and we can shatter that glass ceiling once and for all.”
Ferraro, the 1984 Democratic vice presidential nominee, reciprocated by telling Fox News that McCain’s choice was “historic” and affirming that there are “a lot of women who are disaffected by the way Hillary was treated” by the Obama campaign and the media.
Given Palin’s hardline anti-abortion rights views, however, it appears highly unlikely that she will succeed in winning over large numbers of women who voted for Clinton in the Democratic primaries.
Democratic campaign officials gloated over the choice, saying that Palin’s nomination would deflate any attempt by the Republicans to cast Obama as unfit for the presidency because of his relative lack of political experience. “Experience is being taken off the table, considering you’re putting someone within a heartbeat of the presidency with the thinnest foreign policy experience in history,” said Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton.
The “heartbeat away from the presidency” theme is likely to persist, given that McCain, who celebrated his 72nd birthday on the same day that he announced his vice presidential running mate, would be the oldest person ever inaugurated for a first term in the White House and has significant health problems.
The prospect of Palin, who has no experience and no known views on any foreign policy issues—or, for that matter, on most domestic ones—taking the helm as president may give pause to significant layers within the ruling establishment itself.
Great point Midpoint. This talk about women not being stupid enough to change their vote is totally misguided. Of course hardcore feminists won't vote for the pro-life "anti" equal pay McCain. But most women aren't hardcore feminists, Palin could help with a significant number of moderate women. Identity politics aren't the be all end all, but they certainly matter. Why do you think Obama so utterly dominated African voters in the primaries and Romney did among Mormons.
MPM -
"Women get paid exactly the same wage for the same job.
Men and women just choose different jobs."
Let me fix that for you -
Men and women get hired for different jobs. I mean look at the biggest glaring fact in this discussion - A woman has only been "hired" twice to run as the VP in history. It's really shitty that both of them have been pander picks.
The biggest benefit McCain gets out of selecting Palin is greater interest in the RNC. Stopping Obama's bounce is nice but meaningless given that the election is still more than 2 months away. But invigorating interest among the lay public and among his base in the convention was the best thing to come out of the selection of Palin.
But still there is a definite lack of star power in the convention schedule. Dubya? The less time he spends the better for McCain? Pawlenty? Zzzz Romney? Uh... Jindal? Out.
Porridgegun, are you channeling a left wing Pete Kent?
"Voters have a favorable impression of her by a 53/26 margin; however, by a 29/44 margin, they do not believe that she is ready to be President."
Does it not occur to you the phenomenal implications of having a better than 2-1 favorability rating AND >50% approval? When's the last time ANY Democrat had those kinds of numbers for anything?
Substantive comprises far more of that rating than does cute, and that's why the number was so awesome.
OK, most people don't think she's ready to be president yet. That's a reasonable position until she proves herself under the national spotlight. She doesn't need to be ready right now. The readiness worry goes away over time. She's smart, she has the right instincts, and she'll get ready.
The sick part is the far-leftists doing their damndest to put a stick in the spokes of the favorability rating, regardless of the lies and half-truths they have to tell to stir the pot.
Forgot to mention. Right now, Palin is scheduled to appear on Tuesday - the projected day Gustav is scheduled to land.
To all those who spread falsehoods on gender wage differences, have a look.
The National Association of Colleges and Employers actually shows that women are now getting higher starting salaries than men.
Everything else is explained by job choice and work experience.
http://jhr.uwpress.org/cgi/content/abstract/XLII/1/32
Do New Male and Female College Graduates Receive Unequal Pay?
Judith A. McDonald and Robert J. Thornton
We analyze the female-male gap in starting-salary offers for new college graduates using data from the annual surveys of the National Association of Colleges and Employers (NACE), unique (and proprietary) data that have not previously been used for this purpose. A major advantage of working with a data set on salaries for new college graduates is that we can remove the possible influence of gender differences in experience, promotions, job changes, and other factors on the salary gap. We find that as much as 95 percent of the overall gender gap in starting-salary offers can be explained by differences in college majors selected.
Still the only numbers that matter most.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/scoreboards/by_the_numbers2/by_the_numbers
Notice Obamas numbers in regards to "offers big government solutions" and "taxes go up."
This election comes down to PA/OH/MI.
I hope the Obama camp keeps running the way they are.
On Nov 4th will come to see IL as an island of Blue admist a sea of Red.
Bill Maher: "why yes, Republicans can fill a stadium too...look what happened to the Superdome during Katrina"
Lets hope they don't f*ck up again with Gustav
The premise of those positing a large convention bounce for McCain assumes a) there were a lot of conservatives sitting on the sidelines in the polls saying they weren't going to vote for McCain, who will now come over because of Palin and the rally of a convention and b) the convention will speak to the moveable middle and persuade them back to McCain.
Let's look at assumption a: conservative Palin rally. My guess is, as with Biden, we're seeing it in the polls today and tomorrow. We've probably already dampened Obama's bounce by 2% today due to this factor. Let's say the total population that's pursuadable based on this equals the Bob Barr contingent, or 3%. So Palin will probably bring over another 1% over the next couple days.
Looking at factor b. Well, a lot of the moveable middle was waiting to hear from Obama before making up their minds. They already know everything they need to about McCain. But let's say McCain has a great speech, that he keeps the embarrassing right-wing nutjobs off camera for most of the convention, and that he takes advantage of going second to rebut Obama. His bet bet actually would be if Gustav distracts everyone but die hard Republicans from the convention (so the crazy nut jobs are missed by the middle) and most people only tune in to see McCain on the last night (an odd consideration, Gustav may actually end up helping McCain that way). That's a lot of iffs but if all that goes well, my sense is about 50% of people who changed their minds for Obama might decide to change them back to McCain. It's hard to see more than that since Palin will not persuade a lot of this middle and likely will turn them off. That's 50% of ten points or five point.
Total swing back to McCain: six points. That seems to me the best he can get out of this. Returning Obama to his 2 - 3 point lead he's had all summer.
Narrow? Yes. But enough for an Obama win, assuming there are no major flubs in the debates.
The game of disbundling single days from the national tracker averages is very frustrating, but this should be clear.
Last night was pretty bad for Obama in Rasmussen. (About even with McCain?)
Last night was pretty good for Obama in Gallup. (About eight points up?)
This kind of margin suggests that there is a very meaningful single day surge in Democratic identification, which after all is predictable given the Obama speech effect.
To sum up the convention: it appears the most significant move followed Hillary's speech.
A final note. the discussion of gender as an issue in these elections is a bit misplaced. There is clear evidence that the issue of the elections are Clinton supporters. However, the gender gap suggests that the issue is not primarily FEMALE Clinton supporters. In this sense, the Palin choce is weakly thought out.
tibor75,
Two things, (1) Palin will most likely be switched to Wednesday. The schedule reflects the speaking order before the VP pick was made. The VP traditionally gives an acceptance speech on Wednesday. (2) Gustav is projected to be far inland by 8 AM Tuesday, which means he will likely be making landfall in the wee hours of Tuesday morning.
Also, the computer models are showing Gustav moving west, which is a good thing, as he is now more likely to make landfall a couple hundred miles west of New Orleans, along the more sparsely populated central Lousiana gulf coast, between New Orleans and Houston.
Obviously we should all hope that Gustav makes landfall in an area that effects the least amount of people.
I don't want to hear any goons telling me that the Journal of Human Resources is some right wing hate rag.
The left spreads more lies to gain power and it is unconscionable.
STOP LYING TO THE PEOPLE!
"For Palin being such a bad choice, there sure is a lot of discussion with her among Democrats and nervousness."
That's not nerves -- it's nausea, because of how sickening it is to watch a so-called 'war hero' who claims to 'put country first' choose an entirely unqualified VP for purely political reasons.
"She doesn't need to be ready right now."
HUH?
What happened to all the bullshit about Obama not being ready and how the VP needs to be ready to take over for the president immediately?
Are you people really this stupid, or really this dishonest? It has to be one or the other.
Oalins favorability ratings will fall like a rock when the National press gets on the case, not the hick news media in Alaska. And don't forget she is under investigation for
ethics violations and that investigation wraps up on Oct 31, four days before the election. Can you imagine if they find she committed the charges? Kiss it goodbye McCain............
Tito -
You are wrong. It goes back to the college degrees they choose.
STOP YOUR LIES. READ THE RESEARCH.
I posted the study for you...is it so hard to deal in facts?
...or is it just better to create more false villains for people to blame?
Why can't you guys run on the merits? You have to foment division to win anything.
Unity my arse...you guys divide to conquer with your constant lying about things like this.
MPM -
You're link is useless. It's a summary of the article, and doesn't show any of the data or methodology. Right away I can see two flaws in it
1) Like I said, men and women get hired for different jobs. This in turn effects career choice and therefore college degrees earned.
2) This only seems to deal with starting salary. Show what the pay scale looks like for two people in the same field with the same experience after 10 years.
You addressing the issue on a macro level, and that's pretty irrelevant. The argument over women's pay is about women who do the same job as men with the same experience and yet earn less. This is something that does exist. Your argument does absolutely nothing to address the issue. You only offer subterfuge.
Rudy,
What 1/2 truths about her.
She is under investigation for ethics violations.
She was for the bridge to nowhere until the federal funding was taken away. She was willing to spend US fed money, but not AK's own money on the project.
She is extreme anti-choice, even in the case of rape and incest.
She thinks creationsim is okay to teach in public schools.
She imposed a tax increase on oil companies in 2006 and gave a tax break based on it. Sounds like a windfall profit tax. Why is it okay for AK and not for the rest of the USA?
She agreed with the Obama energy plan, ofcourse that will change now.
She doesn't believe man is invilved in global warming(same as Boy blunder).
She opposed the federal protection of polar bears b/c it would interfere with oil and gas companies work.
That's her record. It's easily findable as the press is vetting her. If you don't like her record, blame her not the press.
"Unity my arse...you guys divide to conquer with your constant lying about things like this."
Lying?
You mean like spending months telling everyone that experience and ability to be CiC is the most important thing and then picking a soccer mom with no experience who doesn't even know what the VP does?
Rhys - if its BS about Obama then is it BS about Palin. Explain to me how Obama is more qualified than Palin. Is it the Law Degree from Harvard or the strut at Invesco?
Still no one answered my question about the debate conundrum facing Biden.
Sarah Palin in the debates.
A lot
Thats what Jesus wants
9-11 was bad
The Iraq Surge Was working
Nine?? ELeven
What about the Terrorists.
Yes too bad Obama wasn't president when Katrina hit. With a wave of his mighty hand he could have scattered the hurricane to the four corners of the globe.
When Obama is president we will no longer be left to the mercy of natural disasters. His mere presence will enrich our lives, tame terrorists, cure sickness, feed the masses, and peace will reign over the planet.
And you call us ignorant.
McCain/Palin '08
Palin was picked as VP to help Republicans block a Democratic filibuster-proof Senate, not to help McCain. The rationale for Palin is that she'll hugely boost the turnout of religious right voters who will make the difference in a number of close Senate contests. So, although Palin's far right views will lose McCain more votes from moderate Republicans and Independents than he gains from the increased religious right turnout, the Republican Senate candidates will get the votes of all three groups and have a better chance of winning.
To sum up the convention: it appears the most significant move followed Hillary's speech.
That's to be expected. Anyone who thought Obama's speech would move the numbers more than Hillary's speech is deluded. Hillary was speaking to the undecided in polls. Obama was preaching to the choir...the people who have been in his column all along.
You don't get a bounce among people were already on board.
MidPointMan,
Let's correct your statistics on the gender gap (I'm a sociology prof; this is my area).
Women do choose different occupations than men, but less so than they did. Women (working fulltime) as a whole earn 76 cents on the dollar compared to men (working ditto), but women are more likely to work parttime.
Why do they work different jobs? Learning & opportunity. There is still prejudice-based sex discrimination restricting entering some fields, and girls are discouraged by elders (teachers etc) from considering command careers and engineering professions.
Women are earning 51% of the degrees, not 60% - but large percentage are still in elem educ, library, social work, nursing (trad women occupations). Those pay lower and do not have a steep career ladder for promotions.
The call "equal pay for equal work" doesn't focus on equal pay in the same job, but for equivalent jobs - with the same level of technical skills, stress, oversight responsibility, etc. We all know that (when enforced) the law protects equal pay in the same job, but (1) the Repubs are not currently trying hard to enforce the law and (2) "equivalent work" is a political struggle to define.
MPM, you didn't post shit. You posted a link to a SUMMARY! I'm not paying $17.00 to read that shit when it doesn't address the actually issue. I doubt you've paid to read it either.
I CAN TYPE IN ALL CAPS TO AND CALL YOU A LIAR AND MAKE LOUD NOISES BUT IT DOESN'T CHANGE THE FACTS.
You're spinning, you've offered no real proof, and the angle your "proof" comes from doesn't address the real issue of women's pay, which is as I said but I'll say again:
IT'S ABOUT WOMEN WORKING THE SAME EXACT JOB AS MEN WITH THE SAME EXACT EXPERIENCE WHILE MAKING LESS PAY
Is that so hard for you to understand, or are you gonna keep spinning instead of addressing that fact?
...I have another lie for you.
Obama makes up stories in his speech about how wages have dropped by $2,000 since Bush got in office.
LIE.
Now read this...We were above 2000 levels 2 YEARS AGO!
This is from the New York Times for crying out loud!
Wages fell after the Clinton tech bust and 9/11. They have risen strongly for 4 straight years after that and passed the Clinton level by 2006...2 YEARS AGO!!
OBAMA IS SUCH A LIAR!
HOW CAN YOU VOTE FOR A LIAR?
----------------------------------
Average income surpasses 2000 level
The New York Times
Americans enjoyed higher average income in 2006 for the first time since 2000, when the last economic expansion ended, the latest tax data show. Adjusted gross income reported on tax returns in 2006 averaged $58,029. In 2006 dollars that was an increase of $739, or 1.2 percent, from the $57,289 average in 2000, analysis of Internal Revenue Service data showed.
"Yes too bad Obama wasn't president when Katrina hit. With a wave of his mighty hand he could have scattered the hurricane to the four corners of the globe.
When Obama is president we will no longer be left to the mercy of natural disasters. His mere presence will enrich our lives, tame terrorists, cure sickness, feed the masses, and peace will reign over the planet."
I doubt his first priority would have been birthday cake, however.
Midpointman,
Are you really that dumb. People aren't talking about women vs men in general, but about the same exact same job. Like the case this sprng where the female engineer was paid less than her male counterparts for the exacts ame job. She founfthat out and tried to get compensation, That's what the Ledbetter Bill was about and McCain opposed it.
"Rhys - if its BS about Obama then is it BS about Palin."
Nope. Not even close.
Obama has national experience and has proven himself through a gruelling primary campaign. He was ELECTED.
Palin has no clue about any issue and was chosen at the last minute because she has a pretty smile.
"Still no one answered my question about the debate conundrum facing Biden."
It's been answered a million times. Learn how to read.
"Yes too bad Obama wasn't president when Katrina hit. With a wave of his mighty hand he could have scattered the hurricane to the four corners of the globe."
No, you fucking lying asshole, he, like any COMPETENT president, would have actually given a shit and done what was supposed to be done during a crisis.
In addition, we wouldn't have had half our fucking national guard in fucking Iraq fighting a war your asswipe president LIED to get us into.
I choose that Biden beats up on Palin.
Really Mike? You want him to tell Palin "you're no Hillary Clinton" or something along those lines? What if she cries?
There goes women voters!
"...I have another lie for you."
You seem to have at least one in each of your posts, yes.
@Mike
"That said, and all other things equal, I predict a 47-46 Obama lead, plus/minus 1, in the Gallup daily track by Sept. 8-10."
I'll be surprised if Obama is behind. I'd say his speech and the convention will have lasting impact across the political landscape: Palin being chosen will have lasting impact among evangelicals only, but a temporary boost elsewhere. A big question for me is if the McCain gambler meme takes off, if it does he's going to lose at least a couple of points there, basically wiping the Palin gains (if any).
Best thing that can happen for the Reps is if Gustav means no one pays attention to their convention IMO....
"What if she cries?"
Are you serious? Is that how she'll get Putin to retreat from Georgia? By crying?
Source: McCain, GOP Significantly Expanding Advertising Map Into New States
Wonderful news for McCain, eh? Not really.
John McCain and the Republican National Committee are significantly expanding the map of their ad spending, and have now reserved ad time in North Carolina and statewide in Virginia, as well as in new markets in many other states, according to a Democratic operative familiar with national ad buying.
The expansion is significant, because it suggests that the McCain team is less confident in its chances in Virginia and North Carolina than it once was. Obama is advertising statewide in both places. More broadly, the expanded buy suggests that the McCain team is being forced by Obama's wider advertising map to play on a broader playing field than it had hoped to.
Here, according to the Dem operative, is a list of the new states (with markets in parentheses) that McCain and/or the RNC have reserved air time in for the week beginning on September 1:
North Carolina (Raleigh, Greensboro)
Minnesota (Minneapolis, Duluth)
Virginia: (Norfolk, Richmond, Roanoke, Tri Cities, Harrisonburg, Charlottesville)
With the exception of national ads, neither McCain nor the GOP had been up in those states until now. McCain had previously been advertising in a small corner of Virginia, to reach the D.C. market; he's now moving to expand into all those new Virginia markets above, suggesting that the Republicans see gains by Obama in the state.
That's not all. McCain and/or the RNC are reserving ad time in new markets in states they were already up in, according to the Dem operative. Here they are:
Iowa (Omaha, Ottumwa, Quincy)
New Hampshire (Portland, Burlington)
New Mexico (El Paso, Amarillo)
Nevada (Salt Lake)
It's unclear precisely where in the above new markets the McCain team is advertising and where the RNC is booking time; all the above markets, however, have now been booked by one of the two. The McCain campaign didn't return a request for comment.
The expansion -- which of course could be subject to change -- could be partly due to a desire to dump primary funds before McCain is the nominee. But it also clearly suggests a shift on the GOP's part to deal with the Obama campaign's aggressive advertising in 18 states.
Wingnuts, in case you didn't get what this means, read the comments:
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/08/source_mccain_significantly_ex.php
Rhys -
So if Palin where to split her party in a grueling primary should be better qualified? National Experience? Obama has been running for President longer than he as been a Senator. He was fixing parking tixs in the Ill state senate a few yrs back. He gave the key note speech at the Dem convention even before he was elected as a US Senator. Obama qualifications are a joke.
Wow, the comments here have really devolved. I guess that's what happens when the only polls out are crappy tracking polls that have as much noise as anything. Everyone is trying to interpret shifts of a couple of points and make them seem important. Trackers have noise. Anyone who has been paying attention to them for the past couple of months is aware of that. Obama got an initial bump at the beginning of the convention. McCain will likely get one next week during his convention. None of it matters unless it sticks, which we won't have any idea about for another 10 days, at the earliest. Any Palin bump is similarly irrelevant unless it lasts for 2+ months.
"Really Mike? You want him to tell Palin "you're no Hillary Clinton" or something along those lines? What if she cries?"
If Biden goes after her in the totally pointless VP debates, he's not going to say anything as remotely crass and absurd as that. She has a lot of views that aren't popular among Democrats and Independents. I'm pretty sure he can just talk about those and call it a day.
otf -
For the same job, women earn the same pay, these studies show that.
The National Association of Colleges and Employers show that.
You get sued if you do not do that.
Controlling for work experience women earn exactly what men earn for the same job.
They just choose different jobs.
That is want the studies say.
A male nurse makes EXACTLY what a female nurse makes, controlling for tenure.
A female doctor makes EXACTLY what a male nurse makes, controlling for tenure.
I post facts and studies and you can't take it.
You need to foment your lies or the phoniness of your platform reveals itself.
You guys are dredging up old politics, not bringing new politics.
It is really sad that the left has no new ideas.
@VC
"Really Mike? You want him to tell Palin "you're no Hillary Clinton" or something along those lines? What if she cries?
There goes women voters!"
Seriously, how little do you think of women that they'll all choose to vote for the person who's crying ovr a harsh question and yet is supposedly ready for the Presidency?
I think a lot of people are misinterpreting the pick regarding women. Your logic goes something like this...
McCain wants to win women who supported Hillary--He selects a woman, Palin--Palin's conservatism will drive away Hillary supporters
The problem with this is that a lot of the Hillary supporters, particularly the ones McCain wants to take away from Obama, are SOCIAL CONSERVATIVES and FOREIGN POLICY HAWKS. They typically vote Dem on economic issues.
If you think Palin drives away pro-choicers, I have news for you: They were already gone. Anyone who is strongly pro-choice was not going to vote for McCain no matter who he picked (including Lieberman or Ridge).
I expect that when both conventions are in the rearview mirror, the Monday morning tracking polls on September 8 will show the race basically back to a tie (maybe McCain up 1), and state polls that week will be similar to what we've seen lately.
Given the GOP tendency to gain ground in September/October (as happened in 1976, 1980, 1984, 1988, 1996, and 2004) and the Bradley effect (which only applies in general elections, not primaries) -- a tie on September 8 would augur for a McCain win in November.
BTW, Governors Carter, Reagan, Clinton, and Dumbya had no foreign policy experience when they first became President, so why can't a VP be a Governor without foreign policy experience? VP Spiro Agnew certainly didn't in 1968 and he and Nixon got elected at the height of the Vietnam War and the Cold War.
I missed you, Sedi
Sarah Palin is an extreme right wing NEO NAZI who openly supported Buchannan who is a HOLOCAUST DENIER and praised Hitler "as a man of great courage". Palin never expressed her views about Israel.
In addition, she is an evangelical idiot who still believes the world is flat and that evolution is wrong.
Jewish associations are outraged
link:http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0808/Palin_on_Israel.html?showall
A female doctor makes EXACTLY what a male doctor makes, controlling for tenure.
Typo. Funny one, eh?
VC, I calculated the odds of one event happening over another. You can't teach the old dog new tricks. If she cries, I have two names for you. Ed Muskie is the first. The second one, of course, is "Jimmy Dugan", who said there's no crying in baseball. Not really, but you get my point.
The only number we care about in Gustav right now stands at 942 millibars, or 27.82 inches. The stronger the hurricane, the greater the likelihood that FEMA does it's job with recovery. Yep, you read that right. If Gustav is Katrina II, Obama wins Louisiana in November. And if he does...
Well, this isn't a popularity contest, so, what I really want to find out is whether the bounce translates into any real movement in Ohio or Colorado. But I don't think we are going to get any accurate polls on those states until November!
Shes married to a Native American. How can she be a "Nazi"?
Anyway, the bottom line is that it seems like Obama is going to be our next president and all the racist neo-nazi hicks better get used to it...how does that feel? :)
"Obama qualifications are a joke."
Obama isn't running on qualifications. McCain is.
McCain is a liar.
On gender pay equality:
I have no doubt that there remains a significant amount of gender bias in the workforce. Talk to any women , they'll tell you. But 76 cents on a dollar stat that you hear is really bulls***. It doesn't control for all sorts of relevant factors, such as hours worked(full time men on average work more hours than full time women), experience, education etc...
Work fields traditionally dominated by women also tend to be lower paying than those dominated by men, but is this unfair? Many of these fields are much more satisfying. Parole officers make more money for similar qualifications than social workers. But parole officers generally don't have the satisfaction of helping people face to face on a daily basis. Besides, the marketplace sets the salaries for these professions, do we really want the government to intercede. Should a central planning committee begin setting the salaries for all jobs.
Edmund Muskie wasn't a woman. Biden can't be mean or harsh on her. Period.
OTOH, if he isn't, he loses the debate because expectations will be so low.
"It is really sad that the left has no new ideas."
Here's a new idea:
STOP INVOLVING THE UNITED STATES IN POINTLESS FUCKING WARS THAT KILL OUR KIDS AND RUIN OUR ECONOMY.
Try that.
mrinsight22 -- Mostly agreed, though I should point out that as Governor of Alaska, Palin does have some foreign policy experience. Most notably she negotiated a rather major natural gas pipeline deal with Canada, thus giving her some foreign diplomatic experience.
I thought the idea behind banning anonymous commenting was to cut down on trolling? It seems like the trolling in the comments here is worse than it ever was.
Methinks we need some moderation in here.
Rhys -
Ok, you win. I did not realize that McCain is a liar. Match point to you.
She is Governor of a sate that lies between Canada and Russia (a major world power). That is good preparation.
Virginia conservative: LOL, her husband is a white guy. Maybe you've never seen any Native Americans in your life?
And yes she IS a NEO-NAZI who supported Pat Buchannan, a known HOLOCAUST DENIER and a man who PRAISED HITLER for his courage and genius.
In addition she's some kind of religious retard who believe that the earth is flat and that evolution is wrong.
check the link above and go read the article (if you CAN read of course)
Please read, she's not qualified:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/13001
What should matter? Foreign policy expertise and experience, economic expertise and experience. She has little to none in both areas. Two years ago was mayor of a twon with 8496 people in it. Think about how small that is for a second.
As for her social issues stances. Let's see for comparison purposes see Pat Robertson/Buchanon on the right or Jesse Jackson/Howard Dean on the left. Passionate followers? Absolutely!!! MCCain's gotten over $7 Million in the last 36 hours. But will that appeal to over 1/2 the country. Gotta doubt it. No choice on abortion, even when it comes to rape and incest. Just as far right on guns. Appeals to many, but a little too far right, not acceptable. Women, whether you're talking about your average Hillary voter or suburban soccer moms that tend to be slightly right of center would both prefer someone highly qualified like Kay Bailey Hutchison, Condoleeza Rice, or Carly Fiorina. They could all help McCain govern. Picking someone underqualified will offend many. The Hillary voters loved her because to them she was the most qualified person and had a shot. For the most part, they're not interested in tokenism. It's insulting. There were many qualified women to choose from, Sarah Palin just wasn't one of them. She said as much herself in recent interviews.
Yes, but if Gustav is well handled, credit will rightly go to Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, who is handling the preparations as we speak.
Jindal, like Palin, is a young (late 30s I believe) Republican first term governor.
Palin Ad Starring Ted Stevens Already Scrubbed From Palin's Campaign Website.
Unfortunately for Her Corruptness...
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/08/palin_ad_starring_ted_stevens.php
"She is Governor of a sate that lies between Canada and Russia (a major world power). That is good preparation."
Come on, NOBODY could possibly be dumb enough to believe this.
Could they???
Virginia Conservative: "She is Governor of a sate that lies between Canada and Russia (a major world power). That is good preparation."
OMG, did you at least go to High School in your life?
Living next to Russia does't qualify you in foreign policy...
By the way, yesterday, some guy at Fox news claimed that she had more foreign policy than Obama because Alaska is next to Russia.
You conservatives can't even think for yourselves. You're so stupid that you have to repeat like a parrot someonelse's dumb talking points.
rhys -
I am not talking about the right, I am talking about the left.
I agree with you on the war. I am not a Republican. Both parties make me sick to some degree.
But it is the housing mess that is damaging the economy, and this is not Bush's fault.
It is a bunch of liberal lawyers suing banks to get them to give out low-income mortgages.
In a settlement Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac agreed to securitize them and sell them.
The sub-prime market was born.
Now all those loans went bad. Do not even dare to tell me the left has nothing to do with this...
Hurburble and Rhys might need therapy.
...and 3.3% GDP growth = ruining the economy?
What are you smoking?
We did not even have a recession...
You must be 12, because you forget what a recession is really like.
My heavens...
This is how I think the debate between Gov. Palin and Sen. Biden will go.
Biden talks and smiles for twenty minutes about how smart he is and he really should be the one at the top of the ticket.
Palin maps out an intelligent energy plan that incorporates all sources of energy production including the clean and unintrusive extraction of oil from ANWR, which happens to be in her own state.
Biden talks and smiles for twenty minutes about how smart he is and he really should be the one at the top of the ticket. Then he tries to change the subject to foreign policy.
Palin plays the goalie like the true hockey mom she is and shows that she is truly in touch with what Americans need from their government and knocks back the puck. She talks about corruption and how she has cleaned up her own state in such a short time and promises to do the same as VP.
Biden talks and smiles for twenty minutes about how smart he is and he really should be the one at the top of the ticket. He then says to Palin... "You're drop dead gorgous"
Debate over.
McCain/Palin '08
Overrated,
Well, I've posted a few times today on the other thread, but it just seems like the level of nastiness keeps ramping up. The polls don't really tell us anything and Palin is such a huge unknown, so the conversation (shouting match?) seems to keep coming down to either "Palin changed everything" or "Palin doomed McCain" despite the facts that almost nobody knows and that VP picks rarely have a major effect on the race. And most folks are pretty humorless about it now, so that's kind of a bummer.
I think everybody just sees what they want to in Palin. Are you a big fan of the choice?
I really hope Gustav loses some strength before it hits. The last thing we need is another devastating hurricane.
Maybe when the hurricane hits this time, McCain and Bush can share some of their cake with the victims. Could be a good photo op!
Midpointman,
There was just a case that was settled on this where a female with the exact same job was getting paid less with the same qualifications and skills. It was cited as a case for spport for the Ledbetter Bill. It was hard for her to sue for compensation correction. McCain opposed the bill that would prevent some unethical companies from trying to pay women less with equals qualifications, expertise for the same job. You are purposely obtuse as this has already been explained.
Some employers will try to get away with wage discrimination if they can to better the bottom line. Are you really that naive to believe that some won't do so?
overrated: you'll surely need some therapy Nov 4th, when you'll see on TV that your next president is OBAMA
OBAMA
OBAMA
OBAMA
OBAMA
OBAMA
You'd better get used to it, you hick.
Hurburble,
Palin's husband is a native Yup'ik Eskimo. Sorry, it's a fact.
MID POINTLESS MAN
where the hell did you pick up your 'knowledge' about the housing crisis ?
your expalnation for it is so retarded & wrong, that I have to assume you mean it in a Bizarro World.
liberal lawyers caused it ? sez who ? Rush ?
that is just plain stoopid rubbish !
Here it is once more for all of you racist white supremacists hicks:
Sarah Palin is an extreme right wing NEO NAZI who openly supported Buchannan who is a HOLOCAUST DENIER and praised Hitler "as a man of great courage". Palin never expressed her views about ISRAEL.
In addition, she is an evangelical idiot who still believes the world is flat and that evolution is wrong.
Jewish associations are outraged
link:http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0808/Palin_on_Israel.html?showall
She is Governor of a sate that lies between Canada and Russia (a major world power). That is good preparation."
Come on, NOBODY could possibly be dumb enough to believe this.
Could they???
I think most people will say that is more foreign policy experience than Obama has.
The Governor of Alaska deals with foreign officials just like neighboring governors in the lower 48 would...water rights, joint infrastrucure and land improvement.
Palin has met with Russian officials on a proposed tunnel under the Bering Straight so that rail can move products to Asia.
That right there is more that Obama has done.
It is not hard to find a number higher than zero.
Hurburble--
Her husband is a native. He is Inuit.
Please educate yourself before making a stupid statement. This is part of the reason that Independents hate you ("you" meaning "liberals").
smk22: I don't give a damn f*ck what kind of native american he is or is not. The fact of the matter is that she is A KNOWN ANTI-SEMITE.
here's for you again:
Sarah Palin is an extreme right wing NEO NAZI who openly supported Buchannan who is a HOLOCAUST DENIER and praised Hitler "as a man of great courage". Palin never expressed her views about Israel.
In addition, she is an evangelical idiot who still believes the world is flat and that evolution is wrong.
Jewish associations are outraged
link:http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0808/Palin_on_Israel.html?showall
@ Virginia Conservative --
Did your son log in as you today? Usually you make some kind of sense....
(1) How brilliant do you have to be to predict that the race will be back neck and neck after the Republican convention?
(2) I don't think you get how this whole Palin thing is offensive to women. Biden will and should take her apart in debates. To not do so would be sexist. You don't seem to get that.
(3) I don't know about everyone else, but I'm not nervous. It's actually funny to me. And I actually feel sorry for McCain. What a way to end a political career. He and John Kerry can cry in their beers together.
@ The Bush I comparisons --
It wasn't as simple as Quayle. You remember John Q. Milquetoast named Michael Dukakis? You remember Ronald Reagan, one of the most-popular Presidents in American history. If H.W. hadn't won that election he would have been the worst failure ever.
Obama ain't no Dukakis and W. ain't no Ronald Reagan.
People are ignoring the vulnerable spot in this for the Democrats -- that is, they have to be careful dismantling Palin so that they don't appear to be too 'old school' politics.
Man, what I wouldn't pay to see Hillary take Palin apart. It would be like throwing chum to the sharks.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/13001
She's not qualified. No experience with foreign affairs. Almost none relatable for economic matters. See Wassila, population 8000. Mayor two years ago. And so far to the right on social issues, that though some will be passionately excited that one of theirs is on the map, her views are extreme. No abortion choice under any circumstance including rape and incest? You think most women are cool with that? I'm thinking the answer is no. Not only would the pro-choice community be offended by that, but a large part of the pro-life community thinks that's too extreme. You had a lot of good people to choose from, many were women, but not this one. This choice is absurd and ridiculous.
You're the one that brought up his ethnic background, Hurburble.
"(2) I don't think you get how this whole Palin thing is offensive to women. Biden will and should take her apart in debates. To not do so would be sexist. You don't seem to get that."
Nail. Head.
"I agree with you on the war. I am not a Republican. Both parties make me sick to some degree."
Then why would you, in any way, support a man so reckless when it comes to foreign policy that even Pat Buchanan is afraid to see him in the White House?
hurburble -
That sounds like a credible source.
Go with that style of attack and lose 60% of the female vote.
You see the risk you run is that by African Americans were all voting for Obama anyway, so pulling the race card is not going to get you much.
Beating up an American Girl Sarah Palin will possibly lose you the vote of every daughter, every big brother, did I mention every Mom as well?
The risk is vastly higher in this case.
Tread lightly with that extremist garbage.
Neo-Nazis rarely have 80% approvals, so you have an uphill climb to sell that one.
Oh, Sedi. I know why you are my favorite liberal - a voice of reason inside all this invective. Yes, Palin has energized us conservatives. At the very least she resets the calculus on the future of the GOP. She also provides a much needed appeal to Western swing voters IMO. Hope you are having a good day.
Canada is in the G8. Doesn't that qualify them as a world power? ;-) Just a little G8 joke there...
Hear, hear! We need more polling. MUCH more, and better polling, too, in more important, high impact states. A total of five polls taken in Ohio in August? That's just wrong...
"That right there is more that Obama has done.
It is not hard to find a number higher than zero."
I think that being a sitting senator on the Foreign Relations Committee counts a smidge more than talking about a tunnel.
BTW, here's an interesting reaction from conservatives. Democrats aren't the only ones scared, shocked, and uneasy with Palin:
http://frum.nationalreview.com/post/?q=M2VhOWE0N2VkOWI3MDdlODRlZWE4ODljMDc2NjliZDk=
I wouldn't be surprised if this was a landslide for Obama/Biden by the time this is over. Although is would be 1964 all over again....
hurburble, the fact that she supported Buchanan doesn't make her an anti-semite, any more than Obama going to Wright's church makes Obama any of the things Wright is.
Provide some proof SHE did anything negative towards Jews or kindly shut the fuck up.
OK
Here it is again for all of you racist white supremacists hicks:
SHE IS A KNOWN ANTI-SEMITE. What a great introduction to the public!! By the way your threat about losing 60% of the women vote is just so pathetic and ridiculous.
Sarah Palin is an extreme right wing NEO NAZI who openly supported Buchannan who is a HOLOCAUST DENIER and praised Hitler "as a man of great courage". Palin never expressed her views about Israel.
In addition, she is an evangelical idiot who still believes the world is flat and that evolution is wrong.
Jewish associations are outraged
link:http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0808/Palin_on_Israel.html?showall
"Beating up an American Girl Sarah Palin will possibly lose you the vote of every daughter, every big brother, did I mention every Mom as well?"
This is how much the GOP cares about this country -- pick someone totally unqualified to be on a ticket with a guy with one foot in the grave, because it will be 'hard for her to be attacked'.
The political equivalent of standing behind grandma with a squirt gun.
Sickening cowards.
MidPointMan: if you don't have a clue about legal issues then STFU! The Ledbetter v. Goodyear Tire & Rubber Co. case was about tolling of statutes of limitation under the anti-discrimination statutes until the victim could reasonably become aware that a tort had been committed. Standard tort law for decades.
The Court deliberately screwed workers because they hate workers' rights and are mindlessly pro-business in every application. Thus they ruled that the statute of limitations period related back to the time when the original injury occurred (i.e. when she was first hired) even though she never knew nor could have known until much later, because it was concealed for 18 years, that other male employees were getting much more pay for the same job.
The decision was so outrageous and in such flat contradiction to Congressional intent that Congress was moved to re-write the law.
And McCain voted AGAINST this law to overturn the outrageous and unfair Supreme Court case. This is part and parcel of Republican support for extremist judges who overturn decades of legal precedent and common sense in desperate attempts to legislate from the bench. Exactly what Conservatives complain about when Liberal judges do it.
No further comment from you about issues you know nothing about!
TROLLS
come on, the hubbie has claimed to be 1/8 Inuit [and that is pushing it].
IF you wanna call him a native american, fine - but that is a stretch. He is an american...
She is still a creationist loon
My favorite part of Hurburble's post is when he complains of anti-Semitism and then says Palin's husband is a "white guy" because he doesn't "look like" a Native American. What do you expect to see burble? A feathered headdress? A loin cloth?
Take a look at your own prejudices, hypocrite.
rhys: Reverend Wright is not an anti-semite.
PALIN IS NOW A KNOWN ANTI-SEMITE. suck it up!
@ Hurburble --
Dude, tone down the rhetoric or take it somewhere else. It's bad enough we have to deal with the ideolog trolls, but grow up.
Do the R posters here not know polls or just math? 'Obama's best polling day is out of the tracker'?
Huh?
5 day Gallup:
O 44 45 48 49 49
M 46 44 42 41 41
What this shows is +McCain's+ best days dropped out. The days events tracked in the last 3 days are: Tues, Weds, Thur., i.e. the convention events involving HRC, Bill, Biden, Obama. IOW, these number show the convention solidified Obama's D support AND it remained solidified thru his speech. Indeed, if anything, it suggests Obama got a 9-10 pt spread over McCain by Thurs (a +12+ pt bounce btw, starting with the M+2), since Tues's slightly lower numbers dragged the 3-day average down yet it was still even with Weds'.
What effect the rightwing religious lady who scrubbed her Wikipedia bio and its still so thin the 3rd line is she was a beauty contest runner-up and the Gustav convention will have remains to be seen.
But please, if you're going to post here at least +try+ to understand the subject.
Pat Buchanan is an isolationist, and MSNBC signs his checks.
I am no McCain die hard, trust me. He is more of a centrist than Obama ever was, however.
There is no evidence McCain is going to start any more wars. Talking tough is not the same as dropping bombs.
If you remember the Cold War, you understand that.
What Russia is doing should disturb anyone, and the idea that the US somehow caused this is a complete joke.
Russia wants its empire back, plain and simple. Checking them now means avoiding a bigger fight later.
We have to support the former Soviet Republics. They hate Russia so much and it would be disastrous for millions of people if Russia starts another war with them.
Being weak-kneed is more reckless that acknowledge what is real.
I am not sure Obama gets it.
"PALIN IS NOW A KNOWN ANTI-SEMITE."
Prove it or shut up, asshole.
Merely being associated with Pat Buchanan does NOT make Sarah Palin an anti-Semite.
You sully legitimate criticisms of her with this garbage.
@ Rhys --
Amen to that.
Andrew Sullivan on the Palin pick:
After the last eight years, do we really want a president who takes massive gambles, consulting with a tiny core of loyalists, without thinking through the consequences, and who hires unknown and untested people to run a government already badly mismanaged because they help his political coalition.
This is the third term of Goerge W. Bush - with less caution.
Says it all, really.
This is what the Presidential Scholars are saying:
John McCain was aiming to make history with his pick of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, and historians say he succeeded.
Presidential scholars say she appears to be the least experienced, least credentialed person to join a major-party ticket in the modern era.
So unconventional was McCain’s choice that it left students of the presidency literally “stunned,” in the words of Joel Goldstein, a St. Louis University law professor and scholar of the vice presidency. “Being governor of a small state for less than two years is not consistent with the normal criteria for determining who’s of presidential caliber,” said Goldstein.
“I think she is the most inexperienced person on a major party ticket in modern history,” said presidential historian Matthew Dallek.
That includes Spiro T. Agnew, Richard Nixon’s first vice president, who was governor of a medium-sized state, Maryland, for two years, and before that, executive of suburban Baltimore County, the expansive jurisdiction that borders and exceeds in population the city of Baltimore.
It also includes George H.W. Bush’s vice president, Indiana Sen. Dan Quayle, who had served in the House and Senate for 12 years before taking office. And it also includes New York Rep. Geraldine Ferraro, who served three terms in the House before Walter Mondale chose her in 1984 as the first woman candidate on a major party ticket.
“It would be one thing if she had only been governor for a year and a half, but prior to that she had not had major experience in public life,” said Dallek of Palin. “The fact that he would have to go to somebody who is clearly unqualified to be president makes Obama look like an elder statesman.”
What a joke of a pick, how little respect McCain for the USA citizens with this pick in stunning..
Nobody has ever cared about John McCain, he's an empty suit. The only acceptable option the Republicans had. So, the whole election has become a referendum n Obama. He won that referendum, sealing it with his speech on Thursday. But...there's still 66 days left. GOP not going to go down without a fight, trying to pull a fast one on us. With no credible experience to be VP, (she's admitted as much over the last couple of months), the only value she seems to bring is to rally the base on social issues. Her social values will turn off way more than 1/2 of the country. Too far in one direction is rarely acceptable to the majority of us. Since, there's no other way to define her. People will look at that. We have to have faith our country sees the forest for the trees and gets this one right. I know 40% of the country is Red and 40% is Blue pretty much no matter what, but folks this isn't a close call this time. The GOP is not offering us anything at all really. McCain reads talking points that have been developed over the last 30 years by the party. How about picking a qualified partner to run with you, say Fiorina, Hutchison, Whitman, Romney, Ridge, Lieberman, Crist, Rice. ENOUGH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
"There is no evidence that McCain is going to start any more wars." Please square this sentence with "Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran..." Thank you, sir.
Creationist in the twenty first century is the most damning thing I can think of. She might as well be a flat earth golden calf worshiper. I guess you nitwits can be pleased a fundy is on the ticket, but civilization is shuddering.
Morgan -
you are wrong...
5 day Gallup:
O 44 45 48 49 49
M 46 44 42 41 41
Today's polling says that the day that was dropped is the same as what was added yesterday, hence a stable result.
That means the stability adds a day that reflects the movement from first 2 days.
Yesterday was somewhere between the 44-46 day and the 45-44 day.
Basically yesterday was a tie.
You are spinning hard, but the laws of math are against you.
The surge to 48-42 will fall out tomorrow.
Your best day was the surge to 49-41, and that falls out on Monday.
By then we will be close to tied.
Burt said...
Andrew Sullivan on the Palin pick:
Thanks for this Burt:
"After the last eight years, do we really want a president who takes massive gambles, consulting with a tiny core of loyalists, without thinking through the consequences, and who hires unknown and untested people to run a government already badly mismanaged because they help his political coalition."
Andrew Sullivan is a conservative voice. David Gergen is as baffled and disturbed I think. He is also unbiased.
Palin is not a proven anti-semite, only alleged by some. If she truly is then McCain really screwed up, but that chance is like 0.01%
She will however be asked about her role with Buchanan b/c he is a lightning rod in the jewish community. Let's wait to see the answers compared to what Buchanan claims her role and support was in 1996 and 2000.
Midpointman: your analysis about where the polls are today based on where they were 3 days ago has one flaw. If polls did not change then today's sample is equal to the value of the sample 3 days ago is correct. But in Rasmussen case, for example the value of the sample 3 days ago was not -1. We do not know what it was. -1 was an average of the 3 days ending 3 days ago. My estimate based on Moor Penrose inverse was for Rassmussen about +2 and +5 for Gallup. In fact, I wrote that -1 is actually a good news. In fact, as Nate reported Rassmussen also confirmed that -1 average contained a last day (Michelle's speech I think) which was positive. Day after that has estimated value much higher for both. So if tomorrow both values do not change (Gallup stays at 8 and Rassmussen at 4) we should jump quite high with joy.
@ tim r --
Nice, except quoting Dallek can be tricky. He once wrote it was a tribute to the effectiveness of the Great Society that Medicare and Welfare were still largely intact. Not really -- anybody ever tried changing a large institution that millions of people depend on?
@ Midpointman --
You make valid points but you are playing into Obama's hand. This ain't the cold war. The Russia/Georgia situation isn't black and white.
We don't have to protect them. The fact that has escaped many people is that during the seventy years of Sovietization, the government forcefully moved Russians into each province. Russians make up a significant ethnic minority if not a majority of all of the ex-Soviet states. In some ways, it boils down to ethnic battles. And look at the ethnic battle we're mired in right now? And look how well the ethnic battle plays out in Israel?
People who keep thinking in the terms of Cold War don't get it. The real wars from now on will be fought economically on a global scale. We're losing them.
More from Maher on McCain and Palin:
"They're the Maverick and the MILF". McCain being a Maverick is complete baloney but Palin is a MILF.
McPOW is a compulsive gambler that favors the craps table. Palin is his last roll, all or nothing. This is emblematic of his poor judgment his entire life. A wild swing, a compulsive dangerous bet, he'll do the same as president. He is unfit for command.
Andrew Sullivan is conservative...
That is the biggest joke I have ever heard.
He says he is, but I cannot find adherence to a single conservative principle in anything he has said in 5 years.
He sold out to become a media darling...weak.
Gergen is no Conservative. He was just shocked by it, and is now justifying the fact that he called this so very badly.
When pundits are profoundly wrong, they make excuses.
This pick was a silver bullet pick, it does so many things.
It actually brings back the experience debate, and Palin is shockingly more experienced in many ways than Obama.
So everytime the Dems take the experience shot at her, they shoot Obama in the ass too, because she has actually enacted reforms in an Executive role, and against her own party.
He has done nothing remotely close to that. Zilch. He has never run a business, she did for 10 years.
Obama was a "community organizer" a job that sounds suspiciously like a Union Operative / Intimidator. That is actually exactly what it was.
He was Union Organizing...even union members hate those guys who come around making threats if they do not vote a certain way.
...oh the irony.
Overrated,
I kind of sensed that Palin was energizing conservatives. At first I thought it was just pollyannish optimism despite her very short record in major office, but as folks seemed so sincere I kind of figured that many were truly invigorated. If she can excel given the pressure that she will be under (especially with regards to national and foreign policy), it will be a significant accomplishment.
This sentence of yours was very interesting to me: "At the very least she resets the calculus on the future of the GOP." Since this pick, I've thought two things. First, the McCain folks didn't think that they could win, so they went with a long shot that would make the base happy and give them a chance at moderate women. Second, I figured that the GOP veterans who are running McCain's campaign were thinking about the future as much as the present. Of course, this is probably because I think McCain has very little chance to win, given all of the fundamentals and Obama's immense talent (remember that he has energized many liberals and moderates). I'm sure you don't see it that way.
Your comment also made me think more seriously about the future of the GOP. My dad is a lifelong Republican, but he is fiscal conservative, not a social conservative. He thought Palin was a terrible pick, though he will still vote for Obama. My dad lives in MI, and he is clearly a different kind of conservative than my neighbors here in the Shenandoah Valley, who are generally religious conservatives. The GOP primary was interesting this year because no candidate really appealed to all three GOP constituencies: cultural, fiscal, and security conservatives. I wonder if Palin becomes the standard bearer how much room there will be in the GOP for secular conservatives like my dad.
It seems like the GOP is now plagued by the fissures that the Democrats have long suffered from. Perhaps another Reagan-type figure will unite them. I, for one, wish that we had a more factional government so that people could choose representatives that really reflected their positions, rather than having to choose from one of two parties with whom you don't agree on many issues.
I think it's likely that the bounce Obama has picked up from the convention could be less temporary than previous elections. Judging by the timing of the bounce (immediately following the Hillary and Bill speeches, targeted at Clinton supporters), I would hazard to guess that a lot of that uptick came from Hillary supporters. If that is the case, I find it unlikely that they will abandon Obama in the short term. I think that the voters who were on the fence (but NOT because they previously supported Hillary) will erode somewhat but we should see a permanent increase in Obama's national numbers as a result. The best part about the added support, presuming it remains, is that it should harden Obama's recent leads in Florida and Ohio polling, both of which were taken before the convention.
Midpointman,
Keep spinning. If you keep posting that you might actaully believe it, novody else besides RepubliTards do.
Anti-semitism?.
How do you explain that?.
Anyone have any thoughts on how her pro-life (including rape and incest) stance will play in the swing states? I'd guess it'd hurt in Florida, though Joe Scarborough might disagree and hurt in Colorado. But what about Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and possibly Michigan. Any experts out there. I know it'd energize the Karl Rove, Pat Buchanon, Pat Robertson folks, but an extreme position might more subtly work against them. Any thoughts?
Well, MidPointMan is a good poster and i don´t remember he said that he vote McCain.
"Bad information is worse than no information."
All of the polling numbers for at least the next two weeks are bad information.
It doesn't matter who gets what bounce when, and there's no way to discern from daily tracking polls what portion of variations in daily numbers are due to "bounce" or announcements or just random noise.
What matters is the long-term picture. Regardless of "bounce", Obama did very well this past week. We'll see how McCain does, but choosing a VP who undercuts his entire campaign strategy is a pretty piss-poor move from where I sit (not that I'm complaining, mind you.)
..and another intersting thing.
Obama opposes the right of union members to vote by secret ballot.
Can you believe that? Opposing secret ballot invites so much corruption and intimidation.
Once Michigan realizes that, he will lose the state. Same with Ohio.
Union members hate this law that he is pushing for. Eventually McCain will go after him on it, but I think that is part of his closing strategy.
Todd Palin is a Union Member, and so was Sarah. He is an independent and so is their son.
That does not hurt her, it helps her.
...and amazingly the Evangelical right loves her.
Silver Bullet.
...you guys better watch yourselves with the Dan Quayle comments.
You are doing her the favor of lowering expectations. If he comes out and hands Biden his nuts, which could happen, you will be sorry you made that comparison.
Saying Palin is a Neo nazi or whatever...is almost like saying Obama is a black supremacist radical...because he goes to Jerimiah Wright's church. Let's not have that arguement.
BTW - neither the hubbie, Todd Oalin nor her oldest son, Track are registered Republicans.
also, I am waiting to find out if she was pregnant with Track when they suddenly got married...
I cannot locate a single reference to his exact BD. But according to my research [which is difficult since there is so liittle available yet] they got allegedly 'eloped' & got married by a preacher [with no witnesses available] apparently on 8/29/88 - which was 20 years to the day yesterday ? Her anniversary ?
Track graduated from HS in 2007 & enlisted in the army on 9/11/2007 - when he was already over 18 y/o.
He is now listed as 19, so doing the math in reverse and adding in 8 months for a pregnancy, that means he might have been either an immaculate conception or maybe a shotgun wedding... or else she got preggers on the first try ?
FWIW it is odd that the fail to note his BD...
wonder if the Enquirer will be hot on this 'story' of republican family values...
Inquiring minds want to know...
funny, they also do not refer to the kids as native americans... [1/16th blood]
FWIW
I have never said I will vote for McCain.
He is more centrist than Obama, and I admire the fact that Palin ran against an Republican crook and then fired his crooked cronies.
She is a Republican, but when she decides you are the enemy, it has little to do with what party you are in.
I like that. I like it a lot.
That said, I have issues with the Republicans.
If only the Libertarian Party was a serious threat...that is where you would find me.
Eric,
I think that, like every previous VP selection, there will be no discernible shift in the polls after a week or two. I mean, Gore picked a Jewish VP and he still virtually tied in Florida.
MidPoint i´ll vote libertarian. We are only two?.
Adam,
I think that was part of the reason he was almost tied in Florida instead of losing it by a couple points. I'm pretty sure that even Dole was competitive in Florida. It leans red.
I think Obama has no chance in Florida, he will focus on OH, CO and VA. And he shouldn´t win in OH if he takes all the Kerry states plus IA, NM and CO.
I think McCain have more work.
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