8.17.2008

Pastor Warren Contradicts Self on 'Cone of Silence'

Note: Second Update below contains video of Warren's appearance today on CNN. [9:19 PM CDT]

In yesterday's Saddleback Forum, pastor Rick Warren on two occasions referred to John McCain's "cone of silence", implying strongly that he had not been able to hear the questions posed to Barack Obama ahead of time -- questions which were, in many cases, identical to the ones posed to McCain.

This was Pastor Warren during Barack Obama's segment last night. Apologies for the capitalization -- it is in the original transcript -- but emphasis is mine:

NOW WHAT I'VE DECIDED IS TO ALLOW FOR PROPER COMPARISON I'M GOING TO ASK IDENTICAL QUESTIONS TO EACH OF THESE CANDIDATES SO YOU CAN COMPARE APPLES TO APPLES. NOW SENATOR OBAMA IS GOING TO GO FIRST. WE FLIPPED A COIN. AND WE HAVE SAFELY PLACED SENATOR MCCAIN IN A CONE OF SILENCE. EACH OF THE INTERVIEWS WILL BE SEGMENTED INTO FOUR DIFFERENT SECTIONS WE'RE GOING TO LOOK AT A FOUR DIFFERENT THINGS AND THE NUMBER OF QUESTIONS ANSWERED IN EACH SEGMENT WILL DEPEND ON HOW SUCCINCT THE SENATOR IS.
Warren again referred to the "cone of silence" at the very beginning of McCain's segment. McCain's response is obviously a joke, and a pretty funny one at that, but the important part is that Warren is implying that the cone of silence is an actual, physical place:
Q. WELCOME BACK TO THE SADDLEBACK CIVIL FORUM ON THE PRESIDENCY AND WELCOME SENATOR JOHN MCCAIN. NOW MY FIRST QUESTION WAS THE CONE OF SILENCE COMFORTABLE THAT YOU WERE IN JUST NOW?

A. I WAS TRYING TO HEAR THROUGH THE WALL.
However, Warren was just interviewed by CNN's Rick Sanchez, and apparently told him that McCain was not in the church during the first half-hour of Obama's segment. (I did not see the segment myself, nor does a transcript or video yet seem to be available). Sanchez has now suggested that Warren implied to him that he (Warren) thought McCain was in the "cone of silence" when he told the audience as much, but later learned that McCain was not.

This is highly despicable behavior, folks, on the part of McCain, Warren or possibly both. There's simply no way around it.

UPDATE: Let me be more clear about what I am suggesting. I am not suggesting that Warren conspired in some way with McCain. In fact, I thought his questions last night were exceptionally fair -- how couldn't they be, since both candidates were asked the same questions?

However, based on Warren's accounting of the proceedings, what we know is as follows:

1. Warren assumed that, at the time he began to interview Senator Obama, that Senator McCain had been placed into a 'cone of silence'. Warren probably had no way to verify McCain's whereabouts immediately before taking stage; he was, according to pictures posted at the Saddleback website, speaking with Sen. Obama in the green room.

2. However, Senator McCain was in fact not at the church or in any other quarantined location at the time he began to interview Obama; instead, he was in his motorcade on the way to the site for approximately the first half-hour of the proceedings.

3. Warren says he asked McCain whether he had heard any of the questions, and McCain said that he had not; Warren "trust[s] the integrity" of McCain's answer.

If McCain was in the motorcade, then there would be absolutely nothing, other than his honor, that would prevent him from hearing Obama's questions. However, it is probably impossible to verify whether McCain had in fact heard any of the questions. The only people who could say for sure were the people in the motorcade with John McCain.

What we can possibly verify is whether the McCain people had violated an implied or expressed promise to have arrived at the venue by the time that Barack Obama's interview began. Warren implied to a national audience that McCain was in a quarantined area at the time Obama's interview began, but in fact McCain was not.

Warren is on Larry King's show tomorrow night; the questions that King should ask him are things like:

1) What were the rules of the game were intended to be ahead of time, particularly as it reflects the 'cone of silence'?

2) Did he specifically request that the McCain people have their candidate show up to the event by at least the time of Barack Obama's interview?

3) When did he learn that McCain had not in fact been placed into the 'cone of silence'?

Whether Warren actually believes that McCain heard the questions or not is immaterial. Warren, evidently, considers both McCain and Obama to be friends, and he takes them at their word.

But the point is, there were supposed to be controls in place that prevented this situation from arising -- a situation where McCain was in a position to cheat without any consequence for having done so. Those controls broke down. We need to learn more about what those controls were, and why they broke down.

UPDATE: Here's the video.


259 comments

Heraclitus said...

I wouldn't worry too much about it. If McCain did have a chance to hear Obama's questions first, it probably made him more likely to attack and posture instead of having a genuine conversation. And that's the impression that most people got from this - Obama was having an authentic conversation, McCain was giving a version of his stump speech.

Simon said...

This is a joke right?

Alex S. said...

That event seems to be treated like an actual presidential debate now. And if that story is true, the Saddleback event could be a victim of its own success, because it couldn´t enforce its own rules

But, this appears a bit funny, doesn´t it? McCain in a room called "cone of silence", sneaking out and getting a little TV to watch Obama´s questions.

VegnaBlitz said...

That would certainly explain the quickness of some of his replies. Like someone in another comment thread here posted, it sounded like he started answering before the question was finished!

I certainly hope we get more details and confirmation on this...And that it hits the MSM. Who would have guessed that McCain was cheating? (Err, on the viewers.)

John Nail said...

It was clear McCain knew what was coming, he is not that smooth on his feet.

I doubt Warren was lying but if McCain was watching or on the phone or email w/ staff prepping it sounds like his Annapolis career - shortcut for the playboy Admiral's son.

Cheating? For our "Country First" patriot? Only way he can play on the same field as Barack.

Ben said...

It is not and Andrea Mitchelle said this morning the Obama people were furious behind-the-scenes because they were convinced McCain had cheated.

Warren said McCain was in his car while Obama was speaking - therefore perfectly able to hear the questions from someone present there and prepare for them.

So the Obama people had smelled a rat and there you have it. There WAS a rat.

Sedi said...

It couldn't be that McCain was listening. He wouldn't cheat, he's a war hero. His campaign said that they didn't hear, and they would never lie, right? McCain would never lie to get elected.* And, of course, no church leader could ever lie or behave dishonorably.**

*Disclaimer: Statements do not apply to John McCain or his presidential campaign.
**Disclaimer: Statement does not apply to Jim Bakker, Jimmy Swaggart, Ted Haggard, scores of child-molesting Catholic priests, or, apparently, Rick Warren.

Wendell said...

Thats par for the course. GOP CHEATERS!

jack black said...

Nate,

I know you like Obama, but do you have to come off as an Obama HOMER!!

Since when is R. SANCHEZ of CNN anything but an Obama spinmiester.

Your guy got his ass kicked in the forum, and now you have to grasp at straws to explain his miserable showing.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, this election is now over. " It was above my pay grade before it was below my pay grade."

Plug that statement into your numbers Nate, along with Obama's collapse in Ohio and then tell me who you think will win.

cowbat friend said...

It did seem watching that McCain knew the questions somehow prior - Warren had barely finished putting a question to him before McBrain had 'stump-speeched' all over it. However, let me say that Warren himself seems like a genuine guy but one who is, perhaps, a little simple and trusting? He seems to have a good heart and always pronounced Obama's name correctly (a true 'hater' finds that hard to do!) and showed him respect in many ways during the interview. He may have been duped and if so then he has to clear his name and this will bring down McBrain's 'campaign'. For sure.

Nate said...

Jack,

I don't care what Rick Sanchez says or what Andrea Mitchell says or what the Obama campaign says. When it was just an Andrea Mitchell rumor, fed to her by the Obama campaign, it fell into the category of the daily partisan rantings and screamings that I don't really have the energy to follow.

What I do care about is what Rick Warren says. And he just fundamentally contradicted the impression he conveyed to a national television audience last night.

musicman said...

I watched CNN and Fox right after the forum...and what all of the analysts commented on was how McCain answered questions before Warren was done asking them. Let's stop and think about this. You would think that McCain, a guy who was really trying to stay on message, would listen to the whole question in efforts to avoid a gaffe or misstatement. No...he went into rapid fire, GOP sound-bite answer mode half way through the questions he received. This stood out for two reasons..1. When Obama was given questions, Warren seemed to ask longer questions..ie, conditionals, follow ups, anecdotes. 2. McCain has never answered questions this succintly and stayed this close on message.

Something is fishy here, the facts will come out and in the final analysis, this will turn out to be a winner for Obama.

VegnaBlitz said...

Jack Black,

It was Rick Warren who said it to Rick Sanchez and CNN viewers...Unless you think the church leader and moderator of the forum was also "in the bag" for Obama?

NJ_Moderate said...

There is something fishy about that report. After all, it would be far easier for him to give McCain a phone call a day in advance to give him the questions or at least have someone pass it to him in the closed room while Obama was speaking. Surely, Obama would have noticed McCain's absence when the debate started.

cowbat friend said...

Nate, jack is just yanking you -chill, babe! By the way, it was broadcast internationally like most of this election else I wouldn't have seen it!

rnst_p said...

No update for the PPP poll of Ohio?

Obama 45, McCain 45

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/08/mccain-pulls-even-in-ohio.html

jack black said...

Nate,

I disagree again, the first thing you attempt to convey that their was a conspiracy on the part of McCain.

Even if he wasn't in the cone of silence, it doesn't mean he was listening. Furthermore, it wasn't McCain's answers that were the problem. It's above my pay grade that was the problem!!!!!!!!

McCain always believed life started at conception. Obama took 10 minutes to get to It's above my pay grade.

The list goes on from that night. Is their evil-McCain-yes, and we need to fight it.

Obama-10 minute dissertation on why we maybe should fight it put we shouldn't be arrogant about fighting evil. Do you want more examples.

Your guy looked stupid because of his answers not from anything that Warren or McCain did.

Ryan said...

hyperbole much?

Virginia Conservative said...

Theres one moment in the debate where it made me wonder if McCain new the questions before hand. He said something like, "I hope we get to that question about Supreme Court Justices later!"

There either better not be anything to this, or there better be little reporting on it from the media for both he and Warren's sake!

Continue to Spread the Word!!! said...

I have lost ALL respect for this website after this post.

You folks see Ohio, I hate to say I told you so about the party id thing!!! When you give the Dems a 13-25% cushion in party id in Ohio, which is ridiculous, of course Obama would be up big. Even with a 5-7 point part id cushion, Obama is still tied.

PUMA!

Virginia Conservative said...

The question is, will CNN cover its ass or will they feel used by Warren and McCain if there is any truth to this?

Smitty said...

jack black,

Your version is colored by your belief in McCain. You genuinely believe what you say.

The version of an Obama supporter is colored by his/her belief in Obama. Obama supporters saw the evening differently and genuinely believe what they say.

It will be over in November. Many things can happen between now and then.

Virginia Conservative said...

BTW, PUMA is a really stupid ass term. It sounds like a something a porn-addled college freshmen would coin for diehard Clinton supporters.

Barry said...

You all are sore losers. McCain had a great night last night, deal with it.

It's stupid. Whenever something goes against the democrats it has to be a conspiracy or someone on the GOP side cheated. 2000 election, 2004 election, and now this debate. How come democrats can't just accept defeat like a man instead of whine and complain?

I doubt McCain heard the questions before hand. You think he would be more mature than that.

Frank said...

Nate,

Come on. You've got to be kidding. Please stop grasping at straws.

Brad said...

PUMA is stupid? Well, it is more innovative than "Virginia Conservative".

As for the forum - the pastor should be ashamed and make a public apology.

cowbat friend said...

A humorous vignette to cheer Nate up:
I'm guessing now McBrain built a time machine (being the brainy chap he is) to advance to the time when he was getting pumped by warren. After he got over the weirdness of seeing himself (he was like "whoa! this is weird; I can see myself getting interviewed by fatty-boy Warren" -yes, he was derogatory to Warren! little realising the irony of such a comment coming from a balding assmole like himself). Anyway he saw what questions he was getting and saw how much his first answers were sucking and gradually improved them with each successive time travel (and yep it took more than one trip- like Obama in his youth!) until he gave the masterclass that was his performance last night on tv and the one we were all graciously allowed to see by the powers that be. Praise to God and all good 538 creatures! Here endeth the stupid vignette.

VirPuma - that's exactly how the coin was termed. or something.

Simon said...

VCon,

PUMAs are the next big thing in porn. You're right about that. MILFs are out of style.

Roger said...

This is rich...five million dollars rich.

So, McCain outshines Obama, therefore McCain cheated.

Perhaps McCain "performed" better because he answered the questions truthfully and from the heart. I think Obama's stammering, word parsing and obfuscating are the real reasons he appeared to lose the night.

I have to say, it's entertaining seeing my Democrat friends suddenly concerned about their man. I would think after running arrogant elitists in 2000 and 2004, this year's version would not be as surprising. You need to bring back Bubba (Bubba's bride?) in 2012 and try again.

VegnaBlitz said...

VA Conservative: If this is proven true as more details come out, or simply that Warren stands by his statements of McCain not being where he was supposed to be...Doesn't that reflect badly on McCain's character? This isn't a mistake "in the past." This is taking an unfair advantage here and now--a sign of weak character.

jeremy said...

That's not the worst part. The story about the cross in the dirt? Ripped off . This guy is a total fraud.

Virginia Conservative said...

Its a legitimate issue if you can get some hard proof that Warren lied, or (a much bigger deal) Warren is a partisan and conspired with McCain. Theres really scant proof as of yet though.

If McCain did hear the questions in advance he should just come out and say so if hes directly asked that. The story might last a day and blow over. As Dick Nixon could tell you, its not the crime, its the cover-up.

Still theres no proof. Its all hearsay and circumstantial evidence at this point. You gotta do better than that.

Continue to Spread the Word!!! said...

Another page out of the liberal playbook Nate. You watch the whole forum, notice McCain kicked some serious ass, and throw out this BS post for people to believe.

Well my friend, you are the one who is wrong here. What a horrible post. Your site should be OBJECTIVE, not so SUBJECTIVE and biased how it has been lately.

HOW ABOUT THESE POLLS FOR MCCAIN. HE IS SURGING AHEAD LIKE BUSH IN 2004!!!! FOUR MORE YEARS OF GOP RULE!

jsh1120 said...

Interesting item. And as trivial as this seems to be on the surface, it may well have legs if it can be proven.

Many years ago I was in the field during the Watergate period interviewing religious fundamentalists for my dissertation when the news that Nixon had used a variety of vulgarities in the White House tapes. In looking at the results before and after that revelation, it was clear that Nixon's support crumbled among those folks with that revelation. That was many months before Nixon was forced from office, but the results convinced me he was done for.

Perhaps the religious right has become more tolerant of their heroes since then, but I strongly suspect if it's proven that McCain "cheated," it will hurt him badly among the evangelicals he needs so badly.

cowbat friend said...

Just to overegg this a dime- McCain must be feeling similar to how he did over Hanoi once upon a sweet and sour. Phony tool. Only those puma milfs can save him now.

JC3wuzhere said...

I think a of of you guys are missing the point. Nate didn't say anything about how McCain did last night and no one is disputing how well he did. The main point is McCain may have heard some of the questions beforehand which was against the rules of the forum. If that's the case, that's cheating and there's no way to defend that.

Virginia Conservative said...

Brad-

I never claimed to be a creative genius. Even if I was I'd still have a disdain for cutesy acronyms. (I hate the term PATRIOT ACT, too).

cowbat friend said...

just read cnn's politicker byline: 'McCain didn't violate the cone of silence' - now that would have been taking porn to new level if he had!!

vircon- call yourself 'vircony' - that would be very cool.

Newman039 said...

I too have lost a lot of respect for this website. It's proven to be worthless for any commentary outside of basic statistical analysis.
Half of the time McCain is characterized as an old senile Grinch, and now we are supposed to believe he actually overheard the questions, had time to prepare and memorize quick detailed responses (in real time) and deliver them articulately.
He can barely get through a rehearsed stump speech which he reads from a teleprompter. McCain is best when unrehearsed, and that showed last night.
Stick to what your good at.

cowbat friend said...

jc3: you're right as usual. It's also clear that the same rule of 'not giving a stump speech' was not applied to McChain - "We need to drill babies here, we need to drill them now" -that's as plain a stump speech as has been given in the history of mankind!

Virginia Conservative said...

He said, on the CNN Political Ticker,that he did not see any of the broadcast or audio from the broadcast.

The only other way he would have known the questions would be 1)on a cell phone from an aid, 2) he was conspiring with Rick Warren.

#2 is almost 9/11 truther territory.

Theres no evidence of #1. The "Cone of Silence" (though I was under the impression last night it was a soundproof room) was really just a room with no TV or audio. Cell phones would be allowed, but again theres zero proof. This is all internet speculation thats not going anywhere.

John Nail said...

OH - PPP Poll - has McC getting 18% of AA vote - worth 5% overall compared to the last poll which was 91-6. Dems at 75% Obama, Reps. at 87% McC...

These internals..

bellalu0 said...

What about this response by Obama when asked about the orphans?


"A I CHEATED A LITTLE BIT. I ACTUALLY LOOKED AT

THIS IDEA AHEAD OF TIME AND I THINK IT IS A -- I THINK

IT'S A GREAT IDEA."

Klondike said...

This doesn't seem to be nearly as big a deal as Nate is making out to be. There were no expectations about cones of silence, and it could have been Obama going second just as easily. I'm an Obama supporter, but I don't see the big deal.

cowbat friend said...

Vircony, my friend, (aka 'arctic sexgod') you may be right - it will only have legs I say if Warren finds out he was duped and feels the need to clear his name. Then the affair will be called warrengate by some inspired journo. But it is clear on reflection of yesterday's event that the no-stump-speech rule was broken by McCain rather disgracefully. A less major offence but still ungentlemanly.

Ben said...

He said he did not see or hear the broadcast.
He didn't say some of his aides present in the church didn't and didn't tell him about it through phone or text message or email.

Enough said. Sounds very narrow denial to me but maybe I am paranoid.

Virginia Conservative said...

You think McCain knows how to txt? Really?

RSN South said...

Sadly, I find myself agreeing somewhat with Continue to Spread the Word!!! I haven't lost all respect for this website, but this kind of conspiracy nonsense (reminiscent of the charges about the "bump" on Bush's back during his first debate with Kerry) definitely devalues this site. Nate, I believe you would serve yourself well to rethink this post.

Unquestionably, McCain had a good night. While this surprised many, the strong reviews for his performance can be attributed in part to the incorrect assumption that he can't handle public speaking. Not only can he, but – having done hundreds of town hall meetings – he flourishes in exactly this type of format. And having set records for his number of appearances on Sunday morning talk shows, he knows how to handle responding while being seated at a table. Add to that the fact that he was addressing an audience predisposed to his views (and wanting to feel good about voting for him), and you get an evening tailor-made for John McCain. Yet, some seemed positively shocked that he didn't drool on himself and keel over. It is highly unlikely it would have been any different had McCain gone first.

As the Clinton campaign continuously pointed out, Obama doesn't fare well in these settings. Have we forgotten entirely his final debate performance versus Clinton? He may not need a TelePrompTer and an enormous crowd, but he definitely does better when he has both. And, short snappy answers to questions - virtually any questions - are definitely not his forte.

After watching the event last night, I immediately turned to MSNBC. They had a very short wrap-up program. When David Shuster started acting as though McCain had won, I was pretty sure it had been a successful night for the soon-to-be GOP nominee.

jeremy said...

The entire premise of the event was to put the candidates on the spot so we can see how they actually think and get personal answers. If Mccain is getting prepped by advisers before the event it makes a huge difference in our ability to accurately compare them.

Wendell said...

McCheater!!!

DCM in FL said...

Virginia Conservative @ 6:49 PM said...

"Theres one moment in the debate where it made me wonder if McCain new the questions before hand. He said something like, "I hope we get to that question about Supreme Court Justices later!"

There either better not be anything to this, or there better be little reporting on it from the media for both he and Warren's sake!"
---------------------------------

That is an excellent post, and I agree but do not want to trach McCain on it completely yet.

However, if he cheated then he deserves to be flogged & shunned.

In a church no less...

Besides the Court Q gaffe, I questioned his rapid response on EVIL - it wasn't even out of pastor Rick's mouth before he turned to the audience & sternly delivered his obviously prepared statement.

Also, the ad lib stories came off as more than scripted. But IF it turns out that he 'lifted' the 'cross in the dirt' POW story then the man has no credibility left ! It is eerily similar to a storyline in Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn's 'The Gulag Archipelago'.

After McCain was busted for 'embelishing' his POW story for the Steelers/Packers earlier this year, well it seems he will say anything & do anything to try to win this election.

Obama got played either way though.

Virginia Conservative said...

Good too see I'm not the only one reminded of "Bumpgate".

Mark said...

Didn't watch this thing. Maybe McCain cheated - who knows.

What I DO know is that the trolls who come on here to scream "MCCAIN SURGING AHEAD! THIS ELECTION IS OVER!!! THE DEMOCRAT ELITIST LOSES AGAIN!!!!!!!" are fucking morons.

Franco said...

All you ReTHUGS are a blast when the OLD troll loses in Nov we will see what you say then...bwaahahahahah

jqb said...

This is highly despicable behavior, folks

Uh, we're talking about Republicans and preachers, so that goes without saying.

hillaryclinton4barackobama said...

Reiteration ...

"This is highly despicable behavior, folks

Uh, we're talking about Republicans and preachers, so that goes without sayin"

'nuff said ...

cowbat friend said...

rsn: this is about playing by the rules, not who 'won' the debate -everyone accepts that McCain gave a good performance- Clinton didn't want to play by the rules and now it appears the honorable MugabeCain may be trying the same.

DCM in FL said...

Virginia Conservative,

I heard from a friend in SoCal that the event was also broadcast over the radio & across the Saddleback church campus.

If he was actually in a car, then McCain would have had every opportunity to hear the first 1/2 hour & prepare.

I am sure some reporter or the Enquirer can get to the bottom of this affair...

If it turns out to have legs, many more people will hear about the fallout than ever would have heard about the event... go figure

Darío said...

Remember that, PPP is a democratic pollster. In Ohio, McCain is leaning easily.

Virginia Conservative said...

DCM-

He denied hearing any video OR audio from the debate.

The only thing that denial leaves open is 1)email/texting prep (not likely, we're talking about a computer illiterate here as Democrats never cease reminding me) or 2)cell phone prep (more likely, he does chat on the cell a lot from what his aids say).

Mark said...

Also remember, Dario, that it's one poll. It's not singularly definitive.

Mark said...

Another possibility, VC, is that the McCain camp lied.

DCM in FL said...

Darío said...

"Remember that, PPP is a democratic pollster. In Ohio, McCain is leaning easily."

Give it a rest, buddy. PPP had McCain up 49 - 41 in OH back in April.

NEITHER poll makes much difference at the moment. Everyone knows the RED OH is gonna be a close election again this year...

The polls do not matter until mid-September or if the candidate trends remain over 50% for months.

Virginia Conservative said...

If they outright lied, you gotta give hard proof or this doesn't go beyond liberal blog chatter.

Phil Lembo said...

Here's the C-SPAN link:

http://www.c-spanarchives.org/library/index.php?main_page=product_video_info&products_id=280492-1

DCM in FL said...

Virginia Conservative,

McCain has denied MANY things in the past & recently that have been proved that he said or did.

He denied saying 100 years in Iraq right [even if outt-of-context somewhat].

How could he possibly admit it ? But when he prompted for the Supreme Court Q, John just let the cat out of the bag...

And he had every opportunity to correct pastor Rick in person when he said in front of McCain that 'he was in a cone of silence'.

McCain was in fact admittedly NOT in such a cone or quiet room, so effectively that is a LIE in a Church no less !

sorry, the bar for 'proof' on this is very low. Perception is what will matter [IMO]

Mark said...

VC, I don't have hard proof. But if the event was being broadcast outside the church as McCain was arriving, I don't see how McCain could NOT have had any exposure to the questions being asked before arriving. And Warren had already lied about McCain being ensconced in a "cone of silence".

This IS just liberal blog chatter until there's proof, either for-real proof or ad-populum proof (which unfortunately produces the same effect).

cowbat friend said...

btw, what's this cellphone/texting crap? it's far likelier McBrain was listening to a wireless or a crystal set. altern., he just put his lovely balding head to the ground on alighting from his penny-farthing and deciphered the earth tremors. quod erat demonstrandum.

filistro said...

Oh, this is all so delicious.

Grampa finally won a bingo game, and now the mean kids are threatening it take his prize away just because he cheated!

No wonder the wingnuts are all yelling. "No fair, no fair! Let the poor old wrinkly white-haired dude keep his prize. Look at him, he's OLD!!!"

LOL

Virginia Conservative said...

DCM, the perception--among the public at large, not the 35% or so that make up the hardcore liberal Democrat base--is that McCain is a man of integrity. So its very difficult to call him a liar without a hell of a lot of proof.

Darío said...

I never said that i like an Ohio Red.
I said Ohio was red now.
And PPP is a dem pollster like Strategic Vision (Republican). If Strategic Vison said that Obama is leaning in PA, Obama is winning PA easily.
If PPP said that Ohio is a tie, McCain is winning Ohio now.

SNED said...

I don't understand the backlash against Nate here, how is it not a valid point that the Pastor told everyone McCain was in a cone of silence when he knew he was not? McCain didn't get there till a half hour after Obama was over? You don't have to be a conspiracy theorist to figure that something was not 100% kosher here.

The sad thing is even if this gets out the Republicans will just chant sore loser over and over. I hate how they manage to hijack the discourse over and over again.

someperson718 said...

I was wondering why he answered questions before they were asked if he didn't hear them? That...........frankly............ is deplorable.

DCM in FL said...

cowbat friend,

your post above made me lol

but not enuf 2 ROF

thanx 4 the chuckle...

Jeremy said...

I was watching Sanchez on CNN and Warren clearly stated that McCain wasn't in the "cone of silence" at the beginning of the Obama interview. Therefore Warren lied. Any other information is just meaningless speculation. The interesting thing is why he lied -- I really get the sense from him that he does want to rise above the fractious tone found everywhere in America these days, including this thread.

Btw, I thought Obama did quite well, whatever some of you think -- and remember that he was in hostile territory. I actually liked his answer about when life begins ("its above my paygrade") -- because none of us really knows, or even knows what the hell it means, do we?

I thought McCain was giving mostly a stump speech and, as usual, making claims about things he would achieve as president he has no way to accomplish. I think he came across rather thin. For voters who prefer sloganeering to careful thought, he did great. For those who take matters seriously, he didn't.

Franco said...

Mark...it is not liberal chatter...Rick sanchez interviewed the lying Warren and he said McTroll was not at the church for the so-called coin toss...Obama was had..that is ok..Obama did ok.....people who don't like him won't change their minds BUT...McTroll LIED and and so did the EVANGELICAL...who wudda thunk?

Virginia Conservative said...

So Warren either lied or mis-stated. All McCain has to do is say "Warren was wrong, but I admit I wasn't in any cone of silence".

Darío said...

The RCP electoral map isn´t goog.
It gives Indiana to Obama and Colorado to McCain when Obama is leaning CO and McCaiin is leaning IN.
OH is OK, now for McCain.

TrumanHugh said...

JACK BLACK...your "Friend" didn't kick ass last night. He simply spoon-fed 100% recycled stump material to a willing and receptive audience. Of course he was going to get more and louder applause! He was at a church in Orange County for crying out loud!!

And Obama didn't suck, either. In fact, I'd argue, given the above-mentioned audience, that Obama handled himself very well. He got a unprovoked standing ovation upon arrival and managed to draw several bursts of applause throughout his thoughtful, on-the-spot answering.

If there is any hint of inpropriety found--like McCain not being where we all were led to believe he was--it will only fuel the speculation that McCain came off as rehearsed and expectant (asking about "that Supreme Court question" is pretty telling) because he knew the questions ahead of time.

Same to you, BARRY. These two candidates were not hanging out together in a green room waiting for their cue. The idea that Obama would have noticed McCain's absence beforehand speaks to you ignonrance of how such forums and debates are planned and executed.

Even FauxNews made a point to say that McCain's responses were uncharacteristically quick and articulate.

Not a NeoClown said...

Wow. As a Reagan Democrat and firm Replublican supporter, I must say this really has me worried. Just the fact that the liberal media is saying that McCain cheated puts the idea out there for everyone to consider. And if there's any truth to it . . . watch out.

Not only that, but he seems to have made up/plagiarized the cross-in-the-dirt story. Sheesh.

Is this the best we can do for a candidate? Obama's been out of the public eye for a week and McCain is down in the Rasmussen tracker and only tied in Ohio, where he must win.

The VP pick had better be Romney or someone with some serious heft. Maybe Giuliani?

Virginia Conservative said...

Giuliani!? Are you TRYING to get him to make the wrong decision?

He doesn't need a socially liberal tragedy pimping nanny stater with ties to organized crime.

jeremy said...

"Man you're jumping ahead. You know all of my questions.." - Rick Warren at 01:08:40 .

DCM in FL said...

Virginia Conservative-

ok, point taken except for the %'s that matter.

Forget the liberal/progressives. McCain was already a 'liar' to them/us.

The real impact may [or may not] be with the large 35+ MOD & IND electorate.

If McCain is seen as insulting their intelligence by 'cheating & lying' on such a basic issue as fairness, then he stands to lose any moral high ground as well as the election - 'can't be trusted' would be the tagline.

IF John did 'cheat' or even appear to cheat, he better take his own advice from the Keating 5 era & throw himself NOW on the mercy of the court of public opinion somehow. A major mea culpa [like Nixon sold & Clinton too] might get forgiveness unless he fights a losing battle for 2 months on this charge.

Maybe he can blame it on Obama somehow ??? or Bush made him do it, that would work !

Darío said...

Neoclown, if you are a firm republican supporter i´m a communist.
Please...

gougef said...

PPP Ohio Poll Press Release

Given that the VP Pick and Convention are near, not really bad numbers for Obama, a lot of room to improve n Democratic support.

Also, African-Americans down 11 points?

realistxxx said...

Well, this certainly takes some of the gleam off Mac's performance. For those saying this is just an internet discussion it is not. It was on CNN where Warren himself admits McCain wasn't sequestered.

This morning Andrea Mitchell also raised the possibility that McCain seemed to know the questions before the Warren revelation.

Everyone noted how well "prepared" McCain seemed.

I doubt Warren is involved but McCain staffers getting the Q's to his aids in Saddleback by b-berry is not that hard to believe.

It will likely never be proved but the doubt will remain.

Regardless, Obama did the 2 things he needed to do. He showed the fundamentalists he is not a scary radical muslim and with his measured, thoughtful and soul searching responses he showed the new "questioning" Christians that he was humble and sincere about his faith and how it impacts US policy.

McCain threw out red meat for the base but did nothing to show he was serious, deep or thoughtful about his faith.

In essence Obama was up facing a major league fireballer in a hostile stadium and hit a couple solid line drives for extra bases. McCain was taking batting practice and hit a few out but BP doesn't count for squat. If it tutrns out that people start to think Mac was using a corked bat, then this will be a big negative for him.

Daniel said...

The Obama campaign needs to prove this (if it actually happened) and hold McCain's foot to the fire.

But it needs to be proven -- and I think McCain walking freely around for Obama's first 1/2 hour and then later asking Warren "are we going to get to that question later" is pretty good circumstantial evidence that McCain knew the questions to the exam.

But it still needs to be proven.

First Bush is wired for his debate against Kerry and now McCain may have been privy to the questions -- I thought Droopy Dog said, "cheaters never win".

eponymous said...

VA Cons,

Thanks for commenting on this news with a reasonable response despite your partisan leanings.

The response to these kinds of allegations should not be: "This is all Democratic lies and ridiculous conspiracy theory! You guys are whiners because you lost!" Nor should it be: "This is definitely proof that all conservatives are scumbags, just like I knew they were." Sadly that's what it seems to have devolved into.

Our response, in my opinion, should be simply this: fine, there are allegations of misconduct, let's fully investigate what happened and when we have all the facts, they will speak for themselves. At this point we don't know if he did cheat or he did not, but there is no reason not to find out.

I'll steal a line from John Stewart and ask, can't we even agree on reality anymore?

Virginia Conservative said...

Let me put it this way, I'll be worried when this is the top story on "Hardball" and discussed seriously on "Meet the Press".

Brad said...

I am a huge Obama guy. Who thinks the collapse of his campaign could well start with his vacation? Who takes a vacation 90 days before the most important thing you will ever do in your life? Did Phelps go on vacatio to rest up?

DCM in FL said...

jeremy @ 7:39 PM said...

"Man you're jumping ahead. You know all of my questions.." - Rick Warren at 01:08:40 ...

Good post - let the obvious speak for itself...

touche

Darío said...

VA cons, all are against you.
Good luck.

Patrick said...

The video of the Warren interview on CNN is here:

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/08/17/forum/index.html#cnnSTCVideo

Somebody better ask McCain about this at his next open Q&A session. If he ever has one.

DCM in FL said...

Darío @ 7:35 PM said...

"The RCP electoral map isn´t goog.
It gives Indiana to Obama and Colorado to McCain when Obama is leaning CO and McCaiin is leaning IN.
OH is OK, now for McCain."
----------------------------
come on, please knock off these concern troll posts. you have been rebutted ad nauseum so that only leaves trolling as your intent.

filistro said...

Darío said...
VA cons, all are against you.
Good luck.


Actually on this thread I'm liking VCon more than ever before. I see strong glimmerings of fairness and morality. Exceedingly gratifying.

cowbat friend said...

Whatever the truth, McCain has to deny cheating. His best offensive move is to say 'God revealed the questions to me on the way to saddleback'. This will play well with evangelicals, one-armed bandits and mascarpone-eaters. As well as getting that creepy latte-sucking, arugula-smoking 'liberal' Nate Silver off his back!

Jeff said...

I would like to begin by stating that this is the first time I've been moved to comment, and full disclosure I was a Clinton supporter and am now undecided. That being said, I have to agree with some of the earlier posters.

This is easily one of my favorite websites, and one of the first I visit (multiple times) everyday. That being said, I feel as though, while you acknowledge you are pro-Obama, and that is appreciated and professional, that is evidently beginning to overly-influence not only your bloggings but also evidently your poll postings and analysis.

Notably, this "downward slide" began with some outlandish and misplaced belief that there was some "creepy O-bam-a voice" in the Celebrity ad, and now this yet unsustantiated grasping at straws and non-stories in an effort to justify Obama's similarly-timed slide. Furthermore, the not timely posting (if this was overlooked, I apologize) of the Ohio PPP poll (a partisan D poll, at that), which would have likely pushed the state into McCain territory in Regression and projection, only solidifies that belief in my mind (You got in the RMN).

Of course, I could always only be hearing imaginary voices in ads and clinging to straws because my mind can't comprehend how my guy can't be charging ahead, or maybe my "inner liberal," prone to conspiracy theories, is developing one about this site.

I know it's hard not to want your guy to win, but don't let desire cloud your professional reputation and story/blog choices especially when it comes to polls and witch-hunts. There are plenty of other news-worthy items to blog about, even a plethora of substantiated pro-Obama/anti-McCain ones.

If this story does turn out to be true, however, I'll be the first to say "I'm sorry."

Darren said...

Nate, this sounds like sour grapes. Even if there is something to this, it doesn't rxplain Obama's unforced error on "when does life begin" and lame responses to "who would you consult" and other questions.

Most of these questions could have been easily anticipated. But for the more unusual questions where McCain could have leveraged advance knowledge, keep in mind McCain gets all kinds of questions in town halls and has learned to think on his feet and respond quickly. He typically has a staccato, impatient style to his answers, so his behavior was perfectly consistent with having no advance knowledge.

Bottom line, you and other Obama supporters are upset because this was supposed to be Obama's chance to shine for evangelicals and his answers on abortion and same-sex marriages sounded like he hadn't even anticipated they might be topics. Conspiracy theories don't account for his lack of preparedness, sometime evasiveness, and overly intellectual approach.

DCM in FL said...

Virginia Conservative said...

"Let me put it this way, I'll be worried when this is the top story on "Hardball" and discussed seriously on "Meet the Press"."

Bet it will lead on Monday, also on Verdict [which I like now] & AC360, etc.

wonder if Keith O will jump or this ??? nah, he has too much dignity for chasing this meme with Rachel M.[not]....

someperson718 said...

(Not a)NEOCLOWN has the nerve to say "liberal media" when they were slobbing McCain's knob last night, yea right. If it is proven that McCain WAS NOT in a cone of silence, in which he said and I quote "I was trying to listen through the wall" that is CHEATING. This revelation about that cross story is something I won't touch though, if it is proven to be taken from that story than so be it, we would have no idea if it was true or not though.

Craig said...

Here is the link to the CNN story.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/08/17/warren-mccain-did-not-violate-cone-of-silence/

Virginia Conservative said...

Being the #1 story on Keith Angrymann doesn't scare me at all. In fact I fully expect it, and will promptly yawn.

Not a NeoClown said...

Whoa, more confirmation that the "cross in the dirt" story is from the Gulag Archipelago. And Pastor Warren was less-than-truthful about whether McCain was in the isolated room. When church figures lie to you and my candidate makes up heoric stories: that's scary.

Is it too late to turn to Romney? At least with him as the VP, we can ask voters to put both men on the ticket, even with McCain's apparent inability to close the deal against a neophyte opponent.

Virginia Conservative said...

Romney? McCain needs Eric Cantor.

DCM in FL said...

filistro,

I agree. VA CON has been mostly civil tonight - who knew it was possible ?

But thanks from me also, VA CON. Factual & rational discourse is much appreciated.

Sedi said...

Continue to Spread the Word!!! said..."I have lost ALL respect for this website after this post."

Then please leave and don't come back. Sadly, there are plenty of other loudmouths here, so we won't miss you much.

It's telling that so many folks posting here seem to think that it is no big deal that McCain didn't follow the rules (this fact is not being disputed), feel like we should just take his campaign at its word that he didn't see or hear the broadcast (a very narrowly worded denial), and think that Nate is too partisan for bringing it up. I don't know if McCain heard the answers -- though many people posting last night (before this story broke) thought that he answered too quickly several times, indicating that he did have knowledge.

I -- like most of America -- had the good sense to watch Phelps win a record 8th gold medal in a single Olympics rather than watch the faith forum. I don't pretend to know who won, but it isn't right when someone breaks the rules. I am not saying there was a conspiracy (nor was Nate, I don't think), but that doesn't make it right. I would say the same thing if Obama did it. Breaking the rules is wrong, period. I don't know how you folks can call yourselves conservative (though many here are clearly just party-line hacks, not principled individual thinkers) if you don't believe something as basic and traditional as: breaking the rules is wrong.

cowbat friend said...

darren, i am moved to respond to your erudite comment. The only thing Nate is obliged to keep straight is the numbers. And until you find evidence that he's not doing that, back off!

Darío said...

Eric Cantor?. A jew?.
The base!.

DCM in FL said...

someperson718,

NeoClown was being facetious in the post you were offended by [I think]... way too subtle of a faux 'concern troll' posting their Neo...

Virginia Conservative said...

The base loves conservative Jews. Remember how pro-Israel evangelicals are.

Darío said...

Nate, OH is red now.

cowbat friend said...

darren: re-reading your post I wonder if you're not suffering from PMT (puma-milf-troll disease).

jeremy said...

Alright look at 01:16:50 . Warren hasn't asked a single question much less the three Mccain answers.

Darío said...

Neoclown is a libertarian.

DCM in FL said...

Virginia Conservative said...

"Being the #1 story on Keith Angrymann doesn't scare me at all. In fact I fully expect it, and will promptly yawn."

Keith O. is agreeably WAY over the top to the point of being sheer entertainment value only. Can be fun to watch a speeding train or car wreck, but he is an antidote for the even more bizarro Billo, and blowhard Rush. Hannity is almost as bad now as well since he seems to be getting ever more strident [fair & balanced indeed]. Colmes cannot sufficiently counter-balance Sean H.

But I will agree that Keith can be a tool too...

Darío said...

See this page,

voteobamaormccain.com

yazzel said...

It's surprising that anyone would ask whether a financially corrupt adulterer would cheat on debate questions. Just remember: McCain deserves no reputation for integrity. The man has never been honest or competent and never will.

gougef said...

"But thanks from me also, VA CON. Factual & rational discourse is much appreciated."

I agree. Appreciated here.

Virginia Conservative said...

RE: on the update-

Exactly right theres nothing to have prevented McCain from hearing the first part of the debate except his word. His word isn't good enough for liberal Democrats. Its probably good enough for moderates (to say nothing of Republicans) who believe McCain is a man of integrity.

Unless an aid leaks something, this isn't going anywhere. Its more Warren's fault for not enforcing his own rules.

someperson718 said...

OH is red because a poll had it tied? Man repubs get excited over everyything. I wonder if they will come to this website anymore after election time.

TJB said...

It was a good warmup for the debates.

Obama needs to be coached to keep his comments concise.
McCain is just going to keep on doing what he's doing. With him it's the old dog new tricks thing.

I believe Biden will be the VP pick for Obama. Biden is heading to Georgia this week.
McCain's VP choice is going to get slammed by various Republicans no matter what.
Right now, this election is about as close as possible.

the wise said...

dcm: if colmes swallowed a giant latte-drinking, bamboo-chewing, liberally-minded panda bear he could counterbalance Hannity. But i don't think he has this digestive feat in him, alas.

jeremy said...

Ultimately Obama agreed to do this event at a church that obviously supports Mccain so Obama bears some responsibility in accepting a venue where the controls aren't really verifiable.

Darío said...

I think the best choices are Biden and Bayh. Hillary would cost him the election.

Craig said...

Nate you are so right on this one. It wouldn't have been such a big deal if McCain hadn't acted as if he actually was secreted away in some location where he couldn't hear the questions. It is only fair, to us and to McCain, that we learn the whole backstory on whether McCain was supposed to be in a "Cone of Silence" the entire time or if it was understood he would just be on the honor system. Does anyone doubt that a Rove protege wouldn't take advantage of this? Hell, McCain might not even have known he was supposed to be in a private room.

Virginia Conservative said...

Though no one would question Biden's ability to step into the Presidency in a situation that would very likely be a national crisis, he would be horrible on the campaign trail. The man can't keep his mouth shut. He says stupid things (i.e., "You can't go into a 7-11 without hearing an Indian accent!", "Barack Obama is smart, clean, articulate, and black!")

DCM in FL said...

Virginia Conservative,

you have received at least 3 positive aknowlegements tonight on this thread. CONGRATS !

anyway, yes Mccain should come right out & blame pastor Rick...

maybe not, it was the honor system & John proved at Annapolis that he had problems following honor code rules remember... that is how he ended up at the very bottom of his class but managed to get his wings anyway because he earned them on his own [de]merits...

sorry, that was sorta snarky - but that could become his narrative if this gets out as a meme with legs & volume during the run-up to the Conventions.

Trust me, John should blame BUSH & Cheney & their warrantless wiretaps that fed him the Q's in advance against his will. Maybe claim he was tortured into listening, but as the true maverick he is outing Bush on it.

THAT would play with the MSM & voters since Bush only has about 25-30% support & 41% tell Rasmussen he is the worst POTUS ever ! McCain should try to steal the theme that HE is the anti-Bush...

or maybe not...

the Olympics are on, so maybe he will get lucky & the story will die out like many other faux pas...

Darren said...

cowbat - "back off!"? "puma-milf-troll disease"? Isn't hurling juvenile insults a Republican tactic abhorred by Obama supporters?

As to calling out Nate, regular posters often eviscerate those who veer from the rational analytics that are the core of this site. So when Nate himself engages in rumors and innuendo, he deserves to be questioned.

If you are upset at my take on the debate, then you can also direct your anger at the many media columnists and bloggers who also found Obama surprisingly unprepared.

DCM in FL said...

DARIO - you are really being a concern troll tonight. please stop it with the stoopid posts & contribute reasonable content or be gone.

DNFTT

DCM in FL said...

the wise @ 8:11 PM said...

"dcm: if colmes swallowed a giant latte-drinking, bamboo-chewing, liberally-minded panda bear he could counterbalance Hannity. But i don't think he has this digestive feat in him, alas."

Ok, you got me there with the imagery. LOL

- I am sure Rachel Matow [sp?] could handle the task or better yet Faux should plant Arianna Huff opposite Hannity for a real slugfest. I would watch every night for the fireworks ! or maybe Bill Maher to counterbalance BillO's dolt Dennis [the dunce] Miller... now Miller is such a total tool that he makes me cringe when he opens his snarky mouth.

August 17, 2008 8:11 PM

Virginia Conservative said...

Put James Carville opposite Hannity. That would be entertaining.

OTF said...
This post has been removed by the author.
Patrick said...

As Jeremy said above: "Alright look at 01:16:50. Warren hasn't asked a single question much less the three Mccain answers."

Oops. McCain got a little ahead on his scripted answers there.

Citizen Grim said...

Nate, I love this site, but I groan every time you trot out one of these paranoid conspiracy posts.

Maybe after the election, Obama can convene a special tribunal to investigate what Rick Warren knew and when he knew it.

That'll unite the country.

cowbat friend said...

daren: oh dear.
1. I am not 'an Obama supporter'
2. I totally love and respect Republican tactics.
3. Republicans have never used the term 'puma-milf-troll'.
4. You were insulting Nate Silver's statistical integrity on the basis of a blog post you did not agree with.
5. You have an obvious bias against Obama.

DCM in FL said...

VA CON,

not a fair fight if they leave the playoing field so tilted toward Sean H.

I like when Carville & his wife Matalin [sp] do a he said/she said. How can they be narried ?

He has that southern honey thang going but Mary is just plain ol' scary hard-ass partisan on TV.

I have no doubt James will do anything to win, but at least he can crack a smile & make wise...

Didn't they try that format long ago somewhere on TV ? That is a cable show that should come back in this day & age...

OTF said...

Darren,

You do realize that Obama supporters or leaners weren't watching this. Warren is a rightwinger who puts on a good show like O'Reilley that he's not. The religious right people have no credility accept to their own. The only people watching, who cared were evangelicals and people already voting highly likely for McCain. Everybody else was watching the Olympics or out on a Saturday night. The church forum was 90% McCain people.

This means nothing to Obama in up or down in the polls. If your a Warren supporter or think he has credibility you are 90% chance you are a McCain voter. The only flub appears to be McCain saying that rich starts at 5 miillion, showing him being out of touch with the real world.

Virginia Conservative said...

Oh come on otf. Rick Warren is not Jerry Falwell. If anything he didn't enforce his rules well because hes too *nice*. Thats the impression I get from watching him. Hes WAY too nice and trusting, and forgets hes dealing with politicians, not his church members.

Darren said...

Some here have taken as evidence of forewarning McCain's comment (paraphrasing) "when are we getting to that Supreme Court question?"

When was the last time the Supreme Court didn't come up in relation to abortion and evangelical concerns? We are requiring a conspiracy to explain anticipating an inevitable topic?

Overrated said...

What a controversy! Nate you are amazing! You must be on to something. This could rock the campaign. This is the break that Obama needs. This could have a major impact on the race. Wow. Obama is no longer going to crash and burn. Ohio is turning back Blue as we hash this most significant issue of the evening. It is the turning pt - Obama has won it now.

DCM in FL said...

VA CON

I used to live in SoCal. Warren is not Falwell; he wants to be the new Billy Graham [IMO].

more like religion-lite, not hard-core but still with a 'tow the line' theme.

He sure is a master marketing preacher & prolific book-selling 'author'.

this 'event' can only help promote his desired status as minister to a nation & ambassador to the world...

Darren said...

otf - if you didn't watch this I don't see how you can have an opinion on what flubs there were.
(I also have to question your political junkie status since Phelps was only on for 15 minutes).

Virginia Conservative said...

Who says you have to chose?

You're telling me you ALL don't have a TiVO?

Overrated said...

If you point the tin hat to the west will you get better reception?

DCM in FL said...

DARREN,

Heard of Separation of Church & State ???

since when have nominations for the Supreme Court been in the purvey of any Church or pastor in an election ?

ask about abortion, fair enough. BUT judges by NAME as he requested is actually insultingly out-of-bounds.

Obama should have had the chutzpah to refuse to answer the question that specifically [esp. as McCain did later in naming 4 judges] because the Judiciary is an equally important & supposedly independent branch of our republic.

By insulting 4 judges by name [that I believe McCain voted to confirm], John undermined the foundations of judical independence. Obama did some too, but he was much softer [even on Scalia...]

The question was more than inappropriate for a Church or religious event.

This event never should have had an audience in attendence since it wa billed as a 'conversation'.

That would have been a much more reasonable setting which is basically how Obama treated it in the main.

Overrated said...

Judicial Independence? DCM FL you are confused. It is the judges that are to maintain independence. They are to be above politics - that is why Fed judges are appointed and do not run for office. Pres and Congress comment all the time about judges. The independence you refer to concerns the judges themselves. That is why they do not applaud during the State of the Union address. They sit their stoic like the impartial judges they are supposed to be.

John Nail said...

Warren now admits telling both the first 2 questions ahead of time per CNN.

CNN has this on replay at Midnight and 3 AM EST if you want to record it...

full transcript here;
http://www.rickwarrennews.com/transcript/

North Springs Neighbors said...

Am I the only one who thought "that's above my pay grade" was referring to God?

NJ_Moderate said...

There is one other scenario. Remember Warren is friends with McCain and Obama so he may have given a general list of topics that would be covered informally by word of mouth. The only two wildcard questions were the Supreme Court and abortion questions which were the questions that the Hannity/Limbaugh types were pounding away to be asked. The only reason for McCain to be believed is that he took at awful long time to pick Whitman out in the first question. I would have expected him to name Fiorina but it seemed like he was just grasping for a female name. Perhaps his age is a factor though.

John Nail said...

FYI - the 600 in the church proper paid up to $2000 to be there

John Nail said...

North Springs - I agree God was the reference there, no question

John Nail said...

nj_moderate - Warren told CNN today that he gave them both the first 2 questions

DCM in FL said...

Overrated said...

You have it backwards. The independence of the Judiciary is supposed to work both ways.

Yes, they have life appointments - but they can be impeached & it has happenned for political reasons in the past.

Historically, POTUS is to refrain from directly trying to exert influence on specific judges [overt or covert] or to openly criticize individuals for partisan purposes.

Likewise, traditionally it works the same way in reverse as you mentioned. They can be partisan during confirmation hearing, but once on the bench it is supposed to be hands off & no influence peddling.

Tell that to Cheney & his duck-hunting pal Scalia [influence] as well as all the other hyper-partisan actions during these Bush years. Same as in the Justice Dept - oh, wait are there not hearings going on now on how Bush & friends illegally & unethically 'influenced' the Justice Department for political partisan purposes.

It is all the same. The system is flawed, but it needs to be hands off. Still, the 5 GOP Supremes did award POTUS to Bush in 2000 so he owed them a debt... THAT 'decision' was not partisan of course which is what I was getting at above.

DO NOT make the courts a partisan battleground on either side. Warren exacerbated this issue by asking for names... not Christian of him at all.

Overrated said...

Oh no! Not 2 questions in advance. This controversy must not end! Obama needs help and this was going to be it.

Darren said...

cowbat -

Thank you for troubling to respond, condescension and all. Obviously you are very busy spouting your own opinions, so I appreciate the precious seconds you devoted to dismissing me.

From your first post, you either support Obama, are opposed to McCain, or simply talk that way ("McBrain", McCain "stump-speeched", is Warren an Obama "hater"). Further, my comment had nothing to do with Nate's statistical abilities, rather that this kind of post exhibits none of that analysis. Finally, if I appear to have a bias against Obama it's because I am a political junkie and familiarity breeds contempt. Same goes for McCain.

Perhaps on another occasion we can discuss the merits instead of flinging insults and questioning motives. The internet is vast and anything is possible.

It did seem watching that McCain knew the questions somehow prior - Warren had barely finished putting a question to him before McBrain had 'stump-speeched' all over it. However, let me say that Warren himself seems like a genuine guy but one who is, perhaps, a little simple and trusting? He seems to have a good heart and always pronounced Obama's name correctly (a true 'hater' finds that hard to do!) and showed him respect in many ways during the interview. He may have been duped and if so then he has to clear his name and this will bring down McBrain's 'campaign'. For sure.

John Nail said...

Warren on Larry King Monday nite...we'll see. McCain won't admit anything

PeteKent said...

My reaction: A Republican wins something and the Democrats cry foul. That's becoming very tiresome. Also, the ultimate compliment. From all the prattle about how well the nuanced Obama had done compared with the glib, let's stick to the talking points McCain we now must complain that his win was based on cheating.

*****

Nice movement in OH for McCain, closing the gap in a Democrat poll with skewed party ID nos that favor Obama. I'd add 5 % to these numbers. OH remains red on my map and NV and CO are turning, as is the race. Jury may still be out on CO, can;t tell the impact of the big Rally and VA seems whisker close, but I have my doubts.

Tito said...

People who are calling this entry by Nate partisan are showing themselves to be partisan. People were already commenting how McCain seemed well prepared, even jumping to answer questions ans the whole SCOTUS thing. This is a fair story to question and investigate. If the tables were turned, Obama would be getting just as hammered you know.

I think it's up to Rick Warren to apologize or explain any appearance of impropriety since he was the host and this was his event. He should have managed it better. As far as seeing if McCain knew questions, it seems the devil would be in the details. If he was out of the cone of silence for the first 30 minutes, then his preparedness would be more evident in the first 30 minutes of his Q&A session. Simple as that.

Either way, like I've stated otherwise, this event wasn't a big deal. More attention should be paid to all the candidates answers, but all that people are taking away from the whole two hours is only the abortion issue. And now it's all gonna be about impropriety. If a mini-scandal erupts for the McCain camp over this, their saving grace will be Obama's VP pick later in the week which will dominate the news cycles.

Darío said...

Explain your map, Pete.

Darren said...

dcm - just because you don't want the Supreme Court discussed by evangelicals doesn't mean they haven't been doing it for 35 years. Abortion and judges are the two most predictable topics when evangelicals and politicians meet.

Overrated said...

DCM - ok, fair enough. If elected officials have appt responsibility, then how is it not going to be a political issue. If the judiciary never offered decisons impacting power and control - perhaps, but it is a highly political appt. especially considering that judges have assumed greater interp power regarding what the Constitution actually means to say in the 21st century.

De Montfort said...

Mccain didn't bother to prepare any long answers with his advance warning. And his abortion answer will come back to haunt him.

DDHereNow said...

Maybe McCain didn't hear the questions in advance, but whoever wrote his answers must have. That first answer in particular sounded like it had been run through at least one focus group.

As for the other poster who assumed McCain must have "won" because David Gregory gave him his usual glowing review, that's one of the funniest things I've heard in days. (Cut to David Gregory grinning and "dancing" behind rappin' Karl Rove.)

NJ_Moderate said...

One other point is that this debate was similar in content to most of the Republican primary debates. Every single debate you had your question on abortion, your question on judges, your question on Christianity/Jesus, your question on the surge, your question on stem-cell research and your question on faith-based groups.

After 15 debates, even an old codger like McCain can memorize most of the answers.

Regardless, the true test will be in late September. If McCain performs well at that debate, then maybe he just had a great day yesterday. If not ...

The Opinionated Bastard said...

Wow guys. Paranoid much?

McCain did better for a simple reason. Experience. He's done lots of town halls, and this is the SECOND TIME he's run for President. Not to mention the fact that he's been in politics for much longer the Obama.

As for him talking over questions, that's just him taking control. In all these town halls he does, he gets questions out of left field all the time, and he simply turns the question to what he wants to talk about.

It's a pretty standard tactic in this kind of thing.

Smitty said...

North Springs,

Yes, some of us believe "above my pay grade" was referring to God. Obama was asked a similar question during the Primaries at a Faith Forum. He said it is a theological question regarding conception versus a soul stirring as the start of life and that the answer is available at a much higher level than he is.

moondancer said...

I posted on another thread today that both McCain and Warren are cynical liars, and voila. Any "pastor" that makes millions at religion is a hustler and a side-show carney. McCain and his surrogate just stacked the deck in typical GOP style. He is a dishonorable man.

Jackson said...

Keith Olbermann will probably be on top of this tomorrow.

Billy Ray Valentine said...

"And his abortion answer will come back to haunt him."

Interesting. Does someone have the text of that? McCain induced my nap before that, at about the 900th time he said, "My friends." Senator, I'm not your friend.

The Opinionated Bastard said...

Oh, and by the way, I watched this today on cnn. not yesterday, and McCain asked if there was going to be a question about the Supreme Court later.

He did NOT say "Are we going to get to that question about the Supreme Court later".

He just assumed there would be a Supreme Court question.

Jeesh guys.

moondancer said...

The Opinionated Bastard

It didn't hurt that he knew the questions in advance either.

Jackson said...

Keith O. is agreeably WAY over the top to the point of being sheer entertainment value only. Can be fun to watch a speeding train or car wreck, but he is an antidote for the even more bizarro Billo, and blowhard Rush. Hannity is almost as bad now as well since he seems to be getting ever more strident [fair & balanced indeed]. Colmes cannot sufficiently counter-balance Sean H.

But I will agree that Keith can be a tool too...


Keith is every bit as much of an egotistical blowhard as your O'Reilly or your Dobbs or your Blitzer, but at least he doesn't interrupt. That alone elevates him considerably above the rest.

eve said...

Rick Warren was lying. I do not believe he did not know whether or not McCain had arrived at the church.

realistxxx said...

In a strictly Rovian/Machiavellian sense this dust up is good for Obama regardless of the veracity.

The MSM was already doubting that McCain could be that well "prepared"

Enter the opportunity to crib answers/questions and you have a real story.

It is already the story of the Faith Forum... and on Monday it will likely continue to have legs. There is nothing else to talk about.

Clearly, McCain had motive, means and opportunity to get the questions in advance. There will never be definitive proof, but the perception that he might have will ring true.

Expect all of the pundits to at least touch on this except Fox, of course.

Again, this is an analysis that Rove would endorse. Anything to take the shine of McCain's apple should be good news for Dems.

Just as many of us hate the MSM for not focusing on the issues, this is one of those non-issue stories that will get alot of play.

Ironically, the Obama camp did exactly what they wanted to, regardless of Mac's performance. Get those Christians that have grown sour on the GOP rhetoric and no action to see Obama as a truly devout Christian.

Every time we doubt the Obama campaign they show us that they can out-Rove Rove.

Remember, it is not the Fundies that cost Kerry and Gore the election. It was the values voters. Obama showed he had values last night.

Mule Rider said...

Wow.

Only on this site full of blowhard liberal nutjobs would this mountain be made out of such a molehill.

Some of you have derailed. And I don't mean that in a cutesy, comical analogy about how your stubborn partisanship has caused you to drift right of the tracks of common senes....

No, I mean you lead miserable, bitter and terrible lives consumed by nothing but paranoia, hate, and fear. For any of you wishing this story has legs, you are garbage. Plain and simple.

Now, away from you liberal zombie simpletons and on to Nate for a second as the shepherd of you ignorant sheep - You were a hot shot with potential. Great statistical mind blessed with innovation and creativity. Heard you're pretty good at poker too.

But then you stepped into the political arena. At first, you were sound. And in some ways, your methodologies are still sound. But outside of that, you are a joke. And not even a funny one. You are a miserable blowhard to propagate this bull shit, and you are easing back closer to irrelevancy with each passing day for chasing "leads" as ridiculous as this one.

You have some followers and fans now. Good for you. But on November 5th, you'll be just a footnote, my friend. You will fade out into oblivion - into the abyss of ignorant liberals who do nothing but wallow in their own scornful and hateful filth. You are filth, and I will be happy when the day of reckoning comes and you are unequivocally forced to shut your mouth for lack of credibility on anything related to the political experience.

yy said...

Virginia Conservative,

Just in case you didn't know the forum was been aired on three radio stations in Orange County. The point is McCain campaign may have listed to the questions right from his limo which he sat in for about half an hour before making his entry.

To me personally what gave it away was when McCain said "Can we go back to the Supreme Court Question" when Rick Warren had not even asked that question to Senator McCain.

beowulf said...

Nate, good job covering this regardless of what some have said. The only reason anyone would react badly to this information is that they, deep down, know that it probably hints at something awful. Otherwise, they would just shrug it off. We will never know if McCain cheated, but having the subject on your page is a good thing. People will decide for themselves (and that is what these negative posters really fear).

MATT J. H. said...

Lets not smear Rick Warren yet. It is possible he thought McCain was in a room somewhere, came at the last minute, I certainly do not want to impune a man of god before we had facts. Guys like Rick Warren don't risk tarnishing their reputation purposefully, and this thing has potential to get much bigger.

As for Mccain, I myself posted last night how good McCain was, many said it was the best they had seen in years, and he was politically great, right on message which McCain never does.

All this being taken into consideration, McCain showing up late and having the opportunity to hear the questions, that he seemed so well prepared for, goes to the heart of the McCain integrity campaign. I do not believe this is something McCain would do 3 months ago, but we all have seen the change in tone since Rove got his hands all over this campaign, and this absolutely something Rove would do, and even plan to do.

How many have said that McCain has relented to the Rove disciples running McCain's campaign and McCain had surrendered his integrity to win the presidency. McCain suring up evangelical support may well make the difference in winning this election.

Absolutely a Karl Rove Trained Operative would resort to this, and YES, John McCain would agree to this given how he has abandoned his principles to win this election.

Obama must get to the bottom of this and apply pressure to push this story for answers. If it can be proved McCain cheated, he is done. I know we are a long way from proof of that, but this has the potential to be huge.

realistxxx said...

Keep dreaming, Mule.

This story has legs because many of the punditry called it before any evidence.

Expect them to crow about how clear their crystal balls' are because they could tell even before Warren provided them with the evidence.

What appeared to be a draw or a modest McCain victory now could turn into a loss... again regardless of whether Mac had the Q's.

Virginia Conservative said...

Warren wouldn't risk his book sales by trying to help McCain cheat. Hes too much of a good capitalist.

cowbat friend said...

You crack me up, muley.

realistxxx said...

Agreed, VC. Warren likely didn't even know at the start that McCain wasn't sequestered.

This doesn't mean that MAc didn't get some Q's before.

PeteKent said...

Postede in the Other thread By Mistake . . . .


I am about to redo my map by a hair and most likely will give NV to McC if I see one more poll in his corner.

I think the western boomlet for Obama has faded and the reliably Repub states will revert to form, MT for instance.

Right now I give CO and NM to BO. I have him winning WI, MN and IA, along with NH. McCain win VA, FL and OH. McCain would need both NV and NH to win or just MI. CO plus NV would do it too. Drilling/fear of high home heating prices could tip MN plus WI, but then you have the makings of a landslide.

My current map gives BO 278 EVs, but sees him wobbling in a few key states.

I am about to redo my map by a hair and most likely will give NV to McC if I see one more poll in his corner.

I think the western boomlet for Obama has faded and the reliably Repub states will revert to form, MT for instance.

Right now I give CO and NM to BO. I have him winning WI, MN and IA, along with NH. McCain win VA, FL and OH. McCain would need both NV and NH to win or just MI. CO plus NV would do it too. Drilling/fear of high home heating prices could tip MN plus WI, but then you have the makings of a landslide.

My current map gives BO 278 EVs, but sees him wobbling in a few key states.

Overrated said...

The "McCain must have cheated" line of argument is a tacit admission from the libs that he came off better last night. They are shocked by the success of the opposition and they are bitter and frustrated at the growing possibility of the greatest political miscalculation of all times - the nomination of Barack Obama. It is the equivalent of clanking a Bball off the front rim when driving in for a slam dunk. In a year when the GOP name is trash, the Dems blow the easy one. Can you imagine the resentment and anquish come November. Can you see Keith O and Soros gnashing their teeth in rage?

John Nail said...

And we found Bigfoot in GA this weekend..from the NYT

"Nicolle Wallace, a spokeswoman for Mr. McCain, said on Sunday night that Mr. McCain had not heard the broadcast of the event while in his motorcade and heard none of the questions. “The insinuation from the Obama campaign that John McCain, a former prisoner of war, cheated is outrageous,” Ms. Wallace said."

filistro said...

Ah, the Mule just galloped in and called Nate "filth".

Now we get to watch Mule run through his entire standard perf.

1.) spew invective wildly in all directions

2.) settle down a bit and begin to talk issues

3.) flare up again when called on bad behavior and blame others for their ignorant provocation

4.) Acquiesce to criticism. Tug forelock, say "aw shucks" and rub toe in dirt.

5.) Apologize charmingly, promise never to do it again

Lather. Rinse. Repeat.

beowulf said...

Overrated - Or, it could be that we saw a man answer questions unbelievably quickly in the first half of his interview with the pastor, so much so that the pastor made jokes about the speed and having to go into bonus rounds, and then the man almost instantly slowed down in answers for the remainder of the interview. That says nothing about how well McCain did in answering, just the speed of the answers.

Craig said...

Warren definitely isn't at fault here except to the extent he didn't make sure the agreed rules were followed. For anyone that thinks Warren was in cahoots with McCain or something similarly sinister ask yourself how little sense it would make for Warren to out himself. We only know about this because Warren said it on CNN.

realistxxx said...

Overrated said...

The "McCain must have cheated" line of argument is a tacit admission from the libs that he came off better last night.

Silly Rabbit, it is not that he must have cheated, it is that he might have cheated.

Obama did what he had to do last night and McCain did too.

Oops, now the story is that McCain may have cheated. Take off your neocon goggles and accept the reality that this is not good for Mac.

It doesn't matter whether he did or he didn't. The story is that he might have and there is evidence to be OVER analyzed.

bellalu0 said...

Obama actually SAID he had cheated. A direct quote from the transcript below:


Answer:
"I CHEATED A LITTLE BIT. I ACTUALLY LOOKED AT THIS AHEAD OF TIME AND I THINK IT IS A -- I THINK IT'S A GREAT IDEA."

Rudy said...

Wait a minute -- all of the early chatter was that this wasn't a debate, that no one cares, and that Obama did fine. Now it's Watergate?

Elephant in the room: Nate's probability of Obama winning percentage has now dropped from 70% to 58% in the last month, with the PPP OH results hitting the numbers tomorrow. Barely a tooth gnash from the proletariat, just more vitriol.

Jordan and Bacon said...

“The insinuation from the Obama campaign that John McCain, a former prisoner of war, cheated is outrageous,” Ms. Wallace said."

Ms. Wallace doesn't seem to realize he was a former prisoner of war when he cheated on his wife, too.

Virginia Conservative said...

Bellalu-

Warren said on CNN he gave that particular questions (on orphans) ahead of time to Obama and wanted to do the same for McCain, but he wasn't in the building.

Smitty said...

IMHO, Warren may have known McCain was not present when he himself went out to the crowd, but I doubt he knew by the time he and Obama began. I suspect Warren told the truth as he knew it at the time.

McCain has been a professional politician for at least three decades. His answers were similar to a speech he gave in 2000 to evangelicals. I did notice the story last night about a scared prisoner tied in torture ropes was different than what he said last night.

I was a McCain supporter in 2000. Perhaps I have learned too much about him during these past eight years. I am unable to respect or believe him in 2008.

Besides, I'm really tired of having "I was a C student" for a president. Electing "5th from the bottom of the graduating class" as our next president? *shudder* I'd like a president who remembers mom using food stamps, who earned scholarships, who actually studied foreign relations as an undergrad and who taught constitutional law for 12 years.

Besides, I lived in HI in the 80's and the 90's. It is refreshing to see the possibility of the Aloha spirit in the White House. Oops...forgot...you'all believe the Aloha spirit is elitism. Tsk, Tsk.

Mule Rider said...

realistxxx,

When it takes off and lands much beyond the borders of 538 and DailyKos, then I'll think it has legs. Until then, pissing right into a category 5 hurricane.

Realistically, as the point was beaten to death over and over, McCain had the "ace in the hole" of knowing this audience was tailor made for him. He can go in, give some of the same old "stump" speech talking points that Republicans generally do on social issues, and he's mostly golden. Obama is the one who has more question marks (in his voting record and ideology) that would likely work at odds with such an overwhelmingly evangelical crowd. It was only natural for him to seem "less-prepared" as he was trying to craft his answers to both share who he is and reach out to some of them yet not meander too far away from his base's positions.

And I'll second what Overrated said, for Obama's campaign to make a big issue of this would be to concede they got badly outplayed. And if nothing turns up, then the double-whammy comes when they're painted as sore losers. If McCain (or Warren) were less than ingenuous, there better be a smoking gun, and it better be incontrovertible in that it benefitted McCain. Otherwise, it would blow up in BHO's face.

realistxxx said...

Rudy,

If anyone thought that an unknown, young, black man was going to walk away with this election, they need more of Cindy's meds.

MATT J. H. said...

McCain was on his game last night, the crowd at CNN were very impressed as were I. I watched McCain at town halls and in the republican primary debates andlast night he was better than I'd ever seen him, as if he had been coached.

Now we learn he conveniently showed up 1/2 late, and was answering and referring to questions that Warren had not asked. This thing will never be proven, but anyone who's paid close attention knows that McCain drastically over performed last night, and now we know why.

The Obama campaign has already said they are not going near this. (Of course not, that just would break Obama's delicate moral code) I'd bet the Clinton camp would be on this like white on rice. They'd have McCain looking like Karl Roves long lost twin brother back to reclaim the mantle for his fallen kin. Obama should get someone to push this away from his campaign. And check out the cross story. If that thing is false, i'd go after McCain for not actually remembering what was real and what was not, how could he be president? He's a great guy, but people get old and simply are not as sharp, happens to everyone. Hillary would.

Mule Rider said...

filistro,

LMAO. Now that was funny. You called me out (accurately).

But a "conspiracy" article like this is what I thrive on...come on, you gotta give me that?! Right?

Nate's meandering into some alleged misgivings at a back-and-forth between McCain and Obama and Pastor Rick Warren.

I have to call bull shit when I see it, and this is it. As I said, when this stretches beyond here and DailyKos, it has something. Until then, it's not worth two farts in a woodshed.

John Nail said...

Rick Warren is not the issue here. He gave each one a couple questions up front and admits it. His 'security' around the "cone of silence" was lacking.

The issue is NOT whether McCain heard anything personally - they have given him plausible deniability to this in my prior post.

Simply - Did anyone in or out of his campaign monitor the broadcast via computer, TV, radio or Internet and then transmit any information about the questions or answers in the interview via any written, oral, audio, video or electronic means prior to his appearance on stage with Rick Warren - either in his car or in the period he was sequestered before he stepped on stage?

Simple question - simple answer for the man who stayed behind in Hanoi. In those days the answer would be "Hell No"...today I am afraid it will be "Yes" which says it all.

Nate said...

Mule,

The story has hit tomorrow's New York Times, for what it's worth.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/18/us/politics/18mccain.html?ref=politics