The Politico has the text of a vitriolic letter in which the McCain campaign takes Andrea Mitchell and NBC to task for "giving voice to unsubstantiated, partisan claims in order to undercut John McCain".
However, rather than being refuted, Mitchell's claims would appear to have been confirmed by the McCain campaign in this letter.
These are Mitchell's comments as cited in McCain's letter:Mitchell: "The Obama people must feel that he didn't do quite as well as they might have wanted to in that context, because what they are putting out privately is that McCain may not have been in the cone of silence and may have had some ability to overhear what the questions were to Obama. He seemed so well-prepared." (NBC's "Meet The Press," 8/17/08)
There are two specific claims here -- neither of which, by the way, were Mitchell's, but instead reported as the speculations of the Obama campaign. Firstly, that "McCain may not have been in the cone of silence". Secondly, that McCain "may have had some ability to overhear what the questions were to Obama". Let's take these one at a time.
"McCain may not have been in the cone of silence".
This seems to be contradicted by the letter itself. Davis writes that "The fact is that during Senator Obama's segment at Saddleback last night, Senator McCain was in a motorcade to the event and then held in a green room with no broadcast feed."
McCain may have been in the "cone of silence" once he entered the green room (or he may not have been, as I'll describe below). However, this would not cover the first half-hour of Obama's interview, during which time McCain was in transit. What about being in a vehicle, or being surrounded by Secret Service personnel, places one within the "cone of silence"? Nothing, of course, which is why Rick Warren was taken by surprise today when he was asked why McCain had been in transit to the event rather than at the facility:
"[McCain] may have had some ability to overhear what the questions were to Obama."
McCain absolutely may have had some ability to overhear what the questions were to Obama. Davis tells us that McCain was in a motor vehicle during the first portion of Obama's interview. In a motor vehicle, one may use the radio, a cellphone, a Blackberry, Bluetooth Wireless, a Slingbox, and perhaps a satellite TV feed. Whether McCain actually used any of those devices, we have no idea. But he absolutely had the ability to use them, which is all that Mitchell had reported.
Also, note Davis's oddly-specific language to describe the situation in the green room. He says that the green room lacked a "broadcast feed". However, it presumably had cellphone and Internet access. If you want to get really technical, it perhaps also could have had a CCTV feed, which might be distinguished from a "broadcast feed".
This is an exceptionally bizarre response by the McCain campaign. Note, once more, that the McCain campaign has not refuted the substance of the reports. In fact, they seem to have confirmed substantial portions of them. But they are attempting to distract from the situation by saying that neither the media nor the Obama campaign has the standing to ask the question.
I don't really understand what the McCain campaign is trying to accomplish. Putting out a letter like this would seem to increase the amount of scrutiny on the issue. There are much better times to play the "blame the media" card, i.e., when the facts are more on their side.
Do the McCain folks figure that this is a relatively minor, he-said, she-said story, and therefore using it to eat up oxygen from some other, more impactful story that might break tomorrow? Say an Obama VP choice?
Or are they acknowledging that this is a big deal and already full-on into damage control mode? I can't imagine what additional details there really are to be reported in this story. The two exceptions would be if they think Warren is going to say something damaging on Larry King tomorrow, or if there is circumstantial evidence to contradict their timeline -- say, that the hotel that McCain was staying at before the forum was very close to the Saddleback Church, and would not require a half-hour in transit? I don't mention these things because I think they're particularly likely ... but since it's very easy to maintain plausible deniability in this instance ("we had our cellphones off"), why not simply deny the story?
8.18.2008
Did McCain's Campaign Just Confirm Andrea Mitchell's Reporting?
by Nate Silver @ 1:12 AM...see also controversy, mccain
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216 comments
This seems like the latest in a long line of McCampaign gaffes.
No Mark. This seems like the latest in a long line of Nate proving he's chasing stories down the looney-left road, and that he's nothing more than an ideological oaf and a shit-for-brains to boot.
Nate, stop trying to make a mountain out of a molehill. The Obama campaign is trying to make excuses for their candidate's poor performance.
Nate, as problematic as it is to ban someone for insulting you, you really should do that in this case. It's a clear violation of your comment policy by Mule Rider here, and it's not like he's been debating in good faith to date.
Nate,
Thanks for the latest update.
Very odd indeed to handle it in this manner.
If nothing to hide, then why issue such a 'nuanced' partial denial...
Why, indeed ?
I listened to the replay last night and immediately posted my impression that McCain seemed to be over-anxious & prepared on point to address the audience even before Pastor Rick finished asking the 'questions'.
We shall see if this becomes a loud meme with long legs tomorrow... and pulls in even more the his 'gaffes'.
Any further word on whether McCain also plagarized his 'cross in the dirt' POW tale from Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn's 'The Gulag Archipelago' which told a eerily similar story that happened before McCain's allegedly did ?
Amen, David.
Nate and all his minions wrote consistently about how much of a non-event this was previously.
Funny how a 72-year old senile fuddy duddy who was a below average student "maybe" getting 30 minutes or so of prep time compared to the greatest US poltical orator since William Jennings Bryan and a man of supposed high intelligence and charisma is now hot shit.
Has it occurred to anyone yet that all McCain needed to listen in was his cell phone.
If he wanted to monitor Obama's responses, all he would need is someone holding a phone up to a TV on one end, and him listening to it on a call to his cell phone.
The beauty of this is, he's always seen on his phone. So no one would suspect anything. (No one would interrupt him, as well.)
It would be easy to find out if he got a call to his phone, but he might have been using another, bought by someone outside the campaign, and used only that once.
It's ironic that Pastor Warren is asking us to take McCain's word on the matter. It gives a new meaning to him calling it a "Faith Forum"?
I can't believe a site that is dedicated to looking at this race on a somewhat objective basis based on demographics and voter registration would even concern itself with something so trivial. I guess it shows that everyone's a partisan.
Michael,
I think I've debated VERY FAIRLY to date.
You guys are running with a highly questionable accusation full of innuendo that was parroted by Andrea Mitchell, whose only source on the matter was Obama staffers a bit upset he didn't perform as well relative to McCain as they thought he should, all this after saying it was a (YAAAAAWWWWWWNNNN) event...I think the case is clear in the argument against the story.
Nate you left out the best part:
"The insinuation from the Obama campaign that John McCain, a former prisoner of war, cheated is outrageous," Ms. Wallace said.
John Mccain is somehow above criticism because he crashed his plane?
Millco88 I completely agree. Stories such as these shouldn't be posted on a statistics website. This is supposed to be about the numbers and the campaigns, not shameless lies and mudslinging accusations.
Mule Rider - the forum itself is inconsequential. Lying about it in this way would be consequential - it would go directly to John McCain's integrity and as we all know - many Americans vote not on the issues but on "character."
Michael,
And an amen to millco88 as I couldn't have said it better. That's why I put up such an angry rebuttal (not in good faith?) in addressing the issue.
This is just foolish for a site that's supposed to be uber-objective and following polls, demographics, registration, etc.
This event was a squib, a nothing. Just publicity for the evangelical crowd. The old man may not have been exactly where it was implied, and he may (or may not) have gotten a little bit of a lead on a few questions.
It's highly unlikely he would take advantage of the situation when he's already on his home field. To run wild with this story is just foolish and speaks volumes to the credibility of this site for choosing to make it an issue.
I was surprised by how well mccain spoke, and whether he listened in or not--who knows? But really, who cares?
Don't mind the conservative garble Nate, this thing has the capacity to be big news. McCain's response accusing well respected Andrea Mitchell of partisan play is ludicrous. They see the possibility of a controversy here with lots of legs.
The fact is, because McCain nor Warren acknowledged McCains absence while Obama was on stage, and the fact McCain was supposed to be in a room of silence and was not. And the fact everyone acknowledges McCain did a bang-up job, much better than anyone has seen him in a long time all makes a nice circumstantial case. The evidence is mounting.
Even if McCain is perceived to have cheated he's in deep. McCain is running on character, if it takes a hit, he's wounded, maybe mortally.
If you guys are unhappy about what Nate and Sean choose to post about, the X button to close the window is right here ----->
If you don't like it, don't read it.
People need to remember this blog started as an offshoot from DailyKos. Therefore, its commentary is apt to be left leaning. No one is forced to read it. You could just look at the sidebars, w/ out the analysis.
Ben,
And if you choose to blindly accept all the ignorant left-wing partisan bullshit parroted on here and keep yourself among the hordes of dumbasses in existence, I've got about 1200 acres of ocean front property I'd like to sell you in North Dakota. Send me your contact information and I'll provide more details.
Ben,
I think the complaint is that this sort of story is NOT what they typically post. The whole point of this site is that it's supposed to be somewhat objective with a great deal of emphasis on demos, voter registration, GOTV, etc. If you want to discuss rumors, there are numerous other sites out there on both sides. I've liked this site because it tries to remain above it all and just focus on the nuts and bolts of the election. I just hope this is an isolated incident and not a trend.
To paraphrase Han Solo---"Something must have hit pretty close to the mark, to get Mule Rider all riled up like that."
I think there is another possible explanation to this story. Could the McCain camp possibly be ginning up the "media bias" canard in order to deflect attention from McCain's Solzhenitsyn cribbing from turning into his own private Bosniagate?
As I said above, character questions aside from any white lies and/or prep time McCain may have benefitted from, if a 72-year old codger who you all daily accuse of being ignorant and senile, and is also a self-acknowledged sub-par student, somehow gets 30 minutes of extra prep time for questioning that he wasn't supposed to get but is matched up against the greatest orator in generations, as well as one of the most (supposedly) charismatic and intelligent men to boot, and you're crying foul, then you've got bigger things to worry about.
if I recall nate does publicly support obama. so sorry if you don't like it, but this site will lean left somewhat. if you don't like it go somewhere else to voice your opinion.
MULE,
now you are just being an ASS.
knock it off & behave yourself.
you tried to character-assasinate Andrea Mitchell-Greenspan above.
She is hardly a lefty sympathizer. In fact, she has been much tougher on Obama this cycle & kid-gloves on McCain for years.
In fact, IF it had been Obama in the hot water, Andrea would have been all over him like a bad stinkeye instead of mild treatment like McCain is getting on this from the MSM so far.
I still say that McCain needs to blame Bush & Cheney & illegal warrantless wiretapping for this incident...
Mule Rider, Senator McCain would like you to know that the bridge you bought will be shipping Monday.
I'm so sick of the republican shit. The party of values my ass. If McCain was listening in to Obama's portion of the show thats reprehensible, totally dishonest, and goes goes straight to character and integrity.
For someone who wants to run the country to cheat at a faith forum is disgusting. I have no doubt McCain cheated. I'd lay money on it if it could be proven, but for now it can't. Attacking the media is not going to blow this over. NBC ain't gonna roll over for GOP intimidation like CNN does. I hope this blows up tomorrow big time.
Mule, dress it up however you like it. But people don't like cheaters. If John McCain is caught as a cheater then that's a huge mark against his character. Especially when combined with The Keating Five & the fact he cheated on his first wife (which someone --- not the Obama campaign directly --- side should be making sure everyone knows about.)
"You guys are running with a highly questionable accusation full of innuendo that was parroted by Andrea Mitchell, whose only source on the matter was Obama staffers"
The point of Nate's post is that the McCain campaign confirmed that he wasn't in the "cone of silence," which was at the core of Mitchell's reporting. Regardless of whether McCain had inside information, Warren claimed -- and McCain seemed to tacitly confirm -- that he was backstage without access to any media. That clearly wasn't true. Now the McCain campaign is going after NBC, which seems odd, given that Mitchell was right, essentially. If reporters got in trouble every time they parroted campaign talking points then every D.C. reporter would be in serious hot water. I agree with Davis's fundamental complaint: reporters shouldn't be mouthpieces. But can the McCain campaign credibly make that case? And isn't it bad politics in any event?
Curious stuff, even if Mule Rider thinks we're all batty. I wonder what one has to do to qualify as Nate's minion?
Very suspicious but unlikely we will ever get anything that proves he was briefed ahead of time. And even if he did, most of what McCain said was just bits of his stump speeches anyway - he probably mutters them in his sleep.
What is interesting is that this 'Christian moment' that so profoundly influences him now was never mentioned in his stories about his capture originally. Talk about a flip-flop, I think this one involved time travel!
As to his 'showing' McCain resorted to pandering jingoism soundbites... sure that influences some but those that it does aren't the ones Senator Obama was trying for. Thinking evangelicals are really all Seantor Obama can expect to sway and his responses were exactly the kind of thing they needed to hear.
the fact is that McCain wasn't where he promised he would be. Anything beyond that is obviously conjecture, but that's why you don't break your promises in the first case.
Interesting stuff.
I don't think it's unthinkable that McCain's team are happy for this story to get a bit of play; Nobody can prove that he cheated, and even if he did, I'm not sure that swing voters will see this as proof that the man's an unethical scumbag even if they believe it - they'll probably think it's just politics. But it plays up the narrative that McCain won and Obama lost, and provides a way for that narrative to reach some of the vast majority of people who didn't watch it in the first place.
Finally, these non-electoral-projections-done-right stories are great, but it might be worth moving them to a different blog, since they:
a) probably have a different audience to the statistical stuff.
b) attract some very excitable commentators who lower the signal-to-noise ratio.
Sedi,
Don't worry. You are qualified.
GIVER,
actually Nate has publicly disclosed his private partisanship.
DEM - as accused above, but that is also why Nate/538 is so attractive to Scott Rasmussen as a polling 'partner'...
MATT J H: "I have no doubt McCain cheated."
Perhaps you'd like to share the smoking gun.
My fellow Americans,
If you are outraged by this topic, and want to read only topics that have to do with polling and statistics, there's a very simple solution. Look at the tags before you start reading. If Nate and/or Sean want to talk about events and controversies in the campaign, that's their right. I'd like to hear about it, as do many others. If you're going to denounce the story in these comment threads...Do try to get the facts right. Don't just deny it all, saying McCain was in the "cone of silence" the entire time, or that it is absolutely out of the question that McCain would ever cheat. (Proven wrong about 3 decades ago.) Next thing you know, you'll be denying there was ever a "faith forum" with Warren, and saying that we've always been at war with East-Asia. :-P
As it stands, it appears that McCain had the opportunity to cheat. An opportunity he shouldn't have had. The questions are, 1) "Why did he have that opportunity?" and 2) "Did he use that opportunity to cheat?"
McCain has put Obama's honor and character on the table this campaign; McCain's honor and character are open to being questioned because he took the conversation there.
When Nate chats with me, he writes, "Dear Ideological Oaf..." and I reply with "Dear Shit-for-Brains..."
So there's irony. I hate it when someone co-opts our pet terms of endearment.
Seriously MATT J H, in order to have no doubt, you usually need proof. But I guess for you lefties, the only thing you need is some slander from MSNBC, and bam, no doubt at all.
DCM,
No, not trying to character assassinate Andrea Mitchell. Didn't mean for it to come across like that.
But Nate. Yeah. The bulls-eye is on him. For hypocrisy if nothing else. He basically addressed this thing like a non-event and stated why it was what it was...and then proceeded to drag this story into the discussion framework as if it's the next Watergate.
Give me a break.
MULEHEAD,
hey there, you use "parrot" above to bash us back.
That's MY whack-a-mole moniker of choice for troll behavior as you know... can I have it back ?
Mule Rider, are you defending a candidate who is an adulterer, was bought by Keating and has more flip-flops than an under-age Chinese gymnastic tema heading off for the beach? Integrity? What integrity?
DCM,
Yeah, you can have it back. But I had to borrow it. I think it was necessary in this case.
Seriously, this whole idea was just innuendo from the Obama campaign, and they are way less than serious about pursuing it...sounds like just a little bit of sour grapes for McCain coasting in an environment he was supposed to have the edge anyway.
Anyway, Nate's "parroting" this rumor into a story. Trying to give something legs that isn't even alive.
SEAN,
I could not agree more !
I was just complaining to MuleHead [Rider] that he was co-opting my favorite term of endearment for trolls ["parrot"].
Appreciate your intellect, dedication & wit on this site.
Keep up the good work, bud !
Davis has sent an email to NBC and the talking point is a headline on Drudge already. I'm sure its been forwarded to Hannity, Rove and the gang.
Interesting. Even Mule Rider can't defend the integrity of the adulterous, corrupt flipflopping McCain. Why am I not surprised?
morzer,
I'm picking this fight less because of any desire to defend McCain but more to call Nate on the load of bullshit he is for running this kind of site and delving into it the way he has.
If he wants to "integrate" it the way he claims he runs things, he should first wait and see if it becomes a big story. If it doesn't, regardless of his opinion, he should let it go. If it does become big, then I'm sure it starts affecting the polling of the candidates. Then, I'm sure there's a story to jump on about polling effects.
Until then, for Nate to take it and run with it in a opinionated partisan free-for-all speaks volumes to the lack of credibility he has and this site has anymore.
Must have been quite the panic at the McCain Bunker when they discovered that little Markie Salter had convinced the old fool that he had been shown the cross in the dust. Maybe in future McCain will learn to stick to the truth and do his own writing?
At what point does following every rumor start to damage someone's credibility regarding objective analysis?? That's my big complaint with following this story on this particular site. How long before "rumors" are factored into the model??
MULE,
Thanks for your response. I use that term [parrot] rather than to use something derogatory when I get steamed.
Tonight is now a rough patch for your guy after a pretty good week.
So do try to keep it all in perspective, and stay BUT play nice, OK ?
Although on this thread the score tonight is probably 40-love DEM, maybe you can break back & win in the end ?
David said...
Seriously MATT J H, in order to have no doubt, you usually need proof. But I guess for you lefties, the only thing you need is some slander from MSNBC, and bam, no doubt at all.
I have no doubt because of the out of the ordinary job McCain did last night. I have been watching republican politics for 8 months. I have seen all the GOP debates,McCain is town halls, and last night he was by far at the best I have seen. A friend of mine actually commented during the show that "It was like he knew the questions his answers were so good"
Now we have an explanation for this sudden crisp John McCain. Why was he so much better than any other time we had sen him. Why did the bumbling fool look so good last night?
Because he knew the questions and was told what to say, duh. Even a 4 year old can put 2 and 2 together. Many people are convicted on circumstantial evidence, and of that there is a lot, and I'm sure more to come.
Morzer, your post didn't even require responding to. If you knew anything about the Keating 5 scandal, you'd know he was held hostage by the democrats because they didn't want it to be a democrat-only scandal even though they knew he was innocent.
His cheating is inexcusable, and he has admitted to it, is still on very good terms with his first wife, and has tried to make up for it for sure and has done nothing to hide the fact that he did it.
And as for flip-flopping, McCain has done so on a couple of issues, though never whole-heartedly. Immigration and the tax cuts, but that is nothing compared to practically any other politician.
Mulemouth, Nate Silver has always been honest about his affiliations and views. If you have specific proof that he's cooking the numerical books, show your workings. If not, you aren't forced to come here. Playing the ranting fool in someone else's house generally gets you a boot in the ass. If you don't like it here, no-one is forcing you to stay - ok? Now, any defense of the corrupt adulterous serial flipflop artist formerly known as "Songbird" McCain?
FLASH, FLASH, FLASH,
MCCAIN SCRATCHED HIS ASS DURING FORUM, AND ACCORDING TO NATE SILVER THIS IS A DIRECT CORRELATION TO SOMEBODY CHEATING. I said it earlier Nate, you are a Homer for OBAMA, and must be working for his campaign.
Word of warning, are you prepared to be thrown under the bus.
McCain kicks Obama's ass during this forum and Nate SILVER claims he is cheating. No surprise. I'm sure you'll be invited back on Keith Odumbermann to explain if x is divided by y before Obama picked his nose and McCain scratched his ass then McCain obviously cheated.
Sour grapes Nate. Stick to your numbers because you are not ready for prime time!!
McCain's response makes plenty of strategic sense to me. It's sort of a variation of the old lawyers adage that if you don't have the law on your side pound the facts, if you don't have the facts on your side pound the law, if you don't have the facts or the law on your side pound the table. The McCain campaign is pounding the table here.
In fact, they're hoping to accomplish something larger here: to make the media feel that the very notion of questioning the integrity of McCain and his campaign is somehow out of bounds.
And they have every reason to think they can get the media to buy this idea. Last Friday on PBS's NewsHour, the WaPo's Ruth Marcus appeared with National Review's Rich Lowery in their weekly political analysis segment. Here's what Marcus, ostensibly the liberal panelist, had to say when asked about McCain foreign policy adviser Randy Scheunemann's earlier role as a lobbyist for the government of Georgia: "On the substantive level, anybody who knows Senator McCain knows that he would have the same views on Georgia no matter what lobbyist came to talk to him. He feels this one in his bones. And he wasn't going to -- this is not a shift in position because some lobbyist came and whispered in his ear."
The notion that McCain is incorruptible is, needless to say, a potentially extraordinarily powerful tool for his campaign. Already much of the press more or less has this view of McCain. But an image of incorruptibility can be fragile; any piece of double dealing might shatter it. The McCain campaign can only guarantee this image of their candidate if they can bully the press into self-censoring in the face of any apparent corruption, however small.
So I'm puzzled by Nate's puzzlement at this letter. It's exactly what I'd expect. And it just might work.
DCM,
Thanks for being shrewdly amicable in your reply.
First, McCain ain't "my guy."
And it's hardly an undisputed anything for Dems against McCain.
So far, this is just a nonsense story. For it to have legs, a lot of things will need to happen.
Considering, and I'm taking this out of Nate and the other experts' mouth, that this was mostly a non-event just meant to give a little bit of air time to the guys in front of evangelicals because of their respective friendships with Warren, I bet it won't even make the morning cup of coffee.
Sorry, a non-event is a draw where I come from.
Matt J.H.,
Actually, I've seen him in townhalls, on t.v. and one in person, and he is just as good in them as he was at Saddleback. Trying to use that as proof really is ridiculous.
Honestly I think he got the questions long before. Someone had obviously practiced this with him. He never reacts like that in town halls. You can tell when someones been coached, especially when they're answering questions before they're even asked.
Why attack the media? thats what you do to bury a story through intimidation. Why such a strong response to such a tepid statement by Mitchell. A little overkill I do believe. Like "Holy shit if it gets out we cheated we are fu***d!"
That statement sounded like a panicking campaign. Panic indeed.
Milco,
Only polls are factored into the model...This is just a discussion. It's a political blog; political discussions happen. Some of us appreciate insight on matters related to the campaign outside of the narrow lens of poll numbers/statistics/organization, if Nate or Sean are willing to write an article analyzing a situation.
MULE,
It is not fair & balanced to personally attack Nate & Sean for their blog content.
This post & others have a subject that is a disclaimer of content & the context is whatever the reader takes from it.
538 is their site so we play by their rules or take our balls & go somewhere else.
You may not appreciate the train of content tonight BUT how is this any different than the Obama Messiah themes that your team has been spamming around especially while Barack was in Europe.
I also scan RCP, and the REPS went to town on the Berlin speech as well as many other percieved 'gaffes' real or imaginary...
this is a minor return of service. expect more of a strong offense from the DEMS on every front from now through election night, my friend...
Oh poor David. Those nasty Democrats forced McCain to accept 100,000 bucks! Oh, the wronged innocence! And did they also force him to do favors for Keating? To go for luxury trips? Tell me, do you spend your nights thinking up this sort of pathetic nonsense?
A couple of issues? McCain has flip-flopped on everything and anything throughout his long and undistinguished career. Didn't you notice that the lists of the more obvious flip-flops have hit the 60+ mark? That's not a candidate we can believe in! Please, try again with a serious post, not this palsied attempt at defending an adulterous, corrupt, flip-flopping plagiarist.
Jack Black, are you still whining about the fact that McCain looks like a fake every time he speaks? Ever noticed that most Republicans don't trust him? Ever wonder why? Or is such curiosity just a little too dangerous to your cretinous view of the world?
McCain was answering the questions before they were asked, what more proof do you need?
WARREN TO OBAMA: 80 PERCENT OF AMERICANS RECENT POLL SAID THEY BELIEVE IN MERIT PAY FOR TEACHERS. I’M NOT ASKING DO YOU THINK ALL TEACHERS SHOULD GET A RAISE. DO YOU THINK BETTER TEACHERS SHOULD BE PAID BETTER? THEY SHOULD BE MAKING MORE THAN POOR TEACHERS?
WARREN TO MCCAIN: ABOUT 80 PERCENT OF AMERICA SAYS THEY SUPPORT MERIT PAY FOR THE BEST TEACHERS. NOW, I DON’T WANT TO HEAR YOUR STUMP SPEECH ON EDUCATION--
MCCAIN: YES. YES. AND FIND BAD TEACHERS ANOTHER LINE OF WORK.
Here McCain was answering three questions when Warren hadn't even finished the first question.
McCain clearly heard the questions in advances.
Don't Christians only make up 10% of the population in Viet Nam? What are the odds a Christian was guarding McCain in the Gulag?
How come he didn't relate the story of when he was asked for names that he named the Fearsome Foursome, Lamar Lundy, Rosie Grier, Merlin Olson and Deacon Jones. He was in SoCal after all
Mule and David,
Two posts tonight by SILVER. Somebody in the Obama campaign called Nate and told him to start making waves.
he should stick to his numbers and talk about why Ohio has crashed and burned for Odumbo instead of worrying about a non story.
This whole thing sounds like desperation on the part of O Dumbo's campaign.
Just remember, It was above my pay grade before it was below my pay grade. Election over.
For those of you on the conservative ened of the spectrum who are arguing that this is a non-story, please just ask yourselves seriously how you would react if the situation were reversed: if McCain had gone first, and Warren had promised that Obama was in a "cone of silence", and then it turned out he wasn't, and was instead in a motorcade where he would have had full opportunity to listen in to McCain's interview and gain a HUGE advantage, would you still think it was a non-story? Really?
Unless someone from his campaign blabs, we will never know for sure whether McCain did in fact "cheat". But the fact that he had full opportunity to do so means that the forum was fundamentally compromised.
And, it is deeply weird that McCain wouldn't even leave his hotel for such a high-profile event until after Obama had started speaking. Imagine the embarrassment to his campaign if he'd gotten stuck in L.A. traffic, and Obama's hour had come and gone and Rev. Warren had been forced to stammer in front of the entire nation: "Well, folks, it appears that Sen. McCain hasn't arrived yet...yes, I know I said he was in a 'cone of silence'...but, well...he wasn't..." Why would McCain take that risk unless he had something very specific to gain from it?
In any case, Rick Warren owes the country a full explanation and an apology. There seems to be no question that he publicly lied by saying McCain "had been placed in a cone of silence." (I'm not sure if he's claiming not to have known McCain hadn't arrived, but it is nearly impossible to believe he DIDN'T know. Even at a church as large as Saddleback, I'd think the arrival of a Presidential candidate with all his Secret Service and entourage would be hard to miss. And who starts such a highly publicized forum without being aware that one of the two main participants has yet to arrive??)
Is McCain Now Copying Solzhenitsyn?
http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/politicalinsider/2008/08/is-mccain-now-copying-solzheni.html
McCain is a Plagiarist ....
DCM,
Aaaagghhh....I want to be civil with you, but I want to pull my hair out when you refer to the Reps as "my team."
They are not. I'm an independent. I just attack partisan shenanigans, although I admit I'm usually far more inclined to attack left-wing nuts because I lean more conservative.
Anyway, my campaign motto...
Stay at Home '08
Hey Republicans - would you be bitching and calling Nate names if he were going tough on Obama for potentially getting caught in a lie?
You guys listen to FOX News and Rush Limbaugh stroke and coddle your guys, and you freak the fuck out when a "liberal commentator" scrutinizes any Republican at the expense of going after the Democrat, no matter what the situation is. Talk about a double standard.
If you don't like this site, crank up your Limbaugh and buzz off. Better yet, get a job.
By the looks of it the McCain camp just indirectly affirmed that the claim coming from numerous sources are indeed TRUE ...
By the looks of it the McCain camp just indirectly affirmed that the claim coming from numerous sources are indeed TRUE ...
Vegna,
Actually, I think it's a lot more than polls that go into the model -- demos and voter registration matter as well. It's why this site made such a splash during the primaries -- the model didn't rely solely on the polls.
While I have no problem with political discussions, I just don't think Nate should be the one driving them unless they're based on his demonstrated areas of expertise, e.g., polls, demos, GOTV, ad buys, etc. If he's just going to discuss every tick and tack of the race regarding every rumor, it kind of defeats the whole purpose of "projections done right". Bringing up every rumor just seems similar to virtually every other political site out there and it gets tiresome after a while.
Now he can choose to note my objection or not. It's certainly his right. But I'm probably not alone in my disappointment with how Nate has handled this particular story.
Put this with the cross story and we have quite a little narrative. The lying cheater. I think even Americans would vote for a Marxist Muslim over a lying Cheater. Maybe the media will get over its worship of McCain to actually start calling the bungalling idiot what he is.
jack,
Thanks for that. And amen that Nate should stick to figuring out polling in Ohio, Colorado, et al than trying to figure out how to make 30 minutes of prep time for a Q & A session the biggest Republican scandal since Watergate.
WARREN TO MCCAIN: ABOUT 80 PERCENT OF AMERICA SAYS THEY SUPPORT MERIT PAY FOR THE BEST TEACHERS. NOW, I DON’T WANT TO HEAR YOUR STUMP SPEECH ON EDUCATION--
MCCAIN: YES. YES. AND FIND BAD TEACHERS ANOTHER LINE OF WORK.
Oh my. Who was it who was asking for a smoking gun? McCain obviously knew THAT question ahead of time and we all really do need to know how, right Mule Rider?
Mule Rider,
Pay no attention to DCM because he is nothing but a shrill for the Odumbo camp.
McCain did nothing wrong. It was Odumbo's own answers that buried him.
It's above my pay grade before it was below my pay grade.
MULE,
my pleasure conversing when it is amicable. I respect your post-partisanship if that is what you want to call your position...
You may be right that this is a 'draw' at the moment.
Last night the 'Parrots' were claiming it as a blow-out victory for Mccain, so we will accept a draw...
BUT, Nate as a partisan with an opening & a means to deliver a message cannot be faulted for assisting in putting emphasis into building up this possible 'gaffe' into a real meme with loud volume & long legs.
Nate has a rep now that gives him MSM cred, so by posting this blog it is bound to get picked up & repeated ad nauseum.
Fair & balanced ??? well, leave it to others to decide as this may be red meat for feeding the beast.
Yeah Nate ! ps - Nate did not start this mess, but as a respectable netroots blogger he has a 'duty' to cover it [hehe]
also great marketing for Nate's blog, just as the 'event' was for Warren's book sales...
capitalism in action...
Mark said: "would you be bitching and calling Nate names if he were going tough on Obama for potentially getting caught in a lie?"
One problem, Mark. Nate wouldn't even consider going down that road, so I guess we're left to speculate!
Mule Rider,
Then speculate away.
Oh poor jack black ... It looks like you are one of the "few" [sic] people who DID NOT get Sen. Obama's "pay grade" comment ...
In your haste to find something to confront the senator with you FAILED to grasp that he was talking about "someone higher than him", someone some refer to as GOD. He , Mr. Obama, was NOT at the level to state unequivocally that life begins at conception because HE IS NOT GOD ...
Stop taking things Sen. Obama says literally because the man is a highly INTELLECTUAL body who makes statements requiring more cranial activity than a regular person like you and I (even though I understood what he meant ) ...
On a side note, I could have taken the McCain "$5 million to be rich" statement and mangled it to prove he was out of touch with reality BUT childish as that statement may have been I got that he was just joking ...
Odumbo has been lying since he won the nomination. Every twist and turn he has made is one big lie. Nate Silver has never covered ODumbo's flip flops.
That's because Nate is a Homer for Odumbo. The list of lies by Odumbo is long, but the greatest is his Christian faith.'
First, a true Christian would never say a Christian is clinging to his bible. Never, Never, Never!!!!!!
Second, Warren did him a favor by not asking him this question. What is it Odumbo, do Christians cling to their bibles, apparently you don't.
Mark,
I have no doubt Nate would spin any discussion in Obama's favor, lying, cheating, or whatever, if that was the case, so either way I'd just be on here bitching about his biased coverage. Is that what you want to hear? The lines are drawn in the sand, I guess.
Bob,
Smoking gun? You'll need more than that. As somebody mentioned before, these questions are right out of the playbook...they've heard 'em before a hundred times, so it's no surprise they can kick back an answer without hearing it all the way to the question mark.
You gotta do better than that.
Milco,
I may have overgeneralized in the last post, but I do know that this site does not recognize one candidate or the other as having specific advantages or disadvantages. (+2 for eloquence advantage, -2 for Muslim rumor, etc...Both candidates are subjected to the same parameters and the polls are factored into them.)
"Two posts tonight by SILVER. Somebody in the Obama campaign called Nate and told him to start making waves."
Ha! I know I'm an addict, but I hardly think that 538.com would be a prime place for getting a presidential campaign's message out (no offense intended, Nate). I guess it hasn't dawned on you that some people actually have their own original thoughts and don't have to be handed talking points by the higher ups. You should give it a try.
HillaryBitch for Odumbo,
I got his comment. It was the comment of person who refuses to follow his faith. A true Christian knows that answer. Odumbo is no Christian. Even that flaky, weird ass preacher that he followed for twenty years gets that answer.
PRESIDENTS DO NOT GIVE ANSWERERS LIKE THAT TO TOUGH QUESTIONS.
The GOP talking points about how the race is over stopped for a while?
This blog was started because Nate is a Liberal with specialized knowledge in statistics. I don't think anyone can question the accuracy of the numbers, and if you do, bite me.
To be honest this blog was a lot better before the trolls came. We actually had intelligent conversation about how the Primary was going and about politics. Now its Conservative trolling.Last night every post was about McCain's brilliant performance. Now today you won't even consider the possibility of cheating?
McCain was better last night than any time since the election started back in January. And he had ample opportunity apparently to hear the first half hour and be coached on the answeres. Even if it naver happened, its a plausible case. McCain had motive and opportunity. Thats all thats required.
P.S. He's gonna have to answer why he was late to such a big event. Secret Service arn't known to be late.
MULE,
OK, I will assume you are what you claim to represent tonight.
Jack on the other hand is just a braying ass as usual though...
but MULE, actually you are wrong about Nate & Obama. Nate & Sean have both been rather harsh on Team Obama & Barack himself for perceived strategic faults & appearance of being 'soft' in the campaign to date.
They mean it as constructive criticism of course, but they have been on his case numerous times to take the game to McCain & the GOPers.
And they lay their proposed playbook out for all to see.
Look, Nate/538 has parterned sorta with Scott Rasmussen/RR who is even more of a partisan GOPer with his own agenda. Man, I could not do that or allow Rasmussen to 'use' the hot 538 predictive analysis cred along with the 'nuanced' data that RR releases.
Tell me that the questions & commentary on RR are not skewed & show partisan bias ???
but that is clever marketing by Scott R. to sell his premium package to political junkies too.
I have to admit, I read Nate's post and don't have time to read the comments...
But it seems the pecota guru is parsing language to find a nuance that wasn't intended.
Were the McCain campaign to respond to specific inquiries with this wording it would be one thing.
But if this is a letter that they sent in the spirit of a demand letter to a reporter, it would seem they were intentionally breaking the seal on a can of worms.
If he was watching, the prudent move would be to admit the impulse or flatly deny it.
To craft plausible denials in the age of a dogged blogosphere seems to be a death march as everyone with two cents invested will attempt to trace the time line.
I'm guessing that the professionals in charge of this campaign have a MUCH better grasp of the situation than I do and wouldn't attempt to wiggle out of a minor goof that, if substantiated, could be an election deciding noose (if a candidate explicitly lies to the electorate before he's even in office, I can't imagine he gets many votes).
I'm a lurker.(That means I don't normally post.)but this little exchange between the rational and the irrational is tempting me to speak. First, this is Nate's site--he pays for it, and like his yard, he can put up whatever campaign signs he wants, It's an excellent, well-run site and up til recently, not an acrimonious one.Unfortunately, the poisonous personal rhetoric of the right seems to have found the internet, and comments like Mule Rider's are par for the course. Don't you people have sites of your own? I don't watch or listen to Bill O'Reilly or Glenn Beck because I strongly disagree with their points of view and the way they choose to express them. Nonetheless I don't feel a deep need to go post on their websites and tell them they're idiots. I don't see any point in bashing my head against that wall.I don't understand why people like MR search out sites where they disagree with 95% of the posters and then get irate about it. If you don't want to hear left-wing positions, there's a simple solution. It's called Fox. Spare us the outrage, please. Rick Davis has enough for the entire human race.
Vegna,
I realize that. I just want to make sure it stays that way. On this blog, I think it would be better if Nate just stuck to what he does best. If he wants to get into political rumors, there are a lot of places for that, and with his newfound celebrity, I'm sure Nate would have quite a following.
I'll use a baseball analogy in reference to Nate's other work. If a guy who has been focused on the numbers regarding baseball suddenly starts talking about how one team is stealing signs or how the umpires are screwing them over, wouldn't you start to wonder about the model?? It's not a perfect analogy, but I think it gets to my point.
Wait a second...Did I just read Jack Black talk about Obama's team sending Nate talking points? :-P Conspiracy theory much? What's next, will someone compliment me by saying I'm an Obama strategist, trying to laugh off the "brilliant theory"?
And I thought you were denouncing "baseless rumors" in this thread!
Milco,
Point taken, but I don't think that's a danger...I wouldn't want to see the blog go in that direction either, btw.
Madre,
Post of the month.
Well that's a dangerous gambit. The McCain camp letter doesn't address or deny the issue of not being in the cone of silence. They've gone straight to defense of cheating, but aren't denying the circumstances that brought about that charge. I would have to guess that this letter was sent before Rick Warren was interviewed on CNN tonight. The whole tone is one of "attack the messenger", in this case Andrea Mitchell.
None of the partisans here seem to be addressing the main issue, either. Why wasn't John McCain there from the start? What was the hold-up? If that hadn't happened then this whole snafu isn't being discussed. But the lack of simple acknowledgment that he was late arriving throws more doubt on Sen. McCain. This thing has legs now, and a large part of that is due to this botched response out of the McCain camp.
As somebody mentioned before, these questions are right out of the playbook...
Really? That specific 3 part question is asked repeatedly in the same order with the same emphasis?I am incredulous but a few urls could set me straight - some examples of that exact same formatted series of questions being asked to McCain would be great... if it is so common it should be dirt simple to find examples of same.
so it's no surprise they can kick back an answer without hearing it all the way to the question mark.
But that's not the case here, is it? All 3 questions were never even asked to McCain just the preamble to the questions. I mean they can't even do that on Jeopardy ;)
No again, its a smoking gun (which if you think about it just means incriminating evidence not absolute proof) and its one that has to be dealt with.
So prove you are right - find some indication that there is a standard 3 part question that has been asked so repeatedly during this campaign on this subject that a they can be answered accurately before hearing the questions or the order they're asked. Or possibly Warren and confirmation by Senator Obama might say this exact series of questions were in the materials both speakers were given to prepare for the forum? That would explain it too...
Sure there may be an explanation for this smoking gun, but just saying there might be an innocent one doesn't cut it. McCain is going to have to explain how he answered a series of questions before it was asked,
You gotta do better than that.
Madre,
Fair enough. But the problem is that Nate claims to be on the "high road" where all the fact-based numerical mumbo-jumbo is.
He has every right to delve into this kind of topic filled with scant innuendos, but the natural reaction for those of us who try to follow his "objective" analysis is to doubt when he brings this kind of nonsense into the discussion.
That's all. It just makes what he's trying to do with the numbers less objective because he's chasing bunny rabbits into the thicket.
Vegna,
Good to know you see where I'm coming from. I don't mind speculating about what is driving changes to poll numbers since there really isn't a way to "know", but this seemed to be a bit beyond that, IMO. If this thing blows up in the next day or two, then it would make sense to comment on it. Before that, it's just another internet rumor and you can find 100 of those a day on either candidate.
Madre, well said. With posts that good, you need not be a Lurker. But when you spoke, you spoke well.
McCain was answering the questions before they were asked, what more proof do you need?
WARREN TO OBAMA: 80 PERCENT OF AMERICANS RECENT POLL SAID THEY BELIEVE IN MERIT PAY FOR TEACHERS. I’M NOT ASKING DO YOU THINK ALL TEACHERS SHOULD GET A RAISE. DO YOU THINK BETTER TEACHERS SHOULD BE PAID BETTER? THEY SHOULD BE MAKING MORE THAN POOR TEACHERS?
WARREN TO MCCAIN: ABOUT 80 PERCENT OF AMERICA SAYS THEY SUPPORT MERIT PAY FOR THE BEST TEACHERS. NOW, I DON’T WANT TO HEAR YOUR STUMP SPEECH ON EDUCATION--
MCCAIN: YES. YES. AND FIND BAD TEACHERS ANOTHER LINE OF WORK.
Here McCain was answering three questions when Warren hadn't even finished the first question.
What made that exchange even stranger was that McCain then started talking about vouchers, when the question was about merit pay. Did he misremember the question Obama was asked (and thus was only halfway paying attention to what Warren had just said)? Or was he just not paying that much attention, period?
Mark = Douche of the Day
Madre, ditto what Mark said. Thanks for speaking up.
MULEHEAD,
please behave or be gone...
I will need more evidence on this before I lean one way or another - at present it is maybe a bit more credible than the claims that Bush wore a wire.
Why am I skeptical?
1. The payoff really doesn't justify the risk
-Being caught cheating at the debate would have considerable fallout, while the benefits of knowing the first half of the questions in a debate few people watched just doesn't seem to add up.
2. McCain's answers in the interview were largely the same responses to those questions he gives every day in his frequent town halls. The stuff that got the most airtime was his story about his Christian Vietnamese prison guard, which I have heard dozens of times.
3. McCain's performance was relatively consistent. Nobody is suggesting McCain listened in on the second half of Obama's interview. Yet McCain did not do markedly worse during the second half of the faith forum than in the first half.
4. McCain is 72, not especially bright, and doesn't know how to work a blackberry. Just how much can he take in with 30 minutes anyhow?
hillaryclinton4barackobama said:
"In your haste to find something to confront the senator with you FAILED to grasp that he was talking about "someone higher than him", someone some refer to as GOD. He , Mr. Obama, was NOT at the level to state unequivocally that life begins at conception because HE IS NOT GOD ..."
The fact that Obama evaded the question is highly suspect (and highly INTELECTUALly inconsistent) because Obama as a policymaker has made many pronouncements about abortion policy which surely reflect when life begins.
If Obama actually does believe life begins anywhere near conception, then his support for Roe Vs. Wade is simply abhorrent (from his personal moral standpoint - I, on the other hand am quite consistent... pro-death penalty, pro-abortion, and pro-war).
Indeed, even if he only believes the potential for life begins at conception (Hillary Clinton's position), it sounds like a big risk.
Like many of his acolytes, you have mistaken Obama saying nothing eloquently, for him being "intellectual". To make policy on abortion, as Obama has, without any conception of life is shrewdly political, not "intellectual".
Sedi,
I would hardly think Nate Silver would go out on a limb for the Obama campaign - at the considerable risk of damaging his credibility (not just here, but on Baseball Prospectus too).
Anyhow, if I were to develop any Nate Silver conspiracy theory (I am suggesting this only in fun) it would be that his "intrade VP" posts are aimed at talking up candidates he has bought shares in.
Madre said: "poisonous personal rhetoric of the right"
I've said this before but I'll go easy on you since you are a "lurker" and may not know my policy.
I don't represent the right. I'm anti-partisan, post-partisan, etc.
You can't draw a line in the sand or pin me in a corner. It's not right or left, red or blue, Rep or Dem for me.
To be accurate and fair, please say I'm using poisonous personal rhetoric of the anti-left.
I'm only dishing out the same vitriol I've seen from the far left for far too long the last several years.
MULE,
you criticize Nate for dabbling in commentary as if it will taint his analytical research.
That is a bogus canard. His predictive model is there for all to see & he does not generate the data [like Rasmussen & Gallup & others do].
So really he has little ability to cook the books, and no incentive to do so either.
But Nate does actually have an incentive during this period to try to stay ON TOP of the campaign narratives that might explain past & future movements & trends.
This topic is a prime example really.
In the past, Nate & Sean have mostly performed post-mortem commentary as analysis blogs such as to try to explain 'bounces' and other statistical phenomena that may [or may not] have impacted the model.
cellphones, LV vs RV, over-sampling, registration, Sean - GOTV, party ID, youth vote, weighting, etc.
Get the pic ? This is just another possible campaign meme, but perhaps Nate & Sean do have an agenda to get out in front of this story BEFORE rather than comment only AFTER...
As a McCain supporter I welcome these statements attacking the veracity of John McCain by various elements of the media.
The people know who they can trust.
TJB,
who do YOU trust ?
why ???
I am one of 'the people', and it sure ain't McCain !
His first wife trusted him though, and look what that got her !
"The fact that Obama evaded the question is highly suspect (and highly INTELECTUALly inconsistent) because Obama as a policymaker has made many pronouncements about abortion policy which surely reflect when life begins."
And does the Pope have the same problem since He has answered in a similar manner?
If we just stick to facts we can come to some reasonable conclusions, even for out irrational conservative friends.
1. McCain had a good night. He was on his game.
2. Obama spoke for the first hour,
3. Speaking first was decided by a coin flip that must have taken place earlier that day or days before because ...
4. McCain was not in the building when the event started.
5. McCain left his hotel late, and arrived at Warren's church 30 minutes late.
6. Warren claimed McCain was in the "cone of silence" before McCain arrived, and again reaffirmed it again when McCain took the stage
7. The obama camp wasn't happy and suggested McCain may have knew the questions.
8. Andria Mitchell repeats this on MTP
9. The McCain camp releases a letter to NBC stating Mitchel has injected partisan politics by using Obama talking points, but the McCain camp never denied McCain having opportunity to hear the first half hour
10. Warren goes on CNN and states he did not know McCain had not arrived when he was scheduled to, and that once Warren learned of this he asked McCain about it to which McCain answered I did not hear or see the broadcast.
11. (Add on) McCain appeared on a couple of occasions to answer questions that had not yet been asked in full.
Questions that need to be answered:
1. When did McCain know he was going second
2. Why was McCain late
3. Did McCain have opportunity if he chose to see, or hear, or get info on the questions before arriving or while in the "cone"
4. Why didn't Rick Warren know McCain had not arrived.
5. When did Warren learn McCain had arrived
6. McCain needs to explain why he answered questions that had been asked to Obama but not yet to McCain.
As we can see, the facts are not good for McCain. It would not take a Liberal egghead to come up with a conspiracy theory from those facts. Lets see if the media follows up.
HOSE,
reads like you are arguing with yourself [no I am not, yes, you are...]
or is it a concern post...
I trust McCain with the security of this nation.
Obama's political career was started in the living room of a couple, Ayers & Dohrn, who were admitted ringleaders of a group that bombed the Pentagon and NYC police headquarters.
Obama cannot be trusted.
MATT,
that post is just too organized at this time of night !
you must have had the questions supplied to you in advance so you could prepare that outline to post !!!
OK that makes it official...
TJB has shown he is a troll.
DNFTT
DCM,
I figured all of the points I made suggest that it is unlikely that McCain cheated. That doesn't mean actual evidence wouldn't sway me (though I'm an evil robot, so I will turn any anger into fuel to help me google "Obama + antichrist" into the wee hours of the night, as dreams of the fictional Michelle Obama tape in my head harangue my white ass to sleep).
I will need more evidence on this before I lean one way or another
As will I. If he did it, it's embarassing and a likely black eye, but thus far all we have seen is speculation.
As far as Nate posting the story...it's his site, he can do what he wants, however I do agree with Mule that people seem to be accepting this as gospel before the facts are known....and I might remind everyone how frequently posters here demand facts.
Really TJB? You buy the Sean Hannity talking points? Wouldn't that be like me buying the Keith Olbermann talking points?
Obama had a fund raiser at the house of a man who was a domestic terrorist 30 years earlier (However unrepentant) when Obama was 8. Obama also served on a board with this individual.
Is that your evidence that Obama cannot be trusted? I believe your argument is weak. It is the argument of a person willing to believe anything they hear to fuel the suspicions of a man you do not want to like.
Feel free to convince me otherwise.
hosertohoosier,
thank you for sharing your innermost feelings.
well, not sure if it is better that you are not a troll but merely another deeply delusional soul...
Ambien might help you get some apparently much needed sleep...
MATT,
I would venture that it is safe to assume that TJB & McCain & the GOPers have no intention to take:
"The High Road. The Surest Way to Defeat" as someone once said - but I cannot recall who ?
Obama had a fund raiser at the house of a man who was a domestic terrorist 30 years earlier (However unrepentant) when Obama was 8. Obama also served on a board with this individual. Is that your evidence that Obama cannot be trusted? I believe your argument is weak.
I'll chime in on this...IMO it's worth looking into. Ayers was a domestic terrorist as you conceed however regardless of Obama's age when he was an active terrorist he admits he maintains his opinions and that's why it's worth a look.
Now I am clearly not an Obama supporter but while I do hold the opinion that it's worth investigating it does not mean that Obama holds the same opinions as Ayers. However, I think that anyone who dismisses it without examination is playing a dangerous game. JMHO
I actually realize that we got played on this issue.
Nate brings up the question of what McCain had to gain...
To me, it is obvious.
Very few people (other than total political junkies) watched the actual event. However, the general consensus was that McCain performed well and won the event.
Then the whole thing with the "cone of silence" came out. I actually don't think that he had the questions. But the whole thing gave them a chance to repeat 3 themes. a) He won the debate. This was the biggest. Its hard to report "he might have cheated" without reporting "he won". It got that repeated more than it would have. b) The media sucks. Why not put NBC on edge? Complain about them. Perhaps they won't run a neg story next time. c) The Dems are whining sore losers. They thought that it would get played that Obama couldn't take a loss without being seen whining about the other side cheating.
The whole thing plays out to McCain's favor.
At least thats my theory.
SCOTT,
Ok, then let's have McCain's bogus super-secret christian POW jailer 'cross in the dirt' invetigate your concern claims & draw a picture for all of us on how your conspiracy works...
Oh and for what its worth, Andrea Mitchell kind of ripped Rick Davis a new one a couple of weeks ago. There might be lingering resentment.
Davis went on to talk about how Obama was such a "celebrity" and all of Mitchell's questions were about whether or not they were lowering the level of political discourse with trash. She never bought into the premise at all.
You mean to tell me that an evangelical Christian preacher would conspire with a Republican to rig a television appearance to tilt it toward the Republican, and then turn around and mislead everyone about it?
No, this would never happen. It would be shocking, I tell you. Simply shocking.
Ok, then let's have McCain's bogus super-secret christian POW jailer 'cross in the dirt' invetigate your concern claims & draw a picture for all of us on how your conspiracy works...
I agree...investigate it. Investigate whether or not McCain did hear Obama speak. Absolutely. All I am saying is that people shouldn't simply accept things as gospel without due dilligence.
Oh and BTW....I'm not the one who subscribes to the grand conspiracy theories, remember?
clarkejeffrey
your scenario could be correct.
Obama definitely got played on the entire thing especially since pastor Rick kept reminding only Obama not to give his political stump answers, etc.
Warren allowed & even almost encouraged McCain to spew 30 seconf sound bites & standard stump speech outakes that were not even on point [like taxes * his POW experiences which McCain claims he is always reluctant to even mention, let alone brag on it !]
But if your reasoning is correct, then Obama really got punked TWICE.
I found the whole event distasteful & unfulfilling because it was in front of an audience that was not supposed to take part [but did]. Why not just an interview format one-on-one with a camera on a sofa - not inside a church ?
Anyway, the strangest component is that Andrea Mitchell is by no means an Obama sympathizer - if fact she is usually quite snarky regarding Obama, especially during the trip overseas I thought.
So how does she end up in the middle of this, when actually the way she presented the Obama team complaints were made rather derisively since she had said that McCain was sharp & topped Obama [or something along those lines].
Everything got flipped around....
but it felt like a rigged event to me & was really just a marketing ploy for Warren...
DCM in FL said ...
"The High Road. The Surest Way to Defeat" as someone once said - but I cannot recall who ?
if this is a reference to an earlier post i may have made let me explain. i deplore low road politics. Despise them, and think the McCain campaign should be harassed constantly for using these tactics.
However, once the republicans open this door and go this route, i firmly believe the opposition(Obama in this case) MUST not just defend themselves, but attack back with twice the aggressiveness. we have seen the result of not attacking, we have eight years of Bush to remind us.
I have reached a point that winning must be the sole goal after the last 8years, all other priorities (Including deeply held beliefs about positive campaigning) must be secondary. It is sad that this must occur, but the republicans have forced this situation with their smear tactics.
What disappoints me is that the Obama campaign has already put out the word that it won't discuss any of it. Didn't these people learn from what happened to Kerry?
Matt, you really are naive, and have missed the clandestine linkages in the cabal that secretly runs Obama's campaign.
In 1932 a group of masons, elders of Zion, klansmen and members of the Angola, Indiana elk lodge met to discuss a fiendish plot to rig elections. Finding considerable ease in putting Hitler in power, they decided to turn to the United States.
It is oft-noted by presidential election watchers that if the Washington Redskins win their final home game, the incumbent keeps hold of the White House. This has held true since 1936 (not in 2004, but I'll get to that).
Most people chalk this up to a coincidence, but the logical link is clear. All Americans are born and raised to have an innate fear of Native Americans - something a Redskin victory brings to the fore. Research has shown evidence of a rally-around-the-flag effect when the nation is under attack, strengthening the incumbent. The Redskins are also one of the few Football teams with their own marching band too, which adds to the fear.
Anyhow, in 2004 it stopped working - the Packers won, but Kerry lost. Now the secret cabal that runs the country needs a new way to control elections, because the old way just isn't working. That is where Obama comes in.
You see, the only thing other than Native Americans feared by all Americans are Islamic terrorists. As a Muslim terrorist trained in a madrassah, Obama could use his connections to ensure regular attacks on the US at key intervals, so that the cabal that runs the US can maintain power.
What connections am I talking about? Well Bill Ayers, obviously, was a terrorist, and, being a terrorist, I presume he is Muslim. Tony Rezko is from Syria and probably Muslim and therefore, a terrorist. Reverend Wright is actually the only non-terrorist of the bunch - he was thrown in as a red herring.
But why do they want Obama in so badly? Studies have shown that people are much more likely to die the day before tax changes come in, raising the inheritance tax. The cabal has invested heavily in shovel futures, and wants Obama to raise the death tax - increasing the death rate on a pre-appointed day, and yielding the cabal a hefty profit. That is a fate America simply cannot stomach.
So, you see, Obama's connections do matter. We have an incredible chance to free ourselves from the corn-stained talons of the Angola, Indiana elk lodge - the first truly free election we have had since 1932.
MATT,
my post of that quote was giving props to you man.
I linked to your blog & copied your headline [although I did not read your post].
But I liked the topic & agree with you completely !
"The High Road. The Surest Way to Defeat" which I think Nate has also been promoting on here lately.
Get Bill & Hill & go to the mattresses if necessary - but fight back hard.
HosertoHoosier
That was actually funny, i laughed. Did you just make that up just now?
hoser, if that wasn't so tedious it might have stood a chance of being funny.
HOSE,
that is quite a vision you got going there.
try a creative writing blog where you can share your stories...
I actually disagree on Warren. I thought he came across very well. I know a lot of people are saying that he was helping McCain, etc. I don't think he was.
I believe that he thought that McCain was in the "cone of silence" when he said that. I don't see him risking his own career to be a part of a conspiracy theory.
Remember Warren did an enormous favor for Obama by even having the forum. Warren represents a new brand of evangelical leader. Its the evangelical that says "you don't have to be Republican. You don't have to make abortion your only issue". You can think about voting for the Democrat if you think the Dem will do more for the poor, fighting AIDS, climate change, etc. Obviously this new attitude annoys the old religious right leaders. They believe that evangelicals should be 100% Republican and are willing to demonize Democrats in order to do it. By even holding a forum and implying that evangelicals have a decision to make, Warren was making a big move to the left.
I'm sure McCain would have preferred to show up for an endorsement ceremony instead of a forum. Warren didn't give him that.
I don't know what happened here. My best guess is that McCain really was simply late and then it spiralled out of control. Dems called him a cheater and he called Dems whiners. I think that its sort of a wild card how this gets interpreted and finally plays out. I don't think it will be a large vote changer on either side.
We have an incredible chance to free ourselves from the corn-stained talons of the Angola, Indiana elk lodge - the first truly free election we have had since 1932.
LMAO. Classic!!!!
Why is it not more obvious how easy it would've been for McCain and Rick Davis' minions to have heard Obama's portion as it happened?
Personal Sirius satellite radios can be had for around $200, and they look an iPod, not some kind of spy junk. And, or course, they carry CNN's live audio feed 24/7. (I assume XM carries CNN too; both service's subscribers will know soon enough)
What McCain staffer wouldn't have been directed, errr, tempted, to hear how personal Rick Warren was getting with the first batter up? McCain was probably given a heads-up or two about the nature of Warren's questions, and, importantly, Obama's responses. And maybe set at ease before heading on stage, a "It's not gonna be that rough, John" atta-boy back-slap.
It's more likely to have happened this way than not, if you ask me. I'm not convinced it helped McCain in any way, mind you. I thought he came off as a blabbering stump speech poli-robot.
Get Bill & Hill & go to the mattresses if necessary - but fight back hard.
Y'know. I wonder if the Clintons will use their speeches to rip into McCain. I know that Obama's people want them to. Honestly, I've been surprised by them so many times I don't know what to expect.
I will say I think they are loyal Democrats.
McCain might have made a big mistake by playing up the "Listen to Hillary. She's a smart person in the middle" card. It might have just increased the ratings for a speech designed to rip into him.
clarkejeffrey
I am sure it was arranged to help promote Warren's ministry & sell more books.
He wants to become the heir to Billy Graham as minister to the nation & pastor to the entire world. [IMO]
so it was clever marketing & got low eyeballs on the first run, so controversy sells....
Larry King on Monday for Warren...
CNN is rerunning the 'event' almost in a loop...
DCM,
I had forgotten I'd written that, but it hits all my usual themes. Thanks for reading.
It might have just increased the ratings for a speech designed to rip into him.
Depends on which passion of Hillary's will win out. Her Democratic loyalty or her ambition to win it for herself in 2012? She will certainly play the game and make a show of supporting Obama or she can kiss 2012 goodbye anyhow. So if her true agenda is to run again in 2012 I imagine she will support Obama just enough that it doesn't royally piss of the Democrat base but probably not enough to really make a large impact.
Hosertohoosier: Bravo! Encore!
On Warren: Everything I've seen so far adds up on his end...I have no reason to believe he's being dishonest. Maybe he was a little more forceful with asking Obama to keep off the stump speeches, and letting McCain get away with it, but I wouldn't make a fuss over that.
clarkejeffrey
on Hillary & McCain's play for the PUMAs, I agree.
here in FL there are older female PUMAs that will vote McCain or stay home unless Hill is at least VP.
Man she could rip John a new one & how could he now dismiss her after groveling for her supporters all summer ?
Make McCain eat those words - and force John to take Mittens. I believe that McCain despises Romney much much more than the Clinton's dislike Obama.
Being forced to 'choose' Mittens would really stick in McCains cranky craw like a piece of jerky...
Clinto & Obama fought, but Romney was much rougher on McCain & John totally dismissed him as a flip-flopper. Take the flip-flopper, John - please....
Plus the Clinton's HATE to lose or admit defeat, so they could spin the first female VP as the big win in the endgame. IMO
JenJen said...
And, or course, they carry CNN's live audio feed 24/7. (I assume XM carries CNN too; both service's subscribers will know soon enough)
Yes, XM does carry CNN. Actually, that is how I was listening to the last 30 minutes of the forum. And that's my first thought, too, of how someone could listen to it while in a motorcade since I was listening in my motorcade of one.
Remember Warren did an enormous favor for Obama by even having the forum. Warren represents a new brand of evangelical leader. Its the evangelical that says "you don't have to be Republican. You don't have to make abortion your only issue"
Oh, horseshit. Rick Warren is one more Orange Count phony Christian wingnut. He tilted his forum toward McCain and then blatantly lied about it. If you think that guy is some sort of "friend," then you've got political Stockholm Syndrome.
I saw this online & it made me laff...
"Mittens Romney for Precedent"
apparently shirts & other stuff were being marketed at one time...
I kinda miss mittens...
As far as Hillary in 2012,
I got news for them. If Obama loses, the AA community is gonna blame the Clinton's regardless. I've heard Bill can't even go into a black church no more he's not welcome. It wasn't Obama who was pissed at Bill over the jessy Jackson comment, it was the black community. THEY ARE PISSED! So if a guy like WEbb or Warner runs in 4 years, and Obama supports that candidate, Hillary ain't going to have a walk.
For what it's worth I very much enjoy reading these kinds of stories on this site. I come for the statistics as well of course, but it's for the other stories and commentaries that I'm more and more eager to visit this site everyday.
There's a lot of good insights and observations, including on this story, that I would otherwise be missing. Keep up the good work. I'll keep on reading.
If Obama loses, the AA community is gonna blame the Clinton's regardless
Perhaps, but I am not so sure they will actually defect to the GOP either. They may sit it out.
OUCH -
looks like Nate ran the simulation late tonight with the new OH & tracking polls.
Obama down another 4 EV to 283.5, win down to 56.9% [lowest yet as I recall], and popular vote spread down to 1.0%
Still, Obama is in the lead after a week on vacation & the Olympics dominating & poor polling results...
But on the EV distribution graph it is sure looking much more likely to produce the dreaded 269 EV split by that one freakin tall spike !
or another nail-biter either way [268/270 or 272/266] around the highest center peaks... damm !
better get it kickewd into gear by mid-September when these things will really count !
HI to Andrew
welcome & enjoy even if you just lurk. feel free to comment
Tito,
I listen to CNN on Sirius in my car almost daily during my commute, so, like you, it's the first and most obvious thing that came to mind. Of course, you and I will surely be shrugged off as satellite-radio-listening elitist conspiracy theorists. (And I don't even own one of those fancy personal satellite radios, sniff!)
I'm surprised at all the talk of "broadcast feeds" and "Blackberrys" when really, it's the satellite radio, stupid.
Oh, horseshit. Rick Warren is one more Orange Count phony Christian wingnut. He tilted his forum toward McCain and then blatantly lied about it. If you think that guy is some sort of "friend," then you've got political Stockholm Syndrome.
I disagree.
Obviously, Warren used the event for a little bit of self-promotion. He isn't alone. Practically, everybody in this business has an ego and self promotes.
I do think Warren is serious about elevating the level of discourse. Frankly, its gotten out of hand in the last few years. Both parties are in such a rush to demonize the other that they pass opportunities to work together. Although I'm a Democrat, I don't think everybody on the right is an evil person. I do respect their opinions.
Ultimately, you need to realize that Warren helped us out a lot.
What have the Republicans been trying to say about Obama?
He's an evil radical that might just be a hidden muslim.
The whole overtone of Warren's interaction with Obama was "I might not agree with you on abortion, but you are a moderate and I agree with you on a lot. Plus, I really believe that you believe in Christ and aren't a secret muslim".
Ultimately, that is a message that will help a lot. This event wasn't really about evangelicals.
Newsflash: Anybody that considers abortion to be murder is voting for McCain.
The event was about independents and moderates. I think most moderates actually agree with Obama on the issues, because Obama is actually a moderate himself on most issues. I think that Republicans know that. I think that is why they don't want it to be about the issues. They want it to be about "Obama, secret Radical black power Muslim guy that thinks he is the messiah".
Having a very prominent and respected Christian leader say "I disagree with you on abortion but you are a fine upstanding Christian" really helps.
On the other hand, what did McCain get out of it?
He got to tell the religious right he was against abortion. He got to pander one more time to a group of people that should have already been locked up a long time ago.
Nuanced indeed.
He had not "heard" the questions. That leaves open the possibility that he READ the questions on a Blackberry or that he was given ANSWERS (talking points) by his STAFF who knew what the questions would be.
I would say that what will get lost in this are three important things: (1) His statement about when life should be protected by law, which would require the prosecution of a woman for manslaughter if she had a miscarriage that might be attributed to drinking or smoking; (2) McCain's eagerness to pursue a military solution to every problem, including confronting Russia in Georgia; (3) The collapse of Musharraf's government this morning.
Nate and the Obama campaign are sounding churlish and childish in trying to come up wioth some sort of conspiriacy theory that would explain why McCain did so much better than Obama did at the forum. Y'all can't just accept facts that your Messiah had bad night (comparatively) and leave it at that. This iosgreat for mccain. let's keep the story alive and let the quotes fly. Obama will wind up with the shitty end of the stick again and again.
Dumbos!
Here we go again.
This "controversy" mirrors the absurd claims by Democrats in the 2002 campaign that a Republican television ad was sending a subliminal message by using an outsized text graphic that allegedly focused on the "rats" in "Democrats".
Or perhaps a closer parallel would be the "bump" on the back of Bush's suit in the first debate with Kerry in 2004, through which he was supposedly receiving information on how to answer questions from Karl Rove. [A controversy that no doubt greatly embarrassed the President’s tailor.]
That ostensibly sane and otherwise intelligent individuals would cling to such absurdities is truly sad.
Nate,
This whole controversy here is fun, at least, for what it reveals about hypocrisy. Poster after poster who responds to statistical analyses with political diatribes is now complaining that "commentary on politics doesn't belong on a 'statistics website'???
In the language of my political youth, that is O-V-E-R-A-C-T-I-O-N as well as H-Y-P-O-C-R-I-S-Y.
What makes this a great site is that it presents facts and people evaluate them. Sometimes they have facts themselves to argue about, and sometimes they just make arguments without facts. But when they want to supporess both facts and argument? I call bullsh*t.
Wonderful site.
hosertohoosier... that was one of the greatest things I have ever read. Thank you.
To anyone arguing the content of Nate's post, you simply aren't capable of parsing facts. There is a clear disconnect between the assertions of the McCain camp (that there's no substance to Mitchell's claims) and reality (that Mitchell's claims are not only possibly true, they are undisputed fact and are even admitted by the McCain camp). This is the world we live in where one side is giving you the news, but painting all the shades of black, white. Up is down. Left is right. Whatever we can do to stop people from discussing the reality of the situation.
I'm glad to see that Obama is basically just calling them out for it now. The more that this sort of stuff goes on, the better I'd feel having Hillary and Bill out there just pounding away at McCain every day. However, I'm not convinced it's worth having more Old Washington around if/when Obama wins. For all the talk of how she didn't embrace Penn's ideas of painting him as something other than American, her campaign did center on how middle American she is being from Scranton and speeches with an incredible emphasis (and the news coverage to hammer home) how much she connects with those middle American voters. That said... she can connect with those middle American voters. I'd really rather win than be right about Hillary's campaign integrity.
To the people complaining about the content of Nate's posts... How presumptuous of you to have concern for the credibility of Nate's work. He clearly has no idea what he's doing. If I were him, I would definitely change course and listen to some dipshit on the internet who can't even parse the argument I'm trying to make instead of continuing to follow my incredibly intelligent brain that has led me to be so successful as to have multiple appearances and citations on the national stage. If these are the conclusions you draw based on the information you have available, then your brain is malfunctioning on a level beyond my ability to comprehend.
Oh, yeah, there is a fourth thing they hope no one notices: McCain thinks a person earning a MILLION dollars a year is NOT RICH! Spoken like someone wearing $500 loafers. How elitist can you get?
How will that play in the Ohio Valley? I'd be making that ad yesterday.
Nate,
I have been a loyal reader of this website since you created it. I was linked to 538 way way back from the posting on Dailykos.
This story about 'McCain and the cone of silence' is closer to the realm of Dailykos than the statistical-based 538. Obviously you may do and publish what you wish on your website, however, you do yourself a great disservice when you stray away from the pure statistics that made and makes this site unique, and worth reading.
This is such a non-story, it's killing me. Nate, let it rest. Same goes for the campaign -- Obama is doing well enough without his campaign putting out stupid rumors they can't prove.
clarkejeffrey...
I agree with what you're saying. I think this is great for Obama. If you're basing your vote on Roe v. Wade, we know how you're voting. If you are kind of open minded about all issues, but are still very religious, I can see being comforted by a) Obama's appearance at this function can't be taken as anything but a show of respect to the "church" in general (Jesus or whatever) b) a well-respected man of the cloth's endorsement of the general acceptability of Obama as a candidate (like your idea that the idea that there's a choice to be made is refreshing) and c) his endorsement of Obama's christianity. Of course the dude got himself some press and face-time too. Who wouldn't?
Now... I think I should say that the idea of having two presidential candidates meeting and talking about the policy of our government in a freaking church is really upsetting. The idea that they have to vet their religious beliefs to be acceptable candidates is FAR beyond the separation of church and state. Why is it that some people are willing to throw away major principles of American government just to advance their own interests (yes... imposing your moral fiber onto other people when it's based on a book written two thousand years ago is in nobody's interest but your own and those that believe like you)?
However, I agree with a lot of this man's message (despite completely disagreeing with his religious beliefs... yet half the country can't do that politically) and do not disagree with his stated intentions of providing a forum for civil discourse. Let's just leave mythology (whether your mythology of the existence of God or my mythology of the uncertainty... without facts, it's just a person's faith, intuition, logic, or whatever part of your brain, heart, or soul you use to answer these questions for yourself) out of it.
And I still don't get how evangelicals care who wins the election when they believe explicitly that God controls all political and religious leaders (as it says in the Bible). If everything happens for a reason or to serve God's greater purpose, why bother? I think that people make these decisions, so I care who that person is, but if God's the one behind it all, what's the difference? It's the same faith that you have that God was really behind the writing of the Bible, that He oversaw the choosing of those particular stories in the Bible (there are many "Gospels" not included), and that God has ensured that the message has not been changed over two millenia as it was passed through the hands of people that were on the whole, quite primitive compared to modern people. All of this and you still bother to vote? Sounds to me like you question the integrity of man... then why would you believe someone who tells you that they're "inspired by God" to do anything?
Romans 1:1-7
Everyone must submit himself to the governing authorities, for there is no authority except that which God has established. The authorities that exist have been established by God. Consequently, he who rebels against the authority is rebelling against what God has instituted, and those who do so will bring judgment on themselves. For rulers hold no terror for those who do right, but for those who do wrong. Do you want to be free from fear of the one in authority? Then do what is right and he will commend you. For he is God's servant to do you good. But if you do wrong, be afraid, for he does not bear the sword for nothing. He is God's servant, an agent of wrath to bring punishment on the wrongdoer. Therefore, it is necessary to submit to the authorities, not only because of possible punishment but also because of conscience.
Of course... the people who wrote that originally were those people in power who were to not be questioned. I'm sure it's coincidence that they were inspired by God to write something that was completely in their interest and gives them limitless authority and power, but I'm not the one who believe this stuff, so I'll let you wrestle with how questioning the intentions of a man you can see and touch is reasonable, but since that other man wrote the Bible, the lack of evidence for his intentions is never questioned (or not... just stop trying to make me live with your decision).
I am genuinely curious, though I seem very judgmental and condescending, so if there's any evangelical-minded types out there who believe the Bible explicitly, could you provide me some insight? Do you really believe that every non-Christian in the world is evil and you need to protect our country from us?
I would say "do not feed the trolls, people," but at this point I'm not sure which side the trolls are on.
(probably both)
If whether McCain was in a "Cone of Silence" is the best news for Obama out of the Saddleback broadcast, seems like he must have had a pretty pitiful performance. Haven't seen it yet, but I will catch a glimpse now that everyone cares so much about the "cone of silence."
Mule Rider is funny.
His entire argument seems to be: "so what if McCain cheated a little, he's half the candidate Obama is so he should be allowed to cheat from time to time, lie about it and get away with it. McCain's character and honor don't matter (only Obama's does, and he's despicable for making the accusation in the first place even though it has plenty of merit), if McCain lied about this it makes no difference, he deserves the benefit of the doubt but Obama doesn't because he's so smart. Obama should tie half his brain behind his back for the rest of the campaign, otherwise it's just not fair to the old codger, the playing field isn't level because Obama is SO MUCH smarter than McCain. Oh yeah, and I'm not a partisan, I'm just anti-left."
Does that about cover it?
Thanks for the laugh this morning, Mule Rider. I'm not a partisan either, I'm just anti-idiocy and because everyone on the right (as well as the anti-left) are such idiots, it only looks like I'm being partisan. You can SAY you're not partisan until you're blue in the face but that doesn't make it so. It reminds me of a joke that Abraham Lincoln once told: Q: how many legs does a dog have if you call the tail a leg? A: four, you can call the tail a leg, but that doesn't make it a leg. Just like you call yourself non-partisan but laughably, it doesn't make you non-partisan. Your posts speak for themselves.
This argument drives me nuts. The only reason to keep it alive is because there is a perception that McCain did a lot better than Obama in the "dialogue" or whatever it was. I didn't see the thing, but I did read excerpts on a couple of questions and, based on that limited information, I'd be forced to agree with that perception.
The more we argue that McCain had to have an advantage, the more we reenforce the underlying perception.
Let it go. It was what it was. Leave it for the campaign books. We have an election to win and this isn't helping. Even if you get a pic of McCaine with a water glass to his ear listening through the wall, it's not going to help; "That's just an old family remedy for ear aches. The Senator does it every time he gets one."
Remember the mysterious "bump" in the back of Bush's suit jacket during a televised debate? Nothing came of that and nothing will come of this, except a reminder that people thought McCain did better.
Jim S.
That portion of scripture was written while Christians were being used as Roman candles or being fed to the lions by the authorities.
So your comments are wrong.
I'm sure Mule Rider is not a McCainite. He probably goes into Conservative sites with a different handle and throws shit at the wall until somebody complains about the smell, same as here.
He's just another equal opportunity idiot.
anon@ 826,
You may have pegged me slightly but you reduced the argument to the lowest common denominator. I don't endorse McCain and certainly don't approve of him cheating. But it seems like a highly improbably situation and more likely he just benefitted from having "home field advantage."
My point in saying it was "no big deal" even if he had a little bit of help was to say that with all of the accusations of McCain being a senile old fart, and Obama hailed as the most charismatic and intelligent politician/orator since JFK or William Jennings Bryan, they've got serious concerns if they felt old John "outperformed" them with no more than 30 minutes or an hour of extra lead time. It may not have been right or okay (if he did it), but it flies in the face of Obama being so eloquent and charismatic if he steps forward and cries foul, thus acknowledging he was outplayed by McCain.
To your assessments about my "politics." Well, you're patently wrong and you have no way of labelling me in any way whatsoever. From the dictionary, though...
partisan - n. A fervent, sometimes militant supporter or proponent of a party, cause, faction, person, or idea
I have a 100% clean record (voting or otherwise) as to being completely unafilliated with any "party, cause, faction, etc."
So you can play the typical partisan game of drawing lines in the sand so you can make it a right-left, red-blue, etc. type argument because you can't stand there's someone out there in no man's land who can lay the wood to partisans on both sides but happens to be hammering away on the idiocy of liberals at the moment, but it won't change who I truly am.
So, your ignorant post speaks for itself.
Matthew H,
Thanks. Even in you're somewhat biting remark, at least you acknowledge I'm an "equal opportunity" bastard (or idiot, in your words).
I have hurled plenty of shit the way at right wingers, but since they are so few on here, the frequency pales in comparison to my insults at left-wingers because of their abundance on here.
Nate and the Obama campaign are sounding churlish and childish in trying to come up wioth some sort of conspiriacy theory that would explain why McCain did so much better than Obama did at the forum.
Well other than McCain didn't of course. He sounded pedantic, Jingoistic and delivered soundbites via a Einstein-Rosenberg anomaly. Obama sounded thoughtful, honest and genuine revealing that he will be a president for all the people not just his partisans. The kind of evangelicals that Senator Obama has a chance with will be swayed by his answers and repulsed by McCain's.
I do find the thread amusing though - note how the McCain partisans started out saying it didn't happen and now have evolved to its not important even if it did happen? ;)
No, if a presidential candidate lied and cheated even in a silly event like this it is important, just as their commitment to the nature of the event did. Obama came out on top other than the opportunistic pandering crown that obviously went to McCain.
I am torn. On the one hand posts like these shouldn´t take much space on a statistics page like this one, on the other hand it´s Nate´s blog for f...´. sake - not some kind of official government agency.
It still remains true that there is no other page with such a deep emphasis on statistical/mathematic analysis regarding the coming election. And seriously, noone is forced to read these off-topic posts. And it ´s not like these off-topic posts make the analysis any worse - especially of they are also based on facts or quotes, and not just pure polemics.
Well, apart from that, I´m gonna get me some popcorn - ´cause it´s on!
To also quote from this letter:
2.) In his official correspondence to both campaigns, Pastor Rick Warren provided both candidates with information regarding the topic areas to be covered, which Barack Obama acknowledged during the forum when asked about Pastor Warren's idea of an emergency plan for orphans and Obama said, "I cheated a little bit. I actually looked at this idea ahead of time, and I think it is a great idea;" 3.) John McCain actually requested that he and Barack Obama do the forum together on stage at the same time, making these kinds of after-the-fact complaints moot.
BOTH CANDIDATES KNEW WHAT THE TOPICS WERE AHEAD OF TIME. THIS IS A NON STORY.
The problem I and others are starting to have with this blog is that if Nate is so biased he can't even be bothered to check the basic facts, how can we trust his statistical analysis?
The name of this blog is "Electoral Projections Done Right". The problem is, if you read the political analysis, it more and more seems to be "Electoral Projections Done LEFT".
McCain did better because he's had much more experience, and also because he didn't spend the last week on vacation. Perhaps he was just smart enough to prepare for this event.
Could I have a RSS feed that eliminates Nates postings?
BOTH CANDIDATES KNEW WHAT THE TOPICS WERE AHEAD OF TIME. THIS IS A NON STORY.
Only if it can be shown the information included these questions in such a rigid format that McCain could answer without hearing the question at all.
If you are right and it was part of the submitted material this should be easily confirmable by Warren and either of the participants. Until then its suspicious especially from someone with McCain's ethical history.
TOB said:
Could I have a RSS feed that eliminates Nates postings?
Uh... Why not just take it out of your RSS feed. Nate does about 75% of the postings.
Articles on the statements of the McCain campign this am. They will not say McCaub didn't hear the questions. They are saying he was in the motorcade without a broadcast feed. This 2008 you don't need a broadcast feed. They have not said unequiovically that he didn't hear the questions. They attacked Andrea Mitchell when all they had to say was, he didn't hear the questions unequivocally. Instead they are playing nuance and McCain refrerenced himself he was in the pod, when he knew he wasn't. He should have gave no reference, if he was honest, that he was in the pod if he knew that wasn't the case. This is almost rising to Bill Clinton of not saying you did, but not saying you didn't.
Bob said: "Until then its suspicious especially from someone with McCain's ethical history."
But as "suspicious" as it might be, only you and about 117 other people in the country (Nate included and most of you others who are posters on here or over at DailyKos or TalkLeft) care about it and are trying to make it a story...the other 304,917,243 of us don't give a shit, so it makes it a NON-STORY.
Mule Rider,
The moral revelance of you people is hilarious. Ofcourse hypocricy is the hallmark of the RepububliVon party. Since your the supposed party of values it's okay if you have none. This will be referenced on the 6pm National news, especially since they attacked Mitchell when all they had to say was it wasn't true. They still haven't b/c they no it is true ans they have gone to attack the messengerand not the info. Straight talk express caught in unnecessary lie.
Yes Mule Rider, I know that saying a Republican lied and cheated is not news of any kind - be like reporting that he was breathing.
Still I do relish that you have had to change your stance to adolescent "So he cheated everyone does!" format. I guess the only appropriate reply is:
"If everyone jumped off a cliff I suppose you would too?"
If we were only so blessed.
Mule Rider: You've spent a lot of time here attacking Nate for covering what YOU deem to be a non-event, calling him all kinds of names and just in general acting like an asshole. I don't know what your criteria for an "event" is, but this fits most reasonable people's criteria.
The "story" is not that McCain got a little extra prep and that Obama didn't. The "story" is that McCain didn't follow the rules allowing him the opportunity to cheat but expects everyone to cut him some slack because he was a POW however many decades ago or because he's old and senile (as you suggest) or for whatever reason. But the simple fact remains that McCain had the OPPORTUNITY to cheat. Doesn't mean he did, but it doesn't mean he didn't and so it is a fair question to ask if he did. He says "no", yet there is a lot of circumstantial evidence - including communications from his own campaign - that indicates he may indeed be lying.
YOU may accept McCain's word, as is your prerogative, but a smarter person (like Nate) would look at his record of being forthright and honest to determine if he really deserves the benefit of the doubt, and the only conclusion if you look at that record objectively is that he hasn't always been forthright and honest. He's been caught telling lies before, unless of course you actually believe that it is safe for you to walk around Baghdad without a military escort or that Gen. Petraeus drives around Iraq in an unarmoured Humvee.
A candidate potentially lying about something outright - whatever it may be - IS an "event" in politics. Or have you been asleep through the past, oh I don't know, every election that's ever taken place? Your attacking Nate for speaking to this is far more telling about your own partisanship than it is about Nate's.
As to you not being a partisan, here it is in your own words, and I qoute: "although I admit I'm usually far more inclined to attack left-wing nuts because I lean more conservative." Now go ahead and parse why that doesn't really make you a partisan and see if anyone actually believes you.
OTF,
Not my party...my throat gets hoarse repeating it, but whatever. I won't be holding my breath it makes any waves in the national news. If a couple of days go by and we hear nothing, will you guys accept it was a "non-story" and move on?
Bob,
I never said anything like what you imply. There is still far from being incontrovertible truth to him having cheated. So far, the only people who believe it as gospel are the 117 of you in here. As long as it's confined to 0.00001% of the population, the message "McCain lied and cheated at Saddleback" is going to have a hard time passing definitively into the mainstream. Sorry, that's just the way it is.
It's all innuendo coming from a couple of sour Obama staffers. Yes, it appears McCain was not 100% in accordance with what the prescribed platform would be, but there have been numerous assertions that debunk this story as having any backbone....not the least of which are...
1) They were both given some idea of the topics
2) McCain had "home field" advantage
3) McCain offered to do the forum together with Obama
4) There's far from being any actual evidence that McCain was clued in to the actual questions as no one has given us the specific timeline (i.e. when in the motorcade, the greenroom, etc.)
So with all of that in mind, this story won't go far because there's nothing to it.
And I never said it was okay because "everybody does it." That's absurd.
anon,
You can have personal beliefs and be as far removed from staking a political claim in any realm and rabidly defending those stakes against any dissidence - which is the bare bones behind partisanship.
You can be pro-life or pro-choice, pro-Social Security or pro-privatization, etc. but believing a certain way in no way, shape or for makes you partisan.
Partisanship means drawing lines in the sand and using those wedge issues as a forum for declaring right or wrong. I just call people out on their own partisanship, but you won't see me on here parroting stump speeches about my beliefs and how they're right and everyone else is idiots for not believing them. I call people idiots for taking and running with bull shit that is irrelevant to the public discourse of politics.
1) They were both given some idea of the topics
Which doesn't explain answering multiple part questions before they are even asked.
2) McCain had "home field" advantage
Which has nothing to do with the 'cheating' issue.
3) McCain offered to do the forum together with Obama
Which has nothing to do with the cheating issue.
4) There's far from being any actual evidence that McCain was clued in to the actual questions as no one has given us the specific timeline (i.e. when in the motorcade, the greenroom, etc.)
But lots of smoke.
To the reasonable mind answering a series of questions before they are asked needs a causation:
Standard series of questions asked in this format regularly,
That series of questions comes from some media that both speakers had access too and could expect to be used in the forum,
McCain was briefed by people or himself knew what questions were going to be asked, either through getting them ahead of time or from people privy to the ones asked of Senator Obama.
Easy to demonstrate the 2 innocent possibilities - that neither was even mentioned in the NBC letter is damning by omission.
Again its not a big issue. I think McCain did poorly - pandering. jingoism. soundbites. off topic. Wouldn't vote for any candidate if that's the best they could do. And I think Obama did exactly what he intended to do - be honest sincere and open so that those who were concerned about his faith and commitment to higher ideals would be re-assured.
Again, if nothing other than not being in 'the cone of silence' is all that happened who cares? But if he cheated at a 'values forum' what kind of ethics can the man even have?
MAN CHEATS AT VALUES FORUM most definitely is a story worth telling...
McCain won the Saddleback debates decisively. The NYT/NBC conduits of the Obama campaign's damage control re cone of silience is admission of McCains victory and is totally insider noise. The buzz will be that McCain took a major step to nailing down the Evangelical vote and end any nonsense about Obama getting any significant move off of Kerry or Gore's numbers with this block. The only thing that puts Evangelicals back in play is a pro-choice VP selection.
The buzz from the Saddleback debates will spread offline to the main-stream-media at Sunday services and Wednesday night small groups. It was a huge victory for McCain ... don't kid yourselves with talking your man into thinking otherwise.
PS - Hannity and the RW talk crew are beating the snot out of Obama on abortion and his votes in the Illinois senate. This is really damaging material. This and Saddleback are the end for Obama with the evangelics. I also think this puts a slow fade under Obama in Virginia and North Carolina.
Regarding Kaine, his selection is going to be problematic. He will either have to denouce Obama's radical pro-abortion (as opposed to pro-choice) positions or endorse them and face excommunication ala Gov Sebelius (anyone who thinks a VP coice of an excommunicated Catholic is going to bring home the Catholic vote is out to lunch).
If there's ever a night to watch Jon Stewart, this is it. The Daily Show's precise mastery of video segments is going to be on full display in covering this controversy. What will be the title of the Daily Show segment? Saddlebackgate? Warrengate? Blackberrygate?
Jim S. You miss the nuance of audience. First of all this is Paul writing to the ROmans. He is not a man in authority. In fact he was put to death for disobedience to the Roman Emperor.
Second you are way oversimplifying the Romans passage as balanced against other passages on government.
Does God work through history? Yes. But your summary totally oversimplifies the relationship God has with man.
Is it true that when a lawful government proposes morally correct and or moraaly neutral (i.e. speed limits, etc.) rules, that obedience to the government is mandated yes.
And does God work through these authorities to accomplish his broad overall purpose? Yes.
But does man have free will, the ability to make one's own decisions outside of God's will, or even contrary and absolutely opposed to God's will? Yes.
God doesn't rule as some kind of authoritarian producer of robots. He wants a personal worship relationship with those who willingly believe in him and follow him.
You see the same guy that wrote the passage in Romans you quote wrote
Ephesians 6:12, "For our struggle is not against flesh and blood, but against the rulers, against the authorities, against the powers of this dark world and against the spiritual forces of evil in the heavenly realms."
Or take Jesus for instance, he was crucified for civil disobedience to the Roman government. There have been a lot of Martyrs who died at the hands of government throughout history. The latest in Pakistan just two months ago.
Where in good conscience you can obey authorities you must.
Where you can battle those authorities to improve the government to be more oriented to God's will you must.
The Bible commands political activity. Its exactly what Jesus was about, changing the world, opposing authorities, preaching love for all.
Paul often paints with a broad stroke and in contradictory language.
Oh Yeah Romans 1:1-7 says, " 1Paul, a servant of Christ Jesus, called to be an apostle and set apart for the gospel of God— 2the gospel he promised beforehand through his prophets in the Holy Scriptures 3regarding his Son, who as to his human nature was a descendant of David, 4and who through the Spirit[a] of holiness was declared with power to be the Son of God[b] by his resurrection from the dead: Jesus Christ our Lord. 5Through him and for his name's sake, we received grace and apostleship to call people from among all the Gentiles to the obedience that comes from faith. 6And you also are among those who are called to belong to Jesus Christ.
7To all in Rome who are loved by God and called to be saints:
Grace and peace to you from God our Father and from the Lord Jesus Christ.
I assumed you meant Romans 13:1-7.
You need a deeper understanding of the Bible and how it interrelates to get this Jim S. Instead of trying to understand you dismiss it as idiocy. I feel sorry for you, that you will not intellectually wrestle with the hard truths about the deity (or lack thereof).
My assessment: "2) McCain had "home field" advantage"
"Which has nothing to do with the 'cheating' issue."
No, not technically; however, if you use the fact he was so sharp and quick in giving answers, almost even in a prescient manner, as evidence he had to have been coached or prepped beforehand, then I think the only logical rebuttal to that claim (which is unsubstantiated) is that he was in a comfortable forum where the Q & A's were tailored for someone championing socially conservative positions. Is that not logical?
Glenn-in-Colorado,
Nobody in their right mind thought Obama was going to get any significnat more of these people than Kery did. As soon as you are pro-choice you have lost 75% of them. That was a media creation that Obama would get more of them, everybody needs a story to run. The only question is how many of the religious right voters turnout and it won't be as high as 2004 but McCain will win nearly the same percentage. Obama's goal was hardly to win these self righteous but actaul the biggest bigots trying to impose their theocratic views in to government despite a seperation of church and state. Obama'ssimple goal was to show he was not afraid to talk about religion like Kerry or Gore. The RepubliCons will try to gin up these people and Obama just wanted to tamp that down. Obama was not depending on the religious wingnuts to win any state.
No, not technically; however, if you use the fact he was so sharp and quick in giving answers, almost even in a prescient manner, as evidence he had to have been coached or prepped beforehand, then I think the only logical rebuttal to that claim (which is unsubstantiated) is that he was in a comfortable forum where the Q & A's were tailored for someone championing socially conservative positions. Is that not logical?
No its not when he answered entire series of questions before they were asked. While having an ready answer to a question about the familiar topic would be understandable, having ready a series of declarative answers to a set of questions that are just related to familiar topic and not yet stated is not.
Again, the innocent explanations should be simple to give and demonstrate and any honest person would do so quickly, but then that's not the case is it?
Bob: You say "if a presidential candidate lied and cheated even in a silly event like this it is important." You're absolutely right.
Mule Rider and other right-wing partisans are attacking the story itself, with the following "logic": McCain didn't cheat, and if he did, he didn't lie about it, but if he did lie about it, it's not important. If McCain did get some advantage from cheating and subsequently lying about it, then he deserves that advantage because Obama is a skilled orator.
This argument is coming from some of the same partisans that think Obama has a forged birth certificate or that think Obama is lying when he says he's a Christian. So you see, IOKIYAR (It's OK If You're A Republican), to right-wing partisans (and to many in the traditional media), lying is only a big deal if a Democrat does it.
I can practically guarantee you that if the shoe were on the other foot and Obama was suspected to have cheated and may have lied about it, the very people that are trying to minimize the importance of this "event" would be crowing from the rooftops about Obama's lack of integrity.
I'd bet the farm on it.
As usual the McCain defenders are missing the point.
The point is not whether he cheated or not, the point is that there is now a perception that might have which will now have some play in the press.
The letter to NBC is very odd. They pretty much guaranteed that this will be discussed on all the Cable networks today.
Last night the Republitrolls here were all sure that this was a non-story that wouldn't get any play. Today they have a different certitude about the issue.
This apparent controversy will be covered, so the questions are: How much, how long and is there any traction?
Warren's interview on Larry King may make this go away or add gasoline to the fire. I wonder if Warren will feel any pressure to get his own reputation completely out of this and throw the McCain camp under the bus.
Let's face it. Of course Obama supporters will harp on this story and Republicans will try to dismiss it. If the roles were reversed the arguments would be too.
The key issue as I mentioned last night is how and how much, if any, the MSM covers it. The McCain letter to NBC and Warren's Larry King appearance now pretty much guarantees that it will get coverage.
Perception is reality, especially in the media echo chamber.
According to the transcript, Warren said: "Now, what I decided is to allow for proper comparison, I’m going to ask identical questions to each of these candidates. So you can compare apples to apples. Now, Senator Obama is going to go first. We flipped a coin, and we have safely placed Senator McCain in a cone of silence."
But that wasn't true: McCain wasn't in the building when they started.
A stunt like that by Obama would have the McCainiacs howling "cheater!".
Then, consider the education questions:
WARREN: OK. Let’s go to education. America right now ranks 19th in high school graduations. We’re first in incarcerations.
OBAMA: Not good.
WARREN: Not good. 80 percent of Americans recently polled said they believe in merit pay. Now, for teachers, do you - I’m not asking do you think all teachers should get a raise. Do you think better teachers should be paid better? They should be paid more than poor teachers?
OBAMA: I think that we should - and I’ve said this publicly, that we should set up a system of performance pay for teachers, negotiated with teachers, worked with the teachers to figure out the assessments, so that they feel like they’re being judged fairly, it’s not at the whim of the principal. That it’s not simply based on a single high stakes standardized test but the basic notion that teaching is a profession, that teachers are underpaid, so we need to pay them all more, but - and create a higher baseline, but then we should also reward excellence.
WARREN: Reward excellence.
OBAMA: I think that is a concept that all of us should embrace. [ applause ]
Now, supposedly, Warren was going to ask the same questions to both.
However, consider the exchange on education with McCain:
WARREN: Let’s talk about education. America ranks 19th in high school graduations, but we’re first in incarcerations. Everybody says they want more accountability in schools.
MCCAIN: Um-hum.
WARREN: About 80 percent of America says they support merit pay for the best teachers. Now, I don’t want to hear your stump speech on education.
MCCAIN: Yes, yes, and find bad teachers another line of work. (APPLAUSE).
WARREN: You know, we’re going to end this, you’re answering so quickly. You want to play a game of poker?
Warren was surprised - had hadn't even asked the education questions and here McCain was answering them!
McCain clearly answered the two "expected" questions and then launched into his stump speech, something Warren asked Obama to avoid.
These are the facts, folks. McCain did well, and part of the reason he did was that he cheated.
I just got here... is the Mule behaving himself?
Because I'll be happy to take him out back and beat on him a bit if necessary.
Just say the word, and I'm on it ;-)
Politics is such a strange game, isn't it?
We had this Saddleback thing and nobody watched but us junkies, because they were all watching Phelps swim. But a fragile little impression began to take root in the ether that McCain did surprisingly well.
Today I did a quick gallop around the bloggy news sites, and that impression has already been supplanted by a much louder meme that "McCain cheated!"
Policits is the only game where your victories turn almost instantly into defeats, and your biggest strengths become your most dangerous weaknesses.
(There's something really deep and existential in that truth, but I'd need a few drinks in order to pursue it, and it's too early in the day :-)
Filistro, I agree and was saying the same thing, just not as eloquently... ;-)
Anyway, we are all wrong when we say only political junkies were watching this. Although I do not have any data, I am willing to bet that a large number of Christians outside of the Saddleback church tuned in. It was given wall to wall cable news coverage.
Warren is extremely popular (25 million books sold) so I believe this event was high on the must see TV scale for many Christians.
That there is now some controversy swirling around it makes me as an Obama supporter chortle with glee.
OTF states, "Obama's goal was hardly to win these self righteous but actaul the biggest bigots trying to impose their theocratic views in to government despite a seperation of church and state. "
OTF, this anti-Christian bigotry and borderline totalitarianism from Obama people is the type of rhetoric which will drive the Right to the polls.
Christianity is not a thought crime ... yet.
Nor is the expression through democratic means of opinions which derive from religious belief any less legitimate than your opinions derived from your Marxist textbooks, drug induced musings or MTV.
The dangeous people out there isn't Rick Warren it is you.
RealDCC,
What you point out is amazing that McCain got away with these answers and people think he did great.
His solution to education. I'll "get them another line of work." Obama gave a reasoned answer on the other hand. McCain neglects the fact, if you read his eductaion plan or lack thereof that certification standards are horrible b/c people don't want to be teachers for many reasons, one is pay. The best and the brightest don't go into primary education. A graduating engineer with a 4yr degree makes average starting salary of $57,000, a starting teacher low $30'sin a good paying area most start under 30K. You think merit pay might be more helpful to attract and keep good teachers then getting rid of the decresing number of people that want to teach. Ofcourse the republicon plan is vouchers to go to private schools. Ofcourse there aren't enough of them and btw most pay a heck of lot better and have much higher qualifications to be on staff. My alma mater you had to have atleast a Masters to be on staff. We have teachers in public schools that don't even have degrees in their discipline that they teach. I know this b/c I know school administrators. They are hunting to find people to fill teaching positions.
Glenn-in-CO
You're wrong.
What's "dangerous" is people who attempt to impose their religious views on others through legislation.
And what's really frightening is that you seem unable to distinguish between political and religious views.
Rxxx... I went back and read your post, which seems pretty eloquent to me :-)
We clearly have our tinfoil hats tuned to the same wavelength. And maybe... just maybe... today's 3 point Obamabump in the Gallup tracker shows we're not alone.
(Chortling with glee also..)
Filistro said, "We clearly have our tinfoil hats tuned to the same wavelength. And maybe... just maybe... today's 3 point Obamabump in the Gallup tracker shows we're not alone."
Bah... Wake me for the conventions.
Glenn-in-Colorado,
You must be one of them. Anti-Christain hardly, went to Catholic school all my life. But, I went to schools that seperated theology from science. Theology is taught in theology class and science is taught in science class. The religious right want their theology of intelligent design or creationism taught as science, along with evolution. That's theology not science. They want public funding for programs, but don't want to be bound by anti-discrimination against gays or other groups that aren't up their moral fiber in their opinion. They want to place prayer in school. There is a clear and definite seperation of church and state and they want to blur it to impose their views. They make up false terms for medical procedures that have no scientific validity.They seek a movement toward theocracy by slowly imposing their religious views as law.
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