It's Official: Obama Picks Biden
UPDATE: Text message received at 2:46 AM Central Time:
"Barack has chosen Senator Joe Biden to be our VP nominee. Watch the first Obama-Biden rally live at 3pm ET on www.BarackObama.com. Spread the word!"____
So much for a head-fake. The writing had been on the wall for a couple of days now.
It's a good choice. The media will love Joe Biden. He passes the ready-on-day-one-test. Older voters like him, which means that Pennsylvania probably isn't a swing state anymore, but that Florida might be.
(official Senate photo)
Was he the best choice? I guess we'll never know. From among the five or so candidates who seemed plausible in the endgame, I think Hillary gives you the best chance of occupying the White House in 2009. But maybe she doesn't give you the best chance of governing effectively, maintaining a majority in the Congress in 2011, or getting re-elected in 2013. Maybe the Obama campaign had some oppo on her, and that's why she (allegedly) wasn't vetted. But I would hope that Chicago at least took her seriously.
Evan Bayh? I still think he got a raw deal from the left. But he wasn't going to generate much enthusiasm from the base, wasn't going to generate much enthusiasm from the press, and from what I'd heard, is not all that well liked in Washington circles. One wonders whether Steve Clemons' reporting is correct, that Bayh was at one point the leading choice, and that the Obama campaign had second thoughts.
Tim Kaine? Never quite understood what made him Veep material, but he'll be an effective surrogate for Obama and certainly raised his national profile. The fact that the Obama campaign may have made a late push to get Mark Warner into the game was a tip-off that he wasn't likely to be picked.
Kathleen Sebelius? I found her a persuasive choice personally. I have no idea how she'd have gone over to the other 304 million Americans. She would have required a careful and deliberate roll-out process, and with the choice apparently having been made fairly late in the day, that had probably become impossible.
Was Brain Schweitzer considered seriously? Was Wesley Clark? Bill Richardson? Were they interested in the position? Were they vetted and disqualified? We have no way to know, so we'll just have to take a pass.
At the end of the day, Joe Biden is that one choice that is in fact fairly safe but nevertheless feels fairly bold. I'd expect Democrats to wake up tomorrow morning feeling pretty good about him.
Note: Edited for clarity.
256 comments
NYTimes is confirming this also:
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/08/23/obama-chooses-biden-as-running-mate/
I wanted Sebelius. She'd have been perfect. But Biden is a good guy. Still, imagine an Obama/Sebelius White House.
I think Biden follows the first rule of VP's "do no harm". While his mouth gets him in trouble sometimes, he's a foreign policy expert and an old Washington insider who helps Obama somewhat but may make some PUMA's mad. I guess we'll have to wait and see.
Good choice, tomorrow should be interesting in Springfield.
IMO best remaining realistic choice Obama had. The collective GOP just tugged at their shirt collars thinking about the soundbytes Biden will generate on the stump, not to mention the future VP debate.
The republiClown concern trolls will be here any minute now talking about how Obama made a "huge mistake" of course. Have to collect enough MAC-Action-Points to get that lifetime supply of Saltwater Taffy!
If the Dem convention causes the percentage of the base that supporters Obama to rise from 75 to 82-85, it's over for mcCain.
Biden's not the worst pick. I'm just happy that it wasn't Bayh. Still, I'm fearing what "going negative" will look like against Biden in a national general campaign.
Biden will be great!
relating to PUMA stuff....
Hillary and Obama - I liked them both, and I respect that as the nominee, it is Obama's choice to make. Hillary I am sure will do a good job shepherding those of her supporters (excluding the republican fakers stirring up trouble - just look who founded and still currently funds PUMA to see that for what it mostly is) to support a candidate who shares her policy views almost in their entirety.
I actually think that the extreme outcry of the many legitimate and fake (see above) Hillary supporters may have forced him into considering her less than he may have wanted to, because he could not risk the public perception that he was forced to take her on. Just like Hillary said, the Democrats have said they want a fighter this time - we can't have it both ways. Thankfully, Obama isn't easy to bully.
Fierce old motormouth scrapper Biden. Just the man to balance out ethereal exotic young intellectual Barry. "Storybook" match.
I've been in Obama's camp since before he entered the race, but even with that built-in bias, I always thought that Biden won, on the merits alone, pretty much every presidential debate the Democrats had. He'll be a fierce surrogate on the stump, on the news, and in the VP debate.
(when Drudge had the Obama/Bayh bumper stickers up a few hours ago, I was convinced Bayh was the choice, and had to have a drink.)
Could have wrapped it up with Clinton. Too bad.
Don't worry about those PUMAs, James.
Despite the Concern Troll's attempts to make it seem like an issue (Operation Chaos 2.0?), now that McCain has pigeonholed himself as a "pro life president", the amount of undecided former hillary supporters that will break for McCain will be minimal. Easily negated by the independents that were turned off to mcCain after saddleback.
If Hillary has a really good and sincere speech at the convention, this narrative will be pretty much put to sleep.
Bahahaha,
At least the VP can comment how "clean" his running mate is, you know as compared to all of the other black congressman are, such as Rangel et al.
He can also bring in all of the Indian American vote by commenting on how you have to have an Indian accent to work at a 7-11.
This is sweet. You have a closet racist against a black presidential candidate all on the same ticket.
Do da...do da...do da....
I should also note: my wife has been rooting for Biden since Obama locked the nomination. She loves his perspective and his one liners.
One House, One Spouse:
Obama/Biden
Being from Delaware and a huge Obama supporter I am very happy the choice is Biden. To me the best chice he could have made.
Not sure how I feel about Biden and his mouth. He's been accused of saying some rather racially insensitive things in the past (none of which I have ever heard personally), and he is far from representing a change of the old guard. I'd really like to know Obama's reasoning behind this choice, if this is indeed his choice.
Bahahaha,
At least the VP can comment how "clean" his running mate is, you know as compared to all of the other black congressman are, such as Rangel et al.
He can also bring in all of the Indian American vote by commenting on how you have to have an Indian accent to work at a 7-11.
This is sweet. You have a closet racist against a black presidential candidate all on the same ticket.
Do da...do da...do da....
Akonache,
I agree. I'm glad it's not Bayh, Chet Edwards, or HRC, but I'm not thrilled it's Biden either. That guy's been in Washington too long to not have an unholy number of skeletons in his closet.
well it was basically expected, but a good choice nonetheless. I don't think it gives McCain anyone to counter with in any real way, so thats a positive.
I'm pretty anxious to hear Biden's acceptance speech though. I think it'll be very important in persuading the base, so we'll have to see.
Jack-be-nimble:
You've hit on part of what makes the pair so awesome. If you remember, Obama laughed that comment off. And Biden may be blunt as a hammer and unPC to the bone, but he's not a bigot. So they embody a sort of symbolic reconcilliation.
Biden Biden's a fine choice. Good American, honest liberal, clean and articulate.
It will be interesting how they reconcile the significant policy differences between him and Obama, which may be why this all took so long.
Pro-Lifers also tend to be pro marriage. Anyone who has looked closely at McCain's affair after the Saddleback forum may have trouble voting for McCain. He had a lot of gall leaving his faithfully waiting wife for a much younger beer heiress, who he was fooling around with and getting set to marry before he even divorced. Funny, she was also worth a lot of money (and houses).
Bahahaha,
At least the VP can comment how "clean" his running mate is, you know as compared to all of the other black congressman are, such as Rangel et al.
He can also bring in all of the Indian American vote by commenting on how you have to have an Indian accent to work at a 7-11.
This is sweet. You have a closet racist against a black presidential candidate all on the same ticket.
Do da...do da...do da....
NC_Voter,
This assumes that PUMAs are essentially rational in their choice. Because so many were already ready to vote for John McCain, who's diametrically opposed to both Obama and Hillary's policies, I think that's too much credit to give them.
He may (key word may) still be able to win them over at the convention. And if he can consolidate the base, the election's his to lose. But I wouldn't count on it.
The media loves this pick, because they love the Senator from MBNA. Then again, they loved the Lieberman pick in 2000 (another self-important, DC insider, who regularly flattered the conventional wisdom on topics of importance to the Village).
That being said, Biden, whatever his limitations, has never been as much of an a**hole as Holy Joe. And his brand of self-importance is less likely to harm the ticket than Lieberman's did in Y2K.
One other upside to this pick: the Village seems convinced that, by going to the Senate for his VP, Obama has just increased the odds that McCain will pick Romney as his running mate.
Obama supporters can only hope that this is McCain's thinking, too.
Looks like the GOP has their trained monkeys working overtime tonight - and double posting!
Racist remarks? Do you REALLY want to bring up which side has made more inappropriate gaffes?
The fact that this is the best that the RepubliClown trolls can come up with is a sign that they're worried.
Hey, maybe you can suggest that McCain's VP brings up those points in the VP debate. I really would enjoy watching Biden slaughter your guy for 90-120 mins.
So the news may have leaked before the text, but at least Sean can now leak in peace.
I just couldn't help myself.
I think Biden has more pros when you get into the campaign. The major negatives are one-time talking points for republicans. I cant see Iraq/Questioning Obama to make it more than 3 days in September.
I still think among the PUMA's Biden is a good choice. He never endorsed Obama and did not campaign enough to piss them off.
Try convincing them to vote for Obama/Richardson
I am just hoping that Obama can get through the convention, without the superdelagates throwing the nomination to Hillary. This is a disaster for the dems. Oh no.......
Also the idea about Florida is interesting, I wonder if Obama took it into consideration. If Nate is right and this turns Florida into a toss-up McCain is in huge trouble: it's another must-win state for McCain along the lines of Ohio right now.
We'll see...
I wonder if concern trolls will crawl back to their concern holes under the concern bridge if you concernedly concuss them hard enough.
Jack, there is no way democratic delegates will make a mockery out of Biden. Maybe Obama, but not biden. there is no way they could do that and not have massive riots in the streets.
Please, please, please let McCain pick Romney. I want to see Biden completely own him in a one-on-one debate.
By the way, throw a Romney up against Joe Biden, and whatever verbal gaffes might come out of Biden's mouth elsewhere on the campaign trail, there's going to be Mormon blood all over the stage.
Jack-be-nimble's comments are relatively repetitive concern trolling. What species of PUMA are you? Republican meddler or Democrat who has neglected to notice that Hillary and Obama are peas in a pod on policy.
Mark said...
I wonder if concern trolls will crawl back to their concern holes under the concern bridge if you concernedly concuss them hard enough.
I concur.
People don't vote for Vice Presidents
In the end its going to be about Obama... who Obama is. Vice Presidents have no say in executive decisions, according to the Constitution, they run the Senate.
EPY-
True, but those radical PUMAs you were talking about are a small minority of undecided hillary supporters. They can break for McCain all they want, but their numbers aren't going to make any kind of significant difference. The whole PUMA thing was severely inflated by the media (including severely exaggerating their numbers), especially by the right-wing-radio blowhards. Again, the difference they make will be negated by the continued supporters from independents who do NOT like hillary.
Ben -
A Romney VP pick would be mana from heaven for the Obama campaign at this point. Imagine Biden hitting the stump in ohio reminding the crowd that the vp who exported jobs overseas, and mccain, can't even keep track of how many houses they own on all their fingers and toes! Not to mention the VP debates would be a complete one-sided victory for the DEMS.
FOX News reporting that the McCain campaign has launched its first attack on Biden:
Biden twice said that Barack Obama is not ready to be president and said Obama has bad foreign policy credentials, and as late as 2007 said he stands by that statement.
LOL Mark. I really like Biden. I am very happy it's him and I ma really looking forward to seeing him tomorrow should be very interesting.
Now that Obama has a plagarist on the ticket, they can both have books ghost written for them.
Can't wait and see the poll on Monday before the convention but after this settles a bit. Im hoping for polling of PA, MI, FL, and OH that monday and then the next monday before the republicans.
Jack-be-nimble is just a standard GOP troll who never posts anything of any substance. Ever. Please just ignore him. I never read his posts anymore.
Rudy,
I don't think it will be difficult to reconcile any policy differences between Obama and Biden: who is at the top of the ticket?
And yet it would still be better than anything you'll ever write Jack.
BTW,
Bahahaha,
At least the VP can comment how "clean" his running mate is, you know as compared to all of the other black congressman are, such as Rangel et al.
He can also bring in all of the Indian American vote by commenting on how you have to have an Indian accent to work at a 7-11.
This is sweet. You have a closet racist against a black presidential candidate all on the same ticket.
Do da...do da...do da....
NC_voter,
That may be. Do you know of any pollsters who ask this question? If so, I'd love to see the results because otherwise we aren't going to really know how many radical PUMAs there are until a few weeks after the convention.
Assuming Biden is as good a pick as Lloyd Bentsen was and Romney is as outclassed as Quayle was, why does anyone here think their debate would matter?
PSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS.......
That is the sound of all of the air going out of Daily Kos. What a disappointment it must be for them.......so sad....his bad...
Here is the Kos headline....
This has been the best veep rollout EVER.
Bahahahahahah...../
Be careful you guys
Romney is a very good debater
Jack... why would Kos be disappointed?
Sedi: obviously so. What I was thinking was how they would publicly position the differences. I don't mean the slights that Biden's given Obama in the past, but whether Biden will shift his position to square with Obama's, particularly on Iraq, or whether having Biden gives Obama an opening to become more centrist in his positioning.
Tyrone -
Those adds won't penetrate. A talking point for the media for a few days? (weeks for the righwing blowhards) maybe. Sure would make the blowback worse for mccain if he picked romney, considering the things those two said about each other.
The republicans were hoping for HRC, Kaine or Bayh. Their talking points are going to be ripped to shreds by someone like Biden.
There is nothing in Biden's closet that even comes close to the skeletons (some not so hidden) that Romney has (and that biden would love to talk about).
If not Romney, McC will be forced to pick a non-game changer like Pawlenty or Portman, who biden will rip to shreds in a debate anyways.
It sure would be nice to have an option to hide the posts of the standard GOP trolls. I wonder how many talking points they have to regurgitate until they get an official Mccain-action-center hoop-rolling stick?
Darren --
I think the good thing about a Biden-Romney debate will be the forcefulness with which Biden demolishes all the Bush-Rove-McCain lies.
Along those lines, here's something fun to watch from last year: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1op8vwF5UA
Darren said "Assuming Biden is as good a pick as Lloyd Bentsen was and Romney is as outclassed as Quayle was, why does anyone here think their debate would matter?"
Darren,
Bentsen was not a very good debater or campaigner. He is remembered today solely becuase of his "you're no Jack Kennedy" line against Quayle (truly a classic moment).
The comparison between Biden and Bentsen is another laughable effort by Republicans to cast this as a repeat of Bush-Dukakis (when not trying to cast it as a repeat of Nixon-McGovern, et alia).
As a compassionate conservative, I give to all of you true believers a valuable prize in consolation:
A Scooby snack....
do da....do da....
NcVoter...
Romney is squeeky clean
Stop talking BS
and you should move to a blue state
Terrible pick IMO, both on politics and on policy.
For politics, he's the embodiment of a conservative, coast-to-the-finish-line strategy. Nothing at all creative or different or change from this pick. He can fill the "Dick Cheney role" of being an experienced Washington politician and an attack dog, which you can view as a good or a bad (maybe he can come up with a follow-on to "Noun + Verb + 9/11" that sticks). And don't forget "Neil Kinnock", "Indians at a 7/11", among other gaffes.
As far as policy, the phrase "Senator from MBNA" is a good starting point; Iraq and Anita Hill should come into play as well. On social issues he's just "generic Democrat" in my mind, so that shouldn't be too bad, I guess.
You are putting too much emphasis on the VP debate. There is only one, and again, people vote for the president, not the vice-president.
People keep saying that Biden will make up for Obama's lack of experience and foreign policy. No he won't. Obama will still be Obama with Obama's experience and foreign policy. Biden will not be the president, he will be the VICE-president.
Many are upset that it's not Hillary but I don't think Obama could ever have taken Hillary as VP. Not because of Bill or because of how the Repubs could attack her, but because the danger to Obama’s personal safety would have been too great.
Would someone really be tempted to take out Obama so that Biden could then become President?
Picking Biden definitely makes it clear that Obama is going to go after McCain aggressively. Biden was by far the best "attack dog" in the list and I can't wait to see him go at it. I feel sorry for McCain already.
Jack-be-nimble - me thinks thou doth protest too much...you must be terrified by this pick...love it:)
Re: the comment on Biden being 'racist' to Indian Americans...
I'm an Indian American and I'm still voting the ticket, and happy w/ Biden. I do not feel that he is a racist, but perhaps unartful...
On the other hand, McCain's racism is well known (and, unfortunately, understandable - but that still does not make it right) - go a search on YouTube for McCain & Gook...
For those that don't know, here is what is the fatal flaw of Biden. He is cutting, viceral, mean and vindictive in his attacks. This loses points on the campaing trail.
Since most of you are to remember Bob Dole as a vice-presidential candidate, I will relive it for you. He said,
"I figured it up the other day: If we added up the killed and wounded in Democrat wars in this century, it would be about 1.6 million Americans — enough to fill the city of Detroit".[5] The remark backfired. In 2004,
This is the kind of remark that you can expect from Biden.
Do dah...do dah......
Squeaky clean? Really? PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE encourage the MC campaign to pick Romney. Pleeeeassseee.
Tyrone:
Well then i guess the folks claiming that this won't do anything to sure up Obama's foreign policy will logically have to admit that McCain picking someone like romney would have no effect on on suring up Mc's economic policy, right? Better tell them to stop...
A:
I don't think McCain is racist so much as obsessed with his bad memories. He and Cindy did adopt a kid from Bangladesh, after all.
LOL, they released the GOP parrots and dittoheads already?
Yes he is clean and Romney will deliver Nevada and Colorado safely in the McCain column and probably Michigan if Obama keeps falling in popularity.
This election is going exactly how I have called it so far. I thought Obama would be smart enough to pull in Clinton after what has happened to him the last 2 weeks but I guess he's not smart.
Get ready for Romney NCVoter... you must get loney in that vast red Republican state... but I guess you always have Johnny Edwards to pal around with. He's gonna be loney too.
NC_voter,
The reason Biden doesn't really save Obama on foreign policy is that Biden and Obama disagreed considerably on Iraq policy. It would not be difficult to trot out debate footage of Biden disagreeing with Obama on most of the finer points of Iraq.
The other thing is that even if Biden lowers Obama's negatives on foreign policy, picking him also probably raises the salience of foreign policy.
Imagine the following thought experiment:
50% of people are foreign policy voters, 50% of people are economy voters.
On the economy, people favour Obama 65-35. On foreign policy, people favour McCain 65-35. So Obama appoints Biden, and reduces his negatives to 40-60 on foreign policy, but also raises the salience of foreign policy issues, such that now only 40% of people are economy voters, while 60% are foreign policy voters.
Results:
Obama 46.75%
McCain 53.25%
Am I the only one who is really annoyed that the Obama campaign essentially lied with the whole "first to know" thing? There will be a backlash against them for withholding the information so long that it got all over the press before they released anything.
What a rip off way to just boost your telephone database without even providing the one thing promised in return.
Well, here;s what I posted a couple of days ago...
In order of preference:
SCHWEITZER (by far the most audacious pick)
WARNER (only because he'd guarantee Virginia)
CLARK
WEBB
BIDEN (if Obama picks him, you'll know the gloves are coming off)
BAYH (Obama campaign internals will dictate if he's the pick)
POWELL (he'll endorse at some point)
CLINTON
RENDELL
SEBELIUS
HAGEL (an endorsement would suffice)
RICHARDSON
Any one of the top 5 will do nicely.
Now, sfter BIDEN being confirmed, I still haven't budged. BIDEN is the best attack dog there is. And I don't mean with smears, I mean attacking with knowledge and facts. I thought BIDEN won the early debates that the MSM disingenuously awarde to Hillary. He had the best one-liners and, apart from Mike Gravel, Ron Paul, and Kucinich, spoke the least like a pandering politician.
As for my early favourite, Wesley Clark. He would have brought exellence to the ticket. He's extremely intelligent, but isn't a natural attack dog. Something OBAMA needed. Someone on CNN said OBAMA/BIDEN is a great contrast - COOL/HOT. OBAMA/CLARK would certainly be COOL/COOL.
The question is, will OBAMA use BIDEN's talents? If he does what I think he should do, BIDEN will free up OBAMA to campaign on his strengths, and not bother about responding to ridiclous smears from McDiapers.
BIDEN will win the VP debate, whoever it's against.
What are people's thoughts on Brian Schweitzer? Was there any chance he wanted to neter national politics at this point? Does he want to finish his time as Governor, and wouldn't be confortable making the leap now? He's definately got a bright future.
"He is cutting, viceral, mean and vindictive in his attacks. This loses points on the campaing trail."
Whooooo are you talking about again now? Haha. The desparation from the Republican trolls is so very evident tonight. I'm really enjoying this. Can't wait to see the polls a week from now. Can you, Jack?
Tyrone said "People keep saying that Biden will make up for Obama's lack of experience and foreign policy. No he won't. Obama will still be Obama with Obama's experience and foreign policy. Biden will not be the president, he will be the VICE-president."
Tyrone,
Do you seriously believe that, after eight years of Dick Cheney, the Vice Presidency is still just about attending funerals?
In 2000, Bush picked Cheney for his experience, and that mollified many swing voters who had concerns about Bush's lack of experience.
To hear a self-proclaimed conservative now belittle Obama for making a similar concession to swing voters is sheer partisan hackery.
Another benefit of picking Biden is that, if Obama wins, this will leave a clear field for Democrats in 2016, when Biden will be 73. It is almost certain that Biden would not run for President at that time. This will help to lower tensions in the Democratic Party in 2012, since there will not be a person anointed by Obama as the front-runner for 2016.
I was concerned it was going to be like Geraldo Rivera opening Al Capone's vault. I was hoping for Hillary and a home run but the Dems get a triple with Biden and McCain will throw a wild pitch to win the game for the Dems.
So Michael... you STILL have not been notified by text?
DarienCrow,
Watch independent turnout spike across the country against McCain/Romney if that dithering five-faced magic-underweared jerkoff is on the ticket. I hope to God that John McCain loses so badly his head spins, but I'm kind and merciful enough to hope he has the grace to do it with someone who isn't a gelled-up convictionless weasel riding shotgun with him while he does it.
Reverse psychology? No. I just fucking hate Mitt Romney.
Porridgegun - I agree completely. Anyone who watched CNN's expose on the candidates from the other night knows that Obama does what it takes to get elected. He needed aggression and he got it in spades.
Darien and Michael,
To be honest, as great as the text gimmick was, Obama knows where his bread is buttered. He *had* to let the traditional media break the story or lose his advantage there for the rest of the election.
He knows where his bread is buttered. He knows where the game is won. I was never expecting a text message to beat Drudge or CNN.
And yes, dear god please pick Romney. I'll be doing somersaults.
Good Choice, now I really hope McCain picks Romney, Biden is going to rip this guy apart. The attacks against Romney are ample and will provide a couple of solid negative news cycles. I hope Obama camp unleashes Biden tomorrow, let him make refrence to McCain's housing statement. I have loved the last couple of days with the GOP crapping their pants, I just hope Obama continues the 'houses' attack and uses the veep speech to furthur fuel that controversy instead of stepping over it.
Come on Adam... this was expected.
The only game changer that could have even made things possibly difficult for McCain would have been the Hillary surprise. With all Hillary's negatives it still would been a problem because you guys vote your emotions... you never use your heads.
Biden fits perfectly because Obama wants to turn this into a middle class economic election. Joe Biden is Mr. every day guy. Mr. Pennsylvania. He's the next best thing to Hillary. Personally, i thought Biden was the best Presidential candidate the dems had, yes, better than both Barack and Hillary, but I'm catholic and really relate to Biden. I like hearing the truth even if its politically incorrect.
Biden will bring F.P. experience, help with older voters, help with jews, help with working class, help with men. He'll attack McCain with catchy sound-bite one liners that the MSM love. The only downside is he's libel to say anything if provoked, and he doesn't help with single women. However, Obama's first presidential decision was the right one with regards to winning AND governing.
And in that way, DarienCrow, in our reluctance to use our heads, I suppose we more closely resemble President George W. Bush and Senator John McCain.
Fortunately, we never bother to think about that, since we don't feel that we can relate to them very well, them having so much property and all.
MATT J. H.
Definitely. Biden is Blue Collar. He's no millionaire, he's an average guy, and an all-around straight shooter. He still takes an hour and a half train ride to D.C. to go to work. In the same regard that McCain is out of touch, Biden is in touch with the middle class. That's invaluable for this ticket.
Tito,
If that is the case do you think Pawlenty is McCain's best anti-Biden?
Jack-be-nimble,
You don't know shit about...well, shit.
KOS, himself, was pushing for Kathleen Sebelius. He deliberately left the likes of Clark, Biden and Schweitzer of the website's VP polls. The buzz (not really) around there a week was that Tom Daschle would be Obama's pick. The actual DailyKos community was for Clark, as were the majority of liberal blogs.
DailyKos - Kathleen Sebelius
Crooks and Liars - Wesley Clark
AmericaBlog - ABB
OneGoodMove - Dennis Kucinich/John Edwards
TalkLeft - Hillary Clinton
Huffington Post - ABHRC
Btw, almost every liberal blog agreed upon ABB = ANYBODY BUT BAYH
I'm not a regular Kos reader, but I happened across a fair share of pro-Schweitzer entries there.
Well let me try an example.
I start a business and it becomes successful enough to start employing people. It becomes more successful and I start employing hundreds maybe even thousands.
Democrats somehow believe that I started that business for the purpose of employing people.
You cannot be more wrong.
I started that business to make money... to make a profit. You somehow think my hard work and everybodies paychecks are public property.
As long as you feel this way you will do nothing but weaken this country.
Or, Darien, you could take a non-self-centered view and instead decide that you, with your wonderful business, are part of a bigger community; a community that you choose to support and make better, rather than simply plunder money from. It is that community that likely supported your rise to riches and giving back might actually lead to more wealth coming in to you. Until you learn that, you only weaken this country.
hoser-
Well, in my opinion Romney's the anti-Biden. But I'm guessing you mean more of a counter-punch? I don't know. I'm not familiar enough with Pawlenty. The interesting aspect for him as McCain's pick would be bringing the same age dynamic to the GOP side since he's about Obama's age. Going off of just first visual impressions (which don't mean much, I know) he seems like an everyman type.
Being the Republican governor of what is looking like a blue state is a plus. In that sense he strikes me as something similar to Sebilius. Like her, I don't think he brings the state. He would be less polarizing than Romney, but also maybe more bland just based off the unknown factor.
Like I said, I don't know enough about him but those are my immediate thoughts.
DarienCrow said "Romney will deliver Nevada and Colorado safely in the McCain column and probably Michigan if Obama keeps falling in popularity."
Wow, Darien, you seem really worked up!
As for Romney "delivering" any states, Mormons already turn out at rates similar to the general population, and already vote Republican +55, see this analysis.
Colorado is roughly 2% Mormon, so if Romney as VP gets Mormon participation to rise 20%, that translates into an increase in CO turnout of 0.4%, with an expected net gain to McCain of 0.22%. That is an unreasonable case, with a more likely case of a gain to McCain of 0.1%. Mormons in CO cannot move the state safely to McCain; it is a battleground, and likely will keep us up late on November 4.
Nevada is almost 6% Mormon, so a 20% increase there would equate to a 1.2% increase in turnout, and a 0.66% gain to McCain. Again, the more likely gain is around 0.3% to McCain. Nevada is looking to be a battleground, and again the Mormon vote cannot deliver it safely to McCain.
Michigan -- again with the "Romney's father was Michigan's governor 40 years ago, so that means he will flip the state to McCain" meme. This is baseless speculation. According to the model, McCain currently has less chance of flipping MI
than Obama has of flipping VA. Both are possible, but neither is very likely.
Darien, if you care to offer any facts to support your speculation, I will listen.
Mark said...
"if that dithering five-faced magic-underweared jerkoff is on the ticket."
LMAO!!!
Quote of the night!
So you think us Republicans just "plunder" from you?
I think my point has been made.
hoser-
Addemdum to that about Pawlenty: A lot of people said that Biden would be a bland pick because he talks so much and just drones on and on. So, that's not to say bland is a lasting stigma, just a side effect of him being unknown. Once he's known he may come across in much different terms.
'This election is going exactly how I have called it so far. I thought Obama would be smart enough to pull in Clinton after what has happened to him the last 2 weeks but I guess he's not smart.'
It must be nice to be so much smarter than Obama. I guess that's why you're about to be nominated to be a candidate for the presidency, and Obama's just some schmuck posting on the internet, right?
Anyway, I'm relatively pleased with the Biden pick. He's smart, and quite witty, and will probably provide some help around the margins. Still, all the hype over the last week led me to hope that Obama had some spectacular (e.g., Gore) surprise up his sleeve.
hosertohoosier,
In your scenario in which Biden could end up hurting Obama, you suggest that Biden could increase the attention on foreign policy. That seems fair enough. But there is no way that 10% of people would all of a sudden change the primary set of issues that they plan to vote on just because of the VP pick. I'm guessing those numbers were arbitrary, just to demonstrate your point, but it's hard for me to see more than a handful of people who would decide that foreign policy was more important than economy just because Biden was Obama's VP choice. I'm skeptical.
I think it will reassures voters knowing that he VP will be very experienced. Cheney was reassuring to my dad when he voted for Bush in 2000. Obviously, it was a huge mistake, and Cheney didn't act like the adult in the room, but...
No, I think you were very clear that you plunder...your statement was "I started that business to make money...to make a profit" and that that was the only reason you were in business. What can I say, a spade is a spade.
You know how some people just are not likable, thats Romney. I get the feeling he would sell out his kids to get ahead. He's greasy. Biden will destroy him.
DarienCrow,
Don't worry - one of the many things that Republicans AND Democrats have in common is a propensity to plunder from people.
You're kidding yourself if you think that your team is any better. Bush may cut your taxes, but he'll still spend your money. And who's going to be picking up the tab? You don't happen to have any children, do you?
Dude I live in Las Vegas.
I was here for the Republican Caucus. I was here supporting John McCain and McCain got crushed here.
Why did McCain get crushed here?
Mormons... thousands of Mormons.
I don't need to show you anything.
I witnessed it. Romney will deliver Nevada for McCain.
DarienCrow:
Would that be the point that real income growth for the vast majority of Americans plummets under Republican stewardship of the economy?
Having watched Senator Biden on CSPAN over many years, I have to say the Obama campaign made a decent choice. Biden comes across as a Senator who does his research. He has shown a quick mind and serious depth of expertise in televised Foreign Relations Committee hearings.
It could be an intriguing "reality" show if the McCain campaign does go after Biden. The Senator with the longer record and greater experience (Biden) is well equipped to take on the older but "less experienced" Senator's record (McCain).
And the second-favorite son in Nevada's Republican caucuses?
You think the Ron Paul Republicans are going to run out to the voting booths on Election Day to pull the lever to move Romney into Observatory Circle?
Yes Mark I have 4 children.
Daughter - 27 - Republican
Daughter - 25 - Democrat
Daughter - 21 - doesn't care
Son - 19 - doesn't care
I thought Huckabee and the Evangelicals gave a thumbs down to Romney.
Funny line by Pat Buchanan this evening on Hardball (?) ... they were talking about Romney changing positions on abortion and gun control and Pat said "Romney's the real *change* candidate"
A couple of weeks ago Conan O'Brien was talking about if they made a tv movie about the McCain campaign they'd have Wilfred Brimley play McCain and any tv weather guy play Romney.
They'll all care once they're stuck footing the bill, trying to pay down the gargantuan national debt this administration has contributed so heartily to. And so will those college students in Ohio.
I completely understand if you're not running into the arms of the Democratic Party. But I don't understand how you can honestly think the Republican Party has done right by us all over the past seven and a half years. The distinction between the two when it comes to the size and role of government has become imaginary, a smokescreen, empty rhetoric.
Ron Paul... don't make me laugh.
They are college kids from UNLV trying to make noise. Just like Obama kids fron UNLV trying to make noise.
Democrats are always... every election year... sounding off about how the youth vote is going to deliver for you. They never do.
Tito,
I meant that for McCain, Pawlenty would somewhat ease his economic credential concerns, and also be a "regular guy" alternative to Biden. Pawlenty is not especially wealthy, and is from Minnesota, which automatically adds about 35% to one's folksiness and regular-ness. Pawlenty coined the term "Sam's Club Republicans", I believe.
Also in the VP debate, I think Pawlenty would be a good foil to make Biden look mean, by contrasting Biden's attack dog style with his more "aw shucks" demeanour.
Then again, some of his jokes could backfire (I liked it):
http://www.politico.com/blogs/jonathanmartin/0508/Pawlenty_jokes_about_sex_life_or_lack_thereof.html
And they're not going to in Nevada this time, either. They're just going to sit on their hands and let the party ID gap widen on Election Day.
Wait, I thought this was Mitt...
http://blogs.chron.com/tmi/Guy%2BSmiley-w_Mic.JPGcommand%20GetPreview&library%20Photo%2BArchive&RecID%201262430&Filename%20Guy%2BSmiley-w_Mic%20(2).jpg
Technically, if you look at the Biden pick, Obama hasn't formally announced it. CNN states two Democratic insiders who spoke on the condition of anonymity said it was Biden.
So, technically, it's a leak. All the news sources that I've come across say the sources are reliable, but you have to trust them on that.
Not saying it's not Biden, but it would be funny if it's not. The media are all racing to be first to report the pick and could have over-reacted.
Obama-Sebelius still lives!
Meanwhile, I'm going to go do some research on Biden now.
Mark,
Nevada was a caucus, upon which Paul focused all of his post-New Hampshire energy. He won 6000 votes. Indeed, the fact that Ron Paul went nowhere, even though two of the early primary states (Nevada and New Hampshire) are probably the most libertarian in the country, should tell you something.
Ron Paul's main appeal was among young and new voters, who were very angry with Bush, were atheists, often liberal independents (oh and they were overwhelmingly male). These were not people likely to vote for McCain, Bush, or any Republican (possibly including Ron Paul) ever.
Well here it is Mark.
In the last four years my income has tripled and I now own a house in a great area.
Everyone I know is better off than they were 8 years ago. The Dems I know are doing great... but they just think other people are having a hard time. The foreclosure problem is mostly people who bought houses to flip them for profit. No ability to flip for profit? So they walk away from the property. I know this because my wife is a Real Estate agent and she deals with thiese houses all the time. WE ARE NOT IN A RECESSION!
"According to the model, McCain currently has less chance of flipping MI than Obama has of flipping VA. Both are possible, but neither is very likely."
This is an accurate read of the model, but I'm a bit skeptical of it. Obama has held a lead in every poll during the past three months, with leads ranging from +2 to +9. The state is traditionally Democratic and Obama started off behind in that state because of the messiness with the primary there. His polling lead is 4.5%, but he's being dragged down by the trend. Change the trend, and MI doesn't look that close.
VA, on the other hand, has been polling very, very tight all season. In the past three months, every poll has been in the range between Obama +2 and McCain +1, and four of those polls have been Obama +2. The polling average is Obama +0, but the trend really hurts him to make it -1.6 for Obama. The 538 regression also hurts Obama, but it basically only costs him .5. So if the trend changes, VA could start to look purple or even light blue without a huge change in momentum. Nate's model is still picking up a trend for McCain, but the human observers all notice that the trend has stopped, and Obama seems to be starting to reverse it. Of course, with the conventions coming up, trends don't me squat.
My point is that VA is a lot closer than MI, even if the 538 model makes them seem almost comparable now. In my view, Obama has a MUCH better chance of winning VA than McCain does of winning MI.
DarienCrow said "I start a business and it becomes successful enough to start employing people. ... Democrats somehow believe that I started that business for the purpose of employing people. ... You somehow think my hard work and everybodies paychecks are public property."
Darien, you must keep your copy of Atlas Shrugged by your nighttable. Your simplistic Randian worldview is exactly what I would expect.
Let me clue you in. I am a Democrat and an entrepreneur. The vast majority of Democrats respect and admire business owners. You are referring to communism as described by Marx (the not-funny Marx brother).
The populism you hear from Democrats is directed against corporate executives (none of whom are entrepreneurs) who make decisions which have negative economic impacts on middle class and working class Americans, such as outsourcing jobs or closing factories.
I am not a populist, since some of these changes are inevitable, but I make an exception for vultures like Mitt Romney, who do not create jobs or real wealth. Instad, Romney used investment capital to purchase existing enterprises in order to make immediate profits without regard to the health of the acquired enterprises. When those enterprises failed, it hurt hundreds of other businesses, because those businesses had to write off bad debts and also lost future purchases from the failed businesses.
An entrepreneur respects the health of the business he or she creates; a vulture does not respect the health of the businesses it kills.
Obama's website now confirms: Obama has chosen Joe Biden.
DarienCrow,
I'm not talking about the present state of our economy. I'll even let those comments slide (just like our dollar!)
I'm talking about the fact that the national debt is skyrocketing toward $10 trillion, while the federal budget is deep in the red, while we're spending far more than is necessary in Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere. Where do you think that money is going to come from? Are you banking on it just going away, or on no one asking for it someday?
I don't agree with higher taxes either, but lower taxes combined with higher government spending? That's just stupid.
This is an incredible election year.
Biden's best bits from the Democratic debates:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DteDRD6cbbM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p7Y8AFctpjo
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FpPR4VPt47I
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E9aIb-IplqY
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FpPR4VPt47I&NR=1
DarienCrow:
Holy cow, you're absolutely right! How could I have been so blind? Of course! The tsunami of foreclosures is just the natural result of 8.4 percent of total U.S. homeowners, or 12.7 percent of homeowners with mortgages SPECULATING UNWISELY IN REAL ESTATE! What morans.
If I remember correctly in the tv show Jericho, a fictional senator named Pawlenty conspired to nuke almost every big city in the US create chaos then blame the attack on North Korea and then go against the official US government to form his rogue government that controlled the country from the west coast to the Mississippi river.
Rich,
This calls for some slip-shod analysis...
I think Obama not texting people first will hurt him among female voters, who have been told "I'll call you". That he made his announcement at 3 am furthers that damage, with the Hillary reference.
It also demonstrates Obama's consistent favoritism of Hawaii. While the announcement comes at 3 am EST, it is still a decent hour for news in Hawaii. Is Obama bankrolled by the Luau lobby? We just don't know. He won't tell us.
Finally, as to the economy debate, don't tell ME the economy is doing fine (you could check the BLS, which suggests there is a slowdown, but not a recession). I just lost half my fake Rasmussen-dollars from selling short on Biden. Not that I can vote, but Obama just lost my vote... moreso.
DarienCrow said
"Dude I live in Las Vegas.
I was here for the Republican Caucus. I was here supporting John McCain and McCain got crushed here.
Why did McCain get crushed here?
Mormons... thousands of Mormons.
I don't need to show you anything.
I witnessed it. Romney will deliver Nevada for McCain."
Darien, I don't want to pile on, but the best you have is that the Republican caucuses were swamped by Mormons?
Caucuses always attract the driven partisans (like those of us posting here late into the night), but that is a poor indicator that a relatively small demographic group will swing an entire state. Especially when that demographic group already participates, and already has a propensity to go overwhelmingly for that particular party.
You could make a similar argument about African Americans. The differences are that AAs make up a larger percentage of the population in most states, and AAs turn out at lower rates than average. Still, in the deep south, increases in AA turnout will not swing states from McCain to Obama.
CO and NV are both competitive now, and having Romney will certainly help McCain in those two states, but the data does not support your belief that Mormons will "deliver" those states to McCain if Romney is on the ticket.
Yep the logo on myBO now says Obama/Biden and has a photo of Obama and Biden.
Rove's pal Fournier didn't waste any time *keeping up the fight* with his AP wire story trashing Obama and Biden.
hosertohoosier said...
Pawlenty is not especially wealthy, and is from Minnesota, which automatically adds about 35% to one's folksiness and regular-ness.
I think you've just outlined something that should be called the "Garrison Keillor Rule of Politics".
Like I said, I don't know too much about him so I'll have to read up on him. His regular-ness and folksy feel comes across in how he looks, which is what I meant by him seeming like and everyman.
It's the problem with governors. If they've served more than one term, then they have great experience and a robust record. But, we've got 50 of them. The problem is they're not all that talked about unless a crisis hit's their state or they make a move into national politics. Even governors of large states (except Arnold since he's an actor) don't get all that much attention.
I think if McCain wants to fight this on the issues, Pawlenty is a better choice. But if he's gonna go on the attack and be forceful then having someone who is, as you put it, "aw shucks", will just seem really out of place.
I'll check out that link in just a little while, I would like to read up on Pawlenty. It's more refreshing to read up on someone who has positives that get caught up in all the negatives day-to-day.
mark,
if you are talking about the long-term, a few things to consider. First-off, the deficit is 2.5% of GDP - half the size of the deficit at the early 90's.
Secondly, productivity growth has actually been very good since the late 90's (after barely growing from 1973-1995). There will always be bad and good years - but productivity is the only way people get better off without working more. The US has more college graduates per capita than any other major industrialized country (by a good margin too).
Inequalities have a lot more to do with the changing economy. Blue collar jobs are going by the wayside because they are obsolete. I see that as a reason to retrain people - not an invitation to spread around the wealth, or cut America off from trade.
My bigger concern isn't so much inequality, but national wealth, because the US faces an increasing threat from an emerging Chinese superpower. America needs a strong economy to face down and deter that threat from turning into a war, more than it does a "just" economy.
Apparently, the texts are starting to arrive - though not to everyone at once.
I have the sneaking suspicion that he's sending them out by time zone, so that everyone gets them at 3 AM.
...
I am smitten all over again.
Sedi said about the likelihood of Obama flipping VA "This is an accurate read of the model, but I'm a bit skeptical of it."
Sedi, I also am skeptical of the model's win percentage in VA, since it is due to the trend adjustment and the regression.
However, it will take a very substantial ground game for Obama to flip VA, and even then, I do not think Obama's chances are better than 50/50.
In his two runs for President, Biden got a grand total of zero delegates. What a campaigner.
So in terms of influence as VP do you figure Biden for a Quayle or a Cheney? My money is on the latter.
Best Biden video
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1op8vwF5UA
He is one of those guys you love ONLY when he is on your side, hehehehe
Well, since the Republitrolls are out in force, we know this was a great pick! Nice job by Barack. Biden has strong credentials on foreign policy, the economy, and the judicary - - covering all the bases. Working-class appeal out the wazoo; older voters love him, Catholics love him; Jewish people love him.
I just heard Ohio and Florida tilting toward Obama.
Time for the Mittens hail mary (oops), McClown! But really, that's selfish on my part, as I just want to see Biden reduce the Mittinator to a puddle of goo (with nice hair) in the Veep debate. I MUST see this, actually. Take us home, McHouses!
hosertohoosier said "First-off, the deficit is 2.5% of GDP - half the size of the deficit at the early 90's."
hoser,
For 2007, the deficit was 2.97% of GDP, according to the figures from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Treasury Department.
That is not the number that concerns me. This is what concerns me.
In 1981, when Reagan entered office, the national debt was 31.9% of GDP. In 1993, when Clinton entered office, the national debt was 66.3% of GDP. In 2001, when Bush entered office, the national debt was 57.3% of GDP.
In 2007, the national debt was 65.2% of GDP.
Each year, debt service on the national debt is taking up a larger portion of the federal budget, and is growing faster than any other aspect of government spending.
Hoser, it is possible to point to external factors to explain some of this, but it is clear that the policies of Republican Presidents have been the primary factor in the ballooning federal debt, since the only period the debt decreased was when Clinton was in office.
I am concerned that four more years of these wrong-headed economic policies will hamper our abilities to compete in the global marketplace.
OK, well that's over. Personally, I don't find Biden particularly interesting, but I wonder how this will affect Obama's numbers.
Now it's time for us to all start speculating on McCain's pick. Considering his age there is a non-trivial likelihood that McCain's VP would actually become president, it might be worth thinking about.
McCain WANTS to pick Lieberman badly. But most democrats arent fond of Lieberman and many Republicans hate him. Add the fact that they both look like two very old and boring men, it kind of is a bad choice.
McCain is owned by many people though, and they wont let him pick Lieberman. My bet goes to either Romney as a safe choice..... or Pawlenty if they want to brighten the campaign up.
Tom Ridge right now i feel would be pretty bad. The only reason you may pick him is because he is from PA.... Obama pretty much had PA and with Biden has secured it. I see Ridge as someone that will upset the already miserable base while failing to get PA... just like Pawlenty wont get Minnesota
If this is the real pick then it is a disaster for Obama on a few levels. The whole "be the first to know" thing will certainly be seen as a broken promise. It will also sort of deemphasize the freshness that Obama represented. The new politics of hope and a younger calling of change in the voters will sort of deflate, and this will come off as politics as usual.
Biden will certainly be a liability. Both in the fact that he didnt seem to think much of Obama a while ago, and the fact that he has a nice history of mild racist statements.
Hilary would have provided a certain level of comfort that Biden really doesn't. As well as a level of excitement. Biden is, outside of democratic or liberal circles, very very dull. He doesnt have a, as McCain't-remember-his-houses would say, celebrity type of appeal. Obama needed a big name, and with this he doesn't have it.
Who takes Biden's Senate seat?
Obama could have done much worse and, in my opinion, a little better (Sebelius, Schweitzer). But Biden is solid and can attack like the other 2 probably wouldn´t. It´s going to get nasty and sadly, it works, so especially in the past few days Biden and Clinton became extremely intriguing picks.
All the comments by Obama himself might have fitted another choice better, but they have also never excluded someone with Joe Biden´s characteristics.
Well, and he is really likeable, and as I said before, the "upgrade" version to John McCain, more experience, foreign policy credentials, and taller and more white hair. That sounds a bit stupid.. but some people decide that way.
PA was already looking almost safe before the decision, and now it is. But maybe he can do something to tip the scale in Florida, especially if McCain picks Romney (poor Mitt, btw). I am not yet sure about Ohio, that will be hard in any case, but maybe Biden can give West Virginia a reason to return into the Democratic camp.
Well, the plagiarism stuff will come up again, but Obama has already survived that charge in this campaign. The 2 together are such an interesting combination that this should not harm too much. Real negatives are hard too find, and we probably have to wait for Joe Biden to create them himself, but he was so secretive in the past months that he has probably passed the test for the Obaam campaign. He hurts the change narrative a little bit, and that´s why I preferred other picks, but in the end, the US doesn´t really like revolutions.
This pick enhances Obama´s chances to become president quite a bit. It´s not a "gamechanger" but maybe 1-2% nationally, more evenly divided than Hillary Clinton ever could. I wonder if Biden would stay for a 2nd term - then 70? At a point when Obama´s change is more bearable to the people. Joe Biden certainly will not become president in 8 years but it is a good final step for his career.
Boring choice. Bad choice. Uggh. Even Hillary Clinton would have been more fun. Who gives a f--------- whether the media is happy about it? The media have proved consistently they know nothing about anything- that's why this site was created, right?
Liz Sidoti of the AP just made up her story announcing this. First she says a confirmed leak happened before the text message ( a lie, unless CNN and Fox both did not have this).
As for the pick, it is a fine safe pick that might help a smidge, and it won't hurt although looks like McCain is going to make a sound bite ad hitting BO with Biden's comments from the primaries.
He should have given more lip service to the Clintons.
It's a decent choice, but who has any doubt that Russia selected our VP?
Biden? In the primaries he was my 1st choice for Obama's V.P. amongst all the other Demo candidates - something to do with (1) his Guiliani = noun/verb/9-11 which was simply/unexpectedly brilliant and (2) his gaffe about Obama being "well-spoken, etc." AND combined with Obama's subsequent rescue/defense of Biden for that gaffe during one of the earlier debates. It had the endearing effect of humanizing, in rather distinct/divergent ways, what are otherwise two beltway politicians (don't get me wrong: I'm an early Obama supporter but have no illusions that he doesn't play the D.C. game as well as the rest of them... his precocious rise through/past the Chicago machine is pretty strong evidence of that, non?). Incidentally, the recent meme of "noun/verb/P.O.W." also seems to practically foreshadow Biden's selection, which makes me think that maybe this wasn't so coincidental... Oh, thanks Nate for staying up late to publish this news. Sleep well kittens, there's some GOP ass-whooping to be done.
Biden is sort of like the new McCain - aggressive and, unlike Hillary, sounds honest. And when voters start to compare Biden with McCain, something they'll inevitably do, they'll also see that Biden is the real foreign policy expert and find McCain to be the "empty suit" or "celebrity". A good pick.
Jackson,
Of course - but why would Putin want Biden as VP?
Well lets just say they have something in common (plagiarism):
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/article695235.ece
Biden seems like a solid choice. He fits the role very well and provides a contrast to Obama in many respects, but will not overshadow him. I also take it they'll work well together.
Will it be a make or break issue? I don't think so. I doubt there'll be much if any change in the polling, even state polling.
However, to those who argue that Biden would out argue Romney, I'll remind you that many Democrats said the same thing about Edwards v. Cheney or McCain v. Obama. And look how that turned out.
Nick, good question because I think Biden is up for re-election to the Senate this year. Not sure if they'll play this like Bentsen and have him run for Senate *and* VP simultaneously, but Biden is popular enough in Delaware to do that with ticking people off.
Then I guess Biden resigns his Senate seat if he's elected VP.
The Governor of Delaware is Ruth Ann Minner, a Democrat. Wikipedia says she is constitutionally barred from seeking a third term, so Lt. Governor Carney (also a Democrat( is running instead. Minner is 73-- too old to take Biden's seat?
I've spent maybe 14 hours in Delaware in my life, so a real Delaware expert will have to weigh in on this.
I mean WITHOUT ticking people off, of course.
The Biden plagiarism thing is a non issue.
He credited Neil Kinnock in every single speech except one, which happen to be caught on video.
I amnew to DE, but he is a god here. He could run for both without issue. It is also a very intellectual state that is safe for dems.
I would guess that Joe Biden´s son Beau Biden would fill an eventual gap.
3am And the phone rings? I didn't answer. Guess I don't get to hang in the Situation Room with Biden and Obama.
I feel sorry for Mittster/Pawlenty/Jindal in their debate with Joe. It will be their reduction to Dan Quayle status.
Brad
I live right across the border in Pa. He's very popular in Pa being from Scranton and the only liberal democratic senator in the area.
Alex S. -
Beau Biden is gonna be depolyed to Iraq in October.
Obama's only legitimate rationale for seeking the presidency was to be a post-partisan agent of change.
He just selected a man who hasn't held a job outside Washington for 35 years and is known for attack politics.
The politics of hope and change indeed.
Over at the Hillary blogs, they are infuriated that Obama "insulted" Clinton by purposely sending the text at 3 AM, even though many people, me and Nate included, got theirs before 3.
Everything is about Hillary with them.
I don't have a vote. I have admired Obama's campaign, until now. Now I doubt he'll win, unless McCain self-destructs (appointing Romney for example).
I think the whole text announcement and choice has been a flop. The delay makes me think Obama was dithering. The teasing with people like Chet Edwards was a joke. If Obama needed the money I'd half believe he was playing the intrade markets for a day, getting his staff to drop hints and move the odds around. At least that would be more rational than a call at 3am two days late.
As expectation management goes, I give it an F for Flop. Of course, if McCain goes and picks Romney "because the GOP deserves the worst" it won't matter. But if I were a netroots person, I'd be irritated, not enthused.
Like Cheney tied up Wyoming in 2000 and 2004, Biden ties up Delaware's 3 votes. Big deal.
Biden's political radar is also not great: "If I don't win the nomination, the likely nominee is going to be Hillary." Well, she DID get the most votes.
Clarke, you and I both know that argument is only plausible if you count Hillary's votes from MI and dont count the 90% caucuses he won.
Stop spreading lies.
How phoney does Obama's webshite look now with Biden's mug plastered all over it?
Well, it is not a BAD pick, although we will hear a lot about his past plagiarism and his own comments regarding Obama's candidacy. He should help lock down PA as well.
However, the VP rollout was another gaffe on Obama's part as the fact that it was leaked early, came during a dead news time and will compete with the story that he didn't even consider HRC may make for an interesting week in Denver.
I am wondering why everyone is doubting Romney in a debate. He is a very polished debater and is not prone to the mind-scratching gaffes that Biden tends to make over the years. In fact, with OH and VA now appearing to stay red (Biden won't be a help in these states) a pick like Palin or Romney could be damaging to Obama's hopes of winning.
We may rightfully make and issue of Romney's tenure at Bain capital but Biden has no less skeletons than Romney as he is waist-deep in corporate "issues" as well.
No substantive change on the prediction markets. Still holding steady around 59%. No massive selloff. No surge in price.
The markets may need some more time to react as people wake up to the news and digest it.
So far, Biden doesn't help and doesn't hurt...
Biden is a safe pick who adds some spice to Obama's sweet rhetoric. He'll take enough heat from the base to intrigue the so-called "independent" voters, and he'll provide a sharp-tongued willingness to engage the GOP ticket.
I would challenge the GOP spinmeisters to name one instance where something a running mate said before becoming the running mate sank the ticket. George Herbert Walker Bush famously mocked Ronald Reagan's economic plan by calling it "voodoo economics", a colorful phrase if ever there was one, and I believe Reagan went on to do fine politically.
Run all the ads with Biden criticizing Obama that you want. Go ahead and show the world that Barack Obama can unite with his critics. Then, after the election is over, your postmortem of the failed McCain candidacy can include lots of second guessing that maybe - just maybe - trying to make folks scared of Barack Obama was the wrong tack to take in the face of Obama's wildly optimistic message.
Obama/Biden 2008
The problem with Hillary was that the "three people in the White House who all think they should be President" dynamic never went away. There was no way Obama could trust her - or Bill. For all the shows of unity and support (and you know she has her fingers crossed behind her back the whole time), that so-called "dream ticket" would have been a personality nightmare. Never mind that it would only have continued to feed the Clintons' fantasies that they still own the Democratic Party and/or its message. Their day is over now and it will be even more over in 2012, no matter what happens this November.
1. Biden choice puts ticket in a historical context of likely winners rather than losers, because it is highly likely that ticket will both IL and DE. Except for the Agnew fluke, you don't win unless you win both home states. Cf 1988 Bentson had no chance of swinging TX.
2. I use a different State Similarity Score than Nate. Mine is purely demographic based upon Ancestry Census response. (http://kromkowski.blogspot.com/
see still unmelted paper) You'll see that in a minimum tree spanning network, DE occupies and interesting position. First, it hooks to VA and the South. (Biden himself has noted this, by his rather odd comment about post civil war DE, when he started his campaign which I won't repeat but I bet he will because he can't help himself.) So, VA still stays in play.
But it also hooks via MI to the Middle America group (MI,OH,PA,KS,IN MO).
What this means is that elected officials in DE like Biden understand how to connect not to some "generic white guy" but to the multi-ethnic mix of Polish, Italian, Irish, German Americans, etc. the "not WASPS", mostly but not exclusively catholics. New Castle County census tracts are revealing.
3. DE has some important bell-weather counties.
So even though my first choice was jerry brown, I can live with Biden and what he brings to the ticket from a strategic point. He's also a nice guy, you'd have to be doing that Amtrak commute from Wilmington to DC for so long. I did it for a few years from Balt. to DC, and my father's been doing it for 30. So Biden may be the only guy whose outlasted more conductors than my father on that stretch.
I would challenge the GOP spinmeisters to name one instance where something a running mate said before becoming the running mate sank the ticket.
Bill P, you have a fair point. Though, Biden's "experience" comments do highlight the main concern voters have about Obama and directly tie to McCain's main narrative against Obama.
The pick does dilute the 'Change' argument as to get someone with more time in Washington than Biden, you would have to pick Ted Kennedy or Robert Byrd (Stevens would also, but, thank God, he only has four months left). This is a pick made from weakness and will not be a 'game-changer'. If he was afraid to compete with the two Clintons, I still don't know why he punted and didn't pick Warner and seal the election. The Obama-Biden ticket sorely lacks executive experience and it a case can legitimately be made on this basis agianst this ticket (as well as the expected "attacks" coming from the RNC).
"John McCain is a personal friend, a great friend and I would be honored to run WITH OR AGAINST John McCain"
- Joe Biden
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJnC28lNQSo
Looks like it's "against"!
This is the "Ivory Tower" ticket.
Both Obama and Biden represent the elitist "college professor" type. Indeed Biden himself is a sometimes college professor. Many democrats won't see the harm, and in fact they often gravitate towards this type of politician. But the general voting public traditionally has a very difficult time connecting with people like this. You saw it in Saddleback. Its for that reason that Biden is the worst choice.
Damn. The GOP trolls got up early to come out and slam Biden. Scared much? Gotta get out in front of this one, huh? Suddenly everyone's a psychic and an expert on demographics. Seven houses and massive job layoffs won't play too well in the Rust Belt guys. You know it, that's why you've all gone over the top on the negativity - before the conventions, no less!
Pawlenty = Quayle
Romney = Toast
Have fun.
If the the frantic response from conservatives and rePUMAcans is any evidence, it looks like Obama made a very good choice.
Great news - i'd really settled on either Biden or Bayh a month ago (really liked Bayh a little better) but that's ok.
Biden will fill the most common role for a successful VP pick in the last 30 years - the senior washington insider as vp with the charismatic washington outsider as p -
Carter/Mondale, Reagan/Bush, not Bush/Quayle, Clinton/Gore, Bush/Cheney. It's the winning formula and there is no way McCain can do it because HE'S the senior DC insider so it'll be upside-down (like Kerry/Edwards).
"Both Obama and Biden represent the elitist "college professor" type. Indeed Biden himself is a sometimes college professor. Many democrats won't see the harm, and in fact they often gravitate towards this type of politician. But the general voting public traditionally has a very difficult time connecting with people like this."
Yeah, right. The guy (Biden) that OpenSecrets lists as having the lowest net worth in the Senate -- he has been in debt for most of his career -- will be received as too elite. Not the guy (McCain) whose father was an admiral and who married a multi-millionaire and two days ago literally did not know how many houses he and his wife owned. Biden is NOT a law-professor type, he is a blue-collar type, to the extent that anyone in the Senate is. One can make a number of critique of Biden, but being elitist is not one that will ring true.
This is definitely going to help rally the base, since Obama's chief problem has been older voters. Biden is reassuring and plays well in the media.
He's also pretty popular with Liberals, despite what our Reich-wingers might think:
This from a recent Daily KOS diary:
"I believe in Joe Biden because he's a straight-talker. I think many of us - especially myself - can appreciate the infrequent lapses in tact that come with honesty. I believe in Joe because he's the best of both worlds to me - experienced, but not a D.C. resident for life. He grew up middle class, he experienced unimaginable hardships, and he's not nearly as wealthy as he should be at his station. I believe in Joe because I've grown up, and it takes more than a saxophone and shades to impress me. I believe in Joe because he's made the sacrifices for his family that my family has had to make as my grandfather, grandmother and great-grandmother got sick and passed away over the last decade.
I believe in Joe because he acts like a man and stands up for his character and his loved ones - when he failed in 1988, he took the blame, he packed up and left Iowa gracefully, he survived a near-death experience and he became a better person. When he messed up at the beginning of 2007, he took responsibility, learned from the mistake, and became a much better candidate because of it. More than any other candidate, he's the opposite of Dubya - instead of being a blue blood that pretends to be a normal guy, he's a normal guy that has to act like a senator. Instead of acting smarter than he is, you know he dumbs it down for the Sunday morning pedantry of MTP, FTN, and others. He builds character, he takes responsibility without putting out fifty press releases about it, he learns from his mistakes, and he knows how to make our friends around the world care about us again."
I personally liked Wesley Clark, but at least it's not someone like Kaine who would be another slap at women who supported Hillary. (PUMAs don't count, they are Republicans who supported Hillary because she was a woman).
The McCain house gaffe may cause him to reconsider Romney. This gaffe will pay off more, because it undercuts the GOP attack line that Obama is the elitist. Plus, can you imagine the disparities in wealth between Obama/Biden vs. McCain/Romney. Obama can say, "yes John McCain did choose a rich man, he is worth well over 5 million."
I am loving the "One House, One Spouse" slogan for Obama.
1. It's catchy, great bumper sticker.
2. Speaks to the false claims that Obama is the elitist.
3. Speaks to the false claim that McCain is the superior moral candidate.
st. paul's comment is good but with one glaring exception .. the top half of the ticket all had executive experience and a wise-old Washington head was added to complement the ticket. Since Biden and Obama have zero executive experience, this comparison may not apply in this instance.
It would have been far better for Obama to pick someone with executive experience as that generally is the winning ticket. The Republicans seem relieved by the pick as Clinton/Warner/Gore would have been a game-ender.
Now McCain has a game-ender by picking Palin
The choice of Biden -- a safe, solid, but not spectacular pick -- raises one interesting possibility for McCain: will he choose a woman to try to attract some of the Clinton voters who supported her because she is female? While certainly a minority of Clinton's support, some of the die-hards exhibit an incredible irrationality that suggests that their support was largely based on gender, not policies. If McCain selects a female running mate, he could make a serious play for these voters, many of whom are already disaffected.
Sarah Palin in AK has certainly been mentioned, but the scandal she is dealing with certainly means that she comes with baggage. A much bigger problem would be that it would completely undermine McCain's best attack against Obama: experience. Palin has only been governor since 2006, and previously she was mayor for six years of a town with fewer than 10,000 people. Given McCain's age, could he really pick Palin and reassure voters that she would be capable of being commander-in-chief if he dies or becomes incapacitated? Personally, I think that experience is massively overrated, and I'd say that Palin is qualified to be president. But you can't attack Obama for inexperience and then run with Palin.
Other women have been mentioned, of course. Carly Fiorina, however, has never held elected office, which even I would say makes her not very well qualified to be VP. Plus, she cut lots of jobs when she was at HP -- that might go over well with shareholders, but not voters. Meg Whitman also has never held elected office. Kay Bailey Hutchinson might be possible, though it doesn't help at all geographically and there hasn't been much buzz about her. Someone mentioned Olympia Snowe in a thread the other day. I think that would be a brilliant pick by McCain (as an Obama supporter it would make me sweat a bit), but there has been no suggestions of her at all. Plus, several of the more prominent conservatives here suggested that they wouldn't even vote for a ticket with Snowe on it.
So it looks to me like McCain has a huge opening, but doesn't have a well-positioned female candidate to fill the spot. Am I overlooking somebody? (And don't say Hillary, because it isn't going to happen.)
Oh, please. If Joe Biden is an "Ivory Tower" professor-type, then all ten of John McCain's houses must be carved out of elephant bones. Biden comes from a working class Pennsylvania background, is the second least affluent member of the Senate, and takes the train from his one (1) house in Delaware to get to work every day. However, I don't know his thoughts on arugula, so it is still possible that he's an out-of-control elitist.
As for concern trolls arguing that he compromises Obama's message of change, the fact is Biden is exactly what he needs to bring change about. It's a fresh-faced outsider teamed up with an experienced hand who knows how the system works. I think that's going to hold up very well against McCain/Romney and their plan for America, which will presumably be to end the housing crisis by buying homes for everyone who votes for them.
"Now McCain has a game-ender by picking Palin"
No, no, no, no! As I just noted, Palin has been in office less than two years. She is the governor of one of the least populous states. Her only previous experience is being on the city council, then mayor and city manager, of a medium-sized town (less than 10,000 people). For a 72-year-old candidate to choose a candidate that makes Obama look very experienced by comparison would essentially be sacrificing his best line of attack against Obama. That's not to mention the scandal she is dealing with right now. Securing AK's three electoral votes would be helpful, but not THAT helpful. Palin might be a game-ending pick, but not in the way that you suggest. I know that you supported Clinton, NJ Moderate, and are a bit, shall I say bitter, towards Obama, but Palin very clearly doesn't seal the election for McCain. Hey, I'm an Obama supporter so I would welcome her as the choice, but McCain's campaign isn't that foolish.
There goes the "McCain was part of corrupt Washington" accusation. It will be interesting what Obama uses now, especially since the 7 houses thing most likely will lose its luster after the convention (or maybe not)
I find it so funny that the McCain camp is out with an ad already with Biden talking about experience. I guess this means they won't run with Romney because ethe treasure trove of nasty things those two said about each other would make ads that give from today until the election.
Then there is Pawlenty who also had very nice things to say about Barack Obama and his campaign. And he said them a couple of weeks ago not years ago as Biden said the line 'with or against' McCain.
I think there is an element of risk with Biden but it is worth it. I am very excited can;t wait to see the dynamic this afternoon.
And for those of you who don't think this is about Biden the Everyday Guy---look at where the two are campaigning for the next few days. That bus tour is about bringing the base home.
I got my text at 3 am and as someone said above--I was smitten all over again. As our friend Paris said. Loves it.
I agree strongly with the suggestion of Olympia Snowe - though it is probably too late to vet her. Snowe would be a perfect person to carry a message that McCain is a centrist, in touch with independents, etc. , rather than a Bush clone. She can bring women voters in, and, is very popular in a small enough state that she could put Maine in play (or possibly New Hampshire).
The base would hate her though - she is pro-choice (83% from NARAL, 0% from NRLC), and friendly to gay rights.
They are going to be a great team in the White House.
A few years ago both Biden and Obama came to Dallas for a Democratic rally. Obama was not yet a Senator. They both were fantastic speakers and the crowd loved them. I feel so lucky that I got to see them both in person!
Holy cow.
I woke up this morning feeling pretty good about Biden, but after reading these posts I'm really thrilled.
Why? Because our resident Goopers seem practically hysterical. Thye're not just snarky and sour, they're over-the-top, red-in-the-face, peeing-down-their-leg apeshit.
Again, why? Well, I muse... how would WE like it if we had to consider Biden ripping into our guy for the next 2 months?
Hee hee hee.
Biden is the kind of guy you'd MUCh rather have fighting on your side than on theirs.
This, boys and girls, is going to be fun.
"Cry havoc, and let slip teh dogs of war!"
I'd like to see how the HRC voters view this ticket, esp. since HRC was never even vetted. Secondly he definitely strengthens Obama's weakness on foreign policy, but he doesn't help him in a state like Ohio or Michigan where he is down and barely up respectively due to the economy.
I am one to think those states Hillary was popular in won't see a bounce, but other states like CO-VA-NV may see a bounce for Obama. I don't see OH-FL bouncing all that much because of the 1/4 of Democrats not having backed Obama yet! If they haven't after 2 months, what makes you think they will now???
Low Risk Pick. Good Debator... But I for the past 2-3 weeks have talked to a number of people that said the only sure way Obama wins is by picking Clinton, he picked Biden. This will be a BATTLE til November folks!
hosertohoosier said "First-off, the deficit is 2.5% of GDP - half the size of the deficit at the early 90's."
Your argument is complete BS because it was Clinton who paid down a substantial portion of the national debt. Could you imagine if we had another "fiscal conservative" rather than Clinton?
For all of his foibles, Clinton left office with a current account surplus and having paid down a material portion of the "national debt."
NJ_Moderate said...
"It would have been far better for Obama to pick someone with executive experience as that generally is the winning ticket. The Republicans seem relieved by the pick as Clinton/Warner/Gore would have been a game-ender."
NJ Moderate, you keep mentioning Warner as though he were an option. In fact, all signs and rumors are that Obama *would* have picked Warner if he could have. But look at Warner's actions... he could have run for the Democratic nomination and quite possibly won it, but chose not to run (your guess is as good as mine as to why; "family reasons" were stated).
Then he *promised* the Virginia voters that he would not be running for anything else than Senator from Virginia. And of course, taking him out of that election wouldn't help the Dems much in that Senate race.
As for Gore, I agree that could have been spectacular, though it also could have seemed too much like a backward glance. And who knows if Gore would have accepted.
As for Hillary, possible big upside, but tons of baggage. Can you *blame* Obama for not trusting those cretins after what happened in the primaries?
The Clintons were the best we could do in the 1990's, but let's move on. They are simply bad people. (And I say that as a lifelong Democrat, and a fairly moderate one too.)
sedi, another reader already pointed out that Olympia Snowe (though I like her a lot too) is a bit pro-choice for McCain to get away with picking her.
btw, here's a VP suggestion for McCain...
George Allen. He can call Obama "macaca." Would cause him trouble in the MSM, but would be a great way to rally the base.
I'm not even sure Snowe would take the job (Republican VP). No love lost there.
This is BIG for HRC, and I suspect that she worked hard for this pick. Kaine, Bayh, maybe even Sebelius would run in 2016 if Obama wins. But Biden would be 73. He's not going to run for President then.
This gives Hillary a real chance to run in 2016 as the front-runner. I absolutely think there is a tacit deal going on here: Hillary supports Obama in 2008, Obama supports Hillary in 2016. On the other hand, if Obama loses in 2008, there's no way in hell he (or his supporters) are going to help Hillary in 2012. Then Mark Warner or somebody similar gets the job.
And I intend to keep that deal. If Obama wins with Hillary's help, I'll hold my nose and vote for her in 2016. If she doesn't help him and he loses, I'll be supporting Anybody But Hillary in 2012.
Nate,
I disagree with your analysis on Clinton. On top of her mountain of negative attacks on Obama and the fact that Obama/Clinton would keep Clinton drama in the headlines until November, she likely would have hurt Obama in Virginia and Colorado, forcing him to concentrate his resources on Ohio and giving McCain a tighter firewall. There is also a possibility that Clinton's weakness in places like Oregon, Iowa, and Wisconsin would have opened up opportunities for McCain to go on the offensive.
Biden is the all-around smart choice. The benefit is marginal, but he does no harm and he is guaranteed to be resistant to Lieberman-Edwards Syndrome.
NJModerate is being silly.
First of all, Hillary Clinton has no executive experience. I'm not sure where he's getting that.
Second, Sarah Palin is currently caught up in a potentially career-ending abuse of power scandal, which is especially bad given the sorry state of Alaska's GOP. She most certainly would be a gamechanger: she'd end any hope that McCain has of winning.
The commentators and pundits are already calling the ticket "O'Biden."
How cool is that?
I mean, who would you rather be supporting? "McCain-Romney" (sounds like a clunky old car with big tailfins that your grandpa night drive) or the hip, cool, "O'Biden!"
Damn, I feel good today. There's a shiny new world a-comin'. I'm going to go hiking in the coulees and smile at the sunshine.
filistro--I am with you. and I love the monicker O'Biden.
Thanks for passing that on.
Obama/(C) Edwards: Kerry States + IA + COL + NM (Assuming Romney is picked and takes NV and OH (a more conservative state than MI and it's neighbor)
Obama/Biden: Kerry States + IA + OH (Assuming Lieberman or Ridge is chosen and takes FL)
I Prefer Chet Edwards.
"I woke up this morning feeling pretty good about Biden, but after reading these posts I'm really thrilled.
Why? Because our resident Goopers seem practically hysterical. Thye're not just snarky and sour, they're over-the-top, red-in-the-face, peeing-down-their-leg apeshit."
That's an interesting prism, Filistro. I was reading the same stuff and thinking the response was surprisingly mute and civilized, as it should be for a relatively mainstream choice. Beyond the to-be-expected partisan swats from the campaign camp, the Biden choice is a big yawn.
It looks to me like the real peeing-down-their-leg apeshit reaction here (to say nothing of hyper-snarky) is to the sheer speculation about "Mittens" as the Republican VP choice.
Lord knows what a hysterical jamboree it will be among the top-whites-of-their-eyes crowd once the Republican VP nominee is announced, whoever it might be.
Calibrate the relative reaction then.
I think he did the right thing. In fact, in many ways Biden was the only logical choice, once Clark was put out of the picture.
But, all of that namedropping, buildup and frenzy to announce that he picked.....Joe Biden?
The walls of the Obama Campaign Bubble must be soundproof or they would realize that they dragged this thing out two or three days too long, leading to speculation that he was going to make a more dramatic pick, when, in the end, he simply did what he had to do.
A- for the selection (solid choice, filling in the one big hole in Obama's resume, but he doesn't bring a State and Obama might need one by the time November 4th comes around).
C- for the process
Yesterday, I mentioned that the candidate whose strengths outweigh his own weaknesses would be the best pick. I thought that was Biden. The other caveat is the pick should cover the weaknesses of the Presidential nominee. Biden does that better than any of the other names. It will be a fine working partnership.
This is a site about understanding numbers and statistical analysis to the process. I loved JDK's post because it highlights where Obama's support has softened in the last three weeks and where it potentially has room to rebound. There is much to be said about the white ethnic, non-WASP vote. They are, in essence, the swing vote in most recent elections.
Fascinating how Romney has shot up by 22.5 on Intrade. Biden will eat him alive in the debates.
I was a fan of Sebelius and Schweitzer, but Biden is a great choice for winning the election.
It's not about the electoral map, which is already in Obama's favor. And it's only secondarily about demographics.
The only way McCain is likely to win is by getting a media narrative consistently in his favor. But Joe Biden is great at going on the attack and making Republicans look ridiculous.
Think back to the ancient days when Giuliani was the frontrunner for the Republican nomination. Like McCain, he had the media aura of the Unquestionable Hero. Giuliani ran a poor campaign, but the biggest nail might have been Biden's quip at the debate: "Noun, verb, 9/11". Those 2.5 words turned the Unquestionable Hero into a disgraced laughingstock, and opened the door for more critical views of him to appear in the media.
If Biden can do that a second time against McCain, then the election is nearly guaranteed.
I like the Biden pick a lot, if for no other reason than he's aggressive, and will call out the Republics' lies when they just make shit up.
Forget about Snowe-- the racist Republics are going to vote for a female Greek New Englander with no charisma... otherwise Dukakis would've been president 20 years ago.
Richardson was considered...
http://www.santafenewmexican.com/SantaFeNorthernNM/-Gracious--call-makes-it-official--No-VP-for-Richardson
Schweitzer's speech will be interesting to watch; he usually don't use a teleprompter.
Bayh was a smart choice. Most qualified and his strength as a Senate leader along with his years of expereince shows good judgment of Obama's part. Hillary as a pick would have been a sign of weaknesses and potentially would have brought a Trojan Horse into the campaign. The downside: lots of disgruntled HRC supporters.
The process also was overmanaged, in typical Obama fashion. The Biden pick can expect to generate something of a short term bounce among independents (not the PUMAs), but it will be arrested by the convention bounce itself.
I think Obama missed the chance to have two bounces. After Thursday we may all feel a little bit gorged at the buffet table.
BTW: Nice house(s) Biden owns!
On Palin and Experience: This can be managed fine. The amount of people who will withold their vote for McCain because his VP pick has limited experience will be smaller than those who are drawn to vote for McCain because of his VP pick.
Secondly, the experience issue can be spun with something like "Our VP candidate spent more days in her Governor's office than Obama spent in Senate chambers. And he's the guy running on the top of the ticket!"
FWIW, I've always liked listening to Biden. I used to hear him a lot on the Don Imus show when it played on a local station here. Is he still buddies with Imus or is that going away now since his new boss disapproves? That was a good forum for some candid chatter from pols, for sure.
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