The headline in yesterday’s released Pew survey says it all: “Obama’s Trip: Seen but not Heard.” In an election season where the simplest macros reign (it’s a change election, it’s the demographics, stupid, etc.), another longstanding advertising maxim rules the day: it’s the images and not the content of what you say that people remember.
Lesley's Parable from 1984 is not one to forget. Lesley Stahl’s nearly six-minute, hard-hitting CBS piece contained image after image of a smiling Reagan and enthusiastic, flag-waving crowds. Delighted, Michael Deaver called Stahl to thank her. "Nobody heard what you said" was the famous comment. In subsequent focus groups, Stahl discovered fewer than 25% of the group could recall what was said in the piece they had just watched.
This is why, while 90% of Americans had heard about the trip and 62% of Americans had heard a lot about it according to Pew’s findings, slightly less than half report having learned anything about Obama’s foreign policy views. Only 15% reported learning a great deal about those views. But they sure did see the images of a smiling and confident Obama in front of massive, American-flag waving crowds. Likewise, I’m sure the McCain ads showing Obama playing basketball with the troops with voiceover about how Obama didn’t visit the troops sent one clear message – hey, Obama visited the troops!
The further Pew finding, consistent with past polls, is that the press has shown pro-Obama bias. Though it inspires derision from Democratic corners (for example, I think a “marvelous ape” rape joke or calling his wife the C-word in public would instantly and justifiably end Obama’s campaign), the idea that the press is giving Obama the free ride is inarguably settled into the public consciousness. By a wide margin, among Democratic (by 18 points), independent (by 36 points) and Republican (by 70 points) voters alike, this is a settled issue.
Among an avalanche of other examples, here you have CBS unethically hiding an importantly dishonest McCain answer on the surge timing vis-à-vis the Anbar Awakening, you have AP Washington bureau chief Ron Fournier writing love notes to Karl Rove and having been in negotiations to join McCain’s campaign press staff, and it’s not even close among Democratic voters that the press favors Obama. That’s called utter failure of the Democratic blogosphere to influence the debate on press favoritism. Democratic bloggers and television analysts need to accept that if they want to fight this battle they need to scrap the entire ineffective strategy they’re using and start from scratch.
That’s if they want to have that fight. Conisder Stahl’s focus group lesson and the one from Obama’s Europe trip. They may just want to sit back and let the images trump all the yapping that isn’t registering anyway.
Update - Tom in comments makes a good point about McCain's "The One" ad. Go here and watch with the sound off. Consider the imagery, body language, smiling shots of Obama in front of happy crowds and put yourself in the shoes of one of Stahl's focus group people not listening to what she said. Would you be sure this was an anti-Obama ad?
8.01.2008
How You Look, How You Sound, What You Say
by Sean Quinn @ 6:56 PM
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Another potential example of this - images trumps words - is McCain's new "The One" Web ad. To me, that seems like a very risky move for him. Sure, right-wingers will love it, but they were already on board the Straight Talk Express, so to speak. To undecided voters, though, there are an awful lot of very triumphant images of Obama there (ditto for the Britney/Paris ad).
Can you put all that in images for me please?
I am seeing Photobucket "Bandwidth Exceeded" images in this post.
Hey Sean. I know Nate said to Don't. BE. AN. AH. But can you please not be a homer. Obama is getting his ass kicked now because he lacks any credible experience.
By the way for all you left wing trolls, Obama is now on the verge of changing his mind on offshore drilling. Yes, that's right.
All those people coming on this site defending BHO for his views on Offshore drilling and now he is about to throw you under a bus, just like his grandmother.
I think it's obvious why the msm do not expose McCain's prolific faux pas, and that's because if they did so it would so totally sink McCain's campaign and turn the whole race into an Obama 'done deal' that the msm's market would dry up and they would lose revenue. The bottom line is to manipulate the story going out so as to give the impression that 'THIS IS A REALLY EXCITING RACE'
McCain campaign is trying to show that Obama hasn't a vision for the Nation...he is similar to a preacher...i don't known if this strategy can be right...will see...
Jack, it might have been more helpful if you'd posted a link. Here's one:
http://thepage.time.com/2008/08/01/obama-opens-door-to-possibility-of-offshore-drilling/
And speaking as someone who's written a lot here about offshore drilling, I haven't myself been interested in defending Obama's position. Rather, I've been trying to show that the economic benefits of offshore drilling are essentially nil, and that the political advantages of pushing for drilling may be less than the Republicans think they are.
I don't really have a problem with Obama changing his policy, just so long as he doesn't do anything silly like claim that offshore drilling will actually lower oil prices.
and don't forget his record...he isn't a moderate...he cannot unify american people...he is one of the most liberal in senate...
"or calling his wife the C-word in public would instantly and justifiably end Obama’s campaign"
If it were based on the word of a couple of anonymous sources and published years and years later in a sleazy book? Please. It's just as credible as the Larry Sinclair allegations... which is to say that no one except partisan hacks can take it seriously.
Tom - excellent point. Weirdly, the big guy on stage with Obama in that ad is one of my best friends.
Joe - I think I fixed it. Hopefully.
Jack - I think you may have missed my point. Dems who push the press-loving-McCain argument are executing that argument terribly, as the polling data shows. I don't think that's homerism.
Cons from Rome.
Of corurse, McCain isn´t a conservative.
Look at the south pools now and 2004 pools. Bush leads in the south red states for 20-25%. Now McCain leads Georgia for only 7%, North Carolina for 3% and he loses in Virginia.
The GOP playbook has been..ok, no enthusiasm with our candidate, so let's just demonize our opponent. Kerry tried that in 2004, didn't work. If Obama supporters are characterized as "Kool Aid" drinkers, I think the GOP is drinking Maalox.
Doesn't the second point in some ways prove the first? Obama looks really good on television and has been managed to the point that the staging always looks great. So the media shows him in a nice light. When McCain shows up in front of a green screen, you don't have the same visceral reaction. So when someone asks if the press favors one candidate, regardless of content, you remember a media clip of a well staged candidate compared to a media clip of a candidate in front of a green screen, and presto. Perceived press bias.
I'd be curious if anyone else thinks there's a connection here.
I credit Nate's view about the Stahl thing, but Obama's pictures are a mixed bad.
Undeniably seeing him with the troops, no matter the commentary, makes the point that he was with the troops.
The Press Conf with the French PM and the Brit probably helped Obama show that at least he could be credible. But they also showed his presumption.
His speech in Germany contained so many perils that you would have thought he would have done more than deliver a banal address (made electric only by the crowd, the setting and Obama's delivery) that had as its main takeaways that Obama will be the German's President too and that it was entirely appropriate to criticize and apologize for America in front of an enthused crowd of foreigners.
The stuff in the Middle East seemed not to register. Not sure why.
The meme on this trip eventually became that while it may not have done him short term good, it may have furthered his cause by easing doubts in the future about his ability to lead on the word stage. But of late, as reflected in this and other polls, the public seems either not to have noticed or to have been mildly to heavy disapproving of the trip, with reaction breaking down along electoral affiliation lines.
It may prove that the Rainbow Tour cost too much, especially given how bad the first week back went for him.
Chalk it up to jet lag?
Or to continual bad press coverage (even on MSNBC), coupled with protests from African Americans at his rally, and Nancy Pelosi using Politburo tactics to close down debate in the House.
It’s gonna be a bumpy weekend for Obama.
He needs to lock down his VP pick soon or do something else to stop the bleeding.
Are we at an inflection point? Or will McCain be turned back in the polling?
Do we believe that the polling reflects anything of relevance towards predicting the eventual winner of this thing? Or just a stale and outdated portrait of a moment?
The reason why most Americans are convinced the Press favors Obama despite the obvious and clear evidence that it's totally the reverse is because the right-wing has been attacking the "liberal media" since the 1960s.
The very phrase "conservative media bias" just doesn't resonate because Republicans have made "liberal media bias" a part of their attacks for so long.
Here's the gaffes McCain has made over the past several weeks. The media has ignored every one of them. Any of these committed by Obama would have occasioned weeks of endless media speculation about whether Obama is "really ready to lead."
In this satire, the author imagines the reaction if Obama had committed them:
"Obama Campaign Reeling: Ignorant Gaffes to Blame
In just a few short weeks, Obama has insisted that Shiite Iran is training hardline Sunni Al-Qaeda (forcing Republican Chuck Hagel to twice step in and correct the error), talked about the non-existent border between Iraq and Pakistan, asserted that the surge in 2007 began before the Anbar awakening in 2006, confused Sudan and Somalia, inaccurately called David Petraeus the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, repeatedly referred to the nonexistent nation of Czechoslovakia, and ignored Afghanistan by calling Iraq the first major conflict after 9/11. And these are only a few of Obama's recent gaffes.
Meanwhile, Iraqi president Nouri Al-Maliki was recently quoted in a German magazine supporting McCain's plan to stay in Iraq for the full 100 years necessary to stabilize the oil-rich nation, which in turn forced the Obama campaign to adopt McCain's rhetoric, calling for a "centennial withdrawal horizon."
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/7/28/15229/1412
All these unforced errors and embarrassing repudiations by the facts were brushed off by the adoring press. To pretend that this is equal treatment of the "liberal media" is to engage in willful blindness.
The MSM is and remains as McCain himself put it "my base."
This Pew poll is being spun in ways I find odd.
Look at the actual numbers.
22% of people said they learned "nothing at all" "from Obama's trip about his foreign policy views."
That's an awfully small number.
Yes; another 30% answered "not much."
But be honest, since most of you are high-information voters. Did you learn much about his foreign policy views from this trip?
This is not necessarily a case of the images winning over the words, as it is a case of we had already been paying attention, and didn't get surprised during the trip.
Now look at some other Pew numbers:
When asked "who would do the best job of defending the country from a terrorist attack," McCain's advantage dropped from 55 to 31 pre-trip to 48 to 33 post-trip. That's not so much a flip to Obama as a gain in the "neither" category, meaning Obama is making some progress neutralizing the issue.
Likewise, when it came to "making wise decisions about Iraq," McCain dropped from a 47 to 41 lead to a 44 to 41 lead.
As long as Obama can keep the fraction who thinks McCain is stronger on those issues below 50, he's doing well, because McCain's perceived strength has been neutralized with enough of the electorate to get him a victory. If he can get them below 45, it will be a rout, even if McCain's advantage was 43 to 0.
For italian ( european ) standards McCain is a strong conservative!
But for american standars McCain is not a conservative.
Two things that make it very, very difficult for McCain, and that won't be helped by these negative ads...
1.) At the Gallup site, Obama has held a remarkably stable lead of at least +5 among independent voters for the entire month of July
2.) An informal survey of threads at the Free Republic site shows a very dispirited and disaffected base. In spite of rampant Obama hatred over there, a large group of stalwarts are still sufficiently disgusted with McCain on policy that they plan either to sit out the election or vote third party.
Images of Britney, Moses, Paris, and Berlin won't help with thoughtful independents, or with disillusioned movement conservatives... and those are McCain's two biggest problems.
The reason the liberal blogosphere has little influence is that you are all talking to yourselves. Instead of an echo chamber, you have a black hole.
Whatever you think of Hannity, Rush, O'reilly and the rest, people watch and listen. The liberal blogosphere is where talk radio was 20 years ago.
As far as concervative blogs, there are very few high visiblity sites. Each of the sites take a different viewpoint. NRO has the intellectual/theoretical side. Red state has had a more focused edge on the immigration side.
If you go to a site like KOS or Huff, you get sucked down the drain of one dimentional thinking. It's almost Orwellian>
Yes i know...republican base don't like him very much...i myself prefer GW Bush or Mike Huckabee to him...but this year is the only republican can beat democrats...i hope i can do it!
Barack Obama did not change his policy.
He was against oil drilling in the Gulf.
He is still against oil drilling in the Gulf.
But he is willing to support a bill that would allow oil drilling in the Gulf if it would also get rid of tax breaks for oil compainies and numerous other things he wants.
It's like FISA. He's always said he was willing to work across the aisle. Only the Netroots people didn't seem to realize that they wouldn't be meeting in left field.
Watched McCain's "The One" video today with out turning my speakers on. Seemed a great promo for Obama.
Seemed Pat Buchanan had a similar criticism of the Britney/Paris commercial--negative ads aren't supposed to show your opponent in front of crowds of people waving American flags.
Those Pew numbers are alarming!
The "Not Much" category consists of people who are embarrassed they did not learn anything.
********
I heard the same thing the poster said above: Obama is looking to change course on drilling.
Let's see how desperate and unprincipled the Obama supporters are and if they wind up giving him a free pass.
Now many of you here (frustrated gamblers and handicappers, not really true believers!) have argued that all of Obama's problems will be solved once he embraces drilling.
If he does, your problems will only begin!
"As far as concervative blogs, there are very few high visiblity sites. Each of the sites take a different viewpoint. NRO has the intellectual/theoretical side. Red state has had a more focused edge on the immigration side."
Good point
NRO: The rich need more tax breaks
Red state: Non-white immigrants are bad
Yes, conservative blogs do have different insights. It is always exciting watching the extreme right and the far right engage in debates.
if Obama embraces drillings NOW he shows himself like the biggest flip-flopper ever!
You clowns are just realizing now that Obama is losing. He's been losing since the beginning of this month. And it has nothing to do with experience or his over sea trip or any of that nonsense. Jeez, you idiots.
The McCain camp is manipulating the media. The media only covers outrage, and off the wall attacks, and anything to keep eyeballs watching. During the last month, Obama has seen his numbers go up one week (when he was abroad) and the other 3 weeks they have gone down. Obama is not creating news. he's not attacking and for a while wasn't doing anything but giving boring speeches. Since adding Schmidt the Rove disciple McCain has completely owned the press coverage.
Half the country believes Obama get better press when the facts show he gets way worse press than McCain, but he gets way more. McCain has completely abandoned issues, the entire election is going to be Paris Hilton, Obama hates the troops, he's a traitor, now he's the messiah. The press can't help themselves. They cover outrageousness. So the McCain camp is filling them up. A new outrageous ad every day. It's brilliant strategy. I actually heard Andrea Mitchell say tonight, "The McCain camp knows we are going to cover this stuff, and thats what he wants." All you have to do is put an outrageous ad out and it gets wall to wall coverage. Play the race card, and it gets amplified. Who needs issues.
The Republicans do this every year, they make it about everything but issues through media spin. Thats why the Clinton's are so good, they do it really well too. Obama has not learned a thing over the last 2 elections. He says the American people are beyond this and It won't work this year, well its working. Even if the voters don't want to see it they are being bombarded by it.
Wall to wall Paris Hilton and the Race Card. On a day when Exxon Mobile made record profits and Obama said he may bend on offshore drilling. Even Obama changing his mind on drilling can't break through. I've said it before and I'll say it again, our elections are won in the media. The republicans play the game, the Clintons play the game, Obama doesn't. He will lose. He had better start finding some fake outrage and outrageous ads because McCain isn't going to stop. THE MEDIA WILL COVER THE SPECTACLE. RATINGS ARE KING.
Gallup today asked supporters of each candidate if their guy was getting fair coverage. McCainiacs overwhelmingly said no, Obamans a little under half said no. Interesting that it is exactly opposite.
"Conservative from Rome",
Of course you forget John "flipflop" McCain was against offshore drilling until he was paid 30 pieces of silver (or 1.1 million dollars) by Big Oil.
Thank you for playing.
Pete, you continue to rely on next week's tracking polls as evidence for your arguments.
"It’s gonna be a bumpy weekend for Obama.
He needs to lock down his VP pick soon or do something else to stop the bleeding.
Are we at an inflection point? Or will McCain be turned back in the polling?"
Let's wait for the evidence to come in first, shall we?
Matt J.H... You really don't sound like a guy who believes in Change You Can Believe In.
nc moderate...i know very well McCain was against drillings...but he changed his mind because high gas prices...he changed for a good reason but Obama was against drillings all these past weeks...so if NOW he agrees he is a REAL FLIP-FLOPPER!
If drilling is McCain's big issue what are you neocons going to run on when he compromises? Call him a flip-flopper? McCain already flipped on drilling that will never gain traction. I've been hoping he'd do it. It's like kicking the GOP in the nuts.
Just for a piece of anecdotal support for the images>words argument:
I had my computer muted while watching McCain's ad, because some website had weird sound effects.
All I saw were pictures of Obama and waving American flags. I'm not sure where anyone could find "presumption." If I didn't already know, I would not have even known it was taking place in Germany.
Most people are distracted anyway when watching ads, or barely paying attention. Seriously, who perks up at political ads in July? Likely only commenters on 538 ...
And then the final shot with "I approved this message" just has McCain looking slightly confused, as if he were thinking, "Hmm, why could I have pictures of me giving speeches with American flags."
I would ask a McCain supporter to watch the ad again on mute, and tell me how they might view it differently than I have suggested.
I tell you what fillistro, I'd settler for change that can win. It doesn't matter how principled you are if you lose. Nobody cares. Gore was very principled, even got more votes. Nobody cares. Kerry was principled, nobody cares. Our country is going off a cliff because of our media. They will not cover issues. Only the outrageous for ratings. They can't help themselves, its like an addict needing their fix. McCain is supplying the drugs and they are filling up. Obama may not like the game but thats how its played. It does nobody any good to have this principled guy, leader of millions if he loses. Principle doesn't win elections in America. Media spin does.
Gas gets a quarter cheaper and ruining the Florida coast isn't going to be a fun position, children.
Matt J seems to have inside information on Obama's about face on drilling. I have not seen the details.
The poster bravely defends this as consistency as long as he gets something in exchange for his turn around.
Worse Obama is only pretending to be getting rid of tax breaks for big oil.
Matt JH seems to have inside information on Obama's about face on drilling. I have not seen the details.
The poster bravely defends this as consistency as long as he get something in exchange for his turn around.
Worse he is only pretending to be getting rid of tax breaks for big oil.
OBAMA IS DECEIVING YOU.
There is no such thing as special tax breaks for "big oil". They benefit like other similarly situated companies and make profits of 8% on average, way below respectable bench marks for profitability.
Because they have gotten large, they can be efficient and absorb a large cost structure and because they are largely middle men, buying as much as producing oil, that size helps them to be competitive and better deliver gasoline and other refined products in never ending supply.
Since Carter we have solved the supply problem. The problem he caused and others fixed.
Do we entrust our gas prices to Obama, Jimmy Carter redux?
So Obama’s about face will do him little good among the drillers and only enrage the environmentalists who will unseat him to put together the ultimate dream ticket:
Gore, A,/Clinton, C. ’08!!!!
The conservatives are getting pretty confident pretty quickly. I'll remind you that this guy got into Chicago politics by getting everyone one of his competitors thrown off the ticket. He also beat the Clintons - you know the Clintons who beat republicans twice for the white house. I'll cede McCain the tactical this week but it won't belong until McCain won't be able to outspend Obama anymore and we'll see if Obama is the light weight you think he is.
Survey USA poll:
Missouri:
McCain: 49
Obama: 44
Matt J.H...
I don't think this is the time to lose your nerve. The entire Obama phenomenon was based on change, and exposed an enormous hunger for a new kind of politics. If, after getting nicked a bit in the very first skirmishes, his campaign falls back on the old tried-and-true tactics... then what's left? Nothing but an inexperienced candidate who's younger and better-looking than his opponent.
And (musings on image aside) looks are not enough. The change needs to be real... and to be SEEN as real by voters... or you'll never win.
Marc Ambinder actually put my point quite well today:
"Lookit. Let's make a distinction between short term and long term. In the short term, to those low information voters whose opinion swings from day to day or week to week, Obama's had the rougher go of it. The Britney ad sold. Even if the optics were bad for McCain in the long-term, the conversation was about Obama's presumed presumptuous and riskiness. In the long-term, who knows? This presidential race is not like a football game where points accumulate cumulatively. In politics, the fourth quarter matters a lot more than the third quarter, although the third quarter can certainly influence the play in the fourth. My sense is that the Obama campaign is not surprised by the tightening; that they are not particularly worried by it; that it does not disrupt their field strategy or general election message; that they are more irked than concerned about the coverage; and that they believe that the hit is short term."
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/08/gallup_tracking_closes_some_th.php
In one word: chill!
Revival of a Salesman
Matt JH your candor is refreshing. I agree with your analysis of how the race has gone for the past month and where it is going. But I totally disagree with your hanging it on the media! The media cover the story, the meme, and it has a life of its own.
The stories about McCain are less important right now.
Obama is the newbie and is more intrinsically interesting and his policy positions need more 'splainin' than McCain's. Especially on the war and on energy. His arguments so much more intricate and nuanced.
Read: Bullshit
McCain's message is clear and direct and appealing. That he is not as good a salesman, does not mean that his case does not carry the better goods!
(A cookie to whomever can tell me where I borrowed that last line from)
PeteKent-- haha, I can pull up quotes of you predicting an inflection point since June. It's always right around the corner I guess.
Pete... Willy Loman? ( I like cookies :-)
this race at the moment is a tossup...everyone can see...of course you can say McCain is doomed but it's only your hope!
I feel like the national polls and state polls haven't been in synch.
The post about Obama being ahead of Kerry makes it seem very weird that he isn't polling that much better than the 04 election. Bush won a close election- but he won the south and the western conservative states by 20- and all the state polling show those leads way down. Obama is polling better among minorities, and liberal states have similar polling- with many swing states way up- WI, IA, VA, OH etc.
But national polls had been around 3-5 points ahead, but now closer to 1-2.
Is your national vote estimate based on national polling- or is it a combination of that and looking at each state projections based on polling and then calculating what that means for a popular vote?
I don't really have a problem with Obama changing his policy, just so long as he doesn't do anything silly like claim that offshore drilling will actually lower oil prices.
Yeah...I'd like to see him play it as changing his mind and giving the public what they seem to want, and then when it doesn't bring the immediate benefits that were touted, he can look at the American public, shake his head and give a look that more or less says "I told you so."
Sometimes you have to let people make a mistake rather than tell them that what they want to do is a mistake.
Obama would consider off-shore drilling as part of comprehensive energy plan
Obama is the most liberal senator in the arena but is trying to convince american voters that he is a moderate...this is very clear!
"Conservative from Rome"
So let me see if I can follow your lack of logic. McCain changes his mind on offshore drilling for 1.1 million, and that is OK, but no one else can change there mind on drilling. Right...
What this site needs is an ignore filter so I can ignore Karl Rove surrogates :)
BTW "Pete Kent" learn to spell "non sequitur"
VermontDem said "Is your national vote estimate based on national polling- or is it a combination of that and looking at each state projections based on polling and then calculating what that means for a popular vote?"
As I understand it, 538 uses the national polling to modify the state numbers, but then uses the state numbers to construct the popular vote total.
Sometimes you have to let people make a mistake rather than tell them that what they want to do is a mistake.
A bit of hard-won wisdom that is learned, sooner or later, by all parents of adolescents.
My God Pete, attacking Obama AND slandering Cater in the same post.
You must be racking up those McCain points today!
To refresh your memory Pete, THERE WAS A REVOLUTION IN IRAN.
How the hell was Carter supposed to control that?
He did they best he could. He established the Department of Energy, invested in alternative fuels, set mileage standards, and most important of all, put forward a long term energy plan that would put us on the road to energy independence.
And guess what?
Reagan undid all the progress Carter made.
The man even had solar panels REMOVED from the White House. That fact boggles my mind.
I guarantee you Pete, the supply problem has not been fixed.
The amount of oil imported from OPEC nations is roughly equal to domestic oil production.
Obama the New Moses; Ron Paul is Aaron; T Boone Pickens as the Baptist
Fillastro:
Have you considered that Obama is not THE ONE?
While he may have awakened a movement, perhaps like Moses he cannot lead it to the Promised Land?
Look for Obama after he loses the election to join forces with Ron Paul. Now that guy has legs!
Paul is the Republican base problem personified.
He sucks up all the dissatisfied elements: the anti-trade and anti-immigration sentiment, the anti-war crowd, tax and budget hawks. He's just so weird.
Thank goodness Bob Barr is a joke.
The only thing Repbs have to fear is Ron Paul being the Ross Perot of our era (T Boone Pickens is just his John the Baptist!).
(And no Filastro, the line is not from O'Neil, but something much more pedantic and less allegorical)
Stephen--
I have predicted each of those relfection points accurately, that they may have been short-lived is another sort of error!
I am not quite prediciting an inflection point as anticipating it.
As far as the poster wondering why the national polls are not closer given Obama's lead in the state polls, I think a lot of it has to do with the state polls lagging in time.
nc moderate...first i am not a Karl Rove clone...i am only an italian guest that likes american politics...second you don't speak as a moderate...you seems me a leftist...so you can change your nick in nc leftist...
Nick:
I thought for a moment you solved my riddle . . .
NC Moderate:
Blame Bill Gates and his rotten spell checker!
@Conservative from Rome
I find it funny you keep shouting about how liberal Obama is when in fact, he would feel at home in any European center-right party, including the People of Freedom. Of course, he doesn't have the requisite amount of mafia connections to be considered a serious politician in Italy...
I watched the ad with the sound off, and I am not sure that juxtaposing Obama with images of Charleton Heston as Moses are really going to help McCain in the long run.
For me, watching the Obama campaign this week was like watching my team (the Phillies) last month. It was painful, it was ugly, and they lost their lead in the NL East.
But the fundamentals remain that they have the best team in the NL East (and that will bring the wrath of the Mets fans down upon my head), the season lasts until the end of September, and they now have a five game winning streak.
Analogies are suspect, but I see much to compare, since the fundamentals are that Obama is a stronger candidate, and the Democrats have a significant party ID advantage. They may be stumbling now, but it is a long campaign season.
If partisans on either side think the election will tip decisively in July, they are on some substance which has impaired their view of reality.
Nick:
Now you slander, Italians (they of the garlic noses)
Counsellor Orben:
The Phils have no pitching and have streaky hitting. Mets are going on all cylinders right now.
Pete..... No, I don't think Obama is The One... and I think McCain is making a big mistake by anointing him as such. I think Obama's more in the (allegorical) nature of John the Baptist... he's come to announce the dawning of a new day which has yet to arrive but is just over the horizon.
When it gets here, it will change politics forever.
Will it look a bit like Ron Paul? Well, I think it is coming from the libertarian tribe, so... yeah, maybe it will.
A bit.
Funny post @ 7:22 "Pete Kent". I had a good chuckle.
Let's summarize McCain's campaign strategy
1) Offshore drilling will solve all problems
2) Hope and change are bad things, and you should not vote for Obama as he is for hope and change
3) Victory in Iraq is not doing what Obama recommends, even if the IraqI government and the American people want it
4) Karl Rove is a great man, and all true Americans ignore Congressional subpoenas and the rule of law
5) Elections should be about insulting your opponents and not and boring issues like Healthcare and jobs
Oh and "Pete Kent" try using Openoffice.org instead of Microsoft Office. Its free :)
Pete,
Silvio Berlusconi's Wikipedia entry has an entire section entitled "Alleged links to the Mafia"
nick i cannot believe you really think what you said about mafia connections...you are very offensive...
Obama is too liberal like McCain.
There´re not conservative candidates in this electon.
it's all false...Silvio Berlusconi is from Milan ( in the north )...mafia is in Sicily! ( in the south )...
Conservative in Rome,
Your current Prime Minister has been involved in 11 criminal trials.
'Nuff said.
I think McCain is a moderate leaning conservative on social issues...this sounds good for me...
nick I am proud of my current prime minister...he is always declared innocent by tribunals...
Alright, I've recovered a bit. The cable news was especially negative towards Obama tonight.Its unhealthy I know. I get a little carried away with my language sometimes. But Obama is being thrown off course with the media narrative, Its hard to run a high minded campaign in todays media environment. They love a story. The important issues take second fiddle way too much.
On drilling, thank god Obama is seeing the light. Who knows if drilling will effect the price of oil, I doubt it but thats not the point. A compromise is whats needed and what Barack should be pushing. The Flip Flop charge won't work here because the people want drilling, and who cares anyway. Drill short term, renewable long term. If drilling gets taken off the table, its one less issue for the republicans. I think its their only issue. The American people want a compromise anyway.
Well done Barack. The moderates might win you over after all.
Italian people know very well the situation and elected Silvio Berlusconi prime minister only few months ago ( for third time ) with a landslide...
I once went to a public speaking seminar when I was told, "It's 60% how you look, 35% what you sound like, and 5% what you say."
Based on this advice, McCain should sack the author of that ad immediately!
Bonus fail for the imagery of putting the "Obama for America" crest in the White House.... :D
@Conservative in Rome,
That is false, in several cases, the statute of limitations expired so a ruling couldn't be made.
Also: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silvio_Berlusconi#Alleged_links_to_the_Mafia
Check it out.
nick i know very well all...i live in italy! wikipedia isn't reliable...and i don't understand the reason of these attacks...we are talking about american politics...
PeteKent-- riight... it's just obvious that nothing has changed the fundamentals of the race in the past month, which is what your posts always refer to. The race is really stable with minor statistical variation and short term blips of media events. Fact is only passionate supporters are following the race closely enough to have opinions now. The undecided and apathetic may shake up the race dramatically after the conventions and debates, we'll have to wait and see.
But-- I'll be on the lookout for your inflection point nonetheless. More to come...!
Arthur Miller is rolling in his grave ...
Sean - the MSM media bias towards Obama seems obvious because it's obvious, not because people are blinded by some few choice places. Those McCain stories are not credibly sourced, you can't present them like established facts that the media is suspiciously overlooking.
Bias means that he's perceived, rightly or wrongly, as more newsworthy. Our news coverage after 9/11 was biased in favor of covering 9/11 stories, because it's all anyone cared about. If there's a media bias, it reflects a public bias.
I think the R's got Obama this week on the race thing. It was way over the top but the media loves a good race fight. Obama has to bring in someone who actually knows something about communications. Gibbs may be a nice guy and all, but the Schmidt guy (Rove disciple) that McCain has has been trained by the political master of our era. He's good. Obama needs to hire one of the Clinton people and learn how to play cable news strategy.
When you have 24 hours of just news and competing for every viewer with the two other networks, every race charge, Brintey Spears, paris Hilton, Hate the troops, traitor accusation is great for ratings. Obama's shift on drilling could not get any press with the race, Britney and Messiah talk.
This race will be like the last two where the media narrative will tell the story. Barack has seeded this ground thus far and has to learn how to play this game. I have seen no evidence thus far he knows what he is doing. A little fake outrage, or baseless accusation can go a long way sometimes, just ask the Clinton's, thats their primo strategy and unfortunately it works. Yes we have to endure another campaign filled with nonsense, empty rhetoric and personal charges from the republicans. I really believed that would not work this time but, its working.
@Matt
You really have some strange fetish for Rovian politics.
It's borderline concern troll.
hijadelSol79 said...
Arthur Miller is rolling in his grave ...
LOL... caught that one, did you? :-)
The best humor in the thread so far:
"nick i cannot believe you really think what you said about mafia connections...you are very offensive..."
"nick I am proud of my current prime minister...he is always declared innocent by tribunals..."
I am just really glad that I am an American. CfR can keep his Italian justice, and economy, and politics.
I think a lot of people misunderstand the role of the media. They think that the media produces news to sell to viewers. This is exactly 100% wrong. The media produces viewers to sell to advertisers. The "news" is just an input to production. (As a side note, most news sources believe that their reputation even-handedness is important for maintaining their viewership, and thus their profitability. Note that I said "even-handedness" rather that "accuracy" or "insightfulness". The conspicuous exception is Fox News, which has found a different business model. They cultivate an audience by repeatedly telling them what they're predisposed to hear -- more akin to televangelists than news.)
Once you understand that the media is producing viewers to sell to advertisers, it becomes completely clear why they focus twice the attention (positive and negative) on Obama: he produces viewers. And who really cares if McCain has gaffed again? Is showing that going to produce more viewers to sell to advertisers?
Jijadelsol:
I knew it was wrong when I typed O'Neil!
The quote is from the NYTs editorial endorsing Carter against Reagan.
Using it in service of McCain may be an ill-omne indeed!
jonker how can you judge italian justice and economy and politics? i am very disappointed...
We need to go back to "Its the economy stupid"
It was a marvelous strategy. Clinton knew that the Republicans would be throwing all sorts of absurd crap at him. Just change the subject back to the one you know voters care about the most. The one that voters already agree with you on.
Why are you talking about arugula when the unemployment rate is going up?
Do you show Brittany because you are afraid to talk about foreclosures?
For those of you that think he should not take the high road and he should respond with similar low road character attacks, you miss the whole point. "Its the economy stupid" is not about the economy. It is a character attack. Its saying that the Republicans are only engaging in these stupid silly issues because they have something to hide. They are the ones acting out of weakness. They are the ones trying to change the subject.
It forces them into the position of somehow arguing that the arugula vs. iceberg lettuce debate is more important than real issues. They can either back off or risk being seen as seriously out of touch with what really matters to swing voters.
A couple points to emphasize.
1) "Its the economy stupid" is not a response to serious non-economic issues. You don't use it to try to change the subject off of Iraq or Israel/Palestine or any legitimate issue. That is weak and evasive. You use it only when the opposition is starting to try to use some minor issue to act as an absurd distraction.
2) The "stupid" part is more important than the "its the economy" part. When the media starts having a field day over ads that star Brittany and hippies, you don't just start talking about the unemployment rate as if the distractions don't exist. You make the direct point very clearly that you think that anybody that would rather talk about the appropriate type of cheese on a cheesesteak is a morally vacuous, sleazy person that doesn't belong anywhere within 50 miles of the very important serious government you intend to lead.
If Obama starts doing this, he'll be able to score some really big character points on McCain and McCain won't have any idea what hit him.
Yes Conservative from Rome. His crack about mafia connections was offensive. I'll see him, and raise him one.
Your nation is full of overdramatic greasers who will dive to the ground and roll in faux agony if someone breathes on them. You people can't perform basic functions like taking out the trash without calling in the army. Never mind trying complete more complex ones like holding a government together for more than 18 months.
Now go cry in your lasagna.
My sound card's busted, so I just watched the images...
If it weren't for the text overlay and goofy Ten Commandments clip, yeah, it would look very pro-Obama. Then again, I wonder what would stick with me if I were an undecided: the text of Obama's (misqouted) comments, or the images of Obama looking very much like our next president.
Current "Meme": Negative Politics. Obama started it.
Discuss.
Makes me want to agree with y'all about how negative politics don't work.
Obama looks and sounds off his game today.
African Americans heckled and protested him at his town hall, demanding to know why he was ignoring the needs of the Black Community. Sound familiar? Predictable, but y'all can't see for the forest for the trees.
MSNBC Hardball: Obama loses when the race card gets played.
I agree -- it makes even to non-prejudiced nervous, it is discordant, a distraction from governing.
We will test Obama’s bottom the day before the news cycle reverses.
I had thought that he would use his VP pick to stop the bleeding but it seems he has decided a flip flop on oil would be more arresting.
Indeed!
This will revive and solidify the flip flopper meme. And allowing the decline in the polls that was arrested and reversed by his foreign trip to resume. But now on top of the bad week he just had.
By Tuesday it will become apparent he will need another miracle and will pick Bayh.
Be very nervous if he picks Kaine. A compromise choice means he could not get Bayh and Obama realized he could not give it to Hillary or any other woman. Leaving him not much choice. Obama is selecting with care. He is a smart man and has a very short list.
(Mason you are way out of line. I am hoping you are an Obama supporter)
you are insulting me and my country only because i am not an european Obama cheerleader true? don't worry...i don't cry...i know very well you socialists...for the trash in naples we have to thank your leftist friends...when Berlusconi come back the trash disappeared in few days...
and believe me lasagna is very good!
"This will revive and solidify the flip flopper meme"
No that title is held by McCain. Or perhaps instead of flipflop we should say "sellout" ?
Discuss.
Why the anger at Matt? I think he's simply telling the truth as he sees it.
Obama has to fight back. he's getting swamped.
I'm insulting you because you're a snooty Euro who feels he's more qualified to remark on American politics than an American is to remark on European politics.
Get over yourself, already.
mason you can of course remark on italian politics...but you and your friends have talked about mafia and other similar things...i never insulted americans so you i cannot understand your point...
Oh yeah. Mafia control of trash haulers had nothing to do with that. Come on. That shit happens in Jersey sometimes. You can't tell me that the place all those wops come from doesn't have the same problem
Oh... and of course it disappeared when Big Sil came back. A few phone calls to his friends, and Badda-Bing, Badda-Boom. Know what I mean?
That's the other problem with you Italians.
Thin, fucking skin. You'd never hear a German whine about Nazi references.
Everything you want to know about conservative parties and politics in Italy is in S. Montanaro and S. Ruotolo eds, La vera storia d'Italia, 1995 (full report by the magistrates on the Mafia maxi-trial; many, many documents showing the tight links between conservative parties and the Mafia). If you can read Italian, it's a fascinating, meticulously documented report. Unfortunately never translated into English I think, but a lot of the key points are discussed in Peter Robb's Midnight in Sicily.
.
It's no accident that in an election a few years ago Berlusconi's party carried only Sicily. More recently, he has done better. But his party has done best in Lombardy, Venezia -- and Sicily which is key for him. For several of his party's candidates who have been convicted of Mafia ties, see www.economist.com/world/europe/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10854084 (Mar. 2008).
.
In Europe, Obama's views would put him in the center-right of the political spectrum.
mason Berlusconi is from the NORTH...in the NORTH MAFIA DOESN'T EXIST! you can believe or not but it's true!
It's all false...in 2006 center-right carried a lot of regions not only Sicily...nationally we lost only for 24.000 votes on 38.000.000...and in 2008 we won in a landslide...in the north and in the south...
All things being equal and fundamentals remaining the same, what McCain is doing is driving up Obama's negatives to drive down turnout and give "Conservatives" a reason to go vote. "Conservatives" only vote when afraid (as in 2004). They need to be afraid.
What Obama has to do is get down in the alley with boil face and drive his negatives up as well. Get his smart alecy "100 years in Iraq" gag on a loop and have him repeat it over and over or run the Hagee dumping ("that’s just crazy") out in Texas….things like that. Turn the evangelicals against him, little wedge issues.
The anger directed at Matt in the thread is misplaced. He's just giving the straight scoop as he sees it.
This is the same old same old from the GOP hacks. They don't care about anything, they are just a mob of money grubbers. This is EXACTLY what Lee Atwater did in 1988- one negaitive attack after another on Dukakis, although to their credit- there were some sort of facts- Willie Horton, the ACLU statement, the pledge, mixed in with falsehoods- Kitty Dukakis burned the flag, Dukakis was in favor of witchcraft, etc, etc…by the time Mike answered one false charge, they threw another at him.
If old hunchback sneaks in, I am sure the Rove gang will be very gracious and bring us all together…just like W. did…..
I know he's from the north, and I know that Mafia is generally a Southern thing.
That doesn't change that he is a NATIONAL figure, and one does not become a national figure in ANY country without contacts all over. As generously shown by pechmrle, many of his southern contacts are of, shall we say, questionable character.
I guess it is hard to find powerful contacts in the only country in western Europe with a Perception of Corruption index below below six. Don't worry though, you're still better than the vast majority of the developing world.
Not sure why people are posting that McCain is winning. Yes you could argue that it is very much tightening according to national polling- but McCain had lead or been tied in so few of the national polls in the last several months- and Obama has had a lead in 95+% of them.
Until that changes- or until Obama loses his polling lead in MI it's tough to argue McCain is winning. Plus you could argue that Obama is winning VA, OH, and FL right now.... not sure how you can point to any polling evidence that suggests McCain is winning.
If you say he's winning- perhaps try outlining which states he will win to get 270- and point to the polls that suggest that he will win the states you say he will.
pechmerle was right. Obama and Mac are center-right in Europe. But not in the United States.
And the two parties in USA are center-right. Leftist parties are Green party, Socialist Party, Communist Party.
Welcome, Conservative from Roma. At least one European does not worship the Obamessiah.
Good to see SurveyUSA finally back on the scene today -- In St. Louis area Obama is up 13 but McCain is crushing Obama in the rest of MO.
Obama has dropped 9 points in 5 days in the Gallup Daily Tracker. I expect McCain to edge ahead in that poll (or the Rasmussen poll)over the weekend.
mason what can i say? come on here in Rome i am sure you can see italians are good people...the place is wonderful and there insn't trash! i am officially inviting you!
PeteKent said "The Phils have no pitching and have streaky hitting. Mets are going on all cylinders right now."
Talk about having no pitching. If I were a Mets fan, I couldn't stand watching the Mets bullpen. The Mets have better starting pitching than the Phils, but that bullpen will kill them. Team ERAs at this time are 4.01 for the Phils, and 4.06 for the Mets, so it's a stretch to say the Phils have no pitching, and imply that the Mets do.
Your sports analysis sounds like you political analysis. "The Phils are collapsing, it's an inflection point. Look for the Mets to take the NL East lead by the end of the weekend. Discuss."
Just to be clear CfR - I don't have a problem with your conservatism. That's your loss. What I've got a problem with, and what I'm calling you out on, is your attitude. You're here posting on an American forum about American politics, but when you are caught in a slight lie/misremembering about a well-documented part of Italian politcs, you bust out the, "You Americans would never understand"-card. That's such hypocritical hubristic ego, and I have no qualms about cutting your Azzuri-lovin' ass down to size.
mrinsight22 thank you...it's true in europe obama is very popular but essentially because we consider him a good person ( and i think so )...but i am a conservative...and i am for all my life a GOP supporter...
Conservative from Rome, I love Italy and Italians. There are many good people.
.
The politics -- not so good. And the trash in Naples -- still piled all over. AP July 18, 2008: "Italian Premier Silvio Berlusconi claimed Friday that the garbage crisis plaguing Naples [since December] has been resolved, even though tons of trash remain uncollected."
Buoni Auguri
How many religious people are on this board? Do you guys know anybody that is super religious? I will admit that I am not super religious myself so I don't know how all this is playing out but...
Does anybody feel that all of the "the one" and "messiah" stuff that McCain is putting out there is blasphemous? He put out an ad today that seemed to link Obama with Moses (Yesterday, he was Brittany Spears...Today he is Moses...I have no idea who the Repubs will say he is tomorrow)
For years now, People have been comparing people they don't like with Hitler.I guess that is supposed to scare Jewish people but more typically it just causes them to get angry at the person making the comparison.
Obama doesn't think he's god. He has never said anything that is more arrogant than the typical politician. Sure, he's confident and sure he sometimes promises more than he can deliver, but that doesn't mean he thinks he's god. Saying that he thinks he is sure seems to be coming really close to a third rail. I think I would find it really offensive if I was a religious person.
McCain already has problems with the religious community. I know that most of them are Repubs and likely to ultimately cut him a break, but I can't help but wonder what happens if some high profile conservative preacher came out and said "He never compared himself to Moses. I'm offended that you would. This shows a great deal of blasphemy and I want you to stop"
And I'm still mad about that bullshit "Gaining an advantage from being in an offside position," decision from two years ago.
No touch. No movement, so no distraction. Gah....
mason i like american politics...is this a sin??? i posted on your blog ok...but i respected rules...i said you can remark about italian politics of course...but i want to say that your fonts aren't neutral...further consider my clear difficult with english language...
Mason,
Are you really a Democrat? It seems to me like you might be a troll. You come on here and make offensive anti-Italian slurs while talking about how great you think Obama is.
Maybe I should go on a conservative website and pretend to be a KKK supporter that really loves McCain.
I suspect that you are a Republican -- Tad Furtado are you back??
Whatever you are, can you please keep your problems with Italians to yourself? It has no place on this board.
Your English is fine. Don't let that worry you. Better than most Americans on the internet, fo' shizzle.
mason no no my english is so bad! true eheheh...i would visit USA one day or later...
Chuck Todd said tonight that Virginia just won't be blue this year unless Obama puts Kaine (Toll Road Timmy) on the ticket, thanks to McCain's big lead among veterans.
I just watched "The One" ad with no sound and there is no doubt that this is positive imagery for Obama.
The problem however is that the media is not helping him, even though people think they are.
That being said, there is no doubt that the fundamental environment cannot be overcome by negative campaigning. It will come down to the debates and what happens in September and October.
Jeffery-
And I suspect that you have a reading difficulty. I explained why I called him out like I did. He's being a Hypocritical Eurosnob. I expect liberal Euros to say we can't understand their politics while telling us everything they think about us, but I hardly expect that from a conservative Euro. The former I laugh off, but the latter I find ridiculous.
Plus, I know he's not going to say, "At least we have universal health care."
Jeffrey, most members of KKK were democrats.
no mason i repeat you have all the right to make your remarks on italian politics...but of course i have the right to reply...
CfR-
And we'd be glad to have you. Really glad. Have you seen the exchange rate recently? I'd recommend not spending too much time in the cities unless you really want to shop-til-you drop. Don't get me wrong, there's alot to see and do in them, but you must see some of the natural wonder, too. In my humble opinon, you can't really understand the nation without seeing the land they live in.
Wait a sec.... You're GMT+1, right, or is it GMT+2? Isn't it a bit late there?
ahhhhh but we really have universal health care!! :)))
now in italy it's 4.20 a.m. change rate is about 1.58...good for us...
Dario- (Sorry... can't get the accent)
You're right, of course. But Jeffery is correct to imply that most current KKKers would be GOPers. Most of "those" Democrats left the party because of Nixon's Southern Strategy.
Counsellor Orben: mets knotted in Houston 3-3. Phils losing to Cards 3-5. Mets Bullpen improving; delgado finally hitting.
Still developing . . .
this is another thing i don't understand about american politics...if i am a democrat how can i vote for McCain? and if i am a republican how can i vote for Obama?? i think you americans pay a lot of attention to the issues...in italy is very different...i don't say is better...different is the right word...
Now even the Democrats here you don;t like are crypto-Rebubs!
Confifential Leak from Rachel Maddow: Obama told her that he was actually for drilling before he voted for it.
Should be fun!
CfR
Shoot... Back when I lived in Spain in 2000, it was 180-220 ptas. to a dollar and, as now, 166.386 ptas. to a euro. That was a good time.
I also had to explain the 2000 election and the Electoral College to somewhat confused Spaniards. That was not fun. Though they did get a kick out of Bill Clinton's remark on the whole mess.
mason i remember very well 2000 election...i knew your rules about the electoral college...so i follewed election results state by state on cnn website until 7.00 am ( here in italy )...
"Confifential Leak from Rachel Maddow: Obama told her that he was actually for drilling before he voted for it."
Got a link? Right....
I heard MCain was against drilling till he sold out. I am curious, "Pete Kent", is selling out on a position for 1.1 million dollars a presidential quality?
Keeping in mind that Fox News has LEGALLY DEFENDED its right to present FALSE AND FABRICATED INFORMATION as 'news', I think PeteKent and our Roman Conservative would do well to listen to more than just one channel for their information.
What I'm seeing here is more groundwork laying in terms of images and messages.
PeteKent can't deny that Obama is iconic; that means that in the debates, Obama has a far greater number of beneficial images to draw on. Instead of 'Foreign policy experience', the issue can become 'Eagerness of Foreign leaders to work with Obama'. Instead of 'Flipflopping on drilling', it's 'Willing to cross party lines and compromise in order to benefit america and secure its energy future'.
McCain can't think fast enough on his feet to overwhelm "The ONE"'s marketability and iconic image, so he'll struggle through all the debates to overcome memes. The GOP's ads are even helping to spread the Memes for Obama. Hilton and Spears will stay in people's minds, certainly. That was a good attack, but the ends are uncertain; It's hard to apply the behaviors of those two girls to Obama's media presence. Especially as months drag on. The lack of a strong connecting context hurts the long-term effectiveness.
Now, consider the spending in Florida. We know that FL is vital to McCain's success, and no doubt the GOP knows that, too. It's suicidal to leave Florida unattended, So GOP/527 resources will be firehosed at a state that Obama doesn't need to win. Regardless of what ethnic voting bloc theory you ascribe to, letting the opposition go unchecked will hurt.
Like in the primary, the Obama team is minmaxing. McCain's team would prefer to save money in Florida.
And look where else the money is being spent. GA (adjacent to FL, overlapping Media market) IN,OH (again, overlapping media markets), NC (adjacent to VA), seeing a pattern?
The advertising in states that're shown in 538 as very red, but adjacent to tipping point states and some minor funds going into the high ROI states.
If you remember that Hillary Clinton, who started with 100 or so superdelegates in her corner, didn't become the presumptive nominee, you can give the Obama team benefit of the doubt that they are waging war in the little battles, putting money where McCain isn't, using the media markets to push into other states without pushing on them overtly. Get the ads started, force responses that waste the GOP and 527's resources in states Obama can't really win anyway.
So July wasn't a stellar climb, but I am fairly confident Obama will maintain his lead through August.
I could be wrong, but naturally, I hope I'm not.
"Would you be sure this was an anti-Obama ad?"
When I first watched that ad, I did feel as though it was a rather odd take on the thing.
Part of me, watching it, felt as though it was very pro-Obama. Though, I think, in some senses, it's kind of like what they say about car commercials. They're not designed to change your opinion, just to make you feel good about the choice you already make. Pro-obama voters are likely to view most of that ad as a good thing. Anti-obama voters are likely to view much of it as a bad thing.
Yes Obama is winning, but he has lost the momentum. Go watch the young Turks @ youngturks.com and you'll hear exactley why. Obama is on the defensive. Its like a hockey game where your up 4-3, but you were up 4-0 and the other team has all the momentum.
Obama has not laid out a single attack in 6 weeks. McCain has been leveling them daily since Shmidt took over in early July. Obama has got to gear up the attacks and get ready for a fight. Forget the high minded crap, McCain's willing to go so far in the gutter you won't recognize him any more. You gotta be willing to play the game. Democrats are geared up for a fight. Lets go. Hit that wrinkly old bastard right in the jaw and knock him on his ass.
You guys are from the South Side of Chicago, you've seen it all. Come on its time to get dirty. Sick Bill on his ass already. Show the McCain campaign what the meaning of "IS" is. If I have to hear another high falut'n attack like "We all know the McCain campaign don't have any solutions."
Say,
"John McCain and George Bush are willing to pay Billions of dollars to bail out Bear Stearns and not a dime for middle class folks in Ohio or Michigan. He won't fight for you, he doesn't give a damn about you and his policies prove it. He believes the recession is in your head. His chief economic adviser believes you are a bunch of whiners. So your losing your house, stop whining. Your losing your job, stop whining. As long as Exxon Mobile is fine America will be too. John McCain would rather give a tax cut to Exxon Mobile than you."
Thats an attack. Sure its over the top, but the MSM will eat it up. After they cover it for a few days, put out an ad saying the same thing. My campaign would be John McCain would rather give a tax cut to Exxon Mobile than you. That would be my slogan, my entire campaign.
What do you guys think?
VA Cons said: "Chuck Todd said tonight that Virginia just won't be blue this year unless Obama puts Kaine (Toll Road Timmy) on the ticket, thanks to McCain's big lead among veterans".
That´s right?. The pools don´t say this but.....
SUSA has McC at +5 in MO (49-44).
Their previous poll had McC at +7.
this election will show the distinction between what people say is important to them versus what they FEEL.
People SAY the economy is scaring them but the truth just might be that especially with prodding the unconscious fear center in Joe Average American's brain, that the FEAR of Obama is going to override their fear of 4 more years of Bush.
People who spend all their time on political blogs won't decide the election. It'll be all those folks who are watching Paradise Hotel 2, American Gladiator 2 whose last minute, relatively ill-informed decision at the polling place is gonna decide.
CFR- "this is another thing i don't understand about american politics...if i am a democrat how can i vote for McCain? and if i am a republican how can i vote for Obama??"
The simple answer is that the two main parties in the US used to have a very broad tent. You used to have so-called Rockafeller Republicans who held generally liberal views. They favored the New Deal, Civil rights, and were fiercely internationalist and anti-communist. On the other wing, you had the Southern Democrats to whom Dario was referring. The "Solid South" Dems were opposed to Civil Rights. Ultimately, these people ended up leaving the Democratic party.
"From now on, the Republicans are never going to get more than 10 to 20 percent of the Negro vote and they don't need any more than that... but Republicans would be shortsighted if they weakened enforcement of the Voting Rights Act. The more Negroes who register as Democrats in the South, the sooner the Negrophobe whites will quit the Democrats and become Republicans. That's where the votes are. Without that prodding from the blacks, the whites will backslide into their old comfortable arrangement with the local Democrats." -Kevin Phillips. GOP Strategist. NYT, 1970
Now, most of these distinctions are gone, but some voters have never changed their voter registration. My grandmother, for example, was a registered Republican until the day she died last year, but she hadn't voted for a Republican for state or national office since 1980.
yes i know south republicans and north republicans are very different and so democrats...i noted strange things...for example in 2004 exit polls dems were 50% in west virginia and they lose the state 56-43 this is a weird thing for an european!
Wow I just looked at the specifics and McC gets 10% of blacks in MO.
Also their "affiliation sampling" is
37% cons (86-10),
35% mod (32-69) and
12% lib (11-85%)
Now it's startling that only 12% of self-ID'd MO call themselves liberal.
And 10% of those say they will vote for McCain? pumas?
I bet Wash U students are underrepresented.
Yeah. There were some counties in the Florida Panhandle (the east west bit, not the peninsula) that exhibited much the same thing. That caused some folks to cry "fraud", but in reality, it was just a bunch of people solid southers.
Oh... and if you visit in the summer, go to a baseball game. Don't worry that you don't have a clue what's going on. Some one nearby will have pity for you and explain what's happening. It's the only sport in the world where you can fail seven times out of ten in your career and be considered among the best to play the game.
"Yes Obama is winning, but he has lost the momentum."
I understand your frustration matt, but McCain will lose momentum once people realize he has only negativity and offshore drilling to offer. And remember
voters are more concerned about the unregulated speculation that the GOP advocates that has allowed gas prices to get so high.
Plus, Obmama will hit back, but not in the slimy "Low Road" approach of McCain/Rove.
baseball looks good...for me better than football or hockey...now you can hate me! :)
Drowzee--Your perspective on he debates is laughable. Obama is a poor debater and is much less practiced than McCain. Who forces himself to think on his feet everyday.
Everyone will think that Obama will win the debates and the expectations game will help do him in. If McCain manages to get through them without yawning or looking at his watch he wins.
Also, bear in mind we have seen no polls for August yet. It may be premature to talk about Obama "maintaining" his lead in August.
It is entirely likely that Obama will have no lead in August to maintain as early as 9:30 AM tomorrow and may in fact be trailing by the end of the day.
If he cannot finesse his switch on drilling (remember, the "gimmick") he may find himself staring at McCain's back right through election day.
Could this be the inflection point I have been waiting for? (Calling Stephen and Ajeebeecroft!)
Hockey? Please, sir. I'm from an ice-free section of the country.
And I presume you're talking about American Football? I like the game, but it's better on TV. There's so much going on on every play that you need instant replay to show you exactly how that running managed to run for a forty-yard pick-up. Hint: A few good blocks.
yes...i am talking about american football...for me is so boring!! mason where are you from? for sure not from Great lakes states! :)
"The reason the liberal blogosphere has little influence is that you are all talking to yourselves. Instead of an echo chamber, you have a black hole.
Whatever you think of Hannity, Rush, O'reilly and the rest, people watch and listen. The liberal blogosphere is where talk radio was 20 years ago."
Yup, Hannity, Rush et al. are geniuses. We have much to learn from these masters.
The President they have slavishly supported is at around, what, 21% approval?... and has been loathed by the American public for the last several years. And the political party they serve so dutifully ADMITS that its own chances are horrible across the board in 2008.
Geniuses, I say! Brilliant!!
I have a weird semi paranoid theory about "the one" ad. Notice how long it is? The McCain name and logo doesn't come in til the very end.
I think you're exactly right, people will watch and think it's an Obama ad. And I think that may have been McCain's INTENT. They want a backlash. They want people to watch and say "Whoa! Barack Obama has an ad portraying himself as the Messiah!"
If that's what they're after, they're pretty savvy.
Pete-
I don't think you really understand what an inflection point is. It's not the point where a function changes signs. It's the point at which the second derivitaive changes signs. Stated alternately, it is the point at which the curve changes from downward to upward or vice versa. Over the last couple of days the curve of the the function of difference (O-M) vs time has favored McCain. At any inflection point now (O-M) would stop falling as fast, and possibly start rising. You don't want an inflection point now. The inflection point you seek actually happened on the day Obama took a nine-point lead a day after having an eight-point lead.
Petekent, I'm saying that McCain is establishing Obama as a brand in ways that cause short term damage but longer term benefits by using the GOP's resources to put out flattering images of Obama.
I'm also saying that you're assuming we're all idiots and it's by some amazing stroke of luck that Obama's in the race at all, and that it's your kind of thinking that will cause the GOP problems.
For example:
McCain has experience on the senate floor. I'll give you that.
So, how has Obama managed to be such a media darling if he can't perform public speaking? How did he handle the hecklers, or was that also staged to bring more racial charge into the mix?
At the very least, you are painting him as someone who is amazing at reading off a script and electrifying WORLDWIDE audiences. In a debate (especially in recent american politics), someone with a script and style will absolutely blow away McCain visually, which is what this is all about.
Please resolve the images you seem to hold of Obama as an ill-spoken doofus with Obama the rock star and iconic public figure, as recognized by the "Celeb" ad.
Explain how you can have both these memes going at once.
"Also, bear in mind we have seen no polls for August yet"
Is that because we are only 23 hours and 26 minutes into August as of this post?
Has McCain peaked since he has nothing to offer but negativity?
Also, is it Presidential to sellout for 1.1 million dollars?
CfR-
Central Valley of California, originally. They called it a Mediterranean climate, but I called it an irrigated semi-arid desert. I now live in Northern Virginia a quarter mile from the Beltway. Please forgive me, but politics around here isn't a hobby, it's a bloodsport and a way of life.
Plus it's August, and we're overrun with tourists who don't know where their going. I'm sure you can understand
central valley...near Sacramento? i understand you very well...here in italy politics is a bloodsport too...what do you think? i have to fight against socialists and communists too! liberals are a joke for me! eheheh
I can't resist a little digression on Italian politics...
A little-known fact is that, out of 315 senators total, 6 are designated for Italian citizens resident abroad. Roughly speaking, it worked out that one of these senators represented Italians in North America. As it happens, there are roughly comparable numbers of Italian citizens resident in the US and in Canada -- obviously there are more Italians in the US overall, but many are descended from pre-WWII immigrants and one way or another aren't Italian citizens, while Italian-Canadians mostly arrived after the war and were much more likely to vote in an Italian election.
Anyhow, a majority of Italians voting in the US voted for Berlusconi's coalition, but the left coalition led by just enough in Canada to award North America's senator to the left... which in turn meant that the Italian senate went 158-157 for the left, rather than the other way 'round.
Didn't matter for long, obviously, since there was another election this year, but while it lasted it could be said that the left controlled the Italian senate thanks to the Canadian vote!
Well... A bit south of there, actually. Visalia. About 3.5 hours by car south of Sac-Town and 45 minutes south of Fresno.
Heck... Come to think of it, it was a bloodsport around there, too. I remember being mocked by my 7th grade social studies teacher because I was pro-choice! I told her to go fuck herself and got sent to the principal's office, but it was worth it. :-P
I'm not sure why so many people bring up that Dems will do better when students come back. I agree that in college towns Obama will do much much better than McCain- but keep in mind that many students aren't registered to vote at all- or are registered to vote in their home state. I'm not sure why polls will necessarily misrepresent this- since the majority of college students voting in the state of their school live in that state and could be polled. Also- MO has 5.8 million people- a couple of thousand of incoming students at Wash U and others isn't going to throw off polling so dramatically you can expect a bump.
But I agree yiannis 37-13 Con-Lib seems extreme (not sure what registration is, or what past polls have said it is/was). Also 10% AA support wouldn't be out of the question, but it does seem questionable.
Looking at the MO chart at 538 the past SUSA polls are bizzare- 2 polls on 5/17 one +2 Obama one +3 McCain with a much bigger sample- why were there 2 polls by the same company on the same day- andwhy so different in sample size and results?The last SUSA poll in MO on 6/21 was+7 McCain. Ras went +6 McCain on 5/6 to +1 Obama 6/3 to +5 McCain on 7/7- so neither agency shows anytrue trentd- and the two agencies give a very different trend. Plus PP, R2000 and Ras had poll 7/3 7/7 and 7/9 with Obama +5, McCain +3 and McCain +5. There seems to be no consistency at all in MO polling.
Does anyone know if MO is a particularly tough state to poll? It's almost as crazy with its inconsistencies as FL which I know is famously tough to poll.
It's really hard to get a good read on MO, although it looks like the R2000 +5 Obama is likely an outlier. But that means MO has shifted Republican somewhat significantly from May/June to now. It seems to be on a very different trajectory than other swing states.
Is there any way to track how much airtime these recent McCain ads have actually had in paid TV spots? Most people I know pay little attention to TV ads, simply leaving them on in the background while waiting for a show to return. This, especially when considering that study, would make the images seem like a major mistake by McCain's campaign.
However, I would not be surprised if the McCain camp actually put very little money into broadcasting the ad. Instead, they went with a strategy that if they created a unique and provocative ad, the media (TV news, blogs, etc) would talk about the ad. The goal might really be to get pundits and bloggers talking about Obama as possibly arrogant or a fantasy.
In essence, maybe the McCain camp's real goal is to try and control the conversation, and with ads like these that draw attention, he just might succeed.
ajbeecroft it's true center-right lost north america senator because canada voting strong on the left...after 2008 elections house and senate have both solid conservative majority...
Yes, well cfr... sadly, we have a Conservative government in Canada, too, although a weak minority government with 127 seats out of 308.
Someday, Canadians will return to the Liberals, and I hope that we can help Italy move to its left, too. I'm sure you disagree!
in italy abortion is legal only until third month of pregnancy...after third month you can abort only in the case of danger for the mother...
ajbeecrof italy is too conservative ehheheh...only few regions are on the left...for example Emilia Romagna and Toscana ( Bologna and Firenze )...
In Canada, we have no law regulating abortion.
ajbeecroft...so abortion is legal or illegal?
We have 51 different sets of laws regulating or choosing not to regulate abortion. And Guns. And Gays. And Trans-fats.
Federalism is awesome!!
i think regulating abortion in america by law is very difficult because wade vs roe...
I think the remembering the images only effect is a major contributor to why the public thinks the coverage of Obama is better. Studies may show there were more negative comments about Obama, but there's no question his imagery on the news has been better, and so the public remembers it.
In major change, Obama says he'll support offshore drilling
By David Lightman | McClatchy Newspapers
WASHINGTON — Barack Obama Friday dropped his opposition to offshore oil drilling, saying he could go along with the idea if it was part of a broader energy package.
Obama made his comments in St. Petersburg during an interview with the Palm Beach Post. "My interest is in making sure we've got the kind of comprehensive energy policy that can bring down gas prices," he said.
[trying to hold back]
[honest I really trying to contain myself]
[omg I'm trying to hold my mouth shut]
[screw it]
HA!! HA!! HA!! HA!! HA!!
LOL!!LOL!!LOL!!LOL!!
Oh God! This is too funny!!
Call me crazy, but running ads on the premise that your opponent is "too popular" seems like a loser before it begins. If Mccain was anywhere near a concept of close in this race, he wouldn't be running these ads at all and would wait for the debates before attacking Obama on anything. Running this strategy now smells like Stonewall's troops out of ammo at 2nd Bull Run and throwing whatever they could find at the Yankees.
It might be funnier for you had McCain not also flipped his position on drilling and said that the benefit would be only psychological.
But I agree- as a liberal I am very upset that he has given in to this political gimmick. It is nothing more than a gimmick- and it won't help for a decade when it will tops help a nickel a gallon.
What it amounts to, on offshore drilling, is that both candidates are now shamelessly pandering by pretending to advocate for a policy that they know will accomplish nothing. We're left with the fact that Obama's much more interested in the more realistic aspects of energy policy, like increased fuel efficiency and alternative energy sources.
Once again, an issue that could conceivably have worked to the advantage of the Republicans has been taken off the table.
Don't worry VermontDem. He probably still knows it's a gimmick. I doubt rapidly expanding drilling is a major part of the "comprehensive energy plan".
CfR- Roe v. Wade simply held that it could not be made a crime to assist in an abortion. More recent decisions have held that certain restrictions are kosher. Various states have varying restrictions.
"Barack Obama Friday dropped his opposition to offshore oil drilling, saying he could go along with the idea if it was part of a broader energy package."
Dariencrow,
I have to laugh at you as your candidate sold himself for campaign contributions.
Shouldn't you be advocating bombing somebody as that is your solutions to problems.
Again, I have to keep laughing at you.
Sure the blogosphere needs to change their tactics but this is the key: THEY DON'T KNOW HOW. The Blogosphere is filled with fact-based, reasoning highly analytical people. They don't know HOW to use an approach that isn't that.
And so they fail.
I think Obama does know better than they do in that respect.
To be fair to Obama, he doesn't seem to be saying (judging by the article someone linked above) that drilling is actually a good thing; He's just saying that if it's what it takes to get energy-related legislation passed, that's a price worth paying. That's completely consistent with what he's said so far - that energy independance is a top priority, that drilling won't help, and that he believes in working constructively with people who disagree with him to get things done.
(Obviously how it'll play out politically is a completely different question, though...)
THE OBAMA STRATEGY:
(1)Look presidential in scripted speeches as you read off the prompters in glorious stagecraft
(2)Keep your message just vague enough to allow wiggling and flipflopping
(3)Talk big and loud, challenge McCain but avoid face to face time and in townhalls where he'd own you
(4)Dismiss all criticism and hard questions as "Old Politics"
(5)Treat your supporters like concert fans
(6)Overstep your position as senator
(7)Claim credit for things you have never done
(8)If necessary, use the race card.
JG1232 said...
You are exactly right; this ad was all about generating media attention, not being watched.
.
I took the suggestion (far above here) to watch it with the sound off. And that way, the Obama images are indeed strong and positive. But the damage is being done among people who will Never watch the ad, but who are hearing about it on cable news 24-7. And there it generates a considerable negative to Obama, as 'too entitled.' The msm (again) does McCain's work for him. This the Rovian / Schmidt m.o. I think that (unfortunately) it does work.
Is this John McCain anti-Obama "The One" add for real? "Barrack Obama, he may be The One. But is he ready to lead?"
Doesn't that basically translate to "I'm the wrong guy for this job, but damnit I'm older. Let me do it first, you bastards."
It's so sad. we're going to go through another general election with all this nonsense. In Canada they don't have 24 hour news networks so this stuff doesn't work. In England your not allowed to place political ads on TV. We could learn a thing or two from them.
You know the funny thing is our country was built on capitalism. Starting business was encouraged, making money was encouraged. And thats a good thing. But that very need to make money at any cost is now one of our major problems.
The cable news networks were once based on giving people the news. Unfortunately they realized the public isn't that into news so the networks decided to add in some occasional political fodder and celebrity gossip. Once this crack happened, the entire premise changed from news to ratings, and then to money. Now we're lucky to get any real news mixed in between the "Crossfire" type segments and the Paris Hilton sex tapes.
I don't really know if drilling will help the price of oil or not. Thats a shocking statement. I watch 6-8 hours of the cable news per day (My occupation affords me this privilege while I work) and I know so little about this fundamental problem to our country.
I would enjoy actually hearing a real debate about how to lower gas prices and relieve our dependence on foreign oil without the campaign spin from both sides. Two experts from each side debating instead of political operatives.
John Stewart believes a network focused on actual news would do quit well. If it was done properly I tend to agree. Intelligent discourse would be nice for a change. And our country would work better too.
I have an honest question for our conservative friends. Is the oil drilling really a position you guys want or is it political spin? Do you guys believe it will actually help our gas price, if so, how long would it take?
I believe Obama is right to try and get a compromise on drilling whether its good politically or not. I don't know if drilling will relieve gas prices, in fact I don't. But I could be wrong so let them have their drilling as long as the longer term focus is on renewable and other alternatives.
As someone not as interested in ideology as getting something done, does anyone else believe a compromise is the best thing for the country regardless of political fallout? Do conservatives believe renewable is the best course for the future?
Nate, why is it that I have to go through a complete password assignment every time I post?
This is ludicrous.
@dariencrow,
You forget McCain's strategy:
1) Change issues as big donors demand
2) Use Karl Rove tactics of race and then deny it. Ask Harold Frod Jr.
3) Question patriotism of opponent and then lie about it
4) Hire armies of trolls to spam discussion boards with lies and create whisper campaign of hate(per Karl Rove)
5) Take credit for veteran related bills, such as Webb's GI bill, even though McCain himself opposed it
Matt J.H.: I wish you were right, that a real news channel would attract viewers. All the evidence is to the contrary though. C-Span does excellent real news. PBS has excellent real, substantive shows like Front Line, and Bill Moyer Journal. But they draw minuscule viewership: they require too much focus, too much concentration. To hold attention, serious news and discussion has to come with great, cleverly chosen visuals and graphics. That costs way more than these niche programmers can afford.
.
And so the dumbing down of America continues. And that's just fine with the Roves and the Schmidt's of this world, as well as the big corp media empires that likes them ideologically.
.
The internet, it is sometimes said, will change all that. Maybe. Obama's fund raising success is a nice sign of that: screw corporate PAC's, And screw public finance. We can find the money among the regular people. That is huge, because come the fall they have a shot at drowning out Schimdt & crew with sheer weight of numbers of ads.
.
My take is Schmidt undersands that very well, and is attempting 'media jujitsu,' trying to get the attention for his guy without spending tons of money. With the celebrities ad, I didn't think it worked. With 'The One,' it's still early but my sense is that one has attention-getting traction. 'The One' is not a brilliantly crafted ad; too many strong images of Obama (no Dukakis in a tank helmet there); and the Charlton Heston bit went by too fast to register the witty intent with many people. But it has bite in the subtext of 'uppity N*** is way too full of himself.'
Count me as one of the people that is happy about the drilling switch. On a policy basis, I actually support it and think its the right thing to do. I could go into a long post on the reasons but this is a strategy blog not an energy blog.
On a political basis, this was about the only real issue that McCain had the public's support on. McCain had one issue and a bunch of Brittany and Moses tapes. Now he has no issues.
I know that the Republicans are really looking forward to playing this for the flipflopper angle. You can try but I think that is really stupid. Do I need to remind you McCain himself flipflopped on this issue about a month ago? When it works, the flipflopping charge is effective because it challenges the person's character. You know what is an even bigger challenge to character: Hypocrisy. Being so blatant as to attack on a flipflop on the very same issue that you flipflopped on is extraordinarily hypocritical. They will be called on it.
We haven't heard the last of this issue. I expect a lot more talk about it. But by November, the American public is very likely to regard this issue as a tie. They both opposed drilling. They both flipflopped and now they both support it.
A tie is good for the Democrats, because drilling was the only economic issue Republicans could effectively attack Obama on.
I have a problem with McCain saying he's a stalwart supporter of the troops. He opposed thr GI Bill, and has a dismal rating from the people who keep track of this stuff. Much worse than Obama's record.
I'm in no way saying McCain doesn't support the troops I'm saying he doesn't vote to give them added or improved benefits.
Secondly, McCain says he has a strong civil rights record which is completely false. On most civil rights legislation McCain has been opposed. If I'm not mistaken he opposes the bill allowing women to sue employers for equal pay, and he did not support the Martin Luther King holiday in the 80's. I'm not up to date on all McCain's voting record but he should not be allowed to lie about this stuff. The media should at the very least keep the candidates voting records honest.
I find McCain says he's strong in a lot of areas where he is not and he's never challenged on it. Like the balancing the budget by the end of his first term. I might consider voting for the guy if he put a real proposal forward. (Big deficit hawk) He says he'd cut spending, and when questioned on what spending he says earmarks. Thats 30 billion of the 500 we need.
Now Obama in fairness isn't much better about balancing the budget. Obama wants to pay as you go but he's more interested in spending the extra tax revenue he's gonna get than using it to pay down the deficit. I guess its not a real priority for either of them.
Matt J.H.: You are started out right on McCain and support for the troops, but didn't get to the finish line on the analysis. The fact is that McCain is pro-military, but -- when it conflicts with that -- anti-troops. This is how his opposition to the updated G.I. Bill came about. The military told him, please, we don't want this bill because giving guys the G.I. Bill after only three years cuts down on re-enlistments -- and we need those re-uppers. McCain has done this on a number of military/defense issues. Calling him on it is tricky, though, because the strong-defense vote has usually been much bigger than any actual sympathy for real troops.
Okay well you miss the point of the Jay Rosen piece on the Stahl story: that she and other journalists totally missed the point about Reagan by buying into the images-only schtick: his rhetoric really resonated.
But nevertheless you're right about the visuals in this ad: very pro-Obama. And the simple fact that McCain is spending all these dollars showing Obama on TV could be a Very Good Thing.
But the real message is not for you. Check this out"
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/8/1/192258/9999/429/560973
It's about The Rapture. The Left Behind Series. Obama as the antichrist.
These guys are good. They didn't need to discuss among themselves the value of showing Obama--handsome, charming, powerful, black--up against sexy young white girls with questionable morals. A raised eyebrow, a wink, not even a nod needed.
Steve, I read the Daily Kos comment and posts. You can read "The One" ad that way, but I don't for a minute believe the ad writers had that in mind. They were out to cast Obama as overly full of himself and patronizing you voters by suggesting his electionn would make absolutely everything better. The real rapture people wouldn't be energized to go out and vote against Obama. They Want the Anti-Christ to appear, take over -- and then the End Times are really here and they all get magically whisked off to heaven. That isn't a get out the vote campaign; that is a recipe for hyper-fundies to stay at home thinking that when the Obama-wins election returns come in (remember the Anti-Christ is Supposed to apparently triumph) the trip to heaven is about to begin.
.
You give the Schmidt team more credit than they deserve (which is still quite a bit) to think they thought of all the levels we can tease out of this ad.
petekent,
Well, the Phils and Mets both lost (that Mets bullpen again).
The Phils could claim a moral victory for losing by less <grin>.
Steve and perchmerle,
I think Steve wins this argument.
The GOP has been dogwhistling Christianist sectarians for years now. Dubya's speeches and statements are full of such things, from references to "wonder-working power" in a State of the Union Address to the famous mention of Dred Scott in the 2004 presidential debate.
In short there's nothing particularly new or clever about GOP candidates' sending coded signals to the fringes of the Christian right. One doesn't have to give the Schmidt team much credit at all to see that this is precisely the sort of message they'd craft.
The notion that Premillenialists will welcome the Antichrist because his arrival will help bring about the endtimes makes the political application of "prophecy" more instrumentally rational than it actually is. Among the many internet "Obama is the Antichrist" memes, do any of them call for "Christians" to stay home so that he can win election?
East remains static; Ras Tracker says Mets +2!
I am seeing Photobucket "Bandwidth Exceeded" images in this post.
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合法酒店經紀,
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酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
菲
梵,
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