Barring unexpected developments, I'll be on Countdown with Keith Olbermann at about 7:30 PM Chicago time tonight. If you can wrestle the remote control away from your significant other and ditch the Opening Ceremonies for a few minutes, I hope that you'll be able to join me.
8.08.2008
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Congratulations! I know I'll be watching.
-Rhode Island X
Just don't fuck it up.
Ha Ha.
I'll be watching, Nate!
I'll take some credit for that. Several weeks ago, I linked to this excellent site from dKos on one of his comments and he said he's "check that out".... I'm assuming they called yoU?
ps: I hope you talk Baseball... Politics today is just sorta tired with the JRE crap
I can't wait to watch! I love your blog and I love Olbermann!
Awesome. He does a very good interview IMO.
Good luck.
I wonder if he will bring up the Edwards affair, or just pretend like it never happened.
Make sure to put your "I think I'm Edward R. Murrow but I'm clearly not" face on: mirroring works!
Cool...I watch it anyways, but thanks for the heads up.
Aren't you going to be stepping on Chuck Todd's toes though? ;)
Just make sure you don't say anything favorable about Obama. Somebody might think you support him or something.
Let's fact it guys, Keith Olbermann is just the left's answer to Bill O'Reilly minus, of course, the bullying attitude.
That said, I still like to watch it sometimes to get my "socialist" jollies off! :-P And of course any Nate Silver appearance is a net plus.
Nice going, Nate!!! I will watch.
Vacky: he do what McCain did about his own affair, and also what Sens Vitter, Craig, and Stevens have done with their own scandals (Stevens', sadly, lacks a sexual subtext) - - pretend they never happened. Good call.
sugerfunk:
I know what you mean. Why read Das Kapital when you can tune into Countdown and see a guy in a Santa suit falling on the hood of an SUV?
I'm looking forward to it.
I don't know if you guys have talked about this yet, but Evan Bayh was not given a speaking roll at the convention. I see that as a pretty good sign that he is your Vice-Presidential nominee.
I don't think so. It's just a sign that he is not a guy that they had room for. Is Biden speaking? Is Richardson? Is Clark? And is the final list of speakers really out?
I don't know chief, I was just passing on what I heard from a reliable source. I won't name it because you guys don't ever believe anything from that source. We shall see. :)
well, I am pretty willing to wager that John Edwards won't have a major role now! Guessing Olbermann's show will be mainly about Edwards and a little olympics. Edwards affair is EXACTLY the kind of story the press and esp. cable loves. Not sure who it hurts or helps between McCain/Obama, though the likelihood is neither will offer more than expressions of support and prayers for the Edwards. Initial take is the oxygen sucked out of the room by the olympics and the Edwards affair will be pretty much freeze the race until the conventions, and since Obama is ahead, that probably helps him, but who knows...Congrats, Nate. I hope you become a regular, since I think you crunch numbers in a way that is more nuanced and illuminating than what I see most other places. I will be watching on Tivo...
I love Countdown and can't wait to see your segment. Please mention the silence regarding McCain's infidelity versus the uproar over the non-candidate's affair.
Thanks.
Mule,
Why don't you start a letter-writing campaign and try and get me on O'Reilly? You can't invite yourselves on these things. But I'd be happy to do his show.
Darien - - thanks, boss! And now that I know that this came from Sludge or somewhere similar, I will take the appropriate action.
Which, of course, is hilarious that Nate is going on there, because his credibility will be going right down the shit-hole too...
Mule Rider, if you think Nate has zero credibility why do you come to this site repeatedly? Seriously? Do you just come to joust with Obama supporters?
Methinks you are contradicting yourself...
Plus, if you read my original post, I was agreeing with you that Olbermann doesn't have a lot of credibility. But his "Worst Person in the World" skit is a joke and is meant to be taken that way -- I thought you said that lefties have no sense of humor.
Awesome .. got it Tivo'd :)
I have to say that I was disappointed that Keith gave a good amount of airtime to the recent Zogby polls which were probably way off (Obama up in Alaska, Arizona, SC, etc).
But it will be great to have Nate on the show providing some REAL statistical analysis. can't wait!
And by the way, I'd love to see Nate on Bill or Shawn's show ... easier said than done
Let's fact it guys, Keith Olbermann is just the left's answer to Bill O'Reilly minus, of course, the bullying attitude.
Keith is every bit as much of an egotistical blowhard as O'Reilly or Dobbs, but he's much more entertaining.
Olbermann is the left's answer to O'Reilly. The difference is, Countdown factchecks.
As a fan of his show, I do not deny that Olberman is undoubtedly a liberal, self-righteous blowhard and in that sense, he’s the left’s “answer” to O’Rielly. And he often does offer bad, MSM-standard analysis (selective polls, etc.). However, unlike O’Rielly, Olberman uses a decent amount of logic in his crusade. But what I like most about Olberman is that unlike other MSNBC hosts and particularly CNN hosts, he doesn’t have a pretense of “fair and balanced,” which really means reporting any and all bullshit from politicians and not calling them on their bullshit. Basically, he’s more arrogant that most, but also more critical, intelligent, and logical—sadly, a rare combination in the traditional media circle. Hopefully one day Rachel Maddow will one day get her own show; she has all of Keith’s plusses without his negatives.
Waiting to see you Nate... I'll bet many of us depend on Keith for our news as we depend upon you for your analysis. No question I'll be here waiting to see you and my daughter about your age is in Thailand and I am going to let her know that you will be on Keith as she introduced me to the website. Break a leg.
Ugh-- I'm at an Olympics party (at my house) where at 7:30 one TV will be the Olympic ceremony and the other will be the Jeopardy Championship. In between commercials they'll probably use it for some Wii. I could care less about all of it and would much rather watch the second half of Countdown.
Maybe someone can dvr it and post a link to youtube for it? If someone's sufficiently high tech and nice. ;-)
Great to hear Nate, you have hit the big time my friend, our support is with you.
"7:30 PM Chicago time" Hey, what's that in real time, ya know Pacific time? ;)
Good luck, I'll check you out tomorrow in youtube.
Let's sum up:
Mule Rider:
Nate's got no balls if he won't go on O'Reilly's show!
Nate:
Good idea, Mule! How about show us how much nut you've got in your sack and help make it happen by writing a letter?
Mule Rider:
Err, umm, uhh... Me no like O'Reilly... Me prefer blame Nate... Nate biased...
Nice shout-out to Schweitzer and possible VP impacts on small states. Though I wouldn't have gone so far as to say being VP is a demotion for the governor of a big state.
Good job!...you seemed more composed and at ease than when you were on American Morning a while back. It seemed like Keith was more inclined to let you speak to what this site is really about than they were.
I just watched, Great Job! I completely love the site, and I really hope goodthings come your way.
Nice work, Nate. I like that you had the balls to say that your site is influencing the political stock market sites! Just try to smile more.
Nick: I agree wholeheartedly. So long as we see that Olbermann is not the whole answer, we can appreciate the awesome just fine :-)
And seconded on Maddow. Sooner she gets a show, the better. (She's getting one all right. Just a matter of whether before or after the election.)
Great job, Nate. I hope we see you on these types of shows a lot. One of the reasons I enjoy Countdown is the guests are often such excellent analysts.
You were great!! :D
Well done, Nate. As a long-time BP and 538 fan, I'm excited for your recent relative public success.
Nate, you were brilliant. How often do you have to wear a tie?
Looks like you're going to get a surge in traffic, Nate. :)
Great work Nate! But come on, what do the demographics say - its a Chicago year, the Cubs all the way!
And VC, you'll be happy to know that John Edwards was the top story on Countdown. I think there was both criticism of the hubris of trying to keep it from leaking during a Presidential campaign and what it meant to his wife.
Nate,
Good job, I switched from Pet Channel's Puppy Games just to see the interview.... my prediction is that you will be getting more and more exposure. But in those final good-bye wrap-up shots, a little more of a smile would be nice.
Kimo
it was ok, they should have had the upto date map though.
Excellent website - credit your appearance on KO for driving me here, credit the essay from your colleague on Mazen Ashbahi for keeping me here. Can't wait to explore further!
Nice job Nate.
And lets get real, the Rays are going all the way.
Nate!
You're good-looking!
Lift your head up! It seemed like you were always looking down!
Nice job Nate. You did an excellent job of condensing what you do into soundbite length while still being understandable. I'm sure they appreciated the shoutout to Chuck Todd, and I appreciated the Schweitzer mention too, would be nice to see him getting more mainstream Veepstakes attention.
My only nit - SMILE more! :)
I'm here because of your appearance on Countdown. Excellent job. Finally - a cogent, intelligent analysis of what the polls are saying.
You have been bookmarked!
Good job tonight. Love this site and wish more people and the talking heads would understand the difference between popular vote/likely voters and the electoral vote.
I like Keith for no other reason than he actually lets his guests make their point and almost always has intelligent people on to make their case.
Lookin good Nate. Nice job
OK.. you have a face. You appear humorless.. is that right? But I do have a serious question. You are saying on countdown that polls have a margin of error of 9 points. Ok so tell me what is the margin of error for a synthesis of polls like
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html
Certainly this narrows it down some.
I like Keith for no other reason than he actually lets his guests make their point and almost always has intelligent people on to make their case.
He tends not to interrupt people when they're speaking (or trying to), unlike, well, just about everyone else on television.
Mule Rider:
"Back to Keith O., I find it funny he's repeatedly slammed Fox News with so many superlatives yet they kick his ass repeatedly and handily in the ratings...isn't that like the Royals repeatedly getting their asses kicked by the Yankees and repeatedly calling them a shitty team afterwards."
No, no it is not. Here's something you probably don't realize, Mule...
Fox News is tabloid press.
Here, read the transcript of the 'debate' on the 'full digital nudity and sex' in the game "Mass Effect".
http://www.gamepolitics.com/2008/01/22/1993
If you like, watch the youtube clip at the end of the post. Those remarks were really what was said.
Then, the psychologist who was brought on to 'debate' the stated that she was given no information, and allowed no time to research.
http://www.gamepolitics.com/2008/01/26/cooper-lawrence-i-misspoke-about-mass-effect
It's not the first time, either.
Fox News has legally defended its right to pass fiction as truth.
Don't believe me? Well, you shouldn't have any problems searching for what Fox News was doing in a Florida appeals court during February 2003, as such a fine news organization would never be taken to court for LYING.
Then there's the Chris Wallace interview of Bill Clinton, in which 7 minutes and 30 seconds were supposed to be used for discussing his global initiative, then the remaining time for anything else.
How does it break down?
Check for yourself!
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=9026120716999978732
1:06 to 4:20, Discussing global initiative.
4:20: Wallace asks a question about why Clinton didn't get Osama bin Laden, AND HAS FOLLOW UP QUESTIONS, to goad Bill into talking to defend his actions in office. Mr. Clinton figures it out and realizes that the whole thing was a set-up for ratings, so he unloads on Wallace.
Ratings have to do with getting people to watch, and Fox News is almost singularly unburdened by little things like fact checking, obeying their own 'rules', or even telling its viewers real information.
So don't use ratings to say that Fox News has more merit.
It's a corporation run by a very greedy man who knows that sex sells and that people would rather hear a lie that suits them than the truth.
Any other news organization that has even a SHRED of journalistic integrity is therefore at a disadvantage against Fox in the ratings. Your amusement stems from ignorance of the truth; instead, you should be amused that Fox News sued Al Franken for trying to use 'Fair and Balanced' as part of a book title.
No sports team metaphor applies, because MSM and FOX are playing entirely different games.
anyone got a you tube link yet?
Actually, Countdown does win the timeslot among the 18-34 demographic.
You are saying on countdown that polls have a margin of error of 9 points. Ok so tell me what is the margin of error for a synthesis of polls like
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html
Certainly this narrows it down some.
What Nate meant by that was polls taken so far out have a 9 or so point margin of error as compared to the actual result of the election. The margin of error will shrink as we get closer to the actual election, but until then too much can change before anyone votes to really get an accurate grasp of the outcome.
If you were looking for a fairly accurate projection of how the vote would go if it happened today, the MOE would drop considerably, I'm sure.
anyone got a you tube link yet?
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3036677/
It's #3/
Nate, is your article on the "checkmate compromise" the reason you were booked on Countdown?
Great Job Nate. Let's hope to see you more on KO. He is an answer to O Rielly but he doesn't take himself all the seriously.
Good stuff, Nate. Next stop, race for the white house, then maybe chris matthews, then morning joe, then meet the press. Congratulations on being the new moderator of meet the press!
Great job on Countdown tonight Nate, felt like watching one of my own make it big lol.
Countdown brought me to your site as well. It is quite intelligent, as was your presentation - a reason why you fit so well on Countdown. Congrats.
As for the KO haters here, do you have any examples of Olbermann being factually wrong? Ever see him make up publications and make wild claims of moving public opinion?
Bloviating Bill-O most often gets hoisted upon his own words. That makes Worst Persons great entertainment, and I don't have to watch Boll-O's crap to get a whiff of what he's depositing over on Faux Gnus.
Free podcast of Countdown is available at iTunes. FYI.
Great job, Nate. It wouldn't hurt to smile a little. ;)
Excellent Nate. I think as the mad scientist you also get a special non-smiling dispensation.
I actually would like to hear more about your view of prediction markets.
My sense is that they are an enormously risk-loving lot so that they inflate low probabilities - basically, they love underdogs for the chance of an upset win netting them more than they invest (basically, my hunch is that an algorithm buying each Intrade contract offered above 50% is a winning formula). You're conservative, and the two paradoxically coincide. (While non-polling-based probabilities should increase Obama's chances, you rely on polls alone and consider their margin of error realistically, ending up with a rather high McCain probability - through a route very different from Intrade's).
But I did not look up the scholarship in the field. Would love to hear more.
Great Job Nate. Hope to see you on other shows
great job - nate, but when will the SF Giants win the World Series?
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