Fresh numbers in from Gallup show Barack Obama emerging with a 6-point lead over his Republican rival.
Rasmussen does not yet show a discernible bounce -- their poll still has the race tied. But they also hint that, based on a review of their day-by-day results, an Obama bounce may be coming:Reviewing recent single-night polling data—rather than the three-day average--shows that Obama lost ground immediately following the selection of Joe Biden as his running mate. That had little or nothing to do with Biden and everything to do with the fact that the running mate was not named Hillary Clinton. The impact of that choice was reflected in the polling results released Tuesday and Wednesday showing modest gains for McCain.
A quick note: the conventional wisdom is that firms that weight by party ID, such as Rasmussen, will tend to show less of a convention bounce than those that don't, since some of the purpose of a convention is to sell the brand of the party rather than the candidate, which may result in short-term (and presumably short-lived) shifts in party identification.
However, events are moving rapidly this season and the impact of the convention is starting to replace the impact of the Vice Presidential announcement. New polling data shows that 74% of Democrats say their convention has unified the party and 84% believe Hillary Clinton’s speech will help Obama in the fall.
Obama’s poll numbers have improved over the past couple of nights and today’s update shows a tie race because it includes a mix of both recent trends. But it seems likely that Obama will end the convention with a modest lead over McCain. Then, of course, it will be time for the Republican Vice Presidential pick and, next week, the GOP convention.
Still, Obama has to be feeling pretty good about those Gallup numbers, as one-third of the interviews in their current sample are effectively pre-convention (conducted on Monday before Michelle Obama's speech), and essentially none of them will reflect either Bill Clinton and Joe Biden's speeces yesterday nor Obama's performance at Invesco Field tonight.
8.28.2008
Gallup Shows an Initial Convention Bounce for Obama
@ 1:35 PM
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I wonder how far his bounce will go. Time will tell.
I saw a interview with Plouffe that had him tearing his hair out at the poor quality of the dailies(especially Gallup) and many of the swing state polls.
Also they NEVER look at the top number. He said they drill into some breakdowns that tell them the real story. Any elaboration on that Nate?
First time in about 3 weeks that the libs have even a morsel of good news to hang their hat on.
Keep in mind that Gallup is still using registered voters and registered voters don't vote. Likely and Certain voters vote. It is mostly that reason that Ras has it a tie, not the party id.
Big deal. He's gone up 3 pts. in basically a week and half of hype.
He can't break 50%. He can't close the deal with the American people, and his posing as a Greek god tonight won't help things.
Barackcropolis!
I imagine tomorrow's and saturday night be pretty good too. I wonder if the leak or planned and much touted ad rebuttal by McCain will affect these.
So Nate--if it continues to show this trend and it is higher than 6 or Obama breaks 50, it means it was a good solid bounce?
Virg, you are a funny man.
These will be an interesting set of numbers over the next 12 days or so though.
I am not assuming there will be a big discernable bounce under the conditions this year with the conventions on top of each other + a major holiday.
So the huge Gallup swing today is surprising, as is the hint that Rasmussen gives that a bounce seems on the way.
But as Gallup noted in today's release, the +6 is a pre-bounce because:
"the final "official" post-convention bounce used in comparison with other recent conventions will not be tabulated by Gallup until interviewing for Friday through Sunday is completed (reported next Monday on gallup.com)."
so we will have to wait until the GOPer party starts to see where the DEM #'s shake out.
Still for a pollster who is +2 McCain 'house effect' such as Gallup today's news is of interest at least for a trend.
RR with a 'house effect' of +3 McCain starting to trend up already is also better than anticipated IMO.
Keep up the good work on the ground in Denver, Nate & Sean !
And if McCain choose Lieberman he´s a toast.
Wow that's a HUGE bounce! and it only comes after Hillary's speech. I'm wondering what it'll look like after Bill and Biden speech and Obama's walk on.
When I made that joke yesterday (overhyping Obama's jump from -2 to +1 in the Gallup in the style of PeteKent) I said that I expected Obama to be up +8 by Friday - picking a figure that I thought was far too high. With the jump he has shown (remember that the +6 is a three-day rolling average) he must have gotten more than +10 is yesterday's polling.
I will be surprised if my "prediction" were to come true, but I will not be shocked the way I would have been looking at it from yesterday.
Via Abinder--Pawlenty is canceling interviews for today. I think this is the beginning of the leak guys. By six we will know who it is or be close to certain.
So I guess Obama can use his speech to brand the ticket too.
The election will tilt further and further toward an Obama blowout. The repugs have a counter timing the next Biden gaffe, they could better be preparing for the next McCain hissy fit.
The Time magazine tantrum-interview shows McCain is not level-headed. He is an incontinent curmudgeon, who does not have the patience or judgment to handle unscreened interview questions, let alone be president. Americans are starting to see this clearly.
Good to know!
FYI Nate: Your link to Gallup is wrong (looks like it's pointing to the form to make posts on this blog! No luck guessing your password though =P )
@vc: 48% with 10% undecideds, it is fair to assume Obama breaks 50, not to mention in recent american presidential elections a candidate rarely breaks 50 before election night (take a look at ramusssen and Gallup polls for 2004 & 2000, bush almost never broke 50)
@moondancer: Do you have link to that interview?
If he's up to 51-52% and stays there for three days or so, I'll be worried Christopher.
Pawently?.
A boring man from a boring blue state.
He doesn´t help him.
This hints at a solid bounce in the (admittedly crappy) Gallup daily. Gallup doesn't release the actual daily numbers, only the 3-day average. However, given the stability of the trand before yesterday, it's probably a reasonable assumption that the individual daily numbers were probably around 45-45 for the last week or so. If that is the case, yesterday's numbers would need to have been something around 54-36 to push the 3-day average up to 48-42.
This may of course be all bunk, but the basic math would be pushing Obama up over 50 and McCain under 40. Still useless from a projection perspective, but very nice from a PR perspective.
Big deal? Maybe. The numbers themselves don't matter but the reasons for them changing could.
There were quite a few Clinton supporters holding out until the convention, and quite possibly waiting for the endorsements that Billary provided over the last two days. This is no big news to anyone, it's been discussed widely, and the Republicans have been gloating over it.
Well, it could be that this is coming to an end, and the same Republicans have now taken to whistling past the graveyard.
With two months to go anything can happen, but this could very well be more than just a convention bounce. And really, the Obama team hasn't even started going after McCain yet.
There it is. The One starts to show some life after spending a few hundred tons of cold hard cash on this Hollywood charade.
Better send roses and wet sloppy kisses to the Clintons for carrying the company water. Without their help this would not even be a contest. Don't count on any more from them because they will be doing all they can to ensure the One fails.
Grats on the bump libs... you're going to need it.
I'm not going to actually discuss it again, but for the record: four years ago, Bush stood on a circular stage almost identical to the one Obama will use, and yes, it had stately pillars behind it. Get over it. It's the norm.
Nate, you don´t put the Maxon-Dixon poll from Florida.
Has McCain even been above 45% in Gallup's poll? Talk about a ceiling! This election is about Obama, ultimately, and the convention has done wonders for him so far, just like Reagan in '80
Obama has been like kid's rubber ball -- it hits the ground (tied with McCain) goes up in the air (Obama +6 (e.g., Tour of Europe) and then falls back to the ground (tied with McCain). But, importantly, the ball never loses its air and it never gets stuck in the ground.
But, I wonder, can Obama finally get a lead and hold onto it or, dare I ask, increase a +6 lead to +10?
Anyway, hard not to hate a jerk like Rove. Out of the White House, no longer associated with any campaign, just another citizen like you and me and he decides to call a man dying of brain cancer, gets the man out of his sick-bed to write a political article that not only advocates against a potential GOP VP pick but the article also contains a Rove PLANTED LIE that the potential VP pick has agreed to call the GOP Pres nominee and withdraw his name from consideration. Of course, Lieberman called and said this was all a lie.
I think if Mr. Novak had a 'get to heaven' card he could present to St. Peter he just had it taken away -- printing lies while on your deathbed is not really an act of retribution.
For Mr. Rove, I doubt very seriously St. Peter will even let him get on line let alone through the pearly gates -- Mr. Rove is likely a living incarnation of a man who sold his sole to Lucifer quite a while ago.
Maybe he will hold a scepter while giving the speech.
Bush didn't have this warped personality cult, hija. When people agreed or disagreed with him it was on THE ISSUES, not because they thought he could make the waters stop rising.
First time in about 3 weeks that the libs have even a morsel of good news to hang their hat on.
See, I'm inclined to see "he's winning" as good news. Which is what the polls have shown every day for the past five months. I guess there's a "frog in hot water" effect here - that Obama is winning the election is so obvious and irrefutable that it's become the norm.
Keep in mind that Gallup is still using registered voters and registered voters don't vote. Oh, no, of course not. Only Uh-lee-gulls vote. Registered voters spend election day...uh...painting the house or something.
"I'm not going to actually discuss it again, but for the record: four years ago, Bush stood on a circular stage almost identical to the one Obama will use, and yes, it had stately pillars behind it. Get over it. It's the norm."
They know that.
They're neocons -- they're supposed to be hypocrites.
dario---I am not sure it is Pawlenty but I am sure they are trying to get a 'leak' going. For all we know it might be someone else. This after swearing up and down this morning he had not made up his mind. But I am sure we will hear tons of rumors about this in the afternoon.
Remember when those right wing nutballs awere literally saying prayers asking for rain on Obama's speech tonight?
I am not religious, but is it OK for me to pray for a CAT 5 hurricane to hit New ORleans next Tues. to ruin the week's news cycle for the repubs? Could someone also ask him to make a leveee or two fail?
and now Halperin putting out the other rumor (told you guys!) that Romney's family is getting a sec service security sweep.
Back to the numbers -
The real question is how many dems is Obama getting after all this. If it is 90%+ it becomes very hard for McCain to come up with a winning scenario.
Brad--please that kind of talk about New Orleans on the eve of Katrina is pretty low road. Don't even go there.
"his posing as a Greek god tonight"
I guess the historical significance of the night is lost on you trolls. Greek God? Actually the stage is a representation of the Lincoln Memorial to commemorate the historic speech given by MLK in front of said memorial. But keep up with the Greek thing if it keeps your blood flowing - if you know what I mean.
Brad, take a lesson from your candidate.
Bush didn't have this warped personality cult, hija.
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HAAAAA!!!
They used to run ads for bronze busts of George Bush in National Review magazine. He declared that God chose him to lead America during 9/11.
You funny.
I need to remind you jabulhabibSol79... 4 years ago George Bush was already the president and he never said anything like he was going to make the rising oceans slow and heal the planet.
Gimme a break.
DARIO
I actually agree with you on Lieberman.
so I hope John does pick him !
but Romney would probably be the best choice except that McCain despises him & probably not a great idea to pick a VP who is also extremely wealthy with multiple homes or that narrative will be the MSM meme for the next 2 months...
TPaw ? please pick him as he is such a Dan Quayle inexperienced lightweight who will not help win in MN or the midwest & Biden will pick him apart. No way is Tim P qualified for VP/POTUS, but at least he no longer is wearing a mullet...
Huckabee ? well they would win in the bible belt by even bigger margins, but lose all the battleground states so Obama would be assured 300+ EV - in other words appease the base but 'toss in the towel'...
It has to be Powell [be no real chance from what I hear] if he wants to win, or possibly a strong qualified woman by GOPer standards.
Who ? Rice - a risk since she is so tied to Bush & Cheney & the war ["mushroom cloud"], certainly not Palin, can't pick Collins or Snowe realistically, Hutchinson from TX would be McCain's best selection strategically IMO.
so I hope he picks Lieberman !
they will lose FL for sure if he picks Joe as the polling yesterday showed that 52% were opposed to it.
@lat: I really hope Halperin is right. I would love Romney as a vp, dems will have a field day with him. That is not to say pawlenty is any better either, he has that huge albatross of bridge collapse around his neck.
VC:
Do you really believe that 50% crap (Obama hasn't broken it so he's in trouble) or are you up to your frequent trick of posting stuff you know isn't true?
The meme about a candidate's being in trouble if (s)he can't break 50% has been used only for incumbents, who presumably are better known and have a more stable image with the public. It does not apply to Obama, one of whose problems is that he isn't that well known to the public.
Also, McCain can't break 45%. Whoat does that say about him?
With Barr and Nader and McKinney and Balwin in the race (Balwin, Nader and McKinney will likely not get more than 1% among them) in the end 49% will win the popular vote.
Regarding McCain's VP pick - why the lack of interest? I've seen almost no analysis, which is a bit of a surprise considering his age. Is Lieberman a silly choice? So they won't like him in the South but Mac doesn't need to pile-up votes there - he needs moderates who might like Lieberman.
So the Democrat Party will continue it's inability to get a majority in a national election I see.
So much for the great Democrat "re-alignment". Just getting elected by spoilers agian.
The contempt the Republicans are showing for the neo-classical/Federal Style of architecture favored by the Founding Fathers, which continues to define our public buildings and monuments, goes nicely with the contempt they show for the civil liberties and rights the Founding Fathers put into the Constitution.
Actually, I'd say the difference between the Lincoln Memorial and the Freedom Tower is the perfect metaphor for the difference between the drafters of the Constitution and modern "Republicans."
When did Bush ever declare he was going to heal the planet or stop oceans from rising?
Whether one liked or hated Bush was always on the issues, except for those liberals with BDS.
Better send roses and wet sloppy kisses to the Clintons for carrying the company water.
Anyone who believed they would do anything else was either trying to sell a story or a McCain supporter. The Clintons are professionals. And Democrats.
Snax--moderates do not like Lieberman because on the things that he is moderate he would have to promise to tout the Rep line (abortion for example) on the rest--Lieberman is a total neocon hawk. He has been more pro bush on foreign policy than some republicans so he is no moderate. Moderates just don't like him. (see Maxon Dixon poll which has it in black and white that choosing Liebreman would hurt his chances in Florida)
When did Obama ever say he was chosen by God to lead a crusade?
VC:
Considering that Bush won his first term despite having lost the popular vote and ending up signficantly under 50%, your comment is singularly off-base.
the funny thing about FAUX & the punditry talking about the audacity of the stage design using greek columns is that not only does it resemble Bush's GOP convention stage - but it is the 45th anniversary of the MLK 'I HAD A DREAM" speech in fron of the Lincoln Memorial in DC.
How could he NOT make a reference in homage to that tonight ? besides almost every government building in this country using greek columns, including the Supreme Court & Congress...
but really the haters are just publicizing the speech more for Obama which will get even more of the low-info voters to watch tonight. bad strategy giving the event even more of a buildup as 'must see tv'.
[copying from Biden thread because i hadn't seen this one when I wrote my post]
OK fuzzy math I admit...but just for grins lets say the three days polling for the gallup tracker poll, 2 days ago, in which Obama lead by -1 were:
-1, -1, -1
then yesterday it was Obama + 1, which means the three days results were
-1, -1, 5
today was Obama +6 so
-1, 5, 14(!)
so given yesterday's outstanding convention show - lets assume he at least matches yesterday's 14 (I know "outlier!" you cry) - but lets just assume. Then tomorrows poll will be made up of
5, 14, 14
whice means Obama +11!
So that's my prediction.
He won re-election in 2004 with 52% of the vote.
The Democrat Party hasn't won a majority of the popular vote since Saturday Night Fever.
Snax said...
"Regarding McCain's VP pick - why the lack of interest?"
Because McCain isn't an empty suit. We know he can step into the office and he doesn't need the help from anyone.
McCain's VP will be a respectable choice for who can take the office if need be. Nothing more.
When your candidate is John McCain, it become very important to make enthusiasm and charisma seem like bad things.
So, Virgnia Conservative, what did they name after Saint Ronald in your county?
The trolls getting paid $7/Hr get their talking points in the morning and run onto sites like 538 to spew the rhetoric. "Today's talking point will be the elaborate stage Obama will make his acceptance speech on".
Can any of these troll argue on substance? I mean really, come up with substantive reasons against Obama (that are factual) as a candidate and not this inane 'full of himself' conjecture.
And please, Bush acting as a common man, geez trolls, Bush actually told us in an interview that Jesus speaks to him. He believes in the end-of-days theory as it pertains to Israel when Christians rule the holy land and Jerusalem.
At the end of the day -- the trolls hate two things about Obama -- 1) he's a confident African-American man who is on the cusp of total power in the USA and 2) he's not a Republican confident African-American man who is on the cusp of total power in the USA.
I'll admit there's a personality cult around Reagan, but at least they waited until after he was out of politics and/or dead!
Obama hasn't even run a real campaign yet and already they're proclaiming him the Savior of America.
Wrong VC, he won with 50.7%
You know I used to be a Republican like you, but then dumbasses like yourself really turned me off. So thanks.
Solid number for Obama. Still, he needs to get that up to at least +10 as insurance against possible McCain veep & convention bounces.
And then the debates.
Darien (will eat) Crow:
yuo said: "4 years ago George Bush was already the president and he never said anything like he was going to make the rising oceans slow and heal the planet."
I know he didn't, but he should have. His failure to do anything signficant about those issues is one of the many reasons he will go down in history as one of our worst presidents (Buchanan must be turning over in his grave - he standing is threatened).
He's too popular! He's too smart! People like him too much! He's actually proposing bold things! He wants to heal the planet! Who does this guy think he is, a presidential candidate or something?
When THOSE are your talking points, you know you're in deep, deep trouble. It's equal parts amusing and pathetic.
Someone tell me something Obama has actually done besides being President of the Harvard Law Review (something he did a long time ago), being a "community organizer" (whatever the hell that means) and beating Alan Keyes in a Senate race?
Who the hell does he think he is running for President with a resume that thin?
McCain's top health care advisor on how to solve the health care crisis:
"The next president of the United States should sign an executive order requiring the Census Bureau to cease and desist from describing any American -- even illegal aliens -- as uninsured... So, there you have it. Voila! Problem solved."
Hahahaha. Uninsured Americans are a bunch of whiners!
My little brother, who is in the tax bracket that will take a hit, told me this morning he's decided to vote for Obama. He said. "you get what you pay for, and I'd rather take a tax hit than give the GOP another chance".
A lesson in intelligence for the trolls here.
VC,
You could spend 30 seconds googling and find pages of bills he's sponsored and worked hard to pass in both the Illinois and U.S. Senate. You're being willfully ignorant because you're not supporting him regardless of his experience, so you're lying to defend it. Enough.
Keep trying to move those goalposts, VaCon. "Obama's not going to win by enough! What kind of victory is that?"
And please, remove Nader from 2000 and we're celebrating year 8 of Al Gore's presidency. That "you only win with spoilers" bit is one of the whiniest things you've posted here, and that's saying a lot.
I'll say this, and never make a comment about the commenting itself again:
Yesterday, I noted how nice it would be to kick certain people off. Today, I'm thinking quantity AND quality are issues. If there were a way to limit people to three comments per 24 hours, maybe they're think a little before posting.
Hey Judas... If Obama wins I'll say congrats to you for your infinite wisdom and I will do all I can to make sure this country stays number one on the planet. I hope Obama can deliver on all his promises without destroying the greatest country ever.
But I don't believe he can do that and he's just leading you off a cliff. At least I'm not a sheep like you... but if he wins I do hope the best for us all.
I'll believe a bounce when I see it in the SuperTracker graph on this web-page and not an instant before then.
Adam-
I'd bet I'd find fifty times as many bills that McCain has sponsered and passed.
In addition to his brave service in Vietnam.
As Hillary said, she has a lifetime of experience to bring. Senator McCain has a lifetime of experience. Senator Obama has a speech he gave in 2004.
VA CON
it was real quiet on here last night after Kerry & Clinton & the Bidens + Obama rocked the house in Denver. very little if any noise from the right after the great evening.
so why all the sqawking on such petty issues today ? 1 real bad Gallup tracker poll brings out all the concern posts from the GOPers ?
you will get your own party next week. make the most of it !
COLORADO POLL RELEASE: Hill Research Colorado (8/23-24)By Eric Dienstfrey
Colorado
Obama 43, McCain 40
There is a pattern forming in the Southwest as CO, NM and NV are all moving towards Obama's victory column.
And Virginia Conservative, I swear, I am sure you take all of your talking points from whatever Sean Hannity says the night before (e.g., community organizer, beating only Alan Keyes, Harvard Law review). Please VC, do you have anything original to post?
Just saying what Hillary said for months and months.
Folks, the stupidity and dishonesty of the Rep trolls is so blatant that it's not even worth time rebutting.
McCain has just announced he is planning to parrot Obama to excite people about his VP pick, but instead of text message, he's planning to notify people of his VP pick by mail, that way you'll find out sometime after the GOP convention.
"So the Democrat Party will continue it's inability to get a majority in a national election I see.
So much for the great Democrat "re-alignment". Just getting elected by spoilers agian."
I know you're a Republican and all, but even you cannot really be THIS clueless, can you?
Your boy hero Dumbya got elected in 2000 with 47.9% of the vote. Guess you forgot about that?
No wonder McCain is keeping this race so close, thanks to, uh, the less informed among us.
I think that the bump will be a relatively late bounce in convention terms. I think that it will grow after last night and into friday, after Obama's speech. I don't exactly know how long it will last, but I am not sure McCain will lead again in this election campaign.
By the way Chet Edwatds for US Senate, or at least into the Democratic House Leadership.
VCon,
that's because McCain is like 95.
And I'm very grateful of his service, but I think that being his default answer for everything is getting a little annoying. He's starting to sound like Giuliani with 9/11.
"When did Bush ever declare he was going to heal the planet or stop oceans from rising?
Whether one liked or hated Bush was always on the issues, except for those liberals with BDS."
Healing the planet and stopping the rise of the oceans IS about the issues, albeit a poetic way of talking about them. If you believe that Global Warming is real and melting the icecaps, then cap-and-trade or carbon tax polices *are* "stopping the rise of the oceans".
Bush was never that flowery, but the closest analogous description he used was probably "freedom is on the march". If you believe in Democracy Promotion and democratic peace theory, you're inclined to believe this statement is literally true also.
It *is* fairly presumptuous rhetoric, but it is still talking "about the issues" and not either man's personality.
The Republican Party got a majority of the popular vote in 1972, 1980, 1984, 1988, and 2004. Four of those five were landslides.
Since 1968, the Democrat Party has gotten a majority exactly ONE time (1976, barely). With zero, ZERO landslide victories.
Losing record for a loser party.
Virginia Conservative said...
"Just saying what Hillary said for months and months."
Funny that you are not also saying what she & Bill are saying so forcefully now ! Fair & balanced...
"No way is Tim P qualified for VP/POTUS"
DCM,
Actually, I strongly disagree with you here. There is very little evidence to suggest that what we commonly call "experience" has any effect on the quality of the presidency. A brief glance at 20th century presidents certainly shows no discernible correlation between the two. Furthermore, Lincoln is almost universally regarded as one of the best presidents, yet he had very little experience.
Anyone who has held a significant elected office is qualified to be president (and others technically are, though I personally would be dubious about someone whose ONLY experience was running a company). Pawlenty is qualified enough, but whether he has the skills to take over as president are another question. I don't know him well enough to answer it, but it would be a serious question.
The big problem with the Pawlenty pick (or Palin or Whitman) is that it would almost completely undermine McCain's most effective attack against Obama: inexperience. People THINK that experience matters, and that's one big reason why Obama hasn't pulled ahead. If a 71(72?)-year-old candidate chooses a VP with little experience, it will be a serious issue. It has been for Obama, but he has basically had a year and a half to make the case to the media and to the public -- Pawlenty would have just over 2 months.
Nate, are you going to correct the Time/CNN state polls from yesterday to include the numbers with Obama, McCain, Barr, and Nader instead of the ones with just Obama v. McCain, to reflect your general policy?
I can virtually hear the panic in VC's voice as he feels things slipping away. Oh, good times are ahead.
"I'd bet I'd find fifty times as many bills that McCain has sponsered and passed."
All of which he now opposes. LOL
If McCain actually had any substance, he wouldn't be morphing his entire campaign into "a noun, a verb and POW".
I can't wait until next week so we can strip the bark off Barack Hussein Obama and show him for the empty suit leftist he really is.
He will be lucky to get above 43% in the polls after we're done with him.
Experience?
Ask one of these neocon nimrods how qualified Arnold Schwartzenegger was to lead the largest state in the country, and an economy that would be in the top 10 if it stood alone.
Sit back and enjoy the deafening silence.
Rasmussen always moves slower...it is an LV model, so that makes sense.
Keep in mind that after the conventions Gallup moves to an LV model as well, so Rasmussen is perhaps a better picture of the after-convention outlook.
They are fairly reliable pollsters.
That said, the RV bounce may well translate into a nice, if not more muted, LV bounce.
My prediction is that Rasmussen will show about half the bounce.
Gallup has always been more volatile, it went +9 after Germany and was back to tied within a week.
Rasmussen barely moves, which is a likely indicator of a better measure of underlying support.
My guess is that by Saturday Rasmussen will have an Obama lead of +4.
Of course tonight changes everything...
All this stuff about the stage decorations at the speech tonight is the bat-shit craziest nonsense of this whole freaking campaign. For God's sake-- do we really think Obama said, "let's make this like the temple of Athena, I want to be a greek god". Its to resemble our freaking capitol-- the seat of democracy!
Last time I checked there was a war on, an environmental crisis, and an economy swiftly tanking. Let's hear people talk more about issues and less about set pieces.
"He will be lucky to get above 43% in the polls after we're done with him."
'We'? Are you Karl Rove's lover or something? :)
McCain has nothing to offer. All he does is try to tear down Obama with lies and nonsense.
Must be why the dittohead crowd likes it so much.
There are hints in Gallup and Rasmussen that the Biden backlash was present to some extent already in the single-day results of Saturday and Sunday. Assuming then as a revised hypothesis that, on both days, Obama had one point less than the 3-day average (likely, as the averages were very stable before Monday) we get the following single-day polling results (I give the days on which polling was conducted, not the day of publication).
An in my previous effort, I assume no rounding error (but avoid introducing one myself).
Gallup
Sat O 44 M 45
Sun O 44 M 45
Mon O 44 M 48
Tue O 47 M 39
Wed O 53 M 39
Rasmussen
Sat O 47 M 45
Sun O 47 M 45
Mon O 44 M 48
Tue O 47 M 47.5
Wed O 48.5 M 45.5
Convention bounces:
Gallup Monday to Tuesday +12
Gallup Tuesday to Wednesday +6
Rasmussen Monday to Tuesday +3.5
Rasmussen Tuesday to Wednesday +3.5
Average convention bounces:
Monday to Tuesday +7.75
Tuesday to Wednesday +4.75
Overall 12.5 average bounce over the first two nights.
A speculative thought:
This bounce has three components, perhaps roughly of equal magnitude:
- The Biden backlash removed;
- Genuine Democratic rallying (basically from August to June levels);
- Transient convention bounce.
I am not a Neo-con, but Governors do not really run the economy...
Neither do Presidents for that matter. The Fed Chief has more control than anyone.
Of course, people think they do, which is what matters.
State tax rates are too small to really impact the economy.
The Repubs will run an exceptionally negative convention/campaign, mostly because they have nothing positive about themselves to say. The Dems are running a mostly positive convention while hitting McCain on the issues, not like McCain who thinks Obama's still a secret Muslim. I don't think this bounce (which will get bigger by Sunday after Bill and Biden factor in the polls) is going away. After the RNC I expect to see a 3 point (maybe more) Obama lead to hold until election day.
To Ask the Question is to Answer It
I thought Bill gave an excellent speech last night on behalf of Senator Obama and I think Obama was aided measurably by Joe Biden’s address as well, particularly those warm moments with his mother right up front that portrayed him in a very nice light and made him instantly likeable. More than that the very historic nature of Obama’s nomination has to benefit him as people enjoy being a part of history.
It was unfortunate that Clinton’s speech intruded to a degree on the moment, that there was so much drama and importance attached to it, like with Hillary’s speech the night before.
There is no question that Bill Clinton said all the right things, though one could quibble with his argument.
First, Bill only made the conclusion that Obama was ready to lead after noting that “with Biden on the ticket Obama now has the foreign policy experience he needs”. I am paraphrasing, but it was unmistakable that Clinton was saying without Biden, Obama alone would not cut it. Chuck Todd picked up on this too, as did others. Still, Clinton said it and that is the headline. As I say it’s a quibble. And as been pointed out, using Biden as a bridge is a way of allowing Clinton to transit from his former opinion to his new one.
I think when Clinton used the argument that he too was assailed with this not ready to lead attack by the Republicans, he got in a bit too deep. One could say, “Damned with faint praise”!
First, Clinton took a time to get his sea legs as President and it is arguable if he was ready to lead on day one. The fact that within two years of his election he lost the Congress says volumes about his effectiveness and readiness.
It is wise also to remember how telling those Republican arguments about Bill’s unpreparedness were. Clinton did not get 45% of the vote in 1992 and if Obama can only do that well, he will lose in an Electoral Vote landslide. Recall also that Clinton was far more accomplished when elected than Obama is now and the comparison is neither apt nor particularly helpful.
I could pick a part element’s of Bill’s speech (he tipped off our enemies that with Obama, military force is the last option, for e.g.), but I’ll leave the explication of that to the Republicans at their convention.
As of the polls published yesterday the Dems got no bounce out of Biden and Mrs. Obama seemed to move no one. I think Hil and Bill did a great job, and I anticipate them to generate a bounce for Obama of 3 to 5 pts bw them. So far I am a little surprised that there was only a one point move in the Ras tracker this morning, perhaps this afternoon’s Gallup will show a bigger bounce from Hillary’s speech. With Bill’s, we should see the numbers tick up a few points again tomorrow (full effect of Bill's full throated endorsement). Obama's speech should also net more points.
Net, net Obama should be up somewhere between 5 to 10 pts by the polls published on Saturday. B/C McCain will announce early Friday; his Veep pick will also be in those numbers to a degree. I’d place the under / over at about 7.5%
That said, I don’t expect the bounce to last. I think the Clinton endorsements will only be a temporary palliative to Obama’s problems of lack of leadership credentials and experience.
As I noted above, when it comes to leadership, “to ask the question is to answer it”. If you have to ask and it’s not apparent, you don’t have it. No one is going to have to convince America of John McCain’s leadership credentials next week. And while they will be repeatedly brought up, it will not be to bolster McCain, but rather to draw the unfortunate contrast with Obama.
>>As Hillary said, she has a lifetime of experience to bring. Senator McCain has a lifetime of experience. Senator Obama has a speech he gave in 2004.
Hillary was trying to win. (and by the way "lifetime of experience" is meaningless in as much as everyone has a lifetime of experience). She conveniently forgot to mention the relative inexperience of Governor Bush, Senator Kennedy or for that matter Governor Clinton.
LOL!!
Cracks me up how often you guys mention Karl Rove.
He must feel pretty good about all the power you guys give him and he doesn't even try.
I know he makes a ton of money because every other post on any liberal blog mentions his name.
Clinton had been Governor of a state for 12 years and had a successful law practice.
Senator Kennedy had been in Congress much longer than Obama when he ran.
Governor Bush was the two-term Governor of the second largest state in the country.
Four years ago, Obama was a back bencher state Senator.
I would guess by sunday Obama is at 52% and by the following friday the race will be back to a dead heat after 4 days of Obama bashing at the GOP convention.
I really think it will be close until the end and then it will break Obama`s way. The republicans have nothing to run on except that obama has no experience and character assasination, it will backfire in the end.
If McCain does poorly in the debates it`s over.
SEDI
OK, your point about minimal qualification is taken. My point is that his 'qualification' as Gov of MN are questionable.
Are you familiar with his poor record there & the budgetary problems that he has exacerbated ?
He has a lack of leadership, has never been able to get 50% of the vote in an election [he won because of 3rd party splits], etc.
While he is old enough and Tim has some executive government experience behind him thereby being 'qualified' per se - he defeats any argument for the GOPers against Obama's experience 'qualifications'.
That was my inelegantly made argument on a technicality.
But I have family in MN & just returned from there again, so I am very familiar with TPaw. He IS Dan Quayle '08 - plus earlier this month he was going out of his way to say nice things about how Obama was bringing 'hope' and optimism to politics. A nice gesture, probably made to endear himself to the MN DFL & IND electorate since he wants to be Senator [but lost once already].
However, that gesture toward Obama will come bacl to haunt him as VP candidate - disqualifying him as far as the Rush/Rove crowd is concerned since it is not allowed to say nice things about their 'enemy'. IMO
It's Gallup for God's sake.
I'll start to think there's any meaning behind this poll at all if it stays at this level for 3-4 days or expands consistently.
Until then it's just something for the political junkies to nibble on, just like when McCain suddenly went ahead after being consistently behind for however long.
"No one is going to have to convince America of John McCain’s leadership credentials next week."
Yes, that's called the Big Lie.
The truth is that McCain is pumped up as some sort of great leader, but he hasn't actually led anything.
The emperor has no clothes.
The Republican Party got a majority of the popular vote in 1972, 1980, 1984, 1988, and 2004. Four of those five were landslides.
I hope that will be a source of comfort for you in November.
Darien [will eat] Crow:
So it's down to the level of personal insults again, is it? People diagree with you? They must be sheep, blindly following their leader.
I almost wouldn't mind being a goat, since it was the three gruff billy goats who destroyed the evil troll.
Unknown to those who wrote down that Scandanavian folk tale, the troll was genetically engineered - with jacklass genes it it.
The good news for Dems is that these numbers probably do not even reflect the Clinton speech...
How much of the polling could have been done after 10/11pm?
Except on the West Coast maybe...which is worth noting, but not fundamental.
This only captures the Michelle+Hillary bounce and a sliver of the Bill bounce.
If you love Obama, you love those numbers...
He commanded a naval squadron in Vietnam, you moron.
Why would they hate Lieberman in FL? I thought it was full of Batististas and hawkish retired Jewish folks. And after all the guy was re-elected as an indy in a pretty liberal state.
Hate to break this to you, VirgCon, but as shown on this very site, experience is overrated in terms of predicting the success of a president.
Oh, and 'Arnold Schwartzenegger'.
*crickets*
To VC and other trolls.
If, and it's a big if, the reason why the race has been close until now was because of the PUMA people, then Hillary and Bill seemed to put that to rest AND the GOP will not receive a huge bounce next week.
IF the GOP were to be able to roll out one of the Clinton's at their convention next week, then, there would be huge movement to McCain. But the Clinton's made their case for Obama -- a strong case -- and we shall see where the PUMA people go.
McCain will not be able to wooo the PUMA people next week -- either they've left Obama for good or he got them back this week. If McCain picks up anything next week it will be a consolidation of his base -- which he already got with Saddleback.
"Oh, and 'Arnold Schwartzenegger'"
He is a moronic RINO, and much closer policy wise to you libs than you like to admit.
rhys -
You mean like how many houses he owns?
"He commanded a naval squadron in Vietnam"
Whoop-de-do.
He wouldn't even have been IN the Navy if he hadn't been born with a silver spoon in his mouth. And he never should have been flying in the first place since he was a shitty pilot.
John McCain has ridden to success on others' coattails his entire life.
PLOUFFE:
DO NOT TRUST THE GALLUP TRACKING
The Obama campaign is focused on undecideds and swing democrats in 18 states.
OBAMA:
Hope is the bedrock of this nation. The belief that our destiny will not be written for us, but by us, by all those men and women who are not content to settle for the world as it is, who have the courage to remake the world as it should be.
That is what we started here in Iowa and that is the message we can now carry to New Hampshire and beyond.
The same message we had when we were up and when we were down; the one that can save this country, brick by brick, block by block, callous hand by callous hand, that together, ordinary people can do extraordinary things.
Because we are not a collection of red states and blue states. We are the United States of America. And in this moment, in this election, we are ready to believe again.
"He is a moronic RINO"
Which millions of Republicans happily voted into power despite him having NO EXPERIENCE WHATSOEVER.
Oops.
It's a bigger deal to command a naval squadron than sit in the basement of some shitty Chicago YMCA and meet with a bunch of socialists to register dead people for the Mayor Daley Machine, which is essentially what Obama's "community organizing" entailed.
Oh, and I love the fact he was a PAID "community organizing volunteer". Ha!
6 is a considerable bounce. Since it probably reflects early convention awareness I would assume it is a prelude to a potential bounce that might vindicate the McCain campaign's effort to posit an absurd 15. It would be nice of Barack equalled or exceeded the McCain benchmark. John Kerry hit the nail on the head yesterday and offered the most cogent reasoning on why it makes sense to move to Obama this year. You can see the speech here:
http://stephencrosehome.blogspot.com
He commanded a naval squadron in Vietnam, you moron.
No he didn't. He commanded a stateside training squadron years after the Vietnam War ended. For SOME reason, he was very quickly reassigned to be a Congressional liaison, and never given another command.
I think the PUMAs represent only a small portion of the HRC vote. I wrote this after Hillary's speech the other night as way of explaining why even though there may be a healing of divisions between the Clinton and Obama camps, that does not mean all of Hill's voters will follow.
Divisions More Apparent than Real
Much has been made over the division of the Democratic Party and much may be made over the next few days, weeks and months about whether the breach has or has not been healed.
I reject the notion that the party is divided along ideological lines.
The Democrat Party remains rooted in populism and an anti-business reactivity, along with a pacifist international perspective that has been its hallmark since the defeat of LBJ in 1968. You need not worry about ideological purity within your party.
Oh, there may be a few Western State governors who seem outside the mold, but they come and go. This is firmly the Party of Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, Michael Moore and George Soros.
The Democrats only appear divided because they could not choose among their standard bearers this year. Both offer essentially the same set of policies and come out of far left wing traditions rooted in flirtations with Marxism.
The difference of course between them is as plain as black and white, woman and man. It was a real Sophie’s Choice the Democrats faced this year and Obama eked out a narrow win based on superior organization and a caucus strategy that frankly caught Clinton flat-footed.
Clinton was never as personally popular as she appeared. That is why it was so easy for a vast number of voters early in the process to move from her to this charismatic unknown. Had she had a dedicated political following that was as deep as it was wide, Obama’s insurgency would never have taken root and he would have been cast aside as a curiosity. Wait your turn, son.
Things changed in the campaign in March when the Revered Wright story finally came to light in a big way. There remain many unanswered questions regarding Obama’s adherence to the tenets of Wright’s Church and its poisonous philosophy of “Black Liberation Theology”. The real problem was not so much the substance of the association – the full story of which has yet to be told – but rather that it woke America up to the fact that there was a lot about this Barack Obama that remains unknown.
This sense of mystery about Obama has dogged him since. It was the reason why he needed to be “humanized” by his wife and daughters, why the Convention has taken such pains to dispel the notion of him as “other” as “alien” even to the extreme of wasting an entire day / night ignoring McBush and trying to fill out the Obama family biography. That we did not really learn much Monday night is telling. Barack’s story is not an easy one to tell and it seems to raise more questions than it answers. The campaign would rather stay away from his biography, but know they need to fill in some gaps, if only to pass a certain threshold, the precise location of which is still undetermined. Will Bill Ayers be the outer limit, I wonder? Or is there yet still more to learn? We will know the answer to that by November 4, my friends, we will know that answer.
So what division then are Hillary and Bill being called upon to bridge?
Its not ideological, it’s personal. The cult of two different personalities: the Obamas vs. Clintons. The new Hatfield’s and McCoy’s.
The problem is that Obama is still unknown and is untrusted by so many. Particularly those heartland, rural voters and the Reagan Democrats of yore. It may have something to do with the color of his skin, but also to do with his attitude and suspicious about his allegiances and loyalties.
Hillary Clinton, who did not regularly shave her legs until the 1990s, is hardly the heroine of the heartland. She is one-time beatnik, radical feminist with a Machiavellian desire for power and influence that has never been observed in female candidate for any office in the land, let alone President. Think of who she was and what she represents. Do you honestly think that those folks who contributed to her roiling up margins of 70 - 80% in the primaries out in the hinterlands were doing it out of an innate sense of admiration for her? Or was it their dislike for Obama?
A speech in Denver is not going to change minds among these suspicious Democrats. Little girls shouting “Daddy!” while Obama ignores them will not sway many votes.
I think it was Pat Buchanan who called Mrs. Clinton a “parking space” for these voters the other night. They stopped for a moment and then will move on.
Rest assured, they have not yet moved to Obama. I am not sure what will move them. This week in Denver does not seem calculated to do the trick.
One thing to note in Rasmussen.
Leaners almost always favor McCain.
That is worth noting.
If you assume that undecideds likely follow the leaners then that is a built in advantage.
Those who are unsure typically opt for the safe option, which is why leaners favor McCain.
It may not mean anything, admittedly.
But if undecided go the way of leaners, that is a +3 structural advantage for McCain.
Undecided typically vote for divided government as well, so that also favors McCain.
If Obama is up by 4-5 points on election day, he wins.
Anything less than 3 is a crapshoot.
Bill Clinton, by saying that the Republicans were wrong in 1992 to say he was too young and inexperienced, acknowledged that Hillary's charge against Obama was the typical sort of negative posturing that politicians desperate to win at any cost direct at stupid people, who lap it up. But if John McCain wants to argue that people should go by Hillary's words, that implies that they should follow what she said Tuesday as well as throughout the campaign and throughout her career, which is that the policies of John McCain would have terrible results for Americans. An honest person would recognize all her words, but a despicable pile of steaming feces like "Virginia Conservative" is no honest person.
"It's a bigger deal to command a naval squadron"
It isn't when you're only there because daddy pulled some strings.
Of course, we're only talking about McCain at all because he abandoned his crippled wife to run after a floozy heiress half his age whose family financed his senate campaign.
So much for 'family values'.
Has McCain ever accomplished anything at all on his own merits?
snax,
Everyone hates Lieberman. Liberals hate him because he betrayed their values. Conservatives hate him because he pretends to be one of them but is really only a true conservative on foreign policy issues.
Besides, the recent Mason-Dixon poll in Florida suggests that Floridians would be happiest with a Romney VP pick - for whatever reason.
It's funny how whenever a Republican accomplishes something, it's always because "his daddy pulled some strings" according to Democrats.
I have news for you, McCain could have let his Daddy pull some strings to get him out of the POW camp five years early but he refused.
I wonder what Obama would do?
"No he didn't. He commanded a stateside training squadron years after the Vietnam War ended. For SOME reason, he was very quickly reassigned to be a Congressional liaison, and never given another command."
Might have something to do with him being a shitty officer.
DCM,
Yeah, I see what you're saying. I was taking the term experience more literally, whereas your point is that he wasn't a very good governor. I don't know his record well enough to comment, though he hasn't seemed all that impressive to me. I have a hard time seeing McCain actually choosing him, since I doubt MN is seriously in play for McCain unless he picks up a pretty big bounce nationwide. McCain's best shot is Bush states-IA-NM, and it's hard to see Pawlenty helping him much there. Romney shores up his economic credentials and at least gives him a chance. Plus, Romney is perceived to have enough experience that McCain would be able to keep hammering away on the inexperience line of attack.
The mayor of my town in Arnold Schwartz -- a Jewish body-builder!
As a former registered Republican (I'm still voting BO, no matter what), if McCain can tap Portman as his VP, that would be a good competent choice. I've met S. Palin, she's a good good woman and would be a fine VP choice -- but she just had a baby and thus has other responsibilities to attend to.
If it boils down to Romney vs. Pawlenty, as an BO supporter I'd rather see Pawlenty getting chewed up by Biden. Also, Romney does have that presidential look to him even if he is a huckster. Romney is no pushover in debates either. But he was pro-choice as recently as 2005.
Maybe McCain can tap Al Gore to capture some PUMA votes.
It's a bigger deal to command a naval squadron than sit in the basement of some shitty Chicago YMCA and meet with a bunch of socialists to register dead people for the Mayor Daley Machine, which is essentially what Obama's "community organizing" entailed.
VG: I guess that's why you voted for Kerry over Bush then?
Wow. As an independent, I'm pretty disgusted by all the Republican trolling. It's a sign that they're losing on the issues (which, except for abortion, they definitely are in my opinion).
It makes me ashamed that I voted for Bush in 2000, but what did I know? I was in high school then.
The next week will be the true test. By next Friday, after the Republicans are through with their smear and lie fest, if the American people are still with Obama, McCain will be in serious trouble.
If the electorate buys it again, then we're all in trouble. The country is heading for the toilet.
"It's funny how whenever a Republican accomplishes something, it's always because "his daddy pulled some strings" according to Democrats."
That's because Republicans are extraordinarily good at getting their daddies to pull strings.
He graduated at the bottom of his class and made a routine habit of flambeeing expensive jets. The only reason he was allowed to keep flying was 'daddy'.
"I have news for you, McCain could have let his Daddy pull some strings to get him out of the POW camp five years early but he refused."
Tell that to the POWs who call him 'songbird'.
If I were a Republican, I'd have be on the horn to the Christian Broadcasting Network, begging them to pray that Hurricane Gustav doesn't go into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Last time I looked, the Bush administration had not done anything to improve FEMA.
Hey Rhys... Do you live in California?
If not... Arnie means nothing to you.
If so... I really wish you still had Gray Davis.
Rhys prepare for Mac's all-purpose answer -
noun+verb+POW!
Democrats throwing birthday parties for McCain's 72nd birthday on friday in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Arizona & DC
Because Kerry threw his medals over the fence and joined a radical leftist group for cheap political gain, that's why.
He also made a radical anti-American speech before Congress accusing American soldiers of being like Mongolian barbarians, speeches which Kim Jung Il broadcasts in North Korea to this very day!
Daniel,
What made you abandon the republican Party? I am curious.
"Hey Rhys... Do you live in California?
If not... Arnie means nothing to you."
Try REALLY hard and maybe you can grasp the simple point.
Repugnicans go on and on about how much experience candidates need to have but ONLY when it is to their advantage.
Schwartzy had NO experience and went straight to the governorship of the biggest state in the union.
I hope Virginia goes blue this fall. That would be really sweet. :)
Maybe the McCain 15-point bounce isn't so absurd at all.
I don't think anyone fails to appreciate Senator McCain's service, but let's be real--he was an underachiever who only got as far as he did in the Navy because of his father's standing.
Look, let me tell you all some truth. There are a lot of independents in Arizona (like myself) and most of us can't stand John McCain for numerous reasons. That's why he's in trouble in his own state. I will guarantee you that the independent voters break for Obama.
VCON is on fire today. Get a job loser!!!!!!
It's also funny how when a Democrat serves in congress for 25+ years they're just a Washington insider but if its a Republican it makes him wise and experienced and fit to be commander in chief
Similarly we were told GW Bush was a breath of fresh air, an outsider yet Obama is apparently wet behind the ears and somehow an elitist at the same time (wtf?)
Lots to talk about.
The bounce is irelevent because the GOP convention starts in hours. GOP & DEM bounces will have a tug-of-war. The facinating question is what the polls will be saying in 10 days time.
The Dem convention went perfectly (fingers crosed for Obama's speach). The Republicans can't do better, but they might well do worse. Should that happen EVERYBODY will notice and the resulting Dem bump will be huge.
I have always suspected that the Democratic hold-outs atributed to PUMA were not 60 year old femanists fanatics but Conservative Democrats. The latest Mason-Dixon Florida poll (claimed home of PUMA) shows only 9% of Women and 4% of Dems less likely to vote Obama because of the Biden Not-Hillary VP choice. Evidence to support that view.
I am interested in seeing how the polls for Florida develop. The combination of Biden + enthusiastic speaches from the Clintons should do well there. If Obama emphasises that he will be listening to Biden, then very well.
Florida is full of people who remember the Clintons fondly, hold centerist views, and believe that people with experience should be listened to. The above being a good description of most Democratic Old Timers.
Good to know I get inside your head so easily, jaiti.
I love you too!
*kiss kiss*
VACon, I'm calling you out for the Obama plant you clearly are. You had me going there for awhile, but your false panic and freak-out in this thread is just too obvious and over the top. I mean, do you honestly expect us to think you believe in the ridiculous arguments you are making today? Obama's "ceiling?" Can't seal the deal? Really? Come on. Obviously you're an agent provocateur. Well played, Obama campaign, well played! You almost had us!
Mac's an improvement on W, but that's about all. I don't think he's dim but he has a very narrow world view and he's incurably impulsive. That's OK in a fighter jock but when you are piloting the US of A there isn't an ejector seat or parachute. You need to think before you act.
SuperstarJ2ThaR,
Don't blame yourself. I voted Bush in 2000 as well and I was 32 yrs old, not a high schooler like you (I should have known better). I feel responsible for some of the mess from '00-'08 since I was living in Ft. Lauderdale in '00 and was one of the idiots that put Bush in office. Oh how I wish I could have that vote back.
Anyway, the trolls are crying about the DEMS hitting their favorite GOPers with the 'daddy pulled strings' argument. Well, let's look at it this way -- Teddy Roosevelt was his own man, Eisenhower was his own man, Gerald Ford was definitely his own man, and the great Ronald Reagan, in the words of his son Ron Jr., was "all man". It seems the 'I'm my own man' legacy of the Republicans stopped with Reagan. As Bush Sr. was a product of his anti-semetic and bigoted daddy Prescott and then it works it's way down hill from their.
But in GOP history, going back to Abe Lincoln himself, until you get to Bush Sr., all the GOP presidents were good, tough and decent men.
VC, you're bringing up McCain's command in the Navy, so riddle me this:
Could ANYONE with his record in terms of:
Crashing planes (five)
Academic ineptitude (894/899 in his class)
General behavioral problems (well-documented)
get that sort of promotion without his unparalleled family line in the Navy?
If that's not privilege, what is?
(By the way, this also works as a counter to the bona-fide BS of the "Obama to Harvard Law was Affirmative Action" argument)
Rhys.. Dude it's California!!
I lived there for 35 years and moved out when it just got too damn blue for me to stomach any longer.
They will always vote for the most popular. Are you surprised?
It's exactly what you are doing now with Obama. He's popular now but if he is elected he will be toast inside of 3 years because his popularity will wane and he's still an empty suit.
I'm not panicked. There is no bounce. The One is doing no better than he was doing in July. Big whoop.
Until he gets over 50%, he is in big trouble.
Not cool for anyone to wish a hurricane to hit anywhere for political reasons.
It was stupid for that religious guy to pray for rain to begin with. We need not stoop to his level.
Despite being an Obama supporter, I will pray that Gustav does not damage to any part of the US red or blue.
Leaners almost always favor McCain.
That is worth noting.
If you assume that undecideds likely follow the leaners then that is a built in advantage.
Or if you look at it another way, it means a higher percentage of McCain's support is "soft" -- made up of "leaners" who aren't fully committed to him and may change their minds. Keep in mind that most polls just give the number with leaners -- no "without leaners" number is presented.
I see no reason to assume that those who are truly undecided (and by definition not "leaning" toward either candidate) will trend the same way as the "leaning toward Obama/leaning toward McCain" crowd.
Question: Is it better to have you convention after the other party has theirs? And if so who decides?
SNAX
Re: you asked about why FL would not want Lieberman for VP.
the most recent FL poll internals spell it out.
Yesterday I had posted this from the new Mason-Dixon poll confirms that:
"While Florida voters like Crist, it is probably safe to say that they prefer the first-term governor stay in Tallahassee and do the job he was elected to do less than two years ago."
---------------------------
No real surprise there except that I think that all bets on Crist are definitely off or Obama will win FL.
But of more surprise was how bad FL voters apparently DESPISE Lieberman as a McCain VP as per Mason-Dixon polling today:
"Selecting Joe Lieberman could surprisingly have a negative effect in Florida. In 2000, Lieberman’s presence on the Democratic ticket almost delivered the state to Al Gore because of strong Jewish voter support in South Florida. Eight years later, however, many Democrats are not happy with Lieberman’s abandoning of the Senate’s Democratic caucus and 25% of Republican voters do not want him on the GOP ticket. With apparently limited cross-over appeal and the risk of losses among the fragile GOP base, a Lieberman selection would be dangerous."
-----------------------------------
I would think that means there is no way McCain will pick Lieberman if he wants to win FL - and he cannot win without holding FL [IMO].
---------------------------------
also for Crist the news is bad. McCain picks him & he would probably lose his home state too per Strategic Vision poll this week [a Rep pollister]:
"Q 10. Would you favor or oppose John McCain selecting Florida Governor Charlie Crist as his vice presidential candidate?
Favor 34%
Oppose 52% <<<<< [that is of all FL voters]
Undecided 14% "
FWIW
jason,
Yeah, I've been trying to get him to admit it too, but he's still playing along. I suppose the greatest actors rarely break character.
The 538 comments used to have some great wonk discussion and number-crunching, but this has clearly degenerated into a troll-fest.
You realize that your "McCain '08" schwag you earn blog trolling will be obsolete even if he wins?
For god's sake, go get lives.
Keep in mind that Gallup is still using registered voters and registered voters don't vote. Likely and Certain voters vote. It is mostly that reason that Ras has it a tie, not the party id.
-----
Balls. Likely voters polls are some special sauce polls that a polling firm puts on their polls. They need to avoid any of the party identification weighing or likely voter models.
Daniel--
Thanks. You can't blame yourself either. You make a decision with what you know. At the time, for example, I thought No Child Left Behind was a *good* idea...then I went to school to become a professor and realized how poor standardized tests are for discerning knowledge and intelligence. I also became even more of a "state's rights, smaller federal gov't" guy (being black makes that a rarity, too...you should see people's faces when I tell them this. I don't mean it the way some segregationists might, though). I think education can only be administered properly on the local level.
But I digress. The point is that I'd take my vote back too if I could. I really thought that, disregarding those things that I don't agree with the GOP on as far as social issues, the Republican Party was for smaller government and fiscal responsibility. That's what attracted me to them (and later to Harry Browne and the Libertarians in 2004). But they're not like that anymore.
And I profess to wanting more of an intellectual type to run our country. Or maybe not that, but the type of guy who is cool, calm, and will actually listen to his cabinet and make informed decisions, like Lincoln did. That's a large part of why I'm voting for Obama.
"I'm not panicked. There is no bounce."
Repugnicans and data are like oil and water.
VACon:
I *know* you're not panicked, that's what I'm saying! You're a plant! Sent here by Obama HQ to make McCain supporters look bad! You're probably loving the bounce. Just curious, does Obama have some sort of points system like McCain does, or are you clowning yourself for the sheer joy of it all?
Keep in mind that Obama was up by two before he announced Biden as his running mate, on monday Obama's numbers were artificially low (McCain up by two). The persons dissapointed that Obama did not name Clinton as VP, however, would be the first ones to come back into the fold. So it's more looking like a 4% bounce at the moment. Which is still a very good place to be at.
"I lived there for 35 years and moved out when it just got too damn blue for me to stomach any longer.
They will always vote for the most popular."
Okay, so experience isn't that important after all. Glad we got that settled.
"Are you surprised?"
At Republicans being hypocrites? Not for quite a few years now.
Virginia Conservative:
Please get your facts straight: Bush's percentage in 04 was 50.7, not 52.
To say Bush hasn't had a cult of personality is asanine--his followers claimed he was Godsent to lead this country against "evil" after 9-11. Obama's references to healing the planet and cleaning the oceans refer to his environmental and clean energy policies, not to any supernatural or Godlike powers on his part.
But I have to believe you know that and are just engaging in demagougery.
Because Kerry threw his medals over the fence and joined a radical leftist group for cheap political gain, that's why.
He also made a radical anti-American speech before Congress accusing American soldiers of being like Mongolian barbarians, speeches which Kim Jung Il broadcasts in North Korea to this very day!
VA Con: I thought you were quite smart until I read this.
I have a fun, passing the time idea---why not guess what the trolls will say if Obama hit 50 or makes it past 50? Because we know that if he does they will come out with some version of He's Doomed!
Here's my contribution---'Obama hitting fifty today does not count. It is only one day. For it to really be a bounce it has to be at least (insert a ridiculous number of days here). Also unless Rass shows him over 50 he it proves he is crashing and is the worse candiate ever."
Just thought we could get it out there already so we don't have to argue against it later. ;-)
He commanded a naval squadron in Vietnam, you moron.
Another lie from Virginia Cretin. McCain's naval career was "distinguished" by crashing two planes, hitting power lines, and getting shot down as result of violating a direct order to cancel his mission. As a result of his celebrity as a POW, he was made commander of a squadron in Florida. VC lies about McCain's experience, he lies about Obama's experience, he lies about everything ... that's what it means to be a "conservative" in the U.S. these days.
xyz@12:47
No, but I think it was TPM or election central. Sorry
Dan,
Here's a poll for you that will perhaps elicit some discussion:
Greg Smith Idaho
McCain 52 Obama 29
I know that for weeks now the buzz here on 538.com has been: "I wonder if Obama's picked up steam in Idaho" and "When are we going to get another poll from Idaho." Well, here we are everyone: the most critical electoral state in the country, the swingiest of the swing states, the big enchilada. Talk about bounces all you want, if McCain's eking out a 23-point lead in Idaho, clearly the election is his.
Pete Kent,
The one GOPer I respect (PeteKent doesn't spew talking points nor does he pose as a PUMA mole).
I grew up with Democratic parents on LI. We had tough times during the Carter years. I was a teenager when Reagan took office and I noticed things changed. My parents could afford a new car (insead of worrying about being able to afford gas when Carter was President). My dad was not into politics at all but he was very fond of Reagan -- and so from a Reagan democrat was spawned a Reagan republican (me).
It all fell apart for me when Bush Sr. ran that Atwater campaign against Dukakis. Bush Sr. could have won on the issues but they injected Willie Horton which was something my idol, Reagan, would not have done.
And we roll down the years -- Reagan was a fiscal conservative, tried and true. He was a gentleman who got tough when he needed to. But the Republican party became very fiscally irresponsible in the 90s and then they started running un-gentlemanly campaigs (like Chambliss against Max Cleeland) and started electing Joe McCarthy types like Tom DeLay).
And, then the cultural issues came with Bush Jr. which really led me to become an Independent. The GOP used that poor woman Terry Schiavo and her family to score points with evangelicals. It made my stomach turn. Bush and Cheney used 9/11 (I used to work in WTC 1 so it was personal to me) for their political advantage and took us to war with a country that was no threat to the USA (and over 4,000 of our brave men and women died - countless maimed).
Well the list goes on and on why I've left the GOP. I hold out hope that with an Obama victory will come a change, really a movement by the GOP to get back to the days when Reagan was our standard bearer and Republican behaved like Gentlemen and ladies.
VA Con: I thought you were quite smart
Whoa. Weird.
More 538.com bias. Where was the BREAKING News thread when McCain took his first lead since May in the Gallup poll earlier this week.
Even you Nate realize these bounces mean nothing.
The bottom line is this: This is a convention bounce. This is not a Biden Bounce.
The party is STILL not unified after this convention folks.... The Clintons were forced to do the endorsement thing, but who cares... The bottom line is a good 30%-32% of Clinton voters will back John McCain, and you call that united??? Hhahahaha
Big Deal folks!
This will erode by next week!!!
maybe the Obama-beauty is going to bounce his way into the white house now?
ya, who's that buggering on about experience again? such a bogus 'issue'.
Sedi,
Well, it looks like Obama's finished now. I mean, if he can't even make 50% in Idaho...well, we all know the saying: "as goes Idaho, so goes the nation." McCain better start picking drapes for the White House.
You realize that your "McCain '08" schwag you earn blog trolling will be obsolete even if he wins?
No way! I collect that stuff (buttons).
SEDI
I am glad to see that I clarified myself on that. I know from your posting that you are a reasonable sort.
Actually, your first post calling me on the use of 'qualification' is appreciated.
Words do matter, and my choice of words was technically inaccurate. Sometimes we use shorthand on these posts & end up throwing out words that can be misconstrued as deceptive even if it looks descriptive to me.
But in hindsight, I guess I assumed that by attaching the 'Dan Quayle' qualifier to TPaw [which is what folks & MSM in MN do refer to him as - not derogatory] that my comparison would be more clear.
I mean, technically Dan Quayle was 'qualified' to be a Senator, then VP & POTUS - even if I personally feel that only could be true in a Bizarro World...
I should haved at a minimum attached an IMHO to that original statement I now realize.
thanx
Radical Neo-Cons..Here it is...Obama always rises to the occasion, and delivers...The presidential race was truely between Hill and Obama...MCbush is a joke...watch his numbers drop by 2% on monday..Bush/cheney..ouch and then spend the remaining 3 days repeating the word POW 50,000 times and hoping to reclaim the 2% back..it should become 51% BO - 39% McBushLight
Holy mother of god, they have all been let go from their cages! By daddy Hannity and granpa Limbaugh!
Not cool for anyone to wish a hurricane to hit anywhere for political reasons.
It was stupid for that religious guy to pray for rain to begin with. We need not stoop to his level.
Despite being an Obama supporter, I will pray that Gustav does not damage to any part of the US red or blue.
No one need hope for a hurricane to do any damage to anyone. As long as there is a hurricane in the Gulf while the Republicans are having their convention, it will cause the news media to be bringing up the Bush administration's worst hour.
If Gustav prowls around the Gulf and hits some thinly populated area of Texas and doesn't do much damage, great. It will have done its political duty.
Maybe this is God's judgment on the reprobate Republican Party. Stick a hurricane into the Gulf of Mexico during their political convention to remind America that in this country, the federal government of George W. Bush left a whole city to fend for itself, as if this was some sort of Third World nation.
Let the media return to those glory days, and let them go back to New Orleans and show the degree to which the Bush administration has left that city for dead. Life ain't fair, and neither is the weather.
We passed the hat at work, and plan to give Krusty a walker with wheels, and a free month of caregiver service! Couldn't bring myself to go to the Depends place. EWWW
Well Mitt Romney's family are receiving security sweeps by the Secret Service... just like Biden, so there you are.
It's Mitt Romney my friends.
Joe gets the fight he was hired for, and Mitt brings home Nevada, Colorado, and also puts Michigan in play.
Gee didn't I say this would all happen about a month ago?
More 538.com bias. Where was the BREAKING News thread when McCain took his first lead since May in the Gallup poll earlier this week.
The authors of this website have never made any secret of that "bias." If you don't like it, go back to freeperland where you belong.
I'm calling the pick- Fred Thompson.
For the about 10% of us far right wingers who despise what people like Bush have done with out party- Fred Thompson excites us like no other.
And if not him then Eric Cantor.
It won't be Pawlenty, Romney, Liberman, Palin, or Ridge.
Mitt Romney or no, McCain will lose Colorado and Michigan.
The idea that Romney will help carry Michigan is as dumb as the idea that Biden cements Pennsylvania for Obama.
I do wonder if Romney's Mormonism will have a negative effect on evangelical turnout.
If Obama is up by 4-5 points on election day, he wins.
Anything less than 3 is a crapshoot.
I'd say 5 to be sure.
If Obama isn't ahead in the polls right before election day by 5 points, he's in some trouble. Late deciders will break for status quo over change.
matthew,
I doubt it, really. Were you planning on not voting for McCain unless he nominates somewhat like Thompson? Because if not, it seems like a waste of a VP pick to shore up a group (self-professed far right-wingers) who will already vote McCain.
Everything I said about Kerry was true, Becky. Look it up.
People like him are part of the reason Vietnam Vets were spit on and called "baby killers."
If he selects Mitt Romney, I will actively campaign against him. There are few public figures who scare me more than the Mittster in office. He is a dangerous and slimey individual.
Daniel @ 2:02 PM said...
"Pete Kent,
The one GOPer I respect (PeteKent doesn't spew talking points nor does he pose as a PUMA mole)."
I must either assume you are new to this site or else you have to be kidding, right ?
PETE KENT [who I fondly refer to as Pete the Parrot] is the very definition of a talking point spewing concern troll ! IMHO & of many others.
Even Pete himself admits it, and that he writes those super-lengthy screeds [taken from GOPer HQ] and spams the same ones clear across the net on multiple blogs !
PLEASE, tell me you were joking...
hi Pete
On topic, by the way:
I crunched the numbers to figure out Gallup's daily results.
Here's what I got (O-M):
8.20 45-44
8.21 45-44
8.22 48-44
8.23 42-47
8.24 45-45
8.25 45-46
8.26 45-41
8.27 54-39
Interesting as 8.22 Obama has a noticable lead as VP buzz builds, then the day after when it's announced a temporary shift as Hillary supporters are upset. It quickly dissipates the next day. Day one of the convention makes independents less likely to support McCain, then day two and Hillary wins over all of her previously undecided supporters.
It's really sad that this blog is being weighed under by mindless trolling. I like reading intelligent commentary about polling, not recycled nonsense about John Kerry's medals.
VACon:
"People like him are part of the reason Vietnam Vets were spit on"
Whatever, plant. Never happened. This is one of those zombie lies that refuses to die. Which you certainly knew already. Plant.
Liberals you fail to recognize internal polling that shows Romney helps in Michigan-Colorado-Nevada....
Anyways I'm hearing it is Romney. I have read Pawlenty is clearing the next two days out of the way....
As a conservative.. I am utterly pissed. I wanted Romney!
Nice. Obama is +4 since Tuesday (44 to 48), McCain is -4 since Tuesday (46 to 42). At this rate Obama's bounce could come at a cost for McCain pushing him back into the 30s.
Either way, I still don't put much into national polls or daily tracking, even if it favors my guy. But this should be enough to silence those people who were calling Obama toast on Tuesday. And if it doesn't, then you guys just look like asses, by your own standards, in the face of this poll.
I'm not a "plant" jason but I'm beginning to think you have the brains of a plant, the leafy variety.
You can go see John Kerry's anti-American speech on YouTube where he accused American soldiers of atrocities with no evidence whatsoever and compared them to Ghenghis Khan. I'm not making this up--for God's sake this was all played out in 2004!
DCM in Fl,
What can I say? PeteKent has grown on me.
Yes, he used to post that rubbish and was called 'Pete the Parrot' but his posts have become more articulate and even if I don't agree with him, I respect what he has to say.
I ask you all, Independents for BO and Democrats, which McCain supporter do you respect more 1) PeteKent of 2) Virginia Conservative?
It's a shame we can't post a poll on this site. Anyway, it's good to have the GOP put their points out there too on this site. It makes the message board quite interesting at time.
PeteKent, keep 'em coming!!
Va Con,
Dude, you're like batsh!t crazy today.
Rather you realize it or not, you are coming across as someone who gets angry when they feel threatened.
You're like channeling John McCain today.
Seriously. Usually you make some good points. But you're swingly blindly today.
Go on vacation for a couple of days. Don't watch the DNC and post-DNC bounces. Come back when McCain is on TV.
You'll feel better.
On this date in history, August 28, 2004, in the Rasmussen Presidential Tracking Poll, President George Bush led John Kerry 48% to 47%.
for final results, please see Presidential Inauguration, January 2005.
VC,
You're singlehandedly killing the intelligent discourse that normally goes on here.
For the love of god, STOP.
There are no undecided voters on this board. Who are you talking to? Who are you trying to convince? Don't you have a job?
I'm embarrassed to post on the same board as you. Please leave us.
So if it is Romney, how hypocrytical was McCain by releasing that ad Of Biden's two sentence criticism of Barack, when Romney and McCain went at it heavy? There is ton more material to use from Romney bitch slaping McCain. Again, it doesn't surprise me coming from the joksters over at McCain's HQ. Nothing like a used car salesman for a VP.
"Rather you realize it or not, you are coming across as someone who gets angry when they feel threatened."
Perfect McCain supporter.
He just needs to put "POW" in more sentences.
DCM,
I know that it's easy to use a word that is sort-of but not exactly what you mean, and then someone takes it the wrong way. I reacted to it mostly because my Dad's big complaint about Obama is that he doesn't have enough experience and I just wonder why someone who appreciates that facts and evidence matter could come to the conclusion that experience (when measured so simply by time in the Senate or as governor or whatever) makes a difference. Here on this site we (or some of us) strive to understand and use data better. When measured in simple year and position terms, there seems to be little if any correlation between the perceived ability of a president and his level of experience before being elected POTUS. I'm sorry if I kind of dropped it on you, but I know that you are at least reasonable, unlike some of the other folks here who make this sort of claim.
The other thing that annoys me -- and I am NOT pointing the finger at you here -- is when VP talk focuses on what states a VP candidate can help out in. I've seen commentators on TV say that VP candidates almost never make the difference in any state, and then assess them in terms of what states they can help out in! The idea that Romney might help out in MI is laughable to me (I grew up in MI), but I could see him shoring up McCain's perceived weakness on the economy for voters nationwide.
I hope Gustav stays far away from you. It must be nerve-wracking.
DANIEL
when Pete bahaves & is light on the lecturing, then his posts are readable.
but lately Pete keeps throwing out all this garbage about liberal baby killers going straight to hell.
that is beyond offensive even if one can stomache the talking point spams.
but from time to time Pete can be on point, and on those rare ocassiona I even thank him for playing civilly.
Mule Rider & Jack Black & a few others are worse & post stuff just to be asses, granted. VA CON can actually be OK on days he is not cranky , but those days seem to be getting rarer recently... and he does tend to get on the last good nerve of many on this site when he flings crap which mucks up everything[IMHO]
if you want to chat with Pete, be my guest. best of luck to you !
Is jack black even making a point anymore? So...Bush led, and then he won! What a...surprise?
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