Marc Ambinder raises a simple but important point about the Democratic veepstakes:
Item: the Democratic National Convention Committee confirms that Gov. Kathleen Sebelius has been given a Tuesday night speaking slot. Evidence that she won't be chosen as vice president?It's been a lot of fun, but we've probably been guilty of overinterpretation. Having been a partner in a small business, I can attest to the fact that rumors are contagious, and that the risk of leaks is an exponential function of the number of people let in on the secret.
Not really. The convention schedulers and Obama's VP team are entirely separate and segregated.
The fact is that if the convention planners and schedulers in Denver know the identity of Obama's Vice Presidential selection, that means a lot of people know. And if a lot of people know, that means the media would know.
But the media doesn't know.
Ergo, not very many people do know. Perhaps only some combination of Obama, Axelrod, Plouffe, Gibbs, and the candidate him or herself, if the candidate has been chosen at all.
Ergo, we know nothing.
90 comments
New Survey USA poll on Washington:
Presidential race:
Obama 51
McCain 44
Governor race:
Gregoire 50
Rossi 48
Obama will be untrue to his gut feelings if he chooses Bayh over Sebelius.
She has been a true liberal post-partisan leader, sticking to her principles on issues California liberals would crumble.
Obama will prove he is much more of a tactician than people think by choosing Bayh
Warner would be a great choice too, does anyone know wtf he is refusing the VP spot?
Sebelius>Warner>Bayh
Having said all that I would not be unhappy with Bayh.
No, it's going to be Biden, if not him, Bayh, if not him, Kaine, if not him, Sebelius, in not him...
Wait, where did this shortlist come from? Is it really the shortlist? Maybe none of them are in contention? Maybe they are, but 5 others are also? Etc. etc. etc.
The wait is killing me.
Ooh. Hadn't thought of this. Ambinder raises a great point here.
Bayh, Biden, Clark, Clinton, Kaine, Nunn, Richardson, Schweitzer, Sebelius. Decisions decisions. If I were to guess, I'd say Bayh and Sebelius are the likeliest, but any one of those folks could get the nod.
Still hoping for Schweitzer.
Who knows about Obama's gut. All I know (and I know bubkes) is that my gut is telling me Biden or Clark. I'd be happy with either, but happier with Biden. I think he'd be a great choice and he would eat whoever McBush chooses for breakfast. (Imagine a debate between Biden and Romney. That I'd love to see.)
go on survey...now please gimme a good poll on Indiana...
Liking that WA poll!
It will not be Bayh. He has been amrginalized and shot down in the MSN for being too pro-war. I think he is toast.
I am hoping Obama picks Sibelius. Nothing could be worse for party unity. KA is also so totally out of reach that she will not add anything electorally to the ticket. Oh year, she once took a pee in youngstown; that should clinch Obama for the ticket.
It won't be Biden. He is too much the top dog for Obama.
His only hope: Mrs. Clinton herself. Obama has abandoned every principle in this race and stands for nothing. Why not pick her and get elected? Is there anything else that matters to him?
McCain's smart pick remains Rob Portman. Ohio, Ohio, Ohio!
petekent what about mike huckabee? he is very strong with evangelicals...with him McCain can lock the south and gain ground in some midwest battlegrounds ( Ohio and Missouri on the top )...
Warner is not going to be VP because we need that second senate seat.
Without Warner running for it, it becomes a much more difficult turnover.
Portman won't give McCain Ohio, Pete. Ohio has had native sons elected PRESIDENT. Now, if McCain puts a guy from some state that has never sent a native son into the Oval Office or Observatory Circle on the ticket, he'll see a big spike in that state; picking a representative - not even someone with a statewide constituency - from a state that's contributed its fair share of boys to the office of (V)POTUS isn't going to make enough of an impact.
i agree if Obama picks HRC GOP is in trouble...
Silifi, hopefully that's why Bayh won't be VP either.
And sure, the Dems lose a governorship if Schweitzer or Sebelius is on the ticket, but governors aren't part of the hotly contested federal legislative branch.
If Obama picks HRC we're ALL in trouble.
Another good pick for McCain can be Alaska governor Sarah Palin ( with Jindal and Huckabee the fresh face of the GOP party )
Ohio isn't enough for McCain. As an Obama supporter, I think Romney is the scariest choice, just because it makes Michigan a gigantic question mark.
Sarah Palin is in a middle of a mini-controversy of alleged cronyism. I doubt she would be VP (she is also relatively unknown out of AK). She's also been spouting so pro-Obama rhetoric, so.....
Q: Why is Warner refusing the VP slot?
A. Because he can do more good for the Democratic Party in Virginia by winning that Senate seat. Even without Warner, Obama is running dead-even in Virginia. And even if he doesn't win there, it doesn't appear that Virginia is absolutely essential to an Obama victory.
So why pick Warner? Or Kaine, for that matter? I haven't seen much evidence at all that either one of them helps outside of VA - for that matter, I don't see that any VP choice is good for much more than half-a-million votes.
The only reason conservatives want Hillary is because she's the only VP pick who can supercharge the GOP base which, recently, has not exactly been energized.
If Obama is serious about governing, he ought to pick Sebelius who, based on her record as governor, would've made a better president than McCain, HRC or Barack. God knows, we need some competence in there. She's the gutsy pick but are Americans ready for a black-white woman ticket? The safe choice is going to be Biden or Bayh. Kaine's a lightweight.
As for why we know they're on the shortlist, it is because they've all been asked to hand over their financial stuff. Or at least, they haven't explicitly said that the campaign has not asked them for their papers. Rob Portman hasn't been:
"Portman has been rumored to be on John McCain's list of potential running mates, but says he hasn't been asked for the financial information required as part of a candidate's background check, and doesn't expect to be.
'I'm happy to help him, here in Indiana and around the country, but he's got a lot of great choices,' Portman says."
Doesn't look like it's going to be Portman b/c its this late and he's had no contact from the VP search team.
I think Romney is repugnant enough to anyone who isn't a shrieking neoconservative that he'll actually hurt McCain everywhere except for Michigan and maybe Nevada and some states that were going to be bright crimson anyway. McCain can use Romney to win Michigan and Nevada, and there's a bunch of nice EVs, but that doesn't really help him if Romney pushes Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado into Obama's column.
No one likes Romney outside of the far right, and people will really hate him after the VP debate.
Sebelius, it will be. She helps in CO, OH, MO IN. It's about the geography, folks.
yes i read something about Sarah Palin mini-scandal...in my opinion nothing to be worried...
my shortlist for GOP VP is:
1 - Mike Huckabee
2 - Sarah Palin
3 - John Engler ( former michigan governor...he can help to pick that state )
FWIW, Schweitzer is speaking at the convention. I really hope he is the one selected.
Attack the energy problem and then international policy won't be concerned mainly with oil and where to get it.
From the DNCC, Speakers for Tuesday night:
Convention Co-Chair Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius
Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano
Governors Ted Strickland of Ohio
Ed Rendell of Pennsylvania
Senator Bob Casey, Jr. of Pennsylvania
Governor Deval Patrick of Massachusetts
Governor Brian Schweitzer of Montana
Federico Peña, former Mayor of Denver and Secretary of both Energy and Transportation
I would be fine with Sebelius, but I really think Biden is a great pick for the base. He'll be great on the campaign trail, the debate and the talkies. I also would be VERY comfortable with Biden as President if something did happen to Obama.
As much as I don't particularly care for Hillary Clinton, I think she could potentially be a brilliant choice for Obama's VP. The primary was a long, tough one with a few really nasty comments from HRC (notably the two commander-in-chief remarks), and the Democratic party is only mostly united at this stage. I suspect that most of the HRC voters have or will vote for Obama, but if he picks up another 2-4% of the Dem vote, he probably wins OH and with it the election.
More importantly, it could help to bolster Obama's image as a more post-partisan (yes, HRC is a Democrat, but she got support from a different segment of the party) and pragmatic politician. Obama has said that he really respects Doris Kearns Goodwin's "Team of Rivals," which emphasizes how Lincoln invited his strongest critics to be part of his cabinet because he wanted different viewpoints and the most qualified people. Obama could easily justify choosing HRC by saying that she is the most qualified VP candidate, and the millions of votes she received suggests that many people agree. It would also be a surprise pick, since nobody expects it at this stage. If McCain is complaining about not getting enough coverage now, imagine him trying to get media time when facing an Obama/Clinton ticket. Finally, Hillary Clinton is a bulldog who could really attack McCain and the Republicans effectively. Given that McCain has been constantly praising her since she lost the nomination, he can't really go after her too hard. It also would help the party because the NY Governor is a Dem and would appoint a Dem replacement, who would have a good chance to get re-elected.
Granted, the GOP would use her as a rally to motivate their base, but: 1. the attack ads on Obama seem to be doing this already, and 2. Clinton as a VP would likely be less toxic than her as a presidential candidate. It would piss off liberals as well, but how many would really not vote for Obama because of it?
Clintons already gearing up for 2012. She will not take the second seat unless she gets a quicky divorce.
As an Obama supporter, I think Romney is the scariest choice, just because it makes Michigan a gigantic question mark.
Has SUSA done a poll with a McCain-Romney pairing since the end of the primaries?
The last one I can find was from 5/27 and it showed McCain leading Obama by 4 points. With Romney on the ticket, the Republicans trounced almost every Democratic ticket by double digits.
In fact, I think that's the last poll to date to show McCain with a lead in MI.
I wonder how much of that had to do with name recognition. McCain and Romney had both campaigned heavily in the MI primary, and the only Democratic combos that did not lose big to them were Obama-Clinton (-5), Obama-Gore (-4), and Obama-Edwards (-3). Go figure. The former VP and Obama's main rivals for the Democratic nomination.
I'm just not convinced that the "My father was governor here 40 years ago" argument is going to swing Michigan. No, where I think Romney would be worth more would be in states where there are higher concentrations of Mormons; Nevada, for instance.
HRC is never going to be Barack's pick for one simple reason: He hates drama (unlike TNT)(bad joke).
His campaign is leak proof and they march to his tune. Hillary's not going to do that, Bill's not going to get over his anger to do that, and I can't see the Clintons (who have always thrived on chaos) keeping a lid on themselves for two months 'til the general, let alone for four or eight years. And Obama's people recognize that.
Also, its tradition for the VP pick to speak on Tuesday right? If that's correct, that would mean someone on that list is going to be the VP or they'll sneak someone in later, right?
Killjoy, the other thing that's always puzzled me about Romney in MI: if he's so loved there, why did he only get 39% in the Republican primary there?
It's not as though the Romney campaign didn't have the cash to get out the vote, and MI was pretty much Romney's big chance to regain momentum after losing both IA and NH....
If Obama needs to shore up his foriegn policy/national security credentials and needs an attack dog defender who is good on the Sunday Talk shows going on Hardball,Morning Joe,etc. He should pick Joe Biden.
If Obama needs to reach out to the Clinton Voters- appeal to Independents and Moderates- win in battleground states OH,MI,IN,MO- and gain foreign policy/national security credentials- then he should pick Bayh.
Sebelius does not add anything to the ticket because Kansas is a deep red state it is unlikely to flip. Polls in Kansas show McCain with a 15 point lead.
The rational for picking Kaine is Virginia.
Yeah Sedi, I agree with all your points--
As an Obama supporter and former Hillary despiser this year, I find myself coming around to the idea of her as VP too. A few more points that I see
- It finally seems to have been taken off the table by the media covering Hillary supporters, so this is the point when it could actually happen and not look like caving to pressure or whatever.
- That weird "I want you to know my VP choice first" email seems like he might want to get in to his supporters first and explain himself, for instance to say "I know we all hated Hillary in the primary, but she's really not that bad!" (Or "team of rivals.." etc, to be more PC)
- The attack ads with Hillary saying bad things about Obama would be completely off the table once she got going in attack dog mode.
haha. anyway, all entirely speculation, but somehow I see Hillary's stock rising again recently. I'm certainly fine with her not doing it though-- I get Hillary overload much quicker than most people.
On the original subject of the post, I agree it's ridiculous to speculate on the announced convention speaking order. Not only are the unlikely to sloppily let us know the VP through weird process of elimination "who's not speaking" type games.. But how hard could it possibly be to rearrange speaking order for the convention. Or to have someone speak briefly and then speak again as the main focus as the VP. These guessing games are quite silly.
http://www.daylife.com/photo/01u33pL9Ns06D:LINK
This was breaking news on a Hillary Clinton site.
Evidently, an AP reporter has found Obama's school registration in Indonesia.
Some interesting tidbits.
Tea leaves against HRC, though: The fact that she's standing by and allowing the PUMAs to get all fired up pre-convention, sort of quietly encouraging the notion that her name should be placed in nomination, doing nothing to discourage any of that at the very least...
An Obama/Clinton ticket would have only one purpose, and that is party unity. If such a ticket were in the works, don't you think HRC would be trying to soften the PUMAs up in preparation, rather than making cheery little addresses encouraging her supporters to make their presence felt at the convention.
The flip side of that, though, is that by playing up the amount of support she has, HRC could be casting the "dream ticket" as both necessary and inevitable. Seems like nasty side effects though if all of this PUMA pre-gaming results in a visible rift that won't be healed by HRC simply being the Democratic nominee for VICE president - i.e. loud disruptive protesting when Obama and not Hillary is officially given the party nomination.
Personally, I don't think it's likely, but stranger things could happen. I floated the idea that Obama could throw out the Al Gore knuckleball a week or two ago, after all...
Conservative from Rome said...
New Survey USA poll on Washington:
Presidential race:
Obama 51
McCain 44
This is an incredible pickup for John McCain. In five previous Survey USA polls, McCain has never been closer than 12, and that was months ago.
Last month it was Obama by 16.
It's quite possible that the Georgian crisis has already moved a body of voters to the more experienced candidate. The 9 point pickup had Obama down 4 from his previous mark and McCain +5 from last month.
Warner is highest impact VP possible. Both in terms of tilting a state and appealing to Appalachian voters.
He kicked ass everywhere in VA.
The shift in Washington state is with Independents. The July poll has Obama winning indies 48-41, this poll has McCain taking the indies at 45-43. Whether this is a one off blip or the start of a trend will require some more polls.
I have no doubt that Warner would have liked to run for VP, but chose to take a Senate seat for the good of the party because he could win it in a walk, and no other VA Dem has better than a 50-50 chance.
As for geographic arguments, the VP pick has a barely significant influence on any state since the demise of the political machines in the 60s. In the case of Warner, I would be willing to bet that he'll benefit Obama more in VA running as a Senate candidate, where he'll spend all his time campaigning in Virginia, than he would as VP, where he would spend most of his time introducing himself to the rest of the country.
LOL, if Romney could bring Michigan he'd be on the ticket already, that would guarantee McCain the election. V.P.'s usually can't bring their state.So Romney who couldn't win the republican Primary, is going to deliver Michigan because his dad was governor? Give me a break.
I totally agree Hillary would be the best choice for VP but Barack has already said it's Bill Clinton thats the elephant in the room. How do you deal with a 65 year old child whose used to being President and has shown he cannot be controlled.
It is unlikely now that Sibelius will be the pick with her speaking role, sometimes we overcomplicate these things. It's not Sebelius, a friend of Governor Kaine has leaked Kaine's dissapointment that its not him. Bhye has a senate seat the democrats need in Indiana so that leaves one obvious choice who has been very quite these past few weeks. Biden. Team that with the fact that the night the Vice President gives his/her speeech at the convention is themed "National Security night." Nice and tidy with Mr. Biden.
MATT J. H. said "the Vice President gives his/her speeech at the convention is themed 'National Security night.' "
Matt,
Actually, the theme on the night the VP nominee will speak is "Securing America's Future."
I have suggested before (and I will flog this dead horse) that this means the focus will be on Obama's energy plan, since this ranks as one of the most significant issues listed by Americans in all polling. Further, what will do more to secure America's future than to achieve independence from (or at least substantially less reliance on) unreliable foreign energy supplies.
If it is energy, then I think it is likely Schweitzer, since his credibility on alternative energy is substantial. Obama could have Schweitzer prepare an energy plan (like Cheney did), but do it in public, with input from all parties.
I'm one of the "nutjobs," but that is how I see the tea leaves.
I would definitely be comfortable with Sibelius or Biden, if (likely, when) my tea leave reading is shown to be wrong.
Obama was down 14 in Rasmussen's Kansas poll today, up a massive 9 points from being down 23 in the previous Ras Kansas poll!! This is clearly evidence that the Georgia crisis and being on vacation is shifting things in Obama's direction!!
(Try not to read so much into a single state poll - being on this site should teach a person that).
MATT J. H.:
It is unlikely now that Sibelius will be the pick with her speaking role, sometimes we overcomplicate these things.
Er, Matt, did you read Nate's post? Armbinder presents a very strong argument that the people scheduling the speeches don't know who the VP is going to be, so being scheduled to give a speech shouldn't rule out a candidate.
I'm with Ben. If it's Bayh, Clinton, or (God forbid) Nunn, I'm going to be really unhappy. Hagel would be my first choice in Fantasy Land, but he's not viable at all...maybe better as Secretary of State, maybe Secretary of Defense if Obama gives Bob Gates (who I think has done an admirable job, especially in the wake of the disasters on two legs that were Don Rumsfeld and John Ashcroft) the boot.
And a note to people who are getting excited over the Washington poll:
Obama is still leading there by a substantial margin. What's more, McCain's "jump" is about coincidental with the MoE. Furthermore, Gov. Gregoire (D-WA) is leading by 2 in a race that came down to a recount in '04 against the same guy, Dino Rossi. (Guess what Rossi's catchword is? "CHANGE.")
"Obama has abandoned every principle in this race and stands for nothing."
Wow, "Pete Kent" what an argument. You just post lies and hope no one notices. What a sad lying loser you are.
It will be fun watching McCain fight the other GOP senators in the "Gang of Ten" over drilling. One GOP Rep. has lost a seat over drilling and McCain wants to just say no to energy. What a losing plan.
How much are you paid "Pete Kent" to spam these boards? Just asking!
NC moderate,
Pete is actually a parrot. He says random phrases that he picked up [or made up] ad nauseum...
Maybe cute the first time, but now it is just noisy screeching.
try this: "Pete want a cracker ???"
Biden has been very quiet for some time. No "Every McCain sentence contains a noun, a verb and War" comments.
You can stop the speculation. Bayh hasn't been given a speaking slot yet. I have it on good authority that Bayh has hired a babysitter for the afternoon of August 25th, the day after the Olympic closing ceremonies. He and his wife will lunch at Ruby Tuesday's and then he will join Obama in Terre Haute for the VP announcement. He will get home late and offer the babysitter some leftover quesadillas to make up for it.
How did I make this logical leap? Simple. The babysitter is Bill Ayres and was recommended to Bayh by Michelle Obama.
Now that this is settled, let's get back to some polls!
counsellor said
I think it is likely Schweitzer, since his credibility on alternative energy is substantial. Obama could have Schweitzer prepare an energy plan (like Cheney did), but do it in public, with input from all parties.
It's not gonna be Schweitzer. Reporters talk to campaigns and find out who's being vetted. Guess what, Schweitzer isn't. I love the guy, I think he'd be great but he's not on the list.
Yes it could be Sibelius still, and she'd probably be Obama's first choice, but Obama's biggest problem is perceived lack of experience and a lot of voters may like him, but feel like they don't know him and thus he's risky. It might take a Biden for voters to feel comfortable with handing the keys over to Obama. Biden sends a message
"I know you may not trust me, but you do trust Joe, and he's there to keep an eye out and steer me in the right direction."
Thats what Obama needs. Hillary people love Joe Biden. The Clintons love Joe Biden. Older democrats love Joe Biden. He's Catholic, he's from Scranton, PA, he'll tear McCain apart and Romney too.
I've stated this before, but if Romney (Who I think McCain will pick out of necessity) gets cute talking about democrats surrendering to terrorists in the VP debate, Biden will rip his nuts off.
As you can see I like Biden. Obama provides the glitz, Biden the hammer and experience. Good combo.
Re: Biden: The MSM will no doubt bring up the Neil Kinnoch issue whilst at the same time ignoring McCain getting his Georgia comments from Wikipedia. Did James Garner get all these free passes when he was a Maverick?
come on people.
you do NOT cherrypick an individual poll & claim that a one time 'snaphot' shows a major shift or indicates a trend.
TJB & others, no one knowledgeable can take you seriously when you state that an apparent outlier like SUSA - WA provides results indicating trouble for Obama or a trend for McCain.
Nate's site & intelligent stat junkies know that at this point in time you follow the trends & average comaparable results.
As I stated earlier for Pete's sake [clearly a wasted effort] regarding WI, take a pollster & track the trends & compare the internals too.
Now for WA, the easiest is follow Rasmussen's monthly polls on the right...
5/12 Obama +11 51%
6/9 Obama +18 53%
7/9 Obama +8 51%
8/6 Obama +12 54%
So where is the problem for Obama or movement for McCain ?
Obama over 50% all summer and the spread is well over the MOE...
relative stability for Obama w/safe margin any way you slice & dice it.
Matt J.H., where did you read that Schweitzer is not being vetted? Or did you only see him *not* on a list of those who are being vetted? There's a difference, because we might not be getting the full list of candidates.
After watching a lot of Schweitzer on YouTube the past few days, he's the only one I want for this job. Simply put: I want Schweitzer to be President someday. I can't believe we've had a state governor this good for several years and I never saw him in action until recently (I live overseas, and have no access to C-SPAN or Sunday morning talk shows).
If Schweitzer is really not in the running, then I can be happy with Biden as well. Sibelius is solid but boring, and I want a charisma emphasizer with this VP choice.
Two points on the GOP search:
1. Portman will not deliver Ohio for McCain. He was a Congressman from around Cincinnati, not a guy who had a wider constituency from a statewide office election.
2. I strongly doubt Romney can deliver Michigan for McCain.
3. Is it just me, or has Tim Pawlenty dropped from radar recently?
in the spirit of Pete Kent I note that TX has gone from McCain + 13 as of 6/2 to only +8 on 7.30. Clearly TX is trending toward Obama - by the end of October he will have overtaken McCain.
And in Utah, McCain's lead has slipped from +35 (5/16) to only +19 6/19). Gee, that 16% in just over one month. McCain is demonstrably falling apart.
Let's not forget FL, which went from McCain+10 (5/19) to Obama + 2 7/22 - and that's the same pollster.
See what fun you can have when you cherry-pick polls.
BTW, despite the headline on the Pew poll, Obama still leads by more than the MOE. Essentially there has been no significant change in the race since early June. One candidate goes up a bit, then goes down and so on.
But Obama has held a lead of from 2-5% since early June. As people who actually know something about polling have consistently pointed out, the polls are subject to random error, to errors caused by pollster methodology (which is bigger now that shortly before the election), to short term fluctuations caused by short term events impacting upon low information voters and to other sources of error. Go back and read Rasmussen's discussion comparing the tracking polls both with Paty ID weighting and without it.
We are in a steady state which is slightly perturbed by small ripples. People looking to discern messages in the poll numbers now are fooling themselves - absent a large jump which sustains itself for more than week (and I don't think that's going to happen, if it does at all, until the middle of September or later.
As a native Alaskan, I can attest that Palin's mini-scandal over her firing of the Commissioner of Public Safety has deepened in the recent weeks, as her replacement stepped down after just two weeks on the job after reports of previous sexual harassment surfaced. Now, the administration is under fire for awarding their failed replacement a $10,000 severance package for two weeks of work, while they gave the legitimate Commissioner nothing of the sort after firing him for (allegedly) personal reasons.
Additionally, the conservative movement in Alaska absolutely loathes the Palin administration; the charge that she doesn't manage the state, but rather, her approval ratings, has some serious weight to it. Thus far, she's governed like a populist Democrat with some popular social conservatism thrown in for good measure. The consensus among conservatives in the state is that fiscal responsibility and transparency have been traded for populism and popularity. Whether one buys this or not, I don't think Palin can be considered a serious contender any longer.
I would like to believe that - but I thought that there was a bigger group of people knowing the choice - not 4-5 but maybe 10, including the VP herself. And orginaizing the convention would have been a first step into a prominent, a top party position.
Well, it seems the speakers for each day will be revealed each day. So we will know the whole schedule in 2 days, and Obama returns next weekend. When is Michael Phelps´ last race? We will know everything the following day.
Bayh is getting rather bad press in the left-leaning media. I think it would be a step too far to the center (the perception of it). Biden on the other hand is liked quite a lot, although both of them voted for the Iraq war. But if Obama wanted foreign policy credentials, why did he go on his "World Tour" then?
Well we can at least safely say that the convention planners must have known the VP short list, and thus have given everyone one of them a speaking slot. Then my guess is that this short list was the Kaine, Bayh, Biden, Sebelius list. But Kaine is a shot down I fear. (Warner supposedly refused to hand over last-minute-vetting information - ok, if that´s true the decision is still not made, but it could be that there are favorites and each of them has a weakness, so they would take their favorite only if they can´t find the one and only perfect VP, who could have been Warner.)
Rule #1 - Be qualified to be president.
Rule #2 - Do no harm in election.
Rule #3 - Don't be annoying to Mr. Obama.
I think #3 eliminates most people. As for rule #2, I feel like Jack Reed does the least harm. Obama seems to like him. But he'd have to decline the nomination for his senate seat and gamble his employment on an Obama win.
No one likes Romney outside of the far right, and people will really hate him after the VP debate.
The far right isn't all that happy with him either. He was a fairly moderate governor of MA and then did a complete flipflop on nearly every important issue before running for president. I'm not sure they entirely trust him.
Plus, we need to remember how much of the far right is represented by evangelicals. Many of them are very suspicious of mormons. I don't support this kind of religious discrimination...but lets be honest, its there.
For a variety of reasons, I think Romney would hurt more than help McCain.
Graham said...
Matt J.H., where did you read that Schweitzer is not being vetted? Or did you only see him *not* on a list of those who are being vetted? There's a difference, because we might not be getting the full list of candidates.
Graham,, I really like Schweitzer. I think he's a moderate democrat who's more interested in good governing than ideology, and he appears an Energy expert. A lot of people think he may be President one day, he may be. But the Obama campaign would want to circulate his name some if he were truly being vetted just to see the reaction as was done with Sebelius and more recently Gov. Kaine.
There has been no floating of his name or no chatter to reporters. Reporters don't know who the pick will be but they know who's near the top. We know Kaine, Biden, Bhye and Sebelius were the main focus noted in multiple sources. Thats not to say there won't be a surprise, but a surprise will be a known quantity on the national stage for Obama.
The voters want change but theres always too much of a good thing. Two relative unknowns on the same ticket, one being AA from Hawaii and Indonesia, would be a lot for voters to swallow. We have no worries about Obama, but many do. He must ease those fears, so a nice safe nationally known politician is in order. Hillary, Biden, or Byhe.
I spent part of my childhood growing up in Michigan, in George Romney's (Mitt's father's) hometown in fact. It's one of the highest income per capita townships in the country and most people there are strong fiscal conservatives, which is why Mitt did well in the Michigan primary. Some of the people might have fond memories of Papa Romney, but come on, the guy was Governor four decades ago.
Romney's breed of conservatism resonates well with the Republican base there, but I doubt Mitt on the ticket will really help McCain too much because the people that like Romney were going to vote for McCain anyway. If anything, Romney might bring in some fundraising dollars but it's so close to the conventions (and thus the official end of the primary election) that I doubt it will make that much difference.
My shortlist...
Gov. Brian Schweitzer
Gen. Wes;ley Clark
Sen. Joe Biden
If you haven't already, you should check out Biden's Democratic Debate clips on YouTube - hilarious!
I didn't watch most of those dabates, but judging from what I saw, Biden easily won most of them. If he was from a swing state, he'd be my first choice for VP.
PeteKent said...
"Obama has abandoned every principle in this race and stands for nothing. Why not pick her and get elected? Is there anything else that matters to him?"
What about McCrypt Keeper? Taxes, Torture, Iraq (timetables), Religious Right (Agents of Intollerance, anyone?), etc, etc, etc...
And didn't McFlip-Flop say he'd run a positive campaign based on the issues? Paris-Britney? celebrity? Hmmm...
You're a moron, Pete, albeit an amusing one.
porridge, Pete Kent is odious but amusingly so. His reasoning is all backward. If Kansas -a red state, let us call it- deems Sebelius suitable for its governorship, surely independents and moderate Republicans who make up the swing constituencies whether in Virginia, Ohio, or Florigan (spot the fake state name) ..well, maybe you can now put 2 and 2 together for yourselves. On a sidepoint, having the gov of kansas ties in well with Obama's mother coming from there- an easy biographical ad sell.
At this moment, i think Biden is the good and safe pick for Obama.
He has the experience, great attack dog and very good debater.
For the older democrats, Obama need a "old" VP who has experience.
So much LOL at anyone looking at that ridiculous Survey USA (R) poll of Washington - - which still shows Obama with a sizeable lead - - and concludes that it's bad news for Obama, that it has something to do with the Russia/Georgia conflict, etc. Ohmigosh. Too funny. Pssst - - few people in the U.S. know or care about the Georgian Republic, and those that do, well, they're sophisticated enough to see that McSame came off like a complete maniac, to the right of, incredibly, THE DUMBYASS ADMINISTRATION.
Hilarious.
And, um, the Pew Poll shows Obama leading outside of the MOE.
Wow, this is a desperate bunch.
As for the VP selection, it should be Biden if Obama is way of Hillary. No divisiveness, massive foreign policy (and judiciary) cred, he is a killer debater, and he is the original attack dog.
Anyone trumpeting Sarah Palin for McClown's VP is . . . probably the same person who thought the WA poll "movement" was due to Georgia.
While I don't think the case for Hillary is ridiculous, I don't think it's very good. Some problems at least as big as the "Hillary rallies the GOP base" and "Bill cannot be controlled during the campaign" are these...
1. As someone already mentioned above, the Clintons thrive on chaos.
2. More importantly, I think it's far from clear that the Clintons really want Obama to win. If Hillary wins as VP, then Obama gets the nomination in 2012 as well, meaning that Hillary has to wait until 2016 to run for President again, at a time when she'll be almost as old as McCain is now.
By contrast, if Hillary runs as VP with Obama and the ticket loses, she gets a pretty sweet deal... She gets all the media attention as VP candidate, then she gets to start a "told you so, the ticket should have been reversed" whisper campaign. And then Hillary is the strong frontrunner for 2012.
At a minimum, you ought to have a running mate who definitely, without a doubt, wants you to win.
”Not really. The convention schedulers and Obama's VP team are entirely separate and segregated”.
True that a speaking slot wouldn't necessarily rule out the speaker as a VP choice. But Ambinder's analysis as to why uses even more flawed analysis. Granted, very few people know. But the few who do know aren't going to roll the dice on convention scheduling with the VP pick. Plouffe or Axelrod can ensure the schedule is the schedule they want without giving away the VP choice to anyone.
Matt J.H., I think your points about Schweitzer are completely plausible. But, when I watch Schweitzer...
My first reaction is "I love this guy."
My second reaction is "white guys are going to love this guy."
Now, I'm a white guy myself, but also happen to be a liberal world-traveling university professor white guy. I'm part of Obama's natural demographic homeland, and have never felt an ounce of suspicion about him.
I agree with your point that many people *are* suspicious of Obama. The question is how best to allay that suspicion. Is it really with a familiar, solid national face? Maybe.
But it could also be with a "liberal John Wayne" figure like Schweitzer. Just look at those Ron Paul people on YouTube responding to Schweitzer's anti-Real ID tirade like catnip.
That said, I can live with Biden too.
abiding biden: isn't it like Dukakis picking Bentsen? And that worked a treat.
cowbat, help me out with the Bentsen/Biden similarity, because I don't see it.
Bentsen was a slow-talking, patrician Texan meant to counter the Dukakis image as just another liberal New England stiff.
Biden is a charismatic attack dog and a bit of a loose cannon, nothing much like Bentsen as far as I can see, except that both were/are powerful Senators.
Hair brained theory, that just might be true. The "leak" of a Colin Powell endorsement and a speking role at the convention were interesting yeaterday, particulalry since they came from Bill Kristol. What does this mean? What does the Wed. night as "national security" night at the convention, which coincides with the VP speech, mean?
Could it mean Powell is the VP choice? Picking Powell would be genius as it would bring moderate independents to OPbama and fix his percieved national security hole. Two black men on one ticket, once unheard of - now genius!
Is Powell the VP????
Schweitzer looks and sounds like an Oaf. Perhaps he can bring 3 electoral votes to the ticket.
The NRA attacked him today for suggesting that Obama is pro-guns. He will be a lightening rod of criticism for Obama and the contrast will show how left of center Obama is.
Obama needs to pick Sibelius to show how post-partisan and independent (of the Clintons) he is. What's he got to lose? Three votes in Chappaqua?
McCain would be wise to pick Rob Portman who brings heartland values, a sharp mind, strength on economic matters. As a former Congressman from Cincinnati, head of OMB and US Trade Representative he has an enviable resume and comes without baggage.
Even in a losing effort, the GOP wins with Portman on the ticket. he will challenge and beat Ted Strickland in 2010.
Last year I was hoping that Obama would tap Colin Powell for VP. That would be amazing and really create an instant breakthrough in our bipartisan system. I think that it is still highly unlikely, but that would possibly one of the most groundbreaking events in our political history.
However, with the theme of the night of the VP speech being "Securing America's Future", I find it odd that it is the same phrase verbatim as the slogan for Wesley Clark's WESpac. Wesley Clark would be a smart pick and would effectively sweep the only leg McCain really has up on Obama. As a national figure and former presidential candidate he is ready for primetime and he will generate alot of enthusiasm going foward.
The other picks that I will really be excited about would be Sebelius, and Biden. I really like Sebelius and think she is the most compatible short lister, but with the current state of the world. Obama MUST give America a sense of security and strength, and Wesley Clark or Joe Biden could provide that assurance
Pete, you've really got to stop saying Schweitzer "looks and sounds like an oaf." That's three times in the last two days you've repeated the same silly line. It makes you seem so... elitist.
Schweitzer is what America has needed for a long time... a real and decent man who puts country ahead of self, and wades into the swamp with a sincere goal of making things better.
And he looks and sounds like exactly what he is... Middle America.
Veep
I don't think he will pick Hillary. Not only can't they abide one another but he can't have a situation where the spouse of his Running Mate can command any newscycle on any day of the week with a single comment.
I don't think he can pick Sibelius. Putting aside the facts that she doesn't bolster Obama in areas where he is weak and that it is highly unlikely she can deliver Kansas, it would drive Hillary's loyalists (and no doubt hRC herself) beserk to have a woman other than her on the ticket.
Schweitzer is from a State with only three EV's and Clinton only carried it by 10,000 votes in 1992 with the help of Ross Perot's 107,000.
I think he will either go the "bolster the credentials" route and pick Biden or Clark or go the "secure a 'must have' or 'swing' state" route and pick Kaine, Warner or Strikland. Warner wants to be Senator. Ohio might be tough even with Strickland, who backed Hillary. It just looks more and more like Kaine to me.
:)
HUFF TODAY
Hey Stephen, great article!
The best argument for Schweitzer is the fact that energy is THE most important issue on the horizon right now... and I think Obama is very much aware of that.
1) First and foremost, Colin Powell is a frankly unrealistic choice. Two black candidates is going to be a disaster.
2) Like Powell, Sebelius is a non-starter in my view. She is similar to Obama, but she brings no new dynamism, no new votes plus the fact she is female might be too much for some. Obama already has his crosses to carry, he shouldnt unnecessarily add more.
3) I would have liked Clinton on the ticket because even though she is divisive and in my view, a monster, she will deliver Ohio, Florida and Michigan, easy! However I understand why Obama probably shouldn't pick her. As I said the Clintons are "dangerous" power hungry people.
4) Kaine is not that popular in VA, and the fact he was mouthing off too much a week ago means he knows he isnt in the running.
5) Schweitzer: Small state yes, but his effect will be felt outside Montana. I like him.
Basically, I think the choice that will help Obama win the election (and that is what matters the most)in order are:
1) Clinton
2) Strickland
3) Schweitzer
4) Rendell
Number 1 is off the table.
War, I was wondering about Powell as VP a couple of weeks ago too. It would be genius. Unstoppable. The two most popular AA politicians in America, and of course plenty of security gravitas and international respect if Powell were to join the ticket.
I was a big Wesley Clark guy in 2004 when it was just on paper. Once I saw him in action, I saw a lot of inopportune weirdness going on in the things he would say. Clark is obviously an *intelligent* man from his life history, but sometimes seems almost airheaded in his political cluelessness.
People keep talking about delivering states in this thread, but I thought the collective wisdom had evolved past that. Unless there's a slam dunk state-tip opportunity (such as if Mark Warner could have been convinced, thereby delivering Virginia), I thought the new conventional wisdom was that VP = "message emphasis", a la Clinton's successful choice of Gore over such "balance" figures as Lee Hamilton in '92.
Hey, why has Bill Bradley's name never come up for VP? He's got the gravitas, the crowd-pleasing NBA experience, and the financial wizardry in tough economic times. Sure he's boring, but so are Bayh and Sebelius. And Bradley has unquestioned integrity.
If you watch Schweitzer and are unimpressed by his presence (policy disagreements are always possible, of course), then I don't have much to say to you. You're either playing petty contrarian games, or have a mind constructed so differently from my own that communication is no longer possible. PeteKent probably goes under category 1, to judge from his trolling history.
fredogah, Ted Strickland gave us the Sherman quite awhile ago, so it won't be him either, any more than Webb.
I really liked David Brooks' suggestion that Obama choose Tom Daschle for veep so that he could get his initiatives through an unruly Democratic Congress. Does anyone know why he hasn't even been in the running? Maybe because he lost his Senate seat?
BTW, you guys at 538 are such hypergeeks! And you are incredible! I am so addicted to this amazing site. Well done!!!
Veep Repubs
I have no idea whom McCain should pick other than it should be someone who is a lot younger than him and who bolsters him on the economy or someone who brings a state, the loss of which would be fatal to Obama.
I also don't think he should pick someone who hasn't been tested in the heat of national or big media politics (the Dan Quayle factor), so, for me that rules out Jindal and Salin, though the latter is appealing: woman, young, Catholic, special needs kid; she would shake up the race, but they would have to vet her very carefully especially in light of some recent stories.
Other than that, I don't know. Romney helps on the economy, might be worth a point or two in a close NH and might (might!) help a point or two in MI, but I agree with those who say that the latter is probably overblown. The problem, of course is that he's Mitt Romney.
If PA is in play and if the base wouldn't go nuts, then Ridge would be a good pick, but I don't think the former is true while I do think the latter might be the case.
Otherwise, it's a decision I'm glad I don't have to make.
fredogah:
I like your analysis. Only disagree on Rendell. One, Obama's inner circle detests him with a passion--I think it goes beyond his support for HRC. Two, I seriously doubt that PA is in play to the point that he'd use the pick with that in mind. Three, he doesn't bolster Obama on security.
Mister James.
Re Daschle.
Nope, not as Veep. No state. Too liberal. Couldn't get re-elected to the Senate even as Leader. Not known as a national security guy.
But, for the very same reasons that you cite, I would bet a beer (the most I ever bet) that Tom Daschle is Obama's first Chief of Staff and that he will be a powerful Chief of Staff in the mold of John Sununu, Jim Baker and Leon Panetta, not a (highly) trusted gatekeeper who makes sure that Dick Cheney and Karl Rove get all the face time they want but otherwise keeps the trains running on time (i.e., no screwups), like Andy Card or Josh Brolin.
Graham re Powell, Clark, Bradley, Schweitzer.
Interesting analysis, but I disagree.
Powell. Have we forgotten so soon that Colin Powell was the front man for the Iraq War and, in my opinion, failed at critical moments to stand up to Cheney and his band of neocon nuts when he was the only person in the Administration with the stature to do so? I just can't forgive him for that and therefore think that even his endorsement of Obama is a mixed blessing. But, I will be the first to admit that my view might not be "reasonable" on this subject.
I don't think the CW has shifted from message reenforcement to state help as the primary emphasis in Obama's Veep selection, yet at least. If Obama is convinced in the next week or so that the IA, CO, NM strategy (hold Kerry's states and those three give him 273 EV's) might not work and that he needs to put a red/purple/whatever state in serious play, then he would pick Kaine.
If he is convinced, however, that he can pull off the 273 strategy and that everything else is gravy, I think he goes with Clark or Biden (my bet is Clark). They won't bring votes, but they bolster him in his (perceived) weak area and Clark especially is an insurance policy against public anxiety if an exogenous event shifts the focus to national security in the last two weeks.
I've never watched Schweitzer or heard him speak, so this isn't personal in any way. Montana only has three EV's. Clinton needed 107,000 Ross Perot votes to carry the state by 10,000 votes in 1992. He doesn't help on National Security. I just don't see it.
As for Dollar Bill. His campaign and demise in 2000 were so bad that I don't think any Democratic Party operatives will want to bet on him. Plus, he's just not all that well-liked in the Party, and that counts for a lot. He'll be a great surrogate, though, and I'd expect to see his name in play as a possible Secretary of State.
Pwell had the guts to resign over the lies, and call them lies.
Rice has no guts.
Powell for VP!
Powell could be amazing-- a true game changer. Even just his endorsement would be.
I doubt he wants the VP role though. Talk about someone who's already too important for the job. If we're not sure Clinton could humble herself enough, I'm not sure why Colin Powell would even take it. Plus if he was getting ready to be VP he could have at least hinted through surrogates he's happy about Obama. When pressed for his opinion, he's played it very coy recently.
The renewed buzz for Colin Powell as VP takes me by surprise. I have to say that my opinion (as a libertarian-leaning moderate) and the opinions of most of the people I know (mostly liberals, but also some libertarians and neocons) regarding Powell is, "Aw man, he was a cool guy, I liked him, but he kind of blew it with that whole Iraq thing."
If Obama wants to emphasize his message of "change we can believe in"...I don't think he's going to want to pick anyone associated with the Bush administration fiasco-fest.
the opinions of most of the people I know (mostly liberals, but also some libertarians and neocons) regarding Powell is, "Aw man, he was a cool guy, I liked him, but he kind of blew it with that whole Iraq thing."
You're right. If Powell is selected, he would have to tell his story to America in a way that would change the prevailing opinion. He has quietly shared pieces of it already, but his introductory VP speech would have to take us through the whole thing, behind the scenes: how he thought the idea of invading Iraq was insane from day one, how he tried to stop Bush from doing it, how Bush took advantage of Powell's loyalty and good name to sell his lies, how Powell resigned as soon as he thought it was appropriate to do so, and how he thinks the entire thing was a giant disaster.
The story won't persuade everyone, of course (after all, Powell deserves a certain amount of blame) but I think it would have great resonance with the large number of voters (moderate Dems, independents, and many in the GOP) who initially supported the war but now feel betrayed by how Bush misled them and mismanaged the whole thing. Thus Obama/Powell would be a "unity ticket" not only in Dem-GOP terms, but also in that it would represent those of us who were antiwar from the very beginning (Obama publicly, Powell privately) as well as those who felt betrayed by the Bushies after having stood by them initially (Powell).
But as a Powell for VP fan myself, I have to admit it's really just a fantasy choice. I saw a recent article where Powell was vigorously denying rumors that he might even speak at the Denver convention. Oh well. But hey... we can enjoy our fantasies, right? ;-)
Speaking of fantasies, anyone who thinks WA might go for McCain is also living in some sort of dream world. Sorry guys, but WA is no longer a presidential swing state. The race for governor may end up being very close, but the only way McCain takes the state is if he has a nationwide landslide like 1984... that's the last time the Evergreen State went red, and it has only moved to the left since then.
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