Sort of the calm before the storm here in Denver, where I'm fired up and ready to go take a nap.
Three firms snuck polls in overnight. Here in Colorado, Suffolk University has Barack Obama ahead by 5 points. I think a touch of skepticism is warranted about this poll, simply because Suffolk has never before polled Colorado, but we certainly have a wide mix of polling in Colorado, with no fewer than seven firms having released numbers within the past couple weeks. It all points toward a toss-up, perhaps just slightly tilting toward Barack Obama.
In Michigan, the EPIC-MRA poll for the Detroit News has Obama ahead by 2, the same margin he held last month. Obama's win percentage moved down a bit in Michigan, not necessarily because of this poll, but because the house effects adjustment that we introduced this morning took a couple of points off the very favorable (+7) poll that he got from Ann Selzer last week.
And in Ohio, the Columbus Dispatch poll has made its first appearance, showing John McCain ahead 42-41. The Columbus Dispatch poll, which is conducted by forms mailed out to registered voters and voluntarily returned by mail, is infamous for being the lowest-rated poll in our database, having held the bottom spot since the Nauoo Expositor poll, which was conducted by carrier pigeon, was officially discontinued after mistakenly having projected a landslide victory for the Constitutional Union party in the election of 1860.
8.25.2008
Today's Polls, 8/25
@ 2:27 PM
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119 comments
So that explains why it has so little weight despite 1800 respondents. Speaking of which, how would the 1936 Literary Digest poll rate?
Nice to see the numbers (and graphs. Pretty colourful graphs) start to shift back to a healthier state for Obama. Going to be a very interesting few weeks.
There are now about 20 simulations which have McCain winning about 525 EVs
Should we be worried?
Hating on carrier pigeons? That's soooo elitist.
With no bounce for VP anouncement for Obama, once McCain moves ahead, he will stay there and win. He only has to avoid mistakes now and he will win easily.
Only three four left in play: Colorado, New Mexico, Michigan and NH. Everything else is locked in.
NATE
Thanks for the excellent analysis on the 'house effects'.
I might quibble that your adjustments are on the conservative side, but at least this is now a known variable that can be recognized & addressed in analyzing the data.
Glad to hear that you are...
FIRED UP & READY TO GO !!!
Nate:
I think you mean Nauvoo Expositor
What Florida was in 2000 and Ohio was in 2004, Virginia is shaping up to be this year.
Mule Rider, I realize you have to make a living, but you'll find the GOP pedophiles that you service don't hang out much here, unless you're hoping to earn a couple of quick bucks from DarienCrow and jack black. Why not go back to your old method of posting your number on the phone booths by the GOP convention?
I work in the news industry and got a chance a couple of years ago to hear the Columbus Dispatch's publisher speak about politics, polling, and endorsements.
Some of it was, IMO, cringeworthy.
It really is a pretty good newspaper, not as good as The Plain Dealer and perhaps a bit below the Cincinnati Enquirer, but a lot of these polls don't really help its image.
All that said, McCain +1 in Ohio seems about right. So who knows?
Why even include Columbus Dispatch / Zogby Interactive polls at all?
And I've been demanding a new poll of Delaware for months now. Maybe with Biden on the ticket, I'll finally get my wish.
I found he CO poll interesting not so much for the top line, which was pretty close to the MOE, but for the way the leaners broke: five to 2 in favor of McCain, repeating a pattern we have seen in numerous other close states. Again this sort of thing may prefigure a McCain surge on Election Day along with the high number of undecideds that also often broke heavily against Obama in the primaries.
That hilarious on the Columbus Dispatch. I saw that one posted on pollster.com and was skeptical right away about the voluntary mail forms. Just strange.
Jack-be-nimble said...
With no bounce for VP anouncement for Obama, once McCain moves ahead, he will stay there and win.
Mr. Nimble... see that big padded envelope on your desk? The one adorned with the Disney cartoon characters?
Well, that's your GOP Talking Points guide for this week. Open it. Study it. Use it.
The GOP anticipates a 15 POINT BOUNCE from the convention for Obama.
Got that? 15 POINTS.
You are dismissed. Now get to work, soldier!
I might be getting greedy for asking this, but I think it would be interesting to see an animated gif (or some other form of animation) of the bigmap.png. It would be interesting to see the blue and red creep back and forth across the map!
McCain will win because Obama stole the election from Hillary and us 18 million will vote for McCain.
I looked at the Columbus Dispatch Cross Tabs and started laughing e.g. more than 50% 55+ years of age - very representative sample.
Old Mac should have lead by 10% :-)
Generally speaking - all toss-ups up-to Old Mac +2 or so will go Obama in Nov barring any "game changing" developments for my old friend such as a Monika Lewinsky due to the turn-out edge.
My grapevine tells me that the Obama campaign will work extremely hard on early voting like in the good Ol' Tammanee days in New York City :-)
Reduces several intangibles on election day such as weather, registration data issues and active voter suppression which requires lawyers to be present onsite etc. - expensive, time consuming and given the inconsistent voting process across the nation, it would slow down the voting speed in that office.
Nate,
couple of questions on your quoted MOE on your projections:
- do you use error in quadrature-method or
- do you use the Hessian method?
- have you tried non-linear functionals and used chi-squared fitting?
Programs like MINUIT are great open source solutions for that.
I would say if Obama doesn't get around an 8 points bounce +/- 3 thats bad news.
Fifteen points is just the GOP trying to build up expectations dishonestly.
of course this need not happen if the superdelegates come to their senses and vote for Hillary instead.
Obama stole the election? F**k off.
Yes, Colin, by winning more delegates. And Obama will "steal" the election from McCain as well, by getting more electoral votes. What a thief!
Virginia CONservative
ya better get out the booze ya yahoou
Because Obama is going to win Virginia and knock out that troll McCone before we even get the results from out west
Fifteen points is just the GOP trying to build up expectations dishonestly.
VCon... ya think?
COLORADO UPDATE:
The Convention is going very well on the ground. The anarchists and Communists who threatened to turn Denver into 1968 Chicago turned out to be far better at posing for cameras than organizing anything. The police presence on the streets is overwhelming. With all the hype leading up to the DNC I got to work this morning easier than normal.
Got a great picture of Biden at a hotdog stand about 30 minutes ago. He looks good!
Nate where are you based? Thought I come by and say hi and introduce myself.
Cheers
Glenn
Franco-
Whoever wins, I just want them to win it on election night by at least 2% so we avoid a cluster!@#$k recount here in Richmond.
Biden was such a terrible pick that the republicans are afraid to select Romney because he's too rich with too many houses. Afraid to select Palenty because Biden will tear him apart, yup, that Biden pick was weak. Being a foreign policy expert and a working class hero, yeah, thats not gonna go over well.
matt j.h. your comment is typical of the immaturity of obama supporters and your candidate
ya better get out the booze ya yahoou
Because Obama is going to win Virginia and knock out that troll McCone before we even get the results from out west
Kerry + VA is not, by itself, enough to win. Even if it's Kerry+IA+VA, we'd be sitting at 268-266 while waiting for HI to come in.
Well, McCain lost to Bush and has yet to win the Presidency. Obama beat Hillary and yet has to win the Presidency. More than one election has wom because of gaffes, dirty tricks and last minute shenanigans.
I see Barack as more the winner than McCain -- in intelligence, plans to fix the country and vision for our future.
I see McCain as a consummate clever talker who has parlayed a hack Republican record into a Presidential qualification based on a POW background and the love of a Mochael Lewis-led press corps.
We shall see.
PETE
niced try in working in your talking point on 'leaners' favoring McCain.
Pushing 'leaners' to commit in August pre-conventions are #'s not worth a bucket of warm spit IMHO.
For predictive analysis that is practically worthless data until October or even the week before the election.
Until then they are best described as UNDECIDEDs, nothing more.
But the GOPers do need to grasp at something in their favor since all the 9-10 current battleground swing states are RED trending PURPLE/BLUE on Pollster.
Hey, notice that Pollster now has AK, MT, ND & NC as 'tossups' along with the usual FL, OH, VA, NV, CO, NH.
Iowa and New Mexico are Obama's at this point.
That, plus Virginia does it.
If Obama wins Virginia early election night (our polls close VERY early compared to most states, 7:00) its going to be a long night for me.
Colin,
Dude what are you trying to accomplish? You make an outrageous claim that Obama stole the nomination??? Matt was too kind to you :) The only childish people in this process are the Clintons and their egos plus morons like yourselves who can't think for themselves.
Obama may not be getting a VP bounce, but he doesn't need one.
What he needs is a lasting 3-4 point convention bounce - about what he gets if it consolidates a reasonable percentage of the party behind him. If he hasn't gone up by at least 3 points relative to his past numbers by a week after the convention, he's in trouble.
That said, I think he's going to do it easily, and I don't see what McCain can do if Obama DOES consolidate his base.
Oh how I wish the Nauoo Expositor poll story were true...
I'm a conservative McCain guy. Next the Hillary, Biden was the pick I was hoping against. I'll be honest here, it was a great pick.
Biden does exactly what Obama needed in a variety of levels already touched on previously. I still think Pawlenty might be the way to go (assuming all pro-choicers are off the table). But I don't feel as good about Pawlenty with Biden as his counter.
Pawlenty only makes sense if he plus an extra intrastate convention bounce brings MN into real play and that may be a bridge too far.
Glenn
a McCAin surge? yeh, peter, maybe if there's a mass outbreak of alzheimer's.
jaiti theres really no reason to resort to this kind of language. its really sad that people like you cant participate in a political discusion. in any case we will all have to wait and see who wins the roll call vote.
@VaCon: I would be surprised to see any isolated bounce out of the convention, because presumably McCain names his V.P. pick the day after Obama's speech and then the GOP convention gets rolling. There's just going to be too much noise in the next two weeks.
Our baseline now is Obama up by 1 or 2. We'll see where things stand two weeks from now.
Filistro--that comment about the 15 bounce and getting to work was so good. Once again today's best snark award goes to you. Two cheers.
Colin,
You are right. There is absolutely no reason for LYING in a political discussion. You lied by saying that Obama stole the nomination. Unless you have a proof that such thing happened, you are lying. It is very hard to have a "normal" political discussion with people who lie. Simple as that.
I know that her higness and her supporters have a very hard time that they got beat by a nobody from south side of Chicago fair and square, but hey life is tough.
well Hillary will win the role call vote. If not im voting for Bob Barr.
I am trying to figure out Colorado, and why it is wobbling back and forth. My biggest guess on Colorado so far is that it is like my own state, Oregon, only tilted slightly more one way. Both of them are large states pretty much divided into one cosmopolitan, liberal area with lots of rural, conservative area outside. The difference is just that they have slightly different proportions of these two bases.
I think this is a big difference between Oregon, Colorado and midwestern states like Ohio: both Oregon and Colorado probably have more ideological voters on both sides of the spectrum, unlike Ohio which has lots of blue collar voters that are going to vote (pardon the simplification) based on the price of gas.
So I also think that in Ohio, people's votes are actually swinging back and forth, based on economic conditions or the current media status of the candidates. In Colorado, I think most voters have already made up their mind, based on whether they are "culturally" conservative or liberal. So when a Colorado poll shows a difference, that is probably just polling error, rather than a real shift in the electorate.
This post, http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/oregon-swing-state-or-latte-drinking.html has some interesting things to say about Oregon that probably apply to Colorado as well. Notice that Colorado, compared to other 2004 republican states, has an electorate that views itself as very liberal.
"well Hillary will win the role call vote. If not im voting for Bob Barr."
Well, Bob Barr now has at least one guaranteed vote on Election Day.
in any case, jaiti im sure even you dont want an obama-wright-rezko regime.
ergo, thats not true. bob will also vote for himself so that would be two votes.
Obama's November surprise:
A mind boggling 28 field offices open here in New Mexico (including < 5k person towns such as T or C) to McCain's 4 statewide. Obama ground campaign here is simply unprecidented. I've never seen anything like it, really. I imagine New Mexico is representative of other swing states.
What exit polls were to the 2000 and 2004 elections - likely voter models will be in this election.
obama-wright-rezko regime?
Sweet home Chicagoooooo...... :)
Virginia Conservative, I agree. Assuming an OH win (the games over otherwise), VA is as big of a problem as CO or NV.
Even if New Hampshire goes our way, we lose with either CO or VA lost. I think in the end, VA's demographics bring it back home at < +2 points, but VA is a major weakness.
We really need to get one more Kerry state flipping or NM. Michigan is for me not something to feel confident in. I think NM is as reachable as CO. I'm thinking that CO's demographics and party organization is better for the Ds than NM's. Richardson's numbers are poor and Obama's favs in NM are weaker than CO. Plus McCain's AZ people and the TX GOP troops will likely ground game NM for a little more pop there. Also, I expect NM undecideds to break slightly more McCain as a fellow westerner and with no westerner on the D ticket.
But if CO goes, NM isn't enough, we'll need NH or better to block. If VA goes, we need CO plus NH or better to block.
Cheers
Colin - ah, and here I thought "immature" meant childish behavior...behavior such as an adult, whose candidate got less votes, complaining about the rules, the results, and that their candidate did not win...guess I am just wrong, being a poor loser isn't immature at all.
More seriously, if you and the many people like you do end up voting for McCain and he wins the election, please do not have the audacity to complain. You will get exactly what you voted for. When Stevens and Ginsberg leave the Court and Mr. McCain gets to replace them, don't complain when the Court is then 7-2 on the conservative side. Don't complain when they change Roe v. Wade, destroy Miranda, and gut Civil Rights in the country. Just accept that it will be your own fault. Power is a wonderfully terrible thing. Hopefully "winning" for you is worth the price you will pay.
Glenn-in-Colorado-
I feel bad about New Mexico cause we got a big hispanic problem we didn't have in 2004 or 2000.
beowulf, if you had read my comments you would know that i plan to vote for bob barr and not womenhating mccain in the unlikely case Hillary does not win the roll call vote.
Nate,
There are a few spikes in your simulations, especially Obama's at or around 350. I was wondering what states that represents, and the national advantage Obama enjoys in that scenario.
I still think Pawlenty might be the way to go (assuming all pro-choicers are off the table).
Pawlenty would enter the VP debate a man and leave it a picked clean skeleton, and Biden would be asking "what's for dessert?"
Waiting for HI to come in? I would expect that if the election is that close, Hawaii would be called a while before some of the tipping-point states, since demographics and Obama's background there will probably make it an insta-call right when polls close at 11 or midnight ET.
VCon,
I think McCain has a big problem in the west, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada. You put Mitt Romney on that ticket an outspoken anti illegal immigration hawk you have got even bigger problem with Hispanics.
But I must say that Obama leading 30-40 points among Hispanics against McCain, probably the softest Republican when it comes to illegal immigration is puzzling.
Those comments were posted while I posted, but it will be no different...vote for Barr, but accept the result you are creating. Again, I hope Clinton winning is worth it to you, it doesn't sound like it is to her considering the speeches she has given in support of Obama.
No apparent post-Biden bounce but I'm not worried.
Unlike previous VP picks, I suspect the usefulness of Biden is less about superficial short term popularity surges and much more about his ability to slowly but surley chip away at McMansion and turn him into the object of ridicule which he so richly deserves.
Nate, this is a really good blog but I really wish the comments were monitored more closely there is so much nonsense posted here.
Glenn:
Sorry to disappoint you but I think you misread NM. McCain is currently loosing Latinos 60-30. Bush kept NM in play both times by pulling in 40+. Republicans win NM by getting 40+ Latinos and energizing the Eastern NM Bible Belters. McCain is doing neither.
As far as ground game - McCain is simply not investing in NM at all. Obama on the other hand has a completely unprecidented ground operation going.
Colin -
Where do you get off walking into a discussion thread with a flamethrower on full throttle, then getting all hissy when some one pushes back? Thank you for perfectly embodying the entitled brat psyche driving the PUMAs who resent Obama for building and running a professional, organized campaing team that "stole" the nomination because their candidate's campaign was such a clusterf*ck.
Beowulf states, "More seriously, if you and the many people like you do end up voting for McCain and he wins the election, please do not have the audacity to complain. You will get exactly what you voted for. When Stevens and Ginsberg leave the Court and Mr. McCain gets to replace them, don't complain when the Court is then 7-2 on the conservative side. "
Actually I think this risk is way overblown. No way does the Democrat senate allow anyone to the right of O'Connor through as a replacement to either Ginsberg or Stevens.
There are already the 5 votes there with Kennedy if Kennedy were so inclined, but he's not. Even another Kennedy doesn't move Roe.
The McCain picks that will be confirmed will be moderates. There is no mandate for a 7-2 conservative court and the Senate will simply not allow it.
As long as it doesn't take 14 recounts in Virginia....
"Jack-be-nimble said...
With no bounce for VP anouncement for Obama, once McCain moves ahead, he will stay there and win. He only has to avoid mistakes now and he will win easily."
The only way McCain could avoid mistakes is if he accidently locked himself in his private jet's bathroom and couldn't find his way out for 3 months.
I mean, seriously. It's John McCain. Screwing up is what he does best.
beowulf,
Couldn't have said it better myself. Colin, I do hope you are a Republican trying to stir up mischief and not a liberal voting against what you say you believe.
Oh, and by the way, if you're hoping for a roll-call miracle you may want to think again: a survey of all the Clinton delegates going to the convention showed that more than half are now "enthusiastic supporters of Obama" according to the NYT.
deltaverde, im hardly an "entitled brat" but active in a number of charitable social organizations such as the Opera Guild, the Junior League and the alumni chapter of delta zeta
Glenn-in-CO: Are you sure you want to use a phrase like "a bridge too far" in conjunction with Pawlenty?
Sedi,
If we go pro-choice, the pick for the juggler vein is Senator Olympia Snowe. That will really put the Hillary Ds in play. Otherwise they drift back to Obama over time.
colin: tell us which of the candidate-wankers will sort out global warming.
Glenn - I actually agree with you...however, there is no doubt that with McCain, the most liberal judge on the bench, Stevens, would be replaced by a judge on the conservative spectrum (certainly more moderate as you suggest, but Congress really is not going to reject a competent judge that is somewhat conservative). Similarly, the second most liberal judge, Ginsberg, would be replaced by a moderate-conserative...this is a drastic change that would result in major alterations to existing Court decisions(Roe and Miranda being the most obvious).
glenn,
It's an interesting strategic question for McCain. I would say he probably hangs on to a significant amount of his base regardless of his pick, so maybe taking a gamble on a pro-choice VP would be his best move. On the other hand, it may be that he doesn't want to risk mutiny among core Republicans and he'll go with a more "conventional" choice.
Personally I think he needs to gamble to get more indys or steal some Democrats, because he needs to be in a better position than he's in now by election day and he's already at ~85-90% support with Republicans.
Can someone go Beowulf on Mule Rider?
Of Biden and Rendell and the Dark Horse
Biden doesn’t seem to have done much good for the ticket. You certainly don't see it in the polls, unless it is being masked by the contra movement of die-hard Clintonites moving away from the ticket and the two are cancelling each other out.
I think the problem with Biden is that Obama looks bad by comparison. This “regular Joe” meme suggests Obama is something else. What? An elitist? And the fact that Biden has been in the senate for something like 35 years only highlights Obama’s inexperience while taking away one of Obama’s biggest lines against McCain: that he has been around so long what’s he complaining about , he should have done something. You can now say they same thing about Biden.
Biden also added zero from a geographic perspective, other than a smidge of help in PA.
Speaking of which it has been reported that a media forum yesterday Governor Rendell of PA tee’d off against the media for being biased against Hillary Clinton and causing her to lose. Hardly sounding the drums of unification.
Many are thinking McCain will pick a woman if only to close the deal with the PUMAs. I think that would be a bridge to far and way too transparent an effort, especially considering the lack of any viable candidate this year. Condi Rice comes closest, but we don’t need foreign policy experience on the team and Whitman and Fiorina have never been in political life and that seems a recipe for disaster.
McCain needs to go with a non-obvious choice, one that will surprise and yet appear fully formed in terms of justification from the start. He should pick a dark horse with credentials, someone with an unassailable record of accomplishment and integrity and someone who can help lock down a battleground state. That person should be young and articulate and it would help if he looked clean.
My friends, that person is Ohio’s Rob Portman, and I am here to recommend him as John McCain’s running mate!
Portman served in the Congress and might have been Speaker had he not chosen to enter the executive branch first as Director of OMB and then as US Trade Rep. He understands the economy really well and is a thoughtful debater. Perhaps not a hatchet man, but his soft spoken wisdom will do a lot to elevate the tone of the campaign. There are plenty of other surrogates out there who are capable of savaging O’Biden, not least of which is ol’ McCranky himself.
A great fact in Portman’s favor is that he is so unknown, yet so accomplished that the media will have to spend time figuring out who he is and in the process ill reveal a great man who himself is ready to lead and the story of him coming out of the blue will be captivating in the way that Biden’s ascension was disappointing, a letdown.
Rob Portman: Before him all wankers will tremble!
The trouble with my party is that we are too ideological and not sufficiently pragmatic. We are the minority party sailing into a massive head wind. Rush is an idiot! The RW radio crew's agenda is to keep their shares against other RW radio competition by throwing red meat to the wolves - like me ;-)
We're not getting anymore Alito's or Roberts even with McCain. We're getting at best some moderates ala Kennedy and OConnor to replace leftists in Stevens and Ginsberg.
We are trying to pull a win out of what should by any account a massive defeat. A pro-choice VP (especially one with little risk of trying to run for Pres downstream) is absolutely the way forward. Our party MUST move center especially since the Dems gave us the opportunity to do so by overplaying their strength and nominating a Leftist.
I'm a radical Pro-Lifer for a Pro-Choice VP - Obama will only have Rush to thank in the end.
joel,
It's not worth it. Besides, how do you counter a brilliant argument like: "You are such a wanker"?
Truly one of the finest minds of our time.
Colin, exactly which policy position do Clinton and Barr share that would make Barr your 2nd choice?
Or are you just baiting people?
eve, you're the only bright one here. unfortunately, petekent, mulerider and virginiaconservative ("I'll just badmouth the Dems since I have nothing good to say about my candidate") seem to be real.
VACon and Glenn in Colorado:
You assume that Nevada and Florida go Republican as well as Ohio, right?
Let´s begin with a floor of 136 EVs for McCain: ID, UT, AZ, NE, KS, OK, TX, AR, LA, MS, AL, TN, KY, WV and SC.
What McCain needs to do: secure the Prairie and Big Sky states. I think he will- this brings him 12 EV from AK, MT and the Dakotas.
148.
Now he needs to secure Indiana, North Carolina and Georgia. Should also be possible without bigger problems.
189 EV.
Now we´re at the level where he needs to fight seriously for every state he wants to win. Lets flip Missouri red, now we´re at 200 Electoral Votes. From where does he get the remaining 70 EV?
I think the states that are in play are (in that order)
Florida
Nevada
Virginia
Ohio
New Hampshire
Colorado
Michigan
New Mexico
Minnesota [local convention bump?]
110 Electoral Votes in these states.
If he takes the battlegrounds Ohio, Virginia and Florida, he could close the deal with New Hampshire and Colorado or New Mexico and Nevada. I think both has a similar probability.
This is probably the best route he can go- 270 EV with NV and NM, 273 with NH and CO.
if he loses Ohio, he has to win all those four states and Minnesota.
If he loses Florida, he has to win Pennsylvania, or the election is over.
If he loses VA, it would be enough to win CO, NM, NV and NH.
But imo he needs OH, VA and FL to win the election. If he wins all three, it´s hard for Obama to counter- though not impossible, if Obama wins Colorado and New Mexico, he has pretty much won the election. Even if NH goes to McCain, we have an Electoral Tie.
So McCain has four must-win states- Ohio, Virginia, FLorida, Colorado. And I´m not even calculating with Nevada, Montana or Missouri going to Obama.
Colin said...
Nate, this is a really good blog but I really wish the comments were monitored more closely there is so much nonsense posted here.
That was the best laugh I have had today. Thanks.
Thanks Beo and other Obama people for the civil discussion!
We agree. From your point of view two OConnor clones replacing your best two justices is a defeat.
My side seams willing to beat the Ds in one thing this year - overplaying our hand. The difference is you all have the strength to do so. We're going to overplay our weakness.
Roe is safe even with McCain - at least for the next four years. We pro-lifers AT BEST can hope that we get some rulings trimming back abortion rights to original Roe - viability. If we get the elimination of federal abortion rights for post-viability abortions eliminated that is a massive victory. Overturning Roe isn't going to happen with McCain.
The libertarian side of my brain is fine with Miranda, I don't want it eroded much further.
colin is right: Obama got a grand total of zero votes in the primaries. Hillary got 18 million. How can she not be the nominee?
Colin is a troll. Please do not feed...
Glenn,
I wouldn't say you've been overplaying your hand too terribly: you did nominate McCain, who seems like he would be the most likely of all the Republican candidates to actually pull out a win.
What exactly are you referring to?
PeteKent--I agree on Rob Portman:
Bush's Chief Trade Representative.
Bush's Director of OMB.
Trade deficit $700 Billion.
Budget Deficit $200 Billion (not counting Iraq).
Heck of a job, Portie!
Colin -
Are you the illegitimate love child of Elle Woods and James Carville?
Glenn - the one thing I will add - O'Conner did not turn out as many Republicans would have expected...most thought she was a bit more conservative than she turned out to be (especially Regan I would guess). The reason I put that in - you just don't know what a McCain justice would do. Your analysis seems pretty accurate though assuming everything goes as expected.
I am skeptical of the reports on Obama's "great ground game." No doubt he's opening a lot of offices, but I'm told by a friend who's doing work for a downticket candidate in Virginia that Obama's "ground game" there is anything but stellar.
I think this column by Joe Klein is sobering. And even though Marc Armbinder generally bugs the living shit out of me, I think this one from him is actually pretty damn good.
I was intrigued by the comparison between Oregon and Colorado made by another commenter here. I live in Seattle and think there's a lot to that, and that it would apply to Washington State, too. Once you get out of the Puget Sound (and even some spots within the region), this state gets real red, real fast.
I've often thought that WA and OR are divided the wrong way. The border should run down the spine of the Cascades. Complete with an electrified fence, as far as I'm concerned.
Ras-TX-Sen: Cornyn 48, Noriega 37 without leaners; 52-38 with. Last month was 47-37 and 50-39, respectively.
Is "Columbus Dispatch" Ohioan for Reader's Digest? You'd think a reputable paper would be smarter than local nightly newscast.
Pluckon:
It is true, that Washington and Oregon are an almost perfect match, and that Colorado is much like both of them.
I also simplified things: there are, I am sure, plenty of middle-of-the-road voters in places like Spokane and Salem that will vote on things like education and health care, if a candidate presents a compelling case.
And I would never want to cut off Eastern Oregon--even if not for the scenery, I don't hate the people their just because their politics are different.
Pawlenty only makes sense if he plus an extra intrastate convention bounce brings MN into real play and that may be a bridge too far.
Glenn --
If you're pulling for him at all, using Pawlenty and bridge in the same sentence is probably not the best idea!
Rasmus, states,
"I think the states that are in play are (in that order)
Florida
Nevada
Virginia
Ohio
New Hampshire
Colorado
Michigan
New Mexico
Minnesota [local convention bump?]"
Agree ... but any loss from your list Florida - Ohio is game over, which is VAConservative's point.
New Hampshire doesn't do it, because it doesn't tip the game with Colorado lost. Without Colorado, then our next hope is probably NH+NM or perhaps MN (Pawlenty + Convention).
eponymous said...
"I wouldn't say you've been overplaying your hand too terribly: you did nominate McCain, who seems like he would be the most likely of all the Republican candidates to actually pull out a win. What exactly are you referring to?"
Agree - the choice for McCain was genius. I and fortunately many others appeared to have applied Buckley's instruction - vote for the furthest person right, who can win. Although, I think the honest assessment is that we were just the benefactors of dumb luck, the conservatives were weak (Thompson, Brownback) or phoney (Huckabee and Romney) and they couldn't gain ground on McCain.
The overplayed hand is that the Right wants a VP who can be the new champion of the Right and our 2012 nominee. They want someone to McCain's right ... far to his right. Too far for an election we should and will lose without another 2-3%.
Our reserve of strength sits in the hard reds which McCain + a RW VP wins by 10%+. Our weakness is everywhere else. We need indy votes in the purples, even if this costs us in the reds.
Pawlenty is the only lifer that might make it work. But with Pawlenty we're betting on MN and a VA hold. That's a low probability game. Pawlenty must be cast as an anti-Washington Governor for him to do any good in NM, CO and NV and its marginal at best.
Mormon Romney probably loses as many CR votes as a pro-choicer ... heck he is a pro-choicer hiding in the closet. Making him VP with a win means he's our guy in 2012. No thanks!
Romney doesn't do a damn thing in Colorado. The Mormons already vote and they vote solidly GOP. If the GOP's game is to try to find the last Mormon in the country to swing that's a loser game.
If we lose with 269 we might as well lose with 235. The game isn't total EVs for us ( I hope Obama keeps up his arrogant 50 state game) - its only about win probability. I think the best pro-life option is Pawlenty. But its a low risk low reward game that almost assumes this race is ours to lose. Obama's ground game is scary good. I've never seen anything like it and I've been on the receiving end of Colorado's well organized and well funded D ground game in the past.
Why Snowe? Her story is game on ... high IQ, articulate, WOMAN, accomplished, absolutely presidential not a token women by any means, orphan, 100% pro-military (her NAVY cred is as good as McCain's, locks VA), fiscal conservative on spending, raised blue collar, widowed, Greek Orthodox! Voted AGAINST NAFTA ... lets take that story into Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio!
If 6% of the CR vote goes Barr/Keyes, undervotes or stays home and we gain 4% indies we win.
Powently doesn´t help McCain to win MN. It´s a very blue state.
Reagan lost in MN..... and we think McCain has a chance?.
Please.
FWIW Ras Rep Poll from Texas.
"For the third month in a row, John McCain is leading Barack Obama in Texas by nine points, 50% to 41%, according to a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.
When “leaners” are included, the Republican is ahead 54% to 44%."
Nothing surprising there.
Well, Bush won Texas for 22 points, and McCain is leaning only by nine.
McCain has a VP problem: everyone seems either too lightweight and vulnerable to attack or has too much baggage and is vulnerable to attack.
McCain is not trusted by the right and will loose his base if he doesn't pick someone conservative.
However, factors such as party affiliation, incubent party fatigue, war fatigue, and a stalled economy point to a massive democratic win unless he can lure disaffected democrats and and independents. Few talking points favor Republicans, perhaps only immigration, which McCain won't use, and energy.
A diverse series of Bush states, Co, Nv, Nm, Va, Ga, Oh, and Fl could go blue this year. A candidate who merely "delivers" a state, asuming this would happen for Pawlenty, Portman, or Romney, won't win the election for McCain if national polls are strongly in Obama's favor.
The solution: Sarah Palin. No baggage, trusted by the right, appeals to all women, Executive experience, energy sector experience, resistant to attack because of her gender.
Most Americans with enough political savvy to know anything about anyone, even bigshots like Mitt Romney, are already committed partisan voters. Whoever is chosen will be new to everybody who counts. By being a woman, she will get unprecedented free media coverage. Snowe is too liberal.
Sarah Palin is McCain's best choice for 2008 and, win or lose, this run would expose her nationally for 2012.
Glenn,
Just wanted to let you know you are by far the most intellectual, mature, reasoned Republican poster here. It's much appreciated. Many of the regulars could learn a lot from you.
Has anyone ever heard Governor Palin speak? I haven't. I'm not ruling her out if a fellow Right-Winger can make the case she's up to going toe to toe with Biden.
Palin said that she doesn´t interesting in the job.
I think people are worrying about a lack of VP bounce a bit too much at the moment. I can't really explain it, maybe its more a reflection of the Rezko thing worrying Clintonites too much? Otr maybe its still a reflection of the reverse bump from Obama's holiday? Still I would suggest it seems to me that at a potential lull in his campaign, Obama still holds a narrow lead, and that augurs well for the Democrats leading into the convention.
I wonder if Bill's ego will want ot make sure he can't be blamed for an Obama defeat, and hence he will come out on Wednesday with a full throated support of the Obama-Biden ticket. I also wonder if from a Bill Clinton p-o-v the Biden pick reassures him that the Democratic Party isn't moving away from him soooo quickly as it looked earlier in this election year.
is the convention bounce likly to be greater in CO? (and MN next week) CO is looking like an important state this year.
Glenn, you´ve an Obama supporters fan club.
Congratulations.
Biden is a windbag. This wouldn't hurt him much in an out-windbagging contest with Romney, or against a man with similar tendancies but the dynamics of debating a woman are different. A draw for Palin would be a win, to the extent a confrontation on a level other than policy played out.
Pluckon,
I'm also a Washingtonian and I agree to a certain extent. While most areas outside King County used to be red, that has changed recently. Both houses of the state legislature (as you probably know) has supermajorites of Democrats. Oregon is different in that its Western side seems less liberal.
Let's see. China is rising, Russia is going all expansionist, Pakistan is sliding toward utter chaos, Sistani is ailing and the mid-east will explode when he dies, Iran still insists on those pesky nukes....
And you all want SARAH PALIN to be one aging 72-year-old heartbeat away from the presidency?
Are you guys for real?
On the bright side, she could send the military into China and put an end to all those forced abortions. So yeah... great idea, kids.
If McCain's core argument is that Obama is too young, inexperienced, and risky to be president, a choice of Jindal or Palin, two people younger, less experienced, and riskier than Obama wouldn't make much sense.
James, with Oregon the western slope is generally more liberal until you get south of Eugene. Other than the town of Ashland, it's pretty red all the way to the coast below Eugene. Three-quarters of OR's population is in metro Portland, Salem, or Eugene.
Of them, only Eugene's twin, Springfield (the home of Homer Simpson) is red.
What's Olympia Snowe going to do? Outflank Pakistan to the center with tactics of Senatorial protocol?
In my opinion, nominating any Republican man for Vp is an invitation for Obama to be in the White house, with no executive experience, no foreign policy experience and only his skill at reading people's intentions and acumen at choosing associates to guide him. I don't trust him to pick advisors, read allies or interpret enemies' intentions. He has a terrible record so far.
Presidents need the ability to run an institution and apply expert adice, or else have the knowledge themselves. That's what executives do. McCain has that experience, and Palin can learn on the job for a while at least under McCain. She knows how to run a state with all that entails.
Which known Democrat do you trust more than a generic Republican? So far as independents and undecideds are concerned, is it worse to have the green politician at the top of the ticket or at the bottom?
Well, let me correct that. Some of the Portland suburbs, i.e., Beaverton, where there's a Mormon temple, are red.
And bryen193, he's not going to pick Jindahl. For starters, he's even blacker and more exotic than Obama. Plus he's been involved in an exorcism. This doubtlessly makes him popular in the voodoo parlors of New Orleans, and in Louisiana in general, but I don't think it would play in America.
Which known Democrat do you trust more than a generic Republican?
That's a trick question, right?
Pluckon, James:
It can get into some fairly thorny territory trying to figure out comparisons between states---I don't know, for example, if I would say Salem is more conservative than Tacoma, or if Bellingham or Olympia correspond to Ashland or Corvallis. And there is always big variations within communities---Beaverton (which doesn't have the LDS temple, that is nearby Lake Oswego) has a lot of high income people, but they are also tech people, who tend to be more open minded.
But, I think in general the comparison holds:
http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?f=0&year=2004&fips=8
http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?f=0&year=2004&fips=41
http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2004&off=0&elect=0&fips=53&f=0
That is Colorado, Oregon and Washington...
filistro said...
Which known Democrat do you trust more than a generic Republican?
That's a trick question, right?
Yes. Short of wishing Duncan Hunter into office and that all democrats turned into guys like Joe Lieberman and John McCain, who's your VP pick that's better than Palin?
And with that last comment I kind of got off track: those maps are nifty, but all they do is let us know that rural areas are more republican than urban areas.
The original point I was trying to make is that a Colorado, or Oregon republican voter, is quite a different thing from an Ohio, or Missouri, republican voter. Or so I would think.
With Biden's infamous remark about Indian-Americans in 7-Elevens making the rounds on radio and YouTube, I expect that at the RNC, Bobby Jindal will make a joke about it. (Maybe he'll demonstrate his exorcism techniques too.)
If Obama and Biden make many more verbal gaffes like they did in Springfield they'll lose their standing to highlight McCain's senior moments.
With Michelle and Pelosi speaking tonight, I expect one or both daily tracking polls to move in McCain's favor by a point or two in the morning.
Understanding Colorado:
Denver County - Denver is a vibrant city with a growing population within the city limits. The core is being re-populated by young professionals, gays, and Hispanics. The City does not look like many other major cities in the USA. There's Jimmy Carter's famous quote of asking, "where's the ghetto?" And being surprised to learn there isn’t any ghetto in Denver. The African-American community is concentrated in NE Denver county and NW Arapahoe (Aurora), but it is probably as middle class and integrated as any city in America. The key ground game here is registering and GOTV on Denver Hispanics. I do not sense that this community is particularly inspired by Obama.
Jefferson County - This county is the western side of Metro Denver. It used to be solid GOP (its growth was driven by white flight from Denver busing) but it has gentrified and become increasingly Hispanic. The Uber-Affluent mountain communities of Genesee, Evergreen and Conifer are populated by a large wave of Californian refugees from high taxes, congestion and crappy schools. Colorado is Eastern California! Jefferson County is now complex. McCain must carry Jeffco by 7,000+ votes. He needs a massive turnout in the mountains and in the affluent Columbine suburban area and Western Arvada. The key vote here are Indy women soccer moms.
Arapahoe County - This was the original south metro county (until expansion headed further south into Douglas). The County has uber rich areas and heavy minority populations in Northern and Eastern Aurora. It still is a Republican stronghold but like Jeffco that is slipping. western Arapahoe (Englewood and Sheridan) is becoming more Hispanic. Key here is minority turnout.
Douglas - This is now the bastion of the GOP. Among the fastest growing counties in America it is white, educated, wealthy and GOP red. Douglas is from central casting as affluent suburbia. The GOP must turn out its people in droves.
Boulder (minus Broomfield) - Boulder County split after the 2000 elections letting its SE section form a new county. This rid the City of Boulder Leftists of those troublesome Broomfield Republicans. Known as the People's Republic Boulder joins Denver and Pueblo in forming the core of the Democrats strength. The key to Boulder is the large number of indies that vote Democrat. Many are probably Hillary people. The GOP needs to drive turnout in Superior, Lafayette, Louisville and Longmont. The County is extremely Green.
Adams - This is the old working class county that comprises the old northern edge of Metro Denver. It is very Hispanic. The Libertarian Party was formed here in 1972 in Westminster. The GOP need voters in Northern Westminster and Thornton. New growth areas of drive to qualify Commerce City and Brighton have been hard hit by the housing bust.
Pueblo - Many people are familiar with the Old Mexican peoples of southern Colorado and New Mexico. These families have been in the area for centuries and many of their elite trace back to families thought fought against fascist Mexico under Santa Ana with the USA in the War of 1848. The Salazars brothers (US Senate and 3CD) are such people. There is a tensions between this community and the new Mexican immigrants. Pueblo is also an old steel town and has unionization and issues more like Ohio than perhaps anywhere in the West. The key population for the GOP is retired military (the 4th Mech Division is located here and El Paso). Hispanic voter registration and turnout is low.
El Paso - This is Colorado Springs and its metro area communities. This is the home of Focus on the Family, the US Air Force Academy and NORAD. It is military, Christian Right and very Republican. The Core of Colorado Springs is becoming more Democratic as Hispanic population grows. The key for the Ds is registration and turnout of a population that is rather transient. This county could be in Texas.
Mesa - The largest population county of Western Colorado. Western Colorado is vastly different from the Spring-Denver-Ft Collins Front Range Metropolis. It is all about tourism, ag and energy ... and water. This is the home to 1 trillion barrels of shale oil (more reserves than Saudi Arabia). Pelosi is hated here ... I mean hated. The right hates her for obvious reasons, the Left dislikes her because she's apparently - judging by her personal investing see CLNE - all for natural gas onshore (meaning drilling the crap out of Colorado) but God forbid we talk NorCal offshore. McCain almost committed suicide by talking about renegotiating the Colorado River water compact. As an Arizonan this is war (Colorado+Wyoming+Utah) vs. (Cali+Arizona+Nevada). CA+AZ+NV steal lots of water from the up river states. Its ugly. Mesa also has a concentration of Mormons.
Weld - "Denver" is the core old city of what is now a massive Metroplex stretching along the Front range of Colorado. Its a geographic phenomenon more like what you see along a coastline in say SoCal or Florida. The Affluent live in or close to the Mountains ... the less affluent live out east (think SoCal Carlsbad vs San Bernardino). Weld used to be a collection of farm towns associated with the cattle and meat packing town of Greeley. Now its part of Greater Denver as Colorado's old Japanese onion farmers sell their water rights and turn their lands into low density high-end housing. Weld is filled with affluent swing voters. Colorado elections are now fought here and throughout the suburban 4CD. Weld elects Rep Musgrave - a Far-Right congresswomen.
Larimer - Like Weld Larimer used to be farms plus two towns - Ft Collins and Loveland. Often cited as among the nicest places in the nation to raise a family, Larimer is filled with non-Colorado born young families who moved here to make sure Colorado doesn't become like where ever they came from. Highly affluent, educated and more and more liberal as the old ag college Colorado A&M became Colorado State University. Ft Collins is starting to vibe a little like Boulder. The Republicans must win Larimar big which means soccer moms.
The Eastern Plain Counties - 15 years ago the Democrat Party in Eastern Colorado was nearly extinct. There were Lutheran Republicans, Baptist Christian Right-Wingers, Libertarians and the extreme Right Posse Comitatus ready to fight Gog and the forces of the UN. These people are building bunkers and hiding weapons caches preparing for civil war. These folks also show up as the old Sage Brush Rebellion people years back. Now they are ground zero for Alternative Energy in T Boone's high wind zone and are making money finally from wheat. Times haven't been this good in a lifetime. They used to nearly violently hate Washington DC now the merely despise it. The game here is complex and the population dispersed. Its a hard area to run a campaign in. The Ds will register Hispanics, the GOP will hope that Barr and Keyes don't catch fire. I expect Barr and Keyes to take 6% out of McCain in the 4th.
Mountain Counties - The old mountain towns are now International Chic and uber affluent ... Vail, Aspen, Steamboat, Durango, Telluride, Montrose, Crested Butte, Gunnison, Ouray ... Western Colorado is the most beautiful place in the county that know one knows about. America's uber rich have discovered it and they're buying and building. These uber rich are very often Cali Leftists ... Aspen now rivals Boulder as a People's Republic. These mountain towns are also filled with the Hispanic servants of these Uber Rich liberals, many are illegals so they can't be registered and motivated to vote as easily. The Mountains are also home to lots of old hippies and libertarian recluses. The tricky item here is that a very large number of these homes are second and thirds. Figuring out who is registered in Colorado and who is domiciled somewhere else (and getting them to vote in Colorado) is probably only touchable by a campaign with extra ground capacity - Obama.
Bottomline – Colorado’s is Obama’s to lose. He should win by 1% and might get north of that with ground game. The GOP needs to pound on Energy and Obama’s ties to Chicago corruption, Coloradans hate bad government. Colorado also still hates DC and the East Coast and Cali establishment which they see as exploiters of the Mountain West and corrupt. Immigration is there for the taking but McCain is locked. Romney helps here. An Anti-Washington VP would probably swing Colorado. Portman may help in Ohio but he isn’t it in Colorado. Ritter won the Governorship as a pro-business, pro-life, devout Catholic he’s governed as a union tool and tax hiker. 2006 may have been the top of the Democrats surge here, the tools for their undoing are building.
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