Saturdays are typically slow days for polling, and this one is no exception. In Mississippi, Rasmussen shows John McCain ahead by 13 points. That's essentially unchanged from Rasmussen's result in July, when McCain led by 12, but an improvement over polls in June and July, when Obama was in the single digits.
That's the only new data we have for you today, except for the national trackers, both of which show Obama ahead by 2 points.
Today's numbers are of some significance, though, as they represent the last real clean read that we'll get on the election before the conventions (even tomorrow's numbers may begin to be impacted by Obama's VP bounce, if he gets one). So for purposes of establishing a baseline, the RCP average shows Obama ahead by 1.6 points, Pollster.com by 1.4 points, and our numbers, which for whatever reason have usually been the most McCain-friendly, show Obama ahead by a mere 0.1 points.
8.23.2008
Today's Polls, 8/23
@ 6:53 PM
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46 comments
Thanks Nate!
Keep up the good work. Many of us depend on you more than the others.
capt, nate only likes to be told what a wanker he is.
It seems like the national polls, especially the trackers, are more stable than the state polls. How much is the SuperTracker governed by each of them? Or, could we see a national-only SuperTracker and a state-only SuperTracker?
Perhaps Pollster.com's number needs a slight adjustment, since
every third day the trackers aren't counted. So my guess the true Pollster.com average would be a 1.5 or 1.6% Obama lead.
So it may just be a model based so heavily on state polls will show a dead heat.
"nate only likes to be told what a wanker he is."
Some of my best pals are wankers.
Pollster is a biased site. They use polling averages from all the way back in February.
Their "best fit" lines make no sense and are inaccurate. They make their graphs Obama-friendly.
Everyone here is your friend, capt.
Nate,
I'm a big Fan. Keep up the good work.
I'd chalk up the difference in results to 538's treatment of state polls. Nate's result heavily correlates to the electoral college result, as you would hope such an average would.
But that's the simple explanation. :-P Onto the conventions, debates, and the election!
Isn't the reason that 538 shows a closer race than RCP or pollster the regression analysis?
In fact, isn't it kind of the point of 538 that it's not just averaging polls?
duh... yours are the most McCain friendly because your projection model is structured to assume the losing candidate will close the gap as the election approaches. At least that's how I understand it. Your number isn't supposed to reflect current polling, is it?
So taking your .1% Obama lead as the pre-convention benchmark, and applying the 6% over/under, Obama should be at +6.1 the day before the Rebublican convention and we should be back to our dead heat by October. And if not, we can say that one campaign is over-performing?
Is it true this place is called 538.com 'cos that's Nate Silver's IQ? 538 is a bit high for a human being imho.
Tyrone - Seriously?
Is this because your are a McCain fan and approve more of the volatility of the horrible RCP graph based on AVERAGES. The graph that shows wild McCain upticks every time an outlier poll comes along with McCain polling 6 points higher than usual?
I am willing to bet a weeks pay that if the Pollster graphs had McCain in front they would be "the best thing ever." But perhaps I have you read wrong.
Pollster is based on Math. Real Math. Not emotion. There is no bias built in. Go read about how they do their trend lines.
Nate, I reckon yours comes low for a couple of reasons
1)Regression Analysis
2)Higher commitment to state polls
3)You automatically discount the results this far out and make it closer.
Regardless, I reckon that overall it can be safely said that if the election were held now, Obama would win unless there was a significant Bradley effect, due to superior ground game.
BTW, can you run any numbers on what a typical VP bounce looks like, in the same way as you have for the convention?
Love the site btw - keep up the good work!
Had Obama made Biden public before today, he could have had a 1-3 point lead (at least) in the averages.
If McCain announces his running mate that Friday of the convention (or before,) it might chip away at that 6.1 lead i've been hearing about.
This all comes so fast now, all we'll really be able to tell is the net effect of the VP's and the conventions. Even the tracking polls often show a few days lag for news to percolate through the population.
RCP has this Fox link up from 8/22,
"FOXNews.com reports that Barack Obama has stopped advertising in seven states won by Pres. Bush in 2004. Of the seven states -- Alaska, Florida, Georgia, Montana, North Carolina, North Dakota and Virginia -- only Florida and Georgia have voted Democratic even once in the last four presidential elections, though the Obama campaign has put all of them in play."
Alaska, makes sense ... North Dakota, ditto ... Montana hmmm ... Georgia, even Obama's not taking Barr seriously (is he presuming a pro-life VP?)... BUT FLORIDA, NORTH CARLOINA and VIRGINIA!!! What? I never though North Carolina was realy in play sans a McCain implosion. It was only Obama's arrogance that had him trying to expand his presumed win towards 350EVs rather than increasing his win percentage by putting Ohio away.
But what's up with suspending adds in Florida and Virginia? Is this temporary? .... allow the convension to bounce you in these states and then spend again during the RNC?
If Virginia comes off the table this is boiling down to two states - Ohio and Colorado with NH, NV, MI in the shadows.
Hmmm, interesting! And if Ohio drifts away from Obama are we simply back to where we were 12 months ago? Kerry+IA+NM+CO for the 274 scenario?
I'm becoming a true believer in Nate's analysis, the regressions and reversions to means.
Gleenn-in-colorado:Relax. This is just a reset for convention week. After that, they'll put ads back up in some of those states.
But what's up with suspending adds in Florida and Virginia? Is this temporary?
No! It's not!! Obama's completely given up on Florida and Virginia!!!
Last post for the evening - Nate, I appreciate your work on here, but good grief, do you have to be such a wanker?
No! It's not!! Obama's completely given up on Florida and Virginia!!!
And I suppose all that paid staff in Virginia is just there to make phone calls to Ohio?
That's a great point about 538 doing Election Day projections, not current polling. According to your article on discounting an early lead, a 6-point bounce in current polls projects to a 4-point bounce in election day projections on 538.
So if Obama has a 4-point bounce in 538's election-day projection, that should be par, not a 6-point one. In theory. Of course, the Republican convention will mess with that.
Things coming back to where they should be....nice!
This 4 point election day Obama bounce is due to superior Obama ground game? We'll get a good bead on this when we start pulling apart the magnitude and party registration splits on mail-in and early Colorado voting against 2000 and 2004 and even 2006 figures. Colorado starts voting October 20.
I would think that a ground game model should be thought through more than just an across the board number. Early and Mail-in voting in some states makes ground game more important there. Ditto for states with election day registration.
THe problem is not that 538 uses state polls and RCP and Pollster.com use national polls. The problem is that 45% of 538's August state polls were by Rasmussen and 15% by Survey USA. As the national poll data shows Rasmussen is consistently about 2% more favorable to McCain than the average of the non-tracking polls. That is probably because the tracking polls use a fresh sample nightly, while the non-tracking polls use the better methodology of call-backs on successive nights. This would tend to disproportionately include stay at home (older) voters. As for the Survey USA polls, they did seven polls in August in states where there was at least one other poll, and in 10 of those polls they were more favorable to McCain than the other polls in the same state (and there was one tie in Virginia). Actually the median (a more stable, less poll dependent, measure) of the last five non-tracking national polls in RCP is Obama +3 and the median of the previous five polls was also 3%. In all likelihood Obama was +3% at the beginning of the month and still is.
glenn-in-colorado: Note that ground game, almost by definition, messes with likely voter screens by pollsters. A common likely voter question is "are you registered to vote?" There is no reason for anyone in a same-day registration state who is under 22 to have registered already, unless they voted in the primaries. So polls for those states that use that question get screwed up. The states in that category are Minnesota, Wisconsin, Maine, Idaho, Wyoming, North Dakota, and New Hampshire.
Glenn:
That was a hypothetical case and has nothing to do with the ground game. The model expressly leaves out the effects of a ground game except so far as they are reflected in the polls, which is not very much.
Nate's model posits that there is a tendency for the poll scores to regress to the mean as election day gets closer. The comment you were responding to was talking about this. If Obama comes up with a six point lead in the polls right after the convention, that would appear only as a four point lead in the projection.
I suggest you read the FAQs so that you will know how the model is put together.
RE the FL and VA discussion
I suspect that "completely given up" on VA and FL is overstating it a bit, but it is unlikely that he will carry either.
I would, however, be surprised if he starts pulling key staff or ad $$$ from either much before the middle of October unless money is unexpectedly tight. For two reasons.
One, he's got to keep McCain honest and force him to keep spending to defend these states.
Two, he can't demoralize the state organization, especially if there are close House and Senate races. In fact, if Warner's race is close, I would expect him to stay until the bitter end, unless he's told that he is a drag on the candidate or unless he really needs the money or people elsewhere. These are some of the toughest decisions that a Presidential Campaign has to make.
Multiple Florida House races are atypically competitive this year, with such Republican stalwarts as Diaz-Balart and Ros-Lehtinen facing tough competition. Districts 5, 8, 13 and 16 are also close. So, I'd be surprised if Obama visibly pulls out key staff or reduces ad spending, unless money is tight or he is asked to.
Dukakis pulled out of Florida too early in 1988 and the state organization never forgave him for it, with many, both locally and nationally, blaming him for Connie Mack's narrow victory over Buddy MacKay for Lawton Chiles Senate seat, handing to the Republicans a seat that had been in Democratic hands for many years.
One reason Nate's model shows McCain closer is that it expressly reduces the impact of polls the older they are. Since there hasd been a trend toward McCain, the older, more Obama-friendly polls, lose their impact. If the polls turn around, Nate's model will likely produce readings showing Obama with a higher support level than the other two.
One reason Nate's model shows McCain closer is that it expressly reduces the impact of polls the older they are. Since there hasd been a trend toward McCain, the older, more Obama-friendly polls, lose their impact. If the polls turn around, Nate's model will likely produce readings showing Obama with a higher support level than the other two.
Pollster sucks. And RCP gives equal weight to any poll over a few weeks, a primitive, inaccurate method. Personally I think Nate's numbers are a bit too McCain-friendly, but they are much more professional than Pollster and RCP.
the bradley effect is nonsense! people can answer a question about who they intend to vote for and keep that intention. we also have plenty of code out their
to provide cover for those who say they will not vote for him . . . celebrity, inexperienced, foreign . . . if there was potential for a bradley effect Obama would have more than the mid-40 poll numbers that he has consistently held . . . how many people feel like they have to say nice things about McCain because he's a POW but will in private they will vote the other way?
judas_priest: It's even beyond that. The model incorporates the current trend when it smooths the data. That means it will always overshoot a little bit at a turning point.
Presumably, Obama is currently at what is at least a local minimum in his polling, since he'll get some convention bounce. The 538 model will, initially, discount the start of that bounce as anomalous and counter to the trend, which has been down. Then, after several days, it will start to recognize the change as "real," and overshoot in the other direction, mistaking a bounce for a secular trend.
Colorado Under the Microscope:
38% of Colorado Voters have permanent mail-in status, meaning they'll get a ballot on October 20th or shortly thereafter. The heaviest counties are Republican ... with Douglas County at 52.9%, Arapahoe at 52.3%, and Jefferson at 62.8%. Some heavly Democrat counties are extremely low ...the Old Hispanic Southern counties are single digits (the largest, Pueblo is 7.9%). Denver is 29.7%.
See http://www.elections.colorado.gov/WWW/default/2008%20Voter%20Registration%20Numbers/July/state_PMIV_statistics_07.31.2008.xls
State registration active voter totals as of 7/31/08
American Constitution 839
Democrat 737,565
Green 3,941
Libertarian 6,381
Republican 795,949
Unaffiliated 681,639
TOTAL (Active and Inactive) voters were:
Party 4/9/08 7/31/08
ACP 491 918
Democrat 900,823 946,277
Green 4,802 5,425
Libert. 7,092 8,274
GOP 1,017,738 1,024,504
Unaff. 1,013,548 1,022,376
Change Since 4/9/08:
ACP 427
Democrat 45,454
Green 623
Libert. 1,182
GOP 6,766
Unaff. 8,828
Recent Democrat Voter Registration HAS BEEN IMPRESSIVE and the GOP's has been PATHETIC!
Must be all those paid people hanging out in downtown Denver asking all the minority and women if they're registered and letting me (a white male) walk right by without even a hello.
Inactives % of total by Party
ACP 8.6%
Democrat 22.1%
Green 27.4%
Libertarian 22.9%
GOP 22.3%
Unaffiliated 33.3%
It looks like its Democrat voter registration versus Republican permanent mail-in voting.
I think that the current pop vote discrepancy between the 538 trend and the other averages may actually be due to a problem with the 538 update procedure. It seems like there was some initial normalization to national polls, then changes in the trend are dominated by changes in the numerous state polls. This sort of incremental process can easily get a little uncalibrated, in part because of the non-systematic pattern of state polling. If the 538 national pop vote stays out of whack with the national polls, then it needs to be recalibrated, or even better to have some other update algorithm that does a better job of continuously recalibrating.
p.s. For the many who think that the assumption of regression towards 50-50 accounts for the shift, that regression is obviously currently zero, as you can see on the super-tracker.
p.p.s. Sarah Lawrence- You may be right that the shift is due to the trend-estimating algorithm, in which case it will reverse sign if the trend reverses sign.
and if it doesn't reverse sign, we're screwed
"That means it will always overshoot a little bit at a turning point."
Exactly. This is what we are seeing now, since all of the polling evidence from the last couple of days suggests that Obama is starting to tick up again after McCain gaining over a couple week period. While we humans can see it pretty clearly, the model is delayed in its response. It was slow to pick up McCain's gains and is slow to pick up Obama's now. That's also one of the reasons why 538.com has the race so close while other sites that simply reflect poll averages show a clear but small Obama lead. I prefer the polls for judging where we are right now, but the projection model will likely work fairly well for the election (it did quite well in the primaries).
I, for one, think that if Nate is really trying to project the election outcome, then campaign spending (not just fundraising) in a state, both on ads and on the ground game. These things absolutely matter in elections, as polls can and do measure. I wouldn't know how to incorporate it into the model, but I would have more confidence in it if they were included. I think.
Obama-Biden wins the Kerry/Gore states plus CO if this is a
51-49 election. (OH,NV,VA,FL) if this is a 55-45 percent election.
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