FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: McCain Now Winning Small Majority of Simulations

8.20.2008

McCain Now Winning Small Majority of Simulations

by Nate Silver @ 8:44 PM

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Full update coming shortly.

103 comments

editor said...: NOOOOOO!!!; August 20, 2008 8:48 PM
max said...: yesssssssssssssssssss
people finally seeing obama for the empty suit he is; August 20, 2008 8:49 PM
Andrew said...: Great, thanks Nate, now we can look forward to Karl Rove touting this all weekend.; August 20, 2008 8:50 PM
Felix Macacawitz said...: Once they release the anti-America propaganda films that John McCain created in Vietnam in exchange for favorable treatment, thing won't look so good for Mr. McCain.; August 20, 2008 8:50 PM
Koziol said...: Lame. But i'm sure the campaign isn't as concerned as the political junkies. It doesn't matter how he's doing in august, it matters what happens on election day.; August 20, 2008 8:51 PM
Jonathan said...: I am suddenly overcome with nausea.; August 20, 2008 8:52 PM
tomthress said...: Yet Obama's still got the higher average EV? That's curious. Of course, I guess the bottom line is simply that it's a pure tossup.

Nate, I am curious. In terms of national polls, it seems to be the case that Obama's dropping in support moreso than McCain actually gaining - if anything, McCain seems to remain stuck in the 42-43 range. This is less true of states, though, where several states have seen actual drops by Obama.

From your numbers, how much of the tightening of the race is due to a decline by Obama vs. how much is due to an increase by McCain?; August 20, 2008 8:52 PM
hosertohoosier said...: "Once they release the anti-America propaganda films that John McCain created in Vietnam in exchange for favorable treatment, thing won't look so good for Mr. McCain."

I think Obama accidentally taped over that one, when he was recording the Michelle "whitey" tape.; August 20, 2008 8:53 PM
Koziol said...: Oh, also I was looking at RCP's list of recent senate polling and it looks Highly favorable to the Dems.

Nate, Maybe you could run those numbers to soften the blow?; August 20, 2008 8:53 PM
Bernard von Schulmann said...: Cool, a result that is good for Canada if he wins....; August 20, 2008 8:53 PM
eponymous said...: Just curious:

If McCain is winning more than half of the simulations, why is your electoral vote projection still favoring Obama?

Nate will probably answer this (or I suppose update the graphic) but I was wondering if anyone here had more insight on the methodology that might explain it.; August 20, 2008 8:54 PM
Mark said...: It ain't over 'til it's over...; August 20, 2008 8:54 PM
Mark said...: eponymous,

My guess is McCain's victories are mostly small (judging by the EV Distribution Chart) while Obama is more likely to win more comfortably when he wins. The most common result is Obama falling just short of the magic 270 EV mark.; August 20, 2008 8:55 PM
eponymous said...: Mark,

Thanks, that makes sense looking at the EV distribution.; August 20, 2008 8:57 PM
Chuck said...: I like the Drudge siren!; August 20, 2008 8:57 PM
editor said...: Enjoy it Johnny Mac. It'll be gone within 48 hours. The race will remain virtually tied (minus the convention bounces) up until the debates. After that, whoever has the ball last wins. My bet is on the guy with superior ground game.; August 20, 2008 8:57 PM
hosertohoosier said...: tomthress,

That is not surprising at all that Obama has a higher average EV total, because McCain is very unlikely to win a landslide.

If McCain won all the Bush states, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Oregon are the only Kerry states where he has a non-negligible chance of winning. For a landslide he would have to win all of those. That is going to be way out in the tail of any probability distribution.

For Obama, Ohio, Nevada, Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Indiana and Missouri all carry non-negligible chances of victory. Winning all or most of those, while holding onto the Kerry states is unlikely, but would produce a higher EV total than McCain has.

Nate's graph illustrates this visually. Look at how much fatter the electoral vote distribution curve is in the really high numbers, versus the really low ones.; August 20, 2008 8:59 PM
Darío said...: Now it´s McCain leaning CO in the Nate proyection.
He´s lenaning the EV now.; August 20, 2008 9:00 PM
Nickname unavailable said...: At this rate it will be a landslide by November.; August 20, 2008 9:00 PM
De Montfort said...: @nickname unavailable:

Right, because nothing big could happen in the rest of the campaign lol...certainly nothing in the next 48 hours.; August 20, 2008 9:04 PM
tomthress said...: "For Obama, Ohio, Nevada, Virginia, Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Indiana and Missouri all carry non-negligible chances of victory."

I agree with the basic point, but Missouri (13%), Indiana (15%), and North Carolina (18%) are getting relatively close to "negligible". Obama's odds of winning Missouri are the same, as of now, as McCain's odds of winning New Jersey, and McCain's odds of winning Wisconsin (19%) are higher than Obama's odds in any of these three states.

All of which really goes to reinforce the idea that the driving factor is the national spread - Obama had more strength in red states than McCain had in blue states for most of the summer primarily because he was ahead in the popular vote.; August 20, 2008 9:06 PM
DCM in FL said...: Well, at least for the moment Obama still has the EV advantage although ever so slightly.

Will be interesting to see which pollls moved the distribution so much today. That Zogby one seems like an outlier compared to all the others released in the past 2-3 days.

Again all these Rasmussen releases showing huge swings seem to be pushing the trends an awful [and I stress awful] lot.

But, this should be GREAT news for a surge in Obama donations if nothing else !; August 20, 2008 9:06 PM
Nicholas said...: Wow. Wasn't Obama at 66% last weekend? Yikes. And I feel sick.

But here's what I hope will happen...Obama will pick an awesome VP, the convention will go greatly and unify the Dem base, and the GOP convention will only highlight the current ridiculous Republican party and not at all help McCain.; August 20, 2008 9:10 PM
Jack said...: Economics, foreign policy, terrorism, new direction--pshaw. This election is strictly race and religion. Jack; August 20, 2008 9:10 PM
Franco said...: Nate...you working for Rassmussen has fukked your brain...this site now officialy has become a home for wingnuts..go farg yourself nate

CIAO; August 20, 2008 9:11 PM
Darren said...: Seeing the polls tighten, it occurred to me that McCain winning a third term for the GOP would not be unusual.

Since WWII, incumbent parties have made 6 attempts at a third term: 1948, 1960, 1968, 1976, 1988, and 2000.

The first four all had an unpopular incumbent at the start of the gemeral election - Truman, Eisenhower, Johnson, and Nixon/Ford. In fact the environment in 1968 and 1976 was at least as toxic for the incumbent party as for the GOP today. 1988 and 2000 had a more even playing field, but there was still Reagan-fatigue and Clinton-fatigue.

Yet in 2 out of 6 the incumbent party won a third term (1948 and 1988). And more interestingly, all of the 4 losing races were extremely close. 1960, 1968, and 2000 were decided by 0.5% or less. 1976 by 2%.

So history favors a close race this year if not outright victory for the incumbent GOP. Voters have shown no strong inclination to switch parties even in hostile environments.; August 20, 2008 9:11 PM
Michael said...: Took awhile, but McCain finally is on the verge to taking a lead. These polls are disastrous for Obama. He'll get his bounce next week, but it will be gone before you know it after the GOP Convention.

MCCAIN 2008; August 20, 2008 9:12 PM
DCM in FL said...: NATE,

PLEASE give us access to an archive of your past daily charts, graphs & trackers.

I would like to reference your earlier projections as needed [like today].

You have provided links for the archived daily blogs on the lower left side of the page, but the daily data would be much more useful for those of us here who really want to analyze the data.

PLEASE PROVIDE A LINK TO AN ARCHIVE OF THE DAILY DATA PROJECTIONS.

Thanks.; August 20, 2008 9:13 PM
Tito said...: It's fun to see the McCainites get all breathlessly excited because they are now running even with Obama. This is jump ball guys, not victory.; August 20, 2008 9:14 PM
Tristram said...: The scenario analysis is interesting here. Obama still has a 25% shot at Florida, but he almost never wins FL without OH, and if he wins OH he almost always wins the election anyway. So the model is making FL a significant source of average electoral votes for Obama but not a tipping point state at all. I think that alone explains McCain winning more runs but Obama averaging more electoral votes.; August 20, 2008 9:15 PM
Casey said...: My tally switched based on August 8 polls, below is a blog post I wrote after that weekend.

I reached my conclusion based on the extrapolated projection of undecideds in turn based on leaners (and now, also independents). Those same factors that showed Obama going south in the EV count are now showing some recovery, well timed for the convention. My tally still has McCain ahead 275 - 263, but Obama's portion of undecideds has improved by ~5% since and a few states are within a point of flipping back in his favor.

Electoral Vote Score; it happened today
Monday, August 11, 2008 at 11:30pm
---------
For the first time since I began keeping score on May 23, according to the create date on my file, my electoral vote projection is showing McCain ahead 275 - 263. Up until the end of last week, my numbers had been steady -- the same numbers that anticipated Obama scoring Montana and North Dakota before general election polls were released for those states, before those released polls were dubbed outliers but then later accepted. I've had Obama winning with anywhere between 309 and 321 electoral votes for a large portion of that time; there was a dip or two into 290s and a brief trip to 340s, but otherwise steady.

So what happened? Florida, Michigan, & Rasmussen happened.

Florida flipped to McCain last week, which wasn't really much of a surprise -- I think it's been McCain's all along and not something I worried too much about since while Ohio is currently showing for McCain, I think it ultimately belongs to Obama.

Enter Friday's Rasmussen numbers: 47% - 40% Obama, with leaners: 49% - 45% Obama. Obama's still up, what's the problem? Leaners. Michigan leaners are breaking for McCain nearly 3 to 1. In my moving average, I use the pollsters' scores, then attempt to make up the remaining difference by using Rasmussen's numbers to anticipate where undecideds will go. In this case, 49% to 45% becomes 50.7% to 49.3% -- still a win, but that 3 to 1 projection is also retroactively applied to previous polls, which brought the average down enough to flip it.

I think it will go back, or Rasmussen is wrong or my methodology is wrong and it hasn't flipped at all; Obama is certainly leading in national polls (mean score of 46% - 42% from 12 polls) and it would be rather unlikely to have a margin of that magnitude and lose on the electoral count.; August 20, 2008 9:16 PM
SarahLawrenceScott said...: It's possible that in part we're seeing an "anti-bounce" before the Convention. The question of VP, roll call, etc., kind of resurrect the Democratic nominating process for a few days. If you badly want Hillary to be VP (or even hold out hope for a miracle which puts her at the top of the ticket), it's hard to think about what you'll do if it doesn't happen. So some Hillary supporters slip into "undecided" when asked about an Obama McCain race.

If that's true, we'll see a particularly large Obama bounce if the convention goes well. Even if it goes poorly, the mere fact of a resolution will shift some of those undecideds back into his camp.

Of course, that's just a hypothesis on my part, and it may be wishful thinking. If Obama's slippage is actually due primarily to the success of negative attacks on him, then it's not an "anti-bounce" but a real decline.

Time will tell.; August 20, 2008 9:17 PM
Ben said...: I don't like this one bit either but "these polls are disastrous" ?

What a bunch of bull.; August 20, 2008 9:17 PM
mikelow1885 said...: Looking at the latest batch of Senate polling, it does really appear that the public is voting for divided government. It's saying, we like the Democrats, but we can't trust Obama to defend the country and its values.; August 20, 2008 9:18 PM
DCM in FL said...: more on the ARCHIVES request for 538 data.

or better yet, why can't the daily data for the actual date of the archived blogs be presented when they are accessed ?

when I go back to see an archived blog [like from June], the page displays showing the current day's data projections [which I find oddly unsatisfying & can be confusing since no date is provided for the data displayed].; August 20, 2008 9:18 PM
Tito said...: DCM -

I would like to see that too, but I don't know if that's possible. Could be that whatever program generates the simulations automatically spits out the chart graphic and over-writes the previous one. Hopefully they'd archive on a day-to-day basis, but this all seems so automated too.; August 20, 2008 9:19 PM
max said...: is NH getting within a point in rasmussen aleady factored in; August 20, 2008 9:20 PM
Virginia Conservative said...: August is the month,August is the month, told you!; August 20, 2008 9:20 PM
tomthress said...: "The scenario analysis is interesting here. Obama still has a 25% shot at Florida, but he almost never wins FL without OH, and if he wins OH he almost always wins the election anyway. So the model is making FL a significant source of average electoral votes for Obama but not a tipping point state at all."

More generally, when the election is this close, the assumptions one makes about correlations between states becomes crucially important. Obama still seems to have more paths to victory (although some of last month's paths are disappearing (MO, IN, NC) and McCain is gaining new paths (PA, WI)). If state probabilities are independent that would seem to favor Obama, whereas if state probabilities are dependent the increased number of paths for Obama is less important than the fact that he's the underdog (even if only slightly) in states w/ a majority of EVs.

I don't remember exactly from the FAQ/descriptions of methodology: Are the correlations that Nate uses the result of empirical study or are they largely assumed?; August 20, 2008 9:21 PM
Peter said...: this royally SUCKS. whatev, there are still 2 1/2 months left.; August 20, 2008 9:22 PM
NJ_Moderate said...: When the Democratic sponsored PPP poll shows a whopping 10% lead in the Missouri race for McCain, then McCain should be leading in most of the projections. OH looks like it sliding away rapidly too.; August 20, 2008 9:23 PM
Virginia Conservative said...: Virginia is out of reach, NC, IN, and MO are gone, OH is slipping away, Florida is a non starter, and Colorado is fading.

Time is running out for Mondal...er...Dukak...er...Ker...I mean Obama. So hard to tell!; August 20, 2008 9:24 PM
Rudy said...: That looks an awful lot like a 4 at the front of Obama's win probability.

Likely short-lived, and he'll undoubtedly bounce nicely next week. Post-Labor Day will be much more significant than now.; August 20, 2008 9:24 PM
Virginia Conservative said...: Start the conspiracies about Diebold machines now, liberals!; August 20, 2008 9:25 PM
MATT J. H. said...: MUCH NEEDED NEWS

The Obama camp has been non-existent for 2 months and this was bound to happen. And McCain deserves the move in polls. Obama has been M.I.A. his campaign has been slow, uncoordinated and weak. Theres more to an election than a ground game.

This may prompt Obama to do something about this and get his campaign sorted out. He still leads on all domestic issues by large amounts. Maybe he'll stop behaving so casually and start campaigning like he's in the dog fight that he's in. You can't coast to an election for President. The first African American candidate isn't going to walk to the oval office in a breeze it's going to be a dog fight and maybe Obama realizes it now.; August 20, 2008 9:26 PM
SarahLawrenceScott said...: tomthress--my recollection is that the correlations are based on state demographics and physical geographical distance. I don't remember how Nate decided to weight the geographical distance factor, though.; August 20, 2008 9:27 PM
DCM in FL said...: Casey

good post above. thanks for sharing it. The Rasmussen effect is quite noticeable as all the tracking sites are overly influenced by his releases.

Scott R.'s thumb on the scale for producing the data is apparent in the internals, and so he is allowed to drive the trend narrative far more than should be rationally possible.

For instance, GA release yesterday. When RR released, the comments said that initially there were 5% Barr but when pushed that number drops to 1% Barr [and increased McCain's spread].

An hour later, RR changed their commentary narrative and started saying that there were [only] 3% initially that chose Barr [-2] and when pushed that dropped to 1%.

makes me go hhhmmmm. which was actually correct ? either way it is massaging the results for an apparent partisan purpose [IMO] - and it is working again this year !

wish Nate would cut his ties with RR as they use his projections to back up theirs - but Nate's projections are highly reliant on Rasmussen data so all he is doing is reinforcing the questionable stuff they release !

Nate, Rasmussen is using you, bud. They are way too heavily influencing this site's model for fair & balanced projections. GIGO; August 20, 2008 9:27 PM
hosertohoosier said...: dcm,

It doesn't matter that Obama gets a higher average number of E.V's, since that, like the popular vote, is an irrelevant statistic. I don't mean that the president isn't selected by the EV, of course, I mean that Obama's EV lead is mostly because of landslide scenarios.

Building on what I was saying to tomthress, you may note that Obama has a 12.1% chance of a landslide, while McCain only has a 7.54% chance of the same. Winning a landslide isn't all that useful, however, except possibly giving the president a stronger mandate with which to pistol-whip congress.

Assuming the average McCain or Obama landslide was a 400 EV win (so imagine cutting off all results other than landslides for candidate a or b), Obama's average EV edge is 18.24 (using the figures from the scenario analysis).

However Obama's actual EV lead is only 6.5. So in the 80.36% of non-landslide cases, McCain must lead by...

6.5 = .1964(18.24) + .8036(X)

X = 3.63

So Obama leads by about 3.63 EV's, on average, in non-landslide cases.; August 20, 2008 9:28 PM
Virginia Conservative said...: You know, its not too late for Hillary! The superdelegates could look at this and give it to her...; August 20, 2008 9:31 PM
PeteKent said...: For weeks I have been noting that the EV dispersion graph was shifting towards McCain and was insulted and shouted down by the Obamabots here.

Now I can say "I told you so!"

It's immature, I know, but the level of discourse and willingness to see things for the way they are is so lacking that I have no choice but to crow about my vindication.

It seems many of you cannot see the forest for the trees.

The question is, what will the VP picks and conventions do to the dynamic?

What is clear is that this race is by no means a foregone conclusion for Obama, and that McCain has the ability to win this thing.

This is no longer a race to be enjoyed by the Obamabots as they bask in self-congratulatory mental gymnastics.

McCain has shown that he has the issues: taxes, energy and the war to best Obama. The Russian bear has risen up again, thrusting foreign policy and security issues back into the national consciousness. Poll after shows McCain has the advantage by wide margins on the experience and commander in chief issues.

These advantages cannot be easily permanently erased. Ebullient addresses may help temporarily to pump up his numbers, but lacking a coherent plan for America, other than retreat in the Middle East, higher taxes and . . . I am not sure what else . . . is not a recipe for success.

Not being Bush is not enough. Come January 2009 there will be no Bush in the White House.

Obama had better get an independent rationale for his candidacy soon and he better figure out how to counter the allegations of radicalism and radical associations that are rapidly overtaking his candidacy.

The crowds and the cheering are not enough. Hope and change are just slogans unless you stand for something.

As McCain says: Don't hope for a better life -- Vote for one!

McCain - Portman '08; August 20, 2008 9:32 PM
Franco said...: Hey Virginia Conservative go farg ypurself, you and your ditto-head tag team ass-sukkas are a bunch of losers....Virginia is out of reach for closet cases like you and Queen Lindsay Graham and the rest of the old troll McSames's butt-boys; August 20, 2008 9:32 PM
johnmccainissoold said...: You mean Barack Dukakis is no longer kicking ass?

Dear Democrats: this is what happens when you campaign like weenies.; August 20, 2008 9:32 PM
Virginia Conservative said...: You're a classy dude, Franco.; August 20, 2008 9:34 PM
Michael said...: I love the Obama folks on this board who chime about the 'ground game'. Well, that ground game is being run by the same people who have managed Obama's collapse as reflected in the polls for the month of August. We have heard nothing but superlatives about the 'perfect' Obama campaign.
The numbers don't lie. McCain's campaign team is smashing Obama's right now. I suspect the McCain team are just as good at microtargeting their voters as they were in 2004. On the basis of results so far I am not impressed with any game the Obama people are playing.; August 20, 2008 9:35 PM
SalP7 said...: Looks like the Dems may be shooting themselves in the foot again. Got to go with Hillary as VP to win or possibly Biden to squeak by.; August 20, 2008 9:37 PM
DCM in FL said...: HOSE,

smooth the [superimposed curve & the point of balance appears to be right at or just ever so slightly in the RED side now below 270 on the EV distribution - most likely at the 268 Obama EV point.

The current projection makes little sense with otherwise with the popular % at a tie and the win % also below 50, then predictive analysis would combine all those trends in the data. If not today, soon baring additional data not yet fulkly factored into the simulations in my analytical experience.

I think that when Nate finishes running all his data, Obama's EV projection will also be adjusted down just below 269 [tie]. IMO

I would now consider taking the 269 parlay bet which is sure looking better every day lately !; August 20, 2008 9:38 PM
tomthress said...: "my recollection is that the correlations are based on state demographics and physical geographical distance."

Which sounds pretty reasonable in theory, but I wonder, has the accuracy of this relationship been studied?

Take Michigan and Ohio, for example. Demographically or geographically, these are pretty similar states with Michigan being slightly but clearly more Democratic. As a result, it's assumed that if Obama loses Michigan, he's all but certain to also lose Ohio and with it the election (I'm guessing this is true of Nate's model; if it's not, then essentially turn the question on its head, "Should the model be assuming this?"). If a loss in Michigan doesn't affect Obama's odds in Ohio as much, though, so he's still got, say, a 30-35% chance of winning OH if he loses MI, then losing MI doesn't necessarily translate into the guaranteed Obama loss that Nate may be assuming (I'm guessing - he doesn't actually show what Obama's odds of winning are if he loses MI).

While as somebody who's rooting for Obama to win, these numbers are disappointing, I have to admit that the math geek in me thinks that a 50/50 race is much more interesting mathematically.; August 20, 2008 9:39 PM
hillaryclinton4barackobama said...: New Pro-Obama book coming out soon ...

Digg It :

http://digg.com/2008_us_elections/Obama_s_Challenge_by_Robert_Kuttner_Chelsea_Green

Pre-order at Amazon at Reduced Price ...; August 20, 2008 9:41 PM
Franco said...: and YOU Virginia Consetrvative are a neoCON mothafukka...so go farg yourself you freeper troll.
Classy ...my fat arze..you reTHUG horseshyt idiots wouldn't know class if it stuck you in your racist arzes; August 20, 2008 9:42 PM
Tristram said...: SLScott: According to the FAQ (Step 6, though the key link is broken), correlation is indeed based on demographics - no mention of physical proximity. Even so, I'm surprised the model produces the very tight correlation between FL and OH that I mentioned. Are these states more similar than I imagine?; August 20, 2008 9:42 PM
MATT J. H. said...: This is good news democrats. Obama has been campaigning like a pussy, it's like watching Al Gore or John Kerry right before our eyes.

You can't play defense for 2 months and hope to hold on to a lead. it's amazing it lasted this long. Obama is lucky the convention is coming, he needs it, as well as a new communications director.

McCain is on the march, he looks confident and he's driving the narrative. His campaign has mopped Obama's since early July. This is why republicans win elections they should not win. They're campaign has been a smear Machine against Obama and Obama's unwillingness to get in the mud has cost him his entire lead. But its early. Nothing like a good scare to shake things up.

If Obama can get on the attack and push the narrative, he'll still win, but he's got to fight for it. Its a battle for who wants it more, and McCain is mopping the floor right now.; August 20, 2008 9:43 PM
PeteKent said...: "New Pro-Obama book coming out soon "

What? The Koran?

I could not resist.; August 20, 2008 9:44 PM
SarahLawrenceScott said...: This post has been removed by the author.; August 20, 2008 9:44 PM
DCM in FL said...: PETE,

ok, to refresh your memory as you pat yourself on whatever body part it is...

we pointed out to you that the shift was actually a return or regression toward the mean of the entire campaign cycle of polling & projections, bud.

Yes, it is indisputable that the shift has moved right to the middle which is precisely back to where it all was in late spring before Obama was ahead, after McCain was ahead, now back to basically even up...

nate predicted this regression back in June, and I think even he forgot that in the heady days of July...

but crow all you want.

it is August, not October when it starts to matter for real.

in the meantime, you seem to be generally behaving so thanks for playing nice!; August 20, 2008 9:44 PM
Walsh '08 said...: Barack Obama should channel Shakespeare:

John McCain served his country in War and Senate; yes, John McCain is an honorable man.

John McCain stood up for campaign finance reform; yes, John McCain is an honorable man.

John McCain embraced the Karl Roves of the Bush administration, the men who slandered him and his family; for John McCain is a honorable man.

John McCain supported the Iraq war, told us we would be greeted as liberators, perpetuated the inaccuracy of WMDs, and has failed to understand the difference between Sunni and Shiite, and is against any timetable for withdraw; but, John McCain is an honorable man.

John McCain has changed his position on lobbyists, his top foreign policy advisor was a lobbyist until March for the country of Georgia, a major conflict of interest when forming a foreign policy, yet John McCain is honorable man.

John McCain’s promise of energy independence has been flushed away with his drill here, drill now policy; yet John McCain is honorable man.

John McCain promised run a positive campaign on issues, but now feels the need to attack my patriotism; John McCain is an honorable man.

John McCain has abandoned his economic principles and now is for Bush tax cuts for the wealthy, and tax cuts for the corporations that ship jobs overseas; yes, John McCain is an honorable man.

Senator McCain, I will not attack your service, but you have shown no honor by attacking mine. This election is about policy and our future. You have showed no respect to me or the American people with your consent distortions of the facts, your pandering to the extremes of your party, and your collusion with lobbyists and oil company. These are not the things of honor.

Senator McCain, the nation and I expected more for you. We believed that you were different than the current administration. We believed you were to run a campaign with dignity, and honor your word and your principles. Be break from the past eight years. But now, I can only say

Et tu, John? Et tu, John?; August 20, 2008 9:44 PM
SarahLawrenceScott said...: Tomthress and Tristram:

Here's the original post describing the state similarity system:

link

Geographic distance is in there, and it's based on an ANOVA of the 2004 results and 2008 so far.; August 20, 2008 9:45 PM
hosertohoosier said...: "I have to admit that the math geek in me thinks that a 50/50 race is much more interesting mathematically."

That is because you are not a politics junkie. I could have watched the 1964 election, and been excited about which way Arizona would go. I once stayed up till 3 am during the 2000 Canadian election to see if the Progressive-Conservative party would win 11 or 12 seats (if they won 12 they would be an official party, and get slightly more time in question period).

The people that figure Clinton or Gore to be real WOW factor picks are rather uncreative. I think Obama should pick a random guy who shares the name of Abraham Lincoln or John Kennedy. Okay I guess I am not creative either, since I sort of stole that from The Distinguished Gentleman.; August 20, 2008 9:47 PM
tomthress said...: Thanks for the link, Sarah!; August 20, 2008 9:49 PM
Darío said...: Hey VA Cons,

I say that August is the month too.; August 20, 2008 9:53 PM
PeteKent said...: DCM:

By regression to the mean, which mean do you mean?

Bush - Dukakis 1988?

I think we ae beginning to see the makings of a McCain blowout unless Obama can arrest the increasing perception that he is a radical in non-partisan clothing. Slowly, but surely he is being exposed for his extremist views. The abortion issue being the first. It will hang like a noose around his neck now that he has been caught in what I will call the infanticide lie.

Next: Taxes are the Solution for Everything.

To Come: The Radical Associations.; August 20, 2008 9:54 PM
Drowzee said...: Well, crud.

There is still time, but this isn't looking good.

However, I'm wondering how much the media is complicit in this, especially if Obama Fatigue is setting in. He has ideas and policy, but news outlets seem to love killing him with his own inspiring sound bites over the content of his speeches.

Well, now that Obama appears to be going on the offensive, perhaps that will change, and the huge media attention on him can be used to put McCain on the spot.

If Obama starts seriously slinging mud at McCain, the soundbites will raise a lot of problems for McCain's branding.

Stupid, isn't it? It's like the prisoner's dilemma, with McCain constantly choosing negative, and racking up the points until now.; August 20, 2008 9:55 PM
Tristram said...: SlScott -
Thanks as well. That looks like one of the most interesting posts on the site.; August 20, 2008 9:58 PM
P.G. said...: An explanation is this: Obama loses more number of simulations but he loses them by on the average lower margin and therefore the net expectation of electoral votes for him is higher; August 20, 2008 10:01 PM
realistxxx said...: Note: I made a similar post in one of those 200+ threads that sucks comments into a blackhole, at least for me, so excuse me if I am repeating myself.

Although I hoped for the numbers from June/July to hold steady or improve, I can't say I am surprised by the tightening now.

Non-incumbent elections are almost always close and considering there is a very young black outsider as the D nominee, why is anyone surprised?

Everytime I think about this race, I can't escape the Ali/Forman, Rumble in the Jungle analogy, in Zaire.

Obama is a like a tactical boxer (Ali), whereas McCain is a brawler (Forman). Anyone my age remembers watching the early rounds where Ali just hung on the ropes allowing Forman to pummel him. As an Ali fan I was very concerned, but the rope a dope strategy was designed to get Forman to punch himself out. He did and then in the later rounds Ali destroyed the tired Forman. Ali clearly used this strategy due to the heat and humidity in Zaire (A good friend's father, a huge Forman fan, always said that if they had fought in MSG, Forman would have killed him)

So how is this relevant to Obama v. McCain. Well first, we all know after dismantling the Clinton machine Obama is a tactical boxer. It is also important to note, that Kerry, Gore and Dukakis are "Jerry Quarry's" compared to Obama's political talent.

McCain is a brawler (as are most Republicans), and he is throwing haymaker after haymaker. Right now he looks strong and the MSM who view politics as blood sport are cheering him on. However, he isn't landing a KO.

Heat and Humidity... The head winds are clearly against the Republicans this year. This is not a neutral/traditional venue like MSG. Clearly, McCain is gaining on the judges scorecards (polls), but he is punching himself out. In October how bored will everyone be with his attacks on Obama.

Some caveats. Obama's best punch was his change narrative. This is like Ali's straigh right hand (devastating). McCain as a PERCEIVED maverick pretty much neutralizes Obama's best punch. Finally, ageism vs. racism who knows? Likely a wash, but that is just my opinion.

Look for Obama and his campaign to start hitting back after the convention. Don't think Dukakis v. Bush I, Gore v. Bush II or Kerry v. Bush II... these D's are club fighters, at best. Think more Reagan v. Carter; Clinton v. Bush I or Ali v. Forman.; August 20, 2008 10:06 PM
Bill P. said...: Until we Democrats learn to lie, cheat, steal, name call, play wedge issues, and recite our messages in bumper-sticker format, we will have a hard time winning the White House.

You don't fight evil by playing nice. Conservatism is evil; Republicans are evil. Play dirty and win, or be principled and kneel before the winners while feeling real good about yourself because you stayed out of the gutter.

People whine about 'negative campaigning', but it wins. Every time.

It's time for Obama to kneecap McCain and stop with the 'high ground' crap. Time to go Tanya Harding on the old wrinkley dude.; August 20, 2008 10:07 PM
OTF said...: This post has been removed by the author.; August 20, 2008 10:19 PM
OTF said...: DCM in FLA,

You are dead on and I have been saying it for a month now. Rasmussen has being changing party ID and demographics in his state polls to favor McCain to create a narrative. Many other pollster are doing similiar things. The Party ID is easily findable on state election board websites and the radically shift that have been displayed in crosstabs the last month are unexplained.

I have sent an email to Nate with data showing the real party ID as of July 2008 and the request for him to post it to make it obvious which pollsters are skewing the demographics and party ID numbers. The actual party ID should be posted along side a state poll in the daily polls section. Polls with obvious errors in party ID should be weighted less b/c they are erroneous sampling.; August 20, 2008 10:21 PM
Rudy said...: Evil, Bill P? You think conservatives are evil, and you want to kneecap McCain? You're overdue for another dose of lithium.; August 20, 2008 10:21 PM
realistxxx said...: OTF said...

I have sent an email to Nate with data showing the real party ID as of July 2008 and the request for him to post it to make it obvious which pollsters are skewing the demographics and party ID numbers. The actual party ID should be posted along side a state poll in the daily polls section. Polls with obvious errors in party ID should be weighted less b/c they are erroneous sampling.

-------------

In the latest WSJ/NBC poll Obama's deficit is almost totally explained by undecided's and McCaim Dems. I don't think pary ID is skewing results dramatically. This is actually good news for Obama, he just needs to bring these wayward Dems home.

Hillary for VP, anyone?; August 20, 2008 10:26 PM
Bill P. said...: Rudy -

Evil is as evil does.

Sticking government's nose into a woman's healthcare decisions is evil.

Cutting food programs is evil.

Invading Iraq was evil.

Questioning Barack Obama's patriotism is evil.

Hmmm...perhaps that lithium bottle has your name on it after all.; August 20, 2008 10:29 PM
OTF said...: Bill P,

There was a report out today that of the 10,000 ads Obama ran this last week 9,000 were critical of McCain as negative ads. It depends on where you are. The national ads running on the Olympics are highly positive. As states before just take a look at the party ID in polls from july to august. They are selling a bunch of goods with Rasmussen at the head and other pollsters are doing the same, namely Survey USA. Remarkeable that in one state you have 10 point party Id shift and demographic shift with 1/2 the number of AA, 3/4 less Hispanics and 7% more whites in one month. I guess there was a mass exodus. Btw, the were both LV polls so it's not a RV vs LV thing.; August 20, 2008 10:30 PM
Subterranean said...: (1) McCain needs to win, for the sake of the rest of the world. Those goddamn pussies have got to learn to stand up for themselves and stop letting the USA push them around. An Obama administration would be entirely too sane, and would fail to provoke this final neutering of US influence.

(2) Do you guys realize there's no censor on this site? You needn't write "fukk" or "f__k" or "farg". "Fuck" does nicely.; August 20, 2008 10:33 PM
OTF said...: Realistixx,

I'm not talking about national polls. When we have the presidential elction decided by pure popular vote I'll car about national polls.

Look at the state polls July to Aug by the same pollsters and notice some of them have dramatic shifts in party ID and demographics.; August 20, 2008 10:35 PM
Bill P. said...: OTF -

Good point. I'd heard that Obama was airing ads telling the truth about John McCain under the radar.

I'd like to see those nationally. I want to see McCain exposed for what he was: A likely traitor who is rumored to have appeased his captors at every turn, a worthless cheat who divorced his ailing wife to marry rich, an opportunistic politician who alternately wears and sheds the 'maverick' label depending on whether it suits him.

That's the real McCain. And it's time for Obama to paint the true picture.; August 20, 2008 10:37 PM
Jackson said...: I actually prefer Obama be behind, in fact, I hope he's slightly behind in the week before Election Day. It's the best GOTV you can get among young voters if they're scared he might not win.; August 20, 2008 10:38 PM
Jackson said...: Hillary for VP, anyone?

Still a terrible idea.

Looking at the internals, over 40$ of McCain's voters are voting "lesser of 2 evils", and another 40% are merely satisfied. Less than 20% are excited to vote for Mccain.

For Obama, the numbers are turned...nearly 45% of his voters are "excited", and only about 20% find him merely the "lesser of two evils".

Hillary is an excitement damper, especially the way Obama's supporters feel about her and her husband's behavior during the primaries.

On the other hand, McCain's streak this past week may make him cocky enough to choose a VP that snubs the GOP base.

It's the perfect time for McCain to take a slight lead...for Obama.; August 20, 2008 10:51 PM
Darren said...: Bill P wrote
I'd like to see those [negative ads] nationally. I want to see McCain exposed for what he was: A likely traitor who is rumored to have appeased his captors at every turn, a worthless cheat who divorced his ailing wife to marry rich, an opportunistic politician who alternately wears and sheds the 'maverick' label depending on whether it suits him.

Dangerous strategy since it would invite McCain to go nuclear with Wright and Ayres. It'd be like Obama brought a knife to a gun fight.; August 20, 2008 11:01 PM
Rudy said...: Hey, Bill P, I can play that game, too.

Killing defenseless fetuses who have nary a say in their future is evil.

Depending on government to take care of your fellow man's hunger instead of helping him yourself is evil.

Telling 20 million people in Iraq that they are better off under Saddam Hussein instead of being free is evil.

Going to Berlin and slandering your country is evil.

Attitudes like yours are why most people don't buy into the wild-eyed crowd.

Conservatism is the best hope for retaining our freedoms and helping the US thrive. Certainly, compared with creeping socialism and totalitarianism.; August 20, 2008 11:02 PM
Bill P. said...: Rudy -

And your support of a morally bankrupt traitor who likely appeased his captors is evil.

Attitudes like yours are why most people don't buy into the wild-eyed crowd.

Conservatism is the opposite of liberty.; August 20, 2008 11:25 PM
Bill P. said...: Do note the characteristics of the average conservative animal as displayed by Rudy.

First, a bleating love for the fetus. The fetus is a supreme creature in conservative mythology, endowed with more rights than people.

Second, the pathetically naive assumption that everyone is just helping out their fellow man with no strings attached. That's why we have no homeless people or hungry people in America, right conservative Rudy?

Third, the tired whine about Iraqis being 'better off'. That wasn't why we went there, but reality doesn't matter to the conservative animal. It acts on instinct; the instinct to invade and make up reasons for it later.

Finally, the conservative animal shows its instinctive need to lie by whimpering that Obama somehow slandered American in Berlin. He did not, and your assertion otherwise is a disgusting example of how depraved conservatism can be.

What a filthy anti-American philosophy conservatism is.; August 20, 2008 11:40 PM
Rudy said...: Dude, you're whacked.; August 21, 2008 12:44 AM
Foregone Conclusion said...: First of all, can we stop arguing about who's more evil? I find many parts of conservative philosophy morally wrong, but I wouldn't say that conservatives are evil.

Secondly... I'm kind of disappointed by the reaction of people on this site to Nate's news. I expected Republicans to proclaim that Obama was finished, but I didn't expect quite so much wild despondency from the Democrats. I think we have to keep this all in perspective. Neither side has started campaigning, the Vice Presidential candidates haven't been picked, the conventions haven't even started, the debates are a long way off. It's not that things will necessarily get better or worse for Obama - it's that so many things are undecided. Nate will probably be able to call the election in mid-October. If Obama is still behind then - panic!; August 21, 2008 6:00 AM
Jack said...: You can call the election now. This is a Conservative country not a liberal one. People were waiting to see how the candidates finally were defined.
John McCain using Obama's own words from the primary was able to define him before Obama could define himself. What you see in all of the polls now is that McCain is deepening his support. People were not looking for a reason to vote for Obama they were looking for a reason to vote for McCain.
Obama and his little girl "they are lying about me" and his constant rant it is all FOX news fault plus many other gaffes are just too many.
Maybe after he gets some seasoning with another term or two in the Senate he might be ready then. However, he is showing now that he is not.; August 21, 2008 6:32 AM
Jackson said...: First, a bleating love for the fetus. The fetus is a supreme creature in conservative mythology, endowed with more rights than people.

For conservatives, life is precious from the moment of conception to the moment of birth. At that point it goes through an immediate transformation from something precious to something that will increase their taxes.; August 21, 2008 9:15 AM
Cliff said...: Hey Guys,

Everyone have a decaf and calm down. BHO is going to win this thing. As greater minds than mine have pointed out, historically, the polls almost always tighten up during this portion of the election cycle. Once the electorate starts paying attention again (during and after the conventions) the choices will be clear. The Republicans will roll out their usual toxic brew of God, Guns, Gays, and Abortion and season it with a bit of Osama bin Laden (although not as much this time...since they still haven't caught him). Since these social wedge issues/terror scares don't seem to have nearly the traction they once did, the majority will reject them and embrace Obama as the candidate of change.

Now, go brew your decaf.; August 21, 2008 11:19 AM
Keith said...: How can Michigan and NH be considered tossups when other states are lean GOP within the margin of error. I have seen a conserted effort to make this election even in th polls. It is not. There are times that Quinnipac is put more emphasis on and others when it is not. Is it's accuracy only deem solid in red states? If a person such as Obama is winning it is okay to say and show it, the media doesn't have to stretch numbers or lean heavier on certain polls. Yesterday when I sa the Zogby poll and how much coverage was given to it, I had to laugh. Zogby is awful, everyone knoews that. Report what is fact, don't bend the paying field to make something that it is not. Anything like that is as bad as swiftboating someone.; August 21, 2008 11:38 AM
murraylangston44 said...: Yeah, Darren, his pastor who said some questionable things (and has already been played out) and a guy he sorta kinda knew from the neighborhood...unless you truly believe that Obama was nodding his head with every "god damn america" or was planting bombs with Ayres, it doesn't exactly compare to treating women horribly and changing your stance with the shifting winds. If McCain wants to go that negative, he'll look like the hot-tempered jerk people kinda suspect he is.; August 21, 2008 2:47 PM
spynverzyon said...: Amusing to see all the libs try to wish this away. Look at the trend: Obama's in freefall. Why? Because he never had a foundation under him in the first place. It's like in the Roadrunner cartoon where the coyote runs off the cliff but doesn't actually fall until he realizes he's out in thin air. Don't look down, libs!; August 21, 2008 4:26 PM
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平平 said...: ^^ very nice

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等相關服務幫您快速的實現您的夢想~!!; September 22, 2009 1:53 AM
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 梵,; October 8, 2009 5:26 AM

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8.20.2008

McCain Now Winning Small Majority of Simulations

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