Fresh numbers in from Gallup show Barack Obama emerging with a 6-point lead over his Republican rival.
Rasmussen does not yet show a discernible bounce -- their poll still has the race tied. But they also hint that, based on a review of their day-by-day results, an Obama bounce may be coming:Reviewing recent single-night polling data—rather than the three-day average--shows that Obama lost ground immediately following the selection of Joe Biden as his running mate. That had little or nothing to do with Biden and everything to do with the fact that the running mate was not named Hillary Clinton. The impact of that choice was reflected in the polling results released Tuesday and Wednesday showing modest gains for McCain.
A quick note: the conventional wisdom is that firms that weight by party ID, such as Rasmussen, will tend to show less of a convention bounce than those that don't, since some of the purpose of a convention is to sell the brand of the party rather than the candidate, which may result in short-term (and presumably short-lived) shifts in party identification.
However, events are moving rapidly this season and the impact of the convention is starting to replace the impact of the Vice Presidential announcement. New polling data shows that 74% of Democrats say their convention has unified the party and 84% believe Hillary Clinton’s speech will help Obama in the fall.
Obama’s poll numbers have improved over the past couple of nights and today’s update shows a tie race because it includes a mix of both recent trends. But it seems likely that Obama will end the convention with a modest lead over McCain. Then, of course, it will be time for the Republican Vice Presidential pick and, next week, the GOP convention.
Still, Obama has to be feeling pretty good about those Gallup numbers, as one-third of the interviews in their current sample are effectively pre-convention (conducted on Monday before Michelle Obama's speech), and essentially none of them will reflect either Bill Clinton and Joe Biden's speeces yesterday nor Obama's performance at Invesco Field tonight.
8.28.2008
Gallup Shows an Initial Convention Bounce for Obama
@ 1:35 PM
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A few people above have tried calculating the daily polling results from Gallup and Rasmussen. Using a slightly dampened version of the "obvious" formula back to the beginning of July gives me these estimates of the numbers from the last 8 days:
Rasmussen
Date M O Margin
08/20/08 47% 48% 0%
08/21/08 47% 50% 2%
08/22/08 44% 45% 0%
08/23/08 46% 49% 3%
08/24/08 44% 49% 5%
08/25/08 44% 46% 2%
08/26/08 48% 43% -5%
08/27/08 48% 48% 0%
Gallup:
08/20/08 43% 45% 2%
08/21/08 44% 45% 2%
08/22/08 45% 45% 0%
08/23/08 44% 47% 4%
08/24/08 46% 43% -3%
08/25/08 48% 42% -6%
08/26/08 40% 49% 9%
08/27/08 39% 52% 13%
So no discernible bump in Rasmussen (except when comparing Tuesday to Wednesday), but a 13% one in Gallup. Note that the precision of the estimates are quite bad - any number in a 3 point interval will give the same rolling average - AND these can add up for the margin. Still, it is almost certain that Obama polled above 50% yesterday.
The Ayers ad will stop the bounce. It will be the "Swiftboat Ad" of 2008.
SEDI
I agree about trying to stick to factual info in posts & remaining on point.
Normally when I get dragged into the VP speculations I try to back up my bpositions with polling data.
For instance, a recent pollin MN [not sure now if it was the Star & Trib or the MPR/UofMN poll] showed that if Mccain picked TPaw it would actually appear to be counter-productive & help Obama win MN because it would push the INDs toward Obama. That was interesting & factual & would seem to undermine any great reason to pick Tim if the purpose was to help with swing/IND voters...
For Romney I have not seen the MI polling on him, but since he campaigned in the primaries this year I think polling on him is all name recognition so I discount it's value [same as it was for Giuliani].
For Christ & Lieberman in FL the polling is so bad if he picks them that McCain would have to be insane since he probably cannot win w/o FL.
I would 'guess' that his maverick stance will be to counter with the best woman he can find stategically who does no harm. Who ? Fiorina & Whitman - would you say they are 'qualified' ? I would not emphatically. Rice ? baggage... Hutchinson is experienced & would be harder to attack directly - but the age issue thing would be tough...
Huckabee - makes no sense if he really wants to try to win IMHO.
circles back to Romney maybe ?
But since they have a 'unity' rally in OH & MO on Friday, these rumors that people have cleared their calendars is just plain silly...
Woooo there buddy, don't be calling me no ass!
DCM in FL-well enough said about you the better, go back to eating your cheetos and drinking Dr Pepper, E pony mous-think about it real hard..
VCON,
You are correct, Kerry went before Congress and accused his fellow soldiers in Vietnam of rape and torture on the same scale as Gengis Khan-he also threw away his medals, although I think that was really symbolic-anyho0000se, his fellow brothers in arms took care of him during the 2004 election.
Let it be a lesson to those who go to war, remember you serve with other people and they will remember.
I think this is why McCain's story is so incredible, everybody he served with called him a great hero.
MULE HEAD
then why are you on here posting ?
spare us... take a vacation.
Woooo there buddy, don't be calling me no ass!
DCM in FL-well enough said about you the better, go back to eating your cheetos and drinking Dr Pepper, E pony mous-think about it real hard..
VCON,
You are correct, Kerry went before Congress and accused his fellow soldiers in Vietnam of rape and torture on the same scale as Gengis Khan-he also threw away his medals, although I think that was really symbolic-anyho0000se, his fellow brothers in arms took care of him during the 2004 election.
Let it be a lesson to those who go to war, remember you serve with other people and they will remember.
I think this is why McCain's story is so incredible, everybody he served with called him a great hero.
Daniel,
Thank you for the explanation. I have to say that as someone who has been a Republican all my life, even to the point of marching up and down at a polling place with a sign for a Rep Presidential candidate of my own volition before I hit my 7th B'day, I have never doubted the superiority of Rep politics.
To me it is a simple matter of limited government, low taxes and a muscular foreign policy.
Ronald Reagan was the apotheosis of American leadership in the 20th Century, surpassing even Franklin Roosevelt (FDR had more to work with, so his successes seem grander).
It is easy to see what attracted you to the Party.
And reasonable to see what repels you. Bush has made a hash of things on the domestic front by not reining in out of control spending. He tends to wear his faith too much on his sleeve, but his heart seems to me in the right place (I am a pro-life absolutist and believe that that the attempts to preserve Terry Schiavo’s life, while raising difficult questions of personal liberty within the confines of marriage, was a heroic effort in the service of moral order -- to answer one issue you raise.
I think 911 was the transformative event of the new century and its effects will linger for years. It brought home the truth of the threat of Radical Islam to our very survival as a nation and a culture. I am glad we went to war in Iraq b/c we were able to turn the terrorist eye away from America and Europe for the most part and we bought the battle to them where they live. Afghanistan is a side show, a mopping up operation. Iraq is where it is at. With its vast oil reserves and its central location in the heart of the Middle East. We have every reason to want to see it succeed as a democracy as we have every reason to want to maintain our troops there.
Consider the lessons of the two World Wars.
Many have no doubt forgotten that Europe during the first half of the 20th century was a divisive place filled with balkanized states and alliances that bore great enmity towards each other.
Consider that it was barely 20 years after the end of World War One that the Europeans were once again tearing each other asunder. It took US intervention in both cases to end the conflicts and finally a permanent US presence to win the peace.
Woodrow Wilson believed that the US had no business meddling in European affairs after victory had been achieved following WWI and with the signing of the Armistice that ended the War he left.
His assessment proved disastrous and lead to the loss of millions of lives.
We did not repeat that mistake at the end of the Second World War and our positioning of US troops in Germany and the creation of the military alliance, NATO, contributed mightily to the downfall of the Soviet Union and can be said to have lead the creation of the present European Union.
I think this history is instructive in dealing with Iraq. We may have suppressed the violence in Iraq but peace there will be fragile. Abandoning the Iraq’s to their own devices may seem the “democratic” thing to do, respectful of Iraqi sovereignty, but I think we owe a duty to the people of Iraq to remain and help secure not only their elevation among the ranks of democratic nations, but the stability of the region in general.
Having s substantial US presence on Iraqi soil would be a good investment in assuring stability in the Middle East and would surely act as a check on the ambitions of Iran and other provocateurs in the neighborhood.
With Iraq’s oil reserves and our need to assure a continued supply of fossil fuels until we can bridge ourselves to some sort of alternative energy, much is at stake.
As far as Atwater et al. goes, tactics are tactics. And for me the end justifies the means. To a point. I have never seen that line really crossed. Except perhaps with Rathergate and the attempt by CBS and the NYTs to use forged documents to impugn Dubya's military service.
Willie Horton was an aggressive ad. I think it was from a 528 or other PAC. But the point had to be brought home. Dukakis was a left wing ideologue, trying to mask, as Obama is doing now, his extremist views.
The problem for me with the Democrats is that these folks know they cannot be elected if they reveal their true selves to us, so they portray themselves in a way that is non-threatening. The danger is that they may attempt to govern where their hearts lie. Obama is a product of a left-wing ideology and upbringing. He has associated with Marxists and others antithetical to America. None of this has been explained and so I must conclude he is another in a long line of Democrat Manchurian candidates who must be stopped.
Gore—An Enviro-Nazi (oops! I lose!)
Kerry – a fake War hero with a Gallic sense of liberal superiority.
Hillary -- worse!
Bill Clinton was adaptable enough to his own ambition and was forced to conform to political reality so that he managed to serve two terms without creating great damage, except to the moral authority of the office he held.
Forgive the rant; I just wanted to offer some perspective.
MR-
...and it's also safe to say that I won't give one fat rat's ass about anything he has to say
And yea, the earth kept spinning, the sun kept lighting the earth, and bears kept shitting in the woods.
I am 47 yrs old. Lived in Michigan my whole life. The Romney name has absolutely no cache for anyone 55 yrs or younger. If his name was Miliken, it might be a different story.
The notion that Mitt Romney does something for McCain here in Michigan is silly.
Michigan is blue.
For example:
"Consider Bernadine Dohrn, Ayers' wife and the co-host of Obama's career-launching fundraiser. When she was in the Weather Underground she was one of those members typically fascinated with Charles Manson (I discuss this briefly in my book). Speaking of Manson's famous murders she exclaimed, "Dig It! First they killed those pigs, then they ate dinner in the same room with them, they even shoved a fork into a victim’s stomach! Wild!” In appreciation, her Weather Underground cell made a threefingered “fork” gesture its official salute..."'
Can you trust someone with radical assocations like that to lead?
Maybe Obama can make a "three fingered fork" gesture as a salute tonight.
Aha, Darien I understand now. When Mitt said McCain had no vision, that was because he wasn't Republican enough, when Romney called out McCain on his "timetable" attack on Romney, it's because McCain wasn't Republican enough, when Romney spent millions in ads bashing McCain it was because he thought McCain was not Republican enough. Gosh darn it and I thought that Mitt was pro-choice up until what two, three years ago? Now I understand that Mitt Romney became a governor of a state like Massachusetts because he WAS Republican enough.
You are right it sounds so much better that a "former" pro-choice governor of top blue state in the nation is calling out a Republican nominee for not being Republican enough? Yup, much better. Makes sense too.
Nis, good to have you back. Could you please publish your entire sequences? And explain in discursive form what your formula is?
Also, I think you may have had some typo with your Rasmussen numbers - basically, you did not study the last day of polling? Your big drop comes at the penultimate term of the series, but clearly from the 3-day averages the big drop must come at the antepenultimate term of the series. This may be why you don't see a Rasmussen bump?
joe @ August 28, 2008 12:57 PM said...
They used to run ads for bronze busts of George Bush in National Review magazine. He declared that God chose him to lead America during 9/11.
You funny.
************
The scary part of this was that it was his closest advisors who were buying into this thing - he might have had a successful presidency (or better one) if he had surrounded himself with people who would not only give him good advice, but an open dialogue. Instead he ran more sober minds out of his inner circle. Very happy to know that Obama recognizes a need to have an Honest Joe by his side.
DCM said...
"For Christ & Lieberman in FL..."
I think a VP pick of Christ would pretty much sew up the election for McCain, safe to say.
Of course, if Obama had picked Jesus, well, I can almost see the press release now:
"In response to Obama's choice, the Republican national committee issued the following press release: 'Senator Obama's pick of Mr. Christ, a public figure with very little executive experience and politics leaning far to the left of most Americans, only reinforces Obama's own glaring flaws.'"
MASON
I thought you were going to the game ?
don't get bogged down on here as they are out in force on this thread...
"The Ayers ad will stop the bounce. It will be the "Swiftboat Ad" of 2008."
Hope you enjoy the "McCain isn't really a war hero" ads. Talk about a balloon waiting for a pin.
DCM-
Crap. Day game?
*checks schedule*
Nope. 7:10 start time.
"My bet is not that Ayers will stop the bounce but when Obama goes on a lengthy "Chicken Little" diatribe about how terrible the economy is and how terrible everyone is doing...and then it's shown he is a big liar who is only saying those things for political expediency."
Absolutely! McCain should show his confidence in the non-recession and non-problems Americans are having by choosing Phil Gramm as his VP.
EPONYMOUS
funny riff on the typo. yeah, I tend to typr Christ rather than Crist because we know him as CHang Gang CHarlie here in FL, so the 'h' just pops up almost by itself.
lord knows he is no jesus or christ-like fellow. but CHarlie is still supposedly planning on marrying his beard in December so you never know... miracles can happen !
Obama will get a convention bounce, then McCain will get a convention bounce, then a week out everyone will get a good idea where the race is too.
The election has turned into a battle between two entirely different styles of campaigns. Forget the two candidates for a moment. The Obama campaign is a results driven ground game designed to turnout voters at record levels and win the necessary electoral votes on election day. The results of this effort are hard to see, and thus hard to measure until election day.
The Republican campaign is a relentless media driven campaign designed to win news cycle after news cycle and push their narrative upon voters through the 24h news outlets. This effort has been very effective through the summer and we even see it on display this week with the Hillary Clinton ads which are an effort to push media coverage towards the divide in the democratic party.
This type of campaign can be measured easily as we see the results in the polling numbers on a daily basis. Most pundits would agree the Republican campaign has been very successful this summer and has drawn the race to a dead heat.
Tonight's activities at Invesco field are a perfect example of this different strategy. While Senator Obama delivers his acceptance speech, the republican campaign will issue commercials by Senator McCain himself rebutting Obama during the Obama speech,and probably leak their VP pick as well all in an effort to derail the democrats moment. This is very smart politics and exactly the M.O. of this campaign. The combination of tactics used by the McCain campaign will most likely be effective at diminishing Obama's bounce and help the media narrative for McCain.
While the media takes all this in tonight, the Obama campaign is doing something probably more important than his acceptance speech and it will get virtually no media coverage at all. They will hold a training session at Invesco field filled with 40000+ supporters on registering and turning out voters. The Obama campaign believes this may be the difference in winning a tight election in Colorado this November, but again,we have no idea to the effectiveness of this effort until election day.
In truth, we the public and pundits have no idea who is actually winning this race right now. Certainly the McCain camp has dominated news coverage and election narrative and has the punditry convinced Obama is getting whipped. It certainly appears that way. But because Obama's campaign strength can not be measured, we must hold judgment. Thus far the Obama campaign has remained relatively confident in their strategy while the democratic faithful get very nervous.
I would suggest as long as Obama remains cool and relaxed in the face of these attacks he believes he's in good shape and ahead in this election. However, if we see a shift in campaign tactics, and a push back to the McCain media blitz, then that would be a sign of McCain has indeed taken the lead and Obama is changing strategy.
"Keep the 'zingers' coming at me and show how much of a lonely, sad ass you really are. Pat yourself on the back, suck your own pecker, and have yourself a big bowl of ice cream, because that's the only thing going for you in this world," says the man who starts every thread talking about masturbation. Who's lonley now?
[hehe... You still respond while pretending not to. It's so cute.]
A Riposte
I haven’t read all the comments and usually ignore DCM's provocation, but I have never even come close to asserting that "liberal baby killers should go straight to hell" or whatever DCM wrote about me. The Jesus that loves me has taught me to forgive. The only judgment that counts is God's judgment. This stuff is too complex. All I want to do is agitate for the dignity of ALL human life . . .
Daniel, You are obviously a thoughtful person and are searching for reason. You may be in the wrong place.
I am too much of a partisan to show my hand at times, but I do like to see reason and always respect it.
As for me and VC. It's a big tent. He is provocative and comes from things from a just and correct perspective. That he gets under your skins just shows how good he is. That he does so in short, pithy posts shows how he is better'n me!
MASON
MR has a big-time man crush on you.. are you flatterred ?
dcm,
I couldn't resist.
Seriously though, that poll in Florida does seem to reinforce the idea that Crist just ain't happening.
I think he'll go with Romney because he's the least likely to do any harm. But it's too bad for him that he doesn't have a more aggressive play to make - he needs to do so at this stage.
"My apologies to the rest of you for the unsavory comments. They were directed at very few people (actually only one) who think it's their sole duty in life to be a close-minded smart ass on everything and have to make ridiculous comments about anything I say even when everyone else doesn't seem to care."
This means so much coming from someone who daily calls the owner of the site he's posting on a 'wanker'.
Grow up.
MR-
Clearly, you cannot see through your hatred. Here's the MR Closed Captioning of my response at 2:44:
"So what? This is to be expected."
MR-
Good thing I'll be cremated!
PeteKent,
That was a real inspiring post about post war Europe.
Unfortuanatly, you have made it to people whose main colors, are REd, BLue and Yellow.
REd, the blood they would never shed for their country, blue, for the ocean they would never cross for the defense of their country, and yellow, the obvious streak down their back!
Mule Rider,
You are correct! I think most of the bloggers on this post are still living with Mommy.
They don't know how to go out in the world and make a living. They sit around on their computer, bought for them by Mommy, hoping Obama will give them a job and if no job then health care and welfare.
The best day in their life will be when they get a paycheck and actually see how much money Uncle Sam really takes from a grown up!!
By the way DCM in FL,
University of Florida will not win the SEC this year, it looks like LSU all the way-read that and weap!
There was a time when this site was filled with smart conversation and it was easy to find comments very thoughtful and well written. However, it is like that no longer. Its actually quite sad.
"Fuck off. Given the chance, I'd spit on your rotting carcasses."
LOL... another 'compassionate conservative' speaks.
Go start a war or something.
There is as much navel-gazing here as there is at a Democratic Convention!
Must we focus on oursleves when there are candidates and polls to pore over?
Do i need to repeat for the thrid time my post, "A Division More Apparent Than Real"?
If I do I earn another roll of stickers.
"Red, the blood they would never shed for their country, blue, for the ocean they would never cross for the defense of their country, and yellow, the obvious streak down their back!"
How much blood did Bush and Cheney spill for their country?
I mean their own, not that of the thousands of kids whose lives they stole with their war profiteering lies.
Must we focus on oursleves when there are candidates and polls to pore over?
Are there any new polls today? Other than trackers, of course.
Do i need to repeat for the thrid time my post, "A Division More Apparent Than Real"?
If I do I earn another roll of stickers.
It's a free country. I'd save your points for the McCain/???? toaster oven, though.
EPONYMOUS
personally I wish that McCain would pick Crist anyway as this state would be better off without his terrible lack of real leadership.
McCain should actually win FL [unfortunately] unless he does some real dumb move or major gaffe. FL is still run by the GOPers & they admittedly have a political edge. I live in the swing area of central FL [aka the I-4 corridor]. SO FL is heavily DEM, NO FL [aka south GA & south AL] is heavily GOP. We are 50/50, god help us. And I live in the infamous 'Volusia County' that helped Bush win through electronic fraud in 2000...
But if Obama wins here the election will be a landslide as far as EVs. [IMHO]
Seriously VACon, you can break character now. We're on to you, buddy!
I never denied that JK said what you claim, which, again, you must know. Plant. The zombie lie I mentioned is that soldiers returning home from Viet Nam were spit on. Total lie. "No evidence whatsoever" as you would put it, I think.
You're right Jason.,
Instead, Bill Ayers and his wife gave them a three-fingered "fork" salute in appreciation!
John McCain's Health Care Plan:
Goodman, an advisor of Sen. John McCain who helped craft the Republican candidate's health care policy, told Jason Roberson of the Dallas Morning News that the problem is one of semantics.
"So I have a solution. And it will cost not one thin dime," Mr. Goodman said.
"The next president of the United States should sign an executive order requiring the Census Bureau to cease and desist from describing any American – even illegal aliens – as uninsured. Instead, the bureau should categorize people according to the likely source of payment should they need care.
"So, there you have it. Voila! Problem solved."
http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/08/28/politics/horserace/entry4391954.shtml
It's also all over the internets.
This is so stupid, it could only come from a neocon. One of the primary REASONS that health care costs are out of control (and represent an increasingly heavy drag on businesses and industry in this country) is BECAUSE uninsureds, underinsureds and illegals seek their care from over-burdened, mostly urban, emergency rooms. It is an incredibly inefficient and costly way to provide care.
That said, I have always been irritated that the Democrats talk about "Universal Health Care". It's really all about Universal Health COVERAGE, which will actually reduce the overall health care costs in this country, since the way we provide Universal Health Care now is so costly and inefficient.
JACK B.
hey bud, thanks for the shout. I will play nice if you will, OK ?
Anyway, sorry but I actually agree with you on UF football. Tim Tebow alone cannot make the Gators great, and the last 2 years they were 'lucky' more than good.
I am not a gator fan. I live in UCF & FL State territiory, not in the gator swamp areas.
But my football allegiences are to USC Trojans #1 then UCLA Bruins #2 [since I lived in LA for 20+ years], and then the old hometown team U of MN Gophers...
USC Trojans will be #1 best team in the country [just like always] assuming they beat VA & OSU in the next few weeks.
Then in January they will kick themselves some GA Bulldawg butt for the BCS
www.obamataxcut.com
Spread the word - Obama's tax cuts will exceed McCain's if you are not wealthy.
Go Democrats!
Romney said in the primaries that McCain isn´t a conservative.
"If the New York Times support you, you´re not a conservative" (Mitt Romney dixit).
And he was right, McCain is a rat.
SEDI
I for one appreciated your ID polling data - what was it the Larry Craig poll ?
My question was can you provide a link for the internals & crosstabs ?
how many were polled & in what manner & where ? in-person at airport bathrooms by foot-tapping responses perhaps ?
as Idaho goes so goes the potato...
John McCain's neocon war has killed far more American kids than Bill Ayers ever did.
"the conventional wisdom is that firms that weight by party ID, such as Rasmussen, will tend to show less of a convention bounce than those that don't"
I have to say that it amazes me that so much of the electorate is on the fence to the point that they can be influenced by any of these daily events.
The only scenario that rings true is that there were a lot more deeply diehard Hillary supporters than I imagined. Her speech was the only thing I've seen so far that could explain that kind of a jump.
By the end of the primaries I was vehemently anti-Hillary but that speech actually brought tears to my cynical eyes - twice.
dcm,
Yeah I think it's very, very unlikely that Obama will take Florida as well. He sunk a lot of money into it because, and I think the electoral math supports this position, McCain really is toast if he loses it. Unfortunately for him it looks like that money could have been better spent in Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado.
It will be interesting to see any shifts in the campaigns' strategies post-convention. I expect to see a narrowing of the focus to those three states in addition to Nevada, New Hampshire, and maybe Michigan if McCain tries for a game-changer play as well.
humanist, you are right that I was missing the last bit of Rasmussen polling. You, on the other hand, seem to be labelling as "Wed" both the polling released by Gallup on Wednesday and Rasmussen on Thursday.
Now, as for my methodology, if Ri denotes the number released on day i, my estimate E(i) is calculated as follows:
E(1) = R1
E(2) = R2
E(i) = (1 + 2x)Ri - x(E(i-1) + E(i-2)) for i>2
Where x is a constant between 0 and 1.
If x=1 this is the "obvious" formula for unrolling the average. A smaller constant means that rounding errors don't build up as easily, but tends to slightly understate swings.
Testing on a generated dataset (a random walk with a tan/arctan transform) seemed to indicate that a value somewhere between 0.6 and 0.8 does a good job at reducing the average error. I'm currently using a value of 0.7.
obsessed,
Well, the polls that were taken starting yesterday will probably reflect the impact of Hillary's speech, so those will be released in the coming days and into the weekend. Then we'll see to what extent it had a unifying effect.
Personally I thought the speech was pretty damn good too. She went as far as she possibly could have while remaining sincere, which is all you can ask.
It's sad that such an intelligent blog has become an arena for these lowly barbarians to whine and quarrel.
Gallup's numbers tend to be pretty volatile, and Rasmussen pretty stable when compared to other daily trackers.
Have you guys seen the new McCain ad where he congratulates Obama... a flash of 2000 McCain that I used to like.
DCM And Jack Black -
USC won't beat Ohio State. Though the game is in LA which should give USC an edge, I think Ohio State has an axe to grind about being shout down twice in the National Championship (by two SEC teams, no less!)
As for LSU winning the SEC - with what quarterback?? Auburn's gonna win the SEC, just you wait. War Eagle!
Damn I'm glad college football season is upon us.
EPONYMOUS
well the Obama investment in FL might still pay off as it at least gives DEMs hope & motivation.
Obama came into Orlando last week to speak to the VFW convention - but it went overly poorly in relating to the FL voters IMO.
But Hill was here last Thursday for 3 key campaign stops. She did well enough & got positive buzz for pre-cpnvention.
IF Obama makes some majot effort here in person [since he did not campaign here for the primary] plus if Hill & Bill as well as Biden work the state soon & often for the next 2 months then Obama can win with about 48% to McCain 47% if Barr can pull off 3% and Nader + others get 1-2%.
Fortunately, Obama probably would not need 50% to win a tight one so he could do it. The ground game here is in place & I get noticed on local contacts & events all the time - even at my local library this weekend for a voter registration meeting. And I live in a small city of just 20,000 - not near Orlando.
Obama has put up lots of TV ads this summer in FL, and those seem to have softened the audience for his message as intended but not yet swayed them from UND - yet stabilized a solid base in FL of over 40% + if the Clinton hold-outs come back then he can get to 48-49%. IMO
It seems most have tuned off already but I wanted to point out, on topic and usefully, that I am pretty convinced, having checked the numbers, Nis made a typo and omitted the last Rasmussen night (probably he got confused and treated Rasmussen publication dates as polling dates). If so, I calculate from his numbers last night's Rasmussen's numbers to get the following series:
Date M O Margin
08/19/08 47% 48% 0%
08/20/08 47% 50% 2%
08/21/08 44% 45% 0%
08/22/08 46% 49% 3%
08/23/08 44% 49% 5%
08/24/08 44% 46% 2%
08/25/08 48% 43% -5%
08/26/08 48% 48% 0%
08/27/08 46% 50% 4%
Gallup:
08/20/08 43% 45% 2%
08/21/08 44% 45% 2%
08/22/08 45% 45% 0%
08/23/08 44% 47% 4%
08/24/08 46% 43% -3%
08/25/08 48% 42% -6%
08/26/08 40% 49% 9%
08/27/08 39% 52% 13%
On the simplest assumption, that tonight's polling would match yesterday's, tomorrow's trackers should show:
Rasmussen M47 O49
Gallup M40 O51
The predicted Gallup number is uncannily similar to their Berlin Bounce figure. This is Obama's ceiling which is apparently unchanged.
The predicted Rasmussen number is actually a 3-point margin masked by rounding, and is due to expand to +4 the day after - plus/minus the combined Obama speech / Rep VP effect.
Jack-be-nimble said that "registered voters don´t vote". There is some truth in there. This polling model doesn´t take into account that newly registered voters are much more likely to actually vote than already registered voters. So I guess that the "real" numbers are even more in favor of Obama than seen here. Let´s see, Rasmussen´s model is always a bit lagging behind and not as fluctuating. It depends on the nature of the bounce Obama is receiving right now.
We have always known that a united Democratic Party will give Obama a huge advantage, and party unity was where he was lagging behind. Luckily, the Clintons helped Obama in the best way possible and that rift between the major figures will not break up again.
It remains to be seen how many independents will stay with Obama after the Republican Convention. The Republicans will have a terribly hard job to excite their base and appeal to independents. If George W. Bush receives as much coverage as Bill Clinton did, that task will be very, very hard. I can only see 2 Republicans playing on the same level as the Clintons: Arnold Schwarzenegger and Mike Huckabee, and both of them significantly differ from McCain´s platform in a way that Hillary and Obama did not.
Interesting projections from the posters here. It seems safe to say that there was a little Biden-backlash that was covered up by the late announcement (and many thought a late announcement would mean that Hillary Clinton was going to be the pick...). It´s also safe to say that Michelle Obama was able to completely make up for that backlash.
TITO
well if OSU can beat the Trojans in the Colloseum, they will desrve to be #1.
But it is Pete Carroll at the helm at home, so I think not...
that is why they play the game, and I am hoping for a good show !
But the SEC is all about GA Bulldawgs - comeon !
I do not like them or their coach - but I do admit they are the SEC team to beat. LSU & FL are on fumes... Auburn ? not so much... why not TN or...AR... in that conference they will take each other out. IMHO
but I sure hope that OSU takes MI to the woodshed this year...
Nis, we were posting simultaneously. Many thanks, your comment helps! I apologize incidentally if my remark suggested you were careless. At any rate, let us rejoice in the bounce, such that it is.
And perhaps, if you have your own website, you can post your entire sequence there (or better still, several versions, with different values for x), so that we could study them at our leisure?
wow - Gallup polled on Hillary's speech and she got stellar results, even better than expected.
"Fifty-two percent of Americans -- and 83% of those who tuned in -- give Hillary Clinton's Tuesday night speech at the Democratic National Convention a positive review."
83% of those who watched is amazing, especially since there were INDs & GOPers among them...
"As would be expected, Democrats were especially positive about Hillary Clinton's Tuesday night address, with 69% rating it positively. But close to half of Republicans, 45%, also rated it positively.
The high 83% positive rating of the speech among those who watched it is in part due to the partisan nature of the audience. The poll estimates that 49% of those who watched the Clinton speech were Democrats, 22% were Republicans, and the remaining 28% were independents.
Ninety-four percent of Democrats who watched the speech rated it positively, as did solid majorities of the Republicans and independents who tuned in."
I'm not making this up
No, you're just repeating your right wing lies for the umpteenth time. We've seen Kerry's speech, we know about the Winter Soldier Investigation and the soldiers Kerry quoted (testimony is evidence, moron), we aren't drooling idiots who bark when someone blows their "anti-American" dog whistle -- we aren't Republicans or "conservatives" (aka assholes).
Virginia Conservative is a provacateur of the Limbaugh variety. No need to answer it, but its blatherings do provide marginally useful insights on what the other side will be throwing at the national lizard brain.
DCM -
Tennessee is becoming the perennial lackluster team of the conference and Arkansas is in a big time rebuilding year. Their backfield is decimated. Florida is better than LSU, but Tebow can't carry that team through this conference all by himself.
Auburn is hugely underrated this season. Even though they're top 15 in the polls, no one is talking about them. But all the fundamentals are in place and there's not a weak spot on the team, which is a credit to Tuberville's recruiting.
Georgia is stout this year, but like you pointed out, the conference beats up on each other way too much. The higher you're ranked, the harder you fall. Alabama is the complete dark horse of the conference this year, no one know what the hell to expect out of them.
I stand by my Auburn pick. Georgia's just too overrated.
John McCain's neocon war has killed far more American kids than Bill Ayers ever did.
In any case, Ayers isn't running for President and Obama has denounced his crimes; they aren't "friends" despite the Republican lies (oh so many). What kind of cretin is swayed by this sort of guilt by association? The kind that thinks that Fox broadcasts news, I guess.
Virginia Conservative is a provacateur of the Limbaugh variety.
Actually, Virginia Cretin is a typical Limbaugh consumer.
McCain...please...please pick Romney...this would be a gift to the Dems.
Why'd Ayers wife hold a fundraiser for Obama?
REd, the blood they would never shed for their country, blue, for the ocean they would never cross for the defense of their country, and yellow, the obvious streak down their back!
Obama has received nearly six times as much money as McCain from soldiers overseas, asshole.
Why'd Ayers wife hold a fundraiser for Obama?
Why did a bunch a white supremacists try to assassinate him, cretin? We can find all sorts of unpleasant people who support McCain or Obama. That only reflects badly on McCain or Obama if, like the typical "conservative", you have the IQ of a turnip.
If a white supremacist (or a wife of one) ever held a fundraiser for McCain, I wouldn't vote for him.
If a white supremacist (or a wife of one) ever held a fundraiser for McCain, I wouldn't vote for him.
You're an idiot and a liar; white supremacists hold fundraisers for McCain all the time. Apparently you are so fucking stupid that you think its only a fundraiser if the candidate is present. And you are so fucking stupid as to believe everything you read in World News Daily; Ayers' wife contributed $200 to Obama's campaign, but never hosted a fundraiser for him.
Oh, and I guess white supremacists showing their support for McCain by trying to kill Obama isn't nearly as bad in your book as holding a fundraiser.
Really?
Give the name of a white supremacist who held a fundraiser for John McCain.
I seriously doubt it since, you know, in the white supremacist movement they call him "Juan" McCain and think he's some kind of Mexican plant.
SEDI
I was kidding about the ID poll. Just an opportunity to take some cheap shots @ Craig & family values... sorry
I had already perused the ID poll through Pollster, but it appears pretty worthless in the internals, especially since they are an 'R'. It looks like they are pushing the GOPer senate candidate, but even in that race the DEM [LaRocco] has a shot at this point. Now that really would be something ! The internals for the senate race do not look too bad.
"Oh, and I guess white supremacists showing their support for McCain by trying to kill Obama isn't nearly as bad in your book as holding a fundraiser."
I'd bet money those nuts are voting Constitution Party. John McCain supports "amnesty" so they're not voting for him, sorry to burst your bubble.
VA CON
Ralph Reed held a fundraiser for McCain in Atlanta recently. But then Reed scurried away from it because McCain had the good sense not to be seen with him.
UGH
I'd bet money those nuts are voting Constitution Party.
Oh, well, it must be true if you would bet on it.
Meanwhile you're still a retarded lying sack of shit; Ayers's wife never held a fundraiser for Obama.
Give the name of a white supremacist who held a fundraiser for John McCain.
See
http://mccainduke2008.wordpress.com/
I seriously doubt it
No one gives a fuck what a shit-for-brains cretin like you doubts.
Oh really jqb? A blog?
Yeah that's totally the same as Ayer's wife holding a fundraiser for him that launched him into the State Senate! Completely the same!
http://www.stormfront.org/forum/showpost.php?s=d8f44f54f1fbe66ae16278a60b923dad&p=5724832&postcount=30
"Real White Nationalists back the White candidate - Senator John McCain for President"
While the majority of stormfront opposes McCain, there's plenty of support for him there. Not that such things are relevant, of course -- except to turnip brains like VA Cretin, but of course only if they can be used against Obama or libruls or the "Democrat" Party. What a despicable sack of garbage he is. I've had enough for today, and need to go take a long shower to clean it off.
Yeah that's totally the same as Ayer's wife holding a fundraiser for him that launched him into the State Senate!
Once again, she did no such thing, you stupid fucking lying asshole.
Daniel: Thanks for posting your political evolution. I think there are quite a few old-school conservatives (small gov't, balanced budgets, libertarian, FP realism) who are quite disenchanted with the modern R party (large gov't, reckless borrowing, increasingly authoritarian, FP "adventurism"). Part of your history I would quibble with, however:
Reagan was a fiscal conservative, tried and true. He was a gentleman who got tough when he needed to. But the Republican party became very fiscally irresponsible in the 90s ...
Reagan increased spending (mostly military) while cutting taxes, leading to ballooning deficits. The tax increase under Bush Sr helped turn the deficit around (I actually have some respect for him -- it cost him politically, but it was the right thing to do for the country), along with those under Clinton. Then through most of the 90s, Clinton and the R congress were at odds, with the result that spending increases were modest while the economy grew robustly, and the budget came briefly into surplus. Now of course we're back to cutting taxes while increasing spending and multiple wars, and the deficit is exploding again.
In short, Reagan may be the quintessential conservative in many ways, but he wasn't a fiscal conservative.
Probability McCain doesn't survive the next four years. (From SSA's actuarial life table @ http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/STATS/table4c6.html ).
1-((1-.032978)*(1-.036086)*(1-.039506)*(1-.43415))*100% = 14.36%
That's 1 out of 7 samples. Someone please explain how he can make a "maverick" pick in good conscience...oh wait, he's senile. No explanation necessary.
I think it's interesting that McCain is struggling to get 15,000 people to attend his VP announcement in Ohio, the day after Obama packs in more than 70,000. It's even more interesting that the largest McCain crowd so far as been only 3000 for the whole campaign to date.
BTW, the tickets to the McCain event are free, and they still can't 'sell out' the venue.
VirCon,
now Ayers' wife is a scary terrorist? No, she isn't. And Ayers was never convicted of anything. But you just want to "raise questions", not make any accusations. Perhaps the same boy who delivered newspapers to Ayers' house also delivered them to Obama's house. Did they shop at the same grocery store? Hmmm. Sure "raises questions", without meaning anything.
Did John McCain share the same area code as a child molester or meth addict? Hmmm. Certainly "raises questions", doesn't it? Why wouldn't he change his phone number or move, unless he wanted to associate himself with that kind of thing?
For those righties who keep saying,thinking McCain will get a bounce out of the GOP convention, think again.
Nobody cares about the GOP convention. Hell, most GOP don't dare about their convention (how many Senators are not going?).
McCain and company will basically be talking to themselves, and a vapid media wanting to sink Obama and boost McCain.
But unfortunately. Most people who haven't been following the campaign, will watch Obama's speech tonight, than watch any part of the dreadful republican campaign.
McCain at most; will get a temporary 2 point bounce out of his convention, if any at all (media complicity be damned)!
So a 1-day 5-pt bounce, on the same day that CNN shows Obama winning NV by 5 and losing Colorado by 1.
I'm going to just start ignoring individual polls and looking at the aggregate once a week.
I am a Yellow Dog DEMOCRAT.
I have been since 1988.
However, I think that liberals are making a mistake by not listening to people who have different views.
How the hell are you going to learn to beat them if you don't listen to them?
FWIW, all Obama needs to do to win is to get the Hillary voters to vote for him.
Let's hope that is what the swing in the polls was.
Regarding McCain's VP runningmate.
If McCain wants to win the 2008 Presidential Election this November. He needs to pick Tom Ridge as his VP runningmate. Ridge helps McCain in PA. McCain is favored to win FL. OH and MI are tossups- If McCain wins FL,PA,OH,and MI= plus 189ev Base. McCain becomes President without winning. VA,MO,CO,IA,NV,NM,and NH.
Ridge is pro choice so it is unlikely he will be McCain's runningmate. PA will go to Obama,thanks to Biden pick.
Regarding Romney- Romney helps McCain in MI(his Home state). assuming McCain wins FL,OH,and MI plus 189ev base. 253ev. McCain-Romney ticket needs to win VA and MO to win the White House. (VA and CO are trending Democratic and Obama won those states in the Primary and has a chance to win those States in the General election. That leaves NV and NH. Both of these states are trending Democratic. We give Obama NV McCain NH. Obama wins the WhiteHouse.
It is unlikely Pawlenty will deliver MN- the home of Humphrey,Mondale,McCarthy and Wellstone. MI,and NH will go to Obama.
Regarding McCain VP picks. (Ridge,Romney,and Pawlenty). Ridge is pro choice so it is unlikely he will be McCain's running mate. That leaves us Romney and Pawlenty.
CW is that Romney helps McCain in Michigan due to his family ties- George Romney was MI Governor 40 years ago and He was a moderate unlike Romney. MI is not going to McCain even with Romney on the Ticket. NH-(Boston Media)- Romney is not that popular in NH. CO and NV despite the Mormon Population is trending Democratic.
Pawlenty is not going to deliver MN. He almost lost re-election in 2006 had it not be for the gaffes of his Democratic opponent.
Regarding Biden- DE is part of the Philidelphia Media Market.
I believe it is obvious pandering to the female population of this state. Wil some women vote for McCain/Pallin just because he selected a woman? Sure, but I think at least an equal number will feel trivialized by his selection of an *unqualified* woman.
Additionally, many people are going back and forth on the abortion issue, as we all tend to do. However, I think the ultimate message is that Pallin is against ALL forms of abortion, including incest and rape. That means that if a 12 year old girl is raped by her father and becomes pregnant, that girl (in the eyes of Pallin) should be required to carry the baby to term and suffer even farther psychological damage than has already been done.
Please don't tell me this rarely happens, as I work in a school for teen moms/victims, and it happens. A lot.
Finally, few are mentioning her position on aerial shooting. That is, she is supporting the measures in Alaska to allow low-flying helicopters to shoot semi-automatic weapons into the wilderness to control a population of wolves, that are already endangered. How many innocent people and animals will be hurt in such a practice?
In today's society, we need leadership who will be pro-environment, not ignore the fact that global warming even exists.
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