I don't usually do a lot of this, but several things that I've been meaning to link to:
The Associated Press reports on an obscure law in Ohio that allows voters to register and vote on the same day, and creates a week-long early voting window that Obama is poised to take advantage of.
Speaking of which, Justin Sizemore cites numbers from the Democratic primaries in North Carolina and finds that newly-registered voters turn out in considerably higher numbers than voters who were registered prior to 2008.
...and Chris Hayes references me in an article on Obama's voter registration efforts at The Nation.
Conservatives like Rush Limbaugh are figuring out what we reported a week ago: the Gang of 10 puts McCain in a very difficult position.
Wesley Clark Jr. implies that his dad had not been vetted (h/t Giordano).
PUMAs hang out with 9/11 thurthers in front of a Burger King.
Phil Vogels at the Huffington Post finds little historical relationship between experience and the quality of a Presidency.
Me on student radio in Denver.
It's probably not the war in Georgia that is driving McCain's numbers.
And I maintain that Evan Bayh is getting a raw deal from parts of the left, but here's a reason to oppose him.
Friday, August 15, 2008
Friday Afternoon Leftovers
-- Nate Silver at 6:39 PM
Labels: elections law
124 comments
Expect to see more on the Ohio early voting story and other states' early voting windows here soon...
What's the story with the Obama-Veneman jet? That's a terrible idea for a ticket if I've ever seen one; I mean, McCain and Lieberman could beat that.
Nate, WTF is with that plane picture?! Where did it come from?
I saw the story about Ohio just the other day. This is going to be hugh for the Democrats.
How many offices does Obama have open vs. McCann is Ohio?
Those Pumas need to do something about red eye. It could really derail their beautiful movement.
Re: GOP Veep candidate Pawlenty...
I have been mentioning on previous threads that TPaw would not assist McCain in MN or the upper midwest [IMO].
Now I just ran across the following post @ USA Election Polls website:
http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/
To quote verbatim in the next 3 paragraphs:
- "Minnesota does not appear to be a state that is in play, although the monthly averages show a tightening race in the state, Obama has been comfortably ahead for a while.
The interesting poll from the MN Rasmussen Reports poll was that Tim Pawlenty would likely hurt McCain's chances in Minnesota if he were selected as the VP. I was surprised to see that:
"Nearly a third of unaffiliated voters (32%), however, say putting Pawlenty on the GOP ticket makes them less likely to vote for it, while 22% say it makes them more likely to vote for McCain."..." -
----------------------------------
I am a born & raised MN DFLer [transplanted to FL via SoCal] and all I can say is, boy I sure hope McCain wastes his Veep card on TPaw. Not a hater, Tim is just a big ol' goofball & this is the moniker that even the MSM affectionately calls him in the Land o' Lakes. Good n' Plenty is basically harmless, unlike Norm Coleman...
PS - I trust PETE & his buds will not pass this stategic info along to GOP HQ when they go in tonight for more talking points to spam all over this site...
"PS - I trust PETE & his buds will not pass this stategic info along to GOP HQ when they go in tonight for more talking points to spam all over this site..."
Won't matter if they do - remember "Bin Ladin Determined to Strike In U.S."?
I saw the story about Ohio just the other day. This is going to be hugh for the Democrats.
How many offices does Obama have open vs. McCann is Ohio?
From a post a week ago: Obama has 33 offices in Ohio, McCain 9.
Nate´s proyection in Ohio is Obama 51, McCain 49. The Nate´s Electoral Vote proyecion is Obama 287, McCain 250.
One poll that McCain lead in Ohio, the Electoral Vote proyection here is McCain 270, Obama 267.
are you messing up with my head? what's the story behind the plane pic? is it real? made up? I'd think that if obama wanted a woman, and a real executive, he'd go with kathleen sebelius. even if i see the words obama/veneman out of obama's own mouth, i prolly won't believe him until i see her in the vp debate.
but then again, if that's the choice he's making, im ready to be convinced, and would give a few bucks to read inside his brain.
Pretty snarky piece by Cynthia Tucker about the Gang of 10 stuff. Shows a fundamental lack of understanding of why energy is a good issue for McCain, a la Nate's article yesterday.
For all the talk about how more supply wouldn't move prices, even the tepid Gang of 10 chatter has abetted the $30/barrel drop in crude price over the past few weeks.
Does that flight offer free trips to Beijing ???
Dario,
your math is off, but actually that is not how Nate's math works on this site.
His estimates are projections that factor in probability as derived from that simulations of outcomes run on his computer.
Right now, since Nate's projection is a close 51-49 Obama probability of victory in OH, the EV tracker is most likely assigning approximately 10 votes to each of McCain & Obama.
Sorry, this is a simplistic attempt to explain how statistical analysis is performed. But in a toss-up, the computer will not assign ALL of any states votes to one candidate unless you see that the state has a 100% projection for victory [Utah for REP, VT for DEM]. Few are that sure, although many are in high victory % like CA @ 98%.
Then you have rounding, etc as the EV's are assigned by computer - not by Nate. So if McCain pulls more than 10% ahead in OH [like Rasmussen claims in the last poll] & the computer projections that McCain has a 100% certain victory in OH THEN he would get all 20 EV.
Right now, this analysis is most likely awarding 10 to each candidate for projection purposes +/- [IMO]
That Plane Picture has to be photo shopped. You mean to tell me that the Obama camp left their plane out in plain(no pun intended) public view before the VP was announced? I don't buy it.
I would be jumping up and down if it did have Obama - Schweitzer.
On the subject of afterthoughts that may be of some importance. My job is making difficult diagnoses in an Emergency Room and making difficult real estate deals on days off. I've learned to look carefully at everything that I'm told or read and not to allow myself to rely on anyone else's evaluation.
Do we know if John McCain ever was in a position to develop strategy or to design a large scale operation that involved some complicated calculations? Or was he a fighter pilot who was told where he was to bomb and at what time. Has anyone ever done the research to develop what, if any, real "Commander In Chief" experience at war he has really had? Wes Clark called him on it but I'm not aware of any real investigative reporting to determine what, if anything, is really behind the persona that is winning him the "he's best able to fight a war and protect us" masses.
If it hasn't been done, it should be. This election is too important for us and, by virtue of that, the whole world.
Thanks,
Gregg
Bayh voted for war. There's no other reason necessary to tell him to sit down with Biden and Clinton applaud politely when his name is not announced as VP candidate.
On Ohio: Wow. Talk about a break for Obama! It'll be fascinating to see the turnout and exit polls on that...I imagine we'll get some good estimations by those, but no hard numbers.
If Obama does well enough...It could even drive expectations and discourage McCain voters in Ohio. If Obama wins Ohio, the rest should be a cakewalk. This is better news for him than Bob Barr!
On Georgia: I do think it is a factor for McCain's bump...Even if people aren't playing close attention, knowing that Russia is aggressive probably helps McCain. Especially if people aren't paying attention to the finer points. The article states that the level of interest is fairly comparable to other non-US wars, which have surely had an impact with voters (election year or not).
Besides, what else could be causing the bump? It's far more likely than Obama's week-long vacation.
PUMAs: Who would have guessed