Cue commercial. Lebron James chilling out with Yao Ming and drinking Coca-Cola with some panda bears. Michael Phelps hawking Visa and AT&T Wireless. And then ... a political attack ad?
McCain's $6 million Olympic ad buy is getting lots of ratings points here in Chicago. I've also heard from a reader that it's been in widespread circulation in Utah. If the ads are running in Utah and running in Chicago, that means they're running everywhere, and so far the buy has been exclusively limited to the negative ad that I linked above.
This is certainly an unorthodox decision. I'd also venture that it's a stupid one. Not just because the ads seem tone-deaf in context, but also because they sacrifice a major opportunity for McCain to do some branding for himself. McCain's whole America First theme could have worked extremely well in the context of the Olympics. Work in pitches from McCain-friendly athletes like Lance Armstrong and Curt Schilling, and there are a million directions you could go with this -- almost any of which would be better than the one he chose.
The McCain folks seem to be convinced that the 'Celebrity'-themed attack ads are working for them. Even if that were true, that's not necessarily a reason to run them during the Olympics. But there's not much evidence that they're working in the first place. If you look at our tracking graph, you'll see a slight downtick in Obama's numbers that occurred between roughly mid-June and mid-July ... before his trip abroad and before McCain's attack ads started running. Since then, the trend has been essentially flat.
There's a lot of noise in polling data -- and there has been especially much noise lately. A campaign that's cherry-picking the polls can tell itself almost any story that it wants to. But if it's making decisions like this one, it is doing so at its own peril.
8.10.2008
The Grinch Who Stole The Olympics
@ 1:46 PM
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Do we know what ad(s) Obama is airing for the olympics yet?
href="http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/08/obamas_olympic_ad_on_energy.php" Here is one of Obama's, not sure if it's the only one. Pretty good, I think.
Obama airing this ad http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/hands_ad/
Agreed. At a feel good time, when even Bush is getting positive press by being a good cheerleader, I think this is the wrong time for McCain to be making attack ads.
Mark,
The only Obama ad I've seen here in Chicago is this one on alt.energy.
It's sort of a weird ad because it doesn't really seem like a political commercial until the end ... although I guess maybe that's the point.
Yes, here is the link. It's definitely positive and forward thinking, not hounding on the negatives like McGrumpy's add. I think he needs his nappy changed.
http://link.brightcove.com/services/
link/bcpid1185304443/bctid1717903009
The link won't fit on one line so I had to split it on two like above.
The best ad I've seen in 2 elections is one the McCAIN camp put out this past week entitled: Democrats Praising McCAIN.
I am a McCain guy as you guys know, but I think a lot of his ad's suck, including that one above that goes from attacking Obama to praising McCain's energy plan... Doesn't make much since. Some other ones are pretty dumb too, including the celebrity one, which seems to be working well from what I hear.
McCain needs this ad on the tv pronto: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uSpcxkKlEFA&feature=related
This shows he is a bipartisan politician that will work to get things done across party aisles. Fabulous ad for the McCain camp, even better if I see it during the Olympics!
The timing last night of the celebrity add was TERRIBLE. It was the last commercial before Phelps accepted his gold medal. You would think the McCain campaign would be at least a little embarrassed by that...
Totally agree
Also, it was Obama's decision to go national first. McCain followed. It was a dumb decision for both of them. Spreading the map is good but you have to be realistic.
Part of the reason why spreading the map to deep red states was a smart move was that Montana and North Dakota are dirt cheap.
The four biggest and most expensive metro areas in this country are all in deep blue (NY, LA, Chicago) or deep red (Dallas) areas.
Obama was stupid to lead. McCain was even worse in following.
Side note:
It appears that they are both using the exact same stock footage of windmills. Kinda reminds me of the first Bush/Gore debate when they showed up wearing the exact same suit/tie combinations.
Not sure it means anything but its really funny.
At least Obama and McCain can find some common ground, have a look at the stock footage of windmills in both ads. Even stranger, it falls at or near 0:20 in both ads.
There is obviously only one explanation: CONSPIRACY!!!
I saw a T. Boone Pickens energy plan ad this morning using the exact same windmill footage as well.
If McCain doesn't get Obama's negatives up, and particularly press the point that it takes more than charisma to be President, McCain's going to lose.
Americans have had enough of Republicans and they are only going to go with one again if for some reason they can't go with Obama.
I'll say that Obama's Olympics ad is much better, it reminds me of the ads Carville and Begala did for Clinton on the economy in 1992. I wonder if hes getting advice from them now.
MvRed Democrats Praising McCain ad will backfire with the base. It was stupid. Low information Conservatives have enough problems with McCain. Now they might get confused and think hes become a liberal Democrat.
The DNC also parodied the McCain praise ad .
Republican voters are tired of their leadership walking on eggshells to please the left. So any kind of attack ad is a very good thing that will rally the GOP base.
I myself hate the reference that Obama is "Not Ready to Lead".
It's kind of saying that some day he would be. It's just wrong on so many levels.
I have mixed feelings on the Dem ad.
VACon is right. It will backfire with the base. At a certain point though, McCain is going to have to say "fuck the base, they are with me or they aren't". If we get to November and Obama has spent the entire time courting the center and McCain has spent the entire time securing his base, we're in landslide territory.
McCain needs to appeal to the center. I actually think the Dem ad is a reasonably good way to do that. The problem though is that I always believe that if a voter gets influenced by an ad, its only after hearing the ad and the rebuttal. The rebuttal is that all of those Democrats said those things a long time ago (except Hillary, but in the heat of the primary people always say things they don't mean see:Romney, Mitt). Part of the Obama storyline is "McCain was a maverick. He's not anymore".
Altogether, McCain has a real problem. He needs to appeal to centrists and his base. Every time he does anything that appeals to one, he risks seriously alienating the other.
This will energize the GOP hate machine, but most folks are sick of the GOP hate machine and they McCain's negatives will go up even further. Maybe they are trying to define Obama before he does and think it is their only hope, it may be but it seems a risky decision particularly after McCain swore he would stay positive.
On another note, the commercial really sucks, it seems it could have been written by any poster on this site...
"The best ad I've seen in 2 elections is one the McCAIN camp put out this past week entitled: Democrats Praising McCAIN."
I think that this IS a good ad - it enhances his valuable 'centrist' media credentials.
However, the Obama reply is even better - McCain was a moderate, but he changed.
McCain's celebrity angle does indeed seem tone deaf on a number of levels.
1. There must be a reason Obama is popular. Subconscious voter response, I'll go with popular.
2. McCain contends its some kind of cult following. Subconscious voter response, I'm insulted.
I've yet to hear anyone use this attack line on McCain.
3. It leaves McCain's own status as a celebrity, come media tart, open to derision. McCain's many film cameo's are proudly touted on imdb.com. Subconscious voter response, what a hypocrite.
In contract Obama's growingly poignant responses with ads and on the stump, are so far keeping body blows at bay. He could understandably flare up at these lies.
Is Obama's posture, (measured responses, 3:1 ground operation, outspending on ad buys) part of his strategy to get McCain to peek too soon?
Given recent election history it seems to me that Obama is steering his campaign extremely competently while McCain is clutching at straws
Maxx <>
If rallying the GOP was enough too win I'd say McCain's strategy was fine. The reality is unless he can crush Obama with independents - which there's no evidence he can - he has to win a substantial number of democrats. The truth is McCain is in a unique position to do this, or at least was, but everything he's doing is undermining this. Sending out tire gauges and adopting Rovian political tactics may excite the GOP but it annoys the hell out of Democrats. John McCain is keeping this close because older democrats have a decades long affection for him and a personal connection to the Vietnam war. Some guy showing up out of the blue and telling them trust me not him is going to happen overnight. The more McCain undermines his brand, the easier the task of converting these older voters will be for Obama.
Sour grapes, imo.
I'm sure the McCain campaign thanks you for your "advice."
If Obama's goal was to get McCain to waste money, his gambit was a success.
If Obama's goal was to set the stage for the convention, I'm not so sure.
While I like the ad, others have noted that it has this weird 'corporate' feel to it. It's so professionally done, it comes off like an ad for an energy company.
But maybe this is exactly what they're going for: portraying Obama as the slick, professional product compared to the local yokel yelling at the top of his lungs about discount mattresses. But does that just play into McCain's themes? It's hard to say. All in all, I would have preferred it if both kept politics out of the Olympics.
Why are we expecting competency from the mccain campaign until they show they're capable of it.
clarkejeffrey:
Part of the Obama storyline is "McCain was a maverick. He's not anymore".
And that is an ineffective strategy. One of the basic rules of campaigning is "always attack your opponent's strength". This is because if you can turn that strength into a weakness in any way, it is extremely powerful in turning votes to your side. it is worth going negative to accomplish that.
Obama's strength is his messanic image, his vague platitudes. McCain is attacking that strength and trying to turn it into a weakness by portraying him as a rock star, or vapid as Spears. It IS worth going negative to do this. Its a very strong move by McCain.
However, McCain's strength is NOT being a maverick. McCain's strength is his military service and his idea of the surge. Obama would need to attack McCain as a POW for example, which is pretty much impossible. Some strengths are better than others. Obama would need to attack McCain on his idea of a surge. Obama CANNOT give him credit for the surge. He cannot say the surge worked. He just hasn't figured out how to turn it around on McCain, and never will.
But when you understand how important it is to attack your opponent's strentgh, you quickly see that McCain has run a much stronger campaign to this point, and that's why he has gained on Obama ever since Obama's initial bump in the polls when he clinched the nom.
Running a highly negative ad in an environment built for "positive" is consistent with the reported feeling that they(McCain) must "destroy" Obama before the conventions or lose. If they believe that then it makes sense. I think its foolish, but I am not privy to their internals.
It's frustrating to me how much the news reporters talk up the supposed seesaw battle for the presidency when most of what's going on is simple background noise -- the variation inherent in the polling process. They don't even take care to compare polls from the same provider, where at least the methodical differences are minimized. Ignorance or carelessness? Maybe it's both!
Roller-coaster polling
You guys seem to think Obama can actually get more popular than he is now. Popularity is the only thing he has going for him.
How is he going to do this? He's already danced with Ellen, shared the stage with Oprah, and pandered to the Hollywood elitists with that democrat Oscar award show that was supposed to be a debate.
In reality, Obama has peaked. He's all image. If you are not in love with him by now... you will never be. If you are sheepish enough to fall in love with him... the admiration will wane because he's just a politician. His words are feel good slogans of nothingness.
He has no place to go but down. He has nothing to take him higher. He's not a real artist with something new to coming out tomorrow.
Brian
You're not gonna get too many people on either side of the aisle to agree with you that McCain's run a competent campaign, much less a good one.
The celebrity pivot was smart in theory, but it's execution has been pretty poor; I mean, when Paris Hilton is making fun of you, you've stumbled into some kind of Shangri-La of vapidity.
Add to that the lack of message control (who told Grahm he could call the economy "purely psychological"?), the inability to rally GOP enthusiasm (and, looking at McCain's campaign schedule, possibly the candidate's enthusiasm), and a number of unforced errors, and you have a fairly mediocre campaign effort thus far.
Obama holding comfortably at +3 for the entire summer doesn't seem to amazing, put in that light.
The Surge isn't an easily attackable strength, because the explanation for why the Surge didn't work is too nuanced and long for general consumption. In a sense, that's how Mc894/899's flub on the Anbar Awakening gave the Obama camp the opening they needed because it showed a fundamental misunderstanding. However, the Obama camp has not capitalized on it nearly enough.
As far as the ads go, I think McCain is becoming defined by his anti-Obama focus more than they were planning on. I mean, the negative ad right before Phelps took the podium was just amazing timing. Things can always change, but it was a huge tactical mistake in a campaign that can't make too many more of them to have a reliable chance.
The use of the same (or at least similar) windmill stock footage also jumped out at me.
It seems to me that while it makes them both look a little silly, it undermines McCain's tack more. McCain is trying to say Obama is all flash and no substance (or perhaps a hidden elitist agenda--his commercial implies a bit of both), while McCain has specific ideas. When the specifics turn out to be the same, that tends to make them both look vapid.
But negating both sides' Olympic ad buys is a win for Obama. He's ahead, albeit narrowly, but I'd argue that poll internals (like enthusiasm) suggest that McCain needs to shake things up if he wants to have a chance. Also, having McCain spend $6 million to negate Obama's $5 million is a clear win for Obama, even if it's money that McCain had to spend before the conventions anyway.
McCain's ad is running here in Arizona.
Arizona!
What a waste of money!
However, McCain's strength is NOT being a maverick. McCain's strength is his military service and his idea of the surge.
I disagree ocmpletely. The last four elections have all seen a veteran lose to a non-veteran. Military service doesn't mean as much as you think it does.
The Reps have this weird idea that they can somehow separate the surge from the overall war. Obama opposed the surge which seems like a good idea in hindsight so he lacks judgement. However, McCain supported the war, which seems like a really bad idea in hindsight so he lacks judgement. Most Americans now think the war was a big mistake. Its an enormous tightrope act to make it all about the surge and not the overall war. The two come together and I don't think its a winning issue for McCain.
But all of this obscures the greater point, Americans are far more interested in Dom policy than foreign policy. They hate Bush because he placed conservative Republican dogma above centrist common sense. McCain's greatest strength is that he appeared to be a maverick, willing to buck the Republicans to appeal to the middle. If he does get elected, he'll get elected on that basis. Its that strength that the Democrats need to attack.
If McCain seriously thinks he can get elected just by saying "I'm a vet and he's not", he should really look at the last four elections. Its not that big a strength because the American people don't care.
Well Bee I'm sure it's a national ad... which means Obammy's will be running in San Francisco. I'm sure that's a big waste as well.
"The Reps have this weird idea that they can somehow separate the surge from the overall war."
The Dems have this weird idea that they can somehow separate a terrorist attack on American soil from a U.S. Military response.
McCain is beyond pathetic! I can't believe how much he has changed how HORRIBLE of a candidate he is! Who in their RIGHT MIND would vote for him? All he knows what to do is talk about Obama.
McCain is beyond pathetic! I can't believe how much he has changed how HORRIBLE of a candidate he is! Who in their RIGHT MIND would vote for him? All he knows what to do is talk about Obama.
Low information Conservatives have enough problems with McCain. Now they might get confused and think hes become a liberal Democrat.
I love it! "Low Information Conservatives"! The perfect euphemism for the Bush 28%.
One of these voters is a LIC. More than one? LICE
I love how the Surge is now "McCain's idea." That spin's got me dizzy.
However, McCain's strength is NOT being a maverick. McCain's strength is his military service and his idea of the surge.
Actually, McCain's strength is being a maverick in the sense of not being Bush. That's his 'strength,' and that's what Democrats will be attacking mercilessly between now and November.
But when you understand how important it is to attack your opponent's strentgh, you quickly see that McCain has run a much stronger campaign to this point, and that's why he has gained on Obama ever since Obama's initial bump in the polls when he clinched the nom.
What polls are you looking at? McCain is doing about 2 points better in Ras since Ras adjusted his party ID model 2 points towards the Republicans. Since early June, Gallup has McCain collapsing from the 45-46 range to 41-43 with occasional upticks for Obama. That's hardly a steady gain.
And if you just look to your right, you'll see that Obama has gained in many state polls since June, while others have wavered about in the MOE.
He has no place to go but down. He has nothing to take him higher. He's not a real artist with something new to coming out tomorrow.
Well, if Obama's peaked, then so has McCain. And it looks like Obama's peaked higher. Too bad for you.
The Dems have this weird idea that they can somehow separate a terrorist attack on American soil from a U.S. Military response.
Oh please, let McCain try to tie Iraq to 9/11. Please please please!
Brian said: One of the basic rules of campaigning is "always attack your opponent's strength".
One of the basic strengths of the Obama campaign is to not depend on all the old basic rules of campaigning. Not to say they won't use that tactic, but part of the fascination of the Obama campaign is watching them do some things differently.
I have said before that I don't think voters will be pleased to see negative ads during the Olympics. It would be interesting to know who is making the ad decisions in the McCain campaign.
"The Reps have this weird idea that they can somehow separate the surge from the overall war."
The Dems have this weird idea that they can somehow separate a terrorist attack on American soil from a U.S. Military response.
Absolutely not!!!!
Obama completely supported the US military response in Afghanistan.
What happened in Iraq had nothing to do with 9/11 unless you believe the bizarre theory that all Arabs are the same.
I think this is why so many Americans are upset about Iraq. We were fed a bunch of lies and led to believe that it was related to 9/11 when it was very obvious that it wasn't. That is what caused the backlash.
I know that Sen McCain doesn't know the difference between Sunni and Shiite, Iraq and Afghanistan, but I can guarantee you that Sen Obama does.
My girlfriend and I have been adding a line between "Because America's future... is in our hands" / "I'm Barack Obama and I approve this message":
"And because John McCain called his wife a cunt."
You have to use one of those auctioneer voices, and the timing is tricky. But man, does it make the Hands ad more entertaining.
And effective.
"In reality, Obama has peaked. He's all image. If you are not in love with him by now... you will never be. If you are sheepish enough to fall in love with him... the admiration will wane because he's just a politician. His words are feel good slogans of nothingness.
He has no place to go but down. He has nothing to take him higher. He's not a real artist with something new to coming out tomorrow."
Wishful thinking, Darien. A fourth of the country still thinks Obama is a Muslim. The convention, the debates, and the final weeks of the campaign when the LIVs finally focus will change all that and add at least another four points to his popular vote advantage.
The GOP needed a Reagan-type candidate to overcome their current electoral mess. Instead they got Mr. Magoo, who pounded the last nail in his own coffin by dredging up the Bush Social Security privatization scheme. As a result, Obama wins Florida, Ohio and about 360 EVs overall.
So say hello to Mr. O as your new President, a Democrat-dominated House and Senate (go caucus by yourself, Joementum), and, very likely, Hillary as the next Supreme Court justice.
"I know that Sen McCain doesn't know the difference between Sunni and Shiite, Iraq and Afghanistan".
Not only this, McCain said too that Pakistan limits Irak.
If that´s the "experience"......
The so-called Messianic image of Obama is nothing more that a bs talking point of the right.
Being a leader that can inspire with his oratory is an excellent characteristic for a president to have. And it is far from the only reason more voters prefer Obama over McCain. The right would like to paint him as someone who is "only" a good orator. However all we have to do is examine the well-run Obama campaign versus the stumble, bumble McCain campaign to see that Obama has far more to offer as President than McCain does. One example: How many times is it now that McCain has had to reorganize his campaign versus Obama who has had no need to do that?
Obama has demonstrated better strategic skills, better management, better ideas, and a more positive vision. McCain does have a bus with a good name.
I don't think many in the audience to the Olympics parse the ads as much as we do. However, I do think the McCain ad being negative is bad: McCain needs to get people to support him, to close the enthusiasm gap. Saying bad things about Obama, especially ones that are confusing (Isn't Obama the one pushing alternate power? Didn't Obama say no tax increase for people making under $250,000), doesn't make people excited about McCain.
Yes, I noticed the similarity of windmills.
Apeman,
Hussein should have been deposed in '91, the U.N. made it possible for him to remain in power.
William Jefferson Clinton made U.S. Policy to Iraq... Regime Change. I wish he would have done it himself.
When George told the world that "Either you are with us or you are with the terrorists", I knew what he meant. I guess you were not listening.
I want to give terrorists a bullet or a lethal injection... you want to give them a lawyer.
Hillary will never be a Supreme Court Justice.
She's a proven liar.
Darien Crow apparently has the magical ability to tell the difference between a terrorist and an Arab that doesn't approve of U.S. foreign policy.
Isn't that the kind of superpower that usually comes with tights and a cape?
Damn... I've been outed.
I'm Batman
McCain constantly does better than the generic Republican vs. the Generic Democrat, which suggests that being a 'Maverick' is a strength. This further suggests that calling out his connections / similarities to Bush is a wise strategy.
To say otherwise is ignoring the evidence.
DarienCrow said...
"I want to give terrorists a bullet or a lethal injection... you want to give them a lawyer."
And this is why they hate you. This is the attitude than directly led to 9/11 in the first place.
Congratulations, you are helping the enemy.
Normal humans want to punish the guilty and not the innocent. You need to have a trail to figure that out.
"In reality, Obama has peaked. He's all image. If you are not in love with him by now... you will never be.
I agree with Naomi that this comment is completely off the mark. Listen - only a very small percentage of this "low information" nation is paying attention at this early date. Obama still has huge upside potential.
For example, leading up Super Tuesday, when I cast my vote, I was listening to Thom Hartmann and leaning towards Edwards because of his platform. I had heard a little clip of Obama speaking and concluded that his oratory skills were overrated. That was my story and I was sticking to it, and I found myself simply not ever clicking on any Obama clips - I just wasn't interested in listening to a whole speech.
Edwards dropped out at the last minute and I voted, half-heartedly, for Obama, because I suspected Clinton of being too allied with lobbyists.
Obama surprisingly held his own against Clinton on Feb. 5, so, impressed with his underdog performance, and amazed that someone I had voted for had actually won, I sat back in my chair and listened to his entire speech.
In the next month, I contributed ten times more to the Obama campaign that all of the other political contributions of my life combined.
Point being, sure, let's kill terrorists. But let's do it with a fair trial by jury. You start doing it with bombs instead of jurisprudence, and for every terrorist you kill, three more pop up to replace him.
I mean, it's not that nuanced of a position: you drop a bomb on a terrorist, congrats, he's dead! But his sons are alive. And Al-Qaeda walks up to them and offers them a chance to not only avenge their father but to financially secure their families (terrorist groups pay handsomely to the families of suicide bombers). What the fuck do you think you're gonna do? Now, you've got three terrorists to kill.
If I were Republican, I'd say "Darien Crow supports policies that create terrorists!" Of course that's not what he's saying, but it's factually true.
Instead, I'll say Darien Crow supports foolhardy and wrongheaded policies that will only make a dangerous situation much, much worse.
"In reality, Obama has peaked. He's all image. If you are not in love with him by now... you will never be."
I suppose, based on this logic, you would have advised Ronald Reagan to drop out of the election in 1980 before the convention.
Obama's ad, Hands is so superior to Mccain's negative dark cynical pessimistic gop view of the world.
it reminds me how much better the world would be with the GOP out of power, into the wilderness... off the news.
Wait a second... let me get this straight.
These terrorists want to destroy the American way of life... and they want to destroy our way of life even if you don't believe them when they say it... and I'm not supposed to want them punished for their acts of war because they might hate me if I do?
I don't care if they hate me. They need to understand that we will not allow them to destroy Israel. It's that simple. They took 2 of our buildings... we took 2 of there countries. I don't think they will want to try for 3.
It's kind of sad that I am willing to fight for your life when I know quite well you would not do the same for me, but that's part of our history isn't it?
I disagree, Nate. I think the campaign is getting away from Obama, quickly. McCain is very successful at branding Obama, and Obama has not responded, even though McCain has terrific weaknesses when the layers are peeled (adultery, flip-flopping, lobby pandering, Bush III, and so on.)
ryil-
I agree, this is definitely the right step for McCain to take. If he can make this election about whether the American people can "trust" Obama, and not about comparing Obama and McCain and taking the lesser of two evils, he'll win easily.
So far he's done a very good job of it, I think.
Strawman argument. I do want the terrorists brought to justice, in fact I plainly said as much (please reread my last post).
And yes they will try for three buildings. You know why? These are fucking extremists. They're madmen. They DO NOT CARE that we are going to drop bombs on their civilian populations in retaliation for their terror attacks, because they DO NOT CARE about human life. They will sacrifice every man, woman, and child for their sick twisted idea of religious fidelity.
We will not win the War on Terror with bombs and guns; we will win it by bringing the Middle East into the 21st (or the very least 20th) century.
As a side note, your argument shows how very little you understand about the conflict. "They"? Who are "they"? The Sunnis? The Shi'ites? The nominally atheist Hussein regime? The Wahhabists? I mean, do all brown people look alike to you?
When we bomb a country, that country doesn't start liking us. They start wanting to bomb us back. And guess what: now we gotta fight those guys too. Violence begets violence and it never ever ends.
If we had focused on hunting down and prosecuting the people who actually did attack us on 9/11 (bin Laden and al-Qaeda, remember them?), we wouldn't be in this awful quagmire that we're stuck in now.
But of course, it was never about terrorism; it was always about geopolitics.
You're not willing to fight for my life, you're willing to let other people bomb innocent civilians so you don't have to think about how complicated this issue really is.
Dude... Ronald Reagan was enormously more qualified to be president than Obama. There was more to learn about Reagan... and the more you knew about him the more you knew he needed to take the lead from that first class wimp named Jimmy Carter.
No comparison.
Careful, now. One of the biggest mistakes that Democrats have made is to underestimate the tendency to vote for things other than "their pocketbook." Obama is certainly doing a better job than either Gore or Kerry in this respect, but to listen to some of the comments on this site, anyone who supports McCain and isn't a corporate fat-cat is ... I'm not sure what some of you are suggesting. But it doesn't help to insult people's intelligence.
For the record, I positively think McCain's policies would be a disaster — more of the same? — no, worse than Bush. In a stark reminder that Bush never had foreign policies of his own (neither Yale nor the Texas Rangers taught him those) or any intellectual integrity, the "pragmatists" in the Republican wing have had a resurgence at the expense of the neo-cons. McCain, oddly or not, has become a full-blown neo-con recently — and seems intent on winning the war in Vietnam, along with Iran. And even Bush never got ANWR drilling pushed through ...
Furthermore, this site is great (and different) because we focus on the math and the factors, rather than assuming everyone else is not worth taking seriously. Let's keep it that way.
Ronald Reagan
Governor of California: 1967-1975
President of the United States: 1981-1989
Barack Obama
Illinois State Senator, 1997–2004
U.S. Senator, 2005–2008
Actually, Obama has been in elected office longer than Reagan had before becoming president.
Darien: Do you not understand that not all Arabs are terrorists?
You go into these countries, kill innocent civilians by accident (something that's unavoidable no matter how great our military is) and then people, who otherwise didn't hate America, now have a complete and legitimate reason to hate us.
John McCain's problem is that if voters like both him and Barack Obama, Obama wins - they prefer Obama's policies.
But let's not give the campaign too many suggestions - the Olympics have more than a week to go. I haven't even seen Barack Obama's ad yet. Things are clearly still just heating up.
Iran wants nuclear weapons. You really don't buy that whole peaceful energy purpose do you?
They want to perform high tech mass terrorism on Israel.
The only hope for this not to happen is for them to finally realize that we can drill oil through glass just as easily as through sand.
The big stick part of Teddy's way of doing things always got us through on top.
The thing I love about the McCain celebrity ad slamming Obama is this: Every time I see it, the only thing that stands out for me is the crowd chanting "O-ba-ma!" in front of the Victory Tower. My takeaway ever time is "wow, this Obama guy is awesome, and those windmills are pretty." Worst. Attackad. Evar.
Oh Darien, you card. You want to know the beautiful thing about the post-WWII, nuclear age? War between nuclear powers is obsolete. If Iran uses nuclear weapons on Israel, they will retaliate with nuclear weapons of their own.
Oh, and did I forget to mention that Israel is close allies with the country possessing the largest nuclear stockpile in the world?
Iran knows very well that it will cease to exist as a country if it uses nuclear weapons offensively, just as the Soviet Union knew. The only rational use of nuclear weapons in this day and age is as a bargaining tool to get aid, like North Korea is doing now.
McCain's ad might appeal to the base as part of the "competitiveness" of the Olympics.
To independants and undecideds, I think it will seem "disharmonious," to borrow a favorite word of the Beijing Olympics. To Democrats, even McCain leaning Democrats, it will be slightly offensive.
Best case scenario: a draw. And he's out 6 mil.
Obama's ad isn't much different than the one for Visa: general good feeling, inspiring pictures, no specifics. But Visa's spending millions to run their ads? Why? People don't consciously make decisions on these ads. But they influence the subconscious. And Visa knows it translates into customers.
There's a good chance Obama's ad may subconsciouly influence a percent of the undecided electorate by making them associate good feelings of the Olympics with Obama. That also meshes well with his international tour and crowds outpouring - so the message is consistent and grows over time.
Oddly, McCains add only reinforces Obamas: both say that Obama is well liked and fits with the ideals of the Olympics.
Maybe in the end Obama gets 1/2 a point out of it. If that's the case, it's a smart 5 mil investment. Round: Obama.
McCain's strength is his military service and his idea of the surge. Obama would need to attack McCain as a POW for example, which is pretty much impossible.
This is why I think Obama should pick Wesley Clark, and have him do a 5+5+5 speech:
Only 5 students finished below McCain in a class of 899
McCain crashed 5 planes in a short period of time
5 years in a cage because McCain only believes in "no surrender" when OTHER people are involved
All of this adds up to foreign policy experience?
Wow, you are an awful debater, Darien. What the hell are you talking about?
How does bombing civilian populations in Iraq keep Iran from getting nuclear weapons?
Yes, military intervention is on the table for keeping Iran from getting the bomb, as well it should be. But there is a large pro-Western moderate youth in Iran. In 20 years, they're gonna overthrow the mullahs and start a democracy, not because the American way is awesome or they're afraid of getting nuked into glass, but because they want to eat McDonald's and listen to Britney Spears.
Did you see how this country rallied behind its president after 9/11? A military strike (nuclear or otherwise) on Iran would do the same thing to them, and push back Iranian democracy for possibly another generation.
Yes, military intervention has to be on the table, but only as a last resort, because it comes with a terrible long-term price.
"[W]e can drill oil through glass just as easily as through sand."
You're a sick son of a bitch, you know that? You're a borderline sociopath, and I have no interest in anything you say after that.
People knew more about Ronald Reagan 3 months out of the 1980 election than they do about Obama 3 months from this election - Reagan had already run for national office - and they still did not support him until he won the debates because he was a better communicator.
This is shamelesly off-topic - though actually it ties into Nate's post in that it is about national vs. State trends.
Commenters here often complain that this or that state gets polled too often or not frequently enough, so since I had some free time I've decided to quantify this. The following provides the polling per capita for each State.
"polling" is 538 points of pollster weight from 8/8 (There's a complication here, in that Nate has the minimum .25 rule, but it's a fairly small matter).
"capita" is the population in millions rounded to first decimal.
The third number for each state is the first divided by the second.
Why do I do "polling per capita" and not "polling per tipping point"? - There's a reason which involves a more technical issue about methodology which I hope to get to in a separate comment.
OK, here's the list:
AK 225 .7 321
NH 258 1.3 198
ND 111 .6 185
MT 130 .9 144
ME 138 1.3 106
MO 559 5.8 96
NM 186 2 93
WA 562 6.4 88
NE 149 1.8 83
CT 268 3.5 77
WI 430 5.6 77
CO 356 4.8 74
MS 211 2.9 73
KY 280 4.2 67
OR 235 3.7 64
MN 326 5.2 63
RI 70 1.1 63
VT 38 .6 63
SD 50 .8 62
AL 260 4.5 57
NC 490 8.9 55
NV 132 2.5 53
IA 154 3 51
KS 143 2.8 51
WY 25 .5 50
MI 492 10.1 49
ID 73 1.5 48
MA 287 6.4 45
NJ 380 8.7 44
AZ 257 6.2 41
FL 743 18.1 41
OH 444 11.5 39
PA 487 12.4 39
VA 301 7.6 39
SC 147 4.3 34
AR 89 2.8 32
OK 114 3.6 32
DE 25 .9 28
GA 252 9.4 27
NY 519 19.3 27
LA 111 4.3 26
UT 63 2.5 25
HI 25 1.3 19
IN 119 6.3 19
WV 25 1.8 14
CA 377 36.5 10
TX 221 23.5 9
TN 47 6 8
MD 36 5.6 6
IL 62 12.8 5
DC 0 0 0
Robby,
Ronald Reagan at least governed something. WHAT HAS OBAMA ACCOMPLISHED??? nothing
"Wait a second... let me get this straight.
These terrorists want to destroy the American way of life... and they want to destroy our way of life even if you don't believe them when they say it... and I'm not supposed to want them punished for their acts of war because they might hate me if I do?"
I have a question, are you intentionally acting this stupid?
You attacked those who want to figure out who is guilty and who is innocent, so when you say you want to punish the guilty, you are lying. What you want to do is get revenge against the most convenient target, and this attitude will only lead to more attacks.
"They took 2 of our buildings... we took 2 of there countries. I don't think they will want to try for 3."
You are clearly an idiot. As long as the United States continues to be led by people like you, they will continue to attack the United States regardless of the costs.
"It's kind of sad that I am willing to fight for your life when I know quite well you would not do the same for me, but that's part of our history isn't it?"
I'm trying to protect your life by stopping you from making the same mistake again and again. There is no situation do dangerous that is can't be made worse by the implementation of a poorly thought out plan.
epony...
I like what you say here but I believe it discounts the main fear factor. What if Iran doesn't really care about their own survival? Maybe they want to cause global genocide as their destiny? Maybe destroying Israel is more important than life itself? I think they have all proven themselves capable of sacrificing their own lives and the lives of everyone else for their cause.
I don't trust it... sorry
"The big stick part of Teddy's way of doing things always got us through on top."
If T.R. was aware of someone like you associating with him, he would rise from the grave and campaign for obama
humanist-
Why per capita? Why not per elector?
"...but because they want to eat McDonald's and listen to Britney Spears."
Suddenly nuking them seems almost humanitarian.
(That was a joke, before anyone starts freaking out.)
There is no point trying to converse with darien here. His attitude is identical to that of the terrorists: "anyone who is not like me should die".
He doesn't care that going into Iraq took our military AWAY from going after the people responsible for 9/11 - it killed more people-not-like-us, so it was a Good Thing.
Anyone who thinks we should kill everyone in a country because of what a leadership we had propped up against the will of the citizenry wants to do is not willing to reasonably address geopolitics.
Humanist, interesting post.
I sort of hate to be one of those people who wags a finger and warns against troll-feeding, but folks, the CrowTroll is indeed, as one poster asked, deliberately being this stupid. Like many "conservatives," he doesn't believe his inherently contradictory, artificially constructed political philosophy, and is just trying to get some goats.
However, many of the rebuttals are excellent, and he has no good material for comebacks, so on second thought, never mind! Keep pummeling him. :)
"Anyone who thinks we should kill everyone in a country because of what a leadership we had propped up against the will of the citizenry wants to do is not willing to reasonably address geopolitics."
Good point. Well made.
joel s:
Being a POW isn't "foreign policy experience" as much as it generates an enormous amount of respect for McCain for a lot of voters. That's pretty much impossible to assail. Its a powerful strength.
I've decided that I will spend election night here on this blog.
My wife and I will get a big pizza and some great beer... turn on Brit Hume for the election coverage... and I'll flip back and forth from my interactive electoral map and this blog.
You can either rub my face in it or I will be calling out to the crickets out there. Deal? :)
First I should assure everyone - I have tenure already. (But don't tell my dean how I spend my time!)
thanks hijadelsol: why do I do per capita? Because I'm mostly interested in the question of the the State-vs-National polling effects.
1. Suppose there is a trend in some States that for some reason are systematically less polled than others that do not display this trend. Then an average based on State polling, which is in some way weighted by the actual amount of polling condicuted, would tend to miss the trend. I do not know how Nate weights State polling data for supertracker purposes but he cannot ignore the amount of polling, treatng all states just by their populations, because this means California polls etc. would create enormous volatility. Hence the supertracker probably has some effect of this kind.
2. Even without this, there is another, deeper problem, essentially the same as the one Nate discussed in his cellphone analysis. What does Nate do in his National numbers? He essentially takes the various State polls and weight them by State populations. However, this means that States that get lower per capita polling would inject volatility into the model.
Consider what's going on with Rasmussen and California. There are two recent Rasmussen CA numbers, from June and July, +28 and +10 respectively. This drop of 18 margin points from a state that has a little more than 10% of the US population is equivalent in an of itself to a drop of 2 points margin Nationally, which is also the national drop in the Rasmussen tracker through the same time frame.
So did Obama stay everywhere the same and fell off sharply in California? Of course not: it is rather that the small volume of State polling for California creates a misleading picture and we can say WITH CERTAINTY that Obama's loss in California from June to July was less than that. But how much less? We have no idea: we are basically in the dark for roughly 10% of the electorate right there. Which means we are in the dark about 10% of the meaning of the National Tracker right there!
A key question remains: are there typical characteristics of under-polled states, so that this effect has POLITICAL significance?
What amazes me is that John McCain insists that Obama doesn't have an energy plan, yet the very reason I supported Obama early on was that he was the first to release an energy plan, that it was detailed and that it consisted of multi-pronged solutions.
http://www.barackobama.com/pdf/factsheet_energy_speech_080308.pdf
That wasn't new, it has been on his site for nearly a year now.
John McCain's ignorance is not Barack Obama's fault.
From the Las Vegas Sun:
Duke Hendershot, a double amputee retired Marine who served in Vietnam, supported McCain's run for president in 2000 but is undecided this year.
"John just isn't the same as he used to be. He's not his own man," said Hendershot, who lives in San Antonio, Texas. "A lot of that has to do with how he's wanted this job so bad for so long that he's tied himself to President Bush."
He said McCains embrace of Bush, whom Hendershot called a "draft-dodging coward," is even more perplexing because of the rivalry between the two candidates during the 2000 campaign.
Hendershot also criticized McCain for taking swipes at Obama in his speech. "He should have been talking about veterans issues, not his opponent," he said.
By contrast, he praised Obama for keeping his remarks tightly focused on veterans.
The $6 million that McCain is spending is irrelevant if he is going to take Public Financing. He can't raise money for the general in this case so he has to empty his coffers.
Most of the people on this site are looking at the ad blitz completely wrong. McCain is already viewed as a plausible and acceptable choice for president so he has already met this threshold. McCain has to keep Obama from meeting this threshold since if Obama is considered a plausible Commander in Chief he will win even if McCain walks on water and feeds the five thousand. The D vs R generic advantage is too large this year. In that respect, if he drags Obama down into the mud with him, McCain wins. If he can't, he will lose.
Cool Jeremy...
This means Obama has a small shot at getting one vote from the military camp.
Amazing that the newspaper here in Las Vegas (yes I'm a local) used an entire story on one voter that might vote for Obama... and they had to go all the way to Texas to find him.
Lugar-Obama, Coburn-Obama, and Obama-Hagel.
These aren't VP speculations, by the way, these are the names of bills that Obama has helped author and pass.
Yeah, you've really convinced me; his legislative accomplishments at the state and federal level don't hold a candle to playing the lead role in "Bedtime for Bonzo."
How does a State become decently polled?
There are two main routes:
- Be small. Even a small State is bound to get a poll or two - which per capita would be at least decent. (DC however fails even in that).
- Be politically interesting.
Alaska is very small and in this cycle is especially politically interesting, so it is top of the charts.
Nate debunked the standard assumption that PV-EV arithmetic is pro-Republican; but it remains true that most small states are Red. Further, the nature of this campaign is that while purple States are all, obviously, politically interesting, so are also many red ones. (It is very telling that Arizona has so much more polling than Illinois).
The outcome is that there's a meaningful correlation between being a reliably blue State and being underpolled. The major and important exception is Texas, which is underpolled even though it is probably still reliably red.
What we really do not know is what happens in California, New York and Illinois.
Do I see here some kind of loophope through which we can drill our way out of bad polling? Not at all! The real point is this:
When we see a trend in the National polls, we are at the dark concerning how much of that takes place in the dark-blue - the dark blue matter of these elections, as it were. One should hope downtrends happen there and uptrends do not - but we do not have enough evidence to say.
Actually out of the 14 veterans they interviewed only 1 was committed to McCain.
From GA - I've seen both ads here on opening night.
McCain using an attack ad intruding on the Olympics has to be the dumbest thing done yet and that is going some based on the moronic campaign so far.
This is the time for rah rah, patriotic, American themes...isn't that McCain claims he is - "The American President"..
Here is the graphic to be looking at:
http://www.jedreport.com/2008/08/barack-obama-is.html
I think that the Obama team will start on McCain in Denver and by election day will have dissected him like a biology class frog - often with his own words as we are seeing this week in the ads..
On an $85 M budget McCain will have real limitations to fight the Obama onslaught...while the ground game just walks on and on and over him
I'm starting to see O's Olympic buy as a sort of deliberate fake. Even trolls like PeteKent were reacting with how "inappropriate" a political ad in the midst of the games might seem, and maybe that has merit. So the Obama team makes a safe bet that McCain will counter the 5 mil buy with an equal+ buy on a negative ad. The neg, however, is correctly read as inappropriate. Meanwhile, the Obama ad is so feel-good and innocuous that it hardly comes across as a political ad at all. Political jujitsu at work?
Okay that's 13 Jeremy... he's moving up.
Just remember the Sun is in the tank for Obama... and really when it comes down to it the American people as a whole do not like the press trying to make them vote for their guy.
I am 30 and very inexperienced with these presidential races. I remember Reagan (vaguely i was a kid) mostly I remember my parents, Democrats, and they loved him! Bush Sr. I started to understand, and after his father I have no idea how Jr. got two terms! Oh yeah Kerry, Ughh! Clinton was great in my eyes. Not perfect but the right guy at the right time. I watched Gore and voted for him mostly because I didn't want to see the country go backwards. My biggest fear came true. I am an independant and actually USED to like McCain, but now he has changed. He has become part of this Republican party that has forgotten what they stand for. They became so frustrated with lack of power they will and have done anything to get elected. They are a fear machine and feeding on peoples ignorance. It is really scarey because honestly the Republican party does have alot more to offer. I am not saying the Democrats are much different however I feel Obama is. I know it is a PR machine but you can tell he means what he says. He has polished up since Hillary took him to the shed in the debates. He looks, acts and sounds to me what an American President should be. We are a proud nation that has been the front runner to the world. We have done great things at all levels. But running a country is about image and ours sucks right now. The world has caught up and we aren't sitting fat anymore. Everyone complains about jobs being taken away. Work harder! That is how they are taking them. Do you work as hard as your parents or grandparents? My guess is no. I don't. I am glad I don't but if I become complacent and expect things I won't get anywhere and neither will you. America is complacent and we need a kick in the ass. Someone with vision and a clear inspiring plan to move us into the future. Does McCain do that for you?
"and really when it comes down to it the American people as a whole do not like the press trying to make them vote for their guy"
And that is why Fox "News" is a joke.
Well, DarianCrow committed the ultimate act of desperation - screaming "media bias".
Bush Sr. did it, Dole did it and McCain did it. Looks like Darien is in good company.
Dariencrow -
Thank you for helping the Obama campaign.
"The only hope for this not to happen is for them to finally realize that we can drill oil through glass just as easily as through sand."
This is a not-very-coded way of advocating a nuclear attack on Iran.
The average American may not realize that Iran has never invaded any other country and had nothing to do with 9/11 or any other attack on US soil. They may not even realize that Israel has plenty of nuclear weapons of their own, and that an unprovoked attack by Iran on Israel would be completely looney-tunes, and suicidal for Iran, even if the US did nothing. Hell, the average American may not even realize that Iran is trying to build nukes because George Bush keeps threatening them. Israel makes noise, but Israel isn't threatening to nuke Iran or launch a full scale invasion.
They do realize that a cavalier, sadistic attitude about using nuclear weapons is insane. Not "conservative", because it isn't, not "realist", just insane.
You think that you can justify pointless attacks on innocent people by screaming the word "terrorist".
The problem is, that trick doesn't work anymore. 4,500 American soldiers have died in Iraq, many times as many have been crippled, blinded, maimed, and destroyed psychologically. We've wasted literally trillions of dollars. And it was all useless, from the US point of view. It didn't make us any safer, or any richer (to put it mildly).
Whether "the surge" made things better for some Iraqis or not is actually irrelevant. We killed hundreds of thousands of them for no actual reason (no Iraqi had attacked us). Certainly some of the ones that lived are better off - Maliki for example. But they don't want any more "surge", they want us out.
Anyone who reads this thread is going to see the McCain supporter advocating self-destructive, sadistic violence.
Sure, Darien, if you want to hang out here on election night while watching (uh) Brit Hume, no one can stop you. :)
The $6 million that McCain is spending is irrelevant if he is going to take Public Financing. He can't raise money for the general in this case so he has to empty his coffers.
Most of the people on this site are looking at the ad blitz completely wrong. McCain is already viewed as a plausible and acceptable choice for president so he has already met this threshold. McCain has to keep Obama from meeting this threshold since if Obama is considered a plausible Commander in Chief he will win even if McCain walks on water and feeds the five thousand. The D vs R generic advantage is too large this year. In that respect, if he drags Obama down into the mud with him, McCain wins. If he can't, he will lose.
Wow, NJ Not-Really-A-Moderate!!!!!!!!!!! Best comment from you that I've ever seen. And the huge problem for your team is that the more people see of Obama, the more they like him. You also forgot to add than the more they see of McNap (when he can be bothered to get out of bed and campaign), the less they like him. I just hope he tries to tell a joke or smile at one, or better yet, all three, of the debates. I can hear the plummeting poll numbers from here as people consider having that essentially-insane ghoul at the helm of the nation's military.
It took a few minutes to figure out, but you wingnuts on this site have the same bitter hatred that the PUMAs do. Must be the effect of getting your ass whipped by Obama.
The next eight years are gonna be tough on you, aren't they. Discuss.*
* H/T to Pete. LOL
humanist said:
How does a State become decently polled?
The most accurate polls are polls of likely voters, so a healthy amount of likely voter polls is a good way to get there. For example, the most recent gallup poll of likely voters has McCain +4, and if I had to trust just one poll, it would be that one. I believe McCain is in the lead right now.
If we can survive eight years. Obama's milquetoast response to the Georgian crisis is very disconcerting. He better pick a foreign policy VP since he does not meet and will not meet the C-In-C threshold by himself.
Crow is from Vegas too? Now I feel dirty! I'll think I'll get drunk, blow all my money in the slots, and go get some of the smut they pass out on the street to advertise call-girl services. I'll feel better then.
But, seriously, I treat most of these right-wing talkers(and many of the really out in left field ones), especially Crow and Pete, as satirists. And I usually skim or skip their posts.
I just can't believe anyone would actually think some of the things they spew.
REgarding the topic, I'm of the opinion that Mccain damaged himself with his ad-buy and the particular ad he put up. It was, frankly, stupid.
I think Obama's response was appropriate. In that case it's better not to appear to be favoring one side over the other. He basically called both sides out, whereas Mccain simply ripped into Russia. Delicate diplomatic dance and all.
Sniperct
McCain had better things to do with that money. He is a well-known brand and doesn't need a national buy. That sixmil could be better spent in the rust belt where if he doesn't crack it soon the rest is moot.
As to your follow up comment, Russia/Georgia is a lose/lose scenario. But trying to CYA by attacking Obama through Russia is insane.
Senator, can you explain your strong attack on Russia while your manager is actively affiliated with lobbying for Georgia?
hey whatcha all having a discussion without me for? I couldn't read all the comments -too boring - but maybe someone else has picked up on something Nate the superbrain and Darius Crowbat have missed- namely that the Olympics like the Obamas are the antithesis of McCain. The O's are about 'faster, higher, stronger'- good on the flip-flop (offshore drilling), the marathon (vs Clinton) and the cycling road race (always remembers his helmet-the dweeb!) while McCain is kinda 'slower, lower and weaker', - can't lift his arms above his head, useless on the parallel bars, etc. McCain surely if he has any brains ought to be pretending that the next month of sporting excellence is not happening.
Obama's milquetoast response to the Georgian crisis is very disconcerting.
Thanks for your concern!
Obama's response was exactly in line with that of the State Department, and pretty much the whole of the rest of OSCE, NATO and the other (non-Russiam or Russian-controlled) members of the Security Council.
The one out of step with the whole rest of the world was McCain, who seems to beat the drums for a global nuclear war everytime someone in the world steals someone else's lunch money.
I did see the McCain ad run at 2:30 in the morning last night while mens volleyball was on in a suburb of Orlando, Florida. So I think the ad ran everywhere.
Hopefully Obama can combat all the lies McCain has thrown at him recently
There are going to be continual attack on Obama from now through election night.
These Olympic ads are very, very soft. They do not mention William Ayers and the Pentagon bombing. They don't mention Reverend Wright or Father Phleger or Michelle Obama or Black Muslim leader Louis Farrankahn or racketeer Tony Rezcko.
David Bossie will be coming out with his Obama film at the GOP convention and that is when the real campaigning will begin.
AntiTroll Prescription
New and improved
Rx Copyright 2008
1. Do not read troll posts
2. Do not read troll posts
3. If you accidentally read a troll post, douse troll with buckets of humor. DO NOT TAKE TROLL SERIOUSLY.
4. Cease reading troll posts
5. Request Nate add moderator to site to keep commenters honest and on-thread.
6. Do not read troll posts
7. Repeat liberally (pardon the pun)
:)
I thought of something earlier tonight watching the beginning of night's Olympic coverage. Trying to connect celebrity with shallowness/etc is a bad idea during the Olympics. Many athletes competing are celebrities, and are so for good reason.
With Americans cheering on our athletes with "U-S-A!", its basically the same cadence as "O-Ba-Ma!" This came home particulary just now as the US men beat the tough talking french in the freestyle relay with a stunning .08 sec lead. McCain's commercial ran in the next break - that's really bad timing if all the US fans are at home cheering, especially if its the above mentioned U-S-A.
I tend to agree with Nate on this one. It is important in advertsing to marry your message to the medium.
Hopeful positive ads would have been a better choice, but perhaps McCain's strategists are seeing something that others are not.
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