Perhaps the most striking feature of Joe Biden's speech in Springfield today was his description of Obama as a "clear-eyed pragmatist who will get the job done". This is certainly different from the rather more abstract meaning of the Obama "CHANGE" brand as it was applied during the primary campaign. In fact, it sounds more along the lines of how Hillary Clinton was trying to present herself.
It's also a description, of course, that could reasonably be applied to Joe Biden. The selection of Biden represented the inevitable terminus of a route that Obama had chosen in the days immediately following the conclusion of Democratic primaries, one which was signified by his choice to accept public financing, and his decision to side with Nancy Pelosi in supporting the FISA compromise bill. Along the way, there have been other milestones, ranging from Obama's tepid endorsement of the Gang of 10 compromise to his decision to pay out so-called 'street money' during the general election campaign in cities like Philadelphia and Detroit.
To certain progressives, all of this has come as something of a disappointment. Obama's brand during the primaries was essentially an anti-establishment one, and that allowed him to beat the establishment choice of Hillary Clinton. It would surely have been a lot of fun to see how everything played out had Obama not compromised on FISA, not accepted public funding, and then had picked someone like Kathleen Sebelius as his running mate.
But in other ways, "clear-eyed pragmatist" is a more accurate reflection of the 'real' Obama, and certainly of the ways that he made his way through the Chicago system, as Ryan Lizza's seminal piece in the New Yorker concluded:Perhaps the greatest misconception about Barack Obama is that he is some sort of anti-establishment revolutionary. Rather, every stage of his political career has been marked by an eagerness to accommodate himself to existing institutions rather than tear them down or replace them. When he was a community organizer, he channelled his work through Chicago's churches, because they were the main bases of power on the South Side. He was an agnostic when he started, and the work led him to become a practicing Christian. At Harvard, he won the presidency of the Law Review by appealing to the conservatives on the selection panel. In Springfield, rather than challenge the Old Guard Democratic leaders, Obama built a mutually beneficial relationship with them. "You have the power to make a United States senator," he told Emil Jones in 2003. In his downtime, he played poker with lobbyists and Republican lawmakers. In Washington, he has been a cautious senator and, when he arrived, made a point of not defining himself as an opponent of the Iraq war.
And in other ways, the primaries version of the CHANGE brand was a poor match for the mood of the country. The most acute problem with George W. Bush is not that he's corrupt, not that he's the inevitable consequence of a broken system, but rather simply that his mode of thinking led him into an series of exceptionally poor decisions that left the country worse off. The problems of the Bush administration are not abstract -- they are highly tangible, made more manifest still by the deterioration in the economy that occurred over the first quarter of this year. What CHANGE means now is this:i) Not Bush, or someone who thinks like him;
This certainly isn't what CHANGE meant during the primaries. But it's a message that voters should have little trouble understanding. And now that the Obama campaign seems to understand it too, it should help them to provide a more focused and disciplined message.
ii) Working our way, by any means possible, out of the hole that Bush left us in.
8.23.2008
"Clear-Eyed Pragmatist": The Obama Brand Has Come Full-Circle
by Nate Silver @ 8:23 PM
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I consider myself a progressive and I think what Obama has done is OK. The whining progressives like the self serving David Sirota was on Fox talking down Obama-Biden, all the while proclaming they are just telling it like it is....LOL....right, Fox only has whining progressives on who will bash Dems,so he goes on... then Sirota can proclaim that the repubs are destroying our country, while he and his rhetoric are helping their cause.
I think "clear eyed pragmatist" was Obama's brand early in the primary process. It's what attracted me to him, certainly. If you think back to the earliest states, his appeal to independents and cross-over Republicans was a big part of the deal.
It would surely have been a lot of fun to see how everything played out had Obama not compromised on FISA, not accepted public funding, and then had picked someone like Kathleen Sebelius as his running mate.
I don't think it would be fun to see John McCain in the White House. The Dems can't win with just the "progressives"
Uh, he didn't accept public financing...
By now Obama's lost the plot. He's forgotten who he is and what he set out to do. Obama, after all the effort to 'find himself' (read his 'memoir', chaps) has gone and lost himself again in the mad dash for votes. Poor lad. Maybe if he had finished the primaries off quicker, he could have retained a shred of integrity. Maybe if he had won New Hampshire. Maybe if he had trained his eye on winnning Texas on March 4. It would have saved his supporters (as well as Hillary's, -including Hillary herself!-) a few dimes for the general election campaign and, even, celebratory doughnuts on Nov 5. It's the lack of killer instinct, as evidenced by his bowling as well as his performance in the primaries that has let him down. Shame 'cos he's 'likeable enough'.
I've been reading this site you went by Poblano and had the old logo, Nate, and I've got to say this is the first time I've disagreed with you on anything, ever (including PECOTA rankings). What exactly did "Change" mean during the primaries? Certainly it's more defined now, but I'm not sure that definition leads to dilution.
The way I always saw it, "Change" meant "having a radically different worldview- and domestic view- then the current administration". Perhaps the primary campaign was slightly Charlie Kane-esque, and now it's more on message, but once again I don't see "pragmatism" as clashing with "change". Rome wasn't built in a day, and complete a change of Washington won't come November 6th. I always felt that Obama has said that "change won't be easy, it'll take a while", although this part of the message way have been skipped over before.
And didn't Obama reject public financing?
Ryan's article was hardly seminal. I am quite surprised as an early attention to the campaign and who Obama is, according to those who wrote about him in earlier days, gave ample indication of Obama's centrist, pragmatic and reasonable tendencies. That he became a hero of progressives until FISA more or less was probably a complex amalgamation of factors including a sort of romanticism which I am quite sure Obama does not embrace,
Barack as President would be, I think, progressive tending, given what David Wilhelm called a 65 percent presidency -- the capacity to get things passed in Congress.
But that he is seen as a lapsed progressive now is a stretch. He is in comparison to McCain a reasonable alternative if you want cogent domestic policy and an end to neocon-influenced foreign policy. If a majority agrees, we win,
I could have sworn he rejected public financing.
Nate, Obama took a ton of heat for REJECTING public financing. Isn't that what you meant?
Obama, like all Presidents, will be exactly as good for we the people as we the people make him be. (The only modern exception I can think of is Lyndon Johnson who was in some ways unexpectedly good -- and fatally bad in relation to the time's key issue, yet another war.)
I am neither optimistic nor pessimistic.
"I can run for office with no talking points, no talking points..."
THAT is the Obama brand---the brand of a politician who, principally, happens to also be a decent human being.
The vague promises of "change" are pointless. Nothing good every happens. But sometimes good people come along and act decently---and Obama is one of them.
AP is ripping this pick, surprising for this biased associate press:
AP: Pick Shows Lack of Confidence
Like Nate was saying all the past 2 weeks on here bringing HRC on is the only way to sure the base, and according to an MSNBC poll, at least 3.8 million Dems, 21% of HRC voters, are backing McCain, with an addt. 27% undecided.. I bet many will now back McCain as they were waiting to see if Obama would pick Hillary, not the case.
"Clear eyed pragmatism" was always the change I thought Sen. Obama stood for. (Aside from the obvious "change = black president" aspect to the message). When did he ever promise ideological politics? His speech in opposition to the Iraq War, for example, was impressive and notable precisely because in it he denounced the kind of knee-jerk reactionary "progressivism" that automatically assumes a conservative president goes to war "for oil" and to enrich crony friends.
What change could be more compelling than a president who is "against dumb wars?" We've spent 16 years under rather wild presidencies. The Clinton administration was a centrist one, but didn't approach Sen. Obama's realism--it was a profoundly Liberal administration, particularly in its foreign policy. The Bush administration has been wildly ideological, and has pushed extraordinarily risky and costly policies in pursuit of unprecedented agendas like spreading democracy throughout the Arab world via invasion and occupation. Against the backdrop of the Clinton Administration's "Liberal crusade light" and the Bush Administration's "Liberal crusade hard," a pragmatic realist is a huge change.
Moreover, and perhaps even more importantly, both previous administrations were notable for serial lying masked under meaningless "truthy" folksy non-statements. I think it was the New York Magazine that named Sen. Obama's candidacy's most significant achievement as the "reuniting of presidential discourse with actual, visible thought." Honestly, that's huge change, and a rather "clear-eyed, pragmatic" one. That's a big part of why I've been interested in the change brand, anyway.
Continue to Spread the Word: Sure, some Hillary supporters will go from undecided (waiting on the VP choice) to McCain. But some of them will go from undecided to Obama. It's hard to tell a pollster you favor Obama over McCain when you're still hoping for Clinton as VP or a convention miracle! But once the convention is over, the undecideds will sort themselves out. My belief is that this will translate into an increased lead for Obama, even though both candidates will gain at the expense of undecideds.
We'll see...
Obama has taken a lot of heat for rejecting public financing. However, that decision is not final until he's officially the nominee.
So, it's possible for him to change his mind still. Did we miss a news story somewhere?
Also - @Continue - I See your AP link on the Biden pick being bad and Raise it with
Media Matters: The AP has a Ron Fournier problem
I would count myself among the progressives who were disappointed by Obama's shift to the center. I believe he would be doing better if he had stuck to his earlier positions rather that risk losing the enthusiasm of his most ardent grass roots supporters. And now his pick of Biden as his running mate further erodes that enthusiasm. I still am an Obama supporter, God help us if we get four more years of Republican rule, I just hope this "pragmatism" is the best strategy and it doesn't come back to bite us. I will be overwhelmingly disappointed if he loses because of it.
'Vertical possums': how's that for a rebranding?
It is pretty weird how Obama talks about Biden the same way Clinton talked about herself.
I always interpreted the "change" agenda as something that was pragmatic and adjustable to conditions. I think it was Lyndon Johnson who described politics as "the art of the possible." As Majority Leader, he sought to get bills -- what was possible through compromise or rough tactics, but always working with people across the aisle if that increased what was possible.
Thus, while I have no doubt about Obama's progressive credentials, his commitment to rule of law both at home and abroad, to universal health care, to racial and gender equality (and equity), his main critique of the present was that our leaders, by failing to achieve what was "possible" for the greater collective good, and by trying to maximize the control by a given party of faction (and serving the interests of their corporate and other benefactors and beneficiaries) was allowing the country to go to ruin.
So the "change" agenda means governing toward the middle, making "compromise" a good word not a sign of surrender, "talking to your enemies" both abroad and at home a good thing -- all of this was an effort to move away from the politics of the last 7 years. And the "change" agenda means you don't make a priori decisions about what to do first -- you do what is possible, but you do move ahead and tackle tough problems as well as the low-hanging fruit.
I am with those above who said that Obama has always been a pragmatist. It was what drew me to him. To me change never meant post partisanship or just progressiveness it meant getting out of the mess we are in. Habeas Corpus anyone? The fact that you have two constitutional law instructors on the ticket tells me all I need to know about the Change I Want and Can Believe In.
Change 'I 'want: doesn't sound like something 'we' can share, LATass.
I always thought Obama was a pragmatist, and the Change he represented was a move away from Ideologs with their myopic vision.
Remember - It's "Change you can believe in." With Biden on the ticket, more of the older folk will believe.
Great now that my point is amply proven by that response---I guess for those that do not care about how our constitution has been misinterpreted in terms of executive privilege and do not want to return to checks and balances or separation of powers change would be a pretty bad thing and would naturally choose McCain as the option of more of the same. For those of us who see what a dangerous disaster that has been Obama-Biden is exactly the change we need and seek.
I think Biden is fine, although I do find it interesting that we have gone from very few Senators in our Presidential races to three in one election.
I love this website, but there is one thing that as a person who took statistics in college is driving me nuts. Why do you post the mean instead of the median? A median number makes far more sense, since it cannot be effected by outliers, and of course the most important thing is who wins, not by how much. At least post both, maybe? (You do post the winning percentage, but then you might end up with a situation where in an even tighter race, say McCain ends up with a majority of wins and is shy of the 270 in the mean, which would cause confusion.
Thanks for the clear headed and astute analysis Nate. I could have done without the overarching "I'm SO much smarter than all you" tone in Lizza's New Yorker piece but the main points apply here well enough.
As others have noted I think you might want to revisit par's 2 & 3 replacing the word "accepted" with either of "refused" or "rejected". Either that or were you just preparing to scoop the planet with breaking news that Senator Obama will after all accept the $84 million in public funding for the general?
Barack was never a standard bearer of the "left" per se, he is progressive and has some new ways of thinking. The last two terms and even some of the years before set a very low bar.
It matters most how willing we are to hold the politicians feet to the fire once they are in office.
We have that to look forward to.
"What CHANGE means now is this:
i) Not Bush, or someone who thinks like him;
ii) Working our way, by any means possible, out of the hole that Bush left us in.
This certainly isn't what CHANGE meant during the primaries."
What did CHANGE mean back then? I know there was a lot of talk in early speeches about being the change you seek, changing the world, fixing a broken system, getting past the politics of culture warfare, etc etc etc, but I never took any of it seriously. The President's just one politician in a sea of them - the most influential, of course, but still just one - he can't change the tone of politics or fix "the system" on his own. It's virtually impossible to even run an honest, positive campaign these days. The other side attacks and you have to attack back. I'm sure two years ago Obama didn't imagine that he'd be paying for ads that attack his opponent for owning too many houses and insinuate that he's senile, but that's what happens.
Like others - I find the notion that Obama was ever anything other than what he is quite a reach. That progressives latched on to him was purely a factor of him WINNING, and their favorites losing... and him NOT being Clinton, which was a known anti-progressive quantity. But Obama is more centrist than Clinton in many ways. His progressivism is in the shape of government - not necessarily the policies. If his campaign succeeds in creating more avenues of access for the American people to engage their government - he will have succeeded in ushering in change we can believe in.
For that matter - what kind of change CAN we believe in, but the kind where WE can effectuate it? The government that giveth can also taketh away - that's not change we can believe in, no matter how much progressives want to create it.
To the poster who called out David Sirota - he seems like a nice guy - but I agree. He and his cohorts of the perpetually unhappy make a career of ragging on those who are not ideologically pure - and are part of the reason for drag in the democratic base.
And before anyone says that the ad doesn't insinuate senility, the ad says that McCain "couldn't remember" how many houses he owned, implying he knew and forgot. In reality, he probably never knew. His wife's worth $100 million, they own anywhere from eight to a dozen homes depending on how you count - how is he supposed to keep track of her holdings?
Some other posters have hit on it, but what exactly did CHANGE mean in the first place? I saw it as two things:
1- About face on policies, same as all the other Democratic candidates.
2- Transparency
I saw pragmatism floating between those two points from the very beginning. Part of the change was not to be so ideological. No Axis of Evil black and white foreign policy, for example. His stated willingness to meet with dictators and our enemies was all about being practical, and emblematic of his change message.
Good grief, Biden and Obama? Someone call the networks and tell them they're gonna have to clear out their entire schedule for debate nights with these windbags.
In response to -tray: In all due respect we are talking about residences in which Senator McCain LIVES even though part time and neglecting the 1$ Million parking lot and the combined condo's in Phoenix. These are NOT some convoluted structured investment instruments. In listening to his answer to the Politico question I'm honestly not sure what disturbs me more: 1) the idea that he couldn't at least give a ballpark count of his main residences out of their sheer number; or 2) He was genuinely confused about something almost anyone remotely connected to the lives of ordinary people could answer easily regardless of age or wealth.
Wow. How can you not pay attention like that? The change in America was from one divided into Red and Blue to one United States, that he would go across the aisle and work with the Republicans.
2004 Keynote Speech:
"Yet even as we speak, there are those who are preparing to divide us, the spin masters and negative ad peddlers who embrace the politics of anything goes. Well, I say to them tonight, there's not a liberal America and a conservative America - there's the United States of America. There's not a black America and white America and Latino America and Asian America; there's the United States of America. The pundits like to slice-and-dice our country into Red States and Blue States; Red States for Republicans, Blue States for Democrats. But I've got news for them, too. We worship an awesome God in the Blue States, and we don't like federal agents poking around our libraries in the Red States. We coach Little League in the Blue States and have gay friends in the Red States. There are patriots who opposed the war in Iraq and patriots who supported it. We are one people, all of us pledging allegiance to the stars and stripes, all of us defending the United States of America.
In the end, that's what this election is about."
I mean, do you hear this stuff and think he's speaking in code? His entire political career has always been about bringing all of America together. How could he do that from the left wing?
Seriously, why is this news to people? It's like you love his speeches but you don't actually listen to them!
To me "Change" meant many things to many people, as Obama called himself a "vessel" for our collective hopes and dreams. In essence it is a bottom up government that really contrasts with all modern Republican and Democrat themes.
Anyway, that's just me, as I tend to refrain from "knee-jerking" my way through life and politics when this country has serious problems to solve.
Add to my 9:22 post: As case in point, does anyone believe Warren Buffet (@78 years old next Saturday 30 August) both older and far wealthier would have had any trouble answering that question?
In contrast to the "pragmatist":
POW Card played AGAIN tonite - in interview w/ Katie Couric answering a question on the "house" issue"
“I am grateful for the fact that I have a wonderful life,” McCain said. “I spent some years without a kitchen table, without a chair, and I know what it's like to be blessed by the opportunities of this great nation. .."
I've always like the branding of Portland, Oregon: "The City That Works."
That should be the Democratic message going into the fall: "A Government That Works."
John Nail--you just made me want to throw up with that quote. God.
Also, John McCain was a POW -- did you guys know that?
The McCain campaign has always been terrified that Obama woudl become... or more accurately "be revealed as"... a clear-eyed pragmatist. They all recognize the danger to their carefully-constructed empire that comes from a new kind of politician who really wants to CHANGE things.
As somebody pointed out, Obama doesn't want to be the leader only of the far left, or even the moderate left. Read his books. Listen to his speeches. He genuinely wants to lead and change the nation... all of it.
It's a Big Notion. Sometimes they work.
This is where the "houses" gaffe becomes so important. The Republicans and the McCain campaign, recognizing the huge danger inherent in Obama's message, decided some time time ago to bypass Clinton's "inexperience" meme and go instead for the "elitist, vapid celebrity" label. They built their campaign around this line of attack with millions of dollars in ads and a whole scripted rollout of the unified message through the convention and beyond. It was a massive, co-ordinated effort involving all the surrogates, all the ad agencies, all the creative talent.... and a boatload of money.
And then, in one careless little midweek Q & A, McCain destroyed the whole effort. Because you can hardly paint your opponent as "elitist" if you don't know how many houses you own.
Now they're scurrying around like cockroaches in a sudden blast of sunlight. Their campaign is destroyed. They got nuthin'. It's over.
I for one am a BIG fan of clear-eyed pragmatism. Who wouldn't be?
Okay this is off topic but could someone ple answer this. What the hell is going on at rasmussen website? Why in the world does he have McCain's attack ad on Biden on the front page of his site? What has that got anything to do with polling or analysis on poling? I have liked the rasmussen state polls and consider them to be far more superior then the fickle SUSA polls but why would rasmussen undermine his credibility as a pollster over a lame ad? A pollster has to atleast project an aura of impartiality. This kind of blatant partisanship surely can't be good for business.
Sorry for my woeful ignorance but I'm only a young person. What's "clear-eyed pragmatism"?
James... it's somebody who sees what has to be done in order to get things done... and does it.
Now go to bed, it's late. And don't forget to brush your teeth.
Ha you're hilarious filistro but thanks. Frankly, it seems to me that Obama doesn't really mention a whole lot of specifics when saying what needs to be done (Change, hope). I suppose in his head he has a clear vision of what he wants to do, but he hasn't shared the whole thing with us. Mainly he just says we can't afford more of the same
And actually it's only about 8:30 here on the West coast.
Barack Obama has clearly sewn up the Biden wing of the Democratic Party.
What that represents is not entirely clear. The MSN seems to want to anoint him as a working class hero, a man who has lived through adversity and now has a son going to Iraq. He is painted as man of great experience, more than 30 years in the Senate.
Much of this, except for the political longevity seems new to me. Joe Biden has been on the national scene since at least his failed run for the Presidency in 1988. He garnered a handful of votes this year, his campaign being most notable for commenting on Obama’s hygiene and lack of experience.
I suppose a man who is largely unknown will get to define himself and if he wants to he can cast himself as working class hero. But it rings a bit tinny for this Senator with decade’s long service in the Senate with his principal focus being foreign affairs all of a sudden picking up the cause of the common man.
Biden adds little to the ticket geographically. Delaware is a safe state and if this guy can help in PA well, good, but if that’s the margin of victory then Obama has more problems than it appears.
There is nothing intrinsically exciting about Biden and this may be why he garnered only about 250,000 votes out of 37 million cast.
I had wanted to say he was the Dick Gephardt of the new millennium, but that’s unfair to Gephardt.
It is unfair to to make too much of the VP choice, and in truth Obama made a decent choice in a bad situation. Biden is smart and a highly respected politician, a statesman of sorts. He also is not shy on the attack. All of these qualities will stand him in good stead.
It remains debatable about whether the pick satisfied the cardinal rule: don’t hurt yourself with your pick.
Let’s start with Obama’s biggest problem: Hillary Clinton. Obama cleverly has pushed Mrs. C off the stage for the moment. With her roll call, and the family speeches she had threatened to take over the convention and by delaying his pick until Saturday at 3 AM (!). Obama was able to dominate the news cycle until today and will do so through Monday, at least, so he got a short term advantage.
But Obama has done nothing to stem his long term damage.
The PUMAs are furious over the way Hil was treated in the process. It has become clear that she was not even vetted at the end. She was passed over for a man whom she outpaced in the primaries by a factor of over 75 to 1. A man who is supposed to do for Obama what everyone believes she herself could do. Nail down blue collar white votes in places like PA and OH. Something she had done handily long after Biden left the race.
Many will dismiss these PUMAs a Republican figment, but the pundits are on the air talking about it. Susan Estrich just said on Fox that her email is “buzzing with anger” over the way Hillary was treated. And the McCain campaign has already put up an ad criticizing Obama for passing her over. That sounds like a political first. Got to websites like “Hillary is 44” and you get a picture of dissatisfied voters willing to vote for McCain, if only to punish Obama and the establishment that they feel unfairly turned them aside. There is no fury like a woman scorned!
Many of you have heard the PUMA leaders on various media outlets proclaiming their disaffection. There is no doubt that Hillary and most likely Bill will be gracious at the convention, but they know their supporters will understand the code under which they are living and will carry the water for them independent of anything that the former first couple says.
The next problem: The VP pick is supposed to fill out the top dog’s weaknesses. Sometimes this is electoral, sometimes it demographic or personality. Here it is experiential. What the Biden pick shows is that Obama felt the heat of his inexperience, particularly on the foreign policy front and by picking Biden he filled in that gap, but also highlighted it.
Opponents snipe at each other all time, but Biden went to the jugular attacking Obama on his seminal weakness, lack of experience.
Finally, if you listened to the speeches today from Springfield there wasn’t a lot of hope and change. We got a clear signal that Obama is abandoning that theme.
First he choose anti-change with the consummate Washington Insider in Biden and then both he and his running mate went to a populist theme of going after the working class and the gripes of the little people against the entrenched interests. There is no change there, no post-partisanship, no reaching across the aisle and finding common found in that. Populism has been the message of the Democratic Party since FDR. Ain't nothing new in that.
If Springfield was any evidence of where the Obama campaign is heading I say it is heading for a big “ho hum”. The bloom is off the rose. I don’t think Biden cements a thing with the true believers; as Hillary might have given them hope for victory. Now it remains a slog.
If McCain is smart he will avoid the trap that Biden represents. To go for the attack dog, the big debater. He needs to use his pick more epically, more tonally.
Romey will be looked on as the safe choice, but he brings demographic weakness with evangelicals. And give life to the seven to eleven house gaffe. Pawlenty is the sentimental choice and will bring youth and freshness and his own heartland populist appeal to the Sam’s Club voters. Ridge and Liebermann’s trial balloons sunk like lead.
I continue to come back to Rob Portman, the telegenic family man from Cincinnati whose quiet authority and laser like intelligence will assure that he will hold his own in any conversation. His coming from Ohio will help and draw the contrast with Biden as the Eastern pick. His stones in the budget and trade and economic matters generally will stand him in good stead.
That Portman is a former official of the Bush Administration is his only problem. But I wonder how much this guilt by association goes. Portman survived his stint in Washington with his reputation enhanced. He is likely to get a media honeymoon. His personal likeability assures that. In truth the Republicans do not lack for attack dogs against Barack Obama. Besides he is better attacked abstractly through the media rather than directly, personally.
McCain has the chance to go for a game changer and a dark horse who the media will be forced to cover and discover, it should be good for substantial coverage right through and passed the convention.
Nate seems to want to hang this campaign on running against Bush and presented a contrast against Bush. I think that misses the trajectory by just enough to spin him out of orbit. Bush failed because he mismanaged Iraq, and because his mismanaged the budget (query is Portman to blame or did he leave b.c he was not listened to), as the housing crisis flared up and gas soared he became the bogey man in whom all bad things were projected. Its’ a lot to ask of a man and a lot to ask that all that enmity - -if it holds upon – be transferred to McCain.
McCain-Portman ‘08
********
The Gaffes have begun:
Obama: “the next PRESIDENT of the United States . . . “
Biden: “Barack America”
A bit self-conscious aren’t we?
"Change" means:
1) Not W Bush
2) Not hyper-partisan,
but getting things done
"across the aisle"--Obama's
great gift, acc. to Biden.
(& Hllary's Waterloo--see
HealthCare 1993).
3) Not in the Lobbyists' pockets.
That's consistent with clear-eyed
pragmatism. Just ask another "Change" president who
was pragmatic, bipartisan & not
for sale--A. Lincoln.
"Change" means:
1) Not W Bush
2) Not hyper-partisan,
but getting things done
"across the aisle"--Obama's
great gift, acc. to Biden.
(& Hllary's Waterloo--see
HealthCare 1993).
3) Not in the Lobbyists' pockets.
That's consistent with clear-eyed
pragmatism. Just ask another "Change" president who
was pragmatic, bipartisan & not
for sale--A. Lincoln.
Jim,
First of all, no one is George W. Bush. No matter how much you might like to tie McCain to Bush, their personalities and policies are different. Second of all, other than his work with Senator Coburn, what evidence of bipartisanship has Senator Obama shown? Senator McCain has consistently worked with Democrats (Senators Feingold, Kennedy, and Lieberman to name the well known ones. And finally, both candidates have fought lobbyists, Obama with his ethics reform and McCain by his utter refusal since the Keating incident to take any earmarks or give in to lobbyists. Granted his campaign advisors are lobbyists, but these people were his friends first and lobbyists second.
I guess there's no filibuster rule here; people can do a document dump, even post the Yellow Pages or the Bible here if they wish. But who's gonna read it? Oh well.
James, McCain's campaign is run almost entirely by and for lobbyists.
Check out http://www.mccainslobbyists.com/ to see some of the facts and figures.
Pete, you still don't get it. The biggest danger to Obama was never from the Hillary voters. It was from McCain's devastating "out-of-touch- elistist" label. The Paris and Britney ads were just the beginning, a bit of summer silliness. The really deadly "celebrity" attacks were set to begin during the convention, probably starting with the giant rally at Invesco field.
Now it's all dead and gone, mostly because of the "houses" gaffe and also because of the ticket. Does Obama-Biden really look like a vapid, effete, elitist ticket to you? Can a guy with a dozen houses say that now with a straight face?
I get a kick out of some of the surrogates who are still using the "elitist" theme in their tatcaks. Leslie Sanchez on CNN just talked about "people who are wary of all the elitism and celebrity surrounding the Obama campaign..."
It's sad, really. Poor schmucks. Their talking points have been overtaken by reality and nobody's given them any new ones, so they just keep parroting the old stuff... like a lonely television set left on in an abandoned building.
Rebut my first two claims then. I realize that McCain has lobbyists in high positions in his campaign. But these lobbyists are not actually lobbying him. What I mean to say is that these lobbyists are not in the capacity of lobbyists on his campaign. They're advisors. It would be different if he were meeting with Capitol Hill lobbyists and then lobbying for them.
James--have you even read the Obama economic plan? Or his energy plan? You want details there is lots. McCain on his site which I visit to see where the details are since he changes everything on the stump every other day has nothing. Want to talk about details. Let's do that. If you read those two and think there are no details then we can talk.
LAT,
I agree that Obama has details (energy tax credit, renewables). What I mean to say is that his main campaign message and the message he consistently hammers home is simply change.
Obama realizes he's in a dog fight and is trying to turn this election into a fight for the middle class. I'm sure the young liberal idealists are not thrilled about Biden as he isn't "Change you can believe in." However Biden brings a lot. He's as close to Hillary as Obama could get without bringing her. Biden helps:
1. Catholic swing vote, especially in Pennsylvania. That state is not in play now regardless of what McCain does.
2. Foreign Policy chops. Every time McCain charges Obama as naive, Biden will be there to fight back.
3. Attack dog. Biden has no problem attacking McCain, his character, and his values. Nobody will question Biden's patriotism.
4. Biden is a working class hero. He's the poorest guy in the senate, takes the train home every night, and speaks their language.
Yes, he's not exactly change, and he can run his mouth, but he will be intensely loyal and be willing to do what it takes to win. You can't change America or the world, unless you win first. Biden, a very pragmatic choice.
From Debra Saunders of the San Fran Communist I mean Chronicle:
"Alas, he also is a statesman with a gift for putting his foot in his mouth in his own backyard. Like the time he quipped that you can't work in a 7-Eleven unless you have an Indian accent. Or when he said Obama is "the first mainstream African American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy."
The Hill fans are pissed. Of course you have to love the great AA canidate selecting a racist as a running mate. I love you Dems...
I don't think supporters of John "I hate the gooks" McCain are really in a position to criticize racism.
Owinng possesions does not amke you an eltiist and gettin trapped up over a perosanl question that raised issues concerning rhe investmenr properties your wife might own doesn't make you an eltist either.
Elitism goes to character and Obama comes from the Ivory tower tradion of looking down on his inferiors adn betrays a desire to substitue his judgment for theirs.
That's the kind of eltism that will stick.
What you are talking about is class warfare and that ain;t new poltics or change as far as I am concerned.
What I mean to say is that his main campaign message and the message he consistently hammers home is simply change.
James only for the low information voter. His website has detailed policy points, he has townhalls with videostreams several times a day. The problem is the MSM will only report the silly things, "How many homes does Obama have", "Obama is a celebrity" and the like.
But then who depends on the MSM for their news anymore if they are truly interested in news?
Nice job of covering your real tracks, bjb1968:
Debra Saunders is in the S.F. Chronicle as token conservative columnist. She hasn't had a good thing to say about Obama all year.
PETE
working overtime on those concern troll posts, I see.
time to return to Bizarro World
hey lil BJ 1968,
if you think that your Biden quote taken out of context proves he is racist, then you are a clueless or worse...
It is a mangled complement, even if inartful in a few words used as strung together. Perhaps you have never met a complement, BJ ?
besides, my friend, John McCain calls people "gooks" & other nasty racist ephitets plus he angrily yelled at his long suffering wife in public & called her a "c#*t" [as in rhymes with bunt].
I guess you are the one who likes his own special brand of racist misogynists...
but thanks for your concern that Obama has a problem with O'Biden.
MuleHead has a pet name for you...
I suppose you're probably right bob, but his message toward ordinary people (who I guess you classify as "low-information voters") will see nothing except "Change" and "Hope" and "No more George Bush".
To quote Senator Obama, bjb1968...
"is that all you got?"
John Sydney McCain hates gooks. Let's call it a draw.
Oh and if you want to get into 1988 and the Biden missteps then, well I guess 20 years ago there was a little S&L dustup that the McCain camp may not want to revisit.
Oh yeah, and Petey, elitism is defined by the puncitocracy which has decided to pick up the Obama side of this issue. There is no objective definition. Perception is reality.
The smartest play about choosing Biden is that he is irrationally loved by the chattering class.
Talk about going after McCain's base.
McCain abdicated his media throne by embracing Bush (literally... LOL) and Obama chose McMansions successor for VP.
Even Rove on Fox today could only throw out bjb's talking points and then admitted in no uncertain terms Biden was a strong choice.
Nate, Obama REJECTED public financing -- he did not accept it.
Like all Chicago pols, Barack will do what it takes to win.
Like all Chicago pols, Barack will do what it takes to win.
-----------
And MrInsight22, McCain won't? Pols are pols, be they from Arizona or Illinois, I guess.
Re: elitism.
In the new McCain ad that will run in battlegrounds during the convention period, Biden says in a debate that Barack is not ready to be President.
The key subliminal part of the ad is this: While Biden is speaking, there are two camera shots of Obama in his "snobama" elitist demeanor with his chin up and looking down his nose. Check it out on YouTube and you'll see what I mean.
Hillary and Gore would have been gamechangers. Of the non-gamechangers, Biden was probably the best pick overall, though Bayh and Jack Reed were also decent choices.
I just saw one of PETE the PARROT [Kent]'s spam posts word for word on another blog.
Yeah, the looooooonnnnnggggg post on "The Biden Wing of the Democratic Party"
so pathetic Petey. then he tries to disguise it with other short concern posts.
I am sure he earned his McShame spammer bonus points today since he was posting overtime all over the net.
go back to Bizarro World, Pete the Spammer
James, well any suggestions how how to get more information out there if the MSM refuses to dwell on serious policy positions in their coverage? I mean McCain doesn't seem to have any actual policies either other than 'Obama is scary' as far as the MSM is concerned...
Well Bob you're wrong there's "drill here, drll now" lol. But yeah you're right the media likes to concentrate on attack ads and not actual substance.
James -- If you unquestioningly believe every word McCain says about his dealings with lobbyists, then yes, you can believe that the ones that were working as lobbyists while advising his campaign, who only took "leaves of absence" after there started being press reports about it, are only advising him as friends and their work has no influence on their advice to him. Policy advice in numerous areas that is still part of his campaign positions was written for him by these lobbyists while they were still working for their lobbying firms.
His claim that he has never made any earmarks is simply a lie -- look it up. He's counting on people like you not to check him on it.
His senior advisor Charlie Black told reporters that he was making lobbying calls from the so-called "Straight Talk Express". His foreign policy advisor Randy Scheunemann was a registered foreign agent at the same time he was advising McCain, and though he is now "on leave," he is still owner of a lobbying firm which has one other lobbyist and is being paid hundreds of thousands of dollars by foreign governments (can you imagine any Democrat being let off the hook for that?) And those are just the most egregious examples.
If you're willing to believe that these are all "just friends," and their work and who's paying them has no influence on the advice they give him, that's your right, but I think most people would look at these facts and ask "if you wanted solid, unbiased advice on what's good for the American people, couldn't you find anyone to ask other than people who are paid to advocate for other interests, including foreign countries?"
Typical Republican Pundit Phrases.
1)9-11 changed every thing.
2)Terrorist!!!!!!
3)The Surge is working
4)We need more Troops
5)I support General Petraus
6)He will raise your Taxes.
7)Let us Drill.
I am laughing my ass off at all the republiClown Concern trolls coming in trying to scare us with fairy tales about "PUMAs ruining obama's bid" and "biden said something racist maybe"
Sorry you tools, as much as you and the rightwing blowhards might want to think it, the PUMAs have always been a very small minority of undecided female dems (as seen by their "convention"), and any losses obama suffers from them will be easily offset by a gain of independents who will be attracted to an Obama ticket that doesn't have HC on it.
Please, PLEASE bring up the issue of possible racist statements. I would LOVE to see mccain's "I hate gooks" comments come back to the narrative. You really think the ticket running an AA should be worried about losing over-sensitive-PC-voters?
PS: The biden pick officially puts the last nail into the coffin for the "obama is an elitist!!" republiClown talking point, by the way. I hope mccain tries to use it again, though. It will be nice hearing a few days worth of soundbytes of Biden talking about the hypocrisy of a guy who can't even keep track of his houses, calling the guy who only recently paid off his student loans & the senator who goes home to DE every night, "elitist". Especially if the Mormon is picked. I can already see "they can't even count the number of homes they have on all their hands!" narrative making headway in OH and PA (which is now out of play for the RePubs)
Wow I have a lot of rebuttals Quasimoto. However I don't believe you're worth it. All Ill say is: didn't 9/11 change everything?
JAMES
as O'Biden would say to you:
"noun, verb, 9/11"
and that sad sack McCain campaign tried to use a bogus anthrax security scare last week.
even the police thought the report was 'chicken little' lame...
maybe his buddy Bush will schedule an invasion or Red Alert in October
According to FactCheck.org: "Citizens Against Government Waste analyzed bills passed for FY2008 and found no earmarks requested by John McCain." Furthermore, "But there have been three times in the past, in 1992, 2003, 2006, when McCain may have requested, or been influential in securing, an earmark. No definitive evidence was ever found". Even if these three are true, 3 earmarks in all his years in the Senate is not much. How many has Barack Obama requested?
Several of my best friends are Hillary diehards. During the primary season they came to the conclusion that the only change Obama had ever been interested in was changing his job title upward. Ambition for ambition's sake, nothing more. So they are not the least bit surprised at Obama's endless, amorphous rebranding.
And I doubt seriously they will ever come over to Barack, since their objection to his candidacy has been, almost from the beginning, in their view a matter of his existential character defect.
DCM, you should be ashamed of yourself. I am not trying to exploit 9/11 politically or otherwise. It was the greatest tragedy to ever happen to our country and you feel fit to dismiss that it changed everything? You disgust me.
James-
I was mocking the Republican pundits. Whenever I hear republican speak- I hear 9-11,terrorist,the surge. Obama is the most liberal Biden is the 3rd most liberal . Last time Kerry was the most liberal. edwards was the 5th most liberal.
If Hillary been select- Republicans will say according to National Journal Hillary is the 5th most Liberal Democrat in the Senate.
I love this blog. Just thought I would point out an error, that it is not true that Obama accepted public funding, the opposite is true.
JAMES,
you are one sicko punk.
YOU are the one trying to use 9/11, which is a real travesty in trying to use a tragedy for political gain.
But seriously, 9/11 the worst tragedy for this country ?
get a grip on reality.
Try WWI or WWII [including Pearl Harbor alone] - not to mentio the Civil War when the deaths were in the hundreds of thousands and ripped the country apart.
9/11 was tragic, but you a pathetic.
Next you will claim I was mean to a POW...
be gone, troll
To everyone who saying that Nate made a mistake in relation to the public funding point - I'm fairly certain it was not a mistake. If he had "not compromised on FISA" and then "picked someone like Kathleen Sebelius", then the decision not to accept public funding would have fitted into the notion of "change" and being an outsider, rather than seeming more like a backflip.
No, that second paragraph in Nate's post is describing actual events (like supporting FISA). It's rather clear that Nate meant "not to accept public financing."
Like all Chicago pols, Barack will do what it takes to win.
I sure as f*** hope so. I am tired of the sainthood act. If Obama is a "Chicago politician," he sure hasn't been a very good example of one so far. Come on, Barack, I want to see someone's guts on the floor. Make the Republicans afraid of you.
I doubt seriously they will ever come over to Barack, since their objection to his candidacy has been, almost from the beginning, in their view a matter of his existential character defect.
Ask your pro-Clinton friends if they want Roe v Wade overturned. Whenever I see one of these scorned women banging on about Hillary's loss, I have to wonder what the hell they're thinking. Most of them are Republicans posing as Democrats, but some are just confused. It's Obama's job to unconfuse them, because I'm not sure Hillary's going to be of much help.
Biden is a working class hero. He's the poorest guy in the senate, takes the train home every night, and speaks their language.
He doesn't come across that way, and image is everything. He comes across as rather patrician.
I get a kick out of some of the surrogates who are still using the "elitist" theme in their tatcaks. Leslie Sanchez on CNN just talked about "people who are wary of all the elitism and celebrity surrounding the Obama campaign..."
Why shouldn't they keep calling Obama an elitist? That "seven houses" story lasted for one day. Unless Obama keeps pounding on it, the story will vanish. And you know what? I'm not sure he'll keep pounding on it.
I'd like him to, but Obama has a whole lot of John Kerry in him. He doesn't seem to want to fight. As for Biden, I don't know what people are talking about with this fighter stuff. Maybe he turns a neat phrase for the insider crowd, but he's never impressed me as a political knife fighter.
Many will dismiss these PUMAs a Republican figment, but the pundits are on the air talking about it. Susan Estrich just said on Fox that her email is “buzzing with anger” over the way Hillary was treated. And the McCain campaign has already put up an ad criticizing Obama for passing her over. That sounds like a political first. Got to websites like “Hillary is 44” and you get a picture of dissatisfied voters willing to vote for McCain, if only to punish Obama and the establishment that they feel unfairly turned them aside. There is no fury like a woman scorned!
It's a big country out there, so you'll always have some people doing odd things. But those "PUMAs" who weren't Republicans to begin with are going to come home when they realize that a McCain presidency means the end of Roe v Wade.
I continue to come back to Rob Portman, the telegenic family man from Cincinnati whose quiet authority and laser like intelligence will assure that he will hold his own in any conversation. His coming from Ohio will help and draw the contrast with Biden as the Eastern pick. His stones in the budget and trade and economic matters generally will stand him in good stead.
I wish McCain would listen to you and name someone who would cause people to scratch their heads and say, "Who the hell is that?" but unfortunately I don't think McCain's people are that dumb. Darn it.
James said "Rebut my first two claims then. I realize that McCain has lobbyists in high positions in his campaign. But these lobbyists are not actually lobbying him. What I mean to say is that these lobbyists are not in the capacity of lobbyists on his campaign. They're advisors. It would be different if he were meeting with Capitol Hill lobbyists and then lobbying for them."
James- I wouldn't care if the lobbyists were lobbying him. The problem is that the lobbyists are actually helping write his policy. That's FAR worse. McCain's economic policy is heavily influenced by Phil Gramm, lobbyist and Vice Chairman of UBS, one of the worst actors in the Mortgage crisis. McCain's Georgia policy is heavily influenced by Randy Scheunemann, whose company has recieved more than $730,000 since 2001 including $200,000 this year alone. Considering how serious that situation is (the phrase "world war three" has been mentioned repeatedly), doesn't it seem reasonable to expect that the people formulating our nations response should not be on the payroll of one of the countries involved?
"Elitism goes to character and Obama comes from the Ivory tower tradion (sic) of looking down on his inferiors adn (sic) betrays a desire to substitue (sic) his judgment for theirs."
- PeteKent
Hey, Pete, newsflash! It's a GOOD thing to substitute superior judgment for inferior. Society IMPROVES when we exchange bigotry for humanism, ignorance for maturity. Culture evolves when its leaders LEAD, pointing to higher values and wiser themes.
99.99% of the world is scum---unabated scum. You are scum. I am scum. McCain is FUCKING scum.
Obama, however, isn't scum. He's a decent human being. Now stop your self-righteous slobbering, uncross your eyes, and act your age for goddamn once.
I´ve always thought Obama was a pragmatist - his health care plan is much more realistic to get through Congress than Clinton´s one. People also forget that Obama´s greatest strength is his organisation skill, very technocratic, very pragmatic.
I still believe that he is a very progressive politician. Rejecting public financing was always the right thing to do in my opinion, not just because it would be more beneficial, but also because his donations were purely voluntary, by the people, so to say. The FISA bill was a bit dangerous, but he is a law professor, of course he wanted to have a legal foundation to deal with "surveillance" companies. If there was a Guantanamo-bill that would provide strict standards and legal framework to outlaw torture without shutting it down, I guess Obama would support that, too - the contrast would be the law-free space that we have now...
In Sebelius´ defense, she is also rather ideology-blind... but in the end the rust-belt was probably more important than the mid-west, and foreign policy experience was the best way to attack John McCain.
James: "9/11 was the greatest tragedy to ever happen to our country..."
Aren't you overlooking the Civil War? That resulted in over 200,000 American soldiers killed in action, and more than 600,000 total dead. Even if you arbitrarily limit yourself to single-day tragedies, 9/17 (1862) was worse than 9/11. That was the date of the battle of Antietam, which left approximately 23,000 American casualties, including 3,654 battlefield dead.
Do you define "tragedy" to include only civilian deaths? Well, then, the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918 killed an estimated 500,000 Americans, including 195,000 in the peak month of October. 9/11 caused almost 3,000 American deaths in all; in October 1918, American flu deaths averaged more than 3,000 per day.
Since the U.S. population was much less in 1918 (and much less still in 1862) than in 2001, obviously the impacts of those earlier tragedies were that much more intensely felt than 9/11.
In that context, let me bring up one other American tragedy that arguably exceeds 9/11: The Cherokee Trail of Tears of 1838 led to the death of about 4,000 Cherokees -- almost one quarter of the approximately 17,000 Cherokees rounded up and interned by Georgian state troops.
By remembering these other historic American tragedies, I don't intend to demean or minimize the very real tragedy of the 3,000 American lives lost in 9/11.
-----
James, your main point is that this tragedy, 9/11, "changed everything". Now, obviously this is not literally true. I will not try to make a comprehensive list of the things that 9/11 didn't change -- that would be impossible. I will instead satisfy myself with a couple of examples. 9/11 didn't change the law of gravity, or the symphonies of Beethoven.
When you say "9/11 changed everything," I take you to mean that 9/11 changed, in a fundamental way, the willingness of the American public (and George W. Bush's Administration) to wage war on "rogue" Islamic countries.
This category includes one hard-line Sunni country that had direct ties to the 9/11 attacks: Afghanistan. OK, fair enough. (Oddly, it excludes Saudi Arabia, another hard-line Sunni country regarded as friendly, even though it gave birth to Osama bin Laden and to 95% of the 9/11 terrorists.)
Odder yet, the "rogue state" category has been interpreted by the Bush administration to include one country with a secular Arab government (Iraq), and another with a Shi'ite Muslim government (Iran). Neither Iraq nor Iran had anything to do with 9/11.
Let me repeat that last point. Regardless of those countries' other objectionable characteristics, neither Iraq nor Iran had anything to do with 9/11. This simple fact was imperfectly understood by the American public, at the time we invaded Iraq.
I think it's fair to say that the Bush administration deliberately fudged, and continues to try to fudge, this simple fact. But in retrospect, it was clear enough, even back in 2002. Al-Qaeda is an extremist Sunni terrorist organization. It makes some sense that Al-Qaeda would receive backing from hard-line Sunni governments like Afghanistan and Saudi Arabia. It makes no sense to think that Al-Qaeda would be backed or controlled by secular government of Iraq, or by the Shi'ite government of Iran.
-----
Since we invaded Iraq, we have suffered more than 4,000 American deaths there. Surely that is a tragedy, too. Whether the deaths of those 4,000 constitutes a greater or a lesser tragedy than 9/11 itself, is a question that is both pointless and tasteless. But it is inevitable, nonetheless.
How many thousands (tens of thousands? hundreds of thousands?) of innocent Iraqi lives have been lost as a result of our invasion and occupation? I don't know. It's a number that is impossible to know for certain, of course, but I don't see this administration ever attempting even to estimate it. It is, surely, another terrible human tragedy, another tragedy that 9/11 does nothing to change.
pluckon @ 2:01AM said "Ask your pro-Clinton friends if they want Roe v Wade overturned". This gets to the heart of the misconception about the Hillary holdouts.
They want to elect candidate HRC, not candidate Roe or candidate Wade. They view Hillary exactly the way Oprah views Barack - as The One. And they have every bit as much right as Oprah to view their candidate the way they see fit.
What fuels them now is growing umbrage that a freshman senator has in effect been rewarded for making a selfish career move at her expense equivalent to cutting in line ahead of Hillary at a checkout counter.
This they see as Obama's Original Sin, from which irredeemable character flaws will continue to be inferred, until such time as he repents e.g. picks HRC for VP. Of course, having now picked Biden pretty much condemns Barack to everlasting Hill, I mean Hell.
"Perhaps the greatest misconception about Barack Obama is that he is some sort of anti-establishment revolutionary. Rather, every stage of his political career has been marked by an eagerness to accommodate himself to existing institutions rather than tear them down or replace them."
The "misconception" stems from the Hero worship of the American people. Republicans thought Bush was a titan landing on the flight deck to declare "Mission Accomplished" and Democrats have had unreasonable expectations about what Obama will do when elected.
He'll be a pragmatist because that's where the balance of power now lies.
Movements and institutions matter much more than individuals, which is why Noam Chomsky calls Richard Nixon "the last liberal President."
It wasn't that Nixon had liberal instincts, it's that he was in a time when traditional liberalism still had great strength so he had to go along with plans to create the EPA, pass the environmental laws, create a "war on drugs" that emphasized drug treatment over police, etc., all ideas that would be hopelessly "leftist" if anyone tried to pass them today.
Bill Clinton was a moderate liberal, but he governed in a time when conservatives were gaining more power.
Right now, the nation is swinging back to the left, but it certainly isn't going to leap to progressive ideas all at once any more than Nixon winning in 1968 did. Conservatives had to build their power for 12 more years after that until they were ready to allow Reagan to govern from the right.
And, it's going to take a lot more time before the rising progressive movement is strong enough to permit a Democratic President to be an outright Progressive.
Obama is a moderate Democrat who is slightly to the left of Hillary and that's how he'll govern.
Obama did reject public financing, but Nate is just using Obama's Orwellian spin on this that by accepting private financing, it is actually public because it is from the "American public". You have to understand the Obama-speak here and not read it like an ordinary person or an independent would.
Obama is no radical---he is actually a conservative in the Burke style. It's only because the GOP has gone so completely insane and anti intellectual in recent years that he is seen as a liberal. This is also why certain Republicans are drawn to him (an elite phenomenon---not one to affect the elections, but interesting nonetheless).
A nerve has clearly been hit with you Obamabots on the Biden pick's chief weaknesses: One he was unconvinced during the primary that Obama had the capacity to lead the nation (as was Mrs. Clinton) and this will now come up time and time again, reinforcing the Republican message that Obama is not ready to lead. Second, while you all want to dismiss the so-called PUMAs as a small Republican fringe group, there are many , many disaffected former HRC voters out there who remain unassuaged and unimpressed by Biden's selection. Look at that recent WSJ poll -- 50% of her voters are not yet on board. And you wonder why the race is tight?
Biden has many fine qualities; we will no doubt see in the coming days how experienced and qualified he is. Obama will only suffer by comparison.
Worse, the Biden pick now reflects a shift in focus for the Obama campaign from a positive message about transcendent politics to one of John Edwards’s style populism and a fight over the working class votes over lunch bucket issues. Walter Mondale would approve -- and for that we only have to go back 24 years. Hardly new politics.
Biden's honeymoon (which probly will be cut short by the conventions) will turn into Obama's nightmare.
It remains to be seen how the Convention comes across. The media loves a scrap so all those non-existent PUMAs out there who appear like figments to so many of you will seem very real and very loud and very embarrassing to Senator Obama.
There were thunderstorms in Denver last night. Expect more bad weather.
Per George Stephanopulos just now, their lateswt poll: one-third of HRC's supporters are not Obama.
Those are very bad numbers.
How does Biden help there?
Perhaps those rural voters will come home once they learn of Biden's yeoman like service over 30 years on the Senate Foreign Relations Comm.
Ya never, know.
Sorm clouds over the Rockies. Rain in the forecast.
Pete Kent -
Per George Stephanopulos just now, their lateswt poll: one-third of HRC's supporters are not Obama.
Those are very bad numbers.
That literally can't be true. Since either Obama or Clinton would get at least 45% in head to head popular vote tracking polls, this would mean that 15% of the population would vote for HRC but not Obama, and vice versa, with only 30% overlap. That's ludicrous on the face of it.
If that were true the Democrat would still be favored, assuming we don't deny the tracking polls (either, or "generic Democrat" polls a bit ahead of McCain), and it would be excellent news for third party candidates.
There are a few right wing women who will vote for a woman, but otherwise Republican as default. That group is small though. With apologies to more intelligent readers, I do base this conclusion on extrapolation from anecdotal evidence. Note that unbiased anecdotal evidence is better than no evidence at all and can be used to formulate a testable hypothesis.
How does Biden help there?
He may actually attract fed-up conservative voters to the ticket, as he is older, male, white, and moderate, thus potentially alleviating the kind of irrational fears that even decent people can feel at times. If they were already considering Clinton, even if because of her gender, their loyalty to the wingnut cause is suspect, and some of them may switch to Obama. Especially with Clinton campaigning for him.
Perhaps those rural voters will come home once they learn of Biden's yeoman like service over 30 years on the Senate Foreign Relations Comm.
Ya never, know.
Sorm clouds over the Rockies. Rain in the forecast.
Perhaps this is information-less opinionizing, with plenty of juvenile sarcasm and fake "folksiness".
Gloria Borger- The Bill Clinton should have been consulted about VP pick.
If Barack Obama sought Clinton's advice on who Obama should as VP runningmate.
Clinton's advice would be he should choose between
Hillary Clinton
Bill Richardson
Evan Bayh
Joe Biden
Bill Clinton will say that Hillary,Bayh,and Biden will help Obama with the Bubba /Reagan Democratic voter.
Bill Clinton will say Bayh is boring at not popular with the liberal base. Hillary energizes the Republican Base.
That leaves us to Joe Biden. He has foriegn policy experience- He has an attack dog personality- He is a great on the Sunday talk show debates- He appeals to Reagan Blue Collar Democrats.
It's funny you put it this way, Nate, because of how much Obama reminds me of Bush.
Arrogant and inexperienced, distrustful of others but lost without them, insecurities about being a "decider," etc. It goes on and on. The more this country tries to get away from Bush, the more they will get of his brand of leadership.
I saw a 527 ad about William Ayres today -- first time I saw it, trying to link Obama to terrorism in the 1960s because of Ayres' unrepentant confession of his own actions and Obama's saying Ayres is a friend. No film or clips of Obama saying this.
This is being played in Michigan, as well as McCain ads quoting Hillary against Obama and quoting Biden against Obama. In fact, the ads were practically back to back.
This suggests two inferenc4es:
(1) the timing is designed to distract, in a sense to run these smear ads on the eve of and probably (I expect) during the Dem national convention at a time when the Dems don't want to be distracted or address this kind of issue. The question is whether the MSM will pick up the ad and themselves change to this subject. I doubt very much the Obama team will launch counterattacks or ads until after the convention, if at all.
(2) Obama did right by not handcuffing himself from a spending standpoint. Those who argued a couple of months ago, in attacking Obama for not accepting the federal campaign financing, that after all there was no 527 swiftboating this year, were wrong -- and Obama's team knew this kind of thing was likely.
It is so funny to see how upset all the ultra libs get when the racism and bigotry of their party is put in their face. Funny that whenever a conservative mentions anything about another race, sex or sexual orientation they are a racist, bigoted, homophobe but when a Lib says something blatantly racist they are "misquoted", "taken out of context", "misunderstood". Biden is a racist of the worst kind. You are all so funny. Sorry I hurt your intolerant feelings.
The Whole is Less than the Sum of Its Parts
Chris Matthews gushed about the new Democratic ticket all afternoon. The guy is borderline embarrassing and I can’t wait until Rachel Maddow takes over his show and Dan Abrams is restored to his 9 o’clock timeslot.
Of the many things that Matthews said that I disagreed with was with his statement that with the Obama-Biden ticket the whole was greater than the sum of its parts.
He said this after noting that with Obama the hair was always in place, the suit well-pressed, the tie just so. Whereas Biden was a regular Joe, quite literally, a little rumpled and just like regular folk.
It struck me immediately that this was a ticket that was a contrast in opposites. If Biden is the “regular Joe” than Obama really is the patrician presence. If Biden is real and rumpled, Obama is coiffed and scripted.
If Biden is a man of experience, Obama is a novice.
To the extent that Obama needed Biden to capture the working class, why is Obama at the top of the ticket?
All of the reasons for picking Biden were the very reasons to pick Mrs. Clinton. If anything he is Clinton-light. Heck he is barely a trace element compared to her. She outpolled him by more than 75 to 1 garnering 18 million votes to his 250,000.
Biden adds nothing geographically. He helps not a whit in the West and as an Easterner his appeal ends east of Harrisburg in PA. If you wanted Hispanics, pick Hillary she won them 60 – 70%. Rural voters she got them at 80%.
Obama has let it be known that Clinton got scarce consideration. The party elders talked him into picking Biden, steering him away from his sentimental choices that might have at least shown him to be the independent post-partisan man he claimed to be.
Now the party handlers have turned him into this crypto-populist from Kansas. Calling Dorothy, I think we are in Oz!
Oddest moment of the intro: Biden mooning over his wife like a lovesick high schooler. It was odd in the way that Gore’s kiss of Tipper in 2000 was odd. It seemed an odd contrast with the fist-bumping Obamas who seem to show little public affection for each other, Obama’s cool detachment extending even to his wife.
I wonder if Maureen Dowd picked up on it.
Pete, what is it that you want? Biden and Gore make too much kissy-face with their wives, according to you, while Obama's fist-bump with Michelle strikes you as too "cool". Jeez Louise, could you possibly find a smaller nit to pick!
Apparently, it is important to you that the Obamas plan their PDAs meticulously, carefully threading the needle between "too hot" and "too cold". For my part, I found the fist-bump "just right": affectionate, fun, and just a bit self-aware.
As for your objections to Biden, they amount to "He's no Hillary Clinton." There's no denying that she got many times more primary votes than Biden, or anybody else besides Obama. But she disqualified herself from serious consideration as Obama's VP when she disparaged his Commander-in-Chief credentials. There is a line that a runner-up may not cross, and Hillary Clinton repeatedly ran all over it.
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