by Nate Poblano-Halperin
Five Reasons to Expect a Large Bump:
1. Obama has twice the usual number of swing voters to reach out to: independents and PUMAs.
2. Enormous amounts of star power in the lineup -- including, of course, Obama himself.
3. Interest -- and ratings -- will be high.
4. McCain comeback story is getting old; media pendulum may be swinging at right time.
5. Hillary's reputation is on the line, and she will rise to the top of her game.
Five Reasons to Expect No Bump, or a Small One:
1. Even small PUMA eruptions will be magnified by the media.
2. Expectations for Obama's speechmaking powers will be exceptionally high.
3. The VP bounce is often part of the convention bounce, but Biden hasn't moved the numbers much so far.
4. McCain team can quickly stomp on any bounce with response ads and veep speculation.
5. Bill's ego is on the line, and he will not be at the top of his game.
8.25.2008
Should Obama Expect a Big Convention Bounce?
@ 3:42 PM
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273 comments
You should have compassion for anyone who has to live with the last name "Boehner".
Still have no vision in one eye!! Lets hope Senator BOXER doesn't speak!
That's low, sedi. I don't flip.
It's more fun to slice carefully. Good knife work makes for a better dish, no?
What, no-one's excited that Nancy "Black Hole of Charisma" Pelosi spoke?
Still blind in one eye. Hope Se. BOXER doesn't speak.
Her father, the Mayor of Baltimore, had big time mob connections. Look up Tommy D'alessandro.
All this crap about a "working class Italian family". Your father was Tony Soprano, Nancy!
Don't worry, JB.
If you go blind, you can take sick leave for a little while.
Peanut farmer just gave his advice to the Clinton's. Shut the Fu k up and support Odumbo or else.
You guys aren't very good at giving this the MST3K treatment.
And somehow, I think Pelosi achieved her power before becoming the postergirl for Plastic Surgery Monthly. That her face will exist long after the world crumbles to dust is beside the point, isn't it?
Anyone watching in High Def? Is it even scarier then when you see Nancy?
Give em hell Bill and Hillary! Show em what it's like to get a knife in the back-Carter and Kennedy.
Mason,
Sorry, I did not mean to suggest that you did. But you and Mule had a pretty intense back and forth, and I wanted to convey that I'm not particularly interested in engaging with MidPointMan in that fashion. Unlike in real life, I can just ignore loud-mouthed bullies here. So please accept my apologies if I implied that you flip out. That was definitely not my intention.
Just please, no Senator Boxer, my eyesight is coming back!
I cant believe how lifeless, and boring nancy pelosie was.
Then you have to think..that's how all lib's sound. she hardly got anyone to clap too, I thought that was really funny...what a sorry speaker of the house she is.....cant believe she's going ot get elected again.
I think the "star power" will eventually hurt the candidate, whether the stars be politicians or actors. I try to remain an open-minded independent, but any time I see polls showing that Europe and Hollywood overwhelmingly support Obama, I immediately know that I'll be voting for the other guy, even if I did live in a vacuum and knew nothing about the individuals.
Just saw a segment on MSNBC with Matthews, Olbermann, and Bill Maher, where Maher called the majority of Americans stupid for voting the way they have in the recent past and mocked anyone of the Mormon faith, which many Americans of any faith will take exception to. Though I am not offended in the least, I respect Maher's opinion, and all I can do is thank him, because guys like him will continue getting my guys elected and he'll get to mock Americans like me on HBO.
FYI:
Here is something you really should be scared about.
McCain chooses Meg Whitman as VP.
She started ebay, a company that gave 1.5 million Americans their own business. She is smart as heck and is a great speaker. She understands the economy and job creation better than anyone in the Congress.
You can't attack her because she did not vote for Iraq, she did not run up the deficit and is a Washington outsider.
She IS change.
The Hillary voters will flee for good, McCain will have an economic message and be making history with the first elected female VP.
White women will decide this election.
If he does that, the Democrats lose for sure.
That is what you should be scared of...
Bill Maher is great at driving people into the arms of Republicans by essentially insulting 95% of Americans. I love Bill Maher! Thanks Bill, keep it up! Tell us what a bunch of ignorant dumbasses we are again and how we should be more French! That'll help in Ohio and Michigan.
Sedi-
No apology necessary. That's what I figured you meant. MR and I usually have a give-and-take whenever I call him out for dumping for no good reason on the post's author. While I think he'll be ignoring me now, I don't think he listened anyway.
Rachel Maddow talking now on MSNBC. Eyesight now coming back, two good looking babes on MSNBC. For awhile Jack Black was going to need a black patch!
Hey Nate,
Do you think the post convention bounce could be attenuated by the closeness of the Republican convention on the heels of the Dems. Could you analyze bounces by interval between party conventions?
Thanks,
Jon
was just watching O'Reilly (I do it to hear how desperate the GOP can get) and was amazed how Juan Williams was just ripping into Michelle Obama. He said he doesn't need to watch her speak tonight, he knows she's an angry woman. O'Reilly said he wants to watch her, and disagreed with him. I couldn't believe it.
Meg Whitman? The former eBay CEO? You really think that people would vote for an old man and someone who has never held any political office at all? Stranger things have happened.
Joe Biden has good taste in one thing--women. His wife is really attractive. Why can't she speak tonight instead of Nancy Botox?
Joe Biden now on CNN-bleached teeth. anybody on the Dem. side not had surgery or dental work.
"Joe Biden has good taste in one thing--women. His wife is really attractive."
VA Con, you must have missed Biden's speech on Saturday. She's not just really attractive, she's "drop-dead gorgeous!" Just ask Joe. Of course, she does have a Ph.D....
Sedi, that's probably the only thing I agree with Joe Biden on.
Honestly Michelle Obama isn't bad, either, she just needs to cut down on the bitterness and lighten up.
JB-
Does Nixon-Kennedy ring a bell? People who listened liked Nixon. People who watched liked Kennedy.
McCain never put Whitman in the ticket.
Darío said...
MidPointMan, Jonh McCain have never worked in the private sector and he said that he doesn´t understand nothing of economics.
Dario -
I agree. That is why he will choose Romney, Meg Whitman or Carly Fiorina.
They actually have run businesses.
I am not praising John McCain, people.
I am just telling you what the GOP will say.
Too many forget that you have to convince the median voter, not everyone else who thinks like you do.
I personally think Bush is a disaster. That does not make me a Socialist or even a Liberal.
The DNC and the Obama campaign are equating Bush being incompetent with everyone wanting more government.
They are mad at Bush because of dysfunctional government, not the desire for more of it.
That is why preaching accountability in government and a balanced budget will win the election.
Just a dose of reality.
I agree. That is why he will choose Romney, Meg Whitman or Carly Fiorina.
They actually have run businesses.
...
Too many forget that you have to convince the median voter, not everyone else who thinks like you do.
Government is not a business. The median voter recognizes this difference as they do not routinely elect CEOs to the presidency.
"Honestly Michelle Obama isn't bad, either, she just needs to cut down on the bitterness and lighten up."
Yeah, she's way too bitter. That's probably why she clings to guns and religion and antipathy to people who aren't like her.
Sedi -
I never engaged on any ad hominem attack on anyone.
Show me an instance, other than in response to yours on me. I proved strong counterpoint. Provide your own...
Instead you resort to name-calling.
Spare me with your "holier-than-thou" histrionics.
You are just distracting the debate away from the issues because you cannot take anyone with a counterpoint.
You sit their with your smug self-righteousness, it is laughable.
You fired the first shot. How about ending it.
I see more hateful drivel from Obamabots on these blogs, his campaign should be ashamed to have such representatives..
As someone who votes for both parties, it detracts from his message to see his supporters engaged in such hate speech (not you, but others).
Having a father who is a Democrat and mother who is a Republican and seeing them both vote for the other party gives me a broader viewpoint.
You can simply choose to ignore my posts if it really hurts your feelings so badly.
Mason -
I think people get better customer service at for-profit businesses than at any government agency.
They wish it was a business, so they could take their business elsewhere.
Maybe you have never been to the Post Office or the DMV or tried to get a building permit, but if you have, you know what I mean.
Americans are historically cynical about government.
McDonald's has better customer service, and most often they hardly speak English (not that it bothers me, I speak Spanish anyway).
One thing that is true, is that local government runs much better than Federal Government. That is why the RNC message about leaving more governing to the local communities is attactive.
Nah, liberals cling to their French wine and arugula and antipathy towards people from flyover country,
Mason -
Do you really, in your wildest dreams, thing that the average person has a high regard for lawyers and career politicians?
If you believe that, good luck.
I respectfully disagree.
Ross Perot would have won in 1992 if he were not so flaky and erratic.
People would want nothing better than to fire a career politician in favor of a successful career woman.
Especially those angry Hillary voters.
Seriously, Midpointman's been pretty damn decent from what I've read. Perhaps the WAY he states things (matter-of-fact) is what rubs the wrong way. I think it's clear that he's not aggressively hostile.
Hmm. Wonder how many of these one-liners will show up in Dem Ads. "McCain looks to wall street, Barak looks to Main street" should play well to the low-info voter.
MidPointMan, you´re right.
I´m not a liberal but so think the best canidate is Bob Barr.
McCain is a rat who had urinate the conservatives many times.
Ok, I may go back on the no booze promise. The tribute to the Senator from Chappaquiddick is testing my patience.
Sorry, i want to said the best candidate.
Dario -
Why do you say that...he mentioned her at Saddleback as one of 2 people whose advice he admires.
I think that is a pretty good hint, because it will not be David Petraeus, the other person he mentioned.
The right wing blogosphere is buzzing about it.
I do think Romney still is the more likely pick.
Romney could be an effective attack dog.
But I can tell you this, if he does pick Whitman, and Biden goes after her hard in the debates 2 things will happen.
1. He will likely lose on anything other than Foreign Policy, and is record on that is not so bulletproof
2. He will alienate millions of women voters in one fell swoop. Biden has the tendency to come off as narcissistic and long-winded. If he digs into her, you will hear 2 million women collectively utter, "What a jerk!"
That would prove an enticing trap. Biden's ego will not allow him to hold back. He is the hired attack dog (and I do not have problem with his ego, it can be an asset). Women will have a problem with his ego.
A Whitman pick would be hailed by the media as a radical move. It detracts from the radical nature of an African-American President.
The biggest reason she might not be chosen is that she will be less of an attack dog. She also ran fundraising for Romney and so she might not want to take his place, if it comes to that.
...all speculation. I think it would prove a challenging thing for Obama to respond to.
I love it when you bring up the idea that a presidential candidate's outspoken wife might be militant and/or angry and it's called trolling and off topic....but then those people turn around and talk about John McCain and the stupid 7 houses story that nobody cared about.
Double standard
clap clap clapclapclap
double standard
clap clap clapclapclap
Midpointman, are you simply stupid, or just a propagandist? Cindy McCain's father was a CROOK, not a hero.
From Wikipedia:
In 1948, Hensley and his borther were prosecuted by the federal government and convicted of falsifying liquor records to conceal illegal distribution of whiskey against post-war rationing regulations. Jim Hensley received a six-month suspended sentence while his brother received a year in federal prison. In 1953, Jim Hensley and Marley were charged by federal prosecutors with falsifying liquor records. Defended by future Supreme Court Justice William Rehnquist, they were acquitted.
In December 1952,[5] the Hensley brothers bought into the Ruidoso Downs racetrack in New Mexico, with Eugene running it and Jim returning to Phoenix.[4] In a May 1953 hearing before the New Mexico State Racing Commission, the Hensley brothers concealed the existence an equal partner, Clarence "Teak" Baldwin, who had been banned from any ownership role due to illegal bookmaking activities.[12] A 1953 New Mexico State Police investigation found further that Kemper Marley was a financial backer for bookmakers and had connections with Baldwin and with the bookmaking operations of organized crime,[12] a conclusion echoed decades later by the Arizona Project investigative reporting team.[13] The Hensley brothers gained their Ruidoso Downs racetrack license in 1953, as no New Mexico law barred convicted felons from race track ownership,[14] although in 1955 new Governor of New Mexico John F. Simms would say he was "appalled" by the previous administration's decision to do so.[14] Previous Governor Edwin L. Mechem had defended the approval, saying that the Hensleys had been under constant surveillance and deserved continued attention, but that no action was taken against them because the investigation showed that as race tracks go, all laws apparently were being observed.[15] Jim Hensley would sell his interest in Ruidoso Downs to his brother Eugene in 1955.
Ok... MPM.
I'm not saying that people don't dislike lawyers and politicians. I'm just saying they don't care. Point to the last person from Corporate-land elected POTUS or VPOTUS. You're the one making the claim that voters are anti-government and will elect a CEO because they're not a lawyer or a career politician.
You've got to come up with something better than "Government is the problem", because even if the median voter thinks that is the case, they haven't ever done a damn thing about it. You're the one making claims that you can't back up without some vacuous hand-waving about anti-government sentiment. Stop that. I grant that you may be right on the proposition ("People hate politicians."), but I think that the conclusion you're drawing is nuts because it has never happened before.
MidPointMan, honestly i don´t see Romney very well with Biden in the debates.
Biden is a pretty good foil for Romney, in all honesty.
And MPM-
Perot got about 19% of the vote in 1992. That's great for a third-party candidate, but he finished in 3rd in every state but Utah.
Let me state for the record, I mean to offend no one.
I know this blog leans left. It just so happens for that reason I tend to come off as a right winger, I am not anything close to that.
If anything, I am for less Federal Government, more local government. He the streets have potholes, people bang on the Mayor's door. It gets fixed.
You go to Washington, whose door do you knock on? No accountability. That is my problem. When politicians fail to pass decent energy policy they blame big oil, or environmentalists. Both parties do it.
I can tell you that the biggest problem is not that taxes are too low for anyone. The problem is that America gets a very bad return on investment on the taxes we already pay, regardless of who is in power.
I might be willing to go with higher taxes if somebody would prove that we are getting good value for our money, I have yet to see that.
I also will tell you that I am as middle class as they come. I have 3 kids and a stay at home wife and I am lucky if at the end of the month to put away $100 in the college fund. I got a variable rate mortgage and it is no joy, but I manage.
But I also know that for me to get a mortgage, the money comes from somewhere, and it is not the credit-card crazed middle class.
The reason you could not get a mortgage in the 1970s is because capital gains taxes were so high that rich people just hid their money in jewelry and phony corporations. Interest rates were 15%. I have no desire to see that. If you think getting a mortgage is tough now, think about what 15% rates would do.
That said, I also know that the only way businesses get started is when people get a loan to start one.
Those loans usually come from rich people. That is just the plain truth.
People get rich in this country by saving and investing, and those who fail to do that have no excuse to blame anyone. It angers me that those with huge credit card debts and leased $40,000 cars are the same people who do not understand why other people get rich and they do not. Try saving in a mutual fund, people!
I will also tell you that most people getting foreclosed on met that fate as a result of their own failings, not anyone else. There are always shady characters out there, but people got ahead of themselves, and why should the rest of us hard-working people suffer for that.
Those same "predatory lenders" 5 years ago were getting sued for not providing loans to low-income borrowers.
They started doing that. Now we have a housing bubble and foreclosures.
You get what you ask for...and it is not all bad.
99% of people have kept up with their mortgages and a lot of those are those same minorities.
It is too easy to blame it all on Bush. That is fine, Bush is a dope. But that is no reason for people to not look in the mirror and say "What could I do better?"
I disagree that politicians should go around finding false villains for someone to blame for their problems. If we all did what we know we should do, all of us would be better off.
You will not see a politician of any stripe tell the truth like that, it is unfortunate.
Perot was a flake, though.
He dropped out and then got back in.
In August it was a 3-way tie. If he had stayed in and chosen a decent VP candidate, he could have won.
Perot was always a little flaky, but my point is that people are aching to elect someone who is not a politician.
The best people never do it because of the scrutiny.
Let's face it, to go through what these people go through, you simply have to be crazy.
Dario -
Romney will do ok with Biden. I see it as a draw.
Romney is a plastic man...a Ken doll. He is the quintessential Presidential figure, he will do fine. He is almost to perfect to like. His hair is unreal.
Biden will do well too. They are both egoists.
Who cares about all that crap. Lurch was just on MSNBC with his strange wife telling everybody why he lost in 2004 and why Odumbo can't loose in 2008.
God, he's one ugly due. Makes you think a fish flew up and hit him in the face when he was driving boats in Vietnam.
Midpointman -
As a fellow conservative, I sympathize with most of your comments, but Sedi has no bone to pick. Although she struggles with the concept of VA voting RED since
1964, Sedi is all good. She plays fair. She is my favorite liberal on the board. You can chill out with the knowledge of Obama
peaking this week. That alone should keep things light and happy.
You go to Washington, whose door do you knock on? No accountability. That is my problem. When politicians fail to pass decent energy policy they blame big oil, or environmentalists. Both parties do it.
Well, your congressperson and senators, to start with. You can also file comments with the relevant agencies whenever they create regulation. The Federal Register makes a great sleep-aid. You can give money to lobbying firm to advocate in your interest.
I don't mean to be an ass about it, but if that you don't know that, is your fault, not the government's.
This is rich an east coast liberal Dodd talking about another east coast liberal Kennedy and his sail boat. that ought to tug at the heartstrings of middle America.
Karl rove on Fox. He's a cool dude. Get em Karl!! Rove telling what Michelle ODUMBO should say in her speech. I'm not a black radical, I'm not a black radical, I'm not a black radical.
Sedi is a woman. Send a picture Sedi, let us see what you got!
Perot was a flake, though.
He dropped out and then got back in.
In August it was a 3-way tie. If he had stayed in and chosen a decent VP candidate, he could have won.
Perot was always a little flaky, but my point is that people are aching to elect someone who is not a politician.
You have nothing to base this on. A tie in August? That means squat. He got his heiney handed to him in the debates, and people deserted him in droves
The best people never do it because of the scrutiny.
Let's face it, to go through what these people go through, you simply have to be crazy.
Right... And if you've been screwing people over within and slightly outside the law to make money for the shareholders (which is all well and good in the corporate world), you'd never stand up to negative campaigning.
Romney has the same problem John Edwards has. Hes too "pretty", people don't like that.
Putting a very wealthy former Governor who is also the son of a Governor against an Irish Catholic guy from Scranton who is one of the least wealthy members of the Senate, well...that's just handing the Dems a narrative that's not good for us.
I'm beginning to see the wisdom in a Huckabee pick. Hes from a working class background, and incredibly friendly and disarming. Its impossible to really be MAD at him. He is Biden's foil. He'd become Biden's best buddy by the end of the debate, while simultaneously wiping the floor with him.
Dario -
I am probably more libertarian. I believe that the negative income tax is the best thing for redistributing wealth.
We all know that you have to do a little re-distribution, I have no problem with that.
Why we do it with all these crazy programs and tax credits defies logic.
Give people a check, let them do with it what they will.
The negative income tax protects people from starving or going homeless, but it preserves the incentive to work more and earn more. It is quite progressive and gets rid of all these crazy loopholes.
The current income tax structure makes it better to earn $20,000 than $30,000 in most states. You are eligible for all kinds of programs at $20k and nothing at $30K. The value of those programs far exceeds $10,000. Subsidized housing, free health care, food stamps, it goes on. You get a job offer for $30k, you have to move out of your subsidized housing and start buying your own food and you lose your health insurance most likely. It is just crazy.
It is just crazy...it gives too many incentives to not move up in the world. It is a trap.
It is a lot better than it used to be, but a negative income tax fixes all of that and is so simple.
So many poor people miss out on benefits because you have to fill out forms and go to some office for some bureaucrat to mistreat you and probably lose your paperwork.
I was that guy when my wife got laid off and I was in grad school.
No fun...
Huckabee is just like Bill Clinton. He could insult your mom and you would think he was a funny guy.
What is it about Arkansas? Huckabee has a few odd views, but when he seems so nice, you hardly care.
Exactly. Biden is a hatchet man.
The Republicans need a "disarmer" like Huckabee.
The traitor of the Republican Party now speaking. Can anybody say Benedict Arnold and Jim LEACH in the same vein. Where is this traitor from? Of course CNN runs him live, nobody else.
Yes, libertarianism is a good option for stop the GOP-Dems statism MidPointMan.
Go Barr.
nora Odonnell is hot on MSNBC. Of Course they are dissing McCain, her and the Lesbo, Rachel MADDOW-just had a break down about McCain saying he was a POW. Wa, Wa, WA,-Yes, Maddow, ODUMBO is an elitist, millionaire Muslim, who hates America.
Three on one against Buchanan, but he is holding his own!! Get him Pat. God, can MSNBC be in the tank anymore for Odumbo than it is already.
Pat Buchanan may be a loon on immigration and foreign policy, but hes a hell of a smart guy when it comes to political strategy (as long as said strategy doesn't involve Jews or Mexicans).
I thought this was the change election and not the hope election. Wasn't that Jesse Jackson.
Will Barack allow us to have kids in his world? Sounds like Barack is the ONE.
Wow, she God Blessed America, so she loves America for the second time-Now, if we can just count up the number of times that she God Damned America.
O God, singing isn't she wonderful. Is she the one as well?
To those that deride Pelosi's looks, THANK GOD we can't see you MORONS behind the blog wall. Its laughable that people who hide behind their laptops would criticize someone for actually going out into public rather than staying home to blog about others. Again thank you for keeping your faces anonymous!
To those that deride Pelosi's looks, THANK GOD we can't see you MORONS behind the blog wall. Its laughable that people who hide behind their laptops would criticize someone for actually going out into public rather than staying home to blog about others. Again thank you for keeping your faces anonymous!
Wow! Did anyone hear that McSame is was a POW? He must be immune from any questions about, well anything now. All he has to do is bring up that he was a POW and, "POOF!" the attack is obliterated. That's a handy thing McSame has going for him.
You're both idiots. Stop talking.
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^^ nice blog!! ^@^
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^^ very nice
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