Just repeating what I reported in the Twitter thread, but I have a trustworthy source telling me that the GOP VP nominee will be someone other than Tim Pawlenty.
That's all I can report to you because that's all that I know. My source believes he knows the identity of the actual VP nominee but will not tell me who it is. None of this is 100%. It's possible that I'm being played, and it's possible that my source is. But I don't think so, and I believe it's more likely that the McCain campaign was playing the media.
Consider particularly that a lot of the fuel for this rumor seems to be coming from Drudge, who is one of the first two places that a conservative campaign will go if it wants to circulate a false rumor to deke the media (Bob Novak still probably being the other). And also consider that there's very little downside in doing this. It eats up column inches from Obama's excellent performance at Invesco tonight, while still generating plenty of buzz when the name of the actual VP is revealed.
8.29.2008
Source: It's Not Pawlenty
@ 12:41 AM
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OK, good, so I haven't lost any money on Mittens. Yet. :)
It's Portman.
There is an old saying about the three types of lies: lies, damn lies and statistics.
This site used to mostly be about the third type of lie! Now it is also about the fourth and fifth types of lies, rumors and gossip.
But of course, if we had any real, certain information, we wouldn't have much to talk about, would we?
I wonder how his VP announcement tomorrow is going to play against Katrina's third anniversary, with Gustav imminent.
That can't help but highlight a massive political failure on the part of the current administration and will be like free fodder for the Dems if they choose to use it.
Alex Castellanos', CNN's resident right wing talking head said it best in response to Obama's speech,
"who ever doesn't get picked by McCain is probably lucky."
As a Minnesotan,Pawlenty is a terrible pick. Vetoing road construction funds, having your vice governor also double as the transportation commissioner, and then having a bridge collapse on you is probably not a good start towards a vice-presidency.
Anyhow, on another subject...
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080828/ap_on_el_pr/cvn_conventions_the_bounce;_ylt=AnTM5eHIDxJ8gqIxlfruRy1h24cA
"The largest for Republicans: the 14-point increases George W. Bush gained in 2000 and that Richard Nixon enjoyed in 1968, and the 13-point bounce Ronald Reagan got in 1980. Clinton and Bush won their first races for president; Nixon, who narrowly lost in 1960, won in 1968 by nearly half a million votes.
The smallest bounces were the 4-point drop John Kerry saw in his margin against President Bush in 2004, and the 3-point reduction George McGovern endured in 1972 against President Nixon. Both Democrats lost.
These quick popularity boosts don't always mean much. In 1964, President Johnson and Republican Barry Goldwater saw convention bounces of about the same size, while in 1984 Democrat Walter Mondale's 16-point boost was double President Reagan's. Johnson and Reagan won landslides.
In 2004 Bush got the smallest GOP bounce measured yet — 2 points — and was re-elected."
I don't think you can count "bounce" in a re-election. The four contenders who had big bounces were all elected President. In fact, and this is kinda strange, we've had four Presidents re-elected since JFK. Those four had the four largest 'bounces' after their convention trying for their first term.
So, so far, having a large Bounce not only implies that you'll win, but that you'll also win re-election. Funky. I know, correlation vs. causation and all that, but it's still a neat little stat.
Question to ask self. Why does this person know, and why would he want to tell you anything?
Pawlenty's start in state politics began as a campaign advisor for Jon Grunseth's 1990 losing bid for Minnesota governor.[16] His connections to Grunseth's former wife, Vicky Tigwell, would later involve him in an ethics and accountability call with his private employment in 2003.[17][18]
John Grunseth (A fourth woman said Tuesday that IR gubernatorial candidate Jon Grunseth was among the men who were swimming in a pool with nude teenage girls.)
Hey, didn't Gore beat Bush by about 500,000 votes? What was his bounce?
It won't be romney, it won't be lieberman.. so if it isn't Pawlenty, then who?
Palin? Portman?
Pawlenty is really the only untainted candidate who still holds strong conservative values.
Jindal?
Pawlenty seems like the perfect VP candidate, and an excellent choice for punching holes in the grassroots economy narrative that the democrats have successfully established over the course of their convention.
He's also very good at attacking Obama without sounding mean-spirited or soft-handed.
On MSNBC they just reported Mittens has NO plans to travel to Ohio, and the Huskster says he was never vetted,
Pawlenty said he'd leave the announcement to McCain with out the denial of Mittens.
matthew h:
that's actually really interesting. thank you for providing us the link and your analysis.
McCain would be a fool to pick Pawlenty. My Money's on Ridge.
http://voteforamerica.net/editorials/Comments.aspx?ArticleId=37&ArticleName=Kerry+States%3a+Cornerstone+of+Election
earlier, i had drafted a whole post discounting all of mccain's possible female VP picks, and then deleted it because i figured it was moot - it was pawlenty.
anyway, i don't think it's possible he picks a woman, and if he does i think it will be a mistake.
Someone said that Pawlenty was the perfect choice for the republicans. I founded the young republicans clus at my high school but am an avid Obama supporter. I won't pretend to know what appeals to republicans but as far as independent minded people, who I consider myself to be, Pawlenty doesn't do much for undecideds like Biden does. I don't think McCain has a perfect ticket balancer. There is noone really that reinforces McCain's message of Obama is scary or that dramatically changes the map, or that really has a wow factor. So what should McCain's choice endeavor to be? And who is the perfect fit for that endeavor?
Erick Erickson at redstate has a post titled
Get To Know Tim Pawlenty
posted at 07:09PM
they believe it
And the possible moving of the convention and or Bush not speaking at the convention is interesting. I bet they won't move it but use Gustav as a good excuse to low light the convension and have Bush stay off the same stage as McCain so as not to give credence to the John Bush George McCain image. This might make taking down Obama's bounce a lot harder if they do not have a great convention. With it being overshadowed by Gustav. This is going to making the polling wierd
I still think he needs a VP with independent appeal...whoever that may be.
Any ideas?
Pawlenty knows what to say to evangelicals. Aside from that, he's marginal.
As for "punching holes in the grassroots economy narrative"...well, he's punching holes in the Minnesota economy, at least. And he's following in the Bush tradition of appointing ideologically-correct incompetents, so that's a "plus", unless you live in MN.
He's never been a POW, though, which is apparently very important. Nor has he been in the military, which seems to be some kind of requisite for being patriotic, so I'm not sure how he'll take on Obama's "patriotism issues".
Also, Pawlenty hasn't actually cut taxes - just frozen them so that all of the increases get passed down the line to county and local levels. He's great with forcing unfunded mandates on lower levels of government, too, so the GOP should like him just fine.
In response to a Thursday question about his qualifications, Pawlenty said that he was -- get this -- commander-in-chief of the Minnesota National Guard.
What a joke.
Also, not only can the bridge collapse be laid at Pawlenty's feet since he vetoed the transportation bill (and this will make this "Republican incompetence leading to disaster" week), but he's never won a majority of the vote for MN Governor.
Well InTrade ain't buying your spiel Nate. T-Paw is north of 70 now
@ Matthew H
intereting link that.
Lets say that Obama went into this (just before picking Biden) approximately 2 points ahead.
The Democrats just had a cracking convention (main speeches anyway). Given that Gallup poll earlier, and your link, I think a 10 point bounce is about the minimum
Again from the link, Bush only got +2 in 2004. I can't see McCain getting more than +5 with most of the speakers being the same and the economy much worse.
+2+10-5 = +7. OK, Based on Nates work the +10 will have regressed slightly in a week, but basically Obama should have a minimum 5% lead in the polls after the Republican Convention. Quite possibly closer to 10%....
Eponymous,
I think he'd like to pick Lieberman or Ridge or someone but he knows he'd never be able to get away with it. I think a woman like Palin would really show the country the Republican party isn't sexist and would reach out to feminists (Palin calls herself a feminist) who would rather vote for a man and a woman than two men.
Would a woman really reopen the Hillary wound or is that wound healed? That is a hell of a question the McCain camp is asking themselves I bet
I bet McCain will go with his original choice -- Paris Hilton.
Just fyi, I believe the pick is Sarah Palin. Check out the palinforvp.blogspot.com comments on the latest post.
hmm Palin's an interesting idea. I think it may be a strong choice, just because it's aggressive and unconventional. And conventional is consistently not getting him to a significant lead over Obama.
I don't know what kind of risks that entails though.
after tonight especially McCain must go outside the box or he will prove he is the same old tired politician that Obama said he was in tonight's great speech...
Obama through down the gauntlet on temperment & judgment so McCain's VP pick will be critical & highly scrutinized for what it says & does not say.
>Lieberman ? old man, warhawk, social liberal - sure loser by a BIG margin IMHO
>Romney ? too slick, too white male, too flip-flopper, too LDS, too rich, too many homes, too ambitious, McCain despises him & tons of negative attack videos that can/will bite back - but an appeaser ? [Mittens by default it seems]
>Pawlenty ? Dan Quayle '08, wore a mullet until a few months ago, no more 'experienced' than Obama, no constituency except for goofy white WalMart GOPers, may have personal skeletons, too young since he makes John look even older, said nice things about Obama's campaign recently - but he has been kissing McCain's ass big-time so maybe, but a loser IMHO
>Jindal ? too young by half, no experience, no constituency, will have his hands full next week if GUSTAV hits LA - get real, no way
>Palin ? no experience, but she is a woman, but personal problems of her own in AK - not gonna happen
>Hutchinson - may not want it, but in most aspects she might be his best/only choice to shake things up
>Rice - too tied to Bush & Cheny & Rumsfeld & mushroom cloud, but a black woman that for some neo-con reason the hard-core base loves.
>Fiorina or Whitman ? only if McCain has decided to go kamikazi as either of these are lame-brained choices with no political experience or skills + lots of baggage
>Ridge ? nope, looks tired & old & pro-choice
>Portman ? nope, Bush crony & Obama/Biden are trying to merge the Bush years with McCain for the next 2 months - might as well pick Cheney
>Cantor ? hhmmm, long shot like Chet Edwards would have been for Obama so not gonna happen probably but at least outside the box
>Crist ? too much baggage & too tan & too ambitious & too ambiguous & FL voters say NO
who does that leave ? I hear Larry Craig would be available.
Colin Powell [in McCain's dreams] would be the only real WOW factor
FWIW
dcm in Florida, my thoughts exactly. so you agree that McCain has to counter Obama's wow with another wow?
Would a woman really reopen the Hillary wound or is that wound healed?
I seriously think a woman (Palin the best bet) is McCain's only chance outside of a serious Obama screwup. McCain can't win with Republicans. He needs the bitters, the PUMAs and the independents to win (and to have the media keep riding the tire swing). Palin doesn't do a thing to deliver the bitters, and I don't think there are really that many PUMAs, but I bet Palin would be a huge smash with independent women and the press.
Like DCM said, Palin is implicated in the Alaskan corruption scandal(s). McCain won't pick her. Look elsewhere. If he DOES pick her, he will have shot himself in the foot big-time.
And Hutcheson doesn't want it I bet, she wants Gov of TX and then presidency for herself later. No way she'll waste her good political capital on a losing McCain ticket. She has a huge future.
The "corruption scandals" are nothing, really... so she fired someone who wouldn't fire a trooper who should have been fired four or five times over already? Big deal. That stuff has no legs. I've said it before and I'll say it again, the only people who care about honesty in government are already Democrats.
The only real shoot-in-the-foots on DCM's list (unimpressive as it is) are Fiorina, Jindal, Pawlenty and Romney. Everyone else potentially helps McCain with a constituency that Obama is targeting...
Here is my opinion, McCain has to get either MI or CO because that is Obama's best path to victory after this covention and who helps him pick of one of those, nobody. Any other surprise state McCain can get out of Obama's basket?
oops, I missed one darkhorse VP
since we all know that John loves his military [did you know he was a POW ?]...
>Graham from SC - a confidant, ex-military, attack dog capability, the GOPers are gonna be short-handed anyway in the next Senate, I would think it might be him if McCain cannot find a qualified woman or minority or minority woman to join him [I think people are saying 'no thank you']
I personally find smarmy, nancy boy Lindsey extremely unlikable, but maybe that is what John likes about him - and he reminds me of a younger Cheney with more hair & a southern snarky accent.
still that would be 2 white wasps again in the wrong year IMHO
Graham could stand up to Biden - but what else does he bring to them table except solidify the hard-core base & deep rad southern states ?
McCain needs to hold Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, and the other traditionally Republican states. To me, it looks like he can hold OH and VA most likely. CO will be the battleground of this election.
DCM,
what does IMHO and IMO stand for? You use them all the time and I never understand what they are.
Oh and can you imagine the VP debate between Palin and Biden, that would be a blow out
In my (Humble) Opinion
I don't know Derek. Someone a couple days ago brought up that Biden probably won't risk going after a woman too hard or risk alienating the feminists who'll say he's sexist.
addressing palin, specifically, then:
1. she's currently mired in a public corruption scandal alleging that she fired a public official because he was reluctant to fire palin's brother-in-law.
2. she's certainly not pulling any states with her. (from alaska; born in idaho.)
3. she makes it much harder to make an "experience" argument against obama. she's 44, and her resume is as thin as obama's or thinner. she was elected governor of alaska, population 684,000, in december 2006, which marked the first time she had ever held any office higher than mayor of wasilla, alaska, and ethics commissioner of the alaska oil and gas conservation commission.
balance all that against: she's a governor; she's young, very attractive, and an avid outdoorswoman; solid conservative on social issues; if the corruption thing gets cleared up, had previously had a reputation as an ethics-minded whistleblower against wrongdoers in her own party.
and also, she's a woman, which is really what this boils down to if it happens.
I know it sounds crazy, but if you look deep down the list at Intrade, someone's bidding HUGE for Fred Thompson at 17-1. Hardly any has traded and none is for sale.
Talk about an all-geezer ticket! But ol' Fred has solid conservative instincts and can tell the story. And he did drop out of the primary race to benefit McCain, so maybe that got him on the short list.
DEREK
yes, I agree that John needs a big WOW or his choice will look the more of the same old same old - which is what Obama tagged McCain with tonight.
This will be a major choice for McCain to show where his judgment lies - any lobbying ties or whiff of scandal or wealth or old age or young age or pro-choice or... lol, too many bad variables to avoid.
But Hutchison is already 65 y/o I believe so her age is OK right now, but she will be probably be considered to be too old to run in 4 more years. Hey, I do not totally dislike her so she must not be a total GOPer [although I think she may be soft on pro-life/choice].
And I have not heard any scandals or temperment issues for her ?
I think Fred Thompson would actually be the best pick out of them all. Wow effect, good speaker, probably has some appeal to swing voters and definately would excite the Rep base... hmmm. Also could stazck up against Biden, to a degree
dcm - hutchison claims to be "pro-life" but also states that she supports roe v. wade and it should not be overturned. you figure it out.
DCM,
Graham, like Crist, suffers from a very serious problem that isn't an issue for Democrats, liberals, or anyone with an open mind, but is the death sign for modern Republicans. He's almost certainly . . . shall we say . . . in the closet. You can forget about him.
And anyone still talking about Palin just has no guess. Come on, folks. Yahoo/Google her and "state trooper". She's not going to be the pick.
There is no good pick here. It's an absolutely terrible "bench." And, perhaps more importantly, no one (outside of us junkies) cares.
JAMES
sorry,
IMO = In My Opinion [as opposed to hard fact]
IMHO = In MY Humble Opinion [again as opposed to fact & to clarify that I am not trying to diss anyone]
FWIW = For What It Is Worth [again, to clarify that the post above was a commentary or opinion or off point]
BTW = By The Way
DNFTT = Do Not Feed The Trolls [self-explanatory]
TROLL = [sorry, I promised not to go down there tomight on this historic memorable evening !]
I live in TX/OK and she is a pretty stand up gal. I like her OK and I think republicans could rally behind her. And don't kid yourself, McCain will be too old to run for a second term so it won't matter. McCain can't focus on picking a young upcomer to ordane as his baton carrier after he serves, he has to pick someone who can win now and Republicans hope for a better landscape next cycle. That's why we are going to see slash and burn politics
Houses,
I know you liberals love to think you're so important, but to think that all of America is biting their nails waiting for Obama's pick and care nothing at all for McCain's is exceedingly arrogant even for you.
I don't know Derek. Someone a couple days ago brought up that Biden probably won't risk going after a woman too hard or risk alienating the feminists who'll say he's sexist.
It's said that Biden is the master of the smiling punch. He could probably go after her without being mean about it. Feminists would just have to balance the woman-factor vs. the right-woman-factor. You don't want someone to get in there, suck, and set your cause back fifteen years. People didn't mind Hillary on this front because, at her very core, she's a major policy wonk, even if her elected resume is a bit thin.
Hmmm.. anyone think Fred Thompson would wake up in time to speak before November?
Thank you DCM, I knew all the other ones just from simple guessing but had long been trying to figure out those others. To tell the truth, I liked Obama's soaring rhetoric speeches better. Excuse me on this historic night, but this kind of sounded like the same old stump speech mixed with a little of the same old Obama.
DUNNO
I agree about Graham. I was trying to be diplomatic by using the 'nancy boy' tag rather than say he was a screaming queen...
but he is a friend of Charlie's.
must be the military background...
wonder if he will attend Charlie's 'wedding' in December in FL ?
but that should not stop him from being John's VP... he supports traditional family values & GOD & war
James, I agree, McCain has just been served and now he has to "prove his judgement and temperment" with his VP pick. Given that, if Biden isn't known by 51 percent of people, according to a pole right after his selection, then McCain is going to have to pick a high profile person to make a splash
Rudy,
On Intrade usually a massive bid at a low price is someone trying to cover a "short" they did earlier. This is why there was like 25,000 shares bid of Hillary nomination at 2.0-3.0 in the weeks before the convention. They wanted to free up some capital.
James-
I know you liberals love to think you're so important, but to think that all of America is biting their nails waiting for Obama's pick and care nothing at all for McCain's is exceedingly arrogant even for you.
Has McCain started playing Stadiums yet? Or is he still stuck on the arena circuit? But seriously.... Who's saying that? We've got fifty-some-odd posts speculating on just that topic.
DEREK
well Hutchinson actually sounds like a good VP choice, so that apparently rules her out !
Too bad good ol' Aarnold from Cawlifornia isn't eligable...
Well she was interviewed today by CNN and said she was worried about TX etc. I wonder if CNN knows something...
Mason,
Sorry that I said all liberals. I was wrong. I was meaning at the time only "Dunno How Many Houses" who said, "There is no good pick here...And, perhaps more importantly, no one (outside of us junkies) cares." Sorry if I included you there.
lol, sorry to be posting so much, but as you know I live in OK and TX, mostly OK. It is a political wasteland here and so this is my outlet. With that said, someone mentioned that this sounded like stump and old Obama and that it wasn't new. However, that is good because the old Obama has been MIA for a while; also he had some republicanesque ideals about the budget and gun control etc. We have the old Obama but instead of having Hillary who has little policy difference with him, he can go after his bionary oposite on a majoirty of the issues
Ohhh, relax, killer. Obama just wowed the nation. There's a potential Category Four or Category Five hurricane heading towards New Orleans, and the GOP is in fact debating postponing its convention.
At the moment, no American outside of political junkies cares about SPECULATING as to McCain's VP pick. After it's made, there will be some discussion. Sorry if that apparently ultraoffensive sentiment hits a little too close to home.
JAMES
Obama intentionally held back on the soaring tonight for strategic reasons. This speech was really more of a sermon, but an effective one none the less IMHO.
Tonight he was speaking not to the 85,000 in attendance really, he was introducing himself to the many millions of first time viewers tonight who have never seen him speak - except for sound bites & misrepresentations by others.
This speech was to put out there something for everyone to identify with on their own terms. And a hard direct challenge to Bush - I mean McCain...
It was the package tonight that was important, which is also why there were no BIG entertainment spectacles on stage until the fireworks for a dramtic ending.
It was as lowkey as it could be for a major stadium primetime event - then POW at the ending.
"this is not about me, this is about you" - classic preacher approach to bring them on into the fold as one big family
I'm reminded of the idiom, "If a tree falls in the forest.."
For a junkie like Nate, even the political equivalent of Tramadol will quell the shakes, but the general public needs nothing less than pure smack to get their attention.
Let's see what John McCain has up his sleeve for next week when he has the stage for himself.
DEREK
if McCain does pick a woman, then Hillary is the #1 not-so-secret weapon to use against the GOP VP.
If Obama uses Hill & Bill effectively as opposed to how little Gore used them in 2000 then he stands a great chance to flip several extra battleground states IMO.
Houses, McCain's pick won't mean much now or tomorrow morning, it will mean a lot in the weeks and months to come. It will be an issue in this campaign. If you don't think so then you obvioulsy didn't see Obama's numbers drop after not picking Hillary.
J, you're right, that's often the case. But can't be so in this case, as no one could have shorted remotely near that much Fred, nor would they be inclined to.
He's never been seriously mentioned as a VP candidate, as far as I'm aware. Plus, the contract settles in less than a week, so that would be an awfully big price to pay for freeing up capital.
I was excited about Fred Thompson when he first entered the race, but he slowly turned me (and just about everyone else, it seems) away. He was boring, uninspiring, and had no new ideas. I fervently hope as a Republican that he's not the VP.
No one else thinks it'll be Giuliani? I'm taking bets.
Can't be that other Rudy. Too many skeletons.
Maybe I'm being overly optimistic, but I'd like to think that Tom Ridge could be the pick. He's not showy, but he's competent and he would represent a clear break from the Bush administration. He was Colin Powell's preferred choice to be Sec of Def in Bush's first term but was decried as "peacenik" and Dick Cheney didn't like him. Of course Rumsfeld ended up being the defense secretary.
What better way to separate yourself from the Bush administration than to take as VP someone who was despised by Cheney? And what better way to juxtapose McCain's hawkishness than with a "peacenik"?
Of course the evangelicals will go mad with a pro-choice selection, but I think it's in McCain's best interests to deal with the fall-out and go for someone who will better attract independent voters.
Plus may make Pennsylvania a major thing. You know, Obama my think that is who it is going to be since they are heading to PA today... hmmm
More than the evangelicals don't like Ridge. He had a RINO voting record when he was in congress.
If McCain picked him it would be fatal.
I think the republicans understand that McCain is thier best chance for holding any sort of power and they will rally around him, with effective campaigning so it might make since to go for PA/independents
Yes, that would be the calculated risk of selecting Ridge, and would be thunbing his nose at the conservative wing after having made so much progress position-wise.
Taking Ridge would lose more votes than he'd gain, and would induce conservatives to recognize they need to start from scratch, so they'd boycott the race.
So who should he pick for his VP sir? (woulda said Rudy but didn't want to make it sound like I was talking About Mayor Rudy)
After doing all of this I can see why McCain would pick Pawlenty. Noone to wow and aw so he might as well go with the least offensive guy. Now I also see why McCain went so hard pre speech on Obama's stage setup, number one to try to diminish its importance, and a corralation of that being that he had no wow factor VP to offset a bounce. Too bad the paying attention to "little things" played right into Obama's hands.
Whoever he picks he can't be complacent. A "safe" pick like Pawlenty isn't going to do it.
His choice for VP will be much more important than Obama's. Aside from the fact that there's a greater likelihood that his VP will actually have to take over his duties sooner (either due to a 1 term presidency or due to health complications), there will be a lot of people who are still trying to figure out if McCain is still a "maverick" or a continuation of the Bush legacy.
Choosing someone like Ridge or Lieberman will probably create an "reverse bump" temporarily, just like Biden did for Obama, as the conservative base expresses their disgust. But come November, they will play "rally around the candidate" whether they want to admit it at this point or not, because they know what the alternative is.
There's one thing the Republicans cannot afford this election, and that is to allow themselves to be defined by the Bush administration. So far the label has failed to stick to McCain because people are aware of his record, but if he continues to play ultra-nice with the right-wing, he won't be able to pull through come election day.
Woo
Watch comments from Drew, Stephen Maloney.
Basically, a plane left Anchorage on Thursday to arrive at Middletown, not far from Dayton.
:)
Ridge makes sense for McCain. The South will vote for McCain no matter what. Also, GHW Bush was pro-choice in 1980, up until the point he was chosen by Saint Ron. Then Bush turned anti-choice immediately, and it didn't matter to the right wing. So Ridge being pro-choice can be made to be irrelevant.
Hutchinson or Ridge would be McCain's best choices. Forget Pawlenty-- he'll get destroyed by Biden.
The GOP convention is screwed-- Gustav is awful, and will land Monday; if the GOP celebrates in Minneapolis, then they'll look like a bunch of a-holes because of Gustav; then, Thursday night everyone will be watching the NFL opener. Kids are starting school, and parents will be exhausted-- the Republicans are screwed.
Sidenote, does anybody really think Barr/Nadar etc. are really going to pull 4.2 percent of the popular vote as indicated in the pop vote model? Maybe way to high, or mabye way too low... Comments?
Republican's are screwed, thier convention is in trouble yes, but McCain has been resiliant up to this point and has done an excellent job of getting his point through to the media, we'll see if inexperience still flies after this speach and with Biden and the Clinton's backing him up. This week was definately a game changer
are not screwed
Does anybody know of any state polls that came out yesterday?
DEREK
the Thursday polling release were slim. the best central source is always @ Pollster.com where they supply links to each:
POLL: Greg Smith Idaho (8/18-22)
POLL: Daily Tracking (8/25-27)
POLL: Hill Research Colorado (8/23-24)
POLL: PPIC California (8/12-19)
those are all that they have up for Thursday...
SARAH PALIN
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/N222GY
No earthly reason why someone charters a Gulfstream IV from Anchorage to a random airport in Ohio that's 30 mins from Dayton.
She has 5 kids, she's not traveling to just show up and smile, she's the pick.
you only got part of the evidence J. A second charter flight from Anchorage left yesterday and flew...to Flagstaff, Arizona. It then left AZ today and flew to the same random airport in Ohio.
http://flightaware.com/live/flight/N387HA/
Palin on Wednesday
Her family last night.
that second flight tracker link is dead.
According to Palin's Wikipedia page, she is "the second female vice-presidential nominee of a major party:"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarah_Palin
That edit had no citations and seems to have now been reverted.
Something tells me that wikipedia article will need protection shortly.
and the article is changed again, adding the information as speculation and citing this speculative article about the flight tracking
Feminists are not going to vote for McCain just because he picks a woman veep. That doesn't change anything about his record on women's issues.
He might pick up a few votes from women, but not from feminists.
Bob Novak is the VP?
It isn't necessarily about picking up votes, which Palin will, but about depressing enthusiasm and turnout on the other side.
People will have to vote *against* the first female VP. that depresses enthusiasm.
Also, there are certainly more women than feminists.
I have to wonder if this is a political masterstroke. Keeping Romney and Pawlenty up as a distraction and downplaying Palin so that Obama would select someone other than Clinton or Sebelius .. and then pick Palin.
Palin is also no token woman. She an executive with a lot of support from the right-wing base. She's been in contention for some time now and it isn't like anyone picked her out of a hat.
She's of a new female political type that hasn't been seen yet, but that old guard male conservatives are completely comfortable working with and for [see the gender balance on the republican platform committee]
As Jen said above - he'll bore the crap out of the country. Exactly the sentiment of my wife last night as we were watching Obama. She said that she just couldn't take 45 minutes of listening to McCain and watching that insipid grin of his.
Only question is, who will bore America faster?, McCain or his lapdog Lieberman
the other thing about a Palin pick is that since she's not been a "front runner" she's essentially a blank slate to most people.
now the republicans will have an entire convention to fill in the blanks in pretty much any way they want.
"It isn't necessarily about picking up votes, which Palin will, but about depressing enthusiasm and turnout on the other side."
"People will have to vote *against* the first female VP. that depresses enthusiasm."
She will not depress enthusiasm for Obama. You are kidding yourself. Republicans might like her, but people don't vote for veep. They vote for the nominee.
If McCain thinks an anti-choice woman who few people have ever heard of is going to get Hillary's voters, he is more out of touch than I thought.
Local Twin Cities media is reporting pretty heavily that Pawlenty will be at the Minnesota State Fair today. For what it's worth.
It's Palin, huge jump in Intrade prices just now...these Republicans are desperate!
Doesn't Palin come with some scandal baggage? Not that it matters, he could choose the ghost of Reagan and still suffer the EV landslide.
"She will not depress enthusiasm for Obama. You are kidding yourself. Republicans might like her, but people don't vote for veep. They vote for the nominee."
Not picking Hillary as VP depressed Obama's numbers.
I think the VP selection is clearly moving the national opinion. Whether it is temporary or not is another issue, but it clearly has an impact and in the case of not picking Clinton, the effect was a negative drop.
Unless the polls don't mean anything ..
"Republicans are desperate!"
She has been in contention since july, at least, just like everyone else. I'm not sure how it can be argued that she's a desperation selection. That's the genius of how this has all been orchestrated.
"People will have to vote *against* the first female VP. that depresses enthusiasm."
No they won't. That ground was already broken by Geraldine Ferraro way back in 1984.
I'm aware of that, but since she never became VP, it will still be voting against the first one.
Ferraro complicates things even further because a democratic line could be "Good to see the Republicans catching up with us, 24 years later" .. but Ferraro herself was Obama's most prominent critic on feminist grounds.
Palin is still in Alaska.
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalradar/2008/08/mccain-vp-conte.html
Would take her quite a while to get to Ohio from there, right? No time before the big rally this morning?
Scratch her off the list? More intrade chaos to follow? (Sorta funny to watch the numbers go up and down.) Anyone else feeling Joe-mentum in the air??
So just where is Lieberman this morning? Kay Bailey?
Happy 72nd Birthday, McCain. Another year of the same.
"Scratch her off the list?"
boy, i had really convinced myself there...
i think if it anyone else, it would be a mistake.
Lieberman?, Puajjjjjjj
I can't believe that somebody with a Down's Syndrome baby would also campaign for Veep. The baby's what, three months old? Down's Syndrome children take a *lot* of care.
I'm sure that someone of her prominence would have a strong support network to help her take care of the child during the campaign.
"...Sen. Joe Lieberman, I-Conn, the only presumed contender who is actually in the Buckeye State at this hour." ABC News online
Please let it be Lieberman.
Down's Syndrome babies tend to have very poor immune systems. You don't want to fly the kid all over the place.
She could, of course, just dump a 3 month old baby off on a nurse in Alaska and show up every few weeks to make sure he's still alive. Very nuturing, I'm sure.
On another note...Rasmussen has a minimal bounce so far, basically that horrible Monday just dropping off. We'll see if it improves tomorrow.
"I'm sure that someone of her prominence would have a strong support network to help her take care of the child during the campaign."
Do you have any idea how that would play with the evangelical base? Or a lot of the rest of the base? Many, many would be critical of her having any job with a young infant and other children still at home.
My republican neighbor with 2 toddlers got all tense and scowl-ly when I accidentally said "day care" to her when I meant the church's mother's day out program.
"Do you have any idea how that would play with the evangelical base?"
Yes.
Many in the evangelical base have large families, like Palin. Grandmothers, aunts and uncles pitching in the take care of children is pretty common... and the kid does also have a father after all.
I'm not talking about "day-care" when I say "support network'
I know you are not talking about day care, but she would be gone a lot.
To the groups I am referring to, support from friends and family is wonderful but they aren't big on mom's working. period
But it doesn't matter. It's very unlikely she is the pick since she is not in Ohio.
Do you guys even think about what you are posting before you click the button?
Do you honestly believe that John McCain offers Sarah Palin to be Vice President of the United States and she turns him down...
BECAUSE SHE CAN'T FIND A SITTER?
So McCain's rally is at
"Wright State University's Nutter Center"
LOL. Why not just have it at the local asylum?
Personally, I would like to see McCain pick Colin Powell. I think this would be an excellent choice. Moreover, Powell is an independent thinker. Although I am pretty sure he feels ticked off being lied to by the Bush Administration, and in particular all of the false intelligence reports he was given leading to the war in Iraq.
Although I am a Republican, I am on on the sidelines right now. I am not sure whom to support at the moment. I saw the speech by Obama, and thought it was pretty damn good.
Anyway, I hope McCain picks Colin Powell. I think this would be his best choice.
"Sen. John McCain picks Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate on GOP ticket for White House, CNN learns."
DarienCrow said...
Do you guys even think about what you are posting before you click the button?
Do you honestly believe that John McCain offers Sarah Palin to be Vice President of the United States and she turns him down...
BECAUSE SHE CAN'T FIND A SITTER?
This is a child who has immune deficiencies, and is likely to go blind or deaf or both due to the illnesses. Even Death sometimes occurs.
What's she supposed to do? Dump the kid on a sitter for three months? Shake hands with a few thousand people and if she gets sick and passes the illness to her child, what the hell, she can always have another kid?
Once the kid is 3 or 4 years old, Palin could get away with it. Right now, the kid is nursing, and formula isn't a good choice for a kid with immune deficiencies. Both the child and the person doing the nursing should avoid contact with other people as much as they're able. So dump on a wet nurse and go jet-setting, or stay with the kid as much as you can, and don't go campaigning.
Seems like an easy choice to me.
Palin! Thanks for the gift to the Democratic Party, McCain!!
And happy 72nd birthday, McSame. You will look great standing next to a 44 year old younger than some of your kids.
Of course, this isn't the first time you've dumped someone for a younger woman.
I can't wait for the debates with Biden.
PALIN!!!! Is a genius pick. I'm bouncing off the walls with this pick.
Obama and the Ds scored a 9 in Denver. Their convention went about as well as could be hoped.
Palin negates this bounce.
Come on Obama people - her time as mayor equals Obama's state senate experience, her time a governor equals his Senate experience. Bring on the experience debate ... please!
hmm interesting pick. But Sarah Palin a heartbeat away from the presidency? Esp with mcCain at 72yr old w/ history of cancer? Boy .. I wonder if this will become part of the debate.
At least its not a boring pick though .. I want to see the female reaction.
So, it will be Sarah Palin. I thought she'd fallen off the radar entirely.
The VP debate should be interesting. Whereas Obama, in picking Biden, chose someone whom he could not *present* to the public, someone whose mainstream image is not malleable, McCain's choice of Palin allows that ticket to mold the veep in the public consciousness, to trot her out and introduce her in any way the campaign sees fit. That could be a definite advantage.
In the spirit of objectivity, I have to say I think it's a good pick. I don't think it's devastating to the Democrats; I don't think McCain is going to be able to bang his hand down on his desk and scream "HA! BEAT THAT!" but I think it's a better pick than Romney, Ridge, Pawlenty, Lieberman, or Huckabee, mostly due to its sheer unorthodoxy.
The other thing to watch will be how the two play off of each other. The combination of a short, stocky, pasty old man and a, well, a MILF with a predilection for wearing Tina Fey's eyeglasses, could come off looking either really awkward or like a good visual depiction of the GOP torch-passing.
Intrade is very confident (97.6% right this moment) that Palin is the pick. Bad news for Obama. A charismatic woman will pull away PUMA-types in a big way, and her popularity in Alaska will definitely pull it out of the "swing state" list.
The only thing is Palin's currently got a minor scandal going on where Palin tried to get her brother-in-law fired from his job as a state trooper, and ended up dumping the state Public Safety Commissioner because he wouldn't fire the brother-in-law. Obama better hope this scandal has some legs...
Otherwise, I think we just found out the name of the first woman President, and her initials ain't HRC.
if it is Palin...well, first things that come to mind
1)Forget Obama using Palin's lack of experience against her - that's not important - it means that McCain weakens dramatically the use of inexperience against Obama.
2)Some women will now be more likely to vote for McCain/Palin.
3)Some men will now be more likely to vote for Obama/Biden.
4)It reinforces McCains Maverick (TM) image, which is nonsense but widely believed it seems.
Overall? Decent choice, it's a gamble but McCain needs to gamble or he's toast. However, she hasn't been vetted much at all, has a scandal already hanging over her head and the images of her next to McCain will be...interesting.
If it fails, expect McCain to get absolutely smashed now, a swing of even a couple of percent against him could cause him major problems.
Alaska no longer a swing state? darn .. back to the drawing board for thedems :)
eve wrote:
She will not depress enthusiasm for Obama. You are kidding yourself. Republicans might like her, but people don't vote for veep. They vote for the nominee.
I agree. She's a Republican Ferraro.
And with McCain's age such an issue, Republicans will really have to ask themselves if they are comfortable with a woman commander-in-chief, especially one with so little experience. Women, too, will have to ask themselves if Palin is really the woman they would want as the first woman President in case McCain dies in office. I think they will conclude she would set a poor precedent.
McCain has squeezed everything he can get out of the "PUMA issue"; there's nothing more left in that well after the convention. Hillary's endorsement of Obama will carry far more weight with women than Palin would.
She might be the best choice of a bad lot, but don't over-sell her. There's no gold there for McCain.
charles wrote:
Local Twin Cities media is reporting pretty heavily that Pawlenty will be at the Minnesota State Fair today. For what it's worth.
Yeah, and I'll be there, too. For what it's worth.
Most Minnesota politicians go to the MN State Fair. Don't read too much into it.
Talking heads ...blah blah ... insiders spewing off talking points blah blah .... America will decide if they like Palin and my bet is she's going to be liked.
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