If there's any upside to all this waiting, I think we can all agree that it's valuable getting this sneak preview of what it'll be like to live in an America under a potential administration obviously deep in the pockets of Big Text.
Hopefully we beat Stewart and Colbert to that joke.
Remember, the over-under on the convention bounce is six. McCain's group apparently has settled on a nine point inflation, to +15.
Fox News sez: Obama's no longer advertising in AK, FL, GA, MT, NC, ND, VA.Obama’s decision to stop advertising in those states is raising eyebrows.
Well, he's probably giving up on those states, right? Fox also "accidentally" aired an Obama-Ayers ad they had condemned the day before. What a bad stroke of luck for them; people will claim they're biased. Those guys can't catch a break.
Ambinder says, hey, look at this flight plan. Taegan Goddard notes the Biden family is gathering in Delaware, including his son flying down from Maine.
Politico's Republican blogger Jonathan Martin brought Cindy McCain flowers. Ben Smith? Michelle's waiting.
Wolf Blitzer asked about our Ringtone Theory, and got a weird answer from the correspondent who suggested a potentially staggered announcement, as well as a potential dawn announcement. I just thought of two things that would annoy me out here in California far more than the middle-of-the-night text: (1) the Tape Delayed East Coast Bias Text and (2) the Dawn Text. If Robert Gibbs is indeed appearing on all the Saturday morning shows and folks like Matthews and Olbermann are gathering for special live coverage of the Obama speech in Springfield tomorrow morning, we may be at the Media Churlishness Tipping Point if we don't get it tonight.
Now, think of the good feelings people have leaving work on a Friday - people gather socially on Friday nights, especially younger and more single people who can create a buzz. Imagine some of the more politically active young people hanging out with less politically active friends and getting a news-breaking text and tipping point some gatherings into little cells of persuasion. And now I'm talking myself into an imminent announcement. Isn't MSNBC about to come online with the political shows?
Finally, a junkie anecdote: last night, I texted Nate about something, and he replied "*%^$, I thought that was Obama's text." And when he texted me back to say that, I stopped mid-pee to grab my phone.
Veepwatch: it burns.
8.22.2008
Nuggets (and Open Veepwatch Thread)
@ 6:59 PM
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119 comments
I'm signed up, and got the first text on my phone in weeks. It was a damn chainletter.
I feel your pain.
So did he really stop advertising there, or no?
The Internet has already hurt my work productivity. This election season has only multiplied that. And the veepstakes this week has only multiplied that. Basically, I’ve worked about 2 hours during my 40 hour work week.
Sean--I think he stopped advertising there...for a week. This is just a Convention reset, as far as I can tell. After the Convention, they'll figure out where they're advertising again.
I do find the McCain analysis of the 15 point bump expectation interesting--and bizarre. It's a very reasonable analysis. And the weirdest part is this line:
"This means that whatever bump he gains from the announcement has the potential to be lasting."
That's not the way to play the expectations game! You're supposed to say something like "Oh, yeah, he'll get a 15 point bounce, but it will be gone in a few weeks" to reassure your supporters and keep the media thinking it's close. Instead, he implies that even a 5 point bounce could be permanent. If that were true, then a 5 point bounce would spell the end of the McCain campaign.
Very, very weird.
I have some meaningless noise to contribute!
Time reports that Obama-Bayh bumper stickers are being printed.
http://thepage.time.com/2008/08/22/newsrooms-on-fire/
Headfake or real deal? I doubt Obama's campaign chose NOW to get sloppy. (Still, I think I'll hold onto those Bayh stocks on intrade, to avoid making a complete ass of myself if it is true.) :-P
Drudge announced a plant making Obama/Bayh bumper stickers.
@nicholas,
I'm with you buddy. I'm a grad student, and my advisor has yelled at me twice. Then I texted him and cussed me out "I thought that was Obama's text damnit! Get back to work!"
True story.
Speaking of Big Text, has anybody heard numbers on how many have signed up for THE text?
Any estimates on what the final number will come to?
These bumper stickers caused Bayh´s intrade numbers to rise from under 20 to over 30... I am not into betting, but you can make a lot of money on speculations, I guess?
And this is just the beginning, it will only get worse in future elections. This will be the age of information, and information and it´s creation (or fake) will be a valuable good.
I'm only signed up for email alerts, and in the middle of dinner ran over to my computer to check my email. Of course, the only emails I had were from the campaign manager for a state assembly race I'm working on, so I wound up holding up my dinner for ten minutes to answer her emails.
Not nearly as good as your anecdote.
Does the Bayh bumper stickers in Kansas City story stick, or is there another printer in St. Louis doing Biden material, and one in Anchorage doing Hillary material?
It might be Bayh, but those Obama/Bayh bumper stickers are 100% bullshit. They are ugly and not at all in the style of the extremely consistent Obama campaign. Plus, do you really think the campaign woudl be this tight about the process and hope that a printing plant would be able to keep a secret? Really?
I am with nicholas. those stickers are not in the Obama mold they look nothing like what he usually does. Especially that star, makes it look like McCain's. But the media needed a morsel and went all out. Ha!
According to the Fox article, the Obama people say any suspension is temporary. Something tells me about 10,000 ads in Florida followed by a breather just before the veep is announced is not a sign that Obama's giving up there. And there's not a chance he's giving up VA. But, eyebrows, you know.
I was in court this morning, where cell phones are verboten. Opposing counsel refused to turn his off, just in case. (He's headed off to the Convention on Monday.)
Why advertise at all for the next week if you're Obama? You get free advertising care of the national press coverage of your convention.
I wouldn't put much stock in the plane flight. Wilmington is home to some major companies, including Dow Chemical, who presumably fly people to Chicago every day.
I notice that the Obama/Bayh bumper sticker image has a union bug, but no "Paid for by Obama for America" on it.
In the 'B's I prefer Obama/Brown '08 (Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio) rather then Obama's cousin Evan Bayh.
Man, the Obama campaign has nerves of steel. If it were to leak prematurely at this point, imagine how terrible and deflating. This is like watching somebody walk a tightrope over Niagara Falls. I can hardly breathe for the suspense.
I... just... want... it... safely... OVER!
My understanding is they pulled to change content. As in let me introduce you to the real Krusty warmonger.
I doubt there will be an announcement tonight.
So could he actully wait till the Springfield event? Go on stage alone and say (to hushed silence followed by thunderous applause) "Waiting in the wings is the person who will help me bring hope and change to America. And that person, who will now join me onstage, is..."
It would certainly be the most dramatic political moment ever. But wouldn't that step on the whole mass text message stunt?
Filistro, that could still work. He says "my vice president is...", all the cell phones in the audience go off, two seconds later _________ walks out on stage.
Another thing potentially debunking the Bayh story: when the word was going around this morning that Obama was notifying the losers, almost every futures contract traded up, since candidates figuered if they hadn't received a call they were still in the running, and all there buddies were buying with impunity.
At one point, the sum of the bids on the contracts got to 50% more than the net value.
Then, Bayh was the first to crack really hard, halving in less than an hour, then quadrupling from the low to the high on the KC story, and now halving back again in the last 15 minutes to where it started the day.
He must be out there denying it to get the hounds off the track so quickly.
The 15 pt. bounce Clinton received in 1992 was due in part to Ross Perot announcing at the start of the Convention he was no longer running for President only to change his mind a couple weeks later.
I think the volatility we are seeing is an example of the trouble with this kind of futures market like intrade.
1. There is no regulation of insider trading, so relevant actors can influence the market.
2. The volume of trades is small, relative to say, the stock market.
3. Moreover some proportion of
investors have an irrational commitment to a candidate, much moreso than people have to a company. Because few people are investing large amounts of money, this effect adds to the volatility.
4. The amount of information we have on the market is minimal (plus Obama has an incentive to spread disinformation), and highly influenced by people like Drudge, who, I guarantee you, is making money by affecting intrade share prices.
I remain convinced of the predictive power of markets, but this election season has made me wonder about that particular futures market.
This reminds me of when I was a true baseball fan.
As a reminder, nothing happens in baseball until it happens. If you love baseball, you wait around watching the whole game in hopes of being there when something actually happens.
Somehow Obama has us all sitting around waiting for something to happen.
It is truly remarkable to me that he has dominated the debate this week by doing nothing. But I was thinking that an announcement during rush hour anywhere in the US would be a bad time. That means at least 10 pm Eastern. I hadn't thought of targeting the time when everyone is together. Suddenly 20% of everyone around you looks at their phone to get a text? Could be high or low percentage depending on where you are.
Hey Voltaire, I like that image of the new VP walking onstage to the clamor of thousands of ringtones! Fraught with symbolism... brave new world and all that.
Love your work, BTW, especially the poetry. (I liked Candide, too, except for all the gratuitous sex and violence ;-)
rmadilo,
Maybe, the only thing is that I doubt low-information voters (many of whom are swing voters) are affected all that much by veepstake fever. The other downside is that Obama's pick could be rather anticlimactic.
For instance if he picks Biden or Bayh, I think the general reaction would be: "... oh. Okay."
Gore and Clinton get the wow factor.
Jack Reed and Chet Edwards get the "Jack/Chet who?" response.
I promised myself I wouldn't do this, but since Obama is taking forever to announce his pick and I'm bored, here are my picks in order of preference,
1) Gore. The man won a freaking Nobel Prize. Obama-Gore would win by at least 6 points. In fact, the only ticket Obama-Gore could lose to would be Gore-Obama.
2. Warner. He would clinch Virginia, would probably mean he would clinch the election.
3. Biden. I like Joe a lot, although I'm wondering if he is a tad overrated right now because everyone is pining for an attack dog, when later the country will be sick of negativity and want to see strong, sensible leadership potential. That sounds more like Bayh than Biden. Still, Joe is probably the best of the likely candidates.
4. Schweitzer: Would fortify Obama's message of "out with the old, in with the new". Too bad he only brings 3 EVs with him.
5. Clinton: As much as I would hate to see her picked, the ticket would win.
Honorable Mention: Bayh. Solid but boring, and even with Bayh on the ticket, Indiana seems like a long shot. I don't really see him helping that much.
Everyone else IMO, has liabilities that outweigh their assets.
I'm not even signed up for the Obama text and I still get anxiously excited. Every time my phone buzzes I assume it's from my friend who signed up.
This tidbit just posted at The Corner:
TVNewser received this email in our tip box from CNN SVP David Bohrman to his staff, getting them ready for what could be a long night of waiting for Sen. Barack Obama's name to show up in the inbox:
Subject: LATE duty!! Hi.. Just talked to Bart... Getting more and more likely this happens overnight... We think LKL should plan to hang around and be able to break into their own show if news really leaks out. Meaning until 1a. Also, AC360 should plan to stay until at least 12 mid. It is possible that might be extended ... Please make plans to keep your technical people and staff to pull this off. DB
That texting sounds like me... every time I hear that little beep I spazz out and jump for the phone..... Obama is playing puppets with us.
C'mon now, I say.
The only problem with having a text minutes or seconds before the pick walks on stage is that it is pretty technically unfeasible to have everyone's cellphone go off even within one minute of eachother, because of the latency and sheer volume of the networks and data respectively. A host needs to make these texts, and that host isn't bottlenecked by its speed as much as it is bottlenecked by the fact that phone networks will only accept and distribute its data so fast. For instance, both me and my girlfriend have cnn alerts, and we frequently get texts 10 or 15 minutes apart.
John... I hate it when tedious facts get in the way of my fantasies...
sorry to burst you bubble man. I do like the 10pm eastern while everyone is out partying or gathering in some other fashion though, to help spread the word that is.
Keith O saying that Andrea Mitchell has reported that Bayh and Kaine are out.
So now it is down to Biden or a surprise.
Sorry Voltaire and filistro, but cell phones going off at the same time Obama announces the VP in Springfield doesn't do anything for me.
Wasn't the whole idea of having your supporters sign up for a text message to let them be the "first to know?"
Warner>Gore>Sebelius>Hillary>Biden>Edwards
Isn't it obvious?
Like the Hillary phone call: the text will come at 3 am!!!
The only question is, will PDT folks get it at midnight? Or have they the technology that it will be based on area code. I imagine it will be all at once.
For the candidate not to be anticlimactic and diminished by the hype at this point, there are only four choices that are still big enough.
Clinton, Powell, Warner or Gore.
Talking w/ friends in the Obama camp in Virginia and New Mexico, they both call immediate BS on the Obama/Bayh sticker.
They talked to me a bit about the consistency in branding that they have seen from the campaign and notice the complete lack of the "O" shape that dominates all Obama stickers. A helpful reference is here:
http://store.barackobama.com/Stickers_s/500.htm
The timing of this text message has strangely and unexpectedly become one of the most fascinating decisions I've come across in a long time. Incredibly important? No. But at the same time it is the first glimpse we are getting of a new type of interactivity in American politics, and another interesting play by the Obama camp to really fire up young voters.
I'm a McCain supporter and even I have caved in and signed up for the text message alert. Honestly I don't know why -- unless it's either Hillary or someone completely out of left field (hopefully not literally), I'll just end up shrugging it off and going about my business.
At best, FOX News is GOP TV. At worst, they're a Propaganda Network. They'd be fined and kicked off the television in any other country, perhaps with the exception of Italy.
Rupert Murdoch's British version of FOX News makes MSNBC and CNN look like Channel Four (UK). I shit you not. In fact, SKY News would be attacked by Bill O'Reilly as a leftists. Why? Because they're actually "fair and blanced" and report the news without editorializing or attacking people. It's scary to compare these two 24/7 cable networks owned by the same individual.
Hey Seattle, here's the plan. It will come at 3 AM but on a rolling basis by time zone.
When the notice reaches the Eastern Time Zone the rest of the country will be in a "Cone of Silence" until the clock reaches 3 AM in their zone.
The news story says the plant is printing bumper stickers, but the posted picture to go with the story is NOT of a bumper sticker, but rather of a placard. Since the story goes out of its way to play up the bumper sticker angle, why show a placard?
Biden's up 16 points on InTrade today. Now over 50%. Someone knows something.
for all of the talk about how it "must" be a big pick, a huge name, i'm not sure i agree. sure, us politics junkies and the commentariat are whipped up into a frenzy, on the edge of their seats about this veep pick. lord knows the talking heads are (what else is there to talk about?). but aren't most people still watching the olympics? or enjoying the waning days of summer?
of course, i'd like this to be the case. i'd prefer one of the surprise picks, mostly because they're so much more interesting than the so called big names.
Intrade update:
Biden WAAAY up to 70%
Bayh dropped all the way to 8%
I really don't get why it needs to be a huge name. I really just don't want it to be Bayh (phonetically--ObamaBayh (pronounced 'bye') sound awful). But aside from that I am going to be psyched no matter who it is. What this shows is how 21st century this campaign is. New Technology changing politics and journalism. Look at all the shows scrambling because they know nothing. Just that in itself is a major achievement.
Jonathan Cohn quotes Olbermann reporting both Bayh and Kaine have been told it's not them.
Now Biden is at 74.4%. It is increasing every time I reload.
This might be it...
Webb. Let it be Webb and then Obama in a landslide.
Its either Biden or a darkhorse now.
Biden is *alright* as a VP candidate.
He completely meets criteria #1--he could step into the Presidency in the midst of a crisis (sudden death, assassination, terrorist attack) without missing a beat. I would feel extremely reassured if I saw him at the desk in the Oval Office after an event like that, as partisan as I am.
Criteria #2 is helping in the campaign. I'm not so sure about that one.
I'm just glad he didn't pick Toll Road Timmeh or Kitty Sebelius. Not because it would hurt his campaign, because if he did get elected two mediocre novices would be a heartbeat away.
FWIW, Clinton is now 2nd at 11% on intrade.
LAT, What does all the shows scrambling because they know nothing have to do with modern technology? They're always scrambling and no nothing about VP choices.
I don't think the text messaging has any importance for the VP selection. It is significant because it uses people's desire to be the first to know the VP selection to amass a huge database of telephone number for future use.
I agree VC, no matter how much I disagree with the politics of Joe Biden, I would be very reassured to see him in the White House after a tragedy.
If it burns you need to get tested.
Alternatively, did the burn feel like Biden?
From a Marc Ambinder reader a little while ago -
Wolf Blitzer on the Situation Room begging viewers to stay tuned so CNN can bring them coverage of a text message.
How sad. New media for the win.
Folks...its Biden.
my thought here is that people like Drudge and Halperin and then Wolf Blitzer think they drive the news. They decide what matters. They decide how to frame it. I think new technology undermines that. The fact that the campaign decided to go directly to those who contribute, volunteer, or just are willing to give their data to them is a way of driving the message and taking it out of the hands of these bloviators. I am sort of following up on Sean or Nate's point earlier that those who are usually the brokers because they are connected and those who seek information. But that is just in MHO.
You've no idea how much this makes me want to text every political junky I know.
Which is, uh, a fair number of people. Maybe I'll just do it selectively...
Also makes me sad I don't have your number, since it's obvious you're easily fucked with.
I've got it down to these names. Or at least I'm hoping these are the names.
Joe Biden (I've beginning to doubt he's the pick)
Hillary Clinton (Obviously, or it could be the media's creation)
Wesley Clark (Born in Illinois)
Brian Schweitzer (The biggest surprise pick of all-time)
My preferred VP shortlist:
SCHWEITZER
WARNER
CLARK
WEBB
BIDEN
I'm actually of the opinion that Obama wait till after the conventions to announce his VP.
they just said on foxnews, that obama's team said they wont send out any txt's till 10 am tomorrow.
We are trusting Fox news on the pulling ads?
Besides this wise quote above:
"Why advertise at all for the next week if you're Obama? You get free advertising care of the national press coverage of your convention."
Frankly this news is a red-herring. There could be new ads for just red states, etc. Not advertising in VA would make no sense, etc.
Non-news.
(PS Juris....my rolling timezones was a joke!)
Lindsey Graham won't be McCain's VP:
"If John asked me to be his running mate, I’d tell him to take a nap"
source
Actually, time zones are important to us when we send all of Obama's message.
I already emailed your gmail account willing to give you the scoop. Oh well....
Kevin Bertram
Blue Horseshoe loves Anacot Steel... er, Biden.
I'm surprised nobody's talking about the whole idea of the text messaging being a new social communication function. This announcement is NOT aimed at the media. It's aimed at the networking supporters who are about to go out and socialize.
The whole idea that Friday night is for "dumps" belies the fact that everyone in the entire media is hanging on every iota of hint. It's bewildering. The folks showing wall-to-wall coverage talking about how if they announce it now, won't it go unnoticed?
Ambinder has a hilarious comment from a reader: Wolf Blitzer breathlessly talking to his audience promising they will bring them breaking news of a text message (that anyone can just get by sending "VP" to 62262). This is a different media world. And this is about firing up supporters at a time when they can be social.
Friday night good feelings are much better than Saturday early morning feelings, especially for non-morning folks.
MissLaura, any time my phone makes noise, I eagerly check. I'll tell you what's being fucked with though - my and my gf's desire to spend quality time tonight before I head to Denver.
Here's an example - one of my friends on the campaign staff says a sudden conference call has been announced, and yes, he has explicitly expressed a desire to fuck with me.
If the text messages don't go out until tomorrow, how the heck will they keep this from leaking? The VP has to physically get to Springfield. If the campaign can keep that under wraps then either Obama has just shown he's the best qualified Presidential candidate we've ever had or that the prospect of an Obama Presidency is really really scary.
I still think tonight, before 11 pm Eastern.
McCain and Obama prices are down. I think people are scrambling to buy Biden and selling off Obama and McCain cheap.
Also, I agree, someone must know something.
sean, I get that the communication network is important, but I think the word would get out to Obama supporters and the feel good Friday night crowd just as easily without the mass text. People would eagerly be checking their BB's, then texting all their friends. I think the major value added part of the Obama camp sending out a mass text is accumulating all of those phone numbers.
Well its 3pm in HI. That should make everyone who works regular hours off. It is time.
Please Goddess, may it be Clinton or Gore. Our team needs a win.
BTW, can someone smart explain to me how I can avoid having to re-register every time I log onto this site and want to post something?
It's getting annoying, and I can't keep adding an "i" forever.
Yeah, I think 11ET/8PT is the cut off for tonight. But then again, nothing anyone has assumed has been right so far.
foxnews said they just confirmed that gov kaine will not be the vp.
I had a lot of trouble too. Lately I've had success getting on because I opened an account at word press. Once I learned that I have to log on there before I open up a window for 538 I've been doing fine, mores the pity many would say.
Fox also said the text wouldn't come until tomorrow.
I quit drinking 2 days ago but this whole deal has driven me right back to the demon rum.
Thanks border, I'll try that.
The logging in, not the rum. :)
Great post Sean!
One of my friends sent me a fraud text on Mon saying it was HRC. I had just woken up late (day off work) and in a morning haze forwarded it to a bunch of friends, making a nice big ass of myself. One of the better pranks to be pulled on me, though I imagine it was not uncommon this week.
That's Endicott Steel, Sean. You were born in the 80s, right? LOLZ...
Are there any other offspring of contenders flying home to see dear old dad? Or mom? I don't think so...
Polling update. Slight shift back to Obama. Guess a post to come soon.
On a side note, away from all this VP speculation, I wonder what kind of polling data will come out early next week. Is there a slow down in state polling during the convention period? If so, that's two weeks of sparse polling data. Wonder what that'll do to the simulations.
It has to be HRC.
Because it was kept "secret".
The "secret special guest" has to be a celebrity.
Dammit, Senator Obama, just kept McInsane out of the White House!!!!!
I probably would have liked Joe Biden at least as much as HRC, but now that you've made a "secret special guest" thing out of it, it better be HRC - or her husband.
You can't roll the drums for half an hour and then pull Joe Biden out of the hat.
I'm confused. MI just moved 10% back toward Obama, CO is back (albeit slightly) to Obama, and NV is closer than ever to switching over. What happened?
Don't you guys get it? The text-message announcement thing was a gimmick meant to control the media narrative for a few days - and it worked.
Literally doing nothing, Obama has had the mainstream media standing on its toes waiting for this announcement. First they thought it might be on MON/TUES, then maybe WED/THUR, and then it must be Friday, right? Nope. Announcing that he would be campaigning in IL with the pick on Sat afternoon added a ceiling to the whole thing, meaning the days closer become even more speculation-crazy.
It doesn't even need to be a "shocking surprise" pick. The mere guessing process has created a level of hype bigger than a former announcement of *anyone* would have done.
Moreover, the McCain-housing gaffe was a serious stroke of luck. Hopefully once Obama and his VP (which all signs point to Biden) are campaigning, they make sure to make a few jabs at it on tomorrow, to keep the whole thing in the narrative.
Well done Obama team, well done. Almost perfectly executed in contrast to the McCain campaign, who chose to wait until Aug 29th - his birthday, only further accentuating the age issue -, the 3rd anniversary of katrina (which provides a nice segue to talk about Fay), and the DAY AFTER OBAMA's acceptance speech. Could the McC campaign have possibly picked a worse date??
Its time to share a rumor with you all. A little bird just told me that if Obama screws this VP pick up 450 Obama delegates have pledged to flip their vote at the convention. Then Hillary will pick Obama as her VP and we're on to victory.
James said...
I'm confused. MI just moved 10% back toward Obama, CO is back (albeit slightly) to Obama, and NV is closer than ever to switching over. What happened?
-------------
New state polls from MI, NM and NV. Obama +7, +4 and +1 respectively. That explains MI directly and the mountain west move for CO was influenced by NM and NV
Okay, there's one other reasonable "endless drum roll" candidate.
Al Gore.
BO, I am going to crawl across hot sand and broken glass to vote for you no matter what, but after this build-up, you do understand that others will demand that you pick someone named Gore or Clinton.
I guess a shock announcement of Mike Bloomberg might sort of work as well.
harold,
Or Warner or Lugar or...
Border . . . come on - and a little birdie told me McCain is going to drop from the race and name Huckabee his replacement.
Mike, I just used Anacot Steel because that's what Charlie Sheen says in Wall Street from 1987. I was making a movie reference. Have you seen it? It's good.
Was there a later spoof that used "Endicott?"
Is it just my personal bias, or does something feel iffy about this Chet Edwards stuff?
Going to try something and play devil's advocate, though:
By leaking that C. Edwards is on the shortlist a day in advance of the announcement, the Obama campaign is giving supporters time to look him up and find out who he is, so he won't be such an alien figure once they roll him out. Edwards is also a moderate from the South and a favorite of Nancy Pelosi. He's also much more conservative than Obama, which fits with Obama's remarks that he wants an independent person who will disagree with him on some issues.
...Okay, I didn't convince myself. Now I'll try it from the other way:
When Obama supporters consult Wikipedia to learn about C. Edwards, what do they find? The guy supports a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage. President Bush's Crawford ranch is in his district. He's a Southern Baptist whose faith affects his politics to the nth degree. He's barely a Democrat in anything more than name only. He's never been elected to an office higher than U.S. congressman, which might not jive with Obama's "ready to be president" comments.
I'm not even liberal, and the guy turns me off. What will my peace-and-love Portland buddies think of Rep. Edwards as VP?
There's a really interesting article about how mccain got where he is, courtesy of the hensley millions. I came across it quite by accident. it was so long I didn't actually finish it ...
How Cindy Hensley invented John McCain
http://www.tnr.com/story_print.html?id=0fd7470d-a41f-4d9e-9328-fd079b476a0a
nc_voter sure got it right!
and you know what else, this week has given the country a good good look at biden
IT IS BIDEN
This has been obvious for long but now it is no longer a secret. So, my suggestion to Obama group is : dont wait till morning otherwise your supporters will feel let down as one network after another will break this story
So I realize that I may be going out on a limb here...
But John King on CNN just said that the Obama campaign confirmed that the text will be sent out tomorrow... and that it could come "as early as 4AM on the east coast."
Which, according to my fantastic math skills, is 3AM in Springfield, IL. Sounds like a great time to announce Hillary Clinton as the VP nominee.
Obviously, that's really likely to be a coincidence, but why would the Obama campaign say that a text could be going out in the middle of the night?
Any thoughts?
NC Voter said -
Well done Obama team, well done. Almost perfectly executed in contrast to the McCain campaign, who chose to wait until Aug 29th - his birthday, only further accentuating the age issue -, the 3rd anniversary of katrina (which provides a nice segue to talk about Fay), and the DAY AFTER OBAMA's acceptance speech. Could the McC campaign have possibly picked a worse date??
Oh my gosh....NC Voter, I just realized the brilliance of this strategy. McCain is in big trouble. His numbers are going to plummet. Obama is a mastermind of the "new politics." I imagine even 18 million Clinton supporters think it is brilliant. The seniors and blue collar crowd are going bonkers. Expect a 20 pt shift in the polls by next Friday. Rockoboma, baby! Youth vote going to rock the house!
Obama has shown, every moment of the campaign... to be smart and thoughtful with his decisions.
I just dont get this whole chet Edwards stuff. The man has nothing to his name besides his faith and even Wiki has very little on him.
The problem is, I dont understand WHY they would attempt to bring it up. The only thing I could understand would be to maybe show some Evangelicals that he is not picking a very liberal candidate simply because he/she is very liberal and also considered someone with "Values"
It would be a minor headfake... but then again a very inefficient and senseless one.
Anybody have any other insight?? I just cant read this!
Seattle, I know it was a joke, and so was my response. I'm imagining Nate and Sean hearing disparate rumors from friends in the east by abiding by their vow to remain in the cone of silence for an hour, and then there's you and my own family out in the far west. What agony!
Well, Joe Biden is up to 78.0 on Intrade, so the news that its not Kaine or Bayh is having effect. The only other actively trading futures is Gen. Clark at 5.0.
Interesting that Chet Edwards doesn't even show up at all. A LOT of investors are going to be unhappy if he's picked.
A lot of Democrats too. It damn well better be Joe Biden at this point!
If Obama were to get us all worked up and then spring Chet Edwards!
You can just see millions of people going: "Chet Edwards? WTF? Who's he? I just looked the dude up on Wikipedia and he's a gay-bashing Southern Baptist! Screw this!"
Even the conservative deanscream is in anticpation for Obama's VP. If he picks a smart candidate, i will feel much more confiedent with him as pres, even if he does "cave" or "sell out." Sometimes you even have to maverick yourself to get the job done
hehehe you can tell when the RepubliClown trolls like Overrated start reverting to sarcasm without actually making a point, that they are worried.
The McCain action center must be promising a lifetime supply of saltwater-taffy to the troll that attempts to bury this issue the most!
Chet Edwards was Nancy Pelosi´s suggestion, I would guess it´s a nod to her. I remember her saying that she´s ultimately not interested in the VP-pick, she mainly wants to increase the Democratic majority in the house. And I guess Texas is the ultimate Republican stronghold to take. If Texas would turn a little more blue the Republicans would be in DEEP trouble. And since it´s GWB´s district it would be a very symbolic pick, too. So there are some reasons to enhance Edwards´ standing at least, maybe for a future Senate run or something...
However, someone who talked so openly about being on the short list was probably not chosen at all, I would guess.
I am glad that Bayh and Kaine are (obviously?) out. I want Obama to excite me (lame, I know) and these 2 did not do it, heck, even Clinton would be a better pick for me from that perspective. But I just didn´t want Obama to play it "safe".
Jake Tapper says that Secret Service has been dispatched to Biden's home, so that's the confirmation and scoop that makes it a done deal.
Joe Biden is Barack Obama's VP selection. Tapper scooped the text message.
Alex-I somewhat agree, but I think the whole Evan Bayh=Safe=No go is completely overrated and just junk, to say the least.
Evan Bayh is very respected in Indiana-people may not agree with him in the state on many issues, but they look to him as someone they do trust. Im not sure that could move the state over, but it could help along with some ad buys... atleast make it competitive.
Evan Bayh is not my personal pick. He never was. On a political level, it looks like an odd choice to even mention. But saying he is too "boring" trivializes the entire process and again, gives a tad bit of point to the McCain/GOP ockstar ads.
If the "pimply faced tweens" that the PUMA's and GOP'ers like to label us as know we throw out a candidate because he or she is "boring" than, again, it kind of gives them some ground.
The point about Bayh is that he is just wrong. He was a driving force on authorization on a war Barack has always been against. Besides that, he has no other real accomplishments besides being Gov of Indiana a while back... which-again... goes towards just pulling that state.
Geography may be a bit outdated, but two people from neighboring midwestern states does nothing really to help balance the ticket.
All around, minus the boring bayh factor, he is a bad pick anyway.
Although,...... a VP name "Birch" would be cool ;) /sarcasm
Olberman summed it up--Obama 1000-Press 0. What you all are feeling is a power shift. Wolf, Hannity, Andrea, Dobbs, etc no longer control the flow of news. We were at Conegate one week ago. Next time, keep the faith.
On Biden...
...in addition to the Secret Service protection, his committe chief of staff returned early from a Hawaii vacation to DC.
So all of this points to Biden. Unless the Secret Service is being used as a massive headfake, in which case there'd be plenty of backlash.
Turn off your cell phones, save the ten cents for the text message, because the Biden selection has hit ABC.
It seems that they totally outgamed themselves on the VP text timing. The whole interesting part was the suspense, but now that they've taken it to the deadline, we all know when it's coming. It would have been pretty exciting to get it this afternoon, and it would have created a buzz (and prevented me from getting pissed off whenever someone else texted me). But a Saturday morning text message? How anti-climatic. How many people in the text-messaging demographic are even going to be awake?
The only way I see a win for them is if they send it out NOW.
Ruling out Kaine, Clinton, and Bayh right now really leaves out little suspense
Our Blog wrote: Ruling out Kaine, Clinton, and Bayh right now really leaves out little suspense
You mean...you mean...it's John Edwards!!!
Secret Service Protection for Biden link....
http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/08/us-secret-servi.html
On the subject of "Big Text."
OK. I don't get it. And, being on the wrong side of the big five oh, I'll admit this might be a generational thing, even if I'm not voting for the wrinkly old white guy.
But, I don't get the fascination with getting the message, like personally, on my handset from, like Obama himself, as though he went into his Contacts list and carefully scrolled down to my name and then thumbed in the message to me and wrote something like:
"@TOD JTLYK that BLION I've picked HRC. This doesn't mean she's my BFF, but I think we'll win. LD. Barry"
I mean, what's with the fascination of getting the text when CNN, MSNBC and every web page that's obsessed with this decision will have it posted in about two to three nanoseconds after it's been sent.
Anyway, JMO. JW.
It's late. I've got to go to bed. Must have been the cognac. (That's something we guys on the wrong side of five oh sometimes drink after dinner, especially when it's the good stuff.)
CNN is reporting it's Biden.
Lol got to love us junkies, wonderful thread
as to the over/under of 6 for the convention bounce: what is the likely bounce in CO? with CO being a battleground state, the dem convention could tip it more than the reverse bounce from the rep convention later.
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