Marc Ambinder raises a simple but important point about the Democratic veepstakes:
Item: the Democratic National Convention Committee confirms that Gov. Kathleen Sebelius has been given a Tuesday night speaking slot. Evidence that she won't be chosen as vice president?It's been a lot of fun, but we've probably been guilty of overinterpretation. Having been a partner in a small business, I can attest to the fact that rumors are contagious, and that the risk of leaks is an exponential function of the number of people let in on the secret.
Not really. The convention schedulers and Obama's VP team are entirely separate and segregated.
The fact is that if the convention planners and schedulers in Denver know the identity of Obama's Vice Presidential selection, that means a lot of people know. And if a lot of people know, that means the media would know.
But the media doesn't know.
Ergo, not very many people do know. Perhaps only some combination of Obama, Axelrod, Plouffe, Gibbs, and the candidate him or herself, if the candidate has been chosen at all.
Ergo, we know nothing.
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New Survey USA poll on Washington:
Presidential race:
Obama 51
McCain 44
Governor race:
Gregoire 50
Rossi 48
Obama will be untrue to his gut feelings if he chooses Bayh over Sebelius.
She has been a true liberal post-partisan leader, sticking to her principles on issues California liberals would crumble.
Obama will prove he is much more of a tactician than people think by choosing Bayh
Warner would be a great choice too, does anyone know wtf he is refusing the VP spot?
Sebelius>Warner>Bayh
Having said all that I would not be unhappy with Bayh.
No, it's going to be Biden, if not him, Bayh, if not him, Kaine, if not him, Sebelius, in not him...
Wait, where did this shortlist come from? Is it really the shortlist? Maybe none of them are in contention? Maybe they are, but 5 others are also? Etc. etc. etc.
The wait is killing me.
Ooh. Hadn't thought of this. Ambinder raises a great point here.
Bayh, Biden, Clark, Clinton, Kaine, Nunn, Richardson, Schweitzer, Sebelius. Decisions decisions. If I were to guess, I'd say Bayh and Sebelius are the likeliest, but any one of those folks could get the nod.
Still hoping for Schweitzer.
Who knows about Obama's gut. All I know (and I know bubkes) is that my gut is telling me Biden or Clark. I'd be happy with either, but happier with Biden. I think he'd be a great choice and he would eat whoever McBush chooses for breakfast. (Imagine a debate between Biden and Romney. That I'd love to see.)
go on survey...now please gimme a good poll on Indiana...
Liking that WA poll!
It will not be Bayh. He has been amrginalized and shot down in the MSN for being too pro-war. I think he is toast.
I am hoping Obama picks Sibelius. Nothing could be worse for party unity. KA is also so totally out of reach that she will not add anything electorally to the ticket. Oh year, she once took a pee in youngstown; that should clinch Obama for the ticket.
It won't be Biden. He is too much the top dog for Obama.
His only hope: Mrs. Clinton herself. Obama has abandoned every principle in this race and stands for nothing. Why not pick her and get elected? Is there anything else that matters to him?
McCain's smart pick remains Rob Portman. Ohio, Ohio, Ohio!
petekent what about mike huckabee? he is very strong with evangelicals...with him McCain can lock the south and gain ground in some midwest battlegrounds ( Ohio and Missouri on the top )...
Warner is not going to be VP because we need that second senate seat.
Without Warner running for it, it becomes a much more difficult turnover.
Portman won't give McCain Ohio, Pete. Ohio has had native sons elected PRESIDENT. Now, if McCain puts a guy from some state that has never sent a native son into the Oval Office or Observatory Circle on the ticket, he'll see a big spike in that state; picking a representative - not even someone with a statewide constituency - from a state that's contributed its fair share of boys to the office of (V)POTUS isn't going to make enough of an impact.
i agree if Obama picks HRC GOP is in trouble...
Silifi, hopefully that's why Bayh won't be VP either.
And sure, the Dems lose a governorship if Schweitzer or Sebelius is on the ticket, but governors aren't part of the hotly contested federal legislative branch.
If Obama picks HRC we're ALL in trouble.
Another good pick for McCain can be Alaska governor Sarah Palin ( with Jindal and Huckabee the fresh face of the GOP party )
Ohio isn't enough for McCain. As an Obama supporter, I think Romney is the scariest choice, just because it makes Michigan a gigantic question mark.
Sarah Palin is in a middle of a mini-controversy of alleged cronyism. I doubt she would be VP (she is also relatively unknown out of AK). She's also been spouting so pro-Obama rhetoric, so.....
Q: Why is Warner refusing the VP slot?
A. Because he can do more good for the Democratic Party in Virginia by winning that Senate seat. Even without Warner, Obama is running dead-even in Virginia. And even if he doesn't win there, it doesn't appear that Virginia is absolutely essential to an Obama victory.
So why pick Warner? Or Kaine, for that matter? I haven't seen much evidence at all that either one of them helps outside of VA - for that matter, I don't see that any VP choice is good for much more than half-a-million votes.
The only reason conservatives want Hillary is because she's the only VP pick who can supercharge the GOP base which, recently, has not exactly been energized.
If Obama is serious about governing, he ought to pick Sebelius who, based on her record as governor, would've made a better president than McCain, HRC or Barack. God knows, we need some competence in there. She's the gutsy pick but are Americans ready for a black-white woman ticket? The safe choice is going to be Biden or Bayh. Kaine's a lightweight.
As for why we know they're on the shortlist, it is because they've all been asked to hand over their financial stuff. Or at least, they haven't explicitly said that the campaign has not asked them for their papers. Rob Portman hasn't been:
"Portman has been rumored to be on John McCain's list of potential running mates, but says he hasn't been asked for the financial information required as part of a candidate's background check, and doesn't expect to be.
'I'm happy to help him, here in Indiana and around the country, but he's got a lot of great choices,' Portman says."
Doesn't look like it's going to be Portman b/c its this late and he's had no contact from the VP search team.
I think Romney is repugnant enough to anyone who isn't a shrieking neoconservative that he'll actually hurt McCain everywhere except for Michigan and maybe Nevada and some states that were going to be bright crimson anyway. McCain can use Romney to win Michigan and Nevada, and there's a bunch of nice EVs, but that doesn't really help him if Romney pushes Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado into Obama's column.
No one likes Romney outside of the far right, and people will really hate him after the VP debate.
Sebelius, it will be. She helps in CO, OH, MO IN. It's about the geography, folks.
yes i read something about Sarah Palin mini-scandal...in my opinion nothing to be worried...
my shortlist for GOP VP is:
1 - Mike Huckabee
2 - Sarah Palin
3 - John Engler ( former michigan governor...he can help to pick that state )