As Sean has been writing in recent days, it has become increasingly apparent that the McCain campaign has no intention of matching the Obama campaign's formidable presence on the ground. This becomes especially clear upon reviewing the status of field operations in each state.
The table below represents my best estimate of the number of field offices that each campaign presently has open in each state, or plans to open in the immediate future. I say "estimate" because there is no hard-and-fast source for this information. Each campaign has listing of its field offices on the respective state-by-state pages within its website (Obama example) (McCain example), however, in certain cases, the offices appear to be relics of the primary campaign that have since shut down. In states where the number of offices appeared to be dubious, or the listing did not appear to have been updated recently, I spot-checked the numbers by randomly calling a couple of offices in each state. It appears that all or almost all of the McCain campaign's offices in California are inactive. But this was a larger problem for Obama, where offices in a large number of states that were important in the primaries, like Kentucky or any number of Super Tuesday states, have long since been shut down.
My best estimate of the current state of the ground game follows. States are ordered by their current rankings in the Tipping Point metric:
Overall, I count 336 offices for Obama and 101 for McCain.
What's more, the overwhelming majority of McCain offices aren't really branded as McCain offices. Rather, they are so-called 'Victory Offices' that are operated by the local Republican party in that state and which serve all Republican candidates in that state. Some fairly substantial degree of coordination between the national campaign and the state party apparatuses is inevitable in any Presidential campaign. But in Obama's case, it is Chicago that is driving the bus (to the extent that we'll probably begin to hear some complaints from local party officials), whereas the McCain campaign is effectively competing for resources and attention with other Republican candidates.
The state-by-state distributions are also interesting. McCain, who has spent almost nothing on advertising in Florida, is instead very heavily invested on the ground there with 35 offices, perhaps reflecting the fact that Florida has one of the nation's best and most effective state Republican party operations. The other states where McCain has multiple offices open are: Michigan (11), Ohio (9), Minnesota (7), Missouri (7), Wisconsin (6), Virginia (6), Iowa (6) and New Hampshire (3). By contrast, the McCain campaign has just one office open in key states like Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and (somewhat shockingly) Pennsylvania, and no offices open in some second-tier swing states like Indiana and Montana.
The Obama campaign is not really running a 50-state campaign. Instead, they appear to be running an active operation in 22 states: Ohio (33 offices open), Virginia (28), Missouri (27), Florida (25), Wisconsin (23), Iowa (23), Michigan (22), New Mexico (18), Pennsylvania (18), Washington (18), New Hampshire (14), Indiana (14), North Carolina (11), Georgia (11), Colorado (10), Minnesota (9), Nevada (6), Oregon (6), Maine (6), Montana (6), North Dakota (4) and Alaska (4). For my money, the large number of offices open in states like Washington and Maine are unnecessarily defensive -- and in Georgia, hopelessly offensive. But generally speaking, the Obama campaign's distribution does a much better job of matching the Tipping Point map.
8.09.2008
Obama Leads Better Than 3:1 in Field Offices
@ 7:20 PM
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Apparently the Republicans have been reduced to denying that some of these offices exist, particularly in Indiana. This is greatly amusing the people who have worked in them. Still, I guess your average Republican stooge never did care very much about reality in America.
Obviously the Republicans will try to match the Democrats in fundraising. If they're not going to spend it on ground game...obviously a lot will go into media buys, but what if the whole point is to siphon a lot of it into consultants' coffers? Kind of a political analog to "Springtime for Hitler" in "The Producers"?
There might also be a clear "secondary" reason for offices in WA, ME, and GA. Their names are Gregoire, Allen, and Martin. Because otherwise there is no reason for them to be there.
(OK...why not other states? Well they are also in AK, NM, CO, MN, NC, OR and VA. Really, the only missing link in my theory is Wicker in MS. But explains not even trying in some place like SD, which otherwise would be "3rd tier" Obama state.)
I don't think you're right about Georgia. If AA turnout is really mobilized, and Barr gets a significant count of votes, then its very much in play.
Also, Georgia has had a MASSIVE registration operation that I've seen first hand.
Well it looks like Barack Obama is putting faith in the groundwork like he did the primary. Let's see if it works again. I'm inclined to think it probably will.
Thank you for compiling and checking those numbers. Interesting stuff...Especially on McCain's non-competitiveness in PA. To think it might not be a major battleground this year.
i think that one of the things that we fail to do is that we don't account for the activities of the RNC. John mccain is not gonna run the ground game. his campaign is to be focused on the media part of the campaign. you know, ads and the brass-knuckles campaigning against obama.
They have set up many accounts and "victory committees" (obama is trying to catch up but he's not really competing right now with the DNC) so they can channel huge amounts of money into the state parties and especially the RNC.
So, i think we might be looking at the wrong picture. mccain's efforts do account for something, but we need to know what the RNC is doing right now, what the state of things are compared to the DNC and whether their work in 2004 is up to date and will just need be tapped. I think that as we did for the fundraising numbers, what counts isn't always Obama vs. Mccain. But rather Obama and DNC vs. Mccain and RNC.
discuss.
McCain has no offices in Indiana or Montana? Well, if he loses there we'll know one reason why. And if he wins them it'll turn out to have been a clever decision.
Part 2 of my half-baked theory posting:
It's interesting the 4 real governor races are in WA, MO, NC, and IN. Same list again.
The besides Wicker in MS, the next step would be to help Landrieu in LA or Lunsford in KY, and those 3 are probably just too far afield from the presidential race and/or "less likely to flip" that it's Obama campaign can't justify helping out there (as they can in ME or WA).
Nate:
Obama has an office in Vermont and at least 2 campaign staff. So if he has an office here, I'm sure there are offices in a number of the other states that you marked as zero.
Interesting that McCain is playing so much more defense in FL than OH
If you are including Republican Party offices in McCain's total, then Obama's total should be higher. I just spent the afternoon canvassing in Burlington NC, in Alamance County. Alamance doesn't have an Obama office but they have an Obama staffer working out of the Burlington Democratic Party office.
Washington State has to be in support of Gregoire, who barely defeated Rossi in the last election.
Oregon now has 9 Obama offices. The Medford office has it's formal grand opening today, though the phone lines have been up a week.
McCain, indeed, only has one here.
Lupercal,
those numbers do include the RNC offices. Pay attention please.
"All politics is local". I do not see it as a weakness, but a strength that McCain is coordinating his field offices with the local party. Obama, as usual, seems to be going it on his own. This is the tone deaf way that the Obama national campaign continues to behave out in the field, laying down the law and not building bridges to the locals, many of whom they are no doubt suspicious of, especially in places like OH and IN.
It remains to be seen how successful this ground game will be. I will grant its efficacy on the margins, but unless a state is close, the effort is not going to make a difference and the strategy is expensive and fraught with risk: thousands of surrogates hanging around out there any one of which could have a microphone and a camera shoved into his or her face and made to embarrass the candidate.
Obama is still suffused with the success of his caucus campaign that many credit as being the primary reason why he got the nomination. Obama's caucus organization in the absence of any Clinton effort whatsoever contributed mightily to that string of victories after Super Tuesday that began the drumbeat that never stopped that Hillary should get out of the race and that she had lost. Until there were elections in Oh and TX, but even then the MSM meme became: It's too late.
We will not select a single elector by the Caucus system this fall. Obama has the cash and the brass to pursue anything that might work. I doubt if it will do him much good.
Perhaps if a state is tied on Election Day, but otherwise the number of people you can motivate by these efforts won't overcome a secular advantage on characteristics and issues.
Brittany and Paris are far more effective in their way than 1000s of Birkenstock wearing kids and vets of the 60s protests fanning across neighborhoods and shilling for Obama.
"but otherwise the number of people you can motivate by these efforts won't overcome a secular advantage on characteristics and issues."
Well, I suppose it's a good thing that Obama holds such an advantage as well.
"If you are including Republican Party offices in McCain's total, then Obama's total should be higher. I just spent the afternoon canvassing in Burlington NC, in Alamance County. Alamance doesn't have an Obama office but they have an Obama staffer working out of the Burlington Democratic Party office."
well, yes. undoubtedly obama's numbers will go up. But the point im trying to make is that the republican party has a built-in advantage in ground game. built from years and years and it culminated in 2004.
so, im a bit worried that once you tabulate both parties and both candidates infrastructure, mccain would achieve parity or even surpass obama.
one more point is that whatever happened, the democrats we always going to need a decidedly superior organization so they could match up with the republicans. now, we're lucky enough that we've a candidate who's really aware of the importance of investing in field operations. but i'd say that there's still a slim chance that right now, they're just getting to parity with the republicans.also let us not underestimate the power and institutional strength of the republican states parties (like indiana). they've been in there for years and years. they know where to go get votes. they know where they might have potential votes (i would think), and hoosiers are more familiar with them. now it's a brilliant move by obama that they don't just ship volunteers into the states and let them fend for themselves at the peril that they aren't aware of the cultural subtext of a specific area. they are, i think the gold standard in organizing, but im afraid that they're still in the inchoative state of their game right now. i worked wonders in iowa because everyone was just building their games at the same time, so obama's superiority just prevailed, and we have reasons to be glad the GOP isn't taking the ground game seriously enoug right now, but we'll have a run for our money, i think.
Ape; I marvel at your level of overconfidence.
On issue after issue, McCain is now seen as leading or gaining on Obama. All that remains for him to do is paint Obama as unacceptable and to spend the latter portion of the campaign making the positive case for his candidacy and he will likely surprise you all.
Right now, I give the nod to Obama. But it is a dangerous strategy to try and win by sitting on your lead for the second half.
McBush/McSame is not enough.
No to drilling and yes to higher taxes seems not to wash.
Even Iraw now is turning away from the Obama's "lets just get out and forget about winning" strategy.
McCain may yet strip the ball and run it all the way back down field for a game winning TD.
"Blogger MATT J. H. said...
Lupercal,
those numbers do include the RNC offices. Pay attention please."
um. i don't see any evidence of that. we're talking about the obama and mccain's campaigns' investments. and you will agree that the gop has a built-in advantage in field organizing. i think if we study the relative strength of a party's state organization historically, and more importantly in 2004, we might get a better idea of where things stand. of course, these organizations aren't optimized right now, especially if the GOP is resting on its laurels but i think anyone is arguing that these organizations they've built somehow spontaneously vanished and they have to start all over.
I have a question with regards to Obama's on-the-ground advantage: Is it fully represented in the polls?
Maybe this digs at the more obvious question of what exactly it is that a field office does... as you can probably tell, I'm a complete noob.
One other question that occurs to me is whether the operations in these states are effectively isolated from one another. It seems to me that since so much of this work must be via telephone, that responsibilities might sometimes spill over state lines. That is, if Obama decides to pull out of Indiana, does the office close? or merely start adding their efforts to the Ohio effort?
Lupercal said,
um. i don't see any evidence of that
See labeling on graphic. It reads:
"McCain/GOP Field offices vs. Obama field Offices
How much clearer can he be.
umm...pete. Barack intends to do the lower taxes via lower and middle class but raise them on the above 250,000 as shown by many indepedant studies. I can also tell you offshore drilling is something seen as a temporary solution while finding alternate resources to fuel our future. Barack may have lost the advantage for now but he's regaining it. Republicans are seen as short-term energy, democrats are seen as long-term.
Most people realize that Iraq will win or lose the war there, not us. We're about as popular in the middle east as Geogre Bush is in America. Our presence isn't helping politically.
Yeah, Obama sure is a very charismatic leader with a lot of very, very , very dedicated followers.
...and that's a bad thing how VC? I thought the ability to lead lots of people was well...a good thing. Am I wrong?
Well, David Koresh fit all those characteristics, too. So it depends on where you're being led.
With Obama? He doesn't really say. It could be right off a cliff!
"Right now, I give the nod to Obama. But it is a dangerous strategy to try and win by sitting on your lead for the second half."
i would rather argue that it is you that have the rather uncontainable overconfidence (shall we say arrogance?) i think your argument is fundamentally flawed, but even under the most optimistic assessment that you've made, it can be argued that obama needs to let mccain get back into the game, compete and win some battles in order to win the election.
That was the downfall of clinton. Even though at times she failed to put policies papers out at first, the media always deemed them better. and she caught no flak from sometimes being generous with already prescribed popular proposals. And because she was winning every single battle, and she built such an unsurmountable lead of at times 30 points, the race turned inevitably into a referendum on her. So, obama has to give the impression that mccain is competing in order to let him be thoroughly vetted. (whenever that happens, obama wins because mccain is a gaffe-machine). so right now because obama is perceived to be so superior in every area, mccain is getting a free pass. Now democrats have built in advantage on the issues. if by G-d mccain came up with a superior proposal (and with just 5 full time policy staffers, i don't see that happening), obama could just adopt them, get some flak for flip-flopping. obama produces a video of mccain himself flip-flopping on the exact same issue (Law of Bush/mccainism: for every issues, there is at the very least two diametrically opposed mccain positions) and obama get the advantage. So, obama needs to create a safety net under himself for when necessary, he can bypass the msm and get to the people, and for when comes election time, he can get people to the polls. hence the investments and emphasis in field organizing.
"I have a question with regards to Obama's on-the-ground advantage: Is it fully represented in the polls?"
Not yet. There's some feeling by some Obama supporters around here that it'll never fully show up in polls and Obama's likely to outperform his polls by 2-3% on election day. Personally, I'm skeptical of that.
But in terms of right now, there are two aspects of the "ground game" that won't show up in today's polls. First is registering voters. All polls are of either registered or likely voters, the latter of which is simply a subset of the first. If you're not registered, you won't be polled. As people get registered over time, though, they should start getting polled, which presumably could translate into a modest pro-Obama trend in polls over time.
The second goal that should work its way into the polls is persuading undecided voters to vote for Obama. Of course, this is what media advertising is also supposed to do and everything else, but, again, if people switch to Obama due to campaign workers knocking on their doors that should start to show up in the polls as it happens.
So now I understand why we haven't seen any McCain ground game in Pa. There is none. I was working today at a music event that allowed both parties access to the festival crowd. It is in a rural/suburban highly republican area. Well it used to be.
We registered 117 new democrats, 37 republicans changing to dems.
They? 18 total no switches.
When desperation hits the GOP, this is one of the first states they pull out of.
VC, the difference between the two is that Barack Obama doesn't think that he's a prophet, let alone the final prophet...nor did he marry many women. etc. etc. etc.
The comparison doesn't match.
"See labeling on graphic. It reads:
"McCain/GOP Field offices vs. Obama field Offices
How much clearer can he be."
I am acutely aware of that. Hence me saying that these efforts aren't occurring in a vacuum. the vestiges of the previous elections and organizations still exist and they account for something. Im not so presumptuous as to advise that you (re)take a quick glance at my previous posts, but im sure it would do us great good in understanding the larger point i was making.
What is the context of these 2008 field office numbers? These numbers don't tell me anything by themselves. How many field offices did Bush and Kerry have nationwide in early August? In the weeks prior to the election? How about in 2000? 1996? 1992? 1988?
I just don't understand how one can write several paragraphs detailing this data with no context whatsoever. Without it, it is meaningless to me.
And in what states are these large amounts of field operations providing a noticable effect in favor of Obama?
Hell, he has all those offices in Missouri yet McCain is only gaining ground there. When was the last time Obama closed the gap in North Carolina or Georgia?
I think this is definately a case of diminishing returns.
GLHF:
on taxes the devil is in the details and Obama's plan is full of enough holes and there are enuf different kid of taxes that the drumbeat that he is in favor of higher taxes as a general proposition is easily sustained. Worse, Americans realize that raising taxes on anybody during economic downtimes is a bad thing. Obama will be seen as the far riskier on the tax issue and as pocket book issues go it is the most potent.
On drilling, only McCain offers a comprehensive solution including alternative energy, drilling nuclear clean coal. Obama only offers tire guauges and being green. On this he is seriously out of step and is badly in need of a deus ex machina to save himself. Calling the Gang of Ten?
McCain needs no gang -- he has his own forthright clear position that is resonating clearly with the voters and giving the Repubs and himself their best issue.
I will say it is odd that McCain has no field offices in Pennsylvania. It almost makes me wonder if McCain is planning on picking a prominent Pennsylvanian for his veep, with the idea the choice alone could carry the state without needing a large organized effort.
So, what are you saying, VirginiaCon? I don't understand what you're trying to imply. Please repeat it several hundred more times on these message boards and others around the 'internets'
Papa Rove is proud of his little minions. You will be rewarded with your McCainBucks as soon as the rest of the population is 'cleansed'
Pentkent,
I never knew you could drill "nuclear clean coal". Thanks for the insight though.
Today, the Houston Obama HQ became the Coordinated Campaign Office for the Harris County Democratic Party. I'm not sure if there are any Obama field staff still here or not. I do know that there is a very large volunteer organization that is being assimilated into the party apparatus.
Virginia Conservative:
How lucky for us that Obama isn't a real whackjob, you know, a babbling former alcoholic who took the country to war after lying, fabricating evidence and generally abusing the trust of the American people.
As for the attempt by Pete Kent to lie (as usual) about taxes, Obama would cut taxes for people who earn under 250k per year. McCain, on the other hand, is going to cut taxes for millionaires, and do nothing for anyone else.
I guess the question for McCain supporters is: Now that McCain has lost Ohio because of the DHL scandal, A) Can he hold Indiana? and B) what is his EV path to victory??
moondancer, he hasn't "lost" Ohio. Ohio is a relatively conserative rustbelt state. There's several problems for Obama to win it. First, his race. Rustbelt racism causes a lot of people there to see him as that incompentant black guy to fill the quota. All of the talk about the "first black president" reminds them of it. Second, He's liberal and they're center-right. Obviously, That doesn't help. Third, He's called Pennslyani small towners bitter. While, in my personal experience, that's true...it doesn't help him that Ohio neighbors that state shares a lot of similarities. McCain has had a set back sure but he still has the edge there in my opinion.
glhf
Four million bucks worth of codger and his lobbyist manager shipping 8200 Ohio jobs overseas says otherwise, bub.
"Worse, Americans realize that raising taxes on anybody during economic downtimes is a bad thing. "
a couple of quick points. first of all, most americans but the richest 1% will agree that during economic crutch time, they should get as much of their money as possible. and every respectable organization, including, surprisingly, the msm is blasting maccain for the falsity of the "obama will raise your taxes meme". they even always compare mccain's and obama's tax plans and obama gives 3 times more tax cuts to regular middle class families than mccain. and obama gives less taxcuts to corporations than mccain.
and the bad thing is mccain doesn't have any infrastructure that allows him to bypass the msm, so if the msm is challenging him, he's got a real problem on his hands. also, most americans understand that there has been corporate economic growth over the past 8 years. that's what allowed mccain to say the "fundamentals of the economy are still sound" and "americans have seen great progress over the last 8 years." but they're aware of is that amid all this growth, their financial situation has deteriorated. they work more for less, and they're struggling. so the economy is working, just not for them.
the economy is fundamentally distabilized. you've got the nation's wealth polarized between the corporates, who are getting richer and richer by the day (in 10 days, they make as much as a regular worker does in a year) and the middle class that is shrinking by the hour. they aren't opposed to a rollback of the bush/mccain taxcuts for corporates. they are FOR tax cuts for middle class families.
moondancer-
Please, he hasn't lost Ohio until November the fourth and we all know it.
I'm not a McCain supporter (I'm an independent), but let me answer those:
A: Well the highly sophisticated statistical model says he's got about a 75% chance, so probably yes.
B: Taking his base + FL, VA, MI or OH, NV or NH, and CO seems the most likely to me.
Look, Moondancer, I hope you're right on this one as I support Barack Obama myself but I have half of my family that lives in the rustbelt. That's how a lot of them think. Obviously, that scandal helps him in that regard but he'll need a bit more help in my opinion.
GOTV works. Boots on the ground works. In 2000 Gore lost the recount partly because Rove's thugs started the riot at the Miami-Dade recount site. Proving motivated troops make a difference. In 2004 the difference in Ohio was 120,000 votes. If Kerry had a GOTV in Ohio like Obama has now, 33 office to 9, AND the advantage of holding all of the statewide offices, we would be discussing Kerry's second term now, and Iraq would not be an issue because we would have left by now.
And the Republicans are NOT in lockstep with McSame. Got a letter from my congressman today, Connie Mack from Southwest Florida. He is FOR drilling in ANWR, and only for offshore drilling near Florida if it is approved by voters here in a ballot. So it is not the wedge issue they believe. Our economy is dependent on the beaches here, and no "wrinkly old man" from an oil dry state like Arizona will tell us what to do on this issue.
eponymous
Answering B) with Ohio being part of the equation means either you didn't read the question or are as confused as McCain.
And what hat you pulled 75pct out of was not worth the quarter spent.
Maybe it's best to watch the roll out of the Obama ads in Ohio, then resume this conversation.
Well, are yoy talking about Ohio.
George W Bush won Ohio in 2004 for 120.000 votes.
In cuyahoga county (includes Cleveland) Kerry get 448.486 votes (66.6%) and Bush 221.606 votes (32.9%). If Obama wins this county for 70%-30% and in Cincinnati the result was the same, he has very good chances to win the state if the rest of the state remaing same as 2004.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_Ohio,_2004
Kerry "lost" Ohio in 2004.
Mmmmmm, that´s true if we don´´t count the fraud.
http://www.rawstory.com/news/2006/NYT_Bob_Herbert_Kerry_almost_certainly_0612.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_United_States_election_voting_controversies
Austin (TX) has a full time Obama staffer and a coordinated campaign office with a large and growing number of volunteers. Houston also has a coordinated campaign office, and Obama recently hired a San Antonio attorney to head the state campaign. There is a coordinated campaign office in San Antonio as well. The state has, or will soon have, about 15 full time Obama staff working primarily out of coordinated campaign offices around the state.
During primaries, campaigns cannot be run out of coordinated offices, for obvious reasons. Once the primaries ended, many campaign offices were closed across the country and merged with coordinated campaign offices, which operate more efficiently, and offer advantages both up and down the ticket.
moondancer-
Now I don't enjoy being insulting, but this opportunity is simply too ripe.
You don't really know where you are, do you? Or what this website is about? Why don't you go to the top, click on "FAQ", and read it. Then look on the sidebar, the part that says "IN" and look at "win percentage." Do we get it now?
Oh, and also, the meaning of the word "or" seems tragically to escape you. As in, MI or OH. So even if I had conceded that Ohio is in the bag for Obama (which I didn't) McCain could still win with MI instead.
Please don't bother to reply unless you want to concede that you do not hold the monopoly on truth. Nobody does.
More from 2004 Ohio controverses.
http://whatreallyhappened.com/WRHARTICLES/2004votefraud_ohio.html?q=2004votefraud_ohio.html
The effort in Washington State by Obama is being spent mostly for Obama but for Governor Gregoire as well through the coordinated campaign that Obama has taken charge of. Our statewide primary is happening as we speak, and Obama offices are working on Gregoire's campaign. So, Obama's effort in Washington is multi-purpose.
Those offices are also shared space with the local democrats.
Please, see that video.
It´s a blog in spanish but the only important is the youtube video.
http://elbarajas.blogspot.com/2006/07/fraude-electrnico-en-ohio.html
Pete Kent,
Obama, like McCain, supports "clean" coal and has since he began campaigning. I know this because "clean" coal was one of the original things I didn't like about Obama because guess what, CLEAN COAL DOESN'T EXIST and you're a fool if you think otherwise. "Clean" coal is just taking out coal's pollutants at an earlier stage in the energy production process, and guess what, those pollutants aren't just going to disappear.
Both candidates support of "clean" coal is pandering, pure and simple.
I live in Washington State and from what I have seen, the field offices here are entirely devoted to helping re-elect Governor Gregoire, and helping with Congressional and local candidates. I expect that the same is true of offices in some of the other "unlikely" states.
These turnout ratios really aren't truly accounted for in these polls I would say. It can change as much as 5 percentage points. I remember Ed Rendell said if it wasn't for Obama's GOTV which he witnessed first hand that Barack would of lost PA by 16 points and REALLY would of had a game changer.
A practical question: how do you count this - http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/politics/5857063.html - 15 paid staffers to be sent to Texas but working ?where?
Is that an office? More than one? None?
This is a good news/bad news situation. From the July numbers, the RNC+McCain had a cash on-hand-advantage vs. DNC+Obama which will likely increase this month due to the much higher burn rate of Obama. If it were October, these numbers would be indicative of a strong Obama win but the RNC could easily open 400 offices in the next two months. They certainly did in 2004.
I don't know why everyone things OH is in the bag. Obama is going to underperform Kerry significantly in the counties that border Kentucky and WV, and even a 70-30% split in Cuyahoga may not be enough (74-26% would be but that is asking an awful lot).
One other bit of bad news, the polls showed that Clinton had a slim 4% lead in the polls (notably the Quinnipiac)or even a TIE )Zogby) on March 3rd and Obama got his doors blown off by more than 10% the next day. This is one state where I believe he will underperform based upon the polls.
No, the pollutants don't disappear, but they're solid and buried instead of blown into the atmosphere as ash, so it's an improvement.
If there's one industry that Obama is beholden to, it's coal. Interesting that McCain doesn't bring that up.
Anyhow, on the Ohio fraud case, here's some more info from Fox News:
http://www.foxnews.com/printer_friendly_wires/2007Mar13/0,4675,ElectionWorkersSentence,00.html
There's actually quite a bit of evidence that Cuyahoga was seriously undercounted, and that if they had been hand counted the county then Kerry would have won (it would have stayed 2/3 Kerry, but a lot more votes). What the two pollsters did was select ballots for testing the counting machines that they knew in advance would work, since the state law is for a recount first you test the machines with random ballots, and if it's spitting out good ones then you have to do the recount by hand.
Much more informative links, just a bit more biased as well.
http://www.commondreams.org/views07/0320-23.htm
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x7673
At any rate, the official turnout was unimaginably low in Cuyahoga, in spite of long lines and a very high estimated turnout based on those line. With the head of the Ohio Republican Party not being in charge of the Cuyahoga County elections this year, at least all we have to worry about is Diebold "losing" 100,000 votes in the county, like they did in 2006.
Matthew, the Ohio fraud was terrible.
Why this case was ignored?. Why?.
Another video from Ohio fraud.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OXPOzRjslIw
Oh, and for Ohio being "in the bag", DHL was one of the biggest employers in the Dayton/Cincinnati area. This deal is closing the DHL hub, which directly kills about 3,000 jobs in the area but indirectly kills many thousands more, as there's no more need for storage, truckers, etc. This is going to kill the Wilmington airport.
Until this became a big deal, I would have expected McCain to take the state. But it IS a big deal in the most Republican city in the state. The rural counties don't matter that much- this isn't Kentucky. Most of Ohio's population lives in or near a dozen major metropolitan areas. The rural counties can't touch those.
"I remember Ed Rendell said if it wasn't for Obama's GOTV which he witnessed first hand that Barack would of lost PA by 16 points and REALLY would of had a game changer."
"the polls showed that Clinton had a slim 4% lead in the polls (notably the Quinnipiac)or even a TIE )Zogby) on March 3rd and Obama got his doors blown off by more than 10% the next day."
You know, readers of this site should (a) be familiar with RealClearPolitics archive of polling results (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/dem_results.html) and (b) should know better than to cherry-pick individual anecdotes/polls without putting them in context.
Obama actually under-performed the polls in PA by about 3 points. There were only two polls in the month of April showing Clinton with a 16-pt lead in PA, neither of which were within the last week before the election. So, unless Rendell's arguing that Obama's massive GOTV successfully offset Clinton's GOTV, it sounds to me like he's just talking out of his a**.
As for Ohio, yes Obama under-performed the RCP poll average by about 3 points. But his performance wasn't a total shock. SurveyUSA, PPP, Suffolk, and Ohio Poll showed Clinton leading Ohio by 9-12 points in the week leading up to that primary, and, in fact, SurveyUSA got not only the margin but the percentages for both Clinton and Obama right (54-44).
"No to drilling and yes to higher taxes seems not to wash"
Aw "Pete Kent", can't you do better than just lie? You do not reason well.
You did see how a Republican lost in a primary for pandering to Big Oil?
Also, "Pete Kent" did you see the Gallup poll where windfall taxes on oil companies polled higher than drilling?
What is McCain to do when he loses his only single issue of "drill now"?
Is the entire Obama campaign based on the model that they used to secure the nomination?
As noted in Nate's post, both campaigns had offices for the primaries that are now closed. But, when mentioning Obama he wrote, "...this was a larger problem for Obama, where offices in a large number of states that were important in the primaries, like Kentucky...have been shut down."
This is where the problem lies. The campaign consistently outnumbered Clinton in the number of field offices set up for the primaries. In the case of the late primaries, by wide margins. Also, the campaign consistently outspent Clinton on the airwaves in those primaries. Yet, Clinton secured primary wins in Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, Indiana, West Virginia, Kentucky, and (most surprisingly) South Dakota. And as most here will recall, Clinton won seven of the ten largest states.
The late results may have been more than just the usual last minute jitters. Clinton had a decided disadvantage in media coverage, suffering through a constant drumbeat to get out of the race.
If the Obama campaign is content to apply the model they used for the primaries - with small modifications - for the general, they are either very brilliant or very foolish.
Where some see an impressive organization, others may see the creation of a large overhead that may drain critical resources needed in key battleground states if the race is exceedingly close.
Think about it: does the campaign really need 14 offices in New Hampshire or 18 in New Mexico? How much money is being spent to staff those offices? For that matter, is it really cost-effective to have 28 offices in Virginia or 27 in Missouri?
When the Obama campaign opened their initial 20 offices in Virginia, they claimed they needed that number to accomodate the 10,000 volunteers in the state. About a week later, the campaign's website announced the creation of the "Virginia Sister City Program", an effort to recruit out-of-state volunteers to assist in staffing the offices. But if they had to open the offices to accommodate all their volunteers, why did they in turn have to recruit others from other states to come in?
Like I said, they're either very brilliant or very foolish.
I knew I had recognized PeteKent's name from somewhere. He used to post on Slate's The Fray. Here is a sample of one of his posts:
Don't count HRC out yet. She has a June surprise in the works. google the names Larry Sinclair and Donald Young. It seems Obama has Jennifer Flowers (sorta) / Vince Foster problem.
So yeah. He's a troll.
RSN South,
Don't you think that might have a lot to do with the fact he had to start campaigning for the general election when those primaries came up?
VC-
What the hell has happened to you? You used to have smart points, but now you're comparing Obama to Koresh and Hitler? I liked the old VC. The new one is on the express train to Iggyville .
Nate, great stuff as always, but I have one quibble. I think Obama's big presence in Maine is tremendous. He knows that he is going to win the state comfortably, but his campaign also sees the Senate race as winnable. Right now Collins is up by probably 10, but if Obama can help Allen close the gap and also drive up his own ultimate margin in the state, maybe he can carry Allen over the finish line.
I have no problem with this, and think it is the exact right thing to do. I think Collins will win in the end, but it is very wrong for Dems to give up on Allen given the state's dynamics and the likelihood that Obama will win it by double digits.
RSN South:
RE: Too much overhead - The Obama campaign has something called the Obama Fellowship, a non-paid organizer position and also the Obama intern program. I don't have any stats/money numbers but I would hedge a bet that says many (most?) of the people working in these offices are doing it for free or for donuts, coffee, and cigarettes.
THIS is perfect example of why the MSM such as the NY Times and the Washington Post are dead.
Original investigative legwork.
Great analysis.
Nate is great.
Pinch should be firing 1/2 of his staff over this.
So, I just moved to South Carolina but as stated here there is no office here. I believe that there are plenty of African Americans and Hispanics here than I and others could register but there is no official involvement here. Also, when I go to barackobama.com the info on the SC page is all from the primary here, showing offices that I guess were here then. How can I get involved on an official level with other volunteers? I am only 22 so have only been involved in one other campaign before (Kerry, obviously) and I was at a university then in Michigan so there was plenty of resources and others to work with.
Too much overhead - well, I was curious so I asked an Obama staffer what "paid" meant. Paid, for him, was mileage, prepaid cell phone, inexpensive meals and lodging IF the campaign could not find a supporter who had a spare bedroom or couch to share.
Kris - on the Obama website, select "Volunteer" in the box on the upper right of the main page. Fill it out. Someone from the campaign will respond. I received emails and telephone calls.
You can also search "groups" to find supporters in South Carolina. For example, Charleston, SC had a big registration drive today.
Nate, a technical challenge:
Aggregate all such data and comparable metrics (such as spending on ads), assume for the sake of the argument that the Obama campaign is fully rational, uses a 538 methodology and follows a tipping point concept equivalent to yours.
The challenge: to reverse-engineer what the campaign's internal polls are like. (Provide them an hypothetical weight and weight them together with public polls - remember we assume perfect rationalty).
Even trying to do this should be fun.
I think you guys are missing the point with the field office issue....Obama's focus is not only winning the presidency but gaining as many Democratic Senator and Congressman as possible......
Right now 1/2 the focus of the Obama campaign in EVERY STATE is helping those down the ticket because 1/2 the focus is voter registration. I think the campaign is going to give 5-7 points NATIONALLY to all the dems running (including Obama himself) with these new voters.
Another thing is that the amount of offices in a given state are irrelevent. Look Obama has 2 million volunteers nationwide. In the weeks after the convention this will grow to 4 million volunteers, and the week of the election it will be 6-10 million. These people will either be coordianted by the website (phoning people from these lists) or will coordinate themselves. Groups that volunteered in the primary will knock on doors in their neighborhood, make calls, have events. There is an Obama presnece in every state even without a physical presence of an office. Some people are coordinated by staff members at national level, other by features on the site like calling voters, and other coordinating themself.
Another thing is the GOTV effort is huge for Obama, and as a consequence helps those down the ticket...if Dems turn out at a higher rate, it helps everyone.
It might not be an official (i.e. funded) "field office," but Obama has a significant volunteer office operating in Palo Alto, California. It has remained open and active since the primary, and is highly organized at this point. Check it out: www.sv4obama.com. Can anyone imagine McCain volunteers maintaining this sort of presence on their own (and paying their own bills from donations)?
I wonder how many similar volunteer Obama offices remain from the primary season -- whether as organized as the Silicon Valley office, or just existing as a phone tree of sorts.
CO has 14, PA has 26
It seems a little early to get too heavily surprised by this. Obaama is getting a jump on McCain, but that doesn't mean that after the convention he doesn't open a large number of offices once the money pours in.
I saw some discussion of taxes and all of them started with the same premise, more taxes are bad. But, that seems to be fairly inaccurate. With the current scenario more taxes on anyone in the country rich or poor (I understand Obama and McCain both disagree with me) would help improve the value of the dollar, which in turn would improve the economy. Also it seems fairly irresponsible for any tax cuts when our debt is crushing the value of our currency and our economy. Public and Private debt is a major source of our economic woes, why should we try to make them worse?
Morgan,
I have never heard that raising taxes would increase the strength of the U.S. Dollar.
The U.S. Dollar just had the strongest single day jump in eight years. Was there a massive tax increase that I missed?
The Ohio-DHL issue caught my attention because the reclusive David Plouffe spoke about it. He usually avoids media attention but maybe the internal polling shows that there is a potential for a significant advantage. There is also a radio ad about that deal running in Ohio. Not a big negative TV ad, but a sneaky radio message - so the Obama camapaign goes negative there, but not so obvious.
It seems that regarding organisation, Florida is the Republicans´ Virginia - and since they feel safe there they don´t spend anything on ads. We´ll see how that turns out. Pete "guilty pleasure" Kent said before that it´s not important to get people excited 3 months before the election, but on the week before... I believe you cannot "cook" enthusiasm like that, especially not with a candidate like McCain. Their campaign seems to have a top-down approach. Statements from the candidate himself and massive TV ads shall generate the necessary excitement, whereas the Obama campaign, at least at the moment, concentrates on ground work. You could also argue that organised people are much more "crisis-resistant". Once you´re so involved in a campaign you don´t give up just because of a statement out of context or whatever.
you wrote For my money, the large number of offices open in states like Washington and Maine are unnecessarily defensive -- and in Georgia, hopelessly offensive. and I don't disagree - if you are looking at the election of 2008.
I teach in southern Georgia, where a mixed race couple I know are afraid to drive into certain towns. As a former northerner this struck me as strange, but it is the reality down here.
My African-American students are incredibly inspired by Obama, and having the 11 campaign offices open in this very red state might say more about Obama's desire to inspire people and lift their spirits, than it does about the need to win this election.
So perhaps the offices aren't hopelessly offensive. Perhaps they are full of hope for the future.
I'll most likely suffer (again) for not reading all the comments before commenting, but I seem to remember reading something about how some states will get their ground games going a little later than others.
Nate:
Obama has an office in Vermont and at least 2 campaign staff. So if he has an office here, I'm sure there are offices in a number of the other states that you marked as zero.
I'm in Texas and I'd be VERY surprised if there's really no offices here, although I haven't seen one yet. The tipping-point states are the most important, but I think the others will get offices opened eventually simply because we need Obama coattails to elect Democrats locally.
A minor point, Nate, but we do have an active Obama office even here in Oklahoma, where the chances of Obama winning are close to 0%. I get regular communications from that office and even do some work for it from time to time. One important reason for such an office even in a state where you have zero chance of winning is that those folks can still phone bank across state lines.
Neil and NC Moderate make clear that Obama is a liar and a panderer on the Energy issue. Neil tells us that Obama supports clean coal, even though there is no such thing. He is totally opposed to any form of energy that would cause pollution and , Neil that is, another Enciron-Wacko. Obama is just another politican.
NC Moderate (moderate where? in Moscow?) trumpets Obama's support for a windfall profits tax on oil companies and claims poplular support for the position. Obama is ignorant when he proclaims support for such a tax -- every legit economist and analyst will tell you that windfall profits taxes are counterproductiove and will simply lead to less domestic oil production. The history of just such a tax in the 1980s is instructive.
On OH and DHL. What a surprise Obama going negative and innacurate! McCain has ben out in front on this issue for sometime and it was his attention to it that caused Congress to hold hearings on the potential closure of the facility in Wilmington.
Just like Obama's shameful attack on McCain and his campaign on Georgia, focussing on some tenuous lobbying connections, Obama is practicing very sleezy attack politics and showing himself as not ready to lead.
Rasmussen Tracking: Obama lead by 2.(48-46)
But look the numbers and the methodology.
Eighty percent (80%) of Democrats say they’ll vote for Obama while 87% of Republicans say they’ll vote for McCain. The two candidates are essentially even among unaffiliated voters.
The methodology is LIKELY VOTERS. Most people know than likely voters at this moment is in favor McCain.
And the numbers, Obama has a good possibility for increase his numbers with the democrats. McCain is already on top with the republicans.
After the convention, Obama will win 4-7% more democrats.
McCain is on top with his base and he trails.
Obama is in a great position for winning this election.
"NC Moderate (moderate where? in Moscow?)"
No, North Carolina is in the American South
"every legit economist and analyst will tell you that windfall profits taxes are counterproductive"
You mean supply-side neocon economists. Reagen created huge budget deficits.Giving $4.5 billion tax cuts to Big Oil is counterproductive and has already cost one GOP Rep. his seat. Maybe it will cost ExxonMcCain the election.
"On OH and DHL. What a surprise Obama going negative and innacurate! "
Truth hurts, deal with it.
"Obama is practicing very sleazy attack politics and showing himself as not ready to lead."
You neocons like to argue that attack ads are required to win elections. You love to dish, but cry when you have to take.
Again, "Pete Kent" you are hypocrite.
So, Pete, candidates who practice "very sleazy attack politics" are not ready to lead?
I guess we know precisely who is less ready to lead then, don't we!
Oh, and I'd just like to point out how completely foolish you made yourself look with your comment yesterday that "McCain gained 2 points in Rasmussen tracking because people are dying in Georgia" in light of today's result. But then again, every single post of yours makes you look completely foolish, so that's no different.
Why are you still posting here?
Nate - loved you on Countdown!!!
Great article on the FL campaigns
http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/state/article764880.ece
I think the gaps you reference are even larger between the campaigns as well...
Eighteen field offices in Washington? For God's sake, send some of these resources to Florida.
Seriously, I have to believe that at least here in the Seattle area the plethora of Obama field offices has more to do with the number of volunteers available (and the potential fundraising potential) than with strategic considerations.
Hear that sound? That's the sound of McCain trolls scampering away as fast as they can because McCain is sinking in the polls.
Live by the tracking poll die by the tracking poll...
I think even an Obama supporter, dead pixie, would be thinking that the tracking polls can go take a flying jump.
Nate seems a bit down on Georgia. I can understand why - Bob Barr hasn't really got off the ground and needs to take at least 4% to give Obama a chance, I reckon. Obamicans should be dumping their cash in Barr's lap at the moment - that's where the real sport is this election.
Weird tracking results.
Rasmussen ticked up 3% points overnight for Obama. It was -1% yesterday and +1 on Tuesday.
So if daily fluctuations of 2-3% are the norm, isn't the MoE more like +/- 7-8% ?
Yiannis
I think that was the point of my post, of course if you didn't understand the subtext let me spell it out for you... The tracking polls suck...
Following tracking polls are about the same as checking a thermometer everyday on the moon. You know that it's ticked down or up a degree or two, but it doesn't make you feel anything different in California or Utah.
Popular vote means nothing. Democrats STILL don't believe that.
All this talk about all this money and all these offices means nothing. You can't buy an election and the big ground game is just an annoyance.
Remember the Deaniacs? That army of youth vote with the orange hats? Didn't work. George Soros threw like 100 million dollars at defeating Bush. Didn't work. Michael Moore makes movies to feed the Bush haters. Made him a little money but didn't work. If money made a difference, Romney would be the nominee, but he's not.
The press builds people up just to tear them down, and the higher they build them up... the more sensational the tearing down will be. Can you imagine what they are going to do to Obama?
O Force One can't fly high enough to escape it.
What Nate's chart shows me is that McCain is concentrating the majority of his ground game in states that are already well-organised for the Republicans. While he gets more "bang for the buck" with that tactic, he builds nothing new and, at best, only turns the numbers the GOP had in previous elections. Again, at best.
We will undoubtedly keep hearing about the spectacular Republican ground organisation that steam-rolled the GOP into victory. It's largely over-rated.
The GOP mobilised the evangelicals and turned out millions of new voters. It was low-hanging fruit because the churches did the organising themselves, and provided an army of volunteers.
That is the big "secret" of the fabulous Republican ground machine.
Those evangelicals voted in percentages out of proportion with their numbers. That won't happen this time around. The numbers don't bear it out. And the Republicans aren't replacing the evangelicals with any new previously untapped legions, either.
The Republicans continue to look backward to previous electoral sub-groups that broke for them and pretending that they remain relevant in 2008: The Angry White Male, the Soccer Mom, the Jingoists, the Evangelicals, etc. The Republicans have either betrayed them or done nothing for them, and while they may still break in the majority for McCain, their numbers are substantially reduced.
The big story on Nov. 5 is going to be how the GOP relied on legions of non-existent voters, while the Democrats turned out legions of new voters and created a formidable new ground machine for the mid-terms.
While the Republicans look backward to 2000 and pretend nothing has changed, the Democrats learned from 2006 that a great deal has changed, and they looking forward to 2010.
Well, doing my own bit of reverse engineering, I guess Obama's GA internal polls must be nearer than the public ones.
Aside from the investment in the state, there's a little more evidence:
- 538 regression runs considerably stronger than the polls. Indeed 538 regression for GA is not far from NC.
- SV, which Nate argues has a Rep bias of 2-3 points, showed a -8 result; IA showed even a -1 race. Both show a tightening race.
- Nate's polling result is really driven by Rasmussen which shows a race very consistently at the -10 range. Consistency (in the face of volatility with the two other pollsters) suggests that the result is boxed by the LV model, so it is perfectly possible that here, locally, Rasmussen has a systematic error.
In short, I suspect Obama has polls with a 5 point McCain advantage, so that it is perfectly rational to invest in the hope that a major registration drive could make the state competitive.
Obama's GOTV is copying the successful 2004 effort by Rove/Bush. McCain, ironically ISN'T.
That's what happens when you think you're doing great, and then wake up on election day and see "our opponent kicked our ass with his GOTV effort."
And so you copy it. So, copying Bush's successful strategy, Obama designs this entire top-down strategy of fully-coordinated offices in every state, immediately subordinate to and responding to the national campaign.
Obama has a plan, just like Bush had a plan in 2004. Identify Democratic leaning constituencies that are under-represented in elections and target them with a massive GOTV effort, and tailor your entire campaign message to reach them and motivate them.
McCain has to rely on a base strategy, but he's dependent on the local RNC offices for micro-targeting, etc. He's essentially farmed out his campaign, just like Kerry did in 2004 to outside groups.
Well, Bush didn't let the local offices dominate HIS campaigns. Rove controlled their entire efforts. Rove came into the campaign with a plan. The plan was to increase registration and turnout among under-represented Republican demographic groups, especially Evangelicals. He got 4 million more of them, and 11 million overall. Bush 2004 ran the entire state by state campaign. They didn't just run a national media strategy and let the local states handle the day-to-day targeting and GOTV efforts.
There's been some complaints by Bush 2004 veterans that by this point in time, Bush had tested field offices with full staff for months, and McCain is just getting started. Bush was on the ground with fully functioning field offices by June.
We'll see in November if there's some huge hidden McCain organizing effort, but it sure looks strangely reminiscent of the Kerry 2004 effort, not Bush's.
Obama appears to have taken what Bush did in 2004 and adapted it and decided to go him one better. That looks like a brilliant strategy. At least, if the election is close, his GOTV efforts stand the chance of giving him the edge.
"Todd Dugdale said: The GOP mobilised the evangelicals and turned out millions of new voters. It was low-hanging fruit because the churches did the organising themselves, and provided an army of volunteers.
That is the big "secret" of the fabulous Republican ground machine.
That's PART of the secret but by no means all, Doug. Remember that Bush got 11 million more new Republican voters in 2004 than in 2000, and only 4 million of them were Evangelicals. The media focused on the churches driving out droves of Bush-bots to the polls. But most new Republicans weren't Evangelicals and were mobilized in the standard way.
Of course, you're totally right that the Evangelicals and other hard-right true believers played a much bigger role in the campaign than their mere numbers. They were the armies of loyalists who volunteered for Bush and organized every precinct.
I think you're wrong when you argue that the Fundies won't turn out this time. Clearly McCain is spending all his efforts to terrorize them by painting Obama as the anti-christ. There's no reason to think it won't work.
But, you ARE right in arguing that there aren't any large republican-leaning constituencies out there to get this time around.
All McCain can do is hope to re-assemble the Bush coalition of 2004 and hope that's enough. All Obama has to do is get as many Democrats as Kerry did (89%) and he'll win in a landslide.
If he falls short by 3 or 4 points (85%-86% Democratic support) then the election will be very close, unless McCain fails to get up to Bush levels (i.e. 94%). Since he's already at 88% even BEFORE the convention, there's no reason to think that virtually EVERY Republican won't rally to McCain.
Right now, Obama gets about 10% of Republicans. If that continues to November that's totally FATAL to McCain, because it limits his base percentage to around 89%, or 5% LESS than Bush got.
And his base is smaller than in 2004 to begin with and Obama's is bigger, by around 3%. And that is BEFORE taking into account any increased Democratic registration or any potential turnout advantage Obama might get.
It's a shame that Petekent can't bring out the kinder, gentler side he shows here:
http://www.shybi-guys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=46&mode=threaded
Awwww, poor Pete Kent is just waiting for Gallup's daily tracker to give him reassurance that McCain isn't imploding of course if Gallup has Obama up by more than 5, we might not here from him all day.../crosses fingers
Wow Morzer... just when you think you know all about somebody...
I for one would never have supected that our own Pete Kent, while posting in another forum, would indulge in embarrassing personal behavior like rampant ellipses abuse.
Though come to think of it, his reasoning often does seem quite elliptical, doesn't it?
Hmmmm...
"I think you're wrong when you argue that the Fundies won't turn out this time"
cugel, I think you make a good point about Fundamentalists, but I expect this election to demonstrate that they are not a monolithic voting bloc. Fundies who are concerned about the environment or who think of Jesus in more of a "love thy neighbor" context may not vote or vote-gasp-for Obama.
Many people leave jobs because they feel under-appreciated and I suspect many Fundies are feeling that way now with John McCain. Even if Obama only pulls 5% of fundies, it is a start and can fracture the GOPs best organizing base.
The upcoming conference where McCain and Obama will appear together may or may not illustrate this point.
Morzer,
That's pretty much the ugliest most hateful thing. You can tell it's not our Pete because that posting has an obvious typing technique that our Pete does NOT practice.
You... should... have... picked... me... for... your... personal... attack... because... I... actually... type... that... way.
You are pretty much scum for this and why would you be cruising the Bi-sites?
Oh yeah... I hope for your sake he's not well connected. We shall see.
Cugel wrote:
I think you're wrong when you argue that the Fundies won't turn out this time. Clearly McCain is spending all his efforts to terrorize them by painting Obama as the anti-christ. There's no reason to think it won't work.
The Evangelicals have split, largely along age lines. Also, the Huckabee campaign showed the Evangelicals that the GOP is fine with them financing, organising, and voting Republican, but they should simply "know their place".
There is certainly a hard core that will remain, and we are seeing that hard core make itself heard. But they are substantially reduced, un-enthusiastic, and less likely to donate or volunteer.
As for the other demographics, as I said, they remain but are substantially reduced and lack enthusiasm. Obviously the GOP still has large numbers of supporters. The difference this time around is that they are smaller in number and more hard-core. Rasmussen gives McCain 87% support among Republicans. Compare that to Bush's 95% in the last election and you will see that the GOP is slowly imploding into a smaller and harder core.
This hard core is also potential liability. The McCain campaign must continue to appeal to a shrill, hateful, and delusional demographic while simultaneously trying to draw in moderates. He can pull off this tightrope act for a few weeks, but not for three months.
Still, my main point is that the GOP is stuck looking backwards and re-living the "good old days" of 9/11, while the Democrats are looking forward and capitalising on the GOP's decline.
For the most part, Republicans still believe that they can throw out words like "liberal" and "traitor" and show pictures of flags and eagles, and Democrats will shrink away in terror at their awesome invincibility. In their world, 2006 never happened and it's always 2002 forever. Let's see how that works out for them.
The other reality than the pollster and the media ignore, is the demographics.
Look, in 2004 the white vote was 81%. In 2004, 77%.
This year, the minority vote will be 26% and white vote 74%
In 2012, the minority vote will be 29-30%.
For me, this year will be the last shot for the republicans winning the white house. Yes, it's the reality.
And if Lieberman was nominated, McCain will be support by only 30% of republicans.
Gallup tracking is Obama 46- McCain43. It´s -2 compared yesterday.
But Obama wins two points in Rasmussen.
DarienCrow, I don't think Petekent being bi is hateful at all, and I think you should confine your bigotry to yourself. As for your typing technique, your single finger seems to have got you to some pretty ugly places. I just think it's sad that Petekent can't behave in a nicer, gentler way on here, rather than spewing out lies and racist slurs. Don't you want him to be a nicer person?
Yeah, what's with the bi hatred, DarienCrow? As for your cheap and nasty threats, that says more about you than anything else. Cowardly scum!
With my calcul, McCain need winning the white vote by the same margin than Bush against Kerry( by 18-19%)and it's possible than it's not enough for win in November.
The white vote will be 74%
The AA vote will be 12.5(conservative estimation)
The Hispanic vote will be 9,5%
The Asian and others vote will be 4%
Obama wins AA vote with 93%: 11,625%
Obama wins Hispanic vote with 63%: 5,985%
Obama wins Asian and others vote with 55%: 2,2%
Total minority vote for Obama: 19,81%
If he wins more than 41% from White vote, he wins this election. It's very simple.
With 41% white vote, he gets 50.15% total vote.
At this moment in the different polls, McCain wins the white vote between 7%(Time poll) and 13-14%(Rasmussen).
It's not enough.
Typical looney left democrats
Can't win on the issues so you resort to personal smears.
You have the right to eat bugs... but I have the right to be disgusted by it.
That does not make me a bigot but if it makes you feel better to call me that... then have at it.
Obama has been at either 46 or 47% for over a week on Gallup, which uses three day rolling averages (i.e. it goes back further than a week).
This supports the idea that McCain's attack ads have limited appeal beyond the "base". Unaffiliated voters continue to break evenly. It's still too early to say for certain, however. Some attack ads take time to "poison" opinion. But Rasmussen showing Obama and McCain tied in "favourables" does not lend credence to the "poison" thesis.
While daily tracking polls are "useless" in predicting outcomes, they are useful in showing the current effectiveness of current efforts.
Stop watching the stupid media. Look the country and the evolution demographics.
This year will be the last shot for the republicans.
In 2012, 2016, 2020. The minority vote will be more and more.
In 2012, the estimation is than the white vote will be only 70-71% total vote.
According to Time magazine online's 8/8/08 article "an Antichrist Obama In McCain Ad?" by Amy Sullivan, the GOP is counting on the speculation about Obama as possible Antichrist to galvanize turnout of evangelicals otherwise not enthused about McCain. As I expected, the Antichrist meme has grown since Obama's speech to 200,000 adoring Germans. "The One" ad plays off the concept.
According to Time, last week there were 700,000 google search results for Obama and antichrist. I checked last night and it is now up to 800,000 -- 100,000 more in a few days.
Problem is Barack can't make a Nixonian statement that "I am not the Antichrist" as that would reinforce the meme.
I find it ironic that Republicans who howl over "smears" here seem to be relying on the belief that the Democratic candidate is the Son of Lucifer Himself to win the election.
Or is that considered "an issue" nowadays?
Perhaps Obama could have some holy water splashed on him to dispel the rumours. It would be comedic gold.
LOL Todd... love the holy water idea! You could even come up with a catchy accompanying slogan to help the public interpret the results.
"If the water don't sizzle, the AC's's a fizzle!"
darien,
I know you posted immediately after my last post and this reply took a while, so I hope you get back to this.
A tax increase didn't cause the dollar to increase this time because the dollar gained because the European economy declined and the European central bank said the Euro was going to decline causing people to want to invest in the dollar.
The reason the dollar has been down is because investors don't want to get behind a currency that is likely to see inflation, which the Fed has been promoting in attempts to improve the economy (which on its own is short sighted because if those attempts fail then the economic downturn is far worse). But, my point on taxes is that the dollar going to have a greater value when the economy and country looks more stable. A massive spending deficit and a huge debt do not give the impression of stability, and therefore you will see investors look to other currencies. A increase in government revenue that is used to pay cut down the deficit and maybe if the deficit is eventually eliminated pay off some of our debt will only help the economy in the long run.
But, neither candidate has an economic plan that does anything when it comes to the deficit. Obama spends more than he will generate with his tax increase on those who make more than 250K (and his claims the war cost will go away won't really happen for at least two years, probably more). McCain on the other hand makes the absurd claim that we can solve the deficit by cutting taxes and eliminating pork spending. Both guys are dreaming when it comes to fiscal policy.
Again, the memes conflict.
He's hopelessly liberal and can't even break 50% in the polls, but he's also so amazingly popular that only Satan could account for it.
He's an empty suit, yet he has a diabolical plan for worldwide dominion and the enslavement of Mankind.
He's unprepared to be Commander-in-Chief, but he's completely prepared to command the Legions of Hell.
Maybe McCain's head will start spinning around trying to juggle these contradictions. Aha!
To Todd Dougdale, perhaps Obama could have Father Pfleger splash holy water on Obama and shout "The power of Christ compels you." And Bobby Jindal can be brought in as he participated in an exorcism in college.
It's crazy to have 18 offices in WA and only 10 in CO.
"700,000 google search results for Obama and antichrist."
Searching the terms "McCain" and "antichrist" yields 502,000 results.
Searching the terms "McCain" and "Exxonmobile" yields 601,000 results.
Searching the terms "McCain" and "Big Oil" yields 1,450,000 results.
I like the last one as McCain is distancing himself from the "Gang of Ten" (5 GOP and 5 Democratic senators) looking for a compromise energy bill.
It's crazy to have 18 offices in WA and only 10 in CO.
It doesn't make a lot of sense. Here is my theory. The WA caucus was a real turning point in the primary. It was the saturday after Super Tuesday and was the biggest state going that day. Washington was really going to set the tone for the whole month of February.
Clinton had already secured the endorsements of most of the state's Democratic establishment (both senators, former governor, most prominent congressmen). Obama needed Gov Gregoire's endorsement. She wanted to endorse him. He was very popular here and it seemed like the right move. She decided to see if she could get something in return. She knew she was facing a difficult reelection campaign and Obama would be tempted to ignore the state. In exchange for the endorsement, Obama had to promise to keep a bunch of offices open for the fall. Obviously these offices will benefit Gregoire more than Obama.
Just a theory, but it sounds right to me.
McCain and antichrist also turns up huge numbers of hits because McCain is mentioned in passing in articles and comments focused on whether Obama is the Antichrist (especially because of "The One" ad.)
Obama fits far more of the accepted criteria and possible other factors than McCain does -- though McCain is lefthanded like Obama and his name means "son of Cain, the world's first murderer."
But McCain fails the most basic Antichrist test -- he is not a charismatic speaker who talks of peace. And he is not worshipped throughout the European Union (former Roman Empire) as Obama is.
I wonder if the GOP will get cable networks to air Rosemary's Baby and the Omen movies in October?
Todd D. I think we basically agree. I think your point about a generational conflict among Fundies is interesting. I don't know them well enough to know about that.
But, if McCain is currently getting at least 88% of Republicans and Bush got 94%, where are the missing Republicans? Are the 6% Fundies who are disenchanted with the party because their crackpot beliefs have been ignored (again).
Is there any reason to think that calling Obama the Anti-christ isn't going to work with those idiots? They're not exactly rational. What's to prevent them from drinking the cool-aid once again?
They keep voting Republican, and yet prayer in the schools, outlawing abortion, and turning the country into a faith-based community remain as elusive as ever.
At least the authoritarian war-mongers "the national-security Republicans" get to have their egos strokes by belligerent talk of starting ever more destructive wars (this time against Iran).
The Fundies get S.Ct. justices, but in reality nothing is ever going to outlaw abortion in America, and prayer won't be returning to the schools and the U.S. is just not going to fit back into "Father Knows Best" 50's America they long for, where all the horrible uppity Negros and Hispanics and Asians know their place and everything is a lily-white suburb with nice lawns and a white picket fences.
Yes, they are a declining demographic. And no, it can't happen quickly enough. We have about 10 years to save our planet from global warming turning the nations of the world into a holocaust from climate change induced mass starvation and genocidal wars over dwindling resources.
That's the real "end-times" the Fundies keep babbling about. And we have the power to stop it if we want to. We just have to get our heads out of our asses long enough to see and have the courage to stop listening to the oil lobbyists long enough to TAKE ACTION.
Typical Republican McCain arrogance. Apparently, John McCain doesn't believe he has to fight in what he perceives as typically safe Republican states and thus decided not to open any offices there, in the vain belief that votes will naturally come home to the GOP in November.
Of course, the states that don't have offices for either candidate opened are pretty much safe states or are really small states that don't have the organization in place to open offices yet.
But in states like Montana or Indiana, you'd expect McCain to have at least 1 campaign office after recent polls show a dead heat with Obama in those states.
Unfortunately, John McCain would rather focus on comparing Obama to Paris Hilton, tire gauges, and apparently Obama's healthy lifestyle rather than run an actual election campaign.
One word: LOSER!
Cugel: yes, the Evangelicals are a potent electoral force. There, I said it.
The GOP is condensing into a harder core. There used to be such a thing as a "moderate Republican", but that beast is extinct. We will surely continue to hear more scary and intense rhetoric from Republicans as the months go by. I refuse to wring my hands over it, however, because it only shows that the GOP is moving away from the centre and towards the inevitable electoral defeat that such a move entails.
The GOP put up McCain as a candidate to appeal to moderates. Now they are re-constructing him into something much further to the Right than the public once considered him to be. For whatever reason, the Republicans are counting on the public to take a sharp turn to the Right. What they base that on is a demographic that exists only in history, and a belief that there is a vast and silent sea of right-wing voters that isn't showing up in the polls and which will leap at the chance to vote this year for some mysterious reason. I contend that is a weak and illusory premise.
PeteKent: every legit economist and analyst will tell you that windfall profits taxes are counterproductiove and will simply lead to less domestic oil production.
True. But I have yet to hear many legit economists say that offshore drilling will bring down oil prices. Yet McCain still says it will happen. He even implies it will happen almost immediately even though the oil won't be on the market for about 10 years.
Obama is criticized for offering a plan that consists of "going green" but not big on increasing production. If we are serious about getting off of oil, we shouldn't need more production. If we just drove cars that Europeans drive today, we could cut our oil consumption by 20%--and that's using today's technology, while not doing anything else. Surely in 10 years we could all be driving far more efficient cars, and by that time with even more technological advances we should be starting the transition to cars that don't use gas at all.
Saying no to drilling is a statement that we're going to take the problem seriously, that we can't wait 10 years to start getting off of stuff that is bad for us: bad for our foreign policy, bad for our economy, bad for our environment. That's a sound energy plan.
Or we can say we're going to put off hard decisions and drill, even though it won't have much of an effect on gas prices (because it's a global market and the added supply doesn't amount to much on that scale). It won't help consumers, won't help the environment, but will be great for oil companies.
I know which option I prefer.
In WA the offices are part of our Coordinated Campaign and until after our Primary on Aug 19 are actually a parallel campaign for Chis Gregoire. WA has become an all mail in state this year and the ballots are out and coming in at a record pace. Our office (Thurston County, Olympia) is fielding doorbell teams on weekends and operates a 10 phone phonebank seven days a week. We are told that OFA will take the helm after the primary. The change over has been going on for a couple of weeks and should go smoothly.
The big negative aspect of the abandoned offices in other states is that they abandoned their grassroots organizations which in most cases just spontaniously disorganized. They did that to us in WA. Our Thurston Co. for Obama group was the only office in WA between mid Feburary and June 1 because we were strong enough to pay the rent and keep the lights on and keep the cheerleading going. We were the Obama Campaign in this state and might still be except for the Coordinated Campaign.
PS. If you live in WA get that ballot in the mail. We've got a govenator to re-elect a bunch of other dems as well.
According to the radio news this morning, the Republicans are opening three Victory Offices in NC today. The news also said the Democrats are opening several more offices today, bringing their total to 15. It wasn't clear from the news story whether they meant Democratic party offices or dedicated Obama offices.
In Atlanta alone 8 more offices will be open soon.
Per the Howey Ind. Political Report today
"OBAMA OPENS HAMMOND OFFICE: The new Barack Obama campaign office on Indianapolis Boulevard in south Hammond is modest. It looks like an insurance office, and the plain lobby houses a television that looks older than at least one of Obama’s campaign organizers (Times of Northwest Indiana). To voters, the fanciness of the campaign offices may not matter as much as the number of them. The Obama campaign has opened 19 offices across Indiana ' including four in the region ' and plans to add another 10 or more before the Nov. 4 general elections, according to State Communications Director Jonathan Swain. The presumed Democratic presidential nominee also has made 43 stops in Indiana since January, including three during the last month, Swain said. Obama made a surprise lunchtime visit last week at the Schoop’s restaurant in Portage. Republican challenger John McCain, by comparison, has not opened a campaign office in the state and has visited twice this year, said Indiana Republican Party Communications Director Jay Kenworthy. The Indiana Republican Party is listed as McCain’s state office on the campaign’s Web site."
WI growing to 35 offices!
The campaign for Sen. Barack Obama in Wisconsin is pursuing a grassroots-level strategy.
"This is a bottom-up philosophy approach," said Phil Walzak, state communications director for the Obama campaign. "We are putting together a ground game, we want to talk to voters in a one-on-one way about the issues that matter most and share Sen. Obama’s message with them."
The campaign announced its "Blueprint for Victory" in Wisconsin on Wednesday. Part of the effort includes neighborhood organizing teams to put together events such as phone banks, policy forums, house meetings and voter registration.
Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill.,with his daughter Malia Obama, 10, carries a lei that he later placed at his grandfather's gravesite at the National Memorial Cemetery of the Pacific in Honolulu, Hawaii Wednesday, Aug. 13, 2008. Sen. Obama is in Hawaii for a vacation.(AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
The campaign said it is recruiting more than 450 of these teams, which are each responsible for between ten and 15 wards. So far, nearly 1,100 people have joined 350 teams, according to the campaign.
"We have a pool of volunteers in the thousands," Walzak said. "The excitement, the enthusiasm, has been really, really impressive."
The campaign has opened 24 official offices so far, Walzak said, and plan to have 35 offices by the end of the month — more than twice the number that Sen. John Kerry’s campaign had in the state by this time of year in 2004. The campaign has also opened offices in traditionally Republican areas, such as Waukesha, in addition to places that have tended to vote Democratic in the past.
"We know this is going to be a battleground state," Walzak said. "We really worked very hard to mobilize quickly."
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