...that Obama staff were told to prepare for a VP announcement tomorrow or today, but the same source that passed this along to me expressed skepticism.
My guess? Thursday -- tomorrow -- PM. The event scheduled with Tim Kaine on Thursday is apparently invitation-only, and would not be all that well suited to a VP unveil. If it's going to be Kaine, in other words, Obama would probably need to announce today.
The dead zone in the media cycle is Friday afternoon through Saturday evening ... Friday mornings are relatively normal. An announcement on Thursday evening would allow Obama to get some coverage while people were still at their desks, while also building up anticipation toward his Saturday event in Springfield, which sounds more designed to be a mass media spectacle than for any kind of spontaneity.
And Friday seems to be pretty unscheduled for both Obama and most of the leading VP contenders, creating plenty of opportunities for a joint appearance. For that matter, Hillary Clinton will be in Florida on Thursday and Kathleen Sebelius in Iowa, neither of which are impossibly far away from Virginia for some kind of PM rendezvouses.
With large grain of salt.
8.20.2008
I'm Hearing...
@ 9:21 AM
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
298 comments
Nate,
Why all the panties in a wad on the VEEP selection? You're such a wanker.
I'm taking it with a shaker full of salt. The Obama team has been incredibly disciplined about not allowing leaks, and I see no reason why the VP announcement should be any different. I think your reasoning for Thursday makes sense, but I could also see them trying to play against conventional wisdom and announcing on Friday. Or today. Nobody knows anything, I think.
CBS news has been reporting that the text message goes out on Friday.
Since there's a joint appearance scheduled for Saturday, I don't think the text message will be immediately followed by a joint appearance.
Announcement Friday; appearance Saturday.
Late Thursday or early Friday sounds about right to me, and as you've pointed out, the real-time text message thing means they can't do it too early or the West Coast people won't be awake for it, so their morning time is more constrained than if they were just relying on the media. That doesn't eliminate Friday morning completely, but it makes Thursday more likely.
SLS: I saw the same CBS article. The Obama campaign letting something like that leak leads me to think it'll be before then. They want that cellphone text to be dramatic and unexpected.
Or perhaps the campaign decides that they don't want the media buzz today to be about a couple of polls that don't look so great for Obama and so they go ahead an announce it this afternoon. Not likely, perhaps, but it would catch everyone by surprise, since the thinking now seems to be moving towards an end-of-the-week announcement.
A Friday rollout date seems to indicate that maybe they don't WANT the first impressions of their pick to be the instant media analysis from the nodding heads.
Maybe they want to get their announcement out on a slow newsday and then have their big rally on Saturday and have people see both these events at the same time they hear about it from the media.
It could be message management because they don't trust the media reaction to be totally favorable. That would probably favor either Biden or Bayh.
The media would be fascinated with a Sebelius or Reed pick, let alone a Clark, Clinton or Gore pick. So, this argues for a more conventional pick.
Sedi makes a good pt. The narrative today is not positive for Obama (so far) regarding polls although it is yet to sink in on a national basis. What is the benefit of waiting? Obama needs a VP and he needs to go on the attack, right? So much for the post-partisan Obama we saw in the primaries. Nothing has changed, folks. By October, this election will be just like 2004 - close with two very polarized and highly political candidates firing off attack ads and looking for incremental advantage in key swing states. The big difference is that Obama will be slinging with an extra 100 -150 million over Kerry in 2004. McCain will hold his own but will need to spend wisely. Get ready for total saturation CO,VA,OH,MI, etc....
It must be Dick Cheney. I have known this all along.
I'm not sure why he would want extensive coverage of this right away. Most people won't have heard of the VP-- if they find out on CNN or Good Morning America, then the first thing they'll hear is the conventional wisdom political analysis ("He picked Biden to shore up his foreign policy weakness" or "He picked Sebelius to pacify angry Clinton supporters").
Why not text Friday night, when young people will be out? (i.e. talking) - then the first info they'll get is when they click on a link, or Google for Seb-- um, whoever it's going to be.
Friday is a crap time to announce, Friday is when you release the news you want buried.
As for the choice - it might need to be Hillary just because the Clintons suck so bad. Here is a nugget for you to chew on:
"Sen. Hillary Clinton's brother and several local Democratic leaders "socialized privately" with Carly Fiorina, "a top surrogate" of Sen. John McCain, according to he Scranton Times-Tribune.
The gathering "raises questions about the support" Sen. Barack Obama "can expect from former local supporters of Mrs. Clinton." "
Nate-
Please develop a version of this site for smartphones and blackberries (i.e. ifivethirtyeight.com) that skips the side graphics but has the posts and comments.
Thanks!
Brad
Nate, why is Mule Rider still allowed to post here? He has consistently contributed nothing but abuse.
Overrated,
I'd differ on a couple of points. First, post-partisan doesn't (in my book) mean no attacking one's opponent. Obama can (and has) say that John McCain is now with the George W. Bush wing of the party and that he has abandoned the more sensible, moderate wing of the GOP. That invites a certain type of Republican to join with Obama, while still attacking McCain. I find it a very appealing approach, though it's probably because I kind of liked McCain in 2000 but am appalled at his (underreported) massive shift to the right during the past year. Obama can easily be post-partisan but anti-McCain. Whether it works or not is another question.
Second, I don't think that Obama's money advantage will be quite as large as you suggest. He'll probably have that much more than McCain, but when you add the RNC and DNC into the mix, it will be a lot closer. RNC money isn't the same as McCain money, but it's a factor.
Third, the number of battleground states will likely be larger than in 2004. Obama is spreading the map, and while some appear to be reaches (ND & GA come to mind), I don't think MT, IN, MO, and possibly even NC are totally out of reach. McCain will be playing a lot of defense. The good news for him is that it will be defense in states where he has a natural advantage and should win.
Sorry to hijack a post on a VP announcement. I guess I got carried away.
mule is part of the VP selecion committee that is rumored to be vetting nate silver, heraclitus. his abuse is part of the process!
The Obama campaign has shown that they kind of like Friday announcements. A couple of the major endorsements during primary season were rolled out on a Friday. As Cugel pointed out, it allows them to get the news without the negative analysis. The Olympics will help with that too. (I disagree with Cugel, though, that it implies Bayh or Biden. Any pick will generate blowback from the pundits. Although picking Clinton is hopeless in terms of message management--the media will be all abuzz, both positive and negative, regardless of the timing on that one.)
On this date in history, August 20, 2004, in the Rasmussen Presidential Tracking Poll, President George Bush and John Kerry were tied 49% to 49%.
For final results, please see Presidential Inauguration January 2005.
Now, I would like to comment on the recent spat of polls that came out. The infamous Indiana Poll finally came out and I guess all the left wing nuts on this site can stop salivating about possibly winning Indiana-ain't gonna happen.
Ohio now appers to be out of Obama's reach, and Florida is slowly but surly trending McCain-even after Obama has spent well over a million in advertising.
Two national polls have now come out showing McCain ahead-the not so great Zogby Poll. However, the Battleground Poll has been released and it showed McCain up 1.
If the election was held tommorrow, McCain would win this election with 270 EV+. It looks like the Saddlback forum was a Braokback moment for Obama. Looking forward to seeing the next Michigan Poll.
mule is part of the VP selecion committee that is rumored to be vetting nate silver, heraclitus. his abuse is part of the process!
He's not eligible, unless I've mistakenly assumed Nate's 2000 graduation from college was undergrad work.
Anyways, even though I think only two races have moved (GA-Sen to Likely R, LA-Sen from Likely D to Slightly More Likely D), when do we get a senate update?
Something more important than this VP crap: a monkey has gone loose in tokyo. Sebelius will have to wait a while for her big moment.
Such a large party and Obama reach back to chose a group of old, Washington insider, tax and spend liberals.
Still c chance for you guys to realize your mistake and make sure Hillary wins on the ballot, I suppose.
Here is a question for the liberals on the board excited about an Obama candidancy. Will your excitment for him fade a bit if the candidate goes big-time negative? Obama was popular in part because he promised to transcend traditional politics and "not play the same old Washington games." Check out http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/20/us/politics/20ads.html?hpt and tell me what you think. I am under the impression that a negative move on Obama will undermine (to a degree) the youth and "new politics" supporters. Obama promised to be different in the primary but things are shaping up to be very similar to 2004 with massive ad wars and partisan attacks on both sides.
If the Obama campaign is smart, they will come out today with Kaine because he is not well known and needs the spotlight. If they pick biden, they could wait until friday because he is already known and not a big deal. Either way, McCain will counter with somebody better
" If the Obama campaign is smart, they will come out today with Kaine because he is not well known and needs the spotlight."
Kaine? Ahahahahahahaha! Do it Barack! DO IT!
bolt for sub 19 secs. i'm predicting.
Obama would be foolish to pick Kaine. He needs someone with military cred. McCain has pulled even, both nationally and in the swing states.
If something blows up somewhere and the Dem ticket is Obama/Kaine then they're cooked.
If he choses a joker like Timmeh Kaine or a nobody like Sebelius over Bayh (by far his best pick) he has just shown himself to be unserious about the Presidency. Of course I knew that all along, but swing voters will find that out, too.
"Obama would be foolish to pick Kaine. He needs someone with military cred. "
JOHN KERRY!
only 0.32 out.
JOHN KERRY!
Actually your right about Bayh, even though his wife has those corprate ties. Obama needs to take a risk if he wants to beat McCain, but he won't. Hello President McCain
Jack said,
"Ohio now appers to be out of Obama's reach."
*choke*
I'm sorry, but that's just not true. The last poll showed Obama tied, the one before that showed Obama ahead by two! (There's a Rasmussen poll taken before that that shows McCain ahead by 10, but that looks like a severe outlier, seeing that two days before PPP took a poll that showed Obama ahead by 8 points. I prefer to trust the PPP and Quinnipiac polls simply because they have larger sample sizes than Rasmussen. All the polls I'm refering too are on the side bar). Nate's projection says that McCain will win by +1.1% if the current trends continue.
But certainly, Ohio isn't 'out of reach'. What the hell? Is Obama supposed to give up on any state that isn't saphire blue? With the VP picks, the conventions, and the debates to come, a swing to Obama of +1.1% is eminently possible!
But you're right about Florida. It's been surprisingly close, but short of a Clinton VP pick, I don't think there's anything that will make it a convincing Dem prospect.
Damn. A bunch of state and national polls was released yesterday evening/early this morning.
RCP now has McCain 274-264 w/o tossups...
Yeah, like Joe "I'm an admitted plagarist" Biden doesn't have corporate ties. Uh, hello! Hes the Senior Senator from *Delaware*.
First, although I support Obama, I simply would not vote for any ticket with Biden on it. Why? See all of the above, plus tens of millions of dollars given by asbestos plaintiffs' lawyers to Biden. If Obama is going to share power or delegate to the likes of Fred Baron, then he shouldn't be elected.
Second, to my surprise, several younger voters whom I know consider Biden to be a classic philandering DC insider buffoon and actually think McCain is kind of cool. Beats me.
But, my question is: If Obama picks Biden, what does that say about differences between Obama and Biden? Was Obama really like Biden six months ago? Considering his series of positional changes during the past several weeks, has Obama become Biden, or was he Biden all along?
Okay - he needs someone with military cred that's not John Kerry :-)
"
RCP now has McCain 274-264 w/o tossups..."
I told you guys. August is the month. August is the month. Remember Kerry and Dukakis.
*glug glug glug* Obama's career is beginning to go down the toilet. Remember: still not too late for Hillary!
This has to be a head fake or an intentional leak. As a previous commenter noted, you only release important news on a Friday if you want it buried. If the text isn't sent out by tomorrow afternoon, then he'll just wait until the convention itself.
Sedi -
Agree with you on the money; disagree regarding defense/offense. Obama is looking vunerable in the Midwest and is toast down South. He will need to play trad defense, too. If by broadening you mean CO, VA well maybe. IN is not going Blue folks. NC and GA are off the table. I think FL and OH will be safe for McCain based on demographics - this was Clinton's strength. I do not see a real broad defensive play for McCain. What I see is a repeat of 2004 with FL and OH off the table but Iowa and NM stronger for Obama. You are right in that the margin is razor-thin for McCain, but the razor is basically all trad Red states that Obama must flip.
Considering his series of positional changes during the past several weeks, has Obama become Biden, or was he Biden all along?
Nothing would suprise me about Obama at this point. Biden would anger Obama's youth base for sure, as he represents Old Washington and not Change.
I told you guys. August is the month. August is the month. Remember Kerry and Dukakis.
It's about time too.
I still think its going to be an out of the box pick.
To build this suspense/hype and pick the expected isn't clever. We'll see.
Nate,
Love the site. Don't always love the ads, largely because I'm an Obama supporter. But that I can deal with; it's life.
Today, though, you have a McCain ad at the top of the site which says, "Is It OK to Meet Unconditionally With Anti-American Foreign Leaders?" Right next to the phrase "anti-American foreign leaders" is a picture of Barack Obama, and to the left of that a picture of the President of Iran. Obama is standing in front of a black background, and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is in front of a lighter background (made even lighter by the fact that the man's hand is covering up most of his dark hair). In real life, these two men have different skin tones; in the ad, they don't.
I'm not, actually, one to cry foul quicker than is reasonable. But the imagery of this ad is so deliberately sinister--given the rumors the far right is sending out about Obama's religion, given the claims Obama is anti-American, given McCain's claim to be "the American President America has been waiting for" (as if to suggest Obama is "foreign")--that I was surprised to see you'd allow this on your site. As everyone knows, when the Republicans go racist in this election cycle it won't be directly, but indirectly, through ads like this one. I guess the question is whether you want (or need) to be a part of that, simply for the sake of a few additional dollars in ad revenue.
I love the site, and I think it's better than that.
Thought you should know.
Be well,
Seth
I'm looking forward to the Republican blog sheep espousing the virtues of Zogby's polling (having decried him as a moron for the past two months). Of course his polling was and is terrible. You take your Zogby lead and I'll take the Gallup/Quinnipiac/Rasmussen/Time/CBSNews/Time/IBD/Pew/CNN lead.
As I see it, the race is now a dead heat in state polling with Obama holding a small national lead of 2 points on average. The three critical states at present are CO, OH and VA. With Obama needing to win just one to win the election. Sure, he could lose all three if current Rasmussen polls are to be believed but this whole thing is about to get shaken up once the VPs are announced and the conventions start.
We won't know what the new status quo is until a week after the scum meet in St Paul although I'm sure we'll all have fun cherry picking polls that suit in the meantime.
when the Republicans go racist in this election cycle it won't be directly
Maybe the Republicans are not going racist, but the Dems are paranoid and going to pull the race card whenever they feel that the other side crossed the line. Even if it was intended, it was racist for the other side just to think that way.
I'm tired of everyone thinking that the party is racist. Actually both parties are, one just utilizes minorities for votes.
Here is the RCP Horserace spotlight on Colorado, FYI. No mention of two major factors, though, the convention and McCain's Water Compact "gaffe".
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/
P Smith-
What happened to the Obama blowout? The realignment? The next 1932/1980?
I guess you guys have finally come around to reality. Welcome! This is STILL a conservative, center-right country and they're not going to elect the most liberal member of the United States Senate.
I just got a text message!
New Rass still has McCain +5 in Ohio.
Btw, I still do not see how a majority of Americans support McCain's foreign policy towards the Russia/Georgia conflict. How are we "friends" with a country that commits genocide by shelling apartment buildings in South Ossetia?
Wait until after the election, Deanscream.
We will hear accusations of racism (and what a horrible country this is) along with whining about how the Republicans stole the election for the third time(!) in a row!
....from my wife. hehe
"I still think its going to be an out of the box pick."
I'm still hoping for a Schweitzer or a Clark - people untainted by 'Washington sleaze'*, with executive experience, and coming from 'red states' - Montana and Nebraska respectively. You might consider Sebelius in this category, but I am uncertain as to how good a campaigner she is. Certainly, she'd be a fantastic president, but as a running-mate? I'm a little sceptical.
My final word about VP picks. A Democratic Vice President from a red state can suddenly show very liberal tendencies, now he's elected by the nation as a whole. Johnson was completely unpalatable to northern liberals because of his voting record in the Senate in favour of Big Oil, and against civil rights, but he was one of our most liberal presidents. In fact, his voting record, on closer inspection, was about as liberal as he dared make it. Hence, someone like Bayh may turn out to be a natural liberal constrained by circumstances, and someone like Biden may leave the control of his moneyed interests once he leaves Delaware.
VA con,
>> Wait until after the election, Deanscream.
We will hear accusations of racism (and what a horrible country this is) along with whining about how the Republicans stole the election for the third time(!) in a row!
You know the liberals are going to blame the Republicans for racism if Obama loses. At least a few will. The problem with that is that it just can't be true. All these many months what have we been hearing? Democrat registration is WAAAAYY up. Dems are WAAAAYY enthused. Republicans were never going to vote for Barry anyway. Just like they didn't vote for Kerry. Just like they didn't vote for Dukakis.
In light of all these new Democrats that have been registered and energized I think it would be a shame if racist Democrats kept Obama out of the White House.
Wait until after the election, Deanscream.
We will hear accusations of racism (and what a horrible country this is) along with whining about how the Republicans stole the election for the third time(!) in a row!
I love the blame card. Its been used in every US election since 1789.
There appears to be a lot of talk about Obama losing credibility on his "change the Washington environment" theme. There is some justification for that, particularly in light of his reversal on pursuing a publically financed campaign.
However, the main reasons to vote for Obama are (i) economy, (ii) Iraq, (iii) healthcare, (iv) environment, (v) Supreme Court, and (vi) toss out the Republican Administration that has mucked things up so badly the last 7 1/2 years. In a word, the "issues." McCain and the Republican Party (which does still include W, sorry my Republican friends) lose on the issues. For now, McCain has succeeded in framing the debate-- making it more about red herring issues like offshore drilling and Obama's cult of personality. Hopefully, because I am an Obama supporter, the debate will turn to the issues after the RNC convention, when McCain has run out of his money, and Obama starts pouring money into ads.
Only time will tell, though.
....McCain has run out of his money....
McCain will never run out of money, he'll just be outspent by Obama.
I actually see Obama's massive spending as a potential deathtrap. After all, he is running on the power of the supporters, and they are currently in a recession.
Hey all you crazy Obama-is-doomed people, can you do me a favor? You see, while I'm not exactly strapped for cash, I was really hoping for a little extra pocket money. I'm willing to wait until November to get it -- I was thinking of perhaps getting my kids extra-nice Christmas presents this year. I've told myself that I won't go on Intrade and buy Obama for president unless his numbers dip down into the mid-50s, since I don't like bets where the odds (as I see them) aren't overwhelmingly in my favor. If you folks really think McCain is a shoo-in, then please convince everyone you know to sell their Obama shares (or at least buy some McCain shares to create the impression of a trend) to help the price go down for me. And hey, if McCain is certain to win, you stand to make a killing.
I've been trying to find some justification for wasting (spending?) so much time on this site, and I think this is it. I'm simply becoming a more knowledgeable investor. Sadly, the Intrade shares for Obama seem stuck at 59 right now -- oh wait, he's down to 58.5 now, yeah! I really need a few more suckers who think short-term and are easily fooled by mid-August polls (several of you here seem to fit the bill) to get the price of the Obama shares down. C'mon, will you do it? Just think of my poor kids...
I'm starting to get a feeling that the pick might be Hillary. Why? Well, Obama specifically referring to the VP as "he" yesterday for starters... I think he's having a little fun with the press. Secondly, the later the announcement, the greater the chance it is Hillary. If it's not Hillary, you want time for her supporters to cool off before the convention begins; if it is Hillary, though, you want the excitement to explode at the convention. Third, the VP rollout tour begins in Illinois (playing into the whole Lincoln/"Team of Rivals" theme), and goes on to Hillary-strong battleground states like OH. I can imagine a very excited, frenzied tour with her as the pick. Oh, and one more thing.... Since Hillary is not the "Keynote" speaker on Tues, her speech could easily be moved to Wednesday... where, lo and behold, her husband Bill is already on the schedule, and could introduce her? Okay... my job is done.... Go back to work.
Not a good day for Obama. PPP on Missouri - McCain up 10. Previous was up 3....Sedi hang on...Intrade will be coming down fast. A better investment would be to buy McCain at 39 and watch it go to 50 in a matter of weeks. You can sell McCain and jump on Obama for a short/long strategy.
This reminds me of a kids' birthday party at that unpleasant moemnt when they've all overdosed on sugar, the early games have become boring and the little junk bags are littered about. To make it all even worse, the bouncy tent hasn't arrived on time and we have yet to produce the cake or open the presents.
Fights break out. People start to whine. Soembody throws up, causing others to gag. The room is a mess. The birthday kid is in tears.
Everybody should just go on time-out until the VP announcements and the conventions. That's when the party starts.
Hey all you crazy Obama-is-doomed people, can you do me a favor?
I'd be glad to.
Obama is a typical liberal, like Dukakis, Carter, and McGovern before him. He comes from a liberal state and knows how to fire up a crowd. But truthfully, he couldn't run a goverment for his life. I'm an economic liberal, and i am scared of his socialst policies. Nate is good at tracking trends, past elections, and numbers, and honestly, nothing is different about 2008 than any other election that the challenger lost. I would sell those Intrades now and invest in something else, cause it won't get better with Obama's VP pick.
If McCain is up 10 in MO, you liberals can stop pretending that Indiana is anywhere near competitive.
I find it amusing that all these wingnuts hang here. Why? One has to assume the right can't do election math on an abacus. Or find someone to operate a site.
I don't mind, most of you are amusing in your rants.
I will be curious who will remain after the Nov 4 election of Obama. Not so many, I'm sure.
Foregone Conclusion.
"My final word about VP picks. A Democratic Vice President from a red state can suddenly show very liberal tendencies, now he's elected by the nation as a whole. Johnson was completely unpalatable to northern liberals because of his voting record in the Senate in favour of Big Oil, and against civil rights, but he was one of our most liberal presidents. In fact, his voting record, on closer inspection, was about as liberal as he dared make it. Hence, someone like Bayh may turn out to be a natural liberal constrained by circumstances, and someone like Biden may leave the control of his moneyed interests once he leaves Delaware."
That brings us Vice President Al Gore. When Gore was a US Senator from Tennessee he had a moderate to Conservative Voting Record- When He became VP- he moved farther to the left.
O filistro, you are a ship of reason in this sea of disquiet. May I hold to your bows?
Filistro-
Spoken like a true mother.
Which brings us back to the real topic at hand.....
SurveyUSA seems to believe that the text will be coming tonight or tommorrow
On Eve of Obama Selection of Running Mate, McCain Takes Lead in Indiana Race for White House
of course SurveyUSA isn't my favorite pollster...but they are stuck on it being within the next 48 hours
And moondance, i will still be here, and Obama will not be president. I hope for everyones sakes that Howard Dean and the DNC wakes up and nominates the strongest candidate
deanscream: spoken like true nutjob.
VA Con, I'm pretty sure I've never been one of those who has predicted an Obama blow out. I thought and still think that he will win but nothing is certain.
As for the racism thing, I don't think that the GOP will ever directly raise race as an issue but (and it's a big but) a significant section of the Republican blog supporting cast will do and there is no question that they have had some success in spreading their viral lies about Obama being a homosexual muslim who wants to sleep with your white daughters. Now McCain could come straight out and denounce that stuff but he is content for it to go on much as Bush was happy for the Swiftboat filth to spread their lies about Kerry. That doesn't make McCain a racist for a second but it does make him precisely the sort of politican that he used to despise. One who would walk on by on the other side of the road without speaking up.
Maybe that is his best tactic to win the election and maybe it will succeed. Maybe so. If so, America will get the president they have voted for and if America starts to bitch and moan again like they have done for the past 8 years they will only have themselves to blame. I quite agree with you that there is no point in blaming politicians. In this day and age people have the ability to make their own choices and they have the god given blessing of democracy and a free and open press. If people then make a choice that I think is astoundingly stupid there is not a whole lot I can do about it. It will be there problem. So if I see some interview with a blue collar voter in Ohio in 4 years time complaining about how he voted for McCain but feels let down, I will probably say "I told you so" to my TV and switch over.
Incidentally VA Con, keep up the intelligent GOP chatter. While there are very many Republican imbeciles who come here to spout their mindless drivel (and some Democrats too), I've enjoyed reading your more thoughtful and humorous posts. I don't subscribe to this need to drive off anyone with a departing view point. The world would be very boring indeed if we all thought the same way. It must be a truly fascinating time right now in your home state.
Keep well.
Yow. Micro-suppositions. Nor sure why this flurry when the bigger issue to me is PPP saying McCain has a 10 point edge in MO and Hullabaloo providing a "good luck" examination of the Obama ground game premise. Ever since Barack was "about to" name a veep a week or so ago I have figured this is mainly an address phone number bait thing. I am sure we all have our favorites. What else is to say?
Speaking of wingnuts, I detect a fascinating train of thought developing over at the Corner. (see Andy McCarthy's long post at 10:40 a.m.)
Wingers are starting, for the first time, to consider the scary prospect that McCain might actually WIN. And they seem to be finding it a deeply sobering thought. Especially, McCarthy argues, if McCain opts, even informally, for a one-term pledge.
They're now shaking in their shiny little wingtips at what kind of mischief their "maverick" might get up to once he's safely in office, has a Dem senate and house, and doesn't need to worry about re-election.
What an awful situation to be in. It's horrible if we lose, but not all that great if we win. Sucks to be them :-)
Deanscream-
Go away, Puma.
live rugnuts...
Ewwww. Let go of me!
May I ask - what is the Republican path to victory?
I can see one obvious one : Bush states - Iowa - New Mexico.
That would require McCain winning BOTH Ohio and Colorado - not beyond the bounds of possibility, but I think unlikely. Personally, I believe that he will win one of them - probably Ohio, although that depends hugely on both the VP choices, and how well things go in Denver - but not both.
So what are the other paths to victory?
I suppose that you have BUSH - Iowa - Colorado.
That would require winning New Mexico, not completely unlikely, but less likely than winning Colorado - and STILL winning Ohio.
Then there's are the possibilities that come from winning Michigan. They are:
BUSH + Michigan - Iowa - Ohio
BUSH + Mighigan - Iowa - Ohio - NM
BUSH + MI - CO - NM - VA (TIE)
Then there's Minnesota:
BUSH + MN - IA - OH (TIE)
BUSH + MN - IA
BUSH + MN - IA - OH - CO - NM
And a combination of MI and MN:
BUSH + MI + MN - OH - CO - NM
But what if he loses Virginia?
BUSH - VA + MI
BUSH - VA + MN
are his only likely courses to victory.
But the key states here for McCain appear to be OH and CO in the first bracket, followed by MI, MN and VA.
You might want to play with other possible states, like New Hampshire, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Montana. However, I just can't be bothered - and I believe that FL will end up red, and PA will end up blue.
Todays polls are major bad news for Obama. He is being trounced in IN and OH both must wins for Obama. He is being trounced nationaly according to Zogby. And his base support other than AA is slipping dramaticly accross the board. He no longer wins on the Economy. Top it off with this tidbit from Zogby,
"Obama's support among voters between the ages of 18 and 29, which had been one of his strengths, slipped 12 percentage points to 52 percent. McCain, who will turn 72 next week, was winning 40 percent of younger voters."
Unless his VP choice is FDR he may be toast.
I won't say I told you so... yet... but they day I will is fast approaching. November is near.
eh? oh that was a joke, sorry your vanity didn't allow you to get it.
Congradulations Jack Black, you are the millionth person to post the "joke" about Jan. 2005. You win an exciting all expenses paid trip to Iraq, (unless wounded), and if you haven't been I wonder why, other priorities like Cheney or straight up chicken hawk like Bush?
As I've said before, Obama is too young and healthy to contemplate living the rest of his long life having blown this election. He needs to make sure he wins, he needs to suck it up and pick Clinton. I don't blaim him for hating the idea but its not the worst thing in the world to be POTUS.
BjB-
As others have said on countless occasions, the MoE on any particular demographic crosstab can be as high as the low double-digits. While it's possible that support may have slipped that much among that demo, it's also possible that it's pollster induced error. We'd have to see more data to tease that out.
p smith,
You don't think the GOP will ever directly raise race as an issue? What about the pin sold at the Texas GOP convention?
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2008/jun/19/jabs-from-anti-obama-pin-leave-texas-gop-smarting/
On August 20, 2004, John Kerry was ahead in states worth 301 electoral votes on electoral-vote.com. Yet he lost the election.
On August 20, 2008, Obama is ahead in states worth 264 electoral votes on electoral-vote.com.
Now that McCain has shored up support with evangelicals, he can pick Romney and go for a sure win by picking up Michigan -- a state Obama cannot do without. Romney would also help in NH and lock up NV.
Bjb - neither Ohio nor Indiana are 'must-win' states. Obama must win EITHER Colorado and Ohio, in addition to New Mexico and the Kerry states.
At this point he is losing his base. Clinton is the samrt choice. He won't make it, he will probably lose.
I hate the Clintons too...
The issue is, if he loses among older whites (which he is), he must win among white younger voters by a hhuge margin (which he was).
Since he is losing his own base, he needs to bring in someone elses, and that base is the Clinton's.
Hilarry for VP! (please fire both Hill nad Bill around Nov. 15)
May I ask - what is the Republican path to victory?
I can see one obvious one : Bush states - Iowa - New Mexico
It is McCain's only hope right now, but the demographics could change with the VPs.
But then again if McCain picks Romney and Obama picks Kaine.....
Romney may deliever a push enough to contest Michigan, but it is not set in stone. Romney would solidify rebelling North Dakota and Montana. It is doubtful that Romney generate enough to move Minnisota, Wisconsin, or Pennsylvania.
Kaine would most likely swipe Virginia, but that is not absolute either. Kaine is not well known nationally and is widely considered the DEM "safe pick" because he could pick up a state, and he wouldn't win or lose many votes.
It won't change much under these guys, but you never know....
He will pick Hillary.
It´s Ohio, stupid!.
Mason,
I do not dispute polls are as good as the questions asked. I have been polled twice in the last 5 days and the bias in the poll questions was clear. What I am pointing out is that Obama is slipping in every demo but AA support nationaly. Not only 1 poll has shown this in the last week but every poll has shown this in the last week, national and local. This is ugly as it gets for BO heading into the convention. He will need a 15 pt bounce next week to have a chance of hanging on through November.
brad th ebad: you are suggesting that Hill would make a good VP temp?
MrInsight-
All that proves is the the polls taken now don't mean much - what is important now is the war of defining your candidate and the issues. The problem is Axelrod seems to be losing that war.
Mrinsight,
Losing Michigan would be a blow for Obama, but actually he could win through:
KERRY - MI + OH + CO
Which is not impossible.
Romney might have an effect in NH, but I seriously doubt he would swing it for McCain. If so, Obama would need:
KERRY - MI - NH + OH + CO + NM
Again, not impossible.
Live said:
"brad th ebad: you are suggesting that Hill would make a good VP temp?"
Gotta think that. If you bring in the Clintons you get two attack dogs for the price of one, a good debater for the VP debate, the PUMAs come back.
Problems are the repubs being energized by the Hillary pick - but if McCain picks Lieberman (which I think he will) the repub base is not going to be strongly for McCain in any case.
Pick Hillary, win and neuter her later.
The Kremlin Wall
I have never seen such amusing fodder as the analysis of who Obama is going to pick.
I must say it has me totally bamboozled.
Yesterday’s short list had Biden, Bayh and Kaine on it and I would have made that the order of finish. I cannot imagine Obama being so crass as to hold out an icon’s name like Biden’s only to reject him. Curiously, Biden seemed to take himself out of the running yesterday only to backtrack a bit.
I think Biden has decided he does not want it. Mrs. Obama is said to be opposed to him and as the new Marie Antoinette of Democrat politics, I think she gets what she wants. But Biden is not basing his reluctance on the demurrer of Mrs. Obama; rather I think he has made the calculation that his political fortunes would not be served as Obama’s number 2. Mostly because I think he fears, as the polls seem to be showing, that Obama may very well lose. The Democrat Party, unlike the Republicans, does not cotton to losers in future races. They tend to get pensioned off somewhere.
One would think with all of Obama’s present polling trouble ( the State polls and Zogby and the other new polls showing the race virtually even – this after weeks of solid leads for him in the spot polls as opposed to the trackers), Obama would make the smart calculation and turn to Mrs. Clinton. This is what I said late yesterday.
I think the call was made and she also demurred. Not interested, thank you very much Barack! Why? I think Mrs. Clinton, like Biden, suspects this may be a losing effort and even if the ticket wins, why spend four to eight years in exile as VEEP to a Prez who does not like you very much.
The Clintons are nothing if not clever. Bill and Hill have no doubt offered their sage counsel to Obama. He needs to do something dramatic. He needs to shore up base support among her disaffected voters.
Who then have they recommended?
Why none other than Governor Sibelius. Only a woman at number two can assuage the ill-feelings of the sulking Hillary supporters. Pick her, they urge and you will have chosen someone you like, we like and our 18 million voters like.
This is of course tailor made to create dissension in the party. Many of HRC’s most ardent supporters will not get what Obama has done in passing over their gal.
Hillary will be gracious, but a touch wounded in the aftermath, slipping Obama the shiv and making sure he goes down to a bitter defeat.
Four years is hardly a lifetime in politics. Plenty of time for Mrs. Clinton to come back. Right after the election, the media (along with many of the trolls here) will all say I told you so and coronate her on the spot.
"Foregone Conclusion said...
Bjb - neither Ohio nor Indiana are 'must-win' states. Obama must win EITHER Colorado and Ohio, in addition to New Mexico and the Kerry states."
As I said a month ago and still say today, Obama will not win CO, OH, IN, MO, VA or NV. He may not win MI, MN, NH , IA. And I think McCain still has a long shot chance in PA and OR. This is setting up to be a landslide opposite of what most of the MSM has told us.
I am a realist and realize Obama could pull a magic rabit out of his hat next week and save what was his to take but right now unless McCain makes a major fumble it is looking to be is game with just over a quarter to go...
Some of you may recall that I have a passion for a punctuated equilibria theory of the race. We had one in February (+2 Obama), another one in March-May(+0), another one in June (+4) and another one starting at July 4 (+2). Now we seem to have entered a new stable state, the first not to start around the beginning of the month! at around mid-August, apparently, the race moved from +2 Obama back to +0.
It is extremely unlikely that we will revisit stable states from now. Starting with the conventions, through the debates and then the buildup to the election itself, the race is going to be much more dynamic, at least as it appears through polling.
If so, this is precisely the opposite of Common Wisdom, which suggests that races are volatile in their early stages (people are easily moved as they don't pay much attention), and then settle down to a narrower band as people revert to their true positions. I suspect the opposite is tre because, the more people pay attention, the more they think (erroneously) that they shift their opinions based on passing events. The true positions emerge only during the last few days.
In short, I suspect we have already visited one of the possible outcomes of the elections (+0, +2, +4) and that it will reemerge come November 4.
Barack Obama saw the polls?.
If he do it, he know he´s a toast and he will pick Hillary.
Who cares? There are and more posts on this site which just contain the same armchair speculation that I can get on CNN. Get back to the numbers, Nate, it's what made this site different from (insert random political blog here)
The question remains: why did we move from +2 Obama to +0 Obama? Why the erosion at around mid August?
We had a similar mystery at around July 4th. Nothing much seemed to happen then, just as nothing much seems to have happened now.
This nothing much must be the key. Obama recedes at moments of low overall interest. His first dip came with the July 4th break allowing Americans to turn their backs, finally, on the drama of the Primaries and on politics in general. The mid-August dip coincided with what? - the Olympic Games. when nobody pays attention, Obama's support evaporates.
This is a nice wishfully thought theory that allows one to predict a stronger Obama showing in September-October, as political interest rekindles. We'll see soon enough!
As noted above, Dario, I think he asked and she declined.
Today is a new Rasmussen poll from New Hampshire.
This is the last chance in this month for Obama to demostred he´s live.
Don't forget that as far as VP announcments are concerned, the "normal" weekend media cycle is screwed by the Olympics ending on Sunday.
I think the later he announces, the better.
Tony,
I agree that I think it's going to be Hillary. I think it's the smart choice because it maximizes the effect of new voter registration that was seen during the historic primaries and it unifies most of the party except the superhardcore Obama supporters, who will probably end up voting for Nader and not McCain. It also pulls a lot of the independents who may be on the fence because of Obama's "inexperience". I think it will be a magical convention if Hillary is the pick. Just think, when the Hillary delegates roll call for her during the convention, they will in fact be doubly endorsing the ticket, rather than shining a bright spotlight on the divided Democratic party. If it wasn't Hillary, it would be a very foolish move for Obama to allow the roll call with Hillary's name on it. Independents would look at the roll call as evidence of a Democratic party that still can't stop shooting itself in the foot despite two hotly contested presidential elections.
I can also say that as a Democrat all the way, I went into the primary booth in February with about a 60/40 opinion for Obama. I seriously didn't know for sure who I should vote for, because I really could not see a big difference between the ideals and broad policy goals of the two candidates. I am really looking forward to this/Thursday/Friday afternoon.
Re: Romney "guaranteeing" McCain a Michigan victory: practically anyone I've heard make this claim either (A) isn't from Michigan or intimately familiar with our electoral politics, or (B) is from the west side of the state which is bound to tilt Red regardless (*cough* Amway *cough*). The Romney name just doesn't have the cache some folks think it does -- at least, not any more.
But go ahead and pick Romney in the hope of tilting Michigan, since it'll allow the bigots on the RR to go balistic at the prosect of sharing the executive with a *gasp* heathen Mormon! I think that'd cost McCain more than some anticipate, certainly enough to render it a net negative w/r/t a potential Michigan pick-up. But whatever, I just live here.
Could it be that Obama has a better chance in Florida than Ohio?
May need a couple of polls to confirm, but it may be so.
No doubt Obama has fallen behind--can he regain it now? I doubt it.
BjB Said:
I do not dispute polls are as good as the questions asked. I have been polled twice in the last 5 days and the bias in the poll questions was clear. What I am pointing out is that Obama is slipping in every demo but AA support nationaly. Not only 1 poll has shown this in the last week but every poll has shown this in the last week, national and local. This is ugly as it gets for BO heading into the convention. He will need a 15 pt bounce next week to have a chance of hanging on through November.
I'm afraid I must have come across unclearly. The bias of the pollsters is not at issue. At issue is pure mathematics. The MoE in demographic crosstabs is larger than the stated MoE of the poll. Often it is much larger (3-4x). This makes sense as a subset of a sample is smaller, and therefore less precise. Thus, if you have a 3.5% MoE on a poll, your MoE on a crosstab can be as high as 15%. I don't dispute that there may have been some erosion of support among the 18-29 demo in OH. What I do dispute (for now) is your assertion using Zogby's quote that support has fallen off that much. Frankly, the metrics just aren't precise enough to be able to tell with one datapoint. Now if we see the same dropoff in a demo over a couple of polls, it's a trend. In one poll, however, it's just noise.
I'll give Nate credit on something I didn't think he would be objective enough to do...this shift towards McCain has certainly been reflected in his prediction of the electoral winner as Obama is considered only 53% likely to be elected...I thought Nate would do his damnedest to keep that close to 60% or higher no matter what. Let me be the first to say I was wrong.
54%. My bad.
Overrated @ 9:16 AM:
Here is a question for the liberals on the board excited about an Obama candidancy. Will your excitment for him fade a bit if the candidate goes big-time negative? Obama was popular in part because he promised to transcend traditional politics and "not play the same old Washington games." Check out http://www.nytimes.com/2008/08/20/us/politics/20ads.html?hpt and tell me what you think. I am under the impression that a negative move on Obama will undermine (to a degree) the youth and "new politics" supporters. Obama promised to be different in the primary but things are shaping up to be very similar to 2004 with massive ad wars and partisan attacks on both sides.
As an excited liberal, I can say that you're mistaking "the same old Washington politics" with fighting back against smears and false charges. If Obama went negative against McCain that actually did some damage, I would be thrilled.
MR Said:
Let me be the first to say I was wrong.
And yet, the Earth kept spinning.
I'm waiting for 1)The NBC/WSJ poll tonight at 6:30, and 2) The Ras NH poll. If McCain does well in both we can certainly say hes making a comeback.
I think John McCain picks Hillary the day after Obama turns her down. That would be a unity ticket.
BTW, in my experience Zogby is either horrible, amazingly wrong or right on target. That certainly seemed to be the case in the primaries. Also was the case in the 2006 Senate elections--some were right on target, while some other states they polled were WAY off.
VC-
For sure.
Higg-
That would be fun. It would also probably scare the hell out of, well, everybody. Dems because they'd lose. GOPers because they'd win and put HRC a heartbeat away.
Then again, there'd probably be so much friction that they could put West Wing meetings on PPVTV and help out the national debt.
P Smith-
It is indeed an interesting time here but I dread the prospect of a Florida-style recount, mostly because I live about five blocks from the State Capitol and all the government offices around it. I can only imagine what hell it would be with all the protests and whatnot, especially since Richmond is well within an afternoon's drive from Washington and back.
VC-
We're a better run state than Florida. Plus, part of the problem in 2000 was that nobody knew the procedures.
Obama’s Many Miscalculations
Humanist:
Obama declined in the polls around the 4th of July b/c the flip flopper meme took hold. It was on 7/3 that he held his famous dueling press conferences on Iraq and then the feeding frenzy began.
He arrested it briefly with his Rainbow Tour of Europe and the Mid-East and then the celebrity meme began to take root.
Now we have McCain coming home to Evangelicals while running Olympic ads warning about the Obama tax hikes. Georgia too has played a role in this.
Obama spiked for a time last week on coverage of McCain having gone negative, but then folks got used to the show and settled in to watch the horror movie unfold.
Now Obama is out on the stump whining about the McCain attacks, drawing attention to charges that he, Obama, is unpatriotic, and just digging himself deeper into a grave.
All he's got is the McBush/McSame crap which is so last month!
Y'all think that Obama and Plouffe and Axelrod are so brilliant and cannot make a misstep, but they have and they continue to do so.
First you have this silly notion of a map changing election and a 50-state race. Add to that all those field offices he has opened up (expect to start hearing how many of them are being closed or run by skeleton staffs – e.g. in Indiana unless Bayh is the pick). Finally, you have an Obama campaign without a message (hope and change?) and worse an inability to take control of the narrative of who the candidate is away from the McCain camp.
It is only getting worse, folks. The Ayers thing is starting to blow up with the University of Chicago reported to be stonewalling about releasing information they have concerning the relationship between the former Weather Underground Bomber and Obama.
Does anyone really think that we can elect a president of the US who counts among his friends and supporters and babysitters of his children an unrepentant terrorist?
And notice I have not even had to mention Rev. Wright. I could go on, but other things need attending to!
Thats true Mason, the VA state government is pretty efficent as far as governments go.
Still, given that this used to be the seat of the Confederacy theres a greater chance of racial animus (especially when the MSM tries to ignite it).
Mason,
When I want comments from a steaming pile of dog excrement who has a skin condition from lack of sunlight exposure due to being a loner who is locked away in their parents' basement and sits around on the internet all day beating off repeatedly to a political forum, then I'll address you specifically.
Until then, I don't give eight barrels of donkey shit what you think.
Question for poll geeks:
I'm looking for polling that shows how people would respond if Obama picks Clinton for VP. I'm sure someone has taken the temperature on this in the last couple of months, but for the life of me I can't find any polls on this. Something like "Should Obama pick Hillary for VP?" or "Would picking Hillary make you more or less likely to vote for Obama?"
If anyone can point me to polls on this, I would appreciate it. Thanks in advance.
MULEHEAD,
you are braying like an ass again.
you start at the first post on this thread trying to be cute [not]
now you are just fligging your crap w/o even any reason or wit...
so pathetic
BEHAVE or BE GONE, troll
DCM,
Uh, if you'll read a few posts up, I was making a straightforward assessment of where Nate thinks the race is and my surprise. I wasn't being an ass at all.
Then Mason jumps in with a smart-ass comment. So I retaliate. Pretty simple dick-face.
We are getting I think, FWIW, the lats distortion-free polls for about a month.
Theres going to be the Democrat bounce after the convention, but then very shortly a Republican bounce after their convention.
A week after that, the 9/11 anniversary(ALWAYS makes the Republicans go up, even in 2006, Bush's job approval even ticks up slightly).
So no accurate polls from the Dem VP pick until late September.
live renats said...
It must be Dick Cheney. I have known this all along.
Cheney has just declared himself vice president for life! All hail the unitary executive.
I feel safer now.
Mule,
that was not 'retaliation'
your response to Mason was less than childish & immature.
grow a pair phool
Announcing on Thursday or Friday? WTF are Obama (and McCain) thinking?
Why not announce on a Monday and dominate the week's coverage?
I'll tweak you every chance I get, MR, because you are a fool, and proud of it.
Rush says he hopes the Veep is Biden ("tons of archival material") and I couldn't agree more.
Pick Senator Hair Plugs, please.
Mark Warner is the real deal.
He is a heavyweight and everyone watching the event in Martinsville today has seen that.
It will be really disappointing if he is not selected.
PK,
Your suggestions for outside events driving Obama's numbers are reasonable enough and may even be the Common Wisdom.
I personally distrust the methodology on which this common wisdom rests. It's basic plan is to notice a turning point, look up the most salient event at the time, and then assume a casual relationship between the turning point and the salient event. I don't mean to criticise you personally - as I said, this is the Common wisdom - but this is just being intellectually lazy. There's always some event happening. Some events turn out to be causers, others not, and the question is always why: what is it in the STRUCTURAL ENVIRONMENT that made an event causally efficient? It is for this deep reason that events are never ultimate explanations, structures are.
to take a simple example, the Rainbow Tour was not a big mover. It made merely a passing impression on the polls, because of a ceratin same-day cognitive bias around the Berlin speech. So why would this apparently Big Deal make so little lasting impression, while the fairly small events of Late June Early July be so powerful? Why would the truly tiny things of mid-August turn out to have real-world consequences?
This is a structural question and one needs a structural answer. I suggested one, in terms of overall political temperature and its effect on Obama's numbers. I am open to other structural accounts. But event-based accounts are, I think, METHODOLOGICALLY unsound.
It seems Mule Rider has woken up from his nightly "dinner" of Mad Dog 20/20 and whippets; good to see you again.
And Pete Kent is, surprise surprise, inventing facts whole cloth (Michelle Obama is personally vetting VP picks? Laughable, but the "new Marie Antoinette" line was admittedly cute).
Add to that a plethora of McCain trolls (I know I chastised someone else yesterday for accusing their political opponents of being paid shills, but I can't help but wonder if someone's getting McCain Action Points from this site) suggesting that, now that Obama is only up by 1%, he has now irrevocably lost the election (despite jack black's constant and insipid reminders that there is no necessary correlation between summer polling numbers and general election results), and you have just another Wednesday morning on 538.
It's 90 degrees here in beautiful Birmingham, AL; hope y'all are having a great day.
Can someone explain to me what has happened in the last month that would have shifted the race fundamentally?
Has the economy gotten better?
Did the Iraq war become more popular?
Has the Republican brand been exonorated somehow?
Did Obama make any major mistakes?
Has the voter registration gap narrowed somehow in the last 3 weeks?
Am I confused or is today August 20th rather than October 20th. Conventions haven't happened, VP picks haven't been announced as well as the debates and yet you guys are going crazy over 3 days worth of polling in mid August.
VC-
Still, given that this used to be the seat of the Confederacy theres a greater chance of racial animus (especially when the MSM tries to ignite it).
Meh. It seems to me that being the seat of the CSA only matters to people who are still fighting the Civil War. I could be wrong, though. Nonetheless, I can empathize with your plight. Protests ticked me off when I lived in DC, and still do whenever I need to go around them to visit friends, shop, or even do visit museums for the 15th time. Don't those people know that they're in the way?
Additional evidence that this is just silly season with polling results all over the place...
RR LA Senate - Landrieu [dem] 53, Kennedy [rep] 37% = 16% advantage.
does anyone on this site take that seriously, especially when RR has McCain up by 17% this month in LA.
Last month it was only Landrieu by 5%.
Most of these numbers are noise & more noise in Mid-August...
but the national polls do suggest the historical mid-summer tightening of the race that Nate predicted would occur back in June.
Mason,
I'll give you any chance you want to get out of your basement and quit being a pussy. Being a smarmy internet geek doesn't make you jack shit in this world. Just a pathetic pile of garbage. So you tell me when and where and we'll see if you have half a sack, ass-clown.
"Cheney has just declared himself vice president for life! All hail the unitary executive."
A strong executive requires perpetual rule! How dare the Obama and McCain surrender to terrorists by holding an election?
VC, you're proably right about poll distortion, unless the afterglow lasts until polling day (as it did in 2004 for Bush).
MR-
LOL.
That is all.
Mason-
The liberal MSM loves, loves, LOVES to remind us we were on the losing side of the Civil War and therefore must be unrepentant racists.
Anyway in a twisted way it makes sense for BHO to announce on Friday, because it will overshadow the Clinton speeches in the convention. At least thats my read on it.
MULE,
PLEASE give it a rest. How nice can we ask you to stop all the hissy fits ?
Mason uses wit, you throw sh*t...
so stop embarr-ass-ing yourself
That's what I thought. Always a safe play when you're just a smart ass chump. Get back to your reacharound party, cum-breath.
Talking shit is for people who aren't afraid to back it up if they have to instead of hiding behind a screen in la-la land somewhere.
A little bit of sharp and biting wit is all good, but if you want to carry shit on like you did yesterday, I'll call you on it every time.
Like I said, go stick it up your ass, chump.
mason, stop being a pussy and fight the mule.
DCM,
The fight's not with you. So stay quiet or you'll be "embarrassed."
VA CON,
so pleasant to see you engaging in rational partisan behavior again today.
sorry if that PO's some others on this site [you know who]
VC-
The liberal MSM loves, loves, LOVES to remind us we were on the losing side of the Civil War and therefore must be unrepentant racists.
You ever think that if folks stopped flying the Battle Flag everywhere, then perhaps the issue might go away?
liverpool,
Humanist explained to us why the polls cycle and behave as they do.... and very cogently, I might add.
When the campaigns are in an active phase and there is lots of news, Obama ticks up. When we enter a period of the doldrums and not much is happening, Obama ticks down.
Now... guess which phase we are about to enter next?
Mule Rider
Talking shit is for people who aren't afraid to back it up if they have to instead of hiding behind a screen in la-la land somewhere.
I can't help but be amused by the irony.
Here's to you, Mr. Internet Tough Guy!
And...sorry, I don't have any change on me.
Mason-
People can fly whatever flag they please. I don't see a southerner flying Confederate Flag any differently from Irish Catholics flying an Irish flag. Its a weird ethnic sentiment, sure, but its not a unique one.
On state property? Given that the Confederacy doesn't exist anymore, the state government shouldn't be flying it. It makes as much sense as flying a British flag.
MR-
You want to go back over to that thread so I can drop some knowlege on you, or do you want to keep up whatever the hell it is you call what you're doing? You made several bad assumptions that are, leading you to incorrect conclusions.
Otherwise, get a life.
Sebelius still feels like the most likely Obama VP pick. Kaine a close second. Obama may have liked to have picked Bayh, but the left would revolt and Indiana probably isn't even in play anyway.
I had been convinced for months that McCain would pick Lieberman, even when Joe's intrade rating was down to about 0.5. Trial balloons are still going up about this, seemingly daily for the past two weeks, but consistently getting shot down by the right. It appears that McCain had it in mind all along to choose Lieberman, but certain elements of the party base, now tipped off about the plan, just won't allow it to happen. In some sense, McCain is a victim of his own success here -- if he were down 10 points right now, the right would likely be panicky enough to acquiesce to a Lieberman pick.
It won't be Romney -- that could actually turn Virginia and North Carolina blue.
Pawlenty's not a great pick, but he probably doesn't upset anyone (except people wishing for someone less boring). Putting Minnesota and Wisconsin into play certainly doesn't hurt. The dynamics now suggest McCain will win without a "game-changing" VP pick.
If the election were today, McCain would probably win, and this is before the horrid inevitable nasty ad roll-out. Come November we're probably going to see McCain win the popular vote by around 5% and pick off at least one or two Kerry states while holding all of the 2004 Bush states with the possible exception of Iowa.
ladies and gentlemen, we are entering 'filistro' phase.
There's no irony, jack ass. I've gladly offered away to securely exchange a meeting place somewhere in "reality-land" to Mason (or anyone else incline) to see how their "wit" holds up face-to-face.
I live in the Memphis metro area...I've given that much...so you'd know where to find me. Or I'll take the reverse and meet him on his stomping grounds. Like I said, just pick a time and a place.
I'm behind a screen now but I'll gladly step out from the shadows. Mason hasn't got the testicles to do such.
Mason, VCon
You ever think that if folks stopped flying the Battle Flag everywhere, then perhaps the issue might go away?
As a Southerner, that issue has always confused me too (and, yes, VCon, your state may be home to the second capital of the Confederacy, but the first is just short ride down I-65 from me).
Why fly the Confederate Battle Flag? It was co-opted by racists, and more than that, as a battle flag it represents armed resistance to the government. It is not a statement of heritage, but rather a bellicose gesture.
Why not instead fly the Bonnie Blue? It was never used by racists, and it was the (albeit unofficial) "state" flag of the CSA, rather than a military one. I think it adequately addresses the issue of recognizing Southern heritage without unnecessarily inflaming cultural divisions.
I would challenge the mule myself but i only fight with the bow and arrow as a rule. (don't much like roughhousing)
Robby-
I agree with you about the battle flag, there are better Confederate flags to fly that aren't as divisive. Sadly the opponents of integration co-opted the battle flag. Of course they also adopted the Christian cross, and no one says thats a racist symbol. So I say its all about context.
Just like the swastika can be a Nazi symbol, or in Japan it can mean good luck.
ROBBY,
last night on a previous thread, MULEHEAD was abusive to many & talkin smack to FILISTRO because [s]he was using wit & intelligence.
Then he repeatedly called Filistro out to an alley brawl in his hometown cuz he is a tuff guy.
Filistro pointed out his 'ass'umption that it would be a fair fight - since she is a small girl.
guess who had his panties in a bunch ? which is probably why he tried to insult Nate at the top of this thread today with that retort. so unoriginal & sad...
But my money would be on Filistro to win in a TKO
Well at least in the trackers Obama is up one (Ras) or two (Gallup).
They've been really stable, with Obama ahead or tied the last 76 days in a row, and Rasmussen essentially a near dead heat with just a few McCain one point leads since the beginning of June.
No, I'll bring it over here jackass and show the rest of the forum what a big clown you are...
Yeah, going to one of yesterday's threads....this was the big "gotcha" and "zinger" Mr. Mason used on me....
What was it you ask?
I must have lied about a poll or some other election statistic?
No.
I must have used inaccurate stats in talking about an election issue such as energy, health care, the war, etc.?
No.
I must have made some other egregious tactical mistake in a debate/discussion?
No.
I was hammered and zinged with a "gotcha" for not knowing and making a smart-ass reply to a poster the "word" pwned (and, "all your base are belong to us")
To which I was hounded incessantly only to have Mason (and a few others) give themselves thunderous applause and praise for nailing me and "embarrassing" me so beautifully.
That's the kind of liberal trash and immature nut-stains we have posting on here...if that's their "resounding victory" over me...that I got "pwned."
Mason, why couldn't your dad have just pulled back a couple of inches and laid it on the belly instead? We'd all be so much better of...
Virgicon, you are right to point out that the same thing (whether a symbol or a human being) in a different time and place can have a different connotation. In Georgia, for example, the mule rider is accounted the wisest of creatures and is reserved a seat of honor in all the best homes, temples, palaces and public urinals.
VC-
Pretty much my sentiments on the issue. Self-expression is A-OK even if it's a bit odd. (Numerous body piercings? It's your face.)
States flying engsigns that flew in rebellion? Seems like a bad idea.
The thing is, you have to realize that by flying the flag (any flag) you are saying something about yourself to others. It is a part of Southern Heritage, but that flag in particular flew in front of armies seeking to cleave the nation in two and maintain a peculiar institution. That's an inescabable association. It's not unreasonable for people to remember that when seeing that flag, just as it's not unreasonable to ask a guy flying an Italian flag if he knows a good deli.
Filistro,
I understand that. It is just little bit silly for Republicans to get excited over their guy pulling even with Barack in Mid August. And fundamentals are way in favor of Barack.
In fact Barack remings of Bush in that Barack's campaign strategy is almost copy cat of Bush's. Energize the vote, register as many new people as possible, have a huge on ground operation and this is most important LOOK CONFIDENT. Bush never once thought he would lose the election even though his polls in the summer of 2004 were just attrocious.
I'm not normally the leak type, but I have some inside information.
And when you hear it, it all makes sense. Think about it -- Obama needs someone who sends a message of bipartisanship. He's set up all this anticipation, and he needs a name that people will recognize. He needs someone who has the gravitas of an elder statesman while still underscoring his message of change.
There's just an elder statesman -- once allied with the Republican party, but who notably hasn't endorsed any candidate currently and was never a strong George W. supporter -- who's perfect for the job. He's an old Washington hand who would still send the message that this is not politics as usual. While seen as an experienced figure, at 61, he's easily young enough to be a credible VP. And, like Evan Bayh, he has deep roots in that key swing state of Indiana -- he was the young, charismatic knight who unseated Evan Bayh's father Birch in 1980. Popularity, name recognition, electoral merit, credibility, and a message of bipartisanship -- this man has it all.
That's right. I'm pleased to announce to you that Obama's choice for Vice President will be J. Danforth Quayle.
But the point is that in a close election where there is no clear leader small events on the ground can change the outcome. See Florida ca 2000!
The reason the race is close is that Obama connects with people at a very cerebral level. But not on a visceral one. He's too laid back and cool for that.
If you saw Mark Warner and Bill Clinton campaign, you would know what a visceral connection is.
Obama won't necessarily lose because of this, but he really doesn't use words and phrases that are emotional in his regular day. His speeches are moving but in a very cerebral and Obama arrives at an emotional conclusion the cerebral way.
Obama explains his reasoning and has had a transparent and consistent message of better government. All his policies stem from consistent moral/righteous lattice.
But that's not a visceral connection. There's no empathy there, not an emotional kind of empathy. I don't want an empathizer in-chief. I want someone cool, with good judgment and good orientation. Obama was right about the war precisely because of that reason.
But that's the small number of highly educated voters. Most people want to be serenaded into heaven not think their way into it.
That's a feat Obama cannot accomplish and that's why this race is so close.
MULE
you are still gonna embarr-ass yourselg further just because yesterday you made a fool of yourself by not letting it go ?
you made a simple mistake yesterday that anyone could make. granted. BUT you just couldn't and still will not stop trying to blame it on EVERYONE else ad nauseum [literally].
we have moved on, why can't you ?
pwned ;-) [lol]
DCM
I've been only half-reading Mule Rider; he's in my mental "don't take too seriously" category (along with jack black, and Pete Kent wanders in and out of that category, depending on whether or not he's taken his meds).
But to seriously address the "substance" of his "contributions" to the "discussion," once you threaten physical violence in an argument, you are in effect saying that you're not smart enough to make your point. It doesn't matter who did it first; if one can only win an argument with fists, he/she doesn't have basic intelligence to say anything of value, and it would be better for all parties involved if that individual just left.
Unfortunately, it's the internet, so we're stuck with the trolls. Me, I'm just enjoying myself on my day off.
Mikelow,
The recent stability of the trackers is interesting. They behaved differently with the July downtrend: that one was picked by Ras but not by Gallup. Right now, BOTH Ras and Gallup fail, as it were, to pick up the downtrend.
Gallup has an RV methodology and it does seem that the July downtrend was fundamentally a decision among marginal Obama supporters to go on a political holiday, so that they were no longer picked up as Likely Voters. ("Do you follow the elections?" - "Not really").
Right now there seems to be something that damps the downtrend within Ras' methodology. Most likely this is Party ID weighting. I.e.: the Democrats slightly disengage from the political process to some extent so that they even have a slight tendency to participate less in the polls. Ras corrects for this and others do not.
'Liverpool' is making a good point. Indeed, there are many worse people -and maybe none better- than Bush to copy when it comes to winning elections.
ROBBY,
I agree completely. And I do know better than to feed the trolls.
But damm, sometimes it is just to much fun to 'poke' one that acts the phool & will not stop.
But it is like picking a scab - not worth it...
Enjoy your day off. Here in central FL we still are under the slowest moving tropical storm possible. And waiting to see if it picks up strength again off shore & circles back on us as a 'cane'. So plenty of time for the 'puter since most everything including government offices & schools are closed.
DNFTT
VC, Robby-
It probably comes down to recognition. Symbols have to be widely known to have any power.
Everyone knows what the battle flag is, but how many people would know what the "Stars and Bars" or "Bonnie Blue" was.
MR-
Whatever. Don't you have commodities to go trade?
Mason,
hopefully MULE took a break for lunch. [eating his bale of hay perhaps...]
I will resist poking him further unless he keeps flinging the real nasty personal abuse & the F-bomb like he was dropping yesterday.
DNFTT
Mason,
Actually, I do need to get back to work...instead of getting bogged down in distractions like hurling insults at people defending myself for not knowing "pwned"...I mean, damn, that is REALLY embarrassing.
Oooh, Mule Rider has now officially jumped the shark to Internet Tough Guy. Sad.
Anyhow, Rasmussen has Obama up by 2 or 3, and Gallup has Obama up by 2. Same as about always, so I'm not concerned yet. But I do have to say, the more Clinton is in the spotlight, the worse Obama does in states like Ohio, Indiana, and Missouri. Hopefully, after the conventions, either she'll be in the background or on his side. Actually having her come out against him might be better than this.
In order to have somebody get over 55% of the vote, somebody's got to dominate the debates. So we're just not going to see any evidence of anything until the debates happen.
Looks like Vladdy is responding to his ol' buddy GWB's request for some help in the election.
MULE,
how about a multi-lateral ceasefire & truce ?
Mule Rider and DCM,
I wish you'd both just shut up. All you do is argue back and forth all the time. Anyway I'm a McCain supporter and I've been bashing Zogby for months (Obama +1 in SC). I believe he's wrong here too. I think the race is something like tied-Obama +1 more in line with the Rasmussen and Gallup trackers. The electoral vote however is perilously close to swinging to McCain, depending on Colorado. This election is no where near over, it's just getting started
MR-
Bye!
DCM-
I know, I know... DNFTT. But damn... The fool thinks gaming is "fringe" because various iterations of Warcraft have sold only 20,000,000 copies. I mean, nevermind that there have been 100,000,000 consoles sold in the US since 2000.
James,
you may be right. no one suggests that the race at this moment is not tight.
there are about 6 red states that are in play realistically at this time. blues ? not so much, but maybe MI & NH
2 REDS probably most likely to flip [NM & IA] means Obama would most likely count on 264 EVs.
He needs to seal the deal in at least one of the other swing REDS that we all know [CO, VA, OH, FL, NV, et al] or add a few of the 3-4 EV longshots like MT & AK, etc.
Regardless, short of a major real movement post-conventions it will be the usual predictable close EV end result - but the odds still slightly favor Obama since he has more routes to victory while McCain must play defense.
I said Warcraft was "fringe" not gaming...thus, the use of "pwned" is fringe.
MULE,
cease fire dude
Role reversal as far as I can tell -- Obama is now the underdog.
This race isn't McCain vs. Obama it's Schmidt vs. Axelrod and the limp-wristed liberal is getting schooled by the Rove disciple.
This is painful for me to say but Bush I destroyed Dukakis in August '88, Bush II destroyed Gore in August '00, Bush II and the SwiftBoaters destroyed Kerry in August '04, and it looks like McCain has cleaned Obama's clock in August '08. Knowing the history of the GOP August onslaught how is it that Obama and his campaign thought that a 9 day vacation in August in the middle of a hotly contested presidential campaign was a good idea??
Obama and his peeps will either be proven geniuses or the biggest choke artists of all political time come 11/4.
I can not believe with all of his advantages that BO is now losing to the wrinkly-white-haired-dude.
DCM,
I'm going to provide the accurate description of what I said, but yeah, I'm tired of touching it. You guys' insistence on claiming victory over me (pwning?) based on something as childish as that speaks to the level of douchebaggedness you really are at, seeing as how you haven't/can't nail me on anything else.
First of all, on the "topic du jour," I think he announces the VP early Thursday. Letting this slide to Friday and what Nate correctly calls the weekend (especially a late August weekend) "dead zone" is a lost opportunity to dominate two days going into the convention.
As for what might or might not be scheduled, schedules can be changed, with Obama's bucks he can send a plane to pick anybody up anywhere secretly (remember that Hil and Barry pulled off their tete a tete in Feinstein's home with the national media breathing down their necks and two USSS details in tow).
The Kaine private event can become a public event in another venue quickly.
Given the way the polls are breaking, it makes more and more sense for this to be Kaine or Hillary. I'm betting Kaine and the prospect of picking up VA.
the national polls are slightly deceiving in that the internal regional analysis showed that McCain leads in only 1 of 4 regions [the south] and he picked up his additional apparent strength by widening his margins there.
McCain was still trailing Obama in all 3 of the other regions, but by narrower margins. The southern region has a disproportionate influence on the cumulative results.
Regardless, the popular vote [and EV projection] are close as predictive analysis suggested would be the case before Labor Day as usual.
"'m betting Kaine and the prospect of picking up VA."
Oh please oh please oh please oh please Kaine PLEASE!
This race will be won and lost in the 3 debates.
All the other stuff is sideline.
This election is a referendum on Obama.
If McCain wins, he will have to win the debates.
If Obama wins, he will have to win the debates.
The public will be sick and tired of TV commercials by mid-OCT.
All the other stuff you guys are bickering about is just for your own enjoyment.
The election comes down to the debates.
MR.... For the last damn time... "Pwned" is FROM Warcraft (even that is disputable). It is not EXCLUSIVE to Warcraft. Anybody who has had pretty much any contact with a multiplayer vidogame in the LAST 10 years knows what the term means.
No mas.
I'm claiming victory because you defaulted when you went ITG.
MASON,
quit picking at the scab please...
Mason,
Sorry, evidently no contact with multiplayer gaming in last 10 years. Enlighten me. A lot of the abbreviations here confuse me.
Daniel,
I guess you haven't read up on Mr. Axelrod. The day that weasel Schmidt outplays old school Chicago style politician like him, will be something.
And oh yeah, all you guys forget that Obama ain't too bad at playing politics himself....with all this change and hope nonsense if you dig little futher Barack is an example of old school south side politician. He is a very common sense politician, not an idealist like many would believe. Read up on how he won his first election.
JAMES,
NO, take it somewhere else so that MULE will quiet down & behave. It will only antagonize him further...
please
Well, I didn't know what it means...so put me in the 35%, 50%, 65%, or whatever% who didn't know what it means...NO MATTER WHERE IT ORIGINATED.
Was that worth your big victory dance? If that's your only "gotcha," then you have to do much better to show me up.
The last I checked, familiarity or unfamiliarity with the word "pwned" makes about ZERO difference in anything related to anything of significance.
My utter apologies for not being familiar with such an inane phrase....now, you need to get familiar with that quarter of an inch flab of skin in your crotch area that spews yellowish water every few hours.
If Obama is almost tied with McCain going into the debates, he can't really ask for more than that.
He is a 40's something black guy with a couple of years of Senate experience, running for president in a racist conservative and young country that is still influenced by its protestant religious traditions.
Going into the debates with a chance to win is all Obama could ever hope for.
Don't worry Obama will capture the electorate's imagination before November. As for VP, Wesley Clark would be the best choice. And while I'm no fan, Hillbillary would make for a nice bump.
Sorry, DCM... I'm suicide bombing this one.
James- Go back and read the thread about Nate's Wash. Times live chat.
MR-
Never mind that you did the same douchebag thing in this thread that you did in that one:
Show up within five minutes of the thread going up, calling Nate a wanker, and then saying you had better things to do.
Get a life loser. Stop hanging aroun hiting F5, so that you can go "FRIST P)ST. NATE'S A WANKER."
DCM,
Grow up! Can't you be mature enough not to respond? Jeez you'd think you're all a bunch of teenagers.
DCM, I wouldn't get too hung up on the regional splits in the polling data and take solace in that.
It's to be expected that McCain support would be consolidate first in the areas where he's already strongest, because those undecided voters can be presumed to be more easily persuaded.
That's both because flipping is closer to the norm in those areas (making it a shorter putt) and because there are more people doing the missionary work trying to convince the undecideds.
It's also the reason why the deeply partisan areas rarely ever flip, as they become echo chambers with little prospect for a weak-kneed or uncaring undecided (as most are) to break out.
MR-
The last I checked, familiarity or unfamiliarity with the word "pwned" makes about ZERO difference in anything related to anything of significance.
Except when you jump all over somebody for using it. Then you're just being a douchebag.
OK, ok, can I just suggest we all use "the google" in the future to research anything that you are not sure of before you post ?
maybe even McCain has learned how to do that now so he will stop with the hoof in mouth stuff
James,
Yeah, go read it. While I take some blame, I think it's obvious it took a group effort of tools to bring the discussion down to the level it got.
And you can see how ridiculous their argument really is.
Mason,
Two words. Fuck off.
You don't even see how silly and ridiculous you are. You're making yourself a fool in front of everybody...although I realize I'm doing myself no favors by staying with you toe to toe.
RUDY,
your response is my point exactly. I was cautioning on reading too much into ANY poll or data at this point was all.
I was not making excuses, only pointing at what constitutes real analysis as opposed to reading toplines as most of the poser/posters on here are wont to do.
Comeone guys, can the three of you, mule rider, dcm and mason take this somewhere else?
JAMES,
what is your problem ? are you a troll too ?
I merely requested that you NOT try to further antagonize a poster on this thread who thinks he is being picked on unfairly.
get a clue & quit attacking people unfairly or you will get a bad rep [IMO]
VCon... you've been begging for Clinton, Biden and Kaine.
Just curious (you're safe since Caroline Kennedy probably hardly ever reads our comments here...:-) who among the Dem possibles actually SCARES you a bit?
Liverpool-
I suggested that at 12:14. My offer was, shall we say, declined.
Post a Comment