There's just one state poll out today. In Oklahoma, the latest Sooner Poll from the Tulsa World and KOTV has John McCain leading Barack Obama by 32 points, 56-24. This poll had last been in the field in late January, then showing McCain with a 28-point lead. There's not much that can be gathered from an Oklahoma poll, although it might auger poorly for any chance Obama might have to close the gap in states like Kansas, Arkansas, and Texas.
Meanwhile, we have two more days' worth of national tracking poll results to look at, and they continue to show a nearly-tied race, as both Gallup and Rasmussen have Barack Obama ahead by just a single percentage point. Obama's win percentage has ticked downward slightly as a result -- from 67.6 percent on Friday to 66.1 percent today -- but the model will need more confirmation from other state and national polling before a larger correction takes place.
8.03.2008
Today's Polls, 8/3
@ 5:28 PM
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Well I must say, it looks like Obama's numbers has plateaued on the Super Tracker!
Yes, there was just one state poll today, but there was also one yesterday which you haven;t included yet.
McCain up 45-40 in FL.
http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz/2008/08/new-florida-pol.html
Open question about two big developments this weekend.
1. I don't think it's a coincidence that Obama opened up to offshore drilling as part of a "comprehensive bipartisan solution" after Congress left for summer break.
2. What the hell is Obama thinking by arguing for full voting rights for MI/FL delegates? Sure, it might assuage some of the voters who feel disenfranchised, but will it simply enrage the Clintonites, who were just starting to settle down this past week? I think the expression "let sleeping dogs lie" would have been apropos here.
It seems that Obama has basically adopted pragmatism over principles, but unfortunately, I don't think Joe SixPack is that nuanced. It's going to be interesting to see how this is going to play out in the either the national polls or in MI/FL.
He convienently misses polls that aren't favorable to Obama.
Wow, 44-45% seems to Obama's floor and McCain's ceiling. Good news for Obama.
It will be interesting to watch how voters react to MCain's increasingly shrill and negative campaigning. I am sure families worried about jobs, healthcare and endless tax breaks for Big Oil are reassured by McCain's "Britney" ads.
"augur" not "auger"
Obama's Biggest Weakness
I started watching presidential politics in 2004, the Kerry campaign. After watching the events of that campaign unfold I realized why democrats have such a hard tome winning Presidential elections and have no problem winning house and senate elections. There are two major reasons.
1. The Republicans have no ground rules for winning the election. Anything goes. If you can get away with it, and it helps your chances, do it. The last two weeks with Senator McCain are perfect examples. The republicans are not interested in fact, they are not interested in fairness, they are not interested in truth. Any angle that helps them win is acceptable.
Two things have to happen for this to be allowed. First the public must view this as acceptable, or it would stop immediately due to backlash. And second, the media must stand aside and not call this for what it is. Both of these conditions exist in todays America. This week I have heard on numerous occasions how sad this campaign is becoming, and they give equal blame to both sides, so there is no incentive to play fair. I'm not old enough to know when this started, or why its accepted, but it is.
The Democrats in contrast believe in standards. Barack Obama is the perfect example this year. He has run very few attack ads and virtually no low ball tactics. In Most other countries this is deemed as integrity and courage, but not in America. Democrats don't like attacking, and for the most part don't do it. And thus the morally superior party gets no credit for its principles, and is often called weak for its non-action.
2. The second reason the democrats lose Presidential elections is the media. The 24 hour news networks (FOX, CNN, MSNBC) gave up covering news a long time ago. Now they are more of an op-ed styled newspaper, where they get 2-4 journalists/political analysts to discuss and give there opinion of the days news events. This subtle change in coverage from fact based to opinion based news, along with their 24 /7 apatite has created a monster. This beast needs conflict, hot button issues to keep eye balls watching to make income for their bottom line. Since many Americans get their political information from these networks they have become a necessary campaign tool, and thus lies the distinction between the two parties.
This beast is no longer interested in truth, just covering the story with participants from both sides to analyze it. This way they can remain non-partial. Knowing this, it has become in the interest of campaigns to try and control this beast and the republicans do it masterfully, while the democrats sensibilities hold them back.
Any story with outrage or conflict , that will keep those eyeballs peeled is considered news worthy and goes on air. So to control the message, the campaign will be sure to create conflict and outrage whenever possible to control the narrative. Republicans do this well. Since anything goes, they will make charges, issue statements, or release commercials who's entire purpose is to garner media time from this 24 hour beast regardless of the veracity of the charge.
This weeks "He played the Race Card" is the perfect example. Obama said these comments the previous day at three different venues, all covered with press people and no one gave any of it a second thought. Hundreds or reporters and millions of viewers and nobody saw anything objectionable, and neither did the McCain campaign. However, the next day, 24 hours later a statement comes out of the McCain campaign accusing Obama of playing the race card, and the beast can't control itself. No issue is as provocative as race, and they kick into full gear with hour after hour coverage on multiple networks for 4-5 days. Analyzed and re-analyzed over and over by anyone with an opinion, all over something no-one though twice about the day before. This was obviously a tactic by the McCain campaign, and it worked brilliantly. Obama who is the subject of very low minded smear campaigns, is now the race baiter, while the McCain campaign who's side the samears came from is the innocent victim.
Herein lies Obama's greatest weakness. In his effort to conduct a civil campaign with none of the outrage and angst of the republicans, he has completely conceded this huge advantage to the them. While he talks issues, they show fake outrage, scurrilous attacks, and deceitful ads all for the media's benefit. Many have stated how Obama gets all the press. Yes he does. And the vast majority of it is negative, save his trip oversees when the media was more interested in that than McCain camp nonsense. Obama has lost 5 points in the polls since June, and nothing has happened other than relentless McCain driven press coverage. Thats the power of the press. If Obama continues to run a high minded campaign, he will continue to be the candidate of honor and integrity, and no one will know about it because the media will be too busy covering the latest scuralous attack against him. Barack must find a way to get the media's attention focused on what he wants it focused on, or this election that he has no business losing, may slip away.
State polls are irrelevant now. With the nationals tied this is a plus 5 EV lead for either candidate.
You are fooling yourself Nate. You are hoping for the nationals improve for Obama before anyone notices.
hey NC moderate, I think you missed one of Howard Dean's talking points.
You missed....oops, nevermind...you got em all.
@DesiNotADoc
Adjust your glasses, it shows a slight upward trend.
Nate, do you have any indication as to why the trackers are consistently reporting lower than the state and other national polls?
Well, the damage from this week seems to have run its course, and if I've been reading these super-trackers right, I would bet Obama is up by 2 tomorrow in Gallup's poll.
Now is a good time for Obama to unleash an attack ad that will get played bright and early by the media. How about "Social Security is a Disgrace" clip from McCain with the narrator saying "not every old person in America has a mega-rich trophy spouse to support them in their golden years."
Jack -
The main point of this site is the state by state polls. National polling wasn't even put in here until a bit ago.
Actually even if it would be 5 EV gap if the election was held today is irrelevant to what this site tries to project.
Obama's biggest weakness is that he is a shameless flip-flopper even for a politician. McCain flip-flops but there are 4 or 5 core principles that he is steadfast (spending restraint, comprehensive immigration reform, muscular foreign policy, campaign finance reform, etc.) Obama's recent flip-flop on drilling is going to do him more harm than good.
As for playing the race card, that was pretty much a transparent gambit on his part and Axelrod admitted as such on Friday morning. Obama is a Chicago pol and they are as rough-and-tumble as any politician.
When looking at the polling, Obama must be thought of as the incumbent due to the inordinate amount of coverage he has received this year vs. McCain. If anything, the late breakers will go to McCain. Obama will have to have the deal sealed by mid-October since if he has not done it by then, there is really no mechanism for him to close the sale at this point.
Jack, you are a little optimistic for now. Obama would probably win a close but undisputed victory if the election were held today (probably 293-245 or thereabouts). However, he is the weakest candidate we could have nominated this time around (excluding Edwards and his paramour). Richardson would have probably won 300 EV +/- 10, Clinton would have won 325 EV +/- 15 and even a blowhard like Biden would probably have had not too much difficulty getting to 270. This is a Democratic year, all our nominee had to be was acceptable.
Actually, I'd actually like to see a period of time in which McCain pulls ahead in the national polls to change the dynamic a bit.
http://www.newsweek.com/id/150479
Howard Fineman on how Obama tries to win the south:
For Berry, the Obama organizer, the key is not to come off as an alien "penetrating" force, but as an unassuming fellow eager to help the locals unlock neighbor to-neighbor sentiments in a region that the GOP has long taken for granted. "There are lots of disgruntled Republicans coming to us," he says. As the McCain campaign counterattacks—calling Obama every name in the book—Berry will have to rely on his new network idea—"that friends will tell friends: we believe in Barack, so it's OK if you do, too."
Obama's biggest weakness is that he is a shameless flip-flopper even for a politician. McCain flip-flops but there are 4 or 5 core principles that he is steadfast (spending restraint, comprehensive immigration reform, muscular foreign policy, campaign finance reform, etc.) Obama's recent flip-flop on drilling is going to do him more harm than good.
Except that the core principles you mention McCain has flopped on all fo them. He is for spending restraint except for the lack of funding for a war that will last nearly forever as he refuses to define victory. He was for comprehensive immigration reform until he started campaigning for President. He was for campaign finance reform until his campaign violated the very rules that he wrote.
So yes, he's for muscular foreign policy that considers Reagan talking to Gorbachev surrender.
This next week will say alot. Will McCain's negatvism stick with lowered OBama poll numbers, or will it back fire? Will drilling help Obama?
The client list of the FL pollster
Presidential: Dole for President (Primary & General)
U.S. Senate: Over 10 Republican Senators
U.S. Congress: Over 30 Republican Congressmen
Statewide: Numerous Republican Governors and other officials
Local: Numerous Republican Mayors, County Officials, other local leaders
Party Organizations: Numerous Statewide and Local Republican Headquarters
Is this an internal pollsterß
I don´t know...
I was hoping to hear some thoughts on what effect, if any, Eric Cantor (R) from Virginia might have on the election should McCain choose him as his VP. While it's more than likely just a way for the campaign to generate news, it is an intriguing choice. Apparently, he's squeaky clean and very socially conservative. He also happens to be Jewish, and I have to believe that's useful in any state with a sizeable Jewish population (FL comes to mind).
And although there's been ample discussion regarding a VP's effect on his home state, in a close race, hat has to count for something (especially with VA being a toss-up).
He seems like a much better version of Lieberman for the Republicans.
Doesn't hurt, possibly helps, and doesn't overshadow. I was hoping the Republicans picked Pawlenty - Cantor seems more electorally formidable.
And so it begins... watch McCain's positives and national tracking numbers trend down over coming days because of the Brittney and Messiah ads. People who are struggling in this economy take such nonsense deeply personally, and they are not amused. I sense a slow burn setting in across the country.... a nationwide feeling of "Just how dumb do they think we are? And does McCain even give a damn about what we're dealing with?"
Big, BIG mistake.
Historically those two ads will be looked back on as a determining moment in this campaign.
I discuss politics on a couple of car boards just to get a sense of what is out there. These guys are generally not Obama folks, but they hated those two ads.
Filibuster might be right.
NJ Moderate writes:
Obama would probably win a close but undisputed victory if the election were held today (probably 293-245 or thereabouts). However, he is the weakest candidate we could have nominated this time around (excluding Edwards and his paramour). Richardson would have probably won 300 EV +/- 10, Clinton would have won 325 EV +/- 15 and even a blowhard like Biden would probably have had not too much difficulty getting to 270. This is a Democratic year, all our nominee had to be was acceptable.
There's a reason that Obama, rather than Clinton/Richardson/Biden, won the nomination and that is because he is the best politician of the bunch; and the fact that he's the best politician means that he's best able to beat the Republicans. Obama is the most organized, he's the best fund raiser, he's best able to energize the base, he's quicker to respond to smears, he comes off as more likeable. The guy is a talent and until the Democrats got a guy (or gal) with talent they were doomed to lose.
The Democrats and Republicans are fighting the same battles they always fight. Finally, though, the Democrats have someone who can win the fight.
Hey thanks, Fred.
And since I'm batting 1000 today, I'm going to make my VP pick.
Based on my own model of offsetting personality traits, I think Obama needs a down-to-earth, blue denim, meat and potatoes kind of guy... one who's not a celebrity and has strong creds in energy policy.
And who is that guy?
Schweitzer, the Montana Mountain Man! Expect him to be named the week of August 11.
I love Obama, but Clinton is better at everything, except fundraising.
Tai said... What the hell is Obama thinking by arguing for full voting rights for MI/FL delegates? I think the expression "let sleeping dogs lie" would have been apropos here.
Obama is stuck between a rock and a hard place on this one. Michigan and Florida are both swing states with many electorals that went several points to McCain after the whole electorates debacle. He needs to convince these voters they weren't left out.
MATT J. H. said... The Republicans have no ground rules for winning the election. Anything goes.... The Democrats in contrast believe in standards
This is the party who received the first and frequent support from the 527's (i.e., MoveOn.org), and did nothing to criticize them until Swiftboats came along (i.e., things went against their favor). Or that had their favorite presidential candidate emphatically state he would accept public financing only to forgo it when it was clear the could make money. Or, for that matter, that regularly applauds when the judiciary overrides the legislature in its favor with issues that are completely unaddressed in the constitution and are highly unsupported by the American people. I could list plenty of other examples. Seriously, the Democrats have plenty of things going for them, but playing by the rules more than the Republicans is not one of them.
JoelW said... Nate, do you have any indication as to why the trackers are consistently reporting lower than the state and other national polls?
I have my own theory: Obama's overseas trip was received differently by different populations in the US: some people really liked it, some really didn't like it (yes, there are those of us out there who think it takes chutzpah for a senator of less than 3 years with no experience to indirectly compare himself to JFK and Reagan). Much like Florida has highly varied results due to its varying demography, perhaps this is happening on a national scale. Anyone agree with my theory on this?
NJ_Moderate said... Obama's biggest weakness is that he is a shameless flip-flopper even for a politician.
Now that would be an insult to both John Kerry and Mitt Romney. Yes, he's shifted a bit, but flip flopped? No.
NH_Moderate said... If anything, the late breakers will go to McCain.
That remains to be seen. Don't forget the Iraq factor.
fred said...
I love Obama, but Clinton is better at everything, except fundraising.
And winning Democratic nominations, it seems.
Sorry, but it had to be said.
The Jewish population is quite staunchly Democrat as a group. I doubt that Eric Cantor is enough reason to sway very many of them to McCain.
I wonder if Nate has calculated how far down in the national polls Obama could go and still get 270 EV. I would prefer he win nationally but even a 'minority' winner beats a loser!
And winning Democratic nominations, it seems.
And inspiring, exciting, and registring new voters.
Picking Eric Cantor would change the direction of the race, that's for sure.
One of the most troubling aspects of close national numbers is that much of his support is heavily concentrated in states like California, New York, and Illinois. Filter that out and he could be trailing. The only counter to that is heavy McCain support in red states, but those tend to be smaller.
The drilling issue has hurt Obama.
Mule Rider writes:
Want an example of a pretty egregious statement?
It wasn't made during a campaign necessarily, but the comment did come from the chairman of the DNC, Howard Dean...for those interested, see what Mr. Dean said about the Supreme Court decision Kelo vs. City of New London. Then come back and tell me the head of the Democratic National Committee is an honest man about politics.
I'll agree with you that Dean's statement was egregious, but I don't think that it's dishonest. Stupid and ill-informed, perhaps, but I don't see how it's dishonest.
The New London dispute, by the way, is yet another example of the age old debate about what happens when property rights conflict with the common good. Tomorrow, for example, I'm going to a town hall hearing about whether a certain property owner has the right to cut down a tree that's been part of the neighborhood for forty years. The politician who always sides with property owners in this sort of quibble is an idealogue; but the politician who always sides with the 'common good' is an authoritarian.
Obama is stuck between a rock and a hard place on this one. Michigan and Florida are both swing states with many electorals that went several points to McCain after the whole electorates debacle. He needs to convince these voters they weren't left out.
I understand that he's trying to negate the disenfranchisement criticism, but the olive branch should have been extended in May, or at the latest in Unity, when the outcome (w/ the exception of the popular) not in jeopardy. To do it now, after a couple of polls indicating tightening in the two states, and sagging national polls, just reeks of pandering and desperation. IMO, this move, when combined with the $1k energy rebate (gas tax holiday squared) and the oil drilling compromise, makes for a bad weekend...
The blowback against McCain's Low Road express has come from some surprising sources, including Republicans Kathy Hilton, Mike Murphy, John Weaver and Mel Martinez.
The Obamas expected a short -term dip in the polls following the Europe trip, since the press coverage was overwhelmingly negative and they knew McCain was planning a week of Rove-style attack ads.
I do not have a crystal ball, so this is all spec. It really depends if the story becomes McCains' relentlessly sour, shallow and bitter attacks or Obama's caricatured weaknesses being adopted by the public. We already know the MSM are going to adopt the McCain/Rove/Schmidt/Davis talking point of the day. The question is, how effectively do Obama, the liberal blogosphere and his legions of far more enthusiastic volunteers respond. Before I finish, want to go check Dowd's latest superciliousness and see if it is easy to predict a slam Obama as a wussy arugula-eating egotist column...yup...nary a line on McCain except as part of Obama as Mr. Darcy in Pride and Prejudice. Sigh...Dowd puts super in ficial.
I think the MSM have settled on the simple narrative that Rove concocted. Obama is the dazzling, handsome, charismatic guy who gets the beautiful girl and mocks us, whereas McCain is the rough-hewn, foulmouthed old sea salt who gives us "straight talk" (despites the 70 and counting flip flops he has executed the last 4 years).
Obama is far more gifted and McCain is less gifted than their respective counterparts in 2004, but Obama will be battling the relentless headwind of MSM and right wing air machine caricature and innuendo. I see this race as far closer popular vote wise than EV-wise
Popular vote result on election day is probably pretty close to Nate's current prediction, 49-46 Obama, with maybe 3% for Barr and 2% for Nader.
Second likeliest is an Obama EV blowout
Third an Obama squeaker
Fourth McCain squeaker
I give odds of 40% 30% 20% 10% for each of these, a prediction of course, like all of ours, that has about as much value as the cyber paper it is written on;=}
Not one of Dean's proudest moments. But worse than, say, when McCain said that Iran was training Al-Qaeda in Iraq? That's another statement that may have been an honest mistake, or may have been less honest and less of a mistake (especially given that it wasn't the first time he'd made this particular mistake).
Bottom line? If you're going to wait until there's a group of politicians who say only intelligent and honest things, you'll be waiting a long time. In my view (and I suspect most people on both sides would agree on this part at least) it's better to support the group you think are more intelligent and more honest, and whose policies you prefer. If you're really upset about dishonesty or stupidity in political life, better to get involved in politics yourself (in whatever way you can) than merely to carp at everyone else.
The drilling issue has hurt Obama.
Yes, it has, though it's hurt McCain too in Alaska. They're both stuck into unpopular positions, lest they should be accused of flip-flopping. Though this if course begs the question: is it any more wrong for them to change their position in light of new events than the large percentage of the American pubic who did the same?
Of course, the drilling issue will hurt Obama more than McCain simply due to party affiliation and because Obama is generally more anti-drilling than his opponent.
jakam,
Not to mention Cantor is a full on Zionist (and therefore, according to UN Resolution 3379, a racist), while most American Jews are much more moderate.
fred writes:
I discuss politics on a couple of car boards just to get a sense of what is out there.
...which is a good reason for me to discuss cars on a political board!
Yesterday I had a discussion with a neighbor:
NEIGHBOR: I see that (another neighbor) followed your lead and brought a Prius.
ME: Are you getting one too?
NEIGHBOR: I'm holding out for something really radical. I want a car that doesn't use gasoline at all.
ME: We're getting closer to that, thanks to high gas prices. When the cost of fuel was low people went out and bought SUV's -- and the environment will suffer for it. Now that prices are high, people are driving less, and buying more fuel efficient cars. On top of that, car companies are investing in research for alternative energy.
NEIGHBOR: If it was up to me, I'd raise the tax on gas.
ME: If it was up to me I'd triple it -- or quadruple it. No point in letting the oil companies hog all the profits.
Somehow, I get the feeling that you don't get conversations like that over at McCain headquarters.
mule, I think the two statements are more similar than that.
I think it matters which group of assholes are which -- because for McCain falsely to link Al-Qaeda to Iran seems like part of the case for war with Iran.
We've had one war fought over WMD's that didn't actually exist and false claims of ties to Al-Qaeda. I don't want another, and McCain's "mistake" feeds into making that war more likely, in a fact-free but potent way.
Mule Rider writes:
[T]he 4 dissenting justices were Scalia, Thomas, Rehnquist, and O'Connor. Three "right-wingers" and a moderate. All of the "liberal" judges upheld the decision.
That's why Dean's comment was so stupid. If you're a conservative idealogue you'd be horrified at the idea of the government taking a person's property in order to advance somebody's commercial interests.
If you're like me, though, (and a majority of the justices) you realize that there are times when the government needs to exert just that sort of influence. Obviously, most people are terrified that if you give government that power they'll use it unwisely.
...and the beat goes on!
Michael writes:
Before I finish, want to go check Dowd's latest superciliousness and see if it is easy to predict a slam Obama as a wussy arugula-eating egotist column...yup...nary a line on McCain except as part of Obama as Mr. Darcy in Pride and Prejudice. Sigh...Dowd puts super in ficial.
Adam Reilly has the cover story in this week's Boston Phoenix. It's all about the way the press has gone along with the right wing's narrative that Obama's an uppity so-and-so. I'm sure you'll enjoy the read.
I was trying to find some statistics about Jewish voting patterns, and was surprised by what I found. I had no idea that Reagan got 39% of the Jewish vote in 1980! Bush Sr. got 35% in 1988. Compare this to W's 24% in 2004.
Kinda surprised that Truman didn't do better, as I thought he was the one who made the decision to recognize the nation state of Israel.
Cantor clearly won't give McCain a majority of Jewish voters, but given the Muslim-nonsense surrounding Obama, a percent here or there in a tight race will make an impact.
Sources:
http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/US-Israel/jewvote.html
http://www.thesolomonproject.org/jewishvote.pdf
The map, according to Nate's Win% numbers, looks just like it did yesterday. Of course, Michigan is perilously close to moving from Obama's column to 'tossup' -- and New Hampshire isn't far behind.
Obama could use some good poll numbers.
Thank you for what should be required reading, Paul Bradford. The MSM have been utterly complicitous in pushing the Rove talking points on Obama's uppityness. Like David Gergen said today, they don't need to mention race, as arrogant, elitist, presumptuous do the trick. I think any decent reporter should be taking their cue from this article and calling the MSM and their slavish and knee jerk parrotting of the McCain meme of the day. I defy anyone to find one evenly mildly egotistical quote from Obama that wasn't said in self-mocking jest (other than Dana Milbank's fabricated one) and what could be more beneath contempt than the false "race card" charge by McCain that allowed them to remind everyone of Obama's race one more time. This sad charade has been played out since the rise of Bush 1 and is loathsome and transparently cynical. I am hopeful that the combination of Obama's gifts, enthusiastic supporters, and some semblance of a blowback from the liberal blogosphere, readers/viewers and honest brokers like Gergen and John Weaver will keep the press a little more honest this time, though don't hold your breath for Maureen Dowd and company to come around. The day she writes a scathing dissection of McCain is the day you know the MSM has decided to play it a little more straight up. She and ABC are the canaries in the coal mine of corporate media for how they are going to spin it.
As for the Michigan status, take heart. EVERY poll since 5/27 has had Obama ahead by between 2 and 9, so it starts to be like the national polls. As many have pointed out, if 150 straight polls show Obama ahead or tied nationally, and McCain not bumping above 45 % in any of them, it is reasonable to conclude that Obama is ahead.
More interesting to me is Rasmussen, not always the most favorable poll to Obama (party id controversy) only has Mccain up 52-44 in TEXAS. If McCain has to throw resources there, he is toast.
--
It's not surprising that Texas is 52-44 McCain, Texas is a majority minority state. Hispanics + Blacks outnumber Whites in Texas, so that explains why it seems close. But as history shows, Hispanics and Blacks can't be dependend upon when it comes to election day.
I also find it ridiculous how for the past 6-7 months any state that votes against Obama is full or racist rednecks who screw their sisters/cousins. At least one person seems to say it each time a poll or return shows Obama behind.
The asymmetrical warfare of politics requires a constant struggle for initiative - as one saying goes, if you're responding you're losing.
You can't win a presidential race by coasting, or only saying non-controversial things, because it leaves you open to your attacker making a big stink about nothing and hijacking the news cycle. To wit, McCain's latest "race card" BS.
Obama would be best served by doing anything and everything to pivot public discourse AWAY from the subject of race. By it's nature, race is divisive, and it's a lose-lose for him - the more he implies it matters, the more it corrodes his ability to unify the country under a message of hope.
Obama has been pretty good about making subtle attacks to provoke his opponents into overreacting - like he did with the "confused" comment about McCain - this worked for Obama because, despite talk of a backlash, all it did was reinforce how important age was as an issue and put the target on McCain's back for once.
As long as this race is "about Obama" McCain with skate, and continue to be seen as the default "low-risk" candidate, making Obama the hi-risk choice by implication. Obama and his surrogates have to shift public discourse back onto why McCain is unfit to lead the country, and it can't be because he's a "racist" because all that does is reinforce perceptions in the minds of white voters that Obama is a bigger risk. In other words, McCain might be hurt in a backlash over the racial thing, but backlashes don't win elections and I think Obama will be hurt more and more if race continues to become an issue.
So FWIW, I think Obama should pivot hard and go back to subtly provoking McCain to take a defensive stance. Piss him off and watch him overreact, and then hit him on the issues.
"hey NC moderate, I think you missed one of Howard Dean's talking points.
You missed....oops, nevermind...you got em all."
Thanks for the compliment, "Pete Kent"
mule,
The people who vote against Obama vote against people who are not "like them" right?
Note I did not mention race, but you did.
Indeed, when it comes to racism, for those of you in the McCain camp, methinks thou doth protest too much :)
It's very simple. A shrill sounding Obama opened up the race issue. McCain called him on it. I don't see how a fair minded person could possibly see it any other way.
I'd rather Oby campaigned in Oklahoma than pandering to various 'communities' in Florida. Get in touch with the heartlands. By the way, it's augur not auger, which I think is some kind of boring tool (much like the supertracker).
souter:
Because it's not like McCain didn't have an ad last June where he made fun of what Barack would look like on a dollar bill or anything.
I'm growing very fond of the weatherchicken.
Obama's playing of the race card will continue to percolate all week. The meme seems to be he gets the blame.
The most interesting development of the weekend (the Friday surprise) was Obama's trying to open up some wiggle room on drilling.
It will be a loser for him, and could make the about face on FISA look like a dress rehearsal.
Also, he has firmly declared that he will not participate on any of the additional townhalls with McCain. The meme is that Obama is reluctant to meet with the people and continues to hide behind a teleprompter. If that persists his Invesco field speech will be at best a curiosity and at worst a liability.
Many here think McCain sounds shrill and negative and that that is turning off voters. I see it differently.
this clumsy campaign of McCain’s has managed in a single week to turn Obama's biggest strengths into weaknesses and to trap him into the flip flop of all flip flops on the issue that the people seem to care about the most.
On this basis I expect that the tracking polls should flip this week and give McCain his first lead in a long time.
On a side note, Cantor is a curious name to float. I find it hard to believe that he would add anything to the ticket that Lieberman’s staunch support does not already contribute. Truthfully, I don't know much about him.
My pick remains Rob Portman who did an excellent job on Late Edition this AM.
Pete, the drilling issue is a winner for Obama. First, it doesn't enrage his base like FISA did. Second, it will be seen not as a capitulation but a negotiating ploy, as in "You want A and I want C, but Im prepared to accept B if you give me a bit of C and I'll allow you a bit of A."
That is not a loser. In fact, it's the kind of reasonable give-and-take the whole country is starving for. It was brilliant of Obama to get there first.
No wonder he drives McCain nuts. This campaign is like watching one of those old Roadrunner and Wile. E Coyote cartoons. Every time poor Wile E. cranks up the Acme Roadrunner Destroyer, that clever bird just races past him again, going "Beep beep!"
SO demoralizing!
"Pete Kent"
"Obama's playing of the race card will continue to percolate all week"
You mean McCain's playing of the "like them " card. McCain has switched to a more subtle technique of referring to people "like them" to refer to Obama and yet not use the dreaded "r-word." Google obama and "too thin" for details.
Good post, filistro. I love the Wile E. Coyote reference.
"You want A and I want C, but Im prepared to accept B if you give me a bit of C and I'll allow you a bit of A."
I understand that the Obama was trying to engage in a bipartisan compromise with the Gang of Ten. However, when Joe Six Pack looks up "nuance" in his dictionary, it reads "flip flop."
It was brilliant of Obama to get there first.
Actually, John McCain flip-flopped on it first, but was able to negate his backtrack using the guise of national security, which resonates a hell of a lot better than a compromise.
This is not 1980 folks! To think BO is the 1980 RR is absurd. The dem candidate is Barack Obama...say that a few times and then think of your typical American voter...ain't gonna happen folks. Wake up, Nate! Your forecasting is wacked....Clinton would be winning this thing by 15 pts at this pt in the election. Ohio and Fl would be 10 pts on her side. Swing votes are going to side with McCain in Nov. Obama has not even finished his first term in the Senate. He has been running for Pres longer than he has been a senator. What a joke. He was fixing parking tixs in the Ill senate a few yrs back. Quit drinking the Kool-aid. The Pres race is a dead-heat and you guys are celebrating the fact that Obama is "holding his own" in the national polls. He should be killing Bush/McSame at this pt.
SunnyD: Obama´s willingness to negotiate totally disrupts republicans. They have gone all-in on the "drilling solves everything" standpoint. Now they´ll have to give in on anything reasonable Obama wants or come away as hypocrites. It´s a total win-win for Obama.
Obama's flip on drilling is another chip away in his claim to be a "change" candidate. The Left is not happy with his cave. It will further erode the "energy" that the youth and enviro libs share for his original stance. BO is morphing into a typical pol...watch the "energy" fade..........
Mule Rider:
I'm interested to hear how Dean is "dishonest" describing the court as dominated by Republican appointees when 7 of the 9 people on the court were appointed by Republicans. Breyer and Ginsburg are the only Dem-appointed justices on the court.
I mean, of all the dishonesty flying through the air these days, this hardly seems like the kind of thing that would attract the attention of anybody but the most die-hard Dem-hater.
Oh, now I see why you've brought it up. After all, it's not relevant in the slightest to the main post, or the general theme of the site.
Note the Oklahoma resident in the Tulsa World article about the Sooner Poll who said he's voting against Barack but assumes he will win to fulfill endtimes prophecy about the antichrist leading to Armageddon.
"The One" ad plays into this speculation without using the word "antichrist." There are over a million search results now for "Obama" and "antichrist."
ursula said...
Yes, there was just one state poll today, but there was also one yesterday which you haven;t included yet.
McCain up 45-40 in FL.
http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz/2008/08/new-florida-pol.html
I remain skeptical that Obama can carry Florida, but a poll sponsored by the Florida Chamber of Commerce conducted by one of the pre-eminent GOP pollsters is, ahem, "suspect" to say the least.
As far as Oklahoma is concerned, being a born and bred Okie, I have to say that any state that elects James Inhofe to public office only reinforces its image as not the sharpest knife in the drawer.
There's a new PPP poll up that gives McCain a big lead. You can see my analysis of their mostly-accurate party-ID here.
I stayed at this site because I thought numbers were one thing that kept trolls away. How foolish I was. The comments on this site have become ridiculous and offensive. I'm leaving.
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