Yet another pollster has weighed in on Florida, and they have good news for John McCain. This time, it's InsiderAdvantage, which shows McCain with a 4 point lead. This is InsiderAdvantage's first poll of the state, and consists of a small sample size -- barely more than 400 people. Nevertheless, this is about where Florida feels like it should be. True, as the InsiderAdvantage write-up notes, Barack Obama has been investing a ton of advertising money into Florida. On the other hand, he's coming back from margins that consistently showed him 7 or 8 points behind earlier in the cycle -- and while McCain hasn't invested on the airwaves, Florida is the only state where he has an advantage on the ground, with more than 30 field offices open.
SurveyUSA has new polls out in North Carolina and Kentucky. The North Carolina result is McCain +4, a nominal decline from his 5-point lead last month, but essentially the same result we've seen in poll after poll of North Carolina for months and months. McCain's lead in Kentucky is 18 points -- a significant improvement from his 12-point margin in SurveyUSA's last poll in mid-June, but a long way behind some of his previous margins in the state, as SurveyUSA had shown McCain ahead by as many as 36 points earlier on.
The poll getting the most buzz today is in Alaska, where Hays Research Group shows Barack Obama ahead by 5. For the time being, however, I am not including this poll in our averages. Although the poll was published on the Hays website in full view of the public, the fine print says that it was paid for by the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers, which qualifies as a Political Action Committee (as well as a union that endorsed Obama). I have e-mailed the pollster to clarify the origins of this poll and may include it based on their responses to those questions -- however, for now, I am considering it an internal poll and leaving it out. For those of you who are desperate for some fresh numbers in Alaska, I did come across this poll from Ivan Moore, which had John McCain 2.4 points ahead of Obama as of mid-July.
Obama's overall win percentage has ticked upward a bit to 65.4 percent, its highest point in a couple of weeks, largely because Obama has held a pretty decent position in the national tracking polls for several days running now. But really, there's been very little movement in this race for nearly a full month.
8.13.2008
Today's Polls, 8/12
@ 12:17 AM
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41 comments
One month? Except for a small temporary boost after winning the nomination, this race has been so flat since 6/04 that if it were a cardiac patient the docs would have declared him dead a long time ago.
I think it's an amazing feat that you're actually growing the number of people here in an general election season that's, let's face it, been unbelievably boring. You write excellent articles, your stats are easy to follow (even if I have some disagreement with a few of them), and you've done a nice job of getting the site noticed elsewhere.
Keep up the good work!
P.S. I'm a Reds fan. Is Owings going to pitch for them, or play first base?
These new polls seem like status quo. How did Obama's numbers tick upward with them added?
WY Win% is cut off on the graphic.
The next few days could be rough for Obama, as the anti-Russia media-mongers look askance at Obama's appeal for restraint from violence, seemingly championing McCain's b.s. hard-line, which suggests that Russia has no right to protect its interests in its immediate vicinity, even after violent provocation.
McCain is still fighting the Cold War, and the pundits are still lapping it up ...
Wasn't there just a ceasefire? Even if Americans/media is anti-Russia, I don't think Americans can stomach antagonizing or a renewed call for aggression. People are sick of Iraq war and it is the Olympics. I don't think Obama will face long last negative impact from his call to restraint.
The Obama and McCain Campaigns' strategies in Florida are interesting. In many ways, they are the antithesis of how they are proceeding in other states. It seems that nationally, McCain is focusing his money -- especially considering what many have predicted will be his more limited resources -- on defining Obama on through commercials while Obama is pushing money into feet on the ground. The opposite appears true in Florida.
Can someone explain the forces at play?
The Georgian government has endorsed a cease-fire plan negotiated through the French government. It is favorable to Russia, but it also shows the effectiveness of diplomacy and cooperation. A strong point of Obama's foreign policy orientation.
such sweet thunder,
The Florida strategies seem to be a remenant of the primary campaigns. McCain already has a large ground operation because of the effort he put in their, and thus thinks he can hold Obama off on that basis (groud-ops) alone.
Because Florida did not count in teh Dem. primary, Obama is late to the poker game, and seems thus to be trying to buy his way in, while he gets on a read on his opponent, so to speak.
LandStander,
I certainly hope you're right, but I haven't been impressed with the media coverage (spin?), especially the Post. I think Obama has to highlight what Sarkozy was able to do without making himself seem too Francophilic, because for some reason that's a crime here in the States.
I hear the G7 is actually considering kicking Russia out of the G8, but much of this may just to posturing on both sides. This would be a good place for Obama to come out strongly in favor of diplomacy and actually acknowledging other nations as soverign, both territorially and in their local interests.
But Obama's more recent statements have echoed the status quo, retreating even from his initial evenhandedness. This suggests a political recalibration ... which only time will help resolve.
Mark, please read Nate's last paragraph. National polls have an influence on the numbers through the trend-adjustment of the state-by-state projections
Obviously, McCain has an advantage in Florida and he should win there. Lots of Southerners have moved into the pan-handle from other Southern states since 2000 and brought their right-wing extremism with them.
The state wasn't that close in 2004 and Obama is black, which should make it even harder.
I don't think Obama believes that Florida is going to be important for him. He might win if he gets above a +5% popular vote margin, but at that point it will hardly matter since it'll be a landslide anyway.
I think he's investing in Florida simply to put pressure on McCain, and because something may break his way later in the fall.
I remain unconvinced that there's a direct correlation between how many $ you spend on advertising and how well you do.
Now that I've been barraged with political ads here in Colorado for the first time, it's becoming obvious to me that you start to tune them out. "Oh, it's that one again."
Worse, if both candidates are fighting each other in dueling ads, it feels like they cancel each other out. You watch a postive Obama ad, and then there's a negative McCain ad attacking him. The next Obama ad attacks McCain for being "old style politics." Yada. Yada.
I imagine if one candidate blankets the air-waves and the other is silent it's bad, but if both are on the air at the same time, it's unlikely to have a dramatic effect one way or the other.
Mostly, the ads play to your base. They like them, the opposition hates them, and the other side's ads just fly right past you. "Blah, blah, blah, whatever."
No comment from our red friend Pete Kent yet ?
wonder how he will try to counter-spin today's results that show a stable race or slight uptick for Obama in Nate's simulations based on hard data.
Poor Pete spent the evening on the previous post attempting to convince someone/anyone/everyone that the EV graph was shifting toward McCain.
oops, Pete. look it has actually shifted back toward Obama again & the EV vote projection is right back up at 300 +/- [again].
give us a rest from the McCain taling points please... let the facts speak for themselves.
Also, remember that Nate is trying to project the election out to the fall. My impression is that if Obama's numbers are steady, as time goes on, there's a higher and higher chance of him winning in the fall. Indeed, if he were to win all of the states on the map that are considered "blue" at the moment, he would win. If Obama continues to have about a four point lead across the board, from now until election day, he's pretty much going to win, barring shenanigans. Presumably the model will reflect this as time goes on.
This is reflected in the idea that McCain needs to find some chink in the Obamarmor, something which he hasn't been able to do yet, even with two weeks of negative ads. If he can't find a weak spot, it will become more and more clear to the people capable of rational thought, that Obama is Obaminevitable.
Nate, since the Alaska survey is related, I'll reiterate that I made in e-mail that the Capital Research Survey Center in Alabama is the in-house pollster at the Alabama Education Association (the state teachers' union). Gerald Johnson is a very strong pollster but including his work is clearly against your stated policy.
I don't think the Georgia/Russia situation will have much impact. Sarkozy, as current president of the EU, doused the flames pretty quickly.
As for removing Russia from the G8, forget it. Europeans need the gas coming from Russia.
McCain can bark all he wants, he has no bite (that's why Dubya said almost nothing).
I guess we have a pretty good impression of the race in NC now ;-). The state has been stable at +4 McCain just as the race has been stable overall. For Democrats on the offensive it´s a pretty good result. If we add several long-term effects that favor Obama (a revere Bradley effect, Obama outperforming the polls in the primary, ground organisation) it´s surely worth a shot.
Alaska, too... I heard the mayor of Fairbanks has endorsed Obama now (Republican Jim Whitaker). With the mayors of Fairbanks and Anchorage (Begich) as stage directors, Obama could reach out to a majority of Alaskan citizens with just 2 campaign stops - if he visited it.
It´s maybe a bit unfair to see every close result in favor of McCain as a potential Obama-state, and every close blue state as a state Obama will defend. But on the other hand, Obama still lacks a bit of support from his own party, and he has an organisation advantage. And the political climate is favoring Democrats this year, and Obama might still be a bit of a hazy figure among low-information voters, compared to the old-white guy and war hero.
I wonder if the Florida campaign of the Obama campaign is aimed at older people. They are probably less inclined and able to engage in campaigning on the ground. TV ads could be the most effective weapon there - if the campaign aims at winning over the hesitant older Democrats, while neglecting younger moderate people who might follow Gov. Crist into McCain´s camp.
And I agree with litejedi. If the race stays static in its current shape Obama´s chance to win will increase day by day. There might come a time when McCain has to run a race already won by Obama - just like Clinton did. The difference will then be that Obama can still take nothing for granted. A single gaffe (albeit that would have to be a really awfully stupid gaffe, which McCain is more likely to make atm) could destroy his campaign. But then, that´s what would have cost him the primary, too, because of the super delegates.
re FL:
who says McCain is not on TV in FL ? here in central FL his ads are all over the airwaves, both cable & broadcast. at least as many as Obama - maybe more.
McCain likely has a small lead in FL as the polls suggest - but it is extremely soft. Much more anti-Obama than pro-McCain.
But in 2 more months IF Obama keeps up the heavy Positive ads introducing himself AND if the Dems seat the entire FL delegation in Denver with the publicized support from Obama Plus should gas prices & oil continue to fall THEN Obama can possibly win here with a strong last minute blitz of ads + high AA & youth voter turnout in Nov.
In reality, FL is not that important to reach 270 EV - at best a Plan C or D. Obama will flip VA, CO, & OH - maybe even NV, AK & MT easier than FL.
FL would just be the gravy that goes with a BIG ol' EV biscuit.
AZ would be the icing on a landslide cake... it could happen !
A question for Nate: Do you include subgroup polls into your regression? The christian voter poll from Goddard´s political wire on the left column of this page has captured my interest.
P.S.: Am I a bit paranoid if I complain about the 2 pictures on the top of aforesaid Barna Group poll? It looks like McCain is the presidential candidate and Obama is the caddie.
User Obedelman had this to say on pollster regarding this poll:
This poll contains absolutely great news for Obama if you know how to read it. Just look at the crosstabs. If the poll is believed, Obama is winning independents by thirty points and Hispanics by forty points. The ONLY reason McCain is in front is because the sample is weighted with more Republicans (171) than Democrats (159). If the reverse was true, Obama would be leading by a few points (this is not even counting, of course, the registered but "unlikely" voters that have been excluded).
Is it too much to ask for these polling firms to stop misleading the public in this way? It fine if they want to weight the sample based on guesses as to who is going to turn out, but at least their press release should explain that is what they are doing. By reading the release, one would think Obama is tanking in Florida, when in fact the poll indicates he will likely win if his voter registration and turnout efforts are reasonably successful.
Posted on August 12, 2008 7:37 PM
We've reached a lull in the campaign. Obama is on vacation, the Olympics have taken center stage, and it seems the McCain celebrity angle has proven a dud.
Theres no sense of McCain trying to break through until the Olympics are over and then its the Dems center stage for the VP choice and the conventions. McCain's VP choice is irrelevant", Obama's choice however is intriguing. Re-enforce change or sure up experience. From all reports it appears Obama won't pick until late next week and that he has yet not made up his mind. My bet is on sureing up experience with Joe Biden.
Obama/Biden 08
Has a nice ring to it
McCain has made countless gaffes already and they're ignored by the MSM. Apparently maverick's get free passes. Expect more of the same.
I'm a Vet registered as an Independent and totally opposed to McCain. What wars has he ever won?
I've just skimmed the FAQs so far... On Countdown Nate said that the margin of error is currently 7-8% and will be more accurate after the Conventions and 1st Debate. Does that mean one should take the polls and projections with a pinch of salt until that time?
Multi-state strategy:
As we all know, Team Obama plans to keep McCain on the EV defense by spreading the map.
As long as red states CO, OH, IN, MO, VA, NC & FL stay relatively close [5% +/-] or within the MOE then Obama's EV odds remain at least 2:1
Should the longer shots like AK, MT, ND, SD & GA stay in play then Obama would be more like 3:1 or 4:1 in November.
High stakes poker indeed, but who is holding & who is bluffing ? Team Obama showed they knew how to play stategically to win the end game in the primaries.
Wasn't it just two weeks ago when things were going real bad for Obama. McCain was attacking every day, the Paris ad came out, race accusations were flying around and Obama had a couple bad pole numbers?
It seems that was all a distant memory now as the race has stabilized with Obama carrying a 3-4 point lead. I know there are a lot of back and forth in the comments every time a big pole switches one way or another, but this race will shift back and forth s bunch more times before the election, and we should play it cool like Barack does and not sweat the day to day nonsense and stick with the big picture.
Polls right now are irrelevant. Nate is completely right that the conventions, VP picks and debates are big events likely to push voter sentiment back and forth. None of this polling matters until mid October when the Obama people believe it will break in their favor and guide them to a convincing victory. They are very good at predicting this stuff, (Just ask Hillary) so we should put less emphasis on polling and more on atmospherics.
I hope you can all indulge me with one more comment: I have to agree with the other posters who have remarked on the stability of this race, with the exception of bumps after the nomination and overseas trip. But should this really surprise us?
This is exactly what we saw during the drawn-out primary between Clinton and Obama. By Super Tuesday the candidates all but had their demographics locked in. And the only time their numbers shifted was when one candidate didn't campaign in a state. I.e. Clinton in WI, MS, WY . . . Obama in KY, WV.
Both candidates will get a bump after their respective conventions but I'm beginning to wonder if this race has been decided. I keep going back to the primary in Indiana, where Obama had been getting pounded by Clinton for a month, his polling numbers were way down, but the election results reflected exactly what you would expect from reading the demos.
I know Nate said on Olbermann that Presidential elections have a margin of error of about 9% at this time in the election season. But every Presidential election is different. Because of the drawn out primary, and the enthusiasm surrounding Obama, and by proxy McCain, everyone knows these candidates.
Basically, I wonder if this is it. This isn't a Dukakis or a Dole election where the general population and low-info voters are learning about our candidates one months before the election. Just like how, by Super Tuesday everyone knew Clinton and Obama, everyone knows Obama and McCain; and that, provided that each candidate does minimal campaigning in each state, perhaps the race is already decided -- decided for whom, we can't be sure.
This poll contains absolutely great news for Obama if you know how to read it. Just look at the crosstabs. If the poll is believed, Obama is winning independents by thirty points and Hispanics by forty points. The ONLY reason McCain is in front is because the sample is weighted with more Republicans (171) than Democrats (159). If the reverse was true, Obama would be leading by a few points (this is not even counting, of course, the registered but "unlikely" voters that have been excluded).
Florida is one of those weird states that voter registration still favors Republicans. In 2006, 3% more Rep. came out to vote. The thing about Florida that makes it a swing state is that "independents" aren't independent. Most of the time they vote overwhelmingly for the Democratic candidate.
I remain skeptical that Florida can pull it off for Obama. I still like the idea of putting resources into it. In poker, we'd call it pot odds. You know the odds are against you, but if you win, the pot is big enough that it makes the investment worthwhile. If Obama wins Florida, the election is over. I think McCain knows that and will have to match his investment there.
Obama's weakness among seniors leads me to believe its a steep hill to climb though.
Dems Reps Ind
6/08 4,348,026 3,904,032 2,280,826
Dems have had the advantage for years. Reps just turn out much more.
Florida is notorious for all kinds of shenanigans. Do not expect the Republicans to allow Obama to win there. They'll purge duly registered voters from the rolls, station policemen with guns drawn at roadblocks near polling places in largely black neighborhoods, engage in outright electronic vote fraud, etc. Nate, you HAVE to figure such fraudulent practices into your projections, somehow.
2 other polls out today:
Pennsylvania, (Franklin & Marshall)
Obama +5.0
Obama 46, McCain 41
New Jersey, (Quinnipiac)
Obama +10.0
Obama 51, McCain 41
I don`t see why Obama is wasting so much money in Florida, it`s not winnable for him unless he is winning in a giant landslide nationwide.
On the other hand McCain can`t win unless he takes Florida,Ohio and probably Michigan.
I expect starting after the convention Obama should maintain a 10 point plus lead unless something major happens.
The debates will decide this race. I expect McCain will do poorly in the one on one debates because he won`t have Lieberman there to tell him what to say.
The guy just looks like a cranky old man, even the republicans I know do not like the guy they just feel he`s all they have.
If polls show Obama winning big, the gop voters will just stay home.
I am a Fractal You make a very good point but there have been multiple polls and they pretty much all show McCain ahead. I just don't see Obama breaking the ceiling in that state. It is like CO, it is close, but Obama has won virtually every poll in the state.
Nate is so biased. If that Hays Research Group poll had produced a good result for Obama, I'm sure he would have included it.
Obama leading by 5 isn't a good result?
McCain is still fighting the Cold War, and the pundits are still lapping it up ...
It will backfire...people around here aren't looking to restock the Axis of Evil, and this from a red state.
I found the Survey USA NC numbers really interesting. The topline looks the same, but you'll notice that they only have a 19% AA vote which is below their 21% registration share, so its probably closer than that. With an effective GOTV, we are probably looking at a race that is inching towards too close to call.
For me, Florida and North Carolina fall into the same category. Obama is unlikely to win them and if he does, he will be headed for a landslide anyway. While he should therefore focus more on critical states such as Michigan, Ohio and Colorado, he would be foolish to ease off in FL and NC.
Both states will be critical in 2010 and 2012 and it is vital that the Dems build up their bases in both states. It also forces McCain to spend vital resources in those states as he simply cannot afford to sit by if Obama starts to show polling leads there. I do agree though with Republican posters in their assessment that neither state is likely to go blue this time.
We really need some more polling in Ohio which is without doubt the most important state this time despite Obama's alternate routes to victory. If Obama wins Ohio it's over. Period
Good polling news here for McCain. Obama has wasted millions and made barely a dent. NC is not budging either.
Have their been any fundraising reports for July yet?
McCain announced June right at the beginning of July but Obama waited until the practically the deadline to report. I wonder if they are playing chicken with the numbers?
Surely what McCain desperately needs is at least one or two polls showing him actually ahead in New Hampshire and/or Michigan. Those states are still very close but Obama is maintaining his slight lead there.
Rasmussen will release polls today on KS, VA and NV. The latter are interesting and last month Rasmussen had McCain up 1 in VA and Obama up 2 in NV. I wouldn't expect much change though my (completely baseless) feel is that McCain is ahead in NV not Obama.
Their tracker still has Obama up by 2. I think we are now in a holding pattern until the conventions. The Dem convention could (I hope) be a media wankfest if the Clintons play ball though it could be a disaster if Bill is unable to hide his snippiness (sic). The Rep convention will be relatively uneventful and McCain will be keen to downplay appearances by Bush and Cheney although, as always, both candidates will benefit in the short term from being on the news for 4 days running.
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