The principal rationale for selecting Hillary Clinton as Barack Obama's running mate is that she would have united Democrats behind their nominee at a time when they have a substantial advantage in party identification. John Kerry received 89 percent of the Democratic vote in 2004; if Barack Obama can get within a couple of points of that, even to 86 or 87 percent, he will be very difficult to defeat.
However, Joe Biden might do nearly as good a job as Clinton of uniting the party, while perhaps paying less of a price among independents.
Rasmussen has fresh approval numbers out for Biden, as well as several other Democratic short-listers. Here, borrowed from Rasmussen's invaluable subscriber service, are their approval scores by party:DemocratsClinton has the highest favorables and highest net score among Democrats; Biden has the fewest unfavorables. Generally speaking, Clinton and Biden blow the other three candidates out of the water.
Candidate Fav-Unfav
Clinton 77-22 (+55)
Biden 65-17 (+48)
Bayh 45-25 (+20)
Sebelius 35-19 (+16)
Kaine 35-29 (+6)RepublicansAmongst Republicans, the ratings are very nearly the reverse. Joe Biden will not have a terrific amount of crossover appeal. On the contrary, though the animus might not be as personal as in the case of Senator Clinton, Biden will be seen by many GOPers as a partisan blowhard. One can argue, however, about whether this really matters. The notion that Obama was going to win over some large number of "Obamacans" had not realistically been in play for a couple of months now, as the GOP base has begun to rally behind John McCain.
Candidate Fav-Unfav
Kaine 29-30 (-1)
Bayh 23-43 (-20)
Sebelius 14-45 (-31)
Biden 22-63 (-39)
Clinton 21-75 (-54)IndepedentsWhere Biden might do some good is among independents, among whom he has the highest favorables and highest net rating, although a couple other candidates had lower unfavorables. But Biden certainly performs better amongst this critical group than Hillary Clinton. One can argue that Biden is very well positioned within the Democratic party, probably just slightly to the right of the average Democratic senator. Liberal Democrats certainly won't be pleased with his votes on the AUMF or the bankruptcy bill, but they still essentially trust him, which they wouldn't necessarily with a more identifiably centrist choice like Evan Bayh or Tim Kaine. But on the other hand, Biden cannot so easily be characterized as a liberal to turn off independent voters; in fact, independents and moderates like him pretty well.
Candidate Fav-Unfav
Biden 42-29 (+13)
Bayh 31-21 (+10)
Kaine 24-23 (+1)
Sebelius 18-21 (-3)
Clinton 39-57 (-18)
Let's take one more, slightly different take on this. This time, we'll look at impressions of the candidates based not on party ID, but rather, based on who the voters had intended to vote for in November. Let's make the following assumptions:
- For each McCain voter that has a very favorable view of Biden, one-quarter of them will switch their vote to Obama.
- For each McCain voter that has a somewhat favorable view of Biden, one-eighth of them will switch their vote to Obama.
- For each Obama voter that has a somewhat unfavorable view of Biden, one-eighth of them will switch their vote to McCain.
- For each Obama voter that has a very unfavorable view of Biden, one-quarter of them will switch their vote to McCain.
Does that sound reasonable? It sounds reasonable to me, though I really have no idea. But let's run the numbers and see what we get:
VF = Very Favorable
SF = Somewhat Favorable
VU = Very Unfavorable
SU = Somewhat Unfavorable
... McCain Voters Obama Voters
Candidate VF SF VU SU Net Margin
Biden 4 20 5 10 +2.00
Bayh 4 19 4 16 +0.75
Kaine 8 21 8 20 +0.25
Clinton 11 14 13 14 -0.50
Sebelius 3 13 5 13 -0.50
8.23.2008
Can Biden Out-Hillary Hillary?
@ 1:45 PM
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214 comments
Mule rider,
You are a creationist/intelligent design person. Intelligent design is a provem fraud. Creationsim isn't science it's theology.
Btw, Miller Urey experiments if you don't remember that while sleeping in science class.
Rudy:
But is is fair to say that tax increases have hurt the economy much more often than not and that tax cuts, in practice, have been invariably positive for the economy.
I don't think it's safe to say that at all. The Reagan tax cuts left us with crippling debt where 14% of every tax dollar was going to debt service. H.W. Bush did the responsible thing to get the fiscal house under some control, and it probably cost him the election. Clinton raised rates further, and a balanced budget led to low interest rates, a strong dollar, and good conditions for growth.
The fact is we were paying our bills under the Clinton tax code. And now we're not. And while I doubt that raising the top marginal rate from 35% to 39.6% will produce any significant drag on the economy, it could go a ways to restoring our nation's fiscal responsibility.
The concept of "paying for" tax cuts is a flawed idea, because it ignores the stimulative effects, treating them as static.
I've heard that argument before, but there's little agreement on how stimulative the cuts are. So the responsible thing to do would be to pay for them when enacted and reap the benefits later. To do otherwise is to entail some risk of fiscal disaster. But we like thinking that everything is free.
And I don't think history is on the side of tax cuts paying for themselves. The Reagan ones certainly didn't; we landed in a recession. (How many years lag time do you propose? Because eventually the economy will turn up, so any tax cut can get credit eventually. Or so could any tax hike.) Plus you seem to state that any stimulative effect is blunted because tax cuts almost by necessity go to people who pay more of them and so who are least likely to spend them. If that's true, we'd get a bigger stimulative effect for our tax buck by giving more money to working class families.
The Obama idea of doing exactly the opposite of what the Laffer Curve would suggest
But you say that we don't know where on the Laffer Curve we are. The curve is obviously correct on the extremes, but what happens in the middle and were we are on it is anyone's guess. And once again, the Clinton years should show that the tax rates of those times were not a significant impediment to strong and sustained economic growth--even when just coming out of a recession.
I think it's a fair argument to say that Obama's suggestion that we get our fiscal house in order will have a far more beneficial effect on the economy than more tax cuts to add onto the ones that were never paid for in the first place.
We are living beyond our means, both in personal debt and national debt. These trends are simply not sustainable. As a member of the wealthy, I can assure you we won't be hurt if our top marginal rates go up by a few percent and we stop getting such beneficial treatment on our long term capital gains. We all did fine in the 90s.
Mule Rider: Saying science has disproven intelligent design (and hence a Deity) is false.
But that's not the question. The question is whether intelligent design has any scientific basis. Since it cannot be disproved (any discrepancy can be explained away with "that's how the designer did it"), it's not science.
On the other hand, the fossil record is compelling evidence for evolution. It's amazingly consistent. People can argue over the details, but at least it's evidentiary support, and if something were really out of place it would cause some serious rethinking or disposal of the theory.
Read some Richard Dawkins. Then get back to us.
Dsimon, the Laffer Curve represents middle ground, and what I said about it was that economics is so highly complex, you can't do point-to-point conclusions. But it does stand to reason that you'd keep with a policy until it stops working. Tax cuts are still working every time they're tried, which isn't often enough.
One of the problems with our income tax system is that it's already steeply progressive and sub-50th percentile taxpayers already pay very low rates and only pay THREE PERCENT of income tax revenue. So there's just not that much more to gain by "soaking the rich" without increasing their incentives to find ways to game or get out of the system, and that's what would happen.
Even unaffected people recognize that entitlement reform, which is the crux of any long-term budget problems, requires more substance than a knee-jerk increasing of taxes. That's why the Republican campaign will focus upon poking holes in those arguments. They usually win those in national elections.
It is indisputable that tax revenue increased sharply in the years after the Reagan tax cuts. The same is true after every US tax cut ever. The Laffer Curve has worked in spades, creating the longest peacetime economic expansion in US history.
I don't know where you're getting your info about the supposed disatrousness of the Reagan tax cuts. We were in the recession before the cuts, and they brought us out of it. I think you fell into the trap of looking at deficits, not revenue, which I warned of earlier. Same is true with your other assertions involving deficits. Most economists agree that Clinton benefited from wind-at-the-back from the earlier tax-cut-driven growth plus the one-time productivity gain from the internet economy explosion. there's no evidence to suggest tax increases stimulated any of that growth, just that they weren't big enough to derail it. Big difference.
Mule Rider,
Don't pray for me pray for yourself and your kids been brain washed in learning intelligent design. Thank goodness we keep the crazed like from imposing their bullshit trying to pass as science out of our classrooms. Intelligent design has been blown away as garbage trying to pass as a science and fringe religious rights as yourself trying to pass it off as science. They tried to pass that crap off as science in PA to be taught in school. You might want to read the transcripts of the Dover PA US District Court case. You can also ge ta synopsis from the 2hr NOVA special on the case against intelligent design. The testimony ripped your bullshit of intelligent design to shreds. Leaving the intelligent design backers hemming and hawing with no answers, as science proved them to be the fringe religious zealots that they are.
Tax cuts are still working every time they're tried, which isn't often enough.
Again, where is the evidence? The argument that revenues usually increase when taxes are cut is not cause and effect; after all, revenues go up when taxes go up too. The reason revenues go up is because population growth, economic growth, and inflation counter the effects that a few percentage points of change in the income tax. I believe there was a good NY Times article within the past year or two on how the tax cutters' claims simply were not backed up by the evidence once other factors are taken into account.
One of the problems with our income tax system is that it's already steeply progressive and sub-50th percentile taxpayers already pay very low rates and only pay THREE PERCENT of income tax revenue. So there's just not that much more to gain by "soaking the rich" without increasing their incentives to find ways to game or get out of the system, and that's what would happen.
That's a nice argument. Unfortunately, it's not backed up by the Clinton years. Most of the rich didn't game or try to get out of the system. Those rates were simply not onerous enough to inspire that kind of activity generally.
And our overall tax system is not steeply progressive. About 3/4 of Americans pay more in payroll tax than in income tax. So since you say that we'd get more bang for the tax cut buck at the lower ends, we should be looking at a payroll tax cut first. But few tax-cutters propose such a thing.
Most economists agree that Clinton benefited from wind-at-the-back from the earlier tax-cut-driven growth plus the one-time productivity gain from the internet economy explosion. there's no evidence to suggest tax increases stimulated any of that growth, just that they weren't big enough to derail it.
I've heard plenty of economists say that balancing the budget--which would never have happened without the Clinton tax rates--was instrumental in creating the economic conditions for sustained growth. By contrast, the Bush tax cuts have led to a weak dollar and high gas prices (which is an implicit tax hike, except that we don't get the revenues).
Even unaffected people recognize that entitlement reform, which is the crux of any long-term budget problems, requires more substance than a knee-jerk increasing of taxes. That's why the Republican campaign will focus upon poking holes in those arguments.
Most responsible budget-watchers know that entitlement programs are a long-term problem. But I don't see Republicans proposing any responsible solutions either. (Bush's Social Security privitization scheme totally glossed over the gargantuan transition costs with no clue as to how they would be paid for.) It's not like Democrats have a monopoly on avoiding the tough issues.
We were in the recession before the cuts, and they brought us out of it.
Again, the confusion of correlation with cause. Perhaps we would have come out of the recession anyway, and without the huge deficits that helped contribute to the G.W. Bush recession (surely he wasn't in office long enough for that to be his fault--or was it the "lag time" from the Reagan tax cuts?).
With the Biden VP pick, McMain has to pick Romney now. Biden will eat Pawlenty for lunch during the debates, and Pawlenty won't net MN anyway. Romney pick will pit two rich out-of-touch guys who can't stand each other against two guys who will drive the middle class economic message from now thru Nov 3rd. Evangelicals are more suspicious of Romney than they are of McCain
Rudy,
Two more things about tax cuts.
First, the argument that the progressive tax system is too steep because the lower half of income earners pay only 3% of the nation's income tax leaves out an important number: how much the lower half of income earners actually make. One reason that the top income earners pay so much of the national income tax is, well, because they make a lot more than everyone else. That's the definition of being among the top income earners. The lowest quintile make so little that I don't think anyone (even flat tax proponent Steve Forbes) believes they should pay any income tax (which means few people really believe in a flat tax at all). Progressivity tilts the percentages, but a lot of the disparity in who pays what is who makes what, not just who is taxed at what rate.
Second, the whole idea that the Bush tax cuts were designed to be stimulative is a canard. The tax cuts were originally proposed to give the surplus back to those who earned it. When the tech bubble burst and the economy slid, those same tax cuts (with only minor revisions) were sold as a stimulus package. My recollection is that most economists said (and would say today) that giving tax cuts to higher income people is a poor stimulus proposal. We wound up taking on unproductive debt because of it. It was simply a bad choice on how to restructure our tax code. You seem to agree that the most effective stimuli are aimed at middle and lower income groups, so I don't see how a tax cut that was aimed so predominantly at the wealthy (as McCain said at the time) was a wise decision.
Dsimon, I'm not sure if you really believe the counter-assertions you're making, or if you're just volleying with me to try to blunt my arguments. Your facts aren't facts.
Regardless, this is too complex of a discussion to hash out on a board like this. As we agree, economics is complex, and we agree that unlimited tax cuts eventually hurt revenue if they're not able to produce sufficient growth, just as tax increases hurt revenue by stifling growth.
We can never say what would have happened otherwise in any scenario, just as we can't isolate the effects of a single action on the economy. We must look at the history and the weight of the evidence, and that shows broad support for the logic for the power of lowering marginal tax rates stimulating growth and increasing tax revenue. That is mostly plainly evidenced by comparing growth in the US since the Reagan tax cuts with growth in high-tax economies over the same period. You can pick at some of the details, but the macro picture is clear.
As you probably know, supply-side tax cuts are all the rage in Europe right now, so we'll see if those economies can replicate the same growth effects that the US has had. If not, that would be among the first evidence of ineffectiveness of such tactics.
What concerns me most about Obanm's stated tax policy is that it would revert to failed strategies. Sure, because of the 1-2 year lag effect, raising tax rates would produce higher short-term revenue, but at two significant costs: lower future growth and exacerbation of the entitlement problem resulting from lower growth.
You say Republicans haven't been willing to face that entitlement monster either, and to some degree that's correct. Politicians of all stripes have found the path of least resistance (for them) to not keep as good a handle on spending, creating this time bomb.
However, growth-oriented tax policy is the best hope for solving this problem without damaging the economy, a concept that the class-warfare types completely dismiss, I think through ignorance.
I'll let you have the last word in this thread (if you're still monitoring), but we're sure to revisit this topic often, as it is so critical.
Despite the Dems and the allied main stream media’s desperation to see Romney as McCain’s Veep, Mitt is clearly out, with (1) Obama doubling down on the class warfare theme (McCain’s 7 houses) and (2) McCain doubling down with ads showing the hypocrisy of Biden attacking Obama in the primaries — Romney did way more than that contra McCain.
This leaves only Govs Sarah Palin and Tim Pawlenty. Pro-abortion Ridge and Dem-Lieberman were never real considerations, despite relentless media goading. Pawlenty’s lackluster TV performances, coupled with Palin pizzazz, the primacy of oil drilling and the ticked off women/Hillary voters, does now portend a McCain/Palin checkmate on the Dems. This is so albeit the Dems and liberal media dare not mention Palin’s name, that is, everyone but…..
And if there’s any question as to Palin being uniquely positioned and able to more than nullify Biden in debate, see the excellent discussion at palinforvp.blogspot.com
Team McCain, well done!!!
Rudy:
Dsimon, I'm not sure if you really believe the counter-assertions you're making, or if you're just volleying with me to try to blunt my arguments. Your facts aren't facts.
I'm not arguing for the sake of being combative. I've seen many articles, including in the NY Times, on studies saying that tax cuts simply do not pay for themselves in most circumstances. I saw time and time again economists saying that if one wanted to stimulate the economy, the Bush tax cuts were a poor way to do it (which makes sense since they were not designed to be stimulative to begin with and so did not go to those most likely to spend it). I believe the last point is relatively uncontroversial. If one wanted to stimulate the economy through tax cuts, cutting the wage tax would have been more effective.
I believe that it's also relatively uncontroversial that even if tax cuts may be stimulative, large government debt is an economic drag since it increases competition for selling debt and drives up interest rates.
I don't think the marco picture is clear at all. Taking the argument to the extreme, which you do not, would imply that cutting taxes to zero would pay for itself, which it obviously would not. Why, then, conclude that the Bush or McCain tax cuts would necessarily pay for themselves? There are plenty of well respected economists who say they don't. And until we see the benefits, the responsible thing to do would to require spending cuts in the package.
Obama's tax plan would leave most of the Bush tax cuts in place. Consequently, I see little reason to conclude that they would have such a dire effect on the economy. Most people I know among the wealthy simply aren't sensitive to a few percent difference in our top marginal rates.
Even without the entitlement time bomb, we're living beyond our means as a nation right now, and this path is unsustainable. And we don't know where we are on the Laffer Curve, so it's entirely possible that further tax cuts will further reduce revenues. Not to balance tax cuts with spending cuts is to risk making an unsustainable path even less sustainable and so require an even more painful fix to deal with the result. That's a chance that we as a nation should not take when we can lower the risk by acting in a fiscally responsible manner.
But Republicans, like Democrats (who have at least instituted a weak form of pay-as-you-go for now), aren't willing to ask us to make the tough choices ourselves, and therefore they can't make them either. And that's a bipartisan failure of leadership.
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