Colorado polls had for some months shown a small but consistent lead for Barack Obama, but his advantage there appears to be gone. A new poll from the Rocky Mountain News shows John McCain with a 44-41 lead.
McCain now holds the lead in three current polls of Colorado: Rasmussen, Quinnipiac, and this Rocky Mountain News poll, while Obama holds the lead in two others -- Frederick and Public Policy Polling. In all cases but PPP, the leads are within the margin of error. Our model still regards Obama as a very small, half-point favorite in Colorado, but the state has tightened.
Colorado is not quite a must-win state for Obama. It likely won't matter at all if he wins Ohio, for instance. But without either Colorado or Ohio, Obama faces a fairly difficult path to 270 electoral votes. Winning the Kerry states plus Iowa and New Mexico -- two states that still look quite strong for Obama -- leave him at 264 electoral votes, just five vote shy of a tie and six shy of a win. But those five votes might be tough to come by. It's hard to imagine Obama winning a state like Missouri or Indiana if he doesn't win Ohio. It's also somewhat hard to imagine him winning Nevada -- which would get him to a 269-269 tie and probably a win in the House of Representatives -- if he loses Colorado, although the two states are not as similar demographically as they might seem. The key state, then, would probably be Virginia. The more difficult that Colorado looks for Obama, the more important Virginia becomes.
UPDATE: Although, this could be a major problem for McCain in Colorado.
8.16.2008
Today's Polls, 8/16
@ 4:13 PM
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The battle state rankings at election-projection.net say the same thing: the current battle states in order of importance are OH, VA, MI, FL and CO.
I could see this shifting back to the +3-5 range Obama previously enjoyed after the convention. I can not imagine that the convention being in Denver will provide anything other than at least a small bounce.
Why is it hard to imagine him winning NV without winning CO? Kerry did better in NV then he did in CO. It seems like both states are very close.
Obama needs to throw his resources into winning Colorado, Nevada, Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Iowa, and Virginia.
He should abandon Georgia and Florida.
It is polling results like this that make me very happy that the convention is in Denver this year.
Why hasn't there been a poll of Ohio released recently?
the current battle states in order of importance are OH, VA, MI, FL and CO.
I would generally agree although I tend to view Florida and Michigan as not much of a battle. It will get close in both states but at the end of the day McCain will most likely take Florida and Obama will most likely take Michigan. Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia will probably go to McCain as well. They are already starting to swing back to him and historically the GOP gains ground as the election nears. So the fight is really in Ohio. I don't see either one of them winning without it. What these other states really do is provide Obama an opportunity to distract McCain from Ohio which is the real prize. If McCain takes Ohio he will win with 274 electoral votes. If Obama takes Ohio he will win with 284 electoral votes.
My money is on Ohio going to McCain
Obama is falling into the Kerry/Dukakis trap. He campaigned in the primary promising to bring the fight once his opponent wasn't another Democrat. Instead, he has actually become more passive and seems unable to hit McCain and the Regressives in the mouth.
Americans don't like wimps. He's getting bloodied with the ridiculous smears and non-issue attacks, and he isn't fighting back aggressively, much less actually fielding an offense, which is what he really needs to do.
If Colorado slips away, Obama is in serious trouble. He needs to take the fight to McCain and the Regressives, and he needs to play hard and a little dirty.
That poll just shows a dead heat, no one is staistically leading. Way to many undecided at this point plus it was a republican poll.
I keep saying these polls really won`t show where the country really is until after at least one debate. I still can`t see McCain running the table and winning.
If we still see Obama trailing in Colorado after the convention, then I think we might have a lot to worry about in November.
The key to victory is winning the Old Dominion.
The key to victory is winning the Old Dominion.
In my opinion, Obama has a much better shot of winning Ohio than he does Virginia. That's not to say he "can't" or "won't" take Virginia but I think it's a bigger stretch than most of you think.
Again, it's already starting to swing back to McCain, historically the GOP gains ground as the election nears, and while I am disgusted by such things I do believe there will be a Bradley effect...how much of one remains to be seen, but I think we would be foolish not to acknowledge that there will be one.
I agree, Mark in VA. McCain was linked to the Keating Five scandal; he left his crippled wife for a younger, richer, more attractive woman; this guy made racial slurs against Asians in public; he keeps saying stupid things like "Iraq-Pakistan border" and, "In the 21st century, nations don't invade other nations;" he flip-flopped on all of his "maverick" positions to curry favor to win the GOP nomination; it's not like McCain is a difficult target, here.
I appreciate that Obama is trying to be a "gentleman" or "a new kind of politics" or whatever, but he's giving off the appearance of just TAKING it. He needs attack dogs; he needs to be armed with barbs to fire back at the GOP smears; he needs to take the fight to Johnny Mac rather than being his doormat.
If Obama can't fix his CO problem after the convention he is in big trouble. VA is not going to go to Obama if he can't win in CO. Even with demographic shifts in NoVA - it's hard to see Obama making up 8 points in one state in four years unless he is running up his electoral college margins elsewhere.
This vacation of his may have turned out to be a big mistake. He's completely lost control of the narrative. The Republicans are painting him with a big wet brush and the color is "wimp". The Soviet invasion is doing Obama no favors either as he gave a tepid and weak initial response.
What Obama really needs to do is gain control of the narrative - and fast.
Errr - make that "Russian invasion."
Remember that new Ohio voting law. I think the young voters are being underpolled...they could be a much larger proportion of the electorate than the pollsters are pegging them at (cell-phone-only and cell-phone-mostly voters, remember?)
I think McCain retains the edge in Virginia, but I think Ohio will land back in the Democratic column.
That's the first time in the distribution I have seen McCain with an occurence that high. To be frank, I am worried.
Out here in Colorado it's almost as if Obama has ceded the state to McCain, particularly in the ad war. McCain's negative ads seem to run nonstop. Obama's positive message strategy is total failure.
The convention in CO should give Obama a bounce, the establishment in VA and the massive voter outreach will garner Obama the state. Ohio, with it's new voting law to boot, will go Obama's way. I see no worries of a victory. However, a victory isn't the only thing I care about, I want to see a whitewash, a landslide, a statement by the american people that we want change BADLY. Time will tell if it goes that far. Or if eeking out a win should be all that matters.
The above analysis is now old news. McCain just threw CO away by asserting that the Colorado River Water Compact should be renegotiated.
That's a declaration of war, as far as CO is concerned. CO candidates for the Senate seat Udall (D) and Schaeffer (R) both blasted the proposal in almost the same terms ("over my dead body"). If that's not a 5 point swing gaffe with long lasting effects, none exist.
@ogre,
Coming next, after no press access and no cellphones, will be no interviews.
Mark in VA is right.
I don't get it. Obama folded and went on vacation in August, just like Kerry. And the Corsi book and attack ads came out right on schedule. And a country that has a lobbyist working on the McCain campaign started a skirmish. Obama has been invisible. Crazy.
I volunteered for the Kerry campaign, and in my opinion, they essentially lost because of August vacation. It was just bizarre. Volunteers were ready to work their butts off but there was nothing to do. He windsurfed while attack after attack went unanswered.
Obama seems far too intelligent to come up with the idea of mimicking this stupidity on his own, so I assume some inherent feature of the Democrat party - some kind of worthless, pampered party functionaries who drag it down - insists on this suicide tradition of an August vacation.
The good news is that at least he did it before the damn convention. Contrary to the assertions of wingnuts, if the election were held today, it would be close but probably Obama. He can come back now and start fighting.
A major priority for the Democrats has to be finding out why presidential candidates have been encouraged to take vacations in August, with an election coming up in November. No matter what the reason, the new policy has to be that if you accept a nomination, you agree not to take a vacation within six months of the general election. This is unreal.
@gougef
Just nominee-edicts and announcements, issued through the staff eunuchs from one of the McCain family palaces?
Republican presidential nominee in a can--though that's likely to tend to cause his numbers to regress towards those of the generic Republican...
what an ass
Not so fast...
Even Republicans in Colorado are distancing themselves from McCain after his last gaffe.
http://mcjoan.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/8/16/16825/8416/570/568960
And I disagree with everyone who says Obama hasn't been attacking McCain - he's just been SMART about it. Rather than playing a negative ad during the Olympics, he chose to go with a positive one which I believe plays much better. However, on a state level, he has been playing strong ads such as the one regarding the DHL job losses in Ohio. I could definitely see one emerging in Colorado regarding this highly important water issue. It is important that he does this on a state level, because on the national level he appears to be above the fray, while still attacking McCain on the issues that actually matter to the voters in these key states.
The race is just getting to the stage where people start paying attention. It's no good whining about small ticks in the polls when most people (not us hardcore fanatics) are beginning to tune in. If you are getting worried, go register voters, go make phone calls, something productive.
I'm going to post again, because this pattern of folding and going to the beach in August is highly relevant to Colorado. Mistakes have the most impact in the tightest states.
The pattern of Republican campaigns for twenty years has been the same. A barrage of hateful negative ads, using violent events (whether coincidental or manufactured) to drum up fear/pose as "strong", and the release of lying books by right wing hate nuts. And catch a prominent Democrat in a an affair with an adult woman, and give it ten times more press than anything ever given to a Republican for anything. And it always starts in August. For frosting, the Republican always claims that he's going to "cut taxes", but the negative stuff is the core of the attack.
And it always starts in August.
Whatever one may think of Bill Clinton, he showed that it can be fought against if you stay on top of it, rebut every attack, and respond to every situation. Why can't that simple lesson be learned?
I honestly think that there must be high level, deeply "respected" people embedded in the Democrat apparatus who are either unconsciously self-defeating, or outright Republican moles.
That damn getaway to the beach by the Democrat always seems to be right on time to maximize Republican damage.
mule rider isn't there a nazi convention you're missing somewhere? What makes you think anyone here gives a shit what you think? Here's my opinion: go fuck yourself.
"In an interview yesterday with the Pueble Chieftan, McCain committed what could amount political suicide in the state by saying that the 1922 water compact negotiated between seven western states should be renegotiated to give Arizona, Nevada, and California (the Lower Basin states) more water. That's unlikely to make Wyoming, Utah, and New Mexico (the Upper Basin states) any happier than it's made Colorado."
Be interesting to see what the polls say in a week or so.
http://coloradopols.com/showDiary.do;?diaryId=7052
Well, he WAS doing ok. Hopefully Obama has a recording of that "we've come for your water" line, that would make a GREAT local attack ad for the upper basin states.
Kris,
So now we are linking the DAILY KOS???
Wow.
This new Colorado poll puts an emphasis on Obama´s problems with older Democrats. This is a demographic that could be heavily influenced by the Democratic Convention, and the sheer tradition of it. Only 68% of Democrats older than 45 years are supporting Obama. Wow...this is where he needs to improve.
The poll is unique in the way that 3rd party candidates are mentioned, but McCain still wins.
If Obama picks up OH and McCain picks up MI, and manages to hold onto IA, VA, and one of MT and NV, then CO would be the deciding factor (assuming that NM goes for Obama and all other states stay the same as in '04, as is likely).
The most likely situation with Obama losing OH and CO becoming crucial would be the map as it stands now -- Obama picks up Iowa, and all other states except possibly CO, NM, and one of NV and MT remain the same as four years ago. Then Obama would need to capture Colorado and one of the other states (or, I guess, New Mexico, Nevada, and one EV in Nebraska, but this is way less likely) to win outright.
If Obama can take Virginia this year, Colorado shouldn't matter; assuming he can hold Michigan and NH, VA+IA will put him over the top.
"The race is just getting to the stage where people start paying attention. It's no good whining about small ticks in the polls when most people (not us hardcore fanatics) are beginning to tune in. If you are getting worried, go register voters, go make phone calls, something productive."
I like the last part of this, and I have to concede that I haven't been able to the way I did in 2004 due to entrepreneurial activity.
Having said that, I DO NOT AGREE AT ALL that passively allowing attacks during August on the foolhardy assumption that "people aren't tuned in" is remotely a sane way to behave.
A super-negative ad impacts on the person who sees it. It TUNES THEM IN, whether they want it or not. And while the sophisticates here may not be impacted, those ads work the way they are supposed to work on a lot of people. And if you're surfing when the attacks are hitting, you come back less strong than you would have if you had fought.
To win an election, don't take a vacation during the campaign, fight back against every attack until election day.
It is wise to save ammo until the fall, but it is not wise to let the enemy fire unanswered at any time.
I think Obama is strong enough that he will probably survive this, but he didn't have to give McCain any kind of head start. I continue to feel that having the candidate repeat the vacation mistake of 2004 seems to demonstrate a structural flaw in the Democrat party somewhere.
If you'd actually read the article, it references local papers as well. Too bad you're blinded by your bias. It's not just someone's opinion. He actually said it.
If the Obama campaign doesn't flay McCain in local ads in Colorado for those comments, it'll be a big mistake.
eve, thanks, but I really don't need to be defended from a braying ass. I'm fine.
Mule Rider is just distraught that McCain chose to empty his bladder on the high voltage third rail of Western life and politics. He's getting reamed out by every Colorado media outlet, conservative or not, and by the CO GOP candidate for the Senate.
Being "shouted down" by irate, pusillanimous pachyderms isn't a new experience for me. The gaffe's what it is. As a native of Colorado--and a current resident of California--as well as a historian by training (who actually studied Western US history), I really do understand how big an issue this is.
Water is the single biggest hot button issue in the West. People got killed over it (repeatedly) through the 19th and early 20th centuries. Now, untold amounts of money get spent on litigation and ballot measures addressing water. Suggesting in a blithe manner that the compact needs to be renegotiated is going to trigger the kind of reaction in people (particularly in CO) that one usually sees over films and art that is deemed blasphemous.
McCain could well be burned in effigy in CO for this alone.
I stand by my educated perception--as someone who has at times looked at Western property with an eye to the need to purchase water rights as well...--that this is a gaffe on the order of 5%, maybe more.
Mule Rider can vent all the wind he likes about it and provide a petomane rendition of Dixie while he's at it. I feel his pain; his candidate might as well have stuck his finger in the main at Hoover Dam. It just doesn't get much better than this. Proposing that WV reunite with VA might get a similar reaction there....
some time around three weeks ago obama had mccain "zudzwagned (sp)"
a week or so ago it was "checkmate" due to the gang of ten.
both of those times mccain has kept rising in the polls.
so this "CO h20 theivery" is what in keeping with the chess terminology?
It will be interesting to see the so called "Faith Forum" this evening. Maybe Warren will ask McCain about this?
mark: "If the Obama campaign doesn't flay McCain in local ads in Colorado for those comments, it'll be a big mistake."
Add several Western states to that list of negative ads regarding water. NM, for example, will turn deep blue over night. Montana is feisty about water, too, and has battled CA in the past.
Water is a HUGE issue for several states. Obama should strike now.
I have a close friend who works as a water rights lawyer in New Mexico. This isn't some fluff issue. This is serious stuff, and the states are absolutely vicious when it comes to defending their interests on this front. Mule Rider's reaction doesn't surprise me. If Obama had said this, I'd be throwing an angry hissy fit as well.
Mule rider hasn't stated a FACT in his lifetime. Go home you GOP HACK, we are hear to discuss our takes on the polling ALONG with the facts. You can keep your gop talking points at home, you moronic keyboard warrior.
Mule Rider -
"Guess you were on a two-months vacation in the Yukon or on a round-the-world cruise when Larry Craig was in the news last year."
Nope.
Larry Craig was conservative senator who openly campaigned against gay rights, yet was literally arrested in a men's room seeking anonymous gay sex. I don't think he should have been arrested, but that's what happened.
The only "timing" was that a cop happened to arrest him on that particular trip to an airport men's room.
Then he made it worse by flamboyantly denying the obvious and initially refusing to resign.
His hypocrisy was a major part of the story, as was the fact that he was actually arrested.
Meanwhile, Edwards, although reprehensible, is having a long term consensual affair with an adult woman. Although he certainly didn't ever run on a "free love" platform or announce that he had an "open marriage", he is not associated with hypocritical moralizing.
Neither was he arrested. Nor did any other random event lead to the discovery. Instead, the press mysteriously "discovered" that he was having an affair just as McCain desperately needed some help in his highly predictable August assault on a vacationing Barrack Obama. (Why Edwards' misbehavior should impact on Obama is a mystery to me, but I've heard "pundits" gloating that it will.)
I'm not sure which story got more press, but it's obvious to me that a shocking tale of a moralizing hypocrite who gets arrested seeking gay sex in a men's room would, in a non-biased press, get more coverage than the shabby revelation that some guy who was an also-ran in the presidential primary is having a consensual affair with a similar-aged adult woman.
Again, it's the arrest and the outrageous hypocrisy/double life elements that made Craig big news.
mikewpbfl,
The "Gang of Ten" legislation is coming up next month and will be passed, effectively shutting down the drilling issue. Obviously, the issue will stay alive until the bill is actually up for a vote.
Also, in case you haven't heard, Obama has been on vacation, so a McCain uptick is not the least bit surprising, especially since this recent string of CO polls were taken right in the middle of his swing through the state.
MuleHead,
You have been braying like an ass on previous threads all week - not factual sharing, but primarily parrotting negativism.
Now this afternoon you lay claim to on point analysis ?
ROFLOL - such a hypocrite.
Partisanship is fine; being an ass is not. Although many on here are fond of donkeys...
BEHAVE or BE GONE !!!
now I will attempt to DNFTT...
Mule Rider,
It's evident that your votes reflect your comments here: they're primarily emotional reactions. Frankly, it's tiresome.
The NV polls are flawed, as the only one polling it lately is Rasmussen
Oh OTF, any time a poll favors McCain you think it's flawed. This very website lists Rasmussen 3rd in terms of accuracy right behind SUSA but any time one of them shows a poll that is not a coronation of Obama you go off hell bent on discrediting it.
Mule Rider says: Anyway, I won't resort to ad hominem attacks,
LOLOLOLOL... ahhhh... wiping away tears of laughter....
I think it was Sedi who actually went to the trouble yesterday of cutting and pasting about a dozen of the Mule's most vicious ad homs, and what an ugly little assortment it was. Scatalogical, too.
(Thanks Mule, that's gotta be the best laugh I've had all day. How can you tell I've been missing Pete Kent? :-)
Scott919,
I guess as a RepubliCon reading is optional. Rasmussen has been fudging his voter ID numbers. He wants to create the poll trend for McCain. He has cut Dem voter ID in all his polls. Go to the state election boards sites who updated as July 2008, he is off and then he gives Repub +2 in every poll to boot the last month. He will readjust his numbers so he seems accurate on election day and those as yourself will never know the difference of his agends of creating a trend line. The story we wants to create is a McCain shifts. His Voter Id numbers are wacked. But I guess you don't actaully look at the crosstabs for polls
mikewpbfl @ 5:19 PM said...
"both of those times mccain has kept rising in the polls."
Which polls are you speaking of ?
In some polls McCain's # have risen a bit & in some polls his #'s have fallen a bit.
But the truth is that over an average of most polls, McCain's #'s have edded & flowed over the summer within a constrained range.
Currently, McCain #'s woujld be best described as upticking this week [after about a 3 week general downtick] and are at the upper range of his polling history - but not above past historical trends.
Obama's #'s have regresses this week on average toward the lowest level of his historical polling range. Mostly the election status have reverted to where it was on or about 7/22 both in Nate's simulations, projections, and raw #'s.
Noise & noise. But Obama has been on vacation & the Olympics are dominating the news so at this point everything is basically static - no real dynamics despite all the noise.
Both parties know this, history predicts this pattern, statistical analysis merely confirms the obvious...
The election starts in mid-September.
Now the DEM in me is smiling about the warchest Obama has accumulated & admires his team's restraint not to blow it in August as many clamor for him to do.
The strategist in me says that a close race [but small lead maybe] for Obama guarantees continued massive $$$ from the expanding CONCERNED base that Obama can tap during the fall to push him over the top in flipping at least 2-3 RED states & holding all the BLUES.
Obama does not want to appear to have a blowout in hand this early - counterproductive stategically [IMO] & historical analysis supports that. Close big & hard & strong like Reagan did.
ps - I did not donate last month. I will donate again in late Aug., Sept & Oct when it really counts the most and McCain's hand will be more restrained. Think the GOP is not aware that this is their doomsday scenario ?
I seriously can't believe that McCain just said we should re-open the Colorado River compact! All I could think to say is "you just can't do that." You just can't run a major Presidential campaign and make those kinds of unforced errors.
This is a recurring problem for McCain that goes beyond this incident. The minute he goes off-script he comes up with whoppers and his campaign manager has to go out and say that he's "not speaking officially."
I would expect to see McCain repudiate his position in the next 48 hours and say that he "misspoke." That will be embarrassing, but it's better than three months of Obama ads saying "John McCain wants to steal our water!"
If Obama has any brains at all, he'll immediately produce an ad attacking McCain for this and put it out all over the state.
If I were him, I'd even work it into his acceptance speech.
I don't agree that it's fatal here, since McCain will back-track and change his position, but it does give Obama an opening to attack him viciously.
Right now McCain is blasting his ads all over the state which is how he's managed to pull into a tie here. He has to use up all his primary campaign money (about $27 million before the convention) because he won't be able to use it afterwards, since he's accepting $84 million in public financing for the general election.
Interestingly enough McCain is running his "Original Maverick" ads on the Olympics now, instead of his attack ads on Obama.
McCain is consolidating his base here, just like everywhere else, which is how he's moved up in the polls.
Obama will need to do the same thing with the convention and the publicity he's going to get from picking the VP nominee.
This is still Obama's race to win. McCain cannot win, he can only hope Obama loses.
It is also obvious that Democrats are not switching to Obama as a result of McCain's ads; rather it's Republicans who love every slimy negative attack and respond by rallying to McCain. Since Republicans have a +3% party ID in Colorado, this gives McCain a temporary advantage.
However, the problem for Republicans in Colorado is Independents. They are 34% of the electorate and they have voted Democratic the last 2 elections statewide. So, rallying Republicans won't be enough unless McCain can prevent Obama from getting a majority of Independents.
Obama's micro-targeting campaign is to call every registered Democrat in the state. They've already been calling me from their database. I have no idea if McCain's campaign is doing the same thing, but they have only one office here, which I really don't understand.
Bush proved in 2004 that you can't just depend on a media campaign + independent groups running your GOTV effort.
McCain might like to get more water for Arizona over my dead body. I was going to comment that the closeness of the polls here in Colorado did not surprise me. But this comment by McCain is terrible, and as a western Senator he should have know better. Perhaps he has spent too long in Washington.
---"It's also somewhat hard to imagine him winning Nevada "
Repost do to typing error...
That's an interesting statement since no state in the SW has had a bigger move towards the Dems since 2004.
Since 2004 NV has gone from Rep +4400 to Dems +55,600 in registration(that's from NV board of elections as of July 2008)That's -0.5% (2004) to +5 Dem (2008)advantage.
Bush only won NV by 21,500 votes and Kerry ran out of money and stopped campaigning in the DW states of NM,CO, NV and went to the bet the farm on OH and Fla strategy. Obama will not run out of money like Kerry.
NV also has 24% hispanics (Obama winning by 40 points)
The NV polls are flawed, as the only one polling it lately is Rasmussen (4 of the last 6 polls)who besides not updating to July 2008 voter ID numbers he has been cutting all polls by taking 2% voter ID from Dems
those as yourself will never know the difference of his agends of creating a trend line. The story we wants to create is a McCain shifts.
Let me guess...it's a vast right wing conspiracy, right? Look, all I am saying is to either accept the numbers as they are or look at polls favorable to Obama (such as PPP) with the same critical eye.
Scott919.
Once again you people take pride in being ignorant. I analyze very poll. But, I guess you are to dense to relaize that. I don't care who does a poll I look at their crosstabs. You don't b/c you take pride in ignorance and being lead by the nose. It's the logic of a 28%er and a two time Bush voter.
Mule Rider -
Well, there's no easy way to quantitatively evaluate press bias.
Studies that have been done support my take, but it may not be a productive exercise to try to convince you.
However, after I wrote about Craig and Edwards, it did occur to me that one major party presidential candidate in this election admittedly had an affair on his first wife, when she was in poor health. That candidate is not Barrack Obama. Granted it was quite some time ago, whereas Edwards is cheating on his wife right now, but it does seem the McCain situation is getting less press than we would have seen if Gore or Kerry had had a similar history.
I think we can both agree that if either McCain or Obama is arrested in an airport men's room cruising for anonymous gay sex, a lot of press coverage will result, but it seems to me that where the situation is less explosive, "it's more okay if you're a Republican" seems to be the standard.
Mule Rider,
OK, if this is the new, improved MR then you are welcome to join in the discussion.
I will even refrain from calling you Mule Head - which I started only because you were overly confrontational in recent days - if you remain on point & generally behave.
I encourage everyone to just try to get along. Partisanship is fine, but this is a site for electoral projection & analysis so let's all try to stay in bounds, eh ?
God, Mule Rider, would you give it a rest?
Anyone know if Obama is gearing up to release more new ads? My uneducated expectation is that now that he's back from vacation, a new ad should launch before his VP announcement, then a couple more after it, meaning he's going to spend part of his weekend approving some messages.
You don't b/c you take pride in ignorance and being lead by the nose.
Ahhh...and here come the personal attacks. Regardless of what Rasmussen is doing it appears to be working. just the other day someone quoted a poll and you jumped on his case and directed him to the pollster rankings on this website, yet you continually attack Rasmussen and SUSA for being biased regardless of the fact that the very rankings you used to discredit one poll shows RAS and SUSA as two of the most accurate. As such it appears that you accept certain information only when it happens to support your desires.
Mule, you're so cute. You always make me smile... probably because you invariably remind me of a song we sang at our third grade Christmas concert:
A mule is an animal with long funny ears
Kicks up at anything he hears
His back is brawny but his brain is weak
He's just plain stupid with a stubborn streak
And by the way, if you hate to go to school
You may grow up to be a mule
LOL...
It's true you do occasionally move from ad homs to actual facts, and then your posts are worth reading.
In fact I have some questions I want to ask you about elections and stock markets correlations, but I'm waiting until Nate introduces a topic that woudl make my question at least a bit relevant.
In the meantime, do carry on. There are at least 1 or 2 people in here you haven't attacked yet, and I think they're feeling left out.
Mark in VA said...
Obama is falling into the Kerry/Dukakis trap. He campaigned in the primary promising to bring the fight once his opponent wasn't another Democrat. Instead, he has actually become more passive and seems unable to hit McCain and the Regressives in the mouth.
Americans don't like wimps. He's getting bloodied with the ridiculous smears and non-issue attacks, and he isn't fighting back aggressively, much less actually fielding an offense, which is what he really needs to do.
If Colorado slips away, Obama is in serious trouble. He needs to take the fight to McCain and the Regressives, and he needs to play hard and a little dirty.
Hallelujah! I have been echoing this since mid July. All the tough talk about how Obama was gonna fight the republicans, and now he's campaigning like a little girl. McCain has not been on the defensive once since the beginning of July, and that includes the Phil Graham comments which were a gift that Obama completely ignored.
If he's not going to stand up and fight for this thing, let Hillary have a shot, at least the Clintons won't cower in the face of the smears. If you get smeared, you smear right back, twice as hard. If they lie, you lie twice as much. If they attack you, you attack back immediately, twice as hard.
Do not wait for them to attack, thats the Democrats problem, they say, we will defend ourselves. ATTACK. Go on offense, all day every day. Obama has played defense steadily for 2 months. Constantly explaining and defending. If your explaining, your losing. Obama has not been on vacation for a week, he's been on vacation for 2 months. He had better have the worlds best ground game because thats all i can see they have. Get smeared and attacked every day for 2 months steady, then go on vacation for a week in the middle of a foreign policy crisis, lose your lead in the polls, and all I hear from the campaign is "We have a great ground game."
This election is Obama's to lose, and right now he's losing, and its his own fault. The democrats have spent 8 years pissed about how Gore and Kerry never fought back. And they never, and now neither is Obama. After the last eight years, and as bad a candidate as McCain is, it isn't going to matter,if Obama won't defend himself, he has no business defending this country as President.
Speaking of dredging up the past, I ran across numerous online articles this morning about McCain's 'amicable' divorce from wife #1.
Lawsuits & the like & other snarky, silly stuff basically. As a DEM, I feel this is sad even though many feel the REPs deserve it because of how they are acting now & in the past.
But 2 wrongs do not make a right, and I hope that the election does not turn on the dirty tricks & questionable deeds of others.
On the other hand, McCain is fair game on the Keating 5 stuff for sure [why not any play yet ?] and plenty of other stuff including his temperment, wealth, connections, possible abuse of power & position, and numerous gaffes like the water rights issue & social security & veterans issues...
But let's all avoid the slimy personal attacks on the candidates as much as possible...
Scott919,
You really are ignorant and incapable of reading comprehension. As sated before Rasmussen is RepubliCan operative he is trying to create a trend line for McCain by obvious fudging voter ID. It's been proven his voter ID numbers are off. He is given Rep +2 to whatever they had before in every poll across the board, just one example. He was off in voter ID by 5 in a poll just last week that showed a sudden shift to McCain in WI or MN(I have to look it up again which one). He will readjust his voter iD over time so he may come out more accurate than most. His agenda is clear and blatant if yu look at his shifts and errors in voter ID recently.
You are ignorant to the fact that you analyze all data. I have cited and continue to cite board of election ID numbers from states proving the voter ID games. Showing the shifts from 2004 numbers to July 2008. Alot of pollsters are still using 2004 or 2006 numbers.
McCain is fair game on the Keating 5 stuff for sure [why not any play yet ?]
Ummmm...because essentially he was exonerated by an all-Democratic ethics committee and even the Democratic special investigator advised them that there was nothing on McCain in that situation. There's nothing to attack that McCain can't easily defend.
Well, if all that poppycock will destroy McCain....THIS should absolutely VAPORIZE Obama...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ni-bJ-SrGTM
You really are ignorant and incapable of reading comprehension. As sated before Rasmussen is RepubliCan operative he is trying to create a trend line for McCain by obvious fudging voter ID.
uh huh.....you're not seeing little people that live in your mailbox that are trying to steal your brain are you? Tell you what, when you attack a poll that is favorable to Obama with the same tenacity as you attack the others I'll start to take you a little more seriously.
MATT J. H.,
You d orealize that what you said is exactly what the RepubliCons want. They can't win on the issues and want a scum wrestling match. You know what that does? It lowers voter turnout. One of the number one reasons peole cite for not voting is people don;t discuss isues and that it's mudslinging. The RepubliCon base gets excited about this, for example the Corsi book. It is a collection of discounted lies, slanders, and bigotry and was proofread so baddly for accuracy that blatant facts and dates are wrong that can found in a 20 sec search on the web. The RepubliCons win by turning out their base. The fact is if you take a poll of issues the vast majority of people agree with Dem policies but they don't vote as much. The Republicons have gained power by a minority of rabid people to the detriment of the views of te najority. The RepubliCons greatest nightmare is high voter turnout. They do everything in their power to keep turnout low. The easiest way is to turn people off by nasty cmapign that doesn't discuss issues. They don't wnat to chage minds or get poeple involved they want to turnout their rabid types that have set views.
Scott919,
Why don't you post Rasmussen's voter ID verse the board of elections in states such as NV, CO, IA, or any of the close states. Ofcourse you won't b/c it proves Rasmussen is playing games. His shifts are blatant and anyone that looks at crosstabs knows it. You take pride in being ignorant, it's why you are a RepubliCon and a 28%er
Scott919,
McCain was not fully exonorated in the senate. He was only not found sufficiently PROVEABLE guilty because of the high bar & senate sensibilities at that time [how many others were guilty of as much or worse ?].
McCain admitted he srewed up & is tainted by his actions. He did manage to barely avoid censure though - but he needs to be called to explain how he would avoid such egregious conflicts of interest as POTUS [especially given the housing & mortgage & hedge fund & investment banking problems].
His guilt by association is much worse than anything his GOP brethern are trying to tar Obama with [Rezco, Ayers, etc.] so no hypocracy, OK ?
Cranston [DEM] was just as guilty as McCain & the S&L scandal ruined his political future deservedly I might add. But John made a major error of judgement that even he has admitted [but tries to avoid now]. It calls into question his judgement & who he would appoint to run the country [Treasury, Supreme Court, State, Defense, etc].
THAT scares me... most people do not know or remember that scandal which he was indisputably involved in.
Scott919.
You ignorance is amazing. I analyze every poll. I analyze all polls. Keeo the ignornace of bliss that is inherent of you 28%ers.
---"Scott919,
McCain was not fully exonorated in the senate."
Censure is exoneration?
The logic is brilliant!
Gallup finally posted the daily tracker... Obama has ticked up a point.
The curve is starting to look very stable. If it follows the pattern, it will now rise gradually to 47-42 for Obama, and then drift back to a tie.
But I guess the conventions and VP's could scramble the curve from here on out. That will certainly be a welcome break from the current monotony...
filistro,
I agree. Basically looks like a sine wave that will probably continue through mid-September at least.
I wholehartedly disagree with some that say Obama isn't fighting back hard enough. As stated somewhere above, Nationally Obama is running ads that are above the fray, however, statewide (Nevada, Penn, Ohio and soon to be Colorado once Monday hits) he is running very tough ads. Now along with McCains negative ads the punditry continues to ask "is John McCain hurting his image, is he really a maverick? Blah blah blah" However, yesterday was the FIRST time I have seen a pundit ask that question about an Obama ad. It's trying the be the best of both worlds, it remains to be seen if it will work though.
Oh PLEASE don't pay attention to these tracking polls. I find them totally uninformative. An average of one week's poll should be the way that will viewed. The fact that pundits cling to those daily trackers makes me sick to be honest.
someperson,
I agree & try not to allow myself to get sucked into the daily trackers as they are noise to feed the beast only.
Weekly trackers with a good analytical model are more valuable. This year the ECON/YouGov polling has shown to be most useful & reliable for discerning trends that matter.
Gallup & Rasmussen daily trackers are mainly marketing tools, and a 'close' election cycle sells...
Still not much matters until mid-September. And then it will be the regional & state polling that counts.
His guilt by association is much worse than anything his GOP brethern are trying to tar Obama with [Rezco, Ayers, etc.] so no hypocracy, OK ?
Oh I would agree with that, but The Keating 5 is old news. I am sure it will come up again, but the reality is that people already know about it and for the most part they know about McCain. Most people do not know about Obama so when something new pops up about a guy they know little about it will hit harder than something old about a guy they do know about.
You ignorance is amazing.
Yes, you keep saying. In fact I have noticed from reading these blogs that anyone who disagrees with you is ignorant.
BTW...it's hard to take someone very seriously when they make grammatical errors while insulting someone's intelligence.
Scott919
Difference of opinion on that, but you might be right. However, I think that it matters & I would not be surprised if Obama is saving the issue for the debates to hammer McCain on judgement.
Then we shall see perhaps if any of it matters. Price of gas & then the war ending definitely matter more, agreed ?
but it is a meme that I suspect will make the rounds in a higher gear late in the cycle.
I don't understand why it is difficult to comprehend how Rasmussen's party affiliation can change. I mean are statistics really that hard to follow? Less people were found to be Democrats last month. The number of Democrats is still at a rather elevated number. Did you ever think that maybe Nancy Pelosi might be driving borderline Dems over into the Indy category? Notice his number of GOPs are the same.
Rasmussen is just using straight up stats to use calculate how he polls. I don't see a damn thing partisan about that shift. I also don't think the same people crying about the change in affilation would be doing so if it went in the other direction.
...I would not be surprised if Obama is saving the issue for the debates to hammer McCain on judgement.
Possible and that would be the best time to do it if he is going to.
Price of gas & then the war ending definitely matter more, agreed ?
Unquestionably.
I also don't think the same people crying about the change in affilation would be doing so if it went in the other direction.
Which is exactly my point, but they are so busy micro-analyzing everything (which I guess is natural since liberals are micro-oriented by nature [and that's not an insult so don't freak out, Democrats]) that they are missing the big picture. That picture is that this was the Democrats' year to absolutely drill the Republicans and instead they are snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. I've never seen anything like it.
You want pure stats go the board of elections website in states as of July. Ofcourse you won't b/c that exposes the facts of Rasmussen's shenanigans.
Of course you won't b/c that exposes the facts of Rasmussen's shenanigans.
And you are completely missing the point. It's not only Rasmussen that is showing movement, but you are so busy looking at crosstabs with a microscope convinced that the big bad GOP is cooking the books, that you are missing the overall point that Obama should have slammed the door on McCain and instead it's not only wide open but McCain is walking right through.
Given the economy, the war, the price of gas, etc this should be an absolute destruction of the GOP...but it's not. And what you appear to be doing is desperately scouring numbers to explain why the slam dunk is not happening.
OTF,
You can rationalize all you want.
Alter the focus of the lens everytime you don't like a number...but you keep doing that..and you'll never be objective.
I didn't piss and moan about biases in polls when McCain was down in every state imaginable. I didn't cry foul when he was down by almost thirty points in a CA Rasmussen poll. He was behind, pure and simple. But my guess is that it's a little hard to swallow that Obama may not be such a lock to win.
But I guess that makes me a t 28%er or whatever...
Scott919,
Actually by you posts you prove most people, as yourself can be lead by the nose. That's why Rasmussen is playing the games with voter ID, if he creates a false trend then he hopes it will catch on as story line by the media who don't analyze anything about polls. The flase story startswith national polls which mean nothing sicne we have an electoral college system and state polls matter. The false trend starts with Obama up slighlty in national polls disregarding the facts he has continuously above 300+ EV's in state polls. They fudge voter ID in NV for example to show it for McCain and closing in IA, NM, OR. Somehow you have poll with McCain +1 in VA and somehow Obama is polling 57% with AA in VA(20 + points below Kerry or any Dem has done in that state for prez)...get real!
Some such as Rasmussen do it for political purposes, others in the media do it b/c it is in their interest to have a close election. They saw the dollar signs from the Dem primary and invested more than ussual in the election covergae. A blow out election is the last thing they want with low TV interest sfter the ramped up 2008 election coverage.
That's why Rasmussen is playing the games with voter ID
Look, if that's the little thread you want to hold onto that keeps you from calling the suicide hotline, great....knock yourself out.
stop_the_stutter,
Unlike you I look at every poll for accuracy. If i see a poll with ethinic make up in the crosstab is off I take little stock in it, such as 1/3 of the Hispanics eliminated in WA being 3% instead of 9%. If I see a voter party ID off by 6 such as OR I take no stock in it. If I see a poll with Obama getting 57% AA vote I question it. If I see a poll where Obama gets even in evangelicals I question it or 60% white vote. These are all the things that have occurred since May.
If you don't analyze polls for accuracy, you are allowing yourself to be lead by the nose without crititcal analysis. A pollster can make a poll say whetever they want and 99% of people are';t going to look how they got those results.
Scott919,
Please refute anything with facts, as I have shown in atleast 5 threads voter ID numbers from the state election boards as of July 2008 showing the shifts. You have no facts and when challenged to provide them on several occasions you respond wih nothing. I have the facvs and you don't. Case closed!
Please prove that Rasmussen Voter ID numbers are correct based on 2008 numbers. Oh wait you were challenged to that before and you had nothing. Please go away with what little dignity you have left, as you have no facts to refute anything I said. The numbers and data are on my side.
Some such as Rasmussen do it for political purposes,
I KNOW OTF!!!! Scott Rasmussen conferred with the guys on the grassy knoll to fix the election...no wait...he WAS one of the guys on the grassy knoll and he looks so young because he's been using time travel as part of the Philadelphia Experiment!!!
OTF,
Well, if you do it both ways, than it does not harm objectivity.
I see numerous people here complaining about partisan ID. To me that seems straight forward and applied in an appropriate manner month to month as the IDs are found to have changed.
I have one question for you, political leanings aside....do you see a shift in any way that favors McCain?
The numbers and data are on my side.
Dude, you are forgetting that polls are a guess..an educated guess perhaps, but a guess nontheless. What you appear to be doing is micro-analyzing every little number you can find to make them give you some sense of comfort and security about something that simply cannot be known. Then you start coming with conspiracy theories to explain why the numbers don't say what you were hoping they would and at the end of the day you look silly.
No I am not going to go over every crosstab on every poll because I have this tiny little thing called a "life". You might want to think about getting one someday.
Scott919,
Go away. You have proven to be an idiot. You claim the crosstabs are correct, but have no data to support it. In a few seconds I have shown the actual voter Id numbers. Don't claim something without facts, ofcourse ignorance is bliss to you 28% ers.
Like I said go away with what little dignity you have left. You have been made to be a fool.
Scott919,
Btw it takes 30 seconds to review a crosstab. Ofcourse for the intellectually limited as yourself it might take all day. The Voter ID numbers of swing states were published in a RCP article updated for July 2008(based on official state election boards stats). So unless you are incapable of reading 3 columns it takes seconds to spot obvious errors on party ID. Ofcourse ignorance is bliss for you 28% ers and you take pride in being ignorant!
You claim the crosstabs are correct, but have no data to support it.
Actually I never said anything of the sort. I am simply saying that you are focusing so narrowly on these tiny little things that you are missing the point. Again, liberals are usually very micro-oriented so it makes a lot of sense that you would do that, but you are putting WAY too much emphasis on these numbers.
Don't claim something without facts, ofcourse ignorance is bliss to you 28% ers.
You are pointing to polls as facts?!?!? And I'm the fool?!?!? LMAO.
Like I said go away with what little dignity you have left. You have been made to be a fool.
Well I certainly got a rise out you, didn't I? And judging by the reaction of several other posters you have left little doubt as to your foolishness.
i don't watch t.v., so i don't see the weight of ads, let alone attack ads.
i don't have a phone land line, i'm cell phone only, and have never taken part in a poll.
i don't see how a poll of 700 is a fair representation of a state with 4.8 million citizens.
i don't understand how a ras. poll and a ppp poll taken in the same week, can show such different results, unless there is a bias.
i don't drive a car, but i do see more obama stickers on them than mccain stickers.
i don't have a sign in my yard, but i see more obama signs than mccain signs around town.
i live in denver.
we will see the convention, and we will see these polls change.
Scott919,
God you are dumb. The facts are the state election boards voter ID. I nevewr said polls are facts. You questioned blatant and easily findbale facts. People register in one party or another. Are you really that dumb? If a polster fools with the voter ID they can make a poll say anything and morons as yourself will not be the wiser. That's what is happening to create a false trend. If you say a falsehoold long enough idiots belive it, such as Sadam was involved in 9/11..proven false but a majority of idiots still belive it.
Once again you prove that not only can't you read, but that you are woefully ignorant. The combined qualities of 28%er.
The facts are the state election boards voter ID.
Yes I know that. I understand exactly what you are getting at...and as usual you are ignoring the point I am making. Regardless of all the statistical acrobatics you employ to try to validate this poll or discredit that poll, at the end of the day a poll is still just a guess. But instead of looking at the big picture and noticing trends you lock in on these little microscopic things convinced that the Republicans are influencing them for their evil gains and regardless of the FACT that the Pollster Ratings on this site (that in the past you have pointed to in order to invalidate other polls) list RAS and SUSA as among the most accurate, you constantly look for little things here and there in order to disregard information that does not suit you.
Now as joyful as this has been...I have to get back to that life thing I was talking about earlier. But before I go I have a piece of wisdom for you...."Pimozide"....ask for it by name.
McCain has released negative ads within the last few weeks, and while it is reflected as bumps in many battleground states, it is part of a pre-emptive strategy to ruin Obama. However, to Obama's credit, he has hit McCain hard in key states like Nevada, Indiana, and Ohio, and McCain continues to make gaffes such as the one about invading other nations and re-opening the Colorado Water compact.
If McCain wanted to win Colorado, it looks a LOT less likely after that water gaffe. The Democrats will be in Colorado in full force, and Obama will get a solid bump there.
The larger point is that in September and October, beginning at the start of the GOP convention, Obama is going to release a barrage of hard-hitting attack ads that will truly show McCain's record. Why do you think he has so much cash on hand and has not advertised as heavily as McCain?
The Obama campaign is reserving finances for an all out TV assault when it counts...the weeks leading up to the election.
If Obama was consistently trailing in the polls, this would be an issue within the campaign. However, Obama continues to lead where it matters, and even though Colorado is close, no one has really broken out of the margin of error in a while. Obama leading by 1 or 2 points or trailing by 1 or 2 points does not mean that a state is a lock. Obama led in Virginia by 1 to 2 points and recently McCain has led by 1 to 2 points, yet some people are suggesting that Obama pull out. Some people on here have also suggested that Obama pull out of Florida, even though he has been extremely competitive there lately compared to earlier this year. In March, Obama was trailing McCain in a Florida Rasmussen poll by 10 points (50-40), and the latest Rasmussen poll had him leading (49-47). Its still really close, and McCain is favored to win there, but its still a close state.
Why should Obama abandon states where he trails within 1 or 2 points? That doesn't even make any sense at all. McCain has been behind in Pennsylvania, Minnesota, and Oregon for months--yet no one has suggested that McCain abandon those states. Everyone seems to love having Tim Pawlenty as VP even though the man barely was elected and was re-elected with only 47 percent of the vote. How is he going to help McCain get over that 50 percent mark if he failed to do it himself? Pawlenty's poor record in the state won't help any, coupled with Obama's popularity in the state.
Gore pulled out of Ohio early in 2000 and it was a complete mistake as he only ended up losing narrowly. With the millions of newly registered voters in key battleground states, it would be idiotic to pull out somewhere if the candidate trails very narrowly. Obama is not going to pull out of Florida, a state with 27 electoral votes, unless he is consistently trailing below 45 percent by mid-October.
Colorado has been close all year and a 44-41 McCain lead or a 45-44 Obama lead does not mean they will win there. Some of the people on here should really analyze trends before posting on here.
Scott919,
You truly are dumb. The trend is being created by incorrect voter ID. Pollsters and the media have interest in the appearance of a very close election for money making purposes. The saw a windfall in the Dem primary and want to repeat it again. In the primary they created the illusion that Hillary could win, floating wild scenarios despite she was essentailly mathematically eliminated from winning by late april. She needed 70% of the remaining delegates. But it was in there interest not acknopwledge that.
Btw, if you think your smart mentioning a drug, you should atleast know what the drug does, as you obviously don't. I am a MD. Try some seroquel for yourself and some ACE's or ARB's for the wifey for the HTN exacerbated by your ignorance. Please continue them while when she pregnant and use phenytoin too for pre-eclampsia or eclampsia, it's something you would deserve.
McCain's Colorado comment seems right in line with the "straight talk" image he wants to re-cultivate. This is similar to opposing ethanol subsidies in Iowa and telling Michiganders that the jobs aren't coming back.
Those weren't politically wise things to say either, but they haven't lost him either state. His standing in Iowa is about the same relative to national polls as Bush's was, and he's doing relatively better in Michigan.
McCain will live down this Colorado flap as well, and if it gets national attention it will improve his independent image in other swing states.
Did anyone consider that maybe McCain's campaign is actually trying to pick this fight?
http://www.gjsentinel.com/hp/content/gen/ap/WST_McCain_Colorado_River.html
H2O Thivery!!!! or the weekly obama endgame as presented at 538.
McCains response to the issue, link repeated below.
http://www.gjsentinel.com/hp/content/gen/ap/WST_McCain_Colorado_River.html
I seem to recall that this issue comes up every so often out west, as do most regional issues.
If this does become a "national" election issue IMO will know by end of the news cycle Monday. By that I mean this issue has either aired on the likes of Olberman on the left to OReily on the right, and/or the others in the middle.
However after tonights interview format I predict we will continue to see more "McGains," well-phrased Sean.
I'm just so tired of people who don't understand about the troubles of McCain and they better start realizing that if he wins we will have more of the same old garbage from "W"! Higher gas prices, bad economy, more war, and CEO's getting more greedy! I have a question for you people living in those swing states, you think we'll be better off with McCain? If you think so then I think you have a serious problem! Obama in 08'!
I have written several posts on Colorado and its nuances.
The Democrat Convention will get a lot of local TV and print media hype especially in the Denver market.
However, on balance I would say that the convention has been a negative for Obama as it has been the source of a series of fiascos and petty corruptions (DNC organizers using tax free City of Denver gasoline pumps, shipping street people to the zoo, etc) that are playing badly for the Ds.
On way or another, I think the convention moves Obama on a different track from the Convention bounce model that Nate has developed. A flawless convention could move Obama more than the +6% Nate has as the peak bounce, likewise, any troubles or further corruption disclosures could cause Obama to move up less than +6% in Colorado.
Obama is spending heavily on Denver TV. BTW I just got back from Florida Saturday and McCain is using a lot of radio (both RW talk stations and sports talk).
Cheers Glenn (former CO state rep)
To make every vote in every state politically relevant and equal in presidential elections, support the National Popular Vote bill.
The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted by states possessing a majority of the electoral votes (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).
The National Popular Vote bill has been approved by 21 legislative chambers (one house in CO, AR, ME, NC, and WA, and two houses in MD, IL, HI, CA, MA, NJ, RI, and VT). It has been enacted into law in Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These states have 50 (19%) of the 270 electoral votes needed to bring this legislation into effect.
see http://www.NationalPopularVote.com
Susan
Colorado Insights:
If you look at two baseline party votes Gordan-Coffman and Kennedy-Hillman (2006 SOS and Treasurer races) the baseline is definately drifting D. The reasons for this are complex and attributing them solely to demographics is a mistake. The Democrats are far better funded and organized in recent elections than the GOP.
Coffman (R) was the stronger candidate winning the SOS against Gordan by 1.5%. But both had good name ID. Kennedy was a Dem financial analyst who had worked on some ballot initiatives and was known to Denver media. Hillman was a rural state senator without a lot of metro name ID. Democrat women tend to poll well in Colorado against Republican men, so part of Hillman-Kennedy (D-Kennedy won +2.6%) measures the female gender advantage.
Neither of these races had third party candidates.
The statewide CU regent race with two low name ID, low campaign $ players plus three third party players went GOP +1. The trouble here is that the 3 thirds probably distort the baseline margin. The Libertarian got 3.4 and the far right ACP (Alan Keyes is on the Colorado ballot) got 3.9%. An unaffiliated independent got 3.7%.
The governor's race featured a devout pro-life catholic democrat (Ritter) against a one-term republican Congressman. Ritter won by 17 points (57.0 - 40.2). October and November polling had been pretty good, save Zogby:
Survey USA November 2, 2006 57% 35%
Zogby/WSJ October 31, 2006 46.4% 46.6%
Rasmussen October 29, 2006 51% 39%
Survey USA October 23, 2006 56% 38%
Zogby/WSJ October 19, 2006 46.7% 44.7%
Mason Dixon October 7, 2006 50% 35%
The Libertarian got 1.5%. Barr is on the Colorado ballot.
Here's an interesting angle to ponder, Colorado's 4th CD:
Incumbant right-winger Musgrave held off her challenger by 2.5% with a strong Reformed Party candidate getting 11.3%. The State Board of Ed 4th CD race (a pure party line vote with two males and no thirds went GOP by 14%).
Minority candidates do well in Colorado where race is as much as anywhere in the USA a non-issue.
Romney beat McCain soundly in the Colorado in the caucus.
In my opinion, the Convention is hurting Obama on balance. While the buzz and media on the convention is a positive for Obama, the petty scandals (tax free gasoline from City of Denver pumps) and gaffs (homeless will be shipped to zoo, secret warehouse prison for protesters) doesn't play in a clean government state like Colorado. If more diversions of City of Denver money (or offloaded costs) are exposed this will play badly. Also the City of Denver (I work in ground zero downtown) is being turned into a combat zone. The employees in the next building over had to sign liability waivers over being tear gassed or locked down). Anything close to a recreation of '68 will damage Obama in Colorado.
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便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
菲
梵,
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